There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
That's one definition but quite frankly there's no meteorological reason to define 20th December as not winter.
If you had thermal seasons, winter would run 12 Dec thru 12 March and so on, apparently. But, we don’t, so the only scientific option is astronomical seasons set by the immutable laws of physics.
You think the weather is governed by something other than the immutable laws of physics? They have progressed a bit since Kepler's day. Seasons matter to us because of what the weather and the ecosystem are doing (think why spring is called spring and fall, fall) and forcibly mapping them to something they don't map particularly well to because it is simpler that way is unhelpful. And given that you have been pointed to a good half dozen ways of defining seasons in this thread alone, all of them having presumably had merit to the people who adopted them, arbitrarily selecting one of them as Right Because I Say So looks a bit unadult.
Stock markets are in for a shellacking this week....economically this is fast approaching the 2008 crisis and the referee hasn't even blown his whistle to start
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
The Met Office was established in 1854 as a small department within the Board of Trade under Vice Admiral Robert FitzRoy as a service to mariners.
In 1780 the Societas Meteorologica Palatina (which became defunct in 1795), an early international organization for meteorology, defined seasons as groupings of three whole months as identified by the Gregorian calendar. Ever since, professional meteorologists all over the world have used this definition.[9] Therefore, for temperate areas in the northern hemisphere, spring begins on 1 March, summer on 1 June, autumn on 1 September, and winter on 1 December.
Your own link appears to go on to contradict that and in any case the seasons are set by the physics of the cosmos and not by meteorological groups for calendar convenience
You said "meteorological seasons" were a creation of the Met Office; I pointed out that they predated the existence of the Met Office by the better part of a century.
"Set by the physics of the cosmos" ffs. They are a creation of man, they are a feature of earth's climate and ecosystem and therefore not usefully described *for most purposes* by reference to the Newtonian physics of the solar system just because it's tidier that way. And, again, it is possible to concede that there are valid but different ways of defining them rather than "I am right and you are wrong, nernernernerner."
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
As I said 'mental'. No responsible person should be going on a cruiseship now - the risks of catching the disease/spreading the disease/ being turned away at ports are far too great. I'd pretty much saty the same for any avoidable/discretionary travel at the moment.
To be honest, most of those supposedly in charge in the US, starting with the President, should be shot to encourage their replacements to be more diligent.
Have I missed something or has the EU been conspicuously silent on the Covid 19 crisis? If so surely that has to be something of a disappointment in the light of clear failings in the lack of co-ordination among different European countries. Almost as poor as the US in this instance.
This evening I’ve backed Cheltenham races not to go ahead at 10/1. The health service in Italy in the affected areas sounds like it is at crisis point. This country is likely to move from “Contain” to “Delay” fairly soon - maybe at tomorrow’s COBRA meeting? We need to flatten the curve so the NHS can cope. Will that mean cancelling large gatherings? If we decide to do this tomorrow Cheltenham will be cancelled. France has banned gatherings of more than 1000 people.
Looks absolutely nailed on to me. 10/1 is a fantastic price. My son is due to sit his Highers this year in April/ May. Even today he was working hard preparing for them. I just cannot see him being allowed to sit them.
Yes 10/1 seems a great price. I still maintain that the tube will have to close before sports meetings but maybe it will plus that's a good price.
If course I bloody well hope it's not cancelled but we shall see.
I really don’t understand how we think that we can still use the tube at the current time. Surely it has to close.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
People fly from all over for cruises, and if a carrier has touched a surface in an air conditioned ship or sneezes on you, it doesn’t make much difference how warm it is outside.
Have I missed something or has the EU been conspicuously silent on the Covid 19 crisis? If so surely that has to be something of a disappointment in the light of clear failings in the lack of co-ordination among different European countries. Almost as poor as the US in this instance.
I have just got an ad on pb from Virgin for Atlantis All Gay cruises
Not my cup of tea, but don't let me stand in your way...
I will redirect it to Alistair
The adverts you see are based on your own browsing and search history, nothing to do with PB.
The algorithms must be shite then. I remember a period where I was hammered with several ads for luxury spinning tops, a product I have never searched for (nor previously knew existed) in all my born days.
