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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can anyone stop Sanders – looking at the contenders one by one

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  • The Political Declaration made clear that we were leaving the EU and will be setting our own laws.

    The EU wish to rewrite parts of that to keep us attached.

    Oh and the PD is non-binding. We discussed that a lot last year don't forget.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was as promised in the manifesto and ratified after the election, so in no conceivable way does the decisive electoral win justify reneging on it: quite the opposite, it should make it unthinkable to do so.

    Of course, you are right that it is non-binding. That simply means that the EU (and other countries) will rightly conclude that they can't trust anything this government says, or even formally signs up to, unless they've got a cast-iron legal deal enforceable by penalties. It's the most disastrous way of beginning negotiation Boris could have managed,
    To be honest, and fair, both sides are playing fast and lose with the PD

    This is not one sided
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    IanB2 said:

    Still, at least here things are under control and so there's no reason to panic:

    https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1233450841895514112

    You already can’t order sanitiser at a sensible price, or at all from the major supermarkets. If this hits London in a big way, the panic will be a sight to behold. At least the rest of the country can feed itself.
    Can it? (No, that is not a pun, it is an expression of doubt.)

  • The Political Declaration made clear that we were leaving the EU and will be setting our own laws.

    The EU wish to rewrite parts of that to keep us attached.

    Oh and the PD is non-binding. We discussed that a lot last year don't forget.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was as promised in the manifesto and ratified after the election, so in no conceivable way does the decisive electoral win justify reneging on it: quite the opposite, it should make it unthinkable to do so.

    Of course, you are right that it is non-binding. That simply means that the EU (and other countries) will rightly conclude that they can't trust anything this government says, or even formally signs up to, unless they've got a cast-iron legal deal enforceable by penalties. It's the most disastrous way of beginning negotiation Boris could have managed,
    To be honest, and fair, both sides are playing fast and lose with the PD

    This is not one sided
    It's pretty one-sided. The EU is retrenching precisely because they have been worried at the signs that the UK is trying to wriggle out of the Withdrawal Agreement, and who can blame them for that?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424


    The Political Declaration made clear that we were leaving the EU and will be setting our own laws.

    The EU wish to rewrite parts of that to keep us attached.

    Oh and the PD is non-binding. We discussed that a lot last year don't forget.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was as promised in the manifesto and ratified after the election, so in no conceivable way does the decisive electoral win justify reneging on it: quite the opposite, it should make it unthinkable to do so.

    Of course, you are right that it is non-binding. That simply means that the EU (and other countries) will rightly conclude that they can't trust anything this government says, or even formally signs up to, unless they've got a cast-iron legal deal enforceable by penalties. It's the most disastrous way of beginning negotiation Boris could have managed,
    To be honest, and fair, both sides are playing fast and lose with the PD

    This is not one sided
    That’s amazing. Who would have thought that a team of negotiators led by on one side by a French former Minister of Agriculture and on the other side by Michael Gove might prove to be bunch of stuck up twisting incompetent bastards?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited February 2020
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I fear

    Read
    I know that's what it says! It's obvious this is a major problem. Cancer patients are dying in Hubei because all the beds are filled with covid.


    I recommend you read that lady's whole feed. Anyone who thinks China has this nailed down will find it sobering.
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I fear this is quite bad. Basic water supplies breaking down in Hubei

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233439135622455297?s=20

    The tweeter's entire feed is illuminating, and concerning. It does NOT look like China has this under control.

    eg:

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233406488032563200?s=20

    A CCP official makes a "secret" trip to Hubei and finds 400,000 severe and chronic non-corona patients going without treatment

    Reader and more multimorbid population than Hubei, that is something that would be of deep concern.

    I know that's what it. Anyone who thinks China has this nailed down will find it sobering.
    I think you deserve great credit for your ongoing information on covid 19 and while I reserve the right to be sceptical on some of your comments you do have amazing sources and, notwithstanding some adverse comments on here by other posters, you do make a a valued contribution to this very serious issue
    Thanks mate.

    I do try not to be sensationslist, but I also have a fair bit of spare time, at the mo, and this subject is sadly compelling, so I uncover a lot of info.

    And you can find so much on social media that isn't widely reported at all. eg The BBC news broadcasts from China are ludicrously anodyne. Of course they have to be, because China is ejecting journalists who are too critical, like the American trio from the WSJ.

    Dig a bit deeper and a different picture emerges. Which it is important to see.
    The problem isn’t your digging, it’s that you are digging looking for one type of information only and posting only the worst case projections that you find. There is plenty more level headed and less alarmist factual material out there, if you were willing to look for it.

    We don’t have many hard facts to cling to, right now. But I come back to that ski chalet that started the British and French outbreaks. A guy pitches up there from China, carrying the virus, unbeknownst to the rest of the party. They spend a whole week together in close confinement in ideal cold dry conditions for the virus to transmit. Yet most (just) of that party come away uninfected, and all of them are still alive.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    edited February 2020
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I fear this is quite bad. Basic water supplies breaking down in Hubei

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233439135622455297?s=20

    entire feed is illuminating, and concerning. It does NOT look like China has this under control.

    eg:

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233406488032563200?s=20

    ent

    Read it carefully. Patients with chronic conditions are not getting treatment because all the focus is on the virus.

    Exactly the same thing will happen here if we lose control of the virus.

    Given we probably have an older and more multimorbid population than Hubei, that is something that would be of deep concern.

    I know that's what it says! It's obvious this is a major problem. Cancer patients are dying in Hubei because all the beds are filled with covid.


    I recommend you read that lady's whole feed. Anyone who thinks China has this nailed down will find it sobering.
    They might or might not have covid nailed, we don't know yet. But like I said the other day, the risk is a system wide health care failure which raises the baseline mortality rate independent of covid.
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I fear this is quite bad. Basic water supplies breaking down in Hubei

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233439135622455297?s=20

    The tweeter's entire feed is illuminating, and concerning. It does NOT look like China has this under control.

    eg:

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233406488032563200?s=20

    A CCP official makes a "secret" trip to Hubei and finds 400,000 severe and chronic non-corona patients going without treatment

    Read it carefully. Patients with chronic conditions are not getting treatment because all the focus is on the virus.

    Exactly the same thing will happen here if we lose control of the virus.

    Given we probably have an older and more multimorbid population than Hubei, that is something that would be of deep concern.

