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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will be the name of the Boris Johnson’s baby?

Ladbrokes have this market on the name of the baby Carrie Symonds will give birth to later this year and quite frankly this seems like a brilliant way to contribute to the Christmas bonus fund for Ladbrokes politics team.

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

Netherlands: Two more deaths from Covid-19 have been reported taking the total to three. The number of infections jumped on Sunday to 265, from 188 a day earlier

Switzerland: A person being treated in hospital in Liestal for the disease has died, taking the national death toll to two. The country has 281 confirmed infections

Singapore: Twelve new cases have been confirmed taking the total to 150. So far Singapore has not reported any deaths from the virus

Belgium: Another 31 cases were reported on Sunday taking the national total to 200.

FrancisUrquhart

And staying inside for weeks on end will have other long-lasting effects, too: for weeks, people in China have been predicting a baby boom – the result of enforced one-on-one time, they suspect. That’s been coupled with the news that at least one government office that processes divorces was swamped when it reopened to the public on Friday.

FrancisUrquhart

Is incredible that Singapore has no deaths or Germany. Either they need to get their numbers down on the lottery or they are being a bit canny with the declarations for reason of death.

e.g by the sounds of it one of the UK deaths could easily have been claimed to have been not due to Coronavirus, due to basically being a very sick individual who had been in and out of hospital numerous times recently.

MarqueeMark

"Blessed" would be a good name.

If he wants his lad to grow up with a voice like Brian.

CarlottaVance

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

Philip_Thompson

FPT

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.

"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-51789355

And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.

That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.

A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.

May God help us. Please.

17,000 Italians die annually from the flu.
60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.

What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.

But, if it happens, this would be 60,000 dead in a few weeks/months, not over a year. Which means mass graves, temporary morgues, crematoria working 24/7. As in Wuhan and Iran. It will certainly *feel* medieval.

And, yet again, you are ignoring the 10%150,000 critically ill (some of whom will be permanently damaged, many of whom will have to stay in hospital for a loooong time).

If they crash the Italian health system then who knows what happens next. THAT is the biggest worry.

The annual flu season is over just a few months too - and well over 600k Italians die annually in total so you're talking a 10% variation on normal. Not nice or pleasant, but not biblical or medieval or whatever other exaggeration you want to throw at it today.

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

That’s a thought and a half. Imagine what happens if Operation London Bridge gets called in the middle of widespread lockdowns and quarantines? I hope the two sets of disaster planners are speaking to each other!

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

A bad outbreak and we could King William V by Christmas.....

Philip_Thompson

FPT

Andy_JS said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

We are up another 64 cases. Its not doubling every couple of days but it is increasing fast.

So far we haven't seen the explosive growth, especially given the significant amount of testing. But, I think it is clear that Stage II will be called on Monday.

I thought he said early this week that there wouldn't be an official announcement of Stage II but we were effectively already there?

What will stage 2 consist of?

Stage 1 - Containment
Stage 2 - Delay

Realistically many of the things required for delay are the same things as required for containment so there may not be much noticeably different for a while.

CarlottaVance

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is incredible that Singapore has no deaths or Germany. Either they need to get their numbers down on the lottery or they are being a bit canny with the declarations for reason of death.

e.g by the sounds of it one of the UK deaths could easily have been claimed to have been not due to Coronavirus, due to basically being a very sick individual who had been in and out of hospital numerous times recently.

They have 7 in intensive care, not all of whom may make it:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-inevitable-that-singapore-will-see-covid-19-death-says-health-minister

Philip_Thompson

MarqueeMark said:

"Blessed" would be a good name.

If he wants his lad to grow up with a voice like Brian.

Or a voice like Grampy Rabbit.

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is incredible that Singapore has no deaths or Germany. Either they need to get their numbers down on the lottery or they are being a bit canny with the declarations for reason of death.

e.g by the sounds of it one of the UK deaths could easily have been claimed to have been not due to Coronavirus, due to basically being a very sick individual who had been in and out of hospital numerous times recently.

They have 7 in intensive care, not all of whom may make it:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-inevitable-that-singapore-will-see-covid-19-death-says-health-minister

Interesting that they are still hospitalizing even mild cases...

Medical services director Kenneth Mak, who was also at Friday's briefing, said Singapore was "fortunate" that a number of those hospitalised were only mildly symptomatic and patients had been kept in the hospitals for long periods to ensure they are free of the virus before being discharged.

And looks like they are throwing the kitchen sink at them...

He told the briefing: "There are some individuals in the ICU who are ill, (they) all require oxygen support, which for a large part involves the use of a ventilator. A number of these individuals have received other treatments, including the use of antiviral medications."

Fishing

Philip_Thompson said:

The annual flu season is over just a few months too - and well over 600k Italians die annually in total so you're talking a 10% variation on normal. Not nice or pleasant, but not biblical or medieval or whatever other exaggeration you want to throw at it today.

Also, given that many of the 60k would be elderly people with preexisting conditions, a large number, perhaps the majority, would have died this year anyway of something else.

One of the big winners from a widespread pandemic like this if it escalates will be the pensions industry. In fact, the conspiracy theory writes itself. A great plot for a thriller writer, if anybody knows one of those.

logical_song

Septimus, Octavia(n)?
But he may have lost count and Sixtus is already taken.

nichomar

Philip_Thompson said:

MarqueeMark said:

"Blessed" would be a good name.

If he wants his lad to grow up with a voice like Brian.

Or a voice like Grampy Rabbit.