This evening I’ve backed Cheltenham races not to go ahead at 10/1. The health service in Italy in the affected areas sounds like it is at crisis point. This country is likely to move from “Contain” to “Delay” fairly soon - maybe at tomorrow’s COBRA meeting? We need to flatten the curve so the NHS can cope. Will that mean cancelling large gatherings? If we decide to do this tomorrow Cheltenham will be cancelled. France has banned gatherings of more than 1000 people.
Looks absolutely nailed on to me. 10/1 is a fantastic price. My son is due to sit his Highers this year in April/ May. Even today he was working hard preparing for them. I just cannot see him being allowed to sit them.
Yes 10/1 seems a great price. I still maintain that the tube will have to close before sports meetings but maybe it will plus that's a good price.
If course I bloody well hope it's not cancelled but we shall see.
I really don’t understand how we think that we can still use the tube at the current time. Surely it has to close.
Surely you all just have to stand three feet apart.....oh, wait
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
That's one definition but quite frankly there's no meteorological reason to define 20th December as not winter.
If you had thermal seasons, winter would run 12 Dec thru 12 March and so on, apparently. But, we don’t, so the only scientific option is astronomical seasons set by the immutable laws of physics.
You think the weather is governed by something other than the immutable laws of physics? They have progressed a bit since Kepler's day. Seasons matter to us because of what the weather and the ecosystem are doing (think why spring is called spring and fall, fall) and forcibly mapping them to something they don't map particularly well to because it is simpler that way is unhelpful. And given that you have been pointed to a good half dozen ways of defining seasons in this thread alone, all of them having presumably had merit to the people who adopted them, arbitrarily selecting one of them as Right Because I Say So looks a bit unadult.
Dear me, what a silly over reaction.
So if you state a case, my answering it is an overreaction? Surely that's a thing you say when you would like to say "you are wrong" to someone, but you can't because you know they are right?
Embarrassing about the Met Office thing, mind. I am sorry I pointed that out.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
No cruise anywhere is safe.
My daughter in law and her mother were flying from Vancouver to Sydney to see friends and then join a cruise to NZ. The cruise line has given them a full credit and they are not leaving Vancouver now which was scheduled for tomorrow
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Have I missed something or has the EU been conspicuously silent on the Covid 19 crisis? If so surely that has to be something of a disappointment in the light of clear failings in the lack of co-ordination among different European countries. Almost as poor as the US in this instance.
I have just got an ad on pb from Virgin for Atlantis All Gay cruises
Not my cup of tea, but don't let me stand in your way...
I will redirect it to Alistair
The adverts you see are based on your own browsing and search history, nothing to do with PB.
The algorithms must be shite then. I remember a period where I was hammered with several ads for luxury spinning tops, a product I have never searched for (nor previously knew existed) in all my born days.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
It sounds like it, and I was just about to make the point about thermal lag too!
To be clear it's 106 confirmed cases in New York State, and about 120 tests in New York City, so it's not quite as apocalyptically terrible as it looks at first glance.
Have I missed something or has the EU been conspicuously silent on the Covid 19 crisis? If so surely that has to be something of a disappointment in the light of clear failings in the lack of co-ordination among different European countries. Almost as poor as the US in this instance.
Of course that helps although completely ignores the substance of my point and is around £10m less than the UK has given.
This is predominantly a national issue, with some need for international co-operation.
Is your complaint that the EU is NOT interfering with national sovereignty?
I would have thought the reaction to this should be coordinated internationally, not nationally.
Yes, that is what WHO is for.
So it's not a predominantly national issue. Far from it, in fact.
Health care organisation is a national competency, which is why it varies across the EU.
That doesn't make Coronavirus a national issue. This is exactly the time for cooperation, both to mitigate the effects, and to find a vaccine.
I think that view is correct.
Can you explain to me why the UK government announced last week its intention to leave the relevant European cooperation scheme for disease control?
I don't know - perhaps their view is there is already a body for cooperation in such matters, the WHO.
And that necessarily excludes participation in another one? As was practice before, at a time like this? Really?
Given Brexit was about leaving the political institutions of the EU, I'm not sure why you are surprised. Such bodies are clearly designed to replace national institutions of the member states, the ever onward march of federalism. I don't think that's the objective of the WHO.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
We have a cottage booked in Cornwall for a week in June - maybe I could auction that off at a handsome profit?
