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SystemSystem Posts: 12,592
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sheffield Hallam, a Labour hold?

Picture: The gateway to paradise

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,299
    edited December 2019
    I hope not, nailed on LD gain!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,097
    Yougov MRP Sheffield Hallam LDs 37% Labour 30%

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,750
    Was in Oxford and the villages around it like Wallingford this weekend. A few Lib Dem diamonds but apart from that you would hardly know an election was in less than 2 weeks.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,249
    Dore & Totley, passed through it many a time when doing the railways of The North :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    TSE, do your duty.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,480
    A QTWTAIN as a thread?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Good luck to the Lib Dem there - every Labour loss gives me hope that the Corbynistas might be purged.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov MRP Sheffield Hallam LDs 37% Labour 30%

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    That's not a constituency poll though. It's an MRP extrapolation based on an 11% Conservative lead.

    I'm not saying it will prove wrong here, just warning people who might be deceived.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1201245316495953930
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,100
    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    edited December 2019
    I am amazed to learn there are 72 virgins within any given radius of TSE erm, Sheffield Hallam.
    More seriously, I fully expected Labour to retake Cannock Chase in 2015.* Had the local candidate not been a certifiable lunatic who thought it was a really smart idea to campaign very energetically and visibly on the theme of ‘Save Mid Staffordshire NHS Trust’ I still think they would have done. So it isn’t quite a parallel example.
    *They have no chance this time. They’re not even going through the motions,
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    No sign of the Survation/GMB poll?

    They might be keeping it to reveal exclusively in the morning?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,509
    "A terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tor....oh - the LibDems? Really? That bad....?"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,304
    Mysticrose said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov MRP Sheffield Hallam LDs 37% Labour 30%

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    That's not a constituency poll though. It's an MRP extrapolation based on an 11% Conservative lead.
    I'm not saying it will prove wrong here, just warning people who might be deceived.
    Quite a young and student Constituency surely?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Gallowgate said:

    Was in Oxford and the villages around it like Wallingford this weekend. A few Lib Dem diamonds but apart from that you would hardly know an election was in less than 2 weeks.

    I have decent bets on 60-65% and under 60% turnout. Feeling fairly happy about them at the moment, especially with some deteriorating weather (sadly though as I like democracy!).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,249
    GIN1138 said:

    No sign of the Survation/GMB poll?

    They might be keeping it to reveal exclusively in the morning?

    Maybe 10pm? (fingers crossed!)
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    If LDs dont regain Sheffield Hallam Swinson has really shit her pot full
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    He gives them as an example. It'd be interesting to see which of the others do that.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    He gives them as an example. It'd be interesting to see which of the others do that.
    Agree - to the floor!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,249
    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,859
    edited December 2019
    I don't think most people have a clue who the candidates are, they're either voting for Boris or voting for Corbyn.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    Students are always high. It’s one of the few perks of being constantly broke and paying for the privilege of working hard.
    But being high usually means they just forget to vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Nice new picture, @Puplstar
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
    That was a bad pun, but TBF it was starting from a low base.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    I've been shouted at here a bit but my experience overhearing conversations is there is a big drive to kick the Tories out by whichever way they can. In general it seems as though students are more likely to tactically vote so it might make a difference.
    Or it might not. I don't see the same energy for Corbyn this time - but I see more energy to get the Tories out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,859
    RobD said:

    Nice new picture, @Puplstar

    It's my biggest ever constituency bet :o - Keith Vaz will be sadly missed.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    ydoethur said:

    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    Students are always high. It’s one of the few perks of being constantly broke and paying for the privilege of working hard.
    But being high usually means they just forget to vote.
    Zing - have you ever thought of HIGNFY?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    Foxy said:

    Mysticrose said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov MRP Sheffield Hallam LDs 37% Labour 30%

