Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
Exactly.
CSO "We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown soon, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The time has come, we need to lockdown now." Angry fools: "Ha ha ha look at that u-turn!"
Bollocks. While we on here were discussing China, and then Italy... Boris was laughing about hand-shaking, suggesting that “one theory was to take the hit”, and putting it about that Britain, unlike those silly-billies South of Calais, would be “following the science”.
Now, according to Kuenssberg on R4 this morning, the “science has changed”. Like bollocks it has.
It is now clear that the govt should have started communicating a strategy for social isolation about a month ago, with compulsory quarantine for those returning from China, and Italy.
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
That's a bit pricey considering it's an Alpine not a Rapier and it's not original paint.
You should 100% buy it though.
Mine was a Rapier. I'd love to, but don't have the wherewithal to garage it or look after it now.
I took mine to the beaches of the Med, and the west coast of Ireland. Attracted interest wherever it went, even in the 90s. It broke down several times but always near Luton on the M1.
That's a cool first car. Mine was a 2CV Fourgonnette. I once drove it from university in Marseille to my parents' house in North Yorkshire for Christmas. I was on the road for so long it felt like the retreat of the Grande Armée from Moscow.
Morris Marina 1.8 TC estate - laughingly marketed as the 'sporting' version. A pile of cr@p, and changing gear was a journey of exploration via the long handle gear-lever, but you could get it to four wheel drift (though you were more likely to end up going backwards at speed)...
Austin A40. So much water poured through the windscreen that I had to take the plugs out of the floor. Had to start with a starting handle. Headlights eventually fell out due to rust but got them back with filler. 1965 car bought in 1974.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
Exactly.
CSO "We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown soon, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The time has come, we need to lockdown now." Angry fools: "Ha ha ha look at that u-turn!"
Bollocks. While we on here were discussing China, and then Italy... Boris was laughing about hand-shaking, suggesting that “one theory was to take the hit”, and putting it about that Britain, unlike those silly-billies South of Calais, would be “following the science”.
Now, according to Kuenssberg on R4 this morning, the “science has changed”. Like bollocks it has.
It is now clear that the govt should have started communicating a strategy for social isolation about a month ago, with compulsory quarantine for those returning from China, and Italy.
You're the one talking bollocks. Johnson said in that interview where the out of context "take the hit" remark was said that it was not right and not the plan. He was addressing people who were saying it, not saying it was our plan.
It was part of laying the groundwork so people understood why a lockdown would be necessary. I don't believe you are so stupid or ignorant to believe that Johnson was saying "take the hit" so I can only interpret that you're so partisan that you'd rather play politics with this.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
And yet the government allowed the impression to remain for several days that they were following a strategy of trying to reach herd immunity quicker, and that they were following very different strategy than our European neighbours. Which at the very least shows terrible communication.
FWIW, the policies announced yesterday by the UK government were portrayed by the news media here in Germany as a big change of direction, and an abandonment of the previous policy.
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
And yet the government allowed the impression to remain for several days that they were following a strategy of trying to reach herd immunity quicker, and that they were following very different strategy than our European neighbours. Which at the very least shows terrible communication.
FWIW, the policies announced yesterday by the UK government were portrayed by the news media here in Germany as a big change of direction, and an abandonment of the previous policy.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
A lot of anger from SMEs on the way the government’s announcement yesterday has hung them and their employees out to dry. If Johnson does not correct this - and fast - and not with some measly mouthed measures - he is going to lose a lot of those votes he will need later.
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
Exactly.
CSO "We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown soon, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The time has come, we need to lockdown now." Angry fools: "Ha ha ha look at that u-turn!"
1) It is now apparent from the IC report that it was a mistake not to lock down immediately. We should have locked down immediately; the so-called "angry fools" were correct. The data from Italy shows that mitigation was not the optimum strategy after all. While people do make mistakes, it is simply wrong for you to claim that all is going to plan.
2) We still haven't locked down. My lad is at school today.
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
MoT exempt and it's a slicktop AND a manual so it's a cast iron investment. I'd buy it myself but I've just bought another 944S2 motor and gearbox.
ooh look, I found my very first car on the same site. In the same colour, Sundance Yellow. I loved that car, kept it until it was 25 years old. A shame it was such a rust bucket.
Maybe if there's a way of doing it, we could maintain lists of books, films, TV series, pieces of music (or split classical/popular), boardgames, computer games, and anything else we can think of - and each PB'er is allowed to make one nomination to each category.
Then when we are at a loose end we can peruse the list of our choice to make a selection
Edit/Or do a different topic each day and then archive the list on its own thread. Or something
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Ameliorating the severe recession / depression will require very new policies.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
Exactly.
CSO "We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown soon, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The time has come, we need to lockdown now." Angry fools: "Ha ha ha look at that u-turn!"
