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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair Ed Davey’s odds of winning the LD leadership are ti

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,274
    HYUFD said:

    And it would be of value if leftwingers with ideological axes to grind against IDS did not use that to malign his character

    I have no axe to grind against IDS.

    But if I can find one in the basement ...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857
    HYUFD said:
    It's a silly question to ask, but an open goal to be mocked with that answer. There are ways to praise him without coming off as completely ridiculous, given it should be impossible to in effect pretend a leader's greatness, or lack thereof, has no bearing on a disastrous outcome, even if other factors exist.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,473

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    After all the helpful comments from the usual suspects earlier, perhaps the view of someone who actually has a vote in the LD leadership election may be of interest (or it may not).

    The Party's problems don't really start or end with the leader unlike Labour's. The core problem is the message not the messenger and even in his New Year message Sir Ed was still talking about "stopping Brexit".

    The Party has to grow up and realise the battle is lost - whether we like it or not, the 2016 Referendum result, for all its imperfections, was still a reasonably free and fair vote (and certainly more so than in many other countries). The Party should have taken it on the chin then and there and accepted the will of the people was to leave the EU.

    The method and manner of departure was of course not specified and there would be many who would argue for a close and positive relationship post-membership especially in terms of trade but also politically. By abdicating the field to the "hard" Brexiteers, the LDs have made a more distant, antagonistic and economically difficult relationship more likely.

    That's the past - I would now support a candidate willing to say the unsayable in terms of our EU membership.

    I will still vote for Ed Davey. Not least because the other candidates haven't moved on yet. Ed is a good media performer, and while not as fresh as Layla is more solidly grounded. More than likely He will be the only party leader with any gravitas by the end of the year, at least in England.

    EAA and a CU now, then rejoin 'when the time is right', would be OK.
    That would be a quite pointless position. The Lib Dems are not in a position to demand either. Why opt for demanding something that only a handful of niche Leavers want?
    You look increasingly like Neil Tennant in your profile pictures.

    It’s a sin.
    My children recently met their new second cousin. I saw the photos. The baby reminded me of someone. Eventually it hit me; the baby looked like Alistair Meeks. Not a baby version of Alastair Meeks: the actual Alastair Meeks; albeit to one sixth scale and wearing a babygro.
    To be clear, I don't mean to say that Alastair looks like a four week old baby boy. Alastair looks like a perfectly normal and serious middle-aged city lawyer. But so did this baby. Specifically Alastair Meeks. Wearing a babygro. He was looking at the camera with an expression of great disapproval.
    It was a very odd photo.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,428
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    After all the helpful comments from the usual suspects earlier, perhaps the view of someone who actually has a vote in the LD leadership election may be of interest (or it may not).

    The Party's problems don't really start or end with the leader unlike Labour's. The core problem is the message not the messenger and even in his New Year message Sir Ed was still talking about "stopping Brexit".

    The Party has to grow up and realise the battle is lost - whether we like it or not, the 2016 Referendum result, for all its imperfections, was still a reasonably free and fair vote (and certainly more so than in many other countries). The Party should have taken it on the chin then and there and accepted the will of the people was to leave the EU.

    The method and manner of departure was of course not specified and there would be many who would argue for a close and positive relationship post-membership especially in terms of trade but also politically. By abdicating the field to the "hard" Brexiteers, the LDs have made a more distant, antagonistic and economically difficult relationship more likely.

    That's the past - I would now support a candidate willing to say the unsayable in terms of our EU membership.

    I will still vote for Ed Davey. Not least because the other candidates haven't moved on yet. Ed is a good media performer, and while not as fresh as Layla is more solidly grounded. More than likely He will be the only party leader with any gravitas by the end of the year, at least in England.

    EAA and a CU now, then rejoin 'when the time is right', would be OK.
    That would be a quite pointless position. The Lib Dems are not in a position to demand either. Why opt for demanding something that only a handful of niche Leavers want?
    You look increasingly like Neil Tennant in your profile pictures.

