This comes back to a fundamental point: that Labour Leavers are not 'true Brexiteers.' They have never 'believed' in it ideologically like the Far Right.
Pretty offensive to claim that only the 'Far Right' believe in Brexit.
She’s a paid troll It’s not worth your time
She isn't Charles. Bot-calling and closing your mind to a genuine person is one of the many signs that this country is in trouble.
When the dust settles on this election I predict that 95% of people, you included, will come to see the visceral damage caused by the shenanigans of Johnson and Cummings.
LOL, Charles is one of the establishment elite, what makes you think he will care a jot.
Incidentally, one striking result in that Survation poll was the proportion who think immigration is important in deciding their vote. TWO per cent. Mysteriously, people have just stopped worrying about it.
It's not really that mysterious Nick. The referendum acted as a pressure valve. Now that people think democratic control over immigration will be restored, it's slipped way down the list of voter concerns. If Brexit is arrested and there's another big round of immigration from Southern Europe upon the next Eurozone crisis, expect it to return as a major issue again.
One of the mysteries of this campaign is how little time has been spent on the economy. I might be biased as I work in business but this seems to me as the key to the future. Social care and nhs depend a lot more on a strong economy than the political party in charge. To me neither major party has a good plan for the economy. In the meantime business has made up its mind and continues to disinvest from the UK.
Putting Survation into my model makes no change to the Tory majority. Still ten. Lab up one seat, LD down one seat to 26. Shares Con/Lab/LD 42.5/31.8/13.7 a 10.7% Tory lead. Because I use EMA the average lags any abrupt step change. If, for instance, you add 2% to Lab and subtract 2% from LD giving a Tory lead of 9.7% then the Tory notional majority disappears. Tory 325 seats.
I’m enjoying chaos with Mick Cash in SWR this morning.
I have three weeks of it now.
It’s a militant union just like the NUM and needs to be Thatcherised, quite frankly.
In 2019. Why don't we have driverless trains already? That surely has to be the solution.
We do where a digital railway has already been rolled out, with DOO CCTV on all the platforms and new rolling stock. Places like London Overground, C2C and Thameslink. And, also, Crossrail when it opens.
The RMT are fighting a strong rearguard action to halt its spread, and hopefully reverse it, because they want to keep control of the train doors.
Intelligent comment from Corporeal as always. That said, I actually do think that Brexit division has peaked. The polls are showing a decline in people who think it's the key issue, and either we'll pull out or we'll have a referendum and almost certainly not pull out. After either outcome, people who obsess about it will be regarded with some horror by everyone else. Sure, there will be endless discussions about trade deals, but most people will switch off from those, even though they shouldn't.
Incidentally, one striking result in that Survation poll was the proportion who think immigration is important in deciding their vote. TWO per cent. Mysteriously, people have just stopped worrying about it.
Do we think that the Johnson attempt to big up "tough on terrorists" will work, by the way? I think his reputation makes it hard for him to sell - it's so obviously an election stunt. People who like him will like it, others simply won't believe there's anything concrete behind it and it's just more guff.
Typical of a sleazeball, trying to make something out of a disaster. No thought for the parents of those killed, just a chiseller on the make. Unedifying to say the least, but he has no shame so would not even occur to him that it is nasty.
I’m enjoying chaos with Mick Cash in SWR this morning.
I have three weeks of it now.
It’s a militant union just like the NUM and needs to be Thatcherised, quite frankly.
In 2019. Why don't we have driverless trains already? That surely has to be the solution.
We do where a digital railway has already been rolled out, with DOO CCTV on all the platforms and new rolling stock. Places like London Overground, C2C and Thameslink. And, also, Crossrail when it opens.
The RMT are fighting a strong rearguard action to halt its spread, and hopefully reverse it, because they want to keep control of the train doors.
If the Tories win a healthy majority they should support making all trains driverless. Or would that require the Mayor's support.
I’m enjoying chaos with Mick Cash in SWR this morning.
I have three weeks of it now.
It’s a militant union just like the NUM and needs to be Thatcherised, quite frankly.
In the Southern Trains dispute the company was culpable. Utterly incompetent and political.
This is the RMT’s doing.
Don’t be in any doubt about that.
The failing of SWR (first group/MTR) was to undercut stagecoach on the franchise bid by cutting spare rolling stock and staff to the bone to save operating costs, which has made peturbed/degraded service recovery absolutely shocking.
Putting Survation into my model makes no change to the Tory majority. Still ten. Lab up one seat, LD down one seat to 26. Shares Con/Lab/LD 42.5/31.8/13.7 a 10.7% Tory lead. Because I use EMA the average lags any abrupt step change. If, for instance, you add 2% to Lab and subtract 2% from LD giving a Tory lead of 9.7% then the Tory notional majority disappears. Tory 325 seats.
Ignoring Sinn Fein, isn't 325 Tory seats a de facto majority of one? If they all voted for say the PMs Brexit deal (or a Queen's Speech), the best the rest could get is one less. It passes. The Speaker will only have a vote if it is a tie. Which it isn't, as he won't have voted.
Intelligent comment from Corporeal as always. That said, I actually do think that Brexit division has peaked. The polls are showing a decline in people who think it's the key issue, and either we'll pull out or we'll have a referendum and almost certainly not pull out. After either outcome, people who obsess about it will be regarded with some horror by everyone else. Sure, there will be endless discussions about trade deals, but most people will switch off from those, even though they shouldn't.
Incidentally, one striking result in that Survation poll was the proportion who think immigration is important in deciding their vote. TWO per cent. Mysteriously, people have just stopped worrying about it.
Do we think that the Johnson attempt to big up "tough on terrorists" will work, by the way? I think his reputation makes it hard for him to sell - it's so obviously an election stunt. People who like him will like it, others simply won't believe there's anything concrete behind it and it's just more guff.
Always harder for the governing party to campaign on "It's a disgrace, and something should be done about it."
A little easier when the current PM has been in post three months - and resigned from the previous regime.....
I’m enjoying chaos with Mick Cash in SWR this morning.
I have three weeks of it now.
It’s a militant union just like the NUM and needs to be Thatcherised, quite frankly.
In 2019. Why don't we have driverless trains already? That surely has to be the solution.
We do where a digital railway has already been rolled out, with DOO CCTV on all the platforms and new rolling stock. Places like London Overground, C2C and Thameslink. And, also, Crossrail when it opens.
The RMT are fighting a strong rearguard action to halt its spread, and hopefully reverse it, because they want to keep control of the train doors.
If the Tories win a healthy majority they should support making all trains driverless. Or would that require the Mayor's support.
This isn't an argument about drivers - it's about guards and who controls the button to restart the train at a station.
It's not about drivers yet - we are a long way from the time when 30+ miles of track can be fully protected from people wandering onto the track.
