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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair Ed Davey’s odds of winning the LD leadership are ti

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  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    eek said:

    Is this going to be the quality of central office postings over the next 5 years?
    what's the green space above Leeds? I'm guessing the one below Leeds is Wakefield.
    Well it's still the Diocese of Leeds - so Ripon (which definitely doesn't have a Nandos but Harrogate does).
    ah yes. good shout. I should have got that as I visited the cathedral last year.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited January 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Urquhart, I trust you enjoyed your re-education?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Cookie said:

    philiph said:

    I voted for Ed Davey in 2019 when I was still a member (it's lapsed now). I think he's a decent candidate. I don't know anything about Daisy Cooper but as there won't be an election foor 4+ years and the LDs will have very little relevance nationally during that time, the LDs shouldn't be scared of picking her due to inexperience. I don't think the choice of leader will make much difference either way, and LDs are usually better than Labour at removing underperforming leaders if needed.

    Far more influential for the LDs future success will be the new Labour leader, and how they approach the LDs (will Labour back PR, will they try and come to sort sort of election pact etc).

    An election pact with Labour kills LibDems stone dead.

    Given that LibDems are a party to the traditional left of centre the only place they can win significant numbers of seats and become relevant is from areas where Left of centre party(ies) are elected. These are the seats LibDems need to win if they are ever to become an important party.

    They can target a few Tory seats, these will be won and lost over time, they are swing seats. For a long term foothold and power base they have to take seats from Labour (or SNP in Scotland) where the electorate is left leaning and is disenchanted with Labour (the exception may be the red wall seats that fell to the Tories this time).

    Either they target Labour seats or they continue to fluctuate from 8 to 30 seats drone on about electoral reform and how unfair it is without giving either main party a bloody nose and incentive to do anything about electoral reform.

    Left leaning parties win most seats in areas with most left leaning voters. Sure the policy of targeting Labour will cause some odd Tory wins in the cycle to gain relevance. However I would have thought that the cycle of repeating what they do was so clearly a strategy seeped in failure over several election cycles that they would by now have learnt that the enemy is the one who is close to you and pretends to be you friend. Repetition of the same action expecting a different result is often likened to insanity.
    This assumes a reversion to the old 'low income voters vote left, high income voters vote right' model. And also right = low tax, low spend: left = high tax, high spend
    Neither are certain.
    It assumes in a FPTP system you don't have trustworthy friends in other parties. Paddy Ashdown had great hope in Tony Blair, and Cameron duped Clegg into an AV referendum. While the Conservatives at least offered something, Labour treated LibDems in a pretty shoddy way, as they suddenly had no need for 'friends' on the left.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited January 2020
    isam said:

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Tim Montgonerie, a No 10 aide, has said that the UK government should form a "special relationship" with Hungary. Viktor Orban is a brutish, undemocratic anti-Semite. If Montgonerie stays in his role it will completely undermine any goodwill Boris has made with Jews in this country in recent weeks.

    I wouldn't worry about it. Boris's New Populist Conservatives tend to be Islamophobic and by extension are, or become, semitophilic. I doubt any antisemite will be given houseroom therein. Montgomerie will in future be careful only to attack approved targets, and you're not on that list for the foreseeable.
    Cons (or right wing, "traditional" ones) tend to like Jews institutionally (ie they are supporters of Israel) but to not be so keen on them individually.

    Lab of course the opposite.
    I'm genuinely puzzled that anyone British could find Jews 'other' enough to be prejudiced about them. It's like harbouring a prejudice against men called Keith.
    Muslims and Jews have been at each others throats since the dawn of time haven't they? Lefties (the extreme left) take Palestine's side over Israel and the anti-semitism is a derivative of that
    Anti-semitism long predated the arrival of Muslims. And plenty of people are on the Palestinian side without being anti-Semitic. Lisa Nandy, for instance, is chair of Labour Friends of Palestine, and has never been accused of being an anti-Semite and has managed to avoid behaving like Corbyn over the issue.

    Support for Palestine is often a pretext to justify pre-existing anti-semitism.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I doubt the identity of the Lib Dem leader matters all that much. Ed Davey wouldn't frighten the horses and that might well be all they need right now.

    They look set to repeat the mistake they made in 2015 though, of choosing their leader before Labour chooses theirs. They would do better to see where the gap in the market is.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Gabs3 said:

    I have little background on her, but the LibDems could do worse than Daisy. She at least seems to know how to campaign.

    The LibDems dodged a bullet when Layla didn't stand last time. Just a shame they decided to walk into a dum-dum instead.

    I think Jo Swinson has been unfairly maligned. She was largely screwed by forces beyond her control.
    One of which was sadly her own very limited competence !
    Competence didn't seem to be much of a factor. After all, a lot of people voted for the self harm inflicting Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson, an inveterate liar and charlatan. In reality of course, they were voting against Mr Thicky, the worst LoTO in the history of this once great nation.
    I see you have taken it well, discovering that nobody in the Conservative Party misses you one little bit?

    Meantime, we are enjoying having power.

    "Let's have a look at what you could have won...."
    I wonder what the likes of David Gauke and Philip Hammond are thinking? They are presumably happy that we have avoided a no-deal Brexit. This is what they said they wanted. So they must surely have some regrets, yes?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    edited January 2020

    Mr. Urquhart, I trust you enjoyed your re-education?

    Funny you should say that....that is another thing they were banging on about, how there needs to be far better education of the public about politics via workshops / education programmes, so they stop getting some many things wrong.
  • Jess Philips drowning on GMB
    https://youtu.be/in6Bv52gNDU

    Rejoiners is going to be the next incarnation of the Remain, 2nd Referendum, People Votes. I notice that Bad Al the other day was still claiming that Remain definitely would have won another vote and that the trend was all with the Remain side and that is why Boris had a GE.

    Let's see if we can guess how it might split (because split it will):

    "Bollocks to Brexit" (young, centre-left-wing, lie down in front of tractors - focussed on the economy)
    "Rewoke" (radical left - focussed on social issues, pro-immigration)
    "Business for (E)U" (center-right, big business)
    "the Council for Greater Co-operation" (centre-left and green)
    "Let Britain lead" (counter-intuitive older rightwing now the establishment is pro-Brexit)

  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
    Let s hope she serves time then as a warning to others
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Tim Montgonerie, a No 10 aide, has said that the UK government should form a "special relationship" with Hungary. Viktor Orban is a brutish, undemocratic anti-Semite. If Montgonerie stays in his role it will completely undermine any goodwill Boris has made with Jews in this country in recent weeks.

    I wouldn't worry about it. Boris's New Populist Conservatives tend to be Islamophobic and by extension are, or become, semitophilic. I doubt any antisemite will be given houseroom therein. Montgomerie will in future be careful only to attack approved targets, and you're not on that list for the foreseeable.
    Cons (or right wing, "traditional" ones) tend to like Jews institutionally (ie they are supporters of Israel) but to not be so keen on them individually.

    Lab of course the opposite.
    I'm genuinely puzzled that anyone British could find Jews 'other' enough to be prejudiced about them. It's like harbouring a prejudice against men called Keith.
    Muslims and Jews have been at each others throats since the dawn of time haven't they? Lefties (the extreme left) take Palestine's side over Israel and the anti-semitism is a derivative of that
    Anti-semitism long predated the arrival of Muslims. And plenty of people are on the Palestinian side without being anti-Semitic. Lisa Nandy, for instance, is chair of Labour Friends of Palestine, and has never been accused of being an anti-Semite and has managed to avoid behaving like Corbyn over the issue.