1) It is now apparent from the IC report that it was a mistake not to lock down immediately. We should have locked down immediately; the so-called "angry fools" were correct. The data from Italy shows that mitigation was not the optimum strategy after all. While people do make mistakes, it is simply wrong for you to claim that all is going to plan.
2) We still haven't locked down. My lad is at school today.
School shut downs can make transmission worse not better.
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Ameliorating the severe recession / depression will require very new policies.
Agreed. We will see what the Chancellor says today. Another reason why rushing headlong into a shutdown without plans on how to ameliorate this is not smart, one assumes that the Treasury has been working out how to cope and that the Budget was the start not end of plans.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
And yet the government allowed the impression to remain for several days that they were following a strategy of trying to reach herd immunity quicker, and that they were following very different strategy than our European neighbours. Which at the very least shows terrible communication.
FWIW, the policies announced yesterday by the UK government were portrayed by the news media here in Germany as a big change of direction, and an abandonment of the previous policy.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
I'm only reporting what was seen internationally by media, health professionals, several governments, and WHO all who expressed concern. They can't all be reading HYUFD's posts on PB. And they don't particularly have an axe to grind. Maybe you are right and they are all idiots, but in that case the government still failed to take into account the obviously very high number of idiots everywhere in how they communicated.
I'm sorry but you are starting to sound exactly like HYUFD.
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Sure. But: 1. You're talking about an annual number. That means you need to see the private sector down almost 40% for the entire year. (And January and February already happened.) Given there will be a government response, that seems a lot. 2. There are any natural stabilisers in the economy, such as oil imports. I wouldn't be surprised to see gdp down double digits in q2. But remember that economic activity should increase as lockdowns are lifted.
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Sure. But: 1. You're talking about an annual number. That means you need to see the private sector down almost 40% for the entire year. (And January and February already happened.) Given there will be a government response, that seems a lot. 2. There are any natural stabilisers in the economy, such as oil imports. I wouldn't be surprised to see gdp down double digits in q2. But remember that economic activity should increase as lockdowns are lifted.
1/3rd of 60% is 20% and we aren't see a 1/3rd drop in many sectors at the minute, we are seeing a 100% shutdown.
Shutting down 100% of many industries is going to see a large knock on effect.
This could be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
EDIT: Having said that I'm not saying a 20% drop is what I'd expect this year, just I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. If I was to put my finger in the air and guess I'd say about a 10% drop is more likely.
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Sure. But: 1. You're talking about an annual number. That means you need to see the private sector down almost 40% for the entire year. (And January and February already happened.) Given there will be a government response, that seems a lot. 2. There are any natural stabilisers in the economy, such as oil imports. I wouldn't be surprised to see gdp down double digits in q2. But remember that economic activity should increase as lockdowns are lifted.
Yes. Q1 2020 is almost in the bag and all consensus is that Q2 will see a contraction. In betting terms on the US recession market the biggest risk is that Q3 sees an expansion as lockdowns are lifted and then Q4 the virus returns. To win the bet requires two consecutive quarters.
Well, having got back from Cyprus last night (on my scheduled flight as it happens) I looked up the Government's new social distancing advice, and find that, despite being a fit, healthy 55 year old runner, I'm going to be in the high risk group due to my heart murmur and the fact that it entitles me to a free flu jab. Obviously how much I social distance myself at the moment is up to me (but I ought to it). But if and when quarantine comes in I'll be under house arrest. Problem is, I live alone. But I don't "live" at home, my life is lived outside, in the pub, at running club meetings, parkrun, the gym. I have relatively little entertainment at home, I only have Freeview, no Netflix subscription, although I might have a few books I havent read yet. I am a Civil Servant though and not worried about the financial side. I think I need to set myself a target of being ready for lockdown by the end of the month. Bummer.
Try Audiobooks with a good set of headphones, I live on a relatively deserted bit of coastline, I walk every day or run, and use audiobooks when I walk, I intend to continue whatever the advice, I rarely see anyone down on the mudflats.
I moved out of a city to a very rural coastal village a few years ago. I now realise that this was an epically good move. I had no outside space at all in the city, I have a large garden here with several nearby beaches that few people use. Loads of places to run, you'd never see another soul.
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Sure. But: 1. You're talking about an annual number. That means you need to see the private sector down almost 40% for the entire year. (And January and February already happened.) Given there will be a government response, that seems a lot. 2. There are any natural stabilisers in the economy, such as oil imports. I wouldn't be surprised to see gdp down double digits in q2. But remember that economic activity should increase as lockdowns are lifted.
1/3rd of 60% is 20% and we aren't see a 1/3rd drop in many sectors at the minute, we are seeing a 100% shutdown.
Shutting down 100% of many industries is going to see a large knock on effect.
