Fingers crossed, just put 250£ on Tories crossing 350, based on the Youguv result. Still not sure though, what is the difference between June 2017 and Dec 2019. Corbyn was there in June 2017 too and hated with equal venom. Still 40% voted for labour. What has changed, for that to drop to 32% in 2019? A strong leaver? Bojo compared to a remainer May? Or are people are just fed up? Went through some of the posts in May-June 2017 and with a similar voting percentage, Tories were predicted to win 400 seats and nearly a 90% chance of majority. That off course dropped dramatically in the last week. Something does not add up
Indeed, something doesn’t add up. Isn’t 250£ the tell of a post disseminated by a Russian disinformation operation?
-- The only Russian connection I have, is a love for Vodka--
Well I don't think I've ever seen a UK citizen write any monetary amount with the currency symbol afterwards. That's a very eastern european thing.
Also shaky use of the indefinite article - which doesn't exist in Russian.
From Fraser Nelson no less (not a phrase you see very often): "There’s no sign of bold Boris. He looks at times as if he is fighting the last campaign, terrified of messing things up as Theresa May did." "Ducking the Andrew Neil interviews braved by all other leaders risks giving a sense of complacency, as if he thinks victory is in the bag and that he doesn’t need to say anything more to earn votes." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/28/fear-tories-may-yet-blow-election/
Oh, I hadn't realised Johnson had ducked Andrew Neil. I am not a fan of the farcical debates and 'gotcha' journalism, but a candidate for the highest office in the land really should be able to sit down for an hour with an intelligent and well-researched journalist, to justify themselves to the voters. Not a good look from the PM.
Did you see the coverage of his LBC phone in with Ferrari it’s no wonder they won’t let him go on Neil.
That coverage happened because he ducked the Andrew Neil interview.
Johnson hasn't ducked the Neil interview, yet. The signs are that he will though.
I think this is a fair point. People have swiveled to attacking Boris for possibly no dealing at the end of next year, a fair thing to be very worried about, but the immediacy of the threat is gone, theres no prospect of there being no withdrawal agreement if Boris wins. Boris's deal, bad or not, fundamentally changed the shape of the election. Like Labours' position of tissue thin neutrality it gives an excuse to old supporters to stick with them despite misgivings .
Yes. The Deal and the Benn Act set this up for Boris. The opposition should have been more ruthless. They should have blocked his Deal and nothing else. Forced Boris to own No Deal or 31 Oct Extension. Either way would have led to a GE defeat for him in fairly short order.
Yes, Bercow, Benn, Grieve and friends were too clever by half, they won the battle but lost the war with Johnson, Gove and Cummings.
From Fraser Nelson no less (not a phrase you see very often): "There’s no sign of bold Boris. He looks at times as if he is fighting the last campaign, terrified of messing things up as Theresa May did." "Ducking the Andrew Neil interviews braved by all other leaders risks giving a sense of complacency, as if he thinks victory is in the bag and that he doesn’t need to say anything more to earn votes." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/28/fear-tories-may-yet-blow-election/
This. As he himself has suggested he is a marmite politician, he will attract hate, but people do like bold Boris, wacky Boris, confident Boris. Instead his supporters talk of cautious manifestos, if not risking media appearances. Sure those are risks, hes mercurial, but it's taking away his strengths to operate as they have.
The LDs problem is simple, most centre left Remainers have gone back to Labour in seats where they are best placed to beat the Tories under FPTP while most 2017 Tory Remainers have stuck with the blues over fear of Corbyn. Leave voters of course would never vote LD anyway as they oppose the LDs stop Brexit policy.
However while nationally the LDs are polling no higher than 13% ie the Liberal voteshare in 1979 pre SDP Liberal Alliance, in some seats they are likely to do much better in Remain areaa where they are seen as the main challengers to the Tories e.g. Cheltenham, St Albans, Richmond Park, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster and Finchley and Golders Green or Labour e.g. Sheffield Hallam.
Part of the problem too is still the legacy of the Coalition, of which Swinson was part, which means Labour voters will not back the LDs because of the legacy if austerity. I expect Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger though to have perhaps the biggest pro LD swings of the night as both were Labour MPs during the Coalition years and thus untainted by the Coalition and more likely to squeeze the Labour vote.
Indeed if Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster (and the Labour vote there is much bigger than the Tory lead on current polls) he would be ideally placed to lead the LDs as an ex member of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet, untainted by the Coalition and if Labour lose again under Corbyn and replace him with another hard left leader like Pidcock then the LDs get their chance. Umunna looks like a PM, Pidcock does not and Umunna could present himself as a UK Macron or Obama at the subsequent general election after 15 years of Tory rule.
Swinson might even lose her seat to the SNP on current polling speeding up that process but it will be close, in my view she is better placed to lead the LDs at Holyrood if that proves the case, she is more likely to appeal to Scottish Unionists and Tories against the SNP where there is no risk of stopping Brexit than she is UK centre left voters against Corbyn.
Good analysis HYUFD.
Thanks
Yes, more posts like this please, Huyfd.
Yes, it is refreshing to see some actual thinking from HY, instead of the usual ill founded party spin.
Do many here think the Tories will equal their 2017 vote share?
I think it will be very close. Since I expect labour to be a couple points down on 2017, if the tories can stand still it will be what wins it for them.
Do many here think the Tories will equal their 2017 vote share?
50/50 chance I'd say
I think they'l get less personally, somewhere around 40%
I'm basing my assumption on current polling and that I anticipate pollsters have slightly overcorrected for 2017. If the tory share drops in average polling then no, but where it is right now I think they would get 42 to 44 on polling day (so 50/50 if we allow rounding, maybe a 40% chance of beating the precise 43.4 figure)
On topic, I think the LibDems severely underestimated how many strongly Remain seats have strongly Remain Labour MPs (e.g. Cambridge). Those sitting MPs have "out-Remained" the LibDem candidates in the enthusiasm for the EU. Seats like Cambridge or the London Labour seats will be much tougher to take than they expected.
Labour has tried to placate both its Leave and Remain supporters, but I think less successfully than in 2017. The LibDems stance has forced Labour to protect its Remain flank, more so than they would have ideally liked to maintain both tranches of supporters.
It is why the election will be decided in the Labour Leave seats.
Morning all. A Norwich South update. I'm baffled by the greens lack of effort in the seat, which used to be one of the 3 or 4 they talked up the most and still has good council representation. Placards and posters almost non existent, no canvass (I usually get them twice even for council elections). Its bizarre. There is little enthusiasm for Lewis but enough that he is very comfortable and the LDs are also invisible but have done some leafleting, the Tories are doing their usual Norwich south secret squirrel under the radar, shore up the core stuff. Lab/con/ld/green/bxp 50/25/12/8/5 perhaps.
Isn't the simple truth that The Greens will do as badly as ever in the General Election, despite the heightened awareness and concern as regards Climate Change and that they don't have a cat in hell's chance of increasing their Parliamentary representation beyond the Sussex Downs?
Very true but here in Norwich there has always been a total wash of green placards In the studenty areas even for euros and local elections. I've seen a couple of green boards up only this time. They have several seats on Norwich council. Its like they cant be arsed!
Several have appeared in the Earlham Road area in the last few days. Late to the party perhaps?
The tories rather than offering a second referendum went for an election to get their brexit done. I am still at a loss as to why it is not reasonable position then for Lib Dem’s to fight on revoke. This election lacks any passion. People voting negatively in large part. The result will be a government without a clear mandate the population supports.
Morning all. A Norwich South update. I'm baffled by the greens lack of effort in the seat, which used to be one of the 3 or 4 they talked up the most and still has good council representation. Placards and posters almost non existent, no canvass (I usually get them twice even for council elections). Its bizarre. There is little enthusiasm for Lewis but enough that he is very comfortable and the LDs are also invisible but have done some leafleting, the Tories are doing their usual Norwich south secret squirrel under the radar, shore up the core stuff. Lab/con/ld/green/bxp 50/25/12/8/5 perhaps.
Isn't the simple truth that The Greens will do as badly as ever in the General Election, despite the heightened awareness and concern as regards Climate Change and that they don't have a cat in hell's chance of increasing their Parliamentary representation beyond the Sussex Downs?
Very true but here in Norwich there has always been a total wash of green placards In the studenty areas even for euros and local elections. I've seen a couple of green boards up only this time. They have several seats on Norwich council. Its like they cant be arsed!
Several have appeared in the Earlham Road area in the last few days. Late to the party perhaps?
Ultimately what does for the Lib Dems and always will do is FPTP. The leadership and policies can influence things around the margins, as can the national political scene, but we’re still talking a tightly bound range of around 6-18% vote share over many decades, and a highly localised scrap for a few seats.
The talk of the LDs needing to “replace the tories” or “replace Labour” is FPTP thinking, and at heart this is not what most members (I think, and I speak as one) want. We want a more pluralistic party politics where there is space for a properly left wing party, a national Conservative party, greens, centrist / liberal parties, regionalist and separatist parties and even the far right and left. In a PR environment we wouldn’t need to replace any party. Just properly play our part and safe voters from having to make tactical judgments about who’s least worst or best placed to defeat the real enemy.