    Support for Palestine is often a pretext to justify pre-existing anti-semitism.
    We know how PB loves a poll!

    "...when questioned about whether they (British people) agreed with a number of statements, including "Jews think they are better than other people", and "Jews exploit holocaust victimhood for their own purposes", 30% agreed with at least one statement.

    They found more than half of Muslims (55%) held at least one anti-Semitic attitude"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41241353

    So almost double the national average, an average which included Muslims so actually it is way over double
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    malcolmg said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    Moron you should be ashamed of yourself, it was a kangaroo court, absolutely no justice served in this case.
    Reporting of cases such as this always make me a tad uneasy. On one hand, we must shine a light on possible miscarriages of justice - they can and do happen and it has only been through campaigners’ perseverance and media attention that those wrongly convicted have been cleared.

    On the other hand, there is at times a tendency in the media to whip up a narrative against foreign justice systems for jingoistic purposes which creates a media circus.

    I post the above with no particular comment on this actual case, whose facts I have not followed closely.
    A lot of the commentary on this case has missed relevant facts, or plain made up facts to support a viewpoint.

    This American lady commentator tried to work through facts reported from the trial in various reputable news sources and pull them together. It's certainly not the clear miscarriage of justice that's been portrayed in certain areas of the media, but it's also not a clear cut conviction and there are reasonable questions to answer about the process.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tieu8NoH_XU

    The most likely explanation is that the lady realised that a trial was going to be difficult and time consuming for her, and she thought that retracting her complaint would close the case (as would most likely happen in the UK) - rather than generating a complaint against her for an offence similar to wasting police time.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    On topic, Ed Davey for leader. Sensible. Something to be thankful for in these febrile times. No idea about this Daisy woman. Definitely not Layla. All this rubbish gender stuff from the Lib Dems is very off-putting.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    I doubt the identity of the Lib Dem leader matters all that much. Ed Davey wouldn't frighten the horses and that might well be all they need right now.

    They look set to repeat the mistake they made in 2015 though, of choosing their leader before Labour chooses theirs. They would do better to see where the gap in the market is.

    I agree with your first point but not the second. I think parties should stop looking for gaps in markets. Tony Benn used to talk of two types of politicians: weather-cocks and signposts. We need more signposts. The LDs should set out what is meant by liberalism and, if they do it well, the voters will come to them.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    It gives Cyprus one final chance to rescue half it's tourist industry - otherwise all female groups will be going anywhere except Cyprus for the next 10+ years.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited January 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    On topic, Ed Davey for leader. Sensible. Something to be thankful for in these febrile times. No idea about this Daisy woman. Definitely not Layla. All this rubbish gender stuff from the Lib Dems is very off-putting.

    Indeed, so off-putting as to make me desert the LDs at the GE.
  • Stocky said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I have little background on her, but the LibDems could do worse than Daisy. She at least seems to know how to campaign.

    The LibDems dodged a bullet when Layla didn't stand last time. Just a shame they decided to walk into a dum-dum instead.

    I think Jo Swinson has been unfairly maligned. She was largely screwed by forces beyond her control.
    One of which was sadly her own very limited competence !
    Competence didn't seem to be much of a factor. After all, a lot of people voted for the self harm inflicting Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson, an inveterate liar and charlatan. In reality of course, they were voting against Mr Thicky, the worst LoTO in the history of this once great nation.
    I see you have taken it well, discovering that nobody in the Conservative Party misses you one little bit?

    Meantime, we are enjoying having power.

    "Let's have a look at what you could have won...."
    I wonder what the likes of David Gauke and Philip Hammond are thinking? They are presumably happy that we have avoided a no-deal Brexit. This is what they said they wanted. So they must surely have some regrets, yes?
    I am very comfortable in the knowledge that a) we do not have Corbyn as PM, and b) that I did not vote for Johnson (who was only slightly less unsuitable than Corbyn) and c) that I am no longer in a party that is no longer genuinely conservative and is now dominated by numpties and swiveleyed peabrains like "MarqueeMark" who are so dumb that they think "get Brexit done" is either desirable or particularly deliverable. You are most welcome to be running the madhouse, I will continue to snigger at you from the outside.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Stocky said:

    I doubt the identity of the Lib Dem leader matters all that much. Ed Davey wouldn't frighten the horses and that might well be all they need right now.

    They look set to repeat the mistake they made in 2015 though, of choosing their leader before Labour chooses theirs. They would do better to see where the gap in the market is.

    I agree with your first point but not the second. I think parties should stop looking for gaps in markets. Tony Benn used to talk of two types of politicians: weather-cocks and signposts. We need more signposts. The LDs should set out what is meant by liberalism and, if they do it well, the voters will come to them.
    If Labour find themselves with a lantern-jawed statesmanlike leader with an emphasis on stolidity over radicalism, it will be unfortunate if the Lib Dems also have a lantern-jawed statesmanlike leader with an emphasis on stolidity over radicalism. The Lib Dems being in third place do not have the luxury of taking a line completely detached from what else is going on in politics.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited January 2020

    Stocky said:

    I doubt the identity of the Lib Dem leader matters all that much. Ed Davey wouldn't frighten the horses and that might well be all they need right now.

    They look set to repeat the mistake they made in 2015 though, of choosing their leader before Labour chooses theirs. They would do better to see where the gap in the market is.

    I agree with your first point but not the second. I think parties should stop looking for gaps in markets. Tony Benn used to talk of two types of politicians: weather-cocks and signposts. We need more signposts. The LDs should set out what is meant by liberalism and, if they do it well, the voters will come to them.
    If Labour find themselves with a lantern-jawed statesmanlike leader with an emphasis on stolidity over radicalism, it will be unfortunate if the Lib Dems also have a lantern-jawed statesmanlike leader with an emphasis on stolidity over radicalism. The Lib Dems being in third place do not have the luxury of taking a line completely detached from what else is going on in politics.
    Sadly the Lib Dems can't wait until April to discover who wins the Labour leadership and pick the complimentary rather than identical option.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Stocky said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I have little background on her, but the LibDems could do worse than Daisy. She at least seems to know how to campaign.

    The LibDems dodged a bullet when Layla didn't stand last time. Just a shame they decided to walk into a dum-dum instead.

    I think Jo Swinson has been unfairly maligned. She was largely screwed by forces beyond her control.
    One of which was sadly her own very limited competence !
    Competence didn't seem to be much of a factor. After all, a lot of people voted for the self harm inflicting Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson, an inveterate liar and charlatan. In reality of course, they were voting against Mr Thicky, the worst LoTO in the history of this once great nation.
    I see you have taken it well, discovering that nobody in the Conservative Party misses you one little bit?

    Meantime, we are enjoying having power.

    "Let's have a look at what you could have won...."
    I wonder what the likes of David Gauke and Philip Hammond are thinking? They are presumably happy that we have avoided a no-deal Brexit. This is what they said they wanted. So they must surely have some regrets, yes?
    I am very comfortable in the knowledge that a) we do not have Corbyn as PM, and b) that I did not vote for Johnson (who was only slightly less unsuitable than Corbyn) and c) that I am no longer in a party that is no longer genuinely conservative and is now dominated by numpties and swiveleyed peabrains like "MarqueeMark" who are so dumb that they think "get Brexit done" is either desirable or particularly deliverable. You are most welcome to be running the madhouse, I will continue to snigger at you from the outside.
    Hahahahahahahahahaha.

