HRC v Michelle at the Convention. C'mon, who wouldn't love to see that play out.....
That would be fun, but the Biden delegates supported Biden because they thought they should have someone experienced and electable, and Michelle fails the first, while HRC is the only person in the world to have empirically proven they can lose an election to the guy off Celebrity Apprentice.
If Biden falls over late the job goes to his VP pick, if it's early I think you're looking at a smart pick who didn't run like Sherrod Brown, an elder statesman figure like John Kerry or Al Gore, or if they want somebody younger, one of the strong but failed candidates like Kamala Harris or Amy KLOBUCHAR.
btw Merkel's remarks about 70% of Germans getting infected were made in a meeting and reported by other participants, not made to the media. Merkel has said absolutely nothing so far in public. I am really shocked by her lack of leadership.
Lol. My Waitrose delivery is coming this morning and there is no toilet paper. None, since I tagged a small pack as Ok for substation and yet nothing is coming.
As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
Yes, she is predicting that
Maybe I misread your post - you seemed to say 4 million
She was referring to the WHO worst case scenario: - up to 70% infected - 5-10% in critical care i.e. 4 million - 1% fatalities
She didn't make a prediction.
Why did she say it in the first place. Hostage to fortune
Are you suggesting that the political leadership of the country stays silent about the impending crisis? She had refrained from comment thus far, largely.
She already caused chaos with her open invitation to migrants when prudence would have been wise, so the same with this
Why did her open invitation to migrants cause chaos?
Did your life become more chaotic?
It is accepted that she made a huge error which continues to be played out on the Greek border
No it isn't.
How did your life become more chaotic?
It did for millions of migrants and communitues around Europe
And why have the EU done nothing about the Greeks opening fire on the migrants
Exactly on whose behalf are you speaking? Are you intimately acquainted with "millions of migrants and communities around Europe"?
No of course you're not.
You have precisely zero basis upon which to opine. A period of silence would be welcome now from you.
Who on earth do you think you are.
And many on this forum would endorse my views
I will not be silent
STFU Big G. Tell us about cruises and big armchairs. That's about it.
Pathetic and sad - such intolerance and arrogance
And no answer on why the EU are not preventing the Greeks firing on the migrants
I suspect Topping has had a fine day at the Cheltenham races, and is now feeling a little, er, giddy.
It is a rather embarrassing spectacle and he will likely apologise, with a hangover, tomorrow.
Why was Angela Merkel's immigration policy such a disaster?
1. It put strain on international relationships as it triggered a flow of migrants that had a major impact on neighbouring countries despite being done without consultation 2. She then tried to force through reallocation of migrants to other EU countries which caused further strain 3. It undermined the principle that asylum should be for those in greatest need not the youngest and strongest 4. It probably played a role in the Brexit vote
Biden now backed into 1.07 for the nomination, Sanders right out to 110.
Usually you'd say that it was all over now, but this is the Democrat nomination race and anything can still happen!
Hillary Clinton is only 36 (second favourite!), and Michelle Obama 65.
Lay HRC at 40, pays 2.5% in three months!
Utter insanity
Biden is heading for a convincing win at convention, but comes down with the virus beforehand. Doesn’t Clinton stand some chance of being a last minute replacement? Rather than putting up a decisively defeated loser. She has at least won a convention.
She's also won a popular vote against Trump.
Are there no Trump voters out there with buyer's remorse?
Are there no Trump voters out there with buyer's remorse?
We need polling.....
If you want to know what a shitty candidate Hillary was, compare her results at the same point in the cycle against the same opposing candidate to Biden's.
Lol. My Waitrose delivery is coming this morning and there is no toilet paper. None, since I tagged a small pack as Ok for substation and yet nothing is coming.
Don't you have access to a large supply of LibDem Focus leaflets?
Obviously we all wish Nadine Dorries a good recovery.
I have to say though that her comment that she hopes she's over the worst of it doesn't seem to tally with the virus profile. Like the Spanish flu, it seems as if the worst part can come on when you think you're feeling better. That's my amateurish reading anyway.
So presumably coronavirus is now spreading around Westminster. The Houses of Parliament must be an ideal breeding ground for the pernicious disease.
And yet, they meet on. Infecting one another and all their staff.
btw Merkel's remarks about 70% of Germans getting infected were made in a meeting and reported by other participants, not made to the media. Merkel has said absolutely nothing so far in public. I am really shocked by her lack of leadership.
Thanks for clearing this up. I was a bit confused with the reports here about what Merkel said last night, but nothing was mentioned on the DLF news at midnight.
Spahn (the health minister) was interviewed thos morning. He came across as level headed and sensible, although his boast about S.Korea and Germany being the countries in the best position to do thousands of tests was over exagerated,... "Pride comes before a ..."
Obviously we all wish Nadine Dorries a good recovery.
I have to say though that her comment that she hopes she's over the worst of it doesn't seem to tally with the virus profile. Like the Spanish flu, it seems as if the worst part can come on when you think you're feeling better. That's my amateurish reading anyway.
So presumably coronavirus is now spreading around Westminster. The Houses of Parliament must be an ideal breeding ground for the pernicious disease.
And yet, they meet on. Infecting one another and all their staff.
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
I'm not going to point fingers, but comments yesterday evening about new cases in France and Germany slowing down now seem totally unfounded. I just want to repeat that we cannot reach conclusions from just one or two days change. There are many logistic effects that can make the data on a daily basis lumpy. Just for example doing a less tests on a Sunday.