    Still, at least here things are under control and so there's no reason to panic:

    https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1233450841895514112

    You already can’t order sanitiser at a sensible price, or at all from the major supermarkets. If this hits London in a big way, the panic will be a sight to behold. At least the rest of the country can feed itself.
    The wild west meets the plague.

    Riots for dettol and face masks. I jest but there might be a significant problem with maintaining law and order. Can't see that happening in South Korea or Singapore.

    Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    I am amazed to find that Eadric, er, SeanT and I were until this afternoon the only posters ever to use ‘suavity’ on PB.

  • The Political Declaration made clear that we were leaving the EU and will be setting our own laws.

    The EU wish to rewrite parts of that to keep us attached.

    Oh and the PD is non-binding. We discussed that a lot last year don't forget.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was as promised in the manifesto and ratified after the election, so in no conceivable way does the decisive electoral win justify reneging on it: quite the opposite, it should make it unthinkable to do so.

    Of course, you are right that it is non-binding. That simply means that the EU (and other countries) will rightly conclude that they can't trust anything this government says, or even formally signs up to, unless they've got a cast-iron legal deal enforceable by penalties. It's the most disastrous way of beginning negotiation Boris could have managed,
    To be honest, and fair, both sides are playing fast and lose with the PD

    This is not one sided
    It's pretty one-sided. The EU is retrenching precisely because they have been worried at the signs that the UK is trying to wriggle out of the Withdrawal Agreement, and who can blame them for that?
    But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

  • The Political Declaration made clear that we were leaving the EU and will be setting our own laws.

    The EU wish to rewrite parts of that to keep us attached.

    Oh and the PD is non-binding. We discussed that a lot last year don't forget.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was as promised in the manifesto and ratified after the election, so in no conceivable way does the decisive electoral win justify reneging on it: quite the opposite, it should make it unthinkable to do so.

    Of course, you are right that it is non-binding. That simply means that the EU (and other countries) will rightly conclude that they can't trust anything this government says, or even formally signs up to, unless they've got a cast-iron legal deal enforceable by penalties. It's the most disastrous way of beginning negotiation Boris could have managed,
    To be honest, and fair, both sides are playing fast and lose with the PD

    This is not one sided
    It's pretty one-sided. The EU is retrenching precisely because they have been worried at the signs that the UK is trying to wriggle out of the Withdrawal Agreement, and who can blame them for that?
    We're not wriggling out of the agreement, they are. The agreement specifically ruled out only one type of LPF being available.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Dropped a few quid on Gabbard. Under the assumption Sanders has got the nom.

    Thought of Gabbard becoming President makes me feel sick.
    Why?
    The LA Time puts it well with the headline

    Tulsi Gabbard may not be a Russian asset. But she sure talks like one

    It would actually be better if she was a full paid up asset of the Russian Intelligence service rather than she independently came to a set of views that is indistinguishable from the average Russian twitter troll.

    She has full on Stop the War derangement syndrome. Criticise American military intervention and loudly cheer on Putin bombing the shit out of people.
    Are people who support America bombing the shit out of people but criticise Russian military interventions similarly deranged?
    People like John Bolton? Yes.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Alistair said:

    Dropped a few quid on Gabbard. Under the assumption Sanders has got the nom.

    Thought of Gabbard becoming President makes me feel sick.
    Why?
    The LA Time puts it well with the headline

    Tulsi Gabbard may not be a Russian asset. But she sure talks like one

    It would actually be better if she was a full paid up asset of the Russian Intelligence service rather than she independently came to a set of views that is indistinguishable from the average Russian twitter troll.

    She has full on Stop the War derangement syndrome. Criticise American military intervention and loudly cheer on Putin bombing the shit out of people.
    Are people who support America bombing the shit out of people but criticise Russian military interventions similarly deranged?
    Right on cue.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836


    The Political Declaration made clear that we were leaving the EU and will be setting our own laws.

    The EU wish to rewrite parts of that to keep us attached.

    Oh and the PD is non-binding. We discussed that a lot last year don't forget.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was as promised in the manifesto and ratified after the election, so in no conceivable way does the decisive electoral win justify reneging on it: quite the opposite, it should make it unthinkable to do so.

    Of course, you are right that it is non-binding. That simply means that the EU (and other countries) will rightly conclude that they can't trust anything this government says, or even formally signs up to, unless they've got a cast-iron legal deal enforceable by penalties. It's the most disastrous way of beginning negotiation Boris could have managed,
    We didn't agree to a binding level playing field whereby we mirror EU rules in perpetuity. Nor did the PD rule out a Canadian style deal as the UK is too close to the EU despite the fact Barnier personally talked up a Canada deal in the past.

    In fact the PD EXPLICITLY links the strength of a trade agreement to the strength of a level playing field. So a Canadian-style LPF agreement in exchange for a Canadian-style trade agreement is an entirely reasonable request by the British government.

    If the EU wants to enforce an EU style LPF for any trade deal they are the ones breaking the PD, not us.
    Where does it say that in the PD?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still, at least here things are under control and so there's no reason to panic:

    https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1233450841895514112

    You already can’t order sanitiser at a sensible price, or at all from the major supermarkets. If this hits London in a big way, the panic will be a sight to behold. At least the rest of the country can feed itself.
    There's panic buying around the world.

    Mexico

    https://twitter.com/crespo_fer/status/1233459209133490179?s=20

    New Zealand!

    htts://twitter.com/mstevnz/status/1233459365807562754?s=20

    And, less surprisingly, America

    htps://twitter.com/MikeLoBurgio/status/1233452244084969475?s=20


    Also, Germany, Japan, Romania...
    Pleased with myself that I worked out cubreboca without help.

    It is increasingly dawning on me that this is really, really serious and that we are still in, though approaching the end of, the phoney war stage. Buy tins. Do not buy shares.

  • But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with

    The UK is playing fast and loose with the WA on the question of the checks for GB to NI trade.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Identity of @Dura_Ace revealed:

    https://tinyurl.com/yx3qn8a7

    Man called Astin Martin drove Ford Fiesta at 93mph in a 30 zone

    A dangerous driver has been taken to court after he took police on a 93mph chase in a 30mph zone. Ford Fiesta-driving Astin Martin O’Brien was already serving a ban and had no licence or insurance when he was spotted driving ‘incredibly dangerously’ around the streets of Ashington, Northumberland. After being stopped he refused to give a breath sample and officers soon learned that he had 31 convictions.


