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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?
Jo Swinson confidently asserted at the start of this month that her ambition from the election was to become prime minister. At the time, it sounded exuberantly audacious; in retrospect, it sounds absurd with obvious echoes of David Steel exhorting his followers to go back to their constituencies and prepare for government. Steel ended up after the 1983 election with 23 seats; Swinson, if the YouGov MRP poll has some predictive value, will finish with fewer still.
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Certainly there will be voters newly repulsed by both Labour and the Tories whomare not going back, even if that number is smaller than it might have been.
They have had two opportunities (2015 and 2019) and flunked them both. The utter stupidity of pacts and advocating tactical voting kills them.
FPTP has always been tough on third parties but LDs are looking to double vote share and gain many near misses to build on for next time.
To state the obvious though, we will not know how successful Swinsons strategy has been for another 2 weeks. It is a bit premature to do a post mortem while the patient is still active.
All the campaigns have been pretty pisspoor. Probably the BXP has been the most ineffective, but considering how long the parties had to prepare they have all been dire.
Revoke was a not unreasonable response to the No Deal threat in September, but should have reverted to a #peoplesvote on the proposed Deal. It would have been interesting to see what NI thought of it.
Swinson made a few errors due to inexperience, but was poorly positioned compared to others to attract switching Labour voters. She is the ghost of coalition.
Replacing the inner city and old coalfield bastions of Labour is a tall order.Lab looks set to retain 80-90% even with a Marxist manifesto and led by Wolfie Smith's less capable brother.
These tactical voting websites are largely a Lib Dem ruse. But they are hugely counterproductive.
Window and garden election posters are much rarer than previous years everywhere. An expression of our less tolerant times, IMO.
The next election could be rather fun.
I think Scotland is reshaping to have a single Unionist party and a single Nationalist one, but south of the border that dynamic does not apply.
As a left of centre party I agree there is a soft right area where gains can be made. Those that you mention are areas where labour has been replaced. Defeat labour first.
To gain a significant number of seats they need to come from ex labour areas.
We are talking about Conservative gains in Midlands. The Libdems should be clutching those from Labour, or at least ensuring that they are replacing labour as second choice.
The pool of seats available for a leftist party is the pool of seats held by left.
However a year later I expect them to be much more unpopular and to lose the following election badly, because the Brexit process will not be easy, popular or kind to the country.
She is indelibly tarnished by her strong association with profoundly discredited former politicians like David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander.
Labour voters regard her with more disdain than they do proper Tories. At least with proper Tories you know the nature of the beast.
There’s an SDP candidate in Tooting - didn’t realise they still existed!
However, you are putting the cart before the horse. The Nordics did not get to where they are today by cooperating with deeply conservative forces within their countries, but quite the opposite: by robustly and consistently opposing them.
The Lib Dems are too much like kittens rolling over on their backs wanting everybody to like them and tickle their tummies. They need to be more like Swedish tigers, or Scottish lions.
Sub-samples?!
In a PB header?!
Ooh... the horror!!
I think any hopes that the MRP is wrong would have to concern factors like those.
When Swinson got high on her own supply. Moving to revoke was stupid. Some of us said so at the time.
Almost everybody insisted that Johnson was not going to get the EU27 to renegotiate, but they did and he came back with a replacement Deal. When he couldn't find a way to force the Deal through Parliament - and however badly or otherwise people think he behaved through the whole prorogation episode - when push came to shove he threw the "do or die" pledge in the bin and asked for the A50 extension, then took his platform to the country. An awful lot of voters will now have confidence in his ability to sort out the future relationship next year, and even amongst those who don't many will believe that he'll simply renege on his promises again and ask to extend the transition period by another year or two to get the talks finished.
Johnson has armed himself with the No Deal stick in theory, but in practice he keeps it behind his back. His position is all about balance, compromise, triangulation, fudge - doing his best to keep his voter coalition together and, by extension, prolong his grip on power. In this respect he's just like Theresa May - except that she strove to unite the wings of the Tory Party, which was impossible because the hard ideologues on both sides would never give in, whereas Johnson united his party by the simple expedient of getting rid of one of the sets of ideologues, and has concentrated on building support in the country instead. We won't know if this approach has paid dividends until we have the election result, of course, but it is at least possible that this might work.
Swinson's message is, on the other hand, put crudely, bollocks to Brexit (and fuck the 52%.) Revocation might be an exciting position for the sort of very passionate Remainers who keep turning up to Stop Brexit rallies, but for the cooler sort of pro-EU voter they're just left wondering how crushing your enemies, seeing them driven before you and hearing the lamentation of their women is meant to help to stitch the country back together, or even respect democracy. They wonder what's wrong with having that second referendum, which every other left-of-centre party is offering. In particular, those who dislike Corbyn but are more afraid of Brexit are thereby encouraged to swallow their doubts and vote Labour instead.
