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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited February 2020
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    So what do people think of Boris not turning up to the floods?

    I'm conflicted. Whthe election.

    I'm not conflicare? Not noticably.
    The point is that it demonstrates concern, is evidence of priority, offers at least a glimpse of accountability, and helps attract media attention toward the plight of the victims.

    As a local politician seeing and hearing things first hand rarely failed to push it up my agenda and enabled me to speak with more authority to others.
    I know the point, I simply disagree with it in most cases (there are certainly matters of sufficient import that an important person showing up will add some value). I don't think it does demonstrate concern (and as I noted it doesn't stop accusations they are not concerned),it is not evidence of priority (ditto, as actions demonstrate that, not a walkabout), and I don't see how it offers any accountability in the slightest. Media attention, possibly, except it's usually in reverse as it is media attention of an event which leads to demands that they show themselves.

    How soon must they show themselves to show it is not because someone accused them of not showing enough concern? Within a day? A week? What if there are issues in different places, which do they go to? At what level of problem should the PM drop other matters to show up? A flood? Of what size or duration? Riots? Probably. Would an international summit be important enough to not show up to a local matter? Preparing for a budget? A war? Does that mean they don't care?

    So no, I can't accept it demonstrates or is evidence of priority as you suggest. If the government response to the floods was well in hand then showing up would be a disruption and would in fact demonstrate tackling the issue is less of a priority than a photo op to show they care. Which in itself would show their concern at being seen to be concerned is higher than their concern about the issue itself. A valid political worry, but not demonstration of genuine concern.

    As for your last point, that's abolutely right that seeing things first hand helps push things up the agenda. There will be times when ministers and PMs will need that too. But there are a million and one things for a PM to keep oversight of, and they cannot see or hear all things firsthand - perhaps they shouldn't decide their priorities based on whatever is in front of their faces at any one moment.
  • eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    We're tired of experts.
    And there’s no such thing as society.
    There wont be if @eadric is right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited February 2020
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    Yes. Yes you are overreacting.
    Lol. Then I am happy to be in the same category as Dr Neil Ferguson, coronavirus expert at Imperial College London, as against the care home wage analysts of PB

    Incidentally, if it does kill 1-2% of humanity, that means the virus is exactly following the plot of US drama series The Leftovers, where 1 in 50 people suddenly and inexplicably vanish. The series documents the strange and profound effects this might have on those that remain. It’s quite good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leftovers_(TV_series)
    I was thinking of that series last night. I never got past the first few episodes (it seemed like they were overreacting) but thought it might be worth another go.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited February 2020
    Damn, just a few weeks ago it looked like we might get 4 different winners from the first 4 contests too, that would have been hilarious.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    kjh said:

    So what do people think of Boris not turning up to the floods?

    I'm conflicted. When these people do I get annoyed as they are just wasting people's time and doing sod all good, but then when they don't it looks like incompetence and not caring. I guess if there was some way of convincing people that your guys had it all under control and you didn't want to get in the way then that would be ok.

    At the moment the UK Govt response to the liner off Japan and the floods looks hopeless, but it might be they are doing all the right stuff, but the message on R4 this morning was they wanted to keep Boris under wraps to avoid public incidents aka as they did in the election.

    No easy answers - but Corbyn visiting Wales demanding Boris calls a cobra meeting and takes action is beyond parody when it is labour who are responsible here in Wales

    Corbyn is frankly yesterdays news and needs to go and attend his allotment having been an utter failure for the labour party.

    Mind you I see RLB wants him in her cabinet thereby condemning labour to the widerness
    No more bonkers than Starmer seemingly being prepared to have RLB and Burgon in his cabinet.
    Is he?
  • eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    We're tired of experts.
    And there’s no such thing as society.
    Either way, I'm sick and tired of this Project Fear from eadric.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Afternoon all :)

    Interesting to see the furore Johnson and his passport has engendered. It's smart politics.

    Johnson talks a lot about "bringing the country together" and in the immediate aftermath of his election victory he could afford to be magnanimous (victors usually can) so there were dollops of understanding and sympathy both for those who voted REMAIN and for those who didn't vote for him on 12/12.

    He has of course not to forget who gave him his 80 vote majority and that was the LEAVE vote (or the majority of it) so the occasional symbolic gesture to that group has to be expected.

    Gestures like this (as Trump has shown) have a secondary effect - not only do they galvanise your own side but in irritating the other side drives them to the extremes so Trump's blustering aids Sanders as the infuriated Democrats head for the extreme in response.

    The response to populist gesture politics is not to get mad or try to get even but let it go. Recognise it for what it is - an empty gesture. Populists need to be confronted on what they do not what they say or the insults. Johnson won't be beaten by insults or by running to extreme responses but by a careful measured forensic analysis of what he and his Government actually do and achieve.

    In that regard, Starmer may be the solid Labour option - uninspiring perhaps, dull even but it may be he can hold Johnson to account on what the Government does and not on the gestures and the insults. He won't inspire on day one but over time the critique will cut through especially if it comes to mirror the reality.
  • kle4 said:

    I wish there was more of a balance between admiring someone for being pretty consistent in their principles (though with a focus on what those principles are) versus in effect praising them for never changing their mind, which doesn't seem that great a thing for me.
    It's all pretty subjective though, my consistency & adherence to principle v. your* bloody minded intractability etc.

    It can throw up paradoxes, eg the almost universal PB Tory admiration for the Iron Lady's never turning-ness while many of the same folk have now divined that she made the journey from campaigner for the EEC & enthusiastic enabler of the single market to full blown Brexiteer. That much of this journey would have occurred during her dotage and post-mortem doesn't really seem to affect their certainty.

    *not you obvs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    So what do people think of Boris not turning up to the floods?

    I'm conflicted. When these people do I get annoyed as they are just wasting people's time and doing sod all good, but then when they don't it looks like incompetence and not caring. I guess if there was some way of convincing people that your guys had it all under control and you didn't want to get in the way then that would be ok.

    At the moment the UK Govt response to the liner off Japan and the floods looks hopeless, but it might be they are doing all the right stuff, but the message on R4 this morning was they wanted to keep Boris under wraps to avoid public incidents aka as they did in the election.

    I'm not conflicted in the slightest. Either the government response is working well in which case showing up achieves nothing, or it is not working well and sorting it out will not be aided by Boris getting his wellies on. Some people present in such areas ask where the PM is on these occasions, so there's theoretically some people who would feel better if he did, even if just so they could moan at him, but like I don't think, in most cases, that going walkabout is useful, and as a society we need to grow up from thinking it shows people don't care.

    I don't see that happening, since it happens no matter who or which party is in power, but the pointlessness of it is shown by further reactions - if someone does show up does that stop people saying the response is incompetent or they don't care? Not noticably.
    The point is that it demonstrates concern, is evidence of priority, offers at least a glimpse of accountability, and helps attract media attention toward the plight of the victims.

