I suspect this will be my only post before I get banned again (please dont) . I just thought I would give an update on two hospitals in Hampshire where my wife and daughter are nurses. They are as quiet as they have ever been. There are hundreds of empty beds. As an example my daughter looks after 12 beds on her ward, yesterday 8 of them were empty. She said that walking round the hospital it is eerie how quiet it is. These are two major hospitals and neither has a Covid 19 patient.
I am coming round to the idea that UK - EU transition should be extended for at least another 12 months and at that time a very different EU could be in the making. It does not make sense to no deal in this crisis.
Why are you hanging on this notion that the Coronavirus crisis will somehow lead to the end of the EU as we know it? Is there the slightest shred of evidence that its member states are demanding anything of the kind?
They're probably being careful but it's high risk. I'd say avoid if possible, and if you have to go either make it asap, before the number of covid19 cases grows too much, or postpone it as far as possible to give everyone a chance to work out what the common threat vectors are and how to avoid them.
Hope it works out, May the odds be ever in your favour
Do Barbers / Hairdressers come second to dentists in this respect?
I suspect this will be my only post before I get banned again (please dont) . I just thought I would give an update on two hospitals in Hampshire where my wife and daughter are nurses. They are as quiet as they have ever been. There are hundreds of empty beds. As an example my daughter looks after 12 beds on her ward, yesterday 8 of them were empty. She said that walking round the hospital it is eerie how quiet it is. These are two major hospitals and neither has a Covid 19 patient.
Don't come on here with your hysterical nonsense please we have enough of that from some of the other contributors.
What's the deadpool? Who succumbs in a perfect world?
Just guess at the sleb you think will succumb to Wuflu first. The winner will be lauded until our voices are hoarse while the losers will be derided with language characterised by violent sexual imagery. Imagine coming last...
I am coming round to the idea that UK - EU transition should be extended for at least another 12 months and at that time a very different EU could be in the making. It does not make sense to no deal in this crisis.
Alternative view would be that if we are going to ever no deal, this is probably the best time. The damage from shutting down your economy is obviously less if the economy is already shut down.
Amazingly Brexit really is a second order problem now, it matters much less than the govt response to the economic problems now let alone the response to the health problems.
Macron giving another announcement tonight at 8pm, almost certainly he will announce total confinement. Idiots have been out and about picnicking in the parks as if it was a Bank Holiday and not a quarantine.
That’s kind of ok if it’s solo/in couples and not mixing with others.
I am coming round to the idea that UK - EU transition should be extended for at least another 12 months and at that time a very different EU could be in the making. It does not make sense to no deal in this crisis.
Why are you hanging on this notion that the Coronavirus crisis will somehow lead to the end of the EU as we know it? Is there the slightest shred of evidence that its member states are demanding anything of the kind?
For all that I am opposed to the EU I agree with this. I think it might change the EU in the medium to long term but I certainly don't think it is an existential threat to the organisation.
What's the deadpool? Who succumbs in a perfect world?
Just guess at the sleb you think will succumb to Wuflu first. The winner will be lauded until our voices are hoarse while the losers will be derided with language characterised by violent sexual imagery. Imagine coming last...
What's the deadpool? Who succumbs in a perfect world?
Just guess at the sleb you think will succumb to Wuflu first. The winner will be lauded until our voices are hoarse while the losers will be derided with language characterised by violent sexual imagery. Imagine coming last...
S K Tremayne has to be at risk, I believe he's already caught it three times.
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
Macron giving another announcement tonight at 8pm, almost certainly he will announce total confinement. Idiots have been out and about picnicking in the parks as if it was a Bank Holiday and not a quarantine.
So what? Provided I picnic in the park only with the family I'd have been cooped up with anyway, what difference does it make? But yes, it does look like Macron will close the parks, at least in Paris, soon.
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease?
I am afraid I don't quite understand the timing aspect of locking things down here. Maybe I've missed something.
Scenario 1: You lockdown earlier when 0.1% of the population have/had the virus. Scenario 2: You lockdown later when 1% of the population have/had the virus.
In both cases you have 10 or so days where cases rise and then fall to a more manageable level.
As I see it delaying just gets you to the same point eventually, but at a higher cost in terms of sickness and lives. Yes more people will (hopefully) have immunity at that point, but there is still 99% of the population left to infect, so I don't see how it reduces a second wave by much.
To get enough people immune to slow the spread of the virus, this process would have to be repeated many times over (50 maybe?). I don't think this is the long term government policy.
The only advantage with Scenario 2 I can understand is that people might be better prepared to change their behaviour long term as we'll be seeing a lot more deaths and hope to eventually get the infection rate under 1 that way.
You don't seem to have a better option.
You are missing that the virus is spreading all the time, and wont stop during a lockdown. And also that, if we succeed in keeping the elderly and vulnerable mostly out of harms way, the rate of spread could be quicker than in your estimates without overwhelming health services.
Every % of the population with immunity slows its subsequent spread. And is also a chunk of people who can resume economic activity.
If we aren't doing mass testing of the population then we won't know who the 1% of people are who can return to work.
The only solution I can think of is mass lockdown of all but necessary activity until the virus is eliminated.
Just guess at the sleb you think will succumb to Wuflu first. The winner will be lauded until our voices are hoarse while the losers will be derided with language characterised by violent sexual imagery. Imagine coming last...
