Well, having got back from Cyprus last night (on my scheduled flight as it happens) I looked up the Government's new social distancing advice, and find that, despite being a fit, healthy 55 year old runner, I'm going to be in the high risk group due to my heart murmur and the fact that it entitles me to a free flu jab. Obviously how much I social distance myself at the moment is up to me (but I ought to it). But if and when quarantine comes in I'll be under house arrest. Problem is, I live alone. But I don't "live" at home, my life is lived outside, in the pub, at running club meetings, parkrun, the gym. I have relatively little entertainment at home, I only have Freeview, no Netflix subscription, although I might have a few books I havent read yet. I am a Civil Servant though and not worried about the financial side. I think I need to set myself a target of being ready for lockdown by the end of the month. Bummer.
You have every book in the world on Amazon/gutenberg. Netflix is 8.99 a month.
I know people who went to nightclubs last night... And they were really busy. This is what wishy-washy messaging gets you.
I am not surprised about that as Boris only gave the advice at 5.00pm last night
The process of changing habits will be very quick and a lot better than mandating them with police arresting people and even sending them to jail
It is a policy option but it is sensible to keep it in the locker and to be honest I have enough faith in the people to act responsibly without police dictat
There are things the government can do short of activating the police. Tightening up the language of the advice would be a start. It’s very vague today.
Most people are law abiding not advice abiding, you look for ways around advice you obey the law.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
except he causes the effing crisis first
No he did not. If you want to watch a self-isolated video on the global financial crisis with comments from the leading American players (including some rude words when Labour blocked the Barclays takeover of Lehmans), there is this:
VICE on HBO looks at factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and the efforts made by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner, and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to save the United States from an economic collapse. The feature-length documentary explores the challenges these men faced, as well as the consequences of their decisions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QozGSS7QY_U
You've been spinning that wank for a decade.
He was crap and made a crisis worse than it should have been. "No boom and bust", my arse.
Funny thing is, Ken Clarke said it first. But that has nothing to do with the global financial crisis. Tear up your CCHQ briefing notes for GE2010 and watch the documentary; it even has President Bush in it. Or read the Congressional Inquiry report. Or watch The Big Short. Or read any of the histories of the GFC.
Does experience really tell us much about what is effective and what isnt?
What has experience taught us about why it took off in Italy but not Greece? Why did it not spread from Wuhan into rest of China? Why Iran but not India?
It's complex and experience doesn't tell us as much as we like we've had quite a few places go through this now, we can at least see some of the common themes. To answer your specific questions: - Wiki says Greece only got their first case on February 26th, they haven't had much time to grow, whereas Italy got seeded direct from Wuhan way earlier, IIUC - It *did* spread from Wuhan into the rest of China, they squished it with a monster lockdown and a swift deployment of the SARS playbook for testing and quarantine - Don't know about India
The Government hopefully has a plan for the people who have had it, mildly, and come out of the other end.
Presumably, they will be highly valued as they can be directed to work on essential stuff (e.g. food deliveries to vulnerable) whilst others remain locked down.
But also, as this number grows there will be more people thinking, I have had this now, I want to get out and go back to the pub etc etc.
Apart from the cynics favouring the actuarial odds I'd say the favs are RochdalePioneers and GIN1138. Chapeau to rcs1000 and Philip_Thompson for amusing choices.
Yes rsc1000 is targetting his evil twin. @rcs1000 rsc1000
Well, having got back from Cyprus last night (on my scheduled flight as it happens) I looked up the Government's new social distancing advice, and find that, despite being a fit, healthy 55 year old runner, I'm going to be in the high risk group due to my heart murmur and the fact that it entitles me to a free flu jab. Obviously how much I social distance myself at the moment is up to me (but I ought to it). But if and when quarantine comes in I'll be under house arrest. Problem is, I live alone. But I don't "live" at home, my life is lived outside, in the pub, at running club meetings, parkrun, the gym. I have relatively little entertainment at home, I only have Freeview, no Netflix subscription, although I might have a few books I havent read yet. I am a Civil Servant though and not worried about the financial side. I think I need to set myself a target of being ready for lockdown by the end of the month. Bummer.
