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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Brexit Divisions

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    Noticed SkyBet has removed a couple of constituencies from its betting options. Both Scottish. Moray (Con/SNP marginal) and Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Ian Blackford's seat targeted by LibDems). Wonder why. Is it normal to withdraw betting opportunities (rather than just adjust the odds)?

    They have no idea what they're doing at Skybet on constituencies, some of the favourites have been far too long in particular.
  • @Big_G_NorthWales there’s plenty of Teslas driving around the NE and more so every year. I see one at least a few times a week.

    I am in favour of electric cars but the issues on affordability and range are immense

    In order to go fully electric where does the extra power capacity come from, how do we replace the 28 billion fuel tax we currently receive, and how do we scrap all the petrol and diesel cars owned across the nation, many of which will still be roadworthy in 15 years time
    Fuel tax will be a problem but power generation will not be. We’re rapidly closing in on more then 50% renewable. Add in a solid 20% nuclear and improved battery storage, and we will only need a smallish amount of gas to manage demand. In terms of replacing the stock of cars, I’d need to look at stats, but I doubt too many people have a car older than 15 years old. So 15-20 years from the sale of the last petrol car (hastened as petrol stations close or convert to electric) you’ll see change over. Petrol cars will be limited to classics only in 30 years.
    I agree largely with your post but am doubtful on power generation considering the massive increase in demand that will follow all vehicles being electric
    That will be the least of our issues, especially as we move to a smart electric grid we can encourage demand to be done at off-peak times.
    Bear in mind that wind turbines still generate electricity overnight when demand is a lot lower, so while not everyone will be able to plug their car in at home those who can should be able to recharge their vehicles at night at offpeak times. It would be cheaper for them to do so and would smooth out our electricity demand to better match production. I imagine that in the future if you plug your car in at home when you get home your car unless its battery is low will automatically wait until off peak rates before it recharges [I have no idea if that's already possible].
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    I note after my Betting Post re Bolsover last week the odds against on Skinner now gone.

    Both Parties available now at Evs.

    Take your pick

    I`m on Tories, but may have this wrong.
  • He runs a so-called city half the size of a London Borough. If it weren't for The Donald having had no experience at all, Mayor Pete would have been laughed out of town.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    kinabalu said:

    What about people who drive? Which is the vast, vast, vast majority of workers in the North.

    There is a policy there too. Electric cars. Longer term, it's important to realize that the era of the private car is drawing to an end. It won't be long until we look back and chuckle at this notion that the best way to move around the place is in individual lumps of metal on rubbered wheels, which spend almost all of their time stationery for one reason or another.
    It will be decades away
    Company car tax on full EVs from April 0%. Will drive the change.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Why do Londoners set off for work so late? I get to work/uni with at least 45 minutes to spare so if the bus is late or there is traffic, it does not matter...

    45 mins to spare, don't you have better things to do with your time other than sit in the office working for free?
    I go to a cafe nearby and relax with a double espresso like the liberal, metropolitan elite scum that I am.
    Not a cortado? Clearly not a proper liberal...
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Why do Londoners set off for work so late? I get to work/uni with at least 45 minutes to spare so if the bus is late or there is traffic, it does not matter...

    45 mins to spare, don't you have better things to do with your time other than sit in the office working for free?
    I go to a cafe nearby and relax with a double espresso like the liberal, metropolitan elite scum that I am.
    Not a cortado? Clearly not a proper liberal...
    See this is where you can tell I’m a leave voter. Given a spare 45 minutes I’m more likely to have a pint....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Why do Londoners set off for work so late? I get to work/uni with at least 45 minutes to spare so if the bus is late or there is traffic, it does not matter...

    45 mins to spare, don't you have better things to do with your time other than sit in the office working for free?
    I go to a cafe nearby and relax with a double espresso like the liberal, metropolitan elite scum that I am.
    Not a cortado? Clearly not a proper liberal...
    See this is where you can tell I’m a leave voter. Given a spare 45 minutes I’m more likely to have a pint....
    Especially at 8:15 :D
  • @Big_G_NorthWales there’s plenty of Teslas driving around the NE and more so every year. I see one at least a few times a week.

    I am in favour of electric cars but the issues on affordability and range are immense

    In order to go fully electric where does the extra power capacity come from, how do we replace the 28 billion fuel tax we currently receive, and how do we scrap all the petrol and diesel cars owned across the nation, many of which will still be roadworthy in 15 years time
    Fuel tax will be a problem but power generation will not be. We’re rapidly closing in on more then 50% renewable. Add in a solid 20% nuclear and improved battery storage, and we will only need a smallish amount of gas to manage demand. In terms of replacing the stock of cars, I’d need to look at stats, but I doubt too many people have a car older than 15 years old. So 15-20 years from the sale of the last petrol car (hastened as petrol stations close or convert to electric) you’ll see change over. Petrol cars will be limited to classics only in 30 years.
    I agree largely with your post but am doubtful on power generation considering the massive increase in demand that will follow all vehicles being electric
    This is where my view on making electric cars work departs from greens. We need to really go for nuclear.
    I used to think that but I don't think so anymore. I think we can manage with primarily with wind, I no longer see nuclear as the solution. Wind is far cheaper than nuclear.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited December 2019
    deleted (confused blockquotes - got the people mixed up)
  • RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Why do Londoners set off for work so late? I get to work/uni with at least 45 minutes to spare so if the bus is late or there is traffic, it does not matter...

    45 mins to spare, don't you have better things to do with your time other than sit in the office working for free?
    I go to a cafe nearby and relax with a double espresso like the liberal, metropolitan elite scum that I am.
    Not a cortado? Clearly not a proper liberal...
    See this is where you can tell I’m a leave voter. Given a spare 45 minutes I’m more likely to have a pint....
    Especially at 8:15 :D
    Drinking and working is like darts. Up to three pints and the quality improves.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
    Stocky said:

    I note after my Betting Post re Bolsover last week the odds against on Skinner now gone.

    Both Parties available now at Evs.