So ultimately we are doomed to a Sisyphus-like existence until one of the big parties finally pushes through voting reform. This election has convinced me we’ll never make the breakthrough under FPTP.
Jo could certainly have gone with a different tone, and that could have helped. Maybe in hindsight revoke was a mistake - I think it put off a lot of wavering Tories, but in the end it’s fear of Corbyn that has really done for that demographic (classic FPTP effect). But the manifesto is pretty good, objectively in my view the strongest of the national parties. I’d be willing to bet that with Davey or Moran leading, no revoke policy, and a more helpful TV debate structure we’d still be sniffing around in the mid teens vote share and lucky to get to 30 seats.
On topic: Where did the LD's go wrong? Megalomania. They are not "Jo Swinson's Lib Dems". That makes it look like the election is about electing her. The focus is on the wrong place. They should be remembering that it is the voter who matters, not Jo Swinson. Perhaps they should have put "Your Lib Dems" at the top? "Vote Jo Swinson" has too many shades of similarity to "Vote Theresa May"
It might work if she were really popular or even just well known, but the reality is the new leader of the LDs was probably not known by most people.
Did I just see somebody who quoted Der Sturmer to attack the Jews accuse somebody else of being ‘far right?’ ..
I was quoting Israeli Jewish friends with whom I lived. Their point was intellectually astute and one that behoves a considered response. Don't isolate Antisemitism from other forms of insidious racism, which are also on the increase. If you do, you risk playing into the hands of the very people you most oppose and fear. Antisemitism is a scourge but, for all the horrendous history, it's one form of an evil not an isolated or 'special' one.
It's a brilliant point. Sadly not originally mine
It’s a bit like whack-a-mole
You should hit anti-semitism hard when it pops its head out (which it is doing a lot at the moment).
That doesn’t mean that anti-Muslim sentiment (I don’t like “Islamophobia” as it doesn’t distinguish between legitimating anti-Islamist views - ie the ideology behind yesterday‘s attack - and a more generalised racist mindset) should be tolerated. It’s a different form of evil
But to say do nothing about anti-semitism because “what about” is shameful
Was Sam Gyimah a candidate in the Tory leadership election? I confess I didn’t realise that.
Yes - but quit very early when he discovered he wasn’t going to get more than 3 votes.
Still it was good preparation for joining an unpopular enterprise.
Now that the dust has settles and PBers have calmed down a touch, does anyone think that Mike`s shenanighans will have any effect on ANY constituency outcome? I`m a tad concerned about the effect on my bets that this curve-ball may have.
Just shows how principled the Libdems are, they take in all the cowards and no-users who fled Tories and labour and weeks later try to pretend they are Libdems, is it any wonder they are circling the drain/
The Libdems won't grow as a party until they learn that the party they have to defeat first is Labour and then Conservatives. They have had two opportunities (2015 and 2019) and flunked them both. The utter stupidity of pacts and advocating tactical voting kills them.
I remember when support for the SNP was in the low teens and support for independence was sub-10%. We did not become the largest party in the country by forming pacts with our opponents. Nor by encouraging our supporters to cast their votes for other parties. These tactical voting websites are largely a Lib Dem ruse. But they are hugely counterproductive.
The LD propensity for cross party working, consensus, tactical voting and pacts is not a mistake, it fits with a world view of tolerance. We favour proportional representation and a more continental style system of government rather than the duality of established Westminster government I think Scotland is reshaping to have a single Unionist party and a single Nationalist one, but south of the border that dynamic does not apply.
As a Scandinavian - I am a Nordic citizen - and an active trade-unionist, you do not need to persuade me of the merits of discussion, mutual respect, diplomacy, engagement, cooperation, consultation, teamwork, self-sacrifice, cross-party working, consensus and tolerance. I live and breathe in that milieu.
However, you are putting the cart before the horse. The Nordics did not get to where they are today by cooperating with deeply conservative forces within their countries, but quite the opposite: by robustly and consistently opposing them.
The Lib Dems are too much like kittens rolling over on their backs wanting everybody to like them and tickle their tummies. They need to be more like Swedish tigers, or Scottish lions.
I think this slightly over-eggs the nordic pudding - the whole model of how you live in Denmark is very different to the UK and the generally agreed culture norms are an interesting mix of hippytastic greendom and small-town self-regard and community activity is central to how things are done - BUT I think those 'deeply conservative' forces are simply embedded into most Danes because they like the Danish model and want to protect it - racists don't get a free pass here but imagine UK government ministers openly discussing 'non-western' immigration as being a problem, or mandating that people shake hands before they can be a citizen as 'it's how we do it in Denmark and you are not in Syria anymore'.
From Fraser Nelson no less (not a phrase you see very often): "There’s no sign of bold Boris. He looks at times as if he is fighting the last campaign, terrified of messing things up as Theresa May did." "Ducking the Andrew Neil interviews braved by all other leaders risks giving a sense of complacency, as if he thinks victory is in the bag and that he doesn’t need to say anything more to earn votes." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/28/fear-tories-may-yet-blow-election/
Oh, I hadn't realised Johnson had ducked Andrew Neil. I am not a fan of the farcical debates and 'gotcha' journalism, but a candidate for the highest office in the land really should be able to sit down for an hour with an intelligent and well-researched journalist, to justify themselves to the voters. Not a good look from the PM.
Sometimes the public are just venting when they sign a petition and end up being shocked, and holding it against you, if you're a politician vying for power who declares you quite literally agree with them.
Is the actual answer to what’s gone wrong for the Lib Dems actually that the fear of corbyn or the loathing of Johnson is forcing people to vote negatively to stop the other one coupled with limited air time that the lib dems are getting.
Yes, I think it is largely this. Centrist Tories who oppose Brexit oppose Corbyn even more. Many Labour supporters who hate Corbyn and Brexit, loathe Johnson even more. The mistake many of us made - including me - was to believe that this time it would be different. In the end, though, first past the post will do what it has always done: force millions to vote against what they see as the worst option. Yet, despite this, the LibDems look set to gain many more votes, if not seats.
Is the actual answer to what’s gone wrong for the Lib Dems actually that the fear of corbyn or the loathing of Johnson is forcing people to vote negatively to stop the other one coupled with limited air time that the lib dems are getting.
Yes. People always remember 1983 when the centre party(ies) almost came through the middle, the other two parties being politically so far apart. But the centre party has done well, arguably better, when the two parties are relatively close in terms of policy and hence the risk of one or the other isn't so dramatic. Think the two elections in 1974, or 1997.
Off beat, slightly What's up in Cantebury? Seems like Tories are taking it back? Winchester, despite voting 58% remain, is too Blue, to switch to LD. Just like Blackburn or Preston
There’s a strong LibDem tendency in Hampshire - Winchester and Newbury (albeit just over the border in Berks) are two of their most famous victories.
O/T This spreadsheet gives the constituency projections from the final version of the 2017 YouGov MRP study, which wasn't quite as accurate as the first version which caught the headlines when it was first published. (They updated it several times in the run-up to polling day). The first version gave party totals of Con 310, Lab 257, whereas the final version had Con 303, Lab 269. The result was Con 318, Lab 262. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0
Looks like the first Yougov MRP will be close to the final result then unless a major change in polling over the next 12 days
The Libdems won't grow as a party until they learn that the party they have to defeat first is Labour and then Conservatives. They have had two opportunities (2015 and 2019) and flunked them both. The utter stupidity of pacts and advocating tactical voting kills them.
I don't think that true. Replacing the Tories in the suburbs and market towns of Remania looks the best targets for seats. Look where LD council seats are. Replacing the inner city and old coalfield bastions of Labour is a tall order.Lab looks set to retain 80-90% even with a Marxist manifesto and led by Wolfie Smith's less capable brother.
No, philiph has it right.
The Lib Dems cannot replace the Tories when they're offering the exact opposite policies. Sure, they might gain some localist / tactical votes but that'd all come crashing down again, as in 2010-11, as soon as the Lib Dems were faced with real power.
The only way to a genuine breakthrough is to replace the main party nearest to them. I agree that the ex-coalfields aren't the place to start (though note that not all that long ago the LDs ran Newcastle and Sheffield), but that doesn't mean that there aren't other routes.
The LibDems have done best recently when Labour is seen to be not too extreme and so bearable in government. That was not the case in 2017. It is even less the case now. Even so, they will get millions more votes than they did two years ago.
You're right that the Lib Dems did best during the Blair years but it was a strategy driven by short-term considerations and one whose inherent contradictions ultimately brought them to the disaster of the 2015 election: you cannot ally with Labour through tactical voting as an anti-Tory party and not expect to suffer, one way or another, when Labour's popularity declines, especially if you end up having to choose between propping up a tired and unpopular incumbent govt, or the one you've been primarily working against for fifteen years. Especially if you've built a tactical rather than ideological base.
