I think that if Biden does really badly tonight he might be finished. He has very little going for him other than his alleged electability. But how bad is too bad? Worse than third?
I believe this is a story from the Quran that is commonly used element to convert past sinners....
But if a Muslim's faith is imperfect or if he has sinned during life by, for example, failing repeatedly to undertake purity rituals before prayer, then the grave is transformed into an oppressive, constricting space. The earth begins to weigh down heavily upon the sentient corpse, until the rib cage collapses; worms begin to nibble away at the flesh, causing horrible pain."
The trick, apparently, is to die after a good bottle of red wine. The corpse is then only barely sentient, and you're unlikely to notice the worms nibbling away.
Only 296 votes in though. It reminds me a bit of the cancelled Selzer poll result.
What's the source for those numbers?
Klobouchar performing very well there. But I think the demographics of the early results may be very unrepresentative. They seem to be (a) pensioners able to spend months away in warmer climate (b) shift workers and students and (c) Sanders campaign organisers who want to get their votes registered before the main effort later. (a) will be very wealthy and probably centrist; (b) will be quite pro-Sanders and (c) will entirely be pro-Sanders.
My gut is that Sanders will end up on around 30-32%. Buttigieg will get a result in the high 20s, while Klobuchar will be in the low 20s.
And Warren will beat Biden, but both of them will end up with poor results.
Biden will attempt to stay in the race, but will get hammered again in New Hampshire, and his vote share will continue to head downwards.
If one of Klobuchar and Buttigieg can establish themselves as the moderate Democrat, then they'll go all the way to the convention.
Only 296 votes in though. It reminds me a bit of the cancelled Selzer poll result.
What's the source for those numbers?
Klobouchar performing very well there. But I think the demographics of the early results may be very unrepresentative. They seem to be (a) pensioners able to spend months away in warmer climate (b) shift workers and students and (c) Sanders campaign organisers who want to get their votes registered before the main effort later. (a) will be very wealthy and probably centrist; (b) will be quite pro-Sanders and (c) will entirely be pro-Sanders.
My gut is that Sanders will end up on around 30-32%. Buttigieg will get a result in the high 20s, while Klobuchar will be in the low 20s.
And Warren will beat Biden, but both of them will end up with poor results.
Biden will attempt to stay in the race, but will get hammered again in New Hampshire, and his vote share will continue to head downwards.
If one of Klobuchar and Buttigieg can establish themselves as the moderate Democrat, then they'll go all the way to the convention.
Also, regarding that story earler today about the press briefing: twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1224409797082189826?s=20
Other journalists (including a Guardian journalist) seem to say there is. The issue seems to be who was doing the briefing and the issue to be discussed when have an "inner lobby".
I don't know what the true story is, but it's a fact that journalists from "right wing Boris supporting" papers seem to think it's true.
Only 296 votes in though. It reminds me a bit of the cancelled Selzer poll result.
What's the source for those numbers?
Klobouchar performing very well there. But I think the demographics of the early results may be very unrepresentative. They seem to be (a) pensioners able to spend months away in warmer climate (b) shift workers and students and (c) Sanders campaign organisers who want to get their votes registered before the main effort later. (a) will be very wealthy and probably centrist; (b) will be quite pro-Sanders and (c) will entirely be pro-Sanders.
My gut is that Sanders will end up on around 30-32%. Buttigieg will get a result in the high 20s, while Klobuchar will be in the low 20s.
And Warren will beat Biden, but both of them will end up with poor results.
Biden will attempt to stay in the race, but will get hammered again in New Hampshire, and his vote share will continue to head downwards.
If one of Klobuchar and Buttigieg can establish themselves as the moderate Democrat, then they'll go all the way to the convention.
Also, regarding that story earler today about the press briefing: twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1224409797082189826?s=20
Other journalists (including a Guardian journalist) seem to say there is. The issue seems to be who was doing the briefing and the issue to be discussed when have an "inner lobby".
I don't know what the true story is, but it's a fact that journalists from "right wing Boris supporting" papers seem to think it's true.
My take is that neither are fully telling the truth. Staines is spinning this perfectly normal, the Guardian journo said it isn't uncommon, but not to be briefed in this way from a supposed impartial civil servant. The later appears to be the crux of the issue and sounds believable.