This could be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Do you want a small bet on 2020 UK GDP? I'll say down less than 15%, you say more.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
From Boris's Press Conference (see 35m20s onward) when we were told it was not desirable to stop people catching it
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
And yet the government allowed the impression to remain for several days that they were following a strategy of trying to reach herd immunity quicker, and that they were following very different strategy than our European neighbours. Which at the very least shows terrible communication.
FWIW, the policies announced yesterday by the UK government were portrayed by the news media here in Germany as a big change of direction, and an abandonment of the previous policy.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
I'm only reporting what was seen internationally by media, health professionals, several governments, and WHO all who expressed concern. They can't all be reading HYUFD's posts on PB. And they don't particularly have an axe to grind. Maybe you are right and they are all idiots, but in that case the government still failed to take into account the obviously very high number of idiots everywhere in how they communicated.
I'm sorry but you are starting to sound exactly like HYUFD.
Herd immunity for all but the elderly and vulnerable was also clearly the plan to avoid a peak in winter until the modelling showed pursuing it further from this week would lead to too many cases and deaths in the next few months so what I said was correct
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Sure. But: 1. You're talking about an annual number. That means you need to see the private sector down almost 40% for the entire year. (And January and February already happened.) Given there will be a government response, that seems a lot. 2. There are any natural stabilisers in the economy, such as oil imports. I wouldn't be surprised to see gdp down double digits in q2. But remember that economic activity should increase as lockdowns are lifted.
1/3rd of 60% is 20% and we aren't see a 1/3rd drop in many sectors at the minute, we are seeing a 100% shutdown.
Shutting down 100% of many industries is going to see a large knock on effect.
This could be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Do you want a small bet on 2020 UK GDP? I'll say down less than 15%, you say more.
15% would be pretty bad. That's Greece's combined total for the first three or four years of its financial crisis.
Miss Cyclefree, indeed. That's the key point. It should be addressed today.
Especially knotty are self-employed people whose job requires their on-site presence (plumbers, electricians, etc).
They will need to carry on working. The government needs to do something like what Norway has done - if they are ill pay them their income on the basis of their previous year’s accounts.
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Sure. But: 1. You're talking about an annual number. That means you need to see the private sector down almost 40% for the entire year. (And January and February already happened.) Given there will be a government response, that seems a lot. 2. There are any natural stabilisers in the economy, such as oil imports. I wouldn't be surprised to see gdp down double digits in q2. But remember that economic activity should increase as lockdowns are lifted.
1/3rd of 60% is 20% and we aren't see a 1/3rd drop in many sectors at the minute, we are seeing a 100% shutdown.
Shutting down 100% of many industries is going to see a large knock on effect.
This could be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Do you want a small bet on 2020 UK GDP? I'll say down less than 15%, you say more.
15% would be pretty bad. That's Greece's combined total for the first three years of its financial crisis.
And our government will be able up respond with increased spending, while Greece had to cut spending.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
From Boris's Press Conference (see 35m20s onward) when we were told it was not desirable to stop people catching it https://youtu.be/91jK9F_pTSU?t=2120
But nobody takes any notice of what Boris Johnson says, do they? He has lost all authority. Communications from the government should be made by trustworthy civil sevants.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
From Boris's Press Conference (see 35m20s onward) when we were told it was not desirable to stop people catching it
Watched from that time to when he hands over to the next speaker and he doesn't say herd immunity is a target. He says "its not possible to stop everyone from getting it" and its desirable to have "some immunity". "Some immunity" and "herd immunity" are two very different concepts.
He then goes on to explain why timing is critical and why they want to avoid closing schools for months and seeing children sent to grandparents who would be put at more risk.
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Sure. But: 1. You're talking about an annual number. That means you need to see the private sector down almost 40% for the entire year. (And January and February already happened.) Given there will be a government response, that seems a lot. 2. There are any natural stabilisers in the economy, such as oil imports. I wouldn't be surprised to see gdp down double digits in q2. But remember that economic activity should increase as lockdowns are lifted.
1/3rd of 60% is 20% and we aren't see a 1/3rd drop in many sectors at the minute, we are seeing a 100% shutdown.
Shutting down 100% of many industries is going to see a large knock on effect.
This could be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
EDIT: Having said that I'm not saying a 20% drop is what I'd expect this year, just I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. If I was to put my finger in the air and guess I'd say about a 10% drop is more likely.
I am hoping we don't see more dying through knock on effects than through the virus. I wouldn't bet against it.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
From Boris's Press Conference (see 35m20s onward) when we were told it was not desirable to stop people catching it
Watched from that time to when he hands over to the next speaker and he doesn't say herd immunity is a target. He says "its not possible to stop everyone from getting it" and its desirable to have "some immunity". He then goes on to explain why timing is critical and why they want to avoid closing schools for months and seeing children sent to grandparents who would be put at more risk.