Order some books and an exercise bike. If you dont want to pay for it at the start of the lockdown start a free netflix month trial. Close it when its over, and do the same with a free amazon prime trial (also gets you free deliveries which may prove handy). By month three youll be bored of TV and so will everyone else, hopefully they let us back out into daylight and parks by then!
On the actual response, doesn't it seem way too mild? It would have been too little too late last week, but the government instead spent last week pursuing its various theories about why it might not want to do it yet. It's less than Japan did, but way later, and experience from other countries is that the later you leave it, the more you have to shut down.
It seems utterly insane.
If you don't fully understand a situation, the first thing you should do is to immediately attempt to avert the worst possibilities. We should have begun straight away with suppression, which we knew from the experience of South Korea and Japan could at least buy time. Instead we bet the house on a strategy of mitigation that we knew could become untenable if our assumptions were inaccurate, and would also make a subsequent suppression strategy much more difficult.
It's like flying a plane that develops engine trouble. Do you turn round and head for the nearest airport, knowing that you will massively inconvenience your passengers? Or do you press on, reasonably confident that even if that engine fails, you can still make it on one? And what do you do when the other engine fails, because you didn't understand that the problem was one that affected both engines, and you are now too far from safety?
It is easy to tell that this is a real crisis, no one is moaning about the new Vanilla format
New format? It looks much the same from here. What has changed?
The vanilla thing is weird - you guys moan about it a lot but I`ve never had a problem nor seen any differences? Is it to do with different browsers?
For some reason i'm unable to post from work now - when i enter my user iD and password it just ignores it. All normal from home, which is where I'll mostly be for a while!
The government needs to unveil the big bazooka today:
Unlimited 0% credit for all UK businesses for the next 60 days in return for real asset securitization.
Postponement of all business rates, rent, commercial loans, mortgages, council tax, and corporation tax for 90 days.
Quarantine measures training for supermarket home delivery crews and provision of hazmat suits for all major delivery companies and supermarkets.
Massive increase in delivery capacity for food and other essentials.
Mandatory wearing of masks for all people going outdoors, mandatory testing for all NHS, education staff and children...it.
Given the constraints on both mask supply and testing capacity, those last two things are unrealistic. As are hazmat suits for delivery drivers. Any testing should first be allocated to NHS employees.
Royal Mail has stopped giving their handhelds to customers to sign for their packages and now the customer gives their name and the postie does the signing
On the actual response, doesn't it seem way too mild? It would have been too little too late last week, but the government instead spent last week pursuing its various theories about why it might not want to do it yet. It's less than Japan did, but way later, and experience from other countries is that the later you leave it, the more you have to shut down.
It seems utterly insane.
If you don't fully understand a situation, the first thing you should do is to immediately attempt to avert the worst possibilities. We should have begun straight away with suppression, which we knew from the experience of South Korea and Japan could at least buy time. Instead we bet the house on a strategy of mitigation that we knew could become untenable if our assumptions were inaccurate, and would also make a subsequent suppression strategy much more difficult.
It's like flying a plane that develops engine trouble. Do you turn round and head for the nearest airport, knowing that you will massively inconvenience your passengers? Or do you press on, reasonably confident that even if that engine fails, you can still make it on one? And what do you do when the other engine fails, because you didn't understand that the problem was one that affected both engines, and you are now too far from safety?
And what do you do if the airport you took off from is on fire?
On the actual response, doesn't it seem way too mild? It would have been too little too late last week, but the government instead spent last week pursuing its various theories about why it might not want to do it yet. It's less than Japan did, but way later, and experience from other countries is that the later you leave it, the more you have to shut down.
It seems utterly insane.
If you don't fully understand a situation, the first thing you should do is to immediately attempt to avert the worst possibilities. We should have begun straight away with suppression, which we knew from the experience of South Korea and Japan could at least buy time. Instead we bet the house on a strategy of mitigation that we knew could become untenable if our assumptions were inaccurate, and would also make a subsequent suppression strategy much more difficult.
It's like flying a plane that develops engine trouble. Do you turn round and head for the nearest airport, knowing that you will massively inconvenience your passengers? Or do you press on, reasonably confident that even if that engine fails, you can still make it on one? And what do you do when the other engine fails, because you didn't understand that the problem was one that affected both engines, and you are now too far from safety?
