We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
For a while maybe. Irrespective of how bad Coronavirus becomes, eventually equilibriums will be restored. The possible exception being the beer brand which may need a name change. Remember slimming product Ayds?
And unfortunately for Boris Johnson this is just the sort of crisis when he looks like the total schmuck that most of us knew he was.
Tony Blair in this situation would have had gravitas.
In fact, Jeremy Hunt was the true statesman today.
.
Quite agree.
Johnson's in for a rough ride in the newspapers this weekend I fancy.
Not sure what he is supposed to do - The UK is managing better at the moment than most countries
To be fair...I think Boris will actually be OK if it all goes tits up...a touch of bullshitty, sunny, stiff upper lip optimism would go along way...
And you are right...what else could he be doing now.??
Being visual and to be fair he has been across the media this evening
Boris would be alright in a crisis...better than Theresa May or Gordon Brown who would just make you feel like all is lost from the get go....
I can see the photo ops now of Boris wearing a mask doing ward rounds and chairing a govt of national unity
And that is the point Tyson.
We need to see him both over the floods which look like getting another hammering this weekend and covid 19
When we do see him we have the stupid smirk on his face. It's not a good look.
Tony Blair knew how to act concerned.
It gave him an 80 seat majority
And I've been one of those to praise him for that. But this is fast becoming a crisis and that's a whole different ball game.
I remember Callaghan returning from Jamaica during the winter of discontent 1979 and his throwaway casual responses at Heathrow cost him the election. Then there was the fiasco of the Tories in 1992 after Black Wednesday when Norman Lamont and John Major looked like clowns at a dysfunctional circus.
Boris Johnson hitherto has got away with his blague approach. This could be very different and if he doesn't up his game he's going to get panned. I'm already seeing it from some staunch tory journalist friends.
The irony is after all his years of daydreaming about being the next Churchill in time of national crisis, it may be said crisis that finds him wanting,
And unfortunately for Boris Johnson this is just the sort of crisis when he looks like the total schmuck that most of us knew he was.
Tony Blair in this situation would have had gravitas.
In fact, Jeremy Hunt was the true statesman today.
Surely appointing Jeremy Hunt virus supremo is going to be the first order of business for Cobra on Monday morning? Anything else would be stupid. Matt Hancock may feel his nose a little out of joint but this is absolutely not just a health issue. What schools are to shut and when? What should border security be doing? What businesses are going to get support? What sporting events can go ahead, if any? So many different departments have roles to play here. The government needs to be seen to be on top of this if panic is to be avoided.
Quite agree.
Johnson's in for a rough ride in the newspapers this weekend I fancy.
I was highly critical of him on this forum earlier and indeed two days ago
He is getting away with it partly due to labour's idiotic leadership race going on until the 4th April and partly because he is Boris
He needs to step up to the plate on both the floods and covid 19 otherwise the narrative he is lazy or does not care will take hold
I am not impressed with him over this
I would normally take any opportunity to beat-up on Johnson's Prime Ministerial.failures.
However, to be absolutely honest in order to avoid being a hostage to fortune, keeping quiet is probably a wise move by Mr Johnson.
Yep but delaying COBRA until Monday is, as Tom Newton-Dunn (The Sun) said, a really poor optic for a concerned public.
The scary thing is this will probably be much about nothing in the end if governments and healthcare agencies take this seriously and do what needs to be done, as our government is doing.
By ignoring this they're going to let this go unnecessarily rampant and make this unnecessarily deadly. MORONS!
Yep. Tackle it quickly, slow the spread, do random tests of people in respiratory distress, and make the peak as low as possible. We are doing all the right things.
In the US it's full denial time. And as I post this a second case of community transmission has apparently been found in a different part of California.
And unfortunately for Boris Johnson this is just the sort of crisis when he looks like the total schmuck that most of us knew he was.
Tony Blair in this situation would have had gravitas.
In fact, Jeremy Hunt was the true statesman today.
.
Quite agree.
Johnson's in for a rough ride in the newspapers this weekend I fancy.
Not sure what he is supposed to do - The UK is managing better at the moment than most countries
To be fair...I think Boris will actually be OK if it all goes tits up...a touch of bullshitty, sunny, stiff upper lip optimism would go along way...
And you are right...what else could he be doing now.??
Being visual and to be fair he has been across the media this evening
Boris would be alright in a crisis...better than Theresa May or Gordon Brown who would just make you feel like all is lost from the get go....
I can see the photo ops now of Boris wearing a mask doing ward rounds and chairing a govt of national unity
And that is the point Tyson.
We need to see him both over the floods which look like getting another hammering this weekend and covid 19
When we do see him we have the stupid smirk on his face. It's not a good look.
Tony Blair knew how to act concerned.
It gave him an 80 seat majority
And I've been one of those to praise him for that. But this is fast becoming a crisis and that's a whole different ball game.
I remember Callaghan returning from Jamaica during the winter of discontent 1979 and his throwaway casual responses at Heathrow cost him the election. Then there was the fiasco of the Tories in 1992 after Black Wednesday when Norman Lamont and John Major looked like clowns at a dysfunctional circus.
Boris Johnson hitherto has got away with his blague approach. This could be very different and if he doesn't up his game he's going to get panned. I'm already seeing it from some staunch tory journalist friends.
I have been critical of his lack of media presence but to be fair he is there for 5 years irrespective of how he may or may not get panned
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I think you're rather overegging it. China has it seems successfully contained this in Hubei province and I think long-term it will make negligible difference to China. Plants in Shanghai etc are already getting back to normal.
As this spreads around the world right now South Korea, Iran and Italy are now the troublesome spots and from there it can spread to other places too. China may have been "patient zero" here but long term the Chinese will be back up and running.
It looks to have peaked in China, though of course the figures may not be reliable. So it looks like 3 months to peak, and probably a similar amount or more to resolve.
This is going to be with us all year, and will be quite an economic hit, because severe restrictions and shutdowns will be needed. Probably peak with UK and USA in June/July.
Though if this is seasonally effected then that will be a much softer peak than we could have had. Tomorrow is the last day of winter officially, by June/July we're into the summer and that will help naturally fight of flu spreading - and ease pressure on the NHS.
We have to consider the political implications of Corona Crisis from its economics. BREXIT CAN’T HAPPEN. We JUST CANNOT take on the economic and financial turmoil of the Brexit change in the middle of Corona Recession. Brexit has to be paused. And it will be paused. Start betting on it.
It already has happened. Wishful thinking doesn’t change that.
Sure, but maybe it gives Boris an excuse to extend the transition period?
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Or the virus does it for us. Trump is no youngster.....
First we had the floods, then covid 19, and tonight reports from the Turkey - Greece/EU border of thousands of refugees being openly sent to the border by Turkey who are trying to put pressure on the EU over Syria
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Is it?
I'll be honest: the biggest reason I don't want to go on cruises preceded the virus.
I don't want to pay a lot of money to be around fat gluttonous people who drink too much, have nothing of interest to say and don't know how to behave.
Age makes no difference. I've encountered some shocking behaviour amongst retirees as bad as any lager louts.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Cunard is the one liner company I like.
At least it has a bit of class and style.
I'd be still be terrified of getting stuck with or near some nightmare people though.
And I've been one of those to praise him for that. But this is fast becoming a crisis and that's a whole different ball game.
I remember Callaghan returning from Jamaica during the winter of discontent 1979 and his throwaway casual responses at Heathrow cost him the election. Then there was the fiasco of the Tories in 1992 after Black Wednesday when Norman Lamont and John Major looked like clowns at a dysfunctional circus.
Boris Johnson hitherto has got away with his blague approach. This could be very different and if he doesn't up his game he's going to get panned. I'm already seeing it from some staunch tory journalist friends.
He's quietly getting on with the job rather than showing up for photo ops like Blair. That's what he should be doing. The NHS is doing a good job, let them do it.
People are bandying around OTT words like "plague" or "pandemic" but while this has potential it isn't either yet. If this ends with no or negligible amounts of deaths in the UK then it could reasonably at the end of this be looked back on as a bullet missed and a job well done.
Not that I expect anyone here to give the government credit for a job well done. The NHS staff may get some credit.