It’s a subtle point, no doubt she should be pleased, but it it’s important not to look too pleased. She gave the impression that her views on Brexit were primarily around tactical party advantage, not a principled view. They looked a bit too excited by everyone else’s misery.
Her disdain for Labour is obvious, but took that a bit far. When you are trying to attract people who had voted for someone else you should appear sympathetic to where they had come from. Blair was excellent at that. Swinson really got that wrong. Not very welcoming,
You’re problem is that you are too afraid of the “or fall” bit. Fear never made a winner.
A year where unilaterally revoking the will of 17.4m people is their only policy to cut through is not that year.
A year where the leader is "Prime Miniser" Jo Swinson is not that year.
Yes, there are many Tory voters telling the party they are on a Final Written Warning. But they will still vote for it - this time.
Its also worth mentioning that the LibDem brand - such as it currently is - was greatly watered down by allowing in a selection of ex Conservative and Labour MPs who were there because they felt that their own party had left them. Not because they had become natural LibDems. I'm in a seat where longstanding LibDems are not happy to have a candidate who they see with a track record of voting to implement austerity - and all the rest of the Tory offer apart from Brexit. And even that Brexit view is as a Johnny come lately convert.
A party that is home to Chuka Umunna, Angela Smith, Phillip Lee and Antoinette Sandbach risks not representing anything other than the sort of naked opportunism the voters have shown they despise in their political class. And so it has proven.
But I cannot recall their validity receiving much support at the time on your blog.
F1: qualifying at 1pm today.
I can't really disagree with it. As a LibDem I've found myself supporting a lot of Labour policies on an intellectual and pragmatic level and I know I'm not alone. The cry I hear a LOT is 'what do the LD's stand for?' Everyone knows the Brexit policy but, frankly, not everyone is interested in Brexit. In fact most people aren't. I did suggest on here in the run up to the election that this would be the case. The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right. It has ever been thus. Most people have other (far more important) things to worry about.
I've desperately tried to give Jo the benefit. I voted for her. But even I'm finding it quite hard going. I feel quite sorry for her and I still think she may grow in stature and gravitas over time - but she needs ten years. I do wonder if there's an underlying weariness with a female leader. Putting it as 'misogynism' is probably too strong but I wonder if Theresa May has left people wondering if any female leader can quite cut the mustard. I'm not defending that. I think Margaret Thatcher, for all her faults, was the most outstanding political operator of my lifetime: a true giant. And Nicola Sturgeon, again for all her faults, is hardly a pushover.
The other point is one you've mentioned. Much as I and many people dislike Jeremy Corbyn, Labour have run an outstanding campaign. Yes some of their policies are, erm, well 'rather radical.' But bloody hell they've set the agenda and got people talking. If elections are won on seizing the media, then Labour would be miles ahead of the tories who have presented absolutely NOTHING to the country.
Too close to call in Warrington South
You really need to reset your political boundaries. Or stop talking bollocks. One or the other.
Plus Jeremy Corbyn, obvs.
A firm commitment to a referendum, wherein they would vigorously campaign for remain, plus Ed Davey as leader as a pseudo Tory would have helped.
It`s a shame because so many people are liberals, but vote outside of their ideology due to familial influence, habit or union links. The LibDems must go back to tubthumping their liberalism: individual flourishment and equality of status - the freedom party. Start there.
Much as the right wing media deride it, Jeremy Corbyn's position finally reached on Brexit is very astute. Stay neutral and offer a free vote - a good deal vs Remain. It's a much better stance than going straight to Revoke.
Plus, times have changed. It's seen as naff. The LibDem diamonds are the last redoubt of naff in the country....
No one else is interested in Brexit. On the doorstep literally no one is talking about it. They ARE talking about the NHS, utility companies, railways, schools and taxation.
(As some here pointed out when that slogan was launched, it does have an unnecessary yet comic ambiguity. Epic fail, slogan department.)
The Conservative approach relied on making the campaign about the EU. But what have they done to achieve this? They've ceded all initiative to Labour.
It's like a man in a bar who sees a pretty lady and thinks "I should like to go on a date with her". And doesn't ask her out. And then goes home alone, wondering where it went wrong.
I think a big problem is that the US meaning of "liberal", which to them often means "left wing", has leached into the UK.
Apologise, you c***. And a lying c*** at that. "No one else is interested in Brexit. On the doorstep literally no one is talking about it." Wanna see my canvass return of all these no ones?
The LDs will be disappointed with their national polling but they are still well up on last time and will probably improve on their seat tally. Tactical voting and differential turnout could yet see them finish with a healthy twenty plus seats, which wouldn't be so bad, especially if we were in hung parliament territory. A strong finish to the campaign would help but even so they are hanging in ok. There is certainly no sign of meltdown.
Where did it go wrong? Not sure it did. Revoke was an honest policy, even if not hugely popular. Too much honesty perhaps? Not something you could accuse Conservatives and Labour of, but maybe that's just the way it is.