    Take your pick

    I`m on Tories, but may have this wrong.
    Yougov MRP has the Tories on 42% and Skinner on 38% in Bolsover

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:
    Another one of the Jezza "good friends", who in the Times newspaper claimed when she was living and working in Jenin in the West Bank at the height of the Second Intifada, in which she suggested that terror groups should attack Israeli MKs instead of civilians.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-labour-speaker-who-called-for-killing-israeli-mks-said-nixed-from-summit/

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/momentum-speaker-ewa-jasiewicz-bump-off-israeli-mps-670vbvrnh

    Is she still a member of the Labour party? Or just helping out? I notice the Guardian have also been happy to have her write for them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    I see Workinton has best price 8/11 Tories 6/4 Lab I expect next MRP to have this closer and think will be Evs the pair
  • HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
  • HYUFD said:
    Do they not realise we have a points based immigration system already. What does Australian style actually mean as opposed to the UK points? Why havent they changed the points system to the one they seem to prefer in a decade in power?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/points-based-system-tier-2

    Another lazy policy, no detail or basis in reality, just trying to win votes for the sake of winning.
  • MaxPB said:



    Not a cortado? Clearly not a proper liberal...

    See this is where you can tell I’m a leave voter. Given a spare 45 minutes I’m more likely to have a pint....
    What do you do for the other 39 minutes?
  • HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    I note after my Betting Post re Bolsover last week the odds against on Skinner now gone.

    Both Parties available now at Evs.

    Take your pick

    I`m on Tories, but may have this wrong.
    Yougov MRP has the Tories on 42% and Skinner on 38% in Bolsover

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
    My model has it Con 42 Lab 40. If Skinner has any kind of personal vote (which my model doesn't allow for) then he could well hold it. Evens looks about right to me at current polling.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited December 2019
    TOPPING said:

    the policy would shift the cost of the railways more to general taxation. ie that bus user in Barnsley. That person would be subsidising the commuter in Barnes.
    It's illiterate of Labour. But typical I suppose.

    You can't look at Fiscal Corner in that reductive manner. Or you can, rather, but I it is not helpful. We do not have hypothecated taxes. It is therefore only the complete picture that makes any sense - i.e. the total net impact on each person of Labour's proposed changes. If you study this, you will find that the poorer you are the (relatively) better off, all told, you will be. This is the whole point of the Labour Party. Why I always vote for them. Why I'm a member.
  • HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    I note after my Betting Post re Bolsover last week the odds against on Skinner now gone.

    Both Parties available now at Evs.

    Take your pick

    I`m on Tories, but may have this wrong.
    Yougov MRP has the Tories on 42% and Skinner on 38% in Bolsover

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
    It won't happen. Tribal Labour will rally to Labour, particularly in places like Bolsover. A hung parliament or a very very small majority for the Tories is where my guess is for the overall result. Boris Johnson will be shown for the failure he is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:
    Do they not realise we have a points based immigration system already. What does Australian style actually mean as opposed to the UK points? Why havent they changed the points system to the one they seem to prefer in a decade in power?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/points-based-system-tier-2

    Another lazy policy, no detail or basis in reality, just trying to win votes for the sake of winning.
    We do not have it for EU/EEA workers, we have free movement for that
  • @Big_G_NorthWales there’s plenty of Teslas driving around the NE and more so every year. I see one at least a few times a week.

    I am in favour of electric cars but the issues on affordability and range are immense

    In order to go fully electric where does the extra power capacity come from, how do we replace the 28 billion fuel tax we currently receive, and how do we scrap all the petrol and diesel cars owned across the nation, many of which will still be roadworthy in 15 years time
    Fuel tax will be a problem but power generation will not be. We’re rapidly closing in on more then 50% renewable. Add in a solid 20% nuclear and improved battery storage, and we will only need a smallish amount of gas to manage demand. In terms of replacing the stock of cars, I’d need to look at stats, but I doubt too many people have a car older than 15 years old. So 15-20 years from the sale of the last petrol car (hastened as petrol stations close or convert to electric) you’ll see change over. Petrol cars will be limited to classics only in 30 years.
    I agree largely with your post but am doubtful on power generation considering the massive increase in demand that will follow all vehicles being electric
    This is where my view on making electric cars work departs from greens. We need to really go for nuclear.
    I used to think that but I don't think so anymore. I think we can manage with primarily with wind, I no longer see nuclear as the solution. Wind is far cheaper than nuclear.
    So speaks the energy expert. The share prices of the nuclear industry just crashed on that pronouncement.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Do they not realise we have a points based immigration system already. What does Australian style actually mean as opposed to the UK points? Why havent they changed the points system to the one they seem to prefer in a decade in power?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/points-based-system-tier-2

    Another lazy policy, no detail or basis in reality, just trying to win votes for the sake of winning.
    We do not have it for EU/EEA workers, we have free movement for that
    So basically the policy is leave the EU (aka Brexit, which people might be aware of), and keep the UK points system? Whats Australia got to do with it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    I note after my Betting Post re Bolsover last week the odds against on Skinner now gone.

    Both Parties available now at Evs.

    Take your pick

    I`m on Tories, but may have this wrong.
    Yougov MRP has the Tories on 42% and Skinner on 38% in Bolsover

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
    It won't happen. Tribal Labour will rally to Labour, particularly in places like Bolsover. A hung parliament or a very very small majority for the Tories is where my guess is for the overall result. Boris Johnson will be shown for the failure he is.
    The Tories are winning over 70% of Leave voters and Bolsover was over 70% Leave

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1201403123186585602?s=20

    https://www.itv.com/news/central/update/2016-06-24/bolsover-votes-to-leave/
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Do they not realise we have a points based immigration system already. What does Australian style actually mean as opposed to the UK points? Why havent they changed the points system to the one they seem to prefer in a decade in power?

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/points-based-system-tier-2

    Another lazy policy, no detail or basis in reality, just trying to win votes for the sake of winning.
    We do not have it for EU/EEA workers, we have free movement for that
    Australian Rules points system works as follows:
    6 points for a goal, 1 point for a behind.
    Quite how it affects immigration I have no idea.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited December 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    BTW - still no response from Labour on the abortion question. Very feeble of them. The Tories responded within 24 hours on the WASPI issue.

    That is disappointing. Looks like you will have to make do with my answer then. I am a member so it's semi official.
  • HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    I see Workinton has best price 8/11 Tories 6/4 Lab I expect next MRP to have this closer and think will be Evs the pair

    I agree. Just had a tenner on.
    I`m also surprised to see Tories still favourite in Reading East.
  • kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    the policy would shift the cost of the railways more to general taxation. ie that bus user in Barnsley. That person would be subsidising the commuter in Barnes.
    It's illiterate of Labour. But typical I suppose.

