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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    How many ‘homes’ does Jenrick have? Surely home is where your kids go to school?

    Sounds like a home in the constituency and a family home.
    No, constituency is Newark in Notts.
    Yes, the article says he has a home in Newark, and moved from that to his home with his family.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/10/politics-latest-news-minister-admits-travelling-150-miles-london/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    How typically Borissian, triumphal entry to resurrection avoiding that unpleasant death bit in the middle.

    Yes, never does the hard bit. We've all met them.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Cambridge police patrolling the non-essential aisles.
    https://twitter.com/cambridgecops/status/1248527425379713025?s=21

    It's curious they are still trying to enforce such a thing when it's been made clear already that is beyond what is required by the law. Do they not read the news?
    What is a non essential aisle.?
    Exhibit A - the central aisle at Lidl

    aka The Aisle of Shite......
    They’ve got rid of the aisle of shite in Aldi

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/aldi-apology-special-buys-removed-18069646

    PS - Am I the only working class Northerner to have never set foot in an Aldi or Lidl?
    If you want to.continue to pay 30 per cent more for your shop... keep avoiding aldi and lidl
    What Aldi and Lidl have done is to persuade people to buy off-brand, which for decades we have avoided. It is the one contributing secret of their success that is rarely discussed.
    Very true.. but its a bit hit and miss.. i wiuodnt buy their coffee but tgeir biscuits fir cheese are lovely. Booze slways good. Fruit and veg excellent the salmon is lovely tooo
    Chilli Non Carne is a nice meat free dish from Aldi
    Hahaha
    One I ate earlier! (This year)

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,259
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    How many ‘homes’ does Jenrick have? Surely home is where your kids go to school?

    Well, he's an MP so will have one in London and one in his constituency, for starters.
    And the one he claims is the family home in Hertfordshire which is not his constituency I believe.
    That's not unusual either, many MPs don't come from their constituencies originally.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    How many ‘homes’ does Jenrick have? Surely home is where your kids go to school?

    Well, he's an MP so will have one in London and one in his constituency, for starters.
    And the one he claims is the family home in Hertfordshire which is not his constituency I believe.
    I'm shocked an MP doesn't consider their constituency their permanent home. Shocked! :o

    :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020

    Mr. JohnL, the guidance specifically permits medicine and food deliveries.

    I am uncertain why you consider Anna Soubry's apparent comments to have weight.

    If nothing else, they prove Jenrick's long leisurely drives round the country are a legitimate story.
    His claim is his family reside in Hereford half of every week under normal circumstances and have been there since before the lockdown. He left London after the last time he was required to do the #10 press conference and has been there ever since.

    He has dropped off some medications to his parents.

    Unless he is lying, not much evidence of "lots of long leisurely drives".
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    kinabalu said:

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    Most apt for Good Friday.

    He (almost) died to save us all.
    How typically Borissian, triumphal entry to resurrection avoiding that unpleasant death bit in the middle.
    Which pb.com tory is this?

    https://twitter.com/RyanFilmmaker/status/1248364793322450944
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    kle4 said:

    Cambridge police patrolling the non-essential aisles.
    https://twitter.com/cambridgecops/status/1248527425379713025?s=21

    It's curious they are still trying to enforce such a thing when it's been made clear already that is beyond what is required by the law. Do they not read the news?
    What is a non essential aisle.?
    Exhibit A - the central aisle at Lidl

    aka The Aisle of Shite......
    They’ve got rid of the aisle of shite in Aldi

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/aldi-apology-special-buys-removed-18069646

    PS - Am I the only working class Northerner to have never set foot in an Aldi or Lidl?
    If you want to.continue to pay 30 per cent more for your shop... keep avoiding aldi and lidl
    What Aldi and Lidl have done is to persuade people to buy off-brand, which for decades we have avoided. It is the one contributing secret of their success that is rarely discussed.
    Very true.. but its a bit hit and miss.. i wiuodnt buy their coffee but tgeir biscuits fir cheese are lovely. Booze slways good. Fruit and veg excellent the salmon is lovely tooo
    I don't shop at Aldi or Lidl, but my parents do at the latter. My impression is that meat is very good, fruit and veg produce is pretty crap, there is limited choice, but some great 'gems'.
    Amongst the lettuce?
    Let's try and avoid this particular conversational iceberg.
    Cos why?
    Cos we should 'leave' it alone.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    How many ‘homes’ does Jenrick have? Surely home is where your kids go to school?

    Well, he's an MP so will have one in London and one in his constituency, for starters.
    And the one he claims is the family home in Hertfordshire which is not his constituency I believe.
    Here not Hert.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,604
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    FF43 said:

    JonathanD said:

    isam said:
    So successfully, the policy has also been implemented across Europe.
    A comparison between the UK death rates and Germany show that's not the case. However best to ascribe the UKs failure to political incompetence rather than active malice.
    Why is Germany the baseline rather than Italy, Spain, France, Holland, Switzerland, Denmark etc? All that shows is at least one country is doing better than us.
    I would say the UK response to the coronavirus has been average to poor in European terms, which collectively has done better than the US but worse than East Asia.

    I would put the UK in a group of countries including France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Netherlands. Another group of countries including Germany, most of Scandinavia, some of East and Central Europe and Ireland have done better.
    Scandinavia, East & Central Europe have much lower population density and are less inter connected than UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Netherlands. The virus hasnt spread as much to rural areas in those countries either. Id imagine the former group also has better levels of fitness and lower levels of obesity.