I'm not going to point fingers, but comments yesterday evening about new cases in France and Germany slowing down now seem totally unfounded. I just want to repeat that we cannot reach conclusions from just one or two days change. There are many logistic effects that can make the data on a daily basis lumpy. Just for example doing a less tests on a Sunday.
I wonder also if a focus on whole country figures to assess progress of the virus is misleading. In some countries the numbers are far more focussed and localised meaning that the health systems in that locality are creaking heavily. Where number are more evenly distributed countries are (currently) in a much better position.
Obviously we all wish Nadine Dorries a good recovery.
I have to say though that her comment that she hopes she's over the worst of it doesn't seem to tally with the virus profile. Like the Spanish flu, it seems as if the worst part can come on when you think you're feeling better. That's my amateurish reading anyway.
So presumably coronavirus is now spreading around Westminster. The Houses of Parliament must be an ideal breeding ground for the pernicious disease.
And yet, they meet on. Infecting one another and all their staff.
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
But is this the natural course of the virus for most people or just the more serious cases? Is it not possible that large numbers of people do actually just feel a bit shitty for a few days and that’s it?
Tell that to the fecking Don't Panickers. They will end up killing us all.
Don’t panic is good advice. Just take it seriously.
No, mild panic is advisable, and has been advisable for weeks. The Chinese panicked, so did the Taiwanese, as did the Japanese, and it has worked.
Western nonchalance is going to be our downfall, if we are not very very careful.
"Meh, it's just the flu"
Idiots.
Losing control and acting irrationally helps no one. We need the Apollo 13 mindset and calmly work out the problem. Details matter and they’re the first to go when you panic.
I guess it depends how you define panic.
We certainly need a higher level of alarm, concern and fearful awareness amongst the general population, so they will adopt social distancing, wash their hands, wear masks, etc. Everything tells us that this works. We can beat this.
It is time to give the people a rather nasty wake up call.
*Waving*
You didn't answer my question.
Why was Angela Merkel's immigration policy so bad?
Ooh, ooh, I know this one!
Because it was in direct contravention of established EU protocols. Specifically, the so-called Dublin rules. She made the decision, apparently, on the spur of the moment, without consultation, because of some pictures she saw on the news.
What do I win?
The Dublin Convention would have obligated the arrival states to process asylum applications. Suspending the rules was intended to relieve the arrival states of that burden. And of course she received consultation, and not from the TV.
It override their sovereign decision to close their borders
btw Merkel's remarks about 70% of Germans getting infected were made in a meeting and reported by other participants, not made to the media. Merkel has said absolutely nothing so far in public. I am really shocked by her lack of leadership.
Thanks for clearing this up. I was a bit confused with the reports here about what Merkel said last night, but nothing was mentioned on the DLF news at midnight.
Spahn (the health minister) was interviewed thos morning. He came across as level headed and sensible, although his boast about S.Korea and Germany being the countries in the best position to do thousands of tests was over exagerated,... "Pride comes before a ..."
Yes Spahn has been better, but Merkel leaving everything to her health minister sends the wrong message. While Johnson is one of the politicians I most despise, he has at least been talking about this crisis to the public.
I think Germany is well-prepared in some ways: numbers of intensive care places immediately available, ability to increase testing because of lots of local facilities able to do it. Test results usually come back in about 24 hours (at least in NRW) - less if you are actually being tested at a hospital that has the facilities on site. Actually getting tested is another matter. I was surprised to hear about it taking days for results to come back in the UK, if true.
In other ways Germany is not so well prepared - up to now people are pretty much carrying on as normal despite the large number of cases. The national govt has somewhat limited powers to impose measures (tho this again goes back to Merkel's lack of leadership - if she had come on television and said "this is a national emergency - all gatherings of over 1000 people should stop" I guess it would happen pretty quickly even if she doesn't have the legal power. Whereas Spahn recommending it at the beginning of the week means it takes days for local authorities to think about whether to do it or not). So far there has been a lack of national direction.
Obviously we all wish Nadine Dorries a good recovery.
I have to say though that her comment that she hopes she's over the worst of it doesn't seem to tally with the virus profile. Like the Spanish flu, it seems as if the worst part can come on when you think you're feeling better. That's my amateurish reading anyway.
So presumably coronavirus is now spreading around Westminster. The Houses of Parliament must be an ideal breeding ground for the pernicious disease.
And yet, they meet on. Infecting one another and all their staff.
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
But is this the natural course of the virus for most people or just the more serious cases? Is it not possible that large numbers of people do actually just feel a bit shitty for a few days and that’s it?
Logic would suggest that the mild cases don’t get to the second stage, for whatever reason?
Fe**ing half witted cretin, you have SNP running Twitter now, how utterly thick can you unionists be. Sticking your propaganda where the sun does not shine
It'll be a negative soon the way things are going. It is, of course now, when inflation is taken into account.
Base interest rates are amost always negative after accounting for inflation. If it stays positive for any length of time then those with money keep it in bonds and savings accounts instead of stimulating the economy.
Lol. My Waitrose delivery is coming this morning and there is no toilet paper. None, since I tagged a small pack as Ok for substation and yet nothing is coming.
Don't you have access to a large supply of LibDem Focus leaflets?
They are a bit glossy.
The Guardian is more absorbent, though here in the former Red Wall there are not many shops with more than two copies.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
The capital spending relaxations are possibly even more significant. We might well see a budget today that McDonnell might not have dared. Massive increases in infrastructure spending, large scale provisions for the virus and probably some tax cuts too (ok, McDonnell wouldn't have gone for that).