And what do you do if the airport you took off from is on fire?
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).
It is perfectly clear they are trying to have as much of the impact the lockdown will have in Italy, Spain and France without the damage enforcement of the lockdown will have (whilst reserving the option to go lockdown later on).
Excellent policy imo rather than weird.
Makes government look unnecessarily shifty and when you look for the details there aren’t any. Net result my wife, who has MS (on the protected list), is now ummiing and arring about work today. Unnecessary stress if the government had got off the fence.
The advice is clear, she should not be going to work.
But can if she wants. Right?
Armed police are not going to stop her as they might in France, no. I hope her employer would if they know the situation.
I am sure these discussions are playing out all around the country. The point is that the advice is unhelpfully muddy and open to personal interpretation.
Wishy washy leadership ( ie none ) too scared of making themselves unpopular , just looking to next election. Time for a real leader who is not out for themselves.
Morning Malc
You do know Nicola is part of Cobra and is involved in the decision making and endorses the governments position based on the scientific advise
You have a beef with most everyone but in the end we all need to give the politicians and advisors the space to deal with this
No one and no country has a single solution to this crisis
G, you seem to be under some delusion that I am a disciple of the SNP and think they are great, as I have stressed many times I am interested in independence from the rotten union. Sturgeon is just as crap as the rest of them and fact that another donkey is in their stupidly named meeting inspires no confidence whatsoever. From what we have seen the politicians are crap and their experts are dummies. I will remain sceptical thank you and will not have blind trust in people like Johnson whose track record is appalling.
Funny thing is, Ken Clarke said it first. But that has nothing to do with the global financial crisis. Tear up your CCHQ briefing notes for GE2010 and watch the documentary; it even has President Bush in it. Or read the Congressional Inquiry report. Or watch The Big Short. Or read any of the histories of the GFC.
The Big Short is THE best insight into the GFC.
I take nobody seriously on the subject who has not read it.
On the actual response, doesn't it seem way too mild? It would have been too little too late last week, but the government instead spent last week pursuing its various theories about why it might not want to do it yet. It's less than Japan did, but way later, and experience from other countries is that the later you leave it, the more you have to shut down.
It seems utterly insane.
If you don't fully understand a situation, the first thing you should do is to immediately attempt to avert the worst possibilities. We should have begun straight away with suppression, which we knew from the experience of South Korea and Japan could at least buy time. Instead we bet the house on a strategy of mitigation that we knew could become untenable if our assumptions were inaccurate, and would also make a subsequent suppression strategy much more difficult.
It's like flying a plane that develops engine trouble. Do you turn round and head for the nearest airport, knowing that you will massively inconvenience your passengers? Or do you press on, reasonably confident that even if that engine fails, you can still make it on one? And what do you do when the other engine fails, because you didn't understand that the problem was one that affected both engines, and you are now too far from safety?
And what do you do if the airport you took off from is on fire?
Eh?
Represents that there is more than one problem and we can’t go back.
The government needs to unveil the big bazooka today:
Unlimited 0% credit for all UK businesses for the next 60 days in return for real asset securitization.
Postponement of all business rates, rent, commercial loans, mortgages, council tax, and corporation tax for 90 days.
Quarantine measures training for supermarket home delivery crews and provision of hazmat suits for all major delivery companies and supermarkets.
Massive increase in delivery capacity for food and other essentials.
Mandatory wearing of masks for all people going outdoors, mandatory testing for all NHS, education staff and children...it.
Given the constraints on both mask supply and testing capacity, those last two things are unrealistic. As are hazmat suits for delivery drivers. Any testing should first be allocated to NHS employees.
Royal Mail has stopped giving their handhelds to customers to sign for their packages and now the customer gives their name and the postie does the signing
Going to give rise to some interesting issues with court writs.
The Obama administration attempt to brief the incoming Trump team on pandemic response... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797 ....POLITICO obtained documents from the meeting and spoke with more than a dozen attendees to help provide the most detailed reconstruction of the closed-door session yet. It was perhaps the most concrete and visible transition exercise that dealt with the possibility of pandemics, and top officials from both sides — whether they wanted to be there or not — were forced to confront a whole-of-government response to a crisis. The Trump team was told it could face specific challenges, such as shortages of ventilators, anti-viral drugs and other medical essentials, and that having a coordinated, unified national response was “paramount” — warnings that seem eerily prescient given the ongoing coronavirus crisis....
