Thank you, @david_herdson, that's a good article. As far as my political views are aligned with any party, I think I'm an old-style Liberal. But I'm a Leaver, so the LDs have nothing to offer me.
By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.
Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....
I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.
I don't know when or how much or who by.
But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.
I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
Given big chunks of the student loan book are owned by the private sector, I’m curious what mechanism you are proposing for it to be written off. Debt can only be forgiven by its holder. Is this another magical “non debt bond” to be issued to first renationalise it before it’s written off? Or outright expropriation from the private sector entities that bought it? You lot would be funny if you weren’t so scary.
Much of it is due to be written off anyway, in time. The one thing the LibDems did achieve is that only a minority will ever pay the headline amounts
Sure but the modelled delinquency rates were priced into the sale when it was moved to the private sector. If you are going to forgive the whole stock, how are you going to pay for it? By putting up taxes of people that never went to uni? Or putting up taxes of people that went to uni and have repaid their fees? Or as I rather suspect is the intention, by expropriating the privatised tranches?
Personally I think the upfront payment of fees has improved the focus of students and has not been all bad. The high interest rate is bizarre and should be reduced, so the burden can be reduced by long term inflation, same as all other debt. And high value add degrees (STEM etc...) should be subsidised (potentially 100%) by the state, subject to certain conditions. It would be worth funding this in the gilt market if necessary, for degrees where you can evidence the productivity kick-back.
Or how about instead we just tear up English law contracts and bring the asset book back into public hands for free. Squeeze the Lib Dem’s by another 2% here, to go with the 2% there from the Waspi women. Good old Jezza. He’s not so bad as those evil Tories.
I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.
I don't know when or how much or who by.
But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.
Most of it will never actually be repaid anyway, especially with the punitive rates of interest it attracts. It is bizarre that this rate is more than three times my mortgage. The real reason, I suspect, is to milk higher earners as much as possible to try and cover the losses on those who go into less well paid professions (say, teaching) and will never get close to paying off the money in a 30 year period (what are we looking at for a four year course in tuition fees and maintenance loans? £60k?) The problem is these are the very people most likely to have capital to spare and will therefore clear it or at least reduce it substantially early. We are therefore piling the highest burden of debt on those who are in a sense least able to afford it. The Browne report was an utter fiasco that should never have been adopted by any party, and was the inevitable result of appointing a perjurer who only spoke to his cronies among Vice Chancellors. The Liberal Democrats should have stuck to their guns. And that’s even before we consider the unmitigated disaster zone that is the SLC. They couldn’t even manage simple maintenance loans from before 1997. Four systems at once...I am amazed they have not completed imploded yet, but I am confident it will happen soon. What I am more concerned with is how the current system is replaced with a financial system that’s sustainable, equitable and credible. And I have seen no evidence that any party or for that matter anyone else has come up with one.
Nine years ago there were some PBers who predicted what a disaster tripling student tuition fees would be - well me and Alanbrooke did at least. Do any PBers still think the current system is sustainable ? As to the LibDems there were some who thought it was going to be a vote winner for them - Mike Smithson for example.
You weren’t alone. I could foresee a catastrophe as well. Indeed I blogged extensively on the subject in the days when I ran a blog about my historical research. It is looming, but nobody is thinking about how to replace it, except Corbyn and Labour whose solutions are as clueless as the rest of their work.
Its the perfect example of the failure of our political class.
By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.
Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....
I expect to see all the polls in the 5-7% range.
I think you’d worry if they were all double figures too! Hopefully there will be something to soothe your nerves!
Nine years ago there were some PBers who predicted what a disaster tripling student tuition fees would be - well me and Alanbrooke did at least. Do any PBers still think the current system is sustainable ? As to the LibDems there were some who thought it was going to be a vote winner for them - Mike Smithson for example.
Whether the UK fees are sustainable or not, I don't know.
But, the fees for US universities are much higher -- even for in-state students attending state universities. Fees for the Ivy League are much higher still.
I suspect if you replace fees with less generous government grants, the universities will respond by admitting higher and higher proportions of overseas students. If I recollect correctly, we were able to establish that this had happened at Edinburgh University (in effect, it is how the SNP's pledge is actually being paid for).
I personally would be happy if fewer UK students went to university, but they received more support.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.
Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....
I expect to see all the polls in the 5-7% range.
If Opinium is below 11% I would be gobsmacked. I doubt any will be sub 7%.
By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.
Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....
I expect to see all the polls in the 5-7% range.
I think you’d worry if they were all double figures too! Hopefully there will be something to soothe your nerves!
By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.
Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....
The irony of these idiotic teens chanting ‘fuck the police’ whilst on a climate change protest when only an hour later the very same police force were facing a potential suicide bomber on #LondonBridge, saving many lives in the process of tackling him. #LoveOurPolice https://t.co/8fOlx2ER0l
So Bozo gets to look tough on crime for his appearance on Marr and avoids AN .
Marr is unlikely to go after Johnson given the circumstances .