Something about never waste a good crisis comes to mind.
Yeah, because the banks will of course pass that on to borrowers (*rolls eyes*) albeit they will pass it on like fury to savers.
Although it may of course make it slightly cheaper for them to borrow themselves.
It's pissing into the wind of the developing economic typhoon. The government should be ready to print money, to be disbursed liberally for the period of shutdown, so that the economy can resume afterwards.
By the way, I'm also a bit suspicious of this 'underlying health issues' tag that's being applied willy-nilly. Perhaps they do all have serious conditions, but almost everyone over the age of 60 has something or other going on.
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
Promising. It’s a widely used drug, but as a biological, it would be difficult to ramp up production quickly. I hope there’s excess stock in the system.
- the theory that this virus won't like the hot weather. We don't know yet, but MERS -another coronavirus - comes from Saudi Arabia, and its host is the camel.
- in addition to the elderly a major at risk group is the obese - highly relevant in the States.
Interesting that he thinks obesity will raise the US fatality rate over China despite China smoking more.
On that note, I'm genuinely surprised "ARE YOU STILL SMOKING? IF SO, STOP ASAP!" hasn't been part of the COVID-19 messaging. It is a risk factor that people are able to modify, though I don't know (and probably the experts don't either yet) exactly how much help a couple of months of lung regeneration would be.
It may have been deemed a possible distraction from the "wash your hands" messaging, and risk being seen as too nanny-statish, so I'm not convinced it would have actually been a good idea, at least to spend too much attention on, but I remain surprised because (a) it's never bad advice, (b) it's unlike PHE to miss a chance to condemn smoking!
Nevertheless, the official guidance at a press conference (from memory, but I think I'm only slightly paraphrasing) was "if you were already thinking of giving up smoking, now would be a good time". I have a feeling that was in response to a reporter's question rather than something that was brought up spontaneously. Which struck me as yet another very wishy-washy recommendation, bearing in mind the strength of the evidence against smoking in general, and the fact smokers in China were known to be a high-risk group, and the fact this is more easily modified than many other risk factors are. This was one of the things that fed into my lament FPT, please just tell us what things we can do to protect ourselves and each other, bearing in mind you actually know a lot more about them than we do.
It's not as if telling people to give up the cigarettes is such a radical piece of health advice that it would likely stoke panic, nor is there any conceivable benefit to "timing it right" by only telling people to give up smoking later down the line. If you didn't want to distract from the main message of the campaign, some messaging specifically targeted at smokers (eg a website, or "COVID-19 and smoking" health advice posters to be compulsorily displayed at tobacco retail units) doesn't sound unreasonable. FWIW the Irish equivalent of PHE have made "COVID-19 and smoking" advice prominent on their website with a call to action to their Stop Smoking services.
There is a group of smokers “irreconcilables” who are resistant to all anti-smoking messages. About 20% of smokers (4% of the adult population)
I assume the concern is that if they see anti CV messages as anti-smoking they will ignore them all.
Lol. My Waitrose delivery is coming this morning and there is no toilet paper. None, since I tagged a small pack as Ok for substation and yet nothing is coming.
Yes, and as someone with hypertension myself, It does trouble me.
My thinking is that it is all tied up with the Angiotensin system of blood pressure regulation. The virus enters cells via the ACE2 receptor (ACE2 = Angiotensin Converting Enzyme). This potentially could be affected by a number of common blood pressure drugs (drugs ending 'pril are ACE inhibitors, drugs ending 'sartan are ARB = Angiotensin receptor blockers). There was some work on ARB drugs showing benefits on SARDS in 2003 outbreak.
This doesn't quite match the adverse outcomes in the current outbreak, so I am scratching my head a bit over what is going on.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
I'm not going to point fingers, but comments yesterday evening about new cases in France and Germany slowing down now seem totally unfounded. I just want to repeat that we cannot reach conclusions from just one or two days change. There are many logistic effects that can make the data on a daily basis lumpy. Just for example doing a less tests on a Sunday.
yes the early figures I saw re Germany for yesterday were just wrong
HRC v Michelle at the Convention. C'mon, who wouldn't love to see that play out.....
That would be fun, but the Biden delegates supported Biden because they thought they should have someone experienced and electable, and Michelle fails the first, while HRC is the only person in the world to have empirically proven they can lose an election to the guy off Celebrity Apprentice.
If Biden falls over late the job goes to his VP pick, if it's early I think you're looking at a smart pick who didn't run like Sherrod Brown, an elder statesman figure like John Kerry or Al Gore, or if they want somebody younger, one of the strong but failed candidates like Kamala Harris or Amy KLOBUCHAR.
Be fair: Clinton is the only Democrat. Loads of Republicans lost various forms of electoral competitions to Trump as well.
Lol. My Waitrose delivery is coming this morning and there is no toilet paper. None, since I tagged a small pack as Ok for substation and yet nothing is coming.
Bet that's wiped the smile off your face
Thankfully I have supply for the short term and really only placed the order for four rolls out of curiosity, and as a medium term precaution. That they cant substitute with anything tells that they've suffered from panic buying.
Still in Israel. Hoping to fly back to the UK today. Spoke to my wife last night. She’s not feeling well. Thinks it’s just a cold. I hope she’s right. Stay safe everyone and stay at home. Do not be a total dick like me!
Hope she`s OK, SO.