    It seems much more likely to me the variations are primarily down to factors other than policy.
    Yes - Germany and Austria aren't really modern Western industrial countries. There are just a few small remote villages, whose inhabitants spend most of the time tilling the land and rarely even see another. They're more likely to catch the virus from a horse than a human! You can't compare what happens there to the experience of proper countries.
    Comparing the UK with Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, Denmark would be fine. We would be average or better so far.
    Deaths/million pop:

    Spain: 339
    Italy: 302
    Belge: 260
    France: 187
    Netherlands: 140
    UK: 118
    Switz: 111
    Sweden: 79
    Ireland: 53
    Denmark: 41
    Portugal: 40
    Austria: 35
    Germany: 31

    Middling, I'd say

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Still far from over, and with Heathrow hoovering in potential new cases daily, time will tell.
    Why doesn't someone, at the daily Press conference, have the wit to ask why there are no controls at Heathrow (etc).
    How many passengers are coming in daily?
    Before this kicked off it was over 106,000 international arrivals per day. So even if traffic is down 90% that's still over 10,000 a day. Singapore has simply banned all foreigners from arriving or transiting and returning Singapore nationals are quarantined for 14 days. But there are still 3 SQ flights a week from Singapore to London (used to be 21).
    Do those air traffic numbers account for the number of bums in seats, or is it plane movements? Also cargo planes will still be flying etc. I'd be surprised if 10,000 people were arriving into Heathrow daily.
    I've been trying to find actual numbers of people flying, and there's very little information out there.

    Anecdotal evidence suggests that flights not specifically booked as rescue flights are flying almost empty of pax, but passenger planes are being flown with plenty of cargo on board to keep supply chains running. Massive numbers of planes are parked up, and crews furloughed at many airlines.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    New moths for the year last night included Waved Umber, Lunar Marbled Brown and Brimstone Moth.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    I see Cambridgeshire police have deleted that tweet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    Sir Peter Viggers has died. He will be forever known as the one who claimed for the duck house. Apparently had motor neuron disease.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    edited April 2020
    Mr. 86, I'm sure that'll solve it. After all, nobody on the internet ever takes screenshots or remembers things that happened in the past.

    Edited extra bit: although at least the pushback did have the desired effect.

    Could it be that Twitter is becoming actually useful?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    We’ve cosied up to China for too long BY NICK TIMOTHY

    https://unherd.com/2020/04/weve-cosied-up-to-china-for-too-long/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    Is pollution the reason some places are more affected by Covid-19 than others? Lombardy, Wuhan and London are bad I think

    “Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.”

    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home

    People have mentioned that BAMEs are disproportionately dying from Covid19. Could it be because they tend to live in cities with bad pollution problems rather than any genetic/racial disposition?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is pollution the reason some places are more affected by Covid-19 than others? Lombardy, Wuhan and London are bad I think

    “Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.”

    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home

    People have mentioned that BAMEs are disproportionately dying from Covid19. Could it be because they tend to live in cities with bad pollution problems rather than any genetic/racial disposition?
    They also have higher rates of diabetes and heart disease. There is a genetic disposition for that.

    I am sure things such as more likely to be living in high density housing, in high density urban with higher pollution environments, higher rates of comorbidities, and more likely to be working customer facing jobs.

    And finally, religion. Going to organized religious events, they are a key transport vector.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Mr. 86, I'm sure that'll solve it. After all, nobody on the internet ever takes screenshots or remembers things that happened in the past.

    Edited extra bit: although at least the pushback did have the desired effect.

    Could it be that Twitter is becoming actually useful?

    It's generally quite good at revealing numpties in general.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is pollution the reason some places are more affected by Covid-19 than others? Lombardy, Wuhan and London are bad I think

    “Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.”

    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home

    People have mentioned that BAMEs are disproportionately dying from Covid19. Could it be because they tend to live in cities with bad pollution problems rather than any genetic/racial disposition?
    Once the dust settles there should be an easy way to check this hypothesis because you can look at mortality rates in cities vs. rural areas and correct for ethnicity.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    Most apt for Good Friday.

    He (almost) died to save us all.
    How typically Borissian, triumphal entry to resurrection avoiding that unpleasant death bit in the middle.
    Which pb.com tory is this?

    https://twitter.com/RyanFilmmaker/status/1248364793322450944
    None of the ones that shop at Waitrose and fly first class obvs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    felix said:


    LOL

    Life truly has changed forever now I see that.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    https://www.facebook.com/andreaf142/videos/10222234809927546/?t=27

    There are worse things to endure than the British Police. :smiley:
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Isam, a dispassionate, objective look at the demographics and behaviours could prove very enlightening.

    I rather doubt we'll get that, though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    felix said:

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    Probably referring to the family tbf. I see the language Police are now determining how we refer to disease and illness. Too tedious.
    I had assumed after the initial 'furore' around being a fighter that the only people complaining would be those complaining about the initial complaints, but apparently there really are people complaining.

    In all seriousness, while our use of language can be problematic at times people really do go too far in the other direction treating some pretty casual or at worst careless uses of language as indicative of deeply appalling or awful character.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    Team 50+ year old fat blokes.

    Legend.

    Never in doubt. Told people he would be fine, didn't I? Also made a tenner by laying 2020 exit at 4 before they suspended the market. Smug city.

    My sense is that ICU was VERY precautionary, i.e. he was taken into there because of who he is. Quite right to do so, not making a sour little point about it, but it meant he was a great lay in that market (before they shut it down).

    Anyway, good news on many fronts. Boris lives, I land a shrewd bet, and - the biggie - I can stop calling him Boris.

    What's important now is that Johnson gets back to work asap and gets a grip on the situation. People are dying in numbers that just a few short weeks ago we would have described as scandalous.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is pollution the reason some places are more affected by Covid-19 than others? Lombardy, Wuhan and London are bad I think

    “Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.”

    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home

    People have mentioned that BAMEs are disproportionately dying from Covid19. Could it be because they tend to live in cities with bad pollution problems rather than any genetic/racial disposition?
    Once the dust settles there should be an easy way to check this hypothesis because you can look at mortality rates in cities vs. rural areas and correct for ethnicity.
    We have a census next year, albeit the results won't come out for 18 months or so.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    edit
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    isam said:


    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Cambridge police patrolling the non-essential aisles.
    https://twitter.com/cambridgecops/status/1248527425379713025?s=21

    It's curious they are still trying to enforce such a thing when it's been made clear already that is beyond what is required by the law. Do they not read the news?
    What is a non essential aisle.?
    Exhibit A - the central aisle at Lidl

    aka The Aisle of Shite......
    They’ve got rid of the aisle of shite in Aldi

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/aldi-apology-special-buys-removed-18069646

    PS - Am I the only working class Northerner to have never set foot in an Aldi or Lidl?
    If you want to.continue to pay 30 per cent more for your shop... keep avoiding aldi and lidl
    What Aldi and Lidl have done is to persuade people to buy off-brand, which for decades we have avoided. It is the one contributing secret of their success that is rarely discussed.
    Very true.. but its a bit hit and miss.. i wiuodnt buy their coffee but tgeir biscuits fir cheese are lovely. Booze slways good. Fruit and veg excellent the salmon is lovely tooo
    Chilli Non Carne is a nice meat free dish from Aldi
    Hahaha
    One I ate earlier! (This year)

    isam said:

    Is pollution the reason some places are more affected by Covid-19 than others? Lombardy, Wuhan and London are bad I think

    “Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.”