It would indeed look terrible for the national broadcaster to do that 48 hours after an attack in the capital. Mabe not all of CCHQ should be fired after all.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
On the face of it Labour promising to write off all student debt seems a no brainer (irrespective of whether it's possible). However, I'm far from convinced such a policy would play well in a lot of the Labour Leave seats. In many of those seats not too many voters would benefit, and those that don't might take a dim view of yet another demographic getting the benefit of Labour largesse.
I've yet come across anybody able to explain why the working class teenager that leaves school for a job should subsidise their middle class classmate through university.
So Bozo gets to look tough on crime for his appearance on Marr and avoids AN .
Marr is unlikely to go after Johnson given the circumstances .
It would indeed look terrible for the national broadcaster to do that 48 hours after an attack in the capital. Mabe not all of CCHQ should be fired after all.
So basically a 20 minute campaign slot for Bozo then !
By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.
Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....
I expect to see all the polls in the 5-7% range.
If Opinium is below 11% I would be gobsmacked. I doubt any will be sub 7%.
Should be an Ipsos Mori out soon,just completed one this morning.
Agree 100%. I am not a brexit fanatic and brexit is secondary for me over beating Corbyn out of sight
Surely a Con loyalist such as yourself would be voting Con regardless of who the Labour leader is. And indeed, as we have seen, regardless of who the Con leader is.
I would note vote Con usually. Indeed I didn’t in 2010 and 2015 but when the alternative is Corbyn it’s a no brainer. There’s probably a lot of people like me when I look at the Con vote share.
I expect the opposite is equally true - to the extent that it may cancel things out.
The fact that Corbyn cannot actually win a majority may also be a factor - I know in discussions with others that fact was something that people hadn't picked up on and did have an impact.
Equally the wife got a second Tory leaflet yesterday that talked about the Tories trying to get a slim majority. A slim majority is the last thing Boris wants as the ERG will screw things up and provides even more attack points for Labour.
It might be if their overall favourability ratings were similar..... oh wait
I don't think that true. Replacing the Tories in the suburbs and market towns of Remania looks the best targets for seats. Look where LD council seats are. Replacing the inner city and old coalfield bastions of Labour is a tall order.Lab looks set to retain 80-90% even with a Marxist manifesto and led by Wolfie Smith's less capable brother.
No, philiph has it right.
The Lib Dems cannot replace the Tories when they're offering the exact opposite policies. Sure, they might gain some localist / tactical votes but that'd all come crashing down again, as in 2010-11, as soon as the Lib Dems were faced with real power.
The only way to a genuine breakthrough is to replace the main party nearest to them. I agree that the ex-coalfields aren't the place to start (though note that not all that long ago the LDs ran Newcastle and Sheffield), but that doesn't mean that there aren't other routes.
The LibDems have done best recently when Labour is seen to be not too extreme and so bearable in government. That was not the case in 2017. It is even less the case now. Even so, they will get millions more votes than they did two years ago.
You're right that the Lib Dems did best during the Blair years but it was a strategy driven by short-term considerations and one whose inherent contradictions ultimately brought them to the disaster of the 2015 election: you cannot ally with Labour through tactical voting as an anti-Tory party and not expect to suffer, one way or another, when Labour's popularity declines, especially if you end up having to choose between propping up a tired and unpopular incumbent govt, or the one you've been primarily working against for fifteen years. Especially if you've built a tactical rather than ideological base.
In current citcumstances, I think the Lib Dems would do best if the *Tories* were a clear centre-right (i.e. not ideological right) party and so - as you put it - not too extreme and bearable in govt. That would prevent the flight from Labour in fear of a Tory govt.
Although the Lib Dems' best bet might be a Labour government which they're not tied to in any way.
I think the LibDems problem is they are basically a splinter of Labour reflecting their SDP roots.
They are portraying themselves as a “safer” version of soft left for Tory voters but this is only ever conditional support
I think to succeed they need to build a core of their own. I would suggest (but it may be it would only appeal to me 😝) a clear liberal position on economics and social issues.
Otherwise they will always be at risk of being squashed
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Exactly - the irony is that in the US conservatives are so aggressive that they demonize fairly right-wing figures like Clinton for being socialists, whereas here our conservatives are so soft that they treat the far-left with kid gloves because, well, we have to be nice, right?
From Fraser Nelson no less (not a phrase you see very often): "There’s no sign of bold Boris. He looks at times as if he is fighting the last campaign, terrified of messing things up as Theresa May did." "Ducking the Andrew Neil interviews braved by all other leaders risks giving a sense of complacency, as if he thinks victory is in the bag and that he doesn’t need to say anything more to earn votes." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/28/fear-tories-may-yet-blow-election/
Oh, I hadn't realised Johnson had ducked Andrew Neil. I am not a fan of the farcical debates and 'gotcha' journalism, but a candidate for the highest office in the land really should be able to sit down for an hour with an intelligent and well-researched journalist, to justify themselves to the voters. Not a good look from the PM.
He hasn’t. Yet.
I think you mean he has, so far?