Mrs Stocky is within striking distance of the summit of Kilimanjaro. If Covid-19 has made it up there I`ll let you know.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
Still in Israel. Hoping to fly back to the UK today. Spoke to my wife last night. She’s not feeling well. Thinks it’s just a cold. I hope she’s right. Stay safe everyone and stay at home. Do not be a total dick like me!
Hope she`s OK, SO.
Mrs Stocky is within striking distance of the summit of Kilimanjaro. If Covid-19 has made it up there I`ll let you know.
Tell her to stay up there, and await the arrival of our resident author.
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
Promising. It’s a widely used drug, but as a biological, it would be difficult to ramp up production quickly. I hope there’s excess stock in the system.
HRC v Michelle at the Convention. C'mon, who wouldn't love to see that play out.....
That would be fun, but the Biden delegates supported Biden because they thought they should have someone experienced and electable, and Michelle fails the first, while HRC is the only person in the world to have empirically proven they can lose an election to the guy off Celebrity Apprentice.
If Biden falls over late the job goes to his VP pick, if it's early I think you're looking at a smart pick who didn't run like Sherrod Brown, an elder statesman figure like John Kerry or Al Gore, or if they want somebody younger, one of the strong but failed candidates like Kamala Harris or Amy KLOBUCHAR.
I agree that H Clinton is a complete non-starter, but Kerry and Gore are also proven WH loosers. Trump would exploit that to the hills and the average American doesn't like to support a loser.
This is the Nature article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00660-x A handful of genetic and structural analyses have identified a key feature of the virus — a protein on its surface — that might explain why it infects human cells so readily....
To infect a cell, coronaviruses use a ‘spike’ protein that binds to the cell membrane, a process that's activated by specific cell enzymes. Genomic analyses of the new coronavirus have revealed that its spike protein differs from those of close relatives, and suggest that the protein has a site on it which is activated by a host-cell enzyme called furin.
...This is significant because furin is found in lots of human tissues, including the lungs, liver and small intestines, which means that the virus has the potential to attack multiple organs, says Li Hua, a structural biologist at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began. The finding could explain some of the symptoms observed in people with the coronavirus, such as liver failure, says Li, who co-authored a genetic analysis of the virus that was posted on the ChinaXiv preprint server on 23 February2. SARS and other coronaviruses in the same genus as the new virus don't have furin activation sites, he says.
The furin activation site “sets the virus up very differently to SARS in terms of its entry into cells, and possibly affects virus stability and hence transmission”, says Gary Whittaker, a virologist at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. His team published another structural analysis of the coronavirus’s spike protein on bioRxiv on 18 February3.
Several other groups have also identified the activation site as possibly enabling the virus to spread efficiently between humans4. They note that these sites are also found in other viruses that spread easily between people, including severe strains of the influenza virus. On these viruses, the activation site is found on a protein called haemagglutinin, not on the spike protein.
Urging caution
But some researchers are cautious about overstating the role of the activation site in helping the coronavirus to spread more easily. “We don’t know if this is going to be a big deal or not,” says Jason McLellan, a structural biologist at the University of Texas at Austin, who co-authored another structural analysis of the coronavirus, which was published in Science on 20 February5....
The capital spending relaxations are possibly even more significant. We might well see a budget today that McDonnell might not have dared. Massive increases in infrastructure spending, large scale provisions for the virus and probably some tax cuts too (ok, McDonnell wouldn't have gone for that).
Something about never waste a good crisis comes to mind.
Infrastructure spending is pointless if you're about to be forced to tell potential workers on those infrastructure projects to stay at home.
We need more imaginative and comprehensive measures four the limited period of the outbreak. Something like the government agreeing to pay everyone's rent and bills for the month (business and personal) so that the economy can resume almost as though nothing happened.
The Bank is lending £100bn to the banks at pretty much the current base rate to allow them to keep funding businesses. Capital restrictions which might otherwise inhibit banks from lending are being relaxed. These are by far the biggest steps taken in monetary policy since 2008. Its a welcome acknowledgement of how bad this is going to be but it also leaves very little in the locker.
Lol. My Waitrose delivery is coming this morning and there is no toilet paper. None, since I tagged a small pack as Ok for substation and yet nothing is coming.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
F1: Ladbrokes' markets up. Nothing tempts me right now.
(Guardian) Three Formula One team members at the Australian Grand Prix have been placed into isolation after concerns they may have contracted the coronavirus.
One member from McLaren and two from the Haas teams were evaluated at the circuit’s isolation unit, established by F1, after showing fever symptoms at the track.
The team members have been tested for the virus and placed under self isolation at their hotels. There will be major concern if their tests are positive, as they have already been mixing in the paddock with others.
On Monday, Andrew Westacott, CEO of the Australian Grand Prix Corporation, said the race will proceed as planned and there was “not a chance” the Grand Prix would be cancelled or postponed.
The capital spending relaxations are possibly even more significant. We might well see a budget today that McDonnell might not have dared. Massive increases in infrastructure spending, large scale provisions for the virus and probably some tax cuts too (ok, McDonnell wouldn't have gone for that).
Something about never waste a good crisis comes to mind.
It was being trailed to the media yesterday as unleashing the largest package of investment (aka spending) since 1955.
For those who haven't seen it, a very good Joe Rogan interview with Michael Osterholm, which is 1000 times better than any other discussion that's being had in the USA right now.
Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
Promising. It’s a widely used drug, but as a biological, it would be difficult to ramp up production quickly. I hope there’s excess stock in the system.
Still in Israel. Hoping to fly back to the UK today. Spoke to my wife last night. She’s not feeling well. Thinks it’s just a cold. I hope she’s right. Stay safe everyone and stay at home. Do not be a total dick like me!
Hope she`s OK, SO.
Mrs Stocky is within striking distance of the summit of Kilimanjaro. If Covid-19 has made it up there I`ll let you know.
Tell her to stay up there, and await the arrival of our resident author.
I already thought of telling her to stay up there, but (ahem) she may take it the wrong way.
The capital spending relaxations are possibly even more significant. We might well see a budget today that McDonnell might not have dared. Massive increases in infrastructure spending, large scale provisions for the virus and probably some tax cuts too (ok, McDonnell wouldn't have gone for that).
Something about never waste a good crisis comes to mind.
Infrastructure spending is pointless if you're about to be forced to tell potential workers on those infrastructure projects to stay at home.
We need more imaginative and comprehensive measures four the limited period of the outbreak. Something like the government agreeing to pay everyone's rent and bills for the month (business and personal) so that the economy can resume almost as though nothing happened.
Infrastructure spending will not kick in immediately but it fills the order books of businesses which might otherwise be facing winding up and gives the banks something to lend on. Its a part of what has to be a very much bigger package. The freeing of lending restraints will have much more impact short term but there has to be at least a medium term as well.
F1: Ladbrokes' markets up. Nothing tempts me right now.
On Monday, Andrew Westacott, CEO of the Australian Grand Prix Corporation, said the race will proceed as planned and there was “not a chance” the Grand Prix would be cancelled or postponed.
Yes, one of the other features of the outbreak is that some people seem to catch it very easily while others much less so, despite intimate exposure. I wonder if natural variation in viral entry sites accounts for this. It has implications for herd immunity and the ceiling for infection numbers.
The Democratic race is over. It’s Biden. Hopefully Bernie will face reality this time and graciously exit.
Trump is going to find it harder facing Biden then he would most of the others. Seems the democrats have actually woken up and realised the key to all this is beating Trump. Could Biden still lose? Yes, we have a long time to go and he is gaffe prone. But Trump looks more vulnerable now than he did a fortnight ago.
On Coronavirus, I might be old fashioned but I understand the government has been following the advice of the medical experts when it comes to the overall strategy and I see no reason why they should be deviating from that at the time.
The thing with all this “lock everything down now!” argument is that when we all go into lockdown (which to some degree feels inevitable) it is going to be for quite a long time. They are rightly seeking to minimise that time because they (again, I think rightly) realise that people are going to suffer from lockdown fatigue and/or not take it seriously until the risk filters through. I know that this is concerning many on here, but if you are in an at risk group there are sensible precautions you can take now beyond the advice of government if you are worried. For those that do have to go out to work and do not have the option of working from home, I understand that this is more difficult but it may be worth having conversations around what can be done to avoid social events etc.
This is the Nature article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00660-x A handful of genetic and structural analyses have identified a key feature of the virus — a protein on its surface — that might explain why it infects human cells so readily....
To infect a cell, coronaviruses use a ‘spike’ protein that binds to the cell membrane, a process that's activated by specific cell enzymes. Genomic analyses of the new coronavirus have revealed that its spike protein differs from those of close relatives, and suggest that the protein has a site on it which is activated by a host-cell enzyme called furin.
...This is significant because furin is found in lots of human tissues, including the lungs, liver and small intestines, which means that the virus has the potential to attack multiple organs, says Li Hua, a structural biologist at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began. The finding could explain some of the symptoms observed in people with the coronavirus, such as liver failure, says Li, who co-authored a genetic analysis of the virus that was posted on the ChinaXiv preprint server on 23 February2. SARS and other coronaviruses in the same genus as the new virus don't have furin activation sites, he says.
The furin activation site “sets the virus up very differently to SARS in terms of its entry into cells, and possibly affects virus stability and hence transmission”, says Gary Whittaker, a virologist at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. His team published another structural analysis of the coronavirus’s spike protein on bioRxiv on 18 February3.
Several other groups have also identified the activation site as possibly enabling the virus to spread efficiently between humans4. They note that these sites are also found in other viruses that spread easily between people, including severe strains of the influenza virus. On these viruses, the activation site is found on a protein called haemagglutinin, not on the spike protein.
Urging caution
But some researchers are cautious about overstating the role of the activation site in helping the coronavirus to spread more easily. “We don’t know if this is going to be a big deal or not,” says Jason McLellan, a structural biologist at the University of Texas at Austin, who co-authored another structural analysis of the coronavirus, which was published in Science on 20 February5....
Reading that you could almost think coronavirus was manufactured in a laboratory
This one is worrying. Three TSA agents in California have tested positive for Coronavirus. How many people would they have been in close proximity to, in the past couple of weeks? Source: Bloomberg News
The capital spending relaxations are possibly even more significant. We might well see a budget today that McDonnell might not have dared. Massive increases in infrastructure spending, large scale provisions for the virus and probably some tax cuts too (ok, McDonnell wouldn't have gone for that).
Something about never waste a good crisis comes to mind.
It was being trailed to the media yesterday as unleashing the largest package of investment (aka spending) since 1955.
What happened in 1955 I am too young to recall.
Even I am too young for that but my understanding is that is when infrastructure spending, repairing the damage and neglect caused by the war, hit more than 3% of GDP.
