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  • Trying to find out who has been distributing the neutral leaflets in Ashfield so I can help. No luck yet
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    I honestly would have had more respect for Labour if they had just gone with UBI as their massive bung to the electorate. At least that in economic theory has some value.


    It only really has value if the massive infrastructure around the complex benefits system that UBI could effectively replace is completely dismantled. Without that guarantee, not so much.

    Like many Libertarians, I'm in favour of UBI *on this basis*. A system that costs £100.08 to pay a user £100 is obviously better than one that costs £250 or more for every £100 the recipient gets.

    Introducing UBI as 'yet another benefit to add to the tangled mess' (which I believe is what the Lab/Green UBI would be) is a completely different kettle of twisted headphones.
    These are points I made up thread....and it is why I don't actually support UBI, because politicians will get involved and of course won't clamp down on immigration / elibibility and won't remove all the other benefits because of edge cases that will be worse off.

    My point was that if Labour had just said, ok, we are going to be radical, we are going to introduce UBI, rather than all these scattergun bribes and self defeating policies such as rent caps, I would have more respect.
    What’s additionally incredible about all these ridiculous Labour policies and bribes is that they are apparently going to deliver a large number of them on a timescale of weeks to months. Without any acknowledgement of the legislative and administrative challenges of what they are proposing. “Abolish universal credit immediately”. To be replaced by... what? “Ban zero hours contracts” - ditto. It goes on....

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    No MORI poll in last week may have created minor distortion as MORI normally very good for Con.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:
    Let's have a referendum on whether that's positive or negative for LB
  • Re. Bastani: I guess he’s saying that two thirds is less than three quarters (36/48). But then turnout is traditionally higher among retirees so maybe it’s neither here nor there...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    I may be offered £2m pa to be Watford manager. If LAB reduce my commute I can consider it 😊

    Can you commit to the three months between Managers that Watford would require? Are they operating a YTS scheme for Managers. When the funding runs out they have to let them go.
    For £500,000 yes please! And I will forgo a win bonus. Not sure that's a real loss!

    Our priority now is not to be playing league 1 2021/2 😠
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:

    camel said:

    The Twitter rumour purports to come from a leaked WhatsApp message from a Guardsman. It is almost certainly a hoax and nonsense, And I’m sure we all hope that, but in this day and age that would not shock me as a way for the story to break.

    Could you imagine the first act of the new king been to ask Mr Corbyn to form a government?
    The country could be quite different quite soon. New head of state, new head of government, Brexit/Lexit, Scots Independence, Irish Unity, Leeds in the Premier League. All seismic.
    Or none of that at all (bar Brexit)
    Aren't Leeds looking good?
  • alex_ said:

    I honestly would have had more respect for Labour if they had just gone with UBI as their massive bung to the electorate. At least that in economic theory has some value.


    It only really has value if the massive infrastructure around the complex benefits system that UBI could effectively replace is completely dismantled. Without that guarantee, not so much.

    Like many Libertarians, I'm in favour of UBI *on this basis*. A system that costs £100.08 to pay a user £100 is obviously better than one that costs £250 or more for every £100 the recipient gets.

    Introducing UBI as 'yet another benefit to add to the tangled mess' (which I believe is what the Lab/Green UBI would be) is a completely different kettle of twisted headphones.
    These are points I made up thread....and it is why I don't actually support UBI, because politicians will get involved and of course won't clamp down on immigration / elibibility and won't remove all the other benefits because of edge cases that will be worse off.

    My point was that if Labour had just said, ok, we are going to be radical, we are going to introduce UBI, rather than all these scattergun bribes and self defeating policies such as rent caps, I would have more respect.
    What’s additionally incredible about all these ridiculous Labour policies and bribes is that they are apparently going to deliver a large number of them on a timescale of weeks to months. Without any acknowledgement of the legislative and administrative challenges of what they are proposing. “Abolish universal credit immediately”. To be replaced by... what? “Ban zero hours contracts” - ditto. It goes on....

