So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
There is a lot of talk (On Twitter, I know) about people who on ringing 111 are being asked after they have described symptoms if they have been to a high risk are or in contact with someone who has, if they reply no they are told they have flu and aren’t being tested.
It's a growing concern. I was on course for Gold this year
Emirates Skywards have already said that they're suspending status downgrades indefinitely, apparently it was the most common question to their call centre as this all kicked off a few weeks ago.
I've reconciled myself to the fact that I'm losing my BA Gold Status this year.
I'll be bloody pissed if I lose it *and* get Coronavirus.
If you’re in bed with Coronavirus I would be amazed if you are worrying about your frequent flyer status. Even Sean wouldn’t sink that far.
Of course Sean wouldn't care, he's going to be gold status anyway.
For those of us who are going to miss out on a year of Gold because of this damn virus, it's a much bigger problem!
BA should award posthumous Gold for Life status to any victims.
Do they fly down there, then?
Perhaps your widow would get it. A small crumb of comfort.
Only for the happily married.
You don't have to be married (at least not when you are living and have it!)
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
There is a lot of talk (On Twitter, I know) about people who on ringing 111 are being asked after they have described symptoms if they have been to a high risk are or in contact with someone who has, if they reply no they are told they have flu and aren’t being tested.
If they are getting tens of thousands of calls about it, isn't it more likely that they don't have it? There hasn't been much community infection yet, it's primarily imported cases.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
It could be the effect of some behavioural changes. If people are panic buying soap and so on, hopefully it means they are actually washing their hands more. I suspect we are already seeing the effects of some voluntary event cancellations and home working as well. Basically there must be a fair bit of already doing what the government is about to mandate.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
It could be the effect of some behavioural changes. If people are panic buying soap and so on, hopefully it means they are actually washing their hands more. I suspect we are already seeing the effects of some voluntary event cancellations and home working as well. Basically there must be a fair bit of doing what the govnerment is about to mandate already.
My bloody hands are as sore as anything from all this washing !!!
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
Good news on the number of new infections counter-balanced by disappointing news on the number of tests done. If capacity cannot keep up with demand, which surely it can't now, then I wonder if the plan is to switch to a more clinical diagnosis at some point.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
There is a lot of talk (On Twitter, I know) about people who on ringing 111 are being asked after they have described symptoms if they have been to a high risk are or in contact with someone who has, if they reply no they are told they have flu and aren’t being tested.
What we don't know is the other symptoms they might have and are actually very uncommon if you have it e.g. runny nose. It may well be all these folk on twitter ringing up aren't thinking about these additional questions they have been asked and think yes I told them I had a runny nose, so what.
Piers did. And I'm sure that the reason he did was not to play a tabloid populist tune to his ill-informed gallery but because he is absolutely MASSIVE on women's rights. Women's rights, how to protect them, how to advance them, how to combat the patriarchy, is what above all other issues keeps him awake at night.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
There is a lot of talk (On Twitter, I know) about people who on ringing 111 are being asked after they have described symptoms if they have been to a high risk are or in contact with someone who has, if they reply no they are told they have flu and aren’t being tested.
If they are getting tens of thousands of calls about it, isn't it more likely that they don't have it? There hasn't been much community infection yet, it's primarily imported cases.
There are a lot of SeanTs out there. I hear via a friend of a female member of the House of Lords who is refusing to leave home convinced she has the virus.
Will any other political leader, citing the need for stability, be bold enough to follow Vladimir Vladimirovich's lead?
How long will Russia remain stable, if the oil price sticks at $20 or $25?
The Arabs reckon they can ride it out for a while with currency reserves, how long can Putin go?
In totally unrelated news, rouble down 15% vs US$ in the past week.
His lack of cooperation with OPEC seems to indicate he is aware of his limitations. If the Arabs reckon as you said, are they reckoning correctly? What's your take, close as you are?
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
If it is the weekend effect, then we will know tommorow, as there would be a jump with Mondays tests. I think it two early for any social distancing or handwashing to have made a difference.
Something from the Lancet that I think anyone should read before continuing to discuss pros/cons of what we "should" be doing...
How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, T Déirdre Hollingsworth. Published March 09, 2020
This is a pretty much up-to-date must-read on mitigation measures. Anderson (who's at Imperial, for those who are partisan about these things) is a legend in the field of infectious disease modelling.
But interestingly, I don't think anyone who's been following PB closely over the past few days will find much new in it. Perhaps an indication of just how tricky the contact-tracing is? Indication of what the experts really think (as distinct from commentariat froth) and what uncertainties they face? Definitely the better comments below-the-line on PB have maintained a high quality of discussion and I don't think there's much here that's been missed.
This was a key point: How individuals respond to advice on how best to prevent transmission will be as important as government actions, if not more important... One thing the article fails to consider in any detail is how government actions might shape individuals' responses. If government doesn't seem to be taking it particularly seriously for now, a large number of people will not do so, either.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
There is a lot of talk (On Twitter, I know) about people who on ringing 111 are being asked after they have described symptoms if they have been to a high risk are or in contact with someone who has, if they reply no they are told they have flu and aren’t being tested.