Wayne would be ideal

MarqueeMark

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

That’s a thought and a half. Imagine what happens if Operation London Bridge gets called in the middle of widespread lockdowns and quarantines? I hope the two sets of disaster planners are speaking to each other!

Her Maj has a very quiet funeral, organised by the Co-op, with just two cars following....

That, or Liz gets put in the freezer until the world can properly pay its respects.

FrancisUrquhart

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

That’s a thought and a half. Imagine what happens if Operation London Bridge gets called in the middle of widespread lockdowns and quarantines? I hope the two sets of disaster planners are speaking to each other!

Her Maj has a very quiet funeral, organised by the Co-op, with just two cars following....

That, or Liz gets put in the freezer until the world can properly pay its respects.

They will keep it quiet won't they. Both the shock for the nation, but also the desire for people to come out onto the streets in big gatherings.

Philip_Thompson

It seems that Boris likes naming after food and drink.

There is already Lettice [sic] and Peaches. Milo of course is a powdered chocolate and malt drink.

Maybe he could name the next child after a Christmas movie and pizza topping and have Bruce Pineapple Johnson?

Chameleon

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is incredible that Singapore has no deaths or Germany. Either they need to get their numbers down on the lottery or they are being a bit canny with the declarations for reason of death.

e.g by the sounds of it one of the UK deaths could easily have been claimed to have been not due to Coronavirus, due to basically being a very sick individual who had been in and out of hospital numerous times recently.

They have 7 in intensive care, not all of whom may make it:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-inevitable-that-singapore-will-see-covid-19-death-says-health-minister

Interesting that they are still hospitalizing even mild cases...

Medical services director Kenneth Mak, who was also at Friday's briefing, said Singapore was "fortunate" that a number of those hospitalised were only mildly symptomatic and patients had been kept in the hospitals for long periods to ensure they are free of the virus before being discharged.

Best way to make sure that they don't break self-quarantine.

Foxy

On the Molecular aspects of soap and Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/status/1236549305189597189?s=19

DecrepiterJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

That’s a thought and a half. Imagine what happens if Operation London Bridge gets called in the middle of widespread lockdowns and quarantines? I hope the two sets of disaster planners are speaking to each other!

Her Maj has a very quiet funeral, organised by the Co-op, with just two cars following....

That, or Liz gets put in the freezer until the world can properly pay its respects.

They will keep it quiet won't they. Both the shock for the nation, but also the desire for people to come out onto the streets in big gatherings.

Women are less susceptible to covid-19 so if it does see off the older Royal men then the DoE and PoW and even the FBI's man, DoY, can go first with private funerals.

tlg86

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is incredible that Singapore has no deaths or Germany. Either they need to get their numbers down on the lottery or they are being a bit canny with the declarations for reason of death.

e.g by the sounds of it one of the UK deaths could easily have been claimed to have been not due to Coronavirus, due to basically being a very sick individual who had been in and out of hospital numerous times recently.

Surely the statistic is simply the number of deaths of people who have tested positive for COVID-19? Would the Germans try to fiddle this?

Chameleon

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.

"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-51789355

And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.

That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.

A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.

May God help us. Please.

17,000 Italians die annually from the flu.
60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.

What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.

But, if it happens, this would be 60,000 dead in a few weeks/months, not over a year. Which means mass graves, temporary morgues, crematoria working 24/7. As in Wuhan and Iran. It will certainly *feel* medieval.

And, yet again, you are ignoring the 10%150,000 critically ill (some of whom will be permanently damaged, many of whom will have to stay in hospital for a loooong time).

If they crash the Italian health system then who knows what happens next. THAT is the biggest worry.

The annual flu season is over just a few months too - and well over 600k Italians die annually in total so you're talking a 10% variation on normal. Not nice or pleasant, but not biblical or medieval or whatever other exaggeration you want to throw at it today.

Yeah, 1.5m cases resulting in 60,000 dead is hardly the end of the world. Times figures by 10, 20, or 30 and it gets a bit tricky.

LostPassword

Fishing said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The annual flu season is over just a few months too - and well over 600k Italians die annually in total so you're talking a 10% variation on normal. Not nice or pleasant, but not biblical or medieval or whatever other exaggeration you want to throw at it today.

Also, given that many of the 60k would be elderly people with preexisting conditions, a large number, perhaps the majority, would have died this year anyway of something else.

One of the big winners from a widespread pandemic like this if it escalates will be the pensions industry. In fact, the conspiracy theory writes itself. A great plot for a thriller writer, if anybody knows one of those.

I think Michael Crichton wrote a novel about eco-terrorists who planted a nuclear device on the mid-Atlantic ridge. Given the effect on the airline industry, the reduction in air pollution from the Chinese shutdown, the almost suspicious lack of deaths among the young - you could write a similar thriller pointing the finger at a school climate striker with a flair for virology...

isam

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.

"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-51789355

And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.

That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.

A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.

May God help us. Please.

17,000 Italians die annually from the flu.
60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.

What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.

But, if it happens, this would be 60,000 dead in a few weeks/months, not over a year. Which means mass graves, temporary morgues, crematoria working 24/7. As in Wuhan and Iran. It will certainly *feel* medieval.

And, yet again, you are ignoring the 10%150,000 critically ill (some of whom will be permanently damaged, many of whom will have to stay in hospital for a loooong time).

If they crash the Italian health system then who knows what happens next. THAT is the biggest worry.