In current citcumstances, I think the Lib Dems would do best if the *Tories* were a clear centre-right (i.e. not ideological right) party and so - as you put it - not too extreme and bearable in govt. That would prevent the flight from Labour in fear of a Tory govt.
Although the Lib Dems' best bet might be a Labour government which they're not tied to in any way.
Layla Moran would have been a good choice too IMO.
Sorry, I don't think the Leader is the problem. I like Davey and Moran but I don't think they would have done any better.
(Btw, if you want to see lots of Yellow Peril posters and boards, drive through Oxford West and Abingdon constituency. I think you get fined for not showing one.)
Part of the problem is that great uncle Vince clung on for at least a year too long, doing less than not very much. Had Swinson had more time to refine her public image, it’s not impossible that she’d have done somewhat better. I’m old enough to remember even Thatcher being pretty dire in public at the start of her leadership.
She has had plenty of practice when out Torying the Tories for years. No excuses she is just crap.
From Fraser Nelson no less (not a phrase you see very often): "There’s no sign of bold Boris. He looks at times as if he is fighting the last campaign, terrified of messing things up as Theresa May did." "Ducking the Andrew Neil interviews braved by all other leaders risks giving a sense of complacency, as if he thinks victory is in the bag and that he doesn’t need to say anything more to earn votes." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/28/fear-tories-may-yet-blow-election/
Oh, I hadn't realised Johnson had ducked Andrew Neil. I am not a fan of the farcical debates and 'gotcha' journalism, but a candidate for the highest office in the land really should be able to sit down for an hour with an intelligent and well-researched journalist, to justify themselves to the voters. Not a good look from the PM.
Did you see the coverage of his LBC phone in with Ferrari it’s no wonder they won’t let him go on Neil.
That coverage happened because he ducked the Andrew Neil interview.
Johnson hasn't ducked the Neil interview, yet. The signs are that he will though.
If he isn't going to then hes allowed a rumour to spread that's hes a big chicken for no reason.
From Fraser Nelson no less (not a phrase you see very often): "There’s no sign of bold Boris. He looks at times as if he is fighting the last campaign, terrified of messing things up as Theresa May did." "Ducking the Andrew Neil interviews braved by all other leaders risks giving a sense of complacency, as if he thinks victory is in the bag and that he doesn’t need to say anything more to earn votes." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/28/fear-tories-may-yet-blow-election/
Oh, I hadn't realised Johnson had ducked Andrew Neil. I am not a fan of the farcical debates and 'gotcha' journalism, but a candidate for the highest office in the land really should be able to sit down for an hour with an intelligent and well-researched journalist, to justify themselves to the voters. Not a good look from the PM.
Excellent piece by Mr Herdson, I'd have also mentioned that the Lib Dems getting in to bed with Welsh Nationalists as not being too impressive either to a Tory Remainer like me.
Nails it here for my position - "Likewise, centrist Remain Tories, deeply sceptical about Johnson but seeing and fearing the rising Labour share, feel compelled to consider returning to the Blue colours"
Was Sam Gyimah a candidate in the Tory leadership election? I confess I didn’t realise that.
Yes - but quit very early when he discovered he wasn’t going to get more than 3 votes.
Still it was good preparation for joining an unpopular enterprise.
Now that the dust has settles and PBers have calmed down a touch, does anyone think that Mike`s shenanighans will have any effect on ANY constituency outcome? I`m a tad concerned about the effect on my bets that this curve-ball may have.
I reckon most people read the first line or so, thought it was a dodgy betting scam and binned it.
O/T This spreadsheet gives the constituency projections from the final version of the 2017 YouGov MRP study, which wasn't quite as accurate as the first version which caught the headlines when it was first published. (They updated it several times in the run-up to polling day). The first version gave party totals of Con 310, Lab 257, whereas the final version had Con 303, Lab 269. The result was Con 318, Lab 262. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0
Looks like the first Yougov MRP will be close to the final result then unless a major change in polling over the next 12 days
Well theres already been change, it's a question of if its sustained. I wonder if the tories have anything big left in the tank.
The tories rather than offering a second referendum went for an election to get their brexit done. I am still at a loss as to why it is not reasonable position then for Lib Dem’s to fight on revoke. This election lacks any passion. People voting negatively in large part. The result will be a government without a clear mandate the population supports.
Hamiltonace, what are your current opinions re how Tories are doing in Scotland. I think they will lose seats but interested to get a more expert opinion.
From Fraser Nelson no less (not a phrase you see very often): "There’s no sign of bold Boris. He looks at times as if he is fighting the last campaign, terrified of messing things up as Theresa May did." "Ducking the Andrew Neil interviews braved by all other leaders risks giving a sense of complacency, as if he thinks victory is in the bag and that he doesn’t need to say anything more to earn votes." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/28/fear-tories-may-yet-blow-election/
Oh, I hadn't realised Johnson had ducked Andrew Neil. I am not a fan of the farcical debates and 'gotcha' journalism, but a candidate for the highest office in the land really should be able to sit down for an hour with an intelligent and well-researched journalist, to justify themselves to the voters. Not a good look from the PM.
Did you see the coverage of his LBC phone in with Ferrari it’s no wonder they won’t let him go on Neil.
That coverage happened because he ducked the Andrew Neil interview.
Johnson hasn't ducked the Neil interview, yet. The signs are that he will though.
The BBC's initial schedule had them happening all last week.
Which village, if I could be intrusive? I’ve barely been around but what I’ve heard is that people think the Labour candidate is ok but despite Labour. The Corbyn factor means that their votes will still be going somewhere else.
The Tories' underbelly is soft. In the right year, there will be rich pickings.
Its also worth mentioning that the LibDem brand - such as it currently is - was greatly watered down by allowing in a selection of ex Conservative and Labour MPs who were there because they felt that their own party had left them. Not because they had become natural LibDems. I'm in a seat where longstanding LibDems are not happy to have a candidate who they see with a track record of voting to implement austerity - and all the rest of the Tory offer apart from Brexit. And even that Brexit view is as a Johnny come lately convert. A party that is home to Chuka Umunna, Angela Smith, Phillip Lee and Antoinette Sandbach risks not representing anything other than the sort of naked opportunism the voters have shown they despise in their political class. And so it has proven.
Couldn`t agree more. LibDems decouple from their ideological roots when they become a receptacle for disaffected conservatives and collectivists. Though I vote LibDem, I`d probably vote Liberal this time if they stood a candidate in my constituency. It`s a shame because so many people are liberals, but vote outside of their ideology due to familial influence, habit or union links. The LibDems must go back to tubthumping their liberalism: individual flourishment and equality of status - the freedom party. Start there.
Such a party really would be attractive to many soft Conservatives.
I've said for some time that Ed Balls would be their best choice. Even I like him now (I used to hate him) and he really would attract direct switchers from Tory to Labour.
Am I being stupid, or does this mean he is accused of trying hard, but losing, a challenge rather than doing so on purpose?
He did lose on purpose when subbing for Cliff in a trial. He then winked to Cliff (when he returned to camp) that unfortunately he'd lost but the clue is the wink because Cliff clearly wants to leave..... Cliff tried hard not to beam too obviously. Sheesh.
The LDs problem is simple, most centre left Remainers have gone back to Labour in seats where they are best placed to beat the Tories under FPTP while most 2017 Tory Remainers have stuck with the blues over fear of Corbyn. Leave voters of course would never vote LD anyway as they oppose the LDs stop Brexit policy.
However while nationally the LDs are polling no higher than 13% ie the Liberal voteshare in 1979 pre SDP Liberal Alliance, in some seats they are likely to do much better in Remain areaa where they are seen as the main challengers to the Tories e.g. Cheltenham, St Albans, Richmond Park, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster and Finchley and Golders Green or Labour e.g. Sheffield Hallam.
Part of the problem too is still the legacy of the Coalition, of which Swinson was part, which means Labour voters will not back the LDs because of the legacy if austerity. I expect Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger though to have perhaps the biggest pro LD swings of the night as both Labour MPs during the Coalition years and this untainted by the Coalition and more likely to squeeze the Labour vote.
Indeed if Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster (and the Labour vote there is much bigger than the Tory lead on current polls) he would be ideally placed to lead the LDs as an ex member of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet, untainted by the Coalition and if Labour lose again under Corbyn and replace him with another hard left leader like Pidcock then the LDs get their chance. Umunna looks like a PM, Pidcock does not and Umunna could present himself as a UK Macron or Obama at the subsequent general election after 15 years of Tory rule.
Swinson might even lose her seat to the SNP on current polling speeding up that process but it will be close, on my view she is better placed to lead the LDs at Holyrood if that proves the case, she is more likely to appeal to Scottish Unionists and Tories against the SNP where there is no risk of stopping Brexit than she is UK centre left voters against Corbyn.
I've never understood your massive boner for Chuka.
Mr. Battery, but against two disliked candidates wasn't necessarily a bad idea.
The problem was that the Don't Knows broke against her.
