A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
He'll have been wearing a mask and gloves during surgery, so I wouldn't worry too much.
What about all the chats before / after surgery? Where they often like to come around and check that everything is in order. Also the meeting with all the other surgeons.
I’ve always shaken my surgeon’s hand after such chats...
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
It could be the effect of some behavioural changes. If people are panic buying soap and so on, hopefully it means they are actually washing their hands more. I suspect we are already seeing the effects of some voluntary event cancellations and home working as well. Basically there must be a fair bit of already doing what the government is about to mandate.
My company has just moved to 80% homeworking today. Only short collab periods Monday and Tuesday otherwise 100% remote for all workers.
That's what I was getting at, although I broadly agree that the goverment should say "JFDI" it does seem that a lot of companies are already implementing travel bans, visitor bans, inter-site movement bans, and home working where possible.
The City will be at home by the end of next week, I think.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
This is an unfortunate culture war perspective to be following at this time.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
This is an unfortunate culture war perspective to be following at this time.
It’s also nonsense. Sunderland has a positive case, for example.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
Cant Russia store the oil and loan money, with the oil as security?
You'd need to physically store it somewhere neutral, which costs money, and you'd probably get only a fraction of the current price as a cash loan against it.
The buyer wouldn't loan more than the lowest possible future oil price he can see, minus a bit for his own comfort and minus a bit more for the storage costs.
That is not very well worded, as it suggests you can be arrested for buying food....
My guess is that when people are stopped on the street and asked why they are out will come up with some story about buying essential supplies.
In at least one Chinese province the rule is one designated member of each household under quarantine is allowed to leave their home twice a week to shop.
That is a superb line. Kind of along the lines of 'lend me your vote' which has been used by various politicians in the past.
I honestly can't work out if it's an absolutely superb line, possibly the best single sentence statement by a campaigning politician in the last 30 years, or an absolute blunder of the worst order.
I tend to the former.
It shows humility. It shows a recognition that his age is an issue and addresses it. It shows respect for the voters It allows people to vote for him in the knowledge that they will not be stuck with a duffer for the next 8 years. It negates a huge number of Trump attack lines and puts clear blue water between the two of them in spite of the age similarities.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
This is an unfortunate culture war perspective to be following at this time.
Put forward, I assure you, in the honest spirit of enquiry into the data
You expect a correlation between skiing holidays and the Coronavirus. So, there should be hotspots in very affluent areas.
There should also be a bump in the infections corresponding to half term.
It would be interesting to look in the data for it.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
Partly the consequence of equivocal official guidance at the time.
Yes because if he came back into the country 10 days ago then the Italian outbreak back then wasn't known to be what it is now.
Another of those low cost pieces of advice the government could have given. The precautionary principle.
He followed government advice at the time:
"The doc arrived back in the UK after a trip with some family members on February 29 and went to work as usual just two days later on March 2.
At the time, government advice allowed those who returned from northern Italy - excluding 11 specific quarantined towns - to carry on as normal if they were not displaying flu-like symptoms."
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
That won't stop Guardian writers complaining that the virus will hit the poor the hardest.
Biden can use the line because his opponents are Trump and Sanders - both of whom are old men themselves. It'd be a terrible move if for instance he was racing against Buttigieg right now. But he's not, so it isn't.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
Partly the consequence of equivocal official guidance at the time.
Yes because if he came back into the country 10 days ago then the Italian outbreak back then wasn't known to be what it is now.
Another of those low cost pieces of advice the government could have given. The precautionary principle.
He followed government advice at the time:
"The doc arrived back in the UK after a trip with some family members on February 29 and went to work as usual just two days later on March 2.
At the time, government advice allowed those who returned from northern Italy - excluding 11 specific quarantined towns - to carry on as normal if they were not displaying flu-like symptoms."
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Do Middle Class skiiers go to Norway and Switzerland?
(And I would note that LNG tankers comes from the Gulf to Milford Haven all the time. In an alternative present, the first case would be a sailor or engineer who infected a port employee, and then it would be Wales that had the hotspots.
What I'm saying is that there's a huge amount of luck - or lack thereof - in these outbreaks. This is not a time to say to... Ooohhh, it's a disease of middle class remainers. About time they suffered!)