If they are getting tens of thousands of calls about it, isn't it more likely that they don't have it? There hasn't been much community infection yet, it's primarily imported cases.
There are a lot of SeanTs out there. I hear via a friend of a female member of the House of Lords who is refusing to leave home convinced she has the virus.
A cold and google are a deadly combination.
People refusing to leave home if they have even mild viral symptoms would actually be overall helpful for now, not deadly...
SK may be an odd comparator as so much of their initial transmission was within a large but relatively easily traced and tested cluster (that religious movement). That will have affected the temporal pattern of their test results.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
Good news on the number of new infections counter-balanced by disappointing news on the number of tests done. If capacity cannot keep up with demand, which surely it can't now, then I wonder if the plan is to switch to a more clinical diagnosis at some point.
It might seem odd but I recollect there being fewer tests reported on Monday/Tuesday last week and someone (?Foxy) explained that as being due to a 24-48 hour turnaround time and fewer labs (and hence tests) working on the weekend... agree that I would have hoped we could be accelerating the tests more than we have done - not sure what / how we do that....
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
If it is the weekend effect, then we will know tommorow, as there would be a jump with Mondays tests. I think it two early for any social distancing or handwashing to have made a difference.
I really hope we can expand capacity. South Korea have done 200k tests among a similar sized population. We seemed to start off well, but really need capacity ramping up ASAP.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
Good news on the number of new infections counter-balanced by disappointing news on the number of tests done. If capacity cannot keep up with demand, which surely it can't now, then I wonder if the plan is to switch to a more clinical diagnosis at some point.
Is there a demand for more tests? How would we know?
The 4.2% of positive tests is the highest rate for a single day (other than the 2 out of 16 on 31 January).
SK may be an odd comparator as so much of their initial transmission was within a large but relatively easily traced and tested cluster (that religious movement). That will have affected the temporal pattern of their test results.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
The massive testing they have rolled out quickly will also have helped SK establish if / where there has been further spread (without having to individually track down every single loony cult members movements).
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
Given we are staying at over 95% of tests being negative it seems like we are surely doing ok on the testing front right now.
Something from the Lancet that I think anyone should read before continuing to discuss pros/cons of what we "should" be doing...
How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, T Déirdre Hollingsworth. Published March 09, 2020
This is a pretty much up-to-date must-read on mitigation measures. Anderson (who's at Imperial, for those who are partisan about these things) is a legend in the field of infectious disease modelling.
But interestingly, I don't think anyone who's been following PB closely over the past few days will find much new in it. Perhaps an indication of just how tricky the contact-tracing is? Indication of what the experts really think (as distinct from commentariat froth) and what uncertainties they face? Definitely the better comments below-the-line on PB have maintained a high quality of discussion and I don't think there's much here that's been missed.
This was a key point: How individuals respond to advice on how best to prevent transmission will be as important as government actions, if not more important... One thing the article fails to consider in any detail is how government actions might shape individuals' responses. If government doesn't seem to be taking it particularly seriously for now, a large number of people will not do so, either.
Panic buying bog-roll is a good leading indicator that the public are starting to take this virus seriously. I hope so anyway.
SK may be an odd comparator as so much of their initial transmission was within a large but relatively easily traced and tested cluster (that religious movement). That will have affected the temporal pattern of their test results.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
Do we even know where the UK clusters are? "NorthWest" says a lot less than, say, Manchester or Lancaster.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
If it is the weekend effect, then we will know tommorow, as there would be a jump with Mondays tests. I think it two early for any social distancing or handwashing to have made a difference.
Yes, there were 386 tests recorded last Tuesday and 2,748 recorded last Wednesday.
It looks as if we are about 6 weeks behind Korea, which fits with the prediction of a peak in late April/early May.
If we can get away with a similar trend to South Korea, it really will be more of a miracle than Leicester winning the EPL !!!!
One big worry I have is SK can easily isolate themselves from the outside world, not as draconian as China, but certainly more than what we are used to in Europe.
I think we will still be importing cases for many months.
The big thing we need is a some sort more instant / rapid test.
SK may be an odd comparator as so much of their initial transmission was within a large but relatively easily traced and tested cluster (that religious movement). That will have affected the temporal pattern of their test results.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
Do we even know where the UK clusters are? "NorthWest" says a lot less than, say, Manchester or Lancaster.
SK may be an odd comparator as so much of their initial transmission was within a large but relatively easily traced and tested cluster (that religious movement). That will have affected the temporal pattern of their test results.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
Do we even know where the UK clusters are? "NorthWest" says a lot less than, say, Manchester or Lancaster.
Does anyone know?
They release data by top tier local authority. Lots in London, but Devon is the current UK hotspot.
Something from the Lancet that I think anyone should read before continuing to discuss pros/cons of what we "should" be doing...