    Drowning in your tears......
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On Layla Moran, Dorothy L Sayers' words spring to mind:

    As I grow older and older,
    And totter toward the tomb,
    I find that I care less and less
    Who goes to bed with whom.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Gabs3 said:

    I have little background on her, but the LibDems could do worse than Daisy. She at least seems to know how to campaign.

    The LibDems dodged a bullet when Layla didn't stand last time. Just a shame they decided to walk into a dum-dum instead.

    I think Jo Swinson has been unfairly maligned. She was largely screwed by forces beyond her control.
    Revoke? Beyond her control?

    "Prime Minister Jo Swinson"? Beyond her control?

    Yes, I can see why she got nowhere, having so little control over her destiny....
    Wasn't "Prime Minister Jo Swinson" on the advice of polling experts?
    The Sunday after the election the SLD PR dunderheid on the wireless said that the whole “Prime Minister Jo Swinson” guff was her own idea! And she was proud of it!?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Stocky said:

    I doubt the identity of the Lib Dem leader matters all that much. Ed Davey wouldn't frighten the horses and that might well be all they need right now.

    They look set to repeat the mistake they made in 2015 though, of choosing their leader before Labour chooses theirs. They would do better to see where the gap in the market is.

    I agree with your first point but not the second. I think parties should stop looking for gaps in markets. Tony Benn used to talk of two types of politicians: weather-cocks and signposts. We need more signposts. The LDs should set out what is meant by liberalism and, if they do it well, the voters will come to them.
    If Labour find themselves with a lantern-jawed statesmanlike leader with an emphasis on stolidity over radicalism, it will be unfortunate if the Lib Dems also have a lantern-jawed statesmanlike leader with an emphasis on stolidity over radicalism. The Lib Dems being in third place do not have the luxury of taking a line completely detached from what else is going on in politics.
    But the Lib Dems aren't competing with Labour...or are they? If ever there was an election at which the Lib Dems could take the fight to Labour, especially in London, it was 2019. It didn't happen. So I think the Lib Dems should go for Davey as someone who could win over Tories in Southern England.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    tlg86 said:

    Stocky said:

    I doubt the identity of the Lib Dem leader matters all that much. Ed Davey wouldn't frighten the horses and that might well be all they need right now.

    They look set to repeat the mistake they made in 2015 though, of choosing their leader before Labour chooses theirs. They would do better to see where the gap in the market is.

    I agree with your first point but not the second. I think parties should stop looking for gaps in markets. Tony Benn used to talk of two types of politicians: weather-cocks and signposts. We need more signposts. The LDs should set out what is meant by liberalism and, if they do it well, the voters will come to them.
    If Labour find themselves with a lantern-jawed statesmanlike leader with an emphasis on stolidity over radicalism, it will be unfortunate if the Lib Dems also have a lantern-jawed statesmanlike leader with an emphasis on stolidity over radicalism. The Lib Dems being in third place do not have the luxury of taking a line completely detached from what else is going on in politics.
    But the Lib Dems aren't competing with Labour...or are they? If ever there was an election at which the Lib Dems could take the fight to Labour, especially in London, it was 2019. It didn't happen. So I think the Lib Dems should go for Davey as someone who could win over Tories in Southern England.
    Now would be the time for the Lib Dems and Centrist Labour to merge, and start something like ChangeUK. Why compete?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    tlg86 said:

    Stocky said:

    I doubt the identity of the Lib Dem leader matters all that much. Ed Davey wouldn't frighten the horses and that might well be all they need right now.

    They look set to repeat the mistake they made in 2015 though, of choosing their leader before Labour chooses theirs. They would do better to see where the gap in the market is.

    I agree with your first point but not the second. I think parties should stop looking for gaps in markets. Tony Benn used to talk of two types of politicians: weather-cocks and signposts. We need more signposts. The LDs should set out what is meant by liberalism and, if they do it well, the voters will come to them.
    If Labour find themselves with a lantern-jawed statesmanlike leader with an emphasis on stolidity over radicalism, it will be unfortunate if the Lib Dems also have a lantern-jawed statesmanlike leader with an emphasis on stolidity over radicalism. The Lib Dems being in third place do not have the luxury of taking a line completely detached from what else is going on in politics.
    But the Lib Dems aren't competing with Labour...or are they? If ever there was an election at which the Lib Dems could take the fight to Labour, especially in London, it was 2019. It didn't happen. So I think the Lib Dems should go for Davey as someone who could win over Tories in Southern England.
    All the Lib Dem’s best target seats are in southern England. In Scotland they are shafted. 2015 holed them badly, but I’m starting to think that it was below the waterline as far as the SLDs are concerned.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Also on the subject of Brits abroad - this case is making news in the sandpit today, alongside comment that it only ever seems to be British women involved in such things.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/07/woman-headbutted-medic-flight-scenes-worse-anything-seen-ae/
  • Gabs3 said:

    I have little background on her, but the LibDems could do worse than Daisy. She at least seems to know how to campaign.

    The LibDems dodged a bullet when Layla didn't stand last time. Just a shame they decided to walk into a dum-dum instead.

    I think Jo Swinson has been unfairly maligned. She was largely screwed by forces beyond her control.
    If one of those uncontrollable forces was PM-in-waiting Jo's ego, I agree.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
    Let s hope she serves time then as a warning to others
    Why don’t you think that the rape allegation should be investigated?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    TOPPING said:

    Anecdata with some betting relevance: normally my constituency gets a trickle of 2-3 new members each month, balancing 2-3 drifting away. This month, we had FIFTY-TWO. new members (with again two moving away) If that's typical, we have just got 30,000 new members nationally.

    I have no idea of their political leanings/leadership preferences, of course, though it seems reasonable to suppose that as they were not members before they are not especially Corbynite.

    Once the poison is out, Nick, the host recovers.
    Theresa?
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
    Let s hope she serves time then as a warning to others
    Why don’t you think that the rape allegation should be investigated?
    It was investigated- she reported it to the police and was caught and sentenced.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
    Let s hope she serves time then as a warning to others
    Why don’t you think that the rape allegation should be investigated?
    It was investigated- she reported it to the police and was caught and sentenced.

    And as I stated early, with it the Cypriot Holiday business collapses.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2020
    The LibDems should undoubtedly have chosen Ed Davey last time (well, I did say so ...), but this time the circumstances are very different. Last time they needed someone who could step straight in to a complex political challenge with direct policy issues, and who could handle a position where the LibDems might have been significant swing votes in parliament. So they needed a safe pair of hands, someone experienced at a high level, and credible immediately on policy. In other words, not Jo Swinson.

    Now they are in a very bad way, but they do have the luxury of time. They can't do anything either way in the short term, their irrelevance is total for now. So they should be thinking four to five years ahead, This could be an opportunity for a new leader to take the party in a fresh direction. I've no idea whether Daisy Cooper would be any good at that, but I suspect Layla Moran would be a very bad choice. Maybe sticking with Ed Davey as a kind of caretaker to steady the ship and set up the conditions for others to gain experience would be best, but they do need to renew at some point.
  • eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
    Let s hope she serves time then as a warning to others
    Why don’t you think that the rape allegation should be investigated?
    It was investigated- she reported it to the police and was caught and sentenced.