Well, having got back from Cyprus last night (on my scheduled flight as it happens) I looked up the Government's new social distancing advice, and find that, despite being a fit, healthy 55 year old runner, I'm going to be in the high risk group due to my heart murmur and the fact that it entitles me to a free flu jab. Obviously how much I social distance myself at the moment is up to me (but I ought to it). But if and when quarantine comes in I'll be under house arrest. Problem is, I live alone. But I don't "live" at home, my life is lived outside, in the pub, at running club meetings, parkrun, the gym. I have relatively little entertainment at home, I only have Freeview, no Netflix subscription, although I might have a few books I havent read yet. I am a Civil Servant though and not worried about the financial side. I think I need to set myself a target of being ready for lockdown by the end of the month. Bummer.
Try Audiobooks with a good set of headphones, I live on a relatively deserted bit of coastline, I walk every day or run, and use audiobooks when I walk, I intend to continue whatever the advice, I rarely see anyone down on the mudflats.
Never mind the budget not lasting a week, yesterday's mealy-mouthed "advice" won't last 24 hours. They either shut pubs etc or they don't. Even Piers Morgan gets this. OK so the insurance companies won't be able to pay out - thats where the government comes in.
I understand the Tories political problem. Having criticised the bank bailouts and spending government money, having claimed were were on the verge of bankruptcy before they doubled the national debt there will be a whiff of bullshit when they print a gazillion pounds. But thats what political hubris does to you.
Print the bloody money. No business to go bankrupt, no jobs to be lost, no people to starve. This is war. All wages will be frozen - what you earned last week you will earn this week. That way we still have an economy and a society when we come out the other side.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
We’ll see. Unless it provides real, direct and substantial support today the second mistake is only going to get worse.
I am far more concerned about my daughter, all my children, than I am about me. They are the future. And their future will be damaged if the economy collapses.
The government needs to unveil the big bazooka today:
Unlimited 0% credit for all UK businesses for the next 60 days in return for real asset securitization.
Postponement of all business rates, rent, commercial loans, mortgages, council tax, and corporation tax for 90 days.
Quarantine measures training for supermarket home delivery crews and provision of hazmat suits for all major delivery companies and supermarkets.
Massive increase in delivery capacity for food and other essentials.
Mandatory wearing of masks for all people going outdoors, mandatory testing for all NHS, education staff and children...it.
Given the constraints on both mask supply and testing capacity, those last two things are unrealistic. As are hazmat suits for delivery drivers. Any testing should first be allocated to NHS employees.
Royal Mail has stopped giving their handhelds to customers to sign for their packages and now the customer gives their name and the postie does the signing
Id imagine this one small step stops more spreading than banning people from jogging or going to the park does.
Well, having got back from Cyprus last night (on my scheduled flight as it happens) I looked up the Government's new social distancing advice, and find that, despite being a fit, healthy 55 year old runner, I'm going to be in the high risk group due to my heart murmur and the fact that it entitles me to a free flu jab. Obviously how much I social distance myself at the moment is up to me (but I ought to it). But if and when quarantine comes in I'll be under house arrest. Problem is, I live alone. But I don't "live" at home, my life is lived outside, in the pub, at running club meetings, parkrun, the gym. I have relatively little entertainment at home, I only have Freeview, no Netflix subscription, although I might have a few books I havent read yet. I am a Civil Servant though and not worried about the financial side. I think I need to set myself a target of being ready for lockdown by the end of the month. Bummer.
You have every book in the world on Amazon/gutenberg. Netflix is 8.99 a month.
I will get an exercise bike and maybe some gym equipment. At the moment the advice is you can go out for exercise as long as you are not near other people. First thoughts are maybe online courses (I've been relearning Russian on Duolingo, I coukd do it more seriously), or do some DIY, I haven't decorated in years. I can see there being a demand for delivery of DIY supplies! It's still a huge change in my lifestyle. I probably won't go with Netflix as I don't want to be sucked into the world of passive gogglebox watching. Also I couldn't work from home at the moment, but my employer might be able to offer me a change of role and remote working kit.
