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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:




    When did the South Korean outbreak start ?
    Late Jan.
    And what is going on in Japan ?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/a-coronavirus-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it
    The Japanese are also scrupulous about hygiene, which may play a role in slowing its spread.
    Indeed.
    The progression (or not) of the pandemic in ROK and Japan is one of the more interesting things to watch.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:




    When did the South Korean outbreak start ?
    Late Jan.
    And what is going on in Japan ?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/a-coronavirus-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it
    The Japanese are also scrupulous about hygiene, which may play a role in slowing its spread.
    Bathtime with EiT ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLau1ANQO2I
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    All the best, Charles.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Mortimer said:

    I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear :#

    Try your corner or smaller shops
    Ones empty, ones closed. Believe me, I've done some miles today.
    Forgive the prying, but I'd be interested to know if small town/large town/city?

    I live in the big Dorset conurbation, and around here every shop is open with no real shortages except cleaning products. The corner shops are rammed with stuff.
    Dorset has a conurbation? :smiley:
    Bournemouth-Poole-Christchurch.

    Because it doesn't have a big city in the middle and votes Conservative its not thought of as a conurbation.
    Sounds to me like the most con urbation of all?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898



    If people carry on like that, then there will be a lockdown on Spanish levels.

    As I opined earlier, all the talk of a lockdown yesterday on social media and elsewhere caused renewed panic buying.

    Johnson should either have declared a lockdown or said there would not be one. The equivocation has made matters worse.

    The people Johnson and Sunak need to be targeting are those like the office cleaner who was told she had to keep going in to clean offices which had been deserted by the usual occupiers. She has to keep working because, like so many in London, she can't afford not to.

    If each day's pay is vital for survival, self isolation for 14 days is just not an option. Helping business is one thing - direct help to individuals would be so much better.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    stodge said:



    If people carry on like that, then there will be a lockdown on Spanish levels.

    As I opined earlier, all the talk of a lockdown yesterday on social media and elsewhere caused renewed panic buying.

    Johnson should either have declared a lockdown or said there would not be one. The equivocation has made matters worse.

    The people Johnson and Sunak need to be targeting are those like the office cleaner who was told she had to keep going in to clean offices which had been deserted by the usual occupiers. She has to keep working because, like so many in London, she can't afford not to.

    If each day's pay is vital for survival, self isolation for 14 days is just not an option. Helping business is one thing - direct help to individuals would be so much better.
    See last thread...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003

    Just secured a Sainsbury delivery. Praise the heavens.

    Must have ramped up their local drivers.

    https://twitter.com/amanixrose/status/1240210767217033217
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    Trump is really losing it

    "Trump sows confusion with claim coronavirus drug will be ready soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-drug-trump-confusion-malaria-treatment-readiness

    "Donald Trump has sown fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials."
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:




    When did the South Korean outbreak start ?
    Late Jan.
    And what is going on in Japan ?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/a-coronavirus-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it
    The Japanese are also scrupulous about hygiene, which may play a role in slowing its spread.
    Red slippers for the bathroom toilet only. Do not wear them anywhere else. Don't even think about it. Even if you are in a hotel room on your own, don't wear the red slippers in the bedroom. They will know!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,003
    CatMan said:

    Trump is really losing it

    "Trump sows confusion with claim coronavirus drug will be ready soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-drug-trump-confusion-malaria-treatment-readiness

    "Donald Trump has sown fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials."

    BoZo not much better

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1240698794741649408
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    A good thread visualising the French hydroxychloroquine trial:
    https://twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1240498020082503680


    Take home for me is that a larger trial is needed.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited March 2020
    The resource for the homeless at the Madrid Fair (Ifema) will delay its opening until Friday, instead of this Thursday, in Hall 14 of the fairground with capacity for 150 asymptomatic people - expandable to 600 - in the face of the coronavirus crisis . As indicated by the head of Samur Social, Darío Pérez, the entity that has put itself in charge of the resource, the Red Cross has provided the beds, Ifema has made available "all supplies" (in addition to the installation, water, electricity, furniture) and the UME has provided the “logistical means” and the installation of the struggles. Source: EFE

    Are there similar initiatives in the UK?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Stephen Bush seems to be forgetting that Labour and Lib Dems are either leaderless or incapable of finding a leader.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/03/london-lockdown-coronavirus-uk-national-government
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Scott_xP said:

    CatMan said:

    Trump is really losing it

    "Trump sows confusion with claim coronavirus drug will be ready soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-drug-trump-confusion-malaria-treatment-readiness

    "Donald Trump has sown fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials."

