@Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.
Johnson will have to cancel that one too if his 'dickery' over the thoughtless use of 'leftie' in such tragic circumstances gains traction. As the day rolls on his heartlessness is making me angrier and angrier. The young lady, Saskia Jones is the same age as my children, that thought cuts deep.
I have been busy this weekend, and missed that completely - what did he say ?
Johnson, on Marr claimed that the events on Friday were wholly the fault of Labour Party policy from 2008. There is an argument to say this was one of many contributory factors in the murderer's early release (albeit under a Conservative government). Johnson in a cynical act of partisanship explained this using the term 'leftie government'. The language alone was, under the circumstances, worthy of contempt. The man strikes me as a heartless sociopath.
I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).
Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.
Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.
Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.
Poster battle in Finchley and Golders Green just seems to be the recognisable members of both LD and Con. Both have a fairly good coverage however.
They aren't Canterbury - but I don't see why higher youth turnout in those seats couldn't also make a difference.
What are the demographics in those seats. If we are talking about an increase in turnout of 5% amongst a group of people that constitutes 5% of the electorate, that's a small effect.
Precisely. It would negligible rather than decisive.
It's like saying very Tory over 75s turning out in huge numbers could make the difference to Tory prospects in Putney or Brighton Kemptown.
I've done a quick set of back-of-the-fag-packet calculations and estimated that just over 11% of the electorate are aged 18-24. Only about a third of those are in full-time education, which puts the student electorate at a little under 4% of all voters.
They're also the age cohort that is least likely to vote. Using YouGov turnout estimates for 2017, I'd therefore estimate the 18-24 age group as constituting about 9% of all those who turn out to vote, and 18-24 year olds in full-time education as only 3% of actual voters.
So yes, this group could be very important in seats with a disproportionate concentration of university students (assuming that they also vote in the constituency where they are educated rather than that in which their families reside,) but elsewhere in the country the value of the youth vote should be very limited.
When judging turnout of this group, we do need to allow that many are registered in two constituencies, but only vote in one. Certainly this was true for Fox jr, so despite voting 100% of the time, he shows as a 50% turnout.
@Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.
Johnson will have to cancel that one too if his 'dickery' over the thoughtless use of 'leftie' in such tragic circumstances gains traction. As the day rolls on his heartlessness is making me angrier and angrier. The young lady, Saskia Jones is the same age as my children, that thought cuts deep.
Johnson is just an utterly repulsive politician. I'm so glad i'm not in a Tory-Labour constituency.
The irony is that a tragedy like this should be a political gift to a sitting Prime Minister, even without playing party politics in any way. Just act Prime Ministerial. It's not (or shouldn't be) that difficult!
I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).
Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.
Sounds right for Winchester. The city proper is solidly Lib Dem, with pockets of High Tories and the Labour vote squeezed into oblivion. It’s the villages outside the city where the Tory vote lives. I have to say that I’ve been a bit surprised how well the Tories have held there since the ultra-Tory Meon Valley was hived off into its own constituency, but I guess it’ll take a while for Winchester Lib Dems to live down Mark Oaten. Hopefully this year they will.
If you want to see Lib Dem posters in abundance visit Wokingham the soon to be ex MP John Redwood's constituency,
Not too dissimilar from Sheffield Hallam, obviously with different parties involved. In the case of Wokingham, Baxter gives the Tory a 7% lead over the LibDem candidate and the bookies make the Tory a 1/4 or 1/5 short-priced favourite. If the Blue Team lose the likes of Wokingham, Corbyn's in Downing Street ... that's for sure.
Only LibDem posters to be seen in North Dorset... a constituency they don't stand a chance in as it's one of the safest Tory seats in the country.
@Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.
Johnson will have to cancel that one too if his 'dickery' over the thoughtless use of 'leftie' in such tragic circumstances gains traction. As the day rolls on his heartlessness is making me angrier and angrier. The young lady, Saskia Jones is the same age as my children, that thought cuts deep.
I have been busy this weekend, and missed that completely - what did he say ?
Johnson, on Marr claimed that the events on Friday were wholly the fault of Labour Party policy from 2008. There is an argument to say this was one of many contributory factors in the murderer's early release (albeit under a Conservative government). Johnson in a cynical act of partisanship explained this using the term 'leftie government'. The language alone was, under the circumstances, worthy of contempt. The man strikes me as a heartless sociopath.
I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).
Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.
Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.
Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.