Edit to add: the first line should read "Do Middle Class Leave voting skiiers go to Norway and Switzerland?"
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
This is an unfortunate culture war perspective to be following at this time.
Put forward, I assure you, in the honest spirit of enquiry into the data
You expect a correlation between skiing holidays and the Coronavirus. So, there should be hotspots in very affluent areas.
There should also be a bump in the infections corresponding to half term.
It would be interesting to look in the data for it.
Middle-class skiiers yes, "entitled Remainer elite" less helpful.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
It could be the effect of some behavioural changes. If people are panic buying soap and so on, hopefully it means they are actually washing their hands more. I suspect we are already seeing the effects of some voluntary event cancellations and home working as well. Basically there must be a fair bit of already doing what the government is about to mandate.
My company has just moved to 80% homeworking today. Only short collab periods Monday and Tuesday otherwise 100% remote for all workers.
That's what I was getting at, although I broadly agree that the goverment should say "JFDI" it does seem that a lot of companies are already implementing travel bans, visitor bans, inter-site movement bans, and home working where possible.
The City will be at home by the end of next week, I think.
There seems to be a bit of a drop-off in new confirmed cases in Germany too, I suspect that it's a result of testing criteria being relaxed last week led to a surge of new cases which should have been confirmed earlier, and that surge is levelling off a little. I haven't seen much evidence of any changes in behaviour here in Cologne, where we already have 33 confirmed cases. This might change - today the state government has decided to stop gatherings with more than 1000 people (2 days after the national health minister advised such a ban, so not so much sense of urgency yet...)
That is a superb line. Kind of along the lines of 'lend me your vote' which has been used by various politicians in the past.
I honestly can't work out if it's an absolutely superb line, possibly the best single sentence statement by a campaigning politician in the last 30 years, or an absolute blunder of the worst order.
I tend to the former.
It shows humility. It shows a recognition that his age is an issue and addresses it. It shows respect for the voters It allows people to vote for him in the knowledge that they will not be stuck with a duffer for the next 8 years. It negates a huge number of Trump attack lines and puts clear blue water between the two of them in spite of the age similarities.
I genuinely think it is a brilliant move.
Bridge to the Future Generation would only work if all the other candidates are equally ancient. So happens they all are.
While awaiting these results, doctors in the US, China and Italy are already using remdesivir on a compassionate basis to treat small numbers of patients with severe Covid-19. The first US patient, a 35-year-old man in Snohomish County, Washington, recovered, but the full trials are needed to assess whether the drug reduces the severity of symptoms and, crucially, mortality rates.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Do Middle Class skiiers go to Norway and Switzerland?
They used to go to Sheffield, and will again soon.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
I like it there
Skiing is expensive, cold, dangerous and you are surrounded by mewling and pompous members of the English middle classes.
Normally, just one of those things would put me off. Skiing has all four.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
That won't stop Guardian writers complaining that the virus will hit the poor the hardest.
It will. Cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension and respiratory disease are all associated with lower SE groups.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
It could be the effect of some behavioural changes. If people are panic buying soap and so on, hopefully it means they are actually washing their hands more. I suspect we are already seeing the effects of some voluntary event cancellations and home working as well. Basically there must be a fair bit of already doing what the government is about to mandate.
My company has just moved to 80% homeworking today. Only short collab periods Monday and Tuesday otherwise 100% remote for all workers.
That's what I was getting at, although I broadly agree that the goverment should say "JFDI" it does seem that a lot of companies are already implementing travel bans, visitor bans, inter-site movement bans, and home working where possible.
The City will be at home by the end of next week, I think.
There seems to be a bit of a drop-off in new confirmed cases in Germany too, I suspect that it's a result of testing criteria being relaxed last week led to a surge of new cases which should have been confirmed earlier, and that surge is levelling off a little. I haven't seen much evidence of any changes in behaviour here in Cologne, where we already have 33 confirmed cases. This might change - today the state government has decided to stop gatherings with more than 1000 people (2 days after the national health minister advised such a ban, so not so much sense of urgency yet...)
I'm surprised there are only 33 cases in Cologne when there are over 500 in NRW. Do you know where most of the positves live?
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Do Middle Class skiiers go to Norway and Switzerland?
