Nov 2018 - Ross Tessian predicts Fossil fuel cars to drop 50% by 2025 Oil glut by 2023 "I would suggest that planning for the EV disruption to displace half of ICE vehicles by 2025 would be prudent. And I would also suggest that getting out of ICE auto stocks immediately would be wise. While shorts have suggested Tesla has been headed toward bankruptcy, I suggest it is legacy auto, and many oil companies that are headed that direction, and soon."
Lol. Then I am happy to be in the same category as Dr Neil Ferguson, coronavirus expert at Imperial College London, as against the care home wage analysts of PB
Incidentally, if it does kill 1-2% of humanity, that means the virus is exactly following the plot of US drama series The Leftovers, where 1 in 50 people suddenly and inexplicably vanish. The series documents the strange and profound effects this might have on those that remain. It’s quite good.
He’s a theoretical epidemiologist. He’s been very active on Twitter since the beginning making silly statements and attracting attention
Almost as if panicking like a headless chicken attracts more attention than being calm and rational.
His personal interest is best served by becoming the media go to guy.
This is the person you should listen to (this particular statement is old but it was the first I pulled up with google). I’ll worry when he gets worried.
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
See below. You have contracted a typical PB case of Normalcy Bias, which has a case mortality rate of ~100%
One thing not to lose sight of is that mortality on this planet is 100%. No one gets off alive. There was claimed to be an exception approximately 2000 years ago but the evidence is inconclusive at best.
This is incredible. A live, interactive map of South Korea, showing the spread of the virus (and listing the details), with an English language option.
You have to wonder if the UK is capable of similar sophistication. Hmm.
So far, seems only about 3% of suspected cases are turning out to be COVID-19. Seems S. Korea is treating it seriously, checking out all possible cases.
This is incredible. A live, interactive map of South Korea, showing the spread of the virus (and listing the details), with an English language option.
You have to wonder if the UK is capable of similar sophistication. Hmm.
So far, seems only about 3% of suspected cases are turning out to be COVID-19. Seems S. Korea is treating it seriously, checking out all possible cases.
Wow, that is a surprise. I spent 2 years of my childhood in Fallingbostal which at that time had 3 British regiments including a tank regiment and a heavy artillery regiment along with huge REME workshops and sundry minor units, visiting paras etc. And that was only one of the bases of the BAOR which had its own radio station etc. Changed days indeed.
One quirk is that when you look at the numbers of German born residents of the UK the number is surprisingly high, but actually a vast number are the children of British Servicemen.
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
See below. You have contracted a typical PB case of Normalcy Bias, which has a case mortality rate of ~100%
One thing not to lose sight of is that mortality on this planet is 100%. No one gets off alive. There was claimed to be an exception approximately 2000 years ago but the evidence is inconclusive at best.
On one occasion I was singing in a choir which was persistently breathing in the wrong place. The conductor looked at us very threateningly over his glasses and said, ‘Breathing is very dangerous, you know. Everyone who breathes, dies.’
One thing not to lose sight of is that mortality on this planet is 100%. No one gets off alive. There was claimed to be an exception approximately 2000 years ago but the evidence is inconclusive at best.
Indeed. I was thinking on similar lines earlier today. Let's say Coronavirus kills 1% of people in the UK in the next year.
That sounds terrible but 0.95% of the population dies EVERY year, and we cope.
Expressed that way it's not so terrible at all. Plus the deaths, however sad, will be concentrated in the elderly and infirm, it seems.
What has the potential to make corona much worse is the way it cracks health systems (and eventually economies?) making the death rate much more severe, and also menacing other sick people (eg people with cancer in Wuhan are going untreated, because all the beds have been taken by Covid sufferers)
In that light, and if this does become a proper global pandemic, the correct response might be to accept it, and even "ignore" it. Tell anyone that has it to stay at home and take their chances, everyone else should carry on as normal.
Just let it rip but don't let it destroy the NHS or the economy. That would be ruthless but maybe effective. As against mass lockdown, which is ruthless but doesn't seem very effective.
If this does take off in this country far more people will die by being displaced from the NHS than die of the virus itself. Think of those with chronic conditions such as asthma and diabetes who require periodic care in high dependency beds. They are just not going to get it (and the dangers of them being in hospital with those infected will also be much higher). As @Foxy pointed out with his tweet earlier today we are so far from being ready for something like this.
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
See below. You have contracted a typical PB case of Normalcy Bias, which has a case mortality rate of ~100%
One thing not to lose sight of is that mortality on this planet is 100%. No one gets off alive. There was claimed to be an exception approximately 2000 years ago but the evidence is inconclusive at best.
Indeed. I was thinking on similar lines earlier today. Let's say Coronavirus kills 1% of people in the UK in the next year.
That sounds terrible but 0.95% of the population dies EVERY year, and we cope.
Expressed that way it's not so terrible at all. Plus the deaths, however sad, will be concentrated in the elderly and infirm, it seems.
What has the potential to make corona much worse is the way it cracks health systems (and eventually economies?) making the death rate much more severe, and also menacing other sick people (eg people with cancer in Wuhan are going untreated, because all the beds have been taken by Covid sufferers)
In that light, and if this does become a proper global pandemic, the correct response might be to accept it, and even "ignore" it. Tell anyone that has it to stay at home and take their chances, everyone else should carry on as normal.
Just let it rip but don't let it destroy the NHS or the economy. That would be ruthless but maybe effective. As against mass lockdown, which is ruthless but doesn't seem very effective.
Is UK death rate only 0.95% ?
Without working out the maths wouldn't a 1% death rate mean a life expectancy of 100 ?
Edit: Or would a 1% death rate suggest a life expectancy of 50 ?
Plus the deaths, however sad, will be concentrated in the elderly and infirm, it seems.
ie most of the candidates to be the next President who are going around meeting as many people as possible. What chance that one of them ends up playing the role of super-spreader if the virus gets loose in the US?
"The image those who know [Cummings] paint is one of a man who could easily blow himself up trying to fix his own boiler because he thinks the plumber is an idiot."
