Still in Israel. Hoping to fly back to the UK today. Spoke to my wife last night. She’s not feeling well. Thinks it’s just a cold. I hope she’s right. Stay safe everyone and stay at home. Do not be a total dick like me!
Hope she`s OK, SO.
Mrs Stocky is within striking distance of the summit of Kilimanjaro. If Covid-19 has made it up there I`ll let you know.
It will be a determined climber indeed who makes the sumit with coronavirus!
How did you get on isolating your wife on her return from abroad in the shed?
I'm the one who's been wandering Westminster for the past two days.
The capital spending relaxations are possibly even more significant. We might well see a budget today that McDonnell might not have dared. Massive increases in infrastructure spending, large scale provisions for the virus and probably some tax cuts too (ok, McDonnell wouldn't have gone for that).
Something about never waste a good crisis comes to mind.
It was being trailed to the media yesterday as unleashing the largest package of investment (aka spending) since 1955.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
That's not the case. If we had gone into tough measures we might have been able to stave off the worst until May/June when the warmer weather would arrest the spread naturally. Countries like Thailand and Malaysia aren't having this badly.
Then, the hope would be that by the time we reach next winter a vaccine and/or brilliant treatment will be in place.
The Government are shit.
You only stave things off while people are isolated - and staying so for two or three months isn't realistic or achievable.
The latest view seems to be that this virus wont be stopped by the summer, maybe slowed but not by much.
It is most unlikely that a vaccine will be researched, tested and produced in sufficient volumes to be ready by the autumn. And since the EU and US are leading the production, we'll be some way down the queue in any case.
Yeah, because the banks will of course pass that on to borrowers (*rolls eyes*) albeit they will pass it on like fury to savers.
Although it may of course make it slightly cheaper for them to borrow themselves.
If the government was considering subsidising mortgage holidays for those unable to work in a lock down situation....
As I said last night, mortgages will not be the problem. Private rented is where problems will arise in the event of prolonged lockdown.
How many BTL landlords will happily take a mortgage holiday on their property whilst still expecting their tenants to pay in full and on time?
I'm sure they would try it on - but to evict someone the landlord would need to go to court and I suspect a judge would throw it out..
In Scotland at least you can do nothing till they are months behind in any case, they then just need to make an effort and courts will be against landlord so unlikely to be happening up here.
Yes, one of the other features of the outbreak is that some people seem to catch it very easily while others much less so, despite intimate exposure. I wonder if natural variation in viral entry sites accounts for this. It has implications for herd immunity and the ceiling for infection numbers.
I was reading up about the Black Death over the weekend, as you do when you need cheering up. It really was an extraordinary business. 30-50% of Europe's population are estimated to have died and it took 200 years for the population to recover.
And yet, some people did survive it.
Did eadric lend it to you when he’d finished with it?
So what are you personal midpoint estimates for deaths if Govt continues on its current disastrous path?
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
Promising. It’s a widely used drug, but as a biological, it would be difficult to ramp up production quickly. I hope there’s excess stock in the system.
It is quite fascinating to watch science being done in real time, and so openly. Journals are not paywalling Coronavirus work.
The work on this virus seems connected to a new level of internationally speeded-up and collaborative science. Is this a fair picture ?
Does anyone know whether the vius is a threat to non-human animal life? I was wondering, for example, about the mountain gorillas in the Virungas - I known naturalists have to wear a mask when they get close already, so this implies that some human borne ailments can be transmitted across species (at least to our fellow apes).
It would have to make some kind of a jump, as it did to infect the first Chinese person in the same place.
That dog that tested positive (at a very low level) in Hong Kong, they appear now to have concluded that the virus was on the dog but not infecting it.
Mr. Doof, I'm inclined to agree. It's also a little peculiar that he'd talk about his family to a stranger, over the phone. Either excessively trusting, or convenient.