The annual flu season is over just a few months too - and well over 600k Italians die annually in total so you're talking a 10% variation on normal. Not nice or pleasant, but not biblical or medieval or whatever other exaggeration you want to throw at it today.

...and do we know that the deaths from Coronavirus aren't replacing deaths from flu rather than adding to them?

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

THIS is also encouraging.

South Korea.

About a week ago DavidL said he expected the increase in the country's coronavirus cases to slow down about now. I was somewhat skeptical, but it looks like David was right.

This may be a function of their unusual widespread detection rates, which means they caught a lot of cases early and are now normalising.

BUT if you look at the curve on this page (scroll down), with an optimistic frame of mind, it does look like a classic bell curve is beginning to form, which means the disease MAY be peaking in South Korea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea

There are still lots of cases unresolved (neither killed nor cured) BUT...... hmm..... a gleam of hope.

One thing on "unresolved", a) I would think authorities are rather busy with over things than ensuring every milder case has been ticked off and b) when I contracted pneumonia a couple of years ago, I was seriously / dangerously ill for 2-3 weeks (hospital, oxygen, etc), but despite being past the danger and well way from hospital, it took 3 months to be signed off by the doctor as recovered.

Philip_Thompson

isam said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.

"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-51789355

And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.

That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.

A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.

May God help us. Please.

17,000 Italians die annually from the flu.
60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.

What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.

But, if it happens, this would be 60,000 dead in a few weeks/months, not over a year. Which means mass graves, temporary morgues, crematoria working 24/7. As in Wuhan and Iran. It will certainly *feel* medieval.

And, yet again, you are ignoring the 10%150,000 critically ill (some of whom will be permanently damaged, many of whom will have to stay in hospital for a loooong time).

If they crash the Italian health system then who knows what happens next. THAT is the biggest worry.

The annual flu season is over just a few months too - and well over 600k Italians die annually in total so you're talking a 10% variation on normal. Not nice or pleasant, but not biblical or medieval or whatever other exaggeration you want to throw at it today.

...and do we know that the deaths from Coronavirus aren't replacing deaths from flu rather than adding to them?

Not just flu deaths. Seattle's major deathtoll is from the infection sweeping through a care home for the seriously unwell. While more may have died than would have otherwise had were it not for the virus, many may have died within the next 12 months from other causes too.

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

THIS is also encouraging.

South Korea.

About a week ago DavidL said he expected the increase in the country's coronavirus cases to slow down about now. I was somewhat skeptical, but it looks like David was right.

This may be a function of their unusual widespread detection rates, which means they caught a lot of cases early and are now normalising.

BUT if you look at the curve on this page (scroll down), with an optimistic frame of mind, it does look like a classic bell curve is beginning to form, which means the disease MAY be peaking in South Korea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea

It feels almost miraculous. And there are still lots of cases unresolved (neither killed nor cured). And it could be an anomaly because of their testing methods. BUT...... hmm..... a gleam of hope?

It quite incredible that no sooner they got to 1000 a day, the rate started to decline.

Mexicanpete

Chameleon said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.

"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-51789355

And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.

That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.

A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.

May God help us. Please.

17,000 Italians die annually from the flu.
60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.

What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.

But, if it happens, this would be 60,000 dead in a few weeks/months, not over a year. Which means mass graves, temporary morgues, crematoria working 24/7. As in Wuhan and Iran. It will certainly *feel* medieval.

And, yet again, you are ignoring the 10%150,000 critically ill (some of whom will be permanently damaged, many of whom will have to stay in hospital for a loooong time).

If they crash the Italian health system then who knows what happens next. THAT is the biggest worry.

The annual flu season is over just a few months too - and well over 600k Italians die annually in total so you're talking a 10% variation on normal. Not nice or pleasant, but not biblical or medieval or whatever other exaggeration you want to throw at it today.

Yeah, 1.5m cases resulting in 60,000 dead is hardly the end of the world. Times figures by 10, 20, or 30 and it gets a bit tricky.

It is for the 60,000 that succumbed!

Chameleon

eadric said:

THIS is also encouraging.

South Korea.

About a week ago DavidL said he expected the increase in the country's coronavirus cases to slow down about now. I was somewhat skeptical, but it looks like David was right.

This may be a function of their unusual widespread detection rates, which means they caught a lot of cases early and are now normalising.

BUT if you look at the curve on this page (scroll down), with an optimistic frame of mind, it does look like a classic bell curve is beginning to form, which means the disease MAY be peaking in South Korea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea

It feels almost miraculous. And there are still lots of cases unresolved (neither killed nor cured). And it could be an anomaly because of their testing methods. BUT...... hmm..... a gleam of hope?

The bear case is that they've got through the cult's members, so now they don't have a big list of people to test - hence positive test percentage goes down.

tlg86

On the monarchy, worth remembering that Charles is 71. All those wanting the monarchy to skip a generation may get their wish.

FrancisUrquhart

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

THIS is also encouraging.

South Korea.

About a week ago DavidL said he expected the increase in the country's coronavirus cases to slow down about now. I was somewhat skeptical, but it looks like David was right.

This may be a function of their unusual widespread detection rates, which means they caught a lot of cases early and are now normalising.

BUT if you look at the curve on this page (scroll down), with an optimistic frame of mind, it does look like a classic bell curve is beginning to form, which means the disease MAY be peaking in South Korea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea

It feels almost miraculous. And there are still lots of cases unresolved (neither killed nor cured). And it could be an anomaly because of their testing methods. BUT...... hmm..... a gleam of hope?