They broke against her when it seemed like she spent all her time attacking Corbyn. When most of her voters either had come directly from Labour or preferred a Labour Government, that was never going to work.
But in the context of Lib Dems wanting a hung parliament, attracting Tories is worth more than attracting Labour voters, since the Tories are well ahead. Con 300 LD 40 is a more useful result than Con 350 LD 50.
Problem is, you need both in the tactical vote box, too.
LDs did so well in 1997 (from what I recall reading) because of tactical voting
Indeed, 46 MPs elected with 17% of the vote. They won all those seats like Cheltenham, Winchester, Hazel Grove, Southport, Sheffield Hallam, Eastleigh, Portsmouth South. A lot of their target seats haven't really changed that much since 1997.
O/T This spreadsheet gives the constituency projections from the final version of the 2017 YouGov MRP study, which wasn't quite as accurate as the first version which caught the headlines when it was first published. (They updated it several times in the run-up to polling day). The first version gave party totals of Con 310, Lab 257, whereas the final version had Con 303, Lab 269. The result was Con 318, Lab 262. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0
Looks like the first Yougov MRP will be close to the final result then unless a major change in polling over the next 12 days
Well theres already been change, it's a question of if its sustained. I wonder if the tories have anything big left in the tank.
Yougov MRP national voteshare was Tories 43%, Labour 32%, LDs 13%.
Off beat, slightly What's up in Cantebury? Seems like Tories are taking it back? Winchester, despite voting 58% remain, is too Blue, to switch to LD. Just like Blackburn or Preston
There’s a strong LibDem tendency in Hampshire - Winchester and Newbury (albeit just over the border in Berks) are two of their most famous victories.
Yougov MRP has the Tories holding Winchester and Newbury but Labour holding Canterbury
O/T This spreadsheet gives the constituency projections from the final version of the 2017 YouGov MRP study, which wasn't quite as accurate as the first version which caught the headlines when it was first published. (They updated it several times in the run-up to polling day). The first version gave party totals of Con 310, Lab 257, whereas the final version had Con 303, Lab 269. The result was Con 318, Lab 262. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0
Looks like the first Yougov MRP will be close to the final result then unless a major change in polling over the next 12 days
Well theres already been change, it's a question of if its sustained. I wonder if the tories have anything big left in the tank.
The polls narrowed between first and final MRP in 2017, but the first MRP was a good indicator of the final result. Given the amount of local data in the model, I wonder how significant a change to the headline voting numbers in the closing days actually is.
We might overestimate it’s impact on a UNS basis, whilst MRP is more stable.
Was Sam Gyimah a candidate in the Tory leadership election? I confess I didn’t realise that.
Yes - but quit very early when he discovered he wasn’t going to get more than 3 votes.
Still it was good preparation for joining an unpopular enterprise.
Now that the dust has settles and PBers have calmed down a touch, does anyone think that Mike`s shenanighans will have any effect on ANY constituency outcome? I`m a tad concerned about the effect on my bets that this curve-ball may have.
Just shows how principled the Libdems are, they take in all the cowards and no-users who fled Tories and labour and weeks later try to pretend they are Libdems, is it any wonder they are circling the drain/
This particular tactic of them is poorly done and unconvincing, but theres no pretending they are LDs, they are. We may well question how deeply committed to the party they are but that's irrelevant, so long as they wear the colours thats what they are. Part of the problem with our politics is people stick with a party long after it or they have changed into something else entirely, and insist they are still x even when policy wise it really seems like y is a better fit. Thst Carrie's over to politicians who if they do make a change are treated as though they are still in their old party as if being a party member is genetic and you can call yourself y but you'll always be x really.
I think the Brexit Party standing down in Tory seats has been the biggest killer for the Lib Dems. The Tories basically have free access to the 40%+ leave voters in every single SW/SE marginal.
The LDs problem is simple, most centre left Remainers have gone back to Labour in seats where they are best placed to beat the Tories under FPTP while most 2017 Tory Remainers have stuck with the blues over fear of Corbyn. Leave voters of course would never vote LD anyway as they oppose the LDs stop Brexit policy.
However while nationally the LDs are polling no higher than 13% ie the Liberal voteshare in 1979 pre SDP Liberal Alliance, in some seats they are likely to do much better in Remain areaa where they are seen as the main challengers to the Tories e.g. Cheltenham, St Albans, Richmond Park, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster and Finchley and Golders Green or Labour e.g. Sheffield Hallam.
Part of the problem too is still the legacy of the Coalition, of which Swinson was part, which means Labour voters will not back the LDs because of the legacy if austerity. I expect Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger though to have perhaps the biggest pro LD swings of the night as both Labour MPs during the Coalition years and this untainted by the Coalition and more likely to squeeze the Labour vote.
Indeed if Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster (and the Labour vote there is much bigger than the Tory lead on current polls) he would be ideally placed to lead the LDs as an ex member of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet, untainted by the Coalition and if Labour lose again under Corbyn and replace him with another hard left leader like Pidcock then the LDs get their chance. Umunna looks like a PM, Pidcock does not and Umunna could present himself as a UK Macron or Obama at the subsequent general election after 15 years of Tory rule.
Swinson might even lose her seat to the SNP on current polling speeding up that process but it will be close, on my view she is better placed to lead the LDs at Holyrood if that proves the case, she is more likely to appeal to Scottish Unionists and Tories against the SNP where there is no risk of stopping Brexit than she is UK centre left voters against Corbyn.
I've never understood your massive boner for Chuka.
I would not vote for him but he is the only centre left figure as a Tory I fear at present, as a BME, centrist, telegenic, ex Labour figure he could unite the Remain vote in a way Corbyn and Swinson cannot
The LDs problem is simple, most centre left Remainers have gone back to Labour in seats where they are best placed to beat the Tories under FPTP while most 2017 Tory Remainers have stuck with the blues over fear of Corbyn. Leave voters of course would never vote LD anyway as they oppose the LDs stop Brexit policy. However while nationally the LDs are polling no higher than 13% ie the Liberal voteshare in 1979 pre SDP Liberal Alliance, in some seats they are likely to do much better in Remain areaa where they are seen as the main challengers to the Tories e.g. Cheltenham, St Albans, Richmond Park, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster and Finchley and Golders Green or Labour e.g. Sheffield Hallam. Part of the problem too is still the legacy of the Coalition, of which Swinson was part, which means Labour voters will not back the LDs because of the legacy if austerity. I expect Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger though to have perhaps the biggest pro LD swings of the night as both Labour MPs during the Coalition years and this untainted by the Coalition and more likely to squeeze the Labour vote. Indeed if Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster (and the Labour vote there is much bigger than the Tory lead on current polls) he would be ideally placed to lead the LDs as an ex member of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet, untainted by the Coalition and if Labour lose again under Corbyn and replace him with another hard left leader like Pidcock then the LDs get their chance. Umunna looks like a PM, Pidcock does not and Umunna could present himself as a UK Macron or Obama at the subsequent general election after 15 years of Tory rule. Swinson might even lose her seat to the SNP on current polling speeding up that process but it will be close, on my view she is better placed to lead the LDs at Holyrood if that proves the case, she is more likely to appeal to Scottish Unionists and Tories against the SNP where there is no risk of stopping Brexit than she is UK centre left voters against Corbyn.
I've never understood your massive boner for Chuka.
He's one politician I really can't stand, just a completely empty designer suit, deviod of principles about anything and says whatever he thinks you want to hear. I will cheer loudly if he doesn't win election.
Arlene Foster has just said on Sky news that while she agrees with some parts of Corbyn's re-negotiation she could never support him in government and in a hung parliament she would discuss changes to the WDA and negotiate with Boris. She will not support another referendum and it does look as if the DUP are more sympathetic to the conservatives and unlikely to rock the boat, certainly as long as Corbyn is around
On brexit you can sum up labour's problem in so far as Corbyn is going to Leeds to make a big speech this afternoon to leave supporting voters on, yes you guessed it, the NHS.
Sorry Corbyn it is your backing for leave they want to hear and it is totally absent
O/T This spreadsheet gives the constituency projections from the final version of the 2017 YouGov MRP study, which wasn't quite as accurate as the first version which caught the headlines when it was first published. (They updated it several times in the run-up to polling day). The first version gave party totals of Con 310, Lab 257, whereas the final version had Con 303, Lab 269. The result was Con 318, Lab 262. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0
Looks like the first Yougov MRP will be close to the final result then unless a major change in polling over the next 12 days
Well theres already been change, it's a question of if its sustained. I wonder if the tories have anything big left in the tank.
Yougov MRP national voteshare was Tories 43%, Labour 32%, LDs 13%. There has been little change from that
I didnt say big change I said change, little change is still that. That's why its important if it is sustained- labour need more than theyve achieved so far.
