Good morning. Under a week ago I posed some innocent questions about government policy that attracted sneering from several quarters.
Great to be vindicated.
There’s a model for how to beat this, in the Far East. It does not require welding people inside. It *does* require mass testing, and a belief this can be beat, rather than “managed”. Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher would never have accepted that “a virus may never be found”. I agree we are now at War. Let us now approach this with wartime spirit, and wartime confidence. Let us think about how we save the lives of each other; how we protect our communities from starvation and ruin.
How do you do mass testing when you don't have the facilities to do more than x,000 tests a day?
Perhaps they should have geared up for it over last couple of months rather than sitting on their hands planning herd immunity.
Key points: 1. Protect incomes 2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses 3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result 4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
Yep. There is no alternative. Ideally, this needs to be as coordinated and internationalised as possible. Trump cannot be trusted to be a part if it, and would not want to be anyway, so the US government will have to be bypassed. But that leaves plenty more that can play a part. In Europe, Germany needs to step up, for example.
Good luck with that. I fear Germany will not only respond weakly itself but make the use of monetary policy through the ECB much more difficult. The role of the central bank is absolutely key in this response. Can you really see the Germans allowing it to pump the required liquidity into the PIGS? And yet these countries need it even more than we do with their larger tourist industries absolutely dead.
I don’t know what Germany will do. But I know what it should do. Ditto for the UK!
I think we are on the same page. It's kind of obvious. Boris' pragmatism and lack of fundamental principles should help here. He will do what works. I find it hard to imagine where we would be with May/Hammond at the moment. Thank goodness they are gone.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.
The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.
I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.
Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
It's a mistake for sure. But if we start changing our frame of reference then it isn't as bad as it appears.
Think of this as a world war. Then think of the mistakes made during WW1 or WW2. Simple tactical mistakes that cost thousands of lives in a stroke. A ship sunk because a message didnt get through etc. We've just done one of those.
But what we haven't done is get to within 80 miles of Moscow and then hit the Winter. Then turned all the way back home and routed. We have caught our mistake fairly early, we considered invading Russia. We stepped over their border but it was an accident and the Russians believed us.
The problem now is we all have to hunker down for a long war. We will need Blitz spirit without any of the bits of the Blitz that made it fun and inspirational.
Both of these long posts are really good. I have nothing to add except my admiration.
There is not the moral fibre in UK today to ever get anywhere near the Blitz spirit. Too many selfish greedy grasping people only out for themselves for it ever to be anything like the war spirit. More likely to be breaking into your house to get your toilet rolls.
There was a lot of looting during the Blitz - even of newly bombed homes while the family were still in the shelter. It just got hushed up.
I am sure there were a good few roasters then , but no comparison of the modern day Brit to those in WWII , today's lot would be found wanting.
Sorry Malc, but that's rubbish. Of course there'd be a mixture of good and bad, but plenty would 'step up to the plate' just as their grandparents did. See that among my and my friends children and grandchildren.
I wish I shared your optimism, we shall see if the great unwashed share your attributes. Given recent evidence re fighting in aisles for toilet rolls etc I am sceptical.
Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).
It is perfectly clear they are trying to have as much of the impact the lockdown will have in Italy, Spain and France without the damage enforcement of the lockdown will have (whilst reserving the option to go lockdown later on).
Excellent policy imo rather than weird.
Makes government look unnecessarily shifty and when you look for the details there aren’t any. Net result my wife, who has MS (on the protected list), is now ummiing and arring about work today. Unnecessary stress if the government had got off the fence.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
Key points: 1. Protect incomes 2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses 3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result 4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
Yep. There is no alternative. Ideally, this needs to be as coordinated and internationalised as possible. Trump cannot be trusted to be a part if it, and would not want to be anyway, so the US government will have to be bypassed. But that leaves plenty more that can play a part. In Europe, Germany needs to step up, for example.
Good luck with that. I fear Germany will not only respond weakly itself but make the use of monetary policy through the ECB much more difficult. The role of the central bank is absolutely key in this response. Can you really see the Germans allowing it to pump the required liquidity into the PIGS? And yet these countries need it even more than we do with their larger tourist industries absolutely dead.
I don’t know what Germany will do. But I know what it should do. Ditto for the UK!
I think we are on the same page. It's kind of obvious. Boris' pragmatism and lack of fundamental principles should help here. He will do what works. I find it hard to imagine where we would be with May/Hammond at the moment. Thank goodness they are gone.
I think you live in a dream world David, Boris will be too busy looking after himself and his chums to give a crap about you and the rest of the public. He will do everything based on his own best interests unfortunately.
10% of my department already self isolating with coughs etc.
The need for testing of staff with symptoms is obvious to anyone apart from numpties, but still not happening.
It's not much fun being in the poor bloody infantry when the generals haven't equipped us.
They did say yesterday (and last week) that testing for NHS staff is a priority. It is alarming if that is not feeding to the front line. They are obviously desperate for the antibody test but we can't wait on that.
Similarly PPE. I was at the hospital A&E for an unrelated matter on Sunday. I was astonished that none of the staff there were wearing masks. There was a separate section that looked set up to deal with CV admissions but to even dream that these were going to effectively be kept separate was obviously a fantasy.
Key points: 1. Protect incomes 2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses 3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result 4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
My plan is far simpler and more effective. Helicopter money to every adult of median wage in the UK, in exchange allow businesses or employees to opt out of wages and work for the duration of the lockdowns.
This deals directly with small and large businesses alike from gig economy delivery drivers to easyjet. Companies will have to fund three months non discretionary non wage costs. Those that cant arent likely to be great companies and arent that important to the economy either.
A handful of exceptions for businesses beyond that with genuine high strategic value to the UK.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
Key points: 1. Protect incomes 2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses 3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result 4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
Yep. There is no alternative. Ideally, this needs to be as coordinated and internationalised as possible. Trump cannot be trusted to be a part if it, and would not want to be anyway, so the US government will have to be bypassed. But that leaves plenty more that can play a part. In Europe, Germany needs to step up, for example.