I thought he was still pretending scheduling difficulties? Splitting hairs though
O/T This spreadsheet gives the constituency projections from the final version of the 2017 YouGov MRP study, which wasn't quite as accurate as the first version which caught the headlines when it was first published. (They updated it several times in the run-up to polling day). The first version gave party totals of Con 310, Lab 257, whereas the final version had Con 303, Lab 269. The result was Con 318, Lab 262. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0
So they more or less hot it right apart from an underestimate of Scottish Tory seats.
Really doesn't bode well for Labour on election day.
The first YouGov MRP was released quite late last election - something like 8 or 9 days before election day. By that time they based it on a Tory lead of just 3% - which is why it was close to the final result.
But they also released the graph of the Tory lead up to that point, and two to three weeks before the election they had a 9% Tory lead. If they'd released their first MRP at that stage it would have shown a Tory majority well in excess of the 68 seats this one has shown (even though this year started with an 11pt lead, that's skewed because of the Brexit Party not standing in Tory seats).
A 3% Tory lead in 2017 is equivalent to a 6-7% lead in this election, which is probably why the Tory reaction to it was "don't be complacent".
Can someone please enlighten me, about the Tory vote percentage versus total seats. Last time, for around 43% they got 308 seats. You guv says, for approximately the same percentage, they will end up with 350+ seats. Or roughly 15% more seats than 2017 with the same voting percentage. Is this possible? Sounds strange to me. Sorry a rookie, not a Russian hot pot, here
So Bozo gets to look tough on crime for his appearance on Marr and avoids AN .
Marr is unlikely to go after Johnson given the circumstances .
It would indeed look terrible for the national broadcaster to do that 48 hours after an attack in the capital. Mabe not all of CCHQ should be fired after all.
So basically a 20 minute campaign slot for Bozo then !
We Tories have repeatedly warned you about the dangers of nationalized industries like the BBC...
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
Can someone please enlighten me, about the Tory vote percentage versus total seats. Last time, for around 43% they got 308 seats. You guv says, for approximately the same percentage, they will end up with 350+ seats. Or roughly 15% more seats than 2017 with the same voting percentage. Is this possible? Sounds strange to me. Sorry a rookie, not a Russian hot pot, here
318, not 308. But it depends on the share the other side get. It isn’t a zero sum game. If Labour sheds votes in the right/wrong places (delete according to politics) then the Tories pick them up by standing still. At the moment, Labour appear to be losing votes in the Midlands and Lancashire. That could easily see them forfeit thirty seats.
Can someone please enlighten me, about the Tory vote percentage versus total seats. Last time, for around 43% they got 308 seats. You guv says, for approximately the same percentage, they will end up with 350+ seats. Or roughly 15% more seats than 2017 with the same voting percentage. Is this possible? Sounds strange to me. Sorry a rookie, not a Russian hot pot, here
The answer can be as complicated as you like, but part of it is this: The LDs are expected to do better than last time, but not well enough to come top and win lots more seats. But well enough to take votes off Labour in seats where Labour are only a bit ahead of the Tories. The Tories win the seat not by getting more votes but by Labour getting fewer.
The more you look at the MRP YouGov numbers, the more you realise how much of a disaster they are for Labour. Few crumbs of comfort
And that is why I find it difficult to see a dramatic change in labour's fortunes not matter their recent improvement in the polls
If the polls change the MRP has to change, though? The MRP is bad for Labour, but a lot of their losses are at a central point of being very narrow. So if there's a swing of 3% from the MRP average... the outcome becomes quite different? That would be the crumb of comfort for them?
Can someone please enlighten me, about the Tory vote percentage versus total seats. Last time, for around 43% they got 308 seats. You guv says, for approximately the same percentage, they will end up with 350+ seats. Or roughly 15% more seats than 2017 with the same voting percentage. Is this possible? Sounds strange to me. Sorry a rookie, not a Russian hot pot, here
There are a few factors, but the main one is that whilst the Conservative vote stays the same, if Labour falls then it is still a swing from Labour to Conservative. So, in a seat where Labour won by say, 2k votes. The Conservative vote could stay the same but Labour fall by, 2,500 and therefore it is a Conservative gain. The fall in Labour polling means others have gone up and this will likely result in some losses to the Lib Dems or SNP, but the potential Conservative gains are significantly higher, based on current polling. Also, vote distribution matters. From what I have seen of the constituency polling and the MRP's, Labour seem to be losing more support in areas where they have lots of relatively small majorities.
Can someone please enlighten me, about the Tory vote percentage versus total seats. Last time, for around 43% they got 308 seats. You guv says, for approximately the same percentage, they will end up with 350+ seats. Or roughly 15% more seats than 2017 with the same voting percentage. Is this possible? Sounds strange to me. Sorry a rookie, not a Russian hot pot, here
318, not 308. But it depends on the share the other side get. It isn’t a zero sum game. If Labour sheds votes in the right/wrong places (delete according to politics) then the Tories pick them up by standing still. At the moment, Labour appear to be losing votes in the Midlands and Lancashire. That could easily see them forfeit thirty seats.
So more presumptive than definitice. 2017 betfair had Tories on 96% chance of majority and some predicted more than 400 seats. Gonna cash out that 350 bet on Tories. Thanks. I just want some money for Xmas. Both the Tories and Labour have screwed me , since 2002. One worse than the other, to be truthful.
