The table brings home that the Tories got within 0.1% of Labour and the Lib Dem’s put together. A truly remarkable achievement and one that really should have produced an even bigger majority than it did.
On the pollsters I think that Yougov must be particularly disappointed. They threw a lot of resource at this election and they set the story line for a chunk of it, possibly inaccurately. I wonder if it was ever as close as they were saying it was.
The second MRP is what we will remember. After a spectacular 2017 it’s lost its magic. It also has to be said that those who claimed a Boris’s skills as a campaigner were grossly exaggerated were just wrong. He continues to reach voters few other Tories could get close to.
Except in Scotland, despite some fairly pitiful yearning beforehand.
That is because we are nasty nationalists , too stupid and too wee to understand his big joined up words.
Nonsense. The SNP performance was not up to 2015 standards but it was impressive enough. It’s the strategic implications of SLABs collapse that worries me as a unionist. They were the backbone of Better Together. Although the Tories are much stronger than they were then they will never reach deep into Glasgow and it’s environs. A lot of people and territory are becoming solid SNP.
We will be the better for it David but the last thing we need is for them to end up like Labour. We need the boil lanced sooner rather than later and then get some real Scottish opposition parties.
The SNP performance in government wanders from poor to abysmal, education definitely being in the latter camp. They have many of the Labour faults, statist, excessive regulators, more interested in the views of appointees than their competence, very unwilling to listen or admit mistakes and with an increasing air of entitlement. It makes building a viable economy much more difficult.
As a variation on how rubbish must you be if you were beaten by a slogan on the side of a bus argument, how crap must the SCons, SLab & SLDs be? I think we all know the answer to that.
All in all, the pollsters did pretty well. ICM and ComRes... didn’t. Also worth mentioning that they were two of the pollsters showing giant Tory leads in GE2017 only to be burned then, too. Not the finest of performances, particularly disappointing from ICM, the former “gold standard”!
The table brings home that the Tories got within 0.1% of Labour and the Lib Dem’s put together. A truly remarkable achievement and one that really should have produced an even bigger majority than it did.
On the pollsters I think that Yougov must be particularly disappointed. They threw a lot of resource at this election and they set the story line for a chunk of it, possibly inaccurately. I wonder if it was ever as close as they were saying it was.
Actually, in vote terms the Conservatives got 1066 more votes than Labour and Lib Dem combined.
A stonking achievement, given the fractured nature of the vote.
Name a frontline politician who has been interviewed by Norton. There’s probably an example somewhere but Norton’s act (although much toned down and BBC-fied since his early days) is somewhat risqué and probably not what most politicians are after in an interview.
Somewhat off-topic, I've noticed that the current boundaries with the present distribution of votes do not seem to advantage either the Conservatives or Labour.
If you Baxter a hypothetical result by redistributing the share of the vote between Conservatives and Labour, keeping the other parties as they are, the crossover in the number of seats occurs roughly when you allocate equal votes to each party, i.e., because the GE result is based on a Conservative lead of 12 points, to get a roughly equal number of seats, you need to assume a six point Tory-Labour swing. On the proposed boundaries, however, you need to assume a more than seven point swing to reach crossover in seats.
In other words, the new boundaries are worth a couple of percentage points in vote share to the Conservatives, cet. par.
That's because of Scotland. Formerly Labour seats now are SNP seats but the SNP will never support the Conservatives and will support Labour into office.
We will be independent before they ever need to help Labour into office.
Hopefully that's true, but not in the way you intend.
Happy boxing, day everyone!
The political vocabulary around Scottish secession is looking pretty outdated now. By the end of 2020, Scots will be living in a fully independent country as will the English, Welsh and N Irish.
Numpty
Morning Malcolm, hope the turnips are thriving.
Anyway, I am off for a drive.
Morning Ydoethur, Merry Christmas to you and enjoy your drive.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
The table brings home that the Tories got within 0.1% of Labour and the Lib Dem’s put together. A truly remarkable achievement and one that really should have produced an even bigger majority than it did.
On the pollsters I think that Yougov must be particularly disappointed. They threw a lot of resource at this election and they set the story line for a chunk of it, possibly inaccurately. I wonder if it was ever as close as they were saying it was.
Except in Scotland, despite some fairly pitiful yearning beforehand.
That is because we are nasty nationalists , too stupid and too wee to understand his big joined up words.
Nonsense. The SNP performance was not up to 2015 standards but it was impressive enough. It’s the strategic implications of SLABs collapse that worries me as a unionist. They were the backbone of Better Together. Although the Tories are much stronger than they were then they will never reach deep into Glasgow and it’s environs. A lot of people and territory are becoming solid SNP.
We will be the better for it David but the last thing we need is for them to end up like Labour. We need the boil lanced sooner rather than later and then get some real Scottish opposition parties.
The SNP performance in government wanders from poor to abysmal, education definitely being in the latter camp. They have many of the Labour faults, statist, excessive regulators, more interested in the views of appointees than their competence, very unwilling to listen or admit mistakes and with an increasing air of entitlement. It makes building a viable economy much more difficult.
This seems to point to it being well exaggerated propaganda, who is right London unionists peddling their slanted view or the following
‘Only 66.9% of GCSE entrants in England got 1 or more GCSE awards compared to 86.1% in Scotland achieving 1 or more SCQF Level 5 awards.’
Bit like our NHS that always seems to have better results than England which is supposedly the best in the world etc Seems to be all part of the brain washing we get about everything in Scotland being the worst in the world and that we are the only country in the world incapable of running things. Lots of Scots believe this crap and accept the crap that we will never be able to run our own country. The London elite do a good job, best propaganda teams anywhere.
2017: People were inclined to think the best of Theresa May - despite some of the evidence.
2019: People were inclined to think the worst of Boris - beause of some of the evidence.
If however Boris should turn out to generally be a Good Egg as PM, there are plenty of voters to win back. Bad news for the LibDems - all of their literature at the end of the campaign was banging the anti-Boris drum.
The other factor in this election was the virtual absence of Con --> Labour switchers. I didn't a single one in six weeks of door-knocking.
(Thanks to all who expressed their best wishes to me on here regarding my mother. Sadly, she passed yesterday morning.)
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I would rather have poked my eyes out , was it as crap as I thought it would be.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I would rather have poked my eyes out , was it as crap as I thought it would be.
If you liked the original show, this was more of the same, with a big bag of nostalgia. If you didn’t like the original you are unlikely to like this.