    Well many of them aren't even legal...especially not if we are still in the EU.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:
    10 days before election 2017, Survation/GMB had it Tories 43% Labour 37% LDs 8%
    https://www.facebook.com/borisjohnson/videos/587526021996770/
    Could still be LAB biggest party!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Floater said:

    Can someone explain this? It is late, Blue Nun late, but I reckon the % splits are correct and Bastani is wrong

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1201258763828768770

    Bastani must translate to something
    complete knob head?
    I knew there had to be something but ......
  • MikeL said:

    Con Maj drifts from 1.5 to 1.54 on Survation - not sure Survation warrants that - it's very much in line with consensus.

    Unless something else is causing it? Somebody has seen early data of tomorrow's polls?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    MikeL said:

    The last Survation was actually 41/30.
    Survation reporting Con +2. So looks like they may have rounded the change - eg gone from 40.7 to 42.3 so change is 1.6 which is rounded to 2.

    This one is 42.3 32.9, last was 40.7 29.7.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I fear Hacked Off Hugh will have an "Eddie Izzard Effect" on Luciana's campaign. :(
    Which colour suits Hugh best>
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Maybe LAB go 8 points clear soon
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    If a party makes a campaign pledge not included in their manifesto are they bound by it? Or is the point that it doesn’t fall within the (name I can’t recall) convention in the House of Lords?
  • alex_ said:

    If a party makes a campaign pledge not included in their manifesto are they bound by it? Or is the point that it doesn’t fall within the (name I can’t recall) convention in the House of Lords?

    Salisbury?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    alex_ said:

    I honestly would have had more respect for Labour if they had just gone with UBI as their massive bung to the electorate. At least that in economic theory has some value.


    It only really has value if the massive infrastructure around the complex benefits system that UBI could effectively replace is completely dismantled. Without that guarantee, not so much.

    Like many Libertarians, I'm in favour of UBI *on this basis*. A system that costs £100.08 to pay a user £100 is obviously better than one that costs £250 or more for every £100 the recipient gets.

    Introducing UBI as 'yet another benefit to add to the tangled mess' (which I believe is what the Lab/Green UBI would be) is a completely different kettle of twisted headphones.
    These are points I made up thread....and it is why I don't actually support UBI, because politicians will get involved and of course won't clamp down on immigration / elibibility and won't remove all the other benefits because of edge cases that will be worse off.

    My point was that if Labour had just said, ok, we are going to be radical, we are going to introduce UBI, rather than all these scattergun bribes and self defeating policies such as rent caps, I would have more respect.
    What’s additionally incredible about all these ridiculous Labour policies and bribes is that they are apparently going to deliver a large number of them on a timescale of weeks to months. Without any acknowledgement of the legislative and administrative challenges of what they are proposing. “Abolish universal credit immediately”. To be replaced by... what? “Ban zero hours contracts” - ditto. It goes on....

    Well many of them aren't even legal...especially not if we are still in the EU.
    You believe Jezza and Seamus want to remain?

    LOL
  • In graphical form: All 11 polls with field-work end-dates Monday 25th to Sunday 1st.

    Con 42.6%
    Lab 32.9%
    LD 13.1%
    BXP 3.5%
    SNP 3.5%
    GRN 3.0%
    oth 1.6%

    Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/1201298365235023876
  • Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)


    7% by end of next week....4% by GE....
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Ave_it said:

    Con certain to gain Carshalton, Norfolk N, Westmoreland possibly Caithness, and PC world OxWab 😊

    Dont bank.on Carshalton

    Brake has an.amazing ability to.hang on against the run of play.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)


    7% by end of next week....4% by GE....
    Riiight
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    Endillion said:

    Can someone explain this? It is late, Blue Nun late, but I reckon the % splits are correct and Bastani is wrong

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1201258763828768770

    From a quick look, 493 out of the total sample of 2,018 are aged 65+. Which is just under a quarter, ie ratio of pensioners/working age in sample is 1:3. Which is in line with the 12m:36m figures quoted by Bastani.
    Summary: Opinium's sample looks ok in this respect; Bastani either can't do basic maths or is lying.

