With great thanks to Germany UK Government has put out a plea for help through NATO and Germany is sending 60 mobile ventilators immediately. #COVID19 The Dyson Ventilators are still some way off apparently
That's one of four or so "strands" of ventilator procurement at the moment -
1) More from existing suppliers. 2) Build existing designs via new contractors. 3) Build new designs via new contractors. 4) More via asking other countries.
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
It would not surprise me as the SNP MPs may well have been told to observe this strictly, whereas the Tories will not have. The SNP got in trouble previously by claiming that all their payrises (they argued against the payrises) would go to charity. No money has ever been recorded going to charity and it is an awkward question that keeps being asked. This time they will have been very much out to avoid a repeat, and unless they need the 10,000, good for them not taking it.
It's entirely possible that the SNP have collectively decided that they won't claim these funds.
The idea that all Tories except JRM have taken it though - and that the only person who knows this before expense claims are put in or published is Black Saltire's anonymous source?
Bovine manure.
Personally, I have no problem with MPs getting extra finance so that their office staff can work from home, on a very busy caseload. Indeed I cannot see why the SNP want to penalise their staff by refusing to cover their costs. It all has to be receipted and no doubt will be scrutinised. It is not being spent on duck houses and moat cleaning!
Sleep, diet, etc. all normal. I only drink (one) on Taranto Night anyway. There is a certain amount of marital strife as Mrs DA is home all day. I tried to win a YouTube driveway stay-at-home burnout competition and blew up the turbo in the E46. She went fucking mad about that. The drive, not the turbo.
Hard to think why...
I entered into mitigation the fact that it had not caught fire. The high pressure oil line came off the turbo when the hot side let go so it could have easily gone up in mushroom cloud. The Bloody Assizes were not inclined to clemency however.
But did you come close to winning the competition?
No. The turbo blew up about five seconds in. Some Polish guy in an E36 who roasted his rear tyres down the wire and melted his rear rotors looks fav.
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
We shall see, be interesting to see if they publish who the grasping greedy barstewards are. Bet the Tories are top of the league.
The answer is that people will push the guidelines and get out and about. In some ways we are paying for the slow uptake of the UK Government. In other ways, we're just paying the price for a vicious virus.
In the absence of a cure or treatment the grim reality is that the lockdown will have to ease and it will do so anyway. Yes, people will die. But the consequences of a world of cooped up people are even more dire.
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
It would not surprise me as the SNP MPs may well have been told to observe this strictly, whereas the Tories will not have. The SNP got in trouble previously by claiming that all their payrises (they argued against the payrises) would go to charity. No money has ever been recorded going to charity and it is an awkward question that keeps being asked. This time they will have been very much out to avoid a repeat, and unless they need the 10,000, good for them not taking it.
The £10,000 is for the MPs office activities - ie staff costs. It will be needed so that case-workers in MPs office are able to set up to work from home and deal with constituency complaints / issues.
If SNP MPs aren't planning on using the money then I guess they aren't planning on doing any work for their constituents during this period. Probably makes sense as most day to day matters are devolved to the Scottish parliament, so individuals in a Scottish constituency will be contacting their MSP first rather than MP.
Seems a nice jolly to be a welsh, or particularly Scottish MP then.
I'm sure MPs with less day to day casework more fully devote themselves to scrutinising the quality of the legislation they are passing...
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
It would not surprise me as the SNP MPs may well have been told to observe this strictly, whereas the Tories will not have. The SNP got in trouble previously by claiming that all their payrises (they argued against the payrises) would go to charity. No money has ever been recorded going to charity and it is an awkward question that keeps being asked. This time they will have been very much out to avoid a repeat, and unless they need the 10,000, good for them not taking it.
It's entirely possible that the SNP have collectively decided that they won't claim these funds.
Serious question. Are most SNP MPs’ staff in Scotland rather than London anyway?
If so they will already have been remote working and here will have been less need to adapt their processes.
Morning Ydoethur, have you been on the sherry. Why would Scottish staff working in MP's offices be any different from those elsewhere in the country. They have offices in their constituencies like everyone else, barking.
A lot of English MPs at least have office functions in London rather than their constituencies.
This ten grand is to allow them to adapt that model so they can work remotely - e.g. pay for printing on private printers.
Query for PBers who are obliged to use their cars during the crisis.
Traffic is virtually non-existent in my little town of Winchcombe, Gloucestershire, and I notice that even those cars on the road are travelling much slower than usual. Anyone else noticing this?
I haven't been on the motorway since it all started but my guess is that even there people are sticking to the limits. Observations anyone?
In the US, a couple of madmen have just set the Cannonball Run record, driving from New York to LA in 26 hours and 35 minutes. It's 2,800 miles.
In contrast, where I am in Dubai, we have a full curfew in place, permission needed to go grocery shopping and every speed camera is set low to record number plates. No speeding here.
Did they say how many speeding tickets they picked up?
I did a similar trip (SF to Philly) in 1969. Took 12 days.
"In most states across the country, data show that most of those who have tested positive for the virus are women. From the Deep South to New England states and the Midwest, most states have confirmed hundreds if not thousands more cases in women than in men, with a few notable exceptions.
But in states that report the genders of those who have died from the COVID-19 disease, every one has reported more deaths among men than among women, usually by a substantial margin — and scientists don't know why."
While the disease does seem more deadly to (overweight over 50) men ...
It's entirely possible that women have sought out testing and treatment but men haven't as much.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Exactly.
If we rule out herd immunity as a strategy, which we seem to have,
Maybe steps like mass antibody testing and compulsory mask wearing (once enough are available) can bring us closer to something that resembles normality, but I've become quite pessimistic of late.
I think things might have been better if we'd never heard the phrase 'herd immunity.'
I agree re. your last paragraph. Mass antibody testing, carrying some sort of 'I've had the virus' ID and, yes, compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and inside public buildings.
Thinking about Robert Jenrick's 'faux pas', Grandson 1 drove 40 miles yesterday to bring us a supermarket order. Does it about every 10 days. He puts the shopping on the front doorstep, then comes round and stands outside a window and we chat. Don't want to discourage him, but should we?
There is a point here about "households". In unit terms you are pretty much in a household with your grandson even though you are in separate dwellings, as he's getting your regular shopping. You are keeping your contact points one to one, which is the key to stopping an exponential spread. ( As well as maintaining good social distancing behaviour).
If Starmer tries to bin Momentum & the Dirlewanger Brigade en-mass, he might achieve a walkout. Which would put a massive dent in the Labour Party.
Maybe I am cynical, but my first thought was that this was the lawyer in Keir coming out.
He has to at least make a pretence at unity, so he appoints one of the dumber Corbynites to a role where she has to behave herself. When (inevitably) she says something racist and anti-semitic, he can make great play of sacking her, showing his tough side, and taking down one of the enemy foot soldiers.
Some kind of neo-Respect also remains a threat to the control of elements of the urban minority vote. Especially with tensions that would come from a world-wide depression.
Does anybody else have the feeling that the laws of physics are trying to tell us something?
Well you cannae change them. (For clarity that was meant to be Scottie from Star Trek. Not an excuse for anyone to wobble on about Hannibal).
This goes deep to the question of free will.
WTF are you talking about Toms, give us it in plain English
In a nutshell, from a dictionary, free will is
"the doctrine that the conduct of human beings expresses personal choice and is not simply determined by physical or divine forces."
So, are we, to some extent at least, responsible for the state of things, or shall we be merry for some day we will die?
While a bit of metaphysics and theology is always welcome on Good Friday, I cannot see why this is connected to Scotty of Star Trek.
My point of view is that we probably do not have Free Will, but that people like to believe that they do, and so act accordingly. They then interpret their predestined actions as acts of Free Will.
Perhaps if @Dura_Ace were to explain his driveway antics to Mrs DA in this way she would forgive him. Or possibly hit him with the rolling pin, depending on what she was predestined to do...
I am no longer a big believer in predestination. I do believe in what we believe coming true though. I think many mistake the two. They say 'I knew that would happen'. But many would argue 'they knew it - therefore it happened.'
There is a big difference between Predestination and precognition. Though the prior knowledge that something bad will happen and no possibility of escape is a major driver of anxiety and depression.
The theological aspects of Free Will are mirrored in more contemporary debates about nature and nurture. Is gender difference genetic, or does societal influence define us? For example. Ultimately we have rephrased theological debate to current language and knowledge, but the philosophical question is not much different.
Thinking about Robert Jenrick's 'faux pas', Grandson 1 drove 40 miles yesterday to bring us a supermarket order. Does it about every 10 days. He puts the shopping on the front doorstep, then comes round and stands outside a window and we chat. Don't want to discourage him, but should we?
There is a point here about "households". In unit terms you are pretty much in a household with your grandson even though you are in separate dwellings, as he's getting your regular shopping. You are keeping your contact points one to one, which is the key to stopping an exponential spread. ( As well as maintaining good social distancing behaviour).
You are talking mince, you would be as well saying they are in unit terms connected to the space station. Pure bollox. If they cannot get shopping any other way it is perfectly fine but they cannot be described as a unit unless you are mentally deranged.
I'm trying but failing to see a way out of lockdown (or similar) anytime soon, without accepting a much higher death toll. This virus took 3-4 months to move from a single city in China to causing thousands of deaths daily across different continents, with most of the world on lockdown. Even if cases fall, as in Italy/Spain, the virus will still have a much stronger footing to restart in most countries than it did last time.
I can only see two sustainable ways out:
1) For restrictions to be loosened/tightened according to NHS capacity. That means we will have lots more deaths, but gradually build up herd immunity. 2) A vaccine, offering a relatively quick route to herd immunity, but we won't be seeing that until 2021 at the latest.
Of course, there are other potential outcomes, such as people don't get long-term immunity from having the virus (very bad); or it does give immunity and there are far more asymptomatic cases than we thought (very good).
From a personal perspective, my wife and I have broadly accepted that the lockdown is for the long-haul and so are planning accordingly with deliveries. Having a 3 week old baby means we're erring on the side of caution and avoiding physical shops as much as possible.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
There seems to be a school of thought that as soon as the daily death toll passes its peak we can start to loosen restrictions. That just reflects complete scientific illiteracy.
