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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Events, events – how even a government with a big majority can
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Events, events – how even a government with a big majority can be knocked off course
Who can now remember that far off time – those few weeks between the election and Xmas – when it seemed as if the agonies of the previous three years were finally over? For good or ill, there was a government with a majority, Brexit (at least the departure) would no longer agonise the country (at least not quite so painfully and visibly), Corbyn was on his way out and there was the interesting spectacle of seeing how the Tories would reward their new Northern voters to look forward to. It seemed as if more normal political events were on their way.
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1. Gym noticeably quieter this morning with fewer pensioners.
2. Roads noticeably quieter this morning. Makes life easier for those of us who need to work not from home
3. Talk up thread about interest rates and liquidity. They are going to have to implement a debt holiday. Lower interest rates does nothing if your business is drying up as people suspend their normal operations.
You can keep going with a lower income - cut your outgoings! For both people and businesses a lot of outgoings are debt - mortgage, loans, capex etc. These aircraft that are about to be parked up won't be owned outright by the airlines. Most businesses rent, most people rent or pay a mortgage, then we have loans for so many things.
If incomes are to drop through the floor then to avoid mass personal and business bankruptcy we need a debt holiday. Let the remaining liquid cash in circulation keep circulating not be repaid to the banks. Which means the government step in, float the banks off the rocks in exchange for a moratorium on all lending repayments until this is all over.
Whats more this needs to happen worldwide. Big businesses are global, smaller businesses buy global. We can lock down our physical borders but the electronic movement of money is unaffected. Something that Bozza could suggest at the G7 whilst looking at that flying pig out the window...
Interesting that despite posting thousands of comments, HYUFD still doesn't know what "free movement" means in the context of EU UK negotiations.
I know Airbus are seeing order cancellations and lots of worried bosses
Nothing is going to be the same post covid 19 including the EU
All we need now is for the newspapers to print on softer paper. My granny never used toilet roll, she made do with the Daily Express cut into squares. Mind you, she never had an inside toilet and people were less fussy then. She died of pneumonia at the age of 72, but people did then.
I'm close to her age now, but I had the advantage of a healthier life. With no real co-morbidity, an arthritic knee doesn't really count.
This time next year, I fully expect to be here with only the odd friend missing but at my age that's becoming normal. My risks are low. The health service will have been over-worked but will do a grand job - as usual.
As has been stated down-thread, it's becoming boring now. The twitter experts itrritate but some people will always want to impress.
Boris has impressed me. It may be the logical thing to do, but my view of politicians is uniformily low anyway. Of course ... if he closes the pubs ...
Change is coming.
The EU are facing enormous strains as nations fight to defend their own economies unilaterally
Loo roll tubes are perfect for planting sweet pea seedlings, which have long roots. So plant your seeds then when they have one or two leaves and are seedlings fill your empty loo roll tubes with soil and transfer your seedlings. As soon as they grow into healthy young plants then you can transfer them outside or into a pot.
Choose a variety that is scented and remember to pick the flowers as soon as they appear - for vases in the home. That way the plant won’t turn to seed and you’ll have beautiful flowers all summer long.
Men lost out on annuities (paid the same per year as women despite living shorter lives, which used to mean more per year for a total the same), women lost out on car insurance because their better safety average didn't count.
It's quite special to argue it's ageist to try and stop the elderly from being killed by disease.
So the message should not simply focus on age but also on those with health conditions which put them at higher risk, regardless of age.
For example, if the UK government nationalises IAG (which is a Spanish company) then it could lose its rights for domestic EU travel with Iberia. Which would not be good.
But nationalising BA would undermine the entire business model for IAG and probably bankrupt Iberia.
There may well be stresses that push the EU to the limit from individual national interests, conversely there might be a safety in numbers element too as the rebuilding begins.
They decided to close the schools here on Friday, it took until yesterday to decide to close the brothels...
Don’t go for a walk unless exercising the dog
Don’t meet up with friends even on own property
Don’t call in on neighbours
No sporting activities, you can ride your bike to the shops which are open but not for exercise
No birthday parties
No funeral wakes
199 fines and one arrest in Madrid yesterday for breaking lockdown.
Still not sure who can work and who can not
There is no alternative let’s hope the summer comes early.