    And as I stated early, with it the Cypriot Holiday business collapses.
    Sorry - I was under the misapprehension that people (esp here) - liked JUSTICE

  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    edited January 2020


    I think the dismissal of "continuity Corbynism" fails to pay enough heed to how much of Corbyn's toxicity was personal.

    I'm not writing as a fan of his policy platform either.. but if even 5-10 points of the Anyone But Corbyn score was down to wreath-laying and IRA and Venezuela (and probably just secondhand tabloid perceptions at that), it's not a bad base to start from. There was a Yougov showing stronger-than-I-expected support for some of his policies when tested in isolation from personalities.

    I think it is a huge mistake to take the supposed popularity of particular policies and conclude change is needed in the figurehead, but not in the policies.

    People like free stuff, and free stuff polls well. But that isn't how most people decide. They form an impression of the party and the sort of government it will form. Competent? Achievable goals? Focused? United? In touch?

    Labour's blizzard of commitments were individually popular but collectively disastrous. The overarching impression was that they didn't know their priorities and were fiscally incontinent. A lot of it felt unrealistic - huge ambitions in the hands of people who couldn't even deal with basic party discipline... you had to wonder whether any of it was going to happen.

    Look at Labour's pledge card from 1997. It was rather modest, but gave clear indications of the sort of administration people could expect:

    1. Cut class sizes to 30 for 5, 6 and 7 year olds using money from the assisted places scheme. This only covers three school years - but that helps it to look achievable and says education is a priority.

    2. Fast track punishment for persistent young offenders - a pitch to both traditional Labour and soft Tories, but rather limited... not a huge and costly ambition to transform the justice system.

    3. Cut NHS waiting lists by treating an extra 100,000 patients as a first step by releasing £100m saved from NHS red tape. This was chump change even 20 years ago - but it said NHS was a priority and a start would be made.

    4. Get 250,000 under-25s off benefit and into work via a windfall levy on privatised utilities. This was probably the most controversial on the card. But it wasn't some massive plan to turn back the clock - it was a nod that the privatised industries could expect a tougher line for the public benefit.

    5. No rise in income tax rates, and cut VAT on fuel. This was about removing the fear factor - proudly unexciting, steady as she goes but taking steps on education, crime, health and employment as above.

    A pledge card now may very well have different priorities (e.g. there was no environment pledge in 1997). But it'd be wise to be quite modest to give the impression of being focused and realistic.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Anecdata with some betting relevance: normally my constituency gets a trickle of 2-3 new members each month, balancing 2-3 drifting away. This month, we had FIFTY-TWO. new members (with again two moving away) If that's typical, we have just got 30,000 new members nationally.

    I have no idea of their political leanings/leadership preferences, of course, though it seems reasonable to suppose that as they were not members before they are not especially Corbynite.

    Once the poison is out, Nick, the host recovers.
    Theresa?
    More a dead leg.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    England get de Kock out!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited January 2020

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
    Let s hope she serves time then as a warning to others
    Why don’t you think that the rape allegation should be investigated?
    It was investigated- she reported it to the police and was caught and sentenced.

    And as I stated early, with it the Cypriot Holiday business collapses.
    Sorry - I was under the misapprehension that people (esp here) - liked JUSTICE

    It is the lack of justice which is behind the forthcoming collapse of the Cypriot holiday market.

    This is a girl who claims to have given consent for sex with 1 person yet had the semen of 4 different men inside her - usually where such things occur money and consent forms exist.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    edited January 2020


    I think the dismissal of "continuity Corbynism" fails to pay enough heed to how much of Corbyn's toxicity was personal.

    I'm not writing as a fan of his policy platform either.. but if even 5-10 points of the Anyone But Corbyn score was down to wreath-laying and IRA and Venezuela (and probably just secondhand tabloid perceptions at that), it's not a bad base to start from. There was a Yougov showing stronger-than-I-expected support for some of his policies when tested in isolation from personalities.

    People like free stuff, and free stuff polls well. But that isn't how most people decide. They form an impression of the party and the sort of government it will form. Competent? Achievable goals? Focused? United? In touch?

    It is also how it will be achieved. People liked the idea of free broadband, then they found it out it meant putting 200 ISPs out of business and you having to have the government run ISP.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    justin124 said:

    Alastair Meeks said
    ' Jeremy Corbyn just led Labour to its most crushing defeat in our lifetimes. Racking up a good vote count did him no good whatsoever because a lot more people voted in a way to keep him out of power. This isn't flowery language. That is, as you would say, a raw fact.

    You're assuming that his own vote count was down to him rather than greater antipathy to his opponent. I suggest that is a brave assumption.'

    In England and Wales it was a far less crushing defeat than 1983 and 1987. Moreover, Labour did win 15 seats last month which were won by the Tories in the 2015 election - and also held on to Sheffield Hallam. Over a five year period it has been far from being one way traffic. Overall I believe Labour finds itself better placed than post 1987 - and faces a 1992 type challenge at the next election.

    Lol - aren't you forgetting 'incumbency' - very odd since you went on and on about it so much before the election along with your credentials as a renowned psephologist. :smiley:
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested ing considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
    Let s hope she serves time then as a warning to others
    Why don’t you think that the rape allegation should be investigated?
    It was investigated- she reported it to the police and was caught and sentenced.

    And as I stated early, with it the Cypriot Holiday business collapses.
    Sorry - I was under the misapprehension that people (esp here) - liked JUSTICE

    It is the lack of justice which is behind the forthcoming collapse of the Cypriot holiday market.

    This is a girl who claims to have given consent for sex with 1 person yet had the semen of 4 different men inside - usually where such things occur money and consent forms exist.
    You don t get to pick and choose justice mate - it s the police and courts that dish it out

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Endillion said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    I'm pretty sure we'd see a lot more retractions in the UK if rape victims were aggressively interrogated for eight hours at a time without legal counsel...

    As a general principle, it's a good idea to have some information on the facts of the case before sounding off.
    Going the other way from Gabs3 Equally it does seem to be that Cyprus believes once consent is given - that consent is for all men for all time.

    In my case the holiday villa in Cyprus plan has been thrown out - probably back to looking at Turkey or Portugal.
    Do you think Turkey is more liberal and enlightened than Cyprus on this point?
    Bloody furringers - only the Brits know how to do justice :)
  • Incidentally, whilst the fault for the LibDems' predicament lies largely with Jo Swinson, I do think that Vince Cable also deserves a large chunk of the blame. He chose exactly the worst possible moment to trigger a leadership contest, plunging Jo Swinson straight into a situation for which she was woefully ill-prepared.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited January 2020

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested ing considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
    Let s hope she serves time then as a warning to others
    Why don’t you think that the rape allegation should be investigated?
    It was investigated- she reported it to the police and was caught and sentenced.

    And as I stated early, with it the Cypriot Holiday business collapses.
    Sorry - I was under the misapprehension that people (esp here) - liked JUSTICE

    It is the lack of justice which is behind the forthcoming collapse of the Cypriot holiday market.

    This is a girl who claims to have given consent for sex with 1 person yet had the semen of 4 different men inside - usually where such things occur money and consent forms exist.
    You don t get to pick and choose justice mate - it s the police and courts that dish it out

    The courts dish it out - foreigners then decide whether its worth visiting that country or not based on the decisions of that court.

