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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    A really good piece David.

    I can't really disagree with it. As a LibDem I've found myself supporting a lot of Labour policies on an intellectual and pragmatic level and I know I'm not alone. The cry I hear a LOT is 'what do the LD's stand for?' Everyone knows the Brexit policy but, frankly, not everyone is interested in Brexit. In fact most people aren't. I did suggest on here in the run up to the election that this would be the case. The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right. It has ever been thus. Most people have other (far more important) things to worry about.

    I've desperately tried to give Jo the benefit. I voted for her. But even I'm finding it quite hard going. I feel quite sorry for her and I still think she may grow in stature and gravitas over time - but she needs ten years. I do wonder if there's an underlying weariness with a female leader. Putting it as 'misogynism' is probably too strong but I wonder if Theresa May has left people wondering if any female leader can quite cut the mustard. I'm not defending that. I think Margaret Thatcher, for all her faults, was the most outstanding political operator of my lifetime: a true giant. And Nicola Sturgeon, again for all her faults, is hardly a pushover.

    The other point is one you've mentioned. Much as I and many people dislike Jeremy Corbyn, Labour have run an outstanding campaign. Yes some of their policies are, erm, well 'rather radical.' But bloody hell they've set the agenda and got people talking. If elections are won on seizing the media, then Labour would be miles ahead of the tories who have presented absolutely NOTHING to the country.

    "The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right."
    You really need to reset your political boundaries. Or stop talking bollocks. One or the other.
    She’ll only stop talking hillocks whenever her contract expires
    Did I hear correctly that Labour have just made all their call centre staff redundant?
    That’s hardly a great look just before Yule in the middle of an election campaign they’re fighting partly on workers’ rights.
    400 out of 700 - gone.

    So the chances of Labour now having the manpower to investigate anti-semitic cases.....?
  • Miss Vance, those who tackled the terrorist are heroes.
    It is unwise, however, to use individual cases to make blanket statements about large groups.
    Unless those same people believe every Muslim is a terrorist, they're being rather inconsistent. Let's just praise the heroes and castigate the villains who deserve it, rather than try and pretend the most heroic and the most wicked amongst us are representative of everyone who happens to share their demographics.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    Charles said:

    Nick

    Mysticrose argued that anti-semitism was the Jews fault because they portrayed themselves as special and hence they shouldn’t argue against anti-semitism. She quoted Nazi “thinkers” to support her case

    Charles

    She did not.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Interesting that in Ashfield a plain white "neutral" leaflet has been distributed. There is a simple message on the cover telling voters they may have been deceived and inside is a simple bar chart of the 2017 general election result in 2017. Under this the leaflet clearly states that it does not support any candidate. Suspect this is to counter the tactics of Zadrozny, who is using council results in his literature

    Who paid for it? AIUI, anything distributed during an election has to have the name and address of the author written on it by law.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    A really good piece David.

    I can't really disagree with it. As a LibDem I've found myself supporting a lot of Labour policies on an intellectual and pragmatic level and I know I'm not alone. The cry I hear a LOT is 'what do the LD's stand for?' Everyone knows the Brexit policy but, frankly, not everyone is interested in Brexit. In fact most people aren't. I did suggest on here in the run up to the election that this would be the case. The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right. It has ever been thus. Most people have other (far more important) things to worry about.

    I've desperately tried to give Jo the benefit. I voted for her. But even I'm finding it quite hard going. I feel quite sorry for her and I still think she may grow in stature and gravitas over time - but she needs ten years. I do wonder if there's an underlying weariness with a female leader. Putting it as 'misogynism' is probably too strong but I wonder if Theresa May has left people wondering if any female leader can quite cut the mustard. I'm not defending that. I think Margaret Thatcher, for all her faults, was the most outstanding political operator of my lifetime: a true giant. And Nicola Sturgeon, again for all her faults, is hardly a pushover.

    The other point is one you've mentioned. Much as I and many people dislike Jeremy Corbyn, Labour have run an outstanding campaign. Yes some of their policies are, erm, well 'rather radical.' But bloody hell they've set the agenda and got people talking. If elections are won on seizing the media, then Labour would be miles ahead of the tories who have presented absolutely NOTHING to the country.

    "The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right."
    You really need to reset your political boundaries. Or stop talking bollocks. One or the other.
    She’ll only stop talking hillocks whenever her contract expires
    Did I hear correctly that Labour have just made all their call centre staff redundant?
    That’s hardly a great look just before Yule in the middle of an election campaign they’re fighting partly on workers’ rights.
    400 out of 700 - gone.

    So the chances of Labour now having the manpower to investigate anti-semitic cases.....?
    Um the Labour call centre only employed 75 people mainly on fixed term contracts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    Interesting that in Ashfield a plain white "neutral" leaflet has been distributed. There is a simple message on the cover telling voters they may have been deceived and inside is a simple bar chart of the 2017 general election result in 2017. Under this the leaflet clearly states that it does not support any candidate. Suspect this is to counter the tactics of Zadrozny, who is using council results in his literature

    I think it was this story?
    https://order-order.com/2019/11/22/police-called-labour-candidates-abusive-fracas-voter/
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Interesting that in Ashfield a plain white "neutral" leaflet has been distributed. There is a simple message on the cover telling voters they may have been deceived and inside is a simple bar chart of the 2017 general election result in 2017. Under this the leaflet clearly states that it does not support any candidate. Suspect this is to counter the tactics of Zadrozny, who is using council results in his literature

    It must have a printed and published by imprint on it so you should be able to tell
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    A really good piece David.

    I can't really disagree with it. As a LibDem I've found myself supporting a lot of Labour policies on an intellectual and pragmatic level and I know I'm not alone. The cry I hear a LOT is 'what do the LD's stand for?' Everyone knows the Brexit policy but, frankly, not everyone is interested in Brexit. In fact most people aren't. I did suggest on here in the run up to the election that this would be the case. The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right. It has ever been thus. Most people have other (far more important) things to worry about.

    I've desperately tried to give Jo the benefit. I voted for her. But even I'm finding it quite hard going. I feel quite sorry for her and I still think she may grow in stature and gravitas over time - but she needs ten years. I do wonder if there's an underlying weariness with a female leader. Putting it as 'misogynism' is probably too strong but I wonder if Theresa May has left people wondering if any female leader can quite cut the mustard. I'm not defending that. I think Margaret Thatcher, for all her faults, was the most outstanding political operator of my lifetime: a true giant. And Nicola Sturgeon, again for all her faults, is hardly a pushover.

