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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair Ed Davey’s odds of winning the LD leadership are ti
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair Ed Davey’s odds of winning the LD leadership are tighter than Starmer’s for LAB
Last time there was an LD leadership contest it got overshadowed by the Tory contest that saw Johnson take the crown. This time it is LAB’s leadership battle which is dominating the coverage which is understandable.
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Her sexuality is neither here nor there. But her choice of new partner is a source of concern given the reasons for her leaving her role with the LDs.
Add to that Moran's violent past should really disqualify her from any role in public life
The LDs are out of the frying pan and into the dire..
As well as the Cummings video, people should re-watch When Boris Met Dave. It is entertaining but with one very large clue hidden in plain sight. Boris has a bust of Pericles. Boris worships the ancient Athenian ruler. And what was Pericles' slogan? For the many, not the few!
He looks like Morrissey to me
The LibDems dodged a bullet when Layla didn't stand last time. Just a shame they decided to walk into a dum-dum instead.
"Why everybody crapping?"
Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer do.....
Looking at Lab's it feels like Lewis won't get the MPs as he is fishing in the same pond as Long-Bailey. Thornberry seems not to be trusted by either the Corbynites or moderates so again may not get the MPs unless she is lent some.
At the next stage it feels to me like Starmer and Nandy will get the CLPs and Long-Bailey will get the affiliates so it is then whether Phillips gets enough CLPs.
Could just be the three candidates going to the very complex selectorate.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51017485
Would a “man of the people” put defeated pal Zac straight into the Lords and straight back into the cabinet?
"So how's it going on the doorstep, Simon?"
"No problem with our key policies. In fact they're very popular. But it's all overshadowed by one big thing. Davey. He's toxic."
Hard to envisage such an exchange.
Basically I don't believe any changes to the graduate tax would resolve house prices in any way that actually building houses wouldn't resolve far quicker and for far less money.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Davey#Early_life
Davey isn’t electrifying, but would probably take the right steps towards the LDs rebuilding (if indeed they actually can - there is an argument that 2015 holed them below the waterline).
"Prime Minister Jo Swinson"? Beyond her control?
Yes, I can see why she got nowhere, having so little control over her destiny....
As a general principle, it's a good idea to have some information on the facts of the case before sounding off.
Do NOT put forward somebody who has a desire to wear slabs of clashing primary colours.
And who cannot accessorise without further horrific colour clashes.
And who has giant teeth. Those teeth.
My god.
They followed you around the room, unlocking some really primal fears.... No wonder she lost. Who was going to vote for a sabre-toothed tiger?
In my case the holiday villa in Cyprus plan has been thrown out - probably back to looking at Turkey or Portugal.
' Jeremy Corbyn just led Labour to its most crushing defeat in our lifetimes. Racking up a good vote count did him no good whatsoever because a lot more people voted in a way to keep him out of power. This isn't flowery language. That is, as you would say, a raw fact.
You're assuming that his own vote count was down to him rather than greater antipathy to his opponent. I suggest that is a brave assumption.'
In England and Wales it was a far less crushing defeat than 1983 and 1987. Moreover, Labour did win 15 seats last month which were won by the Tories in the 2015 election - and also held on to Sheffield Hallam. Over a five year period it has been far from being one way traffic. Overall I believe Labour finds itself better placed than post 1987 - and faces a 1992 type challenge at the next election.
On the other hand, there is at times a tendency in the media to whip up a narrative against foreign justice systems for jingoistic purposes which creates a media circus.
I post the above with no particular comment on this actual case, whose facts I have not followed closely.
Layla Moran: What exactly is pansexual that bisexual is not? My understanding - and this is limited, because it seems to be a term used exclusively by young people - is that it implies Layla us attracted to men, women and transsexuals. But as far as I am aware 'bisexual' doesn't implicitly rule out transsexuals. But maybe if Layla simply said she was bisexual we might nit pay enough attention.
Of course you may have been planning to go and live in the North.
Far more influential for the LDs future success will be the new Labour leader, and how they approach the LDs (will Labour back PR, will they try and come to sort sort of election pact etc).
Oops.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1186956577699446784?lang=en
https://twitter.com/exstrategist/status/1214532677061230594?s=21
Lab of course the opposite.
I'm not writing as a fan of his policy platform either.. but if even 5-10 points of the Anyone But Corbyn score was down to wreath-laying and IRA and Venezuela (and probably just secondhand tabloid perceptions at that), it's not a bad base to start from. There was a Yougov showing stronger-than-I-expected support for some of his policies when tested in isolation from personalities.
The bigger issue is whether a Continuity Corbynite replaces that weakness with some of their own. I think RLB might struggle to cut through compared to Starmer/Thornberry/Phillips. I don't dislike her... but for me she doesn't carry as much weight as some other youngish women (eg Phillips, Rayner). Given the pasting Swinson took, there's a balance to be reached between looking fresh and having enough heft to give your opponents a competent kicking.
The list goes on.
https://youtu.be/in6Bv52gNDU
Rejoiners is going to be the next incarnation of the Remain, 2nd Referendum, People Votes. I notice that Bad Al the other day was still claiming that Remain definitely would have won another vote and that the trend was all with the Remain side and that is why Boris had a GE.
Given that LibDems are a party to the traditional left of centre the only place they can win significant numbers of seats and become relevant is from areas where Left of centre party(ies) are elected. These are the seats LibDems need to win if they are ever to become an important party.
They can target a few Tory seats, these will be won and lost over time, they are swing seats. For a long term foothold and power base they have to take seats from Labour (or SNP in Scotland) where the electorate is left leaning and is disenchanted with Labour (the exception may be the red wall seats that fell to the Tories this time).
Either they target Labour seats or they continue to fluctuate from 8 to 30 seats drone on about electoral reform and how unfair it is without giving either main party a bloody nose and incentive to do anything about electoral reform.
Left leaning parties win most seats in areas with most left leaning voters. Sure the policy of targeting Labour will cause some odd Tory wins in the cycle to gain relevance. However I would have thought that the cycle of repeating what they do was so clearly a strategy seeped in failure over several election cycles that they would by now have learnt that the enemy is the one who is close to you and pretends to be you friend. Repetition of the same action expecting a different result is often likened to insanity.
Meantime, we are enjoying having power.
"Let's have a look at what you could have won...."
I have no idea of their political leanings/leadership preferences, of course, though it seems reasonable to suppose that as they were not members before they are not especially Corbynite.
Neither are certain.
1. The allegation of rape was never tried. Hard to see how you can be convicted of lying about something when whether or not that something occurred has not been properly investigated and tested in court.
2. There was forensic and medical evidence of sex with various men and injuries. How those happened was not properly investigated or tested in court.
3. Her retraction was obtained after a very lengthy interview process, possibly under duress and without the benefit of legal advice. Such a statement would not be admissible in an English court. It may well be admissible in a Cypriot court but there is concern, even under Cypriot law, that it was not reliable. There is also evidence that it may have been dictated to her rather than actually made by her.
4. If she was gang raped, she will have been suffering considerable stress which also raises concerns about the alleged retraction.
There is also the possibility that the Cypriot authorities seem to have been more concerned about getting rid of an embarrassing story rather than properly investigating a serious allegation. If in fact the retraction was not valid, there is now no chance of the allegation being properly investigated and a young woman will have had her reputation and future career prospects ruined as well as having suffered a hideous crime.