On the monarchy, worth remembering that Charles is 71. All those wanting the monarchy to skip a generation may get their wish.
We could have a regency this year with the Duke of York and Prince Harry running the show.
As Harry has been fired, surely Andrew gets a solo gig. If the youngsters were also to succumb do we get King Andrew?
I think there still haven't been any deaths in under-tens so there's no chance that all four of the Royal great-grandchildren will fall victim to the virus, but avoiding making Andrew Regent would be a bit awkward and not doing so even more so.
Under the terms of the Regency Act, Harry would still be Regent ahead of Andrew.
If Andrew became the anointed one, I suspect he would suffer a mysterious nasty accident. Or perhaps, like Epstein, he would decide life was no longer worth living.
You’re suggesting there’s an Epstein bar to the succession ...?
Very good. Almost as good as puns about the royal succession being decided by a corona.
Naive question I'm sure but how can Milan be in lockdown if Ryanair (and others no doubt) are regularly flying in and out of it right now and tomorrow?
Given the occurrence of very senior people getting COVID-19 in badly affected countries (number of Iranian MPs have even died, Italian Army chief today, anyone think there must be a serious possibility of leading American politicians getting it (not to mention other countries). And given that the age profile of many US politicians is well in the danger zone, the chances of actual deaths must be very high. And this in an election year.
Rumours that Germany is closing borders and starting mass quarantine.
EDIT: Ah, there is another rumour that the reason Germany is posting no deaths is because of their privacy laws. No idea if this is true.
No, that's nonsense.
Fair enough! You should know.
A lot of people on Twitter are puzzled by the huge difference between France and Germany, on deaths, which have very similar case numbers. It is curious.
Although Westchester County now has the biggest outbreak in the US, at 83 cases, there was no, repeat NO, signs of panic buying of toilet paper at the C-Town supermarket in Tarrytown today: in fact it looks like the store got extra deliveries in in anticipation of higher demand and is struggling to find space to put them.
Listening to that podcast I linked down thread, rather worrying that at the time of recording apparently none of the Big Pharma companies see this as a money making opportunity and so haven't ramped up R&D on a vaccine.
The annual flu season is over just a few months too - and well over 600k Italians die annually in total so you're talking a 10% variation on normal. Not nice or pleasant, but not biblical or medieval or whatever other exaggeration you want to throw at it today.
Also, given that many of the 60k would be elderly people with preexisting conditions, a large number, perhaps the majority, would have died this year anyway of something else.
One of the big winners from a widespread pandemic like this if it escalates will be the pensions industry. In fact, the conspiracy theory writes itself. A great plot for a thriller writer, if anybody knows one of those.
I think Michael Crichton wrote a novel about eco-terrorists who planted a nuclear device on the mid-Atlantic ridge. Given the effect on the airline industry, the reduction in air pollution from the Chinese shutdown, the almost suspicious lack of deaths among the young - you could write a similar thriller pointing the finger at a school climate striker with a flair for virology...
If I had to go All Grassy Knoll, I'd say this virus was a CIA plot to stop China taking over from America as the global hegemon. Pretty damn successful.... but then it potentially backfired....
Given the occurrence of very senior people getting COVID-19 in badly affected countries (number of Iranian MPs have even died, Italian Army chief today, anyone think there must be a serious possibility of leading American politicians getting it (not to mention other countries). And given that the age profile of many US politicians is well in the danger zone, the chances of actual deaths must be very high. And this in an election year.
There have been cases confirmed for attendees of CPAC and AIPAC - events attended by many senior Republican politicians including the President and vice-President.
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
Rumours that Germany is closing borders and starting mass quarantine.
EDIT: Ah, there is another rumour that the reason Germany is posting no deaths is because of their privacy laws. No idea if this is true.
No, that's nonsense.
Fair enough! You should know.
A lot of people on Twitter are puzzled by the huge difference between France and Germany, on deaths, which have very similar case numbers. It is curious.
It's very difficult for me to reply to that remark without saying anything which could then be construed to constitute "gloating" by people of ill will.
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
Not sure that's necessarily true. Brits are very resistant to letting the virus affect their lives on a fundamental level, but I reckon there has been a big change in approach to more mundane things like hygiene and taking basic precautionary measures etc.
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
No one can criticise you for not trying.