Apart from the cynics favouring the actuarial odds I'd say the favs are RochdalePioneers and GIN1138. Chapeau to rcs1000 and Philip_Thompson for amusing choices.
I know people who went to nightclubs last night... And they were really busy. This is what wishy-washy messaging gets you.
Thats what stupid people who can't think for themselves gets you.
Yeah yeah, blame people for the Government’s incompetence.
So people have no responsibility to think about how to keep themselves and their loved ones safe.........
Well, its a view
Indeed. Besides last night is when the news broke, many people who went clubbing last night would not have been watching the press conference and would not have the news yet.
What would be worth mentioning more is how many people are still clubbing etc by this weekend.
Suppression means the use of extreme policies to attempt to eliminate the disease. Mitigation refers to the use of less extreme policies in an attempt keep infection below tolerable levels. In what way do either the IC or government definitions differ from these definitions?
On the actual response, doesn't it seem way too mild? It would have been too little too late last week, but the government instead spent last week pursuing its various theories about why it might not want to do it yet. It's less than Japan did, but way later, and experience from other countries is that the later you leave it, the more you have to shut down.
It seems utterly insane.
If you don't fully understand a situation, the first thing you should do is to immediately attempt to avert the worst possibilities. We should have begun straight away with suppression, which we knew from the experience of South Korea and Japan could at least buy time. Instead we bet the house on a strategy of mitigation that we knew could become untenable if our assumptions were inaccurate, and would also make a subsequent suppression strategy much more difficult.
It's like flying a plane that develops engine trouble. Do you turn round and head for the nearest airport, knowing that you will massively inconvenience your passengers? Or do you press on, reasonably confident that even if that engine fails, you can still make it on one? And what do you do when the other engine fails, because you didn't understand that the problem was one that affected both engines, and you are now too far from safety?
If one engine fails you can often rely upon the other to fly you directly to the site of the crash.
Apart from the cynics favouring the actuarial odds I'd say the favs are RochdalePioneers and GIN1138. Chapeau to rcs1000 and Philip_Thompson for amusing choices.
Here's my pick..............
Harvey Weinstein
Not been on site for a while. Couldnt login on my android.
Are there explanations for the deathpool selections? Is it a case of wanting them to die or just get the virus ?
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
Never mind the budget not lasting a week, yesterday's mealy-mouthed "advice" won't last 24 hours. They either shut pubs etc or they don't. Even Piers Morgan gets this. OK so the insurance companies won't be able to pay out - thats where the government comes in.
I understand the Tories political problem. Having criticised the bank bailouts and spending government money, having claimed were were on the verge of bankruptcy before they doubled the national debt there will be a whiff of bullshit when they print a gazillion pounds. But thats what political hubris does to you.
Print the bloody money. No business to go bankrupt, no jobs to be lost, no people to starve. This is war. All wages will be frozen - what you earned last week you will earn this week. That way we still have an economy and a society when we come out the other side.
We’ll see. Unless it provides real, direct and substantial support today the second mistake is only going to get worse.
I am far more concerned about my daughter, all my children, than I am about me. They are the future. And their future will be damaged if the economy collapses.
I think you are far from alone in feeling that way.
Our car needs an MOT. Do I get it done or drive without one? Need car to complete food/medical journeys.
There was a story a couple of weeks ago about suspending the need for MOT. But drive anyway.
Is your insurace not at risk of being invalidated if you drive without an MOT?
Something for the Govt. to clarify pronto.
I article I remember said that insurance companies were being asked to waive the condition. But I don't remember when, where, or if it was even this country...
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And was right a week or two back.
Why? Numbers are still low and the NHS is still below its capacity for this and premature shutdowns when implemented badly have made the crisis worse not better as people panic and spread the virus further - see Italy.
More important than the timing is doing it right. Better to take a bit longer planning and getting the message out smoothly rather than panic and causing a catastrophe.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And was right a week or two back.
Why? Numbers are still low and the NHS is still below its capacity for this and premature shutdowns when implemented badly have made the crisis worse not better as people panic and spread the virus further - see Italy.
More important than the timing is doing it right. Better to take a bit longer planning and getting the message out smoothly rather than panic and causing a catastrophe.