    Edit: the first few tabs have 350 and 351 out of 1,041 as being 65+. I'm not sure where these figures come from - the front page is clear that the poll is based on a sample of 2,018 people.
    Updated summary: Opinium might have screwed up their reporting.
    No, unsurprisingly it's perfectly fine and Bastani is being a tit. Their method starts with a larger sample but then makes successive cuts based on a large amount of self-reported qualifying questions (Are you registered? Can you vote in a GE?) as well as turnout weighting etc. It means their effective sample at the end is 1041. Because that effective sample is all people both able and likely to vote it by nature includes a larger proportion of old gits.
  • Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)


    7% by end of next week....4% by GE....
    It was also 9.7% three Sundays ago!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)


    7% by end of next week....4% by GE....
    It was also 9.7% three Sundays ago!
    Strong n stable.
  • Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:
    10 days before election 2017, Survation/GMB had it Tories 43% Labour 37% LDs 8%
    https://www.facebook.com/borisjohnson/videos/587526021996770/
    Could still be LAB biggest party!
    Using Baxter's tool to adjust for SNP seats, this latest Survation poll produces the following result:
    Con ......... 339
    Lab ......... 229
    LibDem .... 13
    SNP .......... 46
    Plaid .......... 4
    Green ........ 1
    Brexit ........ 0
    N.I. ...........18
    Total ..... 650
    Con Maj .. 28
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    OK. When's the next poll? :)

    :D

    ICM usually reports on Monday I think?
    Isn't that ICBM?
    Incoming!
  • RobD said:

    Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)


    7% by end of next week....4% by GE....
    It was also 9.7% three Sundays ago!
    Strong n stable.
    That's me, that is....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)


    7% by end of next week....4% by GE....
    It was also 9.7% three Sundays ago!
    Strong n stable.
    That's me, that is....
    You're my rock, Francis. My rock of jelly. :p
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Andrew said:

    MikeL said:

    The last Survation was actually 41/30.
    Survation reporting Con +2. So looks like they may have rounded the change - eg gone from 40.7 to 42.3 so change is 1.6 which is rounded to 2.

    This one is 42.3 32.9, last was 40.7 29.7.
    You want the higher numbers if you're the Tories, they're fighting LD and SNP too
  • MikeL said:

    No MORI poll in last week may have created minor distortion as MORI normally very good for Con.

    There was one last week, and there was one four weeks back.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Detailed Survation commentary here:

    https://www.survation.com/new-westminster-voting-intention-survation-on-behalf-of-good-morning-britain/

    with a link to the full tables.

    Key points that I picked out:

    * By recent standards it's a relatively old poll - from Wednesday to Saturday.
    * Obviously a classic two-party squeeze, but with BXP almost extinct the 4% Green vote could be critical. If they and a few more LDs swing to Labour in key seats...
    * Remain voters are now heavily switching LD->Lab
    * Only 7% of all voters say the party leader is one of the most important factors in deciding how to vote
    * In 70% of Labour voters now think he's the best choice as PM. Corbyn also leads among all 18-34 voters and massively (43-29) in London, but Johnson is 2-1 ahead in most other areas.
    * Only 29% now think Brexit is the most important issue. However, apart from the NHS, no other issue is attracting much attention either: the climate scores 3%. (Score for Broadband: 0!)
    * The Tories are leading easily on "best campaign", by 30 to 20. 6% think the LibDems have had the best campaign.

    As the Tory campaign is focused entirely on Brexit and Corbyn, and people seem increasingly less less concerned about either, they may have a structural problem in the final stages. But a 9% lead is a 9% lead...
  • The Tories are leading easily on "best campaign", by 30 to 20.