On the subject of seasons: three months of each is very arbitrary and particularly for things like spring and autumn should really be adjusted for how far from the equator you live.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
Yes sorry that was a typo, my point is that in June (and as you said before too) the earth tilts towards the sun which is why it is warm and summer as the lag has been dealt with by middle of June. The Solstice doesn't cause or introduce summer, the earth's tilt does.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
That's one definition but quite frankly there's no meteorological reason to define 20th December as not winter.
If you had thermal seasons, winter would run 12 Dec thru 12 March and so on, apparently. But, we don’t, so the only scientific option is astronomical seasons set by the immutable laws of physics.
You think the weather is governed by something other than the immutable laws of physics? They have progressed a bit since Kepler's day. Seasons matter to us because of what the weather and the ecosystem are doing (think why spring is called spring and fall, fall) and forcibly mapping them to something they don't map particularly well to because it is simpler that way is unhelpful. And given that you have been pointed to a good half dozen ways of defining seasons in this thread alone, all of them having presumably had merit to the people who adopted them, arbitrarily selecting one of them as Right Because I Say So looks a bit unadult.
Dear me, what a silly over reaction.
So if you state a case, my answering it is an overreaction? Surely that's a thing you say when you would like to say "you are wrong" to someone, but you can't because you know they are right?
Embarrassing about the Met Office thing, mind. I am sorry I pointed that out.
It was more the childish “unadult” “pwned” and “nernernernerner” stuff I was referring to. Others have argued against me without any of that infantile nonsense. It’s just a debate, no need to be silly about it.
I have just got an ad on pb from Virgin for Atlantis All Gay cruises
Not my cup of tea, but don't let me stand in your way...
I will redirect it to Alistair
The adverts you see are based on your own browsing and search history, nothing to do with PB.
The algorithms must be shite then. I remember a period where I was hammered with several ads for luxury spinning tops, a product I have never searched for (nor previously knew existed) in all my born days.
Is there a porn item called a spinning top ?
Not porn .. but from the Urban dictionary
Top definition
Spinning Top A corporate figurehead, spokesman, PR or advertising executive whose primary role is to spin fictional narratives that portray a predatory organization in a positive light.
Spinning tops are often so detached from the actual product and spirit of their enterprise, that they do not realize they are lying. This is usually the case with advertising & PR agencies, who do not see the responsibility that comes with creativity and visibility.
Other tops spin consciously. This is usually the case with CEO's and internal PR officers.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
People fly from all over for cruises, and if a carrier has touched a surface in an air conditioned ship or sneezes on you, it doesn’t make much difference how warm it is outside.
And the crew are mainly from the far east and many officers from Italy
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
Yes sorry that was a typo, my point is that in June (and as you said before too) the earth tilts towards the sun which is why it is warm and summer as the lag has been dealt with by middle of June. The Solstice doesn't cause or introduce summer, the earth's tilt does.
That doesn't make sense. How is the lag "dealt with by middle of June"?
Edit: The summer solstice occurs on or about 21 June, and this is when the intensity of solar radiation reaches its peak in the Northern Hemisphere. Because of thermal lag, though, the hottest month is generally July, not June.
On the subject of seasons: three months of each is very arbitrary and particularly for things like spring and autumn should really be adjusted for how far from the equator you live.
Don't go making reasonable points, that will be the ruining of the debate!
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
People fly from all over for cruises, and if a carrier has touched a surface in an air conditioned ship or sneezes on you, it doesn’t make much difference how warm it is outside.
And the crew are mainly from the far east and many officers from Italy
Not that we ever get invited to the officers' parties lol!
It's not just scary - it's sad. A whole world of shiny happy globalisation is coming to an end, and we don't know how long the darkness will last. Terrible pity.
To be clear it's 106 confirmed cases in New York State, and about 120 tests in New York City, so it's not quite as apocalyptically terrible as it looks at first glance.
New York state has just over twice the population of New York City.
Edit: It's just occurred to me that the apocalyptically terrible bit is that they have only done 120 tests in a city about the same size as London.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
Have I missed something or has the EU been conspicuously silent on the Covid 19 crisis? If so surely that has to be something of a disappointment in the light of clear failings in the lack of co-ordination among different European countries. Almost as poor as the US in this instance.
Of course that helps although completely ignores the substance of my point and is around £10m less than the UK has given.
This is predominantly a national issue, with some need for international co-operation.
Is your complaint that the EU is NOT interfering with national sovereignty?
I would have thought the reaction to this should be coordinated internationally, not nationally.