  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836


    But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with

    The UK is playing fast and loose with the WA on the question of the checks for GB to NI trade.
    It feels like this is merely for show. The UK government doesn't have a leg to stand on for GB -> NI trade, thought it could limit checks in the other direction.

  • But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with

    The UK is playing fast and loose with the WA on the question of the checks for GB to NI trade.


    But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with

    The UK is playing fast and loose with the WA on the question of the checks for GB to NI trade.
    Maybe the UK are looking after UK interests but of course they must comply with the WDA
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still, at least here things are under control and so there's no reason to panic:

    https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1233450841895514112

    You already can’t order sanitiser at a sensible price, or at all from the major supermarkets. If this hits London in a big way, the panic will be a sight to behold. At least the rest of the country can feed itself.
    There's panic buying around the world.

    Mexico

    https://twitter.com/crespo_fer/status/1233459209133490179?s=20

    New Zealand!

    htts://twitter.com/mstevnz/status/1233459365807562754?s=20

    And, less surprisingly, America

    htps://twitter.com/MikeLoBurgio/status/1233452244084969475?s=20


    Also, Germany, Japan, Romania...
    Pleased with myself that I worked out cubreboca without help.

    It is increasingly dawning on me that this is really, really serious and that we are still in, though approaching the end of, the phoney war stage. Buy tins. Do not buy shares.
    The shares in any company that makes hand sanitiser must be worth a punt?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited February 2020
    tlg86 said:

    Identity of @Dura_Ace revealed:

    https://tinyurl.com/yx3qn8a7

    Man called Astin Martin drove Ford Fiesta at 93mph in a 30 zone

    A dangerous driver has been taken to court after he took police on a 93mph chase in a 30mph zone. Ford Fiesta-driving Astin Martin O’Brien was already serving a ban and had no licence or insurance when he was spotted driving ‘incredibly dangerously’ around the streets of Ashington, Northumberland. After being stopped he refused to give a breath sample and officers soon learned that he had 31 convictions.


    Blimey. That’s a greater level of conviction than Jeremy Corbyn.

  • But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with

    The UK is playing fast and loose with the WA on the question of the checks for GB to NI trade.
    No. The PM was 100% clear on that during the election campaign - no checks.

    Europe ratified the deal AFTER the election campaign. Nothing has changed since then. The PM has been consistent before and after ratification, its not like it was bait and switch.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still, at least here things are under control and so there's no reason to panic:

    https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1233450841895514112

    You already can’t order sanitiser at a sensible price, or at all from the major supermarkets. If this hits London in a big way, the panic will be a sight to behold. At least the rest of the country can feed itself.
    There's panic buying around the world.

    Mexico

    https://twitter.com/crespo_fer/status/1233459209133490179?s=20

    New Zealand!

    htts://twitter.com/mstevnz/status/1233459365807562754?s=20

    And, less surprisingly, America

    htps://twitter.com/MikeLoBurgio/status/1233452244084969475?s=20


    Also, Germany, Japan, Romania...
    Pleased with myself that I worked out cubreboca without help.

    It is increasingly dawning on me that this is really, really serious and that we are still in, though approaching the end of, the phoney war stage. Buy tins. Do not buy shares.
    Sainsbury's this afternoon was a bit fall of Saigon. I've stocked up on a lot of things, but will need to grab some beans. I can't imagine what it'll be like when we get an Italian or NRW style community outbreak in the UK.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still, at least here things are under control and so there's no reason to panic:

    https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1233450841895514112

    You already can’t order sanitiser at a sensible price, or at all from the major supermarkets. If this hits London in a big way, the panic will be a sight to behold. At least the rest of the country can feed itself.
    There's panic buying around the world.

    Mexico

    https://twitter.com/crespo_fer/status/1233459209133490179?s=20

    New Zealand!

    htts://twitter.com/mstevnz/status/1233459365807562754?s=20

    And, less surprisingly, America

    htps://twitter.com/MikeLoBurgio/status/1233452244084969475?s=20


    Also, Germany, Japan, Romania...
    Pleased with myself that I worked out cubreboca without help.

    It is increasingly dawning on me that this is really, really serious and that we are still in, though approaching the end of, the phoney war stage. Buy tins. Do not buy shares.
    Id quod supra buccam portatur? :wink:
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still, at least here things are under control and so there's no reason to panic:

    https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1233450841895514112

    You already can’t order sanitiser at a sensible price, or at all from the major supermarkets. If this hits London in a big way, the panic will be a sight to behold. At least the rest of the country can feed itself.
    There's panic buying around the world.

    Mexico

    https://twitter.com/crespo_fer/status/1233459209133490179?s=20

    New Zealand!

    htts://twitter.com/mstevnz/status/1233459365807562754?s=20

    And, less surprisingly, America

    htps://twitter.com/MikeLoBurgio/status/1233452244084969475?s=20


    Also, Germany, Japan, Romania...
    Pleased with myself that I worked out cubreboca without help.

    It is increasingly dawning on me that this is really, really serious and that we are still in, though approaching the end of, the phoney war stage. Buy tins. Do not buy shares.
    The shares in any company that makes hand sanitiser must be worth a punt?
    There are probably more companies which used to import hand sanitizer from China when they used to make it there, than companies which make hand sanitizer. But dyor.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited February 2020
    eadric said:



    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233406488032563200?s=20

    A CCP official makes a "secret" trip to Hubei and finds 400,000 severe and chronic non-corona patients going without treatment

    I think it's the new Wuhan Party Secretary giving his predecessor a bollocking for not being on top of the situation and things are going to be different from now on. It seems to be official media, quoted from the main newspaper in the next province. The Party Sec cracks a (not very good) joke at the end of the piece.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    Still, at least here things are under control and so there's no reason to panic:

    https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1233450841895514112

    You already can’t order sanitiser at a sensible price, or at all from the major supermarkets. If this hits London in a big way, the panic will be a sight to behold. At least the rest of the country can feed itself.
    There's panic buying around the world.

    Mexico

    https://twitter.com/crespo_fer/status/1233459209133490179?s=20

    New Zealand!

    htts://twitter.com/mstevnz/status/1233459365807562754?s=20

    And, less surprisingly, America

    htps://twitter.com/MikeLoBurgio/status/1233452244084969475?s=20


    Also, Germany, Japan, Romania...
    Pleased with myself that I worked out cubreboca without help.