Meanwhile four hours of build up to the big doggie prize....
86,175 spectators for the Women's World T20 Final at the MCG.
To put that in context, the highest number of spectators across a 5-day Test in England was 158,000 at Leeds in 1948, when a certain Mr D. G. Bradman was batting.
And to think it nearly didn't go to the MCG because the ACB were afraid nobody would turn up...
86,175 spectators for the Women's World T20 Final at the MCG.
To put that in context, the highest number of spectators across a 5-day Test in England was 158,000 at Leeds in 1948, when a certain Mr D. G. Bradman was batting.
And to think it nearly didn't go to the MCG because the ACB were afraid nobody would turn up...
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
Some details from on the virus from the Chinese General Office of the National Health Commission (includes pathology details from autopsies, so not for the squeamish). Unofficial translation:
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
I have to say I was rather taken aback when I got a WhatsApp from a long term friend this morning, who is a well respected academic in their field, telling me flu kills 10,000 oldies a year in the UK, so this is no biggie and thought the government was over reacting.
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
My wife's mother is an intelligent woman in her early 50s. Well educated, degree, senior teacher just retired.
She is barely aware that coronavirus EXISTS, let alone that it is a national emergency. She doesn't read or watch much news, she is obsessed with climate change and XR, she's buying a new house in Brighton (little does she know this will likely all fall through)
If someone like her isn't even aware of this thing then we are in trouble.
We need big scary ads on the TV, like we had in the first days of AIDS. We need tombstones and sombre music.
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
I have to say I was rather taken aback when I got a WhatsApp from a long term friend this morning, who is a well respected academic in their field, telling me flu kills 10,000 oldies a year in the UK, so this is no biggie and thought the government was over reacting.
A lot rests on how the virus will react to warmer temperatures. Because if it reacts badly (ie. in our favour) then the number of deaths really might be pretty relatively low.
Following on from my intensive and well-received discussion on Norwegian politics (thanks for the kind word, Nick), the latest Norfakta poll has the AP on 26%, Hojre on 21% and Centre on 16% so the traditional AP-Centre-Socialist Left is on 49%.
If you want to do complicated politics, go to the Netherlands. 13% gets you to the top of the polls and it's about as fragmented as it gets. The parties of the governing coalition are down from 49% in the 2017 election to just 34% now. The two big winners are the Labour Party and the Forum for Democracy whose combined share was 7.5% in 2017 and is 22% now.
In Italy, while Lega hovers around or just above 30%, the big news in the latest poll is that M5S (Grillo's party) is now fourth with third being taken by Brothers of Italy (FdI) who have basically taken over from Forza Italia as the main populist party on the right.
In Germany, the latest Kantar Poll has the CDU/CSU on 24%, the Greens on 22%, SPD on 17% and AfD on 14% with Linke on 9% and FDP on 7%.
We have French municipal elections coming up with the first round of voting next Sunday. In Paris, Incumbent Socialist Mayor Anne Higaldo is leading the Republican candidate Rachida Dati by 25-24 in the latest poll with Agnes Buzyn, the En Marche supported candidate who replaced Benjamin Griveaux last month, a close third on 19%. in fourth is the Green David Belliard on 12%.
While I suspect the bulk of the Belliard voters would back Hidalgo in the second ballot, I'm less certain which way the Buzyn supporters would jump.
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
Thankfully that's not really true. It will be an average effect over the whole population. An irresponsibly minority is a real hindrance, but a responsible majority will still have an effect.
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
Thankfully that's not really true. It will be an average effect over the whole population. An irresponsibly minority is a real hindrance, but a responsible majority will still have an effect.
Once the panic buyers have stocked up, they'll be an oversupply for the rest of us. Panic buying only really becomes a problem if it results in supply shortages to the supermarkets. Supermarkets have some tricky decisions to make not to get caught with too much stock though.
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
I have to say I was rather taken aback when I got a WhatsApp from a long term friend this morning, who is a well respected academic in their field, telling me flu kills 10,000 oldies a year in the UK, so this is no biggie and thought the government was over reacting.
A lot rests on how the virus will react to warmer temperatures. Because if it reacts badly (ie. in our favour) then the number of deaths really might be pretty relatively low.