The bear case is that they've got through the cult's members, so now they don't have a big list of people to test - hence positive test percentage goes down.

But I thought they were still aggressively testing the public using drive-up stations.

geoffw

Foxy said:

On the Molecular aspects of soap and Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/status/1236549305189597189?s=19

Thanks for this detailed explanation. So when I posted this a couple of days ago, I gave the short version roughly correct:

AIUI soap, e.g. sodium stearate, works by having one part of the molecule soluble in water (Na+) and the other part soluble in oil, so I was thinking that perhaps the lipids in the virus envelope would be dissolved in the stearate (or modern equivalent) part.

DecrepiterJohnL

eadric said:

LostPassword said:

Fishing said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The annual flu season is over just a few months too - and well over 600k Italians die annually in total so you're talking a 10% variation on normal. Not nice or pleasant, but not biblical or medieval or whatever other exaggeration you want to throw at it today.

Also, given that many of the 60k would be elderly people with preexisting conditions, a large number, perhaps the majority, would have died this year anyway of something else.

One of the big winners from a widespread pandemic like this if it escalates will be the pensions industry. In fact, the conspiracy theory writes itself. A great plot for a thriller writer, if anybody knows one of those.

I think Michael Crichton wrote a novel about eco-terrorists who planted a nuclear device on the mid-Atlantic ridge. Given the effect on the airline industry, the reduction in air pollution from the Chinese shutdown, the almost suspicious lack of deaths among the young - you could write a similar thriller pointing the finger at a school climate striker with a flair for virology...

If I had to go All Grassy Knoll, I'd say this virus was a CIA plot to stop China taking over from America as the global hegemon. Pretty damn successful.... but then it potentially backfired....

Why would the CIA want to target China and Iran? *innocent face*

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

On the monarchy, worth remembering that Charles is 71. All those wanting the monarchy to skip a generation may get their wish.

We could have a regency this year with the Duke of York and Prince Harry running the show.

Sean_F

Wiglaf or Aethelgifu.

LostPassword

On South Korea it always looked like they were well-organised and therefore likely to get on top of the situation, so it's not particularly news that they have started to.

What's more important to look for is any sign that Italy have done so, after initially letting it get away from them. Or indeed any other European country where we are now seeing large growths in cases - e.g. Germany, France, Spain.

Then we would mostly be left to worry about Iran, the US, Egypt and possibly somewhere new.

Chameleon

FrancisUrquhart said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

THIS is also encouraging.

South Korea.

About a week ago DavidL said he expected the increase in the country's coronavirus cases to slow down about now. I was somewhat skeptical, but it looks like David was right.

This may be a function of their unusual widespread detection rates, which means they caught a lot of cases early and are now normalising.

BUT if you look at the curve on this page (scroll down), with an optimistic frame of mind, it does look like a classic bell curve is beginning to form, which means the disease MAY be peaking in South Korea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea

It feels almost miraculous. And there are still lots of cases unresolved (neither killed nor cured). And it could be an anomaly because of their testing methods. BUT...... hmm..... a gleam of hope?

The bear case is that they've got through the cult's members, so now they don't have a big list of people to test - hence positive test percentage goes down.

But I thought they were still aggressively testing the public using drive-up stations.

They are, but if you go from: 10,000 tests of a population testing positive at 10% (cult) & 10,000 other tests (2% pos), to 20,000 other tests (2% pos) you're going to see a sharp decline, despite potentially little change in the rate of the virus in the general population.

Tracing down the cult will have helped *massively* contain the spread of the virus, but it's too soon to be overly optimistic.

Mexicanpete

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

On the monarchy, worth remembering that Charles is 71. All those wanting the monarchy to skip a generation may get their wish.

We could have a regency this year with the Duke of York and Prince Harry running the show.

As Harry has been fired, surely Andrew gets a solo gig. If the youngsters were also to succumb do we get King Andrew?

Andy_JS

Maybe a useful comparison will be with the 2009 flu pandemic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

FrancisUrquhart

Greece has banned sporting events with spectators and school field trips for two weeks after the number of coronavirus cases in the country rose tenfold, from seven to 73.

geoffw

Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and S. Korea were the "Tiger Economies" of the 1990s.
Bit of a coincidence, no?

Chameleon

Andy_JS said:

Maybe a useful comparison will be with the 2009 flu pandemic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

Worth noting that initial estimates for CFR was that it was as deadly as seasonal flu.

FrancisUrquhart

Interesting that although 6 out of 1000 healthcare professions died in Wuhan, 15% ended up in hospital themselves.

https://youtu.be/0f0GAuctVk8

FrancisUrquhart

Donald taken another one out?

An air strike in Somalia has killed a senior commander of militant Islamist group al-Shabab, state radio reports.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-51789724

Philip_Thompson

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

On the monarchy, worth remembering that Charles is 71. All those wanting the monarchy to skip a generation may get their wish.

We could have a regency this year with the Duke of York and Prince Harry running the show.

As Harry has been fired, surely Andrew gets a solo gig. If the youngsters were also to succumb do we get King Andrew?

LOL. Has Harry formally left the line of succession? I thought he was still a Royal just not doing Royal duties. A Queen Meghan would be amusing.

FrancisUrquhart

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1236677942941560834?s=20

DavidL

eadric said:

THIS is also encouraging.

South Korea.

About a week ago DavidL said he expected the increase in the country's coronavirus cases to slow down about now. I was somewhat skeptical, but it looks like David was right.

This may be a function of their unusual widespread detection rates, which means they caught a lot of cases early and are now normalising.