    It’s a sin.
    My children recently met their new second cousin. I saw the photos. The baby reminded me of someone. Eventually it hit me; the baby looked like Alistair Meeks. Not a baby version of Alastair Meeks: the actual Alastair Meeks; albeit to one sixth scale and wearing a babygro.
    To be clear, I don't mean to say that Alastair looks like a four week old baby boy. Alastair looks like a perfectly normal and serious middle-aged city lawyer. But so did this baby. Specifically Alastair Meeks. Wearing a babygro. He was looking at the camera with an expression of great disapproval.
    It was a very odd photo.
    Genuine Lol!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857
    Alistair said:
    Quite believable. I would think he needs to show some fight on some high profile issue early on to set the right mood among his Brexiteers, then when things get uncomfortable within the time frame he can try the folding but not folding trick in the autumn again.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's a silly question to ask, but an open goal to be mocked with that answer. There are ways to praise him without coming off as completely ridiculous, given it should be impossible to in effect pretend a leader's greatness, or lack thereof, has no bearing on a disastrous outcome, even if other factors exist.
    But you just wrote about Corbyn that politicians should always answer the question they're asked directly.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Indeed and a popular and hardworking local MP to boot, which is why despite Labour and Momentum throwing everything, including hundreds of activists every weekend and even Hugh Grant to try and topple him, he held Chingford and Woodford Green last month

    My brother knows IDS well and is of the opinion that he is a rather ghastly individual. And my bro is a relaxed and tolerant sort. It's unusual for him to come out with stuff like that. When he met "Boris", for example, he told me that he was very easy to talk to.
    Well I have met IDS several times and he is a perfectly decent man who works hard for his constituents even if he lacks the charisma of Boris.

    That was why he was re elected despite a ferocious Labour campaign to topple him
    This "I know him personally and..." stuff is of very little help or relevance in judging the public acts of a public figure. It would be of some value if you had known him intimately for decades but without forming any bond with him which would preclude you from betraying any weakness of his to a bunch of internet randomers, and if you had a power of detecting and discounting hypocrisy which actually, nobody does.
    And it would be of value if leftwingers with ideological axes to grind against IDS did not use that to malign his character
    This is not a partisan point, though. From a fairly orthodox tory viewpoint I have recognised him as a complete turd since the mid 1990s.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    Alistair said:
    It only works if the media, that breathlessly reported every petty detail of Brussels regulation, even the fake ones, when crewed by such correspondents as B Johnson, switches to a radically uncritical perspective, as if Brexit were just a constructed ruse to aggravate fear of foreigners and win the votes of angry people.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Alistair said:
    And the cult will greet the great victory with rapturous applause because of AUstrAlian poINTs sYstEM
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:
    Quite believable. I would think he needs to show some fight on some high profile issue early on to set the right mood among his Brexiteers, then when things get uncomfortable within the time frame he can try the folding but not folding trick in the autumn again.
    He folded instantly on the Withdrawal agreement and that had the entire tory party falling at his feet at his brilliance.

    I don't think he needs to put up any show. Just instant capitulation
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,274
    kle4 said:

    Quite believable. I would think he needs to show some fight on some high profile issue early on to set the right mood among his Brexiteers, then when things get uncomfortable within the time frame he can try the folding but not folding trick in the autumn again.

    I am expecting exactly this. Boris BINO.

    Rather than Boris delivering us Brexit, I think the greater truth is that Brexit has delivered us Boris.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,724

    Alistair said:
    And the cult will greet the great victory with rapturous applause because of AUstrAlian poINTs sYstEM
    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1214327112255049730?s=19
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,274
    Cyclefree said:
    Overseas Aid?

    I bet the biggest sacred cow (NHS) will escape unscathed.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,057
    Cyclefree said:
    Spending commitments not in the manifesto
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:
    And the cult will greet the great victory with rapturous applause because of AUstrAlian poINTs sYstEM
    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1214327112255049730?s=19
    There’s a CANZUKker born every minute.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,885

    .... Schadenbetfred....

    I am so stealing that... :)

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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    edited January 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:
    Spending commitments not in the manifesto
    Like what? Almost nothing was in the manifesto.
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    It doesn't matter who you like or dislike, try and bet with your head to achieve winners.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,885
    ..
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Corbyn offers his thoughts on the late General from Iran.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1214619621443211265