How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, T Déirdre Hollingsworth. Published March 09, 2020
This is a pretty much up-to-date must-read on mitigation measures. Anderson (who's at Imperial, for those who are partisan about these things) is a legend in the field of infectious disease modelling.
But interestingly, I don't think anyone who's been following PB closely over the past few days will find much new in it. Perhaps an indication of just how tricky the contact-tracing is? Indication of what the experts really think (as distinct from commentariat froth) and what uncertainties they face? Definitely the better comments below-the-line on PB have maintained a high quality of discussion and I don't think there's much here that's been missed.
This was a key point: How individuals respond to advice on how best to prevent transmission will be as important as government actions, if not more important... One thing the article fails to consider in any detail is how government actions might shape individuals' responses. If government doesn't seem to be taking it particularly seriously for now, a large number of people will not do so, either.
Panic buying bog-roll is a good leading indicator that the public are starting to take this virus seriously. I hope so anyway.
I buy a little bit more each time I go. I've accumulated quite a stockpile now, without looking like a panic buyer.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
Given we are staying at over 95% of tests being negative it seems like we are surely doing ok on the testing front right now.
Wasn't the testing criteria about to change as well? Is that having an effect?
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
It could be the effect of some behavioural changes. If people are panic buying soap and so on, hopefully it means they are actually washing their hands more. I suspect we are already seeing the effects of some voluntary event cancellations and home working as well. Basically there must be a fair bit of already doing what the government is about to mandate.
My company has just moved to 80% homeworking today. Only short collab periods Monday and Tuesday otherwise 100% remote for all workers.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
Good news on the number of new infections counter-balanced by disappointing news on the number of tests done. If capacity cannot keep up with demand, which surely it can't now, then I wonder if the plan is to switch to a more clinical diagnosis at some point.
It might seem odd but I recollect there being fewer tests reported on Monday/Tuesday last week and someone (?Foxy) explained that as being due to a 24-48 hour turnaround time and fewer labs (and hence tests) working on the weekend... agree that I would have hoped we could be accelerating the tests more than we have done - not sure what / how we do that....
Apparently PHE have been doing all the testing themselves. I assumed each hospital was processing their own home-brews but no.
I read yesterday that the plan is to allow hospitals to do their own testing, effectively doubling capacity to something like 4000 a day.
Something from the Lancet that I think anyone should read before continuing to discuss pros/cons of what we "should" be doing...
How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, T Déirdre Hollingsworth. Published March 09, 2020
This is a pretty much up-to-date must-read on mitigation measures. Anderson (who's at Imperial, for those who are partisan about these things) is a legend in the field of infectious disease modelling.
But interestingly, I don't think anyone who's been following PB closely over the past few days will find much new in it. Perhaps an indication of just how tricky the contact-tracing is? Indication of what the experts really think (as distinct from commentariat froth) and what uncertainties they face? Definitely the better comments below-the-line on PB have maintained a high quality of discussion and I don't think there's much here that's been missed.
This was a key point: How individuals respond to advice on how best to prevent transmission will be as important as government actions, if not more important... One thing the article fails to consider in any detail is how government actions might shape individuals' responses. If government doesn't seem to be taking it particularly seriously for now, a large number of people will not do so, either.
Panic buying bog-roll is a good leading indicator that the public are starting to take this virus seriously. I hope so anyway.
I buy a little bit more each time I go. I've accumulated quite a stockpile now, without looking like a panic buyer.
SK may be an odd comparator as so much of their initial transmission was within a large but relatively easily traced and tested cluster (that religious movement). That will have affected the temporal pattern of their test results.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
Do we even know where the UK clusters are? "NorthWest" says a lot less than, say, Manchester or Lancaster.
Does anyone know?
Torbay is one of them.
And sufficient London Boroughs to indicate that London will soon be topping the table, as NYC is now in the US
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
Good news on the number of new infections counter-balanced by disappointing news on the number of tests done. If capacity cannot keep up with demand, which surely it can't now, then I wonder if the plan is to switch to a more clinical diagnosis at some point.
It might seem odd but I recollect there being fewer tests reported on Monday/Tuesday last week and someone (?Foxy) explained that as being due to a 24-48 hour turnaround time and fewer labs (and hence tests) working on the weekend... agree that I would have hoped we could be accelerating the tests more than we have done - not sure what / how we do that....
Apparently PHE have been doing all the testing themselves. I assumed each hospital was processing their own home-brews but no.
I read yesterday that the plan is to allow hospitals to do their own testing, effectively doubling capacity to something like 4000 a day.
SK has the ability run about 15,000 diagnostic test per day...This is the sort of capacity we need.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
There is a lot of talk (On Twitter, I know) about people who on ringing 111 are being asked after they have described symptoms if they have been to a high risk are or in contact with someone who has, if they reply no they are told they have flu and aren’t being tested.
What we don't know is the other symptoms they might have and are actually very uncommon if you have it e.g. runny nose. It may well be all these folk on twitter ringing up aren't thinking about these additional questions they have been asked and think yes I told them I had a runny nose, so what.