Good luck with that. I fear Germany will not only respond weakly itself but make the use of monetary policy through the ECB much more difficult. The role of the central bank is absolutely key in this response. Can you really see the Germans allowing it to pump the required liquidity into the PIGS? And yet these countries need it even more than we do with their larger tourist industries absolutely dead.
I don’t know what Germany will do. But I know what it should do. Ditto for the UK!
I think we are on the same page. It's kind of obvious. Boris' pragmatism and lack of fundamental principles should help here. He will do what works. I find it hard to imagine where we would be with May/Hammond at the moment. Thank goodness they are gone.
I think you live in a dream world David, Boris will be too busy looking after himself and his chums to give a crap about you and the rest of the public. He will do everything based on his own best interests unfortunately.
It's in his best interests to keep his voters alive Malcolm. I really hope your wife has recovered sufficiently to deal with this. It must be a worry.
Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).
It is perfectly clear they are trying to have as much of the impact the lockdown will have in Italy, Spain and France without the damage enforcement of the lockdown will have (whilst reserving the option to go lockdown later on).
Excellent policy imo rather than weird.
Makes government look unnecessarily shifty and when you look for the details there aren’t any. Net result my wife, who has MS (on the protected list), is now ummiing and arring about work today. Unnecessary stress if the government had got off the fence.
The advice is clear, she should not be going to work.
Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).
It is perfectly clear they are trying to have as much of the impact the lockdown will have in Italy, Spain and France without the damage enforcement of the lockdown will have (whilst reserving the option to go lockdown later on).
Excellent policy imo rather than weird.
Makes government look unnecessarily shifty and when you look for the details there aren’t any. Net result my wife, who has MS (on the protected list), is now ummiing and arring about work today. Unnecessary stress if the government had got off the fence.
The advice is clear, she should not be going to work.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.
The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.
I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.
Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
It's a mistake for sure. But if we start changing our frame of reference then it isn't as bad as it appears.
Think of this as a world war. Then think of the mistakes made during WW1 or WW2. Simple tactical mistakes that cost thousands of lives in a stroke. A ship sunk because a message didnt get through etc. We've just done one of those.
But what we haven't done is get to within 80 miles of Moscow and then hit the Winter. Then turned all the way back home and routed. We have caught our mistake fairly early, we considered invading Russia. We stepped over their border but it was an accident and the Russians believed us.
The problem now is we all have to hunker down for a long war. We will need Blitz spirit without any of the bits of the Blitz that made it fun and inspirational.
Both of these long posts are really good. I have nothing to add except my admiration.
There is not the moral fibre in UK today to ever get anywhere near the Blitz spirit. Too many selfish greedy grasping people only out for themselves for it ever to be anything like the war spirit. More likely to be breaking into your house to get your toilet rolls.
There was a lot of looting during the Blitz - even of newly bombed homes while the family were still in the shelter. It just got hushed up.
I am sure there were a good few roasters then , but no comparison of the modern day Brit to those in WWII , today's lot would be found wanting.
Sorry Malc, but that's rubbish. Of course there'd be a mixture of good and bad, but plenty would 'step up to the plate' just as their grandparents did. See that among my and my friends children and grandchildren.
I wish I shared your optimism, we shall see if the great unwashed share your attributes. Given recent evidence re fighting in aisles for toilet rolls etc I am sceptical.
I am a natural optimist, I suppose, Incidentally how is Mrs Malc progressing? Well, I hope.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
Our planet has a remarkable ability to heal, given the chance.
Covid-19 as Gaia in action?
The last time something similar happened was 9/11 over North America when the jet trails of high flying air craft disappeared, this may have led to a period of climate cooling for about a week until the airlines got going again
SK has now had less than 100 new cases for 3 days in a row. Like China they seem to have controlled the virus. I find their example hopeful because they started off with it completely out of control with large scale community transmission where tracing seemed impossible. And yet with very aggressive testing they have done it.
This virus can be beaten. It requires us to take it very seriously, to cut off the vectors for transmission and to limit its opportunities. I think that we are now doing that. I also understand the logic of our earlier policy and the reasons that we wanted to address this now rather than in winter. But there is ultimately no alternative. To stop the virus from killing large numbers of vulnerable people it’s transmission needs to be stopped.
Our numbers will deteriorate for at least 2 weeks yet. That means thousands of additional cases and several hundred additional deaths. And then we shall see.
We should see some effect from the hand washing etc.. Can't even remember when that was!
The most crucial thing for me I keeping people out of hospital, and that means some form of treatment at home. There was a 'doctor' app heavily advertised last year, could we use that for consultations? There also needs to be some form of prescription that can be offered and home delivered. Even vitamin c and zinc would be better than nothing as a placebo.
Zinc is not a placebo. There is pretty good evidence for it as an antiviral.
Since you flagged this up a couple of weeks ago, I have been taking a zinc and selenium supplement. Thanks.
Snap! I did notice that some of the supplements are quite strong, so there can be a danger of too much if combined with other vitamin tablets that might have low levels of zinc in as well. Too much can apparently have the opposite impact and make you more susceptible.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
That was my first real warning about what was coming. I sent it to our pensions fund managers saying that they were not getting this. What is frustrating is that NASA have not put up a picture for March. It would give us an idea if the Chinese have really gone back to work and, if so, to what extent.
Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).
It is perfectly clear they are trying to have as much of the impact the lockdown will have in Italy, Spain and France without the damage enforcement of the lockdown will have (whilst reserving the option to go lockdown later on).
Excellent policy imo rather than weird.
Makes government look unnecessarily shifty and when you look for the details there aren’t any. Net result my wife, who has MS (on the protected list), is now ummiing and arring about work today. Unnecessary stress if the government had got off the fence.
The advice is clear, she should not be going to work.
But can if she wants. Right?
Armed police are not going to stop her as they might in France, no. I hope her employer would if they know the situation.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
Our planet has a remarkable ability to heal, given the chance.
Covid-19 as Gaia in action?