    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home

    Nice to see the science backs up my theory here when this epidemic broke badly in northern Italy after China.

    And you can see why India would just get on and do the lockdown on virtually no notice. Must be terrible what it could do there given the air quality issues.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Mr. Isam, a dispassionate, objective look at the demographics and behaviours could prove very enlightening.

    I rather doubt we'll get that, though.

    That is my worry. When it comes to health outcomes, we need to investigate all the factors, but it will be so easy to twist things for their own agenda i.e. screaming racism or using race to claim certain immigrant groups are putting undue pressure on our health service.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    FF43 said:

    JonathanD said:

    isam said:
    So successfully, the policy has also been implemented across Europe.
    A comparison between the UK death rates and Germany show that's not the case. However best to ascribe the UKs failure to political incompetence rather than active malice.
    Why is Germany the baseline rather than Italy, Spain, France, Holland, Switzerland, Denmark etc? All that shows is at least one country is doing better than us.
    I would say the UK response to the coronavirus has been average to poor in European terms, which collectively has done better than the US but worse than East Asia.

    I would put the UK in a group of countries including France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Netherlands. Another group of countries including Germany, most of Scandinavia, some of East and Central Europe and Ireland have done better.
    Scandinavia, East & Central Europe have much lower population density and are less inter connected than UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Netherlands. The virus hasnt spread as much to rural areas in those countries either. Id imagine the former group also has better levels of fitness and lower levels of obesity.

    It seems much more likely to me the variations are primarily down to factors other than policy.
    Yes - Germany and Austria aren't really modern Western industrial countries. There are just a few small remote villages, whose inhabitants spend most of the time tilling the land and rarely even see another. They're more likely to catch the virus from a horse than a human! You can't compare what happens there to the experience of proper countries.
    Comparing the UK with Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, Denmark would be fine. We would be average or better so far.
    Deaths/million pop:

    Spain: 339
    Italy: 302
    Belge: 260
    France: 187
    Netherlands: 140
    UK: 118
    Switz: 111
    Sweden: 79
    Ireland: 53
    Denmark: 41
    Portugal: 40
    Austria: 35
    Germany: 31

    Middling, I'd say

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Still far from over, and with Heathrow hoovering in potential new cases daily, time will tell.
    Why doesn't someone, at the daily Press conference, have the wit to ask why there are no controls at Heathrow (etc).
    How many passengers are coming in daily?
    Before this kicked off it was over 106,000 international arrivals per day. So even if traffic is down 90% that's still over 10,000 a day. Singapore has simply banned all foreigners from arriving or transiting and returning Singapore nationals are quarantined for 14 days. But there are still 3 SQ flights a week from Singapore to London (used to be 21).
    Do those air traffic numbers account for the number of bums in seats, or is it plane movements? Also cargo planes will still be flying etc. I'd be surprised if 10,000 people were arriving into Heathrow daily.
    I've been trying to find actual numbers of people flying, and there's very little information out there.

    Anecdotal evidence suggests that flights not specifically booked as rescue flights are flying almost empty of pax, but passenger planes are being flown with plenty of cargo on board to keep supply chains running. Massive numbers of planes are parked up, and crews furloughed at many airlines.
    I think that is about right

    There are loads of passenger planes parked up and on the ground.

    The accumulations per location can be quite high quite now.

    Cargo operations are doing very well I hear.

    That is not going to be the case for most European Airlines.

    BA for example generates circa 7% of normal revenues from cargo operations.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is pollution the reason some places are more affected by Covid-19 than others? Lombardy, Wuhan and London are bad I think

    “Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.”

    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home

    People have mentioned that BAMEs are disproportionately dying from Covid19. Could it be because they tend to live in cities with bad pollution problems rather than any genetic/racial disposition?
    I posted this yesterday:

    Black people in the UK are more likely to be overweight or obese, 72.8% vs 62.0% overall:
    https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/health/diet-and-exercise/overweight-adults/latest#by-ethnicity-over-time

    "People of Black African origin are up to three times more likely to develop Type 2 diabetes than people of White European origin."
    https://www.diabetes.org.uk/research/our-research-projects/london/black-african-ethnicity-and-type-2-diabetes-risk

    "Type 2 diabetes is up to six times more common in people of South Asian descent"
    https://www.diabetes.org.uk/resources-s3/2017-11/diabetes_in_the_uk_2010.pdf
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    New moths for the year last night included Waved Umber, Lunar Marbled Brown and Brimstone Moth.

    That is stunning. Do they get released?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,259
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    How many ‘homes’ does Jenrick have? Surely home is where your kids go to school?

    Well, he's an MP so will have one in London and one in his constituency, for starters.
    And the one he claims is the family home in Hertfordshire which is not his constituency I believe.
    I'm shocked an MP doesn't consider their constituency their permanent home. Shocked! :o

    :D
    My MP is certainly running a local CV support network. Jenrick probably doesn't have the time to, he is a Government minister after all. However the question is - would an MP travelling between their home and constituency be an essential journey, or would we expect them to live apart from their family for the duration? Not an easy question to answer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Floater said:
    Hmmmm.....

    "The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK."
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    A further 48 people have died in Scotland after testing positive for Covid-19, bringing the total there to 495, the first minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced.

    Sturgeon said there are now 5,275 confirmed positive cases in Scotland, up by 318 from 4,957 the day before.

    There are 207 people in intensive care with coronavirus or coronavirus symptoms, a decrease of five on Thursday.