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
Promising. It’s a widely used drug, but as a biological, it would be difficult to ramp up production quickly. I hope there’s excess stock in the system.
It is quite fascinating to watch science being done in real time, and so openly. Journals are not paywalling Coronavirus work.
The work on this virus seems connected to a new level of internationally speeded-up and collaborative science. Is this a fair picture ?
Does anyone know whether the vius is a threat to non-human animal life? I was wondering, for example, about the mountain gorillas in the Virungas - I known naturalists have to wear a mask when they get close already, so this implies that some human borne ailments can be transmitted across species (at least to our fellow apes).
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
Promising. It’s a widely used drug, but as a biological, it would be difficult to ramp up production quickly. I hope there’s excess stock in the system.
It is quite fascinating to watch science being done in real time, and so openly. Journals are not paywalling Coronavirus work.
The work on this virus seems connected to a new level of internationally speeded-up and collaborative science. Is this a fair picture ?
One thing that has changed very significantly is the willingness of scientists to publish results online as preprints, rather than waiting for the formal review process. That has massively speeded up the exchange of information (at the cost of dispensing with quality filters).
Still in Israel. Hoping to fly back to the UK today. Spoke to my wife last night. She’s not feeling well. Thinks it’s just a cold. I hope she’s right. Stay safe everyone and stay at home. Do not be a total dick like me!
Hope she`s OK, SO.
Mrs Stocky is within striking distance of the summit of Kilimanjaro. If Covid-19 has made it up there I`ll let you know.
It will be a determined climber indeed who makes the sumit with coronavirus!
This is the Nature article: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00660-x A handful of genetic and structural analyses have identified a key feature of the virus — a protein on its surface — that might explain why it infects human cells so readily....
To infect a cell, coronaviruses use a ‘spike’ protein that binds to the cell membrane, a process that's activated by specific cell enzymes. Genomic analyses of the new coronavirus have revealed that its spike protein differs from those of close relatives, and suggest that the protein has a site on it which is activated by a host-cell enzyme called furin.
...This is significant because furin is found in lots of human tissues, including the lungs, liver and small intestines, which means that the virus has the potential to attack multiple organs, says Li Hua, a structural biologist at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began. The finding could explain some of the symptoms observed in people with the coronavirus, such as liver failure, says Li, who co-authored a genetic analysis of the virus that was posted on the ChinaXiv preprint server on 23 February2. SARS and other coronaviruses in the same genus as the new virus don't have furin activation sites, he says.
The furin activation site “sets the virus up very differently to SARS in terms of its entry into cells, and possibly affects virus stability and hence transmission”, says Gary Whittaker, a virologist at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. His team published another structural analysis of the coronavirus’s spike protein on bioRxiv on 18 February3.
Several other groups have also identified the activation site as possibly enabling the virus to spread efficiently between humans4. They note that these sites are also found in other viruses that spread easily between people, including severe strains of the influenza virus. On these viruses, the activation site is found on a protein called haemagglutinin, not on the spike protein.
Urging caution
But some researchers are cautious about overstating the role of the activation site in helping the coronavirus to spread more easily. “We don’t know if this is going to be a big deal or not,” says Jason McLellan, a structural biologist at the University of Texas at Austin, who co-authored another structural analysis of the coronavirus, which was published in Science on 20 February5....
Reading that you could almost think coronavirus was manufactured in a laboratory
If your favourite head attire was tin foil, certainly.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
That's not the case. If we had gone into tough measures we might have been able to stave off the worst until May/June when the warmer weather would arrest the spread naturally. Countries like Thailand and Malaysia aren't having this badly.
Then, the hope would be that by the time we reach next winter a vaccine and/or brilliant treatment will be in place.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
A freind of mine is in Kyrgistan at the moment. She writes that people are worried about corona. Lots of people have symptoms but there is no capability to test.
Still in Israel. Hoping to fly back to the UK today. Spoke to my wife last night. She’s not feeling well. Thinks it’s just a cold. I hope she’s right. Stay safe everyone and stay at home. Do not be a total dick like me!
Hope she`s OK, SO.
Mrs Stocky is within striking distance of the summit of Kilimanjaro. If Covid-19 has made it up there I`ll let you know.
It will be a determined climber indeed who makes the sumit with coronavirus!
How did you get on isolating your wife on her return from abroad in the shed?
Lol. My Waitrose delivery is coming this morning and there is no toilet paper. None, since I tagged a small pack as Ok for substation and yet nothing is coming.
Bet that's wiped the smile off your face
Thankfully I have supply for the short term and really only placed the order for four rolls out of curiosity, and as a medium term precaution. That they cant substitute with anything tells that they've suffered from panic buying.
Picture sof Sean and his rich buddies roaming Waitrose buying up all the loo rolls
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
That's not the case. If we had gone into tough measures we might have been able to stave off the worst until May/June when the warmer weather would arrest the spread naturally. Countries like Thailand and Malaysia aren't having this badly.
Then, the hope would be that by the time we reach next winter a vaccine and/or brilliant treatment will be in place.
Yes, while flu peaks early, COVID19 seems to take a week or so to reach the critical stage. This seems to be the immune system getting out of control, causing a cytokine crisis of lung inflammation. It is still early days but it does look as if Tocilizumab may be having positive results.
Promising. It’s a widely used drug, but as a biological, it would be difficult to ramp up production quickly. I hope there’s excess stock in the system.
