There's no chance of the lock-down being eased on the 15th April it would seem. I still think Boris wants the country back to "normal" to celebrate VE or VC Day on May 8th.
We all want the country back by the beginning of May...I want to go to the pub, and not have people scuttle away from me in the street when I pass them like I'm a suicide bomber..I want to go the cinema...and not have to wash my hands every 5 seconds....I want to go to the barbers....
As my mum said...what we want, we don't always get....
As the Germans say, close your eyes, and you will see what you will get.
I'd mis-remembered the quote about the past being another country.
'The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there.'
Was what I thought the header was referring to. Anyway I guess 'another country' has been used variously. Do they even allude to it in Star Trek?
It won't benefit the original author at all, but I've just ordered a copy of the Go-Between.
I'm oddly happy that cyclefree didn't rebuke a rather lovely quotation.
To many oldsters (including the pseudo Blitz kids), it's the present that's the foreign country and they want to get back to the old country asap. Of course as the header suggests, they might get a nasty shock when they get there.
Good thread header @cyclefree. One bonus of this disease is the lack of Brexit headers.
We’re all just stunned that Brexit turned out quite so bad. Everyone was criticising the number on the bus for being undeliverable, yet it now looks like a serious underestimate. Meanwhile no-one latched onto our not being allowed to leave our homes.
Controlled borders and more money for the NHS. What it said on the tin!
There's no chance of the lock-down being eased on the 15th April it would seem. I still think Boris wants the country back to "normal" to celebrate VE or VC Day on May 8th.
We all want the country back by the beginning of May...I want to go to the pub, and not have people scuttle away from me in the street when I pass them like I'm a suicide bomber..I want to go the cinema...and not have to wash my hands every 5 seconds....I want to go to the barbers....
As my mum said...what we want, we don't always get....
My Gran was even more forceful: " I want never gets..."
Our teams have been working tirelessly with @MyVOCSN to produce critical care ventilators at our Kokomo, IN facility. Retooling is underway and we are poised to deliver the first ventilators next month with capacity of more than 10,000 monthly. https://bit.ly/3dyWuaV A GM subsidiary
There is another thing I noticed they have increasingly started to do...lets call it the Jim Acosta school of press conference questioning. Make a load of statements combining fact and opinion, not questions, for best part of 30s and then basically say so you are lying aren't you / you are crap aren't you?
It has Critical cases UK : 163 Italy: 3732 Spain: 4165
We're around 2 weeks or so behind those 2. To me the figures suggest we would not be overwhelmed in mid-April even assuming 5000 in critical cases. It would not be good or easy. But not overwhelming. I assume the fgures thus far are correct.
Also of course assuming the trajectories don't change for the worse.
It’s not so much a technology problem - we had a SARS vaccine ready for trials fairly soon after the outbreak a decade and a half ago, and we can now have new vaccines possibly ready for clinical trials within a matter of weeks - so much as a market one.
And there is no commercial incentive to develop new antibiotics. Though governments are starting to wake up to that.
Antibiotics kill bacteria - this is a virus. (A mistake I've made too)
But if the peak is much lower then I expect wave two will be a lot higher as people think this was much ado about nothing.
I was pondering this earlier. The first week or two, maybe month, we are allowed out I think I’ll stay in or at least socially distance/not go to busy pubs or use public transport. Paddy McGuinness tweeted asking what would be the first thing people will do, and the first answer was ‘stay in with a video’ which I quite liked.
Went to the convenience store earlier and they had those heaters that blow air out of the ceiling, I almost had a panic attack
I'm sure Trump will boast how the US' extensive testing program has identified nearly 15,000 new cases today as a great sign of success....indeed, its now the clear world leader at over 100,000.....
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Not sure any country can be ready for this entirely. I'd actually expect the next 10 days to be the worst in terms of growth. If we're like Italy, cases will then level off and plateau off for a few days before declining. If we do follow the trajectory of Italy that will give us about 6000 cases a day at the worst.