Fair to say Corbynites are losing their shit on twitter over Marrgate
Fair to say they have a point,
No doubt the Corbynista's see Boris getting an opportunity to come down hard on terrorist sentencing and look like the statesman.
Furthermore it will be played across the media for the following 24 hours
I expect at some time this will expand to prohibiting all those who have gone abroad in support of terrorism from ever returning to the UK including ashamima Begum
This is a very difficult area for Corbyn and labour
The more you look at the MRP YouGov numbers, the more you realise how much of a disaster they are for Labour. Few crumbs of comfort
And that is why I find it difficult to see a dramatic change in labour's fortunes not matter their recent improvement in the polls
If the polls change the MRP has to change, though? The MRP is bad for Labour, but a lot of their losses are at a central point of being very narrow. So if there's a swing of 3% from the MRP average... the outcome becomes quite different? That would be the crumb of comfort for them?
YouGov MRP was based on the Tories being ahead by 11%. And even with that there were a large number of seats that were extremely close e.g. I think in YouGov's model, the Tories had lost 3% in the 3 days before its release and that had caused 30 seat loss.
There is no way they are that far ahead. When it gets down to 5-6%, we are fairly in hung parliament territory.
Boris has a fine line to tread over yesterdays attack. He needs to point out early release is tied in with european justice without shoving Brexit down our throats and explain how he will tighten sentencing and release procedures without looking like hes knee jerking or over playing the we can only do this if we Brexit angle. If he gets that balance right it will be a vote consolidator and gainer for him. If he goes in two footed he could lose vote share. I don't like an overtly political angle on terror or how to present policy on it but its inevitable in a GE. The young girls being slaughtered in 2017 against the backdrop of May and her police cuts was catastrophic for the Tories imo (alongside nothing has changed). This is somewhat different and unlikely to have the same sort of effect.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
Oh, hello Dom.
Somehow I don't think he has my classical knowledge! See my earlier reply.
Can someone please enlighten me, about the Tory vote percentage versus total seats. Last time, for around 43% they got 308 seats. You guv says, for approximately the same percentage, they will end up with 350+ seats. Or roughly 15% more seats than 2017 with the same voting percentage. Is this possible? Sounds strange to me. Sorry a rookie, not a Russian hot pot, here
One of the big differences is the Brexit party standing down only in Tory held seats.
They were polling maybe 8-10% before candidates were announced, and around half that now, simply because they are only standing in half the seats.
Because the seats they stood down in were all Tory, most of those % points have gone to the Tories, which boosts their lead in the polls.
However, to increase their seat numbers the Tories have to win in seats where the Brexit party are still standing - meaning it's actually harder for them to win MORE seats than it was in 2017. Hence the difference between the poll lead and the potential seat gains.
By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.
Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....
I expect to see all the polls in the 5-7% range.
Opinium 14% surely cant come down more than 5% in a week
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
Oh, hello Dom.
Somehow I don't think he has my classical knowledge! See my earlier reply.
Dominic Cummings has no knowledge of anything so far as I can judge.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
They have done so. They did this when he was elected. They did this in 2017. They are doing so now.
Boris has a fine line to tread over yesterdays attack. He needs to point out early release is tied in with european justice without shoving Brexit down our throats and explain how he will tighten sentencing and release procedures without looking like hes knee jerking or over playing the we can only do this if we Brexit angle. If he gets that balance right it will be a vote consolidator and gainer for him. If he goes in two footed he could lose vote share. I don't like an overtly political angle on terror or how to present policy on it but its inevitable in a GE. The young girls being slaughtered in 2017 against the backdrop of May and her police cuts was catastrophic for the Tories imo (alongside nothing has changed). This is somewhat different and unlikely to have the same sort of effect.
Is Labour going to tread a fine line now? Did Labour in 2017? Boris should go in as hard as he likes (though not Trump-hard, which he wouldn't anyway).
Maybe next week is the time to deploy Priti Patel ... who can offer to debate Diane Abbott on the topic anytime, anywhere...
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Spot on. There have been plenty of examples of people like Jeremy & John getting in to power, and they never end with them later leaving in a free and fair election. Total nonsense to believe that we're too modern, and too British, for the same thing to happen here.
By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.
Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....
I expect to see all the polls in the 5-7% range.
Opinium 14% surely cant come down more than 5% in a week
I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.
I don't know when or how much or who by.
But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.
I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
Given big chunks of the student loan book are owned by the private sector, I’m curious what mechanism you are proposing for it to be written off. Debt can only be forgiven by its holder. Is this another magical “non debt bond” to be issued to first renationalise it before it’s written off? Or outright expropriation from the private sector entities that bought it? You lot would be funny if you weren’t so scary.
Much of it is due to be written off anyway, in time. The one thing the LibDems did achieve is that only a minority will ever pay the headline amounts
It is a measure of George Osborne's political genius that he saddled graduates with huge debts that many will not have to pay -- but they still have the debt to remind them not to vote Conservative.