Some epidemiologists have been called mathematical biologists, but they are doctors not mathematicians. Just because a person is not an epidemiologist does not make them an idiot. The medical profession is not uniquely qualified to make judgements on ethical, social and economic issues or to balance them against medical priorities. If doctors take sole responsibility for deciding the response to this crisis they may regret it in the future.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Exactly.
If we rule out herd immunity as a strategy, which we seem to have,
Maybe steps like mass antibody testing and compulsory mask wearing (once enough are available) can bring us closer to something that resembles normality, but I've become quite pessimistic of late.
I think things might have been better if we'd never heard the phrase 'herd immunity.'
I agree re. your last paragraph. Mass antibody testing, carrying some sort of 'I've had the virus' ID and, yes, compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and inside public buildings.
It did however confirm how our betters think of us, they do not normally admit to it. Our Lords and Masters think of us as disposable worker ants.
I'm trying but failing to see a way out of lockdown (or similar) anytime soon, without accepting a much higher death toll. This virus took 3-4 months to move from a single city in China to causing thousands of deaths daily across different continents, with most of the world on lockdown. Even if cases fall, as in Italy/Spain, the virus will still have a much stronger footing to restart in most countries than it did last time.
I can only see two sustainable ways out:
1) For restrictions to be loosened/tightened according to NHS capacity. That means we will have lots more deaths, but gradually build up herd immunity. 2) A vaccine, offering a relatively quick route to herd immunity, but we won't be seeing that until 2021 at the latest.
Of course, there are other potential outcomes, such as people don't get long-term immunity from having the virus (very bad); or it does give immunity and there are far more asymptomatic cases than we thought (very good).
From a personal perspective, my wife and I have broadly accepted that the lockdown is for the long-haul and so are planning accordingly with deliveries. Having a 3 week old baby means we're erring on the side of caution and avoiding physical shops as much as possible.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Doctors can't run the country. For the same reason that haberdashers or butchers can't run it. We end up with a country that is distorted to cater to a single aim. They will need to be told gently to either solve this and let us get back to normal, or just do one and let us get back to normal at some point very soon.
Thinking about Robert Jenrick's 'faux pas', Grandson 1 drove 40 miles yesterday to bring us a supermarket order. Does it about every 10 days. He puts the shopping on the front doorstep, then comes round and stands outside a window and we chat. Don't want to discourage him, but should we?
Not unless you can get someone else to do it for you
We could probably, but he wants to look after his Grannie.
Not the slightest reason why you shouldn't drive in your car to check on parents, preferably keeping your distance when you do.
Not the slightest reason why you shouldn't drive in your car to go for some exercise.
Also not the slightest reason why you shouldn't go sunbathing. I guess the theoretical reason this has been brought in is because of fears crowds of people will do it and bunch up. I suspect the real reason though is that it's not a good optic when hundreds of people are dying and NHS staff are fighting for lives. If you're sunbathing let's say 10 metres away from someone you're not going to spread or catch the virus.
But the 'law' is an ass sometimes. The science of this virus isn't what has driven 'some' of the lockdown regulations and advice.
"Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid"
Seems Cabinet is split on the lockdown. Witty is very aware of indirect deaths.
"In most states across the country, data show that most of those who have tested positive for the virus are women. From the Deep South to New England states and the Midwest, most states have confirmed hundreds if not thousands more cases in women than in men, with a few notable exceptions.
But in states that report the genders of those who have died from the COVID-19 disease, every one has reported more deaths among men than among women, usually by a substantial margin — and scientists don't know why."
While the disease does seem more deadly to (overweight over 50) men ...
It's entirely possible that women have sought out testing and treatment but men haven't as much.
They were also saying that in Chicago , Detroit etc that 72% of deaths were African American
"In most states across the country, data show that most of those who have tested positive for the virus are women. From the Deep South to New England states and the Midwest, most states have confirmed hundreds if not thousands more cases in women than in men, with a few notable exceptions.
But in states that report the genders of those who have died from the COVID-19 disease, every one has reported more deaths among men than among women, usually by a substantial margin — and scientists don't know why."
Query for PBers who are obliged to use their cars during the crisis.
Traffic is virtually non-existent in my little town of Winchcombe, Gloucestershire, and I notice that even those cars on the road are travelling much slower than usual. Anyone else noticing this?
I haven't been on the motorway since it all started but my guess is that even there people are sticking to the limits. Observations anyone?
In the US, a couple of madmen have just set the Cannonball Run record, driving from New York to LA in 26 hours and 35 minutes. It's 2,800 miles.
In contrast, where I am in Dubai, we have a full curfew in place, permission needed to go grocery shopping and every speed camera is set low to record number plates. No speeding here.
Did they say how many speeding tickets they picked up?
I did a similar trip (SF to Philly) in 1969. Took 12 days.
They've not commented themselves yet, but there's chatter on car forums about it and well-known commentators say they've seen the evidence. Funnily enough, people doing the Cannonball tend to lie low for a bit, until they're sure various police forces are not actively looking for them!
There's an awful lot of preparation that goes into this sort of attempt, things like extra fuel tanks in the boot of the car, various radar detectors, police-channel radios and recruiting friends to drive ahead and watch for cops.
I'm trying but failing to see a way out of lockdown (or similar) anytime soon, without accepting a much higher death toll. This virus took 3-4 months to move from a single city in China to causing thousands of deaths daily across different continents, with most of the world on lockdown. Even if cases fall, as in Italy/Spain, the virus will still have a much stronger footing to restart in most countries than it did last time.
I can only see two sustainable ways out:
1) For restrictions to be loosened/tightened according to NHS capacity. That means we will have lots more deaths, but gradually build up herd immunity. 2) A vaccine, offering a relatively quick route to herd immunity, but we won't be seeing that until 2021 at the latest.
Of course, there are other potential outcomes, such as people don't get long-term immunity from having the virus (very bad); or it does give immunity and there are far more asymptomatic cases than we thought (very good).
From a personal perspective, my wife and I have broadly accepted that the lockdown is for the long-haul and so are planning accordingly with deliveries. Having a 3 week old baby means we're erring on the side of caution and avoiding physical shops as much as possible.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Doctors can't run the country. For the same reason that haberdashers or butchers can't run it. We end up with a country that is distorted to cater to a single aim. They will need to be told gently to either solve this and let us get back to normal, or just do one and let us get back to normal at some point very soon.
See my post about Fraser Nelson's piece. Government is weighing up the costs of lockdown.
Does anybody else have the feeling that the laws of physics are trying to tell us something?
Well you cannae change them. (For clarity that was meant to be Scottie from Star Trek. Not an excuse for anyone to wobble on about Hannibal).
This goes deep to the question of free will.
WTF are you talking about Toms, give us it in plain English
In a nutshell, from a dictionary, free will is
"the doctrine that the conduct of human beings expresses personal choice and is not simply determined by physical or divine forces."
So, are we, to some extent at least, responsible for the state of things, or shall we be merry for some day we will die?
While a bit of metaphysics and theology is always welcome on Good Friday, I cannot see why this is connected to Scotty of Star Trek.
My point of view is that we probably do not have Free Will, but that people like to believe that they do, and so act accordingly. They then interpret their predestined actions as acts of Free Will.
Perhaps if @Dura_Ace were to explain his driveway antics to Mrs DA in this way she would forgive him. Or possibly hit him with the rolling pin, depending on what she was predestined to do...
If Foxy is correct it is mere chance that this is so for his opinion now was decided before he was born by laws of physics outside his or anyone's control. Which is why so many people think that, whatever the science opinion, there is more to be said about free will.
Chaos theory means that the actions complex systems cannot be predicted in detail. Humans are complex systems.
The prediction part is itself... complex... trends and features at some levels can be predicted.
Human beliefs and structured personalities can be seen as an attempt to bring order to the chaos of the universe - a set of rules. But who actually follows their personal rules all the time?
Religious extremism and political totalitarian ideologies are of interest when examined with this is mind.
True. Predicting what X thinks is a tricky art for all those reasons. But those who believe the laws of physics determine everything, while unable to predict all the outcomes (because of scale and complexity), none the less believe that their opinions and actions right now are fully decided by the laws of physics before they were born. If they don't think that they are free will supporters (like me).
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Exactly.
If we rule out herd immunity as a strategy, which we seem to have,
Maybe steps like mass antibody testing and compulsory mask wearing (once enough are available) can bring us closer to something that resembles normality, but I've become quite pessimistic of late.
I think things might have been better if we'd never heard the phrase 'herd immunity.'
I agree re. your last paragraph. Mass antibody testing, carrying some sort of 'I've had the virus' ID and, yes, compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and inside public buildings.
It did however confirm how our betters think of us, they do not normally admit to it. Our Lords and Masters think of us as disposable worker ants.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Exactly.
If we rule out herd immunity as a strategy, which we seem to have,
Maybe steps like mass antibody testing and compulsory mask wearing (once enough are available) can bring us closer to something that resembles normality, but I've become quite pessimistic of late.
I think things might have been better if we'd never heard the phrase 'herd immunity.'
I agree re. your last paragraph. Mass antibody testing, carrying some sort of 'I've had the virus' ID and, yes, compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and inside public buildings.
It did however confirm how our betters think of us, they do not normally admit to it. Our Lords and Masters think of us as disposable worker ants.
Hard as it is to accept, herd immunity is still the only show in town. Getting back to normality is what will enable us to continue to support the vulnerable as they self isolate.
"In most states across the country, data show that most of those who have tested positive for the virus are women. From the Deep South to New England states and the Midwest, most states have confirmed hundreds if not thousands more cases in women than in men, with a few notable exceptions.
But in states that report the genders of those who have died from the COVID-19 disease, every one has reported more deaths among men than among women, usually by a substantial margin — and scientists don't know why."
While the disease does seem more deadly to (overweight over 50) men ...
It's entirely possible that women have sought out testing and treatment but men haven't as much.
They were also saying that in Chicago , Detroit etc that 72% of deaths were African American
The disease does seem deadlier for ethnic minorities. Something about receptors being biologically different.
Isn’t that the computer equivalent of calling for Sumerian speakers?
