Labour's internal polling, their canvassing returns, plus the general voice on the ground: tell them they are losing this election badly, and they need to stem losses to Tories in the north and Mids, and Scotland anyhow-whatever, and the commutery LDs in the south.
Everything points that way.
I am not so sure. I actually give Labour credit for their campaign. The pledges might be unworkable and incredibly expensive, but they have thought through demographics to target, how / when to announce them and have done a good job of keeping up the mAOmentum.
On Friday drinks people were literally taking the piss out of Labour's spending policies. One girl even said "I bet they'll do free train travel next". They are a joke. Voters can see through the bribes. It's their own money they are being bribed with.
No offence, but I am not sure your social cycle (or mine) is particularly typical.
Here in two tweets is the epic mind leap that Corbynista have to make. There are parents starving for their kids, and yet we need to give £1K to middle class commuters in the London commute zones.
Some nasty rumours on twitter about the Queen's health
Pretty sure the BBC will be the first to report that.
Are you allowed to report your own rumours? Stupid comment, of course you are Malcolm.
If you are watching BBC1 and it fades to black, or the radio and the program is interrupted with the phrase "this is the BBC from London" you know it's going down.
Labour's internal polling, their canvassing returns, plus the general voice on the ground: tell them they are losing this election badly, and they need to stem losses to Tories in the north and Mids, and Scotland anyhow-whatever, and the commutery LDs in the south.
Everything points that way.
I am not so sure. I actually give Labour credit for their campaign. The pledges might be unworkable and incredibly expensive, but they have thought through demographics to target, how / when to announce them and have done a good job of keeping up the mAOmentum.
On Friday drinks people were literally taking the piss out of Labour's spending policies. One girl even said "I bet they'll do free train travel next". They are a joke. Voters can see through the bribes. It's their own money they are being bribed with.
No offence, but I am not sure your social cycle (or mine) is particularly typical.
Fortunately I am a man of the people, and both my valet and my driver agree.
Lab rail bribe won't work as no one who works hard votes LAB. Only benefit spongers illegal immigrants
As I have an occasional cheeky look at PB whilst I should be working, I do wonder where some of the 24/7 Tory posters find the time to sign on at the Job Centre.
Labour's internal polling, their canvassing returns, plus the general voice on the ground: tell them they are losing this election badly, and they need to stem losses to Tories in the north and Mids, and Scotland anyhow-whatever, and the commutery LDs in the south.
Everything points that way.
I am not so sure. I actually give Labour credit for their campaign. The pledges might be unworkable and incredibly expensive, but they have thought through demographics to target, how / when to announce them and have done a good job of keeping up the mAOmentum.
On Friday drinks people were literally taking the piss out of Labour's spending policies. One girl even said "I bet they'll do free train travel next". They are a joke. Voters can see through the bribes. It's their own money they are being bribed with.
No offence, but I am not sure your social cycle (or mine) is particularly typical.
Is there any such thing as a typical social circle? Other than mine of course.
Labour's internal polling, their canvassing returns, plus the general voice on the ground: tell them they are losing this election badly, and they need to stem losses to Tories in the north and Mids, and Scotland anyhow-whatever, and the commutery LDs in the south.
Everything points that way.
I am not so sure. I actually give Labour credit for their campaign. The pledges might be unworkable and incredibly expensive, but they have thought through demographics to target, how / when to announce them and have done a good job of keeping up the mAOmentum.
On Friday drinks people were literally taking the piss out of Labour's spending policies. One girl even said "I bet they'll do free train travel next". They are a joke. Voters can see through the bribes. It's their own money they are being bribed with.
No offence, but I am not sure your social cycle (or mine) is particularly typical.
Tbf, I got frogmarched to drinks by the junior team (I can expense Friday drinks), most of whom are under 25 and not on massive wages, probably ~£25-27k average. They are prime Labour target voters, even if they work in the city.
For every middle class London commuter who is saving £1K a year under Labour's new plan, we could give someone on disability allowance £19 a week extra.