We have to consider the political implications of Corona Crisis from its economics. BREXIT CAN’T HAPPEN. We JUST CANNOT take on the economic and financial turmoil of the Brexit change in the middle of Corona Recession. Brexit has to be paused. And it will be paused. Start betting on it.
It already has happened. Wishful thinking doesn’t change that.
Sure, but maybe it gives Boris an excuse to extend the transition period?
And unfortunately for Boris Johnson this is just the sort of crisis when he looks like the total schmuck that most of us knew he was.
Tony Blair in this situation would have had gravitas.
In fact, Jeremy Hunt was the true statesman today.
Surely appointing Jeremy Hunt virus supremo is going to be the first order of business for Cobra on Monday morning? Anything else would be stupid. Matt Hancock may feel his nose a little out of joint but this is absolutely not just a health issue. What schools are to shut and when? What should border security be doing? What businesses are going to get support? What sporting events can go ahead, if any? So many different departments have roles to play here. The government needs to be seen to be on top of this if panic is to be avoided.
Quite agree.
Johnson's in for a rough ride in the newspapers this weekend I fancy.
I was highly critical of him on this forum earlier and indeed two days ago
He is getting away with it partly due to labour's idiotic leadership race going on until the 4th April and partly because he is Boris
He needs to step up to the plate on both the floods and covid 19 otherwise the narrative he is lazy or does not care will take hold
I am not impressed with him over this
I would normally take any opportunity to beat-up on Johnson's Prime Ministerial.failures.
However, to be absolutely honest in order to avoid being a hostage to fortune, keeping quiet is probably a wise move by Mr Johnson.
Yep but delaying COBRA until Monday is, as Tom Newton-Dunn (The Sun) said, a really poor optic for a concerned public.
Two months into an 80 majority 5 year term, who cares about optics?
First we had the floods, then covid 19, and tonight reports from the Turkey - Greece/EU border of thousands of refugees being openly sent to the border by Turkey who are trying to put pressure on the EU over Syria
All complex issues for politicians to deal with
Refugees crossing borders illegally is just what we do not need when trying to control a pandemic.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Is it?
I'll be honest: the biggest reason I don't want to go on cruises preceded the virus.
I don't want to pay a lot of money to be around fat gluttonous people who drink too much, have nothing of interest to say and don't know how to behave.
Age makes no difference. I've encountered some shocking behaviour amongst retirees as bad as any lager louts.
I have been on 15 cruises and I do not recognise your description. The behaviour is beyond reproach, the international make up of passengers gives rise to lots of interesting conversations, usually non political and travel broadens the mind
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I think you're rather overegging it. China has it seems successfully contained this in Hubei province and I think long-term it will make negligible difference to China. Plants in Shanghai etc are already getting back to normal.
As this spreads around the world right now South Korea, Iran and Italy are now the troublesome spots and from there it can spread to other places too. China may have been "patient zero" here but long term the Chinese will be back up and running.
It looks to have peaked in China, though of course the figures may not be reliable. So it looks like 3 months to peak, and probably a similar amount or more to resolve.
This is going to be with us all year, and will be quite an economic hit, because severe restrictions and shutdowns will be needed. Probably peak with UK and USA in June/July.
The caveat being that it 'peaked' in China more or less purely due to a massive authoritarian government doing things that western governments will be either unwilling or unable to do.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Why would that happen to Boris, who hasn't spent four years dismantling the country's pandemic response unit? This is a really easy gig for a PM because people tend to rally to the government in times of crisis, because it isn't the government's fault, and because the big questions aren't political they are medical. There are dangers like the NHS imploding in a way for which the government can be blamed, but there are opportunities too. Had you considered that coronavirus might turn out to be Boris's Falklands?
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Is it?
I'll be honest: the biggest reason I don't want to go on cruises preceded the virus.
I don't want to pay a lot of money to be around fat gluttonous people who drink too much, have nothing of interest to say and don't know how to behave.
Age makes no difference. I've encountered some shocking behaviour amongst retirees as bad as any lager louts.
I’ve looked at it several times but never gone. It really doesn’t appeal for reasons similar to those you’ve stated. But there is no question that those on index linked pensions have loved it until now.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
We have to consider the political implications of Corona Crisis from its economics. BREXIT CAN’T HAPPEN. We JUST CANNOT take on the economic and financial turmoil of the Brexit change in the middle of Corona Recession. Brexit has to be paused. And it will be paused. Start betting on it.
It already has happened. Wishful thinking doesn’t change that.
Sure, but maybe it gives Boris an excuse to extend the transition period?
I do not expect Boris to extend at all
Probably not. But if he did, it would give him all the cover he needed (along with the supplicant right wing press).
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Is it?
I'll be honest: the biggest reason I don't want to go on cruises preceded the virus.
I don't want to pay a lot of money to be around fat gluttonous people who drink too much, have nothing of interest to say and don't know how to behave.
Age makes no difference. I've encountered some shocking behaviour amongst retirees as bad as any lager louts.
I have been on 15 cruises and I do not recognise your description. The behaviour is beyond reproach, the international make up of passengers gives rise to lots of interesting conversations, usually non political and travel broadens the mind
Fair enough Big G but I've heard too many conflicting stories with your account sufficient to put me off.
If it was a few hundred quid for a couple of days I'd take the chance.
If it's very many thousands (and sometimes tens of thousands) for several weeks then I won't.
And unfortunately for Boris Johnson this is just the sort of crisis when he looks like the total schmuck that most of us knew he was.
Tony Blair in this situation would have had gravitas.
In fact, Jeremy Hunt was the true statesman today.
Surely appointing Jeremy Hunt virus supremo is going to be the first order of business for Cobra on Monday morning? Anything else would be stupid. Matt Hancock may feel his nose a little out of joint but this is absolutely not just a health issue. What schools are to shut and when? What should border security be doing? What businesses are going to get support? What sporting events can go ahead, if any? So many different departments have roles to play here. The government needs to be seen to be on top of this if panic is to be avoided.
Quite agree.
Johnson's in for a rough ride in the newspapers this weekend I fancy.
I was highly critical of him on this forum earlier and indeed two days ago
He is getting away with it partly due to labour's idiotic leadership race going on until the 4th April and partly because he is Boris
He needs to step up to the plate on both the floods and covid 19 otherwise the narrative he is lazy or does not care will take hold
I am not impressed with him over this
I would normally take any opportunity to beat-up on Johnson's Prime Ministerial.failures.
However, to be absolutely honest in order to avoid being a hostage to fortune, keeping quiet is probably a wise move by Mr Johnson.
Yep but delaying COBRA until Monday is, as Tom Newton-Dunn (The Sun) said, a really poor optic for a concerned public.
Two months into an 80 majority 5 year term, who cares about optics?
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
Maybe the islanders would rather you kept your lurgi on North Island, thank you?
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
I've already booked a short holiday there in three weeks time.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I think you're rather overegging it. China has it seems successfully contained this in Hubei province and I think long-term it will make negligible difference to China. Plants in Shanghai etc are already getting back to normal.
As this spreads around the world right now South Korea, Iran and Italy are now the troublesome spots and from there it can spread to other places too. China may have been "patient zero" here but long term the Chinese will be back up and running.
It looks to have peaked in China, though of course the figures may not be reliable. So it looks like 3 months to peak, and probably a similar amount or more to resolve.
This is going to be with us all year, and will be quite an economic hit, because severe restrictions and shutdowns will be needed. Probably peak with UK and USA in June/July.
The caveat being that it 'peaked' in China more or less purely due to a massive authoritarian government doing things that western governments will be either unwilling or unable to do.
Control measures extend a peak, with the benefit being overall fewer deaths.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
I've already booked a short holiday there in three weeks time.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I think you're rather overegging it. China has it seems successfully contained this in Hubei province and I think long-term it will make negligible difference to China. Plants in Shanghai etc are already getting back to normal.
As this spreads around the world right now South Korea, Iran and Italy are now the troublesome spots and from there it can spread to other places too. China may have been "patient zero" here but long term the Chinese will be back up and running.
It looks to have peaked in China, though of course the figures may not be reliable. So it looks like 3 months to peak, and probably a similar amount or more to resolve.
This is going to be with us all year, and will be quite an economic hit, because severe restrictions and shutdowns will be needed. Probably peak with UK and USA in June/July.
