If it hasn't already happened, the Next PM and Exit Date markets should be voided. Now.
People on here have within the last weeks repeatedly and calmly discussed the probability of various candidates dying in the presidential election when arguing over best betting poistion. People sagely advised about checking the rules on assassination when Obama was running.
Chance of death has been factored in by the bettors on these markets. To void them because one of the possible events that people have been betting on is possibly going to happen is a bit rum.
They weren't debating Obama's chances at election AFTER he'd been shot. That's where we are now.
Actually they were.
Paddy Power put up a market on Obama's exit date as POTUS, and confirmed they'd pay out if Obama was assassinated.
He was thinking...1 Someone with solid Leaver credentials who could be trusted to be sound on Brexit. So not Hunt, Javid or Hancock. 2 Someone without the support or charisma to overshadow him or become a threat.. So not Gove or Patel. Calculations which are pointless now.
Fat head banging on "political drama" of cabinet infighting. He is acting like this really is normal times, where some politician has briefed they think one of their colleagues is a dickhead, and then another has said, well I think he is a moron.
I can't believe this coverage...Sky banging on about when will the lockdown end, as if this is like a decision over introducing some sort of change to tax policy.
I think this crisis has taught me that sadly we no longer have a sane news media in this country.
At times of crisis you used to be able to turn to Auntie if all else failed. But sadly they’ve gone off the deep end now as well.
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
If it hasn't already happened, the Next PM and Exit Date markets should be voided. Now.
People on here have within the last weeks repeatedly and calmly discussed the probability of various candidates dying in the presidential election when arguing over best betting poistion. People sagely advised about checking the rules on assassination when Obama was running.
Chance of death has been factored in by the bettors on these markets. To void them because one of the possible events that people have been betting on is possibly going to happen is a bit rum.
Exactly. It's an unpopular view, and looks remarkably callous, but I agree with you.
A market is a market. If you think it's unethical to have one up in the first place on a certain event then don't put it up.
Be kind to each other. What people may or may not have said earlier has no bearing on the current situation. A man is critically ill. We must hope for the best.
In the meantime, there are legitimate questions around
1. the Number 10 press handling of this. Did they lie to us all day? 2. the constitutional position occupied by Raab. He can chair a meeting, but can he command the armed forces, for example?
Care to take the opportunity to apologise for calling him ‘Bozo’ all day today?
I think you are being unfair. With the benefit of what we now know (which isn't very much) curbing the cut and thrust of partisanship is appropriate. No one really expected or wanted the current situation to prevail.
Boris was taken to hospital last night after having the virus for 10 days. It was way past the time to stop trying to mock him, ridiculous as that attempt was. Tonight, on this thread, he posted comments that have provoked angry replies, not from me. I think it is the right thing to say ‘I overstepped the mark’ when you’ve done so, and it would calm feelings.
Perhaps dialling back on the sanctimony might also help in the calming feelings stakes, enjoyable as it is for you.
Bore yourself.
I don’t really care if you think I am being sanctimonious. Grown men should know where the line is drawn and be big enough to realise when they’ve overstepped it.
Sermons on a Monday, a tedious new development. Let's hope Tues-Sat aren't encroached upon.
If I want to do them , they’ll be done when I like
A factual, informative report from BBC News - the journalist in question didn't try and ask people in ICU how they feel.... I presume she will be fired by lunch.
Alternatively, since it involved actual danger - going into the red zone, she isn't important enough to be stupid and ignorant. Just has to make do with being observant and intelligent.
Hmm not sure now is the time to focus on the PMs working practices.
We should just be hoping he gets better.
Serious point. We've heard so much about prevention - rightly so - social distancing, self-isolating, flattening the curve.
What are people supposed to do when they actually get it. Drinks loads of fluids? Stay in bed?
The advice I have seen is: rest, good diet, hydration, lie/sleep on your front, and there’s a doctor advised breathing technique (five deep breaths, held each time for five seconds, then a sixth breath ending with a cough, repeated twice) to help the lungs. There’s a video of it somewhere on YouTube. Plus Foxy’s zinc tablets.
I can't believe this coverage...Sky banging on about when will the lockdown end, as if this is like a decision over introducing some sort of change to tax policy.
End ? We're barely under lockdown. It's probably got to tighten up further.
Why? Would caging more people more tightly (or trying to do so, and hoping they don't rebel against it) produce any further significant improvement in hospital admission rates? Or would it just be done for the sake of appearing to do something?