When I graduated in comp sci in mid 80s, COBOL was still being taught on the sister degree (Data Processing) and there were still jobs around asking for it. I'm guessing that continued into the 90s.
Thinking about Robert Jenrick's 'faux pas', Grandson 1 drove 40 miles yesterday to bring us a supermarket order. Does it about every 10 days. He puts the shopping on the front doorstep, then comes round and stands outside a window and we chat. Don't want to discourage him, but should we?
There is a point here about "households". In unit terms you are pretty much in a household with your grandson even though you are in separate dwellings, as he's getting your regular shopping. You are keeping your contact points one to one, which is the key to stopping an exponential spread. ( As well as maintaining good social distancing behaviour).
You are talking mince, you would be as well saying they are in unit terms connected to the space station. Pure bollox. If they cannot get shopping any other way it is perfectly fine but they cannot be described as a unit unless you are mentally deranged.
I'm talking about what matters in terms of virus spread. I'm apparently mentally deranged in thinking that's about the only thing that matters right now. But hey!
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Exactly.
If we rule out herd immunity as a strategy, which we seem to have,
Maybe steps like mass antibody testing and compulsory mask wearing (once enough are available) can bring us closer to something that resembles normality, but I've become quite pessimistic of late.
I think things might have been better if we'd never heard the phrase 'herd immunity.'
I agree re. your last paragraph. Mass antibody testing, carrying some sort of 'I've had the virus' ID and, yes, compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and inside public buildings.
It did however confirm how our betters think of us, they do not normally admit to it. Our Lords and Masters think of us as disposable worker ants.
Hard as it is to accept, herd immunity is still the only show in town. Getting back to normality is what will enable us to continue to support the vulnerable as they self isolate.
It's an idiotic dystopian phrase that in its very choice of vocabulary immediately undoes the message it's trying to express.
Thinking about Robert Jenrick's 'faux pas', Grandson 1 drove 40 miles yesterday to bring us a supermarket order. Does it about every 10 days. He puts the shopping on the front doorstep, then comes round and stands outside a window and we chat. Don't want to discourage him, but should we?
There is a point here about "households". In unit terms you are pretty much in a household with your grandson even though you are in separate dwellings, as he's getting your regular shopping. You are keeping your contact points one to one, which is the key to stopping an exponential spread. ( As well as maintaining good social distancing behaviour).
You are talking mince, you would be as well saying they are in unit terms connected to the space station. Pure bollox. If they cannot get shopping any other way it is perfectly fine but they cannot be described as a unit unless you are mentally deranged.
I'm talking about what matters in terms of virus spread. I'm apparently mentally deranged in thinking that's about the only thing that matters right now. But hey!
I wouldn't phrase it so rudely but yes thinking that you are effectively in the same household unit if you get shopping is absurd.
I'm trying but failing to see a way out of lockdown (or similar) anytime soon, without accepting a much higher death toll. This virus took 3-4 months to move from a single city in China to causing thousands of deaths daily across different continents, with most of the world on lockdown. Even if cases fall, as in Italy/Spain, the virus will still have a much stronger footing to restart in most countries than it did last time.
I can only see two sustainable ways out:
1) For restrictions to be loosened/tightened according to NHS capacity. That means we will have lots more deaths, but gradually build up herd immunity. 2) A vaccine, offering a relatively quick route to herd immunity, but we won't be seeing that until 2021 at the latest.
Of course, there are other potential outcomes, such as people don't get long-term immunity from having the virus (very bad); or it does give immunity and there are far more asymptomatic cases than we thought (very good).
From a personal perspective, my wife and I have broadly accepted that the lockdown is for the long-haul and so are planning accordingly with deliveries. Having a 3 week old baby means we're erring on the side of caution and avoiding physical shops as much as possible.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
There seems to be a school of thought that as soon as the daily death toll passes its peak we can start to loosen restrictions. That just reflects complete scientific illiteracy.
Some epidemiologists have been called mathematical biologists, but they are doctors not mathematicians. Just because a person is not an epidemiologist does not make them an idiot. The medical profession is not uniquely qualified to make judgements on ethical, social and economic issues or to balance them against medical priorities. If doctors take sole responsibility for deciding the response to this crisis they may regret it in the future.
In some people's minds doctors have taken over the role once occupied by priests.
Artice in the Telegraph this morning by Fraser Nelson saying that 1) government surprised at how obedient Brits had been in obeying the lockdown, and that consequently the economy is suffering far more than expected, and as a result 2) models 150,000 deaths as a result of lockdown (that includes both deaths due to being poorer and deaths due to the NHS and individuals choosing to delay things like vaccinations, checking of lumps etc. Must admit, there is a lump on the back of my head I keep meaning to get checked out but won't be doing under current circumstances!
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
It would not surprise me as the SNP MPs may well have been told to observe this strictly, whereas the Tories will not have. The SNP got in trouble previously by claiming that all their payrises (they argued against the payrises) would go to charity. No money has ever been recorded going to charity and it is an awkward question that keeps being asked. This time they will have been very much out to avoid a repeat, and unless they need the 10,000, good for them not taking it.
It's entirely possible that the SNP have collectively decided that they won't claim these funds.
The idea that all Tories except JRM have taken it though - and that the only person who knows this before expense claims are put in or published is Black Saltire's anonymous source?
Bovine manure.
Personally, I have no problem with MPs getting extra finance so that their office staff can work from home, on a very busy caseload. Indeed I cannot see why the SNP want to penalise their staff by refusing to cover their costs. It all has to be receipted and no doubt will be scrutinised. It is not being spent on duck houses and moat cleaning!
Obviously they are better at budgeting and will fund from existing budget, they realise stiffing the public at this time is deplorable. How you came to the conclusion they were penalising their staff is odd. Ten grand for a few extra sheets of paper and some ink cartridges seems to me to be the issue. Will be some nice new armchairs and occasional furniture along with 55" monitors etc making their way to non SNP MP's abodes soon.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Exactly.
If we rule out herd immunity as a strategy, which we seem to have,
Maybe steps like mass antibody testing and compulsory mask wearing (once enough are available) can bring us closer to something that resembles normality, but I've become quite pessimistic of late.
I think things might have been better if we'd never heard the phrase 'herd immunity.'
I agree re. your last paragraph. Mass antibody testing, carrying some sort of 'I've had the virus' ID and, yes, compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and inside public buildings.
It did however confirm how our betters think of us, they do not normally admit to it. Our Lords and Masters think of us as disposable worker ants.
Hard as it is to accept, herd immunity is still the only show in town. Getting back to normality is what will enable us to continue to support the vulnerable as they self isolate.
It's an idiotic dystopian phrase that in its very choice of vocabulary immediately undoes the message it's trying to express.
It is the phrase used by scientists working in this field.
Isn’t that the computer equivalent of calling for Sumerian speakers?
When I graduated in comp sci in mid 80s, COBOL was still being taught on the sister degree (Data Processing) and there were still jobs around asking for it. I'm guessing that continued into the 90s.
Father of a friend of mine is a COBOL programmer, still working into his 70s at over a grand a day.
Wish I'd gone down that route now, but we were all told it was a dead language 25 years ago!
"In most states across the country, data show that most of those who have tested positive for the virus are women. From the Deep South to New England states and the Midwest, most states have confirmed hundreds if not thousands more cases in women than in men, with a few notable exceptions.
But in states that report the genders of those who have died from the COVID-19 disease, every one has reported more deaths among men than among women, usually by a substantial margin — and scientists don't know why."
While the disease does seem more deadly to (overweight over 50) men ...
It's entirely possible that women have sought out testing and treatment but men haven't as much.
They were also saying that in Chicago , Detroit etc that 72% of deaths were African American
The disease does seem deadlier for ethnic minorities. Something about receptors being biologically different.
I suspect there has to be a genetic component as to why many people get such mild symptoms or none at all. It's not just down to age or co-morbidities: the Prince of Wales seems to have had it very mild, and he's over 70.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Exactly.
If we rule out herd immunity as a strategy, which we seem to have,
Maybe steps like mass antibody testing and compulsory mask wearing (once enough are available) can bring us closer to something that resembles normality, but I've become quite pessimistic of late.
I think things might have been better if we'd never heard the phrase 'herd immunity.'
I agree re. your last paragraph. Mass antibody testing, carrying some sort of 'I've had the virus' ID and, yes, compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and inside public buildings.
It did however confirm how our betters think of us, they do not normally admit to it. Our Lords and Masters think of us as disposable worker ants.
Hard as it is to accept, herd immunity is still the only show in town. Getting back to normality is what will enable us to continue to support the vulnerable as they self isolate.
It's an idiotic dystopian phrase that in its very choice of vocabulary immediately undoes the message it's trying to express.
How the book coming on.. does it have a title yet ?
Thinking about Robert Jenrick's 'faux pas', Grandson 1 drove 40 miles yesterday to bring us a supermarket order. Does it about every 10 days. He puts the shopping on the front doorstep, then comes round and stands outside a window and we chat. Don't want to discourage him, but should we?
There is a point here about "households". In unit terms you are pretty much in a household with your grandson even though you are in separate dwellings, as he's getting your regular shopping. You are keeping your contact points one to one, which is the key to stopping an exponential spread. ( As well as maintaining good social distancing behaviour).
You are talking mince, you would be as well saying they are in unit terms connected to the space station. Pure bollox. If they cannot get shopping any other way it is perfectly fine but they cannot be described as a unit unless you are mentally deranged.
I'm talking about what matters in terms of virus spread. I'm apparently mentally deranged in thinking that's about the only thing that matters right now. But hey!
I wouldn't phrase it so rudely but yes thinking that you are effectively in the same household unit if you get shopping is absurd.
As long as OKC maintains a one to one contact with his grandson and not with other people in virus terms it's one unit regardless of whether they happen to be in one dwelling or two. If you have a hangup with the household term and want to call it something else, fine. The government refers to households in its planning and guidance, so I used the same term.
I'm trying but failing to see a way out of lockdown (or similar) anytime soon, without accepting a much higher death toll. This virus took 3-4 months to move from a single city in China to causing thousands of deaths daily across different continents, with most of the world on lockdown. Even if cases fall, as in Italy/Spain, the virus will still have a much stronger footing to restart in most countries than it did last time.