The caveat being that it 'peaked' in China more or less purely due to a massive authoritarian government doing things that western governments will be either unwilling or unable to do.
Control measures extend a peak, with the benefit being overall fewer deaths.
I have been on 15 cruises and I do not recognise your description. The behaviour is beyond reproach, the international make up of passengers gives rise to lots of interesting conversations, usually non political and travel broadens the mind
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I think you're rather overegging it. China has it seems successfully contained this in Hubei province and I think long-term it will make negligible difference to China. Plants in Shanghai etc are already getting back to normal.
As this spreads around the world right now South Korea, Iran and Italy are now the troublesome spots and from there it can spread to other places too. China may have been "patient zero" here but long term the Chinese will be back up and running.
It looks to have peaked in China, though of course the figures may not be reliable. So it looks like 3 months to peak, and probably a similar amount or more to resolve.
This is going to be with us all year, and will be quite an economic hit, because severe restrictions and shutdowns will be needed. Probably peak with UK and USA in June/July.
The caveat being that it 'peaked' in China more or less purely due to a massive authoritarian government doing things that western governments will be either unwilling or unable to do.
Control measures extend a peak, with the benefit being overall fewer deaths.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Is it?
I'll be honest: the biggest reason I don't want to go on cruises preceded the virus.
I don't want to pay a lot of money to be around fat gluttonous people who drink too much, have nothing of interest to say and don't know how to behave.
Age makes no difference. I've encountered some shocking behaviour amongst retirees as bad as any lager louts.
I have been on 15 cruises and I do not recognise your description. The behaviour is beyond reproach, the international make up of passengers gives rise to lots of interesting conversations, usually non political and travel broadens the mind
Fair enough Big G but I've heard too many conflicting stories with your account sufficient to put me off.
If it was a few hundred quid for a couple of days I'd take the chance.
If it's very many thousands (and sometimes tens of thousands) for several weeks then I won't.
That is a shame because the cruises we have been on do not fit your description though we have paid from £3,500 for us both to cruise to the Canaries and £20,000 for our expedition cruise to Antartica
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Why would that happen to Boris, who hasn't spent four years dismantling the country's pandemic response unit? This is a really easy gig for a PM because people tend to rally to the government in times of crisis, because it isn't the government's fault, and because the big questions aren't political they are medical. There are dangers like the NHS imploding in a way for which the government can be blamed, but there are opportunities too. Had you considered that coronavirus might turn out to be Boris's Falklands?
Tonight on Channel 4 news there was no one available from the government or from Public Health England to answer questions about the crisis. No one. This is not leadership. This is arrogance, incompetence and cowardice.
I agree this could be Boris's Falklands but he has to start leading. Same over the floods. So far he has been pathetic and woeful. And true to known character. I would be happy to be proven wrong and for him to rise to the occasion. Cometh the hour etc ..
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Is it?
I'll be honest: the biggest reason I don't want to go on cruises preceded the virus.
I don't want to pay a lot of money to be around fat gluttonous people who drink too much, have nothing of interest to say and don't know how to behave.
Age makes no difference. I've encountered some shocking behaviour amongst retirees as bad as any lager louts.
I have been on 15 cruises and I do not recognise your description. The behaviour is beyond reproach, the international make up of passengers gives rise to lots of interesting conversations, usually non political and travel broadens the mind
Fair enough Big G but I've heard too many conflicting stories with your account sufficient to put me off.
If it was a few hundred quid for a couple of days I'd take the chance.
If it's very many thousands (and sometimes tens of thousands) for several weeks then I won't.
On my QM2 outward, I landed on a brilliant table, mix of ages, lots of interesting conversation. Some of us are still in touch by social media. On my return I landed on the table from hell, people with either no conversation or way too much of it. I asked to be moved and landed on a pretty good table again.
I was on the Central Line a couple of days ago going through Bank and Liverpool Street at 8 in the morning, and actually got a seat. Just shows how many people are not using the Tube at the moment. (Oddly enough the Jubilee Line at Southwark was crowded at lunchtime, I think due to tourists).
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
In all honesty, this horrible bug is making me look at the virtues of the UK as a travel destination, with new interest,
Like, Osea Island, who knew?
But also, in general. Mountains, rivers, history, mystery. Good food now. Good trains and buses. And they speak the English language (in most places). No bush fires or mosquitoes. Excellent oysters.
It's underrated.
Try the crab pasty from the crab shack in the under cliff.
And unfortunately for Boris Johnson this is just the sort of crisis when he looks like the total schmuck that most of us knew he was.
Tony Blair in this situation would have had gravitas.
In fact, Jeremy Hunt was the true statesman today.
Surely appointing Jeremy Hunt virus supremo is going to be the first order of business for Cobra on Monday morning? Anything else would be stupid. Matt Hancock may feel his nose a little out of joint but this is absolutely not just a health issue. What schools are to shut and when? What should border security be doing? What businesses are going to get support? What sporting events can go ahead, if any? So many different departments have roles to play here. The government needs to be seen to be on top of this if panic is to be avoided.
Quite agree.
Johnson's in for a rough ride in the newspapers this weekend I fancy.
I was highly critical of him on this forum earlier and indeed two days ago
He is getting away with it partly due to labour's idiotic leadership race going on until the 4th April and partly because he is Boris
He needs to step up to the plate on both the floods and covid 19 otherwise the narrative he is lazy or does not care will take hold
I am not impressed with him over this
I would normally take any opportunity to beat-up on Johnson's Prime Ministerial.failures.
However, to be absolutely honest in order to avoid being a hostage to fortune, keeping quiet is probably a wise move by Mr Johnson.
Yep but delaying COBRA until Monday is, as Tom Newton-Dunn (The Sun) said, a really poor optic for a concerned public.
Two months into an 80 majority 5 year term, who cares about optics?
It's 4 1/2 years!
Has the Septennial Act amended by the Parliament Act been restored then?
We have to consider the political implications of Corona Crisis from its economics. BREXIT CAN’T HAPPEN. We JUST CANNOT take on the economic and financial turmoil of the Brexit change in the middle of Corona Recession. Brexit has to be paused. And it will be paused. Start betting on it.
It already has happened. Wishful thinking doesn’t change that.
Sure, but maybe it gives Boris an excuse to extend the transition period?
I do not expect Boris to extend at all
Probably not. But if he did, it would give him all the cover he needed (along with the supplicant right wing press).
But why would he? He has no reason to.
So that Brexit transition and end state becomes a live issue again? So we get more time where Brexit is the only topic of conversation?
Frankly this corona issue also gives him all the cover he needs to do anything else. Announce we're leaving without a deal. Announce a deal. Whatever. People are more bothered about something else and will barely argue about Brexit deals anymore.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
In all honesty, this horrible bug is making me look at the virtues of the UK as a travel destination, with new interest,
Like, Osea Island, who knew?
But also, in general. Mountains, rivers, history, mystery. Good food now. Good trains and buses. And they speak the English language (in most places). No bush fires or mosquitoes. Excellent oysters.
It's underrated.
But no-one can come here until he world is clear of COVID-19, please.
Too many of my wonderful neighbours are over 80. The idea of them being wiped out en masse is pretty bloody painful.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
In all honesty, this horrible bug is making me look at the virtues of the UK as a travel destination, with new interest,
Like, Osea Island, who knew?
But also, in general. Mountains, rivers, history, mystery. Good food now. Good trains and buses. And they speak the English language (in most places). No bush fires or mosquitoes. Excellent oysters.
It's underrated.
Try the crab pasty from the crab shack in the under cliff.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
In all honesty, this horrible bug is making me look at the virtues of the UK as a travel destination, with new interest,
Like, Osea Island, who knew?
But also, in general. Mountains, rivers, history, mystery. Good food now. Good trains and buses. And they speak the English language (in most places). No bush fires or mosquitoes. Excellent oysters.
It's underrated.
Try the crab pasty from the crab shack in the under cliff.
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
In all honesty, this horrible bug is making me look at the virtues of the UK as a travel destination, with new interest,
Like, Osea Island, who knew?
But also, in general. Mountains, rivers, history, mystery. Good food now. Good trains and buses. And they speak the English language (in most places). No bush fires or mosquitoes. Excellent oysters.
It's underrated.
Try the crab pasty from the crab shack in the under cliff.