It would be nice in the future if we could have a lot less of the extrapolations from local election and by-elections than we had yet again this time - and led to the absurdity of otherwise sensible folk twittering on about Jo Swinson being PM! at least we'll be spared the Euro election nonsense for the forseeable future.
Take off those blue tinted specs, that is the biggest amount of bollox I have read on here in a week or so. You could have picked anyone randomly and they would have beaten Corbyn, it was pure luck.
On 30th May Opinium had the Tories on 17%.
By 12th December they had recovered to 45%.
One of the party leaders changed in the interim, and it wasn't Corbyn.
Pure luck?
I don't like Johnson any more than you do, but it is never wise to underestimate your political opponents.
The table brings home that the Tories got within 0.1% of Labour and the Lib Dem’s put together. A truly remarkable achievement and one that really should have produced an even bigger majority than it did.
On the pollsters I think that Yougov must be particularly disappointed. They threw a lot of resource at this election and they set the story line for a chunk of it, possibly inaccurately. I wonder if it was ever as close as they were saying it was.
It is also very striking to consider that’s the highest Tory voteshare since 1979 (43.6% vs 43.9%). In an age where there are several parties fighting for votes and the nationwide demos is fractured, that’s quite an achievement.
As for your second point, I think Yougov will reflect that their first MRP (https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp) was astonishingly accurate - they got within six seats for the Tories, ten for Labour, five for the SNP and one for the Liberal Democrats. They also got the vote shares bang on. However, they may wish to reflect on why their model when updated became less accurate. My guess would be that politically engaged people (who are the majority on YouGov’s panels) started changing their views, but the majority of voters (who are not on voting panels) did not.
Two points.
POINT ONE. A simpler explanation would be that pollsters cannot use information from people who have already cast postal votes. By the time of the second MRP that group was larger and discarding them may have skewed the panel.
The table brings home that the Tories got within 0.1% of Labour and the Lib Dem’s put together. A truly remarkable achievement and one that really should have produced an even bigger majority than it did.
In fact, the Conservative Party polled not much better than in 2017: 44.7 up from 43.4%. The difference is Labour dropped a full eight points: 33.0 down from 41.0% two years ago.
The story of 2019 is not that Boris is a vote magnet. Theresa May did almost as well with just 330,000 fewer votes. It is either that Labour actively repelled voters, and I posted several times that their campaign promises were so obviously counter-productive they might almost have been designed by a Tory mole, or it is that CCHQ's under-the-radar social media campaigning was highly effective.
The full extent of that latter campaign has yet to be revealed.
The Conservative social media campaign in the last fortnight was extensive and varied, with thousands of different messages trailed to guage responses before the last week’s onslaught.
The team behind it included several that had been involved in Vote Leave, and what’s absolutely certain is that almost none of the messages were targeted at people living in London, engaged in politics and with Twitter accounts - so the Commentariat won’t have had a clue what was actually happening in the rest of the country.
You are right that the pundits did not have a clue what was being said up north on social media, and nor did political opponents. This imo is dangerous for democracy because there can be no debate. Plaid Cymru cannot deny it plans to outlaw the English language if it does not even realise the allegation is being made.
And what little we have been told is that untrue claims were being made.
I agree it was very striking just like all the crap about queues in Battersea on polling day while ignoring the rest of the country. Second biggest losers on the day were the metropolitan chatterati who continue to arrogantly sneer at the rest of the country and were given a well deserved kicking for their pains.
Lefty remainers drooling over lefty remainers taking pictures of loads of people who agree with them both and plastering them all over social media, while the conservative leavers just voted and went home....
...and then posted on here incessantly (sorry, couldn't resist it)
Name a frontline politician who has been interviewed by Norton. There’s probably an example somewhere but Norton’s act (although much toned down and BBC-fied since his early days) is somewhat risqué and probably not what most politicians are after in an interview.
Read the linked article. Harriet Harman is named. Ironically, Norton himself says politicians should be quizzed on proper news and current affairs programmes.
2017: People were inclined to think the best of Theresa May - despite some of the evidence.
2019: People were inclined to think the worst of Boris - beause of some of the evidence.
If however Boris should turn out to generally be a Good Egg as PM, there are plenty of voters to win back. Bad news for the LibDems - all of their literature at the end of the campaign was banging the anti-Boris drum.
The other factor in this election was the virtual absence of Con --> Labour switchers. I didn't a single one in six weeks of door-knocking.
(Thanks to all who expressed their best wishes to me on here regarding my mother. Sadly, she passed yesterday morning.)
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I would rather have poked my eyes out , was it as crap as I thought it would be.
If you liked the original show, this was more of the same, with a big bag of nostalgia. If you didn’t like the original you are unlikely to like this.
All-encompassing aversion to James Corden means I’ve never been able to go anywhere near it.
It would be nice in the future if we could have a lot less of the extrapolations from local election and by-elections than we had yet again this time - and led to the absurdity of otherwise sensible folk twittering on about Jo Swinson being PM! at least we'll be spared the Euro election nonsense for the forseeable future.
The cherry on the absurdity cake was the fact she didn't even win the Euro Elections!
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I would rather have poked my eyes out , was it as crap as I thought it would be.
It was a musical evening for us. The Magic Flute followed by Ron Howard's excellent Beatles documentary.
2017: People were inclined to think the best of Theresa May - despite some of the evidence.
2019: People were inclined to think the worst of Boris - beause of some of the evidence.
If however Boris should turn out to generally be a Good Egg as PM, there are plenty of voters to win back. Bad news for the LibDems - all of their literature at the end of the campaign was banging the anti-Boris drum.
The other factor in this election was the virtual absence of Con --> Labour switchers. I didn't a single one in six weeks of door-knocking.
(Thanks to all who expressed their best wishes to me on here regarding my mother. Sadly, she passed yesterday morning.)
The table brings home that the Tories got within 0.1% of Labour and the Lib Dem’s put together. A truly remarkable achievement and one that really should have produced an even bigger majority than it did.
On the pollsters I think that Yougov must be particularly disappointed. They threw a lot of resource at this election and they set the story line for a chunk of it, possibly inaccurately. I wonder if it was ever as close as they were saying it was.
The second MRP is what we will remember. After a spectacular 2017 it’s lost its magic. It also has to be said that those who claimed a Boris’s skills as a campaigner were grossly exaggerated were just wrong. He continues to reach voters few other Tories could get close to.