    You can't look at Fiscal Corner in that reductive manner. Or you can, rather, but I it is not helpful. We do not have hypothecated taxes. It is therefore only the complete picture that makes any sense - i.e. the total net impact on each person of Labour's proposed changes. If you study this, you will find that the poorer you are the (relatively) better off, all told, you will be. This is the whole point of the Labour Party. Why I always vote for them. Why I'm a member.
    I have a lot of time for the idea of nationalising the railways, but the way Labour is proposing it means they haven’t thought it through and they’d cock it up.
    One of the reasons for having a lot of the running costs with with fares is to be certain of funds for safety work. The more you make it tax driven, the more tempting it gets to put off a signal replacement because it’s “only one more year”.
    Similarly, one of the reasons I’m attracted to some form of NHS hypothecation and even less political control is the state of the backlog maintenance.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    I note after my Betting Post re Bolsover last week the odds against on Skinner now gone.

    Both Parties available now at Evs.

    Take your pick

    I`m on Tories, but may have this wrong.
    Yougov MRP has the Tories on 42% and Skinner on 38% in Bolsover

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
    It won't happen. Tribal Labour will rally to Labour, particularly in places like Bolsover. A hung parliament or a very very small majority for the Tories is where my guess is for the overall result. Boris Johnson will be shown for the failure he is.
    The Tories are winning over 70% of Leave voters and Bolsover was over 70% Leave

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1201403123186585602?s=20

    https://www.itv.com/news/central/update/2016-06-24/bolsover-votes-to-leave/
    Keep convincing yourself if it makes you feel better. People are most likely bored with Brexit, particularly Labour voters. The thought of a massive Tory majority will probably cause them to still vote Labour, just like they did last time. Hung parliament and chaos here we come. All thanks to Boris fecking Johnson and his ego.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Bassetlaw 4/9 Tories I would hang on till after next MRP Tories at 4/7 would be great value looks an almost certain Tory Gain barring late momentum

    Don Valley I am on Flint at 5/4 Best price now Evs and is still value with Betway IMO should goodds on if MRP moves a fraction

    Barrow 1/3 Tories is safe bet but again could drift when next MRP hits

    Labour Cardiff North vale now gone I am on at Evs

    Bolsover I am on Lab at 5/4 now Evs for whichever party you fancy. I reckon a 2000 win for the Beast

    DYOR
  • HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
    But we dont just need the best and brightest. We need low skilled migration because of our demographics. And there are reasons why migration from our neighbouring countries are better than those far away, just as there are reasons why migration from countries we have some shared history with via the Commonwealth are also better sources of migration than countries that are both far away and we have less in common with.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Stocky said:

    I see Workinton has best price 8/11 Tories 6/4 Lab I expect next MRP to have this closer and think will be Evs the pair

    I agree. Just had a tenner on.
    I`m also surprised to see Tories still favourite in Reading East.
    The 2017 election left money to be made on Lab Holds. I've rather been hoping for the same and have bet on many of the same seats. However I feel this day that we are either we are at peak labour already or that the forthcoming peak labour is priced in. It's hard to find value at present, though 6/4 in Workington does look not shabby.
  • @kinabalu

    It’s certainly credible that private transport will move to (effectively) all electric one day, perhaps even with a high degree of driverless automation.

    It isn’t that “private transport” will become obsolete. That isn’t how most people live outside major metropolitan cities.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Just seen Chesterfield Lab 1/3 looks fantastic value IMO
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    You can't look at Fiscal Corner in that reductive manner. Or you can, rather, but I it is not helpful. We do not have hypothecated taxes. It is therefore only the complete picture that makes any sense - i.e. the total net impact on each person of Labour's proposed changes. If you study this, you will find that the poorer you are the (relatively) better off, all told, you will be. This is the whole point of the Labour Party. Why I always vote for them. Why I'm a member.

    Let me put it in a way you might understand.
    If Lab introduces this policy, the poorest (tax paying) people will be worse off.
  • Sort of on topic, it looks like Cummings has saved up most of the Tory donations to do a final ten-day social media blitz of all the key messages.

    Fans might recall this is exactly what he did with Vote Leave.
  • HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
    People who support Brexit really shouldn't call others muppets. I am tempted to say that Brexit, and in particular your simpleton like views on it, represents the ultimate in muppetry, except the average muppet has more insight and intellect in their sawdust filled head on a bad day than you do on a good one. How is your energy consultancy going by the way? Any more great pronouncements?
  • Just seen Chesterfield Lab 1/3 looks fantastic value IMO

    I have Labour holding it by 10pp.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    I note after my Betting Post re Bolsover last week the odds against on Skinner now gone.

    Both Parties available now at Evs.

    Take your pick

    I`m on Tories, but may have this wrong.
    Yougov MRP has the Tories on 42% and Skinner on 38% in Bolsover

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
    My model has it Con 42 Lab 40. If Skinner has any kind of personal vote (which my model doesn't allow for) then he could well hold it. Evens looks about right to me at current polling.
    My model has Con 39 Lab 43 with help from LDs and Green.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
    People who support Brexit really shouldn't call others muppets. I am tempted to say that Brexit, and in particular your simpleton like views on it, represents the ultimate in muppetry, except the average muppet has more insight and intellect in their sawdust filled head on a bad day than you do on a good one. How is your energy consultancy going by the way? Any more great pronouncements?
    Ending free movement does not mean the same as "no EU immigration".
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    You can't look at Fiscal Corner in that reductive manner. Or you can, rather, but I it is not helpful. We do not have hypothecated taxes. It is therefore only the complete picture that makes any sense - i.e. the total net impact on each person of Labour's proposed changes. If you study this, you will find that the poorer you are the (relatively) better off, all told, you will be. This is the whole point of the Labour Party. Why I always vote for them. Why I'm a member.