Ah right. Not who you want to but who think will without in any way wishing it. Yes, I can do that. That's in impeccable taste.
Fucking hell. There are no Sainbury's deliveries in my area available at all. For the three week window they allow.
I am housebound due to caring responsibilities.
Selfish bastards who are fit and well are taking up slots needed by vulnerable.
It's absolutely ridiculous. I just got back from the giant Sainsbury's in Camden people have gone completely insane. I just needed to get a few things now that I'm back in the country, there were idiots buying 10 packs of loo roll and 20 bags of pasta etc...
I can't understand why the supermarkets are letting people buy that many items. They should be limiting toilet rolls to 2 per person etc.
If people can't control themselves then it's up to the sellers to limit what people can buy.
What's the deadpool? Who succumbs in a perfect world?
Just guess at the sleb you think will succumb to Wuflu first. The winner will be lauded until our voices are hoarse while the losers will be derided with language characterised by violent sexual imagery. Imagine coming last...
Betting advice, please. I'm looking to bet on the prospects of a Government of National Unity in the next month or two, what would be the best way?
The prospects of that are absolutely zero I'd have thought.
No chance but you could ask for a price from one of the major bookmakers.
To answer the original question, probably a series of judiciously placed bets on next holders of various cabinet positions (eg Starmer as next Home Sec) but you might as well just set fire to the money and save yourself a trip out of doors.
Just guess at the sleb you think will succumb to Wuflu first. The winner will be lauded until our voices are hoarse while the losers will be derided with language characterised by violent sexual imagery. Imagine coming last...
Ah right. Not who you want to but who think will without in any way wishing it. Yes, I can do that. That's in impeccable taste.
The Queen.
London Bridge is down will be quite remarkable during this. A lot of plans will be out of the window as the mourning wouldn't match self-isolation.
I suspect this will be my only post before I get banned again (please dont) . I just thought I would give an update on two hospitals in Hampshire where my wife and daughter are nurses. They are as quiet as they have ever been. There are hundreds of empty beds. As an example my daughter looks after 12 beds on her ward, yesterday 8 of them were empty. She said that walking round the hospital it is eerie how quiet it is. These are two major hospitals and neither has a Covid 19 patient.
I am not surprised at that. I see this period as the 1940 phoney war. The calm before the storm.
Also, given the experience in places like Italy and China, it seems entirely possible that there will be some areas which, through luck or judgement, will escape relatively unscathed.
By the way I hope you are not banned. Useful first post.
Fucking hell. There are no Sainbury's deliveries in my area available at all. For the three week window they allow.
I am housebound due to caring responsibilities.
Selfish bastards who are fit and well are taking up slots needed by vulnerable.
It's absolutely ridiculous. I just got back from the giant Sainsbury's in Camden people have gone completely insane. I just needed to get a few things now that I'm back in the country, there were idiots buying 10 packs of loo roll and 20 bags of pasta etc...
They've obviously been listenting to their neighbour SeanT
I suspect this will be my only post before I get banned again (please dont) . I just thought I would give an update on two hospitals in Hampshire where my wife and daughter are nurses. They are as quiet as they have ever been. There are hundreds of empty beds. As an example my daughter looks after 12 beds on her ward, yesterday 8 of them were empty. She said that walking round the hospital it is eerie how quiet it is. These are two major hospitals and neither has a Covid 19 patient.
I am not surprised at that. I see this period as the 1940 phoney war. The calm before the storm.
Also, given the experience in places like Italy and China, it seems entirely possible that there will be some areas which, through luck or judgement, will escape relatively unscathed.
By the way I hope you are not banned. Useful first post.
People are not going to A & E so no beds taking up that way. All GP appts are being cancelled so no referrals. Most people with Covid 19 are just staying at home and getting better.
I would suggest that people look up the Swine Flu epidemic in the UK in 2009 on wikipedia. There were regulalrly over 60,000 reported cases in the UK per week and hundreds of deaths yet the world carried on.
Ordinarily someone of his age would be banned - but I'm inclined to think that he should be allowed on the basis that you only win if he snuffs it and is confirmed as having had the virus.
My view on the gym is that I'll stop going to the gym when I stop catching trains into central London and sharing a large office with hundreds of other people who have done exactly the same thing.
That day may be quite soon now.
It’s baffling that some companies are still calling their staff into the office. Home working should be near ubiquitous by now, for those that are able.
We're an SMT Food Manufacturer. We have just had a Senior Management Team meeting to discuss this very issue. We can look at banning all non-essential visitors, we can try and keep the two shift personnel completely separate. We can then split the supervisors / engineers across the two shifts and split the SMT & office department staff into split shifts.
Whatever we do, people will be coming to work. Its fine saying "work from home". We can't. A lot of people can't.
Yes, and a lot of people can. I'm simply saying that those that can, should.
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
No. The damage is being caused entirely by the disease at this point. Look to the rest of the world to see that.
Whether in the longer term one 'cure' will prove to be worse than another for medical outcomes and economy is unknown.
But those two outcomes - fewer deaths or reducing damage to the economy - may turn out to be mutually exclusive.
I am coming round to the idea that UK - EU transition should be extended for at least another 12 months and at that time a very different EU could be in the making. It does not make sense to no deal in this crisis.