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    That's not a constituency poll though. It's an MRP extrapolation based on an 11% Conservative lead.
    I'm not saying it will prove wrong here, just warning people who might be deceived.
    Quite a young and student Constituency surely?
    Nah students mainly Sheffield Central
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    I’m not a psephologist but I am a physicist. I would always advise against drawing bits of conclusions from parts of a methodology.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,304
    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
    That was a bad pun, but TBF it was starting from a low base.
    It was a pun suitable for four seasons. Quattro Staglioni one might say in Italy.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Time_to_Leave said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    I’m not a psephologist but I am a physicist. I would always advise against drawing bits of conclusions from parts of a methodology.
    Thanks for your insight
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    edited December 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    Students are always high. It’s one of the few perks of being constantly broke and paying for the privilege of working hard.
    But being high usually means they just forget to vote.
    Zing - have you ever thought of HIGNFY?
    I think I would have to admit I could not possibly compete with this comic genius: https://youtu.be/asas49ZLa98
    What an amazing talent. I hope he didn’t ruin it by going into politics or anything.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,509
    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
    That was a bad pun, but TBF it was starting from a low base.
    You're gonna get deeply panned for that.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,249
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
    That was a bad pun, but TBF it was starting from a low base.
    Labour won't be "topping" the poll?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    MarqueeMark said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
    That was a bad pun, but TBF it was starting from a low base.
    You're gonna get deeply panned for that.
    Several people have already indicated they are cheesed off.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1201248950151450624

    I did laugh
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,808
    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    It will be high in campuses and university seats. And it will help Labour to hold there.

    But, it won't deny scores of Tory gains of Labour seats in the Midlands and the North if that's on the cards already.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Well, you just blunder in. For instance I cooked an Hawaiian pizza last night using pineapple from Costa Rica.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,733
    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    Anecdotally, I canvassed a couple of students in different houses in Portsmouth who both said in similar terms that they weren't that interested but most of their friends were voting Labour so they supposed they would too. I don't from my personal experience get the impression of a huge student turnout, though - I spoke at a meeting of Labour students in the University of Surrey, and attendance was about a dozen. The most reliable Labour voters by a long chalk seem to be younger women, often apparently due to intense dislike of Boris.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
    That was a bad pun, but TBF it was starting from a low base.
    You're gonna get deeply panned for that.
    Several people have already indicated they are cheesed off.
    You takiing the pizza again/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,808
    @Pulpstar

    PaddyPower offering 3/10 on a Labour hold in Leicester East.

    I think that's pretty good and I've had a good nibble.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,509
    Gallowgate said:

    Was in Oxford and the villages around it like Wallingford this weekend. A few Lib Dem diamonds but apart from that you would hardly know an election was in less than 2 weeks.

    Around Wallingford is Wantage constituency (17k majority over Labour) and Henley (22k). Not much excitment there.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
    That was a bad pun, but TBF it was starting from a low base.
    You're gonna get deeply panned for that.
    Several people have already indicated they are cheesed off.
    You takiing the pizza again/
    If you wanted to join our contest, Urine.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,859
    Casino_Royale said:

    @Pulpstar

    PaddyPower offering 3/10 on a Labour hold in Leicester East.

    I think that's pretty good and I've had a good nibble.

    It's superb. I'd be limited to tuppence ha'penny at Paddy (Had my fill at the exchange) though so get stuck in.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019
    Casino_Royale said:

    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    It will be high in campuses and university seats. And it will help Labour to hold there.

    But, it won't deny scores of Tory gains of Labour seats in the Midlands and the North if that's on the cards already.
    It depends if those students have gone home, or where they choose to vote, at least in some cases, I would think?
    I spent some time in Hull and a lot of the vote increase there came from uni students. At least in Hull, the vote was quite "local" and I suppose that was because the uni was quite local too. It might be a unique case of course, I don't know!
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    Anybody know what this is about?
    https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/01/guardian-moving-misjudged-editorial-complaints
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1201248950151450624

    I did laugh

    Poor old Dougal. Ten times the intellect of Richard Burgon.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Anybody know what this is about?
    https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/01/guardian-moving-misjudged-editorial-complaints