Perhaps not.
Clinical presentation and virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in a travel-associated transmission cluster https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1 ....Proof of active viral replication in upper respiratory tract tissues was obtained by detection of subgenomic viral RNA. Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after about one week. Conclusions: The present study shows that COVID-19 can often present as a common cold-like illness. SARS-CoV-2 can actively replicate in the upper respiratory tract, and is shed for a prolonged time after symptoms end, including in stool. These findings suggest adjustments of current case definitions and re-evaluation of the prospects of outbreak containment....
SK may be an odd comparator as so much of their initial transmission was within a large but relatively easily traced and tested cluster (that religious movement). That will have affected the temporal pattern of their test results.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
Do we even know where the UK clusters are? "NorthWest" says a lot less than, say, Manchester or Lancaster.
Does anyone know?
Torbay is one of them.
And sufficient London Boroughs to indicate that London will soon be topping the table, as NYC is now in the US
If the government do implement some sort of inner M25 quarantine zone, lets pray they don't f##k it up like Italy and have everybody running to the 4 corners of the land. Needs to be announced at 2-3am and immediate.
SK may be an odd comparator as so much of their initial transmission was within a large but relatively easily traced and tested cluster (that religious movement). That will have affected the temporal pattern of their test results.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
Do we even know where the UK clusters are? "NorthWest" says a lot less than, say, Manchester or Lancaster.
Does anyone know?
Looking at the geography of what we do know, it seems to be fairly diffuse, with no clear nodal points.
Older sicker people catching it suggests domestic transmission likely.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
There is a lot of talk (On Twitter, I know) about people who on ringing 111 are being asked after they have described symptoms if they have been to a high risk are or in contact with someone who has, if they reply no they are told they have flu and aren’t being tested.
What we don't know is the other symptoms they might have and are actually very uncommon if you have it e.g. runny nose. It may well be all these folk on twitter ringing up aren't thinking about these additional questions they have been asked and think yes I told them I had a runny nose, so what.
Perhaps not.
Clinical presentation and virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in a travel-associated transmission cluster https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1 ....Proof of active viral replication in upper respiratory tract tissues was obtained by detection of subgenomic viral RNA. Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after about one week. Conclusions: The present study shows that COVID-19 can often present as a common cold-like illness. SARS-CoV-2 can actively replicate in the upper respiratory tract, and is shed for a prolonged time after symptoms end, including in stool. These findings suggest adjustments of current case definitions and re-evaluation of the prospects of outbreak containment....
I thought a runny nose/sneezing was not a symptom. This doesn't appear to suggest otherwise.
In a random sample of 301 employees of the Elisabeth-TweeSteden Hospital in Tilburg, 28 Covid-19 infections were discovered, the hospital announces on Tuesday. The test was carried out last weekend among employees who had mild respiratory complaints. It is noteworthy that the hospital staff tested were not at risk and had no contact with patients who had been diagnosed with an infection.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
There is a lot of talk (On Twitter, I know) about people who on ringing 111 are being asked after they have described symptoms if they have been to a high risk are or in contact with someone who has, if they reply no they are told they have flu and aren’t being tested.
What we don't know is the other symptoms they might have and are actually very uncommon if you have it e.g. runny nose. It may well be all these folk on twitter ringing up aren't thinking about these additional questions they have been asked and think yes I told them I had a runny nose, so what.
Perhaps not.
Clinical presentation and virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in a travel-associated transmission cluster https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1 ....Proof of active viral replication in upper respiratory tract tissues was obtained by detection of subgenomic viral RNA. Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after about one week. Conclusions: The present study shows that COVID-19 can often present as a common cold-like illness. SARS-CoV-2 can actively replicate in the upper respiratory tract, and is shed for a prolonged time after symptoms end, including in stool. These findings suggest adjustments of current case definitions and re-evaluation of the prospects of outbreak containment....
I am not going to chase down the paper, but in a large cohort study, only a very small percentage of people who had it also had a runny nose. I think in the range of 10%.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
Good news on the number of new infections counter-balanced by disappointing news on the number of tests done. If capacity cannot keep up with demand, which surely it can't now, then I wonder if the plan is to switch to a more clinical diagnosis at some point.
It might seem odd but I recollect there being fewer tests reported on Monday/Tuesday last week and someone (?Foxy) explained that as being due to a 24-48 hour turnaround time and fewer labs (and hence tests) working on the weekend... agree that I would have hoped we could be accelerating the tests more than we have done - not sure what / how we do that....
Apparently PHE have been doing all the testing themselves. I assumed each hospital was processing their own home-brews but no.
I read yesterday that the plan is to allow hospitals to do their own testing, effectively doubling capacity to something like 4000 a day.
SK has the ability run about 15,000 diagnostic test per day...This is the sort of capacity we need.
I think they have mix of different tests whch allows them to get those higher numbers.
In their rapid access clinic they are running a different form of test which is less sensitive but much faster. This is probably for screening the worried but well who are rocking up in cars.