Why are you hanging on this notion that the Coronavirus crisis will somehow lead to the end of the EU as we know it? Is there the slightest shred of evidence that its member states are demanding anything of the kind?
This crisis will have a profound effect on the EU and the individual states. Neither of us can know how this shakes out but it is not unreasonable to assume that the EU will be in a very different place in the next 12 months.
Indeed it is irrational to assume 'nothing has changed'
And I am saying it is not in the UK and EU interests to no deal and an extension will provide an opportunity for both sides to reflect on the economic carnage this crisis will cause and hopefully agree a beneficial solution to both parties that is not evident at present, nor can it be
Ordinarily someone of his age would be banned - but I'm inclined to think that he should be allowed on the basis that you only win if he snuffs it and is confirmed as having had the virus.
Would a government directed suspension of all household mortgages and rents for three months (renewable basis) work? It would need to be in the emergency legislation with penalties for rogue landlords.
My anger at some media personalities, pundits and twitter keyboard agitators who are panic mongering and misrepresenting and undermining the official campaign for partisan reasons is rising to boiling point.
My view on the gym is that I'll stop going to the gym when I stop catching trains into central London and sharing a large office with hundreds of other people who have done exactly the same thing.
That day may be quite soon now.
It’s baffling that some companies are still calling their staff into the office. Home working should be near ubiquitous by now, for those that are able.
In my team we are allowing staff to work from home as they wish. However, some clients still want meetings and I'm going to continue coming in while there is still some demand there.
Some people prefer working in the office to working from home.
Sod people's preferences.
My preference is to spend Saturday afternoons in the pub.
8,744 cases in the country (a rise of over 1,000 cases for two successive days) 3,215 hospitalised 4675 in Madrid 410 require an ICU ventilator 297 deaths 521 recoveries
I am coming round to the idea that UK - EU transition should be extended for at least another 12 months and at that time a very different EU could be in the making. It does not make sense to no deal in this crisis.
Why are you hanging on this notion that the Coronavirus crisis will somehow lead to the end of the EU as we know it? Is there the slightest shred of evidence that its member states are demanding anything of the kind?
Leavers always seem to be looking for some scenario where the EU collapses. The fact that a crisis like this might make people consider the benefits of greater co-operation through international organisations doesn't seem to occur to them.
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease?
Halt all debt payment. This week.
That would bankrupt a lot of businesses. Cash flow is what determines if a business lives or dies
Fucking hell. There are no Sainbury's deliveries in my area available at all. For the three week window they allow.
I am housebound due to caring responsibilities.
Selfish bastards who are fit and well are taking up slots needed by vulnerable.
It's absolutely ridiculous. I just got back from the giant Sainsbury's in Camden people have gone completely insane. I just needed to get a few things now that I'm back in the country, there were idiots buying 10 packs of loo roll and 20 bags of pasta etc...
I can't understand why the supermarkets are letting people buy that many items. They should be limiting toilet rolls to 2 per person etc.
If people can't control themselves then it's up to the sellers to limit what people can buy.
Money is money. The supermarkets hear the sound of tills going "Kerr-ching". What's not to like?
I am afraid I don't quite understand the timing aspect of locking things down here. Maybe I've missed something.
Scenario 1: You lockdown earlier when 0.1% of the population have/had the virus. Scenario 2: You lockdown later when 1% of the population have/had the virus.
In both cases you have 10 or so days where cases rise and then fall to a more manageable level.
As I see it delaying just gets you to the same point eventually, but at a higher cost in terms of sickness and lives. Yes more people will (hopefully) have immunity at that point, but there is still 99% of the population left to infect, so I don't see how it reduces a second wave by much.
To get enough people immune to slow the spread of the virus, this process would have to be repeated many times over (50 maybe?). I don't think this is the long term government policy.
The only advantage with Scenario 2 I can understand is that people might be better prepared to change their behaviour long term as we'll be seeing a lot more deaths and hope to eventually get the infection rate under 1 that way.
You don't seem to have a better option.
You are missing that the virus is spreading all the time, and wont stop during a lockdown. And also that, if we succeed in keeping the elderly and vulnerable mostly out of harms way, the rate of spread could be quicker than in your estimates without overwhelming health services.
Every % of the population with immunity slows its subsequent spread. And is also a chunk of people who can resume economic activity.
If we aren't doing mass testing of the population then we won't know who the 1% of people are who can return to work.
The only solution I can think of is mass lockdown of all but necessary activity until the virus is eliminated.
And the fact that it wouldn't work, since the virus wont go away by itself unless the entire world locked itself down for several weeks at the same time and not one person accidentally passed on the virus by doing something they shouldn't, doesn't make you think again?
Macron giving another announcement tonight at 8pm, almost certainly he will announce total confinement. Idiots have been out and about picnicking in the parks as if it was a Bank Holiday and not a quarantine.
So what? Provided I picnic in the park only with the family I'd have been cooped up with anyway, what difference does it make? But yes, it does look like Macron will close the parks, at least in Paris, soon.
The government advice was already to avoid any unnecessary trips outside. Additionally many were young groups of friends rather than families. No-one likes being cooped up inside but it's the least people can do when others are risking their lives on the front lines trying to deal with this in hospitals.
Fucking hell. There are no Sainbury's deliveries in my area available at all. For the three week window they allow.