    The other point is one you've mentioned. Much as I and many people dislike Jeremy Corbyn, Labour have run an outstanding campaign. Yes some of their policies are, erm, well 'rather radical.' But bloody hell they've set the agenda and got people talking. If elections are won on seizing the media, then Labour would be miles ahead of the tories who have presented absolutely NOTHING to the country.

    "The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right."
    You really need to reset your political boundaries. Or stop talking bollocks. One or the other.
    She’ll only stop talking hillocks whenever her contract expires
    Did I hear correctly that Labour have just made all their call centre staff redundant?
    That’s hardly a great look just before Yule in the middle of an election campaign they’re fighting partly on workers’ rights.
    400 out of 700 - gone.

    So the chances of Labour now having the manpower to investigate anti-semitic cases.....?
    Um the Labour call centre only employed 75 people mainly on fixed term contracts.
    Labour are letting 400 go from 700 staff - obviously other areas than just the call centre are impacted.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    Chris said:
    The original Twin Peaks is a masterpiece. I watched it for the first time a couple of years ago. The final scene of the series with the mirror and toothpaste stick in your mind for a long time.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2019
    What was ‘our’ terrorists motivation does he think? English nationalism? Get Brexit Done? Flag of St George flown on every corner?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    DeClare said:

    Yeah it is isn't 1t? they've gone from -10% to -9% in six weeks!
    The lead is currently somewhat supressed I think, by that Opinium poll.

    If that poll comes in, the average lead will drop further.

    Labour really needs to be 7 points or below in at least one poll this weekend.
    And Labour would count that as a victory LOL

    The people not exactly embracing Labour's offer are they
    We will see where are in a week
    You keep moving the goal posts - along with your age ;-)
    In fairness, if Labour had made no progress by now I think it would have to be pretty much called for the Tories. As it is they have made progress, so its time to see if they can keep that going, as they do need more progress to stop the Tories.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    kle4 said:

    Interesting that in Ashfield a plain white "neutral" leaflet has been distributed. There is a simple message on the cover telling voters they may have been deceived and inside is a simple bar chart of the 2017 general election result in 2017. Under this the leaflet clearly states that it does not support any candidate. Suspect this is to counter the tactics of Zadrozny, who is using council results in his literature

    I think it was this story?
    https://order-order.com/2019/11/22/police-called-labour-candidates-abusive-fracas-voter/
    Good on him, whoever that was.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    My view is really the Tories should not win a majority in this election.

    They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.

    It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.

    I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was

    The conservatives have been in since 2010

    Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are

    and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"

    That's how loathed and feared Labour are.
    We will see who is more loathed on polling day
    Oh thats a keeper

    Please do pop in so we can gloat

    No way are Labour topping the popular vote
    I don't think Labour will win the most seats or the popular vote - but I do think there's a very high chance the Tories don't win a majority because they are loathed.

    So I was wrong to imply Labour would be less loathed - but I do think they will be unloathed enough to stop a Tory majority.
    So basically - you were talking crap - again
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    My view is really the Tories should not win a majority in this election.

    They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.

    It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.

    I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was

    The conservatives have been in since 2010

    Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are

    and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"

    That's how loathed and feared Labour are.
    We will see who is more loathed on polling day
    Oh thats a keeper

    Please do pop in so we can gloat

    No way are Labour topping the popular vote
    I don't think Labour will win the most seats or the popular vote - but I do think there's a very high chance the Tories don't win a majority because they are loathed.

    So I was wrong to imply Labour would be less loathed - but I do think they will be unloathed enough to stop a Tory majority.
    You can get 3.6 on NOM on Betfair - longer odds than it was a week ago.
  • A majority of say 15 wouldn’t be a bad result for Boris.

    JC’s crew could say they were close and stay in power for on more push in 2024.
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    My view is really the Tories should not win a majority in this election.

    They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.

    It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.

    I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was

    The conservatives have been in since 2010

    Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are

    and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"

    That's how loathed and feared Labour are.
    We will see who is more loathed on polling day
    Oh thats a keeper

    Please do pop in so we can gloat

    No way are Labour topping the popular vote
    I don't think Labour will win the most seats or the popular vote - but I do think there's a very high chance the Tories don't win a majority because they are loathed.

    So I was wrong to imply Labour would be less loathed - but I do think they will be unloathed enough to stop a Tory majority.
    You can get 3.6 on NOM on Betfair - longer odds than it was a week ago.
    I got some on a while back - but I might drop some more on this weekend if the polls narrow further
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    My view is really the Tories should not win a majority in this election.

    They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.

    It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.

    I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was

    The conservatives have been in since 2010

    Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are

    and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"

    That's how loathed and feared Labour are.
    We will see who is more loathed on polling day
    Oh thats a keeper

    Please do pop in so we can gloat

    No way are Labour topping the popular vote
    I don't think Labour will win the most seats or the popular vote - but I do think there's a very high chance the Tories don't win a majority because they are loathed.

    So I was wrong to imply Labour would be less loathed - but I do think they will be unloathed enough to stop a Tory majority.
    So basically - you were talking crap - again
    Why are you so nasty?

    I made a wrong point and I've held my hands up for it, I didn't mean to imply what I did and I'll accept that. But you do come across I might say, quite rude.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    BobBeige said:

    A majority of say 15 wouldn’t be a bad result for Boris.
    JC’s crew could say they were close and stay in power for on more push in 2024.

    Yikes, worst possible result! There's not many positives to Boris winning, but Corbyn (and his clique) going would be it It's a shame he is needed in the short term for remain.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Floater said:



    No it doesn't

    The scourge of the hard left needs to be be seen to be defeated and rejected big time

    Linguistic note - a scourge of X is a creature that does nasty things to X. So defeating the scourge is jolly good news for X. #labourpedantswinninghere
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    edited November 2019
    O/T
    BBC report on Usman Khan from Feb 2012:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16968518
  • I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.
  • The unifying factor in this entire election is Corbyn. Yes it is a Brexit election but the deciding factor for so many isn't Brexit it's Corbyn. Fear of Corbyn seems to be the thing that can persuade people to vote for a party they can't stand, cats and dogs to live together, mass hysteria.
  • I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,080
    Thank you, @david_herdson, that's a good article. As far as my political views are aligned with any party, I think I'm an old-style Liberal. But I'm a Leaver, so the LDs have nothing to offer me.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • Swinson seems a nice person but comes across badly - overenthusiastic, bit patronising. The school teacher thing has come up alot..
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    My view is really the Tories should not win a majority in this election.