The LDs problem is simple, most centre left Remainers have gone back to Labour in seats where they are best placed to beat the Tories under FPTP while most 2017 Tory Remainers have stuck with the blues over fear of Corbyn. Leave voters of course would never vote LD anyway as they oppose the LDs stop Brexit policy. However while nationally the LDs are polling no higher than 13% ie the Liberal voteshare in 1979 pre SDP Liberal Alliance, in some seats they are likely to do much better in Remain areaa where they are seen as the main challengers to the Tories e.g. Cheltenham, St Albans, Richmond Park, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster and Finchley and Golders Green or Labour e.g. Sheffield Hallam. Part of the problem too is still the legacy of the Coalition, of which Swinson was part, which means Labour voters will not back the LDs because of the legacy if austerity. I expect Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger though to have perhaps the biggest pro LD swings of the night as both Labour MPs during the Coalition years and this untainted by the Coalition and more likely to squeeze the Labour vote. Indeed if Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster (and the Labour vote there is much bigger than the Tory lead on current polls) he would be ideally placed to lead the LDs as an ex member of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet, untainted by the Coalition and if Labour lose again under Corbyn and replace him with another hard left leader like Pidcock then the LDs get their chance. Umunna looks like a PM, Pidcock does not and Umunna could present himself as a UK Macron or Obama at the subsequent general election after 15 years of Tory rule. Swinson might even lose her seat to the SNP on current polling speeding up that process but it will be close, on my view she is better placed to lead the LDs at Holyrood if that proves the case, she is more likely to appeal to Scottish Unionists and Tories against the SNP where there is no risk of stopping Brexit than she is UK centre left voters against Corbyn.
I've never understood your massive boner for Chuka.
He's one politician I really can't stand, just a completely empty designer suit, deviod of principles about anything and says whatever he thinks you want to hear. I will cheer loudly if he doesn't win election.
That was my view of him but I think even if one thinks his days in labour were numbered his actions in leaving (not just quitting politics) and defecting to keep fighting show more principles and substance than I used to think. I respect he took action .
From Fraser Nelson no less (not a phrase you see very often): "There’s no sign of bold Boris. He looks at times as if he is fighting the last campaign, terrified of messing things up as Theresa May did." "Ducking the Andrew Neil interviews braved by all other leaders risks giving a sense of complacency, as if he thinks victory is in the bag and that he doesn’t need to say anything more to earn votes." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/28/fear-tories-may-yet-blow-election/
Oh, I hadn't realised Johnson had ducked Andrew Neil. I am not a fan of the farcical debates and 'gotcha' journalism, but a candidate for the highest office in the land really should be able to sit down for an hour with an intelligent and well-researched journalist, to justify themselves to the voters. Not a good look from the PM.
Did you see the coverage of his LBC phone in with Ferrari it’s no wonder they won’t let him go on Neil.
That coverage happened because he ducked the Andrew Neil interview.
Johnson hasn't ducked the Neil interview, yet. The signs are that he will though.
It's gone on long enough for the story to have already done some damage.
If you believe polling, Labour Leavers rank Brexit low on their priority list, hence perhaps it's actually very sensible to try and move the debate away from Brexit
The Tories' underbelly is soft. In the right year, there will be rich pickings.
Its also worth mentioning that the LibDem brand - such as it currently is - was greatly watered down by allowing in a selection of ex Conservative and Labour MPs who were there because they felt that their own party had left them. Not because they had become natural LibDems. I'm in a seat where longstanding LibDems are not happy to have a candidate who they see with a track record of voting to implement austerity - and all the rest of the Tory offer apart from Brexit. And even that Brexit view is as a Johnny come lately convert. A party that is home to Chuka Umunna, Angela Smith, Phillip Lee and Antoinette Sandbach risks not representing anything other than the sort of naked opportunism the voters have shown they despise in their political class. And so it has proven.
Couldn`t agree more. LibDems decouple from their ideological roots when they become a receptacle for disaffected conservatives and collectivists. Though I vote LibDem, I`d probably vote Liberal this time if they stood a candidate in my constituency. It`s a shame because so many people are liberals, but vote outside of their ideology due to familial influence, habit or union links. The LibDems must go back to tubthumping their liberalism: individual flourishment and equality of status - the freedom party. Start there.
Such a party really would be attractive to many soft Conservatives.
***** Betting Post ***** I notice that the spread-betting firm Spreadex currently has a mid-spread price of 70.8 seats (Sell at 66.6 - Buy at 75 seats) as regards their Conservative Majority market. As such this majority is slightly higher even higher than the forecast figure of 68 arrived at in YouGov's MRP forecast issued on Wednesday - despite the general direction of travel, supported by several subsequent polls, suggesting that support for Labour was showing a discernible increase. Furthermore, Spreadex's own market as regards Total Conservative Seats currently has a mid-spread of 347 seats (Sell at 343 - Buy at 351), which therefore suggests a Conservative majority of 44 seats, i.e. fully 26.8 seats fewer than their own Conservative Majority market, referred to above, which seems rather strange ... am I missing something here? As ever, DYOR.
IMPORTANT - Please totally ignore the above post - Spreadex's Conservative Majority Spread is a Binary market and is therefore either 100 points or 0 points, i.e. very high risk and explains the difference between this and their Conservative Seats market which relates instead to actual seats and is NON binary.
Arlene Foster has just said on Sky news that while she agrees with some parts of Corbyn's re-negotiation she could never support him in government and in a hung parliament she would discuss changes to the WDA and negotiate with Boris. She will not support another referendum and it does look as if the DUP are more sympathetic to the conservatives and unlikely to rock the boat, certainly as long as Corbyn is around
On brexit you can sum up labour's problem in so far as Corbyn is going to Leeds to make a big speech this afternoon to leave supporting voters on, yes you guessed it, the NHS.
Sorry Corbyn it is your backing for leave they want to hear and it is totally absent
They should read a LD leaflet, corbyn is backing leave in those.
The LDs problem is simple, most centre left Remainers have gone back to Labour in seats where they are best placed to beat the Tories under FPTP while most 2017 Tory Remainers have stuck with the blues over fear of Corbyn. Leave voters of course would never vote LD anyway as they oppose the LDs stop Brexit policy.
However while nationally the LDs are polling no higher than 13% ie the Liberal voteshare in 1979 pre SDP Liberal Alliance, in some seats they are likely to do much better in Remain areaa where they are seen as the main challengers to the Tories e.g. Cheltenham, St Albans, Richmond Park, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster and Finchley and Golders Green or Labour e.g. Sheffield Hallam.
Part of the problem too is still the legacy of the Coalition, of which Swinson was part, which means Labour voters will not back the LDs because of the legacy if austerity. I expect Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger though to have perhaps the biggest pro LD swings of the night as both Labour MPs during the Coalition years and this untainted by the Coalition and more likely to squeeze the Labour vote.
Indeed if Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster (and the Labour vote there is much bigger than the Tory lead on current polls) he would be ideally placed to lead the LDs as an ex member of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet, untainted by the Coalition and if Labour lose again under Corbyn and replace him with another hard left leader like Pidcock then the LDs get their chance. Umunna looks like a PM, Pidcock does not and Umunna could present himself as a UK Macron or Obama at the subsequent general election after 15 years of Tory rule.
Swinson might even lose her seat to the SNP on current polling speeding up that process but it will be close, on my view she is better placed to lead the LDs at Holyrood if that proves the case, she is more likely to appeal to Scottish Unionists and Tories against the SNP where there is no risk of stopping Brexit than she is UK centre left voters against Corbyn.
I've never understood your massive boner for Chuka.
I would not vote for him but he is the only centre left figure as a Tory I fear at present, as a BME, centrist, telegenic, ex Labour figure he could unite the Remain vote in a way Corbyn and Swinson cannot
The LDs problem is simple, most centre left Remainers have gone back to Labour in seats where they are best placed to beat the Tories under FPTP while most 2017 Tory Remainers have stuck with the blues over fear of Corbyn. Leave voters of course would never vote LD anyway as they oppose the LDs stop Brexit policy. However while nationally the LDs are polling no higher than 13% ie the Liberal voteshare in 1979 pre SDP Liberal Alliance, in some seats they are likely to do much better in Remain areaa where they are seen as the main challengers to the Tories e.g. Cheltenham, St Albans, Richmond Park, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster and Finchley and Golders Green or Labour e.g. Sheffield Hallam. Part of the problem too is still the legacy of the Coalition, of which Swinson was part, which means Labour voters will not back the LDs because of the legacy if austerity. I expect Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger though to have perhaps the biggest pro LD swings of the night as both Labour MPs during the Coalition years and this untainted by the Coalition and more likely to squeeze the Labour vote. Indeed if Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster (and the Labour vote there is much bigger than the Tory lead on current polls) he would be ideally placed to lead the LDs as an ex member of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet, untainted by the Coalition and if Labour lose again under Corbyn and replace him with another hard left leader like Pidcock then the LDs get their chance. Umunna looks like a PM, Pidcock does not and Umunna could present himself as a UK Macron or Obama at the subsequent general election after 15 years of Tory rule. Swinson might even lose her seat to the SNP on current polling speeding up that process but it will be close, on my view she is better placed to lead the LDs at Holyrood if that proves the case, she is more likely to appeal to Scottish Unionists and Tories against the SNP where there is no risk of stopping Brexit than she is UK centre left voters against Corbyn.