(And I would note that LNG tankers comes from the Gulf to Milford Haven all the time. In an alternative present, the first case would be a sailor or engineer who infected a port employee, and then it would be Wales that had the hotspots.
What I'm saying is that there's a huge amount of luck - or lack thereof - in these outbreaks. This is not a time to say to... Ooohhh, it's a disease of middle class remainers. About time they suffered!)
Did I say "About time they suffered" ?
I said there should be some interesting trends in the temporal and spatial data if the infections are largely caused by skiing holidays at half-term,
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
I like it there
Skiing is expensive, cold, dangerous and you are surrounded by mewling and pompous members of the English middle classes.
Normally, just one of those things would put me off. Skiing has all four.
You sound as though you'd be the life and soul of a chalet party...
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
The former will be barely noticeable to most people, it'll feel like a rumble of thunder - the latter will visibly shake buildings and leave holes in roads close to the epicentre.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Not sure of the relevance of that, but I need some light relief today.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Whereas you sound like a miserable old bastard, wishing ill on other people.
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Whereas you sound like a miserable old bastard, wishing ill on other people.
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
He's particularly embittered because England defeated the Welsh on Saturday.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
I like it there
Skiing is expensive, cold, dangerous and you are surrounded by mewling and pompous members of the English middle classes.
Normally, just one of those things would put me off. Skiing has all four.
You sound as though you'd be the life and soul of a chalet party...
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
He'll have been wearing a mask and gloves during surgery, so I wouldn't worry too much.
What about all the chats before / after surgery? Where they often like to come around and check that everything is in order. Also the meeting with all the other surgeons.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Whereas you sound like a miserable old bastard, wishing ill on other people.
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
Indeed, with the age structure of the demographics of Wales, the high rates of at risk diseases and problematic health infrastructure, if it does become pandemic then I would expect Wales to be particularly hard hit.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
It could be the effect of some behavioural changes. If people are panic buying soap and so on, hopefully it means they are actually washing their hands more. I suspect we are already seeing the effects of some voluntary event cancellations and home working as well. Basically there must be a fair bit of already doing what the government is about to mandate.
My company has just moved to 80% homeworking today. Only short collab periods Monday and Tuesday otherwise 100% remote for all workers.
That's what I was getting at, although I broadly agree that the goverment should say "JFDI" it does seem that a lot of companies are already implementing travel bans, visitor bans, inter-site movement bans, and home working where possible.
The City will be at home by the end of next week, I think.
There seems to be a bit of a drop-off in new confirmed cases in Germany too, I suspect that it's a result of testing criteria being relaxed last week led to a surge of new cases which should have been confirmed earlier, and that surge is levelling off a little. I haven't seen much evidence of any changes in behaviour here in Cologne, where we already have 33 confirmed cases. This might change - today the state government has decided to stop gatherings with more than 1000 people (2 days after the national health minister advised such a ban, so not so much sense of urgency yet...)
I'm surprised there are only 33 cases in Cologne when there are over 500 in NRW. Do you know where most of the positves live?
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Not sure of the relevance of that, but I need some light relief today.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
He'll have been wearing a mask and gloves during surgery, so I wouldn't worry too much.
What about all the chats before / after surgery? Where they often like to come around and check that everything is in order. Also the meeting with all the other surgeons.
Good point.
It sounds like he is an ENT surgeon, so lots of poking about in mouths and noses.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Do Middle Class skiiers go to Norway and Switzerland?
(And I would note that LNG tankers comes from the Gulf to Milford Haven all the time. In an alternative present, the first case would be a sailor or engineer who infected a port employee, and then it would be Wales that had the hotspots.
What I'm saying is that there's a huge amount of luck - or lack thereof - in these outbreaks. This is not a time to say to... Ooohhh, it's a disease of middle class remainers. About time they suffered!)
Did I say "About time they suffered" ?
I said there should be some interesting trends in the temporal and spatial data if the infections are largely caused by skiing holidays at half-term,
I'm just an honest seeker after the truth
I would point out that the worst place to be - in terms of percentage infected - is probably Leave voting Torbay.
All that being said, one would expect that places where large numbers of people are concentrated (like London or New York) are going to see the greatest infection rates.