And unfortunately for Boris Johnson this is just the sort of crisis when he looks like the total schmuck that most of us knew he was.
Tony Blair in this situation would have had gravitas.
In fact, Jeremy Hunt was the true statesman today.
Surely appointing Jeremy Hunt virus supremo is going to be the first order of business for Cobra on Monday morning? Anything else would be stupid. Matt Hancock may feel his nose a little out of joint but this is absolutely not just a health issue. What schools are to shut and when? What should border security be doing? What businesses are going to get support? What sporting events can go ahead, if any? So many different departments have roles to play here. The government needs to be seen to be on top of this if panic is to be avoided.
Quite agree.
Johnson's in for a rough ride in the newspapers this weekend I fancy.
I was highly critical of him on this forum earlier and indeed two days ago
He is getting away with it partly due to labour's idiotic leadership race going on until the 4th April and partly because he is Boris
He needs to step up to the plate on both the floods and covid 19 otherwise the narrative he is lazy or does not care will take hold
I am not impressed with him over this
I would normally take any opportunity to beat-up on Johnson's Prime Ministerial.failures.
However, to be absolutely honest in order to avoid being a hostage to fortune, keeping quiet is probably a wise move by Mr Johnson.
Yep but delaying COBRA until Monday is, as Tom Newton-Dunn (The Sun) said, a really poor optic for a concerned public.
Two months into an 80 majority 5 year term, who cares about optics?
It's 4 1/2 years!
Has the Septennial Act amended by the Parliament Act been restored then?
And unfortunately for Boris Johnson this is just the sort of crisis when he looks like the total schmuck that most of us knew he was.
Tony Blair in this situation would have had gravitas.
In fact, Jeremy Hunt was the true statesman today.
Surely appointing Jeremy Hunt virus supremo is going to be the first order of business for Cobra on Monday morning? Anything else would be stupid. Matt Hancock may feel his nose a little out of joint but this is absolutely not just a health issue. What schools are to shut and when? What should border security be doing? What businesses are going to get support? What sporting events can go ahead, if any? So many different departments have roles to play here. The government needs to be seen to be on top of this if panic is to be avoided.
Quite agree.
Johnson's in for a rough ride in the newspapers this weekend I fancy.
I was highly critical of him on this forum earlier and indeed two days ago
He is getting away with it partly due to labour's idiotic leadership race going on until the 4th April and partly because he is Boris
He needs to step up to the plate on both the floods and covid 19 otherwise the narrative he is lazy or does not care will take hold
I am not impressed with him over this
I would normally take any opportunity to beat-up on Johnson's Prime Ministerial.failures.
However, to be absolutely honest in order to avoid being a hostage to fortune, keeping quiet is probably a wise move by Mr Johnson.
Yep but delaying COBRA until Monday is, as Tom Newton-Dunn (The Sun) said, a really poor optic for a concerned public.
Two months into an 80 majority 5 year term, who cares about optics?
It's 4 1/2 years!
Has the Septennial Act amended by the Parliament Act been restored then?
No. If it had we'd have a five year term, it hasn't so its 4 1/2
That is a shame because the cruises we have been on do not fit your description though we have paid from £3,500 for us both to cruise to the Canaries and £20,000 for our expedition cruise to Antartica
Strangers telling you they paid £20,000 for something is exactly the sort of thing I'd expect to find on a cruise ship.
And unfortunately for Boris Johnson this is just the sort of crisis when he looks like the total schmuck that most of us knew he was.
Tony Blair in this situation would have had gravitas.
In fact, Jeremy Hunt was the true statesman today.
Surely appointing Jeremy Hunt virus supremo is going to be the first order of business for Cobra on Monday morning? Anything else would be stupid. Matt Hancock may feel his nose a little out of joint but this is absolutely not just a health issue. What schools are to shut and when? What should border security be doing? What businesses are going to get support? What sporting events can go ahead, if any? So many different departments have roles to play here. The government needs to be seen to be on top of this if panic is to be avoided.
Quite agree.
Johnson's in for a rough ride in the newspapers this weekend I fancy.
I was highly critical of him on this forum earlier and indeed two days ago
He is getting away with it partly due to labour's idiotic leadership race going on until the 4th April and partly because he is Boris
He needs to step up to the plate on both the floods and covid 19 otherwise the narrative he is lazy or does not care will take hold
I am not impressed with him over this
I would normally take any opportunity to beat-up on Johnson's Prime Ministerial.failures.
However, to be absolutely honest in order to avoid being a hostage to fortune, keeping quiet is probably a wise move by Mr Johnson.
Yep but delaying COBRA until Monday is, as Tom Newton-Dunn (The Sun) said, a really poor optic for a concerned public.
Two months into an 80 majority 5 year term, who cares about optics?
It's 4 1/2 years!
Has the Septennial Act amended by the Parliament Act been restored then?
Thanks @rottenborough for the below last night about seasonality being a factor, but possibly not a strong enough one for a virus to which there is no immunity in the population.
The one thing I'd say is that, when you dig down the link under the words 'common for flu pandemics', which is billed as a supporting paper for non seasonality, actually shows charts for a number of pandemic outbreaks that are very substantially seasonal (one Mar-Jun spike in London, one summer outbreak struggling to get off the ground in Copenhagen, and 8 classic seasonal spikes across 4 pandemics). All is not lost yet.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Why would that happen to Boris, who hasn't spent four years dismantling the country's pandemic response unit? This is a really easy gig for a PM because people tend to rally to the government in times of crisis, because it isn't the government's fault, and because the big questions aren't political they are medical. There are dangers like the NHS imploding in a way for which the government can be blamed, but there are opportunities too. Had you considered that coronavirus might turn out to be Boris's Falklands?
Though now you mention it, we have been cutting Public Health for years.
That is a shame because the cruises we have been on do not fit your description though we have paid from £3,500 for us both to cruise to the Canaries and £20,000 for our expedition cruise to Antartica
Strangers telling you they paid £20,000 for something is exactly the sort of thing I'd expect to find on a cruise ship.
Not sure your point. We paid £20,000 for our retirement expedition cruise to Antartica. I have never heard anyone on a cruise discuss how much they paid
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It's also looking good for Germany, after an initial shock companies will have to purchase capital goods in massive amounts to ramp up production in non-Chinese locations. Japan, the UK and US will also benefit from this, Japan specifically will do better than expected as a lot of semi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
In all honesty, this horrible bug is making me look at the virtues of the UK as a travel destination, with new interest,
Like, Osea Island, who knew?
It's underrated.
Try the crab pasty from the crab shack in the under cliff.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Why would that happen to Boris, who hasn't spent four years dismantling the country's pandemic response unit? This is a really easy gig for a PM because people tend to rally to the government in times of crisis, because it isn't the government's fault, and because the big questions aren't political they are medical. There are dangers like the NHS imploding in a way for which the government can be blamed, but there are opportunities too. Had you considered that coronavirus might turn out to be Boris's Falklands?
Tonight on Channel 4 news there was no one available from the government or from Public Health England to answer questions about the crisis. No one. This is not leadership. This is arrogance, incompetence and cowardice.
I agree this could be Boris's Falklands but he has to start leading. Same over the floods. So far he has been pathetic and woeful. And true to known character. I would be happy to be proven wrong and for him to rise to the occasion. Cometh the hour etc ..
What more do you want him to do?
We've got quarantine isolation areas in the Wirral and elsewhere. We've got isolation ICUs for anyone effected We've got information being communicated. We've got 111 set up to take calls for anyone at risk. We've conducted thousands and thousands of tests.
Do you want him to be gladhanding nurses? Will that make this better? We don't need photo ops, we need the job to be done well.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Why would that happen to Boris, who hasn't spent four years dismantling the country's pandemic response unit? This is a really easy gig for a PM because people tend to rally to the government in times of crisis, because it isn't the government's fault, and because the big questions aren't political they are medical. There are dangers like the NHS imploding in a way for which the government can be blamed, but there are opportunities too. Had you considered that coronavirus might turn out to be Boris's Falklands?
Tonight on Channel 4 news there was no one available from the government or from Public Health England to answer questions about the crisis. No one. This is not leadership. This is arrogance, incompetence and cowardice.