Yes, one of the other features of the outbreak is that some people seem to catch it very easily while others much less so, despite intimate exposure. I wonder if natural variation in viral entry sites accounts for this. It has implications for herd immunity and the ceiling for infection numbers.
I was reading up about the Black Death over the weekend, as you do when you need cheering up. It really was an extraordinary business. 30-50% of Europe's population are estimated to have died and it took 200 years for the population to recover.
And yet, some people did survive it.
What a funny coincidence. eadric was saying the same thing the other day. Log into the wrong acccount this morning?
The capital spending relaxations are possibly even more significant. We might well see a budget today that McDonnell might not have dared. Massive increases in infrastructure spending, large scale provisions for the virus and probably some tax cuts too (ok, McDonnell wouldn't have gone for that).
Something about never waste a good crisis comes to mind.
Infrastructure spending is pointless if you're about to be forced to tell potential workers on those infrastructure projects to stay at home.
We need more imaginative and comprehensive measures four the limited period of the outbreak. Something like the government agreeing to pay everyone's rent and bills for the month (business and personal) so that the economy can resume almost as though nothing happened.
Infrastructure spending will not kick in immediately but it fills the order books of businesses which might otherwise be facing winding up and gives the banks something to lend on. Its a part of what has to be a very much bigger package. The freeing of lending restraints will have much more impact short term but there has to be at least a medium term as well.
It's the sort of measure that would work with an ordinary economic crisis, one where it would provide money and confidence to a part of the economy that could then continue spending on other parts (suppliers, hospitality, back office services, etc) - but that is the part that will be broken, so all of those smaller secondary companies will still take a pasting and won't be there to be part of the recovery when we emerge from isolation.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
Quite. People criticising the Govt approach should at least check that they are on the same page in what they think they should be trying to achieve. Projections are that this could ultimately affect anywhere from 20-60% of the population. Taking measures with the aim of limiting to a tiny fraction of this are not sensible if not actually achievable. I imagine that ultimately the Government’s focus is on preventable deaths over the course of the whole illness. Which means trying to manage the spread in a certain way to limit strain on health system as much as possible. And saving up certain harsh measures for when they will bring the most benefit (and importantly when they can achieve large scale public buy in).
Yes we have been through all this over the last few days. The basic argument is that there are range of policy interventions.
The options are not just: 1) washing hands 2) welding people into their homes.
There is lots of stuff in between. The government has been far too slow in doing those things in between, in my view of course.
Dress this up all you like but the Gov't have been typically cavalier. It's Boris all over. He never wants to face up to anything serious.
We COULD have pushed the peak back into the summer if we had taken stringent measures. And the summer will be absolutely critical. Look at countries like Thailand and Malaysia and you can see that the virus isn't exploding. By autumn we'll have a really good handle on treatments and, regardless of IanB2's negativity, I bet you now that vaccines will be produced in record time. We have the world's scientists gunning for this and the northern hemisphere winter 2020/1 will be the critical time.
The Government have done almost nothing. Absolute shitshow. Worse, in fact, as Malcolm says.
It's like the Dems are two parties. Can both be encouraged equally to the polls in November?
I don’t think it matters this time round (particularly as there’s no way Sanders can now think he was cheated of the nomination). It will in four years’ time.
I'm not going to point fingers, but comments yesterday evening about new cases in France and Germany slowing down now seem totally unfounded. I just want to repeat that we cannot reach conclusions from just one or two days change. There are many logistic effects that can make the data on a daily basis lumpy. Just for example doing a less tests on a Sunday.
Yes, one of the other features of the outbreak is that some people seem to catch it very easily while others much less so, despite intimate exposure. I wonder if natural variation in viral entry sites accounts for this. It has implications for herd immunity and the ceiling for infection numbers.
I was reading up about the Black Death over the weekend, as you do when you need cheering up. It really was an extraordinary business. 30-50% of Europe's population are estimated to have died and it took 200 years for the population to recover.
And yet, some people did survive it.