For confirmatory diagnosis on a smaller sample they will be using a similar method to us - a PCR-based assay which requires 48 hours to process.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
It could be the effect of some behavioural changes. If people are panic buying soap and so on, hopefully it means they are actually washing their hands more. I suspect we are already seeing the effects of some voluntary event cancellations and home working as well. Basically there must be a fair bit of already doing what the government is about to mandate.
My company has just moved to 80% homeworking today. Only short collab periods Monday and Tuesday otherwise 100% remote for all workers.
That's what I was getting at, although I broadly agree that the goverment should say "JFDI" it does seem that a lot of companies are already implementing travel bans, visitor bans, inter-site movement bans, and home working where possible.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
There is a lot of talk (On Twitter, I know) about people who on ringing 111 are being asked after they have described symptoms if they have been to a high risk are or in contact with someone who has, if they reply no they are told they have flu and aren’t being tested.
What we don't know is the other symptoms they might have and are actually very uncommon if you have it e.g. runny nose. It may well be all these folk on twitter ringing up aren't thinking about these additional questions they have been asked and think yes I told them I had a runny nose, so what.
Perhaps not.
Clinical presentation and virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in a travel-associated transmission cluster https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1 ....Proof of active viral replication in upper respiratory tract tissues was obtained by detection of subgenomic viral RNA. Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after about one week. Conclusions: The present study shows that COVID-19 can often present as a common cold-like illness. SARS-CoV-2 can actively replicate in the upper respiratory tract, and is shed for a prolonged time after symptoms end, including in stool. These findings suggest adjustments of current case definitions and re-evaluation of the prospects of outbreak containment....
I thought a runny nose/sneezing was not a symptom. This doesn't appear to suggest otherwise.
I have had a bit of a runny nose for a few days now, but no fever or aches and pains.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
Good news on the number of new infections counter-balanced by disappointing news on the number of tests done. If capacity cannot keep up with demand, which surely it can't now, then I wonder if the plan is to switch to a more clinical diagnosis at some point.
It might seem odd but I recollect there being fewer tests reported on Monday/Tuesday last week and someone (?Foxy) explained that as being due to a 24-48 hour turnaround time and fewer labs (and hence tests) working on the weekend... agree that I would have hoped we could be accelerating the tests more than we have done - not sure what / how we do that....
Apparently PHE have been doing all the testing themselves. I assumed each hospital was processing their own home-brews but no.
I read yesterday that the plan is to allow hospitals to do their own testing, effectively doubling capacity to something like 4000 a day.
SK has the ability run about 15,000 diagnostic test per day...This is the sort of capacity we need.
I think they have mix of different tests whch allows them to get those higher numbers.
In their rapid access clinic they are running a different form of test which is less sensitive but much faster. This is probably for screening the worried but well who are rocking up in cars.
For confirmatory diagnosis on a smaller sample they will be using a similar method to us - a PCR-based assay which requires 48 hours to process.
That's what I am guessing anyway.
Lets get bloody doing that then...get the SeanT's of this world screened with the less sensitive test and not bogging down 111.
SK may be an odd comparator as so much of their initial transmission was within a large but relatively easily traced and tested cluster (that religious movement). That will have affected the temporal pattern of their test results.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
Do we even know where the UK clusters are? "NorthWest" says a lot less than, say, Manchester or Lancaster.
Will any other political leader, citing the need for stability, be bold enough to follow Vladimir Vladimirovich's lead?
How long will Russia remain stable, if the oil price sticks at $20 or $25?
The Arabs reckon they can ride it out for a while with currency reserves, how long can Putin go?
In totally unrelated news, rouble down 15% vs US$ in the past week.
His lack of cooperation with OPEC seems to indicate he is aware of his limitations. If the Arabs reckon as you said, are they reckoning correctly? What's your take, close as you are?
Well, MBS and MBZ are as bullish as they always are, they have a lot of cash reserves and state-owned businesses that can be floated - but against that the travel market seizing up is going to hurt them, as well as the low oil price. Local currencies are fixed wrt the US$, so that's neutral, and the population (of locals) are happy and well looked-after by the state. Inflation is close to zero, and large expatriate populations reduce the burden of layoffs if the economy contracts.
I don't know as much about Russia, but Wiki reckons their budget deficit is currently 3% of GDP (15% of govt spending). Certainly there's more scope for downside if inflation takes off and imports get more expensive, but they are self-sufficient in food and most essential goods, and Putin is generally well-liked by the population despite (or perhaps because) of his reputation abroad.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Did they post the number negative yesterday? You can see if the test rate is increasing in line with detection.
Cumulative total tests past 4 days.
21461 23513 24960 26261
So tests past 3 days
2052 1447 1301
Surely we should be testing more people every day, not less? I presume weekend effect.
Good news on the number of new infections counter-balanced by disappointing news on the number of tests done. If capacity cannot keep up with demand, which surely it can't now, then I wonder if the plan is to switch to a more clinical diagnosis at some point.