Lab rail bribe won't work as no one who works hard votes LAB. Only benefit spongers illegal immigrants
As I have an occasional cheeky look at PB whilst I should be working I do wonder where some of the 24/7 Tory posters find the time to sign on at the Job Centre.
Takes time with all the Corbynistas in the queue. I'm retired but you will have already jumped to that conclusion.
Student loan cancellation has to be coming, surely....
I guess that must be being saved for the last weekend now, to maximise the immediacy of its impact in staying in the mind of students.
Well it isn't just current students, it could be attractive for 30 years old struggling to get on the property ladder because a decent chunk of their wages go on the student loan repayments.
Nah, anyone in their 30s is on the older system of £1k or £3k fees. Most of us have paid off our loans. It's the early to mid 20s lot that have been royally fucked.
Even when the fees with £3k, loads of people took the full loan amount which was what ~£4-5k a year? Lots of those people have gone into jobs that don't pay much more than £24k a year and so even 10 years later they still have a decent chunk of a loan.
Possibly, I think the issue for them was that they didn't start repayments until £23k vs £18k for us, that extra £450 per year makes a difference. I think I had mine paid off when I was 27 but I only had £14k worth of loans.
The main issue is interest rates, partially the fact that inflation in the early years of 3k fees was very low, and partiallyven be paying off the interest each year. Just set the interest rate to be in line with CPI. Would solve a whole lot of problems and cost almost nothing - would mostly just tick down the write-off rate by a few points.
There is actually a really big problem at uni that no politician is talking about. Student accomodation, especially halls, used to be a really cheap way of living (especailly in a city). It is now more expensive than actually having a mortgage on a whole property in most places. Quite common for halls to cost £150-200 a week (even ones owned and operated by the uni), and also the cheeky sods do stuff like make the kids pay 40 odd weeks of the year even though they aren't there for that long.
Absolutely. Lots of universities seem to check what the maximum maintenance loan for that academic year is set at, then add £1000.
My first year halls were £260 for a 10 week term. The university now charges £1200 per term for the same halls, with apparently no refurbishment (looking at the state of the pictures on the website). This is in an area where private sector rents are about £150 per month for a houseshare.
It’s a masterclass in supply and demand, and the inflationary consequences of increasing the money supply...
Lab rail bribe won't work as no one who works hard votes LAB. Only benefit spongers illegal immigrants
As I have an occasional cheeky look at PB whilst I should be working I do wonder where some of the 24/7 Tory posters find the time to sign on at the Job Centre.
Takes time with all the Corbynistas in the queue. I'm retired but you will have already jumped to that conclusion.
Only LAB claim benefits all CON are ultra successful people like me 😊
For every middle class London commuter who is saving £1K a year under Labour's new plan, we could give someone on disability allowance £19 a week extra.
Go figure.
Corbyn's Labour is unbelievable.
I am lucky enough to earn a very decent salary - Labour will be after me if they win.
Yet they decide me and others like me should have our fares reduced paid for by others
For every middle class London commuter who is saving £1K a year under Labour's new plan, we could give someone on disability allowance £19 a week extra.
Lab rail bribe won't work as no one who works hard votes LAB. Only benefit spongers illegal immigrants
As I have an occasional cheeky look at PB whilst I should be working I do wonder where some of the 24/7 Tory posters find the time to sign on at the Job Centre.
Takes time with all the Corbynistas in the queue. I'm retired but you will have already jumped to that conclusion.
You weren't on my list of the idle and feckless. They are...
It was mentioned upthread, but if something was to happen to HM (heaven help us), then the election would be on December 27th.
That would be hellish, half the country would be away visiting people at the other end of the country.
It'd help the Tories marginally as postal votes would make up a greater portion of the turnout. I'd probably travel a hundred miles to cast my vote but lots won't.
The Twitter rumour purports to come from a leaked WhatsApp message from a Guardsman. It is almost certainly a hoax and nonsense, And I’m sure we all hope that, but in this day and age that would not shock me as a way for the story to break.