Simply, the number of people you are in daily close physical contact with in the Valleys might be twenty. But it London it might be a thousand. Epidemics have always stalked cities, and that's nothing to do with their political leanings, merely the close proximity of lots of people.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Whereas you sound like a miserable old bastard, wishing ill on other people.
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
Indeed, with the age structure of the demographics of Wales, the high rates of at risk diseases and problematic health infrastructure, if it does become pandemic then I would expect Wales to be particularly hard hit.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Whereas you sound like a miserable old bastard, wishing ill on other people.
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
I have not wished ill on anyone -- not even the old grumpus Gardenwalker.
It seems a perfectly reasonable hypothesis -- that most of the outbreaks in the Uk are caused by holidaymakers returning from half-term holidays in Northern Italy.
For example, the 2 cases in Pembrokeshire, 1 case in Swansea, 1 case in Cardiff are all caused by people returning from holidays in Northern Italy.
I suggested temporal and spatial features in the data to look for. For example, you might expect more of the cases in highly affluent areas, and you might expect the cases to peak in the weeks after half term.
Of course, lots of other things are going on in the data, but I expect those two features are there and could be sought for with matched filters.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
Vaguely back on topic, the LDs are at as low an ebb as I can remember in four decades of being a member of the Party (and its predecessors).
Siobhan Benita's dreadful poll rating in the London Mayoral Election shows how far the party has reversed since it won London in the 2019 European elections. The extent of the fall has been in many ways as dramatic as the 2015 election.
The Party faces an existential identity crisis and it has to ask the fundamental - what is it for? There are plenty of niches out there - as a centre-right pro-sound financial management party it would stand in marked contrast to the two big-spending social democratic parties led by Johnson and (presumably) Starmer but the appetite for fiscal probity has long gone - people just want the Government to emulate Viv Nicholson though it didn't end well for her.
There's a space for a pro-environment party which keeps well clear of eco-authoritarianism. Many would agree climate change is a serious issue and needs to be addressed and you can easily fault both the Conservative and Labour parties but is there a niche beyond 10-15% of the vote in that?
On Europe, the war is over yet you wouldn't think so from some of the LD language. Within the LEAVE vote there are presumably those who would wish a close economic relationship with Europe outside the EU but there seems a hardening toward a more independent line with the desire for sovereignty, control and divergence in the ascendant.
It may well be a Party arguing for a re-negotiation of the trade and economic arrangements back toward a closer relationship may have some difficult questions to answer about sovereignty and control but if the economic impact of divergence is sub-optimal such an argument may at least get a hearing.
At the moment, though, the LDs are lost and irrelevant. That will not always be so and the new leadership has to be adroit in picking up the opportunities when they arise (as they will) and capitalising on disillusionment with Johnson (which will come). That doesn't mean moving "closer" to Labour which remains in many ways a centralising and authoritarian movement for all that Starmer will, if becoming leader, begin Labour's journey back to credibility and a clear status of being an alternative Government.
In politics, there's what you have to say to get elected and there's what you can do once you are elected.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Whereas you sound like a miserable old bastard, wishing ill on other people.
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
Indeed, with the age structure of the demographics of Wales, the high rates of at risk diseases and problematic health infrastructure, if it does become pandemic then I would expect Wales to be particularly hard hit.
I would have thought the state of the Welsh NHS absolutely guarantees that.
In terms of ICUs, Wales is right at the bottom -- behind England, Scotland, N Ireland ..... and all other European countries except Portugal.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
I am over 65 and high risk and voted remain
However, the nuance of your post is your 'delight' it may affect those who voted leave
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
I merely pointed out, at the moment, it is affluent holiday makers from Northern Italy bringing the virus into the country.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
I am over 65 and high risk and voted remain
However, the nuance of your post is your 'delight' it may affect those who voted leave
What happened to kinder, gentler politics
Why does that surprise you? They've talked about Leavers dying off for years now.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Whereas you sound like a miserable old bastard, wishing ill on other people.
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
I have not wished ill on anyone -- not even the old grumpus Gardenwalker.
It seems a perfectly reasonable hypothesis -- that most of the outbreaks in the Uk are caused by holidaymakers returning from half-term holidays in Northern Italy.
For example, the 2 cases in Pembrokeshire, 1 case in Swansea, 1 case in Cardiff are all caused by people returning from holidays in Northern Italy.