The government clearly wanted to try and give their message to a particular hand chosen group and the media pack have basically said no no no, not on this issue you don't, its all of us or none, so they all turned up. The government bod said we only invited some of you, tried to hold the line of only those with the golden ticket get the briefing and the media pack said well we are off then.
It does seem that the lobby and Team Dom don't get on, regardless of their political viewpoints...but then Cummings managed to piss them all off when he worked for Gove, so nothing new there.
3.75 for what? The democratic nomination for president, the president, what?
Democratic nomination.
Now 4.
Thank you
Ok, quick question to everybody. The odds on Biden being Democratic nominee for President are quite large. If he goes on to win then it is possible to win greatly at those odds. So the question I have to ask is: will Biden be the Democratic nominee for POTUS?
Why let out prisoners who require such close surveillance?
Because you can only jail people for the length of the sentence given them by the judge.
There are - in exception circumstances - whole life, or indeterminate, sentences. But the government doesn't get the choice to decide someone has to stay in prison longer than their sentence.
Well the judges who sentence people that are not fit for release upon serving the time they thought appropriate should face some kind of stewards enquiry with possible demotion
You tell me. An 80-seat majority and its 10th year in power. The public is getting what it voted for: criminals released early onto the streets of our country because, for all the wailing now, it didn’t and doesn’t really care about having a criminal justice system that is fit for purpose.
So, frankly, the public can go and do one. If it won’t will the means, it won’t get the ends. It prefers to put its faith in politicians who lie about the reality and think that sound bites and rushed laws are a substitute for good policy. They aren’t. So on we lurch from crisis to crisis. It’s the Will of the People.
Let us presume I was of the view with these sorts of gentlemen that the best approach involves a short sharp drop, or failing that, throwing away the key. Who exactly should I have voted for at the last 3 elections? That's where a sizable chunk of the public is at, but there is no serious political party willing to go anywhere near this. It is not the fault of the electorate that there was no one available to represent their views.
This mess (rather like Brexit) has been brought upon us by our politicans conspiring to prevent us choosing what we want, because they know best. At some point, we the people will push back (see also Brexit), and the political class will be horrified by how far we want to go (again, see also Brexit).
Why let out prisoners who require such close surveillance?
Because you can only jail people for the length of the sentence given them by the judge.
There are - in exception circumstances - whole life, or indeterminate, sentences. But the government doesn't get the choice to decide someone has to stay in prison longer than their sentence.
Well the judges who sentence people that are not fit for release upon serving the time they thought appropriate should face some kind of stewards enquiry with possible demotion
You tell me. An 80-seat majority and its 10th year in power. The public is getting what it voted for: criminals released early onto the streets of our country because, for all the wailing now, it didn’t and doesn’t really care about having a criminal justice system that is fit for purpose.
So, frankly, the public can go and do one. If it won’t will the means, it won’t get the ends. It prefers to put its faith in politicians who lie about the reality and think that sound bites and rushed laws are a substitute for good policy. They aren’t. So on we lurch from crisis to crisis. It’s the Will of the People.
Let us presume I was of the view with these sorts of gentlemen that the best approach involves a short sharp drop, or failing that, throwing away the key. Who exactly should I have voted for at the last 3 elections? That's where a sizable chunk of the public is at, but there is no serious political party willing to go anywhere near this. It is not the fault of the electorate that there was no one available to represent their views.
This mess (rather like Brexit) has been brought upon us by our politicans conspiring to prevent us choosing what we want, because they know best. At some point, we the people will push back (see also Brexit), and the political class will be horrified by how far we want to go (again, see also Brexit).
What did Boris conspire to prevent? He is PM; if you think those things, you now rule; it is on you.
EDIT If you mean you want the government to hang criminals for crimes of opinion, sharing and posting violent material, I would say to that person that you are out of your mind.
Why let out prisoners who require such close surveillance?
Because you can only jail people for the length of the sentence given them by the judge.
There are - in exception circumstances - whole life, or indeterminate, sentences. But the government doesn't get the choice to decide someone has to stay in prison longer than their sentence.
Well the judges who sentence people that are not fit for release upon serving the time they thought appropriate should face some kind of stewards enquiry with possible demotion
You tell me. An 80-seat majority and its 10th year in power. The public is getting what it voted for: criminals released early onto the streets of our country because, for all the wailing now, it didn’t and doesn’t really care about having a criminal justice system that is fit for purpose.