    Who did they survey? CCHQ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    edited December 2019

    Lib Dems collapse is faster than an England cricket team...all they had to do was offer a second referendum on Boris deal and some sensible tax rises to fund public services.

    Does their -4% timeline correlate with when they sent out the Mike Letters?
    LibDems Cannot Be Serious Here?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    edited December 2019
    Andrew said:

    MikeL said:

    The last Survation was actually 41/30.
    Survation reporting Con +2. So looks like they may have rounded the change - eg gone from 40.7 to 42.3 so change is 1.6 which is rounded to 2.

    This one is 42.3 32.9, last was 40.7 29.7.
    OK thanks - makes good sense.
    It's false precision of course but that's a touch better than initially apparent for Con - Con lead 9.4% - down 1.6% from 11.0% the previous week - that's looks reasonably encouraging given only 10 days to go.
  • Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:
    10 days before election 2017, Survation/GMB had it Tories 43% Labour 37% LDs 8%
    https://www.facebook.com/borisjohnson/videos/587526021996770/
    Could still be LAB biggest party!
    Using Baxter's tool to adjust for SNP seats, this latest Survation poll produces the following result:
    Con ......... 339
    Lab ......... 229
    LibDem .... 13
    SNP .......... 46
    Plaid .......... 4
    Green ........ 1
    Brexit ........ 0
    N.I. ...........18
    Total ..... 650
    Con Maj .. 28
    It looks like Labour is nicking votes from the LibDems BIG-TIME! Just how many more can they lose? By Baxter's latest reckoning they are set to make a net gain of just one seat over their pretty miserable haul in 2017. Come back Vince, all is forgiven.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    Can someone explain this? It is late, Blue Nun late, but I reckon the % splits are correct and Bastani is wrong

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1201258763828768770

    From a quick look, 493 out of the total sample of 2,018 are aged 65+. Which is just under a quarter, ie ratio of pensioners/working age in sample is 1:3. Which is in line with the 12m:36m figures quoted by Bastani.
    Summary: Opinium's sample looks ok in this respect; Bastani either can't do basic maths or is lying.

    Edit: the first few tabs have 350 and 351 out of 1,041 as being 65+. I'm not sure where these figures come from - the front page is clear that the poll is based on a sample of 2,018 people.
    Updated summary: Opinium might have screwed up their reporting.
    No, unsurprisingly it's perfectly fine and Bastani is being a tit. Their method starts with a larger sample but then makes successive cuts based on a large amount of self-reported qualifying questions (Are you registered? Can you vote in a GE?) as well as turnout weighting etc. It means their effective sample at the end is 1041. Because that effective sample is all people both able and likely to vote it by nature includes a larger proportion of old gits.
    Ah, I see. Many thanks for the explanation.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Lab. Celebrity week this week.

    We get Ross Kemp on Thursday in Chessy.

    When he comes in Lab. Club going to get Mrs BJO to tell him to "get out of my club"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    Detailed Survation commentary here:

    https://www.survation.com/new-westminster-voting-intention-survation-on-behalf-of-good-morning-britain/

    with a link to the full tables.

    Key points that I picked out:

    * By recent standards it's a relatively old poll - from Wednesday to Saturday.
    * Obviously a classic two-party squeeze, but with BXP almost extinct the 4% Green vote could be critical. If they and a few more LDs swing to Labour in key seats...
    * Remain voters are now heavily switching LD->Lab
    * Only 7% of all voters say the party leader is one of the most important factors in deciding how to vote
    * In 70% of Labour voters now think he's the best choice as PM. Corbyn also leads among all 18-34 voters and massively (43-29) in London, but Johnson is 2-1 ahead in most other areas.
    * Only 29% now think Brexit is the most important issue. However, apart from the NHS, no other issue is attracting much attention either: the climate scores 3%. (Score for Broadband: 0!)
    * The Tories are leading easily on "best campaign", by 30 to 20. 6% think the LibDems have had the best campaign.