What a funny coincidence. eadric was saying the same thing the other day. Log into the wrong acccount this morning?
Don't be a dick. Or try not to be.
Don't you think it's possible we both looked at the same source? Use your brain. If you have one.
This one is worrying. Three TSA agents in California have tested positive for Coronavirus. How many people would they have been in close proximity to, in the past couple of weeks? Source: Bloomberg News
I think it’s possibly so pervasive now in the US that individual reports like that are more symptomatic than significant.... There are parallels with Italy.
It must be everywhere in the US, and they really haven't a clue.
Last night Newsnight had two medical experts on, both American academics, and they offered up the US as the example of how not to handle things.
Dems will vote for Joe Biden even if he’s got dementia ! When the other guy is a social psychopath without a shred of humanity then it’s not a hard decision .
By the way, I'm also a bit suspicious of this 'underlying health issues' tag that's being applied willy-nilly. Perhaps they do all have serious conditions, but almost everyone over the age of 60 has something or other going on.
I can say with certainty that pre existing conditions including diabetes and copd together with age puts me in the highest risk group as this virus attacks the respiratory system.
I stopped smoking 16 years ago and if I had not I would not have survived to my age
Underlying health issues is a very salient issue in covid 19
Yes, one of the other features of the outbreak is that some people seem to catch it very easily while others much less so, despite intimate exposure. I wonder if natural variation in viral entry sites accounts for this. It has implications for herd immunity and the ceiling for infection numbers.
I was reading up about the Black Death over the weekend, as you do when you need cheering up. It really was an extraordinary business. 30-50% of Europe's population are estimated to have died and it took 200 years for the population to recover.
And yet, some people did survive it.
What a funny coincidence. eadric was saying the same thing the other day. Log into the wrong acccount this morning?
Sean's vocab and tics, like random words in capitals, not to mention the drunken evening rantings, are sufficiently distinctive that I doubt we have another sock puppet! And certainly not at 8 am.
What does seem to be the case is that those who have become over-obsessed with the story itself are fuelling their habit with historical material.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
That's not the case. If we had gone into tough measures we might have been able to stave off the worst until May/June when the warmer weather would arrest the spread naturally. Countries like Thailand and Malaysia aren't having this badly.
Then, the hope would be that by the time we reach next winter a vaccine and/or brilliant treatment will be in place.
The Government are shit.
Please advise your degrees (plural) in medicine to make this assessment.
It doesn't seem to me as if governments and their experts at all understand yet whether there are unique factors that have led to the Lombardy situation or not. Some governments seem to be acting on this assumption and others not.
It could be that the government are still getting information that the type of UK outbreak so far still doesn't merit these kind of measures, but god knows whether that will turn out to be right or not.
Screw the budget, screw politics. Man City v Arsenal cancelled meaning Liverpool can't win the Premier League at Goodison.
Now this is serious. 😡
Don’t you mean they can’t win the League before Goodison? Man City lose on Saturday the Liv can extend gap to 28pts with 9 matches left?
I was putting more faith in Arsenal taking points off City than Burnley. I never thought City would lose at home to both Arsenal and Burnley but was hopeful of a slip up against one of them making Goodison possible.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
I'm sorry but I think this post is irresponsible. I cannot believe that there is an intention to hold back on isolation measures until there is sufficient immunity. Writing "They can't spell it out" comes straight from theconspiracy theory text book.
The end of an isolation period should not be "All Clear! We can all go kiss strangers" Any sensible end will be a general relaxation of measures, and we are hearing that this is beginning now in Wuhan.
Obviously we all wish Nadine Dorries a good recovery.
I have to say though that her comment that she hopes she's over the worst of it doesn't seem to tally with the virus profile. Like the Spanish flu, it seems as if the worst part can come on when you think you're feeling better. That's my amateurish reading anyway.
So presumably coronavirus is now spreading around Westminster. The Houses of Parliament must be an ideal breeding ground for the pernicious disease.