He said stopping people catching it was not desirable.
Miss Cyclefree, indeed. That's the key point. It should be addressed today.
Especially knotty are self-employed people whose job requires their on-site presence (plumbers, electricians, etc).
They will need to carry on working. The government needs to do something like what Norway has done - if they are ill pay them their income on the basis of their previous year’s accounts.
Plumbers and electricians have to carry on working. Suppose someone is isolating and their toilet gets blocked or their electricity system blows a fuse or needs rewiring. How do you live with a blocked toilet, or with no heating or electricity so that you cannot place orders for food online?
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Sure. But: 1. You're talking about an annual number. That means you need to see the private sector down almost 40% for the entire year. (And January and February already happened.) Given there will be a government response, that seems a lot. 2. There are any natural stabilisers in the economy, such as oil imports. I wouldn't be surprised to see gdp down double digits in q2. But remember that economic activity should increase as lockdowns are lifted.
1/3rd of 60% is 20% and we aren't see a 1/3rd drop in many sectors at the minute, we are seeing a 100% shutdown.
Shutting down 100% of many industries is going to see a large knock on effect.
This could be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
EDIT: Having said that I'm not saying a 20% drop is what I'd expect this year, just I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. If I was to put my finger in the air and guess I'd say about a 10% drop is more likely.
I am hoping we don't see more dying through knock on effects than through the virus. I wouldn't bet against it.
I think we probably will.
I also think that's probably the right thing to do. Because we will get fewer people dying than if the virus wasn't tackled.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
From Boris's Press Conference (see 35m20s onward) when we were told it was not desirable to stop people catching it
Watched from that time to when he hands over to the next speaker and he doesn't say herd immunity is a target. He says "its not possible to stop everyone from getting it" and its desirable to have "some immunity". He then goes on to explain why timing is critical and why they want to avoid closing schools for months and seeing children sent to grandparents who would be put at more risk.
He said stopping people catching it was not desirable.
For now until the lockdown comes which he goes on to talk about, which is not the same as avoiding herd immunity. Having a few people get it - and get over it - before the lockdown comes gives a small amount of immunity to get us started with.
Wouldn't surprise me if ours is down by more than that this year.
Don't forget that more than 40% of UK gdp is government spending*, which will probably rise this year. That means that the private sector would need to see a close to 40% drop, which seems a bit high * Albeit some is transfer payments
Entire industries are shutting down. This isn't a recession it is quite literally a depression.
Sure. But: 1. You're talking about an annual number. That means you need to see the private sector down almost 40% for the entire year. (And January and February already happened.) Given there will be a government response, that seems a lot. 2. There are any natural stabilisers in the economy, such as oil imports. I wouldn't be surprised to see gdp down double digits in q2. But remember that economic activity should increase as lockdowns are lifted.
1/3rd of 60% is 20% and we aren't see a 1/3rd drop in many sectors at the minute, we are seeing a 100% shutdown.
Shutting down 100% of many industries is going to see a large knock on effect.
This could be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Do you want a small bet on 2020 UK GDP? I'll say down less than 15%, you say more.
I don't say more no, I'm saying if more happens it wouldn't surprise me. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
I'd guess about 10% fall but would be less surprised with 20% fall than any growth.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
And yet the government allowed the impression to remain for several days that they were following a strategy of trying to reach herd immunity quicker, and that they were following very different strategy than our European neighbours. Which at the very least shows terrible communication.
FWIW, the policies announced yesterday by the UK government were portrayed by the news media here in Germany as a big change of direction, and an abandonment of the previous policy.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
I think your memory's playing tricks on you, and you're being needlessly mean to HYUFD who was doing his best to run with the herd. I saw the tweet from the modeler who clarified that *his* intention wasn't to create herd immunity, because at that time - not so very long ago - everybody here seemed to be assuming it was. Go look at this comment and read the previous threads.
If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.
Are we clear thst creating herd immunity is actually the policy? It seems like one of the boffins mentioned it but the people involved in making the model seem saying this is just an inevitable outcome, rather than the goal. Then a bunch of people who *support* the government seem to be jumping on it because it gives them a way to claim the delay and confusion was part of a cunning and brilliant expert plan, rather than the British getting knocked on their arses like everybody else without recent SARS experience.
Yes it is the government position. It was first mentioned by a member of the behavioural insight team, but has since been confirmed by the two big egg-heads leading this. It definitely isn't just a Cummings lacky speaking out of turn.
UK's chief scientific adviser tells ITV News he hopes Government's approach to coronavirus will create 'herd immunity'
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
And yet the government allowed the impression to remain for several days that they were following a strategy of trying to reach herd immunity quicker, and that they were following very different strategy than our European neighbours. Which at the very least shows terrible communication.