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Intelligent comment from Corporeal as always. That said, I actually do think that Brexit division has peaked. The polls are showing a decline in people who think it's the key issue, and either we'll pull out or we'll have a referendum and almost certainly not pull out. After either outcome, people who obsess about it will be regarded with some horror by everyone else. Sure, there will be endless discussions about trade deals, but most people will switch off from those, even though they shouldn't.
Incidentally, one striking result in that Survation poll was the proportion who think immigration is important in deciding their vote. TWO per cent. Mysteriously, people have just stopped worrying about it.
Do we think that the Johnson attempt to big up "tough on terrorists" will work, by the way? I think his reputation makes it hard for him to sell - it's so obviously an election stunt. People who like him will like it, others simply won't believe there's anything concrete behind it and it's just more guff.
Always harder for the governing party to campaign on "It's a disgrace, and something should be done about it."
A little easier when the current PM has been in post three months - and resigned from the previous regime.....
Perhaps, if he can convincingly pretend he didn't know people with terrorist convictions were being released on licence and had no responsibility to inform himself about it - as Jo Swinson seemed to be close to claiming a couple of days ago.
Interesting article, while Corbyn has won back some Remainers from the LDs helped by his EUref2 commitment what could still cost him the election is Labour Leave voters going Tory or Brexit Party in Northern, Welsh or Midlands marginal Labour Leave seats
This comes back to a fundamental point: that Labour Leavers are not 'true Brexiteers.' They have never 'believed' in it ideologically like the Far Right.
Pretty offensive to claim that only the 'Far Right' believe in Brexit.
She’s a paid troll It’s not worth your time
She isn't Charles. Bot-calling and closing your mind to a genuine person is one of the many signs that this country is in trouble.
When the dust settles on this election I predict that 95% of people, you included, will come to see the visceral damage caused by the shenanigans of Johnson and Cummings.
LOL, Charles is one of the establishment elite, what makes you think he will care a jot.
Interesting article, while Corbyn has won back some Remainers from the LDs helped by his EUref2 commitment what could still cost him the election is Labour Leave voters going Tory or Brexit Party in Northern, Welsh or Midlands marginal Labour Leave seats
I'm happy and strongly recommend any leave voters who wish to vote for the Brexit party to vote for them.
Yes, Labour loses a vote but it only does 50% of the harm switching to the Tory candidate does.
This comes back to a fundamental point: that Labour Leavers are not 'true Brexiteers.' They have never 'believed' in it ideologically like the Far Right.
Pretty offensive to claim that only the 'Far Right' believe in Brexit.
She’s a paid troll It’s not worth your time
She isn't Charles. Bot-calling and closing your mind to a genuine person is one of the many signs that this country is in trouble.
When the dust settles on this election I predict that 95% of people, you included, will come to see the visceral damage caused by the shenanigans of Johnson and Cummings.
LOL, Charles is one of the establishment elite, what makes you think he will care a jot.
His butler might get upset?
Other butlers are available were his views to impact his work.
Erhhh that's not fair SO....it is exactly what the EU announced earlier this year would be their policy for all tourists from non-EU countries and that would include the UK. They could have easily given a special exemption in the way US / Canada do.
One of the mysteries of this campaign is how little time has been spent on the economy. I might be biased as I work in business but this seems to me as the key to the future. Social care and nhs depend a lot more on a strong economy than the political party in charge. To me neither major party has a good plan for the economy. In the meantime business has made up its mind and continues to disinvest from the UK.
I think it's too big and complicated for most of us to be willing to think about it, and the parties follow suit. We are probably fecked when the next recession hits.
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Let's not spin in - it's disgusting, pure and simple. The hard right are on the march here in the UK. If you're of foreign descent, be afraid, be very afraid.
Incidentally, one striking result in that Survation poll was the proportion who think immigration is important in deciding their vote. TWO per cent. Mysteriously, people have just stopped worrying about it.
It's not really that mysterious Nick. The referendum acted as a pressure valve. Now that people think democratic control over immigration will be restored, it's slipped way down the list of voter concerns. If Brexit is arrested and there's another big round of immigration from Southern Europe upon the next Eurozone crisis, expect it to return as a major issue again.
Like you I think that the Brexit result has contributed to lancing the boil. But the decline in growth (not actually a decline) of European immigration has been accompanied by a surge in non-European immigration. Unlike some I don't think most concern about immigration is all about racism, but it's even less about specific prejudice against, say, Poles, so why people could feel that replacing Poles with people from another country makes a difference does seem to me odd.
My tenative conclusion is that it's really driven mainly by news headlines. There hasn't been much about waves of immigration lately, so it's not front of mind any more. If four Bulgarian nurses are replaced by four Indian nurses, people don't really notice or care very much - they go by the headlines on the national picture.
By the way, this is the reason they're changing tack and going hard into their own Labour Leave heartlands. They think they've found the golden ticket.
They're hammering the message to leavers that Johnson's deal is crap (it really is) and that they can get an improved one 'within six moths' that will protect trade and jobs. Then they offer that for a final say.
To leaver ears that is remain.
Labour are taking voters for fools if they think they will be able to sell that in the Mids/NW/NE.
This comes back to a fundamental point: that Labour Leavers are not 'true Brexiteers.' They have never 'believed' in it ideologically like the Far Right. What they care about, as evidenced time and again in all opinion polling, is other issues which matter to them. This is why the Labour stance is now getting traction and why in the recent polling they have seen a 5% uplift in Labour Leave voters returning to Labour. Because their messags is that Johnson's deal will threatent their jobs, their livelihoods and the NHS.
It's a powerful message and it's working.
Labour are coming home. They always do.
Throw into that the brilliantly targetted LibDem work in key constituencies, masked in the national opinion polling, as well as the SNP gains in Scotland, and I am pretty sure now that we're looking at another hung parliament.
Oh and right on cue we have Donald Trump landing in Britain.
No we aren't, as Yougov MRP showed about 44 Labour mainly Leave seats are going Tory, the Tories are only losing 2 seats to the SNP and the LDs are only gaining 3 Tory seats.
Plus polling shows Trump is far more popular with Leave voters than Remain voters anyway and while 73% of Leave voters back Boris now the Tories are already 3rd with Remainers anyway
I’m enjoying chaos with Mick Cash in SWR this morning. I have three weeks of it now. It’s a militant union just like the NUM and needs to be Thatcherised, quite frankly.
In 2019. Why don't we have driverless trains already? That surely has to be the solution.
We do where a digital railway has already been rolled out, with DOO CCTV on all the platforms and new rolling stock. Places like London Overground, C2C and Thameslink. And, also, Crossrail when it opens. The RMT are fighting a strong rearguard action to halt its spread, and hopefully reverse it, because they want to keep control of the train doors.
Good to hear the technology is there, hope there are more driverless trains running soon.