I agree this could be Boris's Falklands but he has to start leading. Same over the floods. So far he has been pathetic and woeful. And true to known character. I would be happy to be proven wrong and for him to rise to the occasion. Cometh the hour etc ..
What more do you want him to do?
We've got quarantine isolation areas in the Wirral and elsewhere. We've got isolation ICUs for anyone effected We've got information being communicated. We've got 111 set up to take calls for anyone at risk. We've conducted thousands and thousands of tests.
Do you want him to be gladhanding nurses? Will that make this better? We don't need photo ops, we need the job to be done well.
Ending the ridiculous ban on Government Ministers from appearing on Radio 4 and 5Live would be a sensible start though.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Why would that happen to Boris, who hasn't spent four years dismantling the country's pandemic response unit? This is a really easy gig for a PM because people tend to rally to the government in times of crisis, because it isn't the government's fault, and because the big questions aren't political they are medical. There are dangers like the NHS imploding in a way for which the government can be blamed, but there are opportunities too. Had you considered that coronavirus might turn out to be Boris's Falklands?
Though now you mention it, we have been cutting Public Health for years.
Public Health (and capital equipment) budgets have been heavily raised by recent Chancellors as part of austerity.
Not, I think, in a way that hurts Boris personally- not like Theresa May having cut police funding as Home Secretary. Don't get me wrong, I don't want Boris to have a Falklands moment, but I don't see coronavirus as his Waterloo either.
That is a shame because the cruises we have been on do not fit your description though we have paid from £3,500 for us both to cruise to the Canaries and £20,000 for our expedition cruise to Antartica
Strangers telling you they paid £20,000 for something is exactly the sort of thing I'd expect to find on a cruise ship.
Not sure your point. We paid £20,000 for our retirement expedition cruise to Antartica. I have never heard anyone on a cruise discuss how much they paid
Not least because often people have paid vastly different prices for the same cruise!
We're at the pub debating the effect this virus will have on the global economy. So far it's not looking good for China, we think big international companies will diversify supply chains away from China and it's going to cause a long term slowdown in growth for them to normal 2-4% per year like western economies.
It'smi-manufactured goods production is expected to be onshored and automated.
This is also going to change the nature of global travel, some people think that airports will introduce body temperature scanners as standard in addition to the normal security checks. Any passenger out of the ordinary will need to be tested for infectious diseases before they can board.
I've been saying this for a few days now.
I think the economic issues will be pretty much everywhere. In a years time it will all be over.
There may well be lasting damage to the tourist boom in flying, hotels and cruising for a few more years though.
The cruise industry is dead. Most of these floating palaces will become stationary hotels.
Cunard today put out a bulletin cancelling most of its scheduled spring port calls; it appears its ships will mostly be circumnavigating Australia for the next couple of months
Still a Petri dish after long flights through infected airports. Just not good to happen.
There are going to be a lot of staycation this year.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
In all honesty, this horrible bug is making me look at the virtues of the UK as a travel destination, with new interest,
Like, Osea Island, who knew?
It's underrated.
Try the crab pasty from the crab shack in the under cliff.
Brilliant. Tim Hayward is my favourite food writer. Consistently scintillating.
I shall go to the IoW and have the crab pasty!
Skip the Garlic Farm though...
Why? It’s a historic site. The original garlic was picked up during the war from the French resistance in one of those nighttime field landings you see in the movies, and flown back by Lysander, because the French troops of the Torpedo Boat Squadron stationed at Cowes were at their wits end with the bland English food.
That is a shame because the cruises we have been on do not fit your description though we have paid from £3,500 for us both to cruise to the Canaries and £20,000 for our expedition cruise to Antartica
Strangers telling you they paid £20,000 for something is exactly the sort of thing I'd expect to find on a cruise ship.
Not sure your point. We paid £20,000 for our retirement expedition cruise to Antartica. I have never heard anyone on a cruise discuss how much they paid
Not least because often people have paid vastly different prices for the same cruise!
The scary thing is this will probably be much about nothing in the end if governments and healthcare agencies take this seriously and do what needs to be done, as our government is doing.
By ignoring this they're going to let this go unnecessarily rampant and make this unnecessarily deadly. MORONS!
The poster child for that: https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-iran-became-a-new-epicenter-of-the-coronavirus-outbreak ... It was the political decision that led to this outbreak in Iran,” Alaei said. “It’s very unfortunate, as Iran has a very well-established infrastructure for the health system and well-educated doctors.” Alaei was imprisoned in 2008 for “communicating with the enemy,” running espionage rings, and trying to “launch a velvet revolution” against the government in Tehran. He spent thirty months in the notorious Evin Prison. He moved to the United States after his release....
Regular readers might have noticed that I'm not exactly the greatest fan of Boris and this government, but, really - so far at least, in respect of this crisis there is absolutely no reason to criticise either them, or the NHS, or PHE, or the Chief Medical Officer. The response so far has been exemplary: all the cases have been followed up rapidly and efficiently, the quarantine and isolation measures have been (as far as we know) spot-on, we seem to have been quicker and more efficient testing people than any other country, and those who have fallen ill have been properly treated: what on earth else can we expect? Admittedly I'd prefer Jeremy Hunt to be in charge if things get worse, but so far, what are people bitching about?
Not appearing on the Today programme to utter the usual reassurances and platitudes is a mistake, for sure, but it's a purely political mistake, not a mistake in any substantive sense in terms of actually managing the crisis.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
I don't see the connection between coronavirus and Boris/Trump.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Why would that happen to Boris, who hasn't spent four years dismantling the country's pandemic response unit? This is a really easy gig for a PM because people tend to rally to the government in times of crisis, because it isn't the government's fault, and because the big questions aren't political they are medical. There are dangers like the NHS imploding in a way for which the government can be blamed, but there are opportunities too. Had you considered that coronavirus might turn out to be Boris's Falklands?
Tonight on Channel 4 news there was no one available from the government or from Public Health England to answer questions about the crisis. No one. This is not leadership. This is arrogance, incompetence and cowardice.
I agree this could be Boris's Falklands but he has to start leading. Same over the floods. So far he has been pathetic and woeful. And true to known character. I would be happy to be proven wrong and for him to rise to the occasion. Cometh the hour etc ..
What more do you want him to do?
We've got quarantine isolation areas in the Wirral and elsewhere. We've got isolation ICUs for anyone effected We've got information being communicated. We've got 111 set up to take calls for anyone at risk. We've conducted thousands and thousands of tests.
Do you want him to be gladhanding nurses? Will that make this better? We don't need photo ops, we need the job to be done well.
Ending the ridiculous ban on Government Ministers from appearing on Radio 4 and 5Live would be a sensible start though.
What boycott of 5Live? Ministers are still appearing on 5Live.
Ministers and NHS spokesmen are on the media very regularly. Don't need to be on Today to get the job done.
Latest polls mixed but on the whole suggest Sanders pulling away - apparently well ahead in two polls in Texas, for instance, though SC still looks safe for Biden. Comparative races vs Trump (presumably of the same sample, so not random variation) seem to show a bias to the front-runners rather than moderates or leftists. Lots of don't knows for Klobouchar, apparently.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
I don't see the connection between coronavirus and Boris/Trump.
The link with Boris is harder to make. Trump's fake news tweets on the other hand may prove to be a hostage to fortune.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Why would that happen to Boris, who hasn't spent four years dismantling the country's pandemic response unit? This is a really easy gig for a PM because people tend to rally to the government in times of crisis, because it isn't the government's fault, and because the big questions aren't political they are medical. There are dangers like the NHS imploding in a way for which the government can be blamed, but there are opportunities too. Had you considered that coronavirus might turn out to be Boris's Falklands?
Tonight on Channel 4 news there was no one available from the government or from Public Health England to answer questions about the crisis. No one. This is not leadership. This is arrogance, incompetence and cowardice.
I agree this could be Boris's Falklands but he has to start leading. Same over the floods. So far he has been pathetic and woeful. And true to known character. I would be happy to be proven wrong and for him to rise to the occasion. Cometh the hour etc ..
What more do you want him to do?
We've got quarantine isolation areas in the Wirral and elsewhere. We've got isolation ICUs for anyone effected We've got information being communicated. We've got 111 set up to take calls for anyone at risk. We've conducted thousands and thousands of tests.