BUT if you look at the curve on this page (scroll down), with an optimistic frame of mind, it does look like a classic bell curve is beginning to form, which means the disease MAY be peaking in South Korea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea

It feels almost miraculous. And there are still lots of cases unresolved (neither killed nor cured). And it could be an anomaly because of their testing methods. BUT...... hmm..... a gleam of hope?

It was their hyper aggressive search for infected people that made we think this way. They completed distorted the curve bringing forward cases others would not have found for a week or two. But in doing this they have also isolated potential spreaders impacting on future distribution.

Its a remarkable achievement given the behaviour of that loony church which put them so far behind the 8 ball in the first place and it is evidence that this virus can be beaten without welding people into houses.

The exponential models' biggest flaw is that they assume no change in behaviour. That is the assumption that must be undermined.

LostPassword

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

On the monarchy, worth remembering that Charles is 71. All those wanting the monarchy to skip a generation may get their wish.

We could have a regency this year with the Duke of York and Prince Harry running the show.

As Harry has been fired, surely Andrew gets a solo gig. If the youngsters were also to succumb do we get King Andrew?

I think there still haven't been any deaths in under-tens so there's no chance that all four of the Royal great-grandchildren will fall victim to the virus, but avoiding making Andrew Regent would be a bit awkward and not doing so even more so.

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

geoffw said:

Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and S. Korea were the "Tiger Economies" of the 1990s.
Bit of a coincidence, no?

If you had to choose which countries would be best placed to weather a storm like coronavirus, it would be rich, well-organised, low obesity, hygiene-conscious countries with obedient, rule-following populations. That is to say: Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan.

The western country which is closest to this model is probably Germany.

What are the smoking rates like in South Korea? Are they as high as places like China?

JohnLilburne

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

That’s a thought and a half. Imagine what happens if Operation London Bridge gets called in the middle of widespread lockdowns and quarantines? I hope the two sets of disaster planners are speaking to each other!

Her Maj has a very quiet funeral, organised by the Co-op, with just two cars following....

That, or Liz gets put in the freezer until the world can properly pay its respects.

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

That’s a thought and a half. Imagine what happens if Operation London Bridge gets called in the middle of widespread lockdowns and quarantines? I hope the two sets of disaster planners are speaking to each other!

Her Maj has a very quiet funeral, organised by the Co-op, with just two cars following....

That, or Liz gets put in the freezer until the world can properly pay its respects.

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

That’s a thought and a half. Imagine what happens if Operation London Bridge gets called in the middle of widespread lockdowns and quarantines? I hope the two sets of disaster planners are speaking to each other!

Her Maj has a very quiet funeral, organised by the Co-op, with just two cars following....

That, or Liz gets put in the freezer until the world can properly pay its respects.

I would guess a quiet entombment with no ceremony or notice given. And a "State Memorial Service" later. Or we could bury her twice, like Richard III

FrancisUrquhart

Prof Tom Solomon, Walton Centre NHS foundation trust, and Institute of Infection & Global Health, University of Liverpool, said 67 new cases in the UK was not that big an increase nor unexpected given it was likely the number of cases would double every few days.

As the numbers continue to grow we are moving from a phase of containment, where we hoped we could stop the outbreak completely, to one of delay. This means all our efforts are aimed at slowing the outbreak down.

Ultimately perhaps 50 to 80% of the population may get infected with this virus. Currently about 5% of patients are needing hospitalisation. If all these people become infected in a short time window, eg a few weeks, then we will have a very large number who need to go to hospital all at the same time. And the health services will really struggle.

However, If we can spread the outbreak over many months, the health services will be able to cope better with the same number of patients, because not everyone will need to care at the same time.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-live-updates-third-death-in-australia-as-cases-reach-more-than-70

Lets hope it isn't 80 or even 50%. 5% in hospital is half of China.

ydoethur

First case of Covid-19 in Tamworth - I believe there has also been one in Lichfield.

None in Cannock yet that I know of.

O/T - TSE, oh my goodness. That pun may have seemed godlike to you but it is no Zeus at all to me.

ydoethur

LostPassword said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

On the monarchy, worth remembering that Charles is 71. All those wanting the monarchy to skip a generation may get their wish.

We could have a regency this year with the Duke of York and Prince Harry running the show.

As Harry has been fired, surely Andrew gets a solo gig. If the youngsters were also to succumb do we get King Andrew?

I think there still haven't been any deaths in under-tens so there's no chance that all four of the Royal great-grandchildren will fall victim to the virus, but avoiding making Andrew Regent would be a bit awkward and not doing so even more so.

Under the terms of the Regency Act, Harry would still be Regent ahead of Andrew.

If Andrew became the anointed one, I suspect he would suffer a mysterious nasty accident. Or perhaps, like Epstein, he would decide life was no longer worth living.

FrancisUrquhart

JohnLilburne said:

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

That’s a thought and a half. Imagine what happens if Operation London Bridge gets called in the middle of widespread lockdowns and quarantines? I hope the two sets of disaster planners are speaking to each other!

Her Maj has a very quiet funeral, organised by the Co-op, with just two cars following....

That, or Liz gets put in the freezer until the world can properly pay its respects.

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

That’s a thought and a half. Imagine what happens if Operation London Bridge gets called in the middle of widespread lockdowns and quarantines? I hope the two sets of disaster planners are speaking to each other!

Her Maj has a very quiet funeral, organised by the Co-op, with just two cars following....

