Interesting caucugoer survey: “ More than 4 in 10 caucusgoers said a woman would have a hard time defeating Trump. Almost 6 in 10 said the same of a gay candidate.”
Apparently 35% of people are first time caucus goers, compared to 44% first timers in 2016. Which seems to suggest that once you stand in a room for 3 hours to vote once there's a good chance you swear off it in future years!
All the beeb folks are making a big deal of a pop concert organized by Bernie's campaign on Saturday which attracted 3000 people. What they don't mention is that Trump was in Des Moines Thursday and got 9000 inside and several thousand crowded outside.
So? I don’t think anyone’s expecting Iowa to be Democratic pick-up in November.
It's a possible. The match-ups have it as close if Buttigieg is the nominee, but on-one else gets particularly close.
All the beeb folks are making a big deal of a pop concert organized by Bernie's campaign on Saturday which attracted 3000 people. What they don't mention is that Trump was in Des Moines Thursday and got 9000 inside and several thousand crowded outside.
So? I don’t think anyone’s expecting Iowa to be Democratic pick-up in November.
It's a possible. The match-ups have it as close if Buttigieg is the nominee, but on-one else gets particularly close.
Also a stretch Senate race that Dems don't expect to win but could in a strong night.
If the race becomes Sanders vs Buttigieg, with Biden a distant third, there will be tremendous pressure on Biden from the party establishment to drop out.
If the race becomes Sanders vs Buttigieg, with Biden a distant third, there will be tremendous pressure on Biden from the party establishment to drop out.
Nope, as long as Biden gets third and Buttigieg wins then Biden becomes the nominee.
But if Biden comes 4th or 5th, even if Sanders loses then Biden will lose the nomination.
Lol at Bloomberg slipping for the nomination on Betfair, despite the early results being as good as he could hope for (Biden 3rd or 4th, no clear winner).
Lol at Bloomberg slipping for the nomination on Betfair, despite the early results being as good as he could hope for (Biden 3rd or 4th, no clear winner).
Not sure what these Bloomberg 7/1 backers are on, to be honest. makes them rather unpredictable
A position which changes a lot on second alignment. I think the difference will narrow though
Second alignment right now.
Buttigieg, Pete 27.59%
Sanders, Bernie 23.2%
Biden, Joe 16.73%
Warren, Elizabeth 16.11%
Klobuchar, Amy 16.08%
No-one is dropping out before SC on those numbers. 6 (7 with Steyer?) candidates for Super Tuesday, and potentially the 360 delegates the week after could make this really interesting.
A position which changes a lot on second alignment. I think the difference will narrow though
Second alignment right now.
Buttigieg, Pete 27.59%
Sanders, Bernie 23.2%
Biden, Joe 16.73%
Warren, Elizabeth 16.11%
Klobuchar, Amy 16.08%
No-one is dropping out before SC on those numbers. 6 (7 with Steyer?) candidates for Super Tuesday, and potentially the 360 delegates the week after could make this really interesting.
Forget speculating right now, we are at 1.8% In on First votes and 1.4% with Second votes.
This time in 2016 80% of the vote had already being counted, this is a logistical disaster.
At this rate it might take them until Friday to finish counting.
A position which changes a lot on second alignment. I think the difference will narrow though
Second alignment right now.
Buttigieg, Pete 27.59%
Sanders, Bernie 23.2%
Biden, Joe 16.73%
Warren, Elizabeth 16.11%
Klobuchar, Amy 16.08%
No-one is dropping out before SC on those numbers. 6 (7 with Steyer?) candidates for Super Tuesday, and potentially the 360 delegates the week after could make this really interesting.
Forget speculating right now, we are at 1.8% In on First votes and 1.4% with Second votes.
This time in 2016 80% of the vote had already being counted, this is a logistical disaster.
At this rate it might take them until Friday to finish counting.
Because they didn't report first preferences last time. This will all come in suddenly.
A position which changes a lot on second alignment. I think the difference will narrow though
Second alignment right now.
Buttigieg, Pete 27.59%
Sanders, Bernie 23.2%
Biden, Joe 16.73%
Warren, Elizabeth 16.11%
Klobuchar, Amy 16.08%
No-one is dropping out before SC on those numbers. 6 (7 with Steyer?) candidates for Super Tuesday, and potentially the 360 delegates the week after could make this really interesting.
Forget speculating right now, we are at 1.8% In on First votes and 1.4% with Second votes.