    And I suspect holiday bookings for Cyprus have collapsed over the past week (Jet2's pricing gives me a clue that that's the case).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    Cricket question - If England bowl 22.4 overs before 18:00 local time is that the end of the match or do they need to "keep going" ?
  • Jess Philips drowning on GMB

    Very sound on Scotchland tho'. Expect a SLab revival 'up there' if the Babster gets in.

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/1214532208419057664?s=20
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Incidentally, whilst the fault for the LibDems' predicament lies largely with Jo Swinson, I do think that Vince Cable also deserves a large chunk of the blame. He chose exactly the worst possible moment to trigger a leadership contest, plunging Jo Swinson straight into a situation for which she was woefully ill-prepared.

    To be fair, Cable was under presure to do so at the time following the disappointment of the 2017 GE.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    It gives Cyprus one final chance to rescue half it's tourist industry - otherwise all female groups will be going anywhere except Cyprus for the next 10+ years.
    If you believe that you are very naive.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited January 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Cricket question - If England bowl 22.4 overs before 18:00 local time is that the end of the match or do they need to "keep going" ?

    I think there's an extra half hour for the bowlers, should they ask and the umps think there's a good chance of a result - probably needs them to be 8 down. Gonna be a close finish, the draw was 3.75 at the start of play.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether orproperly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
    Let s hope she serves time then as a warning to others
    Why don’t you think that the rape allegation should be investigated?
    It was investigated- she reported it to the police and was caught and sentenced.

    And as I stated early, with it the Cypriot Holiday business collapses.
    Sorry - I was under the misapprehension that people (esp here) - liked JUSTICE

    It is the lack of justice which is behind the forthcoming collapse of the Cypriot holiday market.

    This is a girl who claims to have given consent for sex with 1 person yet had the semen of 4 different men inside - usually where such things occur money and consent forms exist.
    You don t get to pick and choose justice mate - it s the police and courts that dish it out

    The courts dish it out - foreigners then decide whether its worth visiting that country or not based on the decisions of that court.

    And I suspect holiday bookings for Cyprus have collapsed over the past week (Jet2's pricing gives me a clue that that's the case).
    Brit justice is best justice eh???

    I think we ve concluded this argument
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Incidentally, whilst the fault for the LibDems' predicament lies largely with Jo Swinson, I do think that Vince Cable also deserves a large chunk of the blame. He chose exactly the worst possible moment to trigger a leadership contest, plunging Jo Swinson straight into a situation for which she was woefully ill-prepared.

    In his defence, he was explicitly a caretaker leader to allow Swinson et al some time to develop, on the assumption that it was a five year Parliament starting in 2017. When he resigned, it still wasn't definite that there was an election coming. And even if it had been, what should he have done - hung on and wound up leading his party into an election when everyone knows he's resigning straight after?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cricket question - If England bowl 22.4 overs before 18:00 local time is that the end of the match or do they need to "keep going" ?

    I think there's an extra half hour for the bowlers, should they ask and the umps think there's a good chance of a result - probably needs them to be 8 down. Gonna be a close finish, the draw was 3.75 at the start of play.
    I ask because it looks like England are up with the over rate in this match which is very very rare.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It may be an unpopular view but, having been a Lib Dem bear since 2010, I believe the Lib Dems have some grounds for optimism after the last election. They went backwards in seat count but they have put themselves into contention in a decent number of seats for the next election. They have long term prospects that could be worked with, especially at such point as the Conservatives fall from grace. 2015 was the disaster from which they are only now starting to recover a little.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited January 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cricket question - If England bowl 22.4 overs before 18:00 local time is that the end of the match or do they need to "keep going" ?

    I think there's an extra half hour for the bowlers, should they ask and the umps think there's a good chance of a result - probably needs them to be 8 down. Gonna be a close finish, the draw was 3.75 at the start of play.
    I ask because it looks like England are up with the over rate in this match which is very very rare.
    That's because Broad keeps flinging them down the off side, and can bowl an over in about three minutes!

    The overs req is I think the minimum requirement, and they play until the scheduled close plus the half hour. Wouldn't bet my house on it though, and Cricinfo commentary hasn't mentioned it yet.

    Much better when there was no ambiguity over time, and they played on the last day until it went dark - what's all this talk of four day Tests about anyway?

    Edit: probably won't matter now, as Broad gets van der Dussen with the nick to slip he's spend the last half an hour trying to entice the batsmen into taking.
  • felix said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    It gives Cyprus one final chance to rescue half it's tourist industry - otherwise all female groups will be going anywhere except Cyprus for the next 10+ years.
    If you believe that you are very naive.
    Somoeone mentioned Turkey as an alternative - the prospects for women are much worse there.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited January 2020

    It may be an unpopular view but, having been a Lib Dem bear since 2010, I believe the Lib Dems have some grounds for optimism after the last election. They went backwards in seat count but they have put themselves into contention in a decent number of seats for the next election. They have long term prospects that could be worked with, especially at such point as the Conservatives fall from grace. 2015 was the disaster from which they are only now starting to recover a little.

    Yes, agreed. LibDems came second in an awful lot of seats. I think Labour will struggle to recover from the collapse of their red wall, and probably never will. I hope to see the day that the Liberals are the challenger party to the Conservatives.
  • Remember when Jezza was banging on about Premier league clubs should become fan owned co-ops...

    Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich paid £247m into the club last season but it still made an overall loss of £96.6m.

    That is the scale of what is required these days.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Remember when Jezza was banging on about Premier league clubs should become fan owned co-ops...

    Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich paid £247m into the club last season but it still made an overall loss of £96.6m.

    That is the scale of what is required these days.

    Sacking managers is an expensive habit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    edited January 2020
    tlg86 said:

    Remember when Jezza was banging on about Premier league clubs should become fan owned co-ops...

    Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich paid £247m into the club last season but it still made an overall loss of £96.6m.

    That is the scale of what is required these days.

    Sacking managers is an expensive habit.
    It is, but player purchases / wages even more so. I believe the average EPL salary is about £4 million a year these days, with the top clubs it is more £6-7 million.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405



    Brit justice is best justice eh???

    I think we ve concluded this argument

    No because you haven't noticed the actual point I'm making - Cyprus can do what it wants (and it has).

    If however it wants a tourist industry in the future it is going to find that not seriously investigating rape cases and charging rape victims with criminal charges discourages people from visiting and / or investing there when other options are available.

    There is a reason why the UK gets a lot of foreign investment - it's because most of the world trusts the English legal system. Lose that trust and people are less willing to invest or move to the UK.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    10 maidens in a row for England now !
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    Alastair Meeks said
    ' Jeremy Corbyn just led Labour to its most crushing defeat in our lifetimes. Racking up a good vote count did him no good whatsoever because a lot more people voted in a way to keep him out of power. This isn't flowery language. That is, as you would say, a raw fact.

    You're assuming that his own vote count was down to him rather than greater antipathy to his opponent. I suggest that is a brave assumption.'

    In England and Wales it was a far less crushing defeat than 1983 and 1987. Moreover, Labour did win 15 seats last month which were won by the Tories in the 2015 election - and also held on to Sheffield Hallam. Over a five year period it has been far from being one way traffic. Overall I believe Labour finds itself better placed than post 1987 - and faces a 1992 type challenge at the next election.

    Lol - aren't you forgetting 'incumbency' - very odd since you went on and on about it so much before the election along with your credentials as a renowned psephologist. :smiley:
    I have not forgotten about it at all - and the fact that - despite a very poor overall result - Labour retained 15 of the seats gained in 2017 rather vindicates my point there.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    tlg86 said:

    Remember when Jezza was banging on about Premier league clubs should become fan owned co-ops...

    Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich paid £247m into the club last season but it still made an overall loss of £96.6m.

    That is the scale of what is required these days.

    Sacking managers is an expensive habit.
    It is, but player purchases / wages even more so. I believe the average EPL salary is about £4 million a year these days, with the top clubs it is more £6-7 million.
    Sacking a manager is only going to cost the rest of the contract every time you sack someone.

    And Chelsea only had to pay 1 years salary to Antonio Conte as he was in the final year of his 3 year contract and Maurizio Sarri left to join Juventus. So I don't think it's managers at the moment.
  • eek said:



    Brit justice is best justice eh???

    I think we ve concluded this argument

    No because you haven't noticed the actual point I'm making - Cyprus can do what it wants (and it has).

    If however it wants a tourist industry in the future it is going to find that not seriously investigating rape cases and charging rape victims with criminal charges discourages people from visiting and / or investing there when other options are available.

    There is a reason why the UK gets a lot of foreign investment - it's because most of the world trusts the English legal system. Lose that trust and people are less willing to invest or move to the UK.
    She wasn t a “rape victim” she s a “rape liar” - this has been proven in court
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    edited January 2020
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Remember when Jezza was banging on about Premier league clubs should become fan owned co-ops...

    Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich paid £247m into the club last season but it still made an overall loss of £96.6m.

    That is the scale of what is required these days.

    Sacking managers is an expensive habit.
    It is, but player purchases / wages even more so. I believe the average EPL salary is about £4 million a year these days, with the top clubs it is more £6-7 million.
    Sacking a manager is only going to cost the rest of the contract every time you sack someone.

    And Chelsea only had to pay 1 years salary to Antonio Conte as he was in the final year of his 3 year contract and Maurizio Sarri left to join Juventus. So I don't think it's managers at the moment.
    I think in the BBC report it said it cost £26 million to sack Conte and his team. At the same time, they increased wage bill by £41 million during 2019, and spent £280 million on player purchases.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,219
    I have no special insight, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ed Davey was the only runner this time around. I would be a buyer.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited January 2020

    eek said:



    Brit justice is best justice eh???

    I think we ve concluded this argument

    No because you haven't noticed the actual point I'm making - Cyprus can do what it wants (and it has).

    If however it wants a tourist industry in the future it is going to find that not seriously investigating rape cases and charging rape victims with criminal charges discourages people from visiting and / or investing there when other options are available.

    There is a reason why the UK gets a lot of foreign investment - it's because most of the world trusts the English legal system. Lose that trust and people are less willing to invest or move to the UK.
    She wasn t a “rape victim” she s a “rape liar” - this has been proven in court
    Whatever you wish to call her, it doesn't matter.

    The fact is there is a reason to no longer trust the Cypriot Legal system which may result in money not being spent there.

    You may call it justice, to me it's a reason to never enter the country.
  • The last hour will begin. 15 overs or 60 minutes, whichever comes last will end the game.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,219
    South Africa needs just 12 an over. Will they go for it?
  • eek said:

    eek said:



    Brit justice is best justice eh???

    I think we ve concluded this argument

    No because you haven't noticed the actual point I'm making - Cyprus can do what it wants (and it has).

    If however it wants a tourist industry in the future it is going to find that not seriously investigating rape cases and charging rape victims with criminal charges discourages people from visiting and / or investing there when other options are available.

    There is a reason why the UK gets a lot of foreign investment - it's because most of the world trusts the English legal system. Lose that trust and people are less willing to invest or move to the UK.
    She wasn t a “rape victim” she s a “rape liar” - this has been proven in court
    Whatever you wish to call her, it doesn't matter. I no longer trust the Cypriot Legal system so won't spend money there. You may call it justice, to me it's a reason to never enter the country.
    Wokeflake
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    rcs1000 said:

    I have no special insight, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ed Davey was the only runner this time around. I would be a buyer.

    You'd buy the runner in a one horse race? Me too ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    edited January 2020
    'Corbyn was a 10/10 politician' says Rebecca Long Bailey. She claims it was all the mejias fault, an honest man to the core and a visionary.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    rcs1000 said:

    South Africa needs just 12 an over. Will they go for it?

    (leaves office in search of a bar with TV screens...)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,121
    edited January 2020
    I didn't want to fly – so I took a cargo ship from Germany to Canada

    My European work visa was expiring and I hoped to make it home to the west coast of Canada in time for Christmas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2020/jan/07/cargo-ship-train-rail-to-vancouver-canada-low-carbon-travel-europe

    Cos everybody has 3 weeks for one leg of a trip...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    If anyone is interested, on BF you can get a 2% return in 24 days for backing Brexit to happen 31/1, £25k is available. Equivalent to over 30% per annum.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    It may be an unpopular view but, having been a Lib Dem bear since 2010, I believe the Lib Dems have some grounds for optimism after the last election. They went backwards in seat count but they have put themselves into contention in a decent number of seats for the next election. They have long term prospects that could be worked with, especially at such point as the Conservatives fall from grace. 2015 was the disaster from which they are only now starting to recover a little.

    If we end up in 2024 with a scenario where the Tories and Labour are polling circa 38% - 40% each, I would expect Labour to regain second place in seats such as Finchley & Golders Green , Cities of London & Westminster - and possibly Wimbledon. The Sutton & Carshalton seat might also be interesting . When the seat was created back in 1974 , it was seen as a Tory - Labour marginal with the Tory - Robert Carr - at significant risk. Labour did reduce his majority to 3500 in the October election that year, but the Alliance moved into second place in the 1980s and somehow held on to that position as the main anti-Tory alternative during the the strong Labour surge under Blair. Labour voters continued to vote tactically for the LDs on a big scale - but now that the seat has been lost Labour may have an opportunity to rebuild there.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    It may be an unpopular view but, having been a Lib Dem bear since 2010, I believe the Lib Dems have some grounds for optimism after the last election. They went backwards in seat count but they have put themselves into contention in a decent number of seats for the next election. They have long term prospects that could be worked with, especially at such point as the Conservatives fall from grace. 2015 was the disaster from which they are only now starting to recover a little.

    Why not merge with Centrist Labour, and leave the Corbynites as the small third party (the Lib Dems up til now)?

    Change UK/TIG set up at the wrong time, and looked like anti democrats. Now would be a perfect time to do what they tried last term.
  • Ben Stokes doing the business for England...yet again.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    eek said:



    Brit justice is best justice eh???

    I think we ve concluded this argument

    No because you haven't noticed the actual point I'm making - Cyprus can do what it wants (and it has).

    If however it wants a tourist industry in the future it is going to find that not seriously investigating rape cases and charging rape victims with criminal charges discourages people from visiting and / or investing there when other options are available.

    There is a reason why the UK gets a lot of foreign investment - it's because most of the world trusts the English legal system. Lose that trust and people are less willing to invest or move to the UK.
    She wasn t a “rape victim” she s a “rape liar” - this has been proven in court
    Like Timothy Evans was proven to be an "innocent of murder liar."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    Gabs3 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    I'm pretty sure we'd see a lot more retractions in the UK if rape victims were aggressively interrogated for eight hours at a time without legal counsel...