Yes, that is what WHO is for.
So it's not a predominantly national issue. Far from it, in fact.
Health care organisation is a national competency, which is why it varies across the EU.
That doesn't make Coronavirus a national issue. This is exactly the time for cooperation, both to mitigate the effects, and to find a vaccine.
I think that view is correct.
Can you explain to me why the UK government announced last week its intention to leave the relevant European cooperation scheme for disease control?
I don't know - perhaps their view is there is already a body for cooperation in such matters, the WHO.
And that necessarily excludes participation in another one? As was practice before, at a time like this? Really?
Given Brexit was about leaving the political institutions of the EU, I'm not sure why you are surprised. Such bodies are clearly designed to replace national institutions of the member states, the ever onward march of federalism. I don't think that's the objective of the WHO.
That body was clearly not designed to replace anything, but instead dedicated to the cooperation and coordination that you called for.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
Yes sorry that was a typo, my point is that in June (and as you said before too) the earth tilts towards the sun which is why it is warm and summer as the lag has been dealt with by middle of June. The Solstice doesn't cause or introduce summer, the earth's tilt does.
No the thermal lag hasn’t been ‘dealt with’ by the middle of June at all! The warmest fortnight of the year is on or around the first two weeks of August give or take a few days (statistically, on average, in the UK). That’s several weeks after the solstice on 21 June.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I have just got an ad on pb from Virgin for Atlantis All Gay cruises
Not my cup of tea, but don't let me stand in your way...
I will redirect it to Alistair
The adverts you see are based on your own browsing and search history, nothing to do with PB.
The algorithms must be shite then. I remember a period where I was hammered with several ads for luxury spinning tops, a product I have never searched for (nor previously knew existed) in all my born days.
Is there a porn item called a spinning top ?
Not porn .. but from the Urban dictionary
Top definition
Spinning Top A corporate figurehead, spokesman, PR or advertising executive whose primary role is to spin fictional narratives that portray a predatory organization in a positive light.
Spinning tops are often so detached from the actual product and spirit of their enterprise, that they do not realize they are lying. This is usually the case with advertising & PR agencies, who do not see the responsibility that comes with creativity and visibility.
Other tops spin consciously. This is usually the case with CEO's and internal PR officers.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I don’t think the Uk tourism industry is going to be a winner from this, do you?
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
People fly from all over for cruises, and if a carrier has touched a surface in an air conditioned ship or sneezes on you, it doesn’t make much difference how warm it is outside.
And the crew are mainly from the far east and many officers from Italy
Not that we ever get invited to the officers' parties lol!
This evening I’ve backed Cheltenham races not to go ahead at 10/1. The health service in Italy in the affected areas sounds like it is at crisis point. This country is likely to move from “Contain” to “Delay” fairly soon - maybe at tomorrow’s COBRA meeting? We need to flatten the curve so the NHS can cope. Will that mean cancelling large gatherings? If we decide to do this tomorrow Cheltenham will be cancelled. France has banned gatherings of more than 1000 people.
Looks absolutely nailed on to me. 10/1 is a fantastic price. My son is due to sit his Highers this year in April/ May. Even today he was working hard preparing for them. I just cannot see him being allowed to sit them.
Yes 10/1 seems a great price. I still maintain that the tube will have to close before sports meetings but maybe it will plus that's a good price.
If course I bloody well hope it's not cancelled but we shall see.
I really don’t understand how we think that we can still use the tube at the current time. Surely it has to close.
Because for millions of people, and by extension the functioning of the country, it is absolutely crucial. One thing to advise people to avoid it where possible, but shutting it a complete non-starter. If people can't use the tube they can't get to work. That means hospitals not staffed, all schools shut, most workplaces etc etc.
Just because some people can work from home doesn't mean everyone can.
To be clear it's 106 confirmed cases in New York State, and about 120 tests in New York City, so it's not quite as apocalyptically terrible as it looks at first glance.
New York state has just over twice the population of New York City.
Sure, but they should really be comparing State tests and cases, or City tests and cases, not mixing them up.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
Yes sorry that was a typo, my point is that in June (and as you said before too) the earth tilts towards the sun which is why it is warm and summer as the lag has been dealt with by middle of June. The Solstice doesn't cause or introduce summer, the earth's tilt does.