I am housebound due to caring responsibilities.
Selfish bastards who are fit and well are taking up slots needed by vulnerable.
It's absolutely ridiculous. I just got back from the giant Sainsbury's in Camden people have gone completely insane. I just needed to get a few things now that I'm back in the country, there were idiots buying 10 packs of loo roll and 20 bags of pasta etc...
I can't understand why the supermarkets are letting people buy that many items. They should be limiting toilet rolls to 2 per person etc.
If people can't control themselves then it's up to the sellers to limit what people can buy.
Money is money. The supermarkets hear the sound of tills going "Kerr-ching". What's not to like?
Well they'll still go Kerr-ching" anyway it's just that the goods will be spread out more evenly.
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease?
Halt all debt payment. This week.
That would bankrupt a lot of businesses. Cash flow is what determines if a business lives or dies
I read the The Mayor of New York is closing down the city's bars and restaurants.
One of the best things about the big apple is its bars and restaurants.
The damage to all kinds of industries and jobs will be colossal. Tourism. What tourism?
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
More than considering, it is done, for April and May at least.
8,744 cases in the country (a rise of over 1,000 cases for two successive days) 3,215 hospitalised 4675 in Madrid 410 require an ICU ventilator 297 deaths 521 recoveries
On day 2 of the lockdown here in Almeria - Europe's sunniest and driest corner - we're in a tiny village near Mojacar where it's pretty well always ultra quiet. Shopping today was very smooth and orderly at Mercadona. I cancelled my car service as not sure it is allowed atm. Already we've been told the lockdown will be extended beyond the current 2 weeks. Easy enough for me as I don't have to work and we have internet TV but it's gonna get pretty boring pretty soon and must be hell for families.
Fucking hell. There are no Sainbury's deliveries in my area available at all. For the three week window they allow.
I am housebound due to caring responsibilities.
Selfish bastards who are fit and well are taking up slots needed by vulnerable.
It's absolutely ridiculous. I just got back from the giant Sainsbury's in Camden people have gone completely insane. I just needed to get a few things now that I'm back in the country, there were idiots buying 10 packs of loo roll and 20 bags of pasta etc...
I can't understand why the supermarkets are letting people buy that many items. They should be limiting toilet rolls to 2 per person etc.
If people can't control themselves then it's up to the sellers to limit what people can buy.
Money is money. The supermarkets hear the sound of tills going "Kerr-ching". What's not to like?
Peaks and troughs are not good though. Steady increased business is what they want. Not their shop shelves emptying and punters going elsewhere for their other groceries.
I am coming round to the idea that UK - EU transition should be extended for at least another 12 months and at that time a very different EU could be in the making. It does not make sense to no deal in this crisis.
Why are you hanging on this notion that the Coronavirus crisis will somehow lead to the end of the EU as we know it? Is there the slightest shred of evidence that its member states are demanding anything of the kind?
Leavers always seem to be looking for some scenario where the EU collapses. The fact that a crisis like this might make people consider the benefits of greater co-operation through international organisations doesn't seem to occur to them.
I am very much considering that. What I'm observing is the EU doing sod all, because it's too inflexible and needs to consult the Wallonian Parliament before it can draw up the terms of reference for a plan of action to select the committee that will decide on the options that it will consider for a draft text of possible next steps.
Fucking hell. There are no Sainbury's deliveries in my area available at all. For the three week window they allow.
I am housebound due to caring responsibilities.
Selfish bastards who are fit and well are taking up slots needed by vulnerable.
It's absolutely ridiculous. I just got back from the giant Sainsbury's in Camden people have gone completely insane. I just needed to get a few things now that I'm back in the country, there were idiots buying 10 packs of loo roll and 20 bags of pasta etc...
I can't understand why the supermarkets are letting people buy that many items. They should be limiting toilet rolls to 2 per person etc.
If people can't control themselves then it's up to the sellers to limit what people can buy.
Money is money. The supermarkets hear the sound of tills going "Kerr-ching". What's not to like?
Except if people begin to think that places are out of stock they won't go there. Much better business practice to give fewer items to fewer people.
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
More than considering, it is done, for April and May at least.
I'm not sure I see how governments can go on like this. I really don't.
At some juncture they are going to have to reverse their policies or face a total seizure of the system. That will cause far more misery and death than Corona ever could.
The private sector economy provides for everybody. It must keep going at all costs. The spice must flow.
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
More than considering, it is done, for April and May at least.
I would suggest that this time, if governments take a bank route rather than a per citizen income route, there may be a furious public reaction and public disorder in many countries. Countries may have no choice but to follow the economically wisest and socially safest route. The bank bailouts and QE to financial institutions damaged social cohesion and democratic legitimacy, while having poor long-term results for economies beyond staving off emergency. Only America emerged relatively well among the west, with its stimulus programme. There may be no choice this time.
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
No. The damage is being caused entirely by the disease at this point. Look to the rest of the world to see that.
Whether in the longer term one 'cure' will prove to be worse than another for medical outcomes and economy is unknown.
But those two outcomes - fewer deaths or reducing damage to the economy - may turn out to be mutually exclusive.