I can only see two sustainable ways out:
1) For restrictions to be loosened/tightened according to NHS capacity. That means we will have lots more deaths, but gradually build up herd immunity. 2) A vaccine, offering a relatively quick route to herd immunity, but we won't be seeing that until 2021 at the latest.
Of course, there are other potential outcomes, such as people don't get long-term immunity from having the virus (very bad); or it does give immunity and there are far more asymptomatic cases than we thought (very good).
From a personal perspective, my wife and I have broadly accepted that the lockdown is for the long-haul and so are planning accordingly with deliveries. Having a 3 week old baby means we're erring on the side of caution and avoiding physical shops as much as possible.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Doctors can't run the country. For the same reason that haberdashers or butchers can't run it. We end up with a country that is distorted to cater to a single aim. They will need to be told gently to either solve this and let us get back to normal, or just do one and let us get back to normal at some point very soon.
See my post about Fraser Nelson's piece. Government is weighing up the costs of lockdown.
They are and they should.
I fully expect this lockdown to be continued for weeks more but there isn't the slightest chance it will or should continue forever.
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
It would not surprise me as the SNP MPs may well have been told to observe this strictly, whereas the Tories will not have. The SNP got in trouble previously by claiming that all their payrises (they argued against the payrises) would go to charity. No money has ever been recorded going to charity and it is an awkward question that keeps being asked. This time they will have been very much out to avoid a repeat, and unless they need the 10,000, good for them not taking it.
It's entirely possible that the SNP have collectively decided that they won't claim these funds.
Serious question. Are most SNP MPs’ staff in Scotland rather than London anyway?
If so they will already have been remote working and here will have been less need to adapt their processes.
Morning Ydoethur, have you been on the sherry. Why would Scottish staff working in MP's offices be any different from those elsewhere in the country. They have offices in their constituencies like everyone else, barking.
A lot of English MPs at least have office functions in London rather than their constituencies.
This ten grand is to allow them to adapt that model so they can work remotely - e.g. pay for printing on private printers.
I was wondering if the SNP do it differently.
Why would a North of England MP have his office in London other than to fill their boots, there can be no reason why, unless they are London MP's, that an office in London is required or of use in their employment. I am no expert but the norm is that MP's have an office somewhere in their constituency , that at least can be justified. Anything else is a con. Printers cost peanuts , so £10K for ink and paper is well over the top.
Artice in the Telegraph this morning by Fraser Nelson saying that 1) government surprised at how obedient Brits had been in obeying the lockdown, and that consequently the economy is suffering far more than expected, and as a result 2) models 150,000 deaths as a result of lockdown (that includes both deaths due to being poorer and deaths due to the NHS and individuals choosing to delay things like vaccinations, checking of lumps etc. Must admit, there is a lump on the back of my head I keep meaning to get checked out but won't be doing under current circumstances!
Everyone I know is sticking to it in both letter and spirit. Hundreds of deaths a day being printed in big letters on the papers will do that. Also people will know of someone who has gone through the ringer or worse with it. People don't want to get sick generally if they can avoid it.
Stuff like air travel, restaurants, cinemas, cafes are going to be absolubtely mullered even after restrictions lift till we've got a vaccine.
They've not commented themselves yet, but there's chatter on car forums about it and well-known commentators say they've seen the evidence. Funnily enough, people doing the Cannonball tend to lie low for a bit, until they're sure various police forces are not actively looking for them!
There's an awful lot of preparation that goes into this sort of attempt, things like extra fuel tanks in the boot of the car, various radar detectors, police-channel radios and recruiting friends to drive ahead and watch for cops.
The British equivalent is the Jogleball Run (John O'Groats to Land's End). The current record is 9h 36m (Audi S5) if anyone fancies taking advantage of the lockdown to snatch it.
2nd Gen Cayenne Diesel S would be a good choice of weapon. You might get away with a two stop strategy.
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
It would not surprise me as the SNP MPs may well have been told to observe this strictly, whereas the Tories will not have. The SNP got in trouble previously by claiming that all their payrises (they argued against the payrises) would go to charity. No money has ever been recorded going to charity and it is an awkward question that keeps being asked. This time they will have been very much out to avoid a repeat, and unless they need the 10,000, good for them not taking it.
It's entirely possible that the SNP have collectively decided that they won't claim these funds.
Serious question. Are most SNP MPs’ staff in Scotland rather than London anyway?
If so they will already have been remote working and here will have been less need to adapt their processes.
Morning Ydoethur, have you been on the sherry. Why would Scottish staff working in MP's offices be any different from those elsewhere in the country. They have offices in their constituencies like everyone else, barking.
A lot of English MPs at least have office functions in London rather than their constituencies.
This ten grand is to allow them to adapt that model so they can work remotely - e.g. pay for printing on private printers.
I was wondering if the SNP do it differently.
Why would a North of England MP have his office in London other than to fill their boots, there can be no reason why, unless they are London MP's, that an office in London is required or of use in their employment. I am no expert but the norm is that MP's have an office somewhere in their constituency , that at least can be justified. Anything else is a con. Printers cost peanuts , so £10K for ink and paper is well over the top.
£10k is well over the top. A couple of grand could be justified (eg £400 per person for six staff). But £10k is to be fair the cap and it must be accompanied with receipts.
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
It would not surprise me as the SNP MPs may well have been told to observe this strictly, whereas the Tories will not have. The SNP got in trouble previously by claiming that all their payrises (they argued against the payrises) would go to charity. No money has ever been recorded going to charity and it is an awkward question that keeps being asked. This time they will have been very much out to avoid a repeat, and unless they need the 10,000, good for them not taking it.
The £10,000 is for the MPs office activities - ie staff costs. It will be needed so that case-workers in MPs office are able to set up to work from home and deal with constituency complaints / issues.
If SNP MPs aren't planning on using the money then I guess they aren't planning on doing any work for their constituents during this period. Probably makes sense as most day to day matters are devolved to the Scottish parliament, so individuals in a Scottish constituency will be contacting their MSP first rather than MP.
I'm sure the constituents of Edinburgh Central will be missing the regular surgeries held by their MSP.
"In most states across the country, data show that most of those who have tested positive for the virus are women. From the Deep South to New England states and the Midwest, most states have confirmed hundreds if not thousands more cases in women than in men, with a few notable exceptions.
But in states that report the genders of those who have died from the COVID-19 disease, every one has reported more deaths among men than among women, usually by a substantial margin — and scientists don't know why."
While the disease does seem more deadly to (overweight over 50) men ...
It's entirely possible that women have sought out testing and treatment but men haven't as much.
They were also saying that in Chicago , Detroit etc that 72% of deaths were African American
The disease does seem deadlier for ethnic minorities. Something about receptors being biologically different.
There are differences in ACE responses in African derived populations, but I am sure that these effects are smaller than the socio-economic ones. Black populations are concentrated in the inner cities, in overcrowded households and more exposed to public transport and jobs that cannot be shielded.
There may be some predisposition by insulin sensitivity too. It is notable that all the UK Medical Staff mortality has been older men, 1 Nigerian, 2 Sudanese, 2 Arab, 3 South Asian. Of course, medicine is a very multicultural workforce, but these are notably more ethnic, male, and hospital based.
Artice in the Telegraph this morning by Fraser Nelson saying that 1) government surprised at how obedient Brits had been in obeying the lockdown, and that consequently the economy is suffering far more than expected, and as a result 2) models 150,000 deaths as a result of lockdown (that includes both deaths due to being poorer and deaths due to the NHS and individuals choosing to delay things like vaccinations, checking of lumps etc. Must admit, there is a lump on the back of my head I keep meaning to get checked out but won't be doing under current circumstances!
Does anybody else have the feeling that the laws of physics are trying to tell us something?
Well you cannae change them. (For clarity that was meant to be Scottie from Star Trek. Not an excuse for anyone to wobble on about Hannibal).
This goes deep to the question of free will.
WTF are you talking about Toms, give us it in plain English
In a nutshell, from a dictionary, free will is
"the doctrine that the conduct of human beings expresses personal choice and is not simply determined by physical or divine forces."
So, are we, to some extent at least, responsible for the state of things, or shall we be merry for some day we will die?
While a bit of metaphysics and theology is always welcome on Good Friday, I cannot see why this is connected to Scotty of Star Trek.
My point of view is that we probably do not have Free Will, but that people like to believe that they do, and so act accordingly. They then interpret their predestined actions as acts of Free Will.
Perhaps if @Dura_Ace were to explain his driveway antics to Mrs DA in this way she would forgive him. Or possibly hit him with the rolling pin, depending on what she was predestined to do...
If you view Free Will from an objective scientific point of view, then it doesn't exist. If you view it from a subjective mental point of view, then it certainly exists. Are these views incompatible?
If you look at a cone from the side it looks like a triangle. If you look at it from above, it looks like a circle. Totally incompatible until you step back and take a wider view. Perhaps it is the same with Free Will?
On the one hand: The two things I promised myself when this all became obvious was to
(a) exercise more (b) spend less (c) drink less (d) eat better
I've got ca. 3-4 hours extra a day, (b) and (c) are inter-related because pubs and restaurants are closed and as I've got to cook, I might as well make the most of it.
A decent chunk of my mates have approached the shutdown in the same way.
On the other: such effects, as reported in the data above, were always going to happen. There will be a point where they may get too much for some people.
One of my mates, who works in the City, is probably getting a real terms pay rise of about 15-20k pa by working from home. No £500 rail fair is equivalent to £10k pay rise, no £4 coffee at the station, no London prices at lunch time, no beers after work, in time he will save on suits, shoes etc too
A likely long term consequence of this epidemic, in my opinion, is a greater globalisation of services. As people get used to technology to deliver services and work together there is less requirement for teams to be based in one place or near customers.
Yes I was taking with someone I work with, my boss really I guess, yesterday, and he reckons companies will notice the money wasted on renting offices in London and move to skeleton staff on suburban industrial estates with the majority wfh.
I'm trying but failing to see a way out of lockdown (or similar) anytime soon, without accepting a much higher death toll. This virus took 3-4 months to move from a single city in China to causing thousands of deaths daily across different continents, with most of the world on lockdown. Even if cases fall, as in Italy/Spain, the virus will still have a much stronger footing to restart in most countries than it did last time.