    Isn't that about the opinion piece the newspaper put out saying Cameron didn't care about the death of his son?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1201250301380120579

    Quite fair from Dale I would say, thoughts here?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    FWIW Baxter has the LibDems 10.6% ahead of Labour in respect of their respective shares of the vote.
    In addition, some bookies, eg Betfair Sportsbook, have the LibDems as short as 1/4 to win the seat, so it would be a major shock should they fail to do so.
    That being the case, why are we having this thread as if the outcome for this seat is on a knife edge?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1201250301380120579

    Quite fair from Dale I would say, thoughts here?

    Well, ‘better than expected’ is to put it mildly damning Burgon with faint praise.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,750
    MarqueeMark said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Was in Oxford and the villages around it like Wallingford this weekend. A few Lib Dem diamonds but apart from that you would hardly know an election was in less than 2 weeks.

    Around Wallingford is Wantage constituency (17k majority over Labour) and Henley (22k). Not much excitment there.....
    Wantage could go Lib Dem according to the YouGov MRP.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    RobD said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Anybody know what this is about?
    https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/01/guardian-moving-misjudged-editorial-complaints

    Isn't that about the opinion piece the newspaper put out saying Cameron didn't care about the death of his son?
    That is pretty appalling.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,261
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1201250301380120579

    Quite fair from Dale I would say, thoughts here?

    No idea. I refuse to waste an hour of my time with these debates. Pointless

    The only debate worth watching is Boris v Corbyn
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    peter_from_putney said:

    FWIW Baxter has the LibDems 10.6% ahead of Labour in respect of their respective shares of the vote

    I thought for a really remarkable moment that you meant countrywide.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,589
    ydoethur said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1201250301380120579

    Quite fair from Dale I would say, thoughts here?

    Well, ‘better than expected’ is to put it mildly damning Burgon with faint praise.
    A load of utter Bs seemsa fair judgment.

    Meantime, the party of Trump is more of a cult than Corbyn’s Labour...
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/11/majority-republicans-trump-better-president-lincoln-poll.html
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,750
    @Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,589
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
    That was a bad pun, but TBF it was starting from a low base.
    You're gonna get deeply panned for that.
    Several people have already indicated they are cheesed off.
    You takiing the pizza again/
    If you wanted to join our contest, Urine.
    Go with the flow.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    Gallowgate said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.

    Mr Gallowgate, on a point of order, that remark is unfair to morons,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,589
    ydoethur said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.

    Mr Gallowgate, on a point of order, that remark is unfair to morons,
    Indeed. Many of them are honest.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,261
    Gallowgate said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.

    No argument with that comment either
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,808
    I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).

    Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.

    Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.

    Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Casino_Royale said:

    I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).

    Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.

    Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.

    Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.

    You should have popped in for a chat!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,304
    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
    That was a bad pun, but TBF it was starting from a low base.
    You're gonna get deeply panned for that.
    Several people have already indicated they are cheesed off.
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1201250301380120579

    Quite fair from Dale I would say, thoughts here?

    Swinson did quite well on the EU deal and on mental health too. Less convincing on the Sindyref3.
    Burgon surprisingly better than I expected.
    Farage obnoxious.
    Sunak like a less charismatic Phil Hammond
    Berry good
    Price articulate and good communicator
    Sturgeon swept the field. Pity the SNP aren't running in Leics.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,808
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    It will be high in campuses and university seats. And it will help Labour to hold there.

    But, it won't deny scores of Tory gains of Labour seats in the Midlands and the North if that's on the cards already.
    It depends if those students have gone home, or where they choose to vote, at least in some cases, I would think?
    I spent some time in Hull and a lot of the vote increase there came from uni students. At least in Hull, the vote was quite "local" and I suppose that was because the uni was quite local too. It might be a unique case of course, I don't know!
    Students voting in constituencies across the UK will have a rather diluted effect.

