politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a London lockdown then YouGov finds it would have public backing
64% of Britons, including 57% of Londoners, say they would support putting London under lockdown #COVID19 https://t.co/gOkfN6aPSn pic.twitter.com/ckxSzAQVn0
Over the years, many have opined that London makes so much money it should be a separate state so it can shake off the parasitic regions that form the UK.
The thought experiment looks like it is becoming reality....
I feel like repeating my comment from the last thread....
For now, I get the impression the government is attempting to triangulate between the reality before and after the pandemic hit. I’m not convinced that’s an appropriate way to address a crisis.
And Johnson’s attempt to sound optimistic/reassuring/determined didn’t really work.
Over the years, many have opined that London makes so much money it should be a separate state so it can shake off the parasitic regions that form the UK.
The thought experiment looks like it is becoming reality....
Lexit!
Haha, so they did! The provincial tortoises look like they won in the end
During the Great Plague of the 17th century of course many wealthier Londoners fled the city for the countryside, whether some follow suit today before a London lockdown remains to be seen
FPT (but lost trace of who made the comments below; mine is 3rd.)
He is listening to the scientists which I give him credit for. And he has avoided some knee-jerk decisions which I also give him credit for. And he's doing a much, much better job than Donald Trump.
**
Trump is in a class of his own. The pandemic will try the best statesmen and women.
**
Presumably the only things in the USA's favour are
low population density lack of public transport.
Do their hospitals still charge $2,000 for a test? Shameful.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
The number of new cases in Italy is appalling. We really should be seeing the benefit of their lockdown starting to factor in by now.
If is does not come down massively in a week then there is a real problem, it surely must do because how can the virus infect people if there is no social interaction
There are probably still social interactions. Going to the shops, for one.
There's people who were infected before the lock down still getting tested positive. There's members of the same household getting infected. There's loads of people still going to work. There's people getting infected in hospitals, care homes etc
All those matter. And (1) is probably still the biggest factor right now.
But it's not about getting to zero, it's about getting an R0 that is nearer 0.2 than 3. And as the number of social interactions in Italy is probably down 90+%, and as people are a lot more cautious, and are using soap, etc.m we can be reasonably confident that it will come down fairly quickly.
Now, everyone is fixating on the total Italian number, but it's worth looking at the numbers for the Veneto area, which was one of the first two hotspots.
The number of new cases jumped above 200 for the first time on 12/3. It has been above there every day since, peaking at 510. It's now 270. Now it's too early to celebrate yet. But it's possible that we'll see the first number under 200 tomorrow. That would be a more than halving from the peak.
And where Veneto goes, the rest of Italy will follow (with a lag).
The government are going to have take some sort of action on supermarket demand, I think, while their supplies are still coming in so relatively normally for the moment. It might be that they make the amounts per customer mandatory, rather than the supermarkets.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
I cannot understand why Johnson isn't acting on this aspect.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
Ones empty, ones closed. Believe me, I've done some miles today.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try the corner shops - I just walked past ours and its fully stocked, loo paper and all.
The government are going to have take some sort of action on supermarket demand, I think, when the supplies are still coming in so relatively normally for the moment. It might be that they make the amounts per customer mandatory, rather than the supermarkets.
It would be very foolish of the government to introdue a measure that they couldn't enforce. That leads to a failure on many many levels.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
Ones empty, ones closed. Believe me, I've done some miles today.
Some areas of the country seem much worse affected by this, like the North and Inner London.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
I cannot understand why Johnson isn't acting on this aspect.
I used to take the piss out of my father for hoarding like a doomsday prepper, he's had the last laugh, and I'm glad.
Apologies if this has already been posted, but I thought this article from the Economist was a superb explanation of the structure and effect of the virus, and the possible ways drugs can help treat it:
The government are going to have take some sort of action on supermarket demand, I think, when the supplies are still coming in so relatively normally for the moment. It might be that they make the amounts per customer mandatory, rather than the supermarkets.
It would be very foolish of the government to introdue a measure that they couldn't enforce. That leads to a failure on many many levels.
Unenforceable or half-enforceable, they may have no choice but to try. People in a number of areas rely on supermarkets and have limited access to other shops, and these are disproportionately the low-paid. These areas, like Inner London and ex-industrial northern areas, seem to be being hit particularly hard by the supermarket issues.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
I cannot understand why Johnson isn't acting on this aspect.
I used to take the piss out of my father for hoarding like a doomsday prepper, he's had the last laugh, and I'm glad.
And to make you feel a bit better about Yo Sushi....
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
Ones empty, ones closed. Believe me, I've done some miles today.
Forgive the prying, but I'd be interested to know if small town/large town/city?
I live in the big Dorset conurbation, and around here every shop is open with no real shortages except cleaning products. The corner shops are rammed with stuff.