    Sturgeon added that 1,832 people are in hospital with confirmed or suspected Covid-19.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,604

    We’ve cosied up to China for too long BY NICK TIMOTHY

    https://unherd.com/2020/04/weve-cosied-up-to-china-for-too-long/

    He is of course correct, but the question remains as to how much things will actually change once the current situation is over.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    BBC News:
    US stocks have just recorded their biggest weekly gain for 46 years despite the bleak economic outlook.
    Wall Street's S&P 500 shares index has risen 12% this week, as the US central bank announced more stimulus measures to support the economy.

    These violent movements must be giving sharp/lucky speculators a real field day. And bankrupting trhe ones that get it wrong. Not a job I'd fancy having.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,604
    Floater said:
    Lol, there's always a few idiots who thinks the rules don't apply to themselves. No, chartering your own plane to go on holiday isn't allowed!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Jess Phillips appointment has sent the Cult wild.

    A typical response:

    https://twitter.com/SkyeCity_/status/1248332254532833282

    Bye!

    They should have formed one in the first place instead of hijacking the Labour Party.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:
    Hmmmm.....

    "The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK."
    I did notice that little snippet myself :wink:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Floater said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    FF43 said:

    JonathanD said:

    isam said:
    So successfully, the policy has also been implemented across Europe.
    A comparison between the UK death rates and Germany show that's not the case. However best to ascribe the UKs failure to political incompetence rather than active malice.
    Why is Germany the baseline rather than Italy, Spain, France, Holland, Switzerland, Denmark etc? All that shows is at least one country is doing better than us.
    I would say the UK response to the coronavirus has been average to poor in European terms, which collectively has done better than the US but worse than East Asia.

    I would put the UK in a group of countries including France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Netherlands. Another group of countries including Germany, most of Scandinavia, some of East and Central Europe and Ireland have done better.
    Scandinavia, East & Central Europe have much lower population density and are less inter connected than UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Netherlands. The virus hasnt spread as much to rural areas in those countries either. Id imagine the former group also has better levels of fitness and lower levels of obesity.

    It seems much more likely to me the variations are primarily down to factors other than policy.
    Yes - Germany and Austria aren't really modern Western industrial countries. There are just a few small remote villages, whose inhabitants spend most of the time tilling the land and rarely even see another. They're more likely to catch the virus from a horse than a human! You can't compare what happens there to the experience of proper countries.
    Comparing the UK with Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, Denmark would be fine. We would be average or better so far.
    Deaths/million pop:

    Spain: 339
    Italy: 302
    Belge: 260
    France: 187
    Netherlands: 140
    UK: 118
    Switz: 111
    Sweden: 79
    Ireland: 53
    Denmark: 41
    Portugal: 40
    Austria: 35
    Germany: 31

    Middling, I'd say

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Still far from over, and with Heathrow hoovering in potential new cases daily, time will tell.
    Why doesn't someone, at the daily Press conference, have the wit to ask why there are no controls at Heathrow (etc).
    How many passengers are coming in daily?
    Before this kicked off it was over 106,000 international arrivals per day. So even if traffic is down 90% that's still over 10,000 a day. Singapore has simply banned all foreigners from arriving or transiting and returning Singapore nationals are quarantined for 14 days. But there are still 3 SQ flights a week from Singapore to London (used to be 21).
    Do those air traffic numbers account for the number of bums in seats, or is it plane movements? Also cargo planes will still be flying etc. I'd be surprised if 10,000 people were arriving into Heathrow daily.
    I've been trying to find actual numbers of people flying, and there's very little information out there.

    Anecdotal evidence suggests that flights not specifically booked as rescue flights are flying almost empty of pax, but passenger planes are being flown with plenty of cargo on board to keep supply chains running. Massive numbers of planes are parked up, and crews furloughed at many airlines.
    I think that is about right

    There are loads of passenger planes parked up and on the ground.

    The accumulations per location can be quite high quite now.

    Cargo operations are doing very well I hear.

    That is not going to be the case for most European Airlines.

    BA for example generates circa 7% of normal revenues from cargo operations.

    A friend who works as flight crew for BA noted that passengers are down to a handful - usually people with urgent, on site business at the other end. For example, one chap was an engineer going to provide on-site knowledge to do maintenance on water processing system.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    Hmmmm.....

    "The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK."
    I did notice that little snippet myself :wink:
    I am surprised somebody hasn't been on the media asking for us to think about hookers at this tough time....Friday nights, perhaps should be honk for hookers at 8pm.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FF43 said:

    From talking to a buyer, I understand the Lidl and Aldi buying approach is the same as Tesco and the others: determine the minimum requirements for the product delivery, including quality and capacity to deliver and then choose whoever meets those criteria at the cheapest price. This means there is very little difference in quality across the board for all the supermarkets. The partial exceptions are Marks and Spencer and Waitrose on some products where they include a better but not cheaper metric.

    Lidl and Aldi are much less concerned about shelf price consistency. Whilst, say, Sainsburys have the same price on a tin of chopped tomatoes all year round Aldi will see the price vary heavily depending on what they are paying.

    At one point I was paying 8p a can for chopped tomatoes at Aldi whilst they were 35p a can at Sainsburys. Later in the year they were 50p a can at Aldi and 35p at Sainsburys.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601

    We’ve cosied up to China for too long BY NICK TIMOTHY

    https://unherd.com/2020/04/weve-cosied-up-to-china-for-too-long/

    Quote:

    "The most immediate step should be to reverse the decision to allow Huawei, the
    Chinese telecommunications company, to run parts of Britain’s new 5G network. Whatever ministers and officials have convinced themselves, Huawei is not some benign company from a conventional market economy. It is subsidised by Beijing’s autocratic, communist regime so it can find its way into the most sensitive parts of other countries’ critical national infrastructure. Britain should change policy so – like the United States, Australia and other security allies — we ban Huawei from our system."
  • Ex-England defender Norman Hunter is being treated in hospital after testing positive for coronavirus, his former club Leeds United have confirmed.