I believe Yvette Cooper was the first person to politicise this but also there were numerous victims. Just because one of them has a certain political ideology it doesn’t mean that the government shouldn’t be taking measures to reassure and protect the public.
I have thought for a while that this election is almost an existential threat for whichever of the main parties loses.
If Boris wins and Brexit is done then Labour are likely to have some severe internal bloodletting whilst they decide the direction they are going to travel. I find it hard to see how they won't split.
The Tories wouldn't be in a much better position either if they lost.
We've been predicting a possible Labour split for some time and it hasn't happened. Tribal loyalty (and the desire to hold on to their jobs) keeps trumping the divisions for almost the whole PLP. All those who were going to give up on Labour arguably already have.
The Tories, on the other hand, are in mortal danger if they lose power, for they are not loved and really have only one purpose in our political system: to act as a device for people who fear Labour to lock them out of power. If the Tories can't even beat a candidate for high office as obviously unsuitable as Jeremy Corbyn, so this argument goes, then what use are they?
Rubbish. The Tories are a conservative pro Brexit Party, their purpose is not some sort of Heathite, pro EU centrism solely to keep Labour out now, most Tory voters are ideological now, the Heathites have gone LD and in the unlikely event Corbyn won a new leader like Priti Patel would revive the Tories under a new Thatcherite agenda to attack the disaster that would be a Corbyn government.
If Labour lose and pick another hard left leader and Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster and succeeds Swinson as LD leader he could appeal to many BME or moderate Labour voters as an ex Labour MP
I believe Yvette Cooper was the first person to politicise this but also there were numerous victims. Just because one of them has a certain political ideology it doesn’t mean that the government shouldn’t be taking measures to reassure and protect the public.
Personally although I strongly dislike any party playing hardball with this stuff it has become standard. In 2017 we all remember the May grandstanding after the terror attacks and Labour using it as a tool to talk about police cuts. Unfortunately it appears to be the way of the world now.
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
If the government had said we are going to do nothing, there would be equal outcry.
Unless the family said please don't use images of our children who were killed, as I am also not sure the Daily Mail / Express have done anything out of the ordinary when it comes to placing a picture of them....it happens every time a tradegy occurs.
By the way, this is the reason they're changing tack and going hard into their own Labour Leave heartlands. They think they've found the golden ticket.
They're hammering the message to leavers that Johnson's deal is crap (it really is) and that they can get an improved one 'within six moths' that will protect trade and jobs. Then they offer that for a final say.
To leaver ears that is remain.
Labour are taking voters for fools if they think they will be able to sell that in the Mids/NW/NE.
This comes back to a fundamental point: that Labour Leavers are not 'true Brexiteers.' They have never 'believed' in it ideologically like the Far Right. What they care about, as evidenced time and again in all opinion polling, is other issues which matter to them. This is why the Labour stance is now getting traction and why in the recent polling they have seen a 5% uplift in Labour Leave voters returning to Labour. Because their messags is that Johnson's deal will threatent their jobs, their livelihoods and the NHS.
It's a powerful message and it's working.
Labour are coming home. They always do.
Throw into that the brilliantly targetted LibDem work in key constituencies, masked in the national opinion polling, as well as the SNP gains in Scotland, and I am pretty sure now that we're looking at another hung parliament.
Oh and right on cue we have Donald Trump landing in Britain.
No we aren't, as Yougov MRP showed about 44 Labour mainly Leave seats are going Tory, the Tories are only losing 2 seats to the SNP and the LDs are only gaining 3 Tory seats.
Plus polling shows Trump is far more popular with Leave voters than Remain voters anyway and while 73% of Leave voters back Boris now the Tories are already 3rd with Remainers anyway
You Gov MRP is based on a bigger lead than polls are showing now.
I’m enjoying chaos with Mick Cash in SWR this morning. I have three weeks of it now. It’s a militant union just like the NUM and needs to be Thatcherised, quite frankly.
In 2019. Why don't we have driverless trains already? That surely has to be the solution.
We do where a digital railway has already been rolled out, with DOO CCTV on all the platforms and new rolling stock. Places like London Overground, C2C and Thameslink. And, also, Crossrail when it opens. The RMT are fighting a strong rearguard action to halt its spread, and hopefully reverse it, because they want to keep control of the train doors.
Good to hear the technology is there, hope there are more driverless trains running soon.
The RMT have always presented driver only operation as a passenger safety issue when the reality is that when a guard no longer has any responsibility for the start and stop of the train they drop down the pay scale.
Incidentally, one striking result in that Survation poll was the proportion who think immigration is important in deciding their vote. TWO per cent. Mysteriously, people have just stopped worrying about it.
It's not really that mysterious Nick. The referendum acted as a pressure valve. Now that people think democratic control over immigration will be restored, it's slipped way down the list of voter concerns. If Brexit is arrested and there's another big round of immigration from Southern Europe upon the next Eurozone crisis, expect it to return as a major issue again.
Like you I think that the Brexit result has contributed to lancing the boil. But the decline in growth (not actually a decline) of European immigration has been accompanied by a surge in non-European immigration. Unlike some I don't think most concern about immigration is all about racism, but it's even less about specific prejudice against, say, Poles, so why people could feel that replacing Poles with people from another country makes a difference does seem to me odd. My tenative conclusion is that it's really driven mainly by news headlines. There hasn't been much about waves of immigration lately, so it's not front of mind any more. If four Bulgarian nurses are replaced by four Indian nurses, people don't really notice or care very much - they go by the headlines on the national picture.
I don't have the data but I rather suspect it's along the lines that non-EU immigration is almost entirely high skilled, which few people have a problem with. Meanwhile a good chunk of EU immigration since 2004 has been low skilled and primarily served to depress wages for C2/D/E, especially around the years from 2008 to 2014 ish. Take note that following 2016 And All That, we have not only seen a slowing of EU immigration but the return of real wage growth in the UK. As far as public services go, it's more relevant how the numbers are relative to government forecasts, rather than the numbers themselves. This is an inherent flaw in the EU free movement principle, when there is such profound economic divergence between North and South. It makes it nigh impossible to make long term decisions on capital investment and training.
Incidentally, one striking result in that Survation poll was the proportion who think immigration is important in deciding their vote. TWO per cent. Mysteriously, people have just stopped worrying about it.
It's not really that mysterious Nick. The referendum acted as a pressure valve. Now that people think democratic control over immigration will be restored, it's slipped way down the list of voter concerns. If Brexit is arrested and there's another big round of immigration from Southern Europe upon the next Eurozone crisis, expect it to return as a major issue again.
Like you I think that the Brexit result has contributed to lancing the boil. But the decline in growth (not actually a decline) of European immigration has been accompanied by a surge in non-European immigration. Unlike some I don't think most concern about immigration is all about racism, but it's even less about specific prejudice against, say, Poles, so why people could feel that replacing Poles with people from another country makes a difference does seem to me odd.