I suggested temporal and spatial features in the data to look for. For example, you might expect more of the cases in highly affluent areas, and you might expect the cases to peak in the weeks after half term.
Of course, lots of other things are going on in the data, but I expect those two features are there and could be sort for with matched filters.
As all of those who have died are in the UK are over 60 and all but one over 70, it's unlikely they are skiers.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
I am over 65 and high risk and voted remain
However, the nuance of your post is your 'delight' it may affect those who voted leave
What happened to kinder, gentler politics
Why does that surprise you? They've talked about Leavers dying off for years now.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Whereas you sound like a miserable old bastard, wishing ill on other people.
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
I have not wished ill on anyone -- not even the old grumpus Gardenwalker.
It seems a perfectly reasonable hypothesis -- that most of the outbreaks in the Uk are caused by holidaymakers returning from half-term holidays in Northern Italy.
For example, the 2 cases in Pembrokeshire, 1 case in Swansea, 1 case in Cardiff are all caused by people returning from holidays in Northern Italy.
I suggested temporal and spatial features in the data to look for. For example, you might expect more of the cases in highly affluent areas, and you might expect the cases to peak in the weeks after half term.
Of course, lots of other things are going on in the data, but I expect those two features are there and could be sort for with matched filters.
As all of those who have died are in the UK are over 60 and all but one over 70, it's unlikely they are skiers.
Haven't they all caught it from people going to Italy though?
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
I am over 65 and high risk and voted remain
However, the nuance of your post is your 'delight' it may affect those who voted leave
What happened to kinder, gentler politics
Why does that surprise you? They've talked about Leavers dying off for years now.
Even the Telegraph are doing this now.
"Coronavirus might even prove mildly beneficial in the long run by disproportionately culling elderly dependents”.
Good tip. Just a few potential edits for your purview:
"Ever since the former Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, u̶n̶e̶x̶p̶e̶c̶t̶e̶d̶l̶y̶ [predictably] lost her seat"
"the awful general election for the party seeing a b̶i̶g̶ ̶ [modest 4.2%] increase in their vote share"
"One of the big things that hurt Swinson at the general election was that she had be̶e̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶c̶o̶a̶l̶i̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶m̶i̶n̶i̶s̶t̶e̶r̶ [tried to present herself as a potential PM despite having 1.8% of MPs].
"Moran did not become an MP until the 2017 general election and since then has built up a reasonable profile [aside from the allegations of domestic violence].
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Do Middle Class skiiers go to Norway and Switzerland?
(And I would note that LNG tankers comes from the Gulf to Milford Haven all the time. In an alternative present, the first case would be a sailor or engineer who infected a port employee, and then it would be Wales that had the hotspots.
What I'm saying is that there's a huge amount of luck - or lack thereof - in these outbreaks. This is not a time to say to... Ooohhh, it's a disease of middle class remainers. About time they suffered!)
Did I say "About time they suffered" ?
I said there should be some interesting trends in the temporal and spatial data if the infections are largely caused by skiing holidays at half-term,
I'm just an honest seeker after the truth
I would point out that the worst place to be - in terms of percentage infected - is probably Leave voting Torbay.
All that being said, one would expect that places where large numbers of people are concentrated (like London or New York) are going to see the greatest infection rates.
Simply, the number of people you are in daily close physical contact with in the Valleys might be twenty. But it London it might be a thousand. Epidemics have always stalked cities, and that's nothing to do with their political leanings, merely the close proximity of lots of people.
There are many other features in the data, sure.
Let's ask this question. How many of the UK cases can be traced back to holidays in Northern Italy?
I don't have access to the data, but it looks like well over 50 per cent, from newspaper reports.
In which case, people should be strongly discouraged from going abroad on holidays to countries with the virus (like the US) over Easter.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
I am over 65 and high risk and voted remain
However, the nuance of your post is your 'delight' it may affect those who voted leave
What happened to kinder, gentler politics
My "delight"? Your projection perhaps...
I was pointing out a flaw in YBarddCuwc's argument. You were not involved in this conversation nor was it aimed at you.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
Partly the consequence of equivocal official guidance at the time.