    As a local politician seeing and hearing things first hand rarely failed to push it up my agenda and enabled me to speak with more authority to others.
    He has priorities.

    He is in a perpetual COBRA meeting, planning for 400,000 dead Brits. But of course, he can't admit to it.....
  • Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    One little piece of history went unremarked yesterday. Our last military base in Germany has now been handed back.

    https://twitter.com/paul_lever/status/1230995902040596481?s=19

    It's not strange because that it was happening has been known for years, so while it is a notable moment, it has been noted. The precise date of it happening being noted would only be of interest to historians.
    I get your point but realistically what percentage of the nation has known of this date for years? Sub 1%? Certainly sub 10% so newsworthy imo. Plenty wouldnt even have known we even had active bases in Germany let alone the status of them closing down.
    I'd suggest its newsworthy and noteworthy in a similar way to the UK leaving Hong Kong was in 1997 even if the date had been set well in advance.
    That was more newsworthy (and indeed had global coverage) as it was the end of the Empire.
    Don't be a doomster/gloomster. You've still got Southern Thule.
    Don't forget we've also got Scotland as well.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229
    eadric said:

    The next Presidential Election: Agent Orange versus Captain Scarlet.

    It will be a monumental (!) showdown between two sides of masculine America -

    Tom Hanks vs Charlton Heston.
    McEnroe vs Connors.
    Basketball vs Baseball.
    The Kennedys vs Hoover and Nixon.
    Atticus Finch vs Al Capone.
    Seafood vs Steak.
    Johnny Cash vs Don Williams.
    Taxi Driver vs Top Gun.
    Moby Dick vs Utter Dick.
    Irony vs ...

    (that's enough ... Ed)
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 2020
    First sealed train in Italy over a suspected coronavirus passenger.

    We are officially into The Cassandra Crossing territory:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5ig-OeD3tI
    We are living through a real disaster movie.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    kle4 said:

    I wish there was more of a balance between admiring someone for being pretty consistent in their principles (though with a focus on what those principles are) versus in effect praising them for never changing their mind, which doesn't seem that great a thing for me.
    It's all pretty subjective though, my consistency & adherence to principle v. your* bloody minded intractability etc.

    It can throw up paradoxes, eg the almost universal PB Tory admiration for the Iron Lady's never turning-ness while many of the same folk have now divined that she made the journey from campaigner for the EEC & enthusiastic enabler of the single market to full blown Brexiteer. That much of this journey would have occurred during her dotage and post-mortem doesn't really seem to affect their certainty.

    *not you obvs.
    It's a fair point, and it will depend on the issue to a large degree I think. Constant political tergiversation or failure to hold any firm views will hardly inspire and some principles have a large enough degree of support to receive acclaim for never yielding on. But particular in periods of intense political upheaval or social/economic/technological change, no movement at all on, to pick a random example, housing policy, would be odd.
  • eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    We're tired of experts.
    And there’s no such thing as society.
    Either way, I'm sick and tired of this Project Fear from eadric.
    I have diagnosed the illness that infests PB (and, to be fair, many others)

    It’s called “normalcy bias”, or “the ostrich effect”. It’s because the overload of information slows down the brains of less intelligent people.

    “Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they have normally have functioned and therefore underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.[1]”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
    So, what prep should we be doing then?

    I have about a month's worth of food in my Brexit box. Water is a little low.

    How long will I need to hide?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2020
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    Yes. Yes you are overreacting.
    Lol. Then I am happy to be in the same category as Dr Neil Ferguson, coronavirus expert at Imperial College London, as against the care home wage analysts of PB

    Incidentally, if it does kill 1-2% of humanity, that means the virus is exactly following the plot of US drama series The Leftovers, where 1 in 50 people suddenly and inexplicably vanish. The series documents the strange and profound effects this might have on those that remain. It’s quite good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leftovers_(TV_series)
    You're not in the same category though. In that clip he keeps couching things with "could" and "potentially" which you don't. Then he says the 400,000 number is "not helpful" so what do you do? Come here screaming 400,000 which he just said was not helpful. Great job!

    Finally he says he'd rather be accused of being overreacting and you're overreacting to what he said so yes you definitely are overreacting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    It wasn't the optimum solution to the housing crisis
  • eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    We're tired of experts.
    And there’s no such thing as society.
    Either way, I'm sick and tired of this Project Fear from eadric.
    I have diagnosed the illness that infests PB (and, to be fair, many others)

    It’s called “normalcy bias”, or “the ostrich effect”. It’s because the overload of information slows down the brains of less intelligent people.

    “Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they have normally have functioned and therefore underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.[1]”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
    Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they have normally have functioned and therefore underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects.

    Ah a perfect example of Brexit voters.

    But I'm really keen to hear about your medical credentials.
  • kle4 said:

    Damn, just a few weeks ago it looked like we might get 4 different winners from the first 4 contests too, that would have been hilarious.
    Damn close to four different winners from Iowa.
  • eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    We're tired of experts.
    And there’s no such thing as society.
    Either way, I'm sick and tired of this Project Fear from eadric.
    I have diagnosed the illness that infests PB (and, to be fair, many others)

    It’s called “normalcy bias”, or “the ostrich effect”. It’s because the overload of information slows down the brains of less intelligent people.

    “Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they have normally have functioned and therefore underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.[1]”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
    Should govt officials and scientists have an ostrich approach to coronavirus? Absolutely not.

    Should everyone else? Absolutely.

    There is zero practical benefit to mass worrying at this stage, its impact would be negative to society rather than positive.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    And companies will be racing to start production domestically because of the Pandemic.
  • On topic if Sanders really turns out to be the nominee then I'll be going in heavily on Trump to not only win, but lump on Trump winning the popular vote.
  • IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    So what do people think of Boris not turning up to the floods?

    I'm conflicted. When these people do I get annoyed as they are just wasting people's time and doing sod all good, but then when they don't it looks like incompetence and not caring. I guess if there was some way of convincing people that your guys had it all under control and you didn't want to get in the way then that would be ok.

    At the moment the UK Govt response to the liner off Japan and the floods looks hopeless, but it might be they are doing all the right stuff, but the message on R4 this morning was they wanted to keep Boris under wraps to avoid public incidents aka as they did in the election.

    I'm not conflicted in the slightest. Either the government response is working well in which case showing up achieves nothing, or it is not working well and sorting it out will not be aided by Boris getting his wellies on. Some people present in such areas ask where the PM is on these occasions, so there's theoretically some people who would feel better if he did, even if just so they could moan at him, but like I don't think, in most cases, that going walkabout is useful, and as a society we need to grow up from thinking it shows people don't care.

    I don't see that happening, since it happens no matter who or which party is in power, but the pointlessness of it is shown by further reactions - if someone does show up does that stop people saying the response is incompetent or they don't care? Not noticably.
    The point is that it demonstrates concern, is evidence of priority, offers at least a glimpse of accountability, and helps attract media attention toward the plight of the victims.