Astonishing that Boris saying he has Covid-19 has had 18.9m views..... in about 10 hours.
Look at all the other leaders who have replied and retweeted, and it's easy to understand how it manages to go, err, are we allowed to say viral any more...
Some tabloid editor has to run "Boris Goes Viral"as a headline tomorrow.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
I'd say an April peak is almost certain tbh at the current rate.
I'm sure Trump will boast how the US' extensive testing program has identified nearly 15,000 new cases today as a great sign of success....indeed, its now the clear world leader at over 100,000.....
Over a third of today’s worldwide new cases are from New York State.
I'd mis-remembered the quote about the past being another country.
'The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there.'
Was what I thought the header was referring to. Anyway I guess 'another country' has been used variously. Do they even allude to it in Star Trek?
It won't benefit the original author at all, but I've just ordered a copy of the Go-Between.
I'm oddly happy that cyclefree didn't rebuke a rather lovely quotation.
The Star Trek reference I think you are referring to is the sixth movie “The Undiscovered Country” which is one of the ways Hamlet refers to death in the “To be or not to be” soliloquy.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
I'd say an April peak is almost certain tbh at the current rate.
There's no chance of the lock-down being eased on the 15th April it would seem. I still think Boris wants the country back to "normal" to celebrate VE or VC Day on May 8th.
That's not what he's saying. The peak for new detected cases could well (probably will be) by mid-April.
One would expect that the restrictions would run for another four weeks or so from there, amd therefore you *might* expect to see an announcement re loosening on 8 May.
I'm sure Trump will boast how the US' extensive testing program has identified nearly 15,000 new cases today as a great sign of success....indeed, its now the clear world leader at over 100,000.....
He should. Testing, identifying and isolating as many carriers as possible is still the cornerstone of any sensible pandemic response. He'd be well advised to do as you suggest.
I'm feeling better today. But nervy to say so because it has been so up and down.
Excellent news, despite the understandable caution - we are all lookingg at you as our possible selves in a little while, so as well as beung pleased for you it's good for us...
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
I'd say an April peak is almost certain tbh at the current rate.
The question then is how steep is the down slope.
A week's plateau (given the latency) and then a fairly rapid fall off hopefully. I'd guess that two weeks from now (fingers crossed) we will have started the decline and in 4 weeks it should be really beginning to tail off. So another 5-7 weeks of hard lockdown to really get the numbers to a low level (hopefully almost zero) and then gear up the mass testing / antigen / antibody tests and get the country back to work in a shift like pattern to keep social distancing (e.g., 2 days working / 5 days off) until we know more about the disease and then start easing back further. But no travel outside the UK (for non-essential purposes) for the rest of the year I'd guess.
It’s not so much a technology problem - we had a SARS vaccine ready for trials fairly soon after the outbreak a decade and a half ago, and we can now have new vaccines possibly ready for clinical trials within a matter of weeks - so much as a market one.
And there is no commercial incentive to develop new antibiotics. Though governments are starting to wake up to that.
There are a lot of incentive schemes for the development of new antibiotics
Governments realised the problem almost a decade ago
Astonishing that Boris saying he has Covid-19 has had 18.9m views..... in about 10 hours.
That's almost as many as the Andrew Neil empty chair video...
One of the funniest things about PB is the number of times game changers are proclaimed that fade away in a few threads having caused barely a ripple. I remember especially BJO and his 'change is coming' meme as the Corbyn tide crept in - Boris didn't even get his feet wet in the end.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
I'd say an April peak is almost certain tbh at the current rate.
The question then is how steep is the down slope.
A week's plateau (given the latency) and then a fairly rapid fall off hopefully. I'd guess that two weeks from now (fingers crossed) we will have started the decline and in 4 weeks it should be really beginning to tail off. So another 5-7 weeks of hard lockdown to really get the numbers to a low level (hopefully almost zero) and then gear up the mass testing / antigen / antibody tests and get the country back to work in a shift like pattern to keep social distancing (e.g., 2 days working / 5 days off) until we know more about the disease and then start easing back further. But no travel outside the UK (for non-essential purposes) for the rest of the year I'd guess.