So, frankly, the public can go and do one. If it won’t will the means, it won’t get the ends. It prefers to put its faith in politicians who lie about the reality and think that sound bites and rushed laws are a substitute for good policy. They aren’t. So on we lurch from crisis to crisis. It’s the Will of the People.
Let us presume I was of the view with these sorts of gentlemen that the best approach involves a short sharp drop, or failing that, throwing away the key. Who exactly should I have voted for at the last 3 elections? That's where a sizable chunk of the public is at, but there is no serious political party willing to go anywhere near this. It is not the fault of the electorate that there was no one available to represent their views.
This mess (rather like Brexit) has been brought upon us by our politicans conspiring to prevent us choosing what we want, because they know best. At some point, we the people will push back (see also Brexit), and the political class will be horrified by how far we want to go (again, see also Brexit).
You need primaries. That is the way to different views can come to the fore.
Why let out prisoners who require such close surveillance?
Because you can only jail people for the length of the sentence given them by the judge.
There are - in exception circumstances - whole life, or indeterminate, sentences. But the government doesn't get the choice to decide someone has to stay in prison longer than their sentence.
Well the judges who sentence people that are not fit for release upon serving the time they thought appropriate should face some kind of stewards enquiry with possible demotion
You tell me. An 80-seat majority and its 10th year in power. The public is getting what it voted for: criminals released early onto the streets of our country because, for all the wailing now, it didn’t and doesn’t really care about having a criminal justice system that is fit for purpose.
So, frankly, the public can go and do one. If it won’t will the means, it won’t get the ends. It prefers to put its faith in politicians who lie about the reality and think that sound bites and rushed laws are a substitute for good policy. They aren’t. So on we lurch from crisis to crisis. It’s the Will of the People.
Let us presume I was of the view with these sorts of gentlemen that the best approach involves a short sharp drop, or failing that, throwing away the key. Who exactly should I have voted for at the last 3 elections? That's where a sizable chunk of the public is at, but there is no serious political party willing to go anywhere near this. It is not the fault of the electorate that there was no one available to represent their views.
This mess (rather like Brexit) has been brought upon us by our politicans conspiring to prevent us choosing what we want, because they know best. At some point, we the people will push back (see also Brexit), and the political class will be horrified by how far we want to go (again, see also Brexit).
That's simplistic.
Laws take time to reflect reality.
Downloading extremist material is not going to get someone a 25 year sentence. Because most people who do it are idiots rather than terrorists.
Why let out prisoners who require such close surveillance?
Because you can only jail people for the length of the sentence given them by the judge.
There are - in exception circumstances - whole life, or indeterminate, sentences. But the government doesn't get the choice to decide someone has to stay in prison longer than their sentence.
Well the judges who sentence people that are not fit for release upon serving the time they thought appropriate should face some kind of stewards enquiry with possible demotion
You tell me. An 80-seat majority and its 10th year in power. The public is getting what it voted for: criminals released early onto the streets of our country because, for all the wailing now, it didn’t and doesn’t really care about having a criminal justice system that is fit for purpose.
So, frankly, the public can go and do one. If it won’t will the means, it won’t get the ends. It prefers to put its faith in politicians who lie about the reality and think that sound bites and rushed laws are a substitute for good policy. They aren’t. So on we lurch from crisis to crisis. It’s the Will of the People.
Let us presume I was of the view with these sorts of gentlemen that the best approach involves a short sharp drop, or failing that, throwing away the key. Who exactly should I have voted for at the last 3 elections? That's where a sizable chunk of the public is at, but there is no serious political party willing to go anywhere near this. It is not the fault of the electorate that there was no one available to represent their views.
This mess (rather like Brexit) has been brought upon us by our politicans conspiring to prevent us choosing what we want, because they know best. At some point, we the people will push back (see also Brexit), and the political class will be horrified by how far we want to go (again, see also Brexit).
What did Boris conspire to prevent? He is PM; if you think those things, you now rule; it is on you.
How do you make that add up? I'll grant you that most of the hang'em and flog'em types probably voted for Boris, but who else exactly was there on offer who might have been tougher? Do you see Grandpa magic cracking down on terrorists? What sort of crime had Jo Swinson ever been interested in other than prosecutions for wrongthink?
This is entirely my point. We the people can't be blamed for successive governments being soft on crime (mixed in with the odd moronic knee jerk) because the major parties and the establishment have conspired to prevent any other option being available to us.
