I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
That's very wise, because the way US GDP numbers are worked out, and a recession is defined, you could get stuffed.
So GDP that went:
100 85 88 92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
A v-shaped recovery would be nice, it’s not going to happen. This plague is going to hammer confidence for years, even if it burns out by summer. Everyone will be hamstering their cheeks, in case it returns next winter.
Only a vaccine or an effective treatment will restore business and consumer spirits. Or maybe two years and herd immunity
I think my scenario is very plausible. It's not a V. It's more like an "L". A rapid drop, followed by a slow move back upwards.
My point is that:
-15% +2% +2% +2%
is much, much worse than:
-1% -1% +1% +1%
Yet the first would not count as a recession, and the second would.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
That's very wise, because the way US GDP numbers are worked out, and a recession is defined, you could get stuffed.
So GDP that went:
100 85 88 92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
Why is the definition of a recession so arbitrary? Why not just set it at X% decline from peak within Y timeframe?
Because of what recession means. It is a prolonged (two quarters) period of decline. A crash followed by a recovery immediately starting is a crash not a recession.
Why does anyone think we might reach a peak in mid-April?
This seems unduly optimistic to me. Italy's experience should be a warning that even with the current restrictions in place the it may not be possible to slow the growth of Covid-19 cases across the UK for many weeks to come.
It is optimistic, clearly, but if one assumed a week of partial voluntary lockdown, then, say, 3 weeks of full lockdown, and a peak of mid-April is not a huge amount out whilst seeming reasonable. But I'd expect April to be a write off, frankly.
I also expect April and most of May to be a write off (i.e., we will be in the present state for 6-8 weeks). But Italy has clearly slowed the growth of Covid-19 cases from exponential to linear over the past week, so restrictions do have an effect. That has taken 2 and a half weeks since they locked down. Now, it's true they have not seen a rapid decline yet (one can speculate as to why) but one would expect that in the next week or so. Hence, I think a peak of new cases by mid-April is not optimistic but, rather, realistic, given what we can see in other countries.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
That's very wise, because the way US GDP numbers are worked out, and a recession is defined, you could get stuffed.
So GDP that went:
100 85 88 92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
A v-shaped recovery would be nice, it’s not going to happen. This plague is going to hammer confidence for years, even if it burns out by summer. Everyone will be hamstering their cheeks, in case it returns next winter.
Only a vaccine or an effective treatment will restore business and consumer spirits. Or maybe two years and herd immunity
I think my scenario is very plausible. It's not a V. It's more like an "L". A rapid drop, followed by a slow move back upwards.
My point is that:
-15% +2% +2% +2%
is much, much worse than:
-1% -1% +1% +1%
Yet the first would not count as a recession, and the second would.
Second quarter growth is a bold prediction. Most of America is likely to peak in mid May-June
Has America had first quarter decline? If there was any growth in the first quarter then a second quarter collapse followed by a third quarter recovery is quite possible.
Note both SARs and Covid 19 originated in China, the Chinese government urgently needs to improve the sanitation of its food production and lab safety
This is from February 2017:
"How China can stop the world's next pandemic ..................................................................................... But every year, so-called wet markets reopen and both new and known viruses reemerge."
You are a far more adept cyclist than I am. I did actually ask the shop a couple of weeks ago about an inner tube but, my bike being ancient and shit, and their bikes being fancy and state of the art, they didn't have the right one. They gave absolutely no hint that they were at all interested in ordering one. But that was then. This is now!
This is like reading a discussion on cycling from the 70s. Go tubeless...
For balance, I just read an account by a 40-something woman who got it (tested poz) along with most of her young family, and for them it was mostly a mild cold, or just a passing headache
And for maybe half of the infected its no symptoms at all:
In China, it is estimated that a third of all positive cases show no symptoms, according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post.
On the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, about half of the more than 600 positive cases found onboard were found to have no symptoms.
A similar proportion of asymptomatic cases has been reported in Iceland, which says it is testing a higher proportion of citizens than anywhere else in the world.
Interesting to see that the 168 new ones recorded in the 24 hours to 1700 yesterday, include some as far back as the 19th. Presumably post mortem reporting of swab results. Not quite sure what this means in terms of plotting the graph.
Also worth noting these are hospital deaths, so not including those in care homes etc.