    Did he get it from biting someone’s leg?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    We’ve cosied up to China for too long BY NICK TIMOTHY

    https://unherd.com/2020/04/weve-cosied-up-to-china-for-too-long/

    Quote:

    "The most immediate step should be to reverse the decision to allow Huawei, the
    Chinese telecommunications company, to run parts of Britain’s new 5G network. Whatever ministers and officials have convinced themselves, Huawei is not some benign company from a conventional market economy. It is subsidised by Beijing’s autocratic, communist regime so it can find its way into the most sensitive parts of other countries’ critical national infrastructure. Britain should change policy so – like the United States, Australia and other security allies — we ban Huawei from our system."
    The pressure is going to be overwhelming. And not just 5G, our over reliance on a very small number of countries for crucial elements. It is one thing being ok with cheap crap toys coming from China, but 97% of antibiotics made in China and pretty much all paracetamol from India.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    Jonathan said:


    Lovely! I can smell them from here.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    BBC News:
    US stocks have just recorded their biggest weekly gain for 46 years despite the bleak economic outlook.
    Wall Street's S&P 500 shares index has risen 12% this week, as the US central bank announced more stimulus measures to support the economy.

    These violent movements must be giving sharp/lucky speculators a real field day. And bankrupting trhe ones that get it wrong. Not a job I'd fancy having.
    What's the downside? Get it right and you are a rich hero. Get it wrong and the bank or government bails you out and you need to get a job with a rival firm on Monday. Rinse and repeat.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    Is it "Team Do As I Say"?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    BBC News:
    US stocks have just recorded their biggest weekly gain for 46 years despite the bleak economic outlook.
    Wall Street's S&P 500 shares index has risen 12% this week, as the US central bank announced more stimulus measures to support the economy.

    These violent movements must be giving sharp/lucky speculators a real field day. And bankrupting trhe ones that get it wrong. Not a job I'd fancy having.
    What's the downside? Get it right and you are a rich hero. Get it wrong and the bank or government bails you out and you need to get a job with a rival firm on Monday. Rinse and repeat.
    So speculators never go bankrupt?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    BBC News:
    US stocks have just recorded their biggest weekly gain for 46 years despite the bleak economic outlook.
    Wall Street's S&P 500 shares index has risen 12% this week, as the US central bank announced more stimulus measures to support the economy.

    These violent movements must be giving sharp/lucky speculators a real field day. And bankrupting trhe ones that get it wrong. Not a job I'd fancy having.
    What's the downside? Get it right and you are a rich hero. Get it wrong and the bank or government bails you out and you need to get a job with a rival firm on Monday. Rinse and repeat.
    I don't think government bailouts are remotely as common as you make out.

    Especially when Brown isn't in Downing Street.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    This could be important:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

    "From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

    The authors explain that the difference in the calculations boils down to how many people are actually infected but haven’t been counted because they have mild or no symptoms."
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    Most apt for Good Friday.

    He (almost) died to save us all.
    How typically Borissian, triumphal entry to resurrection avoiding that unpleasant death bit in the middle.
    Which pb.com tory is this?

    https://twitter.com/RyanFilmmaker/status/1248364793322450944
    There, there - I'm sure you'll get over failing to have your heart's desire soon.

    You've had lots of practice, after all.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited April 2020

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    malcolmg said:

    Ratters said:

    fox327 said:


    The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.

    See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.

    Exactly.

    If we rule out herd immunity as a strategy, which we seem to have,

    Maybe steps like mass antibody testing and compulsory mask wearing (once enough are available) can bring us closer to something that resembles normality, but I've become quite pessimistic of late.
    I think things might have been better if we'd never heard the phrase 'herd immunity.'

    I agree re. your last paragraph. Mass antibody testing, carrying some sort of 'I've had the virus' ID and, yes, compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and inside public buildings.
    It did however confirm how our betters think of us, they do not normally admit to it. Our Lords and Masters think of us as disposable worker ants.
    Hard as it is to accept, herd immunity is still the only show in town.
    Just out of curiosity, would you agree to be infected with the virus, and to go into isolation until you were no longer infectious, and also to waive the right to medical treatment for the infection?

    It's a genuine question. If there were really large numbers of people who felt that way, they could make a genuine contribution to solving the problem.

    As volunteers for a large scale vaccine trial, perhaps ?

    No, I'm not talking about volunteers for a vaccine trial. I'm talking about volunteers actually to be infected by the virus so as to contribute to herd immunity. While ensuring that they won't infect any non-volunteers or deprive non-volunteers of medical resources.
    Yes, so am I, but perhaps more constructively ?
    If they were first vaccinated, and then deliberately infected, you would save many months in testing a vaccine’s efficacy.
    Oh - OK, provided you're going to have a really good go at infecting them.

    But I do think time is of the essence, and if they really think herd immunity is such a brilliant idea they should be willing to do their bit asap.

    No volunteers yet, though.
    If there were a virus infection programme, I'd certainly give it serious consideration. I think there is something in 'viral dose' so I would expect to be given a minimal dose in controlled conditions.
    That would be OK, if you insisted.

    But you still feel a bit unsure whether you'd be willing to do it. Why? If you're advocating herd immunity, you're advocating 60% of the population getting it, including many people who would die. Why so hesitant when it comes to you getting it yourself?
    Because I would want to know the specifics. If I 'caught' Coronavirus, I would be able to eat the foods, take the supplements, and put in place the treatment regimen that I felt most beneficial. I'd want to do that in this case too.
    And if it turned out to be a bad case I suppose you'd want intensive care.
    I've been on an HDU ward before and didn't care for it much, so I'd prefer to have a device to support me at home, even if I were experiencing breathing difficulties. But having paid into the NHS all my adult life, and having health insurance, I'd expect to be treated medically if the worst came to the worst, yes.
    This was the suggestion you were going to give "serious consideration" to:
    Just out of curiosity, would you agree to be infected with the virus, and to go into isolation until you were no longer infectious, and also to waive the right to medical treatment for the infection?

    Thanks for the clarification. As I thought.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    I would have thought the pathetic word-police babies would have moved on by now. Clearly not.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    I would have thought the pathetic word-police babies would have moved on by now. Clearly not.