Some tasteless comments on social media really undermine one's faith in humanity. On Facebook, on a Red Dwarf meme group of all places, I'm arguing with people who 'can't wait to see what memes come up when the pr*** finally dies'. How can people be this hateful?
I can't believe this coverage...Sky banging on about when will the lockdown end, as if this is like a decision over introducing some sort of change to tax policy.
I think this crisis has taught me that sadly we no longer have a sane news media in this country.
At times of crisis you used to be able to turn to Auntie if all else failed. But sadly they’ve gone off the deep end now as well.
I've said many times on here that a lot of what's gone wrong with this country over the past 25 years is down to 24hr news
If it hasn't already happened, the Next PM and Exit Date markets should be voided. Now.
People on here have within the last weeks repeatedly and calmly discussed the probability of various candidates dying in the presidential election when arguing over best betting poistion. People sagely advised about checking the rules on assassination when Obama was running.
Chance of death has been factored in by the bettors on these markets. To void them because one of the possible events that people have been betting on is possibly going to happen is a bit rum.
Exactly. It's an unpopular view, and looks remarkably callous, but I agree with you.
A market is a market. If you think it's unethical to have one up in the first place on a certain event then don't put it up.
Betfair need to decide what they're going to do before any more events. Suspending right now is probably OK, but decide for the future they must. The US market in particular is massively affected by all this.
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
Day 20 from contracting it is the average, I believe.
Re: various discussions about both the state of media reporting of scientific issues, and of evidence-based decision making and the use and abuse of the models used to make those decisions.
I think well worth reading. And some of the core principles outlined are, I believe, well worth bearing in mind in general, even for those of us who are aware we are not experts, and even when anonymously posting on niche websites with limited reach:
1. Scientists and journalists should express the level of uncertainty associated with a forecast 2. Journalists must get quotes from other experts before publishing 3. Scientists should clearly describe the critical inputs and assumptions of their models 4. Be as transparent as possible 5. Policy-makers should use multiple models to inform policy 6. Indicate when a model was produced by somebody without a background in infectious diseases
I presume Putin is buggering about in the North Sea and Channel areas as we write.
With Moscow under lockdown he may have other things on his mind. He shook hands with a COVID19 positive doctor himself a few weeks back.
No, the navy has had a fair few ships on patrol in recent weeks - I have seen them sailing up and down - and my navy contact tells me the russian subs have been particularly active.
At present (22:19) according to Flightradar24 there's an RAF airbus from Brize Norton flying around in circles just off Peterhead. Does anyone know if this would be a standard deployment?
Just for reference, a statistician who has been producing and graphing numbers across the larger European countries put an estimate that the UK is 15 days behind Italy in its cycle.
The next two weeks therefore are either a) going to be rough or b) if somehow the UK peaks sooner and falls sooner it is, in relative terms not bad going.
If it hasn't already happened, the Next PM and Exit Date markets should be voided. Now.
People on here have within the last weeks repeatedly and calmly discussed the probability of various candidates dying in the presidential election when arguing over best betting poistion. People sagely advised about checking the rules on assassination when Obama was running.
Chance of death has been factored in by the bettors on these markets. To void them because one of the possible events that people have been betting on is possibly going to happen is a bit rum.
They weren't debating Obama's chances at election AFTER he'd been shot. That's where we are now.
Actually they were.
Paddy Power put up a market on Obama's exit date as POTUS, and confirmed they'd pay out if Obama was assassinated.
That's not the point I was making. Imagine if Obama had been shot and THEN people started placing bets. I'm not saying it should be illegal but it's certainly callous and ought to be socially rebuked.
Hmm not sure now is the time to focus on the PMs working practices.
We should just be hoping he gets better.
Serious point. We've heard so much about prevention - rightly so - social distancing, self-isolating, flattening the curve.
What are people supposed to do when they actually get it. Drinks loads of fluids? Stay in bed?
The advice I have seen is: rest, good diet, hydration, lie/sleep on your front, and there’s a doctor advised breathing technique (five deep breaths, held each time for five seconds, then a sixth breath ending with a cough, repeated twice) to help the lungs. There’s a video of it somewhere on YouTube. Plus Foxy’s zinc tablets.
Nice list. I actually think it might help if even this were delivered to the sufferers once remotely diagnosed. Perhaps it is.
I can't believe this coverage...Sky banging on about when will the lockdown end, as if this is like a decision over introducing some sort of change to tax policy.
I think this crisis has taught me that sadly we no longer have a sane news media in this country.