    Let me put it in a way you might understand.
    If Lab introduces this policy, the poorest (tax paying) people will be worse off.
    Bit like Brexit I guess.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Stocky said:

    I see Workinton has best price 8/11 Tories 6/4 Lab I expect next MRP to have this closer and think will be Evs the pair

    I agree. Just had a tenner on.
    I`m also surprised to see Tories still favourite in Reading East.
    I have Con 44 Lab 48 for Reading East, again with help from LDs and Green.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,080
    Thank you, @corporeal , a very interesting thread header.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    @kinabalu

    It’s certainly credible that private transport will move to (effectively) all electric one day, perhaps even with a high degree of driverless automation.

    It isn’t that “private transport” will become obsolete. That isn’t how most people live outside major metropolitan cities.

    If i could summon an affordable johnnycab to arrive within 5 minutes I'd not run a car. As most of a cost of a taxi is the driver time, affordable johnnycabs via the uber app is the future surely?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
    Im sure you have many talents but knowledge of immigration law is not one of them. The U.K. Points Based System under the Conservative Party (now disingenuously described by your disgrace of a party as “Australian” because, you know, mostly white, mostly English speaking) has effectively stopped non-EU immigration for talented people and post-Brexit it will be expanded to stop it for EU people too. The only people it worked for are rich investors, not necessarily the “best” and not necessarily the “brightest”. The Conservative Party only cares about money. It had no time for talented people without it as their immigration record attests. There is no open category under the Points Based System for “best” or “brightest” - only “loaded” or “more loaded”.

    The reason for so many people coming here from the EU is because it is reciprocal. How many countries are going to let our undereducated populace in after Brexit - particularly as our universities will go down the pan with no overseas academics.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    the policy would shift the cost of the railways more to general taxation. ie that bus user in Barnsley. That person would be subsidising the commuter in Barnes.
    It's illiterate of Labour. But typical I suppose.

    You can't look at Fiscal Corner in that reductive manner. Or you can, rather, but I it is not helpful. We do not have hypothecated taxes. It is therefore only the complete picture that makes any sense - i.e. the total net impact on each person of Labour's proposed changes. If you study this, you will find that the poorer you are the (relatively) better off, all told, you will be. This is the whole point of the Labour Party. Why I always vote for them. Why I'm a member.
    I have a lot of time for the idea of nationalising the railways, but the way Labour is proposing it means they haven’t thought it through and they’d cock it up.
    One of the reasons for having a lot of the running costs with with fares is to be certain of funds for safety work. The more you make it tax driven, the more tempting it gets to put off a signal replacement because it’s “only one more year”.
    Similarly, one of the reasons I’m attracted to some form of NHS hypothecation and even less political control is the state of the backlog maintenance.
    Is the hypothecation risk that if they hypotheticated tax take falls, NHS spending must fall?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    edited December 2019

    Bassetlaw 4/9 Tories I would hang on till after next MRP Tories at 4/7 would be great value looks an almost certain Tory Gain barring late momentum

    Don Valley I am on Flint at 5/4 Best price now Evs and is still value with Betway IMO should goodds on if MRP moves a fraction

    Barrow 1/3 Tories is safe bet but again could drift when next MRP hits

    Labour Cardiff North vale now gone I am on at Evs

    Bolsover I am on Lab at 5/4 now Evs for whichever party you fancy. I reckon a 2000 win for the Beast

    DYOR

    I’d be careful. Skinner may well win but Tory canvass returns showed us taking Southampton Test by 500-1,000 in GE2017.

    We lost by well over 10,000.

    Voters aren’t always truthful either.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,444

    Sort of on topic, it looks like Cummings has saved up most of the Tory donations to do a final ten-day social media blitz of all the key messages.
    Fans might recall this is exactly what he did with Vote Leave.

    Meanwhile Labour recently announced redundancies. We may see an example of one of the things that money can buy.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155

    Just seen Chesterfield Lab 1/3 looks fantastic value IMO

    I have Labour holding it by 10pp.
    If Chesterfield goes blue, Tories wilbe looking for 150+ seat majority
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Bit like Brexit I guess.

    Yep
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited December 2019

    Sort of on topic, it looks like Cummings has saved up most of the Tory donations to do a final ten-day social media blitz of all the key messages.
    Fans might recall this is exactly what he did with Vote Leave.

    Meanwhile Labour recently announced redundancies. We may see an example of one of the things that money can buy.
    That was really strange, especially as Uncle Len has just opened the purse and bunged Labour a load of dosh.
  • camel said:

    @kinabalu

    It’s certainly credible that private transport will move to (effectively) all electric one day, perhaps even with a high degree of driverless automation.

    It isn’t that “private transport” will become obsolete. That isn’t how most people live outside major metropolitan cities.

    If i could summon an affordable johnnycab to arrive within 5 minutes I'd not run a car. As most of a cost of a taxi is the driver time, affordable johnnycabs via the uber app is the future surely?
    I think many, and possibly most, people like to be in control and enjoy the act of driving itself.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Until you have charging points all over the place, dream on. They are too few, too slow, too unreliable to make it sensible to move to an all electric car. This is one area of infrastructure where the government ought to be investing heavily. I would like to get one but not if I can’t be certain of finding a charging point which works.

    You can get one at home, I believe. My brother has one on his fence.
    I was referring to electric cars.
    The number of times I can park outside my house does not make it sensible to rely on an electric car in London. I don't use it often - mainly for transporting plants or to travel out of the city. In the Lakes when I move there, yes, I can charge at home but would need reliable charging points in the area. You don't want to be stuck on the fells with a car that's run out of energy.
    BTW - still no response from Labour on the abortion question. Very feeble of them. The Tories responded within 24 hours on the WASPI issue.
    You might be surprised how many charging points there are even in remote areas. This map shows quite a few in the Lake District. Depends on your personal circumstances, but for most people the range is sufficient nowadays.
    https://www.zap-map.com/live/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    I have to say even I'm surprised as to how little play the Labour freebie on train fares has got. I thought it would be looked upon pretty poorly, but it seems to have disappeared without a trace.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
    Im sure you have many talents but knowledge of immigration law is not one of them. The U.K. Points Based System under the Conservative Party (now disingenuously described by your disgrace of a party as “Australian” because, you know, mostly white, mostly English speaking) has effectively stopped non-EU immigration for talented people and post-Brexit it will be expanded to stop it for EU people too. The only people it worked for are rich investors, not necessarily the “best” and not necessarily the “brightest”. The Conservative Party only cares about money. It had no time for talented people without it as their immigration record attests. There is no open category under the Points Based System for “best” or “brightest” - only “loaded” or “more loaded”.