I've never understood your massive boner for Chuka.
He's one politician I really can't stand, just a completely empty designer suit, deviod of principles about anything and says whatever he thinks you want to hear. I will cheer loudly if he doesn't win election.
I completely agree and he's been sending out literature saying that only he can beat the Tories which is nonsense, the LDs have never come anywhere near in that area. I expect him to come third, he's an airhead and the sophisticated voters of that constituency are well aware of this.
***** Betting Post ***** I notice that the spread-betting firm Spreadex currently has a mid-spread price of 70.8 seats (Sell at 66.6 - Buy at 75 seats) as regards their Conservative Majority market. As such this majority is slightly higher even higher than the forecast figure of 68 arrived at in YouGov's MRP forecast issued on Wednesday - despite the general direction of travel, supported by several subsequent polls, suggesting that support for Labour was showing a discernible increase. Furthermore, Spreadex's own market as regards Total Conservative Seats currently has a mid-spread of 347 seats (Sell at 343 - Buy at 351), which therefore suggests a Conservative majority of 44 seats, i.e. fully 26.8 seats fewer than their own Conservative Majority market, referred to above, which seems rather strange ... am I missing something here? As ever, DYOR.
IMPORTANT - Please totally ignore the above post - Spreadex's Conservative Majority Spread is a Binary market and is therefore either 100 points or 0 points, i.e. very high risk and explains the difference between this and their Conservative Seats market which relates instead to actual seats and is NON binary.
Ah, that makes more sense. (Not that I'm touching spreads with a bargepole, after Sporting took several hundred quid off me on the last election's Con seats market!)
Did I just see somebody who quoted Der Sturmer to attack the Jews accuse somebody else of being ‘far right?’ ..
I was quoting Israeli Jewish friends with whom I lived. Their point was intellectually astute and one that behoves a considered response. Don't isolate Antisemitism from other forms of insidious racism, which are also on the increase. If you do, you risk playing into the hands of the very people you most oppose and fear. Antisemitism is a scourge but, for all the horrendous history, it's one form of an evil not an isolated or 'special' one.
It's a brilliant point. Sadly not originally mine
No you stupid person, it was originally made by Julius Streicher. And as you are clearly also a fluent liar as well as a thoroughly unpleasant racist, I do not for a second believe your claims about ‘Jewish friends.’ You may be unaware that was part of his original trope as well, and it was equally unconvincing then. I don’t think somebody who describes vile mass murderers’ views as ‘brilliant’ is in a position to accuse anyone else of being far right.
You're being pointlessly abusive this morning, ydoethur. Whoever may have made the point in the past in whatever context, it's a perfectly reasonable view, which I also share, that anti-semitism is a particular case of a general problem that many people readily identify with a tribe and hate people from other tribes. That doesn't mean that anti-semitism becomes a smaller problem, simply that there is a general attitude issue that also needs to be tackled.
Nick
Mysticrose argued that anti-semitism was the Jews fault because they portrayed themselves as special and hence they shouldn’t argue against anti-semitism. She quoted Nazi “thinkers” to support her case
Arlene Foster has just said on Sky news that while she agrees with some parts of Corbyn's re-negotiation she could never support him in government and in a hung parliament she would discuss changes to the WDA and negotiate with Boris. She will not support another referendum and it does look as if the DUP are more sympathetic to the conservatives and unlikely to rock the boat, certainly as long as Corbyn is around
On brexit you can sum up labour's problem in so far as Corbyn is going to Leeds to make a big speech this afternoon to leave supporting voters on, yes you guessed it, the NHS.
Sorry Corbyn it is your backing for leave they want to hear and it is totally absent
Labour bangs on about the NHS for one reason. It works.
The Labour Leave vote is deeply unreliable. The likelihood of it returning home, during the remainder of the campaign or even as voters go wobbly in the polling booth, has to be rated as very high.
Corbyn attracts derision on Brexit so there is no point in his emphasising the subject. He is right to concentrate on the NHS because that's where he is most likely to get a hearing and to resonate with his target audience. It's good politics and, in my opinion, has a high probability of success.
On topic: Where did the LD's go wrong? Megalomania. They are not "Jo Swinson's Lib Dems". That makes it look like the election is about electing her. The focus is on the wrong place. They should be remembering that it is the voter who matters, not Jo Swinson. Perhaps they should have put "Your Lib Dems" at the top? "Vote Jo Swinson" has too many shades of similarity to "Vote Theresa May"
I think that's right, though I got monstered by nico for saying it yesterday. If Jo had positioned herself as the reasonable leader of a reasonable party, I think it would have gone down better than the cult-of-leader stuff. All leaders have a personal following but it's a mistake (which both Tories and Labour have largely avoided) to suppose in your leaflets that most readers will be signed up to it.
That said, every General Election under FPTP is an unfair puzzle for the LibDems. The two possible strategies are complete centrist equidistance and deciding to try to supplant one big party altogether by being the better version of that side. In the end, the latter never quite works by external pressure - one day a big party may collapse by itself, but despite numerous prominent resignations on both sides it's not happening this time.
The former is more promising but has been undermined by the Revoke stance, which has its followers but doesn't feel very centrist at all. Campaigning as "the reasonable option" would probably have been the best, ironically adopting something like Corbyn's "neutral chairing of a referendum with a sensible choice" before he did - they'd have found it easier to sell than he has, because people do assume they're moderate.
How is canvassing going. Any hint of a Labour surge? (I know your patch isnt Labour's strongest area, but still).
Totnes is a weird seat to extrapolate from nationally. Labour were second last time by a good margin ahead of the LibDems. But we now have (had, rather) a LibDem MP. There are many stresses and strains.
The Labour vote here is either in the big houses (those who think they can afford to be Labour) and the social housing (those who think they can't afford not to be). We had a canvass in an old-style council estate the other day. The sort where Tories fear to tread. We found very few Labour. Brexit IS an issue here still. People DO bring it up, unprompted. And frankly, we got a far better response than we had any right to expect. There are still confused Labour-but-tactical voters here, not knowing whether to go LibDem or stay Labour. We have found straight Labour to Tory voters over Brexit - even here in the SW. I haven't found a single Tory to Labour switcher though. I can tell you nothing about national trends with the Labour vote here! In 2017 we were doing brilliantly in Torbay - stuck nearly 10k on the Tory majority. That wasn't quite the national picture... All I can say is the Tory vote is firming up becausue of fear of COrbyn by remain Torieis. And those who voted to Leave have a steely determination their vote won't be robbed off them. The Leavers I have spoke to will vote to Get Brexit Done, come hell or high water. Anyway, many thousands of leaflets left to deliver. Toodle pip!
Arlene Foster has just said on Sky news that while she agrees with some parts of Corbyn's re-negotiation she could never support him in government and in a hung parliament she would discuss changes to the WDA and negotiate with Boris. She will not support another referendum and it does look as if the DUP are more sympathetic to the conservatives and unlikely to rock the boat, certainly as long as Corbyn is around
On brexit you can sum up labour's problem in so far as Corbyn is going to Leeds to make a big speech this afternoon to leave supporting voters on, yes you guessed it, the NHS.
Sorry Corbyn it is your backing for leave they want to hear and it is totally absent
Labour bangs on about the NHS for one reason. It works.
The Labour Leave vote is deeply unreliable. The likelihood of it returning home, during the remainder of the campaign or even as voters go wobbly in the polling booth, has to be rated as very high.
Corbyn attracts derision on Brexit so there is no point in his emphasising the subject. He is right to concentrate on the NHS because that's where he is most likely to get a hearing and to resonate with his target audience. It's good politics and, in my opinion, has a high probability of success.
It seems to be cutting through. Voters that are worried about the NHS already will have a lot of reasons to return home now they have seen yet more "evidence" to confirm their suspicions.
That NHS document might turn out to be one of the greatest plays in the campaign so far.
Was Sam Gyimah a candidate in the Tory leadership election? I confess I didn’t realise that.
Yes - but quit very early when he discovered he wasn’t going to get more than 3 votes.
Still it was good preparation for joining an unpopular enterprise.
Now that the dust has settles and PBers have calmed down a touch, does anyone think that Mike`s shenanighans will have any effect on ANY constituency outcome? I`m a tad concerned about the effect on my bets that this curve-ball may have.
Just shows how principled the Libdems are, they take in all the cowards and no-users who fled Tories and labour and weeks later try to pretend they are Libdems, is it any wonder they are circling the drain/
This particular tactic of them is poorly done and unconvincing, but theres no pretending they are LDs, they are. We may well question how deeply committed to the party they are but that's irrelevant, so long as they wear the colours thats what they are. Part of the problem with our politics is people stick with a party long after it or they have changed into something else entirely, and insist they are still x even when policy wise it really seems like y is a better fit. Thst Carrie's over to politicians who if they do make a change are treated as though they are still in their old party as if being a party member is genetic and you can call yourself y but you'll always be x really.