Well if/when I peg it one of my daughters is going to have to come and rescue mum, there must be many similar reasons for international travel.but then that would be essential!
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
That's very wise, because the way US GDP numbers are worked out, and a recession is defined, you could get stuffed.
So GDP that went:
100 85 88 92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
The talk of coronavirus being passed on by fecal matter in the previous thread has given me an idea. What if you could immunise against coronavirus by fecal transplant? There are two ways this could work.
1. Cultures from the poo of a sufferer are *ahem* introduced into a non sufferer in suppository form. The non sufferer doesn't get infected but develops an immunity. 2. The even more ideal option. Cultures from the poo of a healthy recoveree are introduced into a non sufferer by suppository form. The immunity is transferred.
Before anyone thinks I've gone completely off the deep end, fecal transplant is a thing. It's not a recognised treatment, but there are whole clinics for it, and it is widely agreed that the gut microbiome plays a key role in immunity and needs to be better understood.
What do you think?
crapsules are definitely a thing for the treatment of GI infections (and, I think, HAI such as c.difficile)
Yes, repopulating the gut bacteria from a healthy donor is quite an interesting idea, and becoming less fringe. Possibly of benefit for a variety of conditions.
I wouldn't try it at home though, and the whole point is establishing normal gut flora, not introducing pathogens!
Yes, of course, I understand that is the idea. But I wondered if introducing a respiratory infection to somewhere in the body it isn't known for being able to colonise (geddit) would prevent the virus from gaining a hold, whilst alerting the immune system to its presence.
A week's plateau (given the latency) and then a fairly rapid fall off hopefully. I'd guess that two weeks from now (fingers crossed) we will have started the decline and in 4 weeks it should be really beginning to tail off. So another 5-7 weeks of hard lockdown to really get the numbers to a low level (hopefully almost zero) and then gear up the mass testing / antigen / antibody tests and get the country back to work in a shift like pattern to keep social distancing (e.g., 2 days working / 5 days off) until we know more about the disease and then start easing back further. But no travel outside the UK (for non-essential purposes) for the rest of the year I'd guess.
Just to confirm: a friend's wedding is essential travel, right?
A week's plateau (given the latency) and then a fairly rapid fall off hopefully. I'd guess that two weeks from now (fingers crossed) we will have started the decline and in 4 weeks it should be really beginning to tail off. So another 5-7 weeks of hard lockdown to really get the numbers to a low level (hopefully almost zero) and then gear up the mass testing / antigen / antibody tests and get the country back to work in a shift like pattern to keep social distancing (e.g., 2 days working / 5 days off) until we know more about the disease and then start easing back further. But no travel outside the UK (for non-essential purposes) for the rest of the year I'd guess.
Just to confirm: a friend's wedding is essential travel, right?
Afraid not... will only be in case of genuine emergency I fear...
A week's plateau (given the latency) and then a fairly rapid fall off hopefully. I'd guess that two weeks from now (fingers crossed) we will have started the decline and in 4 weeks it should be really beginning to tail off. So another 5-7 weeks of hard lockdown to really get the numbers to a low level (hopefully almost zero) and then gear up the mass testing / antigen / antibody tests and get the country back to work in a shift like pattern to keep social distancing (e.g., 2 days working / 5 days off) until we know more about the disease and then start easing back further. But no travel outside the UK (for non-essential purposes) for the rest of the year I'd guess.
Just to confirm: a friend's wedding is essential travel, right?
as long as you dont intend anilingus with the bride to be
Astonishing that Boris saying he has Covid-19 has had 18.9m views..... in about 10 hours.
That's almost as many as the Andrew Neil empty chair video...