And yet, they meet on. Infecting one another and all their staff.
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
This is the RA medication that my wife takes. Is this a sign that those taking this medication could be less affected by the virus? Or should I be concerned because the symptoms could be especially sever in people with RA? I have been worrying that my wife was a higher risk person because of the underlying condition (she is only 31 though so not in a risky age bracket)
Apart from testing more than any other countries outside China (81,000 cases), Italy (10,000 cases and South Korea (8,000) cases. We have 383.
And testing means you can have relatively more confidence about the progress of the virus and introduce measures appropriate to the current circumstances.
I have a friend who is on a cruise ship somewhere in the West Indies. He has Covid 19 and has been confined to his cabin UFN and antibiotics. He says he feels shit, but is only 65 and as fit as a fiddle so should be ok.
Of course, there is another reason that Eadric and I think alike.
We're both highly intelligent, brilliant, authors.
Modest too.
Have a good day folks
xx
…who specialise in creating fantasy for the purpose of entertainment, and have little or no experience of managing anything, exercising responsibility and accountability, or making real world judgements based on imperfect evidence.
I have a friend who is on a cruise ship somewhere in the West Indies. He has Covid 19 and has been confined to his cabin UFN and antibiotics. He says he feels shit, but is only 65 and as fit as a fiddle so should be ok.
Is it a US cruise ship out of Miami, or one of the two P&O ships out there? If the latter that's another 4,000 Brits exposed.....
I have a friend who is on a cruise ship somewhere in the West Indies. He has Covid 19 and has been confined to his cabin UFN and antibiotics. He says he feels shit, but is only 65 and as fit as a fiddle so should be ok.
Would be interesting to know a bit more about how he feels: is it like having a cold, a really bad cold, the flu, worse?
Does he know where he caught it? From someone on the cruise I guess?
I have a friend who is on a cruise ship somewhere in the West Indies. He has Covid 19 and has been confined to his cabin UFN and antibiotics. He says he feels shit, but is only 65 and as fit as a fiddle so should be ok.
If true that ship will be all over the news, soon enough.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
I'm sorry but I think this post is irresponsible. I cannot believe that there is an intention to hold back on isolation measures until there is sufficient immunity. Writing "They can't spell it out" comes straight from theconspiracy theory text book.
The end of an isolation period should not be "All Clear! We can all go kiss strangers" Any sensible end will be a general relaxation of measures, and we are hearing that this is beginning now in Wuhan.
Yes, one of the other features of the outbreak is that some people seem to catch it very easily while others much less so, despite intimate exposure. I wonder if natural variation in viral entry sites accounts for this. It has implications for herd immunity and the ceiling for infection numbers.
I was reading up about the Black Death over the weekend, as you do when you need cheering up. It really was an extraordinary business. 30-50% of Europe's population are estimated to have died and it took 200 years for the population to recover.
Obviously we all wish Nadine Dorries a good recovery.
I have to say though that her comment that she hopes she's over the worst of it doesn't seem to tally with the virus profile. Like the Spanish flu, it seems as if the worst part can come on when you think you're feeling better. That's my amateurish reading anyway.
So presumably coronavirus is now spreading around Westminster. The Houses of Parliament must be an ideal breeding ground for the pernicious disease.
And yet, they meet on. Infecting one another and all their staff.
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
This is the RA medication that my wife takes. Is this a sign that those taking this medication could be less affected by the virus? Or should I be concerned because the symptoms could be especially sever in people with RA? I have been worrying that my wife was a higher risk person because of the underlying condition (she is only 31 though so not in a risky age bracket)
It is an early non peer reviewed report but it may be that she has the magic shield.
It is the host cytokine response that seems to be the problem in severely affected cases. Quite how best to manage it is yet uncertain.
Apart from testing more than any other countries outside China (81,000 cases), Italy (10,000 cases and South Korea (8,000) cases. We have 383.