    BoZo not much better

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1240698794741649408
    Difference is that Trump is simply making shit up.
    Boris is just rendered inarticulate by over reliance on his grab bag of metaphors.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    Our first Abel & Cole delivery should arrive tomorrow. They have had to remove avocados from the order. Doesn't bother me; can't stand the things.

    Meanwhile Riverford have launched a new website. Looks very nice, but you can't order anything.

    We've still got 16 bog rolls, so a while before jet washing is required.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    dr_spyn said:

    Stephen Bush seems to be forgetting that Labour and Lib Dems are either leaderless or incapable of finding a leader.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/03/london-lockdown-coronavirus-uk-national-government

    Not quite sure why the snide comment is required. Both parties publicly stated their leadership election processes long before coronavirus dominated the news.

    Both Labour and the LDs have leaders in position - Corbyn is still Labour leader and Ed Davey leads the LDs. IF Johnson wants to talk to other parties (that's not really his style), he has people who can be contacted.

    Implying there are no party leaders on the Opposition benches is just a cheap shot.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    Apparently we can’t extend the Brexit transition because Brexiteers will think it proves coronavirus is a Remoaner plot.

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1240556026803490818?s=21
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    stodge said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Stephen Bush seems to be forgetting that Labour and Lib Dems are either leaderless or incapable of finding a leader.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/03/london-lockdown-coronavirus-uk-national-government

    Not quite sure why the snide comment is required. Both parties publicly stated their leadership election processes long before coronavirus dominated the news.

    Both Labour and the LDs have leaders in position - Corbyn is still Labour leader and Ed Davey leads the LDs. IF Johnson wants to talk to other parties (that's not really his style), he has people who can be contacted.

    Implying there are no party leaders on the Opposition benches is just a cheap shot.
    I thought cross party talks were used by DoH
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Question Time much better with no audience, just sensible analysis without points scoring
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear :#

    Try your corner or smaller shops
    I cannot understand why Johnson isn't acting on this aspect.
    I used to take the piss out of my father for hoarding like a doomsday prepper, he's had the last laugh, and I'm glad.
    And to make you feel a bit better about Yo Sushi....

    'Sushi parasites' have increased 283-fold in past 40 years
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15048
    Ewww, don't tell me stuff like that.

    When this over the first place I'm visiting a sushi place.
    I stopped eating sushi after I advised the owners of the world's top aquaculture company when they sold the business.

    Did you know that fish have lice?

    https://responsibleaquaculture.wordpress.com/2014/03/08/more-sea-lice-outbreaks-in-chilean-fish-farms/
    Did you know that you have lice on your face?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demodex_folliculorum
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Apparently we can’t extend the Brexit transition because Brexiteers will think it proves coronavirus is a Remoaner plot.

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1240556026803490818?s=21

    It will drive them Bats?

    Ah, my coat...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Please flatten the curve and stay at home, but please do not go into couch mode. Like everyone, I have moments where imagining the worst possible Covid-19 scenario steals my breath. But cowering in the dark places of our minds doesn’t help. Rather than private panic, we need public-spirited action. Those of us walking into the rooms of Covid-19-positive patients every day need you and your minds, your networks, your creative solutions, and your voices to be fighting for us. We might be the exhausted masked face trying to resuscitate you when you show up on the doorstep of our hospital. And when you do, I promise not to panic. I’ll use every ounce of my expertise to keep you alive. Please, do the same for us.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/opinion/coronavirus-doctor-new-york.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Apparently we can’t extend the Brexit transition because Brexiteers will think it proves coronavirus is a Remoaner plot.