One of the funniest things about PB is the number of times game changers are proclaimed that fade away in a few threads having caused barely a ripple. I remember especially BJO and his 'change is coming' meme as the Corbyn tide crept in - Boris didn't even get his feet wet in the end.
My most fervent wish is that we'll be able to breathe a similar sigh of relief about Covid at some point...
What sort of people post comments on a dead person's Facebook page? It doesn't matter how stupid his views about the virus might have been, it still isn't appropriate.
"Following reports of his death, Spradlin's Facebook page has been littered with people mocking and criticizing him for his views on the virus."
A week's plateau (given the latency) and then a fairly rapid fall off hopefully. I'd guess that two weeks from now (fingers crossed) we will have started the decline and in 4 weeks it should be really beginning to tail off. So another 5-7 weeks of hard lockdown to really get the numbers to a low level (hopefully almost zero) and then gear up the mass testing / antigen / antibody tests and get the country back to work in a shift like pattern to keep social distancing (e.g., 2 days working / 5 days off) until we know more about the disease and then start easing back further. But no travel outside the UK (for non-essential purposes) for the rest of the year I'd guess.
Just to confirm: a friend's wedding is essential travel, right?
Depends on whether there is a free bar at the reception.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
That's very wise, because the way US GDP numbers are worked out, and a recession is defined, you could get stuffed.
So GDP that went:
100 85 88 92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
Why is the definition of a recession so arbitrary? Why not just set it at X% decline from peak within Y timeframe?
Note both SARs and Covid 19 originated in China, the Chinese government urgently needs to improve the sanitation of its food production and lab safety
This is from February 2017:
"How China can stop the world's next pandemic ..................................................................................... But every year, so-called wet markets reopen and both new and known viruses reemerge."
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
That's very wise, because the way US GDP numbers are worked out, and a recession is defined, you could get stuffed.
So GDP that went:
100 85 88 92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
Why is the definition of a recession so arbitrary? Why not just set it at X% decline from peak within Y timeframe?
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
That's very wise, because the way US GDP numbers are worked out, and a recession is defined, you could get stuffed.
So GDP that went:
100 85 88 92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
Why is the definition of a recession so arbitrary? Why not just set it at X% decline from peak within Y timeframe?
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Astonishing that Boris saying he has Covid-19 has had 18.9m views..... in about 10 hours.
That's almost as many as the Andrew Neil empty chair video...
One of the funniest things about PB is the number of times game changers are proclaimed that fade away in a few threads having caused barely a ripple. I remember especially BJO and his 'change is coming' meme as the Corbyn tide crept in - Boris didn't even get his feet wet in the end.
My most fervent wish is that we'll be able to breathe a similar sigh of relief about Covid at some point...
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Astonishing that Boris saying he has Covid-19 has had 18.9m views..... in about 10 hours.
That's almost as many as the Andrew Neil empty chair video...
One of the funniest things about PB is the number of times game changers are proclaimed that fade away in a few threads having caused barely a ripple. I remember especially BJO and his 'change is coming' meme as the Corbyn tide crept in - Boris didn't even get his feet wet in the end.
My most fervent wish is that we'll be able to breathe a similar sigh of relief about Covid at some point...
Is that all there is to a pandemic?
That's all there is my friend, so let's keep dancing...
Note both SARs and Covid 19 originated in China, the Chinese government urgently needs to improve the sanitation of its food production and lab safety
This is from February 2017:
"How China can stop the world's next pandemic ..................................................................................... But every year, so-called wet markets reopen and both new and known viruses reemerge."
What sort of people post comments on a dead person's Facebook page? It doesn't matter how stupid his views about the virus might have been, it still isn't appropriate.
"Following reports of his death, Spradlin's Facebook page has been littered with people mocking and criticizing him for his views on the virus."
Well since we cannot pelt the condemned with rotten vegetables on their way to the gibbet anymore people find an out I suppose.