For balance, I just read an account by a 40-something woman who got it (tested poz) along with most of her young family, and for them it was mostly a mild cold, or just a passing headache
Another who thinks the flu is nothing to worry about. Funny, 6 weeks ago and anyone who called a cold ‘the flu’ was told in no uncertain terms how dangerous flu was.
Interesting to see that the 168 new ones recorded in the 24 hours to 1700 yesterday, include some as far back as the 19th. Presumably post mortem reporting of swab results. Not quite sure what this means in terms of plotting the graph.
Also worth noting these are hospital deaths, so not including those in care homes etc.
For balance, I just read an account by a 40-something woman who got it (tested poz) along with most of her young family, and for them it was mostly a mild cold, or just a passing headache
And for maybe half of the infected its no symptoms at all:
In China, it is estimated that a third of all positive cases show no symptoms, according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post.
On the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, about half of the more than 600 positive cases found onboard were found to have no symptoms.
A similar proportion of asymptomatic cases has been reported in Iceland, which says it is testing a higher proportion of citizens than anywhere else in the world.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
That's very wise, because the way US GDP numbers are worked out, and a recession is defined, you could get stuffed.
So GDP that went:
100 85 88 92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
A v-shaped recovery would be nice, it’s not going to happen. This plague is going to hammer confidence for years, even if it burns out by summer. Everyone will be hamstering their cheeks, in case it returns next winter.
Only a vaccine or an effective treatment will restore business and consumer spirits. Or maybe two years and herd immunity
I think my scenario is very plausible. It's not a V. It's more like an "L". A rapid drop, followed by a slow move back upwards.
My point is that:
-15% +2% +2% +2%
is much, much worse than:
-1% -1% +1% +1%
Yet the first would not count as a recession, and the second would.
Second quarter growth is a bold prediction. Most of America is likely to peak in mid May-June
Has America had first quarter decline? If there was any growth in the first quarter then a second quarter collapse followed by a third quarter recovery is quite possible.
Surely the March decline must be larger than any growth in Jan/Feb?
Interesting to see that the 168 new ones recorded in the 24 hours to 1700 yesterday, include some as far back as the 19th. Presumably post mortem reporting of swab results. Not quite sure what this means in terms of plotting the graph.
Also worth noting these are hospital deaths, so not including those in care homes etc.
For balance, I just read an account by a 40-something woman who got it (tested poz) along with most of her young family, and for them it was mostly a mild cold, or just a passing headache
And for maybe half of the infected its no symptoms at all:
In China, it is estimated that a third of all positive cases show no symptoms, according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post.
On the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, about half of the more than 600 positive cases found onboard were found to have no symptoms.
A similar proportion of asymptomatic cases has been reported in Iceland, which says it is testing a higher proportion of citizens than anywhere else in the world.
Yes. It’s clear that for some this disease is nothing to worry about.
And yet for others (not all old, or morbidly obese) it’s a swift and brutal killer.
The randomness adds to the terror, I think. If you were designing a bug for a movie, you would make it do this.
Is obesity much of a factor among victims ?
Not much data to know yet, although it seemed like there was an enrichment amongst serious clinical obesity and bad prognosis (it was in the breakdown of fatalities that was provided a few days ago). Not maybe surprising as respiratory disorders are worse in those who are overweight. But @Foxy would be much better placed to comment than me!!
For balance, I just read an account by a 40-something woman who got it (tested poz) along with most of her young family, and for them it was mostly a mild cold, or just a passing headache
And for maybe half of the infected its no symptoms at all:
In China, it is estimated that a third of all positive cases show no symptoms, according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post.
On the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, about half of the more than 600 positive cases found onboard were found to have no symptoms.
A similar proportion of asymptomatic cases has been reported in Iceland, which says it is testing a higher proportion of citizens than anywhere else in the world.
For balance, I just read an account by a 40-something woman who got it (tested poz) along with most of her young family, and for them it was mostly a mild cold, or just a passing headache
And for maybe half of the infected its no symptoms at all:
In China, it is estimated that a third of all positive cases show no symptoms, according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post.
On the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, about half of the more than 600 positive cases found onboard were found to have no symptoms.
A similar proportion of asymptomatic cases has been reported in Iceland, which says it is testing a higher proportion of citizens than anywhere else in the world.
Yes. It’s clear that for some this disease is nothing to worry about.
And yet for others (not all old, or morbidly obese) it’s a swift and brutal killer.