    That reads like a wise and patient teacher talking to a keen sixth former trying to be punchy and make an impression.
    .
    Quite so. The Sky bloke is really embarrassing himself. S may have arranged, approved, financed terrorism etc but that doesn't mean "terrorist" is an accurate or useful description of him. "Engaging in acts of terrorism" to me means actually strapping on the explosive vest. We have no idea what he was doing in Baghdad. And whatever he was doing, it doesn't justify or excuse assassinating him in a foreign, sovereign state. I'd love to hear the definition of terrorism under which Soleimani was a terrorist but his assassination was not a terrorist act. There hasn't been a more shit bit of TV journalism since C4's pathetic wankerdom over the climate debate.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857
    edited January 2020
    EPG said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    It's a silly question to ask, but an open goal to be mocked with that answer. There are ways to praise him without coming off as completely ridiculous, given it should be impossible to in effect pretend a leader's greatness, or lack thereof, has no bearing on a disastrous outcome, even if other factors exist.
    But you just wrote about Corbyn that politicians should always answer the question they're asked directly.
    No, I said he/they need to 'figure out how to get their point across whilst not giving the interviewer the impression they are ignoring the question to make their own point' which is not the same thing as always answering it directly, or at least not answering it directly without qualifying it with the point you want to get across. It was about being smarter in responding. It needs to be more direct than ignoring it, but that was not what was happening here anyway, she didn't ignore the question she gave one so obsequious as to not be credible. I'd suggest she could quite honestly mention how much she admires and respects Corbyn without rating him as perfect after a terrible result. Even 9 out of 10, while critics would mock it, would still get across that she is a true believer in Corbyn now and always, without seeming to ignore that his leadership has not ended in a way positive for the party and country.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:
    Quite believable. I would think he needs to show some fight on some high profile issue early on to set the right mood among his Brexiteers, then when things get uncomfortable within the time frame he can try the folding but not folding trick in the autumn again.
    He folded instantly on the Withdrawal agreement and that had the entire tory party falling at his feet at his brilliance.

    I don't think he needs to put up any show. Just instant capitulation
    Ah, but that was preceded by weeks and months before he became leader talking tough. It set the scene, and worked.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857
    EPG said:

    Alistair said:
    It only works if the media, that breathlessly reported every petty detail of Brussels regulation, even the fake ones, when crewed by such correspondents as B Johnson, switches to a radically uncritical perspective, as if Brexit were just a constructed ruse to aggravate fear of foreigners and win the votes of angry people.
    Media and opponents pointing out what he has done in that scenario would not prevent it working necessarily. People pointed out a lot of things about his new WA, the Brexiteers did not believe it or care. Question is if he does cave, can he disguise the caving or sell it as not caving.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,885
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    And it would be of value if leftwingers with ideological axes to grind against IDS did not use that to malign his character

    I have no axe to grind against IDS.

    But if I can find one in the basement ...
    Does rather beg the question "if one ground an axe against IDS, would it take an edge?". You'd have to strap him to a pole lengthwise and rotate him rapidly. But I suspect that no matter how hard you rotated him nor how hard you pressed the axe against him, the axe would become blunter and you'd just end up with a terrible mess on the floor as bits fell off him or out of him. So probably not then. You could use him as an umbrella stand but you run into capacity problems regarding the obvious apertures. So again, not much point.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,885
    Foxy said:
    When the Canzuk dreamers were extolling their visions, I frequently pointed out that I was OK with freedom of movement with Australia if-and-only-if it meant I could move there. But I suspected the British Govt would not achieve that, hence my cynicism.

    Am I correct in that suspicion?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081
    Does anyone else think that the “Foxy Bingo” fox from the advert is clearly guilty of many counts of sexual assault?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857
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    RLB on ITN. Why is her face so shiny? Has ITN cut its makeup budget?
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Not sure Jess Phillips rejoin the EU is the right move .

    And the EU certainly won’t be interested unless there’s a huge majority for that which seems unlikely . I think the issue needs to be left alone for now for a generation .

    If the younger generation carry their general pro EU sentiment forward as they get older then one day perhaps the UK can once again join the family of EU nations .

    I certainly will be very sad to see the UK leave but what’s done is done .

    I’m very thankful to my parents though for giving me the opportunity to Remain a proud EU citizen , and had some wonderful news today that my passport and ID are ready to collect .

    I feel quite overwhelmed , it’s really hit home just how much I treasured my EU citizenship and just how blessed I feel to be able to continue that.




  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,274
    @Ishmael_Z

    Very well said about this Iran madness. I only agree with 20% of your stuff but when I agree I do REALLY agree - as it were.

    @viewcode

    Hornchurch Psycho ☺
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,443
    edited January 2020
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:
    Quite believable. I would think he needs to show some fight on some high profile issue early on to set the right mood among his Brexiteers, then when things get uncomfortable within the time frame he can try the folding but not folding trick in the autumn again.
    He folded instantly on the Withdrawal agreement and that had the entire tory party falling at his feet at his brilliance.