    As a local politician seeing and hearing things first hand rarely failed to push it up my agenda and enabled me to speak with more authority to others.
    He has priorities.

    He is in a perpetual COBRA meeting, planning for 400,000 dead Brits. But of course, he can't admit to it.....
    Borris didn't go to Fishlake in November either, but the Tories still recorded a 13.7% local swing in their favour less than a month later.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    We're tired of experts.
    And there’s no such thing as society.
    Either way, I'm sick and tired of this Project Fear from eadric.
    I have diagnosed the illness that infests PB (and, to be fair, many others)

    It’s called “normalcy bias”, or “the ostrich effect”. It’s because the overload of information slows down the brains of less intelligent people.

    “Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they have normally have functioned and therefore underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.[1]”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
    Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they have normally have functioned and therefore underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects.

    Ah a perfect example of Brexit voters.

    But I'm really keen to hear about your medical credentials.
    Normalcy bias tells me that Sean will be hyperventilating and flip-flopping about on whatever is the issue of concern of the day.
  • O/T I miss Poch.... a lot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Foxy said:

    One little piece of history went unremarked yesterday. Our last military base in Germany has now been handed back.

    https://twitter.com/paul_lever/status/1230995902040596481?s=19

    Wow, that is a surprise. I spent 2 years of my childhood in Fallingbostal which at that time had 3 British regiments including a tank regiment and a heavy artillery regiment along with huge REME workshops and sundry minor units, visiting paras etc. And that was only one of the bases of the BAOR which had its own radio station etc. Changed days indeed.
  • eadric said:


    I have diagnosed the illness that infests PB (and, to be fair, many others)

    It’s called “normalcy bias”, or “the ostrich effect”. It’s because the overload of information slows down the brains of less intelligent people.

    “Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they have normally have functioned and therefore underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare themselves for disasters, and on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. About 70% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.[1]”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

    Something tells me you skimmed over the section about overreacting on your link.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    edited February 2020

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    So what do people think of Boris not turning up to the floods?

    I'm conflicted. When these people do I get annoyed as they are just wasting people's time and doing sod all good, but then when they don't it looks like incompetence and not caring. I guess if there was some way of convincing people that your guys had it all under control and you didn't want to get in the way then that would be ok.

    At the moment the UK Govt response to the liner off Japan and the floods looks hopeless, but it might be they are doing all the right stuff, but the message on R4 this morning was they wanted to keep Boris under wraps to avoid public incidents aka as they did in the election.

    I'm not conflicted in the slightest. Either the government response is working well in which case showing up achieves nothing, or it is not working well and sorting it out will not be aided by Boris getting his wellies on. Some people present in such areas ask where the PM is on these occasions, so there's theoretically some people who would feel better if he did, even if just so they could moan at him, but like I don't think, in most cases, that going walkabout is useful, and as a society we need to grow up from thinking it shows people don't care.

    I don't see that happening, since it happens no matter who or which party is in power, but the pointlessness of it is shown by further reactions - if someone does show up does that stop people saying the response is incompetent or they don't care? Not noticably.
    The point is that it demonstrates concern, is evidence of priority, offers at least a glimpse of accountability, and helps attract media attention toward the plight of the victims.

    As a local politician seeing and hearing things first hand rarely failed to push it up my agenda and enabled me to speak with more authority to others.
    He has priorities.

    He is in a perpetual COBRA meeting, planning for 400,000 dead Brits. But of course, he can't admit to it.....
    Borris didn't go to Fishlake in November either, but the Tories still recorded a 13.7% local swing in their favour less than a month later.
    But Boris was booed in Doncaster in September.

    Which proved that the Conservatives were hated throughout the North.

    We were told that this was so by people who had spent an afternoon in Manchester a few years earlier.
  • If Sanders does win will that make November Orange Man vs Red Man ?
  • eadric said:

    On topic if Sanders really turns out to be the nominee then I'll be going in heavily on Trump to not only win, but lump on Trump winning the popular vote.

    I don’t want to sound obsessive (heaven forbid), but you should maybe factor in the impact of the virus on your expectations of a Trump victory. Reasons given here:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/21/coronavirus-trump-white-house-116650
    It's complicated.

    Against Trump: It could crash the economy
    For Trump: He can make a big thing about keeping out foreigners
    Against Trump: He will probably bollocks up the response
    For Trump: He can quarantine people in Dem areas on election day
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 2020
    Democrats are in danger of developing an African Am. male problem:
    https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/1230870575968636928
    According to the WSJ/NBC phone poll up to 29% of Afr.Am men will vote for Trump, but that's against Buttigieg.

    Buttigieg will definitely break the fragile coalition between rich people and minorities.
  • You've been telling us that for 44 months.

    And what have you got to show for it beyond a bog roll stockpile ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    edited February 2020

    O/T I miss Poch.... a lot.

    Leave Mourinho alone, he's playing without Kane & Son, he's got a tightwad Chairman who wants to do things on the cheap.

    He's also putting that thug Alli in his place as well.

    I hope Mourinho is Spurs manager as long as Ole is United manager.

    Remember that performance against City a few weeks ago.
  • Mourinho working hard to keep Chelsea in the top 4.
  • On topic if Sanders really turns out to be the nominee then I'll be going in heavily on Trump to not only win, but lump on Trump winning the popular vote.

    Safer than a bank frankly.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    Yes. Yes you are overreacting.
    Lol. Then I am happy to be in the same category as Dr Neil Ferguson, coronavirus expert at Imperial College London, as against the care home wage analysts of PB

    Incidentally, if it does kill 1-2% of humanity, that means the virus is exactly following the plot of US drama series The Leftovers, where 1 in 50 people suddenly and inexplicably vanish. The series documents the strange and profound effects this might have on those that remain. It’s quite good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leftovers_(TV_series)
    Neil is not a “coronavirus expert”

    He’s a theoretical epidemiologist. He’s been very active on Twitter since the beginning making silly statements and attracting attention
  • Charles said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    Yes. Yes you are overreacting.
    Lol. Then I am happy to be in the same category as Dr Neil Ferguson, coronavirus expert at Imperial College London, as against the care home wage analysts of PB

    Incidentally, if it does kill 1-2% of humanity, that means the virus is exactly following the plot of US drama series The Leftovers, where 1 in 50 people suddenly and inexplicably vanish. The series documents the strange and profound effects this might have on those that remain. It’s quite good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leftovers_(TV_series)
    Neil is not a “coronavirus expert”

    He’s a theoretical epidemiologist. He’s been very active on Twitter since the beginning making silly statements and attracting attention
    Almost as if panicking like a headless chicken attracts more attention than being calm and rational.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    edited February 2020
    Great news PBers, there'll be a thread on AV going up on Monday morning.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    edited February 2020
    speedy2 said:

    Democrats are in danger of developing an African Am. male problem:
    https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/1230870575968636928
    According to the WSJ/NBC phone poll up to 29% of Afr.Am men will vote for Trump, but that's against Buttigieg.

