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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sheffield Hallam, a Labour hold?

Picture: The gateway to paradise
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https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
I'm not saying it will prove wrong here, just warning people who might be deceived.
any given radius of TSEerm, Sheffield Hallam.More seriously, I fully expected Labour to retake Cannock Chase in 2015.* Had the local candidate not been a certifiable lunatic who thought it was a really smart idea to campaign very energetically and visibly on the theme of ‘Save Mid Staffordshire NHS Trust’ I still think they would have done. So it isn’t quite a parallel example.
*They have no chance this time. They’re not even going through the motions,
They might be keeping it to reveal exclusively in the morning?
I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
But being high usually means they just forget to vote.
Or it might not. I don't see the same energy for Corbyn this time - but I see more energy to get the Tories out.
What an amazing talent. I hope he didn’t ruin it by going into politics or anything.
I did laugh
But, it won't deny scores of Tory gains of Labour seats in the Midlands and the North if that's on the cards already.
PaddyPower offering 3/10 on a Labour hold in Leicester East.
I think that's pretty good and I've had a good nibble.
I spent some time in Hull and a lot of the vote increase there came from uni students. At least in Hull, the vote was quite "local" and I suppose that was because the uni was quite local too. It might be a unique case of course, I don't know!
https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/01/guardian-moving-misjudged-editorial-complaints
Quite fair from Dale I would say, thoughts here?
In addition, some bookies, eg Betfair Sportsbook, have the LibDems as short as 1/4 to win the seat, so it would be a major shock should they fail to do so.
That being the case, why are we having this thread as if the outcome for this seat is on a knife edge?
The only debate worth watching is Boris v Corbyn
Meantime, the party of Trump is more of a cult than Corbyn’s Labour...
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/11/majority-republicans-trump-better-president-lincoln-poll.html
Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.
Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.
Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.
Burgon surprisingly better than I expected.
Farage obnoxious.
Sunak like a less charismatic Phil Hammond
Berry good
Price articulate and good communicator
Sturgeon swept the field. Pity the SNP aren't running in Leics.
Also, it's worth bearing in mind that not all young people want to keep the red flag flying here. Some in the target seats in the North and Midlands will be sympathetic to Boris's message.
Now, quite the big city trader it seems! 😉
If these seats are as close as MRP thinks, then students in the right places might make a difference, I really don't know.
I suspect the answer is ‘Not many,’ and even fewer will be the middle class graduates that Corbyn has such appeal to.
It's like saying very Tory over 75s turning out in huge numbers could make the difference to Tory prospects in Putney or Brighton Kemptown.
The main factor is the LDs are all spending most of their time in Chelmsford
Irritating that UK Polling Report continues to fail to keep its chronological listing of polling statistics, on the right-hand side of its front page, up to date. Currently this only shows data up to 18 November, i.e. two weeks ago. An abysmal effort really, especially during this crucial period. Anthony Wells needs to give the person responsible a good kick up the bottom, assuming it's a bloke responsible.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
Rishi was like an over enthusiastic head boy who’d been drilled on the three key phrases he’s got to say, and he did. With a bit of luck he’ll grow. Swinson and Berry came across as sincere but dull.....and by a country mile Burgon was easily the worst.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-liberal-democrat-leader
Probably Wikipedia is the best place for poll listings now
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
They're also the age cohort that is least likely to vote. Using YouGov turnout estimates for 2017, I'd therefore estimate the 18-24 age group as constituting about 9% of all those who turn out to vote, and 18-24 year olds in full-time education as only 3% of actual voters.
So yes, this group could be very important in seats with a disproportionate concentration of university students (assuming that they also vote in the constituency where they are educated rather than that in which their families reside,) but elsewhere in the country the value of the youth vote should be very limited.
In the case of Wokingham, Baxter gives the Tory a 7% lead over the LibDem candidate and the bookies make the Tory a 1/4 or 1/5 short-priced favourite.
If the Blue Team lose the likes of Wokingham, Corbyn's in Downing Street ... that's for sure.