    It is increasingly dawning on me that this is really, really serious and that we are still in, though approaching the end of, the phoney war stage. Buy tins. Do not buy shares.
    Id quod supra buccam portatur? :wink:
    Ita est!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I fear

    Read
    I know that's what it says! It's obvious this is a major problem. Cancer patients are dying in Hubei because all the beds are filled with covid.


    I recommend you read that lady's whole feed. Anyone who thinks China has this nailed down will find it sobering.
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I fear this is quite bad. Basic water supplies breaking down in Hubei

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233439135622455297?s=20

    The tweeter's entire feed is illuminating, and concerning. It does NOT look like China has this under control.

    eg:

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233406488032563200?s=20

    A CCP official makes a "secret" trip to Hubei and finds 400,000 severe and chronic non-corona patients going without treatment

    Reader and more multimorbid population than Hubei, that is something that would be of deep concern.

    I know that's what it. Anyone who thinks China has this nailed down will find it sobering.
    I think you deson to this very serious issue
    Thankicture emerges. Which it is important to see.
    The problem isn’t your digging, it’s that you are digging looking for one type of information only and posting only the worst case projections that you find. There is plenty more level headed and less alarmist factual material out there, if you were willing to look for it.

    We don’t have many hard facts to cling to, right now. But I come back to that ski chalet that started the British and French outbreaks. A guy pitches up there from China, carrying the virus, unbeknownst to the rest of the party. They spend a whole week together in close confinement in ideal cold dry conditions for the virus to transmit. Yet most (just) of that party come away uninfected, and all of them are still alive.
    Simply not true. I post the picture as I see it, including good news - see below where I say Singapore is clearly controlling covid. Earlier I noted that the percentage of critical cases was declining worldwide. And so on.

    The trouble is, the overall picture at the moment IS pretty depressing. There isn't that much good news. That's why WHO has raised the global alert to the highest possible.

    One anecdote from a chalet really doesn't balance that.

    The number of UK cases is still so small that they are all anecdotal. And all alive.
  • Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I fear

    Read
    I know that's what it says! It's obvious this is a major problem. Cancer patients are dying in Hubei because all the beds are filled with covid.


    I recommend you read that lady's whole feed. Anyone who thinks China has this nailed down will find it sobering.
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I fear this is quite bad. Basic water supplies breaking down in Hubei

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233439135622455297?s=20

    The tweeter's entire feed is illuminating, and concerning. It does NOT look like China has this under control.

    eg:

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233406488032563200?s=20

    A CCP official makes a "secret" trip to Hubei and finds 400,000 severe and chronic non-corona patients going without treatment

    Reader and more multimorbid population than Hubei, that is something that would be of deep concern.

    I know that's what it. Anyone who thinks China has this nailed down will find it sobering.
    I think you deson to this very serious issue
    Thankicture emerges. Which it is important to see.
    The problem isn’t your digging, it’s that you are digging looking for one type of information only and posting only the worst case projections that you find. There is plenty more level headed and less alarmist factual material out there, if you were willing to look for it.

    the party. They spend a whole week together in close confinement in ideal cold dry conditions for the virus to transmit. Yet most (just) of that party come away uninfected, and all of them are still alive.
    Simply not true. I post the picture as I see it, including good news - see below where I say Singapore is clearly controlling covid. Earlier I noted that the percentage of critical cases was declining worldwide. And so on.

    The trouble is, the overall picture at the moment IS pretty depressing. There isn't that much good news. That's why WHO has raised the global alert to the highest possible.

    One anecdote from a chalet really doesn't balance that.

    The number of UK cases is still so small that they are all anecdotal. And all alive.
    The GP in Surrey I fear is an ominous development. By the end of the weekend we might again have a very different picture.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    But it’ll be the fear and reaction (and counter-measures), rather than the mortality, that will damage the economy, as well.

  • But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with

    The UK is playing fast and loose with the WA on the question of the checks for GB to NI trade.
    No. The PM was 100% clear on that during the election campaign - no checks.

    Europe ratified the deal AFTER the election campaign. Nothing has changed since then. The PM has been consistent before and after ratification, its not like it was bait and switch.
    Eh? So you think the EU should think it's OK because Boris lied to the electorate about the content of the treaty to which he had already agreed, which was the oven-ready centrepoint of his manifesto, and which after the election his party voted through parliament and his government formally ratified?

    It's a view, as they say.

    Here's a sane view - a long thread, but very well-informed:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1232951489435402241
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Haha.

    This ain't like Brexit where people can pretend expertise on topics and drag out tedious debates over three years. This is science.

    We'll soon see who is correct and who is talking absolute garbage.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited February 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    But it’ll be the fear and reaction (and counter-measures), rather than the mortality, that will damage the economy, as well.
    Yes, sure, if the fear, reaction and counter-measures are out of proportion with the actual threat. We are self-creating a crisis. Share prices have been indiscriminately marked-down en masse. This is a sign of a massive buying opportunity at some point. But not quite yet, I fear.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    But it’ll be the fear and reaction (and counter-measures), rather than the mortality, that will damage the economy, as well.
    Yep you are right, but I have joined in and cancelled a £60K car purchase, my share portfolio has lost way more than that, but I am not too worried, it will come back, I have enough to live on, but there will be many others who will have a life changing experience.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg and Trump are all quite old.

    They also meet a lot of people.

    They are going to be much, much more likely to catch the coronavirus than a normal person. And they are much more likely to die from it.

    And they don't need to die to be derailed. Any significant illness would cast serious doubt on their ability to be President (or to continue to be President).

    Maybe it's time to look at the Pence next President bets again...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    But it’ll be the fear and reaction (and counter-measures), rather than the mortality, that will damage the economy, as well.
    Yes, sure, if the fear, reaction and counter-measures are out of proportion with the actual threat. We are self-creating a crisis. Share prices have been indiscriminately marked-down on mass. This is a sign of a massive buying opportunity at some point. But not quite yet, I fear.
    TBF shares are being marked down en masse only partly because of people “selling everything”. So much of people’s holdings is in pooled funds, trackers and ETFs that when you sell them, you are selling every share on the index, even those that may stand to gain from the crisis. That’s simply the way the market works.

    There is money to be made if you can be bothered to do the research to identify companies being sold down along with the whole market whose business models will be neutral or might benefit from the worst case scenarios.
  • eadric said:

    This is barely believable. At some point, surely, American voters will punish their politicians for such incompetence.