The government are going to have take some sort of action on supermarket demand, I think, when the supplies are still coming in so relatively normally for the moment. It might be that they make the amounts per customer mandatory, rather than the supermarkets.
It would be very foolish of the government to introdue a measure that they couldn't enforce. That leads to a failure on many many levels.
Unenforceable or half-enforceable, they may have no choice but to try. People in a number of areas rely on supermarkets and have limited access to other shops, and these are disproportionately the low-paid.
Yes. People honestly could starve if something isn’t done.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
I cannot understand why Johnson isn't acting on this aspect.
I used to take the piss out of my father for hoarding like a doomsday prepper, he's had the last laugh, and I'm glad.
And to make you feel a bit better about Yo Sushi....
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
Ones empty, ones closed. Believe me, I've done some miles today.
Forgive the prying, but I'd be interested to know if small town/large town/city?
I live in the big Dorset conurbation, and around here every shop is open with no real shortages except cleaning products. The corner shops are rammed with stuff.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try the corner shops - I just walked past ours and its fully stocked, loo paper and all.
Please can you post the address of the corner shop.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
Ones empty, ones closed. Believe me, I've done some miles today.
Forgive the prying, but I'd be interested to know if small town/large town/city?
I live in the big Dorset conurbation, and around here every shop is open with no real shortages except cleaning products. The corner shops are rammed with stuff.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
I cannot understand why Johnson isn't acting on this aspect.
I used to take the piss out of my father for hoarding like a doomsday prepper, he's had the last laugh, and I'm glad.
And to make you feel a bit better about Yo Sushi....
Separately (and probably bigger news for the long-term survival of humanity) is this paper on the discovery of a new antibiotic that has been very effective against MRSA in mice:
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
Ones empty, ones closed. Believe me, I've done some miles today.
Forgive the prying, but I'd be interested to know if small town/large town/city?
I live in the big Dorset conurbation, and around here every shop is open with no real shortages except cleaning products. The corner shops are rammed with stuff.
Dorset has a conurbation?
Bournemouth-Poole-Christchurch.
Because it doesn't have a big city in the middle and votes Conservative its not thought of as a conurbation.
Can I suggest the government does something about junk mail.
Reducing it would lower the risk of people getting infected from picking it up along the postal chain plus would take pressure of the mail services thus improving the chances of more important things arriving on time.
During the Great Plague of the 17th century of course many wealthier Londoners fled the city for the countryside, whether some follow suit today before a London lockdown remains to be seen
I'm staying. I go down with the ship. I was not born here but London has made me the man I am today. If I am to exit the stage before my time - if I will never again queue for a crepe at the Hampstead crepe van - well so be it. My ashes will grace the Heath.
I think the daily news conferences are very good, the experts are very good, and Boris is getting better, yes he waffles, but he does defer to the experts, the Chancellor is the star so far and defo future PM material.
During the Great Plague of the 17th century of course many wealthier Londoners fled the city for the countryside, whether some follow suit today before a London lockdown remains to be seen
I'm staying. I go down with the ship. I was not born here but London has made me the man I am today. If I am to exit the stage before my time - if I will never again queue for a crepe at the Hampstead crepe van - well so be it. My ashes will grace the Heath.
During the Great Plague of the 17th century of course many wealthier Londoners fled the city for the countryside, whether some follow suit today before a London lockdown remains to be seen
I'm staying. I go down with the ship. I was not born here but London has made me the man I am today. If I am to exit the stage before my time - if I will never again queue for a crepe at the Hampstead crepe van - well so be it. My ashes will grace the Heath.
Me too. Londoner by inclination, not by birth. 'If I should die, think only this of me. There's some corner of a far-off town/ That is forever London'
Can I suggest the government does something about junk mail.
Reducing it would lower the risk of people getting infected from picking it up along the postal chain plus would take pressure of the mail services thus improving the chances of more important things arriving on time.
Why not make the policy permanent, to include the reams of land filling propaganda that arrives on my doormat at election time?
The risk of moronic anti London commentary is high!
Give it a rest, lad.
If you stop the pig-ignorant anti London stuff, I’ll stop needing to make these warnings.
I don't need yer warnings, yer self righteous, shandy drinking, orange juice fer breakfast, sushi munching Southern softie. If you can't take a bit of ribbing about the place you choose to live, you'll be a long time miserable
Separately (and probably bigger news for the long-term survival of humanity) is this paper on the discovery of a new antibiotic that has been very effective against MRSA in mice:
I seriously question the practicality and wisdom of a London "lockdown". It seems a huge waste of resource which could be used elsewhere.
My experience is many people are still out and about - construction sites are still going, my local Wetherspoons had all its locals in their usual places and the food shops were rammed so little evidence of self distancing or self isolation.
The risk of moronic anti London commentary is high!
Give it a rest, lad.