    Also, it's worth bearing in mind that not all young people want to keep the red flag flying here. Some in the target seats in the North and Midlands will be sympathetic to Boris's message.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,509
    peter_from_putney said:

    FWIW Baxter has the LibDems 10.6% ahead of Labour in respect of their respective shares of the vote.
    In addition, some bookies, eg Betfair Sportsbook, have the LibDems as short as 1/4 to win the seat, so it would be a major shock should they fail to do so.
    That being the case, why are we having this thread as if the outcome for this seat is on a knife edge?

    Because Boris' majority is so certain there's nothing else to talk about?

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Gallowgate said:

    Was in Oxford and the villages around it like Wallingford this weekend. A few Lib Dem diamonds but apart from that you would hardly know an election was in less than 2 weeks.

    I drove around the villages here, northwest of Oxford, today. Astonishing number of LD diamonds. And I say that even as someone who has one in my own front window... I’ve never known the poster war here be so dominated by one party.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,808
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    @Pulpstar

    PaddyPower offering 3/10 on a Labour hold in Leicester East.

    I think that's pretty good and I've had a good nibble.

    It's superb. I'd be limited to tuppence ha'penny at Paddy (Had my fill at the exchange) though so get stuck in.
    I had you in my mind as a man of limited means!

    Now, quite the big city trader it seems! 😉
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Casino_Royale said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    It will be high in campuses and university seats. And it will help Labour to hold there.

    But, it won't deny scores of Tory gains of Labour seats in the Midlands and the North if that's on the cards already.
    It depends if those students have gone home, or where they choose to vote, at least in some cases, I would think?
    I spent some time in Hull and a lot of the vote increase there came from uni students. At least in Hull, the vote was quite "local" and I suppose that was because the uni was quite local too. It might be a unique case of course, I don't know!
    Students voting in constituencies across the UK will have a rather diluted effect.

    Also, it's worth bearing in mind that not all young people want to keep the red flag flying here. Some in the target seats in the North and Midlands will be sympathetic to Boris's message.
    I will be genuinely astonished if the youth vote is higher for the Tories this time.
    If these seats are as close as MRP thinks, then students in the right places might make a difference, I really don't know.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,509
    ydoethur said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1201250301380120579

    Quite fair from Dale I would say, thoughts here?

    Well, ‘better than expected’ is to put it mildly damning Burgon with faint praise.
    Didn't watch it (enjoyed Local Hero again instead) but if Swinson ranked lower than Burgon.....eeek?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    squareroot2 said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, do your duty.

    How do you work Hawaiian pizza into.this one?
    Trust you to ham it up.
    I'm sure TSE would love to get a pizza the action?
    That was a bad pun, but TBF it was starting from a low base.
    You're gonna get deeply panned for that.
    Several people have already indicated they are cheesed off.
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1201250301380120579

    Quite fair from Dale I would say, thoughts here?

    Swinson did quite well on the EU deal and on mental health too. Less convincing on the Sindyref3.
    Burgon surprisingly better than I expected.
    Farage obnoxious.
    Sunak like a less charismatic Phil Hammond
    Berry good
    Price articulate and good communicator
    Sturgeon swept the field. Pity the SNP aren't running in Leics.

    I expected Burgon to be a complete car crash, he was okay.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,808
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    It will be high in campuses and university seats. And it will help Labour to hold there.

    But, it won't deny scores of Tory gains of Labour seats in the Midlands and the North if that's on the cards already.
    It depends if those students have gone home, or where they choose to vote, at least in some cases, I would think?
    I spent some time in Hull and a lot of the vote increase there came from uni students. At least in Hull, the vote was quite "local" and I suppose that was because the uni was quite local too. It might be a unique case of course, I don't know!
    Students voting in constituencies across the UK will have a rather diluted effect.