The randomness adds to the terror, I think. If you were designing a bug for a movie, you would make it do this.
Is obesity much of a factor among victims ?
Not much data to know yet, although it seemed like there was an enrichment amongst serious clinical obesity and bad prognosis (it was in the breakdown of fatalities that was provided a few days ago). Not maybe surprising as respiratory disorders are worse in those who are overweight. But @Foxy would be much better placed to comment than me!!
I couldn't reply from direct experience, but that is what I have seen in various reports.
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Thats right Jon - keep trying to make party political points
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
We are only one decade into recovering from Gordon Brown and his 33% budget deficit. It's probably going to take at least another.
Good article, as ever. They'd toned it down when I frequented Italian buses, but they still had the 'disabili di guerra' seats in the late 1990s. I did wonder whether that was rather a disservice to other disabled people whose needs were equal. I rode the Belfast buses as well during that period, again the sheer quantity of disabled seats was a very obvious marker of where you were.
It seems to me we were a little complacent with SARS, the vaccine efforts were mothballed when there were few patients, no one thought it worthwhile to develop vaccines against the common or defeated coronas, no one kept something up their sleeve just in case. For flu, the possible variants are known, educated guesses are made, and vaccine turnarounds are much less. We need much better prior art in the bank for each of the most credible pandemic threats: I'll not prejudge which diseases best fit that description.
Even with that I reckon we'd have still been sitting at home now, but with much more confidence that solutions were around the corner and that the second wave was covered.
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Comrade...I'm worried about the meltdown and in a few months...it'll be Mad Max Fury Road...but with loads more people......and colder
For balance, I just read an account by a 40-something woman who got it (tested poz) along with most of her young family, and for them it was mostly a mild cold, or just a passing headache
And for maybe half of the infected its no symptoms at all:
In China, it is estimated that a third of all positive cases show no symptoms, according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post.
On the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, about half of the more than 600 positive cases found onboard were found to have no symptoms.
A similar proportion of asymptomatic cases has been reported in Iceland, which says it is testing a higher proportion of citizens than anywhere else in the world.
When they've done the research, it'll be interesting to know why so many people experience either no or mild symptoms with Covid-19, and whether that knowledge can be used to help people during future coronavirus outbreaks.
Very large and light weight "product", obviously. A 'normal' 747 plane carries double the cargo weight and uses half as much fuel as that monstrosity.
I was just thinking what's wrong with ordinary aircraft. It looks like some stunt, maybe Trump saw something on the Discovery Channel. "Tell Boeing to send me the big plane".
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Dude, we’re in a fucking plague. The entire world is being downrated. Humanity is BBB-. Who cares.
The ability of governments to borrow is important at the moment.
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Dude, we’re in a fucking plague. The entire world is being downrated. Humanity is BBB-. Who cares.
The ability of governments to borrow is important at the moment.
Is it? The BoE has the printing presses running at full speed.
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Comrade...I'm worried about the meltdown and in a few months...it'll be Mad Max Fury Road...but with loads more people......and colder
I really dont think so. I dont think either of us could get away with the costume of the Lord Humungous.
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Dude, we’re in a fucking plague. The entire world is being downrated. Humanity is BBB-. Who cares.
The ability of governments to borrow is important at the moment.
20 year gilts are 0.687 as I write. The square root of bugger all.
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Comrade...I'm worried about the meltdown and in a few months...it'll be Mad Max Fury Road...but with loads more people......and colder
I really dont think so. I dont think either of us could get away with the costume of the Lord Humungous.
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Dude, we’re in a fucking plague. The entire world is being downrated. Humanity is BBB-. Who cares.
The ability of governments to borrow is important at the moment.
20 year gilts are 0.687 as I write. The square root of bugger all.
Ah, so that's what bugger all is equal to... 0.471969.
The first death in Spain was on 3rd March and in the UK just two days later on 5th March. Yet Spain is now on 5,138 compared to 773 in the UK. (Spain was on 3,647 two days ago).
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Surely at the end of this the whole world will just have to agree to a great big debt write off?
Not sure how that works out but I can't see how all of this debt will actually be paid back at the end of this?
Yeah because it was H1N1 (Spanish Flu in 1918 was H1N1 and so were the subsequent versions of it in 1957 and 1968) wasn't there a theory that older people had some immunity where-as younger people tended to get it much worse (and, weirdly, pregnant women)
Remarkable the UK debt is now AA- rated. It was AAA under Labour. Despite promising to protect it, we have come a long way under this government. And not in a good way. How much further have we yet to fall?