    They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.

    It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.

    I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was

    The conservatives have been in since 2010

    Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are

    and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"

    That's how loathed and feared Labour are.
    We will see who is more loathed on polling day
    Oh thats a keeper

    Please do pop in so we can gloat

    No way are Labour topping the popular vote
    I don't think Labour will win the most seats or the popular vote - but I do think there's a very high chance the Tories don't win a majority because they are loathed.

    So I was wrong to imply Labour would be less loathed - but I do think they will be unloathed enough to stop a Tory majority.
    You can get 3.6 on NOM on Betfair - longer odds than it was a week ago.
    I got some on a while back - but I might drop some more on this weekend if the polls narrow further
    If you think the polls will narrow further then you should be betting now.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    A really good piece David.

    I can't really disagree with it. As a LibDem I've found myself supporting a lot of Labour policies on an intellectual and pragmatic level and I know I'm not alone. The cry I hear a LOT is 'what do the LD's stand for?' Everyone knows the Brexit policy but, frankly, not everyone is interested in Brexit. In fact most people aren't. I did suggest on here in the run up to the election that this would be the case. The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right. It has ever been thus. Most people have other (far more important) things to worry about.

    I've desperately tried to give Jo the benefit. I voted for her. But even I'm finding it quite hard going. I feel quite sorry for her and I still think she may grow in stature and gravitas over time - but she needs ten years. I do wonder if there's an underlying weariness with a female leader. Putting it as 'misogynism' is probably too strong but I wonder if Theresa May has left people wondering if any female leader can quite cut the mustard. I'm not defending that. I think Margaret Thatcher, for all her faults, was the most outstanding political operator of my lifetime: a true giant. And Nicola Sturgeon, again for all her faults, is hardly a pushover.

    The other point is one you've mentioned. Much as I and many people dislike Jeremy Corbyn, Labour have run an outstanding campaign. Yes some of their policies are, erm, well 'rather radical.' But bloody hell they've set the agenda and got people talking. If elections are won on seizing the media, then Labour would be miles ahead of the tories who have presented absolutely NOTHING to the country.

    "The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right."
    You really need to reset your political boundaries. Or stop talking bollocks. One or the other.
    She’ll only stop talking hillocks whenever her contract expires
    Did I hear correctly that Labour have just made all their call centre staff redundant?
    That’s hardly a great look just before Yule in the middle of an election campaign they’re fighting partly on workers’ rights.
    400 out of 700 - gone.

    So the chances of Labour now having the manpower to investigate anti-semitic cases.....?
    Um the Labour call centre only employed 75 people mainly on fixed term contracts.
    That will not faze a Tory
  • F1: third practice over. If possible, will wait for the markets to appear but I'm a bit pushed for time, so...
  • The unifying factor in this entire election is Corbyn. Yes it is a Brexit election but the deciding factor for so many isn't Brexit it's Corbyn. Fear of Corbyn seems to be the thing that can persuade people to vote for a party they can't stand, cats and dogs to live together, mass hysteria.

    Agree 100%.

    I am not a brexit fanatic and brexit is secondary for me over beating Corbyn out of sight
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
    I think that is nailed on. The question is, how long do they leave it? An unexpected event like yesterday can disrupt the campaign.
  • https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1200733702474674178

    Seems like Labour have a lot of votes to squeeze
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    My view is really the Tories should not win a majority in this election.

    They have 9 years of (perceived) failure to defend - and by all accounts they aren't attempting to do so.

    It's really Labour's to take - and I think they have a good chance of getting a Hung Parliament.

    I guess we will see soon if 2015 was an outlier in the 2010s, or whether 2017 was

    The conservatives have been in since 2010

    Labour never tire of telling us about how awful they are

    and yet, 9 years into Government in really difficult times and short of a majority which left them in an ever more precarious position - Labour are hopig to "get within 7 points"

    That's how loathed and feared Labour are.
    We will see who is more loathed on polling day
    Oh thats a keeper

    Please do pop in so we can gloat

    No way are Labour topping the popular vote
    I don't think Labour will win the most seats or the popular vote - but I do think there's a very high chance the Tories don't win a majority because they are loathed.

    So I was wrong to imply Labour would be less loathed - but I do think they will be unloathed enough to stop a Tory majority.
    You can get 3.6 on NOM on Betfair - longer odds than it was a week ago.
    I got some on a while back - but I might drop some more on this weekend if the polls narrow further
    If you think the polls will narrow further then you should be betting now.
    I will have a look this afternoon, thanks for bringing it to my attention
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    So the QC who defended the terrorist from yesterday is/was a Labour Party member who specialised in defending terrorists who he believed where https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-wonder-junior-barristers-are-feeling-bolshie-rxv36l3f36t#

    Wonder if any newspapers will run with this angle.
  • Brom said:

    So the QC who defended the terrorist from yesterday is/was a Labour Party member who specialised in defending terrorists who he believed where https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-wonder-junior-barristers-are-feeling-bolshie-rxv36l3f36t#

    Wonder if any newspapers will run with this angle.

    The Judge agreed he shouldn't have been let out but due to changes in the law in 2012 he was automatically released without seeing the "board", is my understanding (not a law expert, just repeating what I've read).

    So with that in mind, I'm not entirely sure the QC has much to apologise for in this case? Apologise for defending a terrorist I suppose - but everyone has the right to a lawyer and is innocent until proven guilty.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    edited November 2019

    I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
    The most astonishing thing about this GE is how the Conservatives, and the LibDems for that matter, are in total denial of the student debt issue.

    Even after the ONS has started dumping £10bn per year of student bad debt on the government borrowing.

    If the Conservatives and LibDems continue to be in denial about student debt then a Corbynite government is guaranteed at some point.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T
    BBC report on Usman Khan from Feb 2012:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16968518

    If he was ordered to serve at least eight years by the judge, seven years ago, then why was he allowed out to commit murder?
  • juniusjunius Posts: 73
    A letter from Mike Smithson (Polling and Elections Expert) addressed to me personally makes this claim in its opening sentence...