Can someone please enlighten me, about the Tory vote percentage versus total seats. Last time, for around 43% they got 308 seats. You guv says, for approximately the same percentage, they will end up with 350+ seats. Or roughly 15% more seats than 2017 with the same voting percentage. Is this possible? Sounds strange to me. Sorry a rookie, not a Russian hot pot, here
I misread your post. As someone else explained - it's because the opposition is more split. Labour are polling nowhere near the 40% they got last time.
The Tories ran a continual YouTube ad in 2017 showing Corbyn was an IRA sympathiser. It's view count was breathlessly reported on here. It was guaranteed to destroy him.
The idea the Cons are failing to dig up dirt on Corbyn because they are so nice is beyond ridiculous.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Spot on. There have been plenty of examples of people like Jeremy & John getting in to power, and they never end with them later leaving in a free and fair election. Total nonsense to believe that we're too modern, and too British, for the same thing to happen here.
Sorry, but to suggest that the Labour leaders would want to, or even be able to subvert the democratic process is going too far. I could believe that Trump would try in the US, but he wouldn't succeed either. Calm down, dear.
What is helping Labour this time is a slight variation of that - a lot of people prefer a hung Parliament to a big Tory majority. Tory Project Fear warnings about what Corbyn would do with an overall majority miss the mark because people can see it's not happening. So tactically voting to stop a Tory landslide makes sense even for people who really dislike Corbyn and Swinson.
Yes, if you want to reduce this GE to a binary choice, that is it, a Con majority or a hung parliament, the former leading to Brexit and the latter to its probable demise. In this sense the GE is a quasi Ref2. It's Leave v Remain fought under FPTP, and since most seats are Leave seats, and the Leave vote is more consolidated, the result ought to be a clear win for Leave/Con, Boris/Brexit. I am going to be shocked if this is not the outcome.
The problem in predicting this election is who knows how the vote on 12 December will relate to the opinion polls ? I know a lot of clever statistics are being done but I have little confidence that the public polls have the adjustments right. Thus we have to rely on gut reaction and beyond the fact that OGH is not going to be overly happy with the result who knows what else.
The Tories ran a continual YouTube ad in 2017 showing Corbyn was an IRA sympathiser. It's view count was breathlessly reported on here. It was guaranteed to destroy him.
The idea the Cons are failing to dig up dirt on Corbyn because they are so nice is beyond ridiculous.
Then why are Labour attacks on Boris gradually draining his ratings? Corbyn and his acolytes throw shit at Boris all day and all night until it sticks - they aren't playing the too-nice game.
If Labour had the kind of material on Boris that the Tories have on Corbyn, we'd be looking at Venezuela in two weeks.
I am not a right wing tory as the left seem to imply is mandatory for voting conservative. Indeed for all Boris's faults, and he has a great many, he is a liberal leaning conservative
I never thought you were particularly right wing. Boris? Hard to know what he really is. I suppose it might soon become a little clearer.
Which given he is still officially neutral shows that the approvlevel didn't really mean much - they didn't and don't like it, but don't care when push comes to shove.
The day they elected the voter repellent out of her depth hypocrite
Tory Swinson.
Typical Labour - should be attacking the Tories. The best you can expect is a hung parliament. You won't get any support from the LibDems while Corbyn is in charge, but you could get a little leeway to run a minority administration if you promise a 2nd referendum. Going about it the way you are you will lose AGAIN and deserve to.
Please BBC, given Marr diplomatic toothache and send Neil along instead...
Marr may well surprise on the upside, since he will know that people think this is Boris getting away from something tough and presumably will try to address that.
The more you look at the MRP YouGov numbers, the more you realise how much of a disaster they are for Labour. Few crumbs of comfort
And that is why I find it difficult to see a dramatic change in labour's fortunes not matter their recent improvement in the polls
If the polls change the MRP has to change, though?
In the final stages of the 2017 campaign, the conventional polls changed but the MRP didn't. So what you say is not necessarily so.
On that point, does anyone know whether YouGov will be releasing regular updates of the MRP?
When it was originally released, some people were suggesting that as it was an average over a week's polling, it was already half a week out of date and would have missed the drop in the Tory lead to 7 points reflected by ComRes (completed 26 Nov) and ICM (completed 25 Nov).
A YouGov update now would show whether there was any truth in that. 25-26 Nov would be in the middle of the week's polling that went into the MRP.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
Why haven't the tories attacked him as a terrorist sympathiser? I don't get it.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
Why haven't the tories attacked him as a terrorist sympathiser? I don't get it.
They have before and to the extent it works it is maxed out.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
Why haven't the tories attacked him as a terrorist sympathiser? I don't get it.
They have before and to the extent it works it is maxed out.
Labour never assumes that their attacks on the Tories have "maxed out" - they just keep cycling them endlessly, day in, day out. Occasionally they throw in a new one - yesterday's was a 25-year-old jokey article, FFS!
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
Why haven't the tories attacked him as a terrorist sympathiser? I don't get it.
THEY HAVE! Did you wake up from cryogenic suspension? Check out the reporting from the 2017 election, it will be illuminating. Also, we landed on the moon and the Berlin Wall came down.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Because they are.