And testing means you can have relatively more confidence about the progress of the virus and introduce measures appropriate to the current circumstances.
Italy had 374 cases on Feb 26 - about where we are now.
Subsequent days went; 528, 650, 888, 1,100, 1,700, 2,000, 2,100
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
I'm sorry but I think this post is irresponsible. I cannot believe that there is an intention to hold back on isolation measures until there is sufficient immunity. Writing "They can't spell it out" comes straight from theconspiracy theory text book.
The end of an isolation period should not be "All Clear! We can all go kiss strangers" Any sensible end will be a general relaxation of measures, and we are hearing that this is beginning now in Wuhan.
Wuhan has had, what, 2500-3000 deaths (declared anyway)? If that is anywhere close to the end state then we’ll be back to “a bad (or even normal!) flu season” again.
The conditions in Wuhan can’t be sustained indefinitely. They may all be locked down again in a month or so. And part of the reason they can do some cautious relaxation will be because if immunity build up.
HRC v Michelle at the Convention. C'mon, who wouldn't love to see that play out.....
That would be fun, but the Biden delegates supported Biden because they thought they should have someone experienced and electable, and Michelle fails the first, while HRC is the only person in the world to have empirically proven they can lose an election to the guy off Celebrity Apprentice.
If Biden falls over late the job goes to his VP pick, if it's early I think you're looking at a smart pick who didn't run like Sherrod Brown, an elder statesman figure like John Kerry or Al Gore, or if they want somebody younger, one of the strong but failed candidates like Kamala Harris or Amy KLOBUCHAR.
I agree that H Clinton is a complete non-starter, but Kerry and Gore are also proven WH loosers. Trump would exploit that to the hills and the average American doesn't like to support a loser.
Well, Dems generally consider Gore a proven winner...
Apart from testing more than any other countries outside China (81,000 cases), Italy (10,000 cases and South Korea (8,000) cases. We have 383.
And testing means you can have relatively more confidence about the progress of the virus and introduce measures appropriate to the current circumstances.
Italy had 374 cases on Feb 26 - about where we are now.
Subsequent days went; 528, 650, 888, 1,100, 1,700, 2,000, 2,100
Let's see how the next week pans out in the UK.
Indeed. But am I correct in saying Italian cases were far more highly concentrated?
From memory they were also way behind the curve on testing so clearly had a lot of untested/diagnosed cases in the population. But we’ll see.
HRC v Michelle at the Convention. C'mon, who wouldn't love to see that play out.....
That would be fun, but the Biden delegates supported Biden because they thought they should have someone experienced and electable, and Michelle fails the first, while HRC is the only person in the world to have empirically proven they can lose an election to the guy off Celebrity Apprentice.
If Biden falls over late the job goes to his VP pick, if it's early I think you're looking at a smart pick who didn't run like Sherrod Brown, an elder statesman figure like John Kerry or Al Gore, or if they want somebody younger, one of the strong but failed candidates like Kamala Harris or Amy KLOBUCHAR.
I agree that H Clinton is a complete non-starter, but Kerry and Gore are also proven WH loosers. Trump would exploit that to the hills and the average American doesn't like to support a loser.
Well, Dems generally consider Gore a proven winner...
It's like the Dems are two parties. Can both be encouraged equally to the polls in November?
I don’t think it matters this time round (particularly as there’s no way Sanders can now think he was cheated of the nomination). It will in four years’ time.
I note Yang - who backed Sanders four years ago - has now endorsed Biden.
Apart from testing more than any other countries outside China (81,000 cases), Italy (10,000 cases and South Korea (8,000) cases. We have 383.
And testing means you can have relatively more confidence about the progress of the virus and introduce measures appropriate to the current circumstances.
Italy had 374 cases on Feb 26 - about where we are now.
Subsequent days went; 528, 650, 888, 1,100, 1,700, 2,000, 2,100
Let's see how the next week pans out in the UK.