A week's plateau (given the latency) and then a fairly rapid fall off hopefully. I'd guess that two weeks from now (fingers crossed) we will have started the decline and in 4 weeks it should be really beginning to tail off. So another 5-7 weeks of hard lockdown to really get the numbers to a low level (hopefully almost zero) and then gear up the mass testing / antigen / antibody tests and get the country back to work in a shift like pattern to keep social distancing (e.g., 2 days working / 5 days off) until we know more about the disease and then start easing back further. But no travel outside the UK (for non-essential purposes) for the rest of the year I'd guess.
Just to confirm: a friend's wedding is essential travel, right?
Afraid not... will only be in case of genuine emergency I fear...
A friend's wedding might be a genuine emergency though...
Why does anyone think we might reach a peak in mid-April?
This seems unduly optimistic to me. Italy's experience should be a warning that even with the current restrictions in place the it may not be possible to slow the growth of Covid-19 cases across the UK for many weeks to come.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
That's very wise, because the way US GDP numbers are worked out, and a recession is defined, you could get stuffed.
So GDP that went:
100 85 88 92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
Why is the definition of a recession so arbitrary? Why not just set it at X% decline from peak within Y timeframe?
And if you believe President Trump, you'll believe anyone.
He clearly loves claiming foreign leaders say specific things to him (usually about how great he is) because he can be assured in almost all cases he will not be contradicted. Of course, the flattery he often says he gets is probably to an extent true (I seen to recall the President of Ukraine did so) because it'd be a good way of getting him to listen, though clearly the way they always seem to say things convenient for Trump personally is bullcrap.
Off topic, I managed to get through to the DWP Universal Credit support lines 3 times today and get help each time on behalf of clients.
The lines are no doubt facing an unprecedented level of calls, so hats off to the DWP for keeping the service going and full-marks to the agents answering the phones (in Norrthern Ireland, I believe) who were as calm and helpful as ever.
I think tonight is the first time I really do think the real economy will be unable to withstand this...it's all too fragile. It's not geared up for this kind of shock...this horrible virus is going to take the whole thing down...banks, personal finances, national finances...and everything that goes with it...there is no safe place for money....the only good thing about gold will be to wear it....
Not quite that bad. Even untreated and untreatable epidemics sweep through quite quickly.
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Having backed the US recession on BFE at 3.3 and 2.88, I have cashed in 1.12. The extra few quid isn’t worth taking the risk of a V, or double V dip with the recession missing on a technicality.
That's very wise, because the way US GDP numbers are worked out, and a recession is defined, you could get stuffed.
So GDP that went:
100 85 88 92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
Why is the definition of a recession so arbitrary? Why not just set it at X% decline from peak within Y timeframe?
Good question. Don't know.
WP says: In a 1974 The New York Times article, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5-2 percentage points rise in unemployment within 12 months.
A week's plateau (given the latency) and then a fairly rapid fall off hopefully. I'd guess that two weeks from now (fingers crossed) we will have started the decline and in 4 weeks it should be really beginning to tail off. So another 5-7 weeks of hard lockdown to really get the numbers to a low level (hopefully almost zero) and then gear up the mass testing / antigen / antibody tests and get the country back to work in a shift like pattern to keep social distancing (e.g., 2 days working / 5 days off) until we know more about the disease and then start easing back further. But no travel outside the UK (for non-essential purposes) for the rest of the year I'd guess.
Just to confirm: a friend's wedding is essential travel, right?
Afraid not... will only be in case of genuine emergency I fear...
A friend's wedding might be a genuine emergency though...
If wedding parties are limited to five people, you'd be lucky to get in anyway.
Why does anyone think we might reach a peak in mid-April?
This seems unduly optimistic to me. Italy's experience should be a warning that even with the current restrictions in place the it may not be possible to slow the growth of Covid-19 cases across the UK for many weeks to come.