    "The election in Penistone an Stocksbridge is between Labour and the Liberal Democrats."

    The results in the 2017 GE were as follows:

    Labour - 22,807
    Tory - 21,485
    UKIP - 3,453
    Lib Dem- 2,042

    I am not a Polling and Elections Expert - but I'm genuinely puzzled by his claim.
    Before I risk money on the outcome in Penistone and Stocksbridge can Mike explain how he reached his conclusion that it is a straight Labour v Lib Dem fight in this constituency ?

    I am not a member or supporter of any particular party.
  • I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
    The most astonishing thing about this GE is how the Conservatives, and the LibDems for that matter, are in total denial of the student debt issue.

    Even after the ONS has started dumping £10bn per year of student bad debt on the government borrowing.

    If the Conservatives and LibDems continue to be in denial about student debt then a Corbynite government is guaranteed at some point.
    Seems like an easy win for either party would have been to scrap the interest rate - but yet both parties have just completely ignored the issue.

    If you want voters to vote against you, this seems like a great way to do it. The next is avoiding the climate issue.

    Just seems like a total own goal as far as I am concerned. Perhaps they think students won't vote for them anyway, which I guess is fair enough but you need to make attempts to bring them on board surely
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    Agree 100%.
    I am not a brexit fanatic and brexit is secondary for me over beating Corbyn out of sight

    Surely a Con loyalist such as yourself would be voting Con regardless of who the Labour leader is. And indeed, as we have seen, regardless of who the Con leader is.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    edited November 2019

    I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
    Given big chunks of the student loan book are owned by the private sector, I’m curious what mechanism you are proposing for it to be written off. Debt can only be forgiven by its holder. Is this another magical “non debt bond” to be issued to first renationalise it before it’s written off? Or outright expropriation from the private sector entities that bought it?
    You lot would be funny if you weren’t so scary.
  • It will be fascinating to see who ends up getting damaged politically by this terrorist attack, or indeed if anyone does. I really hope nobody does - but let's be honest, somebody is going to be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    Most of it will never actually be repaid anyway, especially with the punitive rates of interest it attracts. It is bizarre that this rate is more than three times my mortgage. The real reason, I suspect, is to milk higher earners as much as possible to try and cover the losses on those who go into less well paid professions (say, teaching) and will never get close to paying off the money in a 30 year period (what are we looking at for a four year course in tuition fees and maintenance loans? £60k?)
    The problem is these are the very people most likely to have capital to spare and will therefore clear it or at least reduce it substantially early. We are therefore piling the highest burden of debt on those who are in a sense least able to afford it.
    The Browne report was an utter fiasco that should never have been adopted by any party, and was the inevitable result of appointing a perjurer who only spoke to his cronies among Vice Chancellors. The Liberal Democrats should have stuck to their guns.
    And that’s even before we consider the unmitigated disaster zone that is the SLC. They couldn’t even manage simple maintenance loans from before 1997. Four systems at once...I am amazed they have not completed imploded yet, but I am confident it will happen soon.
    What I am more concerned with is how the current system is replaced with a financial system that’s sustainable, equitable and credible. And I have seen no evidence that any party or for that matter anyone else has come up with one.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited November 2019
    moonshine said:

    I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
    Given big chunks of the student loan book are owned by the private sector, I’m curious what mechanism you are proposing for it to be written off. Debt can only be forgiven by its holder. Is this another magical “non debt bond” to be issued to first renationalise it before it’s written off? Or outright expropriation from the private sector entities that bought it?
    You lot would be funny if you weren’t so scary.
    I didn't say it was necessarily a good idea (although in principle I support it) but I was simply talking from it as a vote winner. That's a policy that will appeal, the Tories seem set on just ignoring it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    moonshine said:

    I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
    Given big chunks of the student loan book are owned by the private sector, I’m curious what mechanism you are proposing for it to be written off. Debt can only be forgiven by its holder. Is this another magical “non debt bond” to be issued to first renationalise it before it’s written off? Or outright expropriation from the private sector entities that bought it?
    You lot would be funny if you weren’t so scary.
    Much of it is due to be written off anyway, in time. The one thing the LibDems did achieve is that only a minority will ever pay the headline amounts
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    kinabalu said:

    Agree 100%.
    I am not a brexit fanatic and brexit is secondary for me over beating Corbyn out of sight

    Surely a Con loyalist such as yourself would be voting Con regardless of who the Labour leader is. And indeed, as we have seen, regardless of who the Con leader is.
    I would note vote Con usually. Indeed I didn’t in 2010 and 2015 but when the alternative is Corbyn it’s a no brainer. There’s probably a lot of people like me when I look at the Con vote share.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    edited November 2019

    Dura_Ace said:

    Tsk. Why would anybody want to be unpleasant toward such a marginalised and inoffensive group as the tories?

    https://twitter.com/Scouse_ma/status/1192431022278938624

    Wherever that is, the local council really skimped on the pavement. Neighbourhood Watch is very efficient though.
    Looks like one of the many fishing villages up the east/NE coast of Scotland, very often no pavements at all!
    On another note, the Tory adoption of TBP turqoisey blue as a campaigning colour is pretty shameless.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    F1: third practice over. If possible, will wait for the markets to appear but I'm a bit pushed for time, so...

    I think you were right about Bottas, his odds on a podium from the back are now into 3 on Betfair. I should have bet yesterday.
  • IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
    Given big chunks of the student loan book are owned by the private sector, I’m curious what mechanism you are proposing for it to be written off. Debt can only be forgiven by its holder. Is this another magical “non debt bond” to be issued to first renationalise it before it’s written off? Or outright expropriation from the private sector entities that bought it?
    You lot would be funny if you weren’t so scary.
    Much of it is due to be written off anyway, in time. The one thing the LibDems did achieve is that only a minority will ever pay the headline amounts
    One of their better policies, albeit it's a shame it was in the context of them promising to scrap them entirely
  • Brom said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree 100%.
    I am not a brexit fanatic and brexit is secondary for me over beating Corbyn out of sight

    Surely a Con loyalist such as yourself would be voting Con regardless of who the Labour leader is. And indeed, as we have seen, regardless of who the Con leader is.
    I would note vote Con usually. Indeed I didn’t in 2010 and 2015 but when the alternative is Corbyn it’s a no brainer. There’s probably a lot of people like me when I look at the Con vote share.
    Yes, I agree that a lot of people with no brains will be voting Conservative... ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Brom said:

    So the QC who defended the terrorist from yesterday is/was a Labour Party member who specialised in defending terrorists who he believed where https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-wonder-junior-barristers-are-feeling-bolshie-rxv36l3f36t#

    Wonder if any newspapers will run with this angle.