The capital spending relaxations are possibly even more significant. We might well see a budget today that McDonnell might not have dared. Massive increases in infrastructure spending, large scale provisions for the virus and probably some tax cuts too (ok, McDonnell wouldn't have gone for that).
Something about never waste a good crisis comes to mind.
It was being trailed to the media yesterday as unleashing the largest package of investment (aka spending) since 1955.
What happened in 1955 I am too young to recall.
Even I am too young for that but my understanding is that is when infrastructure spending, repairing the damage and neglect caused by the war, hit more than 3% of GDP.
I would guess the massive New Town projects of the 1950's and public housing boom under Macmillan.
This one is worrying. Three TSA agents in California have tested positive for Coronavirus. How many people would they have been in close proximity to, in the past couple of weeks? Source: Bloomberg News
I think it’s possibly so pervasive now in the US that individual reports like that are more symptomatic than significant.... There are parallels with Italy.
When cases in the UK explode, which they will do at some point over the next 3 weeks, I wonder how this Government will be viewed? They have done next-to-nothing to contain the virus. In that regard we are on a par with Iran, Italy and the US.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
I think they will fall back onto 'scientific evidence' but as has been discussed a few times on here, that is a false argument. The evidence is mixed, different advisers have different views and ultimately it's a judgement of trade-offs: the economy versus the health of the nation.
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
But the brutal truth is that if we go into isolation before a reasonable part of the population has some immunity, then when we come out of isolation we simply get the same epidemic we would have had now. They cant spell it out, but they are waiting for the virus to infect enough people to at least create a pool of immunity so that its subsequent spread is slower.
Quite. People criticising the Govt approach should at least check that they are on the same page in what they think they should be trying to achieve. Projections are that this could ultimately affect anywhere from 20-60% of the population. Taking measures with the aim of limiting to a tiny fraction of this are not sensible if not actually achievable. I imagine that ultimately the Government’s focus is on preventable deaths over the course of the whole illness. Which means trying to manage the spread in a certain way to limit strain on health system as much as possible. And saving up certain harsh measures for when they will bring the most benefit (and importantly when they can achieve large scale public buy in).
Yes, one of the other features of the outbreak is that some people seem to catch it very easily while others much less so, despite intimate exposure. I wonder if natural variation in viral entry sites accounts for this. It has implications for herd immunity and the ceiling for infection numbers.
I was reading up about the Black Death over the weekend, as you do when you need cheering up. It really was an extraordinary business. 30-50% of Europe's population are estimated to have died and it took 200 years for the population to recover.
Comments
If Biden falls over late the job goes to his VP pick, if it's early I think you're looking at a smart pick who didn't run like Sherrod Brown, an elder statesman figure like John Kerry or Al Gore, or if they want somebody younger, one of the strong but failed candidates like Kamala Harris or Amy KLOBUCHAR.
Get back to bed!
2. She then tried to force through reallocation of migrants to other EU countries which caused further strain
3. It undermined the principle that asylum should be for those in greatest need not the youngest and strongest
4. It probably played a role in the Brexit vote
Are there no Trump voters out there with buyer's remorse?
We need polling.....
I have to say though that her comment that she hopes she's over the worst of it doesn't seem to tally with the virus profile. Like the Spanish flu, it seems as if the worst part can come on when you think you're feeling better. That's my amateurish reading anyway.
So presumably coronavirus is now spreading around Westminster. The Houses of Parliament must be an ideal breeding ground for the pernicious disease.
And yet, they meet on. Infecting one another and all their staff.
Spahn (the health minister) was interviewed thos morning. He came across as level headed and sensible, although his boast about S.Korea and Germany being the countries in the best position to do thousands of tests was over exagerated,... "Pride comes before a ..."
Misunderstanding, Johnson determined a shortlist of Burgon, Cummings and Grayling.
Cummings isn’t an MP, and Burgon isn’t a Tory (at least, not openly).
That left Grayling.
Clinton was just massively unpopular in the rust belt.
This has strong implications for November.
https://twitter.com/EvenWangMD/status/1237571344394420224?s=19
Website https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/
has 1277 positive cases
Website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
has only 587 cases
The HGIS page past 587 on 19th February. This is strange because Worldometers is fast at updatiing the figures from other sources.
Although it may of course make it slightly cheaper for them to borrow themselves.
I saw a Chinese doctor treating the disease suggested that there's a strong association between hypertension and mortality.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/top-virus-doctor-says-high-blood-pressure-is-major-death-risk
I think Germany is well-prepared in some ways: numbers of intensive care places immediately available, ability to increase testing because of lots of local facilities able to do it. Test results usually come back in about 24 hours (at least in NRW) - less if you are actually being tested at a hospital that has the facilities on site. Actually getting tested is another matter. I was surprised to hear about it taking days for results to come back in the UK, if true.
In other ways Germany is not so well prepared - up to now people are pretty much carrying on as normal despite the large number of cases. The national govt has somewhat limited powers to impose measures (tho this again goes back to Merkel's lack of leadership - if she had come on television and said "this is a national emergency - all gatherings of over 1000 people should stop" I guess it would happen pretty quickly even if she doesn't have the legal power. Whereas Spahn recommending it at the beginning of the week means it takes days for local authorities to think about whether to do it or not). So far there has been a lack of national direction.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/washington
The Guardian is more absorbent, though here in the former Red Wall there are not many shops with more than two copies.
The anti-flap Keep Calm and Carry On approach from Boris might work in most normal circumstances.
But this isn't normal.