    Buttigieg will definitely break the fragile coalition between rich people and minorities.

    2016 was

    Black Men 80:13
    Black Women 94:4

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics

    The Latino vote shares would be interesting to see.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    What is the relative coronavirus mortality rate for Brexiters vs Remainers?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    DavidL said:



    Wow, that is a surprise. I spent 2 years of my childhood in Fallingbostal which at that time had 3 British regiments including a tank regiment and a heavy artillery regiment along with huge REME workshops and sundry minor units, visiting paras etc. And that was only one of the bases of the BAOR which had its own radio station etc. Changed days indeed.

    Yes, my best friend at Uni went to Cologne to study for a year and I visited him a couple of times. He used to listen to "Nankers" on BAOR radio who seemed like a typical radio DJ.

    I didn't realise that West Germany paid all the bills for the BAOR presence and a united Germany carried on paying for British troops to be stationed well into the 1990s and beyond (cheaper having British troops in Germany than having to feed, clothe and house them in the UK)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    So what do people think of Boris not turning up to the floods?

    I'm conflicted. When these people do I get annoyed as they are just wasting people's time and doing sod all good, but then when they don't it looks like incompetence and not caring. I guess if there was some way of convincing people that your guys had it all under control and you didn't want to get in the way then that would be ok.

    At the moment the UK Govt response to the liner off Japan and the floods looks hopeless, but it might be they are doing all the right stuff, but the message on R4 this morning was they wanted to keep Boris under wraps to avoid public incidents aka as they did in the election.

    I'm not conflicted in the slightest. Either the government response is working well in which case showing up achieves nothing, or it is not working well and sorting it out will not be aided by Boris getting his wellies on. Some people present in such areas ask where the PM is on these occasions, so there's theoretically some people who would feel better if he did, even if just so they could moan at him, but like I don't think, in most cases, that going walkabout is useful, and as a society we need to grow up from thinking it shows people don't care.

    I don't see that happening, since it happens no matter who or which party is in power, but the pointlessness of it is shown by further reactions - if someone does show up does that stop people saying the response is incompetent or they don't care? Not noticably.
    The point is that it demonstrates concern, is evidence of priority, offers at least a glimpse of accountability, and helps attract media attention toward the plight of the victims.

    As a local politician seeing and hearing things first hand rarely failed to push it up my agenda and enabled me to speak with more authority to others.
    He has priorities.

    He is in a perpetual COBRA meeting, planning for 400,000 dead Brits. But of course, he can't admit to it.....
    The answer from the Floods minister on the radio was spot on

    “We have Cabinet Government. I am responsible for dealing with the floods and have been out talking to people and making sure they get the help they need. I have been keeping the Prime Minister fully informed so he is completely aware of what we are doing”
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    The scary thing about the coronavirus is not China, because containment actually seems to be working.

    It’s Japan, Korea, Italy.

    None of these countries seem institutionally or culturally well prepared for a pandemic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    What is the relative coronavirus mortality rate for Brexiters vs Remainers?

    Ironically, scientists subsequently discovered the antidote contained in gammon....
  • Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    So what do people think of Boris not turning up to the floods?

    I'm conflicted. When these people do I get annoyed as they are just wasting people's time and doing sod all good, but then when they don't it looks like incompetence and not caring. I guess if there was some way of convincing people that your guys had it all under control and you didn't want to get in the way then that would be ok.

    At the moment the UK Govt response to the liner off Japan and the floods looks hopeless, but it might be they are doing all the right stuff, but the message on R4 this morning was they wanted to keep Boris under wraps to avoid public incidents aka as they did in the election.

    I'm not conflicted in the slightest. Either the government response is working well in which case showing up achieves nothing, or it is not working well and sorting it out will not be aided by Boris getting his wellies on. Some people present in such areas ask where the PM is on these occasions, so there's theoretically some people who would feel better if he did, even if just so they could moan at him, but like I don't think, in most cases, that going walkabout is useful, and as a society we need to grow up from thinking it shows people don't care.

    I don't see that happening, since it happens no matter who or which party is in power, but the pointlessness of it is shown by further reactions - if someone does show up does that stop people saying the response is incompetent or they don't care? Not noticably.
    The point is that it demonstrates concern, is evidence of priority, offers at least a glimpse of accountability, and helps attract media attention toward the plight of the victims.

    As a local politician seeing and hearing things first hand rarely failed to push it up my agenda and enabled me to speak with more authority to others.
    He has priorities.

    He is in a perpetual COBRA meeting, planning for 400,000 dead Brits. But of course, he can't admit to it.....
    The answer from the Floods minister on the radio was spot on

    “We have Cabinet Government. I am responsible for dealing with the floods and have been out talking to people and making sure they get the help they need. I have been keeping the Prime Minister fully informed so he is completely aware of what we are doing”
    "We have Cabinet Government"

    Only when it suits Johnson.
  • DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    One little piece of history went unremarked yesterday. Our last military base in Germany has now been handed back.

    https://twitter.com/paul_lever/status/1230995902040596481?s=19

    Wow, that is a surprise. I spent 2 years of my childhood in Fallingbostal which at that time had 3 British regiments including a tank regiment and a heavy artillery regiment along with huge REME workshops and sundry minor units, visiting paras etc. And that was only one of the bases of the BAOR which had its own radio station etc. Changed days indeed.
    Its presumably why Germany is the third highest country for non-UK births among people living in Scotland.

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/population-estimates/pop-cob-18/pop-cob-nat-18-publication.pdf
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    Yes. Yes you are overreacting.
    Lol. Then I am happy to be in the same category as Dr Neil Ferguson, coronavirus expert at Imperial College London, as against the care home wage analysts of PB

    Incidentally, if it does kill 1-2% of humanity, that means the virus is exactly following the plot of US drama series The Leftovers, where 1 in 50 people suddenly and inexplicably vanish. The series documents the strange and profound effects this might have on those that remain. It’s quite good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leftovers_(TV_series)
    Neil is not a “coronavirus expert”

    He’s a theoretical epidemiologist. He’s been very active on Twitter since the beginning making silly statements and attracting attention
    You are a sort of amateur banker. Here is Neil Ferguson:

    “Neil Morris Ferguson OBE FMedSci (born 1968), is a professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the epidemiology of infectious disease spread in humans and animals. He is the director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Vice-Dean for Academic Development in the Faculty of Medicine, all at Imperial College, London.

    Ferguson was appointed OBE in 2002 for his work modelling the 2001 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth outbreak. He used mathematical modelling to provide data on several disease outbreaks including the swine flu outbreak in 2009 in the UK and the Western African Ebola virus epidemic in 2016. His work has also included research on mosquito-borne diseases including zika, yellow fever, dengue and malaria.