    I personally would be very uncomfortable about attacking somebody’s lawyer for any crimes they commit.
    That is said without any particular love for lawyers. But if, God forbid, I am ever tried I would want my lawyer fighting to get me off, not worrying about whether they might be blamed if I subsequently stole a manhole cover.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Brom said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree 100%.
    I am not a brexit fanatic and brexit is secondary for me over beating Corbyn out of sight

    Surely a Con loyalist such as yourself would be voting Con regardless of who the Labour leader is. And indeed, as we have seen, regardless of who the Con leader is.
    I would note vote Con usually. Indeed I didn’t in 2010 and 2015 but when the alternative is Corbyn it’s a no brainer. There’s probably a lot of people like me when I look at the Con vote share.
    I expect the opposite is equally true - to the extent that it may cancel things out.

    The fact that Corbyn cannot actually win a majority may also be a factor - I know in discussions with others that fact was something that people hadn't picked up on and did have an impact.

    Equally the wife got a second Tory leaflet yesterday that talked about the Tories trying to get a slim majority. A slim majority is the last thing Boris wants as the ERG will screw things up and provides even more attack points for Labour.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited November 2019

    What is helping Labour this time is a slight variation of that - a lot of people prefer a hung Parliament to a big Tory majority. Tory Project Fear warnings about what Corbyn would do with an overall majority miss the mark because people can see it's not happening. So tactically voting to stop a Tory landslide makes sense even for people who really dislike Corbyn and Swinson.

    Yes, if you want to reduce this GE to a binary choice, that is it, a Con majority or a hung parliament, the former leading to Brexit and the latter to its probable demise. In this sense the GE is a quasi Ref2. It's Leave v Remain fought under FPTP, and since most seats are Leave seats, and the Leave vote is more consolidated, the result ought to be a clear win for Leave/Con, Boris/Brexit. I am going to be shocked if this is not the outcome.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,080
    houndtang said:

    Swinson seems a nice person but comes across badly - overenthusiastic, bit patronising. The school teacher thing has come up alot..

    IMHO that problem really boils down to she's a young(ish) woman. It's a pity the LDs didn't note the lesson from "Mrs May's Conservatives". Personality branding like that doesn't seem to work in politics. I mean Agatha Christie's Poirot is one thing, but a political party is another.

    I wonder whether this personal branding is an attempt to make use of the realisation that party leader approval ratings are a more important measure of voting than party approval ratings. It is strange that it doesn't seem to work. Perhaps the leader ratings are only important when the two are not so closely coupled.
  • On topic I wonder to what extent Swinson beat Davey to the leadership simply because she's a woman? I'm no LibDem so it's none of my business but she always seemed a lightweight compared with Davey who is much more experienced and has more gravitas.
    There seems to be a groundswell that the next Labour leader has to be a woman because they've not had one and the Tories have had 2. However, some of those women cited as serious candidates have a similar lack of experience e.g. RLB, Phillips and Pidcock and dare I say a lack of gravitas too.
    There's a risk in eliminating potential leadership candidates because they are the wrong gender.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    BobBeige said:
    Was Sam Gyimah a candidate in the Tory leadership election? I confess I didn’t realise that.
    Not for very long 😂

    It looks really bad for him though - if I can’t lead this party then I’m really committed to the other. Calls his integrity into question - he’d have done better to run as an independent (probably lose) and then join the Lib Dems later.

    I knew him well at Uni - he’s definitely a follower not a leader
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Am I being stupid, or does this mean he is accused of trying hard, but losing, a challenge rather than doing so on purpose?


    It does mean what you said - but I doubt that is the author’s intention
  • kinabalu said:

    Agree 100%.
    I am not a brexit fanatic and brexit is secondary for me over beating Corbyn out of sight

    Surely a Con loyalist such as yourself would be voting Con regardless of who the Labour leader is. And indeed, as we have seen, regardless of who the Con leader is.
    I twice voted for Blair so while I vote conservative I am on the liberal wing of the party
  • What exactly is there to prevent Boris promising to introduce automatic life sentences for the planning and commission of these types of attacks? It would be relatively inexpensive, appeal to the public on a common-sense level, and put Labour in a hell of a hole trying to oppose it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    ydoethur said:

    Brom said:

    So the QC who defended the terrorist from yesterday is/was a Labour Party member who specialised in defending terrorists who he believed where https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-wonder-junior-barristers-are-feeling-bolshie-rxv36l3f36t#
    Wonder if any newspapers will run with this angle.

    I personally would be very uncomfortable about attacking somebody’s lawyer for any crimes they commit.
    That is said without any particular love for lawyers. But if, God forbid, I am ever tried I would want my lawyer fighting to get me off, not worrying about whether they might be blamed if I subsequently stole a manhole cover.
    Yes, even terrorists are entitled to a lawyer and a fair trial.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    It's first past the post, stupid. People voting to stop Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson leading the country for the next five years is what will do for the LibDems.

    All the leaflets with OGH name on them saying the Lib Dems can win here is because as election day draws near people remember that they only option is to pick the least worst option that can win the seat so probably Lib Dems voters switch to Labour or the Tories.