I am besides myself with anger over Labour's latest bribe to their metropolitan voter class. Clearly they have seen some polling that is shitting them about any voter who has to commute into London.
Yet nothing on disability benefits.
Despite the endless twitterings from Corbyn's minions on protecting the most unfortunate in society and evil Tory stuff.
Lib Dems are very low there, given the 42/33 for the two main parties. Another indication that Tories ceiling is 42%. It really comes down to if Labour can squeeze another 3-4%.
It was mentioned upthread, but if something was to happen to HM (heaven help us), then the election would be on December 27th.
That would be hellish, half the country would be away visiting people at the other end of the country.
In other words, dry your eye and vote before holidays or reset on 2nd or third week of January? Not a problem at all for Johnson to get tactical extension to end Feb on basis of such sad occurrence. More difficult for republican Corbyn to manage. But it doesn’t feel at all right even sensibly discussing this imo
If you asked commuters what they would prioritise - lower fares or a better service what would they choose? I reckon it is the service that triggers complaints about the fares, not the fares per se.
If you asked commuters what they would prioritise - lower fares or a better service what would they choose? I reckon it is the service that triggers complaints about the fares, not the fares per se.
Spot on. Would accept the annual increases if it clearly came with better service.
It was mentioned upthread, but if something was to happen to HM (heaven help us), then the election would be on December 27th.
That would be hellish, half the country would be away visiting people at the other end of the country.
It'd help the Tories marginally as postal votes would make up a greater portion of the turnout. I'd probably travel a hundred miles to cast my vote but lots won't.
I'm sure lots would welcome the chance to cast their own votes.
Lib Dems are very low there, given the 42/33 for the two main parties. Another indication that Tories ceiling is 42%. It really comes down to if Labour can squeeze another 3-4%.
These are exactly the kind of policies that will have people running away from Labour.
I honestly would have had more respect for Labour if they had just gone with UBI as their massive bung to the electorate. At least that in economic theory has some value.
It only really has value if the massive infrastructure around the complex benefits system that UBI could effectively replace is completely dismantled. Without that guarantee, not so much.
Like many Libertarians, I'm in favour of UBI *on this basis*. A system that costs £100.08 to pay a user £100 is obviously better than one that costs £250 or more for every £100 the recipient gets.
Introducing UBI as 'yet another benefit to add to the tangled mess' (which I believe is what the Lab/Green UBI would be) is a completely different kettle of twisted headphones.
Lib Dems are very low there, given the 42/33 for the two main parties. Another indication that Tories ceiling is 42%. It really comes down to if Labour can squeeze another 3-4%.
A half point swing from Con to lab would, seats wise, be more than compensated for by a 3 point swing from Lib to Con. Were I a Con, I'd like this poll very much with 10 campaigning days left. Also if I were on Labour in Hallam, I'd like this poll.
I am besides myself with anger over Labour's latest bribe to their metropolitan voter class. Clearly they have seen some polling that is shitting them about any voter who has to commute into London.
Yet nothing on disability benefits.
Despite the endless twitterings from Corbyn's minions on protecting the most unfortunate in society and evil Tory stuff.
Lib Dems are very low there, given the 42/33 for the two main parties. Another indication that Tories ceiling is 42%. It really comes down to if Labour can squeeze another 3-4%.
I'm trying to see where the extra comes from for Labour.
They need it in the Midlands/NW/NE and I just don't see the LD/Green vote being sizable in those areas.
I honestly would have had more respect for Labour if they had just gone with UBI as their massive bung to the electorate. At least that in economic theory has some value.
It only really has value if the massive infrastructure around the complex benefits system that UBI could effectively replace is completely dismantled. Without that guarantee, not so much.
Like many Libertarians, I'm in favour of UBI *on this basis*. A system that costs £100.08 to pay a user £100 is obviously better than one that costs £250 or more for every £100 the recipient gets.
Introducing UBI as 'yet another benefit to add to the tangled mess' (which I believe is what the Lab/Green UBI would be) is a completely different kettle of twisted headphones.