When do they intend to start getting things out smoothly?
Our car needs an MOT. Do I get it done or drive without one? Need car to complete food/medical journeys.
There was a story a couple of weeks ago about suspending the need for MOT. But drive anyway.
Is your insurace not at risk of being invalidated if you drive without an MOT?
Something for the Govt. to clarify pronto.
I article I remember said that insurance companies were being asked to waive the condition. But I don't remember when, where, or if it was even this country...
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
That's a bit pricey considering it's an Alpine not a Rapier and it's not original paint.
You should 100% buy it though.
Mine was a Rapier. I'd love to, but don't have the wherewithal to garage it or look after it now.
I took mine to the beaches of the Med, and the west coast of Ireland. Attracted interest wherever it went, even in the 90s. It broke down several times but always near Luton on the M1.
ROME - "The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion". The Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence Sergio Romagnani writes this at the top of the Tuscany Region, in anticipation of a strong increase in cases also in the Region, on the basis of the study on the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo where the 3000 inhabitants of the country are been subjected to swab. The immunologist explains that the data provided by the study carried out on all the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo highlight two very important information: "the percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases above all, but not only that, among young people; and the isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease ". For Romagnani, what is now crucial in the battle against the virus is "trying to flush out asymptomatic people who are already infected because nobody fears or isolates them. This is particularly true for categories such as doctors and nurses who frequently develop an infection. asymptomatic by continuing to spread the infection between them and their patients. " And again: "It is being decided not to swab doctors and nurses again unless they develop symptoms. But in light of the results of Vo 'study, this decision can be extremely dangerous; hospitals risk becoming areas of high prevalence of infected in which no infected is isolated ". In Vo '- Romagnani points out - with the isolation of infected subjects, the total number of patients fell from 88 to 7 (at least 10 times less) within 7-10 days. The isolation of the infected (symptomatic or non-symptomatic) was not only able to protect other people from contagion, but also appeared to protect against the serious evolution of the disease in infected subjects because the cure rate in infected patients, if isolated, was in 60% of cases equal to only 8 days.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And was right a week or two back.
You’ll never convince Philip I’m afraid but I now do wonder if he ‘thought he could get away with it’ keeping the economy going whilst stopping the virus spread. Th IC report showed that it was not the best approach but he still is attempting to make it look like a natural progression.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
except he causes the effing crisis first
No he did not. If you want to watch a self-isolated video on the global financial crisis with comments from the leading American players (including some rude words when Labour blocked the Barclays takeover of Lehmans), there is this:
VICE on HBO looks at factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and the efforts made by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner, and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to save the United States from an economic collapse. The feature-length documentary explores the challenges these men faced, as well as the consequences of their decisions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QozGSS7QY_U
You've been spinning that wank for a decade.
He was crap and made a crisis worse than it should have been. "No boom and bust", my arse.
Funny thing is, Ken Clarke said it first. But that has nothing to do with the global financial crisis. Tear up your CCHQ briefing notes for GE2010 and watch the documentary; it even has President Bush in it. Or read the Congressional Inquiry report. Or watch The Big Short. Or read any of the histories of the GFC.
There were two fundamental issues:
1. Poor regulation which meant that the UK financial system was structurally weak 2. Fiscal policy - he believed his own bullshit. The issue wasn't the size of the deficit but the size of the *structural* deficit. He believed that the City revenues were permanent not a cyclical bubble and spent right up to the limit. When the revenues fell away it was very hard to reduce those spending levels
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And was right a week or two back.
You’ll never convince Philip I’m afraid but I now do wonder if he ‘thought he could get away with it’ keeping the economy going whilst stopping the virus spread. Th IC report showed that it was not the best approach but he still is attempting to make it look like a natural progression.
I don't think anyone thought that. They said all along there would be a progression, only an idiot would deny that . . . oh, I see. Sorry, its not your fault.
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
That's a bit pricey considering it's an Alpine not a Rapier and it's not original paint.
You should 100% buy it though.
Mine was a Rapier. I'd love to, but don't have the wherewithal to garage it or look after it now.
I took mine to the beaches of the Med, and the west coast of Ireland. Attracted interest wherever it went, even in the 90s. It broke down several times but always near Luton on the M1.