Do you want him to be gladhanding nurses? Will that make this better? We don't need photo ops, we need the job to be done well.
I want him to lead. We haven't got anywhere near adequate "information being communicated". George Osborne is right on this as someone linked to earlier.
"The British Government now needs to go onto a ‘war footing’ with the coronavirus: daily NHS press briefings, regular COBRA meetings chaired by the PM, Ministers on all major media shows. The public is fearful, wants information and needs to know their leaders have got a grip."
Latest polls mixed but on the whole suggest Sanders pulling away - apparently well ahead in two polls in Texas, for instance, though SC still looks safe for Biden. Comparative races vs Trump (presumably of the same sample, so not random variation) seem to show a bias to the front-runners rather than moderates or leftists. Lots of don't knows for Klobouchar, apparently.
Regular readers might have noticed that I'm not exactly the greatest fan of Boris and this government, but, really - so far at least, in respect of this crisis there is absolutely no reason to criticise either them, or the NHS, or PHE, or the Chief Medical Officer. The response so far has been exemplary: all the cases have been followed up rapidly and efficiently, the quarantine and isolation measures have been (as far as we know) spot-on, we seem to have been quicker and more efficient testing people than any other country, and those who have fallen ill have been properly treated: what on earth else can we expect? Admittedly I'd prefer Jeremy Hunt to be in charge if things get worse, but so far, what are people bitching about?
Not appearing on the Today programme to utter the usual reassurances and platitudes is a mistake, for sure, but it's a purely political mistake, not a mistake in any substantive sense in terms of actually managing the crisis.
For once the government has need of experts. Hopefully not for the last time.
We can handle an epidemic of current Italian size, perhaps even ROK. If it got bigger than that it would all get rather rickety.
That is huge, in so many ways. For the Italian economy, for airline companies, and for perceptions of Italy, Europe and travel.
International tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world. If it basically ENDS, for a year or more, then we are all staring at a deep recession. I think. Or worse.
US airlines have already curtailed flights to Italy
Regular readers might have noticed that I'm not exactly the greatest fan of Boris and this government, but, really - so far at least, in respect of this crisis there is absolutely no reason to criticise either them, or the NHS, or PHE, or the Chief Medical Officer. The response so far has been exemplary: all the cases have been followed up rapidly and efficiently, the quarantine and isolation measures have been (as far as we know) spot-on, we seem to have been quicker and more efficient testing people than any other country, and those who have fallen ill have been properly treated: what on earth else can we expect? Admittedly I'd prefer Jeremy Hunt to be in charge if things get worse, but so far, what are people bitching about?
Not appearing on the Today programme to utter the usual reassurances and platitudes is a mistake, for sure, but it's a purely political mistake, not a mistake in any substantive sense in terms of actually managing the crisis.
Regular readers might have noticed that I'm not exactly the greatest fan of Boris and this government, but, really - so far at least, in respect of this crisis there is absolutely no reason to criticise either them, or the NHS, or PHE, or the Chief Medical Officer. The response so far has been exemplary: all the cases have been followed up rapidly and efficiently, the quarantine and isolation measures have been (as far as we know) spot-on, we seem to have been quicker and more efficient testing people than any other country, and those who have fallen ill have been properly treated: what on earth else can we expect? Admittedly I'd prefer Jeremy Hunt to be in charge if things get worse, but so far, what are people bitching about?
Not appearing on the Today programme to utter the usual reassurances and platitudes is a mistake, for sure, but it's a purely political mistake, not a mistake in any substantive sense in terms of actually managing the crisis.
For once the government has need of experts. Hopefully not for the last time.
We can handle an epidemic of current Italian size, perhaps even ROK. If it got bigger than that it would all get rather rickety.
Yes, at the moment the experts can and should be left to handle it, which they are doing. If and when things get a lot worse, there will be difficult decisions to be made, and that is where you need the politicians to take control and responsibility, on expert advice.
The scary thing is this will probably be much about nothing in the end if governments and healthcare agencies take this seriously and do what needs to be done, as our government is doing.
By ignoring this they're going to let this go unnecessarily rampant and make this unnecessarily deadly. MORONS!
The poster child for that: https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-iran-became-a-new-epicenter-of-the-coronavirus-outbreak ... It was the political decision that led to this outbreak in Iran,” Alaei said. “It’s very unfortunate, as Iran has a very well-established infrastructure for the health system and well-educated doctors.” Alaei was imprisoned in 2008 for “communicating with the enemy,” running espionage rings, and trying to “launch a velvet revolution” against the government in Tehran. He spent thirty months in the notorious Evin Prison. He moved to the United States after his release....
Meanwhile, while Trump is being a twat:
Officials in Northern California report a second case of coronavirus in a person without known risk factors, raising the possibility of local transmission. (NYT)
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
I don't see the connection between coronavirus and Boris/Trump.
The link with Boris is harder to make. Trump's fake news tweets on the other hand may prove to be a hostage to fortune.
As long as Fox News doesn't report it, Trump has nothing to worry about.
That is huge, in so many ways. For the Italian economy, for airline companies, and for perceptions of Italy, Europe and travel.
International tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world. If it basically ENDS, for a year or more, then we are all staring at a deep recession. I think. Or worse.
US airlines have already curtailed flights to Italy
The Italian economy is already shaky, this will send it into severe recession.
What will that do to the eurozone?
Fuck. I am not trying to be pessimistic, but almost every outcome of this is BAD. I would love it if a PB-er could find grounds for optimism.
Delta is waiving change fees for flights to Europe also
That is huge, in so many ways. For the Italian economy, for airline companies, and for perceptions of Italy, Europe and travel.
International tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world. If it basically ENDS, for a year or more, then we are all staring at a deep recession. I think. Or worse.
Increasingly we are in a consumer culture of experiences rather than things. We really may well have passed "Peak Stuff". People now want the consumption of experience, of cruises, travel, weekend breaks, sporting events, music festivals, hotels and restaurants. All of those are going to have a very difficult year.
Possibly better for the planet, and also for our savings ratio, but quite an economic shock.
That is huge, in so many ways. For the Italian economy, for airline companies, and for perceptions of Italy, Europe and travel.
International tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world. If it basically ENDS, for a year or more, then we are all staring at a deep recession. I think. Or worse.
That depends on whether international tourism is a net earner or net expenditure for individual countries.
With the UK having a tourism deficit of over £20bn a reduction in international tourism will help the UK economy as people will continue to spend but to a greater proportion in their own countries.
In particular it will be a boost to deprived coastal communities and the low paid workers therein.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Why would that happen to Boris, who hasn't spent four years dismantling the country's pandemic response unit? This is a really easy gig for a PM because people tend to rally to the government in times of crisis, because it isn't the government's fault, and because the big questions aren't political they are medical. There are dangers like the NHS imploding in a way for which the government can be blamed, but there are opportunities too. Had you considered that coronavirus might turn out to be Boris's Falklands?
Tonight on Channel 4 news there was no one available from the government or from Public Health England to answer questions about the crisis. No one. This is not leadership. This is arrogance, incompetence and cowardice.
I agree this could be Boris's Falklands but he has to start leading. Same over the floods. So far he has been pathetic and woeful. And true to known character. I would be happy to be proven wrong and for him to rise to the occasion. Cometh the hour etc ..
What more do you want him to do?
We've got quarantine isolation areas in the Wirral and elsewhere. We've got isolation ICUs for anyone effected We've got information being communicated. We've got 111 set up to take calls for anyone at risk. We've conducted thousands and thousands of tests.
Do you want him to be gladhanding nurses? Will that make this better? We don't need photo ops, we need the job to be done well.
I want him to lead. We haven't got anywhere near adequate "information being communicated". George Osborne is right on this as someone linked to earlier.
"The British Government now needs to go onto a ‘war footing’ with the coronavirus: daily NHS press briefings, regular COBRA meetings chaired by the PM, Ministers on all major media shows. The public is fearful, wants information and needs to know their leaders have got a grip."
Bollocks, with respect. Yes, the shit is going to hit the fan but No, it is not going to do so before Cobra meets on Monday. Your complaint is that the PM is not a proper showboating narcissist.
What do PBers think the chances are of the nominee being either Sanders or Biden?
I think it's looking more and more like Sanders or Bloomberg. SC notwithstanding, I think Biden's toast. He has no money left and has spent hardly anything on Super Tuesday advertising.