At times of crisis you used to be able to turn to Auntie if all else failed. But sadly they’ve gone off the deep end now as well.
I've said many times on here that a lot of what's gone wrong with this country over the past 25 years is down to 24hr news
24 hour news has had a huge detrimental effect on the whole world with the constant need for stories
I can't believe this coverage...Sky banging on about when will the lockdown end, as if this is like a decision over introducing some sort of change to tax policy.
I think this crisis has taught me that sadly we no longer have a sane news media in this country.
At times of crisis you used to be able to turn to Auntie if all else failed. But sadly they’ve gone off the deep end now as well.
I've said many times on here that a lot of what's gone wrong with this country over the past 25 years is down to 24hr news
What the hell was Laura Kuennsberg doing asking effectively if the Govt was in chaos?. WTF did she expect Raab to say?
Suspect those London parks will be very empty tomorrow.
Raab was certainly suggesting the current restrictions are going to stay in place after the original April 15th deadline but gave little clue as to when and how they might be eased.
Is the Austrian "route map to normality" the way for the UK? I find it hard to see social distancing surviving when more shops are open and it's interesting to see barbershops mentioned specifically for re-opening on May 1st.
This is perhaps the most difficult public policy decision the Government will have to face - the line between the economic imperative of trying to get things moving again has to be set against the public health imperative of risking a new wave of cases triggering a renewed lock down which could prolong and exacerbate the economic damage.
Actually barber shops sound logical to me
Timed slots - maybe 2 barbers and 2 customers at once, socially distanced. Barbers in masks (and possibly customers as well).
Haircuts providing illusion of normality vs hair growing long and unkempt
Depends if they can be run economically like that otherwise they won’t open at all
With lots of people working at home, that shouldn't be too much of a problem - very rare my barbers appears to have anyone in at all during the normal working day. I can't imagine how any barbers operates economically ever.
I got a week into lockdown before electing to just shave the hair right off. It worked ok. Can't imagine why I've never done it before - could have saved myself thousands.
The advice I have seen is: rest, good diet, hydration, lie/sleep on your front, and there’s a doctor advised breathing technique (five deep breaths, held each time for five seconds, then a sixth breath ending with a cough, repeated twice) to help the lungs. There’s a video of it somewhere on YouTube. Plus Foxy’s zinc tablets.
At least Boris is in better shape than he was a few years back.
What does that mean?
Wasn't it reported a few months back that Carrie had put him on a health kick?
People who over do fitness training actually weaken immune systems?
Fitness training strengthens your immune system over time, after a particularly challenging event like a marathon it's probably a bit weaker for a while. Most training should be actually be "easy" though, that won't weaken it.
If it hasn't already happened, the Next PM and Exit Date markets should be voided. Now.
People on here have within the last weeks repeatedly and calmly discussed the probability of various candidates dying in the presidential election when arguing over best betting poistion. People sagely advised about checking the rules on assassination when Obama was running.
Chance of death has been factored in by the bettors on these markets. To void them because one of the possible events that people have been betting on is possibly going to happen is a bit rum.
Exactly. It's an unpopular view, and looks remarkably callous, but I agree with you.
A market is a market. If you think it's unethical to have one up in the first place on a certain event then don't put it up.
Betfair need to decide what they're going to do before any more events. Suspending right now is probably OK, but decide for the future they must. The US market in particular is massively affected by all this.
I know. If the Democratic nominee market is going to be suspended or even voided if the unthinkable happens to Biden then I want to know now.
Some tasteless comments on social media really undermine one's faith in humanity. On Facebook, on a Red Dwarf meme group of all places, I'm arguing with people who 'can't wait to see what memes come up when the pr*** finally dies'. How can people be this hateful?
Wasn't there a campaign when Thatcher died to try to get the song "ding dong the witch is dead" back in the charts? That's even more hateful.
Some tasteless comments on social media really undermine one's faith in humanity. On Facebook, on a Red Dwarf meme group of all places, I'm arguing with people who 'can't wait to see what memes come up when the pr*** finally dies'. How can people be this hateful?
There is a significant minority on both left and right who are both damaged and misanthropic ; they simply don't feel much in this situation, or much empathy.
Away from Boris for a minute: I don't know if other countries' equivalent data is available, but this data: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections shows that the USA expects the whole shebang to be almost done and dusted by June, and down to zero deaths a day by July. Total predicted deaths for the USA about 90,000.
If you go for supression, as the US belatedly is, you likely have to deal with a second wave. A chart that stops at August is quite possibly hiding a tsunami of cases later in the year.