If you stop the pig-ignorant anti London stuff, I’ll stop needing to make these warnings.
I don't need yer warnings, yer self righteous, shandy drinking, orange juice fer breakfast, sushi munching Southern softie. If you can't take a bit of ribbing about the place you choose to live, you'll be a long time miserable
I seriously question the practicality and wisdom of a London "lockdown". It seems a huge waste of resource which could be used elsewhere.
My experience is many people are still out and about - construction sites are still going, my local Wetherspoons had all its locals in their usual places and the food shops were rammed so little evidence of self distancing or self isolation.
In any case, I've nowhere else to go.
If people carry on like that, then there will be a lockdown on Spanish levels.
During the Great Plague of the 17th century of course many wealthier Londoners fled the city for the countryside, whether some follow suit today before a London lockdown remains to be seen
I'm staying. I go down with the ship. I was not born here but London has made me the man I am today. If I am to exit the stage before my time - if I will never again queue for a crepe at the Hampstead crepe van - well so be it. My ashes will grace the Heath.
Me too. Londoner by inclination, not by birth. 'If I should die, think only this of me. There's some corner of a far-off town/ That is forever London'
Wouldn't that be more appropriate for a Londoner who had died elsewhere ?
Can I suggest the government does something about junk mail.
Reducing it would lower the risk of people getting infected from picking it up along the postal chain plus would take pressure of the mail services thus improving the chances of more important things arriving on time.
Why not make the policy permanent, to include the reams of land filling propaganda that arrives on my doormat at election time?
And the unwanted phone calls. Charge them £1 a call, if the firms dont pay, pass it on to the networks, they will find a way to stop them very quickly!
I've got a 9 roll pack of luxury bog roll. I'll swap it for 7 sachets of dried fast yeast.
Find a local baker and beg a dollop of sourdough culture off them.
We do sourdough, a local micro brewery flogs the yeast off initsshop now and again. I've kept it alive for nearly a year. I've had shorter living pets!
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
I cannot understand why Johnson isn't acting on this aspect.
I used to take the piss out of my father for hoarding like a doomsday prepper, he's had the last laugh, and I'm glad.
And to make you feel a bit better about Yo Sushi....
The risk of moronic anti London commentary is high!
Give it a rest, lad.
If you stop the pig-ignorant anti London stuff, I’ll stop needing to make these warnings.
I don't need yer warnings, yer self righteous, shandy drinking, orange juice fer breakfast, sushi munching Southern softie. If you can't take a bit of ribbing about the place you choose to live, you'll be a long time miserable
All of that stuff is fine.
It’s the moronic hating that does you down.
And sushi is lovely. Try it.
I'm not sure I've have ever really dropped a mega hate bomb on the Smoke. You might prove me wrong.
Cheltenham is the dog that has not yet barked in the nighttime. Controversially, the Cheltenham Festival (horseracing) went ahead last week, with four days of 70,000-strong crowds from Britain and Ireland.
It will be interesting to see how many cases there will be over the next week or two affecting racegoers.
Can I suggest the government does something about junk mail.
Reducing it would lower the risk of people getting infected from picking it up along the postal chain plus would take pressure of the mail services thus improving the chances of more important things arriving on time.
Can I suggest the government does something about junk mail.
Reducing it would lower the risk of people getting infected from picking it up along the postal chain plus would take pressure of the mail services thus improving the chances of more important things arriving on time.
Why not make the policy permanent, to include the reams of land filling propaganda that arrives on my doormat at election time?
And the unwanted phone calls. Charge them £1 a call, if the firms dont pay, pass it on to the networks, they will find a way to stop them very quickly!
I seriously question the practicality and wisdom of a London "lockdown". It seems a huge waste of resource which could be used elsewhere.
My experience is many people are still out and about - construction sites are still going, my local Wetherspoons had all its locals in their usual places and the food shops were rammed so little evidence of self distancing or self isolation.
In any case, I've nowhere else to go.
If people carry on like that, then there will be a lockdown on Spanish levels.
I've got a 9 roll pack of luxury bog roll. I'll swap it for 7 sachets of dried fast yeast.
Find a local baker and beg a dollop of sourdough culture off them.
We do sourdough, a local micro brewery flogs the yeast off initsshop now and again. I've kept it alive for nearly a year. I've had shorter living pets!
I think mine is 7 or 8 by now, once you have got them going they seem pretty immortal.
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
I cannot understand why Johnson isn't acting on this aspect.
I used to take the piss out of my father for hoarding like a doomsday prepper, he's had the last laugh, and I'm glad.
And to make you feel a bit better about Yo Sushi....
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
I cannot understand why Johnson isn't acting on this aspect.
I used to take the piss out of my father for hoarding like a doomsday prepper, he's had the last laugh, and I'm glad.
And to make you feel a bit better about Yo Sushi....