    Very unfortunately, the CDC (normally very competent) seem to have badly screwed up on this:

    https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

    Not sure that one's the fault of the politicians, to be fair.
  • eadric said:

    This is barely believable. At some point, surely, American voters will punish their politicians for such incompetence

    https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1233455622680727553?s=20

    Having the most expensive system in the world you would think would do a better job. It’s like having a really expensive prestige car with all the extras but it’sreally shit and a ten year old Ford Fiesta is more reliable.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Excellent thread header. All (except Michelle) will think they can win and be desperate to stay in. But some will run short on cash. If I were Biden, I'd be offering anything to get Klobuchar or Buttegieg to stand aside.

  • But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with

    The UK is playing fast and loose with the WA on the question of the checks for GB to NI trade.
    No. The PM was 100% clear on that during the election campaign - no checks.

    Europe ratified the deal AFTER the election campaign. Nothing has changed since then. The PM has been consistent before and after ratification, its not like it was bait and switch.
    Eh? So you think the EU should think it's OK because Boris lied to the electorate about the content of the treaty to which he had already agreed, which was the oven-ready centrepoint of his manifesto, and which after the election his party voted through parliament and his government formally ratified?

    It's a view, as they say.

    Here's a sane view - a long thread, but very well-informed:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1232951489435402241
    Something very close to a no-deal Brexit is quite possible, and economic damage from the virus is a certainty, if not widespread serious cases of it. As I mentioned earlier in the year, the government's apparently "impregnable" position may look very different by the end of it.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019

    Riots for dettol and face masks. I jest but there might be a significant problem with maintaining law and order. Can't see that happening in South Korea or Singapore.

    South Korea and Singapore also have a large number of recent former conscripts they can pull back into service. That's a trained resource most of Europe and the States just doesn't have.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I fear

    Read
    I know that's what it says! It's obvious this is a major problem. Cancer patients are dying in Hubei because all the beds are filled with covid.


    I recommend you read that lady's whole feed. Anyone who thinks China has this nailed down will find it sobering.
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    I fear this is quite bad. Basic water supplies breaking down in Hubei

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233439135622455297?s=20

    The tweeter's entire feed is illuminating, and concerning. It does NOT look like China has this under control.

    eg:

    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1233406488032563200?s=20

    A CCP official makes a "secret" trip to Hubei and finds 400,000 severe and chronic non-corona patients going without treatment

    Reader and more multimorbid population than Hubei, that is something that would be of deep concern.

    I know that's what it. Anyone who thinks China has this nailed down will find it sobering.
    I think you deson to this very serious issue
    Thankicture emerges. Which it is important to see.
    The problem isn’t your digging, it’s that you are digging looking for one type of information only and posting only the worst case projections that you find. There is plenty more level headed and less alarmist factual material out there, if you were willing to look for it.

    the party. They spend a whole week together in close confinement in ideal cold dry conditions for the virus to transmit. Yet most (just) of that party come away uninfected, and all of them are still alive.
    Simply not true. I post the picture as I see it, including good news - see below where I say Singapore is clearly controlling covid. Earlier I noted that the percentage of critical cases was declining worldwide. And so on.

    The trouble is, the overall picture at the moment IS pretty depressing. There isn't that much good news. That's why WHO has raised the global alert to the highest possible.

    One anecdote from a chalet really doesn't balance that.

    The number of UK cases is still so small that they are all anecdotal. And all alive.
    The GP in Surrey I fear is an ominous development. By the end of the weekend we might again have a very different picture.
    Yes, there was no foreign travel, it seems. It could be in the wild.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    eadric said:
    We've stocked up on essentials: whisky, brandy, decent red wine, stilton, brie and cheese biscuits.

    I will take some photos from our local supermarket later if you like, but I was there yesterday, and I saw exactly zero empty shelves.
  • Gabs3 said:


    The Political Declaration made clear that we were leaving the EU and will be setting our own laws.

    The EU wish to rewrite parts of that to keep us attached.

    Oh and the PD is non-binding. We discussed that a lot last year don't forget.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was as promised in the manifesto and ratified after the election, so in no conceivable way does the decisive electoral win justify reneging on it: quite the opposite, it should make it unthinkable to do so.

    Of course, you are right that it is non-binding. That simply means that the EU (and other countries) will rightly conclude that they can't trust anything this government says, or even formally signs up to, unless they've got a cast-iron legal deal enforceable by penalties. It's the most disastrous way of beginning negotiation Boris could have managed,
    We didn't agree to a binding level playing field whereby we mirror EU rules in perpetuity. Nor did the PD rule out a Canadian style deal as the UK is too close to the EU despite the fact Barnier personally talked up a Canada deal in the past.

    In fact the PD EXPLICITLY links the strength of a trade agreement to the strength of a level playing field. So a Canadian-style LPF agreement in exchange for a Canadian-style trade agreement is an entirely reasonable request by the British government.

    If the EU wants to enforce an EU style LPF for any trade deal they are the ones breaking the PD, not us.
    Where does it say that in the PD?
    Page 14, point 77.

    77. Given the Union and the United Kingdom's geographic proximity and economic interdependence, the future relationship must ensure open and fair competition, encompassing robust commitments to ensure a level playing field. The precise nature of commitments should be commensurate with the scope and depth of the future relationship and the economic connectedness of the Parties.

    "Commensurate with the scope and depth of the future relationship".
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited February 2020
    As some pleasant light relief, this headline sums up why Bernie Sanders is in the driving seat - he's building a spectacularly wide coalition.

    "Bernie Sanders to hold rally with Public Enemy and Dick Van Dyke"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
    Exactly.

    The markets (already in a record bull run and set for a correction) are reacting rationally to very bad economic news, such as this:

    https://twitter.com/mvollmer1/status/1233089988167897088?s=20

    This isn't hysteria, it's cold hard data.

    But I'm done for today. Gin!


    It is comparing full Feb 2019 with only two weeks of Feb 2020, so it's practically a LibDem bar chart.

    (Although I will grant you that there will be a very, very significant drop off in things like new car sales. I'm hoping some people cancel some Taycans, and I can get one for a big discount to list.)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
    Sensible people will act sensibly! Add a few extra items in your shopping each time, avoid crowds and enclosed spaces, save face masks for medical professionals, yes wash your hands and try not to stretch the health services unnecessarily. Remember that failure to stay calm and behave sensibly puts others lives at risk through choking the health services up, am waiting for quite urgent surgery out in Spain and just hope the system can cope, looking sound at present but we are not far from the tipping point into chaos. Keep calm but don’t underestimate the potential problems or over react.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228

    eadric said:

    This is barely believable. At some point, surely, American voters will punish their politicians for such incompetence.