I can only see two sustainable ways out:
1) For restrictions to be loosened/tightened according to NHS capacity. That means we will have lots more deaths, but gradually build up herd immunity. 2) A vaccine, offering a relatively quick route to herd immunity, but we won't be seeing that until 2021 at the latest.
Of course, there are other potential outcomes, such as people don't get long-term immunity from having the virus (very bad); or it does give immunity and there are far more asymptomatic cases than we thought (very good).
From a personal perspective, my wife and I have broadly accepted that the lockdown is for the long-haul and so are planning accordingly with deliveries. Having a 3 week old baby means we're erring on the side of caution and avoiding physical shops as much as possible.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Doctors can't run the country. For the same reason that haberdashers or butchers can't run it. We end up with a country that is distorted to cater to a single aim. They will need to be told gently to either solve this and let us get back to normal, or just do one and let us get back to normal at some point very soon.
We just leave it to lawyers, which explains why the country is a shambles.
If i was answering that survey I would say that i dont really support the level of lockdown, am more sad (rather than depressed) , having less sleep (although this may just be the hot weather) , food ok, financial worries ok (although pension taken a hammering and do worry for the country and people as a whole), booze ok ,argung (apart from on here!) ok
Not weather?! Jeezo, that goes to show the weather variations in a small(ish) island. Centra! heating still burning up £s here.
Indeed. The last 3 days in particular have been thr arrival of summer in the south west. Horribly hot at night.
"Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid"
Seems Cabinet is split on the lockdown. Witty is very aware of indirect deaths.
After spending the last 9 years arguing against the very notion that Conservative policies have caused any excess deaths amongst the population it will be a hard path for the cabinet to argue that now government policy is causing excess deaths.
I'm trying but failing to see a way out of lockdown (or similar) anytime soon, without accepting a much higher death toll. This virus took 3-4 months to move from a single city in China to causing thousands of deaths daily across different continents, with most of the world on lockdown. Even if cases fall, as in Italy/Spain, the virus will still have a much stronger footing to restart in most countries than it did last time.
I can only see two sustainable ways out:
1) For restrictions to be loosened/tightened according to NHS capacity. That means we will have lots more deaths, but gradually build up herd immunity. 2) A vaccine, offering a relatively quick route to herd immunity, but we won't be seeing that until 2021 at the latest.
Of course, there are other potential outcomes, such as people don't get long-term immunity from having the virus (very bad); or it does give immunity and there are far more asymptomatic cases than we thought (very good).
From a personal perspective, my wife and I have broadly accepted that the lockdown is for the long-haul and so are planning accordingly with deliveries. Having a 3 week old baby means we're erring on the side of caution and avoiding physical shops as much as possible.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Doctors can't run the country. For the same reason that haberdashers or butchers can't run it. We end up with a country that is distorted to cater to a single aim. They will need to be told gently to either solve this and let us get back to normal, or just do one and let us get back to normal at some point very soon.
See my post about Fraser Nelson's piece. Government is weighing up the costs of lockdown.
They are and they should.
I fully expect this lockdown to be continued for weeks more but there isn't the slightest chance it will or should continue forever.
I can't see it lasting beyond May. The economic damage and indirect mental health crisis will be too great.
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
It would not surprise me as the SNP MPs may well have been told to observe this strictly, whereas the Tories will not have. The SNP got in trouble previously by claiming that all their payrises (they argued against the payrises) would go to charity. No money has ever been recorded going to charity and it is an awkward question that keeps being asked. This time they will have been very much out to avoid a repeat, and unless they need the 10,000, good for them not taking it.
It's entirely possible that the SNP have collectively decided that they won't claim these funds.
Serious question. Are most SNP MPs’ staff in Scotland rather than London anyway?
If so they will already have been remote working and here will have been less need to adapt their processes.
Morning Ydoethur, have you been on the sherry. Why would Scottish staff working in MP's offices be any different from those elsewhere in the country. They have offices in their constituencies like everyone else, barking.
A lot of English MPs at least have office functions in London rather than their constituencies.
This ten grand is to allow them to adapt that model so they can work remotely - e.g. pay for printing on private printers.
I was wondering if the SNP do it differently.
Why would a North of England MP have his office in London other than to fill their boots, there can be no reason why, unless they are London MP's, that an office in London is required or of use in their employment. I am no expert but the norm is that MP's have an office somewhere in their constituency , that at least can be justified. Anything else is a con. Printers cost peanuts , so £10K for ink and paper is well over the top.
isn't the whole point that MPs office staff do not have to work in the constituency office, but rather work from their own homes? Thereby obeying the government advice?
Does anybody else have the feeling that the laws of physics are trying to tell us something?
Well you cannae change them. (For clarity that was meant to be Scottie from Star Trek. Not an excuse for anyone to wobble on about Hannibal).
This goes deep to the question of free will.
WTF are you talking about Toms, give us it in plain English
In a nutshell, from a dictionary, free will is
"the doctrine that the conduct of human beings expresses personal choice and is not simply determined by physical or divine forces."
So, are we, to some extent at least, responsible for the state of things, or shall we be merry for some day we will die?
While a bit of metaphysics and theology is always welcome on Good Friday, I cannot see why this is connected to Scotty of Star Trek.
My point of view is that we probably do not have Free Will, but that people like to believe that they do, and so act accordingly. They then interpret their predestined actions as acts of Free Will.
Perhaps if @Dura_Ace were to explain his driveway antics to Mrs DA in this way she would forgive him. Or possibly hit him with the rolling pin, depending on what she was predestined to do...
If you view Free Will from an objective scientific point of view, then it doesn't exist. If you view it from a subjective mental point of view, then it certainly exists. Are these views incompatible?
If you look at a cone from the side it looks like a triangle. If you look at it from above, it looks like a circle. Totally incompatible until you step back and take a wider view. Perhaps it is the same with Free Will?
Exactly this conundrum is one of the ones that Kant's philosophy is trying to solve - which is one of the things that makes him so interesting.
"Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid"
Seems Cabinet is split on the lockdown. Witty is very aware of indirect deaths.
After spending the last 9 years arguing against the very notion that Conservative policies have caused any excess deaths amongst the population it will be a hard path for the cabinet to argue that now government policy is causing excess deaths.
"In most states across the country, data show that most of those who have tested positive for the virus are women. From the Deep South to New England states and the Midwest, most states have confirmed hundreds if not thousands more cases in women than in men, with a few notable exceptions.
But in states that report the genders of those who have died from the COVID-19 disease, every one has reported more deaths among men than among women, usually by a substantial margin — and scientists don't know why."
While the disease does seem more deadly to (overweight over 50) men ...
It's entirely possible that women have sought out testing and treatment but men haven't as much.
They were also saying that in Chicago , Detroit etc that 72% of deaths were African American
The disease does seem deadlier for ethnic minorities. Something about receptors being biologically different.
I suspect there has to be a genetic component as to why many people get such mild symptoms or none at all. It's not just down to age or co-morbidities: the Prince of Wales seems to have had it very mild, and he's over 70.
I am no medic, but I do wonder whether some people's immune system overreacts?
The effect on house prices could be interesting. I'm not sure I'd swap my house for a london flat right now even if the flat was worth multiple times what my house was worth pre corona.
"Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid"
Seems Cabinet is split on the lockdown. Witty is very aware of indirect deaths.
After spending the last 9 years arguing against the very notion that Conservative policies have caused any excess deaths amongst the population it will be a hard path for the cabinet to argue that now government policy is causing excess deaths.
Reverse ferreting whilst on the head of a pin Govey is the man to do it though.
"Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid"
Seems Cabinet is split on the lockdown. Witty is very aware of indirect deaths.
After spending the last 9 years arguing against the very notion that Conservative policies have caused any excess deaths amongst the population it will be a hard path for the cabinet to argue that now government policy is causing excess deaths.
It turns out that matters when the financial interests of the wealthy are at stake. Who would have guessed?
I doubt the same sources are going to be so forthcoming about the avoidable deaths that would be expected from a no-deal end to the transition period on 31 December.
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
It would not surprise me as the SNP MPs may well have been told to observe this strictly, whereas the Tories will not have. The SNP got in trouble previously by claiming that all their payrises (they argued against the payrises) would go to charity. No money has ever been recorded going to charity and it is an awkward question that keeps being asked. This time they will have been very much out to avoid a repeat, and unless they need the 10,000, good for them not taking it.
The £10,000 is for the MPs office activities - ie staff costs. It will be needed so that case-workers in MPs office are able to set up to work from home and deal with constituency complaints / issues.
If SNP MPs aren't planning on using the money then I guess they aren't planning on doing any work for their constituents during this period. Probably makes sense as most day to day matters are devolved to the Scottish parliament, so individuals in a Scottish constituency will be contacting their MSP first rather than MP.
Yep. MP I know of employs about 4 people doing casework - not all full-time. But if working from home all will presumably need parliament-approved laptops etc. if they are to continue providing a service. Anecdotally the enquiries from constituents have significantly increased. Very generous of all those SNP MPs to fund this extra expense out of their own pockets. Cough.
Isn’t that the computer equivalent of calling for Sumerian speakers?
When I graduated in comp sci in mid 80s, COBOL was still being taught on the sister degree (Data Processing) and there were still jobs around asking for it. I'm guessing that continued into the 90s.
Father of a friend of mine is a COBOL programmer, still working into his 70s at over a grand a day.
Wish I'd gone down that route now, but we were all told it was a dead language 25 years ago!
Robert Glass wrote a book called "Facts and Fallacies of Software Engineering" around the turn of the millenium. In Fact 30 he pointed out that COBOL is a hardy perennial of a language and would be sticking around for years to come and that if you looked at job postings the number requesting COBOL had been increasing not decreasing.
Doctors can't run the country. For the same reason that haberdashers or butchers can't run it. We end up with a country that is distorted to cater to a single aim. They will need to be told gently to either solve this and let us get back to normal, or just do one and let us get back to normal at some point very soon.
You're entitled to your view but it's a small minority at the moment - most people approve of the lockdown and if anything want it to be stricter.