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
See below. You have contracted a typical PB case of Normalcy Bias, which has a case mortality rate of ~100%
One thing not to lose sight of is that mortality on this planet is 100%. No one gets off alive. There was claimed to be an exception approximately 2000 years ago but the evidence is inconclusive at best.
Indeed. I was thinking on similar lines earlier today. Let's say Coronavirus kills 1% of people in the UK in the next year.
That sounds terrible but 0.95% of the population dies EVERY year, and we cope.
Expressed that way it's not so terrible at all. Plus the deaths, however sad, will be concentrated in the elderly and infirm, it seems.
What has the potential to make corona much worse is the way it cracks health systems (and eventually economies?) making the death rate much more severe, and also menacing other sick people (eg people with cancer in Wuhan are going untreated, because all the beds have been taken by Covid sufferers)
In that light, and if this does become a proper global pandemic, the correct response might be to accept it, and even "ignore" it. Tell anyone that has it to stay at home and take their chances, everyone else should carry on as normal.
Just let it rip but don't let it destroy the NHS or the economy. That would be ruthless but maybe effective. As against mass lockdown, which is ruthless but doesn't seem very effective.
Is UK death rate only 0.95% ?
Without working out the maths wouldn't a 1% death rate mean a life expectancy of 100 ?
Edit: Or would a 1% death rate suggest a life expectancy of 50 ?
Either way, I'm sick and tired of this Project Fear from eadric.
My view is that more likely than not to be out of control outside of China. i.e. 224 cases in Korea and 34 in Italy in the last 24 hours alone, and goodness knows how many unreported cases in Iran given the 9 deaths there. Yet for now there's absolutely no point dwelling on it because until it hits the UK in force there's absolutely nothing we can do individually.
So best just to block it out and focus on this afternoon's Premier League matches, which are much more deserving of attention in the meantime.
Plus the deaths, however sad, will be concentrated in the elderly and infirm, it seems.
ie most of the candidates to be the next President who are going around meeting as many people as possible. What chance that one of them ends up playing the role of super-spreader if the virus gets loose in the US?
As you say, politicians tick several high risk boxes: generally old and male, for a start. And all they DO is meet lots of people in various rooms, shaking hands, kissing babies....
Avoid politicians.
Its not likely they would admit to ill health either.
Plus the deaths, however sad, will be concentrated in the elderly and infirm, it seems.
ie most of the candidates to be the next President who are going around meeting as many people as possible. What chance that one of them ends up playing the role of super-spreader if the virus gets loose in the US?
As you say, politicians tick several high risk boxes: generally old and male, for a start. And all they DO is meet lots of people in various rooms, shaking hands, kissing babies....
Avoid politicians.
TBF, that’s good advice whether they have coronavirus or not.
To be honest, there is little more that we can do to prepare for a Coronavirus pandemic, so we might as well talk of cabbages and kings.
I have moved my equities to a very defensive mostly cash position a few weeks back, revised my Personal Protective Equipment training and made a modest stockpile of equipment for domestic sanitation.
The NHS is securing stocks of appropriate stores, and making contingency plans. After that there is little more to do until the storm hits, if it does. We are in the phoney war stage, sitting on a mine in the Maginot Line.
We cannot magic up ICU and isolation beds and trained staff, and the UK has fewer of these than comparable countries.
In the event of a Pandemic, elective surgery will cease, and operating theatres and recovery used as overflow ICU. There may be a need to commandeer private hospitals etc for extra capacity, but neither of these adds that much.
I would recommend stocking up on Zinc supplements (quite good antiviral) asprin and ibuprofen.
There is interesting work that shows potential for some common therapeutics to be of benefit, including ACE inhibitors, statins, metformin, mesalazine and a number of others in stabilising the cytokine storm effect.
On the other hand there seems to be higher mortality in people with diabetes or cardiovascular disease, so it could be the opposite.
Either way, I'm sick and tired of this Project Fear from eadric.
My view is that more likely than not to be out of control outside of China. i.e. 224 cases in Korea and 34 in Italy in the last 24 hours alone, and goodness knows how many unreported cases in Iran given the 9 deaths there. Yet for now there's absolutely no point dwelling on it because until it hits the UK in force there's absolutely nothing we can do individually.
So best just to block it out and focus on this afternoon's Premier League matches, which are much more deserving of attention in the meantime.
There are a limited number of useful things you can do... Get enough sleep - healthy and well rested people will deal with any viral infection better; Wash hands regularly - not everyone will get it, and this is likely the simplest and most effective way of limiting infection; Avoid large numbers of people in confined spaces ... bit of a bummer for those who have to use the tube.
George Osborne didn't learn the lessons from the US sub-prime crisis. Looks like his pet scheme might have created the conditions for widespread mortgage defaults here if things go pear shaped more generally:
""In the current economic environment, this could get worse. People are only just starting to pay interest so there’s a psychological change – they may find the extra payments are not affordable.” The expected average annual cost for homeowners on the 20pc government loans is 5.2pc, compared to TSB and HSBC’s offers of first-time buyer mortgages of 3.4pc. The Government rate also increases in line with the retail price index, which is typically higher than its typical inflation measure, the consumer price index."
Either way, I'm sick and tired of this Project Fear from eadric.
My view is that more likely than not to be out of control outside of China. i.e. 224 cases in Korea and 34 in Italy in the last 24 hours alone, and goodness knows how many unreported cases in Iran given the 9 deaths there. Yet for now there's absolutely no point dwelling on it because until it hits the UK in force there's absolutely nothing we can do individually.
So best just to block it out and focus on this afternoon's Premier League matches, which are much more deserving of attention in the meantime.
There are a limited number of useful things you can do... Get enough sleep - healthy and well rested people will deal with any viral infection better; Wash hands regularly - not everyone will get it, and this is likely the simplest and most effective way of limiting infection; Avoid large numbers of people in confined spaces ... bit of a bummer for those who have to use the tube.
Otherwise, agreed.
I would recommend gloves over masks. Only masks with an airtight fit provide adequate protection, and it is important not to touch them. Those not used to aseptic technique tend to touch their face a lot and thereby contaminate themselves. Gloves stop people touching their faces reasonably well, and can be readily cleaned with soap and water.