I'm fucking fizzing. Been trying to do a shop for my 82 year old mum, who we've virtually welded into her flat. The shops are empty. Genuinely fuck all of any worth on the shelves. Even stuff like ketchup gone. The poor shop staff looked haunted. This is going to end up with some poor bastard getting killed. It's making me swear
Try your corner or smaller shops
I cannot understand why Johnson isn't acting on this aspect.
I used to take the piss out of my father for hoarding like a doomsday prepper, he's had the last laugh, and I'm glad.
And to make you feel a bit better about Yo Sushi....
Comments
The thought experiment looks like it is becoming reality....
Lexit!
For now, I get the impression the government is attempting to triangulate between the reality before and after the pandemic hit. I’m not convinced that’s an appropriate way to address a crisis.
And Johnson’s attempt to sound optimistic/reassuring/determined didn’t really work.
"99 per cent of coronavirus deaths in Italy are patients with existing medical problems, a study by the country's health service has found.
Research into 355 deaths found that only three of the victims, 0.8 per cent, had been clear of illnesses before they were infected.
Nearly half of them - 48.5 per cent - already had three or even more health conditions before they were diagnosed with Covid-19.
Another 25.6 per cent had two other 'pathologies', while 25.1 per cent had one."
(Mail)
He is listening to the scientists which I give him credit for. And he has avoided some knee-jerk decisions which I also give him credit for. And he's doing a much, much better job than Donald Trump.
**
Trump is in a class of his own.
The pandemic will try the best statesmen and women.
**
Presumably the only things in the USA's favour are
low population density
lack of public transport.
Do their hospitals still charge $2,000 for a test? Shameful.
Presumably his theme tune will be 'The only way is up....'?
But it's not about getting to zero, it's about getting an R0 that is nearer 0.2 than 3. And as the number of social interactions in Italy is probably down 90+%, and as people are a lot more cautious, and are using soap, etc.m we can be reasonably confident that it will come down fairly quickly.
Now, everyone is fixating on the total Italian number, but it's worth looking at the numbers for the Veneto area, which was one of the first two hotspots.
The number of new cases jumped above 200 for the first time on 12/3. It has been above there every day since, peaking at 510. It's now 270. Now it's too early to celebrate yet. But it's possible that we'll see the first number under 200 tomorrow. That would be a more than halving from the peak.
And where Veneto goes, the rest of Italy will follow (with a lag).
Netflix will reduce the video quality on its service in Europe for the next 30 days, to reduce the strain on internet service providers.
Demand for streaming has increased because large parts of Europe are self-isolating at home due to the coronavirus outbreak,
The video-streaming provider said lowering the picture quality would reduce Netflix data consumption by 25%.
But it said viewers would still find the picture quality good.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51968302
This is taking me back to the 80s.
I guess a lockdown works both ways, so some Londoners will favour it in terms of keeping the bumpkins out.
Tonight I shall make a risotto primavera, which my son will not eat.
The risk of moronic anti London commentary is high!
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/12/understanding-sars-cov-2-and-the-drugs-that-might-lessen-its-power
(There's a paywall, but you can sign up for free for up to five articles a month).
'Sushi parasites' have increased 283-fold in past 40 years
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15048
I live in the big Dorset conurbation, and around here every shop is open with no real shortages except cleaning products. The corner shops are rammed with stuff.
Must have ramped up their local drivers.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1240707565941489664
When this over the first place I'm visiting a sushi place.
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30102-1
Because it doesn't have a big city in the middle and votes Conservative its not thought of as a conurbation.
Reducing it would lower the risk of people getting infected from picking it up along the postal chain plus would take pressure of the mail services thus improving the chances of more important things arriving on time.
@JM1
Maybe tomorrow.
Why is he not in the cabinet?
If you can't take a bit of ribbing about the place you choose to live, you'll be a long time miserable
Now that's something we haven't heard much of in recent years.
But in was killing 2000+ per year in the 2000s.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingmrsaenglandandwales/2012-08-22
I seriously question the practicality and wisdom of a London "lockdown". It seems a huge waste of resource which could be used elsewhere.
My experience is many people are still out and about - construction sites are still going, my local Wetherspoons had all its locals in their usual places and the food shops were rammed so little evidence of self distancing or self isolation.
In any case, I've nowhere else to go.
Best wishes for @Charles and a speedy recovery for his father.
It’s the moronic hating that does you down.
And sushi is lovely. Try it.
Did you know that fish have lice?
https://responsibleaquaculture.wordpress.com/2014/03/08/more-sea-lice-outbreaks-in-chilean-fish-farms/
It will be interesting to see how many cases there will be over the next week or two affecting racegoers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/a-coronavirus-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it
I love sushi, too.
Seriously thought all the best for your father.
Sorry to hear about your father, just read back on the thread. Hoping for a swift recovery.