No the thermal lag hasn’t been ‘dealt with’ by the middle of June at all! The warmest fortnight of the year is on or around the first two weeks of August give or take a few days (statistically, on average, in the UK). That’s several weeks after the solstice on 21 June.
The average coldest day (in southern England, at least) is 1 February
It's not just scary - it's sad. A whole world of shiny happy globalisation is coming to an end, and we don't know how long the darkness will last. Terrible pity.
On that subject I was considering this earlier this evening and kind of came to a different conclusion.
My thought was, given that this outbreak started in mid December, and that it has an incubation period of around 2 weeks during which people are infectious but may not show symptoms, I am amazed that it didn't spread more quickly and more comprehensively until now.
I have grown up with the idea that modern travel and globalisation makes it likely that these things will spread all over the world in days. Whereas in fact we have been looking at weeks or even months. I assume this is as a result of the relative difficulty in transmitting from one person to another but it still surprises me how long it has taken for this to really kick off outside of China.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
That's one definition but quite frankly there's no meteorological reason to define 20th December as not winter.
If you had thermal seasons, winter would run 12 Dec thru 12 March and so on, apparently. But, we don’t, so the only scientific option is astronomical seasons set by the immutable laws of physics.
You think the weather is governed by something other than the immutable laws of physics? They have progressed a bit since Kepler's day. Seasons matter to us because of what the weather and the ecosystem are doing (think why spring is called spring and fall, fall) and forcibly mapping them to something they don't map particularly well to because it is simpler that way is unhelpful. And given that you have been pointed to a good half dozen ways of defining seasons in this thread alone, all of them having presumably had merit to the people who adopted them, arbitrarily selecting one of them as Right Because I Say So looks a bit unadult.
Dear me, what a silly over reaction.
So if you state a case, my answering it is an overreaction? Surely that's a thing you say when you would like to say "you are wrong" to someone, but you can't because you know they are right?
Embarrassing about the Met Office thing, mind. I am sorry I pointed that out.
It was more the childish “unadult” “pwned” and “nernernernerner” stuff I was referring to. Others have argued against me without any of that infantile nonsense. It’s just a debate, no need to be silly about it.
No, I was pointing out that you were being childish. Perhaps you don't appreciate how claims beginning "the only scientific option is..." actually sound.
Have I missed something or has the EU been conspicuously silent on the Covid 19 crisis? If so surely that has to be something of a disappointment in the light of clear failings in the lack of co-ordination among different European countries. Almost as poor as the US in this instance.
The US is one nation, perhaps you have so convinced yourself of the United States of Europe schtick that you actually believe that's what it is. Out of interest What do you believe that the EU should be doing or that individual countries aren't already doing themselves?
1. Co-ordination of strategy across the membership - re travel advice/quarantine measures , etc., etc. 2. Rapid relaxation of fiscal rules for members suffering the most. 3. Medical support across the piste
Re: your silly point about my beliefs I voted remain, live in Spain and have long wondered why healthcare has been left out as a competency. Those beliefs notwithstanding I am seriously disappointed that the organisation has been conspicuous by its absence thus far.
Apologies but it sounded like a cheap shot at the EU. I believe that that the EU will deal with the economic fallout once it is clear what might be required. Other than that it is best for each country to deal with the virus in the way they see fit and leave any coordination to to the WHO. This increases looks as though it needs a global approach.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I don’t think the Uk tourism industry is going to be a winner from this, do you?
No idea. another_richard is interested in this topic. He's your man.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
This evening I’ve backed Cheltenham races not to go ahead at 10/1. The health service in Italy in the affected areas sounds like it is at crisis point. This country is likely to move from “Contain” to “Delay” fairly soon - maybe at tomorrow’s COBRA meeting? We need to flatten the curve so the NHS can cope. Will that mean cancelling large gatherings? If we decide to do this tomorrow Cheltenham will be cancelled. France has banned gatherings of more than 1000 people.
Looks absolutely nailed on to me. 10/1 is a fantastic price. My son is due to sit his Highers this year in April/ May. Even today he was working hard preparing for them. I just cannot see him being allowed to sit them.
Yes 10/1 seems a great price. I still maintain that the tube will have to close before sports meetings but maybe it will plus that's a good price.
If course I bloody well hope it's not cancelled but we shall see.
I really don’t understand how we think that we can still use the tube at the current time. Surely it has to close.