Still a bad look when they have more Labour and Tory MP's pretending to be Libdem than they have Libdem MP's. Hard to imagine all the dross they have taken on board had damascene conversions.
LDs did so well in 1997 (from what I recall reading) because of tactical voting
And because a lot of those who voted for them preferred a Labour government to a Tory one - see also 2001, 2005 and even 2010.
What is helping Labour this time is a slight variation of that - a lot of people prefer a hung Parliament to a big Tory majority. Tory Project Fear warnings about what Corbyn would do with an overall majority miss the mark because people can see it's not happening. So tactically voting to stop a Tory landslide makes sense even for people who really dislike Corbyn and Swinson.
The LDs problem is simple, most centre left Remainers have gone back to Labour in seats where they are best placed to beat the Tories under FPTP while most 2017 Tory Remainers have stuck with the blues over fear of Corbyn. Leave voters of course would never vote LD anyway as they oppose the LDs stop Brexit policy. However while nationally the LDs are polling no higher than 13% ie the Liberal voteshare in 1979 pre SDP Liberal Alliance, in some seats they are likely to do much better in Remain areaa where they are seen as the main challengers to the Tories e.g. Cheltenham, St Albans, Richmond Park, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster and Finchley and Golders Green or Labour e.g. Sheffield Hallam. Part of the problem too is still the legacy of the Coalition, of which Swinson was part, which means Labour voters will not back the LDs because of the legacy if austerity. I expect Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger though to have perhaps the biggest pro LD swings of the night as both Labour MPs during the Coalition years and this untainted by the Coalition and more likely to squeeze the Labour vote. Indeed if Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster (and the Labour vote there is much bigger than the Tory lead on current polls) he would be ideally placed to lead the LDs as an ex member of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet, untainted by the Coalition and if Labour lose again under Corbyn and replace him with another hard left leader like Pidcock then the LDs get their chance. Umunna looks like a PM, Pidcock does not and Umunna could present himself as a UK Macron or Obama at the subsequent general election after 15 years of Tory rule. Swinson might even lose her seat to the SNP on current polling speeding up that process but it will be close, on my view she is better placed to lead the LDs at Holyrood if that proves the case, she is more likely to appeal to Scottish Unionists and Tories against the SNP where there is no risk of stopping Brexit than she is UK centre left voters against Corbyn.
I've never understood your massive boner for Chuka.
He's one politician I really can't stand, just a completely empty designer suit, deviod of principles about anything and says whatever he thinks you want to hear. I will cheer loudly if he doesn't win election.
That was my view of him but I think even if one thinks his days in labour were numbered his actions in leaving (not just quitting politics) and defecting to keep fighting show more principles and substance than I used to think. I respect he took action .
Could not cut the mustard so defects to a diddy party see if he can do any better there. Deserves to be out on his erchie, as said a vacuous empty unprincipled suit
If you believe polling, Labour Leavers rank Brexit low on their priority list, hence perhaps it's actually very sensible to try and move the debate away from Brexit
Arlene Foster has just said on Sky news that while she agrees with some parts of Corbyn's re-negotiation she could never support him in government and in a hung parliament she would discuss changes to the WDA and negotiate with Boris. She will not support another referendum and it does look as if the DUP are more sympathetic to the conservatives and unlikely to rock the boat, certainly as long as Corbyn is around
On brexit you can sum up labour's problem in so far as Corbyn is going to Leeds to make a big speech this afternoon to leave supporting voters on, yes you guessed it, the NHS.
Sorry Corbyn it is your backing for leave they want to hear and it is totally absent
DUP are of the same ilk as Tories G and would always side with them.
Was Sam Gyimah a candidate in the Tory leadership election? I confess I didn’t realise that.
Yes - but quit very early when he discovered he wasn’t going to get more than 3 votes.
Still it was good preparation for joining an unpopular enterprise.
Now that the dust has settles and PBers have calmed down a touch, does anyone think that Mike`s shenanighans will have any effect on ANY constituency outcome? I`m a tad concerned about the effect on my bets that this curve-ball may have.
Just shows how principled the Libdems are, they take in all the cowards and no-users who fled Tories and labour and weeks later try to pretend they are Libdems, is it any wonder they are circling the drain/
This particular tactic of them is poorly done and unconvincing, but theres no pretending they are LDs, they are. We may well question how deeply committed to the party they are but that's irrelevant, so long as they wear the colours thats what they are. Part of the problem with our politics is people stick with a party long after it or they have changed into something else entirely, and insist they are still x even when policy wise it really seems like y is a better fit. Thst Carrie's over to politicians who if they do make a change are treated as though they are still in their old party as if being a party member is genetic and you can call yourself y but you'll always be x really.
Still a bad look when they have more Labour and Tory MP's pretending to be Libdem than they have Libdem MP's. Hard to imagine all the dross they have taken on board had damascene conversions.
Fair point, especially as some have been very mean about LDs not that long ago.
LDs did so well in 1997 (from what I recall reading) because of tactical voting
And because a lot of those who voted for them preferred a Labour government to a Tory one - see also 2001, 2005 and even 2010.
What is helping Labour this time is a slight variation of that - a lot of people prefer a hung Parliament to a big Tory majority. Tory Project Fear warnings about what Corbyn would do with an overall majority miss the mark because people can see it's not happening. So tactically voting to stop a Tory landslide makes sense even for people who really dislike Corbyn and Swinson.
No it doesn't
The scourge of the hard left needs to be be seen to be defeated and rejected big time
If you believe polling, Labour Leavers rank Brexit low on their priority list, hence perhaps it's actually very sensible to try and move the debate away from Brexit
My experience is - don't believe the polling.....
That's also what I've heard from other sources - but they would not be sources you'd like to be doing well
There is a quote, attributed to Lloyd George, that was up on the wall of a former workplace of mine, that I think sums up the Lib Dem's position. "Don't be afraid to take a big step if one is indicated. You can't cross a chasm in two small jumps." There is only room for the Lib Dems to advance to major party status if both Labour and the Tories retreat from the political centre to their respective extremes. However, that more polarised set-up creates the current situation, where support for one extreme induces support for the other as a counterweight, and it dissuades moderates on either side from supporting the Lib Dems, due to the risk that the Lib Dems might enable the opposite extreme. The only way through, then, is for the leaderships of both extremes to fail sufficiently that the Lib Dems can claim credibly to leap, in one bound, from the third party of English politics, to the first. With Johnson's success in reaching a deal that Leavers could unite around, the leadership of one extreme was able to be seen to succeed, and the Lib Dems are falling short into the depths of a very deep chasm.
Anecdote time: Chatting to a Tory Remainer neighbour yesterday - he is still voting Tory despite thinking Bozo and Philip Davies are a pair of knobs.
Avoiding Jezza and Labour's proposed tax rises swing it for him. Even though his wife is an EU national.
Well he is a Tory so the fact he loves money more than his wife shouldn't be too much of a surprise. 😉
You seem to think that all EU nationals like the EU & have forgotten the referendums in France & Holland rejecting the EU constitution which were just ignored.
I am also married to an EU national who is definitely not an EU fan.
My view is really the Tories should not win a majority in this election.
They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.
It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.
I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was
The conservatives have been in since 2010
Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are
and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"
My view is really the Tories should not win a majority in this election.
They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.
It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.
I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was
The conservatives have been in since 2010
Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are
and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"
Interesting that in Ashfield a plain white "neutral" leaflet has been distributed. There is a simple message on the cover telling voters they may have been deceived and inside is a simple bar chart of the 2017 general election result in 2017. Under this the leaflet clearly states that it does not support any candidate. Suspect this is to counter the tactics of Zadrozny, who is using council results in his literature
My view is really the Tories should not win a majority in this election.
They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.
It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.
I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was
The conservatives have been in since 2010
Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are
and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"
There is a quote, attributed to Lloyd George, that was up on the wall of a former workplace of mine, that I think sums up the Lib Dem's position. "Don't be afraid to take a big step if one is indicated. You can't cross a chasm in two small jumps." There is only room for the Lib Dems to advance to major party status if both Labour and the Tories retreat from the political centre to their respective extremes. However, that more polarised set-up creates the current situation, where support for one extreme induces support for the other as a counterweight, and it dissuades moderates on either side from supporting the Lib Dems, due to the risk that the Lib Dems might enable the opposite extreme. The only way through, then, is for the leaderships of both extremes to fail sufficiently that the Lib Dems can claim credibly to leap, in one bound, from the third party of English politics, to the first. With Johnson's success in reaching a deal that Leavers could unite around, the leadership of one extreme was able to be seen to succeed, and the Lib Dems are falling short into the depths of a very deep chasm.
Yep. The trick was to force the Cons to run in a GE on a No Deal platform. Given that, plus the "Marxist Loonies" on the other side, I would have backed the LDs for a breakthrough.
My view is really the Tories should not win a majority in this election.