    I don't think he needs to put up any show. Just instant capitulation
    Ah, but that was preceded by weeks and months before he became leader talking tough. It set the scene, and worked.
    Boris had also taken the precaution of recruiting the leading Brexiteers into the Cabinet. The longer JRM is kept on, the more BINO-ish the outcome.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:
    Quite believable. I would think he needs to show some fight on some high profile issue early on to set the right mood among his Brexiteers, then when things get uncomfortable within the time frame he can try the folding but not folding trick in the autumn again.
    He folded instantly on the Withdrawal agreement and that had the entire tory party falling at his feet at his brilliance.

    I don't think he needs to put up any show. Just instant capitulation
    Ah, but that was preceded by weeks and months before he became leader talking tough. It set the scene, and worked.
    Boris had also taken the precaution of recruiting the leading Brexiteers into the Cabinet. The longer JRM is kept on, the more BINO-ish the outcome.
    You mean JRM might be Boris's useful idiot? He'd be heartbroken.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,274
    My pick. If she can do the charisma thing she must have a good chance.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,025
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    And it would be of value if leftwingers with ideological axes to grind against IDS did not use that to malign his character

    I have no axe to grind against IDS.

    But if I can find one in the basement ...
    Does rather beg the question "if one ground an axe against IDS, would it take an edge?". You'd have to strap him to a pole lengthwise and rotate him rapidly. But I suspect that no matter how hard you rotated him nor how hard you pressed the axe against him, the axe would become blunter and you'd just end up with a terrible mess on the floor as bits fell off him or out of him. So probably not then. You could use him as an umbrella stand but you run into capacity problems regarding the obvious apertures. So again, not much point.
    That is post of the month.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,057
    edited January 2020
    Sanders supporter Rep AOC 'In any other country Joe Biden and I would not be in the same party'

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/06/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-joe-biden-not-same-party-094642
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,885
    kinabalu said:

    @Ishmael_Z

    Very well said about this Iran madness. I only agree with 20% of your stuff but when I agree I do REALLY agree - as it were.

    @viewcode

    Hornchurch Psycho ☺

    IDS has a clear crisp sound and a new sheen of consummate professionalism that gives his career a big boost... :)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,857
    HYUFD said:

    Sanders supporter Rep AOC 'In any other country Joe Biden and I would not be in the same party'

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/06/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-joe-biden-not-same-party-094642

    That'll be funny if he's the nominee and she backs him enthusiastically. Not that as an alternative to TYrump many would not do the same, but it would depend on how how much acknowledgement of past comments against him there was.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    nico67 said:

    Not sure Jess Phillips rejoin the EU is the right move .

    And the EU certainly won’t be interested unless there’s a huge majority for that which seems unlikely . I think the issue needs to be left alone for now for a generation .

    If the younger generation carry their general pro EU sentiment forward as they get older then one day perhaps the UK can once again join the family of EU nations .

    I certainly will be very sad to see the UK leave but what’s done is done .

    I’m very thankful to my parents though for giving me the opportunity to Remain a proud EU citizen , and had some wonderful news today that my passport and ID are ready to collect .

    I feel quite overwhelmed , it’s really hit home just how much I treasured my EU citizenship and just how blessed I feel to be able to continue that.




    Giving up your British Citizenship now you think you have a better one?
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    nico67 said:


    I feel quite overwhelmed , it’s really hit home just how much I treasured my EU citizenship and just how blessed I feel to be able to continue that.

    I come from the other side of the debate but I wish you well in your new home, where are you settling?

    I do understand how emotive Brexit has been on all sides so in the spirit of understanding your joy at being a citizen of the EU i'm sure you will appreciate the relief among leavers that our treasured democracy has been respected.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,602
    Scrapping it at the same time as announcing an accelerated equivalent programme of direct infrastructure investment on things people actually want in the North and Midlands would work well politically.

    In all those Black Country seats that went blue in 2019 or before it will still be just as quick to continue to go direct to London on the WCML, not that many would be able to afford what are bound to be even higher premium fares on HS2.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,724

    Does anyone else think that the “Foxy Bingo” fox from the advert is clearly guilty of many counts of sexual assault?