    In my case this was a decision I made months ago - the Lib Dems can't win and the Tories (both their local candidate and their leader) aren't fit to govern.
    So you are going to vote for a party under investigation by the ECHR instead?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    There has been a lot of talk about tribalism determining voter preference out of interest how many people who go to university actually return to there former stomping ground when finished. Is it geographic tribalism or do you take that with you wherever you go?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    drmacf said:



    drmacf said:

    Fingers crossed, just put 250£ on Tories crossing 350, based on the Youguv result. Still not sure though, what is the difference between June 2017 and Dec 2019. Corbyn was there in June 2017 too and hated with equal venom. Still 40% voted for labour. What has changed, for that to drop to 32% in 2019? A strong leaver? Bojo compared to a remainer May? Or are people are just fed up?
    Went through some of the posts in May-June 2017 and with a similar voting percentage, Tories were predicted to win 400 seats and nearly a 90% chance of majority. That off course dropped dramatically in the last week.
    Something does not add up

    Indeed, something doesn’t add up. Isn’t 250£ the tell of a post disseminated by a Russian disinformation operation?
    -- The only Russian connection I have, is a love for Vodka--
    Well I don't think I've ever seen a UK citizen write any monetary amount with the currency symbol afterwards. That's a very eastern european thing.
    It’s a financial modelling thing
  • ydoethur said:

    I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    Most of it will never actually be repaid anyway, especially with the punitive rates of interest it attracts. It is bizarre that this rate is more than three times my mortgage. The real reason, I suspect, is to milk higher earners as much as possible to try and cover the losses on those who go into less well paid professions (say, teaching) and will never get close to paying off the money in a 30 year period (what are we looking at for a four year course in tuition fees and maintenance loans? £60k?)
    The problem is these are the very people most likely to have capital to spare and will therefore clear it or at least reduce it substantially early. We are therefore piling the highest burden of debt on those who are in a sense least able to afford it.
    The Browne report was an utter fiasco that should never have been adopted by any party, and was the inevitable result of appointing a perjurer who only spoke to his cronies among Vice Chancellors. The Liberal Democrats should have stuck to their guns.
    And that’s even before we consider the unmitigated disaster zone that is the SLC. They couldn’t even manage simple maintenance loans from before 1997. Four systems at once...I am amazed they have not completed imploded yet, but I am confident it will happen soon.
    What I am more concerned with is how the current system is replaced with a financial system that’s sustainable, equitable and credible. And I have seen no evidence that any party or for that matter anyone else has come up with one.
    Nine years ago there were some PBers who predicted what a disaster tripling student tuition fees would be - well me and Alanbrooke did at least.

    Do any PBers still think the current system is sustainable ?

    As to the LibDems there were some who thought it was going to be a vote winner for them - Mike Smithson for example.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    BluerBlue said:

    What exactly is there to prevent Boris promising to introduce automatic life sentences for the planning and commission of these types of attacks? It would be relatively inexpensive, appeal to the public on a common-sense level, and put Labour in a hell of a hole trying to oppose it.

    A small number called the European Court of Human Rights:
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2012/sep/18/prisoners-indeterminate-sentences-ipps
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236

    I twice voted for Blair so while I vote conservative I am on the liberal wing of the party

    Did you really? Well that, I will confess, is a surprise to me. Fair dues.
  • On the face of it Labour promising to write off all student debt seems a no brainer (irrespective of whether it's possible).
    However, I'm far from convinced such a policy would play well in a lot of the Labour Leave seats. In many of those seats not too many voters would benefit, and those that don't might take a dim view of yet another demographic getting the benefit of Labour largesse.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    A really good piece David.

    I can't really disagree with it. As a LibDem I've found myself supporting a lot of Labour policies on an intellectual and pragmatic level and I know I'm not alone. The cry I hear a LOT is 'what do the LD's stand for?' Everyone knows the Brexit policy but, frankly, not everyone is interested in Brexit. In fact most people aren't. I did suggest on here in the run up to the election that this would be the case. The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right. It has ever been thus. Most people have other (far more important) things to worry about.

    I've desperately tried to give Jo the benefit. I voted for her. But even I'm finding it quite hard going. I feel quite sorry for her and I still think she may grow in stature and gravitas over time - but she needs ten years. I do wonder if there's an underlying weariness with a female leader. Putting it as 'misogynism' is probably too strong but I wonder if Theresa May has left people wondering if any female leader can quite cut the mustard. I'm not defending that. I think Margaret Thatcher, for all her faults, was the most outstanding political operator of my lifetime: a true giant. And Nicola Sturgeon, again for all her faults, is hardly a pushover.

    The other point is one you've mentioned. Much as I and many people dislike Jeremy Corbyn, Labour have run an outstanding campaign. Yes some of their policies are, erm, well 'rather radical.' But bloody hell they've set the agenda and got people talking. If elections are won on seizing the media, then Labour would be miles ahead of the tories who have presented absolutely NOTHING to the country.

    "The only people really fired up by Brexit are the Far Right."
    You really need to reset your political boundaries. Or stop talking bollocks. One or the other.
    She’ll only stop talking hillocks whenever her contract expires
    Did I hear correctly that Labour have just made all their call centre staff redundant?
    That’s hardly a great look just before Yule in the middle of an election campaign they’re fighting partly on workers’ rights.
    Just Newcastle

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/29/labour-to-cut-jobs-at-newcastle-office-amid-talk-of-tight-finances

    I guess they think they can afford to lose 75+family votes there
  • ydoethur said:

    BluerBlue said:

    What exactly is there to prevent Boris promising to introduce automatic life sentences for the planning and commission of these types of attacks? It would be relatively inexpensive, appeal to the public on a common-sense level, and put Labour in a hell of a hole trying to oppose it.

    A small number called the European Court of Human Rights:
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2012/sep/18/prisoners-indeterminate-sentences-ipps
    When do they plan to take into account the public's human right to go about their lives without the threat of murder?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    Most of it will never actually be repaid anyway, especially with the punitive rates of interest it attracts. It is bizarre that this rate is more than three times my mortgage. The real reason, I suspect, is to milk higher earners as much as possible to try and cover the losses on those who go into less well paid professions (say, teaching) and will never get close to paying off the money in a 30 year period (what are we looking at for a four year course in tuition fees and maintenance loans? £60k?)
    The problem is these are the very people most likely to have capital to spare and will therefore clear it or at least reduce it substantially early. We are therefore piling the highest burden of debt on those who are in a sense least able to afford it.
    The Browne report was an utter fiasco that should never have been adopted by any party, and was the inevitable result of appointing a perjurer who only spoke to his cronies among Vice Chancellors. The Liberal Democrats should have stuck to their guns.
    And that’s even before we consider the unmitigated disaster zone that is the SLC. They couldn’t even manage simple maintenance loans from before 1997. Four systems at once...I am amazed they have not completed imploded yet, but I am confident it will happen soon.
    What I am more concerned with is how the current system is replaced with a financial system that’s sustainable, equitable and credible. And I have seen no evidence that any party or for that matter anyone else has come up with one.
    Nine years ago there were some PBers who predicted what a disaster tripling student tuition fees would be - well me and Alanbrooke did at least.
    Do any PBers still think the current system is sustainable ?
    As to the LibDems there were some who thought it was going to be a vote winner for them - Mike Smithson for example.
    You weren’t alone. I could foresee a catastrophe as well. Indeed I blogged extensively on the subject in the days when I ran a blog about my historical research.
    It is looming, but nobody is thinking about how to replace it, except Corbyn and Labour whose solutions are as clueless as the rest of their work.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    The more you look at the MRP YouGov numbers, the more you realise how much of a disaster they are for Labour. Few crumbs of comfort
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    humbugger said:

    On the face of it Labour promising to write off all student debt seems a no brainer (irrespective of whether it's possible).
    However, I'm far from convinced such a policy would play well in a lot of the Labour Leave seats. In many of those seats not too many voters would benefit, and those that don't might take a dim view of yet another demographic getting the benefit of Labour largesse.

    Good point. Perhaps this is why they have refrained from it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    BluerBlue said:

    ydoethur said:

    BluerBlue said:

    What exactly is there to prevent Boris promising to introduce automatic life sentences for the planning and commission of these types of attacks? It would be relatively inexpensive, appeal to the public on a common-sense level, and put Labour in a hell of a hole trying to oppose it.

    A small number called the European Court of Human Rights:
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2012/sep/18/prisoners-indeterminate-sentences-ipps
    When do they plan to take into account the public's human right to go about their lives without the threat of murder?
    The problem is, the only way of achieving that would be to lock everyone up in separate cells. Most murderers are after all not terrorists. I think these people were only the second and third victims of terrorism in the UK this year (the first being Lyra McKee). How many people have been murdered by their spouses in that time?
    It is about balancing risk against the things that set us apart from terrorists. This is one where sadly the balance did not go correctly.
  • IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    I've had the realisation that student debt is going to be written off.

    I don't know when or how much or who by.

    But if there is about 400k more voters with £30k student debt every year there will soon be a critical mass for action to be taken.

    I'm still of the view Labour is going to announce this policy
    Given big chunks of the student loan book are owned by the private sector, I’m curious what mechanism you are proposing for it to be written off. Debt can only be forgiven by its holder. Is this another magical “non debt bond” to be issued to first renationalise it before it’s written off? Or outright expropriation from the private sector entities that bought it?
    You lot would be funny if you weren’t so scary.
    Much of it is due to be written off anyway, in time. The one thing the LibDems did achieve is that only a minority will ever pay the headline amounts
    It should be remembered that after GE2015 Osborne announced a freeze of the earnings level repayments would start.

    They were going to force a much higher level of repayment than what was expected.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    nunu2 said:

    The more you look at the MRP YouGov numbers, the more you realise how much of a disaster they are for Labour. Few crumbs of comfort

    The more you look the more you realise how much will change with a couple of points of swing towards Labour.
  • https://twitter.com/olidugmore/status/1200729263965704192?s=21

    Legitimately one of the funniest things I’ve seen in recent weeks
  • Floater said:



    No it doesn't

    The scourge of the hard left needs to be be seen to be defeated and rejected big time

    Linguistic note - a scourge of X is a creature that does nasty things to X. So defeating the scourge is jolly good news for X. #labourpedantswinninghere
    Further linguistic note: the above is correct when "of" represents an objective genitive and means "the scourger of X". However, "of" may also represent a genitive of specification in this idiom, in which case (pun intended) it means "a scourge consisting of X", and so that usage is also perfectly viable.

    #toryclassicistsftw
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    edited November 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    What exactly is there to prevent Boris promising to introduce automatic life sentences for the planning and commission of these types of attacks? It would be relatively inexpensive, appeal to the public on a common-sense level, and put Labour in a hell of a hole trying to oppose it.

    This attacker, the 2017 London Bridge attackers, the Westminster Bridge attacker, the Manchester bomber, the 2005 7/7 bombers, the World Trade Centre hijackers have all got one thing in common, they're all dead.
    These 'people' want to be martyrs and they don't care if they die, they're not going to be deterred by life sentences.
    The two scumbags who murdered Lee Rigby, waited at the scene to be arrested and they did duly get whole life tariffs.
    It might go down well with the public but it won't make any difference.
  • kinabalu said:

    I twice voted for Blair so while I vote conservative I am on the liberal wing of the party

    Did you really? Well that, I will confess, is a surprise to me. Fair dues.
    Yes really.

    I am not a right wing tory as the left seem to imply is mandatory for voting conservative. Indeed for all Boris's faults, and he has a great many, he is a liberal leaning conservative
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    eek said:

    Brom said:

    kinabalu said:

    Agree 100%.
    I am not a brexit fanatic and brexit is secondary for me over beating Corbyn out of sight

    Surely a Con loyalist such as yourself would be voting Con regardless of who the Labour leader is. And indeed, as we have seen, regardless of who the Con leader is.
    I would note vote Con usually. Indeed I didn’t in 2010 and 2015 but when the alternative is Corbyn it’s a no brainer. There’s probably a lot of people like me when I look at the Con vote share.
    I expect the opposite is equally true - to the extent that it may cancel things out.

    The fact that Corbyn cannot actually win a majority may also be a factor - I know in discussions with others that fact was something that people hadn't picked up on and did have an impact.

    Equally the wife got a second Tory leaflet yesterday that talked about the Tories trying to get a slim majority. A slim majority is the last thing Boris wants as the ERG will screw things up and provides even more attack points for Labour.

    A slim majority for Boris is preferable to no majority. If he hits the same numbers as May his tenure as PM could be a short one. The gap closing is a good narrative for the Tories in terms of getting voters onside although the reality of the gap closing won’t be good for CCHQ nerves.

    I did get our first piece of literature yesterday (from the Tories), nice that we weren’t forgotten!
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T
    This spreadsheet gives the constituency projections from the final version of the 2017 YouGov MRP study, which wasn't quite as accurate as the first version which caught the headlines when it was first published. (They updated it several times in the run-up to polling day). The first version gave party totals of Con 310, Lab 257, whereas the final version had Con 303, Lab 269. The result was Con 318, Lab 262.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b6kLdtrOA4WB1P8y9gqF3TLeasPuQYgIyFgsowUk1PI/edit#gid=0

    So they more or less hot it right apart from an underestimate of Scottish Tory seats.