    In February 2020, during the COVID-2019 outbreak which began in China, using statistical models, Ferguson and his team estimated that the reported cases of the new coronavirus are significantly underestimated in China.”

    Still, who needs experts, eh?
    We do need experts.

    People who first decided that Project Fear might be real on walking home from the polling station, not so much.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 2020

    eadric said:

    On topic if Sanders really turns out to be the nominee then I'll be going in heavily on Trump to not only win, but lump on Trump winning the popular vote.

    I don’t want to sound obsessive (heaven forbid), but you should maybe factor in the impact of the virus on your expectations of a Trump victory. Reasons given here:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/21/coronavirus-trump-white-house-116650
    It's complicated.

    Against Trump: It could crash the economy
    For Trump: He can make a big thing about keeping out foreigners
    Against Trump: He will probably bollocks up the response
    For Trump: He can quarantine people in Dem areas on election day
    No.3 has already happened.
    No.1 is in the process of happening.
    No.2 is in the process of happening.
    No.4 will be difficult because of the constitution.

    And I will add a No.5: Massive collapse in trust towards government institutions.

    But there unknowns, the massive crash in world trade and transportation would mean that everything will have to be made locally, we don't know the precice economic impact.

    It will be an accelerant of trends towards Nationalism, Protectionism and Xenophobia that already exist.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Charles said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    Yes. Yes you are overreacting.
    Lol. Then I am happy to be in the same category as Dr Neil Ferguson, coronavirus expert at Imperial College London, as against the care home wage analysts of PB

    Incidentally, if it does kill 1-2% of humanity, that means the virus is exactly following the plot of US drama series The Leftovers, where 1 in 50 people suddenly and inexplicably vanish. The series documents the strange and profound effects this might have on those that remain. It’s quite good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leftovers_(TV_series)
    Neil is not a “coronavirus expert”

    He’s a theoretical epidemiologist. He’s been very active on Twitter since the beginning making silly statements and attracting attention
    Let me guess, he’s a cousin of your fifth godmother-twice-removed, and thus you are well qualified to pooh-pooh his opinions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    @Barnesian

    Your passport was blue. But the dye darkens over time, so it now looks black. My mother’s passport from the 1960s is similar. The new passport is a much lighter blue than the old one ever was.

    https://www.civilserviceworld.com/articles/news/home-office-insists-iconic-blue-uk-passports-are-not-black
  • You've been telling us that for 44 months.

    And what have you got to show for it beyond a bog roll stockpile ?
    :lol:

    You are forgetting the dozens of tins of baked beans.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    Yes. Yes you are overreacting.
    Lol. Then I am happy to be in the same category as Dr Neil Ferguson, coronavirus expert at Imperial College London, as against the care home wage analysts of PB

    Incidentally, if it does kill 1-2% of humanity, that means the virus is exactly following the plot of US drama series The Leftovers, where 1 in 50 people suddenly and inexplicably vanish. The series documents the strange and profound effects this might have on those that remain. It’s quite good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leftovers_(TV_series)
    Neil is not a “coronavirus expert”

    He’s a theoretical epidemiologist. He’s been very active on Twitter since the beginning making silly statements and attracting attention
    Almost as if panicking like a headless chicken attracts more attention than being calm and rational.
    His personal interest is best served by becoming the media go to guy.

    This is the person you should listen to (this particular statement is old but it was the first I pulled up with google). I’ll worry when he gets worried.

    https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2020/coronavirus-comment-expert-reaction-peter-piot
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Great news PBers, there'll be a thread on AV going up on Monday morning.

    Alternative Viruses: which one makes @eadric panic more?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited February 2020

    The scary thing about the coronavirus is not China, because containment actually seems to be working.

    It’s Japan, Korea, Italy.

    None of these countries seem institutionally or culturally well prepared for a pandemic.

    As I said this morning, speaking to my Thai friend yesterday, there is growing panic at home. Universities cancelling field trips, people cancelling travel plans, lots of people staying indoors or wearing masks outside. Whatever the future for the virus I suggest the world's stock markets are a big sell right now.
  • speedy2 said:


    No.4 will be difficult because of the constitution.

    It turns out he can mostly just not worry about that, a concerted effort to make him follow it has to go through the Senate.
  • O/T I miss Poch.... a lot.

    Leave Mourinho alone, he's playing without Kane & Son, he's got a tightwad Chairman who wants to do things on the cheap.

    He's also putting that thug Alli in his place as well.

    I hope Mourinho is Spurs manager as long as Ole is United manager.

    Remember that performance against City a few weeks ago.
    I was there for that too - the luckiest win ever, well until we then beat Saints in the FA Cup replay.

    Levy is the main culprit, too mean to pay for Llorente to sit on the bench in case Kane and Son both injured means likely to cost tens of millions in lost revenue and CL kudos next year.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eadric said:

    Charles said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    Yes. Yes you are overreacting.
    Lol. Then I am happy to be in the same category as Dr Neil Ferguson, coronavirus expert at Imperial College London, as against the care home wage analysts of PB

    Incidentally, if it does kill 1-2% of humanity, that means the virus is exactly following the plot of US drama series The Leftovers, where 1 in 50 people suddenly and inexplicably vanish. The series documents the strange and profound effects this might have on those that remain. It’s quite good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leftovers_(TV_series)
    Neil is not a “coronavirus expert”

    He’s a theoretical epidemiologist. He’s been very active on Twitter since the beginning making silly statements and attracting attention
    You are a sort of amateur banker. Here is Neil Ferguson:

    “Neil Morris Ferguson OBE FMedSci (born 1968), is a professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the epidemiology of infectious disease spread in humans and animals. He is the director of the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Vice-Dean for Academic Development in the Faculty of Medicine, all at Imperial College, London.

    Ferguson was appointed OBE in 2002 for his work modelling the 2001 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth outbreak. He used mathematical modelling to provide data on several disease outbreaks including the swine flu outbreak in 2009 in the UK and the Western African Ebola virus epidemic in 2016. His work has also included research on mosquito-borne diseases including zika, yellow fever, dengue and malaria.

    In February 2020, during the COVID-2019 outbreak which began in China, using statistical models, Ferguson and his team estimated that the reported cases of the new coronavirus are significantly underestimated in China.”

    Still, who needs experts, eh?
    I know Neil and have been following him on twitter since December. He’s a statistician not a real world guy.

  • You've been telling us that for 44 months.

    And what have you got to show for it beyond a bog roll stockpile ?
    :lol:

    You are forgetting the dozens of tins of baked beans.
    You'll need them for when the coronovirus lockdown happens :wink:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    So what do people think of Boris not turning up to the floods?

    I'm conflicted. When these people do I get annoyed as they are just wasting people's time and doing sod all good, but then when they don't it looks like incompetence and not caring. I guess if there was some way of convincing people that your guys had it all under control and you didn't want to get in the way then that would be ok.