My tenative conclusion is that it's really driven mainly by news headlines. There hasn't been much about waves of immigration lately, so it's not front of mind any more. If four Bulgarian nurses are replaced by four Indian nurses, people don't really notice or care very much - they go by the headlines on the national picture.
Net migration was over 200, 000 , if you think people don't notice this then you are wrong.
I have thought for a while that this election is almost an existential threat for whichever of the main parties loses.
If Boris wins and Brexit is done then Labour are likely to have some severe internal bloodletting whilst they decide the direction they are going to travel. I find it hard to see how they won't split.
The Tories wouldn't be in a much better position either if they lost.
We've been predicting a possible Labour split for some time and it hasn't happened. Tribal loyalty (and the desire to hold on to their jobs) keeps trumping the divisions for almost the whole PLP. All those who were going to give up on Labour arguably already have.
The Tories, on the other hand, are in mortal danger if they lose power, for they are not loved and really have only one purpose in our political system: to act as a device for people who fear Labour to lock them out of power. If the Tories can't even beat a candidate for high office as obviously unsuitable as Jeremy Corbyn, so this argument goes, then what use are they?
Rubbish. The Tories are a conservative pro Brexit Party, their purpose is not some sort of Heathite, pro EU centrism solely to keep Labour out now, most Tory voters are ideological now, the Heathites have gone LD and in the unlikely event Corbyn won a new leader like Priti Patel would revive the Tories under a new Thatcherite agenda to attack the disaster that would be a Corbyn government.
If Labour lose and pick another hard left leader and Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster and succeeds Swinson as LD leader he could appeal to many BME or moderate Labour voters as an ex Labour MP
.. in fact it was 258000 where are the homes these people are going to. British families will be put down the council list because of it. that's why immigration is an issue.
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Let's not spin in - it's disgusting, pure and simple. The hard right are on the march here in the UK. If you're of foreign descent, be afraid, be very afraid.
I'm not spinning, I said it was crappy, nor do I agree with the government on such matters. But there is a space for someone to reasonably argue the point even though the victims likely would not agree.
One of the mysteries of this campaign is how little time has been spent on the economy. I might be biased as I work in business but this seems to me as the key to the future. Social care and nhs depend a lot more on a strong economy than the political party in charge. To me neither major party has a good plan for the economy. In the meantime business has made up its mind and continues to disinvest from the UK.
I think it's too big and complicated for most of us to be willing to think about it, and the parties follow suit. We are probably fecked when the next recession hits.
It's also going very well, if sluggish. Full employment, flat inflation, low interest rates, above inflation pay increases, dropping fuel prices at the pump and the household meter.
By the way, this is the reason they're changing tack and going hard into their own Labour Leave heartlands. They think they've found the golden ticket.
They're hammering the message to leavers that Johnson's deal is crap (it really is) and that they can get an improved one 'within six moths' that will protect trade and jobs. Then they offer that for a final say.
To leaver ears that is remain.
Labour are taking voters for fools if they think they will be able to sell that in the Mids/NW/NE.
This comes back to a fundamental point: that Labour Leavers are not 'true Brexiteers.' They have never 'believed' in it ideologically like the Far Right. What they care about, as evidenced time and again in all opinion polling, is other issues which matter to them. This is why the Labour stance is now getting traction and why in the recent polling they have seen a 5% uplift in Labour Leave voters returning to Labour. Because their messags is that Johnson's deal will threatent their jobs, their livelihoods and the NHS.
It's a powerful message and it's working.
Labour are coming home. They always do.
Throw into that the brilliantly targetted LibDem work in key constituencies, masked in the national opinion polling, as well as the SNP gains in Scotland, and I am pretty sure now that we're looking at another hung parliament.
Oh and right on cue we have Donald Trump landing in Britain.
No we aren't, as Yougov MRP showed about 44 Labour mainly Leave seats are going Tory, the Tories are only losing 2 seats to the SNP and the LDs are only gaining 3 Tory seats.
Plus polling shows Trump is far more popular with Leave voters than Remain voters anyway and while 73% of Leave voters back Boris now the Tories are already 3rd with Remainers anyway
You Gov MRP is based on a bigger lead than polls are showing now.
Mind the gap
No. It's not "based on" a bigger lead. It is a different model, and it projects a bigger lead. And last time the lead it projected remained stable while the lead in conventional polls was decreasing.
That's why I would really like to see an update of the MRP projection, to see whether this time it has stayed stable, or whether the lead it projects has changed.
By the way, this is the reason they're changing tack and going hard into their own Labour Leave heartlands. They think they've found the golden ticket.
They're hammering the message to leavers that Johnson's deal is crap (it really is) and that they can get an improved one 'within six moths' that will protect trade and jobs. Then they offer that for a final say.
To leaver ears that is remain.
Labour are taking voters for fools if they think they will be able to sell that in the Mids/NW/NE.
This comes back to a fundamental point: that Labour Leavers are not 'true Brexiteers.' They have never 'believed' in it ideologically like the Far Right. What they care about, as evidenced time and again in all opinion polling, is other issues which matter to them. This is why the Labour stance is now getting traction and why in the recent polling they have seen a 5% uplift in Labour Leave voters returning to Labour. Because their messags is that Johnson's deal will threatent their jobs, their livelihoods and the NHS.
It's a powerful message and it's working.
Labour are coming home. They always do.
Throw into that the brilliantly targetted LibDem work in key constituencies, masked in the national opinion polling, as well as the SNP gains in Scotland, and I am pretty sure now that we're looking at another hung parliament.
Oh and right on cue we have Donald Trump landing in Britain.
No we aren't, as Yougov MRP showed about 44 Labour mainly Leave seats are going Tory, the Tories are only losing 2 seats to the SNP and the LDs are only gaining 3 Tory seats.
Plus polling shows Trump is far more popular with Leave voters than Remain voters anyway and while 73% of Leave voters back Boris now the Tories are already 3rd with Remainers anyway
You Gov MRP is based on a bigger lead than polls are showing now.
Mind the gap
Survation had the Tories 9% ahead last night, Yougov MRP had the Tories 11% ahead, little change
I’m enjoying chaos with Mick Cash in SWR this morning.
I have three weeks of it now.
It’s a militant union just like the NUM and needs to be Thatcherised, quite frankly.
In 2019. Why don't we have driverless trains already? That surely has to be the solution.
We do where a digital railway has already been rolled out, with DOO CCTV on all the platforms and new rolling stock. Places like London Overground, C2C and Thameslink. And, also, Crossrail when it opens.
The RMT are fighting a strong rearguard action to halt its spread, and hopefully reverse it, because they want to keep control of the train doors.
If the Tories win a healthy majority they should support making all trains driverless. Or would that require the Mayor's support.
This isn't an argument about drivers - it's about guards and who controls the button to restart the train at a station.