Except in Scotland, despite some fairly pitiful yearning beforehand.
That is because we are nasty nationalists , too stupid and too wee to understand his big joined up words.
Nonsense. The SNP performance was not up to 2015 standards but it was impressive enough. It’s the strategic implications of SLABs collapse that worries me as a unionist. They were the backbone of Better Together. Although the Tories are much stronger than they were then they will never reach deep into Glasgow and it’s environs. A lot of people and territory are becoming solid SNP.
We will be the better for it David but the last thing we need is for them to end up like Labour. We need the boil lanced sooner rather than later and then get some real Scottish opposition parties.
The SNP performance in government wanders from poor to abysmal, education definitely being in the latter camp. They have many of the Labour faults, statist, excessive regulators, more interested in the views of appointees than their competence, very unwilling to listen or admit mistakes and with an increasing air of entitlement. It makes building a viable economy much more difficult.
As a variation on how rubbish must you be if you were beaten by a slogan on the side of a bus argument, how crap must the SCons, SLab & SLDs be? I think we all know the answer to that.
He wasn't accusing them of being poor campaigners.
The table brings home that the Tories got within 0.1% of Labour and the Lib Dem’s put together. A truly remarkable achievement and one that really should have produced an even bigger majority than it did.
On the pollsters I think that Yougov must be particularly disappointed. They threw a lot of resource at this election and they set the story line for a chunk of it, possibly inaccurately. I wonder if it was ever as close as they were saying it was.
...they may wish to reflect on why their model when updated became less accurate. My guess would be that politically engaged people (who are the majority on their panels)...
Two points
POINT TWO: I'm not sure that politically engaged people do make up the majority of YouGov panels (especially since they've adopted techniques to try to obviate this). Can you tell me what is the percentage of politically engaged people is on YouGov panels pleas, and cite a source?
2017: People were inclined to think the best of Theresa May - despite some of the evidence.
2019: People were inclined to think the worst of Boris - beause of some of the evidence.
If however Boris should turn out to generally be a Good Egg as PM, there are plenty of voters to win back. Bad news for the LibDems - all of their literature at the end of the campaign was banging the anti-Boris drum.
The other factor in this election was the virtual absence of Con --> Labour switchers. I didn't a single one in six weeks of door-knocking.
(Thanks to all who expressed their best wishes to me on here regarding my mother. Sadly, she passed yesterday morning.)
I am deeply sorry to hear that. And very sad to hear about all the PBers who are enduring loss or illness at the moment. Very best wishes to all.
It would be nice in the future if we could have a lot less of the extrapolations from local election and by-elections than we had yet again this time - and led to the absurdity of otherwise sensible folk twittering on about Jo Swinson being PM! at least we'll be spared the Euro election nonsense for the forseeable future.
The cherry on the absurdity cake was the fact she didn't even win the Euro Elections!
The cherry on the wishful thinking cake was PB lefties believing that the Independent gains in the local elections was evidence of support for leftwing parties rather than populism.
2017: People were inclined to think the best of Theresa May - despite some of the evidence.
2019: People were inclined to think the worst of Boris - beause of some of the evidence.
If however Boris should turn out to generally be a Good Egg as PM, there are plenty of voters to win back. Bad news for the LibDems - all of their literature at the end of the campaign was banging the anti-Boris drum.
The other factor in this election was the virtual absence of Con --> Labour switchers. I didn't a single one in six weeks of door-knocking.
(Thanks to all who expressed their best wishes to me on here regarding my mother. Sadly, she passed yesterday morning.)
Sorry to hear that Mark
My condolences
Oh, arse. Sorry to hear that, @MarqueeMark . Go away and do what you need to do: we'll still be here when you get back.
2017: People were inclined to think the best of Theresa May - despite some of the evidence.
2019: People were inclined to think the worst of Boris - beause of some of the evidence.
If however Boris should turn out to generally be a Good Egg as PM, there are plenty of voters to win back. Bad news for the LibDems - all of their literature at the end of the campaign was banging the anti-Boris drum.
The other factor in this election was the virtual absence of Con --> Labour switchers. I didn't a single one in six weeks of door-knocking.
(Thanks to all who expressed their best wishes to me on here regarding my mother. Sadly, she passed yesterday morning.)
Very sorry to hear that MM, May she rest in peace.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
We watched the programme about the Beatles> it was very interesting.
Bit like our NHS that always seems to have better results than England which is supposedly the best in the world etc Seems to be all part of the brain washing we get about everything in Scotland being the worst in the world and that we are the only country in the world incapable of running things. Lots of Scots believe this crap and accept the crap that we will never be able to run our own country. The London elite do a good job, best propaganda teams anywhere.
It was Alex Salmond who called Scotland a nation of drunks. It is Nicola Sturgeon who said that because she was Scottish she had to be twice as good as everyone else. The people with hang ups and feelings of inadequacy about Scotland are on your side. The unionist Scots I've met are extremely proud of Scotland, love being Scottish, and are comfortable with both Scottish and British identities. Everyone I've met who wants to leave the UK (and I'm lucky to call several friends) are the most negative about Scotland and Scots, and the least comfortable with how they feel they are perceived. That's what indy runs on.
He wasn't accusing them of being poor campaigners.
Since the campaign against them (aside from the standard & laughably ineffective No to Indyref II from the SCons) was almost entirely based on their government performance, perhaps the SNP record isn't quite as bad as you think, unless you believe the Scotch electorate are easily gulled emptyheads?
Still, SCon, SLab & SLD campaigning AND policies, lol!
2017: People were inclined to think the best of Theresa May - despite some of the evidence.
2019: People were inclined to think the worst of Boris - beause of some of the evidence.
If however Boris should turn out to generally be a Good Egg as PM, there are plenty of voters to win back. Bad news for the LibDems - all of their literature at the end of the campaign was banging the anti-Boris drum.
The other factor in this election was the virtual absence of Con --> Labour switchers. I didn't a single one in six weeks of door-knocking.
(Thanks to all who expressed their best wishes to me on here regarding my mother. Sadly, she passed yesterday morning.)
Oh, Mark, I'm so sorry to hear that. Best wishes to you.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
Did you not see "Call The Midwife"? It had many Scottish people. You could tell they were Scottish people because they were very pale with glossy copper curls and being seduced by Sassenach decadent ways. I'm sure @malcolmg can attest to the accuracy of such a portrayal...