How do you make that add up? I'll grant you that most of the hang'em and flog'em types probably voted for Boris, but who else exactly was there on offer who might have been tougher? Do you see Grandpa magic cracking down on terrorists? What sort of crime haa Jo Swinson has been interested in other than prosecutions for wrongthink?
This is entirely my point. We the people can't be blamed for successive governments being soft on crime (mixed in with the odd moronic knee jerk) because the major parties and the establishment have conspired to prevent any other option being available to us.
Part of the problem, of course, is that we already have more crime, and lock more people up, for longer than in any other Western European country.
Harsher sentences are popular, but they don't seem to reduce recidivism.
We can go the US route of locking up ever greater portions of the populace. But it doesn't seem to result in lower crime there either.
More snipps from the Entrance Poll 63% say they want someone to beat Trump. 55% are women 59% caucused for Hillary 33% are mod/conservatives. 36% are over 65
These are very good numbers for Biden or at least bad for Sanders.
Well the judges who sentence people that are not fit for release upon serving the time they thought appropriate should face some kind of stewards enquiry with possible demotion
You tell me. An 80-seat majority and its 10th year in power. The public is getting what it voted for: criminals released early onto the streets of our country because, for all the wailing now, it didn’t and doesn’t really care about having a criminal justice system that is fit for purpose.
So, frankly, the public can go and do one. If it won’t will the means, it won’t get the ends. It prefers to put its faith in politicians who lie about the reality and think that sound bites and rushed laws are a substitute for good policy. They aren’t. So on we lurch from crisis to crisis. It’s the Will of the People.
Let us presume I was of the view with these sorts of gentlemen that the best approach involves a short sharp drop, or failing that, throwing away the key. Who exactly should I have voted for at the last 3 elections? That's where a sizable chunk of the public is at, but there is no serious political party willing to go anywhere near this. It is not the fault of the electorate that there was no one available to represent their views.
This mess (rather like Brexit) has been brought upon us by our politicans conspiring to prevent us choosing what we want, because they know best. At some point, we the people will push back (see also Brexit), and the political class will be horrified by how far we want to go (again, see also Brexit).
What did Boris conspire to prevent? He is PM; if you think those things, you now rule; it is on you.
How do you make that add up? I'll grant you that most of the hang'em and flog'em types probably voted for Boris, but who else exactly was there on offer who might have been tougher? Do you see Grandpa magic cracking down on terrorists? What sort of crime had Jo Swinson ever been interested in other than prosecutions for wrongthink?
This is entirely my point. We the people can't be blamed for successive governments being soft on crime (mixed in with the odd moronic knee jerk) because the major parties and the establishment have conspired to prevent any other option being available to us.
No, Boris and Priti have refrained from killing everyone sharing al Shabab videos, by hanging, because they are not grotesque barbarians. It is not because a majority wants to see them die. That is your private imagination.
When is a no deal not really a no deal . Simple just rename it the Australia deal .
You can be a global champion of free trade apparently by trashing free trade with your biggest market.
Bozo talks tosh , lies repeatedly and this is now priced in . The Trumpian takeover of the way politics now works in the UK continues .
Bozos base as it should now be called is just missing the trailer park in Nebraska , a load of guns and hypocritical church goers whose Christianity lasts as long as the Sunday mass .
Why let out prisoners who require such close surveillance?
Because you can only jail people for the length of the sentence given them by the judge.
There are - in exception circumstances - whole life, or indeterminate, sentences. But the government doesn't get the choice to decide someone has to stay in prison longer than their sentence.
Well the judges who sentence people that are not fit for release upon serving the time they thought appropriate should face some kind of stewards enquiry with possible demotion
You tell me. An 80-seat majority and its 10th year in power. The public is getting what it voted for: criminals released early onto the streets of our country because, for all the wailing now, it didn’t and doesn’t really care about having a criminal justice system that is fit for purpose.
So, frankly, the public can go and do one. If it won’t will the means, it won’t get the ends. It prefers to put its faith in politicians who lie about the reality and think that sound bites and rushed laws are a substitute for good policy. They aren’t. So on we lurch from crisis to crisis. It’s the Will of the People.