    Also, it's worth bearing in mind that not all young people want to keep the red flag flying here. Some in the target seats in the North and Midlands will be sympathetic to Boris's message.
    I will be genuinely astonished if the youth vote is higher for the Tories this time.
    If these seats are as close as MRP thinks, then students in the right places might make a difference, I really don't know.
    You can make a case for a 100-200 vote being swung by almost anyone but Bishop Auckland, Redcar, Leith, Hartlepool and Dudley North are not Canterbury.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,808
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).

    Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.

    Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.

    Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.

    You should have popped in for a chat!
    Where do you reside?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Casino_Royale said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).

    Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.

    Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.

    Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.

    You should have popped in for a chat!
    Where do you reside?
    Not far from Farnham
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Casino_Royale said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    It will be high in campuses and university seats. And it will help Labour to hold there.

    But, it won't deny scores of Tory gains of Labour seats in the Midlands and the North if that's on the cards already.
    It depends if those students have gone home, or where they choose to vote, at least in some cases, I would think?
    I spent some time in Hull and a lot of the vote increase there came from uni students. At least in Hull, the vote was quite "local" and I suppose that was because the uni was quite local too. It might be a unique case of course, I don't know!
    Students voting in constituencies across the UK will have a rather diluted effect.

    Also, it's worth bearing in mind that not all young people want to keep the red flag flying here. Some in the target seats in the North and Midlands will be sympathetic to Boris's message.
    I will be genuinely astonished if the youth vote is higher for the Tories this time.
    If these seats are as close as MRP thinks, then students in the right places might make a difference, I really don't know.
    You can make a case for a 100-200 vote being swung by almost anyone but Bishop Auckland, Redcar, Leith, Hartlepool and Dudley North are not Canterbury.
    They aren't Canterbury - but I don't see why higher youth turnout in those seats couldn't also make a difference.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    It will be high in campuses and university seats. And it will help Labour to hold there.

    But, it won't deny scores of Tory gains of Labour seats in the Midlands and the North if that's on the cards already.
    It depends if those students have gone home, or where they choose to vote, at least in some cases, I would think?
    I spent some time in Hull and a lot of the vote increase there came from uni students. At least in Hull, the vote was quite "local" and I suppose that was because the uni was quite local too. It might be a unique case of course, I don't know!
    Students voting in constituencies across the UK will have a rather diluted effect.

    Also, it's worth bearing in mind that not all young people want to keep the red flag flying here. Some in the target seats in the North and Midlands will be sympathetic to Boris's message.
    I will be genuinely astonished if the youth vote is higher for the Tories this time.
    If these seats are as close as MRP thinks, then students in the right places might make a difference, I really don't know.
    You can make a case for a 100-200 vote being swung by almost anyone but Bishop Auckland, Redcar, Leith, Hartlepool and Dudley North are not Canterbury.
    They aren't Canterbury - but I don't see why higher youth turnout in those seats couldn't also make a difference.
    What are the demographics in those seats. If we are talking about an increase in turnout of 5% amongst a group of people that constitutes 5% of the electorate, that's a small effect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,097
    edited December 2019
    Casino_Royale said:

    I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).

    Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.

    Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.

    Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.

    Well I can tell you today we have 10 Tory and Laing posters up in Epping and not a single LD one, despite the fact half the Epping councillors are LDs
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,299
    Gallowgate said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.

    Johnson will have to cancel that one too if his 'dickery' over the thoughtless use of 'leftie' in such tragic circumstances gains traction. As the day rolls on his heartlessness is making me angrier and angrier. The young lady, Saskia Jones is the same age as my children, that thought cuts deep.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,457
    edited December 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    You can make a case for a 100-200 vote being swung by almost anyone but Bishop Auckland, Redcar, Leith, Hartlepool and Dudley North are not Canterbury.

    They aren't Canterbury - but I don't see why higher youth turnout in those seats couldn't also make a difference.
    How many ‘young’ people (mid twenties) are there in Bishop Auckland or Hartlepool?
    I suspect the answer is ‘Not many,’ and even fewer will be the middle class graduates that Corbyn has such appeal to.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,808
    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).

    Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.

    Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.

    Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.