It's not about drivers yet - we are a long way from the time when 30+ miles of track can be fully protected from people wandering onto the track.
I dont think we are. The technology that could spot foreign objects on the railway tracks from a distance at least as good as a human will be already well proven. At full speed can a train driver stop in the required time to avoid hitting someone?
We already have light rail services totally automatic.. But we arent talking about light rail of course...
One of the mysteries of this campaign is how little time has been spent on the economy. I might be biased as I work in business but this seems to me as the key to the future. Social care and nhs depend a lot more on a strong economy than the political party in charge. To me neither major party has a good plan for the economy. In the meantime business has made up its mind and continues to disinvest from the UK.
I think it's too big and complicated for most of us to be willing to think about it, and the parties follow suit. We are probably fecked when the next recession hits.
It's also going very well, if sluggish. Full employment, flat inflation, low interest rates, above inflation pay increases, dropping fuel prices at the pump and the household meter.
Things are pretty good out there.
Unless you have had your benefits frozen.
Or you have to commute with above inflation fare rises
Or you have to wait longer than ever for the NHS
Or cant get to see a GP
Or have no hope of getting a deposit for a house purchase so you have to pay your landlord above inflation rent increase.
As you say things are pretty good out there for some and shit and getting shittier for others
One of the mysteries of this campaign is how little time has been spent on the economy. I might be biased as I work in business but this seems to me as the key to the future. Social care and nhs depend a lot more on a strong economy than the political party in charge. To me neither major party has a good plan for the economy. In the meantime business has made up its mind and continues to disinvest from the UK.
I think it's too big and complicated for most of us to be willing to think about it, and the parties follow suit. We are probably fecked when the next recession hits.
Upon the next recession, whoever is in power will have little choice but to open the fiscal taps. The economic divide is now primarily about whether you want to turn on the Hot tap or the Cold tap. Tax cuts/infrastructure or nationalisations/transfer payments. "Jo Swinson's Lib Dems" look quite quaint and old fashioned with their fiscal hawks persona (even if this is not the case in reality). Johnson's "40 new hospitals" pledge keeps getting mocked by media lightweights like Marr, because it's "only a business plan Boris, not a hospital". But actually it's terrific news that the incumbent government (if he does indeed win) is putting in place the ground work now so that the fiscal blitz when it comes, it as efficiently directed as possible. Far better this than panicked splurges on VAT cuts and giveaways to buy new VWs like Mandy did in 2010. Obvious other things you'll see upon a recession in this parliament are a diesel-to-EV scrappage scheme and if Boris wins, increases to the higher rate tax threshold.
One of the mysteries of this campaign is how little time has been spent on the economy. I might be biased as I work in business but this seems to me as the key to the future. Social care and nhs depend a lot more on a strong economy than the political party in charge. To me neither major party has a good plan for the economy. In the meantime business has made up its mind and continues to disinvest from the UK.
I think it's too big and complicated for most of us to be willing to think about it, and the parties follow suit. We are probably fecked when the next recession hits.
It's also going very well, if sluggish. Full employment, flat inflation, low interest rates, above inflation pay increases, dropping fuel prices at the pump and the household meter.
Things are pretty good out there.
Unless you have had your benefits frozen.
Or you have to commute with above inflation fare rises
Or you have to wait longer than ever for the NHS
Or cant get to see a GP
Or have no hope of getting a deposit for a house purchase so you have to pay your landlord above inflation rent increase.
As you say things are pretty good out there for some and shit and getting shittier for others
"above inflation fare rises" You mean *literally* actual inflationary rise!
Things are really good out there, really good. That doesnt mean there arent people who are struggling.
I wouldnt say we've never had it so good, but we've very rarely had it much better.
The hard right is creating additional distress for bereaved families currently ... ttps://twitter.com/butwhatifitsall/status/1201288614329692161?s=21
I believe Yvette Cooper was the first person to politicise this but also there were numerous victims. Just because one of them has a certain political ideology it doesn’t mean that the government shouldn’t be taking measures to reassure and protect the public.
Personally although I strongly dislike any party playing hardball with this stuff it has become standard. In 2017 we all remember the May grandstanding after the terror attacks and Labour using it as a tool to talk about police cuts. Unfortunately it appears to be the way of the world now.
Sadly you’re right. It’s a ‘prisoners’ dilemma’ issue though, better for everyone if no-one goes near it, but seemingly advantageous to one party that does so alone.
Incidentally, one striking result in that Survation poll was the proportion who think immigration is important in deciding their vote. TWO per cent. Mysteriously, people have just stopped worrying about it.
It's not really that mysterious Nick. The referendum acted as a pressure valve. Now that people think democratic control over immigration will be restored, it's slipped way down the list of voter concerns. If Brexit is arrested and there's another big round of immigration from Southern Europe upon the next Eurozone crisis, expect it to return as a major issue again.
Like you I think that the Brexit result has contributed to lancing the boil. But the decline in growth (not actually a decline) of European immigration has been accompanied by a surge in non-European immigration. Unlike some I don't think most concern about immigration is all about racism, but it's even less about specific prejudice against, say, Poles, so why people could feel that replacing Poles with people from another country makes a difference does seem to me odd. My tenative conclusion is that it's really driven mainly by news headlines. There hasn't been much about waves of immigration lately, so it's not front of mind any more. If four Bulgarian nurses are replaced by four Indian nurses, people don't really notice or care very much - they go by the headlines on the national picture.
I don't have the data but I rather suspect it's along the lines that non-EU immigration is almost entirely high skilled, which few people have a problem with. Meanwhile a good chunk of EU immigration since 2004 has been low skilled and primarily served to depress wages for C2/D/E, especially around the years from 2008 to 2014 ish. Take note that following 2016 And All That, we have not only seen a slowing of EU immigration but the return of real wage growth in the UK. As far as public services go, it's more relevant how the numbers are relative to government forecasts, rather than the numbers themselves. This is an inherent flaw in the EU free movement principle, when there is such profound economic divergence between North and South. It makes it nigh impossible to make long term decisions on capital investment and training.
Who will now take on the important economical role carried out by eastern european big issue sellers?
Off topic, this is a strange one: Labour pledges to cut rail fares by a third https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50621621 Doesn't it rather undermine Labour's claims that renationalised industries would accrue profits to the taxpayer? Not, it has to be said, that I have ever heard them make that claim for railways.
Yay, more free stuff! How many hundreds of billions are we up to now, and how few people are deemed rich enough to simply roll over and pay all this extra money? Oh, and a big dead cat to take focus away from the fact that thousands of railwaymen are on strike again today.
This isn’t a dead cat (much abused term)
It’s a very clever defensive move though - some serious tacticians on Labour’s team
Q. Will you condemn the strike Mr Corbyn? A. I agree there are lots of problems with the privatised railways. That’s why we have said we will end privatisation. Safety, of course, comes first which is what the unions are arguing for. But it also cost far too much which is why we have pledged...