*edit*
From the FAQ:
By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some of the social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.
There was a good opinion piece on how to move out of a lockdown on CNN at the weekend
I can't believe this coverage...Sky banging on about when will the lockdown end, as if this is like a decision over introducing some sort of change to tax policy.
I think this crisis has taught me that sadly we no longer have a sane news media in this country.
At times of crisis you used to be able to turn to Auntie if all else failed. But sadly they’ve gone off the deep end now as well.
Indeed - the mainstream media are now way nuttier than the average social media poster. Facebook now seems like a sea of calm in comparison (well, calm and narcissism).
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
Day 20 from contracting it is the average, I believe.
On both those stats then, and given the lag between infection and testing could be a few days, Johnson is in diffs..
The advice I have seen is: rest, good diet, hydration, lie/sleep on your front, and there’s a doctor advised breathing technique (five deep breaths, held each time for five seconds, then a sixth breath ending with a cough, repeated twice) to help the lungs. There’s a video of it somewhere on YouTube. Plus Foxy’s zinc tablets.
If it hasn't already happened, the Next PM and Exit Date markets should be voided. Now.
People on here have within the last weeks repeatedly and calmly discussed the probability of various candidates dying in the presidential election when arguing over best betting poistion. People sagely advised about checking the rules on assassination when Obama was running.
Chance of death has been factored in by the bettors on these markets. To void them because one of the possible events that people have been betting on is possibly going to happen is a bit rum.
Exactly. It's an unpopular view, and looks remarkably callous, but I agree with you.
A market is a market. If you think it's unethical to have one up in the first place on a certain event then don't put it up.
The problem is not ethics (in gambling which like it or not profits on addiction) - but the law. Alastair Meeks has noted the legal problems on purchasing policies on another person's survival or otherwise. A bet on the UK PM's duration in office, at the moment, would be very hard to defend as not being covered in that category.
I can't believe this coverage...Sky banging on about when will the lockdown end, as if this is like a decision over introducing some sort of change to tax policy.
I think this crisis has taught me that sadly we no longer have a sane news media in this country.
At times of crisis you used to be able to turn to Auntie if all else failed. But sadly they’ve gone off the deep end now as well.
I've said many times on here that a lot of what's gone wrong with this country over the past 25 years is down to 24hr news
What the hell was Laura kuennsberg doing asking effectively if tge Govt was in chaos. WTF did she expect Raab to say?
FWIW i thought Raab did well.
The media have been a combination of shit and disgraceful so far during this crisis, but this news, they really are outdoing themselves with the getting the tone and priorities utterly utterly wrong.
F##king hell....BBC still saying well the rules aren't clear enough and did Boris work too hard.
We have the PM at death's door and they are still acting like cretins.
Another excuse for the media to whinge. The older I get, the more I think its not the politicians but the journos who are out of touch...
Adam Boulton was complaining that we were told the PM was "fine" at the press conference... Some insider journalists seem to think they ought to be inside the ward with him.
It really just shows how pointless their questions were at the press conference. It's an evolving medical situation, and they were told as it evolved.
Hoping Boris improves, must be awful for his family at this time.
I know Stanley a little. Sent him a quick message, saying everybody is wishing Boris all the best.
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
Day 20 from contracting it is the average, I believe.
Sounds correct to me. The first phase is the active viral phase, then comes the inflammatory phase.
I see that Tommy's is one of 5 ECMO units in the country. Let's hope it doesn't get that desperate, though in China they did some urgent lung transplants for VIPs. Now that really is hardcore.
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
Day 20 from contracting it is the average, I believe.
Sounds correct to me. The first phase is the active viral phase, then comes the inflammatory phase.
I see that Tommy's is one of 5 ECMO units in the country. Let's hope it doesn't get that desperate, though in China they did some urgent lung transplants for VIPs. Now that really is hardcore.
Did the donors have any choice in supplying their lungs?
I presume Putin is buggering about in the North Sea and Channel areas as we write.
With Moscow under lockdown he may have other things on his mind. He shook hands with a COVID19 positive doctor himself a few weeks back.
No, the navy has had a fair few ships on patrol in recent weeks - I have seen them sailing up and down - and my navy contact tells me the russian subs have been particularly active.
At present (22:19) according to Flightradar24 there's an RAF airbus from Brize Norton flying around in circles just off Peterhead. Does anyone know if this would be a standard deployment?
Depends if its in transport or tanker mode. Tanker probably working with resources, transport no unless its in flight testing or having a problem.