    Very unfortunately, the CDC (normally very competent) seem to have badly screwed up on this:

    https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

    Not sure that one's the fault of the politicians, to be fair.
    It has been compounded by the FDA not fast tracking alternate tests.
    A competent executive could have knocked heads together,

    It’s not as though the US doesn’t have the technology.
  • eadric said:

    This is barely believable. At some point, surely, American voters will punish their politicians for such incompetence.

    Very unfortunately, the CDC (normally very competent) seem to have badly screwed up on this:

    https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

    Not sure that one's the fault of the politicians, to be fair.
    You don't think politicians gutting the CDC and replacing the experienced team who deal with outbreaks with their own appointees may be responsible for the normally competent CDC being incompetent this time?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited February 2020
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    This is barely believable. At some point, surely, American voters will punish their politicians for such incompetence

    https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1233455622680727553?s=20

    Having the most expensive system in the world you would think would do a better job. It’s like having a really expensive prestige car with all the extras but it’sreally shit and a ten year old Ford Fiesta is more reliable.
    Isn't that actually true? Really high performance supercars can go wrong in multiple ways, and are hard to fix, whereas a 2CV will last for decades, and if it goes wrong you can fix it with glue.

    The Kalashnikov Principle
    Point of peasantry*!

    The brake pipes on a 2 CV are a bugger to replace. They run inside the axle...

    *Should be pedantry, but rather like peasantry.

  • But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with

    The UK is playing fast and loose with the WA on the question of the checks for GB to NI trade.
    No. The PM was 100% clear on that during the election campaign - no checks.

    Europe ratified the deal AFTER the election campaign. Nothing has changed since then. The PM has been consistent before and after ratification, its not like it was bait and switch.
    Eh? So you think the EU should think it's OK because Boris lied to the electorate about the content of the treaty to which he had already agreed, which was the oven-ready centrepoint of his manifesto, and which after the election his party voted through parliament and his government formally ratified?

    It's a view, as they say.

    Here's a sane view - a long thread, but very well-informed:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1232951489435402241
    No. The PM was consistent with the electorate and now and should stick with that. If the EU had an issue with it they should have said that (given the PM was saying what he was) before ratification, not take an issue with it afterwards.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,483


    But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with

    The UK is playing fast and loose with the WA on the question of the checks for GB to NI trade.
    No. The PM was 100% clear on that during the election campaign - no checks.

    Europe ratified the deal AFTER the election campaign. Nothing has changed since then. The PM has been consistent before and after ratification, its not like it was bait and switch.
    Eh? So you think the EU should think it's OK because Boris lied to the electorate about the content of the treaty to which he had already agreed, which was the oven-ready centrepoint of his manifesto, and which after the election his party voted through parliament and his government formally ratified?

    It's a view, as they say.

    Here's a sane view - a long thread, but very well-informed:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1232951489435402241
    Something very close to a no-deal Brexit is quite possible, and economic damage from the virus is a certainty, if not widespread serious cases of it. As I mentioned earlier in the year, the government's apparently "impregnable" position may look very different by the end of it.
    Did you worry when choosing your UN that people might nickname you WhisperingOrifice?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
    Exactly.

    The markets (already in a record bull run and set for a correction) are reacting rationally to very bad economic news, such as this:

    https://twitter.com/mvollmer1/status/1233089988167897088?s=20

    This isn't hysteria, it's cold hard data.

    But I'm done for today. Gin!


    It is comparing full Feb 2019 with only two weeks of Feb 2020, so it's practically a LibDem bar chart.

    (Although I will grant you that there will be a very, very significant drop off in things like new car sales. I'm hoping some people cancel some Taycans, and I can get one for a big discount to list.)
    Not getting a Model X?
  • Just signing up a registration for something online and amused by this GDPR-related I'm assuming phrasing on the tick box for signing up for newsletters: "Do not opt me out of occasional newsletters with exclusive offers and the latest news."

    Never seen phrasing like that before, but I'm assuming its GDPR-compliant and the double-negative on it is rather amusing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
    Exactly.

    The markets (already in a record bull run and set for a correction) are reacting rationally to very bad economic news, such as this:

    https://twitter.com/mvollmer1/status/1233089988167897088?s=20

    This isn't hysteria, it's cold hard data.

    But I'm done for today. Gin!


    It is comparing full Feb 2019 with only two weeks of Feb 2020, so it's practically a LibDem bar chart.

    (Although I will grant you that there will be a very, very significant drop off in things like new car sales. I'm hoping some people cancel some Taycans, and I can get one for a big discount to list.)
    I can’t be the only one whose inbox is suddenly full of travel offers and discounts?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited February 2020


    But it is not the WDA that is in dispute.

    It is the interpretation of the PD which both sides are playing fast and lose with

    The UK is playing fast and loose with the WA on the question of the checks for GB to NI trade.
    No. The PM was 100% clear on that during the election campaign - no checks.

    Europe ratified the deal AFTER the election campaign. Nothing has changed since then. The PM has been consistent before and after ratification, its not like it was bait and switch.
    Eh? So you think the EU should think it's OK because Boris lied to the electorate about the content of the treaty to which he had already agreed, which was the oven-ready centrepoint of his manifesto, and which after the election his party voted through parliament and his government formally ratified?

    It's a view, as they say.

    Here's a sane view - a long thread, but very well-informed:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1232951489435402241
    Something very close to a no-deal Brexit is quite possible, and economic damage from the virus is a certainty, if not widespread serious cases of it. As I mentioned earlier in the year, the government's apparently "impregnable" position may look very different by the end of it.
    Did you worry when choosing your UN that people might nickname you WhisperingOrifice?
    Funnily enough not. One thing I did never worry about was being gratuitously or cheaply rude - hopefully none of us will have to deal with this problem.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    The headline on Bloomberg is "Market Meltdown".

    And "Virus Drops Stocks to Four Month Low".