Even assuming the best and it isn't too much worse than a really bad flu season, it was the claim the government is over reacting that took me aback. Italy sticking 16 million people in lock down and at the moment the UK government is telling people to wash their hands and get tested seems in anything not over reacting enough (I expect that to change tomorrow).
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
Thankfully that's not really true. It will be an average effect over the whole population. An irresponsibly minority is a real hindrance, but a responsible majority will still have an effect.
Once the panic buyers have stocked up, they'll be an oversupply for the rest of us. Panic buying only really becomes a problem if it results in supply shortages to the supermarkets. Supermarkets have some tricky decisions to make not to get caught with too much stock though.
As most of the panic buy goods are non perishables, that’s not so big of a problem though.
Does anyone know the names of his other 5 'official' kids?
2 sons and 2 daughters with ex-wife Marina Wheeler and a daughter with Helen MacIntyre. I know there are rumours of a sixth child with another woman but we're never going to know unless she goes public.
If we can find out the names of the others, it could give us a handle on the kind of names Boris prefers.
Of course there's always the possibility that he lets their mothers have the final say.
One thing I am wondering from the Chinese experience and revealing lots of damage to organs etc. I wonder given for many they won't have been in contact with that level of diagnostic medicine before, how much of it is simply picking up they weren't that healthy to start with.
Does anyone know the names of his other 5 'official' kids?
2 sons and 2 daughters with ex-wife Marina Wheeler and a daughter with Helen MacIntyre. I know there are rumours of a sixth child with another woman but we're never going to know unless she goes public.
If we can find out the names of the others, it could give us a handle on the kind of names Boris prefers.
Of course there's always the possibility that he lets their mothers have the final say.
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
I have to say I was rather taken aback when I got a WhatsApp from a long term friend this morning, who is a well respected academic in their field, telling me flu kills 10,000 oldies a year in the UK, so this is no biggie and thought the government was over reacting.
A lot rests on how the virus will react to warmer temperatures. Because if it reacts badly (ie. in our favour) then the number of deaths really might be pretty relatively low.
Even assuming the best and it isn't too much worse than a really bad flu season, it was the claim the government is over reacting that took me aback. Italy sticking 16 million people in lock down and at the moment the UK government is telling people to wash their hands and get tested seems in anything not over reacting enough (I expect that to change tomorrow).
Normalcy Bias.
People don't want to believe really bad news, indeed some simply cannot compute it.
This was from somebody who deals with stats for a living as an academic.
Just back from an unavoidable foray outside which involved touching some potentially unsavoury surfaces. Key thing, therefore, no touching of face until home regained and hands washed thoroughly with soap and warm water. Easier said than done. Nose very itchy and extremely difficult not to attend to it. Managed it though. This thing focuses the mind.
BTW, spoke to my brother today - he's senior in the NHS - and he told me that the tests for the virus are taking 5 days to process and generate a result. Therefore the figures for confirmed cases in the UK are well in arrears. There will be many more positives than have yet been reported.
I had barely been out all week, and have been washing my hands whilst singing "Happy Birthday Mr President" 20 times a day, then at football yesterday I walked into the toilets to clean my boots with just socks on my feet.
See you on the other side
Further to this, I can report the level of alarm in an Essex Mens Veterans League football changing room about the lurgi is...
Practically zero.
I was the only one to mention it, one of our players said he had been laid up all week with "flu" yet didn't make any kind of worrying link. The ref said he would understand if we didn't shake hands with the oppo afterwards though.
Naive question I'm sure but how can Milan be in lockdown if Ryanair (and others no doubt) are regularly flying in and out of it right now and tomorrow?
I was confused by a BBC story about some tourists in Venice who heard that people weren't going to be allowed to leave, and therefore flew home immediately. ?
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
Thankfully that's not really true. It will be an average effect over the whole population. An irresponsibly minority is a real hindrance, but a responsible majority will still have an effect.
Once the panic buyers have stocked up, they'll be an oversupply for the rest of us. Panic buying only really becomes a problem if it results in supply shortages to the supermarkets. Supermarkets have some tricky decisions to make not to get caught with too much stock though.
I was replying to a post about people coughing on trains. Panic buying of toilet rolls isn't going to kill anyone.
Does anyone know the names of his other 5 'official' kids?