Governments face a brutal but unavoidable choice: either accept an economic depression (hopefully only of around a year's duration) as you shut down most economic activity to halt the disease's spread until a vaccine or effective antivirals are available, or accept that tens, maybe hundreds of thousands, maybe a million plus, people will die (in a country the size of the UK) and the health system will be utterly overwhelmed. However much you think the cost-benefit analysis favours the second path, in reality no government will follow it. And so economic depression is in my view unavoidable.
Fucking hell. There are no Sainbury's deliveries in my area available at all. For the three week window they allow.
I am housebound due to caring responsibilities.
Selfish bastards who are fit and well are taking up slots needed by vulnerable.
It's absolutely ridiculous. I just got back from the giant Sainsbury's in Camden people have gone completely insane. I just needed to get a few things now that I'm back in the country, there were idiots buying 10 packs of loo roll and 20 bags of pasta etc...
I can't understand why the supermarkets are letting people buy that many items. They should be limiting toilet rolls to 2 per person etc.
If people can't control themselves then it's up to the sellers to limit what people can buy.
Money is money. The supermarkets hear the sound of tills going "Kerr-ching". What's not to like?
Well they'll still go Kerr-ching" anyway it's just that the goods will be spread out more evenly.
I'm not convinced. Many seem to be buying more stuff than they will need in a lifetime. I mean kids will be paying inheritance tax on toilet rolls and rice.
Why are people doing this? if they keep stocking the shelves at what point do people come to the conclusion that they have enough?
What's the deadpool? Who succumbs in a perfect world?
Just guess at the sleb you think will succumb to Wuflu first. The winner will be lauded until our voices are hoarse while the losers will be derided with language characterised by violent sexual imagery. Imagine coming last...
A very bad taste competition.... so I'm in!
I pick Kieth Richards. He's been living on borrowed time since before GCSEs were introduced.
The numbers of passengers travelling on London’s Tube network has fallen by nearly a fifth, while the numbers on buses are down 10%, compared to the same time last year, according to a statement by Transport for London.
It is significant that the Tube numbers are down more than the buses, as my colleague Jim Waterson, the Guardian media editor, pointed out as he sent in this information.
Commuters travelling on the Tube, which is more expensive and connects the city centre to the suburbs, tend to be drawn from higher socio-economic groups, who tend to work white-collar jobs and are more able to work from home.
We are doing better than Italy, but not by as much as the tweet would suggest
As I see it - there has been a delay achieved of 2 weeks, which has taken us further away from the tail end of the winter NHS stress.
Not often mentioned in Italy UK comparisons, is that Italy's concentration of cases has been in one part of the country, whilst the UK is widespread - which means that the load on the NHS is also widespread and may be a significant help in preventing collapse of services,
What's the deadpool? Who succumbs in a perfect world?
Just guess at the sleb you think will succumb to Wuflu first. The winner will be lauded until our voices are hoarse while the losers will be derided with language characterised by violent sexual imagery. Imagine coming last...
A very bad taste competition.... so I'm in!
I pick Kieth Richards. He's been living on borrowed time since before GCSEs were introduced.
Just led the Monday morning team meeting. About 30 of us, all now WFH.
Someone noted the “govt and WHO don’t seem to agree”. General confusion about what the government’s policy is and what’s happening next.
Govt comms have failed so far.
Not sure it has failed. It’s just there are lots of shouty voices out there trying to drown out government’s communications. They’ve definitely had a bad weekend. Sounds like Cummings stirring and damaging what is in essence a good well thought through, counter intuitive but well explained strategy.
The rabble rousers are out there though. People like John Ashton. Utterly shocking. But the 24k cranks like home are easy to spot. Allowing an alistair Campbell style assault on the truth by picking up a throwaway flaw in the argument as opened the gates to the sewers.
The herd immunity is an aspirational outcome in the long term. It’s not the purpose of the current policy. Flatten the curve is. Stop the nhs been overwhelmed at the peak points, invoke isolation when they will have maximum impact and remember that people will not keep to them for prolonged periods.
We will see what Kier Starmer is made of with his response to this. So far more mature politicians like Burnham have stuck with but expressed caution.
Fucking hell. There are no Sainbury's deliveries in my area available at all. For the three week window they allow.
I am housebound due to caring responsibilities.
Selfish bastards who are fit and well are taking up slots needed by vulnerable.
It's absolutely ridiculous. I just got back from the giant Sainsbury's in Camden people have gone completely insane. I just needed to get a few things now that I'm back in the country, there were idiots buying 10 packs of loo roll and 20 bags of pasta etc...
I can't understand why the supermarkets are letting people buy that many items. They should be limiting toilet rolls to 2 per person etc.
If people can't control themselves then it's up to the sellers to limit what people can buy.
Money is money. The supermarkets hear the sound of tills going "Kerr-ching". What's not to like?
Well they'll still go Kerr-ching" anyway it's just that the goods will be spread out more evenly.
Many seem to be buying more stuff than they will need in a lifetime. I mean kids will be paying inheritance tax on toilet rolls and rice.
How much of this stuff is being put on ebay at double the price?
Fucking hell. There are no Sainbury's deliveries in my area available at all. For the three week window they allow.
I am housebound due to caring responsibilities.
Selfish bastards who are fit and well are taking up slots needed by vulnerable.
It's absolutely ridiculous. I just got back from the giant Sainsbury's in Camden people have gone completely insane. I just needed to get a few things now that I'm back in the country, there were idiots buying 10 packs of loo roll and 20 bags of pasta etc...