    Four month low??? OMG OMG OMG.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    nichomar said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
    Sensible people will act sensibly! Add a few extra items in your shopping each time, avoid crowds and enclosed spaces, save face masks for medical professionals, yes wash your hands and try not to stretch the health services unnecessarily. Remember that failure to stay calm and behave sensibly puts others lives at risk through choking the health services up, am waiting for quite urgent surgery out in Spain and just hope the system can cope, looking sound at present but we are not far from the tipping point into chaos. Keep calm but don’t underestimate the potential problems or over react.
    Fingers crossed you get the surgery sorted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
    Exactly.

    The markets (already in a record bull run and set for a correction) are reacting rationally to very bad economic news, such as this:

    https://twitter.com/mvollmer1/status/1233089988167897088?s=20

    This isn't hysteria, it's cold hard data.

    But I'm done for today. Gin!


    It is comparing full Feb 2019 with only two weeks of Feb 2020, so it's practically a LibDem bar chart.

    (Although I will grant you that there will be a very, very significant drop off in things like new car sales. I'm hoping some people cancel some Taycans, and I can get one for a big discount to list.)
    Not getting a Model X?
    I own an original Roadster and I used to have a Model S.

    The reviews of the Taycan have been excellent, so why not?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
    Exactly.

    The markets (already in a record bull run and set for a correction) are reacting rationally to very bad economic news, such as this:

    https://twitter.com/mvollmer1/status/1233089988167897088?s=20

    This isn't hysteria, it's cold hard data.

    But I'm done for today. Gin!


    It is comparing full Feb 2019 with only two weeks of Feb 2020, so it's practically a LibDem bar chart.

    (Although I will grant you that there will be a very, very significant drop off in things like new car sales. I'm hoping some people cancel some Taycans, and I can get one for a big discount to list.)
    I can’t be the only one whose inbox is suddenly full of travel offers and discounts?
    As is mine
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
    Exactly.

    The markets (already in a record bull run and set for a correction) are reacting rationally to very bad economic news, such as this:

    https://twitter.com/mvollmer1/status/1233089988167897088?s=20

    This isn't hysteria, it's cold hard data.

    But I'm done for today. Gin!


    It is comparing full Feb 2019 with only two weeks of Feb 2020, so it's practically a LibDem bar chart.

    (Although I will grant you that there will be a very, very significant drop off in things like new car sales. I'm hoping some people cancel some Taycans, and I can get one for a big discount to list.)
    I can’t be the only one whose inbox is suddenly full of travel offers and discounts?
    As is mine
  • nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
    Exactly.

    The markets (already in a record bull run and set for a correction) are reacting rationally to very bad economic news, such as this:

    https://twitter.com/mvollmer1/status/1233089988167897088?s=20

    This isn't hysteria, it's cold hard data.

    But I'm done for today. Gin!


    It is comparing full Feb 2019 with only two weeks of Feb 2020, so it's practically a LibDem bar chart.

    (Although I will grant you that there will be a very, very significant drop off in things like new car sales. I'm hoping some people cancel some Taycans, and I can get one for a big discount to list.)
    I can’t be the only one whose inbox is suddenly full of travel offers and discounts?
    As is mine
    #hotukdeals
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    A race to hire 50,000 people in the next six months to process Brexit paperwork is under way after the government confirmed they would be needed for border operations.

    50,000 people! To be employed filling in forms we didn’t have to bother with before!

    £20 million a week!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    rcs1000 said:

    The headline on Bloomberg is "Market Meltdown".

    And "Virus Drops Stocks to Four Month Low".

    Four month low??? OMG OMG OMG.

    Wasn't that when we had the last pandemic? :p
  • IanB2 said:

    A race to hire 50,000 people in the next six months to process Brexit paperwork is under way after the government confirmed they would be needed for border operations.

    50,000 people! To be employed filling in forms we didn’t have to bother with before!

    £20 million a week!

    Take it from the NHS?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Why do news outlets not say where the recent infections are? We know it’s a GP in surrey but the news just says another case in the uk.
  • rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Chameleon said:

    The one issue with the Corona Doomers from a few weeks ago is that they seem to have largely been proven right on what the situation would look like now.

    I'd class myself as one of those doomers. It was fairly easy to predict the opening salvo of this virus.

    What is almost now impossible to predict is the scale and scope of this pandemic. But every facet of life will be changed or touched by this.

    Brexit is a mere gnat on an elephants backside compared to the impact of this virus.
    The one thing more contagious than coronavirus is hysteria. This hysteria outbreak really has become contagious it seems.
    Yep, it is the hysteria and media who have caused massive losses for investors rather tha the virus itself.
    It seems to me that the pessimists are making sober factual statements about the real world which turn out to be true (the disease will spread, people will die, markets will fall) while the anti-pessimists (they lack the jollity to be called optimists) are getting stuck in to a Trump type meta narrative about fake news and motive and hysteria. Blaming market falls on hysteria when the entirely factual shutdown of much of Chinese industry and the worldwide travel and holiday industry are in play is not rational and not likely to do you any good. Indeed, you are in danger of inflicting serious losses on yourself if you start actually believing that it is a whimsical, sentiment thing which could go into reverse at any moment.
    Exactly.

    The markets (already in a record bull run and set for a correction) are reacting rationally to very bad economic news, such as this:

    https://twitter.com/mvollmer1/status/1233089988167897088?s=20

    This isn't hysteria, it's cold hard data.

    But I'm done for today. Gin!


    It is comparing full Feb 2019 with only two weeks of Feb 2020, so it's practically a LibDem bar chart.

    (Although I will grant you that there will be a very, very significant drop off in things like new car sales. I'm hoping some people cancel some Taycans, and I can get one for a big discount to list.)
    Not getting a Model X?
    I own an original Roadster and I used to have a Model S.

    The reviews of the Taycan have been excellent, so why not?
    Nowhere near as efficient as Tesla, so not great range.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    IanB2 said:

    A race to hire 50,000 people in the next six months to process Brexit paperwork is under way after the government confirmed they would be needed for border operations.

    50,000 people! To be employed filling in forms we didn’t have to bother with before!

    £20 million a week!

    Take it from the NHS?
    Still got £330million a week spare.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229
    rcs1000 said:

    The headline on Bloomberg is "Market Meltdown".

    And "Virus Drops Stocks to Four Month Low".

    Four month low??? OMG OMG OMG.

    Quite. The floor could be out of sight. Gosh.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    eadric said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:
    We've stocked up on essentials: whisky, brandy, decent red wine, stilton, brie and cheese biscuits.