Surely at the end of this the whole world will just have to agree to a great big debt write off?
Not sure how that works out but I can't see how all of this debt will actually be paid back at the end of this?
It is odd that a left winger where the normal response to "How is it going to be paid for" is the government can just print money is suddenly concerned about the uk credit rating
Yeah because it was H1N1 (Spanish Flu in 1918 was H1N1 and so were the subsequent versions of it in 1957 and 1968) wasn't there a theory that older people had some immunity where-as younger people tended to get it much worse (and, weirdly, pregnant women)
I think even with Spanish flu, it barely touched anyone over 70 because there was a prior immunity event in the mid C19th
"There are even records of a significant and unusual increase in people hospitalised in Lombardy for flu and pneumonia between October and December last year"
The first death in Spain was on 3rd March and in the UK just two days later on 5th March. Yet Spain is now on 5,138 compared to 773 in the UK. (Spain was on 3,647 two days ago).
On the plus side, while awfully large, the number of new cases in Spain today is similar (actually a little less) than yesterday and the hint from the evening numbers is that a similar pattern will be seen tomorrow, perhaps suggesting that the number of new cases is starting to stabilise.
Interestingly, a similar pattern was seen in Italy - 11 days after they started the lockdown, the number of new cases stopped growing and stablised. Since then, they have plateaued for a week and the hint from the ministers / authorities (plus the early figures) is that they might start to decline over the next few days.
If this is indeed a similar pattern to other countries, we would expect numbers in France to stablise early next week and in the UK a week from today. Still predictions, but we will know better in a few days and then have a better idea of what's going to happen.
"I was presiding over the most successful economy in the history of the world".....
Strangely that press conference was the most impressive I have yet heard from Trump. Random streams of thoughts, barbs and nonsense but it somehow just about worked for me this time.
I think we could tell by late Jan that it was a potential deadly pandemic, although I’m not sure what the government might have done at that point.
What *is* true is that Boris in the early weeks (ie right into early March) have the impression there was nothing to worry about, even handshaking was fine.
Anyway, can’t be arsed carping. More interested in how we beat this bitch.
I was well enough to do some light gardening today, have a drive through swab and Zoom a Church Committee meeting. Feeling so fine that I was wondering if it was my imagination.
Then suddenly a tight chest, light headed and a real effort to breath. O2 sats remaining good, but scary.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
The first death in Spain was on 3rd March and in the UK just two days later on 5th March. Yet Spain is now on 5,138 compared to 773 in the UK. (Spain was on 3,647 two days ago).
On the plus side, while awfully large, the number of new cases in Spain today is similar (actually a little less) than yesterday and the hint from the evening numbers is that a similar pattern will be seen tomorrow, perhaps suggesting that the number of new cases is starting to stabilise.
Interestingly, a similar pattern was seen in Italy - 11 days after they started the lockdown, the number of new cases stopped growing and stablised. Since then, they have plateaued for a week and the hint from the ministers / authorities (plus the early figures) is that they might start to decline over the next few days.
If this is indeed a similar pattern to other countries, we would expect numbers in France to stablise early next week and in the UK a week from today. Still predictions, but we will know better in a few days and then have a better idea of what's going to happen.
Surely these numbers arent awfully large if we are expecting of the order of 20k deaths with a shortish peak period (or even multiple short peaks). They are about whats expected to get to what people would have considered a low total a couple of weeks ago?
I was well enough to do some light gardening today, have a drive through swab and Zoom a Church Committee meeting. Feeling so fine that I was wondering if it was my imagination.
Then suddenly a tight chest, light headed and a real effort to breath. O2 sats remaining good, but scary.
Gosh. Sorry to hear that. Hope the episode passes soon and that you continue recovering.
Poor effort to just wave a picture. He should have had a nice, shiny model plane.
That plane is Boeing's "Dreamlifter", a modified 747 they use to transport parts for the 787. What's Trump saying they're going to be doing with it?
He said nothing. Just a Boeing ad.
Ah okay, so just a generic 'photo of a plane with Boeing written on the side', that happens to be a very specific plane with a very specific use.
He'd have been better off with a photo of the 747 that says USA down the side!
He said Boeing are letting them use it to move "product" around the USA.