Yes because if he came back into the country 10 days ago then the Italian outbreak back then wasn't known to be what it is now.
Another of those low cost pieces of advice the government could have given. The precautionary principle.
Easier said than done. Telling all doctors who've been absent anywhere to stay absent for another couple of weeks despite not being deemed at risk is not "low cost".
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
I am over 65 and high risk and voted remain
However, the nuance of your post is your 'delight' it may affect those who voted leave
What happened to kinder, gentler politics
My "delight"? Your projection perhaps...
I was pointing out a flaw in YBarddCuwc's argument. You were not involved in this conversation nor was it aimed at you.
1. Try getting my name right. It is of Celtic origin, like yours.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Whereas you sound like a miserable old bastard, wishing ill on other people.
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
I have not wished ill on anyone -- not even the old grumpus Gardenwalker.
It seems a perfectly reasonable hypothesis -- that most of the outbreaks in the Uk are caused by holidaymakers returning from half-term holidays in Northern Italy.
For example, the 2 cases in Pembrokeshire, 1 case in Swansea, 1 case in Cardiff are all caused by people returning from holidays in Northern Italy.
I suggested temporal and spatial features in the data to look for. For example, you might expect more of the cases in highly affluent areas, and you might expect the cases to peak in the weeks after half term.
Of course, lots of other things are going on in the data, but I expect those two features are there and could be sort for with matched filters.
As all of those who have died are in the UK are over 60 and all but one over 70, it's unlikely they are skiers.
Unlikely that they are *all* skiers, perhaps. But I believe Our Man in the Tyrol was saying he is 77 the other day.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
I am over 65 and high risk and voted remain
However, the nuance of your post is your 'delight' it may affect those who voted leave
What happened to kinder, gentler politics
Why does that surprise you? They've talked about Leavers dying off for years now.
Even the Telegraph are doing this now.
"Coronavirus might even prove mildly beneficial in the long run by disproportionately culling elderly dependents”.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
I am over 65 and high risk and voted remain
However, the nuance of your post is your 'delight' it may affect those who voted leave
What happened to kinder, gentler politics
My "delight"? Your projection perhaps...
I was pointing out a flaw in YBarddCuwc's argument. You were not involved in this conversation nor was it aimed at you.
I may not have been involved but my comments are fair
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Isn't Torquay/Devon leaver central ?
Don’t stop @YBarddCwsc on one of his long rants against people more successful than him.
You sound like Stan and Pam "We are considerably richer than you".
Whereas you sound like a miserable old bastard, wishing ill on other people.
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
I have not wished ill on anyone -- not even the old grumpus Gardenwalker.
It seems a perfectly reasonable hypothesis -- that most of the outbreaks in the Uk are caused by holidaymakers returning from half-term holidays in Northern Italy.
For example, the 2 cases in Pembrokeshire, 1 case in Swansea, 1 case in Cardiff are all caused by people returning from holidays in Northern Italy.
I suggested temporal and spatial features in the data to look for. For example, you might expect more of the cases in highly affluent areas, and you might expect the cases to peak in the weeks after half term.
Of course, lots of other things are going on in the data, but I expect those two features are there and could be sort for with matched filters.
As all of those who have died are in the UK are over 60 and all but one over 70, it's unlikely they are skiers.
How many people have died as a result of infections brought into the country by holidaymakers in Northern Italy? What fraction is that of the total?
What does that suggest about planning for the Easter holidays?
(I agree they are not all skiers, but the half-term skiing holiday is characteristic of a walking-in-the-garden demographic).
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
What YBarddCuwc seems to forget is that the virus is far more dangerous to the over-65s aka the Leaver Demographic......
I am over 65 and high risk and voted remain
However, the nuance of your post is your 'delight' it may affect those who voted leave
What happened to kinder, gentler politics
My "delight"? Your projection perhaps...
I was pointing out a flaw in YBarddCuwc's argument. You were not involved in this conversation nor was it aimed at you.
1. Try getting my name right. It is of Celtic origin, like yours.
Good tip. Just a few potential edits for your purview:
"Ever since the former Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, u̶n̶e̶x̶p̶e̶c̶t̶e̶d̶l̶y̶ [predictably] lost her seat"
"the awful general election for the party seeing a b̶i̶g̶ ̶ [modest 4.2%] increase in their vote share"
"One of the big things that hurt Swinson at the general election was that she had be̶e̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶c̶o̶a̶l̶i̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶m̶i̶n̶i̶s̶t̶e̶r̶ [tried to present herself as a potential PM despite having 1.8% of MPs].