FWIW, the policies announced yesterday by the UK government were portrayed by the news media here in Germany as a big change of direction, and an abandonment of the previous policy.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
I think your memory's playing tricks on you, and you're being needlessly mean to HYUFD who was doing his best to run with the herd. I saw the tweet from the modeler who clarified that *his* intention wasn't to create herd immunity, because at that time - not so very long ago - everybody here seemed to be assuming it was. Go look at this comment and read the previous threads.
If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.
Are we clear thst creating herd immunity is actually the policy? It seems like one of the boffins mentioned it but the people involved in making the model seem saying this is just an inevitable outcome, rather than the goal. Then a bunch of people who *support* the government seem to be jumping on it because it gives them a way to claim the delay and confusion was part of a cunning and brilliant expert plan, rather than the British getting knocked on their arses like everybody else without recent SARS experience.
Yes it is the government position. It was first mentioned by a member of the behavioural insight team, but has since been confirmed by the two big egg-heads leading this. It definitely isn't just a Cummings lacky speaking out of turn.
UK's chief scientific adviser tells ITV News he hopes Government's approach to coronavirus will create 'herd immunity'
On the video clip he doesn't say that's the approach. I'd like to see a longer clip. He says "if this happens then it creates herd immunity" not "we want this to happen".
On the video clip he doesn't say that's the approach. I'd like to see a longer clip. He says "if this happens then it creates herd immunity" not "we want this to happen".
That's not the only government communication though is it?
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
And yet the government allowed the impression to remain for several days that they were following a strategy of trying to reach herd immunity quicker, and that they were following very different strategy than our European neighbours. Which at the very least shows terrible communication.
FWIW, the policies announced yesterday by the UK government were portrayed by the news media here in Germany as a big change of direction, and an abandonment of the previous policy.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
I think your memory's playing tricks on you, and you're being needlessly mean to HYUFD who was doing his best to run with the herd. I saw the tweet from the modeler who clarified that *his* intention wasn't to create herd immunity, because at that time - not so very long ago - everybody here seemed to be assuming it was. Go look at this comment and read the previous threads.
If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.
Are we clear thst creating herd immunity is actually the policy? It seems like one of the boffins mentioned it but the people involved in making the model seem saying this is just an inevitable outcome, rather than the goal. Then a bunch of people who *support* the government seem to be jumping on it because it gives them a way to claim the delay and confusion was part of a cunning and brilliant expert plan, rather than the British getting knocked on their arses like everybody else without recent SARS experience.
Yes it is the government position. It was first mentioned by a member of the behavioural insight team, but has since been confirmed by the two big egg-heads leading this. It definitely isn't just a Cummings lacky speaking out of turn.
UK's chief scientific adviser tells ITV News he hopes Government's approach to coronavirus will create 'herd immunity'
And, pending a vaccine or mutation, it remains the only viable end state.
Arguably it was the medical guy who made the biggest slip, when he said that more infections were actually desirable. Technically, given where we are, and provided they see of younger people who will recover, he was correct. But we don’t need to, and never did need to, do anything to encourage them, since a rise in infection rate was always nailed on, regardless. I have been impressed with the scientific advisers, but the one risk is that they say things that are strictly correct without thinking about how they might come across.
"Britain’s budget watchdog isn’t simply giving the government the green light to rip up its borrowing rules. It’s actually urging them to."
Robert Chote says that Britain needs a "wartime mentality" to deal with coronavirus. He says during WW2 the govt ran deficits in excess of 20% for "five years on the trot and that was the right thing to do at that time."
This is no time to be squeamish about public debt, he insisted - indeed, a large, temporary increased in borrowing makes sense.
He reminded the Treasury committee that the UK budget deficit hit 20% of GDP in the second world war (it was just 1.9% last year).
Chote also singles out gig economy workers - saying its crucial to make up their earnings in some way."
Miss Cyclefree, indeed. That's the key point. It should be addressed today.
Especially knotty are self-employed people whose job requires their on-site presence (plumbers, electricians, etc).
Frankly it should have been addressed yesterday, as Macron did.
Today will show us if Boris and Sunak really understand the scale of what they are facing and are up to it. I fear not.
I've been pretty impressed with Macrons announced plans. As much time spent talking about how they intend to prevent economic collapse as they do talking about the health aspects. A whole raft of measures. No one will be allowed to go bankrupt, defers on lots of business taxes and even rents, emergency benefits that don't require companies to fire employees. Where the money will come from is of course the next question but this is probably one of the only times when it is better to overpromise (in terms of short term reassurement) .
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
Exactly.
CSO "We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown soon, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The time has come, we need to lockdown now." Angry fools: "Ha ha ha look at that u-turn!"