    The reason for so many people coming here from the EU is because it is reciprocal. How many countries are going to let our undereducated populace in after Brexit - particularly as our universities will go down the pan with no overseas academics.
    How many undereducated Brits take advantage of freedom of movement?
  • But we dont just need the best and brightest. We need low skilled migration because of our demographics. And there are reasons why migration from our neighbouring countries are better than those far away, just as there are reasons why migration from countries we have some shared history with via the Commonwealth are also better sources of migration than countries that are both far away and we have less in common with.

    We do primarily need the best and brightest. Our own unskilled can do low skilled jobs. But if there's certain industries which desperately need more migrants like for example care then that can be accounted for via points - more care workers come from non-EU than from within the EU.

    More of our emigration goes to far away countries so that doesn't explain why location is so important or why we need uncontrolled migration.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited December 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Let me put it in a way you might understand.
    If Lab introduces this policy, the poorest (tax paying) people will be worse off.

    In isolation, yes. But taken in the round the net impact of Labour replacing the Cons in government will be the poorest are better off. It's the aggregate impact which counts. There is no reason why every single Labour policy should benefit the poor at the expense of the rich. Ditto, in reverse, with the Cons. Of course the Cons will, broadly speaking, seek - and successfully - to benefit the rich at the expense of the poor, but this does not stop them doing some tinkering the other way every now and again. For example ... well I'm sure there are some.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    When the MRP came out, SportingInex moved to "sell" prices for Con and Lab of 347 and 201 seats. It is now 336 and 216 and the gap is slowly narrowing.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Just seen Chesterfield Lab 1/3 looks fantastic value IMO

    I have Labour holding it by 10pp.
    Maj cut from 9k to 6k i think is the view.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Reading East 15-8 at Betway
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    argyllrs said:

    Just seen Chesterfield Lab 1/3 looks fantastic value IMO

    I have Labour holding it by 10pp.
    If Chesterfield goes blue, Tories wilbe looking for 150+ seat majority
    How big is the majority if Leicester East goes :D ?!
  • Barnesian said:

    When the MRP came out, SportingInex moved to "sell" prices for Con and Lab of 347 and 201 seats. It is now 336 and 216 and the gap is slowly narrowing.

    That shouldn't be really surprising, given MRP was based on 11 point lead, now we are talking 7-9%.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    camel said:

    @kinabalu

    It’s certainly credible that private transport will move to (effectively) all electric one day, perhaps even with a high degree of driverless automation.

    It isn’t that “private transport” will become obsolete. That isn’t how most people live outside major metropolitan cities.

    If i could summon an affordable johnnycab to arrive within 5 minutes I'd not run a car. As most of a cost of a taxi is the driver time, affordable johnnycabs via the uber app is the future surely?
    I think many, and possibly most, people like to be in control and enjoy the act of driving itself.
    Maybe across the Brecon Beacons. Not from Keighley to Cleckheaton. in my dream world, for every 100 johnnycab rides you get 3 days' free hire of a Lotus Elise.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    But we dont just need the best and brightest. We need low skilled migration because of our demographics. And there are reasons why migration from our neighbouring countries are better than those far away, just as there are reasons why migration from countries we have some shared history with via the Commonwealth are also better sources of migration than countries that are both far away and we have less in common with.

    We do primarily need the best and brightest. Our own unskilled can do low skilled jobs. But if there's certain industries which desperately need more migrants like for example care then that can be accounted for via points - more care workers come from non-EU than from within the EU.

    More of our emigration goes to far away countries so that doesn't explain why location is so important or why we need uncontrolled migration.
    How do we trust the Tories to run a points based system for immigrants from the whole world when they can’t run one for part of the world at the moment? They have a track record and it is abysmal
  • Wasn’t it around this time in 2017 that we started getting severe divergence in the polls and some started showing things like 1% leads? Or was that later and I’m misremembering?

    I think Labour are definitely doing better than expected, but the key will be whether they can get the gap to 5% or below with a few pollsters.

    Labour's hope is pinned on a few of the pollsters - BMG, SavantaComRes, PanelBase- having got it right. Otherwise, if Deltapoll and Opinium are right they get smashed. If the rest are right, they still lose, just not so badly.
    FWIW, I wouldn't be too surprised to see today's Survation being close to the final. Maybe the Brexit Party vote squeezed down to nothing, to the slight benefit of the Tories. Labour's vote piled up where they don't need it, in the cities. The Tory vote thinned out where they can most afford it - SE England. The Labour vote thinned out where they can least afford it - Midlands and Northern marginals. The LibDem vote squeezed. A workable Tory majority.
    Labour not wiped out to the point where they HAVE to walk away from Corbynism, but clear enough to many they are stopping Labour from getting power. Ongoing civil war in the Labour ranks. Pressure on Swinson to step down. Farage into the Lords. SNP full of impotent rage because Boris won't let them have another referendum. As Boris goes down the rabbit hole of trade talks with the EU.
    - “SNP full of impotent rage because Boris won't let them have another referendum.”

    Quite the opposite. Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
  • DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
    Im sure you have many talents but knowledge of immigration law is not one of them. The U.K. Points Based System under the Conservative Party (now disingenuously described by your disgrace of a party as “Australian” because, you know, mostly white, mostly English speaking) has effectively stopped non-EU immigration for talented people and post-Brexit it will be expanded to stop it for EU people too. The only people it worked for are rich investors, not necessarily the “best” and not necessarily the “brightest”. The Conservative Party only cares about money. It had no time for talented people without it as their immigration record attests. There is no open category under the Points Based System for “best” or “brightest” - only “loaded” or “more loaded”.

    The reason for so many people coming here from the EU is because it is reciprocal. How many countries are going to let our undereducated populace in after Brexit - particularly as our universities will go down the pan with no overseas academics.
    You can do all your ranting and raving you want but the facts just aren't on your side. As far as non-EU migration is concerned it is going up not down, while concern about migration is going down and not up. Seems like the points system is working at attracting the non-EU migrants we want.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
    Im sure you have many talents but knowledge of immigration law is not one of them. The U.K. Points Based System under the Conservative Party (now disingenuously described by your disgrace of a party as “Australian” because, you know, mostly white, mostly English speaking) has effectively stopped non-EU immigration for talented people and post-Brexit it will be expanded to stop it for EU people too. The only people it worked for are rich investors, not necessarily the “best” and not necessarily the “brightest”. The Conservative Party only cares about money. It had no time for talented people without it as their immigration record attests. There is no open category under the Points Based System for “best” or “brightest” - only “loaded” or “more loaded”.