    Well I can tell you today we have 10 Tory and Laing posters up in Epping and not a single LD one, despite the fact half the Epping councillors are LDs
    Heavens. Have you done a crystalnacht on them?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,808
    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Mysticrose said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Turnout stuff is interesting, re that comment from Faisal. BMG is currently showing the lowest lead right? Which if they are assuming turnout will be higher for the youth bracket based on registrations, would seem to make sense. Of course if they don't turn out they'll be very wrong.

    There has been a massive recruitment drive on the campuses. Someone I know said big pressure was brought to bear and it includes peer pressure via social media.

    I expect the youth vote to be pretty high.
    It will be high in campuses and university seats. And it will help Labour to hold there.

    But, it won't deny scores of Tory gains of Labour seats in the Midlands and the North if that's on the cards already.
    It depends if those students have gone home, or where they choose to vote, at least in some cases, I would think?
    I spent some time in Hull and a lot of the vote increase there came from uni students. At least in Hull, the vote was quite "local" and I suppose that was because the uni was quite local too. It might be a unique case of course, I don't know!
    Students voting in constituencies across the UK will have a rather diluted effect.

    Also, it's worth bearing in mind that not all young people want to keep the red flag flying here. Some in the target seats in the North and Midlands will be sympathetic to Boris's message.
    I will be genuinely astonished if the youth vote is higher for the Tories this time.
    If these seats are as close as MRP thinks, then students in the right places might make a difference, I really don't know.
    You can make a case for a 100-200 vote being swung by almost anyone but Bishop Auckland, Redcar, Leith, Hartlepool and Dudley North are not Canterbury.
    They aren't Canterbury - but I don't see why higher youth turnout in those seats couldn't also make a difference.
    What are the demographics in those seats. If we are talking about an increase in turnout of 5% amongst a group of people that constitutes 5% of the electorate, that's a small effect.
    Precisely. It would negligible rather than decisive.

    It's like saying very Tory over 75s turning out in huge numbers could make the difference to Tory prospects in Putney or Brighton Kemptown.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,097
    Casino_Royale said:

    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).

    Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.

    Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.

    Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.

    Well I can tell you today we have 10 Tory and Laing posters up in Epping and not a single LD one, despite the fact half the Epping councillors are LDs
    Heavens. Have you done a crystalnacht on them?
    Sadly no, despite being Epping campaign manager even I am not quite that ruthless.

    The main factor is the LDs are all spending most of their time in Chelmsford
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    Casino_Royale said:

    I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).

    Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.

    Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.

    Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.

    Have been across to Argyll & Bute three times (to Cowal and Bute) during the campaign and noticed lots of the lamppost placards (Lib Dem and SNP). In contrast, I have seen absolutely sod all in Inverclyde and central Glasgow.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    O/T
    Irritating that UK Polling Report continues to fail to keep its chronological listing of polling statistics, on the right-hand side of its front page, up to date. Currently this only shows data up to 18 November, i.e. two weeks ago. An abysmal effort really, especially during this crucial period. Anthony Wells needs to give the person responsible a good kick up the bottom, assuming it's a bloke responsible.
  • GoupillonGoupillon Posts: 79
    If you want to see Lib Dem posters in abundance visit Wokingham the soon to be ex MP John Redwood's constituency,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,589
    Mexicanpete said:

    Gallowgate said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.

    Johnson will have to cancel that one too if his 'dickery' over the thoughtless use of 'leftie' in such tragic circumstances gains traction. As the day rolls on his heartlessness is making me angrier and angrier. The young lady, Saskia Jones is the same age as my children, that thought cuts deep.
    I have been busy this weekend, and missed that completely - what did he say ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Goupillon said:

    If you want to see Lib Dem posters in abundance visit Wokingham the soon to be ex MP John Redwood's constituency,

    Pedant mode, but he is already an ex-MP. ;)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,299
    edited December 2019
    Goupillon said:

    If you want to see Lib Dem posters in abundance visit Wokingham the soon to be ex MP John Redwood's constituency,

    Tragically, the reality is you have just woken up and have remembered a very satisfying, if extremely implausible dream.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Out of interest, is anywhere offering odds on next LD leader?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,097
    Goupillon said:

    If you want to see Lib Dem posters in abundance visit Wokingham the soon to be ex MP John Redwood's constituency,

    YouGov MRP has Redwood still ahead in Wokingham on 46% to 36% for the LDs

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited December 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1201250301380120579

    Quite fair from Dale I would say, thoughts here?