On deaths (cheery subject that it is), Ministers should also consider the unpleasant nature and frequent after-effects of the illness. I'm mildly higher risk as I'm 70. If there was merely a 5% risk of dying as I went about my business, i'd probably accept it. But a high probability of catching it and having a horrible illness, plus a 5% chance of dying, no thanks.
An interesting phenomenon that we're discussing in my job is that a significant proportion of the staff positively prefer working from home (no commuting, pleasant environment) and seem to be almost as effective in our (office) jobs. Most would like to be able to get out more in their free time, but we're drawing the conclusion that if and when things return to quasi-normality, we may switch from "you can work at home 1 day a week if you want to" (the current policy for most) to "we encourage you to work 1-2 days a week at home"). That facilitates hot-desking so there are savings to be had in office space as well as satisfaction for individuals.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Exactly.
If we rule out herd immunity as a strategy, which we seem to have,
Maybe steps like mass antibody testing and compulsory mask wearing (once enough are available) can bring us closer to something that resembles normality, but I've become quite pessimistic of late.
I think things might have been better if we'd never heard the phrase 'herd immunity.'
I agree re. your last paragraph. Mass antibody testing, carrying some sort of 'I've had the virus' ID and, yes, compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and inside public buildings.
It did however confirm how our betters think of us, they do not normally admit to it. Our Lords and Masters think of us as disposable worker ants.
Hard as it is to accept, herd immunity is still the only show in town. Getting back to normality is what will enable us to continue to support the vulnerable as they self isolate.
Whitty, Hancock and Johnson have led from the front in embracing herd immunity as the only long term solution, although I feel Johnson may have had some unfair help in achieving his.
Isn’t that the computer equivalent of calling for Sumerian speakers?
When I graduated in comp sci in mid 80s, COBOL was still being taught on the sister degree (Data Processing) and there were still jobs around asking for it. I'm guessing that continued into the 90s.
Father of a friend of mine is a COBOL programmer, still working into his 70s at over a grand a day.
Wish I'd gone down that route now, but we were all told it was a dead language 25 years ago!
Languages never seem to die out completely. Legacy stuff lying around. I know someone who is doing BCPL.
On the one hand: The two things I promised myself when this all became obvious was to
(a) exercise more (b) spend less (c) drink less (d) eat better
I've got ca. 3-4 hours extra a day, (b) and (c) are inter-related because pubs and restaurants are closed and as I've got to cook, I might as well make the most of it.
A decent chunk of my mates have approached the shutdown in the same way.
On the other: such effects, as reported in the data above, were always going to happen. There will be a point where they may get too much for some people.
One of my mates, who works in the City, is probably getting a real terms pay rise of about 15-20k pa by working from home. No £500 rail fair is equivalent to £10k pay rise, no £4 coffee at the station, no London prices at lunch time, no beers after work, in time he will save on suits, shoes etc too
A likely long term consequence of this epidemic, in my opinion, is a greater globalisation of services. As people get used to technology to deliver services and work together there is less requirement for teams to be based in one place or near customers.
Yes I was taking with someone I work with, my boss really I guess, yesterday, and he reckons companies will notice the money wasted on renting offices in London and move to skeleton staff on suburban industrial estates with the majority wfh.
This was already happening - hot desking. For those that haven't encountered it, this is the practise of having non-assigned desks in the company office, with less desks than the number of employees.
This occurs because if you look around a standard open plan office, it is rare to see more than 70% of the desks occupied.
Most people hate it - if you don't like WFH or don't have the space at home it is unpleasant.
The next stage in the evolution of this is companies paying their employees for home working facilities - some places are already giving them office chairs. This will be followed by statutory rights in due course, I expect.
Artice in the Telegraph this morning by Fraser Nelson saying that 1) government surprised at how obedient Brits had been in obeying the lockdown, and that consequently the economy is suffering far more than expected, and as a result 2) models 150,000 deaths as a result of lockdown (that includes both deaths due to being poorer and deaths due to the NHS and individuals choosing to delay things like vaccinations, checking of lumps etc. Must admit, there is a lump on the back of my head I keep meaning to get checked out but won't be doing under current circumstances!
Maybe greater than the number deaths during lockdown.
Completely ignores the counterfactual: the huge number of deaths that lockdown is avoiding; that the tsunami of disease would overwhelm the health service to the extent that it wouldn't be able to treat anything like the number of conventional diseases; that an out of control epidemic has its own economic implications, as we are seeing in the relative better economic performance in Asia
Thinking about Robert Jenrick's 'faux pas', Grandson 1 drove 40 miles yesterday to bring us a supermarket order. Does it about every 10 days. He puts the shopping on the front doorstep, then comes round and stands outside a window and we chat. Don't want to discourage him, but should we?
There is a point here about "households". In unit terms you are pretty much in a household with your grandson even though you are in separate dwellings, as he's getting your regular shopping. You are keeping your contact points one to one, which is the key to stopping an exponential spread. ( As well as maintaining good social distancing behaviour).
You are talking mince, you would be as well saying they are in unit terms connected to the space station. Pure bollox. If they cannot get shopping any other way it is perfectly fine but they cannot be described as a unit unless you are mentally deranged.
I'm talking about what matters in terms of virus spread. I'm apparently mentally deranged in thinking that's about the only thing that matters right now. But hey!
I wouldn't phrase it so rudely but yes thinking that you are effectively in the same household unit if you get shopping is absurd.
I was not being rude , merely pointing out he was talking absolute bollox.
They've not commented themselves yet, but there's chatter on car forums about it and well-known commentators say they've seen the evidence. Funnily enough, people doing the Cannonball tend to lie low for a bit, until they're sure various police forces are not actively looking for them!
There's an awful lot of preparation that goes into this sort of attempt, things like extra fuel tanks in the boot of the car, various radar detectors, police-channel radios and recruiting friends to drive ahead and watch for cops.
The British equivalent is the Jogleball Run (John O'Groats to Land's End). The current record is 9h 36m (Audi S5) if anyone fancies taking advantage of the lockdown to snatch it.
2nd Gen Cayenne Diesel S would be a good choice of weapon. You might get away with a two stop strategy.
I'd be surprised if someone doesn't attempt it, but reckon that the police in Devon and Cornwall might be stopping everything that comes into the county looking for tourists. Maybe leave J O'G at 8pm and try to finish before sunrise?
If you've not got time to add fuel tanks then yes, a big diesel is probably a good idea in the UK. An A6 or XF diesel might well do it with just the one stop.
Surprise Surprise, as I said yesterday , Tories filling their boots. THE BLACK SALTIRE#FBSI
· 11m Hearing that none of the SNP Mps took the £10,000 offered to them for working at home. Jeremy Corbyn also refused. The Only Tory not to take it was surprisingly Jacob Rees Mogg Thank you to my source I am sure this will clarified shortly
No source. Smells like bovine manure.
It would not surprise me as the SNP MPs may well have been told to observe this strictly, whereas the Tories will not have. The SNP got in trouble previously by claiming that all their payrises (they argued against the payrises) would go to charity. No money has ever been recorded going to charity and it is an awkward question that keeps being asked. This time they will have been very much out to avoid a repeat, and unless they need the 10,000, good for them not taking it.
It's entirely possible that the SNP have collectively decided that they won't claim these funds.
Serious question. Are most SNP MPs’ staff in Scotland rather than London anyway?
If so they will already have been remote working and here will have been less need to adapt their processes.
Morning Ydoethur, have you been on the sherry. Why would Scottish staff working in MP's offices be any different from those elsewhere in the country. They have offices in their constituencies like everyone else, barking.
A lot of English MPs at least have office functions in London rather than their constituencies.
This ten grand is to allow them to adapt that model so they can work remotely - e.g. pay for printing on private printers.
I was wondering if the SNP do it differently.
Why would a North of England MP have his office in London other than to fill their boots, there can be no reason why, unless they are London MP's, that an office in London is required or of use in their employment. I am no expert but the norm is that MP's have an office somewhere in their constituency , that at least can be justified. Anything else is a con. Printers cost peanuts , so £10K for ink and paper is well over the top.
isn't the whole point that MPs office staff do not have to work in the constituency office, but rather work from their own homes? Thereby obeying the government advice?
Quite. And most Scottish MPs will have most of their constituents case work covered by MSPs rather than themselves so their costs will be lower. Still if it allows the SNP to grievance monger its all good.
On the one hand: The two things I promised myself when this all became obvious was to
(a) exercise more (b) spend less (c) drink less (d) eat better
I've got ca. 3-4 hours extra a day, (b) and (c) are inter-related because pubs and restaurants are closed and as I've got to cook, I might as well make the most of it.
A decent chunk of my mates have approached the shutdown in the same way.
On the other: such effects, as reported in the data above, were always going to happen. There will be a point where they may get too much for some people.
One of my mates, who works in the City, is probably getting a real terms pay rise of about 15-20k pa by working from home. No £500 rail fair is equivalent to £10k pay rise, no £4 coffee at the station, no London prices at lunch time, no beers after work, in time he will save on suits, shoes etc too
A likely long term consequence of this epidemic, in my opinion, is a greater globalisation of services. As people get used to technology to deliver services and work together there is less requirement for teams to be based in one place or near customers.
Yes I was taking with someone I work with, my boss really I guess, yesterday, and he reckons companies will notice the money wasted on renting offices in London and move to skeleton staff on suburban industrial estates with the majority wfh.
This was already happening - hot desking. For those that haven't encountered it, this is the practise of having non-assigned desks in the company office, with less desks than the number of employees.
This occurs because if you look around a standard open plan office, it is rare to see more than 70% of the desks occupied.
Most people hate it - if you don't like WFH or don't have the space at home it is unpleasant.
The next stage in the evolution of this is companies paying their employees for home working facilities - some places are already giving them office chairs. This will be followed by statutory rights in due course, I expect.
They were hot desking in my bit well into the lockdown. Stupid ****ers.
I'm trying but failing to see a way out of lockdown (or similar) anytime soon, without accepting a much higher death toll. This virus took 3-4 months to move from a single city in China to causing thousands of deaths daily across different continents, with most of the world on lockdown. Even if cases fall, as in Italy/Spain, the virus will still have a much stronger footing to restart in most countries than it did last time.