This comes back to a fundamental point: that Labour Leavers are not 'true Brexiteers.' They have never 'believed' in it ideologically like the Far Right.
Pretty offensive to claim that only the 'Far Right' believe in Brexit.
She’s a paid troll It’s not worth your time
She isn't Charles. Bot-calling and closing your mind to a genuine person is one of the many signs that this country is in trouble.
When the dust settles on this election I predict that 95% of people, you included, will come to see the visceral damage caused by the shenanigans of Johnson and Cummings.
LOL, Charles is one of the establishment elite, what makes you think he will care a jot.
We’re different. Much closer to the Pakenhams than you might think
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Not permitting the media to use a public domain photo on their front page?
Net migration was over 200, 000 , if you think people don't notice this then you are wrong.
Well, to go back to my original post, currently only 2% think it's important, according to Survation. It used to be more like 25%. As you say, net migration hasn't gone away (it's just becoming less European). I think it's driven by the presence or absence of media headlines. What is your explanation for the drop in interest?
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Not permitting the media to use a public domain photo on their front page?
The news is the news. I'm sorry this might sound harsh, but the family of a loved one doesn't own the memory or everything concerning that person. The personal is political in this case.
I’m enjoying chaos with Mick Cash in SWR this morning.
I have three weeks of it now.
It’s a militant union just like the NUM and needs to be Thatcherised, quite frankly.
In 2019. Why don't we have driverless trains already? That surely has to be the solution.
We do where a digital railway has already been rolled out, with DOO CCTV on all the platforms and new rolling stock. Places like London Overground, C2C and Thameslink. And, also, Crossrail when it opens.
The RMT are fighting a strong rearguard action to halt its spread, and hopefully reverse it, because they want to keep control of the train doors.
If the Tories win a healthy majority they should support making all trains driverless. Or would that require the Mayor's support.
This isn't an argument about drivers - it's about guards and who controls the button to restart the train at a station.
It's not about drivers yet - we are a long way from the time when 30+ miles of track can be fully protected from people wandering onto the track.
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Not permitting the media to use a public domain photo on their front page?
I wonder what their reaction would be if the perpetrator had been a different type of extremist?
Net migration was over 200, 000 , if you think people don't notice this then you are wrong.
Well, to go back to my original post, currently only 2% think it's important, according to Survation. It used to be more like 25%. As you say, net migration hasn't gone away (it's just becoming less European). I think it's driven by the presence or absence of media headlines. What is your explanation for the drop in interest?
Is because they are not being prompted about a list of issues to look at,. Polls can give you any answer you want. Ask do you think 258000 immigration is an issue this yr next yr every year and I bet it would be a big issue Ask Sir Humphrey
I’m enjoying chaos with Mick Cash in SWR this morning. I have three weeks of it now. It’s a militant union just like the NUM and needs to be Thatcherised, quite frankly.
In 2019. Why don't we have driverless trains already? That surely has to be the solution.
We do where a digital railway has already been rolled out, with DOO CCTV on all the platforms and new rolling stock. Places like London Overground, C2C and Thameslink. And, also, Crossrail when it opens. The RMT are fighting a strong rearguard action to halt its spread, and hopefully reverse it, because they want to keep control of the train doors.
Good to hear the technology is there, hope there are more driverless trains running soon.
The RMT have always presented driver only operation as a passenger safety issue when the reality is that when a guard no longer has any responsibility for the start and stop of the train they drop down the pay scale.
SWR were actually promising rostering a guard on every train. However, they are not promising to halt the dispatch of trains - in the event of a perturbed service - if a guard is unavailable and the train can be safely dispatched by just the driver. It will allow them to increase reliability when things go a bit pear-shaped and was intrinsic to their bid for the franchise.
That’s what it’s about, immediately.
Of course, in the longer term, the RMT are worried that the “customer services manager” won’t be a ‘railway person’ with a safety-critical role (in other words, not an RMT member) so they view this as the thin-end of the wedge.
More broadly, it’s a good example of how economies can slow down and become antiquated over many years of mass public ownership and unionisation. New technologies are seen as a threat to them and their members so the unions defend antiquated ways of working through aggressive striking.
That leads to lower productivity and output across the economy as a whole because you end up getting unnecessary over-employment and a less reliable service that misallocates resources and depresses productivity gains in the economy as a whole.
One of the mysteries of this campaign is how little time has been spent on the economy. I might be biased as I work in business but this seems to me as the key to the future. Social care and nhs depend a lot more on a strong economy than the political party in charge. To me neither major party has a good plan for the economy. In the meantime business has made up its mind and continues to disinvest from the UK.
The economy doesn't come up as an issue when it's going well. Which it is.
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Not permitting the media to use a public domain photo on their front page?
The news is the news. I'm sorry this might sound harsh, but the family of a loved one doesn't own the memory or everything concerning that person. The personal is political in this case.
My heart goes out to him and it just so happens he is political.
He was reported in the media over the weekend as being left-leaning and politically engaged, and criticised austerity since 2010 and police cuts for this instead.
Sad it’s come to this, and perhaps it’s just inevitable when an election is only 10 days away. It’s just too tempting for all sides to exploit.
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Not permitting the media to use a public domain photo on their front page?
One of the mysteries of this campaign is how little time has been spent on the economy. I might be biased as I work in business but this seems to me as the key to the future. Social care and nhs depend a lot more on a strong economy than the political party in charge. To me neither major party has a good plan for the economy. In the meantime business has made up its mind and continues to disinvest from the UK.
The economy doesn't come up as an issue when it's going well. Which it is.
Indeed. It's like "unemployment" - ne'er a peep about it these days from Labour.
The report this morning that the Polish chef who wielded the narwhal tusk at the terrorist suffered severe knife injuries to his arm to the point he could not feel it but continued the fight
Just extraordinary courage and he deserves the highest civilian award from HMQ
One of the mysteries of this campaign is how little time has been spent on the economy. I might be biased as I work in business but this seems to me as the key to the future. Social care and nhs depend a lot more on a strong economy than the political party in charge. To me neither major party has a good plan for the economy. In the meantime business has made up its mind and continues to disinvest from the UK.
The economy doesn't come up as an issue when it's going well. Which it is.
I wouldn't say its going well as I can definitely see an recession on the horizon. Boris timed the election exceptionally well.
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Not permitting the media to use a public domain photo on their front page?
Do you understand how Copyright works? Just because a photo is on Facebook doesn't mean you or others have the legal right to use it.
Unless of cause the original poster signed usage rights away without realising it (as was one of the tricks of Cambridge Analytics).
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Not permitting the media to use a public domain photo on their front page?
The news is the news. I'm sorry this might sound harsh, but the family of a loved one doesn't own the memory or everything concerning that person. The personal is political in this case.