Buried deep inside is that the viability threshold for candidates varies by county, 25% for counties with 2 delegates, 16.67% with 3 delegates and 15% with 4 delegates.
To be honest, there is little more that we can do to prepare for a Coronavirus pandemic, so we might as well talk of cabbages and kings.
I have moved my equities to a very defensive mostly cash position a few weeks back, revised my Personal Protective Equipment training and made a modest stockpile of equipment for domestic sanitation.
The NHS is securing stocks of appropriate stores, and making contingency plans. After that there is little more to do until the storm hits, if it does. We are in the phoney war stage, sitting on a mine in the Maginot Line.
We cannot magic up ICU and isolation beds and trained staff, and the UK has fewer of these than comparable countries.
In the event of a Pandemic, elective surgery will cease, and operating theatres and recovery used as overflow ICU. There may be a need to commandeer private hospitals etc for extra capacity, but neither of these adds that much.
I would recommend stocking up on Zinc supplements (quite good antiviral) asprin and ibuprofen.
There is interesting work that shows potential for some common therapeutics to be of benefit, including ACE inhibitors, statins, metformin, mesalazine and a number of others in stabilising the cytokine storm effect.
On the other hand there seems to be higher mortality in people with diabetes or cardiovascular disease, so it could be the opposite.
Did I tell you my personal story about corona? About two weeks ago the "microbiologist" at Public Health England thought I probably had it (from my answers to their long list of questions) and told me to go to UCLHospital where they were waiting to put me in isolation.
(I caught a strange flu in Thailand, where I was surrounded by Chinese tourists)
The expert didn't tell me how to get the hospital (walk, with flu, on a winter's night?), he just said put on a mask and hurry. I had no mask so I wrapped myself in a scarf and caught an Uber (sorry Uber)
An incredible NHS Snafu then meant I was isolated, then de-isolated, and eventually I gave up and sent myself home, then my GP said "self isolate", then another said don't bother, the next day. Total chaos.
I still don't know if I had it, PHE clearly thought I might. I could still be a carrier?
I hope the protocols are improved, if and when it actually hits.
Yes, we now have a Covid 19 isolation pod at my hospital, where 111 direct potential patients.
There are many other viruses about, so your illness may not be relevant. Testing for virus at this point is probably futile, and I don't think there is a reliable antibody test yet.
This is incredible. A live, interactive map of South Korea, showing the spread of the virus (and listing the details), with an English language option.
You have to wonder if the UK is capable of similar sophistication. Hmm.
So far, seems only about 3% of suspected cases are turning out to be COVID-19. Seems S. Korea is treating it seriously, checking out all possible cases.
Meanwhile in N Korea?
Indonesia.
There may be several factors - I'd discount "prayer" but "higher temperatures" may play a part in infections being much less severe - but we've gone a long time with no reported cases:
Buried deep inside is that the viability threshold for candidates varies by county, 25% for counties with 2 delegates, 16.67% with 3 delegates and 15% with 4 delegates.
Hard to not see Bernie winning, but the AV style methodology for early voting and reallocation of caucus delegates could benefit one or more of the others.
Bernie would be an electoral disaster for the Dems, dragging down the vote needed down the ticket.
Media teams have a strong time in the Premier League I guess.
That’s a great effort by both clubs to engage with a young fan.
Would have been really easy for the letter to have been sent a generic reply with a team photo, or diverted to the special round filing cabinet reserved for Man Utd fans telling Klopp that they hope his team loses.
Media teams have a strong time in the Premier League I guess.
That’s a great effort by both clubs to engage with a young fan.
Would have been really easy for the letter to have been sent a generic reply with a team photo, or diverted to the special round filing cabinet reserved for Man Utd fans telling Klopp that they hope his team loses.
If we win the title, we should put up a statue of Ed Woodward up at Anfield.
Just imagine if he hadn't fucked up the charm offensive on Klopp in 2013/14, Klopp would be Manchester United manager right now, winning trophies like they are going out of fashion and forcing us Liverpool fans to admit we actually like a United manager.
This is incredible. A live, interactive map of South Korea, showing the spread of the virus (and listing the details), with an English language option.
You have to wonder if the UK is capable of similar sophistication. Hmm.
So far, seems only about 3% of suspected cases are turning out to be COVID-19. Seems S. Korea is treating it seriously, checking out all possible cases.
Meanwhile in N Korea?
Indonesia.
There may be several factors - I'd discount "prayer" but "higher temperatures" may play a part, but we've gone a long time with no reported cases:
Buried deep inside is that the viability threshold for candidates varies by county, 25% for counties with 2 delegates, 16.67% with 3 delegates and 15% with 4 delegates.
Hard to not see Bernie winning, but the AV style methodology for early voting and reallocation of caucus delegates could benefit one or more of the others.
Bernie would be an electoral disaster for the Dems, dragging down the vote needed down the ticket.
It's actually precincts not counties, but yeah one candidate could have the upper hand in rural areas.
Lets say Sanders gets 25% on first votes ,but candidate number 2 goes from 15% to 65% in the second vote. The Delegates will be 0.7 for Sanders and 1.3 for No.2 .
But Nevada aleady looks like a procedural disaster like Iowa.
This is incredible. A live, interactive map of South Korea, showing the spread of the virus (and listing the details), with an English language option.
You have to wonder if the UK is capable of similar sophistication. Hmm.
So far, seems only about 3% of suspected cases are turning out to be COVID-19. Seems S. Korea is treating it seriously, checking out all possible cases.
Meanwhile in N Korea?
Indonesia.
There may be several factors - I'd discount "prayer" but "higher temperatures" may play a part in infections being much less severe - but we've gone a long time with no reported cases:
Singapore has corona quite badly and that is one of the warmest big cities in the world.
Which is air-conditioned to within an inch of its life. The average Singaporean spends their time in lot cooler temperatures than the average Indonesian, where air conditioning is a luxury, not a staple.
Media teams have a strong time in the Premier League I guess.
That’s a great effort by both clubs to engage with a young fan.