He wasn't accusing them of being poor campaigners.
Since the campaign against them (aside from the standard & laughably ineffective No to Indyref II from the SCons) was almost entirely based on their government performance, perhaps the SNP record isn't quite as bad as you think, unless you believe the Scotch electorate are easily gulled emptyheads?
Still, SCon, SLab & SLD campaigning AND policies, lol!
I think we're all capable of being empty-headed and easily gulled. It must be utterly exhausting never to have a discussion like this where you're not passively aggressively trying to illicit or suppose anti-Scottish comments or sentiments from unionists and or English posters.
The table brings home that the Tories got within 0.1% of Labour and the Lib Dem’s put together. A truly remarkable achievement and one that really should have produced an even bigger majority than it did.
On the pollsters I think that Yougov must be particularly disappointed. They threw a lot of resource at this election and they set the story line for a chunk of it, possibly inaccurately. I wonder if it was ever as close as they were saying it was.
Actually, in vote terms the Conservatives got 1066 more votes than Labour and Lib Dem combined.
A stonking achievement, given the fractured nature of the vote.
2017: People were inclined to think the best of Theresa May - despite some of the evidence.
2019: People were inclined to think the worst of Boris - beause of some of the evidence.
If however Boris should turn out to generally be a Good Egg as PM, there are plenty of voters to win back. Bad news for the LibDems - all of their literature at the end of the campaign was banging the anti-Boris drum.
The other factor in this election was the virtual absence of Con --> Labour switchers. I didn't a single one in six weeks of door-knocking.
(Thanks to all who expressed their best wishes to me on here regarding my mother. Sadly, she passed yesterday morning.)
Really sorry to hear that. A few years ago my mum collapsed on Christmas Eve and never really gained consciousness before dying in January. Always on mind at Christmas
Re the voters queuing I believe the photo was of Brixton rather than Battersea.
Now if we look at the actual results in the Brixton area:
Vauxhall Labour -1.2% Turnout -3.5%
Streatham Labour -13.7% Turnout -4.3%
Dulwich & West Norwood Labour -4.2% Turnout -2.6%
It shows that the actual results didn't even match the 'youthquake' claims even there.
There were queues at polling stations. Whether that was because there were not so many staff inside as in previous years, or people voting in a smaller time window or for some other reason, I do not know, but we saw the photos and I spoke to people on the day who had had to queue.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I would rather have poked my eyes out , was it as crap as I thought it would be.
If you liked the original show, this was more of the same, with a big bag of nostalgia. If you didn’t like the original you are unlikely to like this.
Cheers, I was not a fan of the original , dislike Corden especially and the welsh guy so I think I will not be watching.
He wasn't accusing them of being poor campaigners.
Since the campaign against them (aside from the standard & laughably ineffective No to Indyref II from the SCons) was almost entirely based on their government performance, perhaps the SNP record isn't quite as bad as you think, unless you believe the Scotch electorate are easily gulled emptyheads?
Still, SCon, SLab & SLD campaigning AND policies, lol!
I think we're all capable of being empty-headed and easily gulled. It must be utterly exhausting never to have a discussion like this where you're not passively aggressively trying to illicit or suppose anti-Scottish comments or sentiments from unionists and or English posters.
What complicated wee fantasies you weave for yoursel. Must be utterly exhausting.
Re the voters queuing I believe the photo was of Brixton rather than Battersea.
Now if we look at the actual results in the Brixton area:
Vauxhall Labour -1.2% Turnout -3.5%
Streatham Labour -13.7% Turnout -4.3%
Dulwich & West Norwood Labour -4.2% Turnout -2.6%
It shows that the actual results didn't even match the 'youthquake' claims even there.
There were queues at polling stations. Whether that was because there were not so many staff inside as in previous years, or people voting in a smaller time window or for some other reason, I do not know, but we saw the photos and I spoke to people on the day who had had to queue.
I suspect that there have always been queues at some polling stations for various reasons but the difference now is that its easier to publish images of it.
The table brings home that the Tories got within 0.1% of Labour and the Lib Dem’s put together. A truly remarkable achievement and one that really should have produced an even bigger majority than it did.
On the pollsters I think that Yougov must be particularly disappointed. They threw a lot of resource at this election and they set the story line for a chunk of it, possibly inaccurately. I wonder if it was ever as close as they were saying it was.
It is also very striking to consider that’s the highest Tory voteshare since 1979 (43.6% vs 43.9%). In an age where there are several parties fighting for votes and the nationwide demos is fractured, that’s quite an achievement.
As for your second point, I think Yougov will reflect that their first MRP (https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp) was astonishingly accurate - they got within six seats for the Tories, ten for Labour, five for the SNP and one for the Liberal Democrats. They also got the vote shares bang on. However, they may wish to reflect on why their model when updated became less accurate. My guess would be that politically engaged people (who are the majority on YouGov’s panels) started changing their views, but the majority of voters (who are not on voting panels) did not.
The second MRP is what we will remember. After a spectacular 2017 it’s lost its magic. It also has to be said that those who claimed a Boris’s skills as a campaigner were grossly exaggerated were just wrong. He continues to reach voters few other Tories could get close to.
In 2017 the first MRP issued was more accurate than the eve of poll MRP.
In 2017 its accuracy was remebered because it was going against the general polling.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I watched a documentary about the last days of Elvis. How he was essentially worked to death by the people he was making money for, and was neglected by those who could have saved him. Great Christmas viewing.
He wasn't accusing them of being poor campaigners.
Since the campaign against them (aside from the standard & laughably ineffective No to Indyref II from the SCons) was almost entirely based on their government performance, perhaps the SNP record isn't quite as bad as you think, unless you believe the Scotch electorate are easily gulled emptyheads?
Still, SCon, SLab & SLD campaigning AND policies, lol!
I think we're all capable of being empty-headed and easily gulled. It must be utterly exhausting never to have a discussion like this where you're not passively aggressively trying to illicit or suppose anti-Scottish comments or sentiments from unionists and or English posters.
You have to search fairly hard on here for positive Scottish comments outside a few people and the couple of independent thinking Scots. The constant prejorative use of "separists" and "secessionists" says it all, coupled with all the emigrant Scots like Carlotta , Harry etc who just cannot run down Scotland enough. We have little need to search for anti - Scottish rhetoric unfortunately. Unfortunately despite the fact we are scrounging losers , UK does not seem to want us to have a democratic vote on whether we wish to remain in a "Union of Equals".