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    I would have thought the pathetic word-police babies would have moved on by now. Clearly not.
    Yes but which team has he taken one for?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Cambridge police patrolling the non-essential aisles.
    https://twitter.com/cambridgecops/status/1248527425379713025?s=21

    This makes me queasy. Who's to say what an "essential" item is? What's essential to one person is non-essential to others.

    The police are in no position to judge this.
    If 'authorities' want to stop people buying certain items, then they should be cleared from the shelves. Trying to police supermarket trolleys is Orwellian.
    I'm all for a strictly enforced lockdown, but this just seems silly. But then I suppose it is the job of the police to enforce laws, no matter how badly they are formulated.
    Yes, but it's not their job to badly enforce those laws. Sometimes they are given unclear guidance from government on interpreting those laws, but they also seem to interpret them themselves (in fairness a lot of the time the government does not give guidance on its laws) and do it inconsistently. Which is something forgivable up to a point, but even when matters have been clarified they seem reluctant to change tack.

    And no, complaining about such things is no awful police bashing. They do a lot of great work. But there is work they do that is not so great.
    There's little or no cocaine coming in, apparently and the county line people are in lockdown. No traffic either, so they feel they have to do something.
    It would also be wrong in law & guidance. If someone is going to the supermarket for food (essential) adding something non-essential doesn’t stop the trip being defined as essential
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    OllyT said:

    Jess Phillips appointment has sent the Cult wild.

    A typical response:

    https://twitter.com/SkyeCity_/status/1248332254532833282

    Bye!

    They should have formed one in the first place instead of hijacking the Labour Party.
    I think it was based on a certain naivety. They thought that pendulums swing in British politics, so if they controlled one of the two major parties sooner or later they were bound to be in government.

    It didn’t occur to them that if people thought they were unfit for government all that would happen is the pendulum wouldn’t swing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    Andy_JS said:

    This could be important:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

    "From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

    The authors explain that the difference in the calculations boils down to how many people are actually infected but haven’t been counted because they have mild or no symptoms."

    Been mentioned before - but yes, this number is very important.

    What is interesting is the wide variation that such studies seem to indicate.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    nichomar said:

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    I would have thought the pathetic word-police babies would have moved on by now. Clearly not.

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    I would have thought the pathetic word-police babies would have moved on by now. Clearly not.
    Yes but which team has he taken one for?
    Team Fucking Awesome! :smiley:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    Jonathan said:


    Contraband!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    I would have thought the pathetic word-police babies would have moved on by now. Clearly not.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSw
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Floater said:

    Floater said:
    Hmmmm.....

    "The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK."
    I did notice that little snippet myself :wink:
    Wicked French. Not letting those men take their daughters for a much-needed break.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Andy_JS said:

    This could be important:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

    "From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

    The authors explain that the difference in the calculations boils down to how many people are actually infected but haven’t been counted because they have mild or no symptoms."

    Half a per cent, more or less, is very much in line with other evidence, including that from China outside Hubei province.

    Of course, if the zany conspiracy theorists are right it's far deadlier than that. But something like 0.5% seems to be the consensus.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I do wonder about those hiring hookers at this time....of all those I don't want to come into contact with, hookers are up there with healthcare professionals.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226

    What's the downside? Get it right and you are a rich hero. Get it wrong and the bank or government bails you out and you need to get a job with a rival firm on Monday. Rinse and repeat.

    As often as not (in the good old days) get it wrong and you're a hero too. You have proved you have Balls and post sack will be in great demand. This culture was at the root of the bank crash of 08. Don't let anybody tell you otherwise.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    kinabalu said:

    Team 50+ year old fat blokes.

    Legend.

    Never in doubt. Told people he would be fine, didn't I? Also made a tenner by laying 2020 exit at 4 before they suspended the market. Smug city.

    My sense is that ICU was VERY precautionary, i.e. he was taken into there because of who he is. Quite right to do so, not making a sour little point about it, but it meant he was a great lay in that market (before they shut it down).

    Anyway, good news on many fronts. Boris lives, I land a shrewd bet, and - the biggie - I can stop calling him Boris.

    What's important now is that Johnson gets back to work asap and gets a grip on the situation. People are dying in numbers that just a few short weeks ago we would have described as scandalous.
    Suggest Boris Johnson follows medical advice and the rest of them follow scientific advice.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is pollution the reason some places are more affected by Covid-19 than others? Lombardy, Wuhan and London are bad I think

    “Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.”

    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home

    People have mentioned that BAMEs are disproportionately dying from Covid19. Could it be because they tend to live in cities with bad pollution problems rather than any genetic/racial disposition?
    They also have higher rates of diabetes and heart disease. There is a genetic disposition for that.

    I am sure things such as more likely to be living in high density housing, in high density urban with higher pollution environments, higher rates of comorbidities, and more likely to be working customer facing jobs.

    And finally, religion. Going to organized religious events, they are a key transport vector.
    Any mass event not just religious ones
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Naz Shah has been appointed shadow minister for "community cohesion". This is the woman who said grooming victims should stay quiet for the sake of community cohesion. It is astonishingly insulting for victims that Starmer did this.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is pollution the reason some places are more affected by Covid-19 than others? Lombardy, Wuhan and London are bad I think

    “Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.”

    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home

    People have mentioned that BAMEs are disproportionately dying from Covid19. Could it be because they tend to live in cities with bad pollution problems rather than any genetic/racial disposition?
    Once the dust settles there should be an easy way to check this hypothesis because you can look at mortality rates in cities vs. rural areas and correct for ethnicity.
    Correct for ethnicity how, if the effect of ethnicity is what you're trying to check?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This could be important:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

    "From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

    The authors explain that the difference in the calculations boils down to how many people are actually infected but haven’t been counted because they have mild or no symptoms."

    Half a per cent, more or less, is very much in line with other evidence, including that from China outside Hubei province.

    Of course, if the zany conspiracy theorists are right it's far deadlier than that. But something like 0.5% seems to be the consensus.
    Which implies about 200 000 deaths in the UK to get to herd immunity and the ability to leave lockdown without controls.