Let us presume I was of the view with these sorts of gentlemen that the best approach involves a short sharp drop, or failing that, throwing away the key. Who exactly should I have voted for at the last 3 elections? That's where a sizable chunk of the public is at, but there is no serious political party willing to go anywhere near this. It is not the fault of the electorate that there was no one available to represent their views.
This mess (rather like Brexit) has been brought upon us by our politicans conspiring to prevent us choosing what we want, because they know best. At some point, we the people will push back (see also Brexit), and the political class will be horrified by how far we want to go (again, see also Brexit).
That's simplistic.
Laws take time to reflect reality.
Downloading extremist material is not going to get someone a 25 year sentence. Because most people who do it are idiots rather than terrorists.
I appreciate that, and I'm not seriously advocating such a policy - to an extent I'm exaggerating to make a point. But I'm also making a serious point - the general public is much harder line on crime than any government in my lifetime has ever been - and the only possible explanation for this is an establishment stich up.
Should sharing PIRA archive material from the 1980s be met with: hanging; lethal injection; nothing for spurious historical lapse reasons; nothing for spurious race reasons; or other?
Sorry - did you think they care down in England? The only need Scotland for the Naval bases, otherwise you would be gone.
Look at the cheerleaders on this thread happy to sell N Ireland down the river. Be grateful for Trident otherwise you would get the same treatment.
Brexitstan doesn't absolutely need Scotland for Trident. They could put the boomers in to Devonport and store the, ahem, 'physics package' at Falmouth. Or reopen Portland which would require the demolition of a Fitness First and therefore some local opposition but it's nothing our podgy caudillo couldn't trample under his sweaty trotters.
The Entrance Poll numbers are changing all the time as more people arrive at their caucus sites so beware. They have already changed since 5 minutes ago.
I appreciate that, and I'm not seriously advocating such a policy - to an extent I'm exaggerating to make a point. But I'm also making a serious point - the general public is much harder line on crime than any government in my lifetime has ever been - and the only possible explanation for this is an establishment stich up.
But that's always the case, in every country, everywhere.
It's just that politicians recognise that people want greater sentences for wrongdoing. But then they get aggrieved when someone gets a sentence that seems completely disproportionate, or (when mandatory sentences become common) juries let people off rather than send people to prison for too long.
We also want low levels of recidivism. But we don't want to spend money on prisons.
We also hate miscarriages of justice. But loathe the idea of taxpayers money being used to pay for murderer's judges.
This is going to be a very interesting evening. I think Mayor Pete may have got this.
Well OK, Magic Numbers Guy: who's going to win the Democratic Iowa nomination?...
Bernie is a shoe in imo
The entrance polls suggest it's a very close race. Sanders is certainly favourite, but Buttigieg (and Warren) will collect more Klobuchar second choices than he will.
I don't think the numbers we're seeing make anyone a favourite.
Also worth remembering that Sanders could easily top the first round votes count, but come second or third in State Delegate Equivalents, given (a) rural votes are worth more, and (b) allocation of second places.
Biden isn't dropping out before Super Tuesday. Could be 5 somewhat viable candidates on Super Tuesday, with 3 after it. Contested convention time...
If Biden were to come fourth (which now looks unlikely), and then perform poorly in New Hampshire, then it will be interesting to see if his support holds up.
Biden isn't dropping out before Super Tuesday. Could be 5 somewhat viable candidates on Super Tuesday, with 3 after it. Contested convention time...
Worst result for Democrats is a contested convention with a majority backing moderate candidates and Sanders having the plurality for any single candidate.
Haven't stayed up for Iowa before, it's even more nuts than I expected. I'm watching CNN, is there better coverage elsewhere? What I'm seeing isn't bad.
This is going to be a very interesting evening. I think Mayor Pete may have got this.
He doesn't seem to be a frontrunner on any particular issue, in any particular place, age group, or ideological faction, but he racks up a pile of second and third preferences, and even in his weakest spots he seems to be at least acceptable to many. Given how fractured the vote is, this should work to his advantage.
This is going to be a very interesting evening. I think Mayor Pete may have got this.
Well OK, Magic Numbers Guy: who's going to win the Democratic Iowa nomination?...
Bernie is a shoe in imo
The entrance polls suggest it's a very close race. Sanders is certainly favourite, but Buttigieg (and Warren) will collect more Klobuchar second choices than he will.
I don't think the numbers we're seeing make anyone a favourite.
Also worth remembering that Sanders could easily top the first round votes count, but come second or third in State Delegate Equivalents, given (a) rural votes are worth more, and (b) allocation of second places.