I presume Putin is buggering about in the North Sea and Channel areas as we write.
With Moscow under lockdown he may have other things on his mind. He shook hands with a COVID19 positive doctor himself a few weeks back.
No, the navy has had a fair few ships on patrol in recent weeks - I have seen them sailing up and down - and my navy contact tells me the russian subs have been particularly active.
At present (22:19) according to Flightradar24 there's an RAF airbus from Brize Norton flying around in circles just off Peterhead. Does anyone know if this would be a standard deployment?
No idea, but the navy patrol vessels rarely appear on the equivalent marine tracker, presumably they are invisible for good reasons.
Hmm not sure now is the time to focus on the PMs working practices.
The PM (for some) is a "role model" - if others learn from his possible mistakes, so much the better.
If this persuades some of the public to take precautions more seriously, some good will come of this dreadful news.
Not that, yet, people were clamouring for an early end to the lockdown, but I expect the inevitable drift to wanting that sooner rather than later will now be delayed somewhat.
Channel 4 have adopted a nursing home in Scotland, and the mood has changed since last weeks visit. Due to suspect cases everyone now in rooms no longer playing with Pom poms. Issues seem to be testing and PPE and staff absence.
They asked Nicola Sturgeon a question about testing she couldn’t answer.
I can't believe this coverage...Sky banging on about when will the lockdown end, as if this is like a decision over introducing some sort of change to tax policy.
End ? We're barely under lockdown. It's probably got to tighten up further.
Why? Would caging more people more tightly (or trying to do so, and hoping they don't rebel against it) produce any further significant improvement in hospital admission rates? Or would it just be done for the sake of appearing to do something?
Agree - the desire to tighten up further falls into the category of 'people aren't following the existing rules, let's make some new rules', rather than taking the approach of 'people aren't following the existing rules, let's find ways better ways of getting them to do so'.
Quite off topic, the social media post of the day that most irritated me was a man lamenting the number of deaths so far, commenting that 'if this carried on we'll be at 10,000 dead by June - hope not'. People just don't understand exponential growth.
However some of the pond life have added their posts to his tweet.
There will be many, many people echoing those negative sentiments, far more than will admit it. Such is life, unfortunately. Fortunately, simple human empathy would mean most MPs, who have to interract with one another, would not feel so callous. Very few are actually bad people.
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
Day 20 from contracting it is the average, I believe.
On both those stats then, and given the lag between infection and testing could be a few days, Johnson is in diffs..
R4 did a more or less on it, and AIR the broad stats were 6-7 days before showing any symptoms (for some people it stays that way), 6-7 days of mild symptoms, then either recovery or 6-7 days of pneumonia, then recovery in about half of those serious cases.
I can't believe this coverage...Sky banging on about when will the lockdown end, as if this is like a decision over introducing some sort of change to tax policy.
End ? We're barely under lockdown. It's probably got to tighten up further.
Why? Would caging more people more tightly (or trying to do so, and hoping they don't rebel against it) produce any further significant improvement in hospital admission rates? Or would it just be done for the sake of appearing to do something?
Agree - the desire to tighten up further falls into the category of 'people aren't following the existing rules, let's make some new rules', rather than taking the approach of 'people aren't following the existing rules, let's find ways better ways of getting them to do so'.
A question - is being put on a ventilator always a last resort, or is it something that can potentially help somebody who doesn't technically require one?
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
Day 20 from contracting it is the average, I believe.
On both those stats then, and given the lag between infection and testing could be a few days, Johnson is in diffs..
R4 did a more or less on it, and AIR the broad stats were 6-7 days before showing any symptoms (for some people it stays that way), 6-7 days of mild symptoms, then either recovery or 6-7 days of pneumonia, then recovery in about half of those serious cases.
I thought the mean time between infection and symptoms was less than 7 days, more like 3 days. Hence, why they talk about self-isolating for 7 days.
Quite off topic, the social media post of the day that most irritated me was a man lamenting the number of deaths so far, commenting that 'if this carried on we'll be at 10,000 dead by June - hope not'. People just don't understand exponential growth.
I think their system has just gone kaput. My Mum, who would qualify as one half of a vulnerable household under any reasonable definition (just shy of 70 but with early stage COPD; Stepdad is 75 and in remission from cancer,) has given up trying to get a delivery slot from them. Says both they and Waitrose are completely hopeless; Tesco and Asda obviously also struggling with demand but much better.
Says Sainsbury and Waitrose will not be in receipt of her custom anymore when this is all over.