"t's quite special to argue it's ageist to try and stop the elderly from being killed by disease. "
He's a politician, he just can't stop himself.
Keeping the pubs open will help with herd immunity. For the oldies with other problems, they may become isolated, but at least that could shorten the time scale. Who knows? The ability to predict is the cornerstone of science certainty, but with coronavirus, there's bound to be an element of guesswork.
And moreover, businesses head into this fundamentally “healthy” (ie, were perfectly able to keep going under previous assumptions).
What is happening is a catastrophic collapse of demand, && and (labour, investment) supply at the same time.
Time to find out if the zero growth Green types have a point.
That was always the problem with newspapers. You need heavy duty plumbing. Hence my plea for softer paper.
*Everyone* should be staying away from gyms right now. They are an almost perfect vector location
Agree that there are strategic industries that will have to be kept running though, BAe and RR amongst them.
I'm also following a Formula 1 forum, where people are making the point that if the government need a bunch of stuff (ventilators etc) making quickly, there's plenty of hi-tech engineering firms in the UK that could step up if required.
Exercise will keep me sane.
A 50 year old with COPD needs to be extra careful. If the message is all about 70 year olds then the risk is not being well communicated.
However, someone smarter than me on r/neoliberal points out: So that argues for Kamala Harris or Stacey Abrams, this person also goes on to suggest Florida Congresswoman Val Demings.
Despite the size of the falls so far, with a flow of bad medical and bad economic news almost nailed on, I'd expect we'll see further falls. The turnround, which may come quite quickly, is likely on news of a medical vaccine or cure .
Govt provides helicopter money of median wage to every adult in the UK
Govt legislates to allow companies to suspend salaries for this period on condition that employees are not expected to work.
Govt also legislates to allow employees of non essential firms to choose not to work and not be paid salary during this period, whilst protecting their right to return afterwards.
If both employer and employee want to be carry on, then employee gets salary plus helicopter money.
Scenario 1: You lockdown earlier when 0.1% of the population have/had the virus.
Scenario 2: You lockdown later when 1% of the population have/had the virus.
In both cases you have 10 or so days where cases rise and then fall to a more manageable level.
As I see it delaying just gets you to the same point eventually, but at a higher cost in terms of sickness and lives.
Yes more people will (hopefully) have immunity at that point, but there is still 99% of the population left to infect, so I don't see how it reduces a second wave by much.
To get enough people immune to slow the spread of the virus, this process would have to be repeated many times over (50 maybe?). I don't think this is the long term government policy.
The only advantage with Scenario 2 I can understand is that people might be better prepared to change their behaviour long term as we'll be seeing a lot more deaths and hope to eventually get the infection rate under 1 that way.
People can only - will only - do the best they can given their circumstances. If the government wants them to do something which will harm them financially they need to provide compensation. An interest free loan is no bloody use if you have no job and no means of paying it back. It’s the debt which is the problem not the interest on it. The same applies to businesses.
That day may be quite soon now.
"In the baseline examinations, subjects were found to have on average 2-3 diseases. During the follow-up the number of diseases and the proportion of people with co-morbidity increased in both age groups. Both men and women had on average 1-2 symptoms that caused them much trouble, and the number of such symptoms increased to some extent during the follow-up."
Morbidity and disability in 75- and 80-year-old men and women. A five-year follow-up.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9241702
You are missing that the virus is spreading all the time, and wont stop during a lockdown. And also that, if we succeed in keeping the elderly and vulnerable mostly out of harms way, the rate of spread could be quicker than in your estimates without overwhelming health services.
Every % of the population with immunity slows its subsequent spread. And is also a chunk of people who can resume economic activity.
"Deaths outside China have risen to 3,241, while there have been 3,208 deaths in China."
Oh, the wrong experts...
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/15/trumps-florida-sanctuary-coronavirus-130787
The streets are quieter than normal. This is the first time I've thought it's looked quiet out there. Spoke to my (lovely) 80 year old neighbour Tony when I got back. He's very concerned because of his bad chest.
*A&E was okay yesterday. He was in and out within a couple of hours. No signs of any virus-related drama at the hospital. Yet.
Plus a few fines publicised in the newspapers - as Spain is doing - will encourage the others.