Would have been really easy for the letter to have been sent a generic reply with a team photo, or diverted to the special round filing cabinet reserved for Man Utd fans telling Klopp that they hope his team loses.
If we win the title, we should put up a statue of Ed Woodward up at Anfield.
Just imagine if he hadn't fucked up the charm offensive on Klopp in 2013/14, Klopp would be Manchester United manager right now, winning trophies like they are going out of fashion and forcing us Liverpool fans to admit we actually like a United manager.
There is interesting work that shows potential for some common therapeutics to be of benefit, including ACE inhibitors, statins, metformin, mesalazine and a number of others in stabilising the cytokine storm effect.
On the other hand there seems to be higher mortality in people with diabetes or cardiovascular disease, so it could be the opposite.
Did I tell you my personal story about corona? About two weeks ago the "microbiologist" at Public Health England thought I probably had it (from my answers to their long list of questions) and told me to go to UCLHospital where they were waiting to put me in isolation.
(I caught a strange flu in Thailand, where I was surrounded by Chinese tourists)
The expert didn't tell me how to get the hospital (walk, with flu, on a winter's night?), he just said put on a mask and hurry. I had no mask so I wrapped myself in a scarf and caught an Uber (sorry Uber)
An incredible NHS Snafu then meant I was isolated, then de-isolated, and eventually I gave up and sent myself home, then my GP said "self isolate", then another said don't bother, the next day. Total chaos.
I still don't know if I had it, PHE clearly thought I might. I could still be a carrier?
I hope the protocols are improved, if and when it actually hits.
Yes, we now have a Covid 19 isolation pod at my hospital, where 111 direct potential patients.
There are many other viruses about, so your illness may not be relevant. Testing for virus at this point is probably futile, and I don't think there is a reliable antibody test yet.
Ta. Noted.
It was an unnerving few days. I still have a lingering cough, but I reckon I am fine. I will never know whether I had it.
The WHO on Monday said more than 80 percent of patients with the new coronavirus show mild symptoms, while those who become critically ill are older patients or people with other medical conditions.
The Singapore Health authorities described the typical symptoms of the coronavirus as the sames as those suffered by 'tens of thousands of Singaporeans daily'.
This is incredible. A live, interactive map of South Korea, showing the spread of the virus (and listing the details), with an English language option.
You have to wonder if the UK is capable of similar sophistication. Hmm.
So far, seems only about 3% of suspected cases are turning out to be COVID-19. Seems S. Korea is treating it seriously, checking out all possible cases.
Meanwhile in N Korea?
Indonesia.
There may be several factors - I'd discount "prayer" but "higher temperatures" may play a part, but we've gone a long time with no reported cases:
And you believe that? Is Indonesia really that much hotter than Singapore? Thousands of visitors from Wuhan and not a case? It's just not credible.
Air conditioning is a lot less prevalent than in Singapore and most clusters in Singapore have been associated with indoors. There almost certainly are cases - but perhaps warmer weather is associated with milder symptoms and people passing it off as a cold. It is noticeable that most cases so far are in colder climates.
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
See below. You have contracted a typical PB case of Normalcy Bias, which has a case mortality rate of ~100%
One thing not to lose sight of is that mortality on this planet is 100%. No one gets off alive. There was claimed to be an exception approximately 2000 years ago but the evidence is inconclusive at best.
Indeed. I was thinking on similar lines earlier today. Let's say Coronavirus kills 1% of people in the UK in the next year.
That sounds terrible but 0.95% of the population dies EVERY year, and we cope.
Expressed that way it's not so terrible at all. Plus the deaths, however sad, will be concentrated in the elderly and infirm, it seems.
What has the potential to make corona much worse is the way it cracks health systems (and eventually economies?) making the death rate much more severe, and also menacing other sick people (eg people with cancer in Wuhan are going untreated, because all the beds have been taken by Covid sufferers)
In that light, and if this does become a proper global pandemic, the correct response might be to accept it, and even "ignore" it. Tell anyone that has it to stay at home and take their chances, everyone else should carry on as normal.
Just let it rip but don't let it destroy the NHS or the economy. That would be ruthless but maybe effective. As against mass lockdown, which is ruthless but doesn't seem very effective.
Is UK death rate only 0.95% ?
Without working out the maths wouldn't a 1% death rate mean a life expectancy of 100 ?
Edit: Or would a 1% death rate suggest a life expectancy of 50 ?
Unless the deaths hit randomly, it doesn’t imply any particular life expectancy.
There is interesting work that shows potential for some common therapeutics to be of benefit, including ACE inhibitors, statins, metformin, mesalazine and a number of others in stabilising the cytokine storm effect.
On the other hand there seems to be higher mortality in people with diabetes or cardiovascular disease, so it could be the opposite.
Did I tell you my personal story about corona? About two weeks ago the "microbiologist" at Public Health England thought I probably had it (from my answers to their long list of questions) and told me to go to UCLHospital where they were waiting to put me in isolation.
(I caught a strange flu in Thailand, where I was surrounded by Chinese tourists)
The expert didn't tell me how to get the hospital (walk, with flu, on a winter's night?), he just said put on a mask and hurry. I had no mask so I wrapped myself in a scarf and caught an Uber (sorry Uber)
An incredible NHS Snafu then meant I was isolated, then de-isolated, and eventually I gave up and sent myself home, then my GP said "self isolate", then another said don't bother, the next day. Total chaos.
I still don't know if I had it, PHE clearly thought I might. I could still be a carrier?
I hope the protocols are improved, if and when it actually hits.
Yes, we now have a Covid 19 isolation pod at my hospital, where 111 direct potential patients.
There are many other viruses about, so your illness may not be relevant. Testing for virus at this point is probably futile, and I don't think there is a reliable antibody test yet.
Ta. Noted.
It was an unnerving few days. I still have a lingering cough, but I reckon I am fine. I will never know whether I had it.
The WHO on Monday said more than 80 percent of patients with the new coronavirus show mild symptoms, while those who become critically ill are older patients or people with other medical conditions.
The Singapore Health authorities described the typical symptoms of the coronavirus as the sames as those suffered by 'tens of thousands of Singaporeans daily'.