I can't believe this coverage...Sky banging on about when will the lockdown end, as if this is like a decision over introducing some sort of change to tax policy.
I think this crisis has taught me that sadly we no longer have a sane news media in this country.
At times of crisis you used to be able to turn to Auntie if all else failed. But sadly they’ve gone off the deep end now as well.
I've said many times on here that a lot of what's gone wrong with this country over the past 25 years is down to 24hr news
24 hour news has had a huge detrimental effect on the whole world with the constant need for stories
Agree. They can't just repeat the same three of four stories for the whole of the 24 hours so they embellish with vast quantities of ill-informed speculation and opinionation, tarted up as analysis.
If we went back to three bulletins a day then nobody (save for the people paid to provide all the additional content) would miss it at all.
A question - is being put on a ventilator always a last resort, or is it something that can potentially help somebody who doesn't technically require one?
CPAP machine is the step between oxygen mask and ventilator, that seems to be what they use before going the full hog...as putting somebody on a ventilator is a big step, very traumatic for the body.
When Boris has recovered, and when the country has got through Corona, not the neatest and highest survival rate, but ok, relatively sensibly, far from the worst, it is going to be Boris on the balcony at Buck House times. The man is going to be a legend, love him or loathe him.
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
Day 20 from contracting it is the average, I believe.
Sounds correct to me. The first phase is the active viral phase, then comes the inflammatory phase.
I see that Tommy's is one of 5 ECMO units in the country. Let's hope it doesn't get that desperate, though in China they did some urgent lung transplants for VIPs. Now that really is hardcore.
Did the donors have any choice in supplying their lungs?
Probably not. The Chinese have a reputation for executing criminals to order for transplant purposes.
Suspect those London parks will be very empty tomorrow.
Raab was certainly suggesting the current restrictions are going to stay in place after the original April 15th deadline but gave little clue as to when and how they might be eased.
Is the Austrian "route map to normality" the way for the UK? I find it hard to see social distancing surviving when more shops are open and it's interesting to see barbershops mentioned specifically for re-opening on May 1st.
This is perhaps the most difficult public policy decision the Government will have to face - the line between the economic imperative of trying to get things moving again has to be set against the public health imperative of risking a new wave of cases triggering a renewed lock down which could prolong and exacerbate the economic damage.
Actually barber shops sound logical to me
Timed slots - maybe 2 barbers and 2 customers at once, socially distanced. Barbers in masks (and possibly customers as well).
Haircuts providing illusion of normality vs hair growing long and unkempt
Depends if they can be run economically like that otherwise they won’t open at all
Skinheads/Suedeheads, that don’t require a trip to the barbers, will be the look in my opinion
Leaving aside the timing, the sheer fantasy of it is breathtaking: he's immensely proud of having helped write down an unachievable wish-list, which no-one ever got near even trying to achieve?
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
Day 20 from contracting it is the average, I believe.
Sounds correct to me. The first phase is the active viral phase, then comes the inflammatory phase.
I see that Tommy's is one of 5 ECMO units in the country. Let's hope it doesn't get that desperate, though in China they did some urgent lung transplants for VIPs. Now that really is hardcore.
Did the donors have any choice in supplying their lungs?
Probably not. The Chinese have a reputation for executing criminals to order for transplant purposes.
So 50 B&H a day really can improve your chances of survival.
BBC news correspondent Hugh Pym diplomatically only mentioning one of Johnson's health factors - his age, not mentioning any other potential impediments...
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
Day 20 from contracting it is the average, I believe.
Sounds correct to me. The first phase is the active viral phase, then comes the inflammatory phase.
I see that Tommy's is one of 5 ECMO units in the country. Let's hope it doesn't get that desperate, though in China they did some urgent lung transplants for VIPs. Now that really is hardcore.
Did the donors have any choice in supplying their lungs?
Probably not. The Chinese have a reputation for executing criminals to order for transplant purposes.
That is what I was thinking. Also, in China I believe you can also "buy" organs, so there is a market, which leads to some "interesting" situations.
Be kind to each other. What people may or may not have said earlier has no bearing on the current situation. A man is critically ill. We must hope for the best.
In the meantime, there are legitimate questions around
1. the Number 10 press handling of this. Did they lie to us all day? 2. the constitutional position occupied by Raab. He can chair a meeting, but can he command the armed forces, for example?
Care to take the opportunity to apologise for calling him ‘Bozo’ all day today?
I think you are being unfair. With the benefit of what we now know (which isn't very much) curbing the cut and thrust of partisanship is appropriate. No one really expected or wanted the current situation to prevail.