This time in 2016 80% of the vote had already being counted, this is a logistical disaster.
At this rate it might take them until Friday to finish counting.
Because they didn't report first preferences last time. This will all come in suddenly.
But they dud have to *count* first preferences last time.
These will come at once because the earlier results are effectively being held back
I've now been watching CNN for 2 hours and the main thing I've learned is I should talk to my doctor about a new skin cream which offers unparalleled results for a variety of conditions...
So I guess for people who were wondering how the Dems are going to manage to lose to a criminal reality TV star who is clearly mentally unwell, the answer seems to be: They're going to have a nominee supported by like 30% of their voters, and the other 70% are going to think they were cheated.
So I guess for people who were wondering how the Dems are going to manage to lose to a criminal reality TV star who is clearly mentally unwell, the answer seems to be: They're going to have a nominee supported by like 30% of their voters, and the other 70% are going to think they were cheated.
Rumours going around that the caucus will have to be repeated again Tommorow because the results cant be processed.
I don't believe they'd do that. The accusations of bias against whoever looked to have won tonight, plus the results do exist since the physical caucusing went mostly normal. It may take all day tomorrow but they can surely get the results from the precinct people.
Klobuchar doing the smart thing and just giving a speech anyway. Give a positive speech, no-one can prove you haven't outperformed expectations, and get a few hours sleep.
Rumours going around that the caucus will have to be repeated again Tommorow because the results cant be processed.
I don't believe they'd do that. The accusations of bias against whoever looked to have won tonight, plus the results do exist since the physical caucusing went mostly normal. It may take all day tomorrow but they can surely get the results from the precinct people.
Well what is going around, and there is a lot of conflicting information, is that the Mobile Phone App for the Caucus they used crashed and the results were either gone or corrupted.
I made the right call by booking Tuesday off work, my mistake was setting my alarm for 1.30am to watch the results when I could have gotten up at my normal time!
Rumours going around that the caucus will have to be repeated again Tommorow because the results cant be processed.
I don't believe they'd do that. The accusations of bias against whoever looked to have won tonight, plus the results do exist since the physical caucusing went mostly normal. It may take all day tomorrow but they can surely get the results from the precinct people.
Well what is going around, and there is a lot of conflicting information, is that the Mobile Phone App for the Caucus they used crashed and the results were either gone or corrupted.
A new angle for the forthcoming pb thread, Electronic Voting: what could go wrong? Spoiler: everything.
"Results from Iowa's caucuses, the first vote in the race to pick a Democratic White House candidate, have been plunged into chaos by apparent technology issues.
The state's Democratic party said it had found "inconsistencies"."
But by which metric? Most delegates, most initial votes, most after realignment? How does he know? Has his twitter account been hacked? Or is he just making the claim and will worry about the details later?
Still, Iowa is taking security a step further this year, and for the first time in the state’s history caucus attendees will have to fill out a “presidential preference card” to document their choice. These cards, which will be individually numbered and have other security features, are intended to offer the caucuses some form of a “paper trail” that election security experts say is vital to protecting results.
Additionally, while the caucuses have relied on mobile apps to record and tabulate results in the past, the Iowa Democratic Party is using a new app this year that has been tested and verified by both security experts and the Department of Homeland Security. Described as a “fancy calculator,” the app will help precinct chairs tabulate results during each phase of the caucus, and then send results to the Iowa Democratic Party headquarters. (For those chairs who don’t feel comfortable with an app, the traditional phone hotline will still be operating.)
The Iowa result is far more about momentum than it is about delegates. Buttigieg is giving himself a boost until the real totals are tabulated.
After the results from the app are immediately transmitted to the party’s headquarters, a team of officials there will review them to look for possible outlier results. Each official will have a set of historical results and models that will help identify any result that looks suspicious; if a precinct has traditionally had a turnout of roughly 50 percent and results come in showing 98 percent, the team will be able to investigate.
“We knew that technology gave us some opportunities in this process, but with those opportunities came different challenges,” said Troy Price, the chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. He said that the preference cards were a “clear way of double-checking and verifying results” and noted that the level of data preparation was more extensive than in recent years.
“We have been very diligent about doing our modeling and figuring out exactly what projected turnout could be at different levels,” Mr. Price said. “So we’ll be able to see if things look wildly incongruent from what we would expect.”
So I guess they were paranoid about hacking, so they put in a bunch of checks to detect anomalies. And either it showed some false positive or this process is always full of little screw-ups, and they detected the screw-ups and stopped the process, when normally they'd just go with whatever they'd got and worry about it later if the numbers were wrong (see Romney vs Santorum).