Older is not that much older. 1.3% mortality in fifty somethings. For example the 51 year old medical director of a Wuhan hospital that died yesterday.
Fortunately severe disease does seem quite rare in the under thirties, but this does seem to be a risk to the middle aged too.
Media teams have a strong time in the Premier League I guess.
That’s a great effort by both clubs to engage with a young fan.
Would have been really easy for the letter to have been sent a generic reply with a team photo, or diverted to the special round filing cabinet reserved for Man Utd fans telling Klopp that they hope his team loses.
If we win the title, we should put up a statue of Ed Woodward up at Anfield.
Just imagine if he hadn't fucked up the charm offensive on Klopp in 2013/14, Klopp would be Manchester United manager right now, winning trophies like they are going out of fashion and forcing us Liverpool fans to admit we actually like a United manager.
If? IF??
Klopp is a class act and Liverpool deserve the title without a shadow of doubt
I remember when United won their first premiership I was over the moon but in a short time the question moved on to retaining it.
As long as Klopp keeps his squad Liverpool must be favourites but anything can happen in a new season
This is incredible. A live, interactive map of South Korea, showing the spread of the virus (and listing the details), with an English language option.
You have to wonder if the UK is capable of similar sophistication. Hmm.
So far, seems only about 3% of suspected cases are turning out to be COVID-19. Seems S. Korea is treating it seriously, checking out all possible cases.
Meanwhile in N Korea?
Indonesia.
There may be several factors - I'd discount "prayer" but "higher temperatures" may play a part in infections being much less severe - but we've gone a long time with no reported cases:
Singapore has corona quite badly and that is one of the warmest big cities in the world.
Which is air-conditioned to within an inch of its life. The average Singaporean spends their time in lot cooler temperatures than the average Indonesian, where air conditioning is a luxury, not a staple.
Media teams have a strong time in the Premier League I guess.
That’s a great effort by both clubs to engage with a young fan.
Would have been really easy for the letter to have been sent a generic reply with a team photo, or diverted to the special round filing cabinet reserved for Man Utd fans telling Klopp that they hope his team loses.
If we win the title, we should put up a statue of Ed Woodward up at Anfield.
Just imagine if he hadn't fucked up the charm offensive on Klopp in 2013/14, Klopp would be Manchester United manager right now, winning trophies like they are going out of fashion and forcing us Liverpool fans to admit we actually like a United manager.
If? IF??
2014 is seared in my memory, as is winning 97 pts last season and still not winning the title, no hubris here.
Also I'm convinced United signed Odion Ighalo from China to bring the coronavirus to the UK in the hopes of starting a pandemic in the UK which would see the PL cancelled before Liverpool won the title.
The scary thing about the coronavirus is not China, because containment actually seems to be working.
It’s Japan, Korea, Italy.
None of these countries seem institutionally or culturally well prepared for a pandemic.
As I said this morning, speaking to my Thai friend yesterday, there is growing panic at home. Universities cancelling field trips, people cancelling travel plans, lots of people staying indoors or wearing masks outside. Whatever the future for the virus I suggest the world's stock markets are a big sell right now.
Also: short Asian Currencies.
And yes on Thailand. I have a good friend who owns a load of restaurant chains in Bangkok, Phuket etc. She is not happy.
Buy gold. Already on the up
I have a stake in an Egyptian goldmine (CEY) in my ISA and it is up 72% and rising.
Centamin? That old tipsters’ favourite.
Investing in a single gold mining company is really just gambling.
Media teams have a strong time in the Premier League I guess.
That’s a great effort by both clubs to engage with a young fan.
Would have been really easy for the letter to have been sent a generic reply with a team photo, or diverted to the special round filing cabinet reserved for Man Utd fans telling Klopp that they hope his team loses.
If we win the title, we should put up a statue of Ed Woodward up at Anfield.
Just imagine if he hadn't fucked up the charm offensive on Klopp in 2013/14, Klopp would be Manchester United manager right now, winning trophies like they are going out of fashion and forcing us Liverpool fans to admit we actually like a United manager.
If? IF??
2014 is seared in my memory, as is winning 97 pts last season and still not winning the title, no hubris here.
Also I'm convinced United signed Odion Ighalo from China to bring the coronavirus to the UK in the hopes of starting a pandemic in the UK which would see the PL cancelled before Liverpool won the title.
You are paranoid. Liverpool have won the title with outstanding football and manager
Enjoy it - it is fully deserved and this from a United supporter since 1955
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
But SeanT was/is Chicken Licken. Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Media teams have a strong time in the Premier League I guess.
That’s a great effort by both clubs to engage with a young fan.
Would have been really easy for the letter to have been sent a generic reply with a team photo, or diverted to the special round filing cabinet reserved for Man Utd fans telling Klopp that they hope his team loses.
If we win the title, we should put up a statue of Ed Woodward up at Anfield.
Just imagine if he hadn't fucked up the charm offensive on Klopp in 2013/14, Klopp would be Manchester United manager right now, winning trophies like they are going out of fashion and forcing us Liverpool fans to admit we actually like a United manager.
If? IF??
2014 is seared in my memory, as is winning 97 pts last season and still not winning the title, no hubris here.
Also I'm convinced United signed Odion Ighalo from China to bring the coronavirus to the UK in the hopes of starting a pandemic in the UK which would see the PL cancelled before Liverpool won the title.
Liverpool are safe.
Off to the match shortly. Leicester were pisspoor against Man City away in Dec. Let's hope Rogers has a plan for today. We are short of Ndidi still, which is a worry.
Hopefully we can get the season finished before matches stop for Covid. I would be reluctant to go to Euros or Olympics though.
Media teams have a strong time in the Premier League I guess.
That’s a great effort by both clubs to engage with a young fan.
Would have been really easy for the letter to have been sent a generic reply with a team photo, or diverted to the special round filing cabinet reserved for Man Utd fans telling Klopp that they hope his team loses.
If we win the title, we should put up a statue of Ed Woodward up at Anfield.