Like everyone else here, I really hope that the coronavirus crisis plays out better than we currently fear.
But if it doesn't, one positive outcome that I hope for is this. That the electorate finally identifies the two lying charlatans, Boris and Trump, as the shallow, duplicitous "fake news" naked Emperors that they evidently are and ejects them from office.
Why would that happen to Boris, who hasn't spent four years dismantling the country's pandemic response unit? This is a really easy gig for a PM because people tend to rally to the government in times of crisis, because it isn't the government's fault, and because the big questions aren't political they are medical. There are dangers like the NHS imploding in a way for which the government can be blamed, but there are opportunities too. Had you considered that coronavirus might turn out to be Boris's Falklands?
Tonight on Channel 4 news there was no one available from the government or from Public Health England to answer questions about the crisis. No one. This is not leadership. This is arrogance, incompetence and cowardice.
I agree this could be Boris's Falklands but he has to start leading. Same over the floods. So far he has been pathetic and woeful. And true to known character. I would be happy to be proven wrong and for him to rise to the occasion. Cometh the hour etc ..
What more do you want him to do?
We've got quarantine isolation areas in the Wirral and elsewhere. We've got isolation ICUs for anyone effected We've got information being communicated. We've got 111 set up to take calls for anyone at risk. We've conducted thousands and thousands of tests.
Do you want him to be gladhanding nurses? Will that make this better? We don't need photo ops, we need the job to be done well.
I want him to lead. We haven't got anywhere near adequate "information being communicated". George Osborne is right on this as someone linked to earlier.
"The British Government now needs to go onto a ‘war footing’ with the coronavirus: daily NHS press briefings, regular COBRA meetings chaired by the PM, Ministers on all major media shows. The public is fearful, wants information and needs to know their leaders have got a grip."
He is leading. He's doing what needs to be done. The NHS is giving routine briefings, the government is I'm sure having regular meetings. An extra minister speaking on Today won't make the damnedest bit of difference.
Yep but delaying COBRA until Monday is, as Tom Newton-Dunn (The Sun) said, a really poor optic for a concerned public.
But how concerned is the public at the moment? We obsess about it here and the press are full of it, but I suspect most people don't count it as a serious risk unless someone they know catches it. People at work aren't talking about it, events in London are happening with nobody suggesting they should be postponed, etc. I think the average reaction is "This sounds a bit worrying, I hope it blows over" - no more than that at the moment.
Similarly, I expect Johnson is getting credit for sounding concerned and summoning COBRA - people won't follow the details of what day etc. Corbyn's "part-time PM" remark has had some traction, but at present Johnson is still having an easy ride.
On topic there is absolutely no way a brokered convention beats Trump. If Bernie should get it, Bernie denied it, Trump wins. Bernie supporters won’t vote for the stitch up nominee. So you have to ask what is the true motive of democrats who travel that way? Trump less of a problem to them than liberal left.
Normally I would agree with you, but I think coronavirus throws everything up in the air.
"Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton. Not going to happen, we’ve moved on from the 1952 Democrat convention – they are much wider affairs now. Delegate horse trading would be between existing candidates."
Except... I cannot see the point of horse trading between existing candidates who those same delegates KNOW will lose to Trump. And neither will they.
Imagine if the Democrats could instead hold out the prospect of an Obama back in the White House....
I don't think you realise how vulnerable Trump is on healthcare. It's his achilles heel. And this attempt to downplay the virus and call it a hoax and the common cold and the like could backfire horribly if people start getting sick.
(You also have the problem, of course, that if it's a hoax, you can't cancel your rallies...)
People don't change their minds easily. Trump's fans love him. But if they start getting sick, and Trump is seen to be a part of the cause, then it really could be tickets for him. Being on death's door (or having a loved one on death's door, and being in fear...), that changes your perspective.
Even Sanders could win. (And I never thought I'd say that.)
What do PBers think the chances are of the nominee being either Sanders or Biden?
I think it's looking more and more like Sanders or Bloomberg. SC notwithstanding, I think Biden's toast. He has no money left and has spent hardly anything on Super Tuesday advertising.
I'm tending towards the view that Biden is about to make a come back.
That is huge, in so many ways. For the Italian economy, for airline companies, and for perceptions of Italy, Europe and travel.
International tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world. If it basically ENDS, for a year or more, then we are all staring at a deep recession. I think. Or worse.
US airlines have already curtailed flights to Italy
The Italian economy is already shaky, this will send it into severe recession.
What will that do to the eurozone?
Fuck. I am not trying to be pessimistic, but almost every outcome of this is BAD. I would love it if a PB-er could find grounds for optimism.
Several Wall St types have already said that the virus will curtail growth for the first half of 2020.
Regular readers might have noticed that I'm not exactly the greatest fan of Boris and this government, but, really - so far at least, in respect of this crisis there is absolutely no reason to criticise either them, or the NHS, or PHE, or the Chief Medical Officer. The response so far has been exemplary: all the cases have been followed up rapidly and efficiently, the quarantine and isolation measures have been (as far as we know) spot-on, we seem to have been quicker and more efficient testing people than any other country, and those who have fallen ill have been properly treated: what on earth else can we expect? Admittedly I'd prefer Jeremy Hunt to be in charge if things get worse, but so far, what are people bitching about?
Not appearing on the Today programme to utter the usual reassurances and platitudes is a mistake, for sure, but it's a purely political mistake, not a mistake in any substantive sense in terms of actually managing the crisis.
For once the government has need of experts. Hopefully not for the last time.
We can handle an epidemic of current Italian size, perhaps even ROK. If it got bigger than that it would all get rather rickety.
Yes, at the moment the experts can and should be left to handle it, which they are doing. If and when things get a lot worse, there will be difficult decisions to be made, and that is where you need the politicians to take control and responsibility, on expert advice.
The decision to send the nation into deep quarantine - closing schools, shuttering sports - needs to be taken in the next week or two. To be frank. That's going by the few successful struggles we see to date: in Singapore and HK etc
For the British people to accept these immense restrictions, they need to be told the truth by a candid prime minister. I see no attempt at this from Boris. He's still modestly bumbling,
On Monday morning he needs to adjust his oratorical cummerbund and square with the nation.
He will only do this if his medical advisors tell him to.
No idea whether they will, but seems unlikely at this point.
That is huge, in so many ways. For the Italian economy, for airline companies, and for perceptions of Italy, Europe and travel.
International tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world. If it basically ENDS, for a year or more, then we are all staring at a deep recession. I think. Or worse.
US airlines have already curtailed flights to Italy
The Italian economy is already shaky, this will send it into severe recession.
What will that do to the eurozone?
Fuck. I am not trying to be pessimistic, but almost every outcome of this is BAD. I would love it if a PB-er could find grounds for optimism.
The world gets to find out what would happen if we actually implemented what XR and Greta Thunberg are proposing?
Regular readers might have noticed that I'm not exactly the greatest fan of Boris and this government, but, really - so far at least, in respect of this crisis there is absolutely no reason to criticise either them, or the NHS, or PHE, or the Chief Medical Officer. The response so far has been exemplary: all the cases have been followed up rapidly and efficiently, the quarantine and isolation measures have been (as far as we know) spot-on, we seem to have been quicker and more efficient testing people than any other country, and those who have fallen ill have been properly treated: what on earth else can we expect? Admittedly I'd prefer Jeremy Hunt to be in charge if things get worse, but so far, what are people bitching about?
Not appearing on the Today programme to utter the usual reassurances and platitudes is a mistake, for sure, but it's a purely political mistake, not a mistake in any substantive sense in terms of actually managing the crisis.
For once the government has need of experts. Hopefully not for the last time.
We can handle an epidemic of current Italian size, perhaps even ROK. If it got bigger than that it would all get rather rickety.
Yes, at the moment the experts can and should be left to handle it, which they are doing. If and when things get a lot worse, there will be difficult decisions to be made, and that is where you need the politicians to take control and responsibility, on expert advice.
The decision to send the nation into deep quarantine - closing schools, shuttering sports - needs to be taken in the next week or two. To be frank. That's going by the few successful struggles we see to date: in Singapore and HK etc
For the British people to accept these immense restrictions, they need to be told the truth by a candid prime minister. I see no attempt at this from Boris. He's still modestly bumbling,
On Monday morning he needs to adjust his oratorical cummerbund and square with the nation.