I can only see two sustainable ways out:
1) For restrictions to be loosened/tightened according to NHS capacity. That means we will have lots more deaths, but gradually build up herd immunity. 2) A vaccine, offering a relatively quick route to herd immunity, but we won't be seeing that until 2021 at the latest.
Of course, there are other potential outcomes, such as people don't get long-term immunity from having the virus (very bad); or it does give immunity and there are far more asymptomatic cases than we thought (very good).
From a personal perspective, my wife and I have broadly accepted that the lockdown is for the long-haul and so are planning accordingly with deliveries. Having a 3 week old baby means we're erring on the side of caution and avoiding physical shops as much as possible.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Doctors can't run the country. For the same reason that haberdashers or butchers can't run it. We end up with a country that is distorted to cater to a single aim. They will need to be told gently to either solve this and let us get back to normal, or just do one and let us get back to normal at some point very soon.
We just leave it to lawyers, which explains why the country is a shambles.
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, no one trade, profession or whatever can do it alone. Too many ingrained thought patterns.
The Telegraph really does seem the most desperate of anyone out there to end the lockdown.
Do the Barclay Brothers still own it? My neighbour got me a copy because there were no copes of the Times . Its a rag in comparison with what it used to be and blooming difficult to read as a broadsheet. It was sunny but windy in the garden. I won't be buying it again until its sorts itself out.
Isn’t that the computer equivalent of calling for Sumerian speakers?
When I graduated in comp sci in mid 80s, COBOL was still being taught on the sister degree (Data Processing) and there were still jobs around asking for it. I'm guessing that continued into the 90s.
Father of a friend of mine is a COBOL programmer, still working into his 70s at over a grand a day.
Wish I'd gone down that route now, but we were all told it was a dead language 25 years ago!
Robert Glass wrote a book called "Facts and Fallacies of Software Engineering" around the turn of the millenium. In Fact 30 he pointed out that COBOL is a hardy perennial of a language and would be sticking around for years to come and that if you looked at job postings the number requesting COBOL had been increasing not decreasing.
Thinking about Robert Jenrick's 'faux pas', Grandson 1 drove 40 miles yesterday to bring us a supermarket order. Does it about every 10 days. He puts the shopping on the front doorstep, then comes round and stands outside a window and we chat. Don't want to discourage him, but should we?
There is a point here about "households". In unit terms you are pretty much in a household with your grandson even though you are in separate dwellings, as he's getting your regular shopping. You are keeping your contact points one to one, which is the key to stopping an exponential spread. ( As well as maintaining good social distancing behaviour).
You are talking mince, you would be as well saying they are in unit terms connected to the space station. Pure bollox. If they cannot get shopping any other way it is perfectly fine but they cannot be described as a unit unless you are mentally deranged.
I'm talking about what matters in terms of virus spread. I'm apparently mentally deranged in thinking that's about the only thing that matters right now. But hey!
It was a case of whether he was breaking the rules of the lockdown re whether it was an essential journey or not. He is being safe virus wise. If it was to save his starving grandparents I am sure it is perfectly acceptable, not so sure if it had been to just take over a box of chocolates.
Does anybody else have the feeling that the laws of physics are trying to tell us something?
Well you cannae change them. (For clarity that was meant to be Scottie from Star Trek. Not an excuse for anyone to wobble on about Hannibal).
This goes deep to the question of free will.
WTF are you talking about Toms, give us it in plain English
In a nutshell, from a dictionary, free will is
"the doctrine that the conduct of human beings expresses personal choice and is not simply determined by physical or divine forces."
So, are we, to some extent at least, responsible for the state of things, or shall we be merry for some day we will die?
While a bit of metaphysics and theology is always welcome on Good Friday, I cannot see why this is connected to Scotty of Star Trek.
My point of view is that we probably do not have Free Will, but that people like to believe that they do, and so act accordingly. They then interpret their predestined actions as acts of Free Will.
Perhaps if @Dura_Ace were to explain his driveway antics to Mrs DA in this way she would forgive him. Or possibly hit him with the rolling pin, depending on what she was predestined to do...
If Foxy is correct it is mere chance that this is so for his opinion now was decided before he was born by laws of physics outside his or anyone's control. Which is why so many people think that, whatever the science opinion, there is more to be said about free will.
Chaos theory means that the actions complex systems cannot be predicted in detail. Humans are complex systems.
The prediction part is itself... complex... trends and features at some levels can be predicted.
Human beliefs and structured personalities can be seen as an attempt to bring order to the chaos of the universe - a set of rules. But who actually follows their personal rules all the time?
Religious extremism and political totalitarian ideologies are of interest when examined with this is mind.
True. Predicting what X thinks is a tricky art for all those reasons. But those who believe the laws of physics determine everything, while unable to predict all the outcomes (because of scale and complexity), none the less believe that their opinions and actions right now are fully decided by the laws of physics before they were born. If they don't think that they are free will supporters (like me).
The point about Chaos theory is that even with complete information on the start state (down to the quantum level) any complex physical system will rapidly build up random changes - invalidating any detailed, long term prediction.
Even given your total quantum level state at the moment of birth, your detail actions 1 day later would not be predictable.
Isn’t that the computer equivalent of calling for Sumerian speakers?
When I graduated in comp sci in mid 80s, COBOL was still being taught on the sister degree (Data Processing) and there were still jobs around asking for it. I'm guessing that continued into the 90s.
Father of a friend of mine is a COBOL programmer, still working into his 70s at over a grand a day.
Wish I'd gone down that route now, but we were all told it was a dead language 25 years ago!
Robert Glass wrote a book called "Facts and Fallacies of Software Engineering" around the turn of the millenium. In Fact 30 he pointed out that COBOL is a hardy perennial of a language and would be sticking around for years to come and that if you looked at job postings the number requesting COBOL had been increasing not decreasing.
Yep, it seems that the legacy systems have had a much longer legacy that a lot of people thought in the '90s. Glass had the foresight to see it.
Maybe I should change my lockdown PMP course for a COBOL course instead?
I'm trying but failing to see a way out of lockdown (or similar) anytime soon, without accepting a much higher death toll. This virus took 3-4 months to move from a single city in China to causing thousands of deaths daily across different continents, with most of the world on lockdown. Even if cases fall, as in Italy/Spain, the virus will still have a much stronger footing to restart in most countries than it did last time.
I can only see two sustainable ways out:
1) For restrictions to be loosened/tightened according to NHS capacity. That means we will have lots more deaths, but gradually build up herd immunity. 2) A vaccine, offering a relatively quick route to herd immunity, but we won't be seeing that until 2021 at the latest.
Of course, there are other potential outcomes, such as people don't get long-term immunity from having the virus (very bad); or it does give immunity and there are far more asymptomatic cases than we thought (very good).
From a personal perspective, my wife and I have broadly accepted that the lockdown is for the long-haul and so are planning accordingly with deliveries. Having a 3 week old baby means we're erring on the side of caution and avoiding physical shops as much as possible.
The doctors/epidemiologists advising the government have effectively ruled 1) out. The restrictions will continue until cases have been reduced to a very low level. The restrictions will then be slightly loosened until cases rise again when the restrictions will be reimposed. There will never be enough cases for herd immunity to be reached. The only other scenario the doctors will accept for restrictions to be lifted is if a vaccine is available that enables herd immunity to be reached. No doctor will admit this.
See Question Time last night when the epidemiologist was asked what was required for the lockdown to be lifted, and he did not answer the question. The doctors are running the country, and the elected politicians are taking orders from them. If this continues and no vaccine is found the lockdown could last more than 50 years.
Doctors can't run the country. For the same reason that haberdashers or butchers can't run it. We end up with a country that is distorted to cater to a single aim. They will need to be told gently to either solve this and let us get back to normal, or just do one and let us get back to normal at some point very soon.
See my post about Fraser Nelson's piece. Government is weighing up the costs of lockdown.
They are and they should.
I fully expect this lockdown to be continued for weeks more but there isn't the slightest chance it will or should continue forever.
I can't see it lasting beyond May. The economic damage and indirect mental health crisis will be too great.
I think relaxation in June is the earliest possible given we are not at peak yet and deaths will likely still be very high throughout May. Even if cases plummet in May the politics of relaxation then would look bad I suspect. Maybe July.
"In most states across the country, data show that most of those who have tested positive for the virus are women. From the Deep South to New England states and the Midwest, most states have confirmed hundreds if not thousands more cases in women than in men, with a few notable exceptions.
But in states that report the genders of those who have died from the COVID-19 disease, every one has reported more deaths among men than among women, usually by a substantial margin — and scientists don't know why."
While the disease does seem more deadly to (overweight over 50) men ...
It's entirely possible that women have sought out testing and treatment but men haven't as much.
They were also saying that in Chicago , Detroit etc that 72% of deaths were African American
The disease does seem deadlier for ethnic minorities. Something about receptors being biologically different.
I suspect there has to be a genetic component as to why many people get such mild symptoms or none at all. It's not just down to age or co-morbidities: the Prince of Wales seems to have had it very mild, and he's over 70.
I am no medic, but I do wonder whether some people's immune system overreacts?
Yes, the fatal part of Covid19 is the second phase, when the inflammatory "cytokine storm" gets out of control, and rather than fighting the virus becomes a problem in itself. This is the perceived cause of the lung damage, intravascular clotting, hypotension etc. The tricky bit is controlling it, without suppressing necessary host antiviral inflammation.
The molecular biology of these inflammatory cascades is quite complex, and many things influence them from underlying conditions to pharmaceuticals to gender. Women tend to have more reactive immune systems that nip it in the bud sooner is the theory.
One issue with a mass movement to "work from home" is that many people's home insurance doesn't cover long term work from home.
Lots do but lots don't.
My partner has been WFH since forever. On the home insurance front I've only ever seen 'running a business' from home as potentially affecting home insurance and on the comparison sites. You're not running a business from home if you're working from home.
Thinking about Robert Jenrick's 'faux pas', Grandson 1 drove 40 miles yesterday to bring us a supermarket order. Does it about every 10 days. He puts the shopping on the front doorstep, then comes round and stands outside a window and we chat. Don't want to discourage him, but should we?