Re queues: were there any stories this year of massive queues in the evening with people not being able to vote? I’m sure that there were examples of that in the past.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
Re the voters queuing I believe the photo was of Brixton rather than Battersea.
Now if we look at the actual results in the Brixton area:
Vauxhall Labour -1.2% Turnout -3.5%
Streatham Labour -13.7% Turnout -4.3%
Dulwich & West Norwood Labour -4.2% Turnout -2.6%
It shows that the actual results didn't even match the 'youthquake' claims even there.
What hasn't been mentioned in the media is how crap Labour did in many parts of Outer London:
Brent N -11.0% Hayes -10.7% Ealing N -9.5% Erith -9.5% Southall -9.4% Feltham -9.2% Croydon N -8.5% Brent C -8.4% Harrow W -8.4%
Same areas that won Boris the Mayoralty.
In London there was likely a swing away from the Conservatives among middle class white voters in Inner London and a swing to the Conservatives among working class non-white voters in Outer London.
The media view is of course dominated by the opinions and experiences of the first group.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
You have some good taste then David.
My SNP supporting devil gave me 2 books for Christmas. The first is Rory Stewart’s “The Marches” which I am very much looking forward to. The second was The Communist Manifesto. He has a wicked sense of humour. Bit like yourself I think in that he supports independence but is not quite so sure about the SNP (whilst recognising that they are an essential means to an end).
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
Re the voters queuing I believe the photo was of Brixton rather than Battersea.
Now if we look at the actual results in the Brixton area:
Vauxhall Labour -1.2% Turnout -3.5%
Streatham Labour -13.7% Turnout -4.3%
Dulwich & West Norwood Labour -4.2% Turnout -2.6%
It shows that the actual results didn't even match the 'youthquake' claims even there.
There were queues at polling stations. Whether that was because there were not so many staff inside as in previous years, or people voting in a smaller time window or for some other reason, I do not know, but we saw the photos and I spoke to people on the day who had had to queue.
Most likely a combination of it being dark in the evening, and that it was forecast to rain.
Re the voters queuing I believe the photo was of Brixton rather than Battersea.
Now if we look at the actual results in the Brixton area:
Vauxhall Labour -1.2% Turnout -3.5%
Streatham Labour -13.7% Turnout -4.3%
Dulwich & West Norwood Labour -4.2% Turnout -2.6%
It shows that the actual results didn't even match the 'youthquake' claims even there.
There were queues at polling stations. Whether that was because there were not so many staff inside as in previous years, or people voting in a smaller time window or for some other reason, I do not know, but we saw the photos and I spoke to people on the day who had had to queue.
Most likely a combination of it being dark in the evening, and that it was forecast to rain.
Plus other commitments to office parties, carol services and late night shopping.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
We watched the programme about the Beatles> it was very interesting.
I watched the documentary about Dolly Parton. Remarkably, she has been married to the same guy for over fifty years. He has no public profile whatsoever.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
You have some good taste then David.
My SNP supporting devil gave me 2 books for Christmas. The first is Rory Stewart’s “The Marches” which I am very much looking forward to. The second was The Communist Manifesto. He has a wicked sense of humour. Bit like yourself I think in that he supports independence but is not quite so sure about the SNP (whilst recognising that they are an essential means to an end).
Let me guess. The copy of the Communist Manifesto was published by a limited company publishing house and was purchased in competition with many other political manifestos via a widely-advertised market structure using a freely-floating currency.
He wasn't accusing them of being poor campaigners.
Since the campaign against them (aside from the standard & laughably ineffective No to Indyref II from the SCons) was almost entirely based on their government performance, perhaps the SNP record isn't quite as bad as you think, unless you believe the Scotch electorate are easily gulled emptyheads?
Still, SCon, SLab & SLD campaigning AND policies, lol!
I think we're all capable of being empty-headed and easily gulled. It must be utterly exhausting never to have a discussion like this where you're not passively aggressively trying to illicit or suppose anti-Scottish comments or sentiments from unionists and or English posters.
You have to search fairly hard on here for positive Scottish comments outside a few people and the couple of independent thinking Scots. The constant prejorative use of "separists" and "secessionists" says it all, coupled with all the emigrant Scots like Carlotta , Harry etc who just cannot run down Scotland enough. We have little need to search for anti - Scottish rhetoric unfortunately. Unfortunately despite the fact we are scrounging losers , UK does not seem to want us to have a democratic vote on whether we wish to remain in a "Union of Equals".
Scotland is a fantastic place. The Scottish people are fantastic too.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
You have some good taste then David.
My SNP supporting devil gave me 2 books for Christmas. The first is Rory Stewart’s “The Marches” which I am very much looking forward to. The second was The Communist Manifesto. He has a wicked sense of humour. Bit like yourself I think in that he supports independence but is not quite so sure about the SNP (whilst recognising that they are an essential means to an end).
Anyhoo. After an awkward discussion with my parent yesterday (who was impressed by Boris's pledge to prevent houses being sold to pay for care), I now have just had an awkward conversation with my disabled sibling who cannot understand how anybody can vote for that "fat blonde turd". Plus they haven't got a subscription to Sky Premiere so I can't see Avengers: Endgame. I hate all politicians...
He wasn't accusing them of being poor campaigners.
Since the campaign against them (aside from the standard & laughably ineffective No to Indyref II from the SCons) was almost entirely based on their government performance, perhaps the SNP record isn't quite as bad as you think, unless you believe the Scotch electorate are easily gulled emptyheads?
Still, SCon, SLab & SLD campaigning AND policies, lol!
I think we're all capable of being empty-headed and easily gulled. It must be utterly exhausting never to have a discussion like this where you're not passively aggressively trying to illicit or suppose anti-Scottish comments or sentiments from unionists and or English posters.
You have to search fairly hard on here for positive Scottish comments outside a few people and the couple of independent thinking Scots. The constant prejorative use of "separists" and "secessionists" says it all, coupled with all the emigrant Scots like Carlotta , Harry etc who just cannot run down Scotland enough. We have little need to search for anti - Scottish rhetoric unfortunately. Unfortunately despite the fact we are scrounging losers , UK does not seem to want us to have a democratic vote on whether we wish to remain in a "Union of Equals".
Scotland is a fantastic place. The Scottish people are fantastic too.
(That help?)
It does indeed and i have to say I think the same about England and the English, though would have to say would not be 100% in both cases, we both have our unsavoury characters but a very small minority thankfully.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
You have some good taste then David.