Just imagine if he hadn't fucked up the charm offensive on Klopp in 2013/14, Klopp would be Manchester United manager right now, winning trophies like they are going out of fashion and forcing us Liverpool fans to admit we actually like a United manager.
If? IF??
2014 is seared in my memory, as is winning 97 pts last season and still not winning the title, no hubris here.
Also I'm convinced United signed Odion Ighalo from China to bring the coronavirus to the UK in the hopes of starting a pandemic in the UK which would see the PL cancelled before Liverpool won the title.
Blimey, even as a Man U fan, I certainly hope coronavirus is not that bad!
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
But SeanT was/is Chicken Licken. Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Media teams have a strong time in the Premier League I guess.
That’s a great effort by both clubs to engage with a young fan.
Would have been really easy for the letter to have been sent a generic reply with a team photo, or diverted to the special round filing cabinet reserved for Man Utd fans telling Klopp that they hope his team loses.
If we win the title, we should put up a statue of Ed Woodward up at Anfield.
Just imagine if he hadn't fucked up the charm offensive on Klopp in 2013/14, Klopp would be Manchester United manager right now, winning trophies like they are going out of fashion and forcing us Liverpool fans to admit we actually like a United manager.
If? IF??
2014 is seared in my memory, as is winning 97 pts last season and still not winning the title, no hubris here.
Also I'm convinced United signed Odion Ighalo from China to bring the coronavirus to the UK in the hopes of starting a pandemic in the UK which would see the PL cancelled before Liverpool won the title.
You are paranoid. Liverpool have won the title with outstanding football and manager
Enjoy it - it is fully deserved and this from a United supporter since 1955
Enjoy it... because it may not happen again for another 30 years!
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
But SeanT was/is Chicken Licken. Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Would be Byronic if he hadn’t changed...
I thought he posted that he had the CoronaVirus a few weeks back?
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
But SeanT was/is Chicken Licken. Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Would be Byronic if he hadn’t changed...
I thought he posted that he had the CoronaVirus a few weeks back?
He hasn't posted since, I believe.
OMG, maybe he died??
Or was transformed into another being? I have watched the Twilight Zone. These viruses are tricky things....
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
But SeanT was/is Chicken Licken. Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Would be Byronic if he hadn’t changed...
I thought he posted that he had the CoronaVirus a few weeks back?
Two PB’ers with possible infections. How unlikely was that?
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
But SeanT was/is Chicken Licken. Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Would be Byronic if he hadn’t changed...
I thought he posted that he had the CoronaVirus a few weeks back?
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
But SeanT was/is Chicken Licken. Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Would be Byronic if he hadn’t changed...
I thought he posted that he had the CoronaVirus a few weeks back?
Two PB’ers with possible infections. How unlikely was that?
That made me suspect that the virus had spead much wider than publicly reported, I was right.
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
But SeanT was/is Chicken Licken. Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Would be Byronic if he hadn’t changed...
I thought he posted that he had the CoronaVirus a few weeks back?
Two PB’ers with possible infections. How unlikely was that?
That made me suspect that the virus had spead much wider than publicly reported, I was right.
Not so wide that it had spread beyond the same address, of course.
Well not wanting to add fuel to the coronavirus fire but the death rate is increasing, it's above 3% in China and 0.85% in the rest of the world.
My guess: that's because some countries like Iran are only testing the very ill and nearly dead, artificially raising the mortality ratio. There must be 1000s of people around the world who are carrying a mild case, or are totally asymptomatic, and haven't been tested.
That's the optimistic take. There are more pessimistic interpretations, too. That the virus has a lag and kills slowly.
Well not wanting to add fuel to the coronavirus fire but the death rate is increasing, it's above 3% in China and 0.85% in the rest of the world.
My guess: that's because some countries like Iran are only testing the very ill and nearly dead, artificially raising the mortality ratio. There must be 1000s of people around the world who are carrying a mild case, or are totally asymptomatic, and haven't been tested.
That's the optimistic take. There are more pessimistic interpretations, too. That the virus has a lag and kills slowly.
Well 20% of cases are in critical condition.
Indeed. And who trusts the data out of China anyway?
The disparity between the number of cases IN Hubei and outside Hubei is entirely implausible.
The people on the ship are an interesting subset.
Total on ship: 3400 Total infected: 634 - worryingly high Total critical: 27 - not so bad? 4%? Total dead: 2 - reassuringly low - implies a CFR of about 0.3%, not that much worse than average flu. BUT - and it's a big but - nearly all of the infected cases are not resolved. Not cured. Still carrying.
There’s a reasonable chance that while the crew will skew young, the majority, the passengers, will skew disproportionately old.
Makes intuitive sense to me. The missing factor that explains it is our (quite quickly relatively) growing population.
1% would indicate a life expectancy of 100 if our population sample was stable. Our population sample isn't stable though, we have a growing population and migration shifts our age profile too (we import the young and export the old).
So many factors exist to distort the sample.
If our population stops growing then we would end up with a higher death ratio even if life expectancy remains the same.
I see this has turned into Coronaviruschat.com again
So what do you reckon, Wilder or Fury tonight? Betfair have them 2.04 and 2.12 respectively, too close to call.
I'm actually trying to decide whether to heavily lay Buttigieg if he comes 2nd in Nevada.
Are you green or red on him? I'd think if he gets second there then with that being his third runner up our of three he could become the moderate standard bearer to take on Sanders surely?
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
But SeanT was/is Chicken Licken. Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Would be Byronic if he hadn’t changed...
I thought he posted that he had the CoronaVirus a few weeks back?
I see this has turned into Coronaviruschat.com again
So what do you reckon, Wilder or Fury tonight? Betfair have them 2.04 and 2.12 respectively, too close to call.
I'm actually trying to decide whether to heavily lay Buttigieg if he comes 2nd in Nevada.
Are you green or red on him? I'd think if he gets second there then with that being his third runner up our of three he could become the moderate standard bearer to take on Sanders surely?
Green. But I'm increasingly unconvinced by Buttigieg.
He keeps scoring seconds, but he polls badly in nationals and face-ups, and he's going to have a real money challenge post Super Tuesday and perhaps even before.