"Moran did not become an MP until the 2017 general election and since then has built up a reasonable profile [aside from the allegations of domestic violence].
I haven't seen it commented on but Spain has had another big rise for covid cases (up 419 since yesterday) and has now gone past both France and Germany to be the second highest in Europe.
China has now dropped out of the top 5 countries by capita (Italy, S Korea, Iran, Bahrain, Switzerland)
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
You need to get that massive chip off your shoulder
I like it there
Skiing is expensive, cold, dangerous and you are surrounded by mewling and pompous members of the English middle classes.
Normally, just one of those things would put me off. Skiing has all four.
You sound as though you'd be the life and soul of a chalet party...
Comments
Note: this is a joke.
I appreciate the insight, this is all very interesting.
The precautionary principle.
The buyer wouldn't loan more than the lowest possible future oil price he can see, minus a bit for his own comfort and minus a bit more for the storage costs.
In at least one Chinese province the rule is one designated member of each household under quarantine is allowed to leave their home twice a week to shop.
It shows humility.
It shows a recognition that his age is an issue and addresses it.
It shows respect for the voters
It allows people to vote for him in the knowledge that they will not be stuck with a duffer for the next 8 years.
It negates a huge number of Trump attack lines and puts clear blue water between the two of them in spite of the age similarities.
I genuinely think it is a brilliant move.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
You expect a correlation between skiing holidays and the Coronavirus. So, there should be hotspots in very affluent areas.
There should also be a bump in the infections corresponding to half term.
It would be interesting to look in the data for it.
"The doc arrived back in the UK after a trip with some family members on February 29 and went to work as usual just two days later on March 2.
At the time, government advice allowed those who returned from northern Italy - excluding 11 specific quarantined towns - to carry on as normal if they were not displaying flu-like symptoms."
It'd be a terrible move if for instance he was racing against Buttigieg right now. But he's not, so it isn't.
(And I would note that LNG tankers comes from the Gulf to Milford Haven all the time. In an alternative present, the first case would be a sailor or engineer who infected a port employee, and then it would be Wales that had the hotspots.
What I'm saying is that there's a huge amount of luck - or lack thereof - in these outbreaks. This is not a time to say to... Ooohhh, it's a disease of middle class remainers. About time they suffered!)
Edit to add: the first line should read "Do Middle Class Leave voting skiiers go to Norway and Switzerland?"
https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1237402881457872898
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Ski_Village
Skiing is expensive, cold, dangerous and you are surrounded by mewling and pompous members of the English middle classes.
Normally, just one of those things would put me off. Skiing has all four.
https://twitter.com/bbcpress/status/1235984198395142144
As you cower in you Corona bunker you can ask an AI to tell you how many of your fellow citizens are dead...
I said there should be some interesting trends in the temporal and spatial data if the infections are largely caused by skiing holidays at half-term,
I'm just an honest seeker after the truth
I really can't see Pence winning an election if COVID-19 kills Trump...
The former will be barely noticeable to most people, it'll feel like a rumble of thunder - the latter will visibly shake buildings and leave holes in roads close to the epicentre.
https://twitter.com/berlinerzeitung/status/1237357921127841793
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8Kum8OUTuk
There were 5 cases in Wales yesterday and more today, so you are not immune in your makeshift midden.
For the Welsh that's like a castration.
Be gentle.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1237407091012390913
All that being said, one would expect that places where large numbers of people are concentrated (like London or New York) are going to see the greatest infection rates.
Simply, the number of people you are in daily close physical contact with in the Valleys might be twenty. But it London it might be a thousand. Epidemics have always stalked cities, and that's nothing to do with their political leanings, merely the close proximity of lots of people.
It seems a perfectly reasonable hypothesis -- that most of the outbreaks in the Uk are caused by holidaymakers returning from half-term holidays in Northern Italy.
For example, the 2 cases in Pembrokeshire, 1 case in Swansea, 1 case in Cardiff are all caused by people returning from holidays in Northern Italy.