    As a general principle, it's a good idea to have some information on the facts of the case before sounding off.
    If what you say is true, why was it not covered in the BBC article? Was she refused legal counsel?
    It was certainly covered in the BBC radio report.
    And it’s not hard to look for information - for instance:
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/30/briton-found-guilty-over-ayia-napa-false-claim-cyprus
  • Jess Philips drowning on GMB
    https://youtu.be/in6Bv52gNDU

    Rejoiners is going to be the next incarnation of the Remain, 2nd Referendum, People Votes. I notice that Bad Al the other day was still claiming that Remain definitely would have won another vote and that the trend was all with the Remain side and that is why Boris had a GE.

    There's a few points she tries to slip into her well worn 'look concerned, raise your octave a bit, look super impassioned on the verge of crying' act. But the interviewer doesnt fall for any of it as it doesnt work on women as a rule unless they want it to work on them.

    A man instinctively pulls back if he thinks a woman is about to get emotional which makes her a real problem for Boris if she wins, but she'll get marmalised when they realise to always put no nonsense women up against her. Shame someone like the Soubs took the pet. She would have repeatedly brought her down a peg.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814

    'Corbyn was a 10/10 politician' says Rebecca Long Bailey. She claims it was all the mejias fault, an honest man to the core and a visionary.

    I know it doesn’t really need repeating, but Labour are screwed if she takes the helm.
  • isam said:

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Tim Montgonerie, a No 10 aide, has said that the UK government should form a "special relationship" with Hungary. Viktor Orban is a brutish, undemocratic anti-Semite. If Montgonerie stays in his role it will completely undermine any goodwill Boris has made with Jews in this country in recent weeks.

    I wouldn't worry about it. Boris's New Populist Conservatives tend to be Islamophobic and by extension are, or become, semitophilic. I doubt any antisemite will be given houseroom therein. Montgomerie will in future be careful only to attack approved targets, and you're not on that list for the foreseeable.
    Cons (or right wing, "traditional" ones) tend to like Jews institutionally (ie they are supporters of Israel) but to not be so keen on them individually.

    Lab of course the opposite.
    I'm genuinely puzzled that anyone British could find Jews 'other' enough to be prejudiced about them. It's like harbouring a prejudice against men called Keith.
    Muslims and Jews have been at each others throats since the dawn of time haven't they? Lefties (the extreme left) take Palestine's side over Israel and the anti-semitism is a derivative of that
    The story of Issac and Ishmael...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited January 2020
    isam said:

    It may be an unpopular view but, having been a Lib Dem bear since 2010, I believe the Lib Dems have some grounds for optimism after the last election. They went backwards in seat count but they have put themselves into contention in a decent number of seats for the next election. They have long term prospects that could be worked with, especially at such point as the Conservatives fall from grace. 2015 was the disaster from which they are only now starting to recover a little.

    Why not merge with Centrist Labour, and leave the Corbynites as the small third party (the Lib Dems up til now)?

    Change UK/TIG set up at the wrong time, and looked like anti democrats. Now would be a perfect time to do what they tried last term.
    A Starmer Labour would be somewhat left of a Lib Dem party with lots of emigres from the Right of the Labour party. He isn't a Blairite. Remembers lots of figures from that era of Labour disliked Miliband for the same reason.
  • Cookie said:

    Gabs3 said:

    I have little background on her, but the LibDems could do worse than Daisy. She at least seems to know how to campaign.

    The LibDems dodged a bullet when Layla didn't stand last time. Just a shame they decided to walk into a dum-dum instead.

    I think Jo Swinson has been unfairly maligned. She was largely screwed by forces beyond her control.
    One of which was sadly her own very limited competence !
    Plus... Labour, LibDems - and anybody else looking to change leader:

    Do NOT put forward somebody who has a desire to wear slabs of clashing primary colours.

    And who cannot accessorise without further horrific colour clashes.

    And who has giant teeth. Those teeth.

    My god.

    They followed you around the room, unlocking some really primal fears.... No wonder she lost. Who was going to vote for a sabre-toothed tiger?
    Did you forget Jo's "white men stuck in the past" tweet? A 140-character suicide note, if ever there was one:

    https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1186956577699446784?lang=en

    That was it for me. I had no objection whatsoever to her appearance - quite pleasant-looking, for a politician. And I didn't mind her Hermione Grainger persona. It was her instinctive reversion to identity politics at every opportunity.
    They cant resist, the idea that they might be behind the curve on what is right on makes them take positions on trans rights which are directly in conflict with the rights and protection of women.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337


    I think the dismissal of "continuity Corbynism" fails to pay enough heed to how much of Corbyn's toxicity was personal.

    I'm not writing as a fan of his policy platform either.. but if even 5-10 points of the Anyone But Corbyn score was down to wreath-laying , it's not a bad base to start from. There was a Yougov showing stronger-than-I-expected support for some of his policies when tested in isolation from personalities.

    I think it is a huge mistake to take the supposed popularity of particular policies and conclude change is needed in the figurehead, but not in the policies.

    People like free stuff, and free stuff polls well. But that isn't how most people decide. They form an impression of the party and the sort of government it will form. Competent? Achievable goals? Focused? United? In touch?

    Labour's blizzard of commitments were individually popular but collectively disastrous. The overarching impression was that they didn't know their priorities and were fiscally incontinent. A lot of it felt unrealistic - huge ambitions in the hands of people who couldn't even deal with basic party discipline... you had to wonder whether any of it was going to happen.

    Look at Labour's pledge card from 1997. It was rather modest, but gave clear indications of the sort of administration people could expect:

    1. Cut class sizes to 30 for 5, 6 and 7 year olds using money from the assisted places scheme. This only covers three school years - but that helps it to look achievable and says education is a priority.

    2. Fast track punishment for persistent young offenders - a pitch to both traditional Labour and soft Tories, but rather limited... not a huge and costly ambition to transform the justice system.

    3. Cut NHS waiting lists by treating an extra 100,000 patients as a first step by releasing £100m saved from NHS red tape. This was chump change even 20 years ago - but it said NHS was a priority and a start would be made.

    4. Get 250,000 under-25s off benefit and into work via a windfall levy on privatised utilities. This was probably the most controversial on the card. But it wasn't some massive plan to turn back the clock - it was a nod that the privatised industries could expect a tougher line for the public benefit.

    5. No rise in income tax rates, and cut VAT on fuel. This was about removing the fear factor - proudly unexciting, steady as she goes but taking steps on education, crime, health and employment as above.

    A pledge card now may very well have different priorities (e.g. there was no environment pledge in 1997). But it'd be wise to be quite modest to give the impression of being focused and realistic.
    I don't disagree with much of that - I guess my point was that a better sales(wo)man who sold the right parts of it well may add several points to the Lab score.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    'Corbyn was a 10/10 politician' says Rebecca Long Bailey. She claims it was all the mejias fault, an honest man to the core and a visionary.

    I know it doesn’t really need repeating, but Labour are screwed if she takes the helm.
    It will represent a continuation of the left`s piracy of the party. But IMO they are screwed anyway. They have relied forever on votes from people who are more conservative than they are collectivist. Now these folk have taken a big gulp and ticked Conservative on the ballot. They will need a much smaller gulp to do it again.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    It may be an unpopular view but, having been a Lib Dem bear since 2010, I believe the Lib Dems have some grounds for optimism after the last election. They went backwards in seat count but they have put themselves into contention in a decent number of seats for the next election. They have long term prospects that could be worked with, especially at such point as the Conservatives fall from grace. 2015 was the disaster from which they are only now starting to recover a little.