Here there's only a handful of Tory posters, despite the fact they'll probably get a majority of the vote. What's more interesting is the change from previous elections. No LD posters from the 2016 Remain houses. All the big houses which had huge Labour boards up in 2017 currently have nothing displayed. Maybe it'll change in the coming days, but certainly no sign of the Corbynmania of two years ago.
ion, which puts the student electorate at a little under 4% of all voters.
They're also the age cohort that is least likely to vote. Using YouGov turnout estimates for 2017, I'd therefore estimate the 18-24 age group as constituting about 9% of all those who turn out to vote, and 18-24 year olds in full-time education as only 3% of actual voters.
So yes, this group could be very important in seats with a disproportionate concentration of university students (assuming that they also vote in the constituency where they are educated rather than that in which their families reside,) but elsewhere in the country the value of the youth vote should be very limited.
I think that's right (though I'm surprised the cohort is that large). We ought to be able to do our own little MRP job in drawing up a picture of Labour seats most likely to hold against a Tory tide:
* Large student population * Significant LibDem/Green vote, but not enough to appear to be in contention * High BAME share * High level of highly-educated voters (overlaps with the student issue) * Voted Remain * Low retired population
and of course the reverse for the opposite characteristcs. I don't know all the places in
@Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.
Johnson will have to cancel that one too if his 'dickery' over the thoughtless use of 'leftie' in such tragic circumstances gains traction. As the day rolls on his heartlessness is making me angrier and angrier. The young lady, Saskia Jones is the same age as my children, that thought cuts deep.
I have been busy this weekend, and missed that completely - what did he say ?
Johnson, on Marr claimed that the events on Friday were wholly the fault of Labour Party policy from 2008. There is an argument to say this was one of many contributory factors in the murderer's early release (albeit under a Conservative government). Johnson in a cynical act of partisanship explained this using the term 'leftie government'. The language alone was, under the circumstances, worthy of contempt. The man strikes me as a heartless sociopath.
I think you might be in a minority on that one
Which bit do you disagree with? Surely not the heartless sociopath notion.
...the above seems quite interesting. Tories about to hammer it..
Do any PB Tory supporters seriously believe that a Tory majority will end the Brexit uncertainty?
I'm not a Tory supporter, but it seems abundantly clear that a large but not landslide majority for Boris would make the timing, form, and fact, of Brexit far clearer than they have been since the referendum, and reduce the amount of time spent on Parliamentary Remain Caucus shenanigans.
ion, which puts the student electorate at a little under 4% of all voters.
They're also the age cohort that is least likely to vote. Using YouGov turnout estimates for 2017, I'd therefore estimate the 18-24 age group as constituting about 9% of all those who turn out to vote, and 18-24 year olds in full-time education as only 3% of actual voters.
So yes, this group could be very important in seats with a disproportionate concentration of university students (assuming that they also vote in the constituency where they are educated rather than that in which their families reside,) but elsewhere in the country the value of the youth vote should be very limited.
I think that's right (though I'm surprised the cohort is that large). We ought to be able to do our own little MRP job in drawing up a picture of Labour seats most likely to hold against a Tory tide:
* Large student population * Significant LibDem/Green vote, but not enough to appear to be in contention * High BAME share * High level of highly-educated voters (overlaps with the student issue) * Voted Remain * Low retired population
and of course the reverse for the opposite characteristcs. I don't know all the places in
but the ones that catch my eye are Canterbury, Lincoln, Portsmouth S, Derby N, Battersea, Reading East, Enfield Southgate, Gedling.
On average, you’d think % Remain Vote is a decent proxy for the rest, and a knowable fact right? Edit - maybe not BAME share. That might not be completely correlated.
I've scanned two constituencies this weekend: Winchester and Surrey South-West (mainly Farnham).
Winchester: about four to five big Tory posters for Steve Brine on the way into the city. All in fields or rural areas. At least a dozen (probably more) yellow diamonds in the City itself where you'd expect them. Nicely spread out on every seventh or eight house so it looks universal.
Farnham: caught a Focus grouper red-handed hammering in a yellow diamond on the A31 (ok, so I just drove past him) but only 3-4 big diamonds that I could see from the road. Two Hunt posters. Again, both in fields.
Easy to read too much into this. I don't think Tories really do election posters anymore apart from landowners and farmers whereas the LDs really do to make their presence felt and known.