    As the Tory campaign is focused entirely on Brexit and Corbyn, and people seem increasingly less less concerned about either, they may have a structural problem in the final stages. But a 9% lead is a 9% lead...

    Could still be urban churn, LibDems to Labour - Labour builing up votes where they don't need them - Liverpool, London, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle.....and (on topic) Sheffield?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019

    Detailed Survation commentary here:

    https://www.survation.com/new-westminster-voting-intention-survation-on-behalf-of-good-morning-britain/

    with a link to the full tables.

    Key points that I picked out:

    * By recent standards it's a relatively old poll - from Wednesday to Saturday.
    * Obviously a classic two-party squeeze, but with BXP almost extinct the 4% Green vote could be critical. If they and a few more LDs swing to Labour in key seats...
    * Remain voters are now heavily switching LD->Lab
    * Only 7% of all voters say the party leader is one of the most important factors in deciding how to vote
    * In 70% of Labour voters now think he's the best choice as PM. Corbyn also leads among all 18-34 voters and massively (43-29) in London, but Johnson is 2-1 ahead in most other areas.
    * Only 29% now think Brexit is the most important issue. However, apart from the NHS, no other issue is attracting much attention either: the climate scores 3%. (Score for Broadband: 0!)
    * The Tories are leading easily on "best campaign", by 30 to 20. 6% think the LibDems have had the best campaign.

    As the Tory campaign is focused entirely on Brexit and Corbyn, and people seem increasingly less less concerned about either, they may have a structural problem in the final stages. But a 9% lead is a 9% lead...

    73% of Leavers think Boris would be best PM though but only 43% of Remainers think Corbyn would be best PM.


    Remainers now split 49% Labour, 21% LD, 14% Tory, 4% Green.

    https://www.survation.com/new-westminster-voting-intention-survation-on-behalf-of-good-morning-britain/
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710

    MikeL said:

    No MORI poll in last week may have created minor distortion as MORI normally very good for Con.

    There was one last week, and there was one four weeks back.
    I meant the last week - ie week just ended!
  • MikeL said:

    Andrew said:

    MikeL said:

    The last Survation was actually 41/30.
    Survation reporting Con +2. So looks like they may have rounded the change - eg gone from 40.7 to 42.3 so change is 1.6 which is rounded to 2.

    This one is 42.3 32.9, last was 40.7 29.7.
    OK thanks - makes good sense.
    It's false precision of course but that's a touch better than initially apparent for Con - Con lead 9.4% - down 1.6% from 11.0% the previous week - that's looks reasonably encouraging given only 10 days to go.
    I think the other encouraging aspect for the Tories is the fact that Survation is showing the LibDems down from 15% to 11% , that's 26.7% in just one week and to my thinking that's most improbable, suggesting the poll may an outlier, at least to that extent. Add say 1% to the LibDem figure and deduct this from Labour and the Tory lead increases to 10% which very much corresponds with other recent polling numbers.Well at least that's my theory and I'm sticking to it!
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    OK. When's the next poll? :)

    :D

    ICM usually reports on Monday I think?
    Isn't that ICBM?
    Incoming!
    Specialists in tactical voting...
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    The gender split on survation is quite striking
    Men Con 47.3% Lab 28.6% (Con lead by 18.7%)
    Women Con 38.2% Lab 38.3% (Lab lead by 0.1%)

    In 2017 Con led Men by 6% (45-39) and women were split at 43% each.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    MikeL said:

    Andrew said:

    MikeL said:

    The last Survation was actually 41/30.
    Survation reporting Con +2. So looks like they may have rounded the change - eg gone from 40.7 to 42.3 so change is 1.6 which is rounded to 2.