Because for millions of people, and by extension the functioning of the country, it is absolutely crucial. One thing to advise people to avoid it where possible, but shutting it a complete non-starter. If people can't use the tube they can't get to work. That means hospitals not staffed, all schools shut, most workplaces etc etc.
Just because some people can work from home doesn't mean everyone can.
Can't believe I'll have to abandon any hope for doing the UK's two northern-most rail lines (from Inverness) because of Covid -had pencilled them in for March or April, along with the Sunday-only Dale Rail in Lancashire/Yorkshire.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
On the train from Marylebone to Oxford (which stops at Bicester village) the announcements are in Arabic and what I assume is Mandarin as well as English.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I’m probably what you would sneeringly deem the metropolitan classes. However, I haven’t been on a foreign holiday for three years and my last summer break was spent in Kent and before that Suffolk. The prospect of spending the warmest part of the year in England isn’t at all worrying to me. It’s what I do most years!
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
That's one definition but quite frankly there's no meteorological reason to define 20th December as not winter.
If you had thermal seasons, winter would run 12 Dec thru 12 March and so on, apparently. But, we don’t, so the only scientific option is astronomical seasons set by the immutable laws of physics.
You think the weather is governed by something other than the immutable laws of physics? They have progressed a bit since Kepler's day. Seasons matter to us because of what the weather and the ecosystem are doing (think why spring is called spring and fall, fall) and forcibly mapping them to something they don't map particularly well to because it is simpler that way is unhelpful. And given that you have been pointed to a good half dozen ways of defining seasons in this thread alone, all of them having presumably had merit to the people who adopted them, arbitrarily selecting one of them as Right Because I Say So looks a bit unadult.
Dear me, what a silly over reaction.
So if you state a case, my answering it is an overreaction? Surely that's a thing you say when you would like to say "you are wrong" to someone, but you can't because you know they are right?
Embarrassing about the Met Office thing, mind. I am sorry I pointed that out.
It was more the childish “unadult” “pwned” and “nernernernerner” stuff I was referring to. Others have argued against me without any of that infantile nonsense. It’s just a debate, no need to be silly about it.
No, I was pointing out that you were being childish. Perhaps you don't appreciate how claims beginning "the only scientific option is..." actually sound.
Review the posts and look who used the words “pwned” and “nernernernerner”. A grown man, ostensibly (not me).
To be clear it's 106 confirmed cases in New York State, and about 120 tests in New York City, so it's not quite as apocalyptically terrible as it looks at first glance.
New York state has just over twice the population of New York City.
Sure, but they should really be comparing State tests and cases, or City tests and cases, not mixing them up.
The vast majority of the non-NYC New York cases are in the NYC commuter belt: mostly here in Westchester County (83 cases as of today). We’re the county immediately to the north of the city.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I don’t think the Uk tourism industry is going to be a winner from this, do you?
No. No foreign visitors, and domestics limited by 1. intra-UK lockdowns 2. self-isolation and 3. lots of tourism is predicated on going to things like Cheltenham and music festivals and stuff which won't be happening.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
Yes sorry that was a typo, my point is that in June (and as you said before too) the earth tilts towards the sun which is why it is warm and summer as the lag has been dealt with by middle of June. The Solstice doesn't cause or introduce summer, the earth's tilt does.
That doesn't make sense. How is the lag "dealt with by middle of June"?
After the equinox in March (not the solstice in June) the earth is tilting towards the sun at an increasing amount peaking at the solstice in June. But there's a thermal lag so the warmest day of summer is in July nowhere near the solstice or equinox or anything else. July may be the hottest but either side in June and August its certainly still summer.
By June we are getting summer weather. My birthday is in the second half of June but before the solstice and its summer weather then.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
Yes sorry that was a typo, my point is that in June (and as you said before too) the earth tilts towards the sun which is why it is warm and summer as the lag has been dealt with by middle of June. The Solstice doesn't cause or introduce summer, the earth's tilt does.
No the thermal lag hasn’t been ‘dealt with’ by the middle of June at all! The warmest fortnight of the year is on or around the first two weeks of August give or take a few days (statistically, on average, in the UK). That’s several weeks after the solstice on 21 June.
Does summer last one week in your eyes or for months? If you want to define summer as one week then sure pick a week in July or August, if its for months then June, July and August works.
It's not just scary - it's sad. A whole world of shiny happy globalisation is coming to an end, and we don't know how long the darkness will last. Terrible pity.