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1240556026803490818?s=21

    They tried every other trick to delay Brexit.

    :p
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    During the Great Plague of the 17th century of course many wealthier Londoners fled the city for the countryside, whether some follow suit today before a London lockdown remains to be seen

    I'm staying. I go down with the ship. I was not born here but London has made me the man I am today. If I am to exit the stage before my time - if I will never again queue for a crepe at the Hampstead crepe van - well so be it. My ashes will grace the Heath.
    I’ll be staying.
    “Maybe it’s because I’m not a Londoner...”
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    @Charles

    Hope and best wishes for your father, family and yourself.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065



    We've still got 16 bog rolls, so a while before jet washing is required.

    TMI
  • Best wishes, @Charles.

    I've reached my nightly coronavirus curfew so I'm signing off for now. Have people in the house to fix my bathroom tomorrow, which is somewhat anxiety-provoking. Much bleach will be sprayed afterwards...

    --AS
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    During the Great Plague of the 17th century of course many wealthier Londoners fled the city for the countryside, whether some follow suit today before a London lockdown remains to be seen

    I'm staying. I go down with the ship. I was not born here but London has made me the man I am today. If I am to exit the stage before my time - if I will never again queue for a crepe at the Hampstead crepe van - well so be it. My ashes will grace the Heath.
    I’ll be staying.
    “Maybe it’s because I’m not a Londoner...”
    London Borough of Havering, mate :)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Apparently we can’t extend the Brexit transition because Brexiteers will think it proves coronavirus is a Remoaner plot.

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1240556026803490818?s=21

    I think you have a serious OCD mental illness William
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    Apparently we can’t extend the Brexit transition because Brexiteers will think it proves coronavirus is a Remoaner plot.

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1240556026803490818?s=21

    Brexit happened on 31st January

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1240404417439989766?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Best wishes to @Charles and his father
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
    We will. Our numbers today are identical to Italy 3 weeks ago.

    We have less CC beds per 100,000 population than Italy.

    Even 12,000 ventilated beds is less per Capita than Italy.

    We will breach our capacity in a fortnight if the same mathematical increases continue.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    edited March 2020
    This quote from a piece on the large disparity in coronavirus deaths between men and women makes an excellent point:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/03/19/coronavirus-kills-more-men-than-women/
    ...Harlan Krumholz, a professor of cardiology and outcomes research at Yale Medical School, cautioned that comparing countries is a tricky endeavor. “We don’t know numerators or denominators. The information is not comparable,” he said.
    He said the best information was probably from South Korea, because it tested so many people. “Everywhere else is biased,” he said, depending on who is doing the testing, who is considered severe enough to be hospitalized, and how you determine whether a death is related to the virus or not.
    He worries that insufficient data is hampering doctors, scientists and public officials, making it more difficult to have a real-time understanding of the extent of the disease and the most effective ways to respond.
    “We should be able to do this,” he said. “This is revealing our great ignorance in the midst of an information age.”...


    Though, as it points out, even the Korean data is skewed by the sheer numbers tested in a single congregation, where young women were greatly over represented.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
    Had our government realised the magnitude of this early enough we could easily have ended up like New Zealand.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
    We will. Our numbers today are identical to Italy 3 weeks ago.

    We have less CC beds per 100,000 population than Italy.

    Even 12,000 ventilated beds is less per Capita than Italy.

    We will breach our capacity in a fortnight if the same mathematical increases continue.
    I hope and believe it will not, as we perhaps started social distancing just in time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
    Had our government realised the magnitude of this early enough we could easily have ended up like New Zealand.
    I was one of those agitating for earlier action, and as you know, I’m the opposite of a Boris fan. But I do give some credit to them for changing course.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Best wishes to your Dad @Charles, fingers crossed for a full recovery
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_xP said:
    In my town you cannot buy an egg. I got some toilet roll though
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    HYUFD said:

    Question Time much better with no audience, just sensible analysis without points scoring

    Any chance the BBC will make the change permanent?

    Also an opportunity for BBC/ITV to wean themselves off the dependence on soaps in their prime time schedules.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    JM1 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.