Indeed. But am I correct in saying Italian cases were far more highly concentrated?
From memory they were also way behind the curve on testing so clearly had a lot of untested/diagnosed cases in the population. But we’ll see.
It looks like clustering is the launch pad for the take off in numbers, Madrid 750 with two other clusters, at the moment the other cases are well distributed across the country. London was at just over 100 yesterday wasn’t it?
His name is Sunak Oh, Rishi Sunak Please make me happy On Budget Day.
Increase health spending But keep down borrowing And please don't take My higher-rate pension tax relief Away.
No Labour supporters on the site will complain about this budget. It’s only going to implement Ed balls and Ed Milliband economic strategy. All Tory’s who said Osborne was right and Balls wrong will rally round and not pipe up negatively, so this budget will be universally embraced, perhaps with bunting up outside food banks up North.
In ten years time though it might be viewed as a total joke.
Apart from testing more than any other countries outside China (81,000 cases), Italy (10,000 cases and South Korea (8,000) cases. We have 383.
And testing means you can have relatively more confidence about the progress of the virus and introduce measures appropriate to the current circumstances.
Italy had 374 cases on Feb 26 - about where we are now.
Subsequent days went; 528, 650, 888, 1,100, 1,700, 2,000, 2,100
Let's see how the next week pans out in the UK.
Indeed. But am I correct in saying Italian cases were far more highly concentrated?
From memory they were also way behind the curve on testing so clearly had a lot of untested/diagnosed cases in the population. But we’ll see.
Apart from testing more than any other countries outside China (81,000 cases), Italy (10,000 cases and South Korea (8,000) cases. We have 383.
I suspect that isn't entirely true. How many tests have been done in Germany? I can't find figures but I would be surprised if it is less than in the UK. There are also a few countries that have done more tests per capita than the UK.
I have a friend who is on a cruise ship somewhere in the West Indies. He has Covid 19 and has been confined to his cabin UFN and antibiotics. He says he feels shit, but is only 65 and as fit as a fiddle so should be ok.
Is it a US cruise ship out of Miami, or one of the two P&O ships out there? If the latter that's another 4,000 Brits exposed.....
Is it the Caribbean Princess? They recently had two crew flown over from the other stricken Princess (before this became known) and there does now seem to be some concern on board. Its itinerary has been changed, stops cancelled, and it is moored awaiting test kits being flown out to it.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
This is the Nature article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00660-x A handful of genetic and structural analyses have identified a key feature of the virus — a protein on its surface — that might explain why it infects human cells so readily....
To infect a cell, coronaviruses use a ‘spike’ protein that binds to the cell membrane, a process that's activated by specific cell enzymes. Genomic analyses of the new coronavirus have revealed that its spike protein differs from those of close relatives, and suggest that the protein has a site on it which is activated by a host-cell enzyme called furin.
...This is significant because furin is found in lots of human tissues, including the lungs, liver and small intestines, which means that the virus has the potential to attack multiple organs, says Li Hua, a structural biologist at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began. The finding could explain some of the symptoms observed in people with the coronavirus, such as liver failure, says Li, who co-authored a genetic analysis of the virus that was posted on the ChinaXiv preprint server on 23 February2. SARS and other coronaviruses in the same genus as the new virus don't have furin activation sites, he says.
The furin activation site “sets the virus up very differently to SARS in terms of its entry into cells, and possibly affects virus stability and hence transmission”, says Gary Whittaker, a virologist at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. His team published another structural analysis of the coronavirus’s spike protein on bioRxiv on 18 February3.
Several other groups have also identified the activation site as possibly enabling the virus to spread efficiently between humans4. They note that these sites are also found in other viruses that spread easily between people, including severe strains of the influenza virus. On these viruses, the activation site is found on a protein called haemagglutinin, not on the spike protein.