Boris was taken to hospital last night after having the virus for 10 days. It was way past the time to stop trying to mock him, ridiculous as that attempt was. Tonight, on this thread, he posted comments that have provoked angry replies, not from me. I think it is the right thing to say ‘I overstepped the mark’ when you’ve done so, and it would calm feelings.
Perhaps dialling back on the sanctimony might also help in the calming feelings stakes, enjoyable as it is for you.
Bore yourself.
I don’t really care if you think I am being sanctimonious. Grown men should know where the line is drawn and be big enough to realise when they’ve overstepped it.
Sermons on a Monday, a tedious new development. Let's hope Tues-Sat aren't encroached upon.
If I want to do them , they’ll be done when I like
When Boris has recovered, and when the country has got through Corona, not the neatest and highest survival rate, but ok, relatively sensibly, far from the worst, it is going to be Boris on the balcony at Buck House times. The man is going to be a legend, love him or loathe him.
This is what I was wondering earlier - how much genuine medical advice has he actually been receiving in the last week? Maybe it wouldn't have made much difference, as somebody said, but surely he should have had the doctors checking up on a precautionary basis every day? How much monitoring of lung capacity etc was being done? I would hope loads, but one doesn't get the impression...
A question - is being put on a ventilator always a last resort, or is it something that can potentially help somebody who doesn't technically require one?
CPAP machine is the step between oxygen mask and ventilator, that seems to be what they use before going the full hog...as putting somebody on a ventilator is a big step, very traumatic for the body.
Indeed. I seem to recall data being released from Italy to the effect that use of CPAP machines reduced demand for ventilation by half. They are much simpler and faster to manufacture, non-invasive, and (unless PBers of a medical bent would wish to contradict) presumably much easier for very hard pressed hospital staff to set up.
Just going to re-post my post from last night. In short this is not an unexpected development and the risk for this guy is high.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
Day 20 from contracting it is the average, I believe.
On both those stats then, and given the lag between infection and testing could be a few days, Johnson is in diffs..
R4 did a more or less on it, and AIR the broad stats were 6-7 days before showing any symptoms (for some people it stays that way), 6-7 days of mild symptoms, then either recovery or 6-7 days of pneumonia, then recovery in about half of those serious cases.
I thought the mean time between infection and symptoms was less than 7 days, more like 3 days. Hence, why they talk about self-isolating for 7 days.
So you can gauge what you got. If its a cold or something liable to be done in that time or as good as. This thing on the other hand can drag out
I presume Putin is buggering about in the North Sea and Channel areas as we write.
With Moscow under lockdown he may have other things on his mind. He shook hands with a COVID19 positive doctor himself a few weeks back.
No, the navy has had a fair few ships on patrol in recent weeks - I have seen them sailing up and down - and my navy contact tells me the russian subs have been particularly active.
At present (22:19) according to Flightradar24 there's an RAF airbus from Brize Norton flying around in circles just off Peterhead. Does anyone know if this would be a standard deployment?
No idea, but the navy patrol vessels rarely appear on the equivalent marine tracker, presumably they are invisible for good reasons.
Its doing race tracks so that suggests tanker based work. If it lands anywhere near Prince Charles retreat, worry.
I think their system has just gone kaput. My Mum, who would qualify as one half of a vulnerable household under any reasonable definition (just shy of 70 but with early stage COPD; Stepdad is 75 and in remission from cancer,) has given up trying to get a delivery slot from them. Says both they and Waitrose are completely hopeless; Tesco and Asda obviously also struggling with demand but much better.
Says Sainsbury and Waitrose will not be in receipt of her custom anymore when this is all over
I understand the feelings, but sometimes you've just got to cut some slack. In many ways the supermarkets are working miracles keeping the food supply going. They've had to ramp up their online operation on a massive scale, with little warning, in a matter of weeks. Often with systems not designed for this level of demand. And with workers who are no doubt regularly exposed to CV-19 and going sick themselves.
Comments
Paddy Power put up a market on Obama's exit date as POTUS, and confirmed they'd pay out if Obama was assassinated.
2 Someone without the support or charisma to overshadow him or become a threat.. So not Gove or Patel.
Calculations which are pointless now.
At times of crisis you used to be able to turn to Auntie if all else failed. But sadly they’ve gone off the deep end now as well.
The situation for the PM is straightforward. He is likely to be 2 weeks in if he was confirmed 10 days ago. There is precisely no sign of recovery with issues in his breathing still prevalent.