    I will take some photos from our local supermarket later if you like, but I was there yesterday, and I saw exactly zero empty shelves.
    I somehow feel you don't live in typical Middle America.
    Obviously. Decent cheese is not possible in flyover states.
  • Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:
    We've stocked up on essentials: whisky, brandy, decent red wine, stilton, brie and cheese biscuits.

    I will take some photos from our local supermarket later if you like, but I was there yesterday, and I saw exactly zero empty shelves.
    I somehow feel you don't live in typical Middle America.
    Obviously. Decent cheese is not possible in flyover states.
    Wisconsin?
  • RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    A race to hire 50,000 people in the next six months to process Brexit paperwork is under way after the government confirmed they would be needed for border operations.

    50,000 people! To be employed filling in forms we didn’t have to bother with before!

    £20 million a week!

    Take it from the NHS?
    Still got £330million a week spare.
    Where are these robots when you actually need them?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD are you happy with the way the government are handling the Coronavirus situation?

    No deaths in the UK from it yet, the only fatality of a UK citizen in Japan, so yes
    The UK's record on testing for cases seems to be the best in the world other than South Korea's, but the latter had a big outbreak to deal with.
    Just spoke to a friend of mine

    He’s shipping 100,000 validated diagnostic kits for Covid-19 to California Monday

    He also has clinical trials underway for a novel vaccine (he has a proprietary vaccine platform technology). Expect extend results mid/late March. Only challenge is getting enough patients to make it statistically significant
  • Brexit seems so last year...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:
    We've stocked up on essentials: whisky, brandy, decent red wine, stilton, brie and cheese biscuits.

    I will take some photos from our local supermarket later if you like, but I was there yesterday, and I saw exactly zero empty shelves.
    I somehow feel you don't live in typical Middle America.
    Obviously. Decent cheese is not possible in flyover states.
    Wisconsin?
    I brought some cheese and jam home from my US trip last year, as I generally do from travel abroad. Neither US cheese nor jam had anything to commend itself, the former being rubbery and tasteless and the latter sugary and tasteless.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Boris was just on BBC News, was that from earlier? Basically, 'wash your hands' was what I got from it

    That is the single most impactful thing an individual can do
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Boris was just on BBC News, was that from earlier? Basically, 'wash your hands' was what I got from it

    That is the single most impactful thing an individual can do
    Boris is after all a master of the art.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Foxy said:
    This thing sounds incredibly contagious. Unless they were all kissing or something.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    mmmmmm, I like it when articles confirm my biases.

    Why Liberals and Atheists Are More Intelligent
    https://personal.lse.ac.uk/kanazawa/pdfs/SPQ2010.pdf
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2020

    mmmmmm, I like it when articles confirm my biases.

    Why Liberals and Atheists Are More Intelligent
    https://personal.lse.ac.uk/kanazawa/pdfs/SPQ2010.pdf

    I agree with both of those (depending upon your definition of liberal).
  • Brexit seems so last year...

    Good job we got it done before all this kicked off.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The Political Declaration made clear that we were leaving the EU and will be setting our own laws.

    The EU wish to rewrite parts of that to keep us attached.

    Oh and the PD is non-binding. We discussed that a lot last year don't forget.
    I haven’t seen that much criticism of the EU cherry picking the dates in the PD as well
  • RobD said:

    Foxy said:
    This thing sounds incredibly contagious. Unless they were all kissing or something.
    Bloody hell...
  • Why did both the sars virus and this one begin in China ? It's the coming superpower and at the centre of globalisation, so whatever the answer is it's very important.
  • Daily Mail:

    London's Hyde Park would be turned into a morgue if the killer coronavirus outbreak escalates in the UK, under worst-case scenario plans.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    As some pleasant light relief, this headline sums up why Bernie Sanders is in the driving seat - he's building a spectacularly wide coalition.

    "Bernie Sanders to hold rally with Public Enemy and Dick Van Dyke"

    Chim-chiminee, motherfuckers.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    I got nicely complimented today. "Like the hat. But that coat - magnificent."

    It was Art Malik.

    (I was rocking the vintage Valentino, if you were wondering....)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    The Political Declaration made clear that we were leaving the EU and will be setting our own laws.

    The EU wish to rewrite parts of that to keep us attached.

    Oh and the PD is non-binding. We discussed that a lot last year don't forget.

    That doesn't alter the fact that it was as promised in the manifesto and ratified after the election, so in no conceivable way does the decisive electoral win justify reneging on it: quite the opposite, it should make it unthinkable to do so.

    Of course, you are right that it is non-binding. That simply means that the EU (and other countries) will rightly conclude that they can't trust anything this government says, or even formally signs up to, unless they've got a cast-iron legal deal enforceable by penalties. It's the most disastrous way of beginning negotiation Boris could have managed,
    To be honest, and fair, both sides are playing fast and lose with the PD

    This is not one sided
    It's pretty one-sided. The EU is retrenching precisely because they have been worried at the signs that the UK is trying to wriggle out of the Withdrawal Agreement, and who can blame them for that?
    So the EU attempt on sequencing is justified by what exactly?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Daily Mail:

    London's Hyde Park would be turned into a morgue if the killer coronavirus outbreak escalates in the UK, under worst-case scenario plans.

    Under worst-case scenario plans, all readers of the Daily Mail succumb....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:
    This thing sounds incredibly contagious. Unless they were all kissing or something.
    Apparently the cult is not co operating in handing over members lists and contacts.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    mmmmmm, I like it when articles confirm my biases.

    Why Liberals and Atheists Are More Intelligent
    https://personal.lse.ac.uk/kanazawa/pdfs/SPQ2010.pdf

    The gist of it seems to be that the less intelligent, aware of their limitations, realise that the optimum strategy is to ape the values of those around them, whereas the more intelligent have the intellectual confidence to strike out on their own.

    How this works in a majority liberal atheist society is the question.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Daily Mail:

    London's Hyde Park would be turned into a morgue if the killer coronavirus outbreak escalates in the UK, under worst-case scenario plans.

    Better get digging some plague pits.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:
    #Shincheonji?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:
    This thing sounds incredibly contagious. Unless they were all kissing or something.
    Apparently the cult is not co operating in handing over members lists and contacts.
    They sit close together on the floor without chairs and desks, praying extensively in what critics say creates an ideal environment to spread viral infections. The church also took roll call and frowned upon members calling in sick,
This discussion has been closed.