Tomorrow night might be my last chance to lay him at 7s and 8s.
I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.
Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.
I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.
I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.
Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
But SeanT was/is Chicken Licken. Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Would be Byronic if he hadn’t changed...
I thought he posted that he had the CoronaVirus a few weeks back?
I see this has turned into Coronaviruschat.com again
So what do you reckon, Wilder or Fury tonight? Betfair have them 2.04 and 2.12 respectively, too close to call.
I'm actually trying to decide whether to heavily lay Buttigieg if he comes 2nd in Nevada.
Are you green or red on him? I'd think if he gets second there then with that being his third runner up our of three he could become the moderate standard bearer to take on Sanders surely?
Green. But I'm increasingly unconvinced by Buttigieg.
He keeps scoring seconds, but he polls badly in nationals and face-ups, and he's going to have a real money challenge post Super Tuesday and perhaps even before.
Tomorrow night might be my last chance to lay him at 7s and 8s.
I thought he was raising money better than Biden etc? Other than Bloomberg and Sanders who else has been raising money considerably better?
If he can maintain second and Bloomberg doesn't take off I'd think Buttigieg has potential to get more donors.
I see this has turned into Coronaviruschat.com again
So what do you reckon, Wilder or Fury tonight? Betfair have them 2.04 and 2.12 respectively, too close to call.
I'm actually trying to decide whether to heavily lay Buttigieg if he comes 2nd in Nevada.
If Nevada is anything like Iowa, it’ll be past Super Tuesday by the time we get the results!
I can’t decide what to do with Buttigeig either, he has spent a fortune in the early states to try and gain ‘momentum’, but it hasn’t really happened for him despite the results. NV is so tight that the 15% threshold could mean a couple of points either way makes a massive difference to delegate count. I think his current price at 9.2 is a sell.
Conceding that she's powerless in Westminster now?
Now? When did the cohort of SNP MPs (the largest percentage of any single party from one of the constituent nations of the UK) ever have power in Westminster? Cherry probably exerted more influence in her case at the court of session than she ever did in the HoC.
Holyrood is where it's at for Scotland now, and there may be an unseemly rush for seats.
Considering Trump's solid approval ratings and the lack of a suitable moderate candidate, it might not be a bad thing for moderates to let Sanders take this election.
Conceding that she's powerless in Westminster now?
Now? When did the cohort of SNP MPs (the largest percentage of any single party from one of the constituent nations of the UK) ever have power in Westminster? Cherry probably exerted more influence in her case at the court of session than she ever did in the HoC.
Holyrood is where it's at for Scotland now, and there may be an unseemly rush for seats.
Last she she had a lot of power in Westminster which is why she took the government to court etc
The SNP were in a position of being potential kingmakers last year but chose to go for an early election while Labour were still opposing it, aligned themselves (unilaterally) in a left alliance at the election but the left lost the election.
Had the left won then the SNP would be incredibly powerful kingmakers now and able to demand their referendum. But their side lost the election thanks to Labour.
I see this has turned into Coronaviruschat.com again
So what do you reckon, Wilder or Fury tonight? Betfair have them 2.04 and 2.12 respectively, too close to call.
It's either Wilder on a knockout or Fury on unanimous- I cannot see any other outcome.....
Yes, that does seem to be the prevailing thinking. Fury on points at 3.6 seems plausible, and 2.6 for Wilder to win by KO. We all know he only needs that one punch to connect and it’s lights out.
Conceding that she's powerless in Westminster now?
Despite liking having most of the Scottish Westminster seats as a status issue, I find it hard to believe the SNP figures present were ever particularly concerned about a lack of power there. On the contrary, lack of power to do things there helps them.
Seems to me in that half Leicester should have had two penalties and the City keeper should have got a red card.
First a corner kick hits the hands of the wall up in the air by a players head, that's clearly an unnatural position how is that not a penalty?
Then the Man City keeper basically does a late two fisted punch against the Leicester City striker. Had anyone other than the keeper done that it would have been a definite red and penalty, strikes me it should be the same.
Without working out the maths wouldn't a 1% death rate mean a life expectancy of 100 ?
Edit: Or would a 1% death rate suggest a life expectancy of 50 ?
If the death rate were constant at 1% then yes, the life expectancy woul be 100 years, but thene there would be over a 20% chance of living to 150 which we all know is nonsense.
The death rate is much much lower for 6 year olds as for 75 year olds, so the overall death rate is brought down to 1% by all those heatlhy 5 to 50 year olds the high death rate for the over 90's infleunces the meant death rate much less, because a lot of people die between 70 and 90.
Comments
Nov 2018 - Ross Tessian predicts
Fossil fuel cars to drop 50% by 2025
Oil glut by 2023
"I would suggest that planning for the EV disruption to displace half of ICE vehicles by 2025 would be prudent. And I would also suggest that getting out of ICE auto stocks immediately would be wise. While shorts have suggested Tesla has been headed toward bankruptcy, I suggest it is legacy auto, and many oil companies that are headed that direction, and soon."
Written in 2018 when Tesla going bankrupt was taken seriously.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-and-ice-impact-2023-and-beyond
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-51590230
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-become-pandemic-bigger-threat-21460108
Approximately 100k people have died today at the time of posting. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
Maybe 0.001% of them died of Covid-19.
Without working out the maths wouldn't a 1% death rate mean a life expectancy of 100 ?
Edit: Or would a 1% death rate suggest a life expectancy of 50 ?
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/22/uk/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-analysis-intl-gbr/index.html
I don't understand that either.
So best just to block it out and focus on this afternoon's Premier League matches, which are much more deserving of attention in the meantime.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/21/pete-buttigieg-nevada-strategy-116608
Another surprise win for Pete?
I have moved my equities to a very defensive mostly cash position a few weeks back, revised my Personal Protective Equipment training and made a modest stockpile of equipment for domestic sanitation.
The NHS is securing stocks of appropriate stores, and making contingency plans. After that there is little more to do until the storm hits, if it does. We are in the phoney war stage, sitting on a mine in the Maginot Line.
We cannot magic up ICU and isolation beds and trained staff, and the UK has fewer of these than comparable countries.