The last time something similar happened was 9/11 over North America when the jet trails of high flying air craft disappeared, this may have led to a period of climate cooling for about a week until the airlines got going again
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
Key points: 1. Protect incomes 2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses 3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result 4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
My plan is far simpler and more effective. Helicopter money to every adult of median wage in the UK, in exchange allow businesses or employees to opt out of wages and work for the duration of the lockdowns.
This deals directly with small and large businesses alike from gig economy delivery drivers to easyjet. Companies will have to fund three months non discretionary non wage costs. Those that cant arent likely to be great companies and arent that important to the economy either.
A handful of exceptions for businesses beyond that with genuine high strategic value to the UK.
I prefer mine because it keeps businesses intact but one way or another we are talking tens of billions a week being pumped into the economy for at least a dozen weeks.
Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).
The government's position is clear now, we're on national lockdown now.
Do you only do the right thing if the government forces you to do so with the police and military to back them up, rather than based on thinking and advice?
Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).
It is perfectly clear they are trying to have as much of the impact the lockdown will have in Italy, Spain and France without the damage enforcement of the lockdown will have (whilst reserving the option to go lockdown later on).
Excellent policy imo rather than weird.
Makes government look unnecessarily shifty and when you look for the details there aren’t any. Net result my wife, who has MS (on the protected list), is now ummiing and arring about work today. Unnecessary stress if the government had got off the fence.
The advice is clear, she should not be going to work.
But can if she wants. Right?
Armed police are not going to stop her as they might in France, no. I hope her employer would if they know the situation.
I am sure these discussions are playing out all around the country. The point is that the advice is unhelpfully muddy and open to personal interpretation.
Key points: 1. Protect incomes 2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses 3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result 4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
Yep. There is no alternative. Ideally, this needs to be as coordinated and internationalised as possible. Trump cannot be trusted to be a part if it, and would not want to be anyway, so the US government will have to be bypassed. But that leaves plenty more that can play a part. In Europe, Germany needs to step up, for example.
Good luck with that. I fear Germany will not only respond weakly itself but make the use of monetary policy through the ECB much more difficult. The role of the central bank is absolutely key in this response. Can you really see the Germans allowing it to pump the required liquidity into the PIGS? And yet these countries need it even more than we do with their larger tourist industries absolutely dead.
I don’t know what Germany will do. But I know what it should do. Ditto for the UK!
I think we are on the same page. It's kind of obvious. Boris' pragmatism and lack of fundamental principles should help here. He will do what works. I find it hard to imagine where we would be with May/Hammond at the moment. Thank goodness they are gone.
I think you live in a dream world David, Boris will be too busy looking after himself and his chums to give a crap about you and the rest of the public. He will do everything based on his own best interests unfortunately.
It's in his best interests to keep his voters alive Malcolm. I really hope your wife has recovered sufficiently to deal with this. It must be a worry.
Hello David, thanks for that , she still has issues , supposed to go in for Bronchoscopy tomorrow but is talking of not going , I am not sure how hard I want to try and persuade her to get it done. The other issue re heart caused by the illness is being treated in private hospital as they had a minimum 12 week target for an appointment. Top guy and he is hoping to sort it out in coming weeks with Cardioversion. Been isolating for good bit now apart from hospital appointments and one shopping visit a week. So will be isolated for forseeable future.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
That was my first real warning about what was coming. I sent it to our pensions fund managers saying that they were not getting this. What is frustrating is that NASA have not put up a picture for March. It would give us an idea if the Chinese have really gone back to work and, if so, to what extent.
There was fretting yesterday about deliveries of salads from Spain and Italy. The other side of that coin is there will be about half a million tons less of food waste if it last 4-6 weeks. About half of all salad bought gets chucked in the bin and if that means half the number of lorries to deliver our food waste then less diesel pollution too.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
Our planet has a remarkable ability to heal, given the chance.
Covid-19 as Gaia in action?
The last time something similar happened was 9/11 over North America when the jet trails of high flying air craft disappeared, this may have led to a period of climate cooling for about a week until the airlines got going again
I spoke to a geologist at a party (ha, remember them? Such innocent days) a couple of weeks ago. She said that the difference in the upper air temperatures was really marked after only a few days. Made me wonder if we are still underestimating the effect of so much flying. We are about to find out.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
Key points: 1. Protect incomes 2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses 3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result 4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
My plan is far simpler and more effective. Helicopter money to every adult of median wage in the UK, in exchange allow businesses or employees to opt out of wages and work for the duration of the lockdowns.
This deals directly with small and large businesses alike from gig economy delivery drivers to easyjet. Companies will have to fund three months non discretionary non wage costs. Those that cant arent likely to be great companies and arent that important to the economy either.
A handful of exceptions for businesses beyond that with genuine high strategic value to the UK.
I prefer mine because it keeps businesses intact but one way or another we are talking tens of billions a week being pumped into the economy for at least a dozen weeks.
Back of the envelope my plan is costing £300bn for 3 months. Possibly some/most social security costs could be suspended if everyone getting median wage, but then also need to account for far lower tax receipts with the economy freezing up.
The government needs to unveil the big bazooka today:
Unlimited 0% credit for all UK businesses for the next 60 days in return for real asset securitization.
Postponement of all business rates, rent, commercial loans, mortgages, council tax, and corporation tax for 90 days.
Quarantine measures training for supermarket home delivery crews and provision of hazmat suits for all major delivery companies and supermarkets.
Massive increase in delivery capacity for food and other essentials.
Mandatory wearing of masks for all people going outdoors, mandatory testing for all NHS, education staff and children.
Close the border to all new arrivals, returning British citizens and long term residents required to go into 14 day off-site quarantine on arrival. Agree this approach with the US and Canada, slowly reopen the border for US and Canadian citizens under the same terms.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
That's a great question.
The core of the failure in the west seems to be failing to take seriously things that happened in China and the rest of the far east - both the seriousness of the initial outbreak, and options you have to contain it, many of them learned through bitter experience in screwing up the attempt to deal with SARS. So if you want a politician who might have been able to get ahead of things you need someone who pays attention to things that happen in east asia, instead of trying to understand it based on the lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic.