    The reason for so many people coming here from the EU is because it is reciprocal. How many countries are going to let our undereducated populace in after Brexit - particularly as our universities will go down the pan with no overseas academics.
    How many undereducated Brits take advantage of freedom of movement?
    I’m saying we are comparatively undereducated as a nation. We rely on people from overseas to do everything from pick our apples to run our central bank. We are a dumb nation - as Brexit proves.
  • camel said:

    @kinabalu

    It’s certainly credible that private transport will move to (effectively) all electric one day, perhaps even with a high degree of driverless automation.

    It isn’t that “private transport” will become obsolete. That isn’t how most people live outside major metropolitan cities.

    If i could summon an affordable johnnycab to arrive within 5 minutes I'd not run a car. As most of a cost of a taxi is the driver time, affordable johnnycabs via the uber app is the future surely?
    I think that depends how often you use a car, for what purpose and how affordable it is.

    If you are just shuttling to the station occasionally or for a night out, yes.

    If you have a large family with young kids, or need to move a lot of shopping or equipment around and travel regularly, you will probably want your own transport if you can afford it.
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    Pulpstar said:

    argyllrs said:

    Just seen Chesterfield Lab 1/3 looks fantastic value IMO

    I have Labour holding it by 10pp.
    If Chesterfield goes blue, Tories wilbe looking for 150+ seat majority
    How big is the majority if Leicester East goes :D ?!
    In that case Corby could hold parliament party meeting in a telephone box
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited December 2019
    kinabalu said:

    In isolation, yes. But taken in the round the net impact of Labour replacing the Cons in government will be the poorest are better off. It's the aggregate impact which counts. There is no reason why every single Labour policy should benefit the poor at the expense of the rich. Ditto, in reverse, with the Cons. Of course the Cons will, broadly speaking, seek - and successfully - to benefit the rich at the expense of the poor, but this does not stop them doing some tinkering the other way every now and again. For example ... well I'm sure there are some.

    Thanks. So you agree that this policy will discriminate against the poor in favour of the better off. And this is what they wanted. For balance? Some policies benefit the poor at the expense of the rich, and some, like this one, do the opposite.
    I mean I wouldn't mind but I don't think that was their intention. You for example didn't understand it to begin with.
    So again what worries me is the competency of Labour for all the announced policies.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Pulpstar said:

    Reading East 15-8 at Betway

    I`ve taken a fair bit at that price with Bet365
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Bassetlaw 4/9 Tories I would hang on till after next MRP Tories at 4/7 would be great value looks an almost certain Tory Gain barring late momentum

    Don Valley I am on Flint at 5/4 Best price now Evs and is still value with Betway IMO should goodds on if MRP moves a fraction

    Barrow 1/3 Tories is safe bet but again could drift when next MRP hits

    Labour Cardiff North vale now gone I am on at Evs

    Bolsover I am on Lab at 5/4 now Evs for whichever party you fancy. I reckon a 2000 win for the Beast

    DYOR

    I’d be careful. Skinner may well win but Tory canvass returns showed us taking Southampton Test by 500-1,000 in GE2017.

    We lost by well over 10,000.

    Voters aren’t always truthful either.
    Agreed i said last week canvassers arent always best people to ask.

    I think they do pick up a direction of travel in an election as per David Herdson
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    Incidentally, regardless of what you think of me, the way in which a small group of right-wingers on here pile in together onto one person is poor show. You did it to CBD the other day and it was pretty off behaviour. This site isn't Guido Fawkes and it's good that people can air views across a spectrum without being personally eviscerated in the process.

    I accept that calling Brexiteers 'Far Right' may appear offensive but I genuinely believe that it has always ideologically been the Golden Fleece of the Far Right. As I say, even Maggie wasn't a Brexiteer.

    Have a good day! :wink:

    The problem with your bat-shit crazy-assed assessment is that it requires you to place the 17.4m who voted to Leave in the Far Right category. You know, the majority.
    And to have the majority of Labour MPs representing the Far Right.
    Your genuine beliefs are not worth listening to.
    Most of the 17.4 million didn't believe in Brexit as an article of faith - they were been convinced the EU is the root of most or all their problems with society and government.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited December 2019

    @kinabalu
    It’s certainly credible that private transport will move to (effectively) all electric one day, perhaps even with a high degree of driverless automation.
    It isn’t that “private transport” will become obsolete. That isn’t how most people live outside major metropolitan cities.

    I'd say that all electric and driverless is surely coming. It would be quite a failure of technology and planning if that were not to transpire in fairly short order. But, yes, as regards the 'private' angle, I can see this disappearing in metropolis, that's logical, but less so out in less populated areas.
  • DougSeal said:

    But we dont just need the best and brightest. We need low skilled migration because of our demographics. And there are reasons why migration from our neighbouring countries are better than those far away, just as there are reasons why migration from countries we have some shared history with via the Commonwealth are also better sources of migration than countries that are both far away and we have less in common with.

    We do primarily need the best and brightest. Our own unskilled can do low skilled jobs. But if there's certain industries which desperately need more migrants like for example care then that can be accounted for via points - more care workers come from non-EU than from within the EU.

    More of our emigration goes to far away countries so that doesn't explain why location is so important or why we need uncontrolled migration.
    How do we trust the Tories to run a points based system for immigrants from the whole world when they can’t run one for part of the world at the moment? They have a track record and it is abysmal
    Non-EU migration has gone up five years in a row: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50586338

    You're just lying. Who do you think you are going to kid with this nonsense?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    DougSeal said:

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
    Im sure you have many talents but knowledge of immigration law is not one of them. The U.K. Points Based System under the Conservative Party (now disingenuously described by your disgrace of a party as “Australian” because, you know, mostly white, mostly English speaking) has effectively stopped non-EU immigration for talented people and post-Brexit it will be expanded to stop it for EU people too. The only people it worked for are rich investors, not necessarily the “best” and not necessarily the “brightest”. The Conservative Party only cares about money. It had no time for talented people without it as their immigration record attests. There is no open category under the Points Based System for “best” or “brightest” - only “loaded” or “more loaded”.