The leadership clearly isn't
I'm sorry that's just rubbish. I don't agree with them on everything but to say they're not democratic politicians is absurd, and it's also dangerous.
The more you look at the MRP YouGov numbers, the more you realise how much of a disaster they are for Labour. Few crumbs of comfort
And that is why I find it difficult to see a dramatic change in labour's fortunes not matter their recent improvement in the polls
If the polls change the MRP has to change, though?
In the final stages of the 2017 campaign, the conventional polls changed but the MRP didn't. So what you say is not necessarily so.
On that point, does anyone know whether YouGov will be releasing regular updates of the MRP?
When it was originally released, some people were suggesting that as it was an average over a week's polling, it was already half a week out of date and would have missed the drop in the Tory lead to 7 points reflected by ComRes (completed 26 Nov) and ICM (completed 25 Nov).
A YouGov update now would show whether there was any truth in that. 25-26 Nov would be in the middle of the week's polling that went into the MRP.
In 2017 it was updated every day in the final week.
It is based on a rolling 7 days 7000-per-day sample.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
Why haven't the tories attacked him as a terrorist sympathiser? I don't get it.
They have before and to the extent it works it is maxed out.
Labour never assumes that their attacks on the Tories have "maxed out" - they just keep cycling them endlessly, day in, day out. Occasionally they throw in a new one - yesterday's was a 25-year-old jokey article, FFS!
At some point attacks become counter productive, even if they shouldn't. The NHS is an example where no matter how much it us used as an attack it always works, to a greater or lesser degree, without starting to be counter productive. Other issues have a different range.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Because they are.
I agree with you they’re pretty ordinary, if we’re using that as euphemism for ‘not very good.’ Similar things may be said of the leadership of other parties also...
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Spot on. There have been plenty of examples of people like Jeremy & John getting in to power, and they never end with them later leaving in a free and fair election. Total nonsense to believe that we're too modern, and too British, for the same thing to happen here.
Sorry, but to suggest that the Labour leaders would want to, or even be able to subvert the democratic process is going too far. I could believe that Trump would try in the US, but he wouldn't succeed either. Calm down, dear.
You might be surprised at the views espoused by Abbott and McMao in the past then....
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Because they are.
The leadership clearly isn't
I'm sorry that's just rubbish. I don't agree with them on everything but to say they're not democratic politicians is absurd, and it's also dangerous.
All of their heroes started off winning elections and ended up winning 'elections'
I know you think it couldn't happen here, but the only thing dangerous is to be so blase about it.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
Why haven't the tories attacked him as a terrorist sympathiser? I don't get it.
They have before and to the extent it works it is maxed out.
Labour never assumes that their attacks on the Tories have "maxed out" - they just keep cycling them endlessly, day in, day out. Occasionally they throw in a new one - yesterday's was a 25-year-old jokey article, FFS!
At some point attacks become counter productive, even if they shouldn't. The NHS is an example where no matter how much it us used as an attack it always works, to a greater or lesser degree, without starting to be counter productive. Other issues have a different range.
If the QC was feeling cocky they could point out that this proves how good at their job they are.
Yes. That's what they do, and they are standing by ready for the day when you are accused of a murder you didn't do. And those who think those charged with very serious offences and being prosecuted by top prosecutors with all the resources of the state and the police at their fingertips should not be represented by equally able people should say so clearly or stop criticising the job they do.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Because they are.
The leadership clearly isn't
I'm sorry that's just rubbish. I don't agree with them on everything but to say they're not democratic politicians is absurd, and it's also dangerous.
All of their heroes started off winning elections and ended up winning 'elections'
I know you think it couldn't happen here, but the only thing dangerous is to be so blase about it.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Because they are.
The leadership clearly isn't
I'm sorry that's just rubbish. I don't agree with them on everything but to say they're not democratic politicians is absurd, and it's also dangerous.
I think there is convincing evidence with respect to Corbyn & McDonell and their core supporters. They have uncritically supported contemporary and historical movements and regimes that have are repressive, violent and undemocratic. McDonell is on record supporting anti-democratic direct action. Their writings and utterances are clearly based on a kind of simplistic Marxism. Their key advisors Milne and Murray have come out with disturbing views. I know its a biased source but here is a starting point grabbed at random https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/11893307/The-disturbing-roots-of-Corbynism-exposed.html
Before anybody dismisses the content because of the source they should refute the facts in detail.
If the QC was feeling cocky they could point out that this proves how good at their job they are.
Seems to me that’s exactly what a bio like that is aimed at doing? Good for business if you make your living out of reducing jail terms.
I get that it leaves a bad taste, but I think we’re in a dodgy place if the system doesn’t let everyone get their case argued properly in court. Unless there’s evidence a lawyer has slipped from enthusiastic advocacy into lies, surely the responsibility lies with prosecutors and judges to build and decide the case effectively. Not a great look for society if you ask defence lawyers to go easy because he’s probably a wrong’un and we’ve made the police, CPS and HMCTS so “efficient” they don’t want to be troubled with This Sort of Thing.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Because they are.