    This one is 42.3 32.9, last was 40.7 29.7.
    OK thanks - makes good sense.
    It's false precision of course but that's a touch better than initially apparent for Con - Con lead 9.4% - down 1.6% from 11.0% the previous week - that's looks reasonably encouraging given only 10 days to go.
    I think the other encouraging aspect for the Tories is the fact that Survation is showing the LibDems down from 15% to 11% , that's 26.7% in just one week and to my thinking that's most improbable, suggesting the poll may an outlier, at least to that extent. Add say 1% to the LibDem figure and deduct this from Labour and the Tory lead increases to 10% which very much corresponds with other recent polling numbers.Well at least that's my theory and I'm sticking to it!
    15% was too high though.

    I still think they end up on a max of 10%

    Greens wont get 4% either imo

    Is there a further MRP this week based on 9%??

    Tory lead of 20 methinks
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613

    The Tories are leading easily on "best campaign", by 30 to 20.


    Who did they survey? CCHQ?
    To be fair, they haven't had Corbyn fronting their campaign.....
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    edited December 2019
    Trains: Is the daily dose of fagpacket politics from Labour HQ because internal polling is making them desperately flail or because they show one more heave will cause an upset? Almost seems designed to ensure the Lib Dems pick up no seats in South. Odd.
    Andew Marr: just watched this "grilling" of Boris, the first time I've seen Marr in a couple of years. Would've been better to get Newsround to do the interview, why is he still being given such a prime slot? Such an irritating style.
    Cummings Social Media Blitz: will this be enough to arrest the Tory poll slide? Have the Reds kept enough financial fire power in their arsenal to combat this late volley? How many ads does firing X hundred staff from central HQ buy you?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Unlike other pollsters Survation gives us UK - rather than GB - data.Thus, on a GB basis the figures would be Con 43% Lab 34%.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    People are assuming that 4% Green share will evaporate to Labour come election day.

    Hmmm I'm not so sure. The young are *very* concerned about the climate crisis as they see it and they could do surprisingly well in terms of vote share.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Tories looking like they will keep all their southern shire seats. Scotland looks good as well.
  • In graphical form: All 11 polls with field-work end-dates Monday 25th to Sunday 1st.

    Con 42.6%
    Lab 32.9%
    LD 13.1%
    BXP 3.5%
    SNP 3.5%
    GRN 3.0%
    oth 1.6%

    Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)

    SNP 3.5% = up 0.5 on UK GE 2017

    Which, in Scottish terms, would imply an increase from 36.9% in 2017 to approx 43.1% in 2019. I’d take that!

    There is hope yet. But it all depends very heavily on vote distribution, differential turnout, registration or lack thereof of young voters and tactical unwind (primarily SCon back to SLD). Then add in that the Scottish Greens are now standing in many more constituencies compared with 2017.

    In those circumstances, Baxter et al have very limited use.
  • I think Johnson has made a blunder ruling out IndyRef2. It means that strongly Unionist Lib Dem and Labour supporters can safely vote for their 1st preference party, secure in the knowledge that London will block a new plebiscite.

    It will only affect the actual result in a handful of seats, but those key results will set the tone. And tone matters.

    I wonder when the penny is going to drop? Judging by previous form: never.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    In graphical form: All 11 polls with field-work end-dates Monday 25th to Sunday 1st.

    Con 42.6%
    Lab 32.9%
    LD 13.1%
    BXP 3.5%
    SNP 3.5%
    GRN 3.0%
    oth 1.6%

    Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)

    SNP 3.5% = up 0.5 on UK GE 2017

    Which, in Scottish terms, would imply an increase from 36.9% in 2017 to approx 43.1% in 2019. I’d take that!

    There is hope yet. But it all depends very heavily on vote distribution, differential turnout, registration or lack thereof of young voters and tactical unwind (primarily SCon back to SLD). Then add in that the Scottish Greens are now standing in many more constituencies compared with 2017.