On that subject I was considering this earlier this evening and kind of came to a different conclusion.
My thought was, given that this outbreak started in mid December, and that it has an incubation period of around 2 weeks during which people are infectious but may not show symptoms, I am amazed that it didn't spread more quickly and more comprehensively until now.
I have grown up with the idea that modern travel and globalisation makes it likely that these things will spread all over the world in days. Whereas in fact we have been looking at weeks or even months. I assume this is as a result of the relative difficulty in transmitting from one person to another but it still surprises me how long it has taken for this to really kick off outside of China.
Richard, interesting post. If you look back at the forecasts then compare with the actual, it does seem rather slower. I’m glad it’s not just me that thinks that. I was worried I was being complacent, and I still might be...
Even some of the most recent Korean clusters are Shincheonji followers:
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200308000197 46 infections confirmed at apartment complex in Daegu Daegu authorities fail to detect epidemiological links to apartment, where 94 of 140 residents were Shincheonji followers...
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
On the other hand, the fact that we don't appear to have localised clusters in these places suggests that the danger of this feature accelerating the spread may have passed.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I’m probably what you would sneeringly deem the metropolitan classes. However, I haven’t been on a foreign holiday for three years and my last summer break was spent in Kent and before that Suffolk. The prospect of spending the warmest part of the year in England isn’t at all worrying to me. It’s what I do most years!
Indeed. My experience of parts of the Isle of Wight, North Nofolk and the West Country is that a lot of Chelsea is found there over the summer.
Indeed British holidays seem to mostly be for the skint, the older generation, dog owners and the upper middle class already.
It's not just scary - it's sad. A whole world of shiny happy globalisation is coming to an end, and we don't know how long the darkness will last. Terrible pity.
On that subject I was considering this earlier this evening and kind of came to a different conclusion.
My thought was, given that this outbreak started in mid December, and that it has an incubation period of around 2 weeks during which people are infectious but may not show symptoms, I am amazed that it didn't spread more quickly and more comprehensively until now.
I have grown up with the idea that modern travel and globalisation makes it likely that these things will spread all over the world in days. Whereas in fact we have been looking at weeks or even months. I assume this is as a result of the relative difficulty in transmitting from one person to another but it still surprises me how long it has taken for this to really kick off outside of China.
Richard, interesting post. If you look back at the forecasts then compare with the actual, it does seem rather slower. I’m glad it’s not just me that thinks that. I was worried I was being complacent, and I still might be...
I thought we were some way ahead of those twitter projections being posted here a week or so ago (apols I can't recall who the original tweet was by).
The virus has already reached the Faroe Islands. So I don't think there's anywhere clever you can go to escape from it.
I'd say you'd want a detached house with a private garden and your own vehicle (that way you can absolutely isolate and aside from the postman, milkman and deliverymen ..all deliveries of which you can "wipe down" before taking inside) and if you have to go out you're going out in your own vehicle. You're minimising any contact with anyone else to effectively zero.
Other than that I don't think it matters where you are. I'd just pick a low crime area.
You can certainly overthink it. If you're too isolated you won't be a priority for supplies if supply chains break down (including fuel to get in and out) and almost entirely on your own.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
Yes sorry that was a typo, my point is that in June (and as you said before too) the earth tilts towards the sun which is why it is warm and summer as the lag has been dealt with by middle of June. The Solstice doesn't cause or introduce summer, the earth's tilt does.
That doesn't make sense. How is the lag "dealt with by middle of June"?
Edit: The summer solstice occurs on or about 21 June, and this is when the intensity of solar radiation reaches its peak in the Northern Hemisphere. Because of thermal lag, though, the hottest month is generally July, not June.
Yes July and August are hottest, followed by June. June is warmer on average than September is.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
Yes sorry that was a typo, my point is that in June (and as you said before too) the earth tilts towards the sun which is why it is warm and summer as the lag has been dealt with by middle of June. The Solstice doesn't cause or introduce summer, the earth's tilt does.
No the thermal lag hasn’t been ‘dealt with’ by the middle of June at all! The warmest fortnight of the year is on or around the first two weeks of August give or take a few days (statistically, on average, in the UK). That’s several weeks after the solstice on 21 June.
Does summer last one week in your eyes or for months? If you want to define summer as one week then sure pick a week in July or August, if its for months then June, July and August works.