    If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
    There are probably still social interactions. Going to the shops, for one.
    There's people who were infected before the lock down still getting tested positive.
    There's members of the same household getting infected.
    There's loads of people still going to work.
    There's people getting infected in hospitals, care homes etc
    All those matter. And (1) is probably still the biggest factor right now.

    But it's not about getting to zero, it's about getting an R0 that is nearer 0.2 than 3. And as the number of social interactions in Italy is probably down 90+%, and as people are a lot more cautious, and are using soap, etc.m we can be reasonably confident that it will come down fairly quickly.

    Now, everyone is fixating on the total Italian number, but it's worth looking at the numbers for the Veneto area, which was one of the first two hotspots.

    The number of new cases jumped above 200 for the first time on 12/3. It has been above there every day since, peaking at 510. It's now 270. Now it's too early to celebrate yet. But it's possible that we'll see the first number under 200 tomorrow. That would be a more than halving from the peak.

    And where Veneto goes, the rest of Italy will follow (with a lag).
    Hmm. But what about Lombardy? I can accept that the rushing away from the north will seed cases elsewhere for a period, but would one not expect the cases in Lombardy to peak at the same time as the Veneto? If you have evidence that would be great, as I'm getting quite nervous that the lockdown is not working as well as one might hope...
    The problem is - of course - that there's a huge amount of random variation in the daily numbers.

    I think the most sensible thing is to look at the four or five day moving average, albeit that means that means it takes even longer for us to be certain.

    The five day moving average of new cases for Lombardy reached just under 1,500 five days ago, and is now a little over 1,600. We will need to wait a few days to see if the 2,100 number is a sign of the virus running rampant, of more testing of the asymptomatic, or is just a blip.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    Scott_xP said:

    CatMan said:

    Trump is really losing it

    "Trump sows confusion with claim coronavirus drug will be ready soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-drug-trump-confusion-malaria-treatment-readiness

    "Donald Trump has sown fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials."

    BoZo not much better

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1240698794741649408
    I don't see anything wrong with that. We MIGHT do it by then, doesn't mean we WILL, but there is HOPE. And it gives us a timescale, we're not seeing a downtrend till late June, so it's preparatory. Be prepared to wade through a load of shit, but it's not for no reason. Which is the best offer I personally have been given by a government in a long time. Certainly better than arguing about Brexit for three years in a series of increasingly futile endeavours.

    In a way it's what leadership is about - like those old soviet pictures, the workers rallying around one individual who is pointing them to the distance - the future - glorious communism! But even better communism than the communism we have at the moment, which is also great.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    CatMan said:

    Trump is really losing it

    "Trump sows confusion with claim coronavirus drug will be ready soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-drug-trump-confusion-malaria-treatment-readiness

    "Donald Trump has sown fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials."

    He's not.

    It's his modus operandi. He announces something will be ready soon (like his really big plan for health care reform from 2017), and then drops it.

    It works. People get buoyed by the announcement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    JM1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
    Just trying to work out if this is a serious comment! Do you think we have pivoted sufficiently?
    Not really, no. I still don’t understand the aversion to taking stronger action sooner rather than later when you’re dealing with something so contagious,
    But it could be a lot worse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    rcs1000 said:

    CatMan said:

    Trump is really losing it

    "Trump sows confusion with claim coronavirus drug will be ready soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-drug-trump-confusion-malaria-treatment-readiness

    "Donald Trump has sown fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials."

    He's not.

    It's his modus operandi. He announces something will be ready soon (like his really big plan for health care reform from 2017), and then drops it.

    It works. People get buoyed by the announcement.
    Until they start dying.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,838
    Monkeys said:

    Scott_xP said:

    CatMan said:

    Trump is really losing it

    "Trump sows confusion with claim coronavirus drug will be ready soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-drug-trump-confusion-malaria-treatment-readiness

    "Donald Trump has sown fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials."