I think it's significant that Jeremy Hunt, one of the only people to speak out against the consensus last week when the British were busy getting knocked on their arses - lived in Japan and was learning Chinese.
This is a brilliant post.
Your point about Jeremy Hunt is super-smart. I think you've crystallised why I am so irritated by our approach.
It's a mistake for sure. But if we start changing our frame of reference then it isn't as bad as it appears.
Think of this as a world war. Then think of the mistakes made during WW1 or WW2. Simple tactical mistakes that cost thousands of lives in a stroke. A ship sunk because a message didnt get through etc. We've just done one of those.
But what we haven't done is get to within 80 miles of Moscow and then hit the Winter. Then turned all the way back home and routed. We have caught our mistake fairly early, we considered invading Russia. We stepped over their border but it was an accident and the Russians believed us.
The problem now is we all have to hunker down for a long war. We will need Blitz spirit without any of the bits of the Blitz that made it fun and inspirational.
Both of these long posts are really good. I have nothing to add except my admiration.
There is not the moral fibre in UK today to ever get anywhere near the Blitz spirit. Too many selfish greedy grasping people only out for themselves for it ever to be anything like the war spirit. More likely to be breaking into your house to get your toilet rolls.
There was a lot of looting during the Blitz - even of newly bombed homes while the family were still in the shelter. It just got hushed up.
Not to mention stockpiling, profiteering, the pervasiveness of the black market, avoidance of conscription and increased xenophobia (often directed at Jewish refugees). So nothing like now of course.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
That was my first real warning about what was coming. I sent it to our pensions fund managers saying that they were not getting this. What is frustrating is that NASA have not put up a picture for March. It would give us an idea if the Chinese have really gone back to work and, if so, to what extent.
There was fretting yesterday about deliveries of salads from Spain and Italy. The other side of that coin is there will be about half a million tons less of food waste if it last 4-6 weeks. About half of all salad bought gets chucked in the bin and if that means half the number of lorries to deliver our food waste then less diesel pollution too.
Surely you only have the less diesel pollution - those leaves are still growing so will need to be disposed of regardless..
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
Good point. Also good to remember the opposition being constructively supportive during that crisis. They did not try to make party political points. A model to follow. Hmmmmm.
Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).
It is perfectly clear they are trying to have as much of the impact the lockdown will have in Italy, Spain and France without the damage enforcement of the lockdown will have (whilst reserving the option to go lockdown later on).
Excellent policy imo rather than weird.
Makes government look unnecessarily shifty and when you look for the details there aren’t any. Net result my wife, who has MS (on the protected list), is now ummiing and arring about work today. Unnecessary stress if the government had got off the fence.
The advice is clear, she should not be going to work.
But can if she wants. Right?
Armed police are not going to stop her as they might in France, no. I hope her employer would if they know the situation.
I am sure these discussions are playing out all around the country. The point is that the advice is unhelpfully muddy and open to personal interpretation.
Wishy washy leadership ( ie none ) too scared of making themselves unpopular , just looking to next election. Time for a real leader who is not out for themselves.
Key points: 1. Protect incomes 2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses 3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result 4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
Yep. There is no alternative. Ideally, this needs to be as coordinated and internationalised as possible. Trump cannot be trusted to be a part if it, and would not want to be anyway, so the US government will have to be bypassed. But that leaves plenty more that can play a part. In Europe, Germany needs to step up, for example.
Good luck with that. I fear Germany will not only respond weakly itself but make the use of monetary policy through the ECB much more difficult. The role of the central bank is absolutely key in this response. Can you really see the Germans allowing it to pump the required liquidity into the PIGS? And yet these countries need it even more than we do with their larger tourist industries absolutely dead.
I don’t know what Germany will do. But I know what it should do. Ditto for the UK!
I think we are on the same page. It's kind of obvious. Boris' pragmatism and lack of fundamental principles should help here. He will do what works. I find it hard to imagine where we would be with May/Hammond at the moment. Thank goodness they are gone.
I think you live in a dream world David, Boris will be too busy looking after himself and his chums to give a crap about you and the rest of the public. He will do everything based on his own best interests unfortunately.
It's in his best interests to keep his voters alive Malcolm. I really hope your wife has recovered sufficiently to deal with this. It must be a worry.
Hello David, thanks for that , she still has issues , supposed to go in for Bronchoscopy tomorrow but is talking of not going , I am not sure how hard I want to try and persuade her to get it done. The other issue re heart caused by the illness is being treated in private hospital as they had a minimum 12 week target for an appointment. Top guy and he is hoping to sort it out in coming weeks with Cardioversion. Been isolating for good bit now apart from hospital appointments and one shopping visit a week. So will be isolated for forseeable future.
Completely right. One thing this crisis has brought home to me is how many of our society are really vulnerable to a dislocation like this. The senile being cared for at home, those getting treatment for cancer and many other conditions, those who don't have close family and are alone.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
That was my first real warning about what was coming. I sent it to our pensions fund managers saying that they were not getting this. What is frustrating is that NASA have not put up a picture for March. It would give us an idea if the Chinese have really gone back to work and, if so, to what extent.
There was fretting yesterday about deliveries of salads from Spain and Italy. The other side of that coin is there will be about half a million tons less of food waste if it last 4-6 weeks. About half of all salad bought gets chucked in the bin and if that means half the number of lorries to deliver our food waste then less diesel pollution too.
Surely you only have the less diesel pollution - those leaves are still growing so will need to be disposed of regardless..
good point, but they don't have to be picked by illegal labour , packed in plastic bags which get dumped in the sea or landfill and we wont be draining aquifers at the same rate in Southern Spain.
The long term solution is of course to only buy what we intend to eat.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
Good point. Also good to remember the opposition being constructively supportive during that crisis. They did not try to make party political points. A model to follow. Hmmmmm.
Labour fucked up the economy and banking regulations. There's nothing more to it than that.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
Good point. Also good to remember the opposition being constructively supportive during that crisis. They did not try to make party political points. A model to follow. Hmmmmm.
Labour fucked up the economy and banking regulations. There's nothing more to it than that.