That, or Liz gets put in the freezer until the world can properly pay its respects.

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

That’s a thought and a half. Imagine what happens if Operation London Bridge gets called in the middle of widespread lockdowns and quarantines? I hope the two sets of disaster planners are speaking to each other!

Her Maj has a very quiet funeral, organised by the Co-op, with just two cars following....

That, or Liz gets put in the freezer until the world can properly pay its respects.

I would guess a quiet entombment with no ceremony or notice given. And a "State Memorial Service" later. Or we could bury her twice, like Richard III

You aren't suggesting sticking Liz under a car park are you?

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

geoffw said:

Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and S. Korea were the "Tiger Economies" of the 1990s.
Bit of a coincidence, no?

If you had to choose which countries would be best placed to weather a storm like coronavirus, it would be rich, well-organised, low obesity, hygiene-conscious countries with obedient, rule-following populations. That is to say: Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan.

The western country which is closest to this model is probably Germany.

What are the smoking rates like in South Korea? Are they as high as places like China?

A quick Google shows that they are about the same: ~25%

However China is way more polluted than South Korea, which must have an effect.

Incidentally, it's just occurred to me that differences in percentage of smokers might account, by itself, for the varying mortality rates by gender. Men are more likely to smoke.

In China there is a huge variation between men and women smoking.

FrancisUrquhart

The Italian army's chief of staff, Gen Salvatore Farina, has tested positive for coronavirus.

Casino_Royale

Eadric.

FrancisUrquhart

Following on from earlier discussion of are some people immune...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08600tz?at_medium=custom7&at_custom3=@BBCPM&at_custom4=133A3E98-6139-11EA-BC0E-7DF0C28169F1&at_campaign=64&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=[post+type]

This guy got it in Italy, other than that has been alone with his wife for the entire time after flying back and she has provided all his care, and despite that, she doesn't have it.

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

geoffw said:

Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and S. Korea were the "Tiger Economies" of the 1990s.
Bit of a coincidence, no?

If you had to choose which countries would be best placed to weather a storm like coronavirus, it would be rich, well-organised, low obesity, hygiene-conscious countries with obedient, rule-following populations. That is to say: Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan.

The western country which is closest to this model is probably Germany.

What are the smoking rates like in South Korea? Are they as high as places like China?

A quick Google shows that they are about the same: ~25%

However China is way more polluted than South Korea, which must have an effect.

Incidentally, it's just occurred to me that differences in percentage of smokers might account, by itself, for the varying mortality rates by gender. Men are more likely to smoke.

In China there is a huge variation between men and women smoking.

Yes, the difference is almost unbelievable

"These gender divisions are reflected in differences in smoking rates mentioned above — 52.9 percent in Chinese men and 2.4 percent in Chinese women."

https://signal.supchina.com/chinas-cigarette-smoking-epidemic/

Women know your place...get in the kitchen while us men sit around and smoke and drink.

Casino_Royale

Mohammed.

Casino_Royale

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

It is treason to imagine the death of the monarch.

Casino_Royale

Baby McBabyface

FrancisUrquhart

Martin Hibberd, Professor of Emerging Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) said the numbers on their own are not very informative now.

We need to know if these new cases are forming clusters or can be traced to known cases in other ways (such as imports from Italy) to understand if we have moved out of the initial containment stage.

If they are clusters, we are sampling contacts of cases sufficiently and understanding the outbreak dynamics. If they are apparently randomly distributed, then we know there are more cases than are being reported and we can expect rapid increases in numbers over the coming days and weeks.

kinabalu

Just back from an unavoidable foray outside which involved touching some potentially unsavoury surfaces. Key thing, therefore, no touching of face until home regained and hands washed thoroughly with soap and warm water. Easier said than done. Nose very itchy and extremely difficult not to attend to it. Managed it though. This thing focuses the mind.

BTW, spoke to my brother today - he's senior in the NHS - and he told me that the tests for the virus are taking 5 days to process and generate a result. Therefore the figures for confirmed cases in the UK are well in arrears. There will be many more positives than have yet been reported.

Nigelb

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

It is treason to imagine the death of the monarch.

In Saudi Arabia, perhaps.

MarqueeMark

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Italian army's chief of staff, Gen Salvatore Farina, has tested positive for coronavirus.

Well, at least HE has a decent excuse for not fighting.....

FF43

eadric said:

To get a bit AndyJS, Germany has 800 cases and STILL no deaths. It does become curious.

Another country with a real handle on this is Taiwan. Just 45 cases and 1 death, and very slow growth. Apparently they learned from SARS: act early, quarantine many, screen incomers, dole out sanitiser, central epidemic control.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/taiwan-reins-spread-coronavirus-countries-stumble-200307034353325.html

I do hope HMG is looking to Taipei.

It's not screamingly obvious what Germany is doing that Italy isn't, but the statistical difference probably does have an empirical basis.

As far as I can tell there are three things that lead to epidemic management success:

1. Test early and often. South Korea, which is testing at ten times the rate we are, is the poster child here.
2. Keep those that are infected well away from those are not. Self isolation doesn't fully work if you pass the virus onto your family members.
3. Look after your healthcare workers. They are holding it all together.

Put together these things should result in a better chance of survival, hopefully without needing to shut down the country.

kinabalu

FrancisUrquhart said:

In China there is a huge variation between men and women smoking.

And, I believe, in Japan.

Sunil_Prasannan

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

geoffw said:

Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and S. Korea were the "Tiger Economies" of the 1990s.
Bit of a coincidence, no?