    BoZo not much better

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1240698794741649408
    I don't see anything wrong with that. We MIGHT do it by then, doesn't mean we WILL, but there is HOPE. And it gives us a timescale, we're not seeing a downtrend till late June, so it's preparatory. Be prepared to wade through a load of shit, but it's not for no reason. Which is the best offer I personally have been given by a government in a long time. Certainly better than arguing about Brexit for three years in a series of increasingly futile endeavours.

    In a way it's what leadership is about - like those old soviet pictures, the workers rallying around one individual who is pointing them to the distance - the future - glorious communism! But even better communism than the communism we have at the moment, which is also great.
    Sounds good, how did it turn out for the Soviet workers, I guess production rates must have been better than the West?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
    We will. Our numbers today are identical to Italy 3 weeks ago.

    We have less CC beds per 100,000 population than Italy.

    Even 12,000 ventilated beds is less per Capita than Italy.

    We will breach our capacity in a fortnight if the same mathematical increases continue.
    I hope and believe it will not, as we perhaps started social distancing just in time.
    Do people really understand what social distancing is or self isolation?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    rcs1000 said:

    kamski said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.

    If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
    There are probably still social interactions. Going to the shops, for one.
    There's people who were infected before the lock down still getting tested positive.
    There's members of the same household getting infected.
    There's loads of people still going to work.
    There's people getting infected in hospitals, care homes etc
    All those matter. And (1) is probably still the biggest factor right now.

    But it's not about getting to zero, it's about getting an R0 that is nearer 0.2 than 3. And as the number of social interactions in Italy is probably down 90+%, and as people are a lot more cautious, and are using soap, etc.m we can be reasonably confident that it will come down fairly quickly.

    Now, everyone is fixating on the total Italian number, but it's worth looking at the numbers for the Veneto area, which was one of the first two hotspots.

    The number of new cases jumped above 200 for the first time on 12/3. It has been above there every day since, peaking at 510. It's now 270. Now it's too early to celebrate yet. But it's possible that we'll see the first number under 200 tomorrow. That would be a more than halving from the peak.

    And where Veneto goes, the rest of Italy will follow (with a lag).
    One further question that should have been asked:

    If we start lifting the restrictions in late June - is that it, or is it merely the end of the first cycle (as per the pulsing-restrictions-on-and-off-again recommendation in the IC paper)?
    Because, after all, as the issue with the suppression method has always been: it doesn’t fix the problem; just stretches it out. A rebound peak should immediately start to build at that point, according to the modelling.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Scott_xP said:
    No politician of any party?

    What are they smoking?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
    We will. Our numbers today are identical to Italy 3 weeks ago.

    We have less CC beds per 100,000 population than Italy.

    Even 12,000 ventilated beds is less per Capita than Italy.

    We will breach our capacity in a fortnight if the same mathematical increases continue.
    I hope and believe it will not, as we perhaps started social distancing just in time.
    Let's hope you are right I really hope you are but fear we started too late after the brief flirtation with the Herd Immunity stuff.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Defenders gonna defend
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Hancock a good advert for government, no point scoring and straightish answers as have all panel members Andy Burnham is a great loss to the PLP
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Barnesian said:




    Great graph we really look a lot more like Italy than S Korea
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    edited March 2020

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:




    When did the South Korean outbreak start ?
    Late Jan.
    And what is going on in Japan ?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/a-coronavirus-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it
    The Japanese are also scrupulous about hygiene, which may play a role in slowing its spread.
    Bathtime with EiT ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLau1ANQO2I
    I'm reliably informed that it's even 'better' in Thailand. But only informed!!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,385
    Scott_xP said:

    CatMan said:

    Trump is really losing it

    "Trump sows confusion with claim coronavirus drug will be ready soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-drug-trump-confusion-malaria-treatment-readiness

    "Donald Trump has sown fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials."

    BoZo not much better

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1240698794741649408

    I understand the Government has to play its cards close to its chest. It can't just say for example, 'tomorrow at 1900 we will lock down the UK', as that would give rise to over 24 hours of pandemonium.

    So Johnson has a difficult job balancing information with practicalities. That said he was dire tonight. Whitty and Vallance in charge of the grown-up stuff with Boris acting as Master of Ceremonies has been OK throughout the week. Tonight it was Boris' turn to run the show and it was quite disconcerting.