I suggested temporal and spatial features in the data to look for. For example, you might expect more of the cases in highly affluent areas, and you might expect the cases to peak in the weeks after half term.
Of course, lots of other things are going on in the data, but I expect those two features are there and could be sought for with matched filters.
Vaguely back on topic, the LDs are at as low an ebb as I can remember in four decades of being a member of the Party (and its predecessors).
Siobhan Benita's dreadful poll rating in the London Mayoral Election shows how far the party has reversed since it won London in the 2019 European elections. The extent of the fall has been in many ways as dramatic as the 2015 election.
The Party faces an existential identity crisis and it has to ask the fundamental - what is it for? There are plenty of niches out there - as a centre-right pro-sound financial management party it would stand in marked contrast to the two big-spending social democratic parties led by Johnson and (presumably) Starmer but the appetite for fiscal probity has long gone - people just want the Government to emulate Viv Nicholson though it didn't end well for her.
There's a space for a pro-environment party which keeps well clear of eco-authoritarianism. Many would agree climate change is a serious issue and needs to be addressed and you can easily fault both the Conservative and Labour parties but is there a niche beyond 10-15% of the vote in that?
On Europe, the war is over yet you wouldn't think so from some of the LD language. Within the LEAVE vote there are presumably those who would wish a close economic relationship with Europe outside the EU but there seems a hardening toward a more independent line with the desire for sovereignty, control and divergence in the ascendant.
It may well be a Party arguing for a re-negotiation of the trade and economic arrangements back toward a closer relationship may have some difficult questions to answer about sovereignty and control but if the economic impact of divergence is sub-optimal such an argument may at least get a hearing.
At the moment, though, the LDs are lost and irrelevant. That will not always be so and the new leadership has to be adroit in picking up the opportunities when they arise (as they will) and capitalising on disillusionment with Johnson (which will come). That doesn't mean moving "closer" to Labour which remains in many ways a centralising and authoritarian movement for all that Starmer will, if becoming leader, begin Labour's journey back to credibility and a clear status of being an alternative Government.
In politics, there's what you have to say to get elected and there's what you can do once you are elected.
In terms of ICUs, Wales is right at the bottom -- behind England, Scotland, N Ireland ..... and all other European countries except Portugal.
We have Llafur to thank for that.
However, the nuance of your post is your 'delight' it may affect those who voted leave
What happened to kinder, gentler politics
The correlations follow from that observation.
"Coronavirus might even prove mildly beneficial in the long run by disproportionately culling elderly dependents”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/03/does-fed-know-something-rest-us-do-not-panicked-interest-rate/
Good tip. Just a few potential edits for your purview:
"Ever since the former Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, u̶n̶e̶x̶p̶e̶c̶t̶e̶d̶l̶y̶ [predictably] lost her seat"
"the awful general election for the party seeing a b̶i̶g̶ ̶ [modest 4.2%] increase in their vote share"
"One of the big things that hurt Swinson at the general election was that she had be̶e̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶c̶o̶a̶l̶i̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶m̶i̶n̶i̶s̶t̶e̶r̶ [tried to present herself as a potential PM despite having 1.8% of MPs].
"Moran did not become an MP until the 2017 general election and since then has built up a reasonable profile [aside from the allegations of domestic violence].
Please action as you see fit.
Let's ask this question. How many of the UK cases can be traced back to holidays in Northern Italy?
I don't have access to the data, but it looks like well over 50 per cent, from newspaper reports.
In which case, people should be strongly discouraged from going abroad on holidays to countries with the virus (like the US) over Easter.
I was pointing out a flaw in YBarddCuwc's argument. You were not involved in this conversation nor was it aimed at you.
2. Try understanding the argument.
"It spurred social progress" etc.
Yep. And all it had to do was kill millions of people.
So it was a bit like socialism, only with progress.
What does that suggest about planning for the Easter holidays?
(I agree they are not all skiers, but the half-term skiing holiday is characteristic of a walking-in-the-garden demographic).
China has now dropped out of the top 5 countries by capita (Italy, S Korea, Iran, Bahrain, Switzerland)
https://twitter.com/tgruener/status/1237321828177186816
https://twitter.com/DailyMirror/status/1237411642792689664