The leadership clearly isn't
I'm sorry that's just rubbish. I don't agree with them on everything but to say they're not democratic politicians is absurd, and it's also dangerous.
I think there is convincing evidence with respect to Corbyn & McDonell and their core supporters. They have uncritically supported contemporary and historical movements and regimes that have are repressive, violent and undemocratic. McDonell is on record supporting anti-democratic direct action. Their writings and utterances are clearly based on a kind of simplistic Marxism. Their key advisors Milne and Murray have come out with disturbing views. I know its a biased source but here is a starting point grabbed at random https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/11893307/The-disturbing-roots-of-Corbynism-exposed.html
Before anybody dismisses the content because of the source they should refute the facts in detail.
These attacks work in the USA because its usually a different candidate everytime.
Any attacks against Corbyn this time will be treated by most voters as old news - after all
1) the same things were said in 2017. 2) Its unlikely that Corbyn will get a majority so even if he got to No 10 he will be reined in a bit.
Imagine being the type of scumbag that gets terrorists out of jail.
Imagine being a lawyer doing his job?
Do you think murderers don't have the right to a lawyer, or to have a fair trial?
If you are going down this path, it will get bad very quickly. This is how democracy dies and we cease to be free. Please stop and assess the situation.
If the QC was feeling cocky they could point out that this proves how good at their job they are.
Yes. That's what they do, and they are standing by ready for the day when you are accused of a murder you didn't do. And those who think those charged with very serious offences and being prosecuted by top prosecutors with all the resources of the state and the police at their fingertips should not be represented by equally able people should say so clearly or stop criticising the job they do.
It is known as doing your job. I hope people aren't going to start criticising barristers for defending criminals next.
"Tories leave the North behind" Labour leaflet landed today. No mention of the big three: Brexit, NHS and Corbyn. Leaflet focuses on infrastructure investment in the North. The change of strategy begins in earnest. I imagine it is targeted at commuters in the M62 marginals.
The one thing that might cost the Tories outright victory is that, ironically, they are too nice. Corbyn's ratings are rising, so what should they do? Tank them at any cost, the way Labour is trying to do to Boris' ratings: dredge up 25-year old articles, wave dodgy dossiers, make stuff up - it doesn't matter, just get enough muck to stick with enough of the electorate on a daily basis and his ratings will stall, simple.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
A great many people are mistakenly treating Labour as thought they are ordinary democratic politicians.
Spot on. There have been plenty of examples of people like Jeremy & John getting in to power, and they never end with them later leaving in a free and fair election. Total nonsense to believe that we're too modern, and too British, for the same thing to happen here.
Sorry, but to suggest that the Labour leaders would want to, or even be able to subvert the democratic process is going too far. I could believe that Trump would try in the US, but he wouldn't succeed either. Calm down, dear.
You might be surprised at the views espoused by Abbott and McMao in the past then....
No. But thinking they will take treasonable actions is taking things too far.
Can’t say that it has gone wrong. The Lib Dem’s have targeted 50 seats. If they win 15 of those that would be a success - 20+ would be a great success.
Comments
Personally I think the upfront payment of fees has improved the focus of students and has not been all bad. The high interest rate is bizarre and should be reduced, so the burden can be reduced by long term inflation, same as all other debt. And high value add degrees (STEM etc...) should be subsidised (potentially 100%) by the state, subject to certain conditions. It would be worth funding this in the gilt market if necessary, for degrees where you can evidence the productivity kick-back.
Or how about instead we just tear up English law contracts and bring the asset book back into public hands for free. Squeeze the Lib Dem’s by another 2% here, to go with the 2% there from the Waspi women. Good old Jezza. He’s not so bad as those evil Tories.
But, the fees for US universities are much higher -- even for in-state students attending state universities. Fees for the Ivy League are much higher still.
I suspect if you replace fees with less generous government grants, the universities will respond by admitting higher and higher proportions of overseas students. If I recollect correctly, we were able to establish that this had happened at Edinburgh University (in effect, it is how the SNP's pledge is actually being paid for).
I personally would be happy if fewer UK students went to university, but they received more support.
The US Republicans are so, so much more effective at this. We should just hire their opposition research department to replace CCHQ.
Tick tock.......
Marr is unlikely to go after Johnson given the circumstances .
https://youtu.be/9ClYy0MxsU0
They are portraying themselves as a “safer” version of soft left for Tory voters but this is only ever conditional support
I think to succeed they need to build a core of their own. I would suggest (but it may be it would only appeal to me 😝) a clear liberal position on economics and social issues.
Otherwise they will always be at risk of being squashed
But they also released the graph of the Tory lead up to that point, and two to three weeks before the election they had a 9% Tory lead. If they'd released their first MRP at that stage it would have shown a Tory majority well in excess of the 68 seats this one has shown (even though this year started with an 11pt lead, that's skewed because of the Brexit Party not standing in Tory seats).
A 3% Tory lead in 2017 is equivalent to a 6-7% lead in this election, which is probably why the Tory reaction to it was "don't be complacent".