    At the moment the UK Govt response to the liner off Japan and the floods looks hopeless, but it might be they are doing all the right stuff, but the message on R4 this morning was they wanted to keep Boris under wraps to avoid public incidents aka as they did in the election.

    I'm not conflicted in the slightest. Either the government response is working well in which case showing up achieves nothing, or it is not working well and sorting it out will not be aided by Boris getting his wellies on. Some people present in such areas ask where the PM is on these occasions, so there's theoretically some people who would feel better if he did, even if just so they could moan at him, but like I don't think, in most cases, that going walkabout is useful, and as a society we need to grow up from thinking it shows people don't care.

    I don't see that happening, since it happens no matter who or which party is in power, but the pointlessness of it is shown by further reactions - if someone does show up does that stop people saying the response is incompetent or they don't care? Not noticably.
    The point is that it demonstrates concern, is evidence of priority, offers at least a glimpse of accountability, and helps attract media attention toward the plight of the victims.

    As a local politician seeing and hearing things first hand rarely failed to push it up my agenda and enabled me to speak with more authority to others.
    He has priorities.

    He is in a perpetual COBRA meeting, planning for 400,000 dead Brits. But of course, he can't admit to it.....
    The answer from the Floods minister on the radio was spot on

    “We have Cabinet Government. I am responsible for dealing with the floods and have been out talking to people and making sure they get the help they need. I have been keeping the Prime Minister fully informed so he is completely aware of what we are doing”
    But....but....but.....

    #BlameBorisForEverything.......
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    So what do people think of Boris not turning up to the floods?

    I'm conflicted. When these people do I get annoyed as they are just wasting people's time and doing sod all good, but then when they don't it looks like incompetence and not caring. I guess if there was some way of convincing people that your guys had it all under control and you didn't want to get in the way then that would be ok.

    At the moment the UK Govt response to the liner off Japan and the floods looks hopeless, but it might be they are doing all the right stuff, but the message on R4 this morning was they wanted to keep Boris under wraps to avoid public incidents aka as they did in the election.

    I'm not conflicted in the slightest. Either the government response is working well in which case showing up achieves nothing, or it is not working well and sorting it out will not be aided by Boris getting his wellies on. Some people present in such areas ask where the PM is on these occasions, so there's theoretically some people who would feel better if he did, even if just so they could moan at him, but like I don't think, in most cases, that going walkabout is useful, and as a society we need to grow up from thinking it shows people don't care.

    I don't see that happening, since it happens no matter who or which party is in power, but the pointlessness of it is shown by further reactions - if someone does show up does that stop people saying the response is incompetent or they don't care? Not noticably.
    The point is that it demonstrates concern, is evidence of priority, offers at least a glimpse of accountability, and helps attract media attention toward the plight of the victims.

    As a local politician seeing and hearing things first hand rarely failed to push it up my agenda and enabled me to speak with more authority to others.
    He has priorities.

    He is in a perpetual COBRA meeting, planning for 400,000 dead Brits. But of course, he can't admit to it.....
    The answer from the Floods minister on the radio was spot on

    “We have Cabinet Government. I am responsible for dealing with the floods and have been out talking to people and making sure they get the help they need. I have been keeping the Prime Minister fully informed so he is completely aware of what we are doing”
    "We have Cabinet Government"

    Only when it suits Johnson.
    When it suits him, we also have Vanishing Cabinet government. He sends them to speak to Cummings and they are never heard of again.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    Yes. Yes you are overreacting.
    Lol. Then I am happy to be in the same category as Dr Neil Ferguson, coronavirus expert at Imperial College London, as against the care home wage analysts of PB

    Incidentally, if it does kill 1-2% of humanity, that means the virus is exactly following the plot of US drama series The Leftovers, where 1 in 50 people suddenly and inexplicably vanish. The series documents the strange and profound effects this might have on those that remain. It’s quite good.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Leftovers_(TV_series)
    Neil is not a “coronavirus expert”

    He’s a theoretical epidemiologist. He’s been very active on Twitter since the beginning making silly statements and attracting attention
    Let me guess, he’s a cousin of your fifth godmother-twice-removed, and thus you are well qualified to pooh-pooh his opinions.
    No, but I used to be a non-executive at the London School if Hygiene and Tropical Medicine which specialises in this sort of thing.

  • speedy2 said:


    No.4 will be difficult because of the constitution.

    It turns out he can mostly just not worry about that, a concerted effort to make him follow it has to go through the Senate.
    As first demonstrated by Andrew Jackson.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited February 2020
    speedy2 said:

    eadric said:

    On topic if Sanders really turns out to be the nominee then I'll be going in heavily on Trump to not only win, but lump on Trump winning the popular vote.

    I don’t want to sound obsessive (heaven forbid), but you should maybe factor in the impact of the virus on your expectations of a Trump victory. Reasons given here:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/21/coronavirus-trump-white-house-116650
    It's complicated.

    Against Trump: It could crash the economy
    For Trump: He can make a big thing about keeping out foreigners
    Against Trump: He will probably bollocks up the response
    For Trump: He can quarantine people in Dem areas on election day
    No.3 has already happened.
    No.1 is in the process of happening.
    No.2 is in the process of happening.
    No.4 will be difficult because of the constitution.
    No. 4 will happen anyway since Dem-controlled cities are going to be worst affected.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?

    Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ydoethur said:

    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?

    Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
    Being there isn't the risk, it's the getting there
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    ydoethur said:


    Only when it suits Johnson.

    When it suits him, we also have Vanishing Cabinet government. He sends them to speak to Cummings and they are never heard of again.
    Knowing everything that we know about Boris, Cummings is the effective PM at this stage. Boris is just the front man.

    That’s not to say he (Cummings) always gets his way, but neither did Blair and Thatcher in their pomp.

    No other Cabinet Minister has a whit of power, save possibly Gove, and only then as a sort of backboy influencer since he lacks a big Department.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    The scary thing about the coronavirus is not China, because containment actually seems to be working.

    It’s Japan, Korea, Italy.

    None of these countries seem institutionally or culturally well prepared for a pandemic.

    As I said this morning, speaking to my Thai friend yesterday, there is growing panic at home. Universities cancelling field trips, people cancelling travel plans, lots of people staying indoors or wearing masks outside. Whatever the future for the virus I suggest the world's stock markets are a big sell right now.
    Also: short Asian Currencies.

    And yes on Thailand. I have a good friend who owns a load of restaurant chains in Bangkok, Phuket etc. She is not happy.
    Buy gold. Already on the up
  • eadric said:

    The scary thing about the coronavirus is not China, because containment actually seems to be working.

    It’s Japan, Korea, Italy.

    None of these countries seem institutionally or culturally well prepared for a pandemic.