    The reason for so many people coming here from the EU is because it is reciprocal. How many countries are going to let our undereducated populace in after Brexit - particularly as our universities will go down the pan with no overseas academics.
    How many undereducated Brits take advantage of freedom of movement?
    I’m saying we are comparatively undereducated as a nation. We rely on people from overseas to do everything from pick our apples to run our central bank. We are a dumb nation - as Brexit proves.
    I was questioning your assertion that they come here because it’s reciprocal. I don’t think that is the driving factor.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Did Bojo really lie to Marr about the queen's speech being defeated?

    Not that I recall
    Just found the BBC fact check

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50624056

    He said "we have a queen's speech that was blocked by Parliament"
    I wasn’t paying that much attention!

    I do think that a reasonable way to interpret that is to refer to the *contents* of the bill (ie Brexit)vs the actual formal queens speech
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Barnesian said:

    When the MRP came out, SportingInex moved to "sell" prices for Con and Lab of 347 and 201 seats. It is now 336 and 216 and the gap is slowly narrowing.

    It looks like a market that's trading 'long' in CON and 'short' in LAB and the movements are explianed by profit taking.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reading East 15-8 at Betway

    I`ve taken a fair bit at that price with Bet365
    I've probably been too timid in only taking £25 at Betway ;)

    Nevertheless at 62% remain and prime train bung territory looks a stonking bet
  • Sort of on topic, it looks like Cummings has saved up most of the Tory donations to do a final ten-day social media blitz of all the key messages.
    Fans might recall this is exactly what he did with Vote Leave.

    Meanwhile Labour recently announced redundancies. We may see an example of one of the things that money can buy.

    I’m not sure Facebook holds the same power now that it did c.2015-2016. The gloss has come off a bit and slightly dispersed to other platforms, even in the last three years. These things move very quickly.

    Nevertheless, one has to think about reach and not everyone scrapes their news from the BBC website, newspaper headlines or Twitter, and such people (us) probably represent the over-engaged.
  • DougSeal said:

    RobD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
    Im sure you have many talents but knowledge of immigration law is not one of them. The U.K. Points Based System under the Conservative Party (now disingenuously described by your disgrace of a party as “Australian” because, you know, mostly white, mostly English speaking) has effectively stopped non-EU immigration for talented people and post-Brexit it will be expanded to stop it for EU people too. The only people it worked for are rich investors, not necessarily the “best” and not necessarily the “brightest”. The Conservative Party only cares about money. It had no time for talented people without it as their immigration record attests. There is no open category under the Points Based System for “best” or “brightest” - only “loaded” or “more loaded”.

    The reason for so many people coming here from the EU is because it is reciprocal. How many countries are going to let our undereducated populace in after Brexit - particularly as our universities will go down the pan with no overseas academics.
    How many undereducated Brits take advantage of freedom of movement?
    I’m saying we are comparatively undereducated as a nation. We rely on people from overseas to do everything from pick our apples to run our central bank. We are a dumb nation - as Brexit proves.
    Your own post gives some evidence to your theory but I don't think it is concrete proof.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    camel said:

    The 2017 election left money to be made on Lab Holds. I've rather been hoping for the same and have bet on many of the same seats. However I feel this day that we are either we are at peak labour already or that the forthcoming peak labour is priced in. It's hard to find value at present, though 6/4 in Workington does look not shabby.

    That is bellweather, isn't it. Where Workington goes ...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    BTW - still no response from Labour on the abortion question. Very feeble of them. The Tories responded within 24 hours on the WASPI issue.

    That is disappointing. Looks like you will have to make do with my answer then. I am a member so it's semi official.
    With great respect to you, you lovely person, unless you were involved in writing the manifesto, I will make do with the answer given by the Labour spokeswoman, which - sadly for you - is not what you said and believe.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,845
    edited December 2019
    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Alistair said:

    Did Bojo really lie to Marr about the queen's speech being defeated?

    Not that I recall
    Just found the BBC fact check

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50624056

    He said "we have a queen's speech that was blocked by Parliament"
    I wasn’t paying that much attention!

    I do think that a reasonable way to interpret that is to refer to the *contents* of the bill (ie Brexit)vs the actual formal queens speech
    They voted for the WA too! Or werent you paying attention then either?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reading East 15-8 at Betway

    I`ve taken a fair bit at that price with Bet365
    I've probably been too timid in only taking £25 at Betway ;)

    Nevertheless at 62% remain and prime train bung territory looks a stonking bet
    I`ve got £65 on Lab in Reading East, at 15/8 with Bet365 and 2/1 with Bet Victor. It`s my largest constituency bet.
  • MaxPB said:

    I have to say even I'm surprised as to how little play the Labour freebie on train fares has got. I thought it would be looked upon pretty poorly, but it seems to have disappeared without a trace.

    It's bribe fatigue.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reading East 15-8 at Betway

    I`ve taken a fair bit at that price with Bet365
    I've probably been too timid in only taking £25 at Betway ;)

    Nevertheless at 62% remain and prime train bung territory looks a stonking bet
    I`ve got £65 on Lab in Reading East, at 15/8 with Bet365 and 2/1 with Bet Victor. It`s my largest constituency bet.
    Betfair has 38 quid at 2.84 on the Tories in Reading East. (bit less now I've taken some). So I think there's an arb there assuming other parties don't win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    I think I'm going to avoid the Workingtons, Don Valleys, Bolsovers and even my own constituency (Bassetlaw)s. According to MRP they're all going blue - but it's reflected in the odds.
    I'd advise anyone betting on said constituencies to remember they're linked probabilities so if you're on the Labour side (Which is perhaps a marginal touch of value right now) and one bet goes wrong they'll all go wrong.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Until you have charging points all over the place, dream on. They are too few, too slow, too unreliable to make it sensible to move to an all electric car. This is one area of infrastructure where the government ought to be investing heavily. I would like to get one but not if I can’t be certain of finding a charging point which works.