It's a mess in rural areas. You got sporadic results for Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Haven't stayed up for Iowa before, it's even more nuts than I expected. I'm watching CNN, is there better coverage elsewhere? What I'm seeing isn't bad.
msnbc. Don't know if it's better or just different.
Fox News is keeping its regular schedule with frequent remotes to Iowa.
BBC World News is also covering it. Katty Kay and thingy Fraser are in Des Moines
Biden isn't dropping out before Super Tuesday. Could be 5 somewhat viable candidates on Super Tuesday, with 3 after it. Contested convention time...
Who's going to be funding a campaign across 15 states including Texas and California if he loses all the primaries in February?
Assuming that he doesn't collapse completely he'll be able to get enough money together by the 'I'll win the south' line. From his perspective it's a shame that SC isn't further before super Tuesday.
Folks, I love you all to bits, but I'm looking at the convo and all I can think of is: you don't actually know what's happening. It hasn't been so disassociated (right word?) since last year's Peterborough by-election. Goodnight sweet princes and princesses: I'm off to my bed. Have fun...
Biden isn't dropping out before Super Tuesday. Could be 5 somewhat viable candidates on Super Tuesday, with 3 after it. Contested convention time...
Who's going to be funding a campaign across 15 states including Texas and California if he loses all the primaries in February?
Assuming that he doesn't collapse completely he'll be able to get enough money together by the 'I'll win the south' line. From his perspective it's a shame that SC isn't further before super Tuesday.
Worth remembering that Biden has been a fundraising disaster, well behind Mayor Pete, Sanders and Warren.
Biden isn't dropping out before Super Tuesday. Could be 5 somewhat viable candidates on Super Tuesday, with 3 after it. Contested convention time...
Worst result for Democrats is a contested convention with a majority backing moderate candidates and Sanders having the plurality for any single candidate.
Yeah, but it didn't harm them when it was Hoynes vs Russell, and the moderate Santos got it, and then the Presidency.
Folks, I love you all to bits, but I'm looking at the convo and all I can think of is: you don't actually know what's happening. It hasn't been so disassociated (right word?) since last year's Peterborough by-election. Goodnight sweet princes and princesses: I'm off to my bed. Have fun...
Not true. There's an entrance poll. And some sparse evidence of how second choices split.
All the beeb folks are making a big deal of a pop concert organized by Bernie's campaign on Saturday which attracted 3000 people. What they don't mention is that Trump was in Des Moines Thursday and got 9000 inside and several thousand crowded outside.
Biden isn't dropping out before Super Tuesday. Could be 5 somewhat viable candidates on Super Tuesday, with 3 after it. Contested convention time...
Who's going to be funding a campaign across 15 states including Texas and California if he loses all the primaries in February?
Assuming that he doesn't collapse completely he'll be able to get enough money together by the 'I'll win the south' line. From his perspective it's a shame that SC isn't further before super Tuesday.
Worth remembering that Biden has been a fundraising disaster, well behind Mayor Pete, Sanders and Warren.
All the beeb folks are making a big deal of a pop concert organized by Bernie's campaign on Saturday which attracted 3000 people. What they don't mention is that Trump was in Des Moines Thursday and got 9000 inside and several thousand crowded outside.
So? I don’t think anyone’s expecting Iowa to be Democratic pick-up in November.
NATE SILVER 9:16 PM: We do have around around 20 precincts reporting first alignment results, and it’s Buttigieg 21, Sanders 22, Biden 17, Warren 17, Klobuchar 15
Comments
And Warren will beat Biden, but both of them will end up with poor results.
Biden will attempt to stay in the race, but will get hammered again in New Hampshire, and his vote share will continue to head downwards.
If one of Klobuchar and Buttigieg can establish themselves as the moderate Democrat, then they'll go all the way to the convention.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVv3KGe6sBE
The government clearly wanted to try and give their message to a particular hand chosen group and the media pack have basically said no no no, not on this issue you don't, its all of us or none, so they all turned up. The government bod said we only invited some of you, tried to hold the line of only those with the golden ticket get the briefing and the media pack said well we are off then.
It does seem that the lobby and Team Dom don't get on, regardless of their political viewpoints...but then Cummings managed to piss them all off when he worked for Gove, so nothing new there.
Now 4.