    The detested pair of Blair and Brown, Cameron or even Mrs May would have been able to pitch the message to resonate with the audience, just how serious the problem is, and enough reassurance to avert panic. Johnson's mixed message and cheery optimism just don't cut it during this crisis.

    So on topic, many more press conferences like tioday's and Corbyn will look like a safe pair of hands.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Scott_xP said:
    The issue is the berks and jerks who demanded daily information, press conferences and interrogation.

    The standard of questions from journalists are abysmal and mind numbing in trrms of stupidity and seeking gotcha moments.

    Two or three times a week may be ok. Daily is useless and enough to bore any PM.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Thanks all re: my Dad.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    nichomar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
    We will. Our numbers today are identical to Italy 3 weeks ago.

    We have less CC beds per 100,000 population than Italy.

    Even 12,000 ventilated beds is less per Capita than Italy.

    We will breach our capacity in a fortnight if the same mathematical increases continue.
    I hope and believe it will not, as we perhaps started social distancing just in time.
    Do people really understand what social distancing is or self isolation?
    Some.
    Hopefully, enough.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    JM1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    JM1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
    Just trying to work out if this is a serious comment! Do you think we have pivoted sufficiently?
    Not really, no. I still don’t understand the aversion to taking stronger action sooner rather than later when you’re dealing with something so contagious,
    But it could be a lot worse.
    I agree with you - and do feel we are doing a bit more than (e.g.) Italy was at the equivalent point, which gives me a little bit of hope.

    I disagree at best we are acting on par with Italy at the same point.

    If anything we are behind in that respect

    Again I really hope your optimism is well placed and my pessimism misplaced.

    Anyone care to explain why our best case of circa 20k deaths is a good outcome when you see how Germany S Korea and China doing much better.
  • Best wishes to @Charles and his father

    ^ this
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    The Valencian Government has contracted the construction of three field hospitals in Valencia, Alicante and Castellón with a total capacity of 1,100 beds, of which half a thousand will be ready within a period of fifteen days, in addition to closing agreements with hospitals to increase the number of care beds in the fight against coronavirus
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    philiph said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The issue is the berks and jerks who demanded daily information, press conferences and interrogation.

    The standard of questions from journalists are abysmal and mind numbing in trrms of stupidity and seeking gotcha moments.

    Two or three times a week may be ok. Daily is useless and enough to bore any PM.
    Then he should get someone resilient, and relentlessly on message, to do it for him.
    If you’re relying on people to police their own social interaction, then you need to communicate with them, continuously.

    Blaming journalists doesn’t cut it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    nichomar said:

    Hancock a good advert for government, no point scoring and straightish answers as have all panel members Andy Burnham is a great loss to the PLP

    Burnham seems totally different to how he was in the Labour leadership campaign.

    Maybe he just wasn't ready then?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    No politician of any party?

    What are they smoking?
    It's the same old same old - twitter and the London media herd hate Boris and this colours everything they write and say. The polls say massive Tory lead and growing satisfaction with Boris as leader. They didn't get it before he won London .. twice and they didn't get it in December. They never will. It's amusing as someone who isn't his greatest fan at all but I get why people like him. Right now he has the most god awful job on his hands and he's playing it pretty straight. Everyone who now wants more done will be screaming from the rooftops when the lockdown starts as they have no clue what it means. Oh and btw there is no guarantee it's working here in Spain or Italy or France right now and we could be months before we're any the wiser. Give him a break ffs.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    JM1 said:

    JM1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    JM1 said:

    Nigelb said:

    eristdoof said:

    Nigelb said:
    That is a terrible bar chart. "In Lombardy alone 20% ..." and the graph shows Lombardy at 1.5%.
    Had not our government sensibly carried out a policy pivot, we could easily have ended up like Italy.
    Just trying to work out if this is a serious comment! Do you think we have pivoted sufficiently?
    Not really, no. I still don’t understand the aversion to taking stronger action sooner rather than later when you’re dealing with something so contagious,
    But it could be a lot worse.
    I agree with you - and do feel we are doing a bit more than (e.g.) Italy was at the equivalent point, which gives me a little bit of hope.
    I disagree at best we are acting on par with Italy at the same point.