They have certainly been squeezed out of the debate. Their resources are so thin they crave air time, and their exclusion not only from national debates but also local coverage has hurt. There's not much they can do about that.
On billboards and the like, we're not really a showy nation, are we? I wasn't expecting to see many around here and that's been the case. Just three in total in Winchcombe (pop 5,000), all LD. No blue, no red, although I did rather surprisingly see a Labour board in the nearby village of Gretton. I guess I live at the more radical end of the constituency. Sitting MP and reclusive ERG Nutter, Laurence Robertson has little to fear.
Have a good weekend everyone. I'll be popping into Cheltenham later. Will let you know what I see there.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/labour-politicians/all
The LDs are like Everton, blaming a poor choice of manager, sacking them, then repeat ad nauseam. The real issues are not addressed. Off to work now, so bye!
I feel mean to Jo putting this on a forum but I kind-of-wish I had voted for Ed. As I mentioned before, I think Jo will grow into this if she has the opportunity. Ten years from now she could be really good.
You could argue that this is Clegg's fault. Buying into the tories led to the 2015 decimation and, because of that, the small pool from which to select a leader.
By the way, I've also been chatting to under 30's and many of them still say they will never forgive the LibDems over tuition fees. Just stating what I'm being told.
Older voters warp their countries’ policies because of their political power. One British politician has a plan to end that dominance.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/britain-election-boomers/602680/
Second, because Swinson never set out why Brexit was inherently wrong even if we did not crash out, Boris was able to shoot her fox by achieving a deal of any sort.
So voters are left with the message that the LibDems are vaguely in favour of staying in the EU, even if they are not sure why, but it is not very important anyway. Hardly the St Crispin's Day speech.
(Btw, if you want to see lots of Yellow Peril posters and boards, drive through Oxford West and Abingdon constituency. I think you get fined for not showing one.)
Now that’s what I call a truly epic self-awareness fail...
The general idea, I infer, is that there are probably insufficient numbers of Labour tactical voters (i.e. those more committed to Remain than Labour) and hardline Tory Remainers (i.e. those more afraid of Brexit than of Corbyn) to get the Lib Dems over the line in Winchester, whereas there are in St Albans.
Guildford has a larger Tory majority than Winchester and a smaller Remain advantage. The idea of it falling surely rests on Anne Milton having a large personal vote that will be drawn mostly from Tory defectors? Someone with local knowledge would be best placed to comment on whether or not this is plausible.
It looks like you have a good point regarding Cheadle though. I can only assume that the demographics are significantly different to those of the Southern seats that are forecast to drop into the Lib Dem column, and that this is influencing the model.
There was a lot of good stuff in the LD manifesto, especially their commitment to balancing budgets, but everything else has been drowned out by the Brexit policy.
There are plenty of people - and I include myself here - who would rather vote to a libertarian party than an authoritarian one, given that both advocate sound money, but can't vote for people who disagree with democracy when it gives a result they don't like.
However while nationally the LDs are polling no higher than 13% ie the Liberal voteshare in 1979 pre SDP Liberal Alliance, in some seats they are likely to do much better in Remain areaa where they are seen as the main challengers to the Tories e.g. Cheltenham, St Albans, Richmond Park, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster and Finchley and Golders Green or Labour e.g. Sheffield Hallam.
Part of the problem too is still the legacy of the Coalition, of which Swinson was part, which means Labour voters will not back the LDs because of the legacy if austerity. I expect Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger though to have perhaps the biggest pro LD swings of the night as both Labour MPs during the Coalition years and this untainted by the Coalition and more likely to squeeze the Labour vote.
Indeed if Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster (and the Labour vote there is much bigger than the Tory lead on current polls) he would be ideally placed to lead the LDs as an ex member of Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet, untainted by the Coalition and if Labour lose again under Corbyn and replace him with another hard left leader like Pidcock then the LDs get their chance. Umunna looks like a PM, Pidcock does not and Umunna could present himself as a UK Macron or Obama at the subsequent general election after 15 years of Tory rule.
Swinson might even lose her seat to the SNP on current polling speeding up that process but it will be close, on my view she is better placed to lead the LDs at Holyrood if that proves the case, she is more likely to appeal to Scottish Unionists and Tories against the SNP where there is no risk of stopping Brexit than she is UK centre left voters against Corbyn.
"There’s no sign of bold Boris. He looks at times as if he is fighting the last campaign, terrified of messing things up as Theresa May did."
"Ducking the Andrew Neil interviews braved by all other leaders risks giving a sense of complacency, as if he thinks victory is in the bag and that he doesn’t need to say anything more to earn votes."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/28/fear-tories-may-yet-blow-election/
It's a brilliant point. Sadly not originally mine
Right, I must head out!
We are putting up our garden posters in Epping tomorrow morning
I don’t think somebody who describes vile mass murderers’ views as ‘brilliant’ is in a position to accuse anyone else of being far right.