Tories in the spotlight now, we will see how they handle a crisis for sure and early signs are not encouraging.
Apart from the cynics favouring the actuarial odds I'd say the favs are RochdalePioneers and GIN1138. Chapeau to rcs1000 and Philip_Thompson for amusing choices.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
That was my first real warning about what was coming. I sent it to our pensions fund managers saying that they were not getting this. What is frustrating is that NASA have not put up a picture for March. It would give us an idea if the Chinese have really gone back to work and, if so, to what extent.
There was fretting yesterday about deliveries of salads from Spain and Italy. The other side of that coin is there will be about half a million tons less of food waste if it last 4-6 weeks. About half of all salad bought gets chucked in the bin and if that means half the number of lorries to deliver our food waste then less diesel pollution too.
I am sure it is virtuous to buy salad. Eating it is going a bit far though.
Key points: 1. Protect incomes 2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses 3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result 4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
Yep. There is no alternative. Ideally, this needs to be as coordinated and internationalised as possible. Trump cannot be trusted to be a part if it, and would not want to be anyway, so the US government will have to be bypassed. But that leaves plenty more that can play a part. In Europe, Germany needs to step up, for example.
Good luck with that. I fear Germany will not only respond weakly itself but make the use of monetary policy through the ECB much more difficult. The role of the central bank is absolutely key in this response. Can you really see the Germans allowing it to pump the required liquidity into the PIGS? And yet these countries need it even more than we do with their larger tourist industries absolutely dead.
I don’t know what Germany will do. But I know what it should do. Ditto for the UK!
I think we are on the same page. It's kind of obvious. Boris' pragmatism and lack of fundamental principles should help here. He will do what works. I find it hard to imagine where we would be with May/Hammond at the moment. Thank goodness they are gone.
I think you live in a dream world David, Boris will be too busy looking after himself and his chums to give a crap about you and the rest of the public. He will do everything based on his own best interests unfortunately.
It's in his best interests to keep his voters alive Malcolm. I really hope your wife has recovered sufficiently to deal with this. It must be a worry.
Hello David, thanks for that , she still has issues , supposed to go in for Bronchoscopy tomorrow but is talking of not going , I am not sure how hard I want to try and persuade her to get it done. The other issue re heart caused by the illness is being treated in private hospital as they had a minimum 12 week target for an appointment. Top guy and he is hoping to sort it out in coming weeks with Cardioversion. Been isolating for good bit now apart from hospital appointments and one shopping visit a week. So will be isolated for forseeable future.
Hi Malcolm, best of luck for your wife, Cardiovesion is marvellous for AF, you go in with your rhythm all over the place, and a few minutes later you wake up normal, just have to keep it normal. A gall bladder op that went wrong put me in AF. Cardioversion fixed me.
The government needs to unveil the big bazooka today:
Unlimited 0% credit for all UK businesses for the next 60 days in return for real asset securitization.
Postponement of all business rates, rent, commercial loans, mortgages, council tax, and corporation tax for 90 days.
Quarantine measures training for supermarket home delivery crews and provision of hazmat suits for all major delivery companies and supermarkets.
Massive increase in delivery capacity for food and other essentials.
Mandatory wearing of masks for all people going outdoors, mandatory testing for all NHS, education staff and children.
Close the border to all new arrivals, returning British citizens and long term residents required to go into 14 day off-site quarantine on arrival. Agree this approach with the US and Canada, slowly reopen the border for US and Canadian citizens under the same terms.
I think that about covers it.
Mandatory mask wearing when you cannot source them ?
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
Good point. Also good to remember the opposition being constructively supportive during that crisis. They did not try to make party political points. A model to follow. Hmmmmm.
Labour fucked up the economy and banking regulations. There's nothing more to it than that.
That is your view. Not particularly constructive. I wonder if this government expects to be treated in the same way it treated others or call for national unity?
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
His last twelve months in office can be summed up in one word. Spite.
The government needs to unveil the big bazooka today:
Unlimited 0% credit for all UK businesses for the next 60 days in return for real asset securitization.
Postponement of all business rates, rent, commercial loans, mortgages, council tax, and corporation tax for 90 days.
Quarantine measures training for supermarket home delivery crews and provision of hazmat suits for all major delivery companies and supermarkets.
Massive increase in delivery capacity for food and other essentials.
Mandatory wearing of masks for all people going outdoors, mandatory testing for all NHS, education staff and children...it.
Given the constraints on both mask supply and testing capacity, those last two things are unrealistic. As are hazmat suits for delivery drivers. Any testing should first be allocated to NHS employees.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
Good point. Also good to remember the opposition being constructively supportive during that crisis. They did not try to make party political points. A model to follow. Hmmmmm.
Labour fucked up the economy and banking regulations. There's nothing more to it than that.
Tories in the spotlight now, we will see how they handle a crisis for sure and early signs are not encouraging.
Indeed. Announcing an economic shutdown yesterday and no plan for the businesses to keep going was completely idiotic. Hopefully that gets rectified today or a lot of people wil be out of work next month.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
Good point. Also good to remember the opposition being constructively supportive during that crisis. They did not try to make party political points. A model to follow. Hmmmmm.
Labour fucked up the economy and banking regulations. There's nothing more to it than that.
That is your view. Not particularly constructive. I wonder if this government expects to be treated in the same way it treated others or call for national unity?
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
Good point. Also good to remember the opposition being constructively supportive during that crisis. They did not try to make party political points. A model to follow. Hmmmmm.
Labour fucked up the economy and banking regulations. There's nothing more to it than that.
That is your view. Not particularly constructive. I wonder if this government expects to be treated in the same way it treated others or call for national unity?
No, it not my view. It's what happened.
No, it’s your view. A view that glosses over what happened elsewhere in the world. Anyway let’s not debate ancient history. Another world.
Strong (entirely optional) emergency measures to be implemented strictly (or so far as practically possible), ASAP (by the weekend maybe).
It is perfectly clear they are trying to have as much of the impact the lockdown will have in Italy, Spain and France without the damage enforcement of the lockdown will have (whilst reserving the option to go lockdown later on).