Have been across to Argyll & Bute three times (to Cowal and Bute) during the campaign and noticed lots of the lamppost placards (Lib Dem and SNP). In contrast, I have seen absolutely sod all in Inverclyde and central Glasgow.
I love Argyll and Bute. One of the UK's most beautiful and magical places.
...the above seems quite interesting. Tories about to hammer it..
Do any PB Tory supporters seriously believe that a Tory majority will end the Brexit uncertainty?
I am not a Tory but I do believe that a Tory majority will simplify things. I agree entirely that this will continue to be a long process but if we do leave on or around 31st January then at least one very large part of the uncertainty will have been removed.
It will no longer be possible for current Remainers to cling to the hope that we will Remain. We will be out and any rejoin campaign will then be considerably more difficult as the EU rules change dramatically with regard to our return compared to our remaining.
That in itself will simplify matters and give a bit more certainty to business. Of course there will then be the whole issue of the FTA but I expect Johnson to cave on his deadline for that as long as it can be seen there is reasonable progress being made by the end of next summer.
So no it won't end ALL Brexit uncertainty but it will certainly remove a large amount of it by finally stopping all those people who believe they can frustrate the process and prevent it happening.
...the above seems quite interesting. Tories about to hammer it..
Do any PB Tory supporters seriously believe that a Tory majority will end the Brexit uncertainty?
It will end the uncertainty of will we legally leave or not. It not end the uncertainty of whether a trade deal can be done in the time frame. But for a lot of leaver no 1 is a very good outcome.
ion, which puts the student electorate at a little under 4% of all voters.
They're also the age cohort that is least likely to vote. Using YouGov turnout estimates for 2017, I'd therefore estimate the 18-24 age group as constituting about 9% of all those who turn out to vote, and 18-24 year olds in full-time education as only 3% of actual voters.
So yes, this group could be very important in seats with a disproportionate concentration of university students (assuming that they also vote in the constituency where they are educated rather than that in which their families reside,) but elsewhere in the country the value of the youth vote should be very limited.
I think that's right (though I'm surprised the cohort is that large). We ought to be able to do our own little MRP job in drawing up a picture of Labour seats most likely to hold against a Tory tide:
* Large student population * Significant LibDem/Green vote, but not enough to appear to be in contention * High BAME share * High level of highly-educated voters (overlaps with the student issue) * Voted Remain * Low retired population
and of course the reverse for the opposite characteristcs. I don't know all the places in
...the above seems quite interesting. Tories about to hammer it..
About time. Hope its not too late.
"Get Brexit Done" is not a message that will resonate with swing voters imo. Nor is it true since Brexit will rumble on regardless. Those who want 'Brexit done' are probably in the bag for the Tories anyway.
ion, which puts the student electorate at a little under 4% of all voters.
They're also the age cohort that is least likely to vote. Using YouGov turnout estimates for 2017, I'd therefore estimate the 18-24 age group as constituting about 9% of all those who turn out to vote, and 18-24 year olds in full-time education as only 3% of actual voters.
So yes, this group could be very important in seats with a disproportionate concentration of university students (assuming that they also vote in the constituency where they are educated rather than that in which their families reside,) but elsewhere in the country the value of the youth vote should be very limited.
I think that's right (though I'm surprised the cohort is that large). We ought to be able to do our own little MRP job in drawing up a picture of Labour seats most likely to hold against a Tory tide:
* Large student population * Significant LibDem/Green vote, but not enough to appear to be in contention * High BAME share * High level of highly-educated voters (overlaps with the student issue) * Voted Remain * Low retired population
and of course the reverse for the opposite characteristcs. I don't know all the places in
Tuition fees is possible - sure up that student vote I guess
And ex-student vote.
It's not going to win them many new ones though, the WASPI bullshit at least tried to do that.
Depends. I’ve paid mine off (old terms so doable without being filthy rich). Can I have a refund? When will the cheque go out? I am willing to accept that electoral bribe.
Tuition fees is possible - sure up that student vote I guess
And ex-student vote.
It's not going to win them many new ones though, the WASPI bullshit at least tried to do that.
Depends. I’ve paid mine off (old terms so doable without being filthy rich). Can I have a refund? When will the cheque go out? I am willing to accept that electoral bribe.
I wonder whether I'd get my £14k plus interest back?
...the above seems quite interesting. Tories about to hammer it..
Do any PB Tory supporters seriously believe that a Tory majority will end the Brexit uncertainty?