It might seem odd but I recollect there being fewer tests reported on Monday/Tuesday last week and someone (?Foxy) explained that as being due to a 24-48 hour turnaround time and fewer labs (and hence tests) working on the weekend... agree that I would have hoped we could be accelerating the tests more than we have done - not sure what / how we do that....
Apparently PHE have been doing all the testing themselves. I assumed each hospital was processing their own home-brews but no.
I read yesterday that the plan is to allow hospitals to do their own testing, effectively doubling capacity to something like 4000 a day.
SK has the ability run about 15,000 diagnostic test per day...This is the sort of capacity we need.
I think they have mix of different tests whch allows them to get those higher numbers.
In their rapid access clinic they are running a different form of test which is less sensitive but much faster. This is probably for screening the worried but well who are rocking up in cars.
For confirmatory diagnosis on a smaller sample they will be using a similar method to us - a PCR-based assay which requires 48 hours to process.
That's what I am guessing anyway.
Lets get bloody doing that then...get the SeanT's of this world screened with the less sensitive test and not bogging down 111.
Agreed. I very much hope best-practice is being shared.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
There is a lot of talk (On Twitter, I know) about people who on ringing 111 are being asked after they have described symptoms if they have been to a high risk are or in contact with someone who has, if they reply no they are told they have flu and aren’t being tested.
What we don't know is the other symptoms they might have and are actually very uncommon if you have it e.g. runny nose. It may well be all these folk on twitter ringing up aren't thinking about these additional questions they have been asked and think yes I told them I had a runny nose, so what.
Perhaps not.
Clinical presentation and virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in a travel-associated transmission cluster https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1 ....Proof of active viral replication in upper respiratory tract tissues was obtained by detection of subgenomic viral RNA. Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after about one week. Conclusions: The present study shows that COVID-19 can often present as a common cold-like illness. SARS-CoV-2 can actively replicate in the upper respiratory tract, and is shed for a prolonged time after symptoms end, including in stool. These findings suggest adjustments of current case definitions and re-evaluation of the prospects of outbreak containment....
I am not going to chase down the paper, but in a large cohort study, only a very small percentage of people who had it also had a runny nose. I think in the range of 10%.
Sure.
My point was that the cost of telling everyone (for a limited period of time) with a cold to stay at home is hardly an excessive burden on society.
And will also cut down on the number of colds and flu cases out there.
My biggest fear with the numbers not on the surface looking too bad (we all know exponential growth and all that), is that those kind of people are going to bugger off on their Easter holidays as normal.
I was having to explain yesterday to such types about yes 40 increase isn't many, but....
SK may be an odd comparator as so much of their initial transmission was within a large but relatively easily traced and tested cluster (that religious movement). That will have affected the temporal pattern of their test results.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
Do we even know where the UK clusters are? "NorthWest" says a lot less than, say, Manchester or Lancaster.
Does anyone know?
Torbay is one of them.
And sufficient London Boroughs to indicate that London will soon be topping the table, as NYC is now in the US
If the government do implement some sort of inner M25 quarantine zone, lets pray they don't f##k it up like Italy and have everybody running to the 4 corners of the land. Needs to be announced at 2-3am and immediate.
Except it doesnt. It will be present across the country anyway, they are trying to manage the levels of the virus, not eliminate it. This is because they are more scared by a second peak next winter than a manageable peak in April/May. So if they stop most people moving around the country that is all they were ever trying to achieve.
A travel ban will be mostly voluntary, effective because 90% of the people adhere to it, not something they need to enforce in a draconian fashion.
Will any other political leader, citing the need for stability, be bold enough to follow Vladimir Vladimirovich's lead?
How long will Russia remain stable, if the oil price sticks at $20 or $25?
The Arabs reckon they can ride it out for a while with currency reserves, how long can Putin go?
In totally unrelated news, rouble down 15% vs US$ in the past week.
Oil extraction costs are much higher in Russia than in most of the Gulf, so it's even more serious than that. In Saudi or the UAE, the marginal cost of production is perhaps only $10-12/barrel. So, $25 oil sucks, but at least they're making $15 of gross profit per barrel.
In Russia, the average cost of production is almost certainly in the high $20s, and for some fields will be much higher. This means Russia will actually be losing money on each barrel it produces. This should mean they shutter fields... but doing that can effect long-term recovery rates. So they'll keep pumping, even if it means they hemorrhage cash.
The thing is if one does change from shopping in Waitrose to the likes of Lidl, does one not run the risk of catching some other horrible disease that circulates among the peasants?
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
The thing is if one does change from shopping in Waitrose to the likes of Lidl, does one not run the risk of catching some other horrible disease that circulates among the peasants?
Indeed, I've often suggested to Waitrose and Sainsbury's that only higher rate taxpayers be allowed to be shop there.
If you need to use a peasant wagon to get to Waitrose/MS/Sainsbury's then you should NOT be allowed in.
Royal Caribbean now junk bond status according to Bloomberg Markets
The plunge in oil prices could see some big energy names go the same way, according to some analysts.