    In those circumstances, Baxter et al have very limited use.
    I'd be very careful with rounding there.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    The Labour fare policy is not designed to help them win overall or to even just save Leave seats, it is designed to make sure the Libdens dont replace them as the second party of the south, including London. Why? Because

    1) Ofcourse it becomes harder to one day win a majority

    2) they dont want to have to do a deal with the libdems to bring in PR. Because if PR was ever introduced in Britain they would be fecked

    Labour are already thinking of the next elections.They don't care if Brexit happens or not.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    nunu2 said:

    The Labour fare policy is not designed to help them win overall or to even just save Leave seats, it is designed to make sure the Libdens dont replace them as the second party of the south, including London. Why? Because

    1) Ofcourse it becomes harder to one day win a majority

    2) they dont want to have to do a deal with the libdems to bring in PR. Because if PR was ever introduced in Britain they would be fecked

    Labour are already thinking of the next elections.They don't care if Brexit happens or not.

    Interesting. So does this mean they've already written off this election do you think? Or is this just a minor secondary front on the battlefield and they still think they can force NOM
  • RobD said:

    In graphical form: All 11 polls with field-work end-dates Monday 25th to Sunday 1st.

    Con 42.6%
    Lab 32.9%
    LD 13.1%
    BXP 3.5%
    SNP 3.5%
    GRN 3.0%
    oth 1.6%

    Con lead 9.7% (was 13.0% last week)

    SNP 3.5% = up 0.5 on UK GE 2017

    Which, in Scottish terms, would imply an increase from 36.9% in 2017 to approx 43.1% in 2019. I’d take that!

    There is hope yet. But it all depends very heavily on vote distribution, differential turnout, registration or lack thereof of young voters and tactical unwind (primarily SCon back to SLD). Then add in that the Scottish Greens are now standing in many more constituencies compared with 2017.

    In those circumstances, Baxter et al have very limited use.
    I'd be very careful with rounding there.
    Of course.

    Tis just a rough guide. Not rocket science.
  • I note than an awful lot of PB posters now have vast gaps between paragraphs, myself included. Yet another bug in the horrific Vanilla software?
  • I note than an awful lot of PB posters now have vast gaps between paragraphs, myself included. Yet another bug in the horrific Vanilla software?

    Yes indeed
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,444

    In graphical form: All 11 polls with field-work end-dates Monday 25th to Sunday 1st.
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/1201298365235023876

    One thing I notice is that the Conservative+Farage Fan Club aggregate is down by ~2 over the period. Given the collapse of the Lib Dem share that's probably mostly Labour Leavers returning home than more Tory Remainers switching to the Yellows.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    This week we have the continuing fall out over London Bridge, the Prince Andrew programme tomorrow, and the Nato summit

    And labour try a dead cat on rail transport

    I am beginning to think people will be laughing at them for the rest of the campaign

    The country needs a proper opposition

    It is getting no traction on social media, as a wild rumour has taken hold on Twitter, and 90% of my timeline is currently about that.
    Can you share?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Endillion said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Student loan cancellation has to be coming, surely....

    I guess that must be being saved for the last weekend now, to maximise the immediacy of its impact in staying in the mind of students.
    Well it isn't just current students, it could be attractive for 30 years old struggling to get on the property ladder because a decent chunk of their wages go on the student loan repayments.
    Nah, anyone in their 30s is on the older system of £1k or £3k fees. Most of us have paid off our loans. It's the early to mid 20s lot that have been royally fucked.
    Even when the fees with £3k, loads of people took the full loan amount which was what ~£4-5k a year? Lots of those people have gone into jobs that don't pay much more than £24k a year and so even 10 years later they still have a decent chunk of a loan.
    Possibly, I think the issue for them was that they didn't start repayments until £23k vs £18k for us, that extra £450 per year makes a difference. I think I had mine paid off when I was 27 but I only had £14k worth of loans.
    The main issue is interest rates, partially the fact that inflation in the early years of 3k fees was very low, and partially that the rules have changed. My loan accrued zero interest until I graduated and then ~1-2% pa. Now it's 6% pa which, in conjunction with the rise to 9k fees means that a lot of people won't even be paying off the interest each year.
    Just set the interest rate to be in line with CPI. Would solve a whole lot of problems and cost almost nothing - would mostly just tick down the write-off rate by a few points.
    Interest free