    Arguably, it’s not even working in China, despite heroic and draconian quarantine.

    https://twitter.com/jamesriceshow/status/1231195393372848130?s=21
    And in other news:

    THE two people who were taken ill with coronavirus while staying at a York aparthotel have left hospital and thanked NHS staff for their care and support.

    The pair, believed to be Chinese nationals, were taken to hospital by paramedics in hazmat suits from the StayCity aparthotel at the end of last month.


    https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/18244553.york-coronavirus-patients-leave-hospital/

    News has to be relevant to people for them to take an interest.

    Some people dying in a Chinese city people have never heard of isn't enough.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    speedy2 said:

    Democrats are in danger of developing an African Am. male problem:
    https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/1230870575968636928
    According to the WSJ/NBC phone poll up to 29% of Afr.Am men will vote for Trump, but that's against Buttigieg.

    Buttigieg will definitely break the fragile coalition between rich people and minorities.

    2016 was

    Black Men 80:13
    Black Women 94:4

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics

    The Latino vote shares would be interesting to see.
    Trump won Arizona in 2016 thanks to the male Hispanic vote, he got a massive increase in relation to Romney.
    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AZ/president/#exit-polls

    Trump got 42%, Romney 27%
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    edited February 2020
    speedy2 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Democrats are in danger of developing an African Am. male problem:
    https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/1230870575968636928
    According to the WSJ/NBC phone poll up to 29% of Afr.Am men will vote for Trump, but that's against Buttigieg.

    Buttigieg will definitely break the fragile coalition between rich people and minorities.

    2016 was

    Black Men 80:13
    Black Women 94:4

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics

    The Latino vote shares would be interesting to see.
    Trump won Arizona in 2016 thanks to the male Hispanic vote, he got a massive increase in relation to Romney.
    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AZ/president/#exit-polls

    Trump got 42%, Romney 27%
    How did that compare with McCain in 2008 or Bush Jnr ?

    I wonder if such an increase was caused by Catholic Hispanics not liking the Mormon Romney.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Latest polls are showing a swing to Trump in Wisconsin but against him in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    The scary thing about the coronavirus is not China, because containment actually seems to be working.

    It’s Japan, Korea, Italy.

    None of these countries seem institutionally or culturally well prepared for a pandemic.

    As I said this morning, speaking to my Thai friend yesterday, there is growing panic at home. Universities cancelling field trips, people cancelling travel plans, lots of people staying indoors or wearing masks outside. Whatever the future for the virus I suggest the world's stock markets are a big sell right now.
    Also: short Asian Currencies.

    And yes on Thailand. I have a good friend who owns a load of restaurant chains in Bangkok, Phuket etc. She is not happy.
    Buy gold. Already on the up
    I have a stake in an Egyptian goldmine (CEY) in my ISA and it is up 72% and rising.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    ydoethur said:


    Only when it suits Johnson.

    When it suits him, we also have Vanishing Cabinet government. He sends them to speak to Cummings and they are never heard of again.
    Knowing everything that we know about Boris, Cummings is the effective PM at this stage. Boris is just the front man.

    That’s not to say he (Cummings) always gets his way, but neither did Blair and Thatcher in their pomp.

    No other Cabinet Minister has a whit of power, save possibly Gove, and only then as a sort of backboy influencer since he lacks a big Department.
    Apparently Cummings doesn’t even have top level security clearance so I think his absolute influence is probably exaggerated.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    speedy2 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Democrats are in danger of developing an African Am. male problem:
    https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/1230870575968636928
    According to the WSJ/NBC phone poll up to 29% of Afr.Am men will vote for Trump, but that's against Buttigieg.

    Buttigieg will definitely break the fragile coalition between rich people and minorities.

    2016 was

    Black Men 80:13
    Black Women 94:4

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics

    The Latino vote shares would be interesting to see.
    Trump won Arizona in 2016 thanks to the male Hispanic vote, he got a massive increase in relation to Romney.
    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AZ/president/#exit-polls

    Trump got 42%, Romney 27%
    How did that compare with McCain in 2008 or Bush Jnr ?

    I wonder if such an increase was caused by Catholic Hispanics not liking the Mormon Romney.
    You can't compare it with McCain, we has the local Senator.
    In 2004 they didn't do a breakdown by race in Arizona.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    ydoethur said:

    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?

    Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
    The issue will be insurance cover. Maybe buy it now - before it gets too expensive/not covered by the policy.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019

    Jonathan said:



    I will continue to advocate returning to a self-confident, brave and forward looking state, rather than the shadow of our former selves that we are today. Things have changed radically for the worse, they can change again but we will have to work for it.

    Maay I suggest changing your alliegance to the Commonwealth then? It is rather more fit for purpose than the EU "state"......
    Do you actually believe this twaddle?

    Or are you trying to make us characterise all Leavers as imperial nostalgists, when you are in fact the useful idiots of the forces of authoritarianism?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Latest polls are showing a swing to Trump in Wisconsin but against him in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

    Quinnipiac is a weird pollster, I don't think they weigh by education so they always post unusual numbers many years now.

    If Trump is winning Wisconsin by 11 he will also win all other Mid-Western states, even Illinois will be close.

    If Trump is losing Pennsylvania by 8 he will also lose all other Mid-Western states, even Iowa will be close.

    Instead just use the average in all 3 states, it's Trump -1 or something.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Mango said:

    Jonathan said:



    I will continue to advocate returning to a self-confident, brave and forward looking state, rather than the shadow of our former selves that we are today. Things have changed radically for the worse, they can change again but we will have to work for it.

    Maay I suggest changing your alliegance to the Commonwealth then? It is rather more fit for purpose than the EU "state"......
    Do you actually believe this twaddle?

    Or are you trying to make us characterise all Leavers as imperial nostalgists, when you are in fact the useful idiots of the forces of authoritarianism?
    Yes.
  • Good afternoon, my fellow passport-wielding Britons.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:



    Wow, that is a surprise. I spent 2 years of my childhood in Fallingbostal which at that time had 3 British regiments including a tank regiment and a heavy artillery regiment along with huge REME workshops and sundry minor units, visiting paras etc. And that was only one of the bases of the BAOR which had its own radio station etc. Changed days indeed.

    Yes, my best friend at Uni went to Cologne to study for a year and I visited him a couple of times. He used to listen to "Nankers" on BAOR radio who seemed like a typical radio DJ.

    I didn't realise that West Germany paid all the bills for the BAOR presence and a united Germany carried on paying for British troops to be stationed well into the 1990s and beyond (cheaper having British troops in Germany than having to feed, clothe and house them in the UK)
    The shrinkage in the size of the British army is not unconnected with the end of these arrangements. My main recollection of BAOR radio is Tie a yellow ribbon which was played almost endlessly as unit after unit returned from their tours in NI, not always intact. Still chokes me up a bit tbh.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?