I am not a Tory but I do believe that a Tory majority will simplify things. I agree entirely that this will continue to be a long process but if we do leave on or around 31st January then at least one very large part of the uncertainty will have been removed.
It will no longer be possible for current Remainers to cling to the hope that we will Remain. We will be out and any rejoin campaign will then be considerably more difficult as the EU rules change dramatically with regard to our return compared to our remaining.
That in itself will simplify matters and give a bit more certainty to business. Of course there will then be the whole issue of the FTA but I expect Johnson to cave on his deadline for that as long as it can be seen there is reasonable progress being made by the end of next summer.
So no it won't end ALL Brexit uncertainty but it will certainly remove a large amount of it by finally stopping all those people who believe they can frustrate the process and prevent it happening.
...the above seems quite interesting. Tories about to hammer it..
Do any PB Tory supporters seriously believe that a Tory majority will end the Brexit uncertainty?
It will be a defining moment. Revoke and a second referendum end and those who want to be in the EU will have to start a campaign to rejoin
The markets will react with relief Corbyn is out of the picture and the inmmediate no deal situation will be over
Of course the type of trade deal will be uncertain but many will just get on with their lives
Not just the type of trade deal, the existence of a trade deal. This has all the same features that created the risk of no WA: British tub-thumping over red lines, impossible timetable, likely Tory hardliner veto, unresolved contradictions, EU feeling that they didn't create the problem and they shouldn't have to take risks to solve it... Then it adds a new one: Ratification by every member state.
@Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.
Johnson will have to cancel that one too if his 'dickery' over the thoughtless use of 'leftie' in such tragic circumstances gains traction. As the day rolls on his heartlessness is making me angrier and angrier. The young lady, Saskia Jones is the same age as my children, that thought cuts deep.
I have been busy this weekend, and missed that completely - what did he say ?
Johnson, on Marr claimed that the events on Friday were wholly the fault of Labour Party policy from 2008. There is an argument to say this was one of many contributory factors in the murderer's early release (albeit under a Conservative government). Johnson in a cynical act of partisanship explained this using the term 'leftie government'. The language alone was, under the circumstances, worthy of contempt. The man strikes me as a heartless sociopath.
I find it helps to understand politicians by associating them with their fictional doppelgangers. For me Boris is forever the political version of Max Bialystock, a rather greasy con artist who seduces elderly women to further his interests. And I can certainly see Boris staging Springtime for Hitler at Westminster.
Lincoln of course matches your high student population criteria but none of the others.
Loads of students in Canterbury, Battersea and Portsmouth and I'd think a fair number in Gedling, though it's not Student Central like Carlton. Reading is a cheaper place to live than Oxford so I'd have thought would get spillover. Gedling, Battersea and Derby N tick the high BAME population box. Might be wrong about Enfield.
@Big_G_NorthWales and that debate is not worth watching either because they are both morons.
Johnson will have to cancel that one too if his 'dickery' over the thoughtless use of 'leftie' in such tragic circumstances gains traction. As the day rolls on his heartlessness is making me angrier and angrier. The young lady, Saskia Jones is the same age as my children, that thought cuts deep.
I have been busy this weekend, and missed that completely - what did he say ?
Johnson, on Marr claimed that the events on Friday were wholly the fault of Labour Party policy from 2008. There is an argument to say this was one of many contributory factors in the murderer's early release (albeit under a Conservative government). Johnson in a cynical act of partisanship explained this using the term 'leftie government'. The language alone was, under the circumstances, worthy of contempt. The man strikes me as a heartless sociopath.
I find it helps to understand politicians by associating them with their fictional doppelgangers. For me Boris is forever the political version of Max Bialystock, a rather greasy con artist who seduces elderly women to further his interests. And I can certainly see Boris staging Springtime for Hitler at Westminster.
Don't be stupid Be a smartie Come and join The Tory Party......
...the above seems quite interesting. Tories about to hammer it..
Do any PB Tory supporters seriously believe that a Tory majority will end the Brexit uncertainty?
It will be a defining moment. Revoke and a second referendum end and those who want to be in the EU will have to start a campaign to rejoin
The markets will react with relief Corbyn is out of the picture and the inmmediate no deal situation will be over
Of course the type of trade deal will be uncertain but many will just get on with their lives
Not just the type of trade deal, the existence of a trade deal. This has all the same features that created the risk of no WA: British tub-thumping over red lines, impossible timetable, likely Tory hardliner veto, unresolved contradictions, EU feeling that they didn't create the problem and they shouldn't have to take risks to solve it... Then it adds a new one: Ratification by every member state.