Excellent policy imo rather than weird.
Makes government look unnecessarily shifty and when you look for the details there aren’t any. Net result my wife, who has MS (on the protected list), is now ummiing and arring about work today. Unnecessary stress if the government had got off the fence.
The advice is clear, she should not be going to work.
But can if she wants. Right?
Armed police are not going to stop her as they might in France, no. I hope her employer would if they know the situation.
I am sure these discussions are playing out all around the country. The point is that the advice is unhelpfully muddy and open to personal interpretation.
Wishy washy leadership ( ie none ) too scared of making themselves unpopular , just looking to next election. Time for a real leader who is not out for themselves.
Morning Malc
You do know Nicola is part of Cobra and is involved in the decision making and endorses the governments position based on the scientific advise
You have a beef with most everyone but in the end we all need to give the politicians and advisors the space to deal with this
No one and no country has a single solution to this crisis
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
except he causes the effing crisis first
No he did not. If you want to watch a self-isolated video on the global financial crisis with comments from the leading American players (including some rude words when Labour blocked the Barclays takeover of Lehmans), there is this:
VICE on HBO looks at factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and the efforts made by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner, and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to save the United States from an economic collapse. The feature-length documentary explores the challenges these men faced, as well as the consequences of their decisions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QozGSS7QY_U
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
Good point. Also good to remember the opposition being constructively supportive during that crisis. They did not try to make party political points. A model to follow. Hmmmmm.
Labour fucked up the economy and banking regulations. There's nothing more to it than that.
Tories in the spotlight now, we will see how they handle a crisis for sure and early signs are not encouraging.
Indeed. Announcing an economic shutdown yesterday and no plan for the businesses to keep going was completely idiotic. Hopefully that gets rectified today or a lot of people wil be out of work next month.
It was a health emergency yesterday based on the Imperial results.
Key points: 1. Protect incomes 2. Do not allow cashflow issues to kill businesses 3. Be clear there will be consequences for everyone as a result 4. Be clear these consequences are far better than the alternatives
As I said last night the only thing that I can see that will work is allowing firms to draw on credit to replace their lost cash flow on the condition that they pass this on to their staff and gig workers. I can’t think of anything else that is going to allow cash to flow through the system sufficiently. The benefits system could not possibly cope. The banks could not survive so many of their securities becoming non functioning at once or the collapse of asset prices. Some of these businesses will ultimately fail in the changed world, especially those dealing with travel, holidays, cruises etc. So be it. The priority now is to keep enough businesses alive to ensure we still have an economy when the health war is won.
My plan is far simpler and more effective. Helicopter money to every adult of median wage in the UK, in exchange allow businesses or employees to opt out of wages and work for the duration of the lockdowns.
This deals directly with small and large businesses alike from gig economy delivery drivers to easyjet. Companies will have to fund three months non discretionary non wage costs. Those that cant arent likely to be great companies and arent that important to the economy either.
A handful of exceptions for businesses beyond that with genuine high strategic value to the UK.
I prefer mine because it keeps businesses intact but one way or another we are talking tens of billions a week being pumped into the economy for at least a dozen weeks.
Back of the envelope my plan is costing £300bn for 3 months. Possibly some/most social security costs could be suspended if everyone getting median wage, but then also need to account for far lower tax receipts with the economy freezing up.
We are not in dispute on the scale of what is required. I really hope we don't see something timid today. Confidence in both businesses and banks is going to be important. Sunak said "whatever it takes". Now is the time to prove that.
Last night we discussed PM's who'd have had handled this better. There is one STANDOUT (sorry to shout) leader in my lifetime who would have been absolutely brilliant in this. The kind of leader who would have been calm, authoritarian, decisive and inspirational:
Margaret Thatcher.
That's right. Me, a lefty, is craving a Maggie.
If you want a PM with crisis management experience, who keeps their head when others are panicking, has the guts to take unpopular decisions and also the intellect and dedication to understand the detail, then the answer is clear.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
except he causes the effing crisis first
No he did not. If you want to watch a self-isolated video on the global financial crisis with comments from the leading American players (including some rude words when Labour blocked the Barclays takeover of Lehmans), there is this:
VICE on HBO looks at factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and the efforts made by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner, and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to save the United States from an economic collapse. The feature-length documentary explores the challenges these men faced, as well as the consequences of their decisions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QozGSS7QY_U
You've been spinning that wank for a decade.
He was crap and made a crisis worse than it should have been. "No boom and bust", my arse.
On the actual response, doesn't it seem way too mild? It would have been too little too late last week, but the government instead spent last week pursuing its various theories about why it might not want to do it yet. It's less than Japan did, but way later, and experience from other countries is that the later you leave it, the more you have to shut down.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
That was my first real warning about what was coming. I sent it to our pensions fund managers saying that they were not getting this. What is frustrating is that NASA have not put up a picture for March. It would give us an idea if the Chinese have really gone back to work and, if so, to what extent.
There was fretting yesterday about deliveries of salads from Spain and Italy. The other side of that coin is there will be about half a million tons less of food waste if it last 4-6 weeks. About half of all salad bought gets chucked in the bin and if that means half the number of lorries to deliver our food waste then less diesel pollution too.
Surely you only have the less diesel pollution - those leaves are still growing so will need to be disposed of regardless..
If you have got them all in one place, you can virtuously and usefully compost them and recycle the compost.
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
I know people who went to nightclubs last night... And they were really busy. This is what wishy-washy messaging gets you.
I am not surprised about that as Boris only gave the advice at 5.00pm last night
The process of changing habits will be very quick and a lot better than mandating them with police arresting people and even sending them to jail
It is a policy option but it is sensible to keep it in the locker and to be honest I have enough faith in the people to act responsibly without police dictat
So “follow the science” says shut schools to reduce transmission. But factor in where the kids go for child care, taking needed medical practitioners away from work, to the grand parents etc, it’s better to keep schools open?
Looks like the answer is you don't need schools functioning as schools? You need them as child care? Maybe summer club come early? Time to get out the box and creative?