If you had to choose which countries would be best placed to weather a storm like coronavirus, it would be rich, well-organised, low obesity, hygiene-conscious countries with obedient, rule-following populations. That is to say: Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan.

The western country which is closest to this model is probably Germany.

What are the smoking rates like in South Korea? Are they as high as places like China?

A quick Google shows that they are about the same: ~25%

However China is way more polluted than South Korea, which must have an effect.

Incidentally, it's just occurred to me that differences in percentage of smokers might account, by itself, for the varying mortality rates by gender. Men are more likely to smoke.

Is it possible that the droplets in vapes can carry the virus?

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

LostPassword said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

On the monarchy, worth remembering that Charles is 71. All those wanting the monarchy to skip a generation may get their wish.

We could have a regency this year with the Duke of York and Prince Harry running the show.

As Harry has been fired, surely Andrew gets a solo gig. If the youngsters were also to succumb do we get King Andrew?

I think there still haven't been any deaths in under-tens so there's no chance that all four of the Royal great-grandchildren will fall victim to the virus, but avoiding making Andrew Regent would be a bit awkward and not doing so even more so.

Under the terms of the Regency Act, Harry would still be Regent ahead of Andrew.

If Andrew became the anointed one, I suspect he would suffer a mysterious nasty accident. Or perhaps, like Epstein, he would decide life was no longer worth living.

You’re suggesting there’s an Epstein bar to the succession ...?

FrancisUrquhart

On Topic, if Boris wants to be as popular as possible surely has to call it "The Child".

JohnLilburne

Casino_Royale said:

Mohammed.

Ali Kemal, after Boris's great grandfather

IanB2

Uncork your drink of choice, and settle down for the big night of Crufts 2020, live shortly on Channel 4. Woof!

squareroot2

FrancisUrquhart said:

On Topic, if Boris wants to be as popular as possible surely has to call it "The Child".

what about a child not of colour.

FrancisUrquhart

Do all these people not worry that hanging around in such a crowd might be more risky than running out of bog roll?

https://twitter.com/adamclarkitv/status/1236289649737371648?s=20

Nigelb

kinabalu said:

Just back from an unavoidable foray outside which involved touching some potentially unsavoury surfaces. Key thing, therefore, no touching of face until home regained and hands washed thoroughly with soap and warm water. Easier said than done. Nose very itchy and extremely difficult not to attend to it. Managed it though. This thing focuses the mind.

BTW, spoke to my brother today - he's senior in the NHS - and he told me that the tests for the virus are taking 5 days to process and generate a result. Therefore the figures for confirmed cases in the UK are well in arrears. There will be many more positives than have yet been reported.

Spectacle wearers have an advantage here - you can scratch your face with the temple tips.

Nigelb

Sunil_Prasannan said:

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

geoffw said:

Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and S. Korea were the "Tiger Economies" of the 1990s.
Bit of a coincidence, no?

If you had to choose which countries would be best placed to weather a storm like coronavirus, it would be rich, well-organised, low obesity, hygiene-conscious countries with obedient, rule-following populations. That is to say: Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan.

The western country which is closest to this model is probably Germany.

What are the smoking rates like in South Korea? Are they as high as places like China?

A quick Google shows that they are about the same: ~25%

However China is way more polluted than South Korea, which must have an effect.

Incidentally, it's just occurred to me that differences in percentage of smokers might account, by itself, for the varying mortality rates by gender. Men are more likely to smoke.

Is it possible that the droplets in vapes can carry the virus?

Quite possibly.

Casino_Royale

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

It is treason to imagine the death of the monarch.

In Saudi Arabia, perhaps.

It is here too!

Orf with your head.

Sunil_Prasannan

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do all these people not worry that hanging around in such a crowd might be more risky than running out of bog roll?

https://twitter.com/adamclarkitv/status/1236289649737371648?s=20

I asked last night but I've yet to be told a decent recipe for cooking toilet roll...

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do all these people not worry that hanging around in such a crowd might be more risky than running out of bog roll?

https://twitter.com/adamclarkitv/status/1236289649737371648?s=20

Like Sainsbury’s, I love Costco, they keep the riff raff out of Waitrose.

Nigelb

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Elizabeth or Philip given there’s a reasonable chance one of them is no longer with us in the Autumn.

It is treason to imagine the death of the monarch.

In Saudi Arabia, perhaps.

It is here too!

Orf with your head.

Well that’s half of PB condemned, then.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do all these people not worry that hanging around in such a crowd might be more risky than running out of bog roll?

https://twitter.com/adamclarkitv/status/1236289649737371648?s=20

Like Sainsbury’s, I love Costco, they keep the riff raff out of Waitrose.

Are you calling Mrs U riff raff?

LostPassword

ydoethur said:

LostPassword said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

On the monarchy, worth remembering that Charles is 71. All those wanting the monarchy to skip a generation may get their wish.

We could have a regency this year with the Duke of York and Prince Harry running the show.

As Harry has been fired, surely Andrew gets a solo gig. If the youngsters were also to succumb do we get King Andrew?

I think there still haven't been any deaths in under-tens so there's no chance that all four of the Royal great-grandchildren will fall victim to the virus, but avoiding making Andrew Regent would be a bit awkward and not doing so even more so.

Under the terms of the Regency Act, Harry would still be Regent ahead of Andrew.

If Andrew became the anointed one, I suspect he would suffer a mysterious nasty accident. Or perhaps, like Epstein, he would decide life was no longer worth living.