I can't understand why the supermarkets are letting people buy that many items. They should be limiting toilet rolls to 2 per person etc.
If people can't control themselves then it's up to the sellers to limit what people can buy.
Money is money. The supermarkets hear the sound of tills going "Kerr-ching". What's not to like?
Except if people begin to think that places are out of stock they won't go there. Much better business practice to give fewer items to fewer people.
At least one of the item on my online Tesco order was restricted to no more than two: tinned peas.
I didn't bother looking at toilet rolls and we have plenty (my wife has been hoarding them since forever).
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
No. The damage is being caused entirely by the disease at this point. Look to the rest of the world to see that.
Whether in the longer term one 'cure' will prove to be worse than another for medical outcomes and economy is unknown.
But those two outcomes - fewer deaths or reducing damage to the economy - may turn out to be mutually exclusive.
Governments face a brutal but unavoidable choice: either accept an economic depression (hopefully only of around a year's duration) as you shut down most economic activity to halt the disease's spread until a vaccine or effective antivirals are available, or accept that tens, maybe hundreds of thousands, maybe a million plus, people will die (in a country the size of the UK) and the health system will be utterly overwhelmed. However much you think the cost-benefit analysis favours the second path, in reality no government will follow it. And so economic depression is in my view unavoidable.
Japan and South Korea are accepting neither of those things.
There may be some arguments that although it looks like it's working now it won't be sustainable, or that it might work over here but it wouldn't work in Europe, but I wish people would stop talking like these are the only two options.
I suspect this will be my only post before I get banned again (please dont) . I just thought I would give an update on two hospitals in Hampshire where my wife and daughter are nurses. They are as quiet as they have ever been. There are hundreds of empty beds. As an example my daughter looks after 12 beds on her ward, yesterday 8 of them were empty. She said that walking round the hospital it is eerie how quiet it is. These are two major hospitals and neither has a Covid 19 patient.
I am not surprised at that. I see this period as the 1940 phoney war. The calm before the storm.
Also, given the experience in places like Italy and China, it seems entirely possible that there will be some areas which, through luck or judgement, will escape relatively unscathed.
By the way I hope you are not banned. Useful first post.
People are not going to A & E so no beds taking up that way. All GP appts are being cancelled so no referrals. Most people with Covid 19 are just staying at home and getting better.
I would suggest that people look up the Swine Flu epidemic in the UK in 2009 on wikipedia. There were regulalrly over 60,000 reported cases in the UK per week and hundreds of deaths yet the world carried on.
I was at our A & E and out of hours doctors on Saturday night between 12 and 1.00 am and it seemed very quiet and I was seen by the doctor within half an hour
And neither the public or the professionals were wearing face masks other than a child and his parents in the out of hours doctors
I am afraid I don't quite understand the timing aspect of locking things down here. Maybe I've missed something.
Scenario 1: You lockdown earlier when 0.1% of the population have/had the virus. Scenario 2: You lockdown later when 1% of the population have/had the virus.
In both cases you have 10 or so days where cases rise and then fall to a more manageable level.
As I see it delaying just gets you to the same point eventually, but at a higher cost in terms of sickness and lives. Yes more people will (hopefully) have immunity at that point, but there is still 99% of the population left to infect, so I don't see how it reduces a second wave by much.
To get enough people immune to slow the spread of the virus, this process would have to be repeated many times over (50 maybe?). I don't think this is the long term government policy.
The only advantage with Scenario 2 I can understand is that people might be better prepared to change their behaviour long term as we'll be seeing a lot more deaths and hope to eventually get the infection rate under 1 that way.
You don't seem to have a better option.
You are missing that the virus is spreading all the time, and wont stop during a lockdown. And also that, if we succeed in keeping the elderly and vulnerable mostly out of harms way, the rate of spread could be quicker than in your estimates without overwhelming health services.
Every % of the population with immunity slows its subsequent spread. And is also a chunk of people who can resume economic activity.
If we aren't doing mass testing of the population then we won't know who the 1% of people are who can return to work.
The only solution I can think of is mass lockdown of all but necessary activity until the virus is eliminated.
And the fact that it wouldn't work, since the virus wont go away by itself unless the entire world locked itself down for several weeks at the same time and not one person accidentally passed on the virus by doing something they shouldn't, doesn't make you think again?
Mass testing will be available to everyone eventually, so further lockdowns will be able to be targeted much better with far less disruption.
International travellers will need to be screened before being allowed to proceed for a few years.
Fucking hell. There are no Sainbury's deliveries in my area available at all. For the three week window they allow.
I am housebound due to caring responsibilities.
Selfish bastards who are fit and well are taking up slots needed by vulnerable.
It's absolutely ridiculous. I just got back from the giant Sainsbury's in Camden people have gone completely insane. I just needed to get a few things now that I'm back in the country, there were idiots buying 10 packs of loo roll and 20 bags of pasta etc...
I can't understand why the supermarkets are letting people buy that many items. They should be limiting toilet rolls to 2 per person etc.
If people can't control themselves then it's up to the sellers to limit what people can buy.
Money is money. The supermarkets hear the sound of tills going "Kerr-ching". What's not to like?
Except if people begin to think that places are out of stock they won't go there. Much better business practice to give fewer items to fewer people.