    I never had Bingo relations with that woman.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Cyclefree said:
    Hopefully:

    'Help to buy' - Market distorting
    Publick Health England - inaccurate Propaganda
    Local Enterprise Partnerships - borderline corruption at best
    The Red Arrows - do I need to say why
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,428
    Genuinely good effort by the BBC on BBC2 right now - Cornwall: This Fishing Life.

    Very sympathetic portrait of the lives of Cornish fisherman who come across as reasoned, pragmatic and sensible normal people. Frustrations about second-home owners and fish quotas, but also the need to change with the times. Absolutely no sneering. Very fair and interesting documentary.

    More like this please.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    After all the helpful comments from the usual suspects earlier, perhaps the view of someone who actually has a vote in the LD leadership election may be of interest (or it may not).

    The Party's problems don't really start or end with the leader unlike Labour's. The core problem is the message not the messenger and even in his New Year message Sir Ed was still talking about "stopping Brexit".

    The Party has to grow up and realise the battle is lost - whether we like it or not, the 2016 Referendum result, for all its imperfections, was still a reasonably free and fair vote (and certainly more so than in many other countries). The Party should have taken it on the chin then and there and accepted the will of the people was to leave the EU.

    The method and manner of departure was of course not specified and there would be many who would argue for a close and positive relationship post-membership especially in terms of trade but also politically. By abdicating the field to the "hard" Brexiteers, the LDs have made a more distant, antagonistic and economically difficult relationship more likely.

    That's the past - I would now support a candidate willing to say the unsayable in terms of our EU membership.

    I will still vote for Ed Davey. Not least because the other candidates haven't moved on yet. Ed is a good media performer, and while not as fresh as Layla is more solidly grounded. More than likely He will be the only party leader with any gravitas by the end of the year, at least in England.

    EAA and a CU now, then rejoin 'when the time is right', would be OK.
    That would be a quite pointless position. The Lib Dems are not in a position to demand either. Why opt for demanding something that only a handful of niche Leavers want?
    You look increasingly like Neil Tennant in your profile pictures.

    It’s a sin.
    My children recently met their new second cousin. I saw the photos. The baby reminded me of someone. Eventually it hit me; the baby looked like Alistair Meeks. Not a baby version of Alastair Meeks: the actual Alastair Meeks; albeit to one sixth scale and wearing a babygro.
    To be clear, I don't mean to say that Alastair looks like a four week old baby boy. Alastair looks like a perfectly normal and serious middle-aged city lawyer. But so did this baby. Specifically Alastair Meeks. Wearing a babygro. He was looking at the camera with an expression of great disapproval.
    It was a very odd photo.
    Some friends have a son who when he was around aged 2 looked the spitting image of the Irish President, Michael Higgins.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Not sure Jess Phillips rejoin the EU is the right move .

    And the EU certainly won’t be interested unless there’s a huge majority for that which seems unlikely . I think the issue needs to be left alone for now for a generation .

    If the younger generation carry their general pro EU sentiment forward as they get older then one day perhaps the UK can once again join the family of EU nations .

    I certainly will be very sad to see the UK leave but what’s done is done .

    I’m very thankful to my parents though for giving me the opportunity to Remain a proud EU citizen , and had some wonderful news today that my passport and ID are ready to collect .

    I feel quite overwhelmed , it’s really hit home just how much I treasured my EU citizenship and just how blessed I feel to be able to continue that.




    Giving up your British Citizenship now you think you have a better one?
    No I’m a dual national. I’m proud to be both a British and EU citizen . It’s nothing about better , many Remainers like myself just wanted to stay as we were . Why should I have to choose one over the other when I treasure both .
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    NEW THREAD

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,274
    viewcode said:

    IDS has a clear crisp sound and a new sheen of consummate professionalism that gives his career a big boost... :)

    Totally. But hey I gotta dash. I have a reservation.
    👾
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    SunnyJim said:

    nico67 said:


    I feel quite overwhelmed , it’s really hit home just how much I treasured my EU citizenship and just how blessed I feel to be able to continue that.

    I come from the other side of the debate but I wish you well in your new home, where are you settling?

    I do understand how emotive Brexit has been on all sides so in the spirit of understanding your joy at being a citizen of the EU i'm sure you will appreciate the relief among leavers that our treasured democracy has been respected.
    Brexit certainly has been emotive but it’s time to move on . I currently spend a lot of time in France but still class the UK as home. And of course I’m not going to begrudge you your feelings about democracy . I appreciate your kind words . I hope the UK can move forward and the divisions can heal . The last 3 years have been horrible .
This discussion has been closed.