1) It is now apparent from the IC report that it was a mistake not to lock down immediately. We should have locked down immediately; the so-called "angry fools" were correct. The data from Italy shows that mitigation was not the optimum strategy after all. While people do make mistakes, it is simply wrong for you to claim that all is going to plan.
2) We still haven't locked down. My lad is at school today.
School shut downs can make transmission worse not better.
“follow the science” says shut schools to reduce transmission. But factor in where the kids go for child care, taking needed medical practitioners away from work, to the grand parents etc, it’s better to keep schools open?
Looks like the answer is you don't need schools functioning as schools? You need them as child care? Maybe summer club come early? Time to get out the box and creative?
Miss Cyclefree, indeed. That's the key point. It should be addressed today.
Especially knotty are self-employed people whose job requires their on-site presence (plumbers, electricians, etc).
Frankly it should have been addressed yesterday, as Macron did.
Today will show us if Boris and Sunak really understand the scale of what they are facing and are up to it. I fear not.
I've been pretty impressed with Macrons announced plans. As much time spent talking about how they intend to prevent economic collapse as they do talking about the health aspects. A whole raft of measures. No one will be allowed to go bankrupt, defers on lots of business taxes and even rents, emergency benefits that don't require companies to fire employees. Where the money will come from is of course the next question but this is probably one of the only times when it is better to overpromise (in terms of short term reassurement) .
"Britain’s budget watchdog isn’t simply giving the government the green light to rip up its borrowing rules. It’s actually urging them to."
Robert Chote says that Britain needs a "wartime mentality" to deal with coronavirus. He says during WW2 the govt ran deficits in excess of 20% for "five years on the trot and that was the right thing to do at that time."
This is no time to be squeamish about public debt, he insisted - indeed, a large, temporary increased in borrowing makes sense.
He reminded the Treasury committee that the UK budget deficit hit 20% of GDP in the second world war (it was just 1.9% last year).
Chote also singles out gig economy workers - saying its crucial to make up their earnings in some way."
probably needed.
The main issue for HMG is to put this directly into the pockets of consumers and businesses and avoid the banks entirely
Miss Cyclefree, indeed. That's the key point. It should be addressed today.
Especially knotty are self-employed people whose job requires their on-site presence (plumbers, electricians, etc).
Frankly it should have been addressed yesterday, as Macron did.
Today will show us if Boris and Sunak really understand the scale of what they are facing and are up to it. I fear not.
I've been pretty impressed with Macrons announced plans. As much time spent talking about how they intend to prevent economic collapse as they do talking about the health aspects. A whole raft of measures. No one will be allowed to go bankrupt, defers on lots of business taxes and even rents, emergency benefits that don't require companies to fire employees. Where the money will come from is of course the next question but this is probably one of the only times when it is better to overpromise (in terms of short term reassurement) .
at least we can print our own money.
The ECB has thrown caution to the wind, and is allowing pretty much all the EZ countries to print money too.
No they didn't. Nobody [besides people like HYUFD here who make up shit and spout it as an authority] ever said herd immunity was a target and the Health Secretary days ago explicitly said it was not the plan. Forget about that?
From Boris's Press Conference (see 35m20s onward) when we were told it was not desirable to stop people catching it
Watched from that time to when he hands over to the next speaker and he doesn't say herd immunity is a target. He says "its not possible to stop everyone from getting it" and its desirable to have "some immunity". He then goes on to explain why timing is critical and why they want to avoid closing schools for months and seeing children sent to grandparents who would be put at more risk.
He said stopping people catching it was not desirable.
Yes and he explains why. The fact that you are too thick to get it because your judgement is completely f****d by your political agenda is apparent.
And, pending a vaccine or mutation, it remains the only viable end state.
Nobody knows that and I think the evidence is against. If you can test and quarantine people fast enough, *or* sustain whatever turns out to be the most effective parts of social distancing to slow transmission, or more likely a combination of both, you have an a long-term solution that doesn't involve a vaccine, mutation or everyone getting it. These are things that several governments seem to be having success with different parts of despite having very little information about the threat. They should be able to make them less disruptive as they learn more.
... I have been impressed with the scientific advisers, but the one risk is that they say things that are strictly correct without thinking about how they might come across.
I have been arguing for quite some time that perception is often more important than facts for the majority of people. The propellor heads in here insist that I am mad or stupid.
"According to Benjamin Neuman, a virologist at Texas A&M University-Texarkana, immunizing against the pathogen is a long shot: There has never been a very successful human vaccine against any member of the coronavirus family."
We basically need less people spouting whatever the government is saying, and more independent thinking.
Look; I don’t want to question the govt. My natural inclination is indeed to follow the line and I’m not interested in political partisanship garbage like #boristhebutcher.
But the government has been caught out as sleeping, or complacent, or arrogant. Or all three.