Oxy, Apache, Marathon and Hess all cited as at risk.
A lot of the Permian basin drillers have borrowed well beyond cash flows, because investors rewarded growth not profitability. There will be a lot of bankrupcies there.
And, of course, the oil service names that have borrowed to build rigs that they rent to oil companies will be in trouble too.
Private debt funds have lent a lot of the money. Those funds are still pretending everything is OK.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
Will any other political leader, citing the need for stability, be bold enough to follow Vladimir Vladimirovich's lead?
How long will Russia remain stable, if the oil price sticks at $20 or $25?
The Arabs reckon they can ride it out for a while with currency reserves, how long can Putin go?
In totally unrelated news, rouble down 15% vs US$ in the past week.
Oil extraction costs are much higher in Russia than in most of the Gulf, so it's even more serious than that. In Saudi or the UAE, the marginal cost of production is perhaps only $10-12/barrel. So, $25 oil sucks, but at least they're making $15 of gross profit per barrel.
In Russia, the average cost of production is almost certainly in the high $20s, and for some fields will be much higher. This means Russia will actually be losing money on each barrel it produces. This should mean they shutter fields... but doing that can effect long-term recovery rates. So they'll keep pumping, even if it means they hemorrhage cash.
I knew someone would know more about the Russian oil market. Thanks!
Saudi Aramco reckon their marginal cost is $2.80 / barrel. It's going to be more than that in practice, but yes the Arabs can go a lot lower than the Russians.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
The thing is if one does change from shopping in Waitrose to the likes of Lidl, does one not run the risk of catching some other horrible disease that circulates among the peasants?
Indeed, I've often suggested to Waitrose and Sainsbury's that only higher rate taxpayers be allowed to be shop there.
If you need to use a peasant wagon to get to Waitrose/MS/Sainsbury's then you should NOT be allowed in.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
So past 2 days, increase of 17% each day...compared to 30-40% daily increases across the previous week.
That should be good news, but I think it is concerning...are we now not testing enough people? Or are we going to get the explosion in numbers in the next 2-3 days?
Unless I am missing something, if we are still only testing around 1000 people a day and there is a 4 day delay in getting the results then surely, by definition, there can't be a huge leap in confirmed cases.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The UK's super spreader had visited the Alps for a skiing holiday so I have this belief that the coronavirus spreads more in really cold environments.
Again, very interesting that it seems some people might have a built in immunity to this disease...
Malta has confirmed its fifth case of Covid-19, the Times of Malta reports, after an existing patient’s daughter tested positive for the coronavirus. The 16-year-old was reported to be in good health. She and her father, 49, had been on a ski trip to Trentino Alto Adige in Italy between 23-27 February, returning via Treviso.
Her mother tested negative for the virus.
This mirrors the story of a British guy who again got it skiing in Northern Italy. He spent all his time with his wife, they returned, he felt ill, she looked after him for over a week, she tested negative.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
Royal Caribbean now junk bond status according to Bloomberg Markets
The plunge in oil prices could see some big energy names go the same way, according to some analysts.
Oxy, Apache, Marathon and Hess all cited as at risk.
A lot of the Permian basin drillers have borrowed well beyond cash flows, because investors rewarded growth not profitability. There will be a lot of bankrupcies there.
And, of course, the oil service names that have borrowed to build rigs that they rent to oil companies will be in trouble too.
Private debt funds have lent a lot of the money. Those funds are still pretending everything is OK.
Quite although I understand the Permian guys are a bit more resilient to price falls after the Saudis tried to shut them down in 2016.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
He'll have been wearing a mask and gloves during surgery, so I wouldn't worry too much.
What about all the chats before / after surgery? Where they often like to come around and check that everything is in order. Also the meeting with all the other surgeons.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
The half-term skiing holiday in Northern Italy is the very preserve of the entitled Remainer middle-classes.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.
Reading all the different countries announcing cases, just so many appear to have exported all around Europe from those skiing in Northern Italy, you wonder just how it broke out there, how long it has been circulating. It literally must have been everywhere.
That has been clear for some time. Very unfortunately, Italy missed the initial bout of infections.
Comments
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1237369350601965568?s=20
https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1237362407506313216
The Arabs reckon they can ride it out for a while with currency reserves, how long can Putin go?
In totally unrelated news, rouble down 15% vs US$ in the past week.
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1237081444117348354
A cold and google are a deadly combination.
If the Arabs reckon as you said, are they reckoning correctly? What's your take, close as you are?
How individuals respond to advice on how best to prevent transmission will be as important as government actions, if not more important...
One thing the article fails to consider in any detail is how government actions might shape individuals' responses. If government doesn't seem to be taking it particularly seriously for now, a large number of people will not do so, either.
In contrast it doesn't sound from public statements like the UK authorities have managed to get a handle on any of our homegrown clusters, let alone isolate and deal with them. They do seem pretty sure we have a few, but presumably small or in their early stages.
The 4.2% of positive tests is the highest rate for a single day (other than the 2 out of 16 on 31 January).