Not just every member state - some states require regional approval...
Blimey that is self-congratulatory hypocritical sanctimony on an epic scale Process-wise, I don’t think she could do more. Well here's a suggestion for how Ms Viner could do more: How about not tasking employees who are motivated by vile hatred to write editorials, or indeed to write anything in your newspaper?
This thing about wanting closer relations with and a deescalation with Moscow seems predicated on the assumption that these things are a one way street, and Russia has not done anything to escalate matters, and definitely wants closer relations.
It must be a student debt announcement. I was surprised it wasn’t in the manifesto and wondered if it was the plan all along to drop it in the closing stages. No point trying to talk sound economics anymore, Labour are just going for bungs now.
...the above seems quite interesting. Tories about to hammer it..
Do any PB Tory supporters seriously believe that a Tory majority will end the Brexit uncertainty?
It will end the uncertainty of will we legally leave or not. It not end the uncertainty of whether a trade deal can be done in the time frame. But for a lot of leaver no 1 is a very good outcome.
Indeed. It's being sold as a bigger 'fix' than it is, but ending this phase of Brexit would clearly be a huge deal and indicate us moving on to various other matters, otherwise we would not be fighting so hard to not move on to that next phase!
Amazing number of replies to that tweet asking/hoping that the news is that the Queen is dead.
Would the election have to be stopped?
In FTPA world I don’t think it can be can it, with that one clause Bill passed? The date is now law. Edit - To be clear I’m just sad and interested in the narrow question.
ion, which puts the student electorate at a little under 4% of all voters.
They're also the age cohort that is least likely to vote. Using YouGov turnout estimates for 2017, I'd therefore estimate the 18-24 age group as constituting about 9% of all those who turn out to vote, and 18-24 year olds in full-time education as only 3% of actual voters.
So yes, this group could be very important in seats with a disproportionate concentration of university students (assuming that they also vote in the constituency where they are educated rather than that in which their families reside,) but elsewhere in the country the value of the youth vote should be very limited.
I think that's right (though I'm surprised the cohort is that large). We ought to be able to do our own little MRP job in drawing up a picture of Labour seats most likely to hold against a Tory tide:
* Large student population * Significant LibDem/Green vote, but not enough to appear to be in contention * High BAME share * High level of highly-educated voters (overlaps with the student issue) * Voted Remain * Low retired population
and of course the reverse for the opposite characteristcs. I don't know all the places in
but the ones that catch my eye are Canterbury, Lincoln, Portsmouth S, Derby N, Battersea, Reading East, Enfield Southgate, Gedling.
I took the 2011 census figures off Wiki, assumed both that the age structure of the population hasn't changed radically in the eight years since, and that a round 40% of the 15-19 age group are 18-19. That enabled me to subtract children from the total population to give the electorate, and to calculate the proportion of the total electorate aged 18-24. It's a crude methodology but should yield something reasonably close to the true value.
Your list of Labour leaning demographics is, of course, entirely reasonable. For your list of suggested constituencies, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Canterbury - lean Labour Lincoln - lean Labour Portsmouth South - likely Labour Derby North - likely Conservative Battersea - likely Labour Reading East - lean Labour Enfield Southgate - lean Labour Gedling - lean Labour
So it seems that you and they are of like mind. The exception - Derby North - might be something to do with Chris Williamson (standing again as an independent, for those unaware,) though more likely the model simply determines that the demographics there are less favourable to Labour than in the other six examples: it estimates that he'll lose his deposit.
Some useful information that contradicts my earlier assertion that postal votes are usually returned at once. We've just had a statement from the returning officer in Surrey SW:
"We issued 15,161 postal ballots, which will have arrived at domestic addresses about a week ago. You might interested to know that, by the end of the week, we had received back 5,327 or 35%."
My recollection is that PV turnout usually eventually hits close to 70%, so over half of them are still stroking their chins and pondering.
I mean, I’d love to pay £1000 less for my rail ticket but if I did, then how would the infrastructure get paid for? Oh wait, yes, tax rises “only at the top”. I’m not convinced anyone’s falling for this. Also, much though I’d love to be in the majority, isn’t commuting any distance by train a minority sport in this country?