Urging caution
But some researchers are cautious about overstating the role of the activation site in helping the coronavirus to spread more easily. “We don’t know if this is going to be a big deal or not,” says Jason McLellan, a structural biologist at the University of Texas at Austin, who co-authored another structural analysis of the coronavirus, which was published in Science on 20 February5....
Reading that you could almost think coronavirus was manufactured in a laboratory
If your favourite head attire was tin foil, certainly.
Comments
*waves from the shed.....*
The latest view seems to be that this virus wont be stopped by the summer, maybe slowed but not by much.
It is most unlikely that a vaccine will be researched, tested and produced in sufficient volumes to be ready by the autumn. And since the EU and US are leading the production, we'll be some way down the queue in any case.
Oh, Rishi Sunak
Please make me happy
On Budget Day.
Increase health spending
But keep down borrowing
And please don't take
My higher-rate pension tax relief
Away.
Now this is serious. 😡
So what are you personal midpoint estimates for deaths if Govt continues on its current disastrous path?
That dog that tested positive (at a very low level) in Hong Kong, they appear now to have concluded that the virus was on the dog but not infecting it.
The options are not just:
1) washing hands
2) welding people into their homes.
There is lots of stuff in between. The government has been far too slow in doing those things in between, in my view of course.
Dress this up all you like but the Gov't have been typically cavalier. It's Boris all over. He never wants to face up to anything serious.
We COULD have pushed the peak back into the summer if we had taken stringent measures. And the summer will be absolutely critical. Look at countries like Thailand and Malaysia and you can see that the virus isn't exploding. By autumn we'll have a really good handle on treatments and, regardless of IanB2's negativity, I bet you now that vaccines will be produced in record time. We have the world's scientists gunning for this and the northern hemisphere winter 2020/1 will be the critical time.
The Government have done almost nothing. Absolute shitshow. Worse, in fact, as Malcolm says.
It will in four years’ time.
Don't you think it's possible we both looked at the same source? Use your brain. If you have one.
Last night Newsnight had two medical experts on, both American academics, and they offered up the US as the example of how not to handle things.
We're both highly intelligent, brilliant, authors.
Modest too.
Have a good day folks
xx
I stopped smoking 16 years ago and if I had not I would not have survived to my age
Underlying health issues is a very salient issue in covid 19
What does seem to be the case is that those who have become over-obsessed with the story itself are fuelling their habit with historical material.
It could be that the government are still getting information that the type of UK outbreak so far still doesn't merit these kind of measures, but god knows whether that will turn out to be right or not.
The end of an isolation period should not be "All Clear! We can all go kiss strangers" Any sensible end will be a general relaxation of measures, and we are hearing that this is beginning now in Wuhan.
Does he know where he caught it? From someone on the cruise I guess?
It is the host cytokine response that seems to be the problem in severely affected cases. Quite how best to manage it is yet uncertain.
Subsequent days went; 528, 650, 888, 1,100, 1,700, 2,000, 2,100
Let's see how the next week pans out in the UK.
The conditions in Wuhan can’t be sustained indefinitely. They may all be locked down again in a month or so. And part of the reason they can do some cautious relaxation will be because if immunity build up.
From memory they were also way behind the curve on testing so clearly had a lot of untested/diagnosed cases in the population. But we’ll see.
https://twitter.com/carriesymonds/status/1237650287256571904?s=20
In ten years time though it might be viewed as a total joke.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
For anyone who cares and who missed it last night and thinks they will still be alive to spend any winnings.
Rich Ricci told me yesterday that Chacun Pour Soi was going to win the Champion Chase.
DYOR, etc
https://www.wptv.com/news/state/caribbean-princess-given-no-sail-order-off-florida-coast-due-to-coronavirus-testing
Although some internet gossip suggests it just got the all clear?
And Dorries was otherwise indisposed. Still wondering how Jenkyns and Bridgen never made the shortlist.
Or perhaps they did, but couldn't follow the instructions for finding the location of the interview?