These are points I made up thread....and it is why I don't actually support UBI, because politicians will get involved and of course won't clamp down on immigration / elibibility and won't remove all the other benefits because of edge cases that will be worse off.
My point was that if Labour had just said, ok, we are going to be radical, we are going to introduce UBI, rather than all these scattergun bribes and self defeating policies such as rent caps, I would have more respect.
The Twitter rumour purports to come from a leaked WhatsApp message from a Guardsman. It is almost certainly a hoax and nonsense, And I’m sure we all hope that, but in this day and age that would not shock me as a way for the story to break.
Could you imagine the first act of the new king been to ask Mr Corbyn to form a government?
Lib Dems are very low there, given the 42/33 for the two main parties. Another indication that Tories ceiling is 42%. It really comes down to if Labour can squeeze another 3-4%.
I'm trying to see where the extra comes from for Labour.
They need it in the Midlands/NW/NE and I just don't see the LD/Green vote being sizable in those areas.
The Lib Dems are giving it a bloody good go at even incredibly shit. Also, Labour are clearly just going to keep the bungs coming.
Much as we might have expected with Lib Dems being squeezed a touch more than I’d like.
9 point gap with just over a week to go and with a Lab friendly pollster not to be sniffed at.
Reasons to be positive Francis:
Lab has a poor debate tonight Boris avoided any hiccups on Marr Labour rail policy easily countered and has huge flaws All polls show Labour in the same 30-34 zone. Boris and the Tories are (probably) stronger on recent huge subject of terrorism and justice
I am considerably more relaxed than I was last weekend.
The Twitter rumour purports to come from a leaked WhatsApp message from a Guardsman. It is almost certainly a hoax and nonsense, And I’m sure we all hope that, but in this day and age that would not shock me as a way for the story to break.
Could you imagine the first act of the new king been to ask Mr Corbyn to form a government?
The country could be quite different quite soon. New head of state, new head of government, Brexit/Lexit, Scots Independence, Irish Unity, Leeds in the Premier League. All seismic.
I got 23 on Betfair for Lib Dems between 5.0%-9.99%. Looking like a good bet in hindsight, but I still feel the Libs will be on around 12% when the votes are counted.
Lib Dems collapse is faster than an England cricket team...all they had to do was offer a second referendum on Boris deal and some sensible tax rises to fund public services.
Apols if this BBC news item appeared on PB.com earlier: "Bank of England governor Mark Carney has been appointed United Nations Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. Mr Carney will take up his new post once his term as governor ends on 31 January 2020."
So the new Governor will start work on the first day after Britain Brexits. What a hospital pass!
The Twitter rumour purports to come from a leaked WhatsApp message from a Guardsman. It is almost certainly a hoax and nonsense, And I’m sure we all hope that, but in this day and age that would not shock me as a way for the story to break.
Could you imagine the first act of the new king been to ask Mr Corbyn to form a government?
The country could be quite different quite soon. New head of state, new head of government, Brexit/Lexit, Scots Independence, Irish Unity, Leeds in the Premier League. All seismic.
I am besides myself with anger over Labour's latest bribe to their metropolitan voter class. Clearly they have seen some polling that is shitting them about any voter who has to commute into London.
Yet nothing on disability benefits.
Despite the endless twitterings from Corbyn's minions on protecting the most unfortunate in society and evil Tory stuff.
Or, more prosaically, they’re shitting themselves about how they are going to respond to the SWRail strikes commencing today?
Apols if this BBC news item appeared on PB.com earlier: "Bank of England governor Mark Carney has been appointed United Nations Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. Mr Carney will take up his new post once his term as governor ends on 31 January 2020."
So the new Governor will start work on the first day after Britain Brexits. What a hospital pass!
Is there a market in it? That being the case it has to be a current Deputy for continuity doesn’t it?
Tory lead in ELBOW down to 9.6% from 13.0% last Sunday!
10% Con lead with ELBOW with just over a week until polling day is pretty decent!