I am not clamouring for “lockdowns” nor for school closures. If I am clamouring for anything, it is the economics. We need what @MaxPB posted upthread, but my fear is that the govt will attempt half measures.
Only be people who didn't understand what was happening. The British government was forecasting this shutdown all along when the time was right. Time is right now.
And this is the trick that vultures like Stewart and John Ashton can jump on. They call for something they know is going to happen soon (as the government have essentially said they’ll do it), and then when they try to time it based on the data, they cry “we told you so, we were right all along”.
Exactly.
CSO "We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The situation is escalating. We will need to lockdown soon, but its important we don't do it too early, its coming when the time is right." Angry fools: "Lockdown now! WTF don't you care?"
CSO "The time has come, we need to lockdown now." Angry fools: "Ha ha ha look at that u-turn!"
1) It is now apparent from the IC report that it was a mistake not to lock down immediately. We should have locked down immediately; the so-called "angry fools" were correct. The data from Italy shows that mitigation was not the optimum strategy after all. While people do make mistakes, it is simply wrong for you to claim that all is going to plan.
2) We still haven't locked down. My lad is at school today.
School shut downs can make transmission worse not better.
“follow the science” says shut schools to reduce transmission. But factor in where the kids go for child care, taking needed medical practitioners away from work, to the grand parents etc, it’s better to keep schools open?
Looks like the answer is you don't need schools functioning as schools? You need them as child care? Maybe summer club come early? Time to get out the box and creative?
Here schools and kindergartens are shut, but essential workers get childcare if needed. Of course it does mean that those children are probably going to mix with a new bunch of children, but that might be another reason to do it sooner rather than later.
One of the firms flat out making ventilators has organised child care at the factory EDIT, or rather I should say organised their own childcare for their workers - I doubt it's actually at the factory!
We basically need less people spouting whatever the government is saying, and more independent thinking.
Look; I don’t want to question the govt. My natural inclination is indeed to follow the line and I’m not interested in political partisanship garbage like #boristhebutcher.
But the government has been caught out as sleeping, or complacent, or arrogant. Or all three.
I am not clamouring for “lockdowns” nor for school closures. If I am clamouring for anything, it is the economics. We need what @MaxPB posted upthread, but my fear is that the govt will attempt half measures.
We basically need less people spouting whatever the government is saying, and more independent thinking.
and yet that wasn't your approach on Brexit. Why the change ?
Miss Cyclefree, indeed. That's the key point. It should be addressed today.
Especially knotty are self-employed people whose job requires their on-site presence (plumbers, electricians, etc).
Frankly it should have been addressed yesterday, as Macron did.
Today will show us if Boris and Sunak really understand the scale of what they are facing and are up to it. I fear not.
Translation - 'nothing the government do or don't do will satisfy me as I intend to snipe from the sidelines'
The failure of government to think through the economic consequences of its advice yesterday is very telling and betrays an essential incompetence in its decision-makers at the highest level.
It doesn't help that the Prime Minister in his wisdom decided to sack the man who was showing signs of independent thought and replace him with a pliant yes-man.
But the government has been caught out as sleeping, or complacent, or arrogant. Or all three.
And in its defence, it's not the only government that's been knocked on its arse. Governments aren't usually designed to move at speed and they don't usually take strong measures to deal with threats until the threats are actually real and present. This is usually a good thing.
Although governments are comprised of humans, who theoretically should be able to learn from other governments' failures, a government is not an intelligent agent. A government is an organism. And it seems like the only way a governmental organism can develop an immune system that will allow it to fight off a threat like this is if it's previously got sick.
We basically need less people spouting whatever the government is saying, and more independent thinking.
Look; I don’t want to question the govt. My natural inclination is indeed to follow the line and I’m not interested in political partisanship garbage like #boristhebutcher.
But the government has been caught out as sleeping, or complacent, or arrogant. Or all three.
I am not clamouring for “lockdowns” nor for school closures. If I am clamouring for anything, it is the economics. We need what @MaxPB posted upthread, but my fear is that the govt will attempt half measures.
We basically need less people spouting whatever the government is saying, and more independent thinking.
and yet that wasn't your approach on Brexit. Why the change ?
In both cases am simply looking at what facts are available. The problem with Brexit is that it is/was largely superstition.
The better analogy would be if I was on here arguing for increased homeopathy to combat coronavirus.
Comments
* Albeit some is transfer payments
While we on here were discussing China, and then Italy...
Boris was laughing about hand-shaking, suggesting that “one theory was to take the hit”, and putting it about that Britain, unlike those silly-billies South of Calais, would be “following the science”.
Now, according to Kuenssberg on R4 this morning, the “science has changed”. Like bollocks it has.