As I said above if you were to do it by thermal seasons it would run roughly 12 June to 12 Sep and so on. But failing that the astronomical definition is pretty good.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I’m probably what you would sneeringly deem the metropolitan classes. However, I haven’t been on a foreign holiday for three years and my last summer break was spent in Kent and before that Suffolk. The prospect of spending the warmest part of the year in England isn’t at all worrying to me. It’s what I do most years!
Indeed. My experience of parts of the Isle of Wight, North Nofolk and the West Country is that a lot of Chelsea is found there over the summer.
Indeed British holidays seem to mostly be for the skint, the older generation, dog owners and the upper middle class already.
This year they will be for EVERYONE
What holidays? We will all be locked in our houses.
Comments
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1236764714308374529
Physics.
"Set by the physics of the cosmos" ffs. They are a creation of man, they are a feature of earth's climate and ecosystem and therefore not usefully described *for most purposes* by reference to the Newtonian physics of the solar system just because it's tidier that way. And, again, it is possible to concede that there are valid but different ways of defining them rather than "I am right and you are wrong, nernernernerner."
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1236706825397035010
Everywhere is going to be horrible...I've stocked up on wine and peanuts
I only wear my big coat in winter, which extends from October to March.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
Can you explain to me why the UK government announced last week its intention to leave the relevant European cooperation scheme for disease control?
For the avoidance of doubt I was googling to check out the menu of the restaurant in London called Sexy Fish.
https://sexyfish.com/
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Embarrassing about the Met Office thing, mind. I am sorry I pointed that out.
My daughter in law and her mother were flying from Vancouver to Sydney to see friends and then join a cruise to NZ. The cruise line has given them a full credit and they are not leaving Vancouver now which was scheduled for tomorrow
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/tom-cruises-next-mission-impossible-235844565.html
and particularly for things like spring and autumn should really be adjusted for how far from the equator you live.
Top definition
Spinning Top
A corporate figurehead, spokesman, PR or advertising executive whose primary role is to spin fictional narratives that portray a predatory organization in a positive light.
Spinning tops are often so detached from the actual product and spirit of their enterprise, that they do not realize they are lying. This is usually the case with advertising & PR agencies, who do not see the responsibility that comes with creativity and visibility.
Other tops spin consciously. This is usually the case with CEO's and internal PR officers.
AKA: a paid shill, a liar, a snake-oil salesman
Edit: The summer solstice occurs on or about 21 June, and this is when the intensity of solar radiation reaches its peak in the Northern Hemisphere. Because of thermal lag, though, the hottest month is generally July, not June.
Edit: It's just occurred to me that the apocalyptically terrible bit is that they have only done 120 tests in a city about the same size as London.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
Just because some people can work from home doesn't mean everyone can.
My thought was, given that this outbreak started in mid December, and that it has an incubation period of around 2 weeks during which people are infectious but may not show symptoms, I am amazed that it didn't spread more quickly and more comprehensively until now.
I have grown up with the idea that modern travel and globalisation makes it likely that these things will spread all over the world in days. Whereas in fact we have been looking at weeks or even months. I assume this is as a result of the relative difficulty in transmitting from one person to another but it still surprises me how long it has taken for this to really kick off outside of China.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200308-sitrep-48-covid-19.pdf
Worldometer says 521
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Anyone know why the vast difference?
It's possible that the official count will follow that view.
a foreign holiday for three years and my last summer break was spent in Kent and before that Suffolk. The prospect of spending the warmest part of the year in England isn’t at all worrying to me. It’s what I do most years!
By June we are getting summer weather. My birthday is in the second half of June but before the solstice and its summer weather then.
Most of the rest of the dogs were silly.
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200308000197
46 infections confirmed at apartment complex in Daegu
Daegu authorities fail to detect epidemiological links to apartment, where 94 of 140 residents were Shincheonji followers...
I agree on face masks btw.
Indeed British holidays seem to mostly be for the skint, the older generation, dog owners and the upper middle class already.
They are still a thing!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/08/keir-starmer-declines-to-rule-out-campaigning-to-rejoin-eu
Am I reading Nandy's comments correctly that she is now saying that Labour SHOULD have voted for May's deal?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GvO77Q1O49d0m4lQdBNdus3H8wdf3s-vLPE8c4cntsI/edit#gid=0
Hurghada tends to be full of Russians (and British).