The problem is that if people are sufficiently worked up and supermarket staff intervene in their panic shopping, sooner or later tempers will flare and a riot will ensue.
From the supermarket's point of view, it is far safer to let them buy what they want and leave empty shelves out "awaiting the next delivery". They can always top the shelves up on a schedule throughout the day.
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
More than considering, it is done, for April and May at least.
I'm not sure I see how governments can go on like this. I really don't.
At some juncture they are going to have to reverse their policies or face a total seizure of the system. That will cause far more misery and death than Corona ever could.
The private sector economy provides for everybody. It must keep going at all costs. The spice must flow.
'Can't go on like this' needs alternatives that are clear and can be implemented. two things are going on: people are acting like they do in a normal recession; but they are also changing what they want to do - no amount of helicopter money at this moment will save TUI and Easyjet from a downturn. People have stopped wanting certain things at any price and however wealthy.
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
No. The damage is being caused entirely by the disease at this point. Look to the rest of the world to see that.
Whether in the longer term one 'cure' will prove to be worse than another for medical outcomes and economy is unknown.
But those two outcomes - fewer deaths or reducing damage to the economy - may turn out to be mutually exclusive.
Governments face a brutal but unavoidable choice: either accept an economic depression (hopefully only of around a year's duration) as you shut down most economic activity to halt the disease's spread until a vaccine or effective antivirals are available, or accept that tens, maybe hundreds of thousands, maybe a million plus, people will die (in a country the size of the UK) and the health system will be utterly overwhelmed. However much you think the cost-benefit analysis favours the second path, in reality no government will follow it. And so economic depression is in my view unavoidable.
Presumably the best possible outcome is to slow the spread of the disease sufficiently that your health service is constantly operating at full capacity (but not beyond its capacity) so that your population acquires immunity as quickly as possible with the loss of as few lives as possible. Very difficult to achieve in practice though, I imagine!
As politicians wander the deserted streets of their cities, and the demands for handouts from beleaguered industries grow, perhaps they are starting to consider the gargantuan hit to economic activity that their policies are causing.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
More than considering, it is done, for April and May at least.
I would suggest that this time, if governments take a bank route rather than a per citizen income route, there may be a furious public reaction and public disorder in many countries. Countries may have no choice but to follow the economically wisest and socially safest route. The bank bailouts and QE to financial institutions damaged social cohesion and democratic legitimacy, while having poor long-term results for economies beyond staving off emergency. Only America emerged relatively well among the west, with its stimulus programme. There may be no choice this time.
Agree. I think this time Governments will have to go to the Direct 2 Consumer route (D2C) because the impacts of the problem is more at a personal level than 2008/9 and the economy has changed so that there are more people in a precarious working position (self-employed / gig economy).
So I would expect measures that massively favour debt holders - not just holidays on mortgage repayments but also potentially holidays on credit card debt as well (and I think the Government will also mandate the CC companies to reduce the rates they charge as well). Possibly a form of Universal Income. In any event, debt holders will be significant winners, savers big losers.
Hungary is closing its borders tonight. My other half has just got on a flight back from Budapest in the last few minutes, so he's getting out by the skin of his teeth.
Comments
Amazingly Brexit really is a second order problem now, it matters much less than the govt response to the economic problems now let alone the response to the health problems.
As I said be interesting to track numbers in Ireland for example and then the track back of those cases.
2m distance is the same as 200 miles distance.
I read today BA are considering cancelling 75% of flights. That doesnt suggest recession. That suggest depression. an enormous one. Worse than 1930/31. Maybe much worse.
Is it worth it? is the cure causing more damage than the disease? How will governments be able to care for the needy in all sorts of ways if they take a huge hit to tax revenues?
@Dura_Ace David Mitchell
@tlg86 Jeremy Clarkson
@MarqueeMark Polly Toynbee
@SandyRentool Simon Calder
This week.
The only solution I can think of is mass lockdown of all but necessary activity until the virus is eliminated.
The Queen.
If people can't control themselves then it's up to the sellers to limit what people can buy.
About 30 of us, all now WFH.
Someone noted the “govt and WHO don’t seem to agree”. General confusion about what the government’s policy is and what’s happening next.
Govt comms have failed so far.
Also, given the experience in places like Italy and China, it seems entirely possible that there will be some areas which, through luck or judgement, will escape relatively unscathed.
By the way I hope you are not banned. Useful first post.
@Benpointer The Donald, old, unhealthy, pig-ignorant... Ideal candidate imo
How long before there's a backlash?
How long before people start saying they don;t see why they should lose their jpb over a disease the vast majority of people get over quickly?
I would suggest that people look up the Swine Flu epidemic in the UK in 2009 on wikipedia. There were regulalrly over 60,000 reported cases in the UK per week and hundreds of deaths yet the world carried on.
Whether in the longer term one 'cure' will prove to be worse than another for medical outcomes and economy is unknown.
But those two outcomes - fewer deaths or reducing damage to the economy - may turn out to be mutually exclusive.
Indeed it is irrational to assume 'nothing has changed'
And I am saying it is not in the UK and EU interests to no deal and an extension will provide an opportunity for both sides to reflect on the economic carnage this crisis will cause and hopefully agree a beneficial solution to both parties that is not evident at present, nor can it be
The Queen.
Damn see someone else beat me to it.