My SNP supporting devil gave me 2 books for Christmas. The first is Rory Stewart’s “The Marches” which I am very much looking forward to. The second was The Communist Manifesto. He has a wicked sense of humour. Bit like yourself I think in that he supports independence but is not quite so sure about the SNP (whilst recognising that they are an essential means to an end).
Let me guess. The copy of the Communist Manifesto was published by a limited company publishing house and was purchased in competition with many other political manifestos via a widely-advertised market structure using a freely-floating currency.
Ah, I see you are opposed to the system yet you live within the system. I am very wise.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
Same here.
And here
and here.
I treated myself to an ultra hd tv for xmas, SkyQ(reduced to 6.50 for 18 months) et all. Its the test match in SA..
He wasn't accusing them of being poor campaigners.
Since the campaign against them (aside from the standard & laughably ineffective No to Indyref II from the SCons) was almost entirely based on their government performance, perhaps the SNP record isn't quite as bad as you think, unless you believe the Scotch electorate are easily gulled emptyheads?
Still, SCon, SLab & SLD campaigning AND policies, lol!
I think we're all capable of being empty-headed and easily gulled. It must be utterly exhausting never to have a discussion like this where you're not passively aggressively trying to illicit or suppose anti-Scottish comments or sentiments from unionists and or English posters.
What complicated wee fantasies you weave for yoursel. Must be utterly exhausting.
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
He wasn't accusing them of being poor campaigners.
Since the campaign against them (aside from the standard & laughably ineffective No to Indyref II from the SCons) was almost entirely based on their government performance, perhaps the SNP record isn't quite as bad as you think, unless you believe the Scotch electorate are easily gulled emptyheads?
Still, SCon, SLab & SLD campaigning AND policies, lol!
I think we're all capable of being empty-headed and easily gulled. It must be utterly exhausting never to have a discussion like this where you're not passively aggressively trying to illicit or suppose anti-Scottish comments or sentiments from unionists and or English posters.
You have to search fairly hard on here for positive Scottish comments outside a few people and the couple of independent thinking Scots. The constant prejorative use of "separists" and "secessionists" says it all, coupled with all the emigrant Scots like Carlotta , Harry etc who just cannot run down Scotland enough. We have little need to search for anti - Scottish rhetoric unfortunately. Unfortunately despite the fact we are scrounging losers , UK does not seem to want us to have a democratic vote on whether we wish to remain in a "Union of Equals".
Scotland is a fantastic place. The Scottish people are fantastic too.
(That help?)
Well said. For me, it is Britain's best. The contribution of Scots to literature, music, science, art, architecture, industry, is utterly irreplaceable. Scotland defines punching above its weight. I have always seen myself as British over English (though I am proud to be English), and there is little point in pretending that all guff about oil revenues and the Barnet formula aside, the Union would be incalculably poorer without Scotland.
The table brings home that the Tories got within 0.1% of Labour and the Lib Dem’s put together. A truly remarkable achievement and one that really should have produced an even bigger majority than it did.
On the pollsters I think that Yougov must be particularly disappointed. They threw a lot of resource at this election and they set the story line for a chunk of it, possibly inaccurately. I wonder if it was ever as close as they were saying it was.
...they may wish to reflect on why their model when updated became less accurate. My guess would be that politically engaged people (who are the majority on their panels)...
Two points
POINT TWO: I'm not sure that politically engaged people do make up the majority of YouGov panels (especially since they've adopted techniques to try to obviate this). Can you tell me what is the percentage of politically engaged people is on YouGov panels pleas, and cite a source?
The issues with internet sampling are discussed here (albeit from an American perspective):
The only reason our TV was on yesterday was to have background Christmas songs. We had a great family day with 10 of us and games of Articulate into the evening. Best Christmas for quite a while.
Gavin and Stacey literally the only tv show we watched yesterday.
I have never watched Gavin and Stacey. It just doesn’t appeal at all.
You have some good taste then David.
My SNP supporting devil gave me 2 books for Christmas. The first is Rory Stewart’s “The Marches” which I am very much looking forward to. The second was The Communist Manifesto. He has a wicked sense of humour. Bit like yourself I think in that he supports independence but is not quite so sure about the SNP (whilst recognising that they are an essential means to an end).
Let me guess. The copy of the Communist Manifesto was published by a limited company publishing house and was purchased in competition with many other political manifestos via a widely-advertised market structure using a freely-floating currency.
Ah, I see you are opposed to the system yet you live within the system. I am very wise.
If think you may have mixed my reply up with the OP
Sorry to hear your news @MarqueeMark , my condolences.
A few points:
1) Was this really a strong campaign? The result at the end was very much the polling picture at the beginning. It may well be that all the activity is nessecary, but the reality is a war of attrition. Indeed this is the pattern of most campaigns, with the 2017 being a notable exception. We started and ended pretty much where we began.
2) A supplement to this is that the first YouGov MRP was more accurate than the second, as people get lost in the fog. It is in the interests of all parties and media to talk up the contest as close. The first MRP was also at the time of postal voting, which was higher than ever.
3) The Tory party didn't get many converts, it was the 3 million lost by Jezza that produced the result, lost to LD, SNP and mostly to DNV.
4) The result under FPTP is decisive, so Brexit will happen, but there is no evidence that underlying opinion has changed. This does not bode well for national unity if things get rocky.
5) It looks like I am not the only one puzzled at the country's enthusiasm for James Corden. His appeal is lost on me.
Deepest sympathy. My mother died at Christmastime some years ago and like you, I never got a chance to see her. So I have a fair idea of how you’re feeling right now, and it sucks.
He wasn't accusing them of being poor campaigners.
Since the campaign against them (aside from the standard & laughably ineffective No to Indyref II from the SCons) was almost entirely based on their government performance, perhaps the SNP record isn't quite as bad as you think, unless you believe the Scotch electorate are easily gulled emptyheads?
Still, SCon, SLab & SLD campaigning AND policies, lol!
I think we're all capable of being empty-headed and easily gulled. It must be utterly exhausting never to have a discussion like this where you're not passively aggressively trying to illicit or suppose anti-Scottish comments or sentiments from unionists and or English posters.