2 sons and 2 daughters with ex-wife Marina Wheeler and a daughter with Helen MacIntyre. I know there are rumours of a sixth child with another woman but we're never going to know unless she goes public.
If we can find out the names of the others, it could give us a handle on the kind of names Boris prefers.
Of course there's always the possibility that he lets their mothers have the final say.
See the final paragraph of the thread header.
Doh! I didn't read that bit. Well with names like that and the possibility that Carrie might have different ideas I wouldn't touch that market, the prices are all too short and there's too much opportunity for insider betting by the staff at Downing Street and others who might be in the know.
Is incredible that Singapore has no deaths or Germany. Either they need to get their numbers down on the lottery or they are being a bit canny with the declarations for reason of death.
e.g by the sounds of it one of the UK deaths could easily have been claimed to have been not due to Coronavirus, due to basically being a very sick individual who had been in and out of hospital numerous times recently.
The media reported that case as being death “with” not “of” coronavirus
Does anyone know the names of his other 5 'official' kids?
2 sons and 2 daughters with ex-wife Marina Wheeler and a daughter with Helen MacIntyre. I know there are rumours of a sixth child with another woman but we're never going to know unless she goes public.
If we can find out the names of the others, it could give us a handle on the kind of names Boris prefers.
Of course there's always the possibility that he lets their mothers have the final say.
See the final paragraph of the thread header.
Doh! I didn't read that bit. Well with names like that and the possibility that Carrie might have different ideas I wouldn't touch that market, the prices are all too short and there's too much opportunity for insider betting by the staff at Downing Street and others who might be in the know.
Yes, it’s like betting on the VP market - the outcome is someone’s personal free choice, and most normal people are playing with very imperfect information relative to others.
Given that 10% seems to be an average hospitalisation rate, either they’ve had a bunch of old people’s homes infected, or the infected-but-not-in-hospital figure is way lower than it should actually be.
Italy changed the calculation procedures starting from 27th February. Those without symptoms isolated at home are not computed as earlier. They say it explains why the "isolated at home" number is not increasing anymore. They say it is not to conform what it is done in other countries.
Does anyone know the names of his other 5 'official' kids?
2 sons and 2 daughters with ex-wife Marina Wheeler and a daughter with Helen MacIntyre. I know there are rumours of a sixth child with another woman but we're never going to know unless she goes public.
If we can find out the names of the others, it could give us a handle on the kind of names Boris prefers.
Of course there's always the possibility that he lets their mothers have the final say.
See the final paragraph of the thread header.
Doh! I didn't read that bit. Well with names like that and the possibility that Carrie might have different ideas I wouldn't touch that market, the prices are all too short and there's too much opportunity for insider betting by the staff at Downing Street and others who might be in the know.
Boudicca. Currently in favour with the posh, and spot-on combo of classical history and English nationalism.
Given that 10% seems to be an average hospitalisation rate, either they’ve had a bunch of old people’s homes infected, or the infected-but-not-in-hospital figure is way lower than it should actually be.
I reckon the latter, which means that it's out of control in Italy, it's spreading faster than the authorities can test and isolate.
Given that 10% seems to be an average hospitalisation rate, either they’ve had a bunch of old people’s homes infected, or the infected-but-not-in-hospital figure is way lower than it should actually be.
I reckon the latter, which means that it's out of control in Italy, it's spreading faster than the authorities can test and isolate.
The East Asians understand at an individual level how to beat epidemics. Top down interventions organise them but without a fundamental willingness to comply, it won't work. I suggest it is cultural behaviour which will come to be shown as the key determinant.
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
This is why the British public need to be terrified into obedience. Far too many of my educated friends are still entirely nonchalant (Oh it's like Y2K, or the Bird Flu scare etc), even when the evidence is there in front of them.
The paradox is we need some panic. If we can horrify everyone, then we have a much better chance of the most horrific outcome not happening.
I agree. Panic buying bog rolls is progress as it suggests some psychological breakthrough from denial or wanton ignorance to action. In any case, that particular commodity scarcity can be ameliorated quite easily by supermarkets setting appropriate policy.
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
I have to say I was rather taken aback when I got a WhatsApp from a long term friend this morning, who is a well respected academic in their field, telling me flu kills 10,000 oldies a year in the UK, so this is no biggie and thought the government was over reacting.