Very large and light weight "product", obviously. A 'normal' 747 plane carries double the cargo weight and uses half as much fuel as that monstrosity.
"At 65,000 cubic feet the Dreamlifter can hold three times the volume of a 747-400F freighter."
But is only holds about 60 tonnes of cargo when full of fuel, half that of a normal 747. And the cargo bay isn't pressurised.
Call it 65 tonnes to make the maths easier, what do you know that weighs only one tonne per thousand cubic feet (c.10kg/mˆ3), that might need urgently transporting?
I was well enough to do some light gardening today, have a drive through swab and Zoom a Church Committee meeting. Feeling so fine that I was wondering if it was my imagination.
Then suddenly a tight chest, light headed and a real effort to breath. O2 sats remaining good, but scary.
I had similae issues on the worst days. Sudden shortness of breath caused by absolutely nothing. General light headedness and extreme tiredness. I would suddenly become very sleepy and not wake up for 3 or 4 hours. My body would ache when I did wake up. It was terrible.
Comments
My point is that:
-15%
+2%
+2%
+2%
is much, much worse than:
-1%
-1%
+1%
+1%
Yet the first would not count as a recession, and the second would.
I have a cool folding Huawei on its way to me...
And when I do use Google devices, it'll connect fine with to the Exchange server.
Not an entirely inexpensive option, mind.
Not nice.
DM me if you need an IT director
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1243657645333995521?s=20
In China, it is estimated that a third of all positive cases show no symptoms, according to classified Chinese government data seen by the South China Morning Post.
On the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, about half of the more than 600 positive cases found onboard were found to have no symptoms.
A similar proportion of asymptomatic cases has been reported in Iceland, which says it is testing a higher proportion of citizens than anywhere else in the world.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52015486
https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped-60-trusts-report-fatality/7027212.article
Interesting to see that the 168 new ones recorded in the 24 hours to 1700 yesterday, include some as far back as the 19th. Presumably post mortem reporting of swab results. Not quite sure what this means in terms of plotting the graph.
Also worth noting these are hospital deaths, so not including those in care homes etc.
He'd have been better off with a photo of the 747 that says USA down the side!
Slow hand clap
It seems to me we were a little complacent with SARS, the vaccine efforts were mothballed when there were few patients, no one thought it worthwhile to develop vaccines against the common or defeated coronas, no one kept something up their sleeve just in case. For flu, the possible variants are known, educated guesses are made, and vaccine turnarounds are much less. We need much better prior art in the bank for each of the most credible pandemic threats: I'll not prejudge which diseases best fit that description.
Even with that I reckon we'd have still been sitting at home now, but with much more confidence that solutions were around the corner and that the second wave was covered.
He may talk bollx, go off into weird details about something he has done himself, and spend most of his time talking about himself, but...
he seems to remember detail - names of hospitals, governors etc etc.
Will Biden be able to do this in the debates?
Spain 65,719 +7,933 5,138 +773
https://youtu.be/i2gVXd7FzhQ
My coat?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
According to this document 80% of the victims of the 2009 flu epidemic were under the age of 65. The global death toll was estimated to be 284,000.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/06/cdc-estimate-global-h1n1-pandemic-deaths-284000
Not sure how that works out but I can't see how all of this debt will actually be paid back at the end of this?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/opinion/covid-end-of-life.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
"There are even records of a significant and unusual increase in people hospitalised in Lombardy for flu and pneumonia between October and December last year"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/27/italys-lockdown-has-been-a-recipe-for-disaster/
Pedantic point, but where else can I indulge..
Genius, very stable.
Interestingly, a similar pattern was seen in Italy - 11 days after they started the lockdown, the number of new cases stopped growing and stablised. Since then, they have plateaued for a week and the hint from the ministers / authorities (plus the early figures) is that they might start to decline over the next few days.
If this is indeed a similar pattern to other countries, we would expect numbers in France to stablise early next week and in the UK a week from today. Still predictions, but we will know better in a few days and then have a better idea of what's going to happen.
I was well enough to do some light gardening today, have a drive through swab and Zoom a Church Committee meeting. Feeling so fine that I was wondering if it was my imagination.
Then suddenly a tight chest, light headed and a real effort to breath. O2 sats remaining good, but scary.
Call it 65 tonnes to make the maths easier, what do you know that weighs only one tonne per thousand cubic feet (c.10kg/mˆ3), that might need urgently transporting?