That's a cool first car. Mine was a 2CV Fourgonnette. I once drove it from university in Marseille to my parents' house in North Yorkshire for Christmas. I was on the road for so long it felt like the retreat of the Grande Armée from Moscow.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
I know people who went to nightclubs last night... And they were really busy. This is what wishy-washy messaging gets you.
Thats what stupid people who can't think for themselves gets you.
Yeah yeah, blame people for the Government’s incompetence.
Normally on the same page as you but not on this. You really should not need the government to tell you that was a bad idea. People really do need to take at least some responsibility for their own actions. Plain stupid.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
Exactly.
CSO "We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown soon, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The time has come, we need to lockdown now." Angry fools: "Ha ha ha look at that u-turn!"
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
That's a bit pricey considering it's an Alpine not a Rapier and it's not original paint.
You should 100% buy it though.
Mine was a Rapier. I'd love to, but don't have the wherewithal to garage it or look after it now.
I took mine to the beaches of the Med, and the west coast of Ireland. Attracted interest wherever it went, even in the 90s. It broke down several times but always near Luton on the M1.
That's a cool first car. Mine was a 2CV Fourgonnette. I once drove it from university in Marseille to my parents' house in North Yorkshire for Christmas. I was on the road for so long it felt like the retreat of the Grande Armée from Moscow.
Morris Marina 1.8 TC estate - laughingly marketed as the 'sporting' version. A pile of cr@p, and changing gear was a journey of exploration via the long handle gear-lever, but you could get it to four wheel drift (though you were more likely to end up going backwards at speed)...
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
That's a bit pricey considering it's an Alpine not a Rapier and it's not original paint.
You should 100% buy it though.
Mine was a Rapier. I'd love to, but don't have the wherewithal to garage it or look after it now.
I took mine to the beaches of the Med, and the west coast of Ireland. Attracted interest wherever it went, even in the 90s. It broke down several times but always near Luton on the M1.
That's a cool first car. Mine was a 2CV Fourgonnette. I once drove it from university in Marseille to my parents' house in North Yorkshire for Christmas. I was on the road for so long it felt like the retreat of the Grande Armée from Moscow.
Mine was a a blue Mini, one of the originals, although it did have a heater. We drove from Lancashire to Essex just after Christmas 1962 and got caught in the snow. The snowplough crew were behind us....... came down fast and heavily ......so they picked it up manually..... four of us, turned it around and we finished our journey on, sort of. cleared roads.
"Britain’s hospitality industry could effectively be destroyed without urgent state help to get through the coronavirus pandemic, it has been warned.
Pubs and restaurant owners are calling for immediate action to support the industry financially after Prime Minister Boris Johnson advised people not to go out but stopped short of ordering entertainment venues to close."
Comments
- Wiki says Greece only got their first case on February 26th, they haven't had much time to grow, whereas Italy got seeded direct from Wuhan way earlier, IIUC
- It *did* spread from Wuhan into the rest of China, they squished it with a monster lockdown and a swift deployment of the SARS playbook for testing and quarantine
- Don't know about India
Presumably, they will be highly valued as they can be directed to work on essential stuff (e.g. food deliveries to vulnerable) whilst others remain locked down.
But also, as this number grows there will be more people thinking, I have had this now, I want to get out and go back to the pub etc etc.
@rcs1000 rsc1000
'We don't want people to panic': Jokowi says on lack of transparency about COVID cases
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/13/we-dont-want-people-to-panic-jokowi-says-on-lack-of-transparency-about-covid-cases.html
https://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2020/03/quarantine-reading.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51918596
If you don't fully understand a situation, the first thing you should do is to immediately attempt to avert the worst possibilities. We should have begun straight away with suppression, which we knew from the experience of South Korea and Japan could at least buy time. Instead we bet the house on a strategy of mitigation that we knew could become untenable if our assumptions were inaccurate, and would also make a subsequent suppression strategy much more difficult.
It's like flying a plane that develops engine trouble. Do you turn round and head for the nearest airport, knowing that you will massively inconvenience your passengers? Or do you press on, reasonably confident that even if that engine fails, you can still make it on one? And what do you do when the other engine fails, because you didn't understand that the problem was one that affected both engines, and you are now too far from safety?