You have to search fairly hard on here for positive Scottish comments outside a few people and the couple of independent thinking Scots. The constant prejorative use of "separists" and "secessionists" says it all, coupled with all the emigrant Scots like Carlotta , Harry etc who just cannot run down Scotland enough. We have little need to search for anti - Scottish rhetoric unfortunately. Unfortunately despite the fact we are scrounging losers , UK does not seem to want us to have a democratic vote on whether we wish to remain in a "Union of Equals".
Scotland is a fantastic place. The Scottish people are fantastic too.
(That help?)
Well said. For me, it is Britain's best. The contribution of Scots to literature, music, science, art, architecture, industry, is utterly irreplaceable. Scotland defines punching above its weight. I have always seen myself as British over English (though I am proud to be English), and there is little point in pretending that all guff about oil revenues and the Barnet formula aside, the Union would be incalculably poorer without Scotland.
Sorry to hear your news @MarqueeMark , my condolences.
A few points:
1) Was this really a strong campaign? The result at the end was very much the polling picture at the beginning. It may well be that all the activity is nessecary, but the reality is a war of attrition. Indeed this is the pattern of most campaigns, with the 2017 being a notable exception. We started and ended pretty much where we began.
2) A supplement to this is that the first YouGov MRP was more accurate than the second, as people get lost in the fog. It is in the interests of all parties and media to talk up the contest as close. The first MRP was also at the time of postal voting, which was higher than ever.
3) The Tory party didn't get many converts, it was the 3 million lost by Jezza that produced the result, lost to LD, SNP and mostly to DNV.
4) The result under FPTP is decisive, so Brexit will happen, but there is no evidence that underlying opinion has changed. This does not bode well for national unity if things get rocky.
5) It looks like I am not the only one puzzled at the country's enthusiasm for James Corden. His appeal is lost on me.
re: 5)
James Cordon is one of a few celebrities who are immensely popular, yet I find unexceptional at best.
It can be uncomfortable to go against the crowd but I am emboldened by the fact that folk I know whose taste I don`t particularly admire love Corden and others that make me recoil, such as: Michael McIntyre, Peter Kay, Graham Norton and anything to do with Strictly Come Dancing.
You know the one thing I think I may recall of 2019 is not all the Brexit kerfuffle. I think it's more that 'Bercow' should never have been 'one across' in the crossword.
He may get all sorts of honours and the like - but top billing in the PB Xmas crossword!?
(I have little recollection of previous 'one across' accolades, but please do enlighten me if you happen to know)
Bit like our NHS that always seems to have better results than England which is supposedly the best in the world etc Seems to be all part of the brain washing we get about everything in Scotland being the worst in the world and that we are the only country in the world incapable of running things. Lots of Scots believe this crap and accept the crap that we will never be able to run our own country. The London elite do a good job, best propaganda teams anywhere.
The 66.9% figure for GCSE entrants achieving 1 or more GCSEs is wrong. Having followed the links to get to the source, that is a completely different figure which someone posting on talkingupscotlandtwo.com has misunderstood. I can't find a figure for the number who get 1 or more GCSE awards but 82% achieve 5 or more GCSEs at grade 4 or above (equivalent to a C in the old system).
However, as I understand it SCQF Level 5 is broadly equivalent to A-level so I'm not sure why the poster wants to compare it with GCSE results. The A-level pass rate in England is 97.5%.
Sorry to hear your news @MarqueeMark , my condolences.
A few points:
1) Was this really a strong campaign? The result at the end was very much the polling picture at the beginning. It may well be that all the activity is nessecary, but the reality is a war of attrition. Indeed this is the pattern of most campaigns, with the 2017 being a notable exception. We started and ended pretty much where we began.
2) A supplement to this is that the first YouGov MRP was more accurate than the second, as people get lost in the fog. It is in the interests of all parties and media to talk up the contest as close. The first MRP was also at the time of postal voting, which was higher than ever.
3) The Tory party didn't get many converts, it was the 3 million lost by Jezza that produced the result, lost to LD, SNP and mostly to DNV.
4) The result under FPTP is decisive, so Brexit will happen, but there is no evidence that underlying opinion has changed. This does not bode well for national unity if things get rocky.
5) It looks like I am not the only one puzzled at the country's enthusiasm for James Corden. His appeal is lost on me.
re: 5)
James Cordon is one of a few celebrities who are immensely popular, yet I find unexceptional at best.
It can be uncomfortable to go against the crowd but I am emboldened by the fact that folk I know whose taste I don`t particularly admire love Corden and others that make me recoil, such as: Michael McIntyre, Peter Kay, Graham Norton and anything to do with Strictly Come Dancing.
I am with you Stocky , hate every one of those listed especially Corden.
You know the one thing I think I may recall of 2019 is not all the Brexit kerfuffle. I think it's more that 'Bercow' should never have been 'one across' in the crossword.
He may get all sorts of honours and the like - but top billing in the PB Xmas crossword!?
(I have little recollection of previous 'one across' accolades, but please do enlighten me if you happen to know)
That is petty , he saved parliamentary democracy from the nasty Tories. He should be enobled forthwith.
Sorry to hear your news @MarqueeMark , my condolences.
A few points:
1) Was this really a strong campaign? The result at the end was very much the polling picture at the beginning. It may well be that all the activity is nessecary, but the reality is a war of attrition. Indeed this is the pattern of most campaigns, with the 2017 being a notable exception. We started and ended pretty much where we began.
2) A supplement to this is that the first YouGov MRP was more accurate than the second, as people get lost in the fog. It is in the interests of all parties and media to talk up the contest as close. The first MRP was also at the time of postal voting, which was higher than ever.
3) The Tory party didn't get many converts, it was the 3 million lost by Jezza that produced the result, lost to LD, SNP and mostly to DNV.
4) The result under FPTP is decisive, so Brexit will happen, but there is no evidence that underlying opinion has changed. This does not bode well for national unity if things get rocky.
5) It looks like I am not the only one puzzled at the country's enthusiasm for James Corden. His appeal is lost on me.
re: 5)
James Cordon is one of a few celebrities who are immensely popular, yet I find unexceptional at best.
It can be uncomfortable to go against the crowd but I am emboldened by the fact that folk I know whose taste I don`t particularly admire love Corden and others that make me recoil, such as: Michael McIntyre, Peter Kay, Graham Norton and anything to do with Strictly Come Dancing.
I saw One Man Two Guvnors with him in and he was brilliant. Not so convinced by his TV work though.
Watched the French art movie "I lost my body" at Christmas (Netflix) with family. Reviews are wonderful. The 30-year-old thought it was pretty good, the 60-year-old thought it was OK, the 69 (me) and 90 year old thought it made no sense at all.