Whilst out is Spain we’re discussing who’s doing home delivery, the important things in life once you have enough alcohol. Weather not so good today and don’t really need anything from the supermarket but I may go just to get out for thirty mins. Will soaps, tv ones, grind to a halt or will be subject to them shouting through the terrace walls to each other when the full shut down comes.
I know people who went to nightclubs last night... And they were really busy. This is what wishy-washy messaging gets you.
I am not surprised about that as Boris only gave the advice at 5.00pm last night
The process of changing habits will be very quick and a lot better than mandating them with police arresting people and even sending them to jail
It is a policy option but it is sensible to keep it in the locker and to be honest I have enough faith in the people to act responsibly without police dictat
There are things the government can do short of activating the police. Tightening up the language of the advice would be a start. It’s very vague today.
On the actual response, doesn't it seem way too mild? It would have been too little too late last week, but the government instead spent last week pursuing its various theories about why it might not want to do it yet. It's less than Japan did, but way later, and experience from other countries is that the later you leave it, the more you have to shut down.
Does experience really tell us much about what is effective and what isnt?
What has experience taught us about why it took off in Italy but not Greece? Why did it not spread from Wuhan into rest of China? Why Iran but not India?
Reality is that its too complex to draw such firm conclusions about which national policies have worked and which havent, even before you factor in each country being different. UK social distancing was clearly different before to Italy, Spain and France.
The government has made two major mistakes now. The first was misjudging the need to contain much more aggressively. The second was to announce the need to avoid social venues without supporting those venues.
At least it is identifying its mistakes quite quickly.
err wouldn't that be the "experts" since HMG has been following their advice ?
Alan, they have had their heads up their arses , likely to have spent their time thinking how they could benefit themselves more than likely. They could not run a bath.
Anyway amid all the doom and gloom can we look at the silver lining in the clouds ?
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
That was my first real warning about what was coming. I sent it to our pensions fund managers saying that they were not getting this. What is frustrating is that NASA have not put up a picture for March. It would give us an idea if the Chinese have really gone back to work and, if so, to what extent.
There was fretting yesterday about deliveries of salads from Spain and Italy. The other side of that coin is there will be about half a million tons less of food waste if it last 4-6 weeks. About half of all salad bought gets chucked in the bin and if that means half the number of lorries to deliver our food waste then less diesel pollution too.
Surely you only have the less diesel pollution - those leaves are still growing so will need to be disposed of regardless..
If you have got them all in one place, you can virtuously and usefully compost them and recycle the compost.
The sheep and goats will have a field day if they stop harvesting the celery just up the road.
On the actual response, doesn't it seem way too mild? It would have been too little too late last week, but the government instead spent last week pursuing its various theories about why it might not want to do it yet. It's less than Japan did, but way later, and experience from other countries is that the later you leave it, the more you have to shut down.
Does experience really tell us much about what is effective and what isnt?
What has experience taught us about why it took off in Italy but not Greece? Why did it not spread from Wuhan into rest of China? Why Iran but not India?
Reality is that its too complex to draw such firm conclusions about which national policies have worked and which havent, even before you factor in each country being different. UK social distancing was clearly different before to Italy, Spain and France.
We like to think we know more than we really do.
Exactly so. Which means that the scientists and government need to be quick on their feet. We are seeing that at the moment but today is every bit as important as yesterday in how we deal with this.
On the actual response, doesn't it seem way too mild? It would have been too little too late last week, but the government instead spent last week pursuing its various theories about why it might not want to do it yet. It's less than Japan did, but way later, and experience from other countries is that the later you leave it, the more you have to shut down.
You talk all the time as if some one method is the correct one - implying all should follow this. At this stage there is really no evidence of the long-term effectiveness of any individual strategy. The world is still in the middle of the storm. I do know that the current Spanish full lockdown was triggered about 3 days after they closed all the schools and universities and thousands of Spanish students and families headed from the centre and north where the virus was to the south and eastern coasts where it largely wasn't. This has caused huge bad feeling and now the whole country is afflicted probably for 4 months or more. We are now in day 3. How will this pan out? No-one really knows but I'm very loath at this point to blame the government for making mistakes. They're all trying to do the right thing and taking scientific and medical advice - changing course when the advice suggests it. Armchair critics simply sap the morale and in the end piss everyone else off. Especially when their political motives continually peep out from just below the surface.
Well, having got back from Cyprus last night (on my scheduled flight as it happens) I looked up the Government's new social distancing advice, and find that, despite being a fit, healthy 55 year old runner, I'm going to be in the high risk group due to my heart murmur and the fact that it entitles me to a free flu jab. Obviously how much I social distance myself at the moment is up to me (but I ought to it). But if and when quarantine comes in I'll be under house arrest. Problem is, I live alone. But I don't "live" at home, my life is lived outside, in the pub, at running club meetings, parkrun, the gym. I have relatively little entertainment at home, I only have Freeview, no Netflix subscription, although I might have a few books I havent read yet. I am a Civil Servant though and not worried about the financial side. I think I need to set myself a target of being ready for lockdown by the end of the month. Bummer.
Whilst out is Spain we’re discussing who’s doing home delivery, the important things in life once you have enough alcohol. Weather not so good today and don’t really need anything from the supermarket but I may go just to get out for thirty mins. Will soaps, tv ones, grind to a halt or will be subject to them shouting through the terrace walls to each other when the full shut down comes.
What a interesting question (although admittedly low level in scheme of things).
Soaps are filmed about six weeks in advance iirc.
I suspect they wont feature it and indeed may not film at all. This raises the question of the public morale.
I know people who went to nightclubs last night... And they were really busy. This is what wishy-washy messaging gets you.
I am not surprised about that as Boris only gave the advice at 5.00pm last night
The process of changing habits will be very quick and a lot better than mandating them with police arresting people and even sending them to jail
It is a policy option but it is sensible to keep it in the locker and to be honest I have enough faith in the people to act responsibly without police dictat
There are things the government can do short of activating the police. Tightening up the language of the advice would be a start. It’s very vague today.
Most people are law abiding not advice abiding, you look for ways around advice you obey the law.