    If anything we are behind in that respect

    Again I really hope your optimism is well placed and my pessimism misplaced.

    Anyone care to explain why our best case of circa 20k deaths is a good outcome when you see how Germany S Korea and China doing much better.

    Why do you think we are behind Italy? Just genuinely curious.

    It might be my perception I guess but from what I see.They never went for herd Immunity even in the early stages.

    I think we acted at a slightly later stage of virus progress on a lot of things like shutting schools.

    Does anyone have a factual comparison between them and us.

    I would be extremely happy to be corrected particularly as myself and the wife are both in the high risk category
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    HYUFD said:

    Question Time much better with no audience, just sensible analysis without points scoring

    Look and learn.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    Disappointed that once again no announcements of help for the bottom 25%, the newly unemployed, the ones struggling with their rent
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    The UK, with 144 deaths and 3269 confirmed cases, is today almost exactly where Italy was two weeks ago on 5th March (148 deaths and 3296 confirmed cases).

    Have we already done enough to prevent us tracking Italy for the next two weeks? I am not sure that we have, sadly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    A couple of interesting factoids I have found out today.

    70% of Germany's positive cases are under 50.

    Although South Korea has an the aging population, the proportion of over 65 year olds is less than here and no where near Japan levels.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Question Time much better with no audience, just sensible analysis without points scoring

    Look and learn.
    pointless saying that to cchq rentagob
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Senate Republicans are on the verge of introducing a sweeping, $1 trillion emergency economic aid proposal in response to coronavirus pandemic.

    The proposal would include direct payments to Americans under a certain income threshold, $200 billion in loans to airlines and distressed industry sectors, and $300 in forgivable bridge loans for small businesses.

    The proposal, a draft of which was obtained by CNN, underscores the scale of the economic crisis now facing individuals and businesses across the country amid the accelerating pandemic and addresses bolstering health care resources, student loans and aid, business tax provisions and temporary authority.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    The UK, with 144 deaths and 3269 confirmed cases, is today almost exactly where Italy was two weeks ago on 5th March (148 deaths and 3296 confirmed cases).

    Have we already done enough to prevent us tracking Italy for the next two weeks? I am not sure that we have, sadly.

    Except we have the advantage that we live two weeks in the future.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,838
    IanB2 said:

    Senate Republicans are on the verge of introducing a sweeping, $1 trillion emergency economic aid proposal in response to coronavirus pandemic.

    The proposal would include direct payments to Americans under a certain income threshold, $200 billion in loans to airlines and distressed industry sectors, and $300 in forgivable bridge loans for small businesses.

    The proposal, a draft of which was obtained by CNN, underscores the scale of the economic crisis now facing individuals and businesses across the country amid the accelerating pandemic and addresses bolstering health care resources, student loans and aid, business tax provisions and temporary authority.

    $300 in loans might be a bit light for small businesses.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Pagan2 said:

    Disappointed that once again no announcements of help for the bottom 25%, the newly unemployed, the ones struggling with their rent

    I think those are due tomorrow, at least based on what was said at the press conference.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    Scott_xP said:

    CatMan said:

    Trump is really losing it

    "Trump sows confusion with claim coronavirus drug will be ready soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-drug-trump-confusion-malaria-treatment-readiness

    "Donald Trump has sown fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials."

    BoZo not much better

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1240698794741649408

    I understand the Government has to play its cards close to its chest. It can't just say for example, 'tomorrow at 1900 we will lock down the UK', as that would give rise to over 24 hours of pandemonium.

    So Johnson has a difficult job balancing information with practicalities. That said he was dire tonight. Whitty and Vallance in charge of the grown-up stuff with Boris acting as Master of Ceremonies has been OK throughout the week. Tonight it was Boris' turn to run the show and it was quite disconcerting.

    The detested pair of Blair and Brown, Cameron or even Mrs May would have been able to pitch the message to resonate with the audience, just how serious the problem is, and enough reassurance to avert panic. Johnson's mixed message and cheery optimism just don't cut it during this crisis.