Anither bloody generation gap. Do other people like it?
Comments
Norton points out: "When Boris [Johnson] was mayor [of London] I think we asked him to be on quite a lot, but he never wanted to do it."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-45821850
The safest Labour seat in Wales is not in the Valleys or in the old steel and coal towns. It is ...
... the affluent, University dominated Cardiff Central, which stretches from the museums & shops of the city centre to the Llanishen golf course.
All in all, the pollsters did pretty well. ICM and ComRes... didn’t. Also worth mentioning that they were two of the pollsters showing giant Tory leads in GE2017 only to be burned then, too. Not the finest of performances, particularly disappointing from ICM, the former “gold standard”!
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1210110735189233665?s=20
A stonking achievement, given the fractured nature of the vote.
The safest Conservative seat in Wales is Montgomershire which was also LibDem up to 2010.
The safest Plaid seat in Wales is Ceredigion which was LibDem up to 2017.
The LibDems have really screwed up in Wales.
1) Largest Conservative vote increase
2) Largest Conservative vote decrease
3) Larges Labour vote increase
4) Largest Labour vote decrease
‘Only 66.9% of GCSE entrants in England got 1 or more GCSE awards compared to 86.1% in Scotland achieving 1 or more SCQF Level 5 awards.’
https://www.tes.com/news/its-guff-scottish-education-terrible
Bit like our NHS that always seems to have better results than England which is supposedly the best in the world etc
Seems to be all part of the brain washing we get about everything in Scotland being the worst in the world and that we are the only country in the world incapable of running things. Lots of Scots believe this crap and accept the crap that we will never be able to run our own country. The London elite do a good job, best propaganda teams anywhere.
2019: People were inclined to think the worst of Boris - beause of some of the evidence.
If however Boris should turn out to generally be a Good Egg as PM, there are plenty of voters to win back. Bad news for the LibDems - all of their literature at the end of the campaign was banging the anti-Boris drum.
The other factor in this election was the virtual absence of Con --> Labour switchers. I didn't a single one in six weeks of door-knocking.
(Thanks to all who expressed their best wishes to me on here regarding my mother. Sadly, she passed yesterday morning.)
By 12th December they had recovered to 45%.
One of the party leaders changed in the interim, and it wasn't Corbyn.
Pure luck?
I don't like Johnson any more than you do, but it is never wise to underestimate your political opponents.
POINT ONE. A simpler explanation would be that pollsters cannot use information from people who have already cast postal votes. By the time of the second MRP that group was larger and discarding them may have skewed the panel.
My condolences
POINT TWO: I'm not sure that politically engaged people do make up the majority of YouGov panels (especially since they've adopted techniques to try to obviate this). Can you tell me what is the percentage of politically engaged people is on YouGov panels pleas, and cite a source?
Still, SCon, SLab & SLD campaigning AND policies, lol!
Now if we look at the actual results in the Brixton area:
Vauxhall
Labour -1.2%
Turnout -3.5%
Streatham
Labour -13.7%
Turnout -4.3%
Dulwich & West Norwood
Labour -4.2%
Turnout -2.6%
It shows that the actual results didn't even match the 'youthquake' claims even there.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1210110735189233665
Brent N -11.0%
Hayes -10.7%
Ealing N -9.5%
Erith -9.5%
Southall -9.4%
Feltham -9.2%
Croydon N -8.5%
Brent C -8.4%
Harrow W -8.4%
In 2017 its accuracy was remebered because it was going against the general polling.
The media view is of course dominated by the opinions and experiences of the first group.
As I understand it the majority of seats the tories took from labour the turnout was down.
(That help?)
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1210137315940749320?s=20
I treated myself to an ultra hd tv for xmas, SkyQ(reduced to 6.50 for 18 months) et all. Its the test match in SA..
Worth every penny.
For me what is interesting is that a lot of pollsters using differing methodologies got the same accurate result.
https://www.surveypractice.org/article/2771-characteristics-of-the-population-of-internet-panel-members
The figures you ask for, including a pretty frank discussion of possible issues, are here:
https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/how-fresh-is-the-british-election-study-internet-panel/#.XgS4cy-nyf1
A few points:
1) Was this really a strong campaign? The result at the end was very much the polling picture at the beginning. It may well be that all the activity is nessecary, but the reality is a war of attrition. Indeed this is the pattern of most campaigns, with the 2017 being a notable exception. We started and ended pretty much where we began.
2) A supplement to this is that the first YouGov MRP was more accurate than the second, as people get lost in the fog. It is in the interests of all parties and media to talk up the contest as close. The first MRP was also at the time of postal voting, which was higher than ever.
3) The Tory party didn't get many converts, it was the 3 million lost by Jezza that produced the result, lost to LD, SNP and mostly to DNV.
4) The result under FPTP is decisive, so Brexit will happen, but there is no evidence that underlying opinion has changed. This does not bode well for national unity if things get rocky.
5) It looks like I am not the only one puzzled at the country's enthusiasm for James Corden. His appeal is lost on me.
Deepest sympathy. My mother died at Christmastime some years ago and like you, I never got a chance to see her. So I have a fair idea of how you’re feeling right now, and it sucks.
They can’t get de Kock out.
Are you going on absolute votes or %
Redcar over 12% for 1)
James Cordon is one of a few celebrities who are immensely popular, yet I find unexceptional at best.
It can be uncomfortable to go against the crowd but I am emboldened by the fact that folk I know whose taste I don`t particularly admire love Corden and others that make me recoil, such as: Michael McIntyre, Peter Kay, Graham Norton and anything to do with Strictly Come Dancing.
He may get all sorts of honours and the like - but top billing in the PB Xmas crossword!?
(I have little recollection of previous 'one across' accolades, but please do enlighten me if you happen to know)
However, as I understand it SCQF Level 5 is broadly equivalent to A-level so I'm not sure why the poster wants to compare it with GCSE results. The A-level pass rate in England is 97.5%.
Grimsby was +12.7%
Bassetlaw was +11.9%
but Mansfield was +17.3%, Walsall North was +14.2% and Stoke South was +13.1%.
All three were Conservative gains in 2017.
If the Conservatives gains of 2019 have similar patterns ...
Also does anyone know why Blackburn and Burnley now have totally different electoral patterns ?
Anither bloody generation gap. Do other people like it?