But by which metric? Most delegates, most initial votes, most after realignment? How does he know? Has his twitter account been hacked? Or is he just making the claim and will worry about the details later?
This is why electronic voting is a bad idea folks.
Nothing wrong with the basic idea. It's the implementation which is rubbish. Strikes me someone has been too clever by half, as the saying goes.
Good ideas which have a high chance of being badly implemented are bad ideas.
It’s why conservatism (small c) is such an enduring political force.
What is really worrying is that the Democrats, who aspire to government in one of the most significant countries of the world, have made such a mess of things.
Got to think that the next Presidential Election is going to be one of the most dangerous points in recent American political history. When all the warnings about US voting systems come home to roost. The potential for legitimately querying the validity of the result is going to be enormous.
As Dave Barry once said, if your car had broken down at the side of the road, a Republican would drive on by, because they were in a hurry to get to an ugly pants night at the country club. A Democrat would stop to help you, but you'd end up with your car on fire.
Comments
Pete 21%
Biden 17%
Warren 17%
Amy 15%
On 1.36% of precincts returning...
“ More than 4 in 10 caucusgoers said a woman would have a hard time defeating Trump. Almost 6 in 10 said the same of a gay candidate.”
But I would also expect him not to be as transfer friendly as Buttigieg.
But if Biden comes 4th or 5th, even if Sanders loses then Biden will lose the nomination.
It's all a mess so far, especially for 3rd place.
With 1.8% in.
Sanders 25%
Warren 21%
Buttigieg 19%
Biden 14%
Klobuchar 13%
This is very very early and the count is unusually very very slow.
Buttigieg, Pete 27.59%
Sanders, Bernie 23.2%
Biden, Joe 16.73%
Warren, Elizabeth 16.11%
Klobuchar, Amy 16.08%
This time in 2016 80% of the vote had already being counted, this is a logistical disaster.
At this rate it might take them until Friday to finish counting.
These will come at once because the earlier results are effectively being held back
https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1224512561883893762
(Sorry, it's been a long night already.)
There are 1732 to go.
At this rate they will finish at around March 23rd.
This is a giant mess that is going to be litigated forever and no one will know who won.
With no winner declared Betfair and Ladbrokes will never pay up.
The only winner tonight was Trump.
Now if you gave me those numbers yesterday I would have said Sanders would have won, and Biden would have come in 4th.
State of Union tomorrow, impeachment next day.
So window for Iowa boost is right now - any delay and it gets lost.
After almost 3 hours 1.9% is in.
Sanders 26%
Warren 22%
Buttigieg 18%
Klobuchar 14%
Biden 13%
Some have tried telephoning results in and they cant get through.
One held on telephone for an hour and then gave result out themselves on twitter.
Sanders +2
Warren +3
Buttigieg +6
Klobuchar -2
Biden -2
Why are left wing parties such a fucking mess the world over?
https://twitter.com/Clay_Masters/status/1224550601146740741?s=19
This sounds fair enough, since at least one nation state with excellent hackers definitely does want to screw things up for them.
https://twitter.com/SabrinaSiddiqui/status/1224554657315524609
Lesson: Always have a paper copy.
https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/1224553569317281792
Have a good rest.
The state's Democratic party said it had found "inconsistencies"."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51367291
https://edition.cnn.com
https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1224563221572608002
The question now is will the Betting Companies refund the money placed on the Caucus if the results are never fully published ?
The path being no usable results?
The California Primary is even worse, last time it took them weeks to count the results, and it has gotten worse since then.
Do not place bets on the California Primary, the chances that they will screw up like Iowa is very very high.
Seriously, this lot couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. No wonder Trump is laughing.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/us/politics/iowa-caucuses-hacking-security.html So I guess they were paranoid about hacking, so they put in a bunch of checks to detect anomalies. And either it showed some false positive or this process is always full of little screw-ups, and they detected the screw-ups and stopped the process, when normally they'd just go with whatever they'd got and worry about it later if the numbers were wrong (see Romney vs Santorum).
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1224565631732809734
Donald J. Trump.
It seems quite possible both Sanders (first round voters) and Pete (State Delegates) will have claim to victory.
This is why electronic voting is a bad idea folks.
It’s why conservatism (small c) is such an enduring political force.
Because, Democrats, at this point it ain't.....