Not really news though is it. They're portraying Boris as an avenging angel to inflame the passions of the hordes.
Labour's bribing season continues by raiding the roads budget to pay upto £1,000 to commuters from the stock belts of the south at the disadvantage of most living outside the M25 who do not use trains
Not only widely condemned across the political divide but also the train companies threatening to withdraw investment in the railways
I can only assume labour's internal polling is horrific and even in the London area. Indeed the guardian is reporting the red wall in the midlands and the north is looking shaky
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Not permitting the media to use a public domain photo on their front page?
I wonder what their reaction would be if the perpetrator had been a different type of extremist?
Indeed. Compare and contrast with Jo Cox. I can't imagine what the parents are going through. They have lost children who they can be immensely proud of. But by seeming to come out against one side during an election campaign, they themselves have made it a political issue. They might perhaps have been better advised to say nothing, at least until after the funerals. Meanwhile, there are parents of children who want to know that everything possible is being done to protect them from similar risk. The Government is expected to provide that assurance - and to face criticism if those assurances fail to convince.
The report this morning that the Polish chef who wielded the narwhal tusk at the terrorist suffered severe knife injuries to his arm to the point he could not feel it but continued the fight
Just extraordinary courage and he deserves the highest civilian award from HMQ
Absolutely- and I hope the Fishmongers present him with the tusk as well
The government and press and public are not obliged to share the values of the victims of tragedy or their families. However, using their images when it was known this was the view of at least one of the families is pretty crappy and could become a story on it's own right.
Not permitting the media to use a public domain photo on their front page?
Do you understand how Copyright works? Just because a photo is on Facebook doesn't mean you or others have the legal right to use it.
Unless of cause the original poster signed usage rights away without realising it (as was one of the tricks of Cambridge Analytics).
Just a quick Q : I applied for my postal vote and ca. 2 weeks ago got the confirmation that I would be getting one. Should the actual vote have arrived?
I'm in Brum Ladywood, so imagine "I've" already voted Labour, tbh.
The report this morning that the Polish chef who wielded the narwhal tusk at the terrorist suffered severe knife injuries to his arm to the point he could not feel it but continued the fight
Just extraordinary courage and he deserves the highest civilian award from HMQ
Probably be deported because he fails to complete his settled status registration properly.
The report this morning that the Polish chef who wielded the narwhal tusk at the terrorist suffered severe knife injuries to his arm to the point he could not feel it but continued the fight
Just extraordinary courage and he deserves the highest civilian award from HMQ
Probably be deported because he fails to complete his settled status registration properly.
Labour's bribing season continues by raiding the roads budget to pay upto £1,000 to commuters from the stock belts of the south at the disadvantage of most living outside the M25 who do not use trains
Not only widely condemned across the political divide but also the train companies threatening to withdraw investment in the railways
I can only assume labour's internal polling is horrific and even in the London area. Indeed the guardian is reporting the red wall in the midlands and the north is looking shaky
Any train commuters in the North deserve the reduction due to the crap service they've got for years.
Equally £300 to get down to London for a 10am meeting is taking the pee when the train is usually half empty.
Labour have plundered the Green vote. But that well is now dry.....
Who are the 3% of Leavers voting for the LDs?
People who support a soft and gradualist leave (EFTA for example), won't vote for Corbyn in any circumstances because he supports our enemies, prefer Remain to the Tory offer, think that Jo Swinson is the only party leader not inclined to extremes and that she is a decent person and don't want to vote for 'none of the above'. 3% looks high but they do exist.
Labour's bribing season continues by raiding the roads budget to pay upto £1,000 to commuters from the stock belts of the south at the disadvantage of most living outside the M25 who do not use trains
Not only widely condemned across the political divide but also the train companies threatening to withdraw investment in the railways
I can only assume labour's internal polling is horrific and even in the London area. Indeed the guardian is reporting the red wall in the midlands and the north is looking shaky
Any train commuters in the North deserve the reduction due to the crap service they've got for years.
Equally £300 to get down to London for a 10am meeting is taking the pee when the train is usually half empty.
One of the mysteries of this campaign is how little time has been spent on the economy. I might be biased as I work in business but this seems to me as the key to the future. Social care and nhs depend a lot more on a strong economy than the political party in charge. To me neither major party has a good plan for the economy. In the meantime business has made up its mind and continues to disinvest from the UK.
I think it's too big and complicated for most of us to be willing to think about it, and the parties follow suit. We are probably fecked when the next recession hits.
It's also going very well, if sluggish. Full employment, flat inflation, low interest rates, above inflation pay increases, dropping fuel prices at the pump and the household meter.
Things are pretty good out there.
Unless you have had your benefits frozen.
Or you have to commute with above inflation fare rises
Or you have to wait longer than ever for the NHS
Or cant get to see a GP
Or have no hope of getting a deposit for a house purchase so you have to pay your landlord above inflation rent increase.
As you say things are pretty good out there for some and shit and getting shittier for others
"above inflation fare rises" You mean *literally* actual inflationary rise!
Things are really good out there, really good. That doesnt mean there arent people who are struggling.
I wouldnt say we've never had it so good, but we've very rarely had it much better.
RPI for rail not CPI which is the main inflation measure
You just know that petrol and diesel duties will get hammered "to encourage commuters onto our wonderful spacious, fragrant, timely (unionised) services...."
The report this morning that the Polish chef who wielded the narwhal tusk at the terrorist suffered severe knife injuries to his arm to the point he could not feel it but continued the fight
Just extraordinary courage and he deserves the highest civilian award from HMQ
Probably be deported because he fails to complete his settled status registration properly.
That is uncalled for
It’s going to happen to quite a few people and is a real risk
The report this morning that the Polish chef who wielded the narwhal tusk at the terrorist suffered severe knife injuries to his arm to the point he could not feel it but continued the fight
Just extraordinary courage and he deserves the highest civilian award from HMQ
Probably be deported because he fails to complete his settled status registration properly.
That is uncalled for
It’s going to happen to quite a few people and is a real risk
I hope not but your comment was not in the spirit of my post
Just a quick Q : I applied for my postal vote and ca. 2 weeks ago got the confirmation that I would be getting one. Should the actual vote have arrived?
I'm in Brum Ladywood, so imagine "I've" already voted Labour, tbh.
Mine was quite late when I applied near the deadline for the Euro elections (realised I was going to be out of the country on the day, had voted in person before). Others I knew locally with postal votes got theirs some time before, so can be a delay if you've just applied. Might want to query it with the local council (I did for Euros, but my ballot arrived, next day, before their reply - a couple of days later - that it had been sent out).
The report this morning that the Polish chef who wielded the narwhal tusk at the terrorist suffered severe knife injuries to his arm to the point he could not feel it but continued the fight
Just extraordinary courage and he deserves the highest civilian award from HMQ
Probably be deported because he fails to complete his settled status registration properly.