    Students benefit from university so should pay

    The public benefits from university so should encourage and facilitate
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:
    10 days before election 2017, Survation/GMB had it Tories 43% Labour 37% LDs 8%
    https://www.facebook.com/borisjohnson/videos/587526021996770/
    Could still be LAB biggest party!
    Using Baxter's tool to adjust for SNP seats, this latest Survation poll produces the following result:
    Con ......... 339
    Lab ......... 229
    LibDem .... 13
    SNP .......... 46
    Plaid .......... 4
    Green ........ 1
    Brexit ........ 0
    N.I. ...........18
    Total ..... 650
    Con Maj .. 28
    It looks like Labour is nicking votes from the LibDems BIG-TIME! Just how many more can they lose? By Baxter's latest reckoning they are set to make a net gain of just one seat over their pretty miserable haul in 2017. Come back Vince, all is forgiven.
    All the signs are that the LibDem vote increase is very geographically focused. Baxter is of no use in modelling that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:
    10 days before election 2017, Survation/GMB had it Tories 43% Labour 37% LDs 8%
    https://www.facebook.com/borisjohnson/videos/587526021996770/
    Could still be LAB biggest party!
    Using Baxter's tool to adjust for SNP seats, this latest Survation poll produces the following result:
    Con ......... 339
    Lab ......... 229
    LibDem .... 13
    SNP .......... 46
    Plaid .......... 4
    Green ........ 1
    Brexit ........ 0
    N.I. ...........18
    Total ..... 650
    Con Maj .. 28
    It looks like Labour is nicking votes from the LibDems BIG-TIME! Just how many more can they lose? By Baxter's latest reckoning they are set to make a net gain of just one seat over their pretty miserable haul in 2017. Come back Vince, all is forgiven.
    Dont knock it

    That’s an above inflation increase
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    MikeL said:

    Andrew said:

    MikeL said:

    The last Survation was actually 41/30.
    Survation reporting Con +2. So looks like they may have rounded the change - eg gone from 40.7 to 42.3 so change is 1.6 which is rounded to 2.

    This one is 42.3 32.9, last was 40.7 29.7.
    OK thanks - makes good sense.
    It's false precision of course but that's a touch better than initially apparent for Con - Con lead 9.4% - down 1.6% from 11.0% the previous week - that's looks reasonably encouraging given only 10 days to go.
    I think the other encouraging aspect for the Tories is the fact that Survation is showing the LibDems down from 15% to 11% , that's 26.7% in just one week and to my thinking that's most improbable, suggesting the poll may an outlier, at least to that extent. Add say 1% to the LibDem figure and deduct this from Labour and the Tory lead increases to 10% which very much corresponds with other recent polling numbers.Well at least that's my theory and I'm sticking to it!
    If the LibDem vote is concentrated to a small number of key seats, you’d expect greater sampling error, all other things being equal.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I note than an awful lot of PB posters now have vast gaps between paragraphs, myself included. Yet another bug in the horrific Vanilla software?

    Not a bug - deliberate design
    I didn’t put a blank line between this line and “design” and it comes out fine

    But if you do what any right thinking person does and use paragraphs it comes out funky
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    nunu2 said:

    People are assuming that 4% Green share will evaporate to Labour come election day.

    Hmmm I'm not so sure. The young are *very* concerned about the climate crisis as they see it and they could do surprisingly well in terms of vote share.

    Under PR their vote more than doubles straight away.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019

    The man strikes me as a heartless sociopath.

    Not exactly a revelation.

    I cannot for the life of me understand any of these PB Tories who think he is fit for the job.

    "But Corbyn" is not a reason.
This discussion has been closed.