Not unless you can get someone else to do it for you
We could probably, but he wants to look after his Grannie.
Not a bad thing and if anybody ever said anything you can safely say you have no alternative. We have not seen our grandkids for months now apart from skype and it is not pleasant.
Doctors can't run the country. For the same reason that haberdashers or butchers can't run it. We end up with a country that is distorted to cater to a single aim. They will need to be told gently to either solve this and let us get back to normal, or just do one and let us get back to normal at some point very soon.
You're entitled to your view but it's a small minority at the moment - most people approve of the lockdown and if anything want it to be stricter.
On deaths (cheery subject that it is), Ministers should also consider the unpleasant nature and frequent after-effects of the illness. I'm mildly higher risk as I'm 70. If there was merely a 5% risk of dying as I went about my business, i'd probably accept it. But a high probability of catching it and having a horrible illness, plus a 5% chance of dying, no thanks.
An interesting phenomenon that we're discussing in my job is that a significant proportion of the staff positively prefer working from home (no commuting, pleasant environment) and seem to be almost as effective in our (office) jobs. Most would like to be able to get out more in their free time, but we're drawing the conclusion that if and when things return to quasi-normality, we may switch from "you can work at home 1 day a week if you want to" (the current policy for most) to "we encourage you to work 1-2 days a week at home"). That facilitates hot-desking so there are savings to be had in office space as well as satisfaction for individuals.
I've found senior people in particular have been to be more effective because they actually have time to do things personally not bothered by minor or innane stuff, so can more effectively lead their core staff.
Isn’t that the computer equivalent of calling for Sumerian speakers?
Absolutely, so PB is the place to go. I think @Richard_Nabavi is fluent.
A comptent programmer can learn COBOL too hack around in within hours. A week to be quite proficient.
The issue is really the elaborate interactions between complexes of programs and the databases. You usually find that the limitations of the COBOL system have been engineered round - by 100s of thousands of lines of stored procedures in the database - undocumented and un tested. Arrrrrrrrrrrgh...
On the one hand: The two things I promised myself when this all became obvious was to
(a) exercise more (b) spend less (c) drink less (d) eat better
I've got ca. 3-4 hours extra a day, (b) and (c) are inter-related because pubs and restaurants are closed and as I've got to cook, I might as well make the most of it.
A decent chunk of my mates have approached the shutdown in the same way.
On the other: such effects, as reported in the data above, were always going to happen. There will be a point where they may get too much for some people.
One of my mates, who works in the City, is probably getting a real terms pay rise of about 15-20k pa by working from home. No £500 rail fair is equivalent to £10k pay rise, no £4 coffee at the station, no London prices at lunch time, no beers after work, in time he will save on suits, shoes etc too
A likely long term consequence of this epidemic, in my opinion, is a greater globalisation of services. As people get used to technology to deliver services and work together there is less requirement for teams to be based in one place or near customers.
Yes I was taking with someone I work with, my boss really I guess, yesterday, and he reckons companies will notice the money wasted on renting offices in London and move to skeleton staff on suburban industrial estates with the majority wfh.
This. But also if you are recruiting for an office your pool is limited to those in the area that can commute to it. Now you can recruit the best or the cheapest from wherever you can find them. The argument up to now is that teams have to be in the same place to be efficient. Once you close the office that orthodoxy no longer applies.
Comments
1) More from existing suppliers.
2) Build existing designs via new contractors.
3) Build new designs via new contractors.
4) More via asking other countries.
On the motorway there might be a case for police relaxing their vigilance. On near empty roads, you can safely do much more than 70mph.
Bit different on other roads, where the absence of traffic might induce a false sense of safety.
Lot of cyclists on the country roads around here. Other road users giving them plenty of room.
"All claims will be published in the normal way."
https://www.theipsa.org.uk/news/coronavirus-guidance/coronavirus-faqs/
The answer is that people will push the guidelines and get out and about. In some ways we are paying for the slow uptake of the UK Government. In other ways, we're just paying the price for a vicious virus.
In the absence of a cure or treatment the grim reality is that the lockdown will have to ease and it will do so anyway. Yes, people will die. But the consequences of a world of cooped up people are even more dire.
This ten grand is to allow them to adapt that model so they can work remotely - e.g. pay for printing on private printers.
I was wondering if the SNP do it differently.
Calling COBOL programmers
I did a similar trip (SF to Philly) in 1969. Took 12 days.
It's entirely possible that women have sought out testing and treatment but men haven't as much.
I agree re. your last paragraph. Mass antibody testing, carrying some sort of 'I've had the virus' ID and, yes, compulsory wearing of masks on public transport and inside public buildings.
The theological aspects of Free Will are mirrored in more contemporary debates about nature and nurture. Is gender difference genetic, or does societal influence define us? For example. Ultimately we have rephrased theological debate to current language and knowledge, but the philosophical question is not much different.
If they cannot get shopping any other way it is perfectly fine but they cannot be described as a unit unless you are mentally deranged.
Sadly, the number plate on MV seems to have fallen off so I can't tell if I have inadvertently exceeded any speed limits.
Not the slightest reason why you shouldn't drive in your car to go for some exercise.
Also not the slightest reason why you shouldn't go sunbathing. I guess the theoretical reason this has been brought in is because of fears crowds of people will do it and bunch up. I suspect the real reason though is that it's not a good optic when hundreds of people are dying and NHS staff are fighting for lives. If you're sunbathing let's say 10 metres away from someone you're not going to spread or catch the virus.
But the 'law' is an ass sometimes. The science of this virus isn't what has driven 'some' of the lockdown regulations and advice.
"Work is being done to add it all up and produce a figure for “avoidable deaths” that could, in the long-term, be caused by lockdown. I’m told the early attempts have produced a figure of 150,000, far greater than those expected to die of Covid"
Seems Cabinet is split on the lockdown. Witty is very aware of indirect deaths.
Schrodinger didn't actually want to gas cats to death.
[I assume].
There's an awful lot of preparation that goes into this sort of attempt, things like extra fuel tanks in the boot of the car, various radar detectors, police-channel radios and recruiting friends to drive ahead and watch for cops.
Here's the video of the guys who last set the record, a few months ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6s9o6uIWZw
Must admit, there is a lump on the back of my head I keep meaning to get checked out but won't be doing under current circumstances!
Wish I'd gone down that route now, but we were all told it was a dead language 25 years ago!
I fully expect this lockdown to be continued for weeks more but there isn't the slightest chance it will or should continue forever.
I am no expert but the norm is that MP's have an office somewhere in their constituency , that at least can be justified. Anything else is a con. Printers cost peanuts , so £10K for ink and paper is well over the top.
Stuff like air travel, restaurants, cinemas, cafes are going to be absolubtely mullered even after restrictions lift till we've got a vaccine.
2nd Gen Cayenne Diesel S would be a good choice of weapon. You might get away with a two stop strategy.
There may be some predisposition by insulin sensitivity too. It is notable that all the UK Medical Staff mortality has been older men, 1 Nigerian, 2 Sudanese, 2 Arab, 3 South Asian. Of course, medicine is a very multicultural workforce, but these are notably more ethnic, male, and hospital based.
If you view it from a subjective mental point of view, then it certainly exists.
Are these views incompatible?
If you look at a cone from the side it looks like a triangle. If you look at it from above, it looks like a circle. Totally incompatible until you step back and take a wider view. Perhaps it is the same with Free Will?
It sings its song in MAY
In the middle of June, it changes tune
And in July it flies away
But things may be different in the south :-)
I doubt the same sources are going to be so forthcoming about the avoidable deaths that would be expected from a no-deal end to the transition period on 31 December.
If she can't be properly authoritarian at a time when it is needed, who the hell can we trust to stamp down hard on society's dickheads and arseholes?
On deaths (cheery subject that it is), Ministers should also consider the unpleasant nature and frequent after-effects of the illness. I'm mildly higher risk as I'm 70. If there was merely a 5% risk of dying as I went about my business, i'd probably accept it. But a high probability of catching it and having a horrible illness, plus a 5% chance of dying, no thanks.
An interesting phenomenon that we're discussing in my job is that a significant proportion of the staff positively prefer working from home (no commuting, pleasant environment) and seem to be almost as effective in our (office) jobs. Most would like to be able to get out more in their free time, but we're drawing the conclusion that if and when things return to quasi-normality, we may switch from "you can work at home 1 day a week if you want to" (the current policy for most) to "we encourage you to work 1-2 days a week at home"). That facilitates hot-desking so there are savings to be had in office space as well as satisfaction for individuals.
This occurs because if you look around a standard open plan office, it is rare to see more than 70% of the desks occupied.
Most people hate it - if you don't like WFH or don't have the space at home it is unpleasant.
The next stage in the evolution of this is companies paying their employees for home working facilities - some places are already giving them office chairs. This will be followed by statutory rights in due course, I expect.
Completely ignores the counterfactual: the huge number of deaths that lockdown is avoiding; that the tsunami of disease would overwhelm the health service to the extent that it wouldn't be able to treat anything like the number of conventional diseases; that an out of control epidemic has its own economic implications, as we are seeing in the relative better economic performance in Asia
1. Well, it's appropriate
2. Helen Mirren
3. That theme music.....
If you've not got time to add fuel tanks then yes, a big diesel is probably a good idea in the UK. An A6 or XF diesel might well do it with just the one stop.
Stupid ****ers.
Lots do but lots don't.
If it was to save his starving grandparents I am sure it is perfectly acceptable, not so sure if it had been to just take over a box of chocolates.
Even given your total quantum level state at the moment of birth, your detail actions 1 day later would not be predictable.
Maybe I should change my lockdown PMP course for a COBOL course instead?
The molecular biology of these inflammatory cascades is quite complex, and many things influence them from underlying conditions to pharmaceuticals to gender. Women tend to have more reactive immune systems that nip it in the bud sooner is the theory.
A comptent programmer can learn COBOL too hack around in within hours. A week to be quite proficient.
The issue is really the elaborate interactions between complexes of programs and the databases. You usually find that the limitations of the COBOL system have been engineered round - by 100s of thousands of lines of stored procedures in the database - undocumented and un tested. Arrrrrrrrrrrgh...
A matter of when not if.