I don't remember the manifesto giving a lot of detail on rail other than that nationalising them would make is simpler and more affordable. It sounds lovely and should be very popular, so once more its a question of whether people believe it, in the context of all the other major announcements, or at the least that the sight of Labour saying 'we want to help you' looks better than the Tories saying 'we won't help you'.
In all honesty, this is the policy that would have the biggest I guess day to day impact on me personally. I spend £400+ a month on train tickets, so this would have the most immediate impact.
Comments
Johnson in a cynical act of partisanship explained this using the term 'leftie government'. The language alone was, under the circumstances, worthy of contempt. The man strikes me as a heartless sociopath.
Not any more.
As of tonight, they’re running 1,104 ads.
https://t.co/AzPit9NPWG
...the above seems quite interesting. Tories about to hammer it..
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/01/nato-should-de-escalate-conflict-russia-focus-inequality-says/
The irony is that a tragedy like this should be a political gift to a sitting Prime Minister, even without playing party politics in any way. Just act Prime Ministerial. It's not (or shouldn't be) that difficult!
What's more interesting is the change from previous elections. No LD posters from the 2016 Remain houses. All the big houses which had huge Labour boards up in 2017 currently have nothing displayed.
Maybe it'll change in the coming days, but certainly no sign of the Corbynmania of two years ago.
* Large student population
* Significant LibDem/Green vote, but not enough to appear to be in contention
* High BAME share
* High level of highly-educated voters (overlaps with the student issue)
* Voted Remain
* Low retired population
and of course the reverse for the opposite characteristcs. I don't know all the places in
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
but the ones that catch my eye are Canterbury, Lincoln, Portsmouth S, Derby N, Battersea, Reading East, Enfield Southgate, Gedling.
Will we all get free pizza?
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1201262432661966848?s=20
End, no.
Edit - maybe not BAME share. That might not be completely correlated.
https://www.isidewith.com/profile/4031424423/ballot/2020-presidential
The markets will react with relief Corbyn is out of the picture and the inmmediate no deal situation will be over
Of course the type of trade deal will be uncertain but many will just get on with their lives
Is that wise? Cameron's idea of strengthening NATO might be a referendum on whether we should leave it!
It will no longer be possible for current Remainers to cling to the hope that we will Remain. We will be out and any rejoin campaign will then be considerably more difficult as the EU rules change dramatically with regard to our return compared to our remaining.
That in itself will simplify matters and give a bit more certainty to business. Of course there will then be the whole issue of the FTA but I expect Johnson to cave on his deadline for that as long as it can be seen there is reasonable progress being made by the end of next summer.
So no it won't end ALL Brexit uncertainty but it will certainly remove a large amount of it by finally stopping all those people who believe they can frustrate the process and prevent it happening.
I am willing to accept that electoral bribe.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/01/facebook-bans-tories-distorted-party-advert-with-laura-kuenssberg
Be a smartie
Come and join
The Tory Party......
Process-wise, I don’t think she could do more.
Well here's a suggestion for how Ms Viner could do more: How about not tasking employees who are motivated by vile hatred to write editorials, or indeed to write anything in your newspaper?
Edit - To be clear I’m just sad and interested in the narrow question.
https://labourlist.org/2019/12/labour-plans-biggest-ever-rail-fares-cut-to-save-commuters-1000-a-year/
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/enacted
Delayed for a fortnight.
Your list of Labour leaning demographics is, of course, entirely reasonable. For your list of suggested constituencies, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Canterbury - lean Labour
Lincoln - lean Labour
Portsmouth South - likely Labour
Derby North - likely Conservative
Battersea - likely Labour
Reading East - lean Labour
Enfield Southgate - lean Labour
Gedling - lean Labour
So it seems that you and they are of like mind. The exception - Derby North - might be something to do with Chris Williamson (standing again as an independent, for those unaware,) though more likely the model simply determines that the demographics there are less favourable to Labour than in the other six examples: it estimates that he'll lose his deposit.
"We issued 15,161 postal ballots, which will have arrived at domestic addresses about a week ago. You might interested to know that, by the end of the week, we had received back 5,327 or 35%."
My recollection is that PV turnout usually eventually hits close to 70%, so over half of them are still stroking their chins and pondering.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOIs9wCuf-0
I’m not convinced anyone’s falling for this. Also, much though I’d love to be in the majority, isn’t commuting any distance by train a minority sport in this country?