He will only do this if his medical advisors tell him to.
No idea whether they will, but seems unlikely at this point.
Extremely unlikely. The WHO aren't advising that, why would he act like a headless chicken and act like that. This is just the hysteriamongers trying to ramp it up another notch.
What do PBers think the chances are of the nominee being either Sanders or Biden?
I think it's looking more and more like Sanders or Bloomberg. SC notwithstanding, I think Biden's toast. He has no money left and has spent hardly anything on Super Tuesday advertising.
I'm tending towards the view that Biden is about to make a come back.
But DYOR.
Never say never, but we'll know more after Tuesday.
Regular readers might have noticed that I'm not exactly the greatest fan of Boris and this government, but, really - so far at least, in respect of this crisis there is absolutely no reason to criticise either them, or the NHS, or PHE, or the Chief Medical Officer. The response so far has been exemplary: all the cases have been followed up rapidly and efficiently, the quarantine and isolation measures have been (as far as we know) spot-on, we seem to have been quicker and more efficient testing people than any other country, and those who have fallen ill have been properly treated: what on earth else can we expect? Admittedly I'd prefer Jeremy Hunt to be in charge if things get worse, but so far, what are people bitching about?
Not appearing on the Today programme to utter the usual reassurances and platitudes is a mistake, for sure, but it's a purely political mistake, not a mistake in any substantive sense in terms of actually managing the crisis.
For once the government has need of experts. Hopefully not for the last time.
We can handle an epidemic of current Italian size, perhaps even ROK. If it got bigger than that it would all get rather rickety.
Yes, at the moment the experts can and should be left to handle it, which they are doing. If and when things get a lot worse, there will be difficult decisions to be made, and that is where you need the politicians to take control and responsibility, on expert advice.
The decision to send the nation into deep quarantine - closing schools, shuttering sports - needs to be taken in the next week or two. To be frank. That's going by the few successful struggles we see to date: in Singapore and HK etc
For the British people to accept these immense restrictions, they need to be told the truth by a candid prime minister. I see no attempt at this from Boris. He's still modestly bumbling,
On Monday morning he needs to adjust his oratorical cummerbund and square with the nation.
What does this deep quarantine entail, how long does it last, how is it enforced etc ?
And what happens after the deep quarantine is over if the situation is no better ?
Comments
One can only imagine the anger in certain parts of Manchester if their derby rivals get "their" spot.
In the US it's full denial time. And as I post this a second case of community transmission has apparently been found in a different part of California.
All complex issues for politicians to deal with
I'll be honest: the biggest reason I don't want to go on cruises preceded the virus.
I don't want to pay a lot of money to be around fat gluttonous people who drink too much, have nothing of interest to say and don't know how to behave.
Age makes no difference. I've encountered some shocking behaviour amongst retirees as bad as any lager louts.
At least it has a bit of class and style.
I'd be still be terrified of getting stuck with or near some nightmare people though.
People are bandying around OTT words like "plague" or "pandemic" but while this has potential it isn't either yet. If this ends with no or negligible amounts of deaths in the UK then it could reasonably at the end of this be looked back on as a bullet missed and a job well done.
Not that I expect anyone here to give the government credit for a job well done. The NHS staff may get some credit.
We might even win the Mickey Mouse cup and qualify that way.
Can I mention the Isle of Wight? Book on the Redfunnel, and go Signature Lounge for a level of sybaritic ecstasy that would make SeanT, late of this board, drool....
If it was a few hundred quid for a couple of days I'd take the chance.
If it's very many thousands (and sometimes tens of thousands) for several weeks then I won't.
Night night all.
I agree this could be Boris's Falklands but he has to start leading. Same over the floods. So far he has been pathetic and woeful. And true to known character. I would be happy to be proven wrong and for him to rise to the occasion. Cometh the hour etc ..
https://www.ft.com/content/4084cfd4-8f9a-11e8-b639-7680cedcc421
So that Brexit transition and end state becomes a live issue again? So we get more time where Brexit is the only topic of conversation?
Frankly this corona issue also gives him all the cover he needs to do anything else. Announce we're leaving without a deal. Announce a deal. Whatever. People are more bothered about something else and will barely argue about Brexit deals anymore.
Too many of my wonderful neighbours are over 80. The idea of them being wiped out en masse is pretty bloody painful.
"...the next general election is due to take place on Thursday 2 May 2024, unless it is triggered earlier."
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/
The one thing I'd say is that, when you dig down the link under the words 'common for flu pandemics', which is billed as a supporting paper for non seasonality, actually shows charts for a number of pandemic outbreaks that are very substantially seasonal (one Mar-Jun spike in London, one summer outbreak struggling to get off the ground in Copenhagen, and 8 classic seasonal spikes across 4 pandemics). All is not lost yet.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/nhs-in-a-nutshell/spending-public-health
Public Health (and capital equipment) budgets have been heavily raised by recent Chancellors as part of austerity.
We've got quarantine isolation areas in the Wirral and elsewhere.
We've got isolation ICUs for anyone effected
We've got information being communicated.
We've got 111 set up to take calls for anyone at risk.
We've conducted thousands and thousands of tests.
Do you want him to be gladhanding nurses? Will that make this better?
We don't need photo ops, we need the job to be done well.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-iran-became-a-new-epicenter-of-the-coronavirus-outbreak
... It was the political decision that led to this outbreak in Iran,” Alaei said. “It’s very unfortunate, as Iran has a very well-established infrastructure for the health system and well-educated doctors.” Alaei was imprisoned in 2008 for “communicating with the enemy,” running espionage rings, and trying to “launch a velvet revolution” against the government in Tehran. He spent thirty months in the notorious Evin Prison. He moved to the United States after his release....
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/iran/qom/historic
Had been in the low 20s in the last week, so getting very springlike there.
Of course I'm tracking temperatures at all outbreak locations, I'm getting just a wee bit fixated here.
Very low rainfall location however, so don't know if the rising temperature is porting much water into the atmosphere.
Not appearing on the Today programme to utter the usual reassurances and platitudes is a mistake, for sure, but it's a purely political mistake, not a mistake in any substantive sense in terms of actually managing the crisis.
Ministers and NHS spokesmen are on the media very regularly. Don't need to be on Today to get the job done.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
"The British Government now needs to go onto a ‘war footing’ with the coronavirus: daily NHS press briefings, regular COBRA meetings chaired by the PM, Ministers on all major media shows. The public is fearful, wants information and needs to know their leaders have got a grip."
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/02/27/texas_looms_large_as_super_tuesday_bonanza_for_democrats_142509.html?utm_campaign=ora_player&utm_medium=ora-video-widget&utm_source=polls
Looks like the Iranian authorities have actually chosen a hot place for quarantine.
Dem primary voters have lost the plot.
We can handle an epidemic of current Italian size, perhaps even ROK. If it got bigger than that it would all get rather rickety.
Officials in Northern California report a second case of coronavirus in a person without known risk factors, raising the possibility of local transmission. (NYT)
Possibly better for the planet, and also for our savings ratio, but quite an economic shock.
With the UK having a tourism deficit of over £20bn a reduction in international tourism will help the UK economy as people will continue to spend but to a greater proportion in their own countries.
In particular it will be a boost to deprived coastal communities and the low paid workers therein.
https://twitter.com/aliceTTimes/status/1233523920923484161
Chin up!
Similarly, I expect Johnson is getting credit for sounding concerned and summoning COBRA - people won't follow the details of what day etc. Corbyn's "part-time PM" remark has had some traction, but at present Johnson is still having an easy ride.
(You also have the problem, of course, that if it's a hoax, you can't cancel your rallies...)
People don't change their minds easily. Trump's fans love him. But if they start getting sick, and Trump is seen to be a part of the cause, then it really could be tickets for him. Being on death's door (or having a loved one on death's door, and being in fear...), that changes your perspective.
Even Sanders could win. (And I never thought I'd say that.)
But DYOR.
What are the odds that one or more of the front-runners comes down with coronavirus between now and then?
No idea whether they will, but seems unlikely at this point.
And what happens after the deep quarantine is over if the situation is no better ?