It is now clear that the govt should have started communicating a strategy for social isolation about a month ago, with compulsory quarantine for those returning from China, and Italy.
https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1239627378307055616?s=20
https://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C1140744
There are some exercise-minded people here who can give you exercising-but-not-at-the-gym tips.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1239828692240662530?s=20
It was part of laying the groundwork so people understood why a lockdown would be necessary. I don't believe you are so stupid or ignorant to believe that Johnson was saying "take the hit" so I can only interpret that you're so partisan that you'd rather play politics with this.
FWIW, the policies announced yesterday by the UK government were portrayed by the news media here in Germany as a big change of direction, and an abandonment of the previous policy.
A lot of anger from SMEs on the way the government’s announcement yesterday has hung them and their employees out to dry. If Johnson does not correct this - and fast - and not with some measly mouthed measures - he is going to lose a lot of those votes he will need later.
2) We still haven't locked down. My lad is at school today.
Then when we are at a loose end we can peruse the list of our choice to make a selection
Edit/Or do a different topic each day and then archive the list on its own thread. Or something
I'm sorry but you are starting to sound exactly like HYUFD.
1. You're talking about an annual number. That means you need to see the private sector down almost 40% for the entire year. (And January and February already happened.) Given there will be a government response, that seems a lot.
2. There are any natural stabilisers in the economy, such as oil imports.
I wouldn't be surprised to see gdp down double digits in q2. But remember that economic activity should increase as lockdowns are lifted.
Especially knotty are self-employed people whose job requires their on-site presence (plumbers, electricians, etc).
Shutting down 100% of many industries is going to see a large knock on effect.
This could be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
EDIT: Having said that I'm not saying a 20% drop is what I'd expect this year, just I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. If I was to put my finger in the air and guess I'd say about a 10% drop is more likely.
https://youtu.be/91jK9F_pTSU?t=2120
Today will show us if Boris and Sunak really understand the scale of what they are facing and are up to it. I fear not.
He then goes on to explain why timing is critical and why they want to avoid closing schools for months and seeing children sent to grandparents who would be put at more risk.
I also think that's probably the right thing to do. Because we will get fewer people dying than if the virus wasn't tackled.
We gonna end up with enforced lockdown aren't we?
https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1239809779343605763
I'd guess about 10% fall but would be less surprised with 20% fall than any growth.
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2754540/#Comment_2754540
Arguably it was the medical guy who made the biggest slip, when he said that more infections were actually desirable. Technically, given where we are, and provided they see of younger people who will recover, he was correct. But we don’t need to, and never did need to, do anything to encourage them, since a rise in infection rate was always nailed on, regardless. I have been impressed with the scientific advisers, but the one risk is that they say things that are strictly correct without thinking about how they might come across.
Robert Chote says that Britain needs a "wartime mentality" to deal with coronavirus. He says during WW2 the govt ran deficits in excess of 20% for "five years on the trot and that was the right thing to do at that time."
This is no time to be squeamish about public debt, he insisted - indeed, a large, temporary increased in borrowing makes sense.
He reminded the Treasury committee that the UK budget deficit hit 20% of GDP in the second world war (it was just 1.9% last year).
Chote also singles out gig economy workers - saying its crucial to make up their earnings in some way."
Looks like the answer is you don't need schools functioning as schools? You need them as child care? Maybe summer club come early? Time to get out the box and creative?
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-coronavirus-drugs.html
The main issue for HMG is to put this directly into the pockets of consumers and businesses and avoid the banks entirely
"According to Benjamin Neuman, a virologist at Texas A&M University-Texarkana, immunizing against the pathogen is a long shot: There has never been a very successful human vaccine against any member of the coronavirus family."
Look; I don’t want to question the govt.
My natural inclination is indeed to follow the line and I’m not interested in political partisanship garbage like #boristhebutcher.
But the government has been caught out as sleeping, or complacent, or arrogant. Or all three.
I am not clamouring for “lockdowns” nor for school closures. If I am clamouring for anything, it is the economics. We need what @MaxPB posted upthread, but my fear is that the govt will attempt half measures.
Of course it does mean that those children are probably going to mix with a new bunch of children, but that might be another reason to do it sooner rather than later.
One of the firms flat out making ventilators has organised child care at the factory EDIT, or rather I should say organised their own childcare for their workers - I doubt it's actually at the factory!
and yet that wasn't your approach on Brexit. Why the change ?
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1239866617766559744
It doesn't help that the Prime Minister in his wisdom decided to sack the man who was showing signs of independent thought and replace him with a pliant yes-man.
Australia has the first and second but lacks the third.
Although governments are comprised of humans, who theoretically should be able to learn from other governments' failures, a government is not an intelligent agent. A government is an organism. And it seems like the only way a governmental organism can develop an immune system that will allow it to fight off a threat like this is if it's previously got sick.
The better analogy would be if I was on here arguing for increased homeopathy to combat coronavirus.