    For comparison about twice that number of casualties were taken over the five years of the WW II
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited April 2020
    Gabs3 said:

    Naz Shah has been appointed shadow minister for "community cohesion". This is the woman who said grooming victims should stay quiet for the sake of community cohesion. It is astonishingly insulting for victims that Starmer did this.

    That is definitely a mis-step. Even leaving her past history aside, she has shocking judgement.

    A dog whistle to the far left, perhaps?
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    ydoethur said:

    OllyT said:

    Jess Phillips appointment has sent the Cult wild.

    A typical response:

    https://twitter.com/SkyeCity_/status/1248332254532833282

    Bye!

    They should have formed one in the first place instead of hijacking the Labour Party.
    I think it was based on a certain naivety. They thought that pendulums swing in British politics, so if they controlled one of the two major parties sooner or later they were bound to be in government.

    It didn’t occur to them that if people thought they were unfit for government all that would happen is the pendulum wouldn’t swing.
    The reason the pendulum swings is that the party out of power gets fed up of it and reluctantly accepts they need to compromise with the electorate. .
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    FF43 said:

    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This could be important:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

    "From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

    The authors explain that the difference in the calculations boils down to how many people are actually infected but haven’t been counted because they have mild or no symptoms."

    Half a per cent, more or less, is very much in line with other evidence, including that from China outside Hubei province.

    Of course, if the zany conspiracy theorists are right it's far deadlier than that. But something like 0.5% seems to be the consensus.
    Which implies about 200 000 deaths in the UK to get to herd immunity and the ability to leave lockdown without controls.
    If you could do it without the NHS collapsing - otherwise the death toll would be a lot higher, both from Covid and other causes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    FF43 said:

    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This could be important:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

    "From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

    The authors explain that the difference in the calculations boils down to how many people are actually infected but haven’t been counted because they have mild or no symptoms."

    Half a per cent, more or less, is very much in line with other evidence, including that from China outside Hubei province.

    Of course, if the zany conspiracy theorists are right it's far deadlier than that. But something like 0.5% seems to be the consensus.
    Which implies about 200 000 deaths in the UK to get to herd immunity and the ability to leave lockdown without controls.
    Depends how you lift lockdown, I suppose. Keep the oldies and at risk in seclusion as much as possible while the rest get it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    edited April 2020

    I do wonder about those hiring hookers at this time....of all those I don't want to come into contact with, hookers are up there with healthcare professionals.

    Genital sex seems to be OK, but not kisses. If you can split the two :-o .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is pollution the reason some places are more affected by Covid-19 than others? Lombardy, Wuhan and London are bad I think

    “Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.”

    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home

    People have mentioned that BAMEs are disproportionately dying from Covid19. Could it be because they tend to live in cities with bad pollution problems rather than any genetic/racial disposition?
    They also have higher rates of diabetes and heart disease. There is a genetic disposition for that.

    I am sure things such as more likely to be living in high density housing, in high density urban with higher pollution environments, higher rates of comorbidities, and more likely to be working customer facing jobs.

    And finally, religion. Going to organized religious events, they are a key transport vector.
    Any mass event not just religious ones
    Oh yes of course, conferences appear really bad things to attend.

    My point was in specific relations to say why Asians are over-represented, going to the mosque or temple, especially the elderly who are much more observant. And we have seen early data that Jews as well.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Seriously plod - go look for some real fecking crimes

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207393/Sales-Easter-eggs-wine-barbecues-paddling-pools-soar-ahead-four-day-break.html

    Video shows a South Yorkshire officer scolding a family for letting their young children play on the front lawn
    Cambridge Police boasted that officers had visited a local Tesco this morning to snoop on non-essential aisles
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Floater said:

    Seriously plod - go look for some real fecking crimes

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207393/Sales-Easter-eggs-wine-barbecues-paddling-pools-soar-ahead-four-day-break.html

    Video shows a South Yorkshire officer scolding a family for letting their young children play on the front lawn
    Cambridge Police boasted that officers had visited a local Tesco this morning to snoop on non-essential aisles

    Meeks was right... power creep. Children from one household playing in the front lawn is within the government guidelines.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Chris said:

    FF43 said:

    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This could be important:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

    "From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

    The authors explain that the difference in the calculations boils down to how many people are actually infected but haven’t been counted because they have mild or no symptoms."

    Half a per cent, more or less, is very much in line with other evidence, including that from China outside Hubei province.

    Of course, if the zany conspiracy theorists are right it's far deadlier than that. But something like 0.5% seems to be the consensus.
    Which implies about 200 000 deaths in the UK to get to herd immunity and the ability to leave lockdown without controls.
    If you could do it without the NHS collapsing - otherwise the death toll would be a lot higher, both from Covid and other causes.
    Good point. We're only talking about deaths directly related to Covid-19.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    MattW said:

    I do wonder about those hiring hookers at this time....of all those I don't want to come into contact with, hookers are up there with healthcare professionals.

    Genital sex seems to be OK, but not kisses.
    Provided you keep 2 metres apart.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    MattW said:

    I do wonder about those hiring hookers at this time....of all those I don't want to come into contact with, hookers are up there with healthcare professionals.

    Genital sex seems to be OK, but not kisses. If you can split the two :-o .
    Not sure many men are well equipped enough to be able to do the deed while maintaining the 2m social distancing....
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited April 2020

    nichomar said:

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    I would have thought the pathetic word-police babies would have moved on by now. Clearly not.

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    I would have thought the pathetic word-police babies would have moved on by now. Clearly not.
    Yes but which team has he taken one for?
    Team Fucking Awesome! :smiley:
    Pathetic I’m afraid. Which team do you regard in such way, he doesn’t play for Liverpool.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Chris said:

    MattW said:

    I do wonder about those hiring hookers at this time....of all those I don't want to come into contact with, hookers are up there with healthcare professionals.

    Genital sex seems to be OK, but not kisses.
    Provided you keep 2 metres apart.
    No problem :blush:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    edited April 2020
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    I would have thought the pathetic word-police babies would have moved on by now. Clearly not.