They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.
It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.
I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was
The conservatives have been in since 2010
Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are
and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"
That's how loathed and feared Labour are.
We will see who is more loathed on polling day
Oh thats a keeper
Please do pop in so we can gloat
No way are Labour topping the popular vote
I don't think Labour will win the most seats or the popular vote - but I do think there's a very high chance the Tories don't win a majority because they are loathed.
So I was wrong to imply Labour would be less loathed - but I do think they will be unloathed enough to stop a Tory majority.
Comments
Sure those are risks, hes mercurial, but it's taking away his strengths to operate as they have.
Here we go?
Labour has tried to placate both its Leave and Remain supporters, but I think less successfully than in 2017. The LibDems stance has forced Labour to protect its Remain flank, more so than they would have ideally liked to maintain both tranches of supporters.
It is why the election will be decided in the Labour Leave seats.
The talk of the LDs needing to “replace the tories” or “replace Labour” is FPTP thinking, and at heart this is not what most members (I think, and I speak as one) want. We want a more pluralistic party politics where there is space for a properly left wing party, a national Conservative party, greens, centrist / liberal parties, regionalist and separatist parties and even the far right and left. In a PR environment we wouldn’t need to replace any party. Just properly play our part and safe voters from having to make tactical judgments about who’s least worst or best placed to defeat the real enemy.
So ultimately we are doomed to a Sisyphus-like existence until one of the big parties finally pushes through voting reform. This election has convinced me we’ll never make the breakthrough under FPTP.
Jo could certainly have gone with a different tone, and that could have helped. Maybe in hindsight revoke was a mistake - I think it put off a lot of wavering Tories, but in the end it’s fear of Corbyn that has really done for that demographic (classic FPTP effect). But the manifesto is pretty good, objectively in my view the strongest of the national parties. I’d be willing to bet that with Davey or Moran leading, no revoke policy, and a more helpful TV debate structure we’d still be sniffing around in the mid teens vote share and lucky to get to 30 seats.
You should hit anti-semitism hard when it pops its head out (which it is doing a lot at the moment).
That doesn’t mean that anti-Muslim sentiment (I don’t like “Islamophobia” as it doesn’t distinguish between legitimating anti-Islamist views - ie the ideology behind yesterday‘s attack - and a more generalised racist mindset) should be tolerated. It’s a different form of evil
But to say do nothing about anti-semitism because “what about” is shameful
I think those 'deeply conservative' forces are simply embedded into most Danes because they like the Danish model and want to protect it - racists don't get a free pass here but imagine UK government ministers openly discussing 'non-western' immigration as being a problem, or mandating that people shake hands before they can be a citizen as 'it's how we do it in Denmark and you are not in Syria anymore'.
I think Revoke was a mistake.
Sometimes the public are just venting when they sign a petition and end up being shocked, and holding it against you, if you're a politician vying for power who declares you quite literally agree with them.
On Topic: Another "Return to your constituency's and prepare for irrelevance" election for the Lib-Dems?
In current citcumstances, I think the Lib Dems would do best if the *Tories* were a clear centre-right (i.e. not ideological right) party and so - as you put it - not too extreme and bearable in govt. That would prevent the flight from Labour in fear of a Tory govt.
Although the Lib Dems' best bet might be a Labour government which they're not tied to in any way.
Nails it here for my position - "Likewise, centrist Remain Tories, deeply sceptical about Johnson but seeing and fearing the rising Labour share, feel compelled to consider returning to the Blue colours"
I wonder if the tories have anything big left in the tank.
Which village, if I could be intrusive? I’ve barely been around but what I’ve heard is that people think the Labour candidate is ok but despite Labour. The Corbyn factor means that their votes will still be going somewhere else.
Which means it will never happen, of course.
Problem is, you need both in the tactical vote box, too.
There has been little change from that
Thank you.
Anecdote time: Chatting to a Tory Remainer neighbour yesterday - he is still voting Tory despite thinking Bozo and Philip Davies are a pair of knobs.
Avoiding Jezza and Labour's proposed tax rises swing it for him. Even though his wife is an EU national.
We might overestimate it’s impact on a UNS basis, whilst MRP is more stable.
The next few days are critical.
Part of the problem with our politics is people stick with a party long after it or they have changed into something else entirely, and insist they are still x even when policy wise it really seems like y is a better fit. Thst Carrie's over to politicians who if they do make a change are treated as though they are still in their old party as if being a party member is genetic and you can call yourself y but you'll always be x really.
It's coming in
Arlene Foster has just said on Sky news that while she agrees with some parts of Corbyn's re-negotiation she could never support him in government and in a hung parliament she would discuss changes to the WDA and negotiate with Boris. She will not support another referendum and it does look as if the DUP are more sympathetic to the conservatives and unlikely to rock the boat, certainly as long as Corbyn is around
On brexit you can sum up labour's problem in so far as Corbyn is going to Leeds to make a big speech this afternoon to leave supporting voters on, yes you guessed it, the NHS.
Sorry Corbyn it is your backing for leave they want to hear and it is totally absent
F*cking stupid, if you ask me.
Do the interview.
https://twitter.com/TimesMagazine/status/1200708750551769088
Unfortunately it isn't.
https://twitter.com/mattuthompson/status/1200707848700923904?s=20
I expect him to come third, he's an airhead and the sophisticated voters of that constituency are well aware of this.
Mysticrose argued that anti-semitism was the Jews fault because they portrayed themselves as special and hence they shouldn’t argue against anti-semitism. She quoted Nazi “thinkers” to support her case
They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.
It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.
I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was
The Labour Leave vote is deeply unreliable. The likelihood of it returning home, during the remainder of the campaign or even as voters go wobbly in the polling booth, has to be rated as very high.
Corbyn attracts derision on Brexit so there is no point in his emphasising the subject. He is right to concentrate on the NHS because that's where he is most likely to get a hearing and to resonate with his target audience. It's good politics and, in my opinion, has a high probability of success.
That said, every General Election under FPTP is an unfair puzzle for the LibDems. The two possible strategies are complete centrist equidistance and deciding to try to supplant one big party altogether by being the better version of that side. In the end, the latter never quite works by external pressure - one day a big party may collapse by itself, but despite numerous prominent resignations on both sides it's not happening this time.
The former is more promising but has been undermined by the Revoke stance, which has its followers but doesn't feel very centrist at all. Campaigning as "the reasonable option" would probably have been the best, ironically adopting something like Corbyn's "neutral chairing of a referendum with a sensible choice" before he did - they'd have found it easier to sell than he has, because people do assume they're moderate.
The Labour vote here is either in the big houses (those who think they can afford to be Labour) and the social housing (those who think they can't afford not to be). We had a canvass in an old-style council estate the other day. The sort where Tories fear to tread. We found very few Labour. Brexit IS an issue here still. People DO bring it up, unprompted. And frankly, we got a far better response than we had any right to expect.
There are still confused Labour-but-tactical voters here, not knowing whether to go LibDem or stay Labour. We have found straight Labour to Tory voters over Brexit - even here in the SW.
I haven't found a single Tory to Labour switcher though.
I can tell you nothing about national trends with the Labour vote here! In 2017 we were doing brilliantly in Torbay - stuck nearly 10k on the Tory majority. That wasn't quite the national picture...
All I can say is the Tory vote is firming up becausue of fear of COrbyn by remain Torieis. And those who voted to Leave have a steely determination their vote won't be robbed off them. The Leavers I have spoke to will vote to Get Brexit Done, come hell or high water.
Anyway, many thousands of leaflets left to deliver. Toodle pip!
That NHS document might turn out to be one of the greatest plays in the campaign so far.
If that poll comes in, the average lead will drop further.
Labour really needs to be 7 points or below in at least one poll this weekend.
The scourge of the hard left needs to be be seen to be defeated and rejected big time
The people not exactly embracing Labour's offer are they
"Don't be afraid to take a big step if one is indicated. You can't cross a chasm in two small jumps."
There is only room for the Lib Dems to advance to major party status if both Labour and the Tories retreat from the political centre to their respective extremes. However, that more polarised set-up creates the current situation, where support for one extreme induces support for the other as a counterweight, and it dissuades moderates on either side from supporting the Lib Dems, due to the risk that the Lib Dems might enable the opposite extreme.
The only way through, then, is for the leaderships of both extremes to fail sufficiently that the Lib Dems can claim credibly to leap, in one bound, from the third party of English politics, to the first.
With Johnson's success in reaching a deal that Leavers could unite around, the leadership of one extreme was able to be seen to succeed, and the Lib Dems are falling short into the depths of a very deep chasm.
You seem to think that all EU nationals like the EU & have forgotten the referendums in France & Holland rejecting the EU constitution which were just ignored.
I am also married to an EU national who is definitely not an EU fan.
Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are
and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"
That's how loathed and feared Labour are.
Please do pop in so we can gloat
No way are Labour topping the popular vote
So I was wrong to imply Labour would be less loathed - but I do think they will be unloathed enough to stop a Tory majority.