    You can get one at home, I believe. My brother has one on his fence.
    I was referring to electric cars.
    The number of times I can park outside my house does not make it sensible to rely on an electric car in London. I don't use it often - mainly for transporting plants or to travel out of the city. In the Lakes when I move there, yes, I can charge at home but would need reliable charging points in the area. You don't want to be stuck on the fells with a car that's run out of energy.
    BTW - still no response from Labour on the abortion question. Very feeble of them. The Tories responded within 24 hours on the WASPI issue.
    You might be surprised how many charging points there are even in remote areas. This map shows quite a few in the Lake District. Depends on your personal circumstances, but for most people the range is sufficient nowadays.
    https://www.zap-map.com/live/
    The issue is not just distribution but time and quantity. It takes about a minute or two to pump in a whole tank of petrol, it takes about 30 minutes to recharge a car. There are vastly more petrol pumps than electric charge points.

    The charging points we have work for these vehicles that are on the road but if overnight everyone needed them they wouldn't cope. We are at an akward point of needing to scale up both the number of efficiency of charging points and vehicles.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    So in the absence of denial we can assume labour are proposing binning babies at 40 weeks for contraceptive purposes in the interests of 'wimmins rites innit'
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    rkrkrk said:

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reading East 15-8 at Betway

    I`ve taken a fair bit at that price with Bet365
    I've probably been too timid in only taking £25 at Betway ;)

    Nevertheless at 62% remain and prime train bung territory looks a stonking bet
    I`ve got £65 on Lab in Reading East, at 15/8 with Bet365 and 2/1 with Bet Victor. It`s my largest constituency bet.
    Betfair has 38 quid at 2.84 on the Tories in Reading East. (bit less now I've taken some). So I think there's an arb there assuming other parties don't win.
    Good spot.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is such a heap of bullshit. Why? Because the Tories (and Labour before them) have had complete control over non-EU immigration and yet it has accounted for over 50% of that immigration and they have done nothing about it. Why? Because immigration is good for the economy.
    Nobody is saying stop immigration you muppet!

    Why does EU immigration account for nearly half of our immigration when 93% of global population are non-EU? We should allow the best and brightest in without discrimination.
    Im sure you have many talents but knowledge of immigration law is not one of them. The U.K. Points Based System under the Conservative Party (now disingenuously described by your disgrace of a party as “Australian” because, you know, mostly white, mostly English speaking) has effectively stopped non-EU immigration for talented people and post-Brexit it will be expanded to stop it for EU people too. The only people it worked for are rich investors, not necessarily the “best” and not necessarily the “brightest”. The Conservative Party only cares about money. It had no time for talented people without it as their immigration record attests. There is no open category under the Points Based System for “best” or “brightest” - only “loaded” or “more loaded”.

    The reason for so many people coming here from the EU is because it is reciprocal. How many countries are going to let our undereducated populace in after Brexit - particularly as our universities will go down the pan with no overseas academics.
    You can do all your ranting and raving you want but the facts just aren't on your side. As far as non-EU migration is concerned it is going up not down, while concern about migration is going down and not up. Seems like the points system is working at attracting the non-EU migrants we want.
    You can spread as much disinformation as you want but but the facts are completely on my side. I work in the field. We have closed the Highly Skilled Migrant Route, we have stopped graduates being able to work here after graduation, and the number of Entrepreneur visas issued is derisory. Your last leader (yes, your last leader) described migrants as “citizens of nowhere” and your current leader is open about is iliberality regarding people who are not straight, white males.

    At my last firm we acted for a Canadian Theatre company whose temporary Tier 1 application was turned down as the playwright was not part of the group.They were performing Shakespeare.Russian oligarchs were fine though.That’s how bad the Tory points system is.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    It's bribe fatigue.

    Especially when the bribe is to richer train travellers.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    MaxPB said:

    I have to say even I'm surprised as to how little play the Labour freebie on train fares has got. I thought it would be looked upon pretty poorly, but it seems to have disappeared without a trace.

    It's bribe fatigue.
    I hope you are right. Labour`s spending plans are surely terrifying.
  • kinabalu said:

    @kinabalu
    It’s certainly credible that private transport will move to (effectively) all electric one day, perhaps even with a high degree of driverless automation.
    It isn’t that “private transport” will become obsolete. That isn’t how most people live outside major metropolitan cities.

    I'd say that all electric and driverless is surely coming. It would be quite a failure of technology and planning if that were not to transpire in fairly short order. But, yes, as regards the 'private' angle, I can see this disappearing in metropolis, that's logical, but less so out in less populated areas.
    I’d tentatively agree with most of that, yes.

    Worth bearing in mind the value place in owning their own options to travel though.

    That’s very human and not necessarily driven by technology.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    *Betting Post*
    Looking for potential Lab from Con gains and its obviously quite tricky. Possibly Putney, Cities of Westminster Chipping Barnet and Chingford or Watford on a very good night.

    The strongest case outside the M25 I can see is Truro & Falmouth. Labour came within 4,000 votes last time and there are still 8,500 Lib Dem votes to squeeze. While I appreciate Cornwall Lib Dems are not SE Lib Dems, the constituency is around 55% remain and has a fairly large student population from the Arts uni that has helped swell the Labour vote.

    Yougov MRP has it likely Tory, but there is a slight overlap between Lab and Con and on a good day for Corbyn if the polls tighten further this could be one of the few Tory seats to go red and buck the trend.

    I don't think its going to happen but at odds of over 5/1 on Betfair I've had a tickle.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Stocky said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Reading East 15-8 at Betway

    I`ve taken a fair bit at that price with Bet365
    I've probably been too timid in only taking £25 at Betway ;)

    Nevertheless at 62% remain and prime train bung territory looks a stonking bet
    I`ve got £65 on Lab in Reading East, at 15/8 with Bet365 and 2/1 with Bet Victor. It`s my largest constituency bet.
    Betfair has 38 quid at 2.84 on the Tories in Reading East. (bit less now I've taken some). So I think there's an arb there assuming other parties don't win.
    Good spot.
    All gone now. But still a fair bit at 2.68.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    So in the absence of denial we can assume labour are proposing binning babies at 40 weeks for contraceptive purposes in the interests of 'wimmins rites innit'

    "for contraceptive purposes" rather reveals your position - does it not?
    I`m surprised this is even an issue in the country. Maybe it isn`t?
This discussion has been closed.