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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With three hours to go before the Iowa caucuses Betfair punters make Bernie a 62% chance
The latest weather for Des Moines has it down going down to minus 6 tonight which could be a big disincentive to those Democratic supporters who were considering taking part in the caucuses. In past elections something like 26% of Iowans have participated which makes this a massive test for the pollsters. Will those who said they’d participate in these events which can lat two hours actually do so.
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Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar are all buys.
I'd have thought you'd respect the fact that he's achieved success from an ordinary unprivileged working class background.
Are they campaigning on constitutional change demanding a border poll while ignoring other issues, like the SNP? Or are they campaigning on more mundane domestic matters?
Indeed it will be interesting to hear the comments from the ECHR report, not only on the issues of anti semitism in the labour party, but who if anyone they single out as having failed to address the issue
Lisa Nandy is labour's safer bet and could be more of a problem to the conservatives
1. Bernie has organised the Unions well. If this was heavily-Unionised Nevada, he'd be killing it.
2. Klobuchar is getting a bit more traction than you might expect.
3. Biden and Warren are not doing that great.
4. Yang and Steyer aren't going to be the Democratic nominee.
The only people not talking about Irish Unity are the government. The institutions in the north are back up and running, we need a national forum, a citizens Assembly to have the discussion and we need to start the planning for the Unity referendum.
Sinn Féin will:
Seek the full implementation of the Good Friday Agreement.
Publish a White Paper on Irish Unity.
Establish a Joint Oireachtas Committee on Irish Unity.
Secure a referendum, north and south, on Irish Unity.
But they have policies on other things.
https://www.sinnfein.ie/policies
So yeh, could go anyway and the latter are buys.
Still a long way to go till around 100-150k vote.
The whole caucus process could take another 9 hours.
Hardly puts him in the privleged elite, does it.
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1224456028663599107/photo/1
More seriously: they might influence later votes. If Klobuchar is seen to be doing well, then it will potentially influence voters making their second choice
"My background is not typical of a lawyer or a DPP," he says. "My dad was a toolmaker before he retired, so he worked in a factory all his life. My mum was a nurse, and she's been physically disabled for years."
Of course caring about his upbringing is bollocks. Johnson went to Eton for fucks sake.
I was a bit puzzled by @eadrics comments on the previous page. Germany after 1945 was split into two jurisdictions (the GDR and the DDR) by the demands of a government outside the country. On unification one of them was reabsorbed into the other and the border ceased to exist
Similarly after 192blah Ireland was split into two jurisdictions (NI and SI, later the Irish Free State and so on) by the demands of a government outside the country. Should they unwisely (imho) vote for unification, one will be absorbed into the other and the border cease to exist
Des Moines native Colyn Burbank hosted a mixture of Iowans, observers and press, at his apartment in Glasgow for one of the three International caucus events aimed at helping Democrats pick someone who can beat President Donald Trump in 2020.
On a blustery and rainy Monday, 20 Iowans showed up at Burbanks' residence in Scotland's capital to express their preference for who should be the Democrats' next standard-bearer. Despite a Friday NBC/WSJ national poll that showed Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden statistically tied, the former vice president did not receive a single vote.
Scottish PBers, when did this happen???
https://twitter.com/lukefrancis88/status/1224424807846109190?s=21
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1224364807991652352
You see, the one group of states where that's not true is... the rust belt.
Unemployment is rising in Pennsylvania, Michigan Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, while it's heading ever lower in most of the rest of the country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51365762
Authorities are now refusing to explain why Amman was able to get his hands on the blade - despite being trailed by officers - or give any more details on the surveillance operation.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7962565/Police-refuse-explain-Streatham-terrorist-Sudesh-Amman-got-close-knife.html
FFS...unless they literally stand next to a suspect day and night, going into a random shop and grabbing a knife off the shelf is always going to be possible. He was neutralized within 60s of going into the shop.
Are we going to shoot any of them that pop out to buy some new kitchenware? Cos we know what the outcry would be like.
The bigger question for me is when will @Charles's mum spill the beans on the alleged skeletons in Starmer's cupboard?
There are - in exception circumstances - whole life, or indeterminate, sentences. But the government doesn't get the choice to decide someone has to stay in prison longer than their sentence.
Hopefully they get their act together and make changes.
A start would be ensuring nobody gets early release without the parole board saying they are safe. For any crime not just terrorism.
Then some method of holding the parole board to account for recidivism for those they've deemed safe would be a good second step.
I have a Yorkshire accent*, so I must be working class.
*Actually it is morphing into a Mancunian accent. I'm mortified.
I was planning on doing a thread comparing Boris Johnson to Daniel Cleaver and Sir Keir as Mark D'Arcy.
He was in jail for having downloaded objectionable material off the internet, nothing actually violent. Were we going to keep him locked up indefinitely? This is not as straightforward as the press and some in government are claiming.
From this morning:-
“ The reason criminals - not just those with terrorism on their mind - get released halfway through their sentence is that we do not have enough prison places to keep them in for their whole sentence. This part of the criminal justice system has, in common with many others, been woefully underfunded for years. And so - rather than spend the money - laws are passed making automatic early release the norm.
We are not honest with the public about this.
We then get into a moral panic when something like this happens and thrash around looking for people to blame. Lawyers are a favourite group though it is not the legal profession which determines how much is spent on criminal justice. Or judges - though their sentencing decisions are much more tightly controlled than the public often realises. Or the probation service - which has been pretty much ruined by that fool, Grayling. Or the intelligence services. Or pretty much anyone.
But the reality is that if you want a criminal justice system that investigates, prosecutes, sentences and incarcerates people properly and then takes effective steps to ensure they are not a threat when released, you need to fund all parts of the system properly, you need to get high quality people in to do the work at every level and you need to be honest with the public about what is involved and what is realistic. And you also need to be honest about the choices and trade-offs involved: between public protection and individual rights, between liberty and security etc.
We do none of these things. Instead our politicians posture and preen and come up with silly ignorant or uninformed sound bites. So we get a broken second-rate system which pleases no-one and does not achieve what it ought while we preen ourselves about being such a great country. We really need to take a good clear look at ourselves. Fat chance.”.
The government is proposing to change the laws on early release. Will they also fund the prison places needed and the Parole Board and the probation service? Or, having imposed cuts of 40% in their budgets, will they continue with their current policy of demanding a further 5% cut on top?
I've been offered a transfer/promotion at work, one option is to go live and work in Edinburgh, the option is to work and live in London.
I did five years in London, and didn't develop an accent.
Just a bit of fun, beer money only. DYOR.
Once they've been sentenced, that kinda ends the role of the judge.
Apparently I'm very impressive in my job.
"The Kensington Milkbar sold milk-plus, milk plus GM Soya or Corn Syrup or Chlorinated Chicken, which is what we were drinking. This would sharpen you up and make you ready for a bit of the old No-deal Brexit."
Not many people open a report with 'Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt.'
What's Mrs P going to think when she does the weekly review of my search history? 😱
Was he let out early?
‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’ I suspect many MPs are also guided by the latter maxim.
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/06/30/if-boris-johnson-tries-to-deliver-on-his-promise-of-a-no-deal-brexit-on-halloween-then-a-vote-of-no-confidence-seems-inevitable/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmmVD_YrK-Y