Last time, for around 43% they got 308 seats. You guv says, for approximately the same percentage, they will end up with 350+ seats. Or roughly 15% more seats than 2017 with the same voting percentage. Is this possible? Sounds strange to me.
Sorry a rookie, not a Russian hot pot, here
But it depends on the share the other side get. It isn’t a zero sum game. If Labour sheds votes in the right/wrong places (delete according to politics) then the Tories pick them up by standing still.
At the moment, Labour appear to be losing votes in the Midlands and Lancashire. That could easily see them forfeit thirty seats.
So, in a seat where Labour won by say, 2k votes. The Conservative vote could stay the same but Labour fall by, 2,500 and therefore it is a Conservative gain.
The fall in Labour polling means others have gone up and this will likely result in some losses to the Lib Dems or SNP, but the potential Conservative gains are significantly higher, based on current polling.
Also, vote distribution matters. From what I have seen of the constituency polling and the MRP's, Labour seem to be losing more support in areas where they have lots of relatively small majorities.
Thanks. I just want some money for Xmas. Both the Tories and Labour have screwed me , since 2002. One worse than the other, to be truthful.
Furthermore it will be played across the media for the following 24 hours
I expect at some time this will expand to prohibiting all those who have gone abroad in support of terrorism from ever returning to the UK including ashamima Begum
This is a very difficult area for Corbyn and labour
There is no way they are that far ahead. When it gets down to 5-6%, we are fairly in hung parliament territory.
If he gets that balance right it will be a vote consolidator and gainer for him. If he goes in two footed he could lose vote share.
I don't like an overtly political angle on terror or how to present policy on it but its inevitable in a GE.
The young girls being slaughtered in 2017 against the backdrop of May and her police cuts was catastrophic for the Tories imo (alongside nothing has changed). This is somewhat different and unlikely to have the same sort of effect.
The day they elected the voter repellent out of her depth hypocrite
Tory Swinson.
They were polling maybe 8-10% before candidates were announced, and around half that now, simply because they are only standing in half the seats.
Because the seats they stood down in were all Tory, most of those % points have gone to the Tories, which boosts their lead in the polls.
However, to increase their seat numbers the Tories have to win in seats where the Brexit party are still standing - meaning it's actually harder for them to win MORE seats than it was in 2017. Hence the difference between the poll lead and the potential seat gains.
It's already priced in.
'I'm going to be your PM' combined with
'And on day one of my premiership, 17.4 million of you can go f*** yourselves'
Arrogant, spectacularly wrongheaded and politically wet behind the ears.
The electorate have or are about to give their answer
Maybe next week is the time to deploy Priti Patel ... who can offer to debate Diane Abbott on the topic anytime, anywhere...
It's view count was breathlessly reported on here.
It was guaranteed to destroy him.
The idea the Cons are failing to dig up dirt on Corbyn because they are so nice is beyond ridiculous.
I could believe that Trump would try in the US, but he wouldn't succeed either.
Calm down, dear.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/dundee/1031371/video-dundee-west-candidate-jim-malone-accused-of-anti-semitism-in-newly-unearthed-speech/?utm_source=twitter
If Labour had the kind of material on Boris that the Tories have on Corbyn, we'd be looking at Venezuela in two weeks.
The best you can expect is a hung parliament. You won't get any support from the LibDems while Corbyn is in charge, but you could get a little leeway to run a minority administration if you promise a 2nd referendum.
Going about it the way you are you will lose AGAIN and deserve to.
When it was originally released, some people were suggesting that as it was an average over a week's polling, it was already half a week out of date and would have missed the drop in the Tory lead to 7 points reflected by ComRes (completed 26 Nov) and ICM (completed 25 Nov).
A YouGov update now would show whether there was any truth in that. 25-26 Nov would be in the middle of the week's polling that went into the MRP.
It is based on a rolling 7 days 7000-per-day sample.
Similar things may be said of the leadership of other parties also...
I know you think it couldn't happen here, but the only thing dangerous is to be so blase about it.
Before anybody dismisses the content because of the source they should refute the facts in detail.
I get that it leaves a bad taste, but I think we’re in a dodgy place if the system doesn’t let everyone get their case argued properly in court. Unless there’s evidence a lawyer has slipped from enthusiastic advocacy into lies, surely the responsibility lies with prosecutors and judges to build and decide the case effectively. Not a great look for society if you ask defence lawyers to go easy because he’s probably a wrong’un and we’ve made the police, CPS and HMCTS so “efficient” they don’t want to be troubled with This Sort of Thing.
Any attacks against Corbyn this time will be treated by most voters as old news - after all
1) the same things were said in 2017.
2) Its unlikely that Corbyn will get a majority so even if he got to No 10 he will be reined in a bit.
Do you think murderers don't have the right to a lawyer, or to have a fair trial?
If you are going down this path, it will get bad very quickly. This is how democracy dies and we cease to be free. Please stop and assess the situation.
Labour leaflet landed today. No mention of the big three: Brexit, NHS and Corbyn.
Leaflet focuses on infrastructure investment in the North. The change of strategy begins in earnest. I imagine it is targeted at commuters in the M62 marginals.
But thinking they will take treasonable actions is taking things too far.