Enjoyed that header PT, thanks. Great poem.
Had a blast of optimism yesterday. That has dissipated somewhat.
It seems now to be only a matter of HOW catastrophic this will be.
My ample stock of quilted loo roll (even if scented) will be scant consolation.
https://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C1163318
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1239816173367119872
From what we have seen the politicians are crap and their experts are dummies. I will remain sceptical thank you and will not have blind trust in people like Johnson whose track record is appalling.
I take nobody seriously on the subject who has not read it.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797
....POLITICO obtained documents from the meeting and spoke with more than a dozen attendees to help provide the most detailed reconstruction of the closed-door session yet. It was perhaps the most concrete and visible transition exercise that dealt with the possibility of pandemics, and top officials from both sides — whether they wanted to be there or not — were forced to confront a whole-of-government response to a crisis. The Trump team was told it could face specific challenges, such as shortages of ventilators, anti-viral drugs and other medical essentials, and that having a coordinated, unified national response was “paramount” — warnings that seem eerily prescient given the ongoing coronavirus crisis....
I am far more concerned about my daughter, all my children, than I am about me. They are the future. And their future will be damaged if the economy collapses.
Harvey Weinstein
Well, its a view
What would be worth mentioning more is how many people are still clubbing etc by this weekend.
Are there explanations for the deathpool selections? Is it a case of wanting them to die or just get the virus ?
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1239781591439888384?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1239778023991279619?s=20
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075438/hopes-coronavirus-vaccine-rise-after-chinese-scientists-find
https://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C1172507
https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1239716557284167682
You should 100% buy it though.
https://twitter.com/JohnCendpts/status/1239615345469673473
More important than the timing is doing it right. Better to take a bit longer planning and getting the message out smoothly rather than panic and causing a catastrophe.
I took mine to the beaches of the Med, and the west coast of Ireland. Attracted interest wherever it went, even in the 90s. It broke down several times but always near Luton on the M1.
ROME - "The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion". The Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence Sergio Romagnani writes this at the top of the Tuscany Region, in anticipation of a strong increase in cases also in the Region, on the basis of the study on the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo where the 3000 inhabitants of the country are been subjected to swab.
The immunologist explains that the data provided by the study carried out on all the inhabitants of Vo 'Euganeo highlight two very important information: "the percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases above all, but not only that, among young people; and the isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease ".
For Romagnani, what is now crucial in the battle against the virus is "trying to flush out asymptomatic people who are already infected because nobody fears or isolates them. This is particularly true for categories such as doctors and nurses who frequently develop an infection. asymptomatic by continuing to spread the infection between them and their patients. " And again: "It is being decided not to swab doctors and nurses again unless they develop symptoms. But in light of the results of Vo 'study, this decision can be extremely dangerous; hospitals risk becoming areas of high prevalence of infected in which no infected is isolated ".
In Vo '- Romagnani points out - with the isolation of infected subjects, the total number of patients fell from 88 to 7 (at least 10 times less) within 7-10 days. The isolation of the infected (symptomatic or non-symptomatic) was not only able to protect other people from contagion, but also appeared to protect against the serious evolution of the disease in infected subjects because the cure rate in infected patients, if isolated, was in 60% of cases equal to only 8 days.
1. Poor regulation which meant that the UK financial system was structurally weak
2. Fiscal policy - he believed his own bullshit. The issue wasn't the size of the deficit but the size of the *structural* deficit. He believed that the City revenues were permanent not a cyclical bubble and spent right up to the limit. When the revenues fell away it was very hard to reduce those spending levels
CSO "We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right."
Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right."
Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown soon, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right."
Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The time has come, we need to lockdown now."
Angry fools: "Ha ha ha look at that u-turn!"
https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1239826035664879616?s=21
A pile of cr@p, and changing gear was a journey of exploration via the long handle gear-lever, but you could get it to four wheel drift (though you were more likely to end up going backwards at speed)...
Is 'Gentleman from Exeter' a euphemism or code for something?
https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1239849152416296960?s=21
Something like this will be needed IMO.
Pubs and restaurant owners are calling for immediate action to support the industry financially after Prime Minister Boris Johnson advised people not to go out but stopped short of ordering entertainment venues to close."