Oxy, Apache, Marathon and Hess all cited as at risk.
Does anyone know?
One big worry I have is SK can easily isolate themselves from the outside world, not as draconian as China, but certainly more than what we are used to in Europe.
I think we will still be importing cases for many months.
The big thing we need is a some sort more instant / rapid test.
I read yesterday that the plan is to allow hospitals to do their own testing, effectively doubling capacity to something like 4000 a day.
Clinical presentation and virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in a travel-associated transmission cluster
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20030502v1
....Proof of active viral replication in upper respiratory tract tissues was obtained by detection of subgenomic viral RNA. Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after about one week. Conclusions: The present study shows that COVID-19 can often present as a common cold-like illness. SARS-CoV-2 can actively replicate in the upper respiratory tract, and is shed for a prolonged time after symptoms end, including in stool. These findings suggest adjustments of current case definitions and re-evaluation of the prospects of outbreak containment....
Older sicker people catching it suggests domestic transmission likely.
North Korea not sounding good.
Coronavirus Kills 180 North Korean Soldiers, Thousands More Quarantined: Report https://www.theepochtimes.com/coronavirus-kills-180-north-korean-soldiers-thousands-more-quarantined-report_3266322.html
In a random sample of 301 employees of the Elisabeth-TweeSteden Hospital in Tilburg, 28 Covid-19 infections were discovered, the hospital announces on Tuesday. The test was carried out last weekend among employees who had mild respiratory complaints. It is noteworthy that the hospital staff tested were not at risk and had no contact with patients who had been diagnosed with an infection.
In their rapid access clinic they are running a different form of test which is less sensitive but much faster. This is probably for screening the worried but well who are rocking up in cars.
For confirmatory diagnosis on a smaller sample they will be using a similar method to us - a PCR-based assay which requires 48 hours to process.
That's what I am guessing anyway.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england
I don't know as much about Russia, but Wiki reckons their budget deficit is currently 3% of GDP (15% of govt spending). Certainly there's more scope for downside if inflation takes off and imports get more expensive, but they are self-sufficient in food and most essential goods, and Putin is generally well-liked by the population despite (or perhaps because) of his reputation abroad.
My point was that the cost of telling everyone (for a limited period of time) with a cold to stay at home is hardly an excessive burden on society.
And will also cut down on the number of colds and flu cases out there.
Their supermarkets of choice are Waitrose & Marks and Spencer.
So, I recommend Aldi/Lidl/Tesco for maximum safety when panic-buying.
Also, for the good of your health, avoid any gathering of the entitled middle-classes.
Like this one, taking place in 3 days time,
https://www.libdems.org.uk/spring-conference
I was having to explain yesterday to such types about yes 40 increase isn't many, but....
A travel ban will be mostly voluntary, effective because 90% of the people adhere to it, not something they need to enforce in a draconian fashion.
In Russia, the average cost of production is almost certainly in the high $20s, and for some fields will be much higher. This means Russia will actually be losing money on each barrel it produces. This should mean they shutter fields... but doing that can effect long-term recovery rates. So they'll keep pumping, even if it means they hemorrhage cash.
A TOP British surgeon who has tested positive for coronavirus may have infected hundreds of vulnerable patients as he failed to self-isolate after contracting the killer bug on holiday in Italy.
The dad, who operates on anyone with a range of conditions from cancer to sinus disease, did not self-isolate and carried on with his work as usual.
It is believed he attended a team meeting at the hospital last Wednesday alongside dozens of other surgeons - who all went on to treat patients not knowing they may have come into contact with the killer virus.
He was asked to go home by the hospital later in the day after he started to feel ill and has since tested positive for coronavirus.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11138167/top-brit-surgeon-positive-coronavirus/
Not sure I would want her as leader, despite that.
If you need to use a peasant wagon to get to Waitrose/MS/Sainsbury's then you should NOT be allowed in.
And, of course, the oil service names that have borrowed to build rigs that they rent to oil companies will be in trouble too.
Private debt funds have lent a lot of the money. Those funds are still pretending everything is OK.
Saudi Aramco reckon their marginal cost is $2.80 / barrel. It's going to be more than that in practice, but yes the Arabs can go a lot lower than the Russians.
Liverpool FC & Grand National implications ?
Malta has confirmed its fifth case of Covid-19, the Times of Malta reports, after an existing patient’s daughter tested positive for the coronavirus. The 16-year-old was reported to be in good health. She and her father, 49, had been on a ski trip to Trentino Alto Adige in Italy between 23-27 February, returning via Treviso.
Her mother tested negative for the virus.
This mirrors the story of a British guy who again got it skiing in Northern Italy. He spent all his time with his wife, they returned, he felt ill, she looked after him for over a week, she tested negative.
So, we expect to see Coronavirus hotspots develop in the Remainer cities & towns. Brighton, Oxford, London, Herts.
By contrast, nothing has been reported in the Welsh Valleys. The Rhondda, Ponty, Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale -- all completely free of the virus.