    No, at least on the expo, I wouldn't go anywhere that has a huge number of people travelling in from all over the world.

    Skiing should be fine.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    What is the relative coronavirus mortality rate for Brexiters vs Remainers?

    Ironically, scientists subsequently discovered the antidote contained in gammon....
    Eat the rich
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    ydoethur said:

    @Barnesian

    Your passport was blue. But the dye darkens over time, so it now looks black. My mother’s passport from the 1960s is similar. The new passport is a much lighter blue than the old one ever was.

    https://www.civilserviceworld.com/articles/news/home-office-insists-iconic-blue-uk-passports-are-not-black

    Shouldn’t the model be to use the exact same shade as Canada? It looks to me as if the Canadians simply retained the colour of the then British passports when they started issuing their own.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    One little piece of history went unremarked yesterday. Our last military base in Germany has now been handed back.

    https://twitter.com/paul_lever/status/1230995902040596481?s=19

    Wow, that is a surprise. I spent 2 years of my childhood in Fallingbostal which at that time had 3 British regiments including a tank regiment and a heavy artillery regiment along with huge REME workshops and sundry minor units, visiting paras etc. And that was only one of the bases of the BAOR which had its own radio station etc. Changed days indeed.
    Its presumably why Germany is the third highest country for non-UK births among people living in Scotland.

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files/statistics/population-estimates/pop-cob-18/pop-cob-nat-18-publication.pdf
    My sister was born in Hanover. Until she was 18 she was entitled to German citizenship. My dad was in Derry at the time. At her wedding he told the story of a message coming over the radio net for Captain L, "its a Golf, Indigo, Roma, Lima, repeat its..."
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,483

    eadric said:

    Sandpit said:

    Coronavirus - Two Iranians tested positive in UAE.

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/uae-confirms-two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-bringing-total-to-13-1.982752

    Now 13 confirmed cases in UAE, and 28 in Iran including five fatalities.

    IMO this is now way out of control in Iran.

    “Potentially 400,000 deaths in the UK”

    “Are we over-reacting?”

    https://twitter.com/zachary31411891/status/1228548058713120768?s=21
    We're tired of experts.
    And there’s no such thing as society.
    Either way, I'm sick and tired of this Project Fear from eadric.
    You want to watch that - could be early signs of Corona
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?

    Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
    This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.

    I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.

    I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.

    Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    MaxPB said:

    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?

    No, at least on the expo, I wouldn't go anywhere that has a huge number of people travelling in from all over the world.

    Skiing should be fine.
    According to this, I only have a 0.4% chance of dying, should I contract it.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    Barnesian said:



    No more bonkers than Starmer seemingly being prepared to have RLB and Burgon in his cabinet.

    Is he?

    Yeah, a lot of chaff around before votes are cast.

    Smartest thing to do would be to keep McDonnell (at least he can handle an interview) and give him a weighty portfolio, then look to ditch the other fuckwits either straight away or once you've consolidated.

    Not that I give a rat's arse about Labour until they embrace electoral reform.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483


    MaxPB said:

    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?

    No, at least on the expo, I wouldn't go anywhere that has a huge number of people travelling in from all over the world.

    Skiing should be fine.
    According to this, I only have a 0.4% chance of dying, should I contract it.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
    Do you add them together or what?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    1979 Thatcher wins, 1980 Reagan follows
    1992 Clinton wins, 1997 Blair follows
    2008 Obama wins, 2010 Cameron follows
    2016 Brexit wins, 2016 Trump follows
    2019 Corbyn trounced, 2020 Sanders follows...

    What happens after that I wonder
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?

    Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
    This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.

    I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.

    I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.

    Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
    If he really was SeanT, he would be able to afford his own medical ventilator. Which is what I would really be investing in if I were rich. I assume it's the shortage of those once local medical systems become overwhelmed that leads to all the pneumonia deaths.

    Assuming we're all going to get it, what you really want is to catch it early, somewhere there is good medical care. If it becomes a pandemic and the medical systems are overwhelmed the mortality rate will leap from 0.5%ish to 4%ish at least as there simply aren't enough ICU beds.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    eadric said:

    This is incredible. A live, interactive map of South Korea, showing the spread of the virus (and listing the details), with an English language option.

    https://coronamap.live/

    You have to wonder if the UK is capable of similar sophistication. Hmm.

    So far, seems only about 3% of suspected cases are turning out to be COVID-19. Seems S. Korea is treating it seriously, checking out all possible cases.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    nichomar said:


    MaxPB said:

    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?

    No, at least on the expo, I wouldn't go anywhere that has a huge number of people travelling in from all over the world.

    Skiing should be fine.
    According to this, I only have a 0.4% chance of dying, should I contract it.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
    Do you add them together or what?
    I would think you multiply them as per: 1.080 x 1.073 =1.16 i.e. 16% mortality if aged between 70 and 79 with diabetes.
    Yikes!

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    speedy2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Latest polls are showing a swing to Trump in Wisconsin but against him in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

    Quinnipiac is a weird pollster, I don't think they weigh by education so they always post unusual numbers many years now.

    If Trump is winning Wisconsin by 11 he will also win all other Mid-Western states, even Illinois will be close.

    If Trump is losing Pennsylvania by 8 he will also lose all other Mid-Western states, even Iowa will be close.

    Instead just use the average in all 3 states, it's Trump -1 or something.
    If trump is winning Wisconsin by 11 then Trump is on for a Reagan like landslide.
  • What a clusterfeck VAR is.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kyf_100 said:

    ydoethur said:

    eadric said:

    ydoethur said:

    I am supposed to be in Hamburg in a month, for a global expo, and then skiing outside Geneva with my family.

    Am I a scaredy-cat for starting to think about my options?

    Yes. If it gets that far it will make no difference where you are, it will be a truly global pandemic. You might as well run the risk of catching it in Hamburg or Geneva as in London(?).
    This is almost certainly true already. I cannot believe the virus is in provincial Italy but not in, say, London - or Hamburg.

    I don’t want to display any normalcy bias, like an idiot, but probably the best bet now is to presume it will spread everywhere.

    I was wrong. You’re not SeanT, you’re Chicken Licken.

    Look, this virus is clearly virulent and in the wrong circumstances can be dangerous. But it’s much less dangerous than Spanish flu and barely seems worse than standard flu. There is no reason for hysteria yet.
    If he really was SeanT, he would be able to afford his own medical ventilator. Which is what I would really be investing in if I were rich. I assume it's the shortage of those once local medical systems become overwhelmed that leads to all the pneumonia deaths.

    Assuming we're all going to get it, what you really want is to catch it early, somewhere there is good medical care. If it becomes a pandemic and the medical systems are overwhelmed the mortality rate will leap from 0.5%ish to 4%ish at least as there simply aren't enough ICU beds.
    Potential significant impact in retirement communities where health facilities are already over stretched. Could change the seaside resorts demographically.
This discussion has been closed.