    I agree Sturgeon was a bit off her game - but that only made her “better” than the others, rather than “much better” which is usually where we are. Farage did his “bloke down the pub” shtik well and Price also “spoke human”.
    Rishi was like an over enthusiastic head boy who’d been drilled on the three key phrases he’s got to say, and he did. With a bit of luck he’ll grow. Swinson and Berry came across as sincere but dull.....and by a country mile Burgon was easily the worst.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,097
    El_Capitano said:

    Out of interest, is anywhere offering odds on next LD leader?

    Chuka 2/1 favourite, then Layla Moran at 3/1, Luciana Berger at 8/1 and Ed Davey at 10/1
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-liberal-democrat-leader
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,304
    initforthemoney said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).

    Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.

    Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.

    Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.

    Have been across to Argyll & Bute three times (to Cowal and Bute) during the campaign and noticed lots of the lamppost placards (Lib Dem and SNP). In contrast, I have seen absolutely sod all in Inverclyde and central Glasgow.
    Quite a few Lab posters up in Leicester South for John Ashworth, and a big posse of canvassers for Lab there too. I haven't seen any for Webbe in Leicester East though. Possibly only how local parties spend their budget rather than more significant.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,733
    CorrectHorseBattery said:


    Not far from Farnham

    Another Surrey SW resident?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    peter_from_putney said:

    O/T
    Irritating that UK Polling Report continues to fail to keep its chronological listing of polling statistics, on the right-hand side of its front page, up to date. Currently this only shows data up to 18 November, i.e. two weeks ago. An abysmal effort really, especially during this crucial period. Anthony Wells needs to give the person responsible a good kick up the bottom, assuming it's a bloke responsible.

    Used to be fantastic back in the day, some brilliant seat profiles and comments that I used in 2005 and 2010.

    Probably Wikipedia is the best place for poll listings now

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Casino_Royale said:

    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    They aren't Canterbury - but I don't see why higher youth turnout in those seats couldn't also make a difference.

    What are the demographics in those seats. If we are talking about an increase in turnout of 5% amongst a group of people that constitutes 5% of the electorate, that's a small effect.
    Precisely. It would negligible rather than decisive.

    It's like saying very Tory over 75s turning out in huge numbers could make the difference to Tory prospects in Putney or Brighton Kemptown.
    I've done a quick set of back-of-the-fag-packet calculations and estimated that just over 11% of the electorate are aged 18-24. Only about a third of those are in full-time education, which puts the student electorate at a little under 4% of all voters.

    They're also the age cohort that is least likely to vote. Using YouGov turnout estimates for 2017, I'd therefore estimate the 18-24 age group as constituting about 9% of all those who turn out to vote, and 18-24 year olds in full-time education as only 3% of actual voters.

    So yes, this group could be very important in seats with a disproportionate concentration of university students (assuming that they also vote in the constituency where they are educated rather than that in which their families reside,) but elsewhere in the country the value of the youth vote should be very limited.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Goupillon said:

    If you want to see Lib Dem posters in abundance visit Wokingham the soon to be ex MP John Redwood's constituency,

    Not too dissimilar from Sheffield Hallam, obviously with different parties involved.
    In the case of Wokingham, Baxter gives the Tory a 7% lead over the LibDem candidate and the bookies make the Tory a 1/4 or 1/5 short-priced favourite.
    If the Blue Team lose the likes of Wokingham, Corbyn's in Downing Street ... that's for sure.
This discussion has been closed.

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