    Why not merge with Centrist Labour, and leave the Corbynites as the small third party (the Lib Dems up til now)?

    Change UK/TIG set up at the wrong time, and looked like anti democrats. Now would be a perfect time to do what they tried last term.
    A Starmer Labour would be somewhat left of a Lib Dem party with lots of emigres from the Right of the Labour party. He isn't a Blairite. Remembers lots of figures from that era of Labour disliked Miliband for the same reason.
    Fair does. I would like to see his answer as to whether todays working class kids should be allowed the opportunity to take the 11 plus as he did.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    I didn't want to fly – so I took a cargo ship from Germany to Canada

    My European work visa was expiring and I hoped to make it home to the west coast of Canada in time for Christmas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2020/jan/07/cargo-ship-train-rail-to-vancouver-canada-low-carbon-travel-europe

    Cos everybody has 3 weeks for one leg of a trip...

    Aren't cargo ships some of the worst polluters?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Stocky said:

    'Corbyn was a 10/10 politician' says Rebecca Long Bailey. She claims it was all the mejias fault, an honest man to the core and a visionary.

    I know it doesn’t really need repeating, but Labour are screwed if she takes the helm.
    It will represent a continuation of the left`s piracy of the party. But IMO they are screwed anyway. They have relied forever on votes from people who are more conservative than they are collectivist. Now these folk have taken a big gulp and ticked Conservative on the ballot. They will need a much smaller gulp to do it again.
    Especially so if, as expected, there’s a whole raft of infrastructure spending and business incentives coming to those Northern towns in the next couple of years.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    RobD said:

    I didn't want to fly – so I took a cargo ship from Germany to Canada

    My European work visa was expiring and I hoped to make it home to the west coast of Canada in time for Christmas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2020/jan/07/cargo-ship-train-rail-to-vancouver-canada-low-carbon-travel-europe

    Cos everybody has 3 weeks for one leg of a trip...

    Aren't cargo ships some of the worst polluters?
    Per ship, yes. But per mile, no. Like how a bus uses more petrol than a car, but per person is cleaner.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    RobD said:

    I didn't want to fly – so I took a cargo ship from Germany to Canada

    My European work visa was expiring and I hoped to make it home to the west coast of Canada in time for Christmas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2020/jan/07/cargo-ship-train-rail-to-vancouver-canada-low-carbon-travel-europe

    Cos everybody has 3 weeks for one leg of a trip...

    Aren't cargo ships some of the worst polluters?
    All shipping is scarily bad at pollution.

    But if we are talking cargo ships I can give you this to read from Saturday

    https://twitter.com/cybergibbons/status/1213572501395120134
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    'Corbyn was a 10/10 politician' says Rebecca Long Bailey. She claims it was all the mejias fault, an honest man to the core and a visionary.

    I know it doesn’t really need repeating, but Labour are screwed if she takes the helm.
    It will represent a continuation of the left`s piracy of the party. But IMO they are screwed anyway. They have relied forever on votes from people who are more conservative than they are collectivist. Now these folk have taken a big gulp and ticked Conservative on the ballot. They will need a much smaller gulp to do it again.
    Especially so if, as expected, there’s a whole raft of infrastructure spending and business incentives coming to those Northern towns in the next couple of years.
    Yep - I expect the Tories to love bomb them accordingly.
  • Spain has its first coalition government since the restoration of democracy ...
    https://twitter.com/psoe/status/1214541380313370626?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    I didn't want to fly – so I took a cargo ship from Germany to Canada

    My European work visa was expiring and I hoped to make it home to the west coast of Canada in time for Christmas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2020/jan/07/cargo-ship-train-rail-to-vancouver-canada-low-carbon-travel-europe

    Cos everybody has 3 weeks for one leg of a trip...

    Aren't cargo ships some of the worst polluters?
    All shipping is scarily bad at pollution.

    But if we are talking cargo ships I can give you this to read from Saturday

    https://twitter.com/cybergibbons/status/1213572501395120134
    Quite enjoyable.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    I didn't want to fly – so I took a cargo ship from Germany to Canada

    My European work visa was expiring and I hoped to make it home to the west coast of Canada in time for Christmas.

    https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2020/jan/07/cargo-ship-train-rail-to-vancouver-canada-low-carbon-travel-europe

    Cos everybody has 3 weeks for one leg of a trip...

    Aren't cargo ships some of the worst polluters?
    All shipping is scarily bad at pollution.

    But if we are talking cargo ships I can give you this to read from Saturday

    https://twitter.com/cybergibbons/status/1213572501395120134
    Bananas are the one commodity that's so tricky to transport that the producers have to own the ships they ship them in, rather than chartering like everyone else. Why didn't he say potatoes?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Jess Philips drowning on GMB
    https://youtu.be/in6Bv52gNDU

    Rejoiners is going to be the next incarnation of the Remain, 2nd Referendum, People Votes. I notice that Bad Al the other day was still claiming that Remain definitely would have won another vote and that the trend was all with the Remain side and that is why Boris had a GE.

    There's a few points she tries to slip into her well worn 'look concerned, raise your octave a bit, look super impassioned on the verge of crying' act. But the interviewer doesnt fall for any of it as it doesnt work on women as a rule unless they want it to work on them.

    A man instinctively pulls back if he thinks a woman is about to get emotional which makes her a real problem for Boris if she wins, but she'll get marmalised when they realise to always put no nonsense women up against her. Shame someone like the Soubs took the pet. She would have repeatedly brought her down a peg.
    Nadine Dorries or Esther McVey should more than do the job....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs3 said:

    This is the sort of thing that hurts the Left so much. Far too few women are believed when they say they have been raped. But backing people who are convicted of lying about it does not help us win the argument.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485

    There are quite a lot of concerns with this conviction:-

    1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
    2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
    3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
    4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.

    There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.
    It is what it is - I think she s got some cheek appealing a suspended sentence
    She’s appealing the conviction.
    Let s hope she serves time then as a warning to others
    Why don’t you think that the rape allegation should be investigated?
    It was investigated- she reported it to the police and was caught and sentenced.

    And as I stated early, with it the Cypriot Holiday business collapses.
    Sorry - I was under the misapprehension that people (esp here) - liked JUSTICE

    You not at all worries about a confession obtained under coercion with no legal representation?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Spain has its first coalition government since the restoration of democracy ...
    https://twitter.com/psoe/status/1214541380313370626?s=21

    Kids, you are about to get fucked on your tuition fees.....
  • Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    'Corbyn was a 10/10 politician' says Rebecca Long Bailey. She claims it was all the mejias fault, an honest man to the core and a visionary.

    I know it doesn’t really need repeating, but Labour are screwed if she takes the helm.
    It will represent a continuation of the left`s piracy of the party. But IMO they are screwed anyway. They have relied forever on votes from people who are more conservative than they are collectivist. Now these folk have taken a big gulp and ticked Conservative on the ballot. They will need a much smaller gulp to do it again.
    Especially so if, as expected, there’s a whole raft of infrastructure spending and business incentives coming to those Northern towns in the next couple of years.
    I think you are overcomplicating it. Those "conservative" old labour voters looked at Corbyn and hated everything about him. 2019 GE was pro-Johnson by default. It was the anti-Corbyn election. Everything depends on whom they replace Mr. Thicky with. The one thing you can say about Johnson is that he is very good at defeating a very poor opponent.
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