Something about never waste a good crisis comes to mind.
F1: Ladbrokes' markets up. Nothing tempts me right now.
It’s a widely used drug, but as a biological, it would be difficult to ramp up production quickly. I hope there’s excess stock in the system.
What do you make of this thread ?
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1237617082780565505
I assume the concern is that if they see anti CV messages as anti-smoking they will ignore them all.
My thinking is that it is all tied up with the Angiotensin system of blood pressure regulation. The virus enters cells via the ACE2 receptor (ACE2 = Angiotensin Converting Enzyme). This potentially could be affected by a number of common blood pressure drugs (drugs ending 'pril are ACE inhibitors, drugs ending 'sartan are ARB = Angiotensin receptor blockers). There was some work on ARB drugs showing benefits on SARDS in 2003 outbreak.
This doesn't quite match the adverse outcomes in the current outbreak, so I am scratching my head a bit over what is going on.
More reading here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/nrmicro.2016.81
I don't think the government's preferences will align with the public's when the public is fully informed of the severity of this virus. But we shall see.
Last chance today to get potentially ahead of this thing.
Mrs Stocky is within striking distance of the summit of Kilimanjaro. If Covid-19 has made it up there I`ll let you know.
It is quite fascinating to watch science being done in real time, and so openly. Journals are not paywalling Coronavirus work.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00660-x
A handful of genetic and structural analyses have identified a key feature of the virus — a protein on its surface — that might explain why it infects human cells so readily....
To infect a cell, coronaviruses use a ‘spike’ protein that binds to the cell membrane, a process that's activated by specific cell enzymes. Genomic analyses of the new coronavirus have revealed that its spike protein differs from those of close relatives, and suggest that the protein has a site on it which is activated by a host-cell enzyme called furin.
...This is significant because furin is found in lots of human tissues, including the lungs, liver and small intestines, which means that the virus has the potential to attack multiple organs, says Li Hua, a structural biologist at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began. The finding could explain some of the symptoms observed in people with the coronavirus, such as liver failure, says Li, who co-authored a genetic analysis of the virus that was posted on the ChinaXiv preprint server on 23 February2. SARS and other coronaviruses in the same genus as the new virus don't have furin activation sites, he says.
The furin activation site “sets the virus up very differently to SARS in terms of its entry into cells, and possibly affects virus stability and hence transmission”, says Gary Whittaker, a virologist at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. His team published another structural analysis of the coronavirus’s spike protein on bioRxiv on 18 February3.
Several other groups have also identified the activation site as possibly enabling the virus to spread efficiently between humans4. They note that these sites are also found in other viruses that spread easily between people, including severe strains of the influenza virus. On these viruses, the activation site is found on a protein called haemagglutinin, not on the spike protein.
Urging caution
But some researchers are cautious about overstating the role of the activation site in helping the coronavirus to spread more easily. “We don’t know if this is going to be a big deal or not,” says Jason McLellan, a structural biologist at the University of Texas at Austin, who co-authored another structural analysis of the coronavirus, which was published in Science on 20 February5....
We need more imaginative and comprehensive measures four the limited period of the outbreak. Something like the government agreeing to pay everyone's rent and bills for the month (business and personal) so that the economy can resume almost as though nothing happened.
One member from McLaren and two from the Haas teams were evaluated at the circuit’s isolation unit, established by F1, after showing fever symptoms at the track.
The team members have been tested for the virus and placed under self isolation at their hotels. There will be major concern if their tests are positive, as they have already been mixing in the paddock with others.
On Monday, Andrew Westacott, CEO of the Australian Grand Prix Corporation, said the race will proceed as planned and there was “not a chance” the Grand Prix would be cancelled or postponed.
What happened in 1955 I am too young to recall.
Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
https://twitter.com/nickdixonitv/status/1237644613130780673?s=21
What did you mean about "resident author"?
Yes, one of the other features of the outbreak is that some people seem to catch it very easily while others much less so, despite intimate exposure. I wonder if natural variation in viral entry sites accounts for this. It has implications for herd immunity and the ceiling for infection numbers.
Trump is going to find it harder facing Biden then he would most of the others. Seems the democrats have actually woken up and realised the key to all this is beating Trump. Could Biden still lose? Yes, we have a long time to go and he is gaffe prone. But Trump looks more vulnerable now than he did a fortnight ago.
On Coronavirus, I might be old fashioned but I understand the government has been following the advice of the medical experts when it comes to the overall strategy and I see no reason why they should be deviating from that at the time.
The thing with all this “lock everything down now!” argument is that when we all go into lockdown (which to some degree feels inevitable) it is going to be for quite a long time. They are rightly seeking to minimise that time because they (again, I think rightly) realise that people are going to suffer from lockdown fatigue and/or not take it seriously until the risk filters through. I know that this is concerning many on here, but if you are in an at risk group there are sensible precautions you can take now beyond the advice of government if you are worried. For those that do have to go out to work and do not have the option of working from home, I understand that this is more difficult but it may be worth having conversations around what can be done to avoid social events etc.
Source: Bloomberg News
That has massively speeded up the exchange of information (at the cost of dispensing with quality filters).
So, yes.
Then, the hope would be that by the time we reach next winter a vaccine and/or brilliant treatment will be in place.
The Government are shit.
Maybe this is what they privately hope for, i.e. lots of individuals hardly notice that they've got it and spread immunity among the population.
This could be a problem in much of central Asia.
There are parallels with Italy.
And yet, some people did survive it.