I bloody hope the Tories pull their finger out and really campaign hard / have something up their sleave.....and don't try and coast to the finish line.
Tory lead in ELBOW down to 9.6% from 13.0% last Sunday!
10% Con lead with ELBOW with just over a week until polling day is pretty decent!
I bloody hope the Tories pull their finger out and really campaign hard / have something up their sleave.....and don't try and coast to the finish line.
The last Survation was actually 41/30. Survation reporting Con +2. So looks like they may have rounded the change - eg gone from 40.7 to 42.3 so change is 1.6 which is rounded to 2.
From a quick look, 493 out of the total sample of 2,018 are aged 65+. Which is just under a quarter, ie ratio of pensioners/working age in sample is 1:3. Which is in line with the 12m:36m figures quoted by Bastani. Summary: Opinium's sample looks ok in this respect; Bastani either can't do basic maths or is lying.
Edit: the first few tabs have 350 and 351 out of 1,041 as being 65+. I'm not sure where these figures come from - the front page is clear that the poll is based on a sample of 2,018 people. Updated summary: Opinium might have screwed up their reporting.
Lib Dems collapse is faster than an England cricket team...all they had to do was offer a second referendum on Boris deal and some sensible tax rises to fund public services.
I may be offered £2m pa to be Watford manager. If LAB reduce my commute I can consider it 😊
Can you commit to the three months between Managers that Watford would require? Are they operating a YTS scheme for Managers. When the funding runs out they have to let them go.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1201273088756920320
https://twitter.com/JulietB270880/status/1201272808480870400
https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1200908705761570825
Go figure.
Corbyn's Labour is unbelievable.
Yet they decide me and others like me should have our fares reduced paid for by others
Absolutely bizarre
Yet nothing on disability benefits.
Despite the endless twitterings from Corbyn's minions on protecting the most unfortunate in society and evil Tory stuff.
Not a problem at all for Johnson to get tactical extension to end Feb on basis of such sad occurrence. More difficult for republican Corbyn to manage.
But it doesn’t feel at all right even sensibly discussing this imo
9 point gap with just over a week to go and with a Lab friendly pollster not to be sniffed at.
LDs in the toilet,
It only really has value if the massive infrastructure around the complex benefits system that UBI could effectively replace is completely dismantled. Without that guarantee, not so much.
Like many Libertarians, I'm in favour of UBI *on this basis*. A system that costs £100.08 to pay a user £100 is obviously better than one that costs £250 or more for every £100 the recipient gets.
Introducing UBI as 'yet another benefit to add to the tangled mess' (which I believe is what the Lab/Green UBI would be) is a completely different kettle of twisted headphones.
Also if I were on Labour in Hallam, I'd like this poll.
They need it in the Midlands/NW/NE and I just don't see the LD/Green vote being sizable in those areas.
My point was that if Labour had just said, ok, we are going to be radical, we are going to introduce UBI, rather than all these scattergun bribes and self defeating policies such as rent caps, I would have more respect.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1201258763828768770
Lab has a poor debate tonight
Boris avoided any hiccups on Marr
Labour rail policy easily countered and has huge flaws
All polls show Labour in the same 30-34 zone.
Boris and the Tories are (probably) stronger on recent huge subject of terrorism and justice
I am considerably more relaxed than I was last weekend.
And as I posted 5 mins ago LAB hold Sheffield Hallam!
Ave it knows best goodnight
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/12/01/new-role-for-hugh-grant-as-he-joins-luciana-berger-on-campaign-t/
Survation reporting Con +2. So looks like they may have rounded the change - eg gone from 40.7 to 42.3 so change is 1.6 which is rounded to 2.
He says optimistically.
Summary: Opinium's sample looks ok in this respect; Bastani either can't do basic maths or is lying.
Edit: the first few tabs have 350 and 351 out of 1,041 as being 65+. I'm not sure where these figures come from - the front page is clear that the poll is based on a sample of 2,018 people.
Updated summary: Opinium might have screwed up their reporting.