That is uncalled for
It’s going to happen to quite a few people and is a real risk
I thought there had only been a handful of cases rejected?
Labour's bribing season continues by raiding the roads budget to pay upto £1,000 to commuters from the stock belts of the south at the disadvantage of most living outside the M25 who do not use trains
Not only widely condemned across the political divide but also the train companies threatening to withdraw investment in the railways
I can only assume labour's internal polling is horrific and even in the London area. Indeed the guardian is reporting the red wall in the midlands and the north is looking shaky
Any train commuters in the North deserve the reduction due to the crap service they've got for years.
Equally £300 to get down to London for a 10am meeting is taking the pee when the train is usually half empty.
Yet we're told that we need £100bn HS2 because of capacity shortages.
Comments
Lab up one seat, LD down one seat to 26.
Shares Con/Lab/LD 42.5/31.8/13.7 a 10.7% Tory lead.
Because I use EMA the average lags any abrupt step change. If, for instance, you add 2% to Lab and subtract 2% from LD giving a Tory lead of 9.7% then the Tory notional majority disappears. Tory 325 seats.
The RMT are fighting a strong rearguard action to halt its spread, and hopefully reverse it, because they want to keep control of the train doors.
This is the RMT’s doing.
Don’t be in any doubt about that.
The failing of SWR (first group/MTR) was to undercut stagecoach on the franchise bid by cutting spare rolling stock and staff to the bone to save operating costs, which has made peturbed/degraded service recovery absolutely shocking.
Different issue.
It's not about drivers yet - we are a long way from the time when 30+ miles of track can be fully protected from people wandering onto the track.
Yes, Labour loses a vote but it only does 50% of the harm switching to the Tory candidate does.
Britons will pay €7 to travel to EU countries
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46564884
The hard right are on the march here in the UK. If you're of foreign descent, be afraid, be very afraid.
My tenative conclusion is that it's really driven mainly by news headlines. There hasn't been much about waves of immigration lately, so it's not front of mind any more. If four Bulgarian nurses are replaced by four Indian nurses, people don't really notice or care very much - they go by the headlines on the national picture.
Plus polling shows Trump is far more popular with Leave voters than Remain voters anyway and while 73% of Leave voters back Boris now the Tories are already 3rd with Remainers anyway
If Labour lose and pick another hard left leader and Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster and succeeds Swinson as LD leader he could appeal to many BME or moderate Labour voters as an ex Labour MP
Unless the family said please don't use images of our children who were killed, as I am also not sure the Daily Mail / Express have done anything out of the ordinary when it comes to placing a picture of them....it happens every time a tradegy occurs.
Mind the gap
As far as public services go, it's more relevant how the numbers are relative to government forecasts, rather than the numbers themselves. This is an inherent flaw in the EU free movement principle, when there is such profound economic divergence between North and South. It makes it nigh impossible to make long term decisions on capital investment and training.
Things are pretty good out there.
That's why I would really like to see an update of the MRP projection, to see whether this time it has stayed stable, or whether the lead it projects has changed.
We already have light rail services totally automatic.. But we arent talking about light rail of course...
Or you have to commute with above inflation fare rises
Or you have to wait longer than ever for the NHS
Or cant get to see a GP
Or have no hope of getting a deposit for a house purchase so you have to pay your landlord above inflation rent increase.
As you say things are pretty good out there for some and shit and getting shittier for others
Johnson's "40 new hospitals" pledge keeps getting mocked by media lightweights like Marr, because it's "only a business plan Boris, not a hospital". But actually it's terrific news that the incumbent government (if he does indeed win) is putting in place the ground work now so that the fiscal blitz when it comes, it as efficiently directed as possible. Far better this than panicked splurges on VAT cuts and giveaways to buy new VWs like Mandy did in 2010.
Obvious other things you'll see upon a recession in this parliament are a diesel-to-EV scrappage scheme and if Boris wins, increases to the higher rate tax threshold.
You mean *literally* actual inflationary rise!
Things are really good out there, really good. That doesnt mean there arent people who are struggling.
I wouldnt say we've never had it so good, but we've very rarely had it much better.
It’s a very clever defensive move though - some serious tacticians on Labour’s team
Q. Will you condemn the strike Mr Corbyn?
A. I agree there are lots of problems with the privatised railways. That’s why we have said we will end privatisation. Safety, of course, comes first which is what the unions are arguing for. But it also cost far too much which is why we have pledged...
Ask Sir Humphrey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
SWR were actually promising rostering a guard on every train. However, they are not promising to halt the dispatch of trains - in the event of a perturbed service - if a guard is unavailable and the train can be safely dispatched by just the driver. It will allow them to increase reliability when things go a bit pear-shaped and was intrinsic to their bid for the franchise.
That’s what it’s about, immediately.
Of course, in the longer term, the RMT are worried that the “customer services manager” won’t be a ‘railway person’ with a safety-critical role (in other words, not an RMT member) so they view this as the thin-end of the wedge.
More broadly, it’s a good example of how economies can slow down and become antiquated over many years of mass public ownership and unionisation. New technologies are seen as a threat to them and their members so the unions defend antiquated ways of working through aggressive striking.
That leads to lower productivity and output across the economy as a whole because you end up getting unnecessary over-employment and a less reliable service that misallocates resources and depresses productivity gains in the economy as a whole.
He was reported in the media over the weekend as being left-leaning and politically engaged, and criticised austerity since 2010 and police cuts for this instead.
Sad it’s come to this, and perhaps it’s just inevitable when an election is only 10 days away. It’s just too tempting for all sides to exploit.
Just extraordinary courage and he deserves the highest civilian award from HMQ
Unless of cause the original poster signed usage rights away without realising it (as was one of the tricks of Cambridge Analytics).
Not only widely condemned across the political divide but also the train companies threatening to withdraw investment in the railways
I can only assume labour's internal polling is horrific and even in the London area. Indeed the guardian is reporting the red wall in the midlands and the north is looking shaky
I can't imagine what the parents are going through. They have lost children who they can be immensely proud of. But by seeming to come out against one side during an election campaign, they themselves have made it a political issue. They might perhaps have been better advised to say nothing, at least until after the funerals.
Meanwhile, there are parents of children who want to know that everything possible is being done to protect them from similar risk. The Government is expected to provide that assurance - and to face criticism if those assurances fail to convince.
Con 42.6%
Lab 32.9%
LD 13.1%
BXP 3.5%
SNP 3.5%
GRN 3.0%
oth 1.6%
Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/1201298365235023876
I'm in Brum Ladywood, so imagine "I've" already voted Labour, tbh.
Equally £300 to get down to London for a 10am meeting is taking the pee when the train is usually half empty.
Might want to query it with the local council (I did for Euros, but my ballot arrived, next day, before their reply - a couple of days later - that it had been sent out).