Klobuchar 53
Buttigieg 39
Biden 30
Warren 25
Sanders 7
Bloomgerg 2
Steyer 2
Sanders, Bloomberg, Steyer eliminated.
This mess (rather like Brexit) has been brought upon us by our politicans conspiring to prevent us choosing what we want, because they know best. At some point, we the people will push back (see also Brexit), and the political class will be horrified by how far we want to go (again, see also Brexit).
EDIT If you mean you want the government to hang criminals for crimes of opinion, sharing and posting violent material, I would say to that person that you are out of your mind.
Klob into 42s
https://twitter.com/ClareMalone/status/1224485118271803392
Most of us are balls-red on Clinton
Klobuchar - 54 (+1)
Buttigieg - 41 (+2)
Biden - 33 (+2)
Warren - 31 (+6)
Sanders voters going mostly for Warren.
Laws take time to reflect reality.
Downloading extremist material is not going to get someone a 25 year sentence. Because most people who do it are idiots rather than terrorists.
This is entirely my point. We the people can't be blamed for successive governments being soft on crime (mixed in with the odd moronic knee jerk) because the major parties and the establishment have conspired to prevent any other option being available to us.
(I hope the reference isn't too old)
59% are College Educated.
36% say this is their first time voting.
Harsher sentences are popular, but they don't seem to reduce recidivism.
We can go the US route of locking up ever greater portions of the populace. But it doesn't seem to result in lower crime there either.
63% say they want someone to beat Trump.
55% are women
59% caucused for Hillary
33% are mod/conservatives.
36% are over 65
These are very good numbers for Biden or at least bad for Sanders.
You can be a global champion of free trade apparently by trashing free trade with your biggest market.
Bozo talks tosh , lies repeatedly and this is now priced in . The Trumpian takeover of the way politics now works in the UK continues .
Bozos base as it should now be called is just missing the trailer park in Nebraska , a load of guns and hypocritical church goers whose Christianity lasts as long as the Sunday mass .
They have already changed since 5 minutes ago.
It's just that politicians recognise that people want greater sentences for wrongdoing. But then they get aggrieved when someone gets a sentence that seems completely disproportionate, or (when mandatory sentences become common) juries let people off rather than send people to prison for too long.
We also want low levels of recidivism. But we don't want to spend money on prisons.
We also hate miscarriages of justice. But loathe the idea of taxpayers money being used to pay for murderer's judges.
Amy on the other hand has gone from 21/1 to 109/1 in the last fifteen minutes for unexplained reasons.
Biden
Buttigieg
Warren
Sanders
But too close to call.
51% of 17-29's (20% of all voters) vote Sanders.
Biden 4%
Buttigieg 25%
Warren 20%
Biden 18%
Sanders 16%
Yang 4%
Steyer 2%
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa
over 65's
Biden 32%
Buttigieg 25%
Klobuchar 16%
Warren 12%
Sanders 4%
And this is also why Sanders is doing that bad if the electorate is 34% over 65's.
Over 65's are now 30% down from 39% 45 minutes ago.
17-29 are now up to 21%.
The Entrance Poll is changing by the minute.
Sander 45.7
Warren 29.3
Mayo Pete 8.3
Yang 7.4
Biden 3.4 LOL
Sanders gets 48% from those under 49 (42% of voters).
That's why age is very important.
As the share of over 65's drop in the Entrance poll Sanders goes up, Biden goes down.
Sanders 22%
Buttigieg 20%
Biden 18%
Warren 17%
Klobuchar 9%
Yang 4%
Steyer 2%
But there are also a bunch of undecideds in there.
Could be anyone.
I don't think the numbers we're seeing make anyone a favourite.
Also worth remembering that Sanders could easily top the first round votes count, but come second or third in State Delegate Equivalents, given (a) rural votes are worth more, and (b) allocation of second places.
Personally, I think most people end up choosing a second placed candidate.
Given how fractured the vote is, this should work to his advantage.
You got sporadic results for Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Fox News is keeping its regular schedule with frequent remotes to Iowa.
BBC World News is also covering it. Katty Kay and thingy Fraser are in Des Moines
The CNN Entrance Poll is possibly being Hacked, the numbers are changing randomly every 10 seconds.
One moment it has Sanders at 15% the other at 43%
over 65's 28% of voters now.
17-29 23%
It's getting better for Sanders and worse for Biden.