It is optimistic, clearly, but if one assumed a week of partial voluntary lockdown, then, say, 3 weeks of full lockdown, and a peak of mid-April is not a huge amount out whilst seeming reasonable. But I'd expect April to be a write off, frankly.
Comments
It has Critical cases UK : 163 Italy: 3732 Spain: 4165
We're around 2 weeks or so behind those 2. To me the figures suggest we would not be overwhelmed in mid-April even assuming 5000 in critical cases. It would not be good or easy. But not overwhelming. I assume the fgures thus far are correct.
Also of course assuming the trajectories don't change for the worse.
Went to the convenience store earlier and they had those heaters that blow air out of the ceiling, I almost had a panic attack
Indeed, with the rate of spread, I think that an April peak is very possible. A lot then depends on the economic recovery, but I wouldn't expect a great overhang. Even if places go bust and staff are on the dole, the facilities will reopen under new management and re-hire.
Some tabloid editor has to run "Boris Goes Viral"as a headline tomorrow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuLC7RquE8w
https://www.newsweek.com/virginia-pastor-dies-coronavirus-after-previously-saying-media-pumping-out-fear-about-pandemic-1494702
One would expect that the restrictions would run for another four weeks or so from there, amd therefore you *might* expect to see an announcement re loosening on 8 May.
He'd be well advised to do as you suggest.
Google Bans Infowars Android App Over Coronavirus Claims
Apple kicked Alex Jones out of the App Store in 2018. The Google Play Store has finally followed suit.
https://www.wired.com/story/google-bans-infowars-android-app-alex-jones-coronavirus/
A week's plateau (given the latency) and then a fairly rapid fall off hopefully. I'd guess that two weeks from now (fingers crossed) we will have started the decline and in 4 weeks it should be really beginning to tail off. So another 5-7 weeks of hard lockdown to really get the numbers to a low level (hopefully almost zero) and then gear up the mass testing / antigen / antibody tests and get the country back to work in a shift like pattern to keep social distancing (e.g., 2 days working / 5 days off) until we know more about the disease and then start easing back further. But no travel outside the UK (for non-essential purposes) for the rest of the year I'd guess.
And MERS originated in Saudi Arabia.
I might point out that syphilis came out of the US too.
Governments realised the problem almost a decade ago
as the Corbyn tide crept in - Boris didn't even get his feet wet in the end.
Well if/when I peg it one of my daughters is going to have to come and rescue mum, there must be many similar reasons for international travel.but then that would be essential!
So GDP that went:
100
85
88
92
Would be no recession, as there was only one quarter of negative growth, even though the economy was dramatically smaller at year end than at the start.
https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/fr-berardelli-was-a-man-of-self-sacrifice-but-reports-of-a-donated-respirator-are-not-true-10682
I far prefer the one hour episodes of Poirot to the two hour episodes.
"Following reports of his death, Spradlin's Facebook page has been littered with people mocking and criticizing him for his views on the virus."
"How China can stop the world's next pandemic
.....................................................................................
But every year, so-called wet markets reopen and both new and known viruses reemerge."
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/02/27/commentary/world-commentary/china-can-stop-worlds-next-pandemic/#.Xn5wN_zAPMI
I am a major Google Apps user. But I'm about to get a phone without access to the Google apps ecosystem. (Yes, you know who.)
I can hack the various apps on. But realistically, should I move my calendar, contacts and email to another service?
And if so, does anyone recommend one?
I resisted going down the O365 route for years, but it's now genuinely the best option. $12.95 a month.
This seems unduly optimistic to me. Italy's experience should be a warning that even with the current restrictions in place the it may not be possible to slow the growth of Covid-19 cases across the UK for many weeks to come.
The lines are no doubt facing an unprecedented level of calls, so hats off to the DWP for keeping the service going and full-marks to the agents answering the phones (in Norrthern Ireland, I believe) who were as calm and helpful as ever.
If wedding parties are limited to five people, you'd be lucky to get in anyway.