In the event of a Pandemic, elective surgery will cease, and operating theatres and recovery used as overflow ICU. There may be a need to commandeer private hospitals etc for extra capacity, but neither of these adds that much.
I would recommend stocking up on Zinc supplements (quite good antiviral) asprin and ibuprofen.
There is interesting work that shows potential for some common therapeutics to be of benefit, including ACE inhibitors, statins, metformin, mesalazine and a number of others in stabilising the cytokine storm effect.
On the other hand there seems to be higher mortality in people with diabetes or cardiovascular disease, so it could be the opposite.
Get enough sleep - healthy and well rested people will deal with any viral infection better;
Wash hands regularly - not everyone will get it, and this is likely the simplest and most effective way of limiting infection;
Avoid large numbers of people in confined spaces ... bit of a bummer for those who have to use the tube.
Otherwise, agreed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/22/help-buy-dream-could-become-nightmare-thousands-homeowners/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget
""In the current economic environment, this could get worse. People are only just starting to pay interest so there’s a psychological change – they may find the extra payments are not affordable.” The expected average annual cost for homeowners on the 20pc government loans is 5.2pc, compared to TSB and HSBC’s offers of first-time buyer mortgages of 3.4pc. The Government rate also increases in line with the retail price index, which is typically higher than its typical inflation measure, the consumer price index."
https://nvdems.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/2020-NSDP-Delegate-Selection-REVISED-FINAL-190626.pdf
Buried deep inside is that the viability threshold for candidates varies by county, 25% for counties with 2 delegates, 16.67% with 3 delegates and 15% with 4 delegates.
There are many other viruses about, so your illness may not be relevant. Testing for virus at this point is probably futile, and I don't think there is a reliable antibody test yet.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/reported-cases-coronavirus-indonesia-200218112232304.html
Bernie would be an electoral disaster for the Dems, dragging down the vote needed down the ticket.
Would have been really easy for the letter to have been sent a generic reply with a team photo, or diverted to the special round filing cabinet reserved for Man Utd fans telling Klopp that they hope his team loses.
Just imagine if he hadn't fucked up the charm offensive on Klopp in 2013/14, Klopp would be Manchester United manager right now, winning trophies like they are going out of fashion and forcing us Liverpool fans to admit we actually like a United manager.
Lets say Sanders gets 25% on first votes ,but candidate number 2 goes from 15% to 65% in the second vote.
The Delegates will be 0.7 for Sanders and 1.3 for No.2 .
But Nevada aleady looks like a procedural disaster like Iowa.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/reported-cases-coronavirus-indonesia-200218112232304.html
The Singapore Health authorities described the typical symptoms of the coronavirus as the sames as those suffered by 'tens of thousands of Singaporeans daily'.
Fortunately severe disease does seem quite rare in the under thirties, but this does seem to be a risk to the middle aged too.
I remember when United won their first premiership I was over the moon but in a short time the question moved on to retaining it.
As long as Klopp keeps his squad Liverpool must be favourites but anything can happen in a new season
Also I'm convinced United signed Odion Ighalo from China to bring the coronavirus to the UK in the hopes of starting a pandemic in the UK which would see the PL cancelled before Liverpool won the title.
Investing in a single gold mining company is really just gambling.
Enjoy it - it is fully deserved and this from a United supporter since 1955
Who could forget him cowering in his flat during the London riots having to change his breeks every time someone raised their voice in the street outside.
Off to the match shortly. Leicester were pisspoor against Man City away in Dec. Let's hope Rogers has a plan for today. We are short of Ndidi still, which is a worry.
Hopefully we can get the season finished before matches stop for Covid. I would be reluctant to go to Euros or Olympics though.
(hopefully
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1216365546955952129?s=20
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1231258648351035396?s=20
1% would indicate a life expectancy of 100 if our population sample was stable. Our population sample isn't stable though, we have a growing population and migration shifts our age profile too (we import the young and export the old).
So many factors exist to distort the sample.
If our population stops growing then we would end up with a higher death ratio even if life expectancy remains the same.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1231264628417662981?s=20
I tried looking at Wikipedia but the table isn't clear.
He keeps scoring seconds, but he polls badly in nationals and face-ups, and he's going to have a real money challenge post Super Tuesday and perhaps even before.
Tomorrow night might be my last chance to lay him at 7s and 8s.
Carlaw will still bugger it up somehow, mind.
If he can maintain second and Bloomberg doesn't take off I'd think Buttigieg has potential to get more donors.
Dies irae, dies illa. The day of wrath, that day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FLp3DuJ79c
I can’t decide what to do with Buttigeig either, he has spent a fortune in the early states to try and gain ‘momentum’, but it hasn’t really happened for him despite the results. NV is so tight that the 15% threshold could mean a couple of points either way makes a massive difference to delegate count. I think his current price at 9.2 is a sell.
When did the cohort of SNP MPs (the largest percentage of any single party from one of the constituent nations of the UK) ever have power in Westminster? Cherry probably exerted more influence in her case at the court of session than she ever did in the HoC.
Holyrood is where it's at for Scotland now, and there may be an unseemly rush for seats.
The SNP were in a position of being potential kingmakers last year but chose to go for an early election while Labour were still opposing it, aligned themselves (unilaterally) in a left alliance at the election but the left lost the election.
Had the left won then the SNP would be incredibly powerful kingmakers now and able to demand their referendum. But their side lost the election thanks to Labour.
It's either Wilder on a knockout or Fury on unanimous- I cannot see any other outcome.....
Hell freezes over kind of day.
First a corner kick hits the hands of the wall up in the air by a players head, that's clearly an unnatural position how is that not a penalty?
Then the Man City keeper basically does a late two fisted punch against the Leicester City striker. Had anyone other than the keeper done that it would have been a definite red and penalty, strikes me it should be the same.
The death rate is much much lower for 6 year olds as for 75 year olds, so the overall death rate is brought down to 1% by all those heatlhy 5 to 50 year olds the high death rate for the over 90's infleunces the meant death rate much less, because a lot of people die between 70 and 90.