If i read the medical thing right days 10 to 15 or so are where the greatest numbers of fatalities occur if there has been no recovery signs.
A market is a market. If you think it's unethical to have one up in the first place on a certain event then don't put it up.
Alternatively, since it involved actual danger - going into the red zone, she isn't important enough to be stupid and ignorant. Just has to make do with being observant and intelligent.
This has to be one of the most iconic opening scenes of all time:
https://youtu.be/f4yXBIigZbg
I just came across the following article published by the Royal Statistical Society, in response to the above issues:
https://rssdss.design.blog/2020/03/31/all-models-are-wrong-but-some-are-completely-wrong/
I think well worth reading. And some of the core principles outlined are, I believe, well worth bearing in mind in general, even for those of us who are aware we are not experts, and even when anonymously posting on niche websites with limited reach:
1. Scientists and journalists should express the level of uncertainty associated with a forecast
2. Journalists must get quotes from other experts before publishing
3. Scientists should clearly describe the critical inputs and assumptions of their models
4. Be as transparent as possible
5. Policy-makers should use multiple models to inform policy
6. Indicate when a model was produced by somebody without a background in infectious diseases
https://www.nhs.uk/news/mental-health/loneliness-may-affect-the-immune-system/
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/apr/06/sainsburys-wont-deliver-shopping-if-youre-not-considered-vulnerable-coronavirus 😡
https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1247248198932062208?s=19
The next two weeks therefore are either a) going to be rough or b) if somehow the UK peaks sooner and falls sooner it is, in relative terms not bad going.
I don't remember much of Twister, but from what I do remember, super unclear how you made that connection.
Edit: never mind, I've just realised what you meant! Oh dear.
FWIW I thought Raab did well.
I got a week into lockdown before electing to just shave the hair right off. It worked ok. Can't imagine why I've never done it before - could have saved myself thousands.
but the law. Alastair Meeks has noted the legal problems on purchasing policies on another person's survival or otherwise. A bet on the UK PM's duration in office, at the moment, would be very hard to defend as not being covered in that category.
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1247266635569823746?s=20
Fuck Dura Ace.
I see that Tommy's is one of 5 ECMO units in the country. Let's hope it doesn't get that desperate, though in China they did some urgent lung transplants for VIPs. Now that really is hardcore.
Boris has too much of a zest for life for this to take him out....
And he is in probably the best unit in the UK.....
Channel 4 have adopted a nursing home in Scotland, and the mood has changed since last weeks visit. Due to suspect cases everyone now in rooms no longer playing with Pom poms. Issues seem to be testing and PPE and staff absence.
They asked Nicola Sturgeon a question about testing she couldn’t answer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb-QwiruLqY
https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1247260654240706560
However some of the pond life have added their posts to his tweet.
Oh Boris....
Says Sainsbury and Waitrose will not be in receipt of her custom anymore when this is all over. Agree. They can't just repeat the same three of four stories for the whole of the 24 hours so they embellish with vast quantities of ill-informed speculation and opinionation, tarted up as analysis.
If we went back to three bulletins a day then nobody (save for the people paid to provide all the additional content) would miss it at all. Bad mental health is a terrible scourge. It costs some lives and ruins a whole lot more.
It shouldn't be dismissed as trivial just because everyone's so worried at the moment (rightly and understandably) about coronavirus.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tate-reeves-confederate-mississippi_n_5e8b3d5cc5b6cbaf282cf2e3?ri18n=true&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9jb25zZW50LnlhaG9vLmNvbS9jb2xsZWN0Q29uc2VudD9zZXNzaW9uSWQ9M19jYy1zZXNzaW9uXzM3OGI3YTE2LWYwZjUtNDZkZC04NTVlLTRiMmIwYjhhZmUxMCZsYW5nPWVuLXVzJmlubGluZT1mYWxzZQ&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANx-9-1XubkTMx6X55MQhcOONYLdkRiZ_2AR-jDbsHAnm4p_JvM2tHGfyrQQ-bfMhVaXjY15GTZ5KsSoQ0QAvxKW3EmIAwnVpr7S0uQlrfUm2XDH4CUVWUPvVEkuvyfJbw1MiLgvvZgaQP22j_fujd2Rh4WkPhgVC62OOUepdsoH
https://twitter.com/BethSF/status/1247186322068037638
A reminder that Boris Johnson isn't the only MP in an ICU tonight, though Mark Tami MP had sent his best wishes to the PM earlier.
Tony Lloyd is 70 - so best of luck!