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
Our MOT is due before the end of the month. Might be a challenge.
Comments
They could not run a bath.
Both are still incredibly quiet.
Most wards are less than half full.
Nurses have nothing to do.
The map on Chinese pollution really gasted my flabber, its just amazing
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-changes-pollution-over-china.html
Similarly PPE. I was at the hospital A&E for an unrelated matter on Sunday. I was astonished that none of the staff there were wearing masks. There was a separate section that looked set up to deal with CV admissions but to even dream that these were going to effectively be kept separate was obviously a fantasy.
Stay safe @Foxy. You are the few of this battle.
There will be new rapid diagnostics being developed as we speak. These will be real game changers in this battle.
This deals directly with small and large businesses alike from gig economy delivery drivers to easyjet. Companies will have to fund three months non discretionary non wage costs. Those that cant arent likely to be great companies and arent that important to the economy either.
A handful of exceptions for businesses beyond that with genuine high strategic value to the UK.
Covid-19 as Gaia in action?
https://globalnews.ca/news/2934513/empty-skies-after-911-set-the-stage-for-an-unlikely-climate-change-experiment/
Do you only do the right thing if the government forces you to do so with the police and military to back them up, rather than based on thinking and advice?
Been isolating for good bit now apart from hospital appointments and one shopping visit a week.
So will be isolated for forseeable future.
He's even available.
Gordon Brown.
Unlimited 0% credit for all UK businesses for the next 60 days in return for real asset securitization.
Postponement of all business rates, rent, commercial loans, mortgages, council tax, and corporation tax for 90 days.
Quarantine measures training for supermarket home delivery crews and provision of hazmat suits for all major delivery companies and supermarkets.
Massive increase in delivery capacity for food and other essentials.
Mandatory wearing of masks for all people going outdoors, mandatory testing for all NHS, education staff and children.
Close the border to all new arrivals, returning British citizens and long term residents required to go into 14 day off-site quarantine on arrival. Agree this approach with the US and Canada, slowly reopen the border for US and Canadian citizens under the same terms.
I think that about covers it.
Aquarius Lemon is infused with Zinc, which contributes to normal cognitive function. In fact, one 250ml serving contains 20 percent of your daily Zinc requirement.
https://www.coca-cola.co.uk/drinks/aquarius-hydration/aquarius-hydration-lemon
The long term solution is of course to only buy what we intend to eat.
Constraints on testing capacity surely don't explain/excuse this ?
@Dura_Ace David Mitchell
@tlg86 Jeremy Clarkson
@MarqueeMark Polly Toynbee
@SandyRentool Simon Calder
@malcolmg Philip Schofield
@kinabula The Queen
@Garethofthevale2 Michael Heseltine
@Philip_Thompson S.K. Tremayne
@RochdalePioneers George R.R. Martin
@Foss Prince Philip
@Benpointer Donald Trump
@Endillion David Attenborough
@nichomar Anne Widdicombe
@Topping Cordelia Gummer
@AramintaMoonbeamQC Jeremy Corbyn
@Beibheirli_C Clint Eastwood
@Richard_Tyndall Prince Charles
@williamglenn Barry Manilow
@felix Owen Jones
@eristdoof Keith Richards
@paulyork64 Paul Gascoigne
@OldKingCole Dennis Skinner
@CarlottaVance Duchess of Cornwall
@Stocky Michael Palin
@Pro_Rata Kenneth Clarke
@MrEd Gwyneth Paltrow
@Paristonda Boris Johnson
@TrèsDifficile Marine Le Pen
@Martin_Kinsella Mahmoud Ahmedinajad
@Fenster Sean Connery
@JohnO Elton John
@Theuniondivvie Olivia de Havilland
@Chameleon Dick Van Dyke
@rottenborough Joe Biden
@LucyJones Piers Morgan
@twistedfirestopper3 Jean Marie Le Pen
@RandallFlagg Stephen King
@GIN1138 Nigel Farage
@ukpaul Alex Jones
@MaxPB Ruth Bader Ginsburg
@rcs1000 rsc1000
@another_richard Prunella Scales
@viewcode Bob Dole
Apart from the cynics favouring the actuarial odds I'd say the favs are RochdalePioneers and GIN1138. Chapeau to rcs1000 and Philip_Thompson for amusing choices.
The whole subject of zinc.
Any testing should first be allocated to NHS employees.
You do know Nicola is part of Cobra and is involved in the decision making and endorses the governments position based on the scientific advise
You have a beef with most everyone but in the end we all need to give the politicians and advisors the space to deal with this
No one and no country has a single solution to this crisis
VICE on HBO looks at factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and the efforts made by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner, and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to save the United States from an economic collapse. The feature-length documentary explores the challenges these men faced, as well as the consequences of their decisions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QozGSS7QY_U
He was crap and made a crisis worse than it should have been. "No boom and bust", my arse.
And they were really busy.
This is what wishy-washy messaging gets you.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/18310401.carphone-warehouse-close-stores-across-north-east/
That's 2900 staff and 531 stores..
A suggestion I have is that government regulations are eased.
For instance HMRC automatically dishes out fines and warnings if some forms are not submitted on time - that might not be possible for some people in the upcoming months.
Likewise some people might have trouble getting their car's MOT done on time.
The process of changing habits will be very quick and a lot better than mandating them with police arresting people and even sending them to jail
It is a policy option but it is sensible to keep it in the locker and to be honest I have enough faith in the people to act responsibly without police dictat
Looks like the answer is you don't need schools functioning as schools? You need them as child care? Maybe summer club come early? Time to get out the box and creative?
What has experience taught us about why it took off in Italy but not Greece? Why did it not spread from Wuhan into rest of China? Why Iran but not India?
Reality is that its too complex to draw such firm conclusions about which national policies have worked and which havent, even before you factor in each country being different. UK social distancing was clearly different before to Italy, Spain and France.
We like to think we know more than we really do.
Soaps are filmed about six weeks in advance iirc.
I suspect they wont feature it and indeed may not film at all. This raises the question of the public morale.