    Really doesn't bode well for Labour on election day.
  • W
    Brom said:

    So the QC who defended the terrorist from yesterday is/was a Labour Party member who specialised in defending terrorists who he believed where https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-wonder-junior-barristers-are-feeling-bolshie-rxv36l3f36t#

    Wonder if any newspapers will run with this angle.

    Everyone has a right to a defence - including accused terrorists. There are clearly aspects of his release that need to be looked at. Who defended him is not one of those aspects.
  • nunu2 said:

    The more you look at the MRP YouGov numbers, the more you realise how much of a disaster they are for Labour. Few crumbs of comfort

    And that is why I find it difficult to see a dramatic change in labour's fortunes not matter their recent improvement in the polls
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    W

    Brom said:

    So the QC who defended the terrorist from yesterday is/was a Labour Party member who specialised in defending terrorists who he believed where https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-wonder-junior-barristers-are-feeling-bolshie-rxv36l3f36t#

    Wonder if any newspapers will run with this angle.

    Everyone has a right to a defence - including accused terrorists. There are clearly aspects of his release that need to be looked at. Who defended him is not one of those aspects.
    Someone should be brave enough to point this out to Margaret Aspinall.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    ydoethur said:

    BluerBlue said:

    ydoethur said:

    BluerBlue said:

    What exactly is there to prevent Boris promising to introduce automatic life sentences for the planning and commission of these types of attacks? It would be relatively inexpensive, appeal to the public on a common-sense level, and put Labour in a hell of a hole trying to oppose it.

    A small number called the European Court of Human Rights:
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2012/sep/18/prisoners-indeterminate-sentences-ipps
    When do they plan to take into account the public's human right to go about their lives without the threat of murder?
    The problem is, the only way of achieving that would be to lock everyone up in separate cells. Most murderers are after all not terrorists. I think these people were only the second and third victims of terrorism in the UK this year (the first being Lyra McKee). How many people have been murdered by their spouses in that time?
    It is about balancing risk against the things that set us apart from terrorists. This is one where sadly the balance did not go correctly.
    Separate cells (and isolation) was the basis of the Pentonville (and Port Arthur) system. It didn’t work well but I guess that depends on your view of punishment vs rehabilitation.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    There was a rather trite article on the Guardian a few months ago that implied that all the good ideas were coming from the left and none from the right because the latter was intellectually bankrupt, ignoring the fact that the reason the left have so many ideas (at least in the UK) is because they have almost completely detached themselves from the possible. Just read even a few passages from Bastani's polemic.
    What is eating up thought on the right, or more accurately hobbling it, is an idee fixe on Brexit due to its simple message and its reach. It does not require people to have to think, they just have to believe. So any further thought is sidelined or ignored, in the short term this brings strength but in the medium to long term it can only bring failure.
    If the Conservative party is to survive in the long term it needs to establish a post Thatcherite set of principles, inspired by but not bound by what has gone before. Cameron was a cherry picker, he didn't create anything just nipped and tucked at what had gone before and tried to maneuver the party onto the Labour parties lawn. BoJo is worse, he has not even the basic ideology aside from his own image.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    kinabalu said:

    Agree 100%.
    I am not a brexit fanatic and brexit is secondary for me over beating Corbyn out of sight

    Surely a Con loyalist such as yourself would be voting Con regardless of who the Labour leader is. And indeed, as we have seen, regardless of who the Con leader is.
    I twice voted for Blair so while I vote conservative I am on the liberal wing of the party
    I would have thought most Tories thought of themselves as far more liberal than Blair, wouldnt they?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    https://twitter.com/olidugmore/status/1200729263965704192?s=21

    Legitimately one of the funniest things I’ve seen in recent weeks

    Absolutely - just not a serious politician. Should try to be more ignorant and less thoughtful, and then people might start to take him more seriously.
  • Boris will be on Marr tomorrow.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    BluerBlue said:

    ydoethur said:

    BluerBlue said:

    What exactly is there to prevent Boris promising to introduce automatic life sentences for the planning and commission of these types of attacks? It would be relatively inexpensive, appeal to the public on a common-sense level, and put Labour in a hell of a hole trying to oppose it.

    A small number called the European Court of Human Rights:
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2012/sep/18/prisoners-indeterminate-sentences-ipps
    When do they plan to take into account the public's human right to go about their lives without the threat of murder?
    The problem is, the only way of achieving that would be to lock everyone up in separate cells. Most murderers are after all not terrorists. I think these people were only the second and third victims of terrorism in the UK this year (the first being Lyra McKee). How many people have been murdered by their spouses in that time?
    It is about balancing risk against the things that set us apart from terrorists. This is one where sadly the balance did not go correctly.
    Separate cells (and isolation) was the basis of the Pentonville (and Port Arthur) system. It didn’t work well but I guess that depends on your view of punishment vs rehabilitation.
    I think you misunderstood.
    I was not suggesting solitary confinement a la David Copperfield.
    I was pointing out the only way to guarantee an end to murder was to lock EVERY SINGLE HUMAN BEING up in separate cells.
    Of course, we’d all then starve to death instead,
  • The irony of these idiotic teens chanting ‘fuck the police’ whilst on a climate change protest when only an hour later the very same police force were facing a potential suicide bomber on #LondonBridge, saving many lives in the process of tackling him. #LoveOurPolice https://t.co/8fOlx2ER0l
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.

    Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....

  • BobBeige said:

    Boris will be on Marr tomorrow.

    So Marr won and Andrew Neil is unlikely to see Boris
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    BobBeige said:

    Boris will be on Marr tomorrow.

    Please BBC, given Marr diplomatic toothache and send Neil along instead...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I see the pond life from yesterday was linked to Anjem Choudary.

    A most loathsome individual
  • Brom said:

    By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.

    Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....

    I expect to see all the polls in the 5-7% range.
  • Brom said:

    By the end of the equivalent weekend in 2017 we saw 4 polls where the Tories had a lead that could be considered hung parliament territory (sub 7%), it will be very interesting to see how many if any we have by Sunday evening.

    Will Deltapoll, Survation, Yougov and Opinium still show double figures leads or be closer to 7 points....

    I expect to see all the polls in the 5-7% range.
This discussion has been closed.