I was assuming Harry had been a virus victim along with his brother for the sake of the speculation. (No-one wants to be seen with Andrew, so that ups his chance of survival).

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do all these people not worry that hanging around in such a crowd might be more risky than running out of bog roll?

https://twitter.com/adamclarkitv/status/1236289649737371648?s=20

Like Sainsbury’s, I love Costco, they keep the riff raff out of Waitrose.

Are you calling Mrs U riff raff?

Nope, she’s a lady of impeccable taste.

Sunil_Prasannan

Casino_Royale said:

Mohammed.

Sunil

FrancisUrquhart

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do all these people not worry that hanging around in such a crowd might be more risky than running out of bog roll?

https://twitter.com/adamclarkitv/status/1236289649737371648?s=20

I asked last night but I've yet to be told a decent recipe for cooking toilet roll...

Isn't there an episode of Bear Grylls where he drinks the water from elephant poo?

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do all these people not worry that hanging around in such a crowd might be more risky than running out of bog roll?

https://twitter.com/adamclarkitv/status/1236289649737371648?s=20

Like Sainsbury’s, I love Costco, they keep the riff raff out of Waitrose.

Are you calling Mrs U riff raff?

Nope, she’s a lady of impeccable taste.

I wouldn't go that far, she did after all decide I was a worthy partner.

rpjs

TOILET PAPER CRISIS UPDATE:

Although Westchester County now has the biggest outbreak in the US, at 83 cases, there was no, repeat NO, signs of panic buying of toilet paper at the C-Town supermarket in Tarrytown today: in fact it looks like the store got extra deliveries in in anticipation of higher demand and is struggling to find space to put them.

That is all.

Nigelb

IanB2 said:

Uncork your drink of choice, and settle down for the big night of Crufts 2020, live shortly on Channel 4. Woof!

150k attendees from across the nation... what could possibly go wrong ?

On that note, how many French fans are watching their team’s annihilation by Scotland ?

isam

kinabalu said:

Just back from an unavoidable foray outside which involved touching some potentially unsavoury surfaces. Key thing, therefore, no touching of face until home regained and hands washed thoroughly with soap and warm water. Easier said than done. Nose very itchy and extremely difficult not to attend to it. Managed it though. This thing focuses the mind.

BTW, spoke to my brother today - he's senior in the NHS - and he told me that the tests for the virus are taking 5 days to process and generate a result. Therefore the figures for confirmed cases in the UK are well in arrears. There will be many more positives than have yet been reported.

I had barely been out all week, and have been washing my hands whilst singing "Happy Birthday Mr President" 20 times a day, then at football yesterday I walked into the toilets to clean my boots with just socks on my feet.

See you on the other side

matthiasfromhamburg

Casino_Royale said:

Mohammed.

The Johnson family heritage would rather suggest Mehmet.

algarkirk

Naive question I'm sure but how can Milan be in lockdown if Ryanair (and others no doubt) are regularly flying in and out of it right now and tomorrow?

AlastairMeeks

What odds on Ivanka?

matthiasfromhamburg

eadric said:

Germany now has 1000+ cases.... and STILL no deaths.

https://twitter.com/CoronaTurkeyEN/status/1236685479807942656?s=20

Rumours that Germany is closing borders and starting mass quarantine.


EDIT: Ah, there is another rumour that the reason Germany is posting no deaths is because of their privacy laws. No idea if this is true.

No, that's nonsense.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

LostPassword said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

On the monarchy, worth remembering that Charles is 71. All those wanting the monarchy to skip a generation may get their wish.

We could have a regency this year with the Duke of York and Prince Harry running the show.

As Harry has been fired, surely Andrew gets a solo gig. If the youngsters were also to succumb do we get King Andrew?

I think there still haven't been any deaths in under-tens so there's no chance that all four of the Royal great-grandchildren will fall victim to the virus, but avoiding making Andrew Regent would be a bit awkward and not doing so even more so.

Under the terms of the Regency Act, Harry would still be Regent ahead of Andrew.

If Andrew became the anointed one, I suspect he would suffer a mysterious nasty accident. Or perhaps, like Epstein, he would decide life was no longer worth living.

You’re suggesting there’s an Epstein bar to the succession ...?

Very good. Almost as good as puns about the royal succession being decided by a corona.

stodge

Afternoon all

Shouting, screaming, children crying, people pushing and shoving, shelves stripped bare...

Typical for a Sunday afternoon in East Ham High Street.

kinabalu

squareroot2 said:

what about a child not of colour.

Let's see first. Might be black. If so, and it turns out that Trevor Phillips or Stormzy is the father, and "Boris" tells the world that he knows this and it doesn't matter a jot, he will be bringing up he or she as his own with unconditional love, then that would be a game-changer for how people view him.

ydoethur

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Do all these people not worry that hanging around in such a crowd might be more risky than running out of bog roll?

https://twitter.com/adamclarkitv/status/1236289649737371648?s=20

I asked last night but I've yet to be told a decent recipe for cooking toilet roll...

Well, duh. You don't cook it. Everyone knows that.

You spread it with butter and eat it raw.

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

Germany now has 1000+ cases.... and STILL no deaths.

https://twitter.com/CoronaTurkeyEN/status/1236685479807942656?s=20

Rumours that Germany is closing borders and starting mass quarantine.


EDIT: Ah, there is another rumour that the reason Germany is posting no deaths is because of their privacy laws. No idea if this is true.

Big leap in numbers. If the UK follows that pattern, it will be 1000s come this time next week.