Okay Prince Charles.
My anger at some media personalities, pundits and twitter keyboard agitators who are panic mongering and misrepresenting and undermining the official campaign for partisan reasons is rising to boiling point.
Hope all keep well and get through this.
Sod people's preferences.
My preference is to spend Saturday afternoons in the pub.
I won't be doing that for a while.
8,744 cases in the country (a rise of over 1,000 cases for two successive days)
3,215 hospitalised
4675 in Madrid
410 require an ICU ventilator
297 deaths
521 recoveries
Leavers always seem to be looking for some scenario where the EU collapses. The fact that a crisis like this might make people consider the benefits of greater co-operation through international organisations doesn't seem to occur to them.
Jezza Corbz.
One of the best things about the big apple is its bars and restaurants.
The damage to all kinds of industries and jobs will be colossal. Tourism. What tourism?
Insane. Insane.
Runners and riders...
@Dura_Ace David Mitchell
@tlg86 Jeremy Clarkson
@MarqueeMark Polly Toynbee
@SandyRentool Simon Calder
@malcolmg Philip Schofield
@kinabula HRH The Queen
@Garethofthevale2 Michael Heseltine
@Philip_Thompson S.K. Tremayne
@RochdalePioneers George R.R. Martin
@Foss Prince Philip
@Benpointer Donald Trump
@Endillion David Attenborough
@nichomar Anne Widdicombe
@Topping Cordelia Gummer
@Martin_Kinsella Roy Hudd
I reckon RochdalePioneers has the fav.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2020/mar/16/roy-hudd-dies-aged-83
But there's always someone worse off than you:
https://twitter.com/AmeliaAdams9/status/1239245995952631808
Yikes!
At some juncture they are going to have to reverse their policies or face a total seizure of the system. That will cause far more misery and death than Corona ever could.
The private sector economy provides for everybody. It must keep going at all costs. The spice must flow.
Why are people doing this? if they keep stocking the shelves at what point do people come to the conclusion that they have enough?
I pick Kieth Richards. He's been living on borrowed time since before GCSEs were introduced.
I have secured a slot from Tesco, who appear not to have been tipped over the edge by all this. It's a few days hence, but not an issue.
Thanks to various PBers who have made offers of help. What a decent community we are.
It is humbling.
@Dura_Ace David Mitchell
@tlg86 Jeremy Clarkson
@MarqueeMark Polly Toynbee
@SandyRentool Simon Calder
@malcolmg Philip Schofield
@kinabula HRH The Queen
@Garethofthevale2 Michael Heseltine
@Philip_Thompson S.K. Tremayne
@RochdalePioneers George R.R. Martin
@Foss Prince Philip
@Benpointer Donald Trump
@Endillion David Attenborough
@nichomar Anne Widdicombe
@Topping Cordelia Gummer
@AramintaMoonbeamQC Jeremy Corbyn
@Beibheirli_C Clint Eastwood
@Richard_Tyndall Prince Charles
@williamglenn Barry Manilow
It is significant that the Tube numbers are down more than the buses, as my colleague Jim Waterson, the Guardian media editor, pointed out as he sent in this information.
Commuters travelling on the Tube, which is more expensive and connects the city centre to the suburbs, tend to be drawn from higher socio-economic groups, who tend to work white-collar jobs and are more able to work from home.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/16/coronavirus-live-updates-us-cdc-events-europe-lockdown-uk-deaths-australia-france-italy-spain-update-latest-news
Owen Jones
Not often mentioned in Italy UK comparisons, is that Italy's concentration of cases has been in one part of the country, whilst the UK is widespread - which means that the load on the NHS is also widespread and may be a significant help in preventing collapse of services,
The rabble rousers are out there though. People like John Ashton. Utterly shocking. But the 24k cranks like home are easy to spot. Allowing an alistair Campbell style assault on the truth by picking up a throwaway flaw in the argument as opened the gates to the sewers.
The herd immunity is an aspirational outcome in the long term. It’s not the purpose of the current policy. Flatten the curve is. Stop the nhs been overwhelmed at the peak points, invoke isolation when they will have maximum impact and remember that people will not keep to them for prolonged periods.
We will see what Kier Starmer is made of with his response to this. So far more mature politicians like Burnham have stuck with but expressed caution.
How much of this stuff is being put on ebay at double the price?
To be fair, I think we are going to have the same problem here. People always seem to think they are the exception and thus it doesn't apply to them.
I didn't bother looking at toilet rolls and we have plenty (my wife has been hoarding them since forever).
I noticed eggs were sold out though.
There may be some arguments that although it looks like it's working now it won't be sustainable, or that it might work over here but it wouldn't work in Europe, but I wish people would stop talking like these are the only two options.
And neither the public or the professionals were wearing face masks other than a child and his parents in the out of hours doctors
International travellers will need to be screened before being allowed to proceed for a few years.
From the supermarket's point of view, it is far safer to let them buy what they want and leave empty shelves out "awaiting the next delivery". They can always top the shelves up on a schedule throughout the day.
So I would expect measures that massively favour debt holders - not just holidays on mortgage repayments but also potentially holidays on credit card debt as well (and I think the Government will also mandate the CC companies to reduce the rates they charge as well). Possibly a form of Universal Income. In any event, debt holders will be significant winners, savers big losers.