    So on topic, many more press conferences like tioday's and Corbyn will look like a safe pair of hands.
    You should try to excise your Central American values.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Pagan2 said:

    Disappointed that once again no announcements of help for the bottom 25%, the newly unemployed, the ones struggling with their rent

    Boris said Sunak would be making some announcements tomorrow. I'm not holding my breath but it does appear that backbench Tory MPs are giving the government some grief over lack of support for individuals.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878
    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Disappointed that once again no announcements of help for the bottom 25%, the newly unemployed, the ones struggling with their rent

    I think those are due tomorrow, at least based on what was said at the press conference.
    Considering the numbers involved and sitting at home wondering how they are going to get through the next month its a little late in the day dont you think
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    edited March 2020
    Tangential question: Assuming the airports remain almost totally closed, what effect is the shutdown of international travel going to have on seasonal flu? Will we be looking at just what's here now that's already had it's shot at the population and is heading towards being housetrained?

    I guess what I'm asking is, would it be worth going into near isolation until spring 2021 as an NHS pressure reduction tool?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878

    Pagan2 said:

    Disappointed that once again no announcements of help for the bottom 25%, the newly unemployed, the ones struggling with their rent

    Boris said Sunak would be making some announcements tomorrow. I'm not holding my breath but it does appear that backbench Tory MPs are giving the government some grief over lack of support for individuals.
    Yes but like you not holding my breath, frankly I dont believe any of our mp's of any party understand how on the edge about a third of the country are forced to live
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:




    When did the South Korean outbreak start ?
    Late Jan.
    And what is going on in Japan ?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/a-coronavirus-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it
    The Japanese are also scrupulous about hygiene, which may play a role in slowing its spread.
    Bathtime with EiT ?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLau1ANQO2I
    I'm reliably informed that it's even 'better' in Thailand. But only informed!!
    The SeanT collective was more than informed about such things in Thailand.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Perhaps Greta could tell the kids that they are stealing their futures by going to the pubs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Have we heard from our resident doomsday prepper recently?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    My word, posting left wing betting twitters hate now 🙈🙈🙈
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Conferences, the perfect disease spreading vector...

    https://twitter.com/RufusPeabody/status/1240709290987360256?s=20
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Is there a link showing which parts of England outside of London, are deadly hot spots?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037

    Have we heard from our resident doomsday prepper recently?

    No wifi connection under his lead shield?
  • Scott_xP said:

    CatMan said:

    Trump is really losing it

    "Trump sows confusion with claim coronavirus drug will be ready soon"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/19/coronavirus-drug-trump-confusion-malaria-treatment-readiness

    "Donald Trump has sown fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials."

    BoZo not much better

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1240698794741649408
    But what does "turn the tide" mean?
    Peak of active cases ?
    Daily peak of new cases?
    Daily peak of deaths?
    Something else?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited March 2020
    RobD said:

    The UK, with 144 deaths and 3269 confirmed cases, is today almost exactly where Italy was two weeks ago on 5th March (148 deaths and 3296 confirmed cases).

    Have we already done enough to prevent us tracking Italy for the next two weeks? I am not sure that we have, sadly.

    Except we have the advantage that we live two weeks in the future.
    Yes of course that is a tremendous advantage... but only if we use it wisely. I'm not convinced there is any evidence yet that we will.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,878

    Conferences, the perfect disease spreading vector...

    https://twitter.com/RufusPeabody/status/1240709290987360256?s=20

    what the hell was he doing going to a conference
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:
    My word, posting left wing betting twitters hate now 🙈🙈🙈
    Macron and Merkel have given far fewer press conferences / addresses than Boris, but the media demanded he stopped hiding and give a daily one. So he does, even though clearly today there wasn't really anything ready to announce and the journalists start asking about if they can go on their summer holidays.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    dr_spyn said:

    Is there a link showing which parts of England outside of London, are deadly hot spots?

    The arcgis infection map is basically a population density map right now.
This discussion has been closed.