    Can anyone advise which team Boris has taken one for?

    https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/1248552083571253250?s=20

    I would have thought the pathetic word-police babies would have moved on by now. Clearly not.
    Yes but which team has he taken one for?
    Team Fucking Awesome! :smiley:
    Pathetic I’m afraid. Which team do you regard in such way, he doesn’t play for Liverpool.
    Err, the conservative party? The clue is in his handle. :D
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2020
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    Chris said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This could be important:

    https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

    "From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

    The authors explain that the difference in the calculations boils down to how many people are actually infected but haven’t been counted because they have mild or no symptoms."

    Half a per cent, more or less, is very much in line with other evidence, including that from China outside Hubei province.

    Of course, if the zany conspiracy theorists are right it's far deadlier than that. But something like 0.5% seems to be the consensus.
    Which implies about 200 000 deaths in the UK to get to herd immunity and the ability to leave lockdown without controls.
    Depends how you lift lockdown, I suppose. Keep the oldies and at risk in seclusion as much as possible while the rest get it.
    Exiting lockdown, absent a vaccine, requires a good segregation policy, lots of testing and social controls. This is the new normal for the time being.

    Edit. Missed the point you were making. If you can identify and segregate the most vulnerable, you might get to herd immunity with a smaller death rate. This is possible, but the numbers will still be grim I expect.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    ydoethur said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Naz Shah has been appointed shadow minister for "community cohesion". This is the woman who said grooming victims should stay quiet for the sake of community cohesion. It is astonishingly insulting for victims that Starmer did this.

    That is definitely a mis-step. Even leaving her past history aside, she has shocking judgement.

    A dog whistle to the far left, perhaps?
    I don't think Naz Shah is a dogwhistle to the Corbynistas - that would be Zara Sultana or a few others.

    AFAIK, Shah is the only one who has convincingly tackled her own casual antisemitism head on; the others mainly seem just to issue "notpologies".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Floater said:

    Seriously plod - go look for some real fecking crimes

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207393/Sales-Easter-eggs-wine-barbecues-paddling-pools-soar-ahead-four-day-break.html

    Video shows a South Yorkshire officer scolding a family for letting their young children play on the front lawn
    Cambridge Police boasted that officers had visited a local Tesco this morning to snoop on non-essential aisles

    They ought to be at the airports making sure people coming into the country are not at risk of spreading the virus.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Is pollution the reason some places are more affected by Covid-19 than others? Lombardy, Wuhan and London are bad I think

    “Conclusions: A small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in COVID-19 death rate, with the magnitude of increase 20 times that observed for PM2.5 and all-cause mortality. The study results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available.”

    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home

    People have mentioned that BAMEs are disproportionately dying from Covid19. Could it be because they tend to live in cities with bad pollution problems rather than any genetic/racial disposition?
    They also have higher rates of diabetes and heart disease. There is a genetic disposition for that.

    I am sure things such as more likely to be living in high density housing, in high density urban with higher pollution environments, higher rates of comorbidities, and more likely to be working customer facing jobs.

    And finally, religion. Going to organized religious events, they are a key transport vector.
    There are also medical drawbacks associated with first cousin marriage.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/7957808/700-children-born-with-genetic-disabilities-due-to-cousin-marriages-every-year.html
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    Floater said:

    Chris said:

    MattW said:

    I do wonder about those hiring hookers at this time....of all those I don't want to come into contact with, hookers are up there with healthcare professionals.

    Genital sex seems to be OK, but not kisses.
    Provided you keep 2 metres apart.
    No problem :blush:
    You need "teledildonics":
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teledildonics

    :-)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Can't be easy being Number 10 spokesperson, but the latest statement is amusing for its implied element of doubt:

    "I am told he was waving his thanks towards the nurses and doctors that he saw as he was being moved from the intensive care unit back to the ward.

    Hopefully it was clear to the staff that he was waving his gratitude.

    ... as opposed to "Bye, hope I never see you lot again"?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Andy_JS said:

    Floater said:

    Seriously plod - go look for some real fecking crimes

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207393/Sales-Easter-eggs-wine-barbecues-paddling-pools-soar-ahead-four-day-break.html

    Video shows a South Yorkshire officer scolding a family for letting their young children play on the front lawn
    Cambridge Police boasted that officers had visited a local Tesco this morning to snoop on non-essential aisles

    They ought to be at the airports making sure people coming into the country are not at risk of spreading the virus.
    I think that would be a waste of resources given the tiny numbers coming in these days.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Chris said:

    MattW said:

    I do wonder about those hiring hookers at this time....of all those I don't want to come into contact with, hookers are up there with healthcare professionals.

    Genital sex seems to be OK, but not kisses.
    Provided you keep 2 metres apart.
    To be fair, some working girls were equipped with masks and gloves already. A friend told me.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Naz Shah has been appointed shadow minister for "community cohesion". This is the woman who said grooming victims should stay quiet for the sake of community cohesion. It is astonishingly insulting for victims that Starmer did this.

    That is definitely a mis-step. Even leaving her past history aside, she has shocking judgement.

    A dog whistle to the far left, perhaps?
    I don't think Naz Shah is a dogwhistle to the Corbynistas - that would be Zara Sultana or a few others.

    AFAIK, Shah is the only one who has convincingly tackled her own casual antisemitism head on; the others mainly seem just to issue "notpologies".
    The grooming scandal is the most outrageous unaddressed scandal for decades. I am a liberal establishment-minded centrist but it is the one thing that made me wonder whether the populists were right. There has been a conspiracy of silence around it, which was only temporarily paused when public anger got too much. Now the debate has moved on again, the response has been brushed under the carpet again. It is across all the major parties. I continue to be disgusted by it and this appointment shows that Keir Starmer, previously a victims advocate, is going along with the whitewashing.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Andy_JS said:

    Floater said:

    Seriously plod - go look for some real fecking crimes

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8207393/Sales-Easter-eggs-wine-barbecues-paddling-pools-soar-ahead-four-day-break.html

    Video shows a South Yorkshire officer scolding a family for letting their young children play on the front lawn
    Cambridge Police boasted that officers had visited a local Tesco this morning to snoop on non-essential aisles

    They ought to be at the airports making sure people coming into the country are not at risk of spreading the virus.
    The words "drop" and "ocean" spring immediately to mind.
This discussion has been closed.