Presumably that field is not Medicine, or Statistics.
The actual UK average is in the hundreds, according to researchers from Oxford, with the very occasional year being up around 10,000 (eg 2008-9).
Comments
By contrast, the British are the least concerned about this virus and have seemingly changed behaviour the least. I observe a wanton ignorance in our society that is going to be a severe impediment to tackling the epidemic.
Apparently most Germany cases are quite young? They caught it at a carnival.
Meanwhile four hours of build up to the big doggie prize....
86,175 spectators for the Women's World T20 Final at the MCG.
To put that in context, the highest number of spectators across a 5-day Test in England was 158,000 at Leeds in 1948, when a certain Mr D. G. Bradman was batting.
And to think it nearly didn't go to the MCG because the ACB were afraid nobody would turn up...
Maybe the modern version of that should be Man City v Chelsea.
Although come to think of it, that would now be Anne, and then her children, not Andrew.
I don’t want to reopen the discussion on the last thread.
But if you are willing to pay Kensington prices, I have plenty of houses in World’s End I can source for you. I’ll only take a small percentage.
(In fairness that has happened before Brexit).
But look in any newspaper comments page or Facebook post and there are many many deniers. These are people that scoff and sneer at guidance about washing hands and so get on trains coughing and spluttering. In short, they are cretins.
For matters of public health we can only be as good as our weakest links.
But there is the easiest of easy answers. Make the 2013 Act retrospective.
Unofficial translation:
Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (Provisional 7th Edition)
https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/en/coronavirus-treatment-plan-7/
Like the furore over the death of Diana I'm resigned to the fact this is something I'm never going to understand.
Not one I'm crowing over.
If you want to do complicated politics, go to the Netherlands. 13% gets you to the top of the polls and it's about as fragmented as it gets. The parties of the governing coalition are down from 49% in the 2017 election to just 34% now. The two big winners are the Labour Party and the Forum for Democracy whose combined share was 7.5% in 2017 and is 22% now.
In Italy, while Lega hovers around or just above 30%, the big news in the latest poll is that M5S (Grillo's party) is now fourth with third being taken by Brothers of Italy (FdI) who have basically taken over from Forza Italia as the main populist party on the right.
In Germany, the latest Kantar Poll has the CDU/CSU on 24%, the Greens on 22%, SPD on 17% and AfD on 14% with Linke on 9% and FDP on 7%.
We have French municipal elections coming up with the first round of voting next Sunday. In Paris, Incumbent Socialist Mayor Anne Higaldo is leading the Republican candidate Rachida Dati by 25-24 in the latest poll with Agnes Buzyn, the En Marche supported candidate who replaced Benjamin Griveaux last month, a close third on 19%. in fourth is the Green David Belliard on 12%.
While I suspect the bulk of the Belliard voters would back Hidalgo in the second ballot, I'm less certain which way the Buzyn supporters would jump.
2 sons and 2 daughters with ex-wife Marina Wheeler and a daughter with Helen MacIntyre. I know there are rumours of a sixth child with another woman but we're never going to know unless she goes public.
If we can find out the names of the others, it could give us a handle on the kind of names Boris prefers.
Of course there's always the possibility that he lets their mothers have the final say.
Huzzah for Scotland!
Practically zero.
I was the only one to mention it, one of our players said he had been laid up all week with "flu" yet didn't make any kind of worrying link. The ref said he would understand if we didn't shake hands with the oppo afterwards though.
Well with names like that and the possibility that Carrie might have different ideas I wouldn't touch that market, the prices are all too short and there's too much opportunity for insider betting by the staff at Downing Street and others who might be in the know.
The death toll in the northern Italian region of Lombardy has risen over the past day to 257 from 154, a local official has said.
The latest national death toll figures are due to be released later on Sunday. On Saturday, the country-wide tally stood at 233.
I wonder what will become of my summer exams...
Currently infected 6387 (+1326)
including 650 in intenstive care and 3557 in hospitals.
Deaths 366 (+133)
Healed 622 (+33)
0-49: 1
50-59: 1
60-69: 14
70-79: 39
80-89: 60
>90: 18
The actual UK average is in the hundreds, according to researchers from Oxford, with the very occasional year being up around 10,000 (eg 2008-9).
https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu
What is his evidence?