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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big MRP message for Tory remainers is that Corbyn can’t be

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  • Brom said:

    There’s an argument that Boris should turn up to the debate tomorrow with no notice, and wrong foot Corbyn, to rubbish him on the NHS when he’s not there. Must be under consideration.

    There's an argument that he should turn up for tonight's debate rather than give the impression that he is a climate change denier.
    No one cares about a Channel 4 climate change debate. But I have also considered the idea he turns up late to replace Rishi Sunak. Maybe Corbyn has had similar thoughts too.
    Wandering OT but if I were the Saj I'd be worried about the sudden ascendancy of Rishi Sunak.
  • Foxy said:

    Net migration last year only just over 200k:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50586338

    Non EU migration continues to climb, while the Europeans depart faster than arriving. I don't blame them, indeed I would be keen to join them if it wasn't for family reasons to stay.
    That's not true. More Europeans arrived than departed.

    Of course massive net emigration for Eastern European countries couldn't continue forever. Poland are struggling with problems due to the amount of emigration they already went through and in 2016 the Polish government called on the Polish diaspora to return home - since then Polish net emigration has halfed. Which means less net emigration to the UK but less net emigration to other countries too.

    We are not seeing EU net emmigration from this country.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    edited November 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Net migration last year only just over 200k:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50586338

    That will soon go negative if Jezza makes it to Number 10. ;)
    deleted
  • Brom said:

    There’s an argument that Boris should turn up to the debate tomorrow with no notice, and wrong foot Corbyn, to rubbish him on the NHS when he’s not there. Must be under consideration.

    There's an argument that he should turn up for tonight's debate rather than give the impression that he is a climate change denier.
    No one cares about a Channel 4 climate change debate. But I have also considered the idea he turns up late to replace Rishi Sunak. Maybe Corbyn has had similar thoughts too.
    Ask some younger people whether they care about Climate Change.
  • Brom said:

    There’s an argument that Boris should turn up to the debate tomorrow with no notice, and wrong foot Corbyn, to rubbish him on the NHS when he’s not there. Must be under consideration.

    There's an argument that he should turn up for tonight's debate rather than give the impression that he is a climate change denier.
    No one cares about a Channel 4 climate change debate. But I have also considered the idea he turns up late to replace Rishi Sunak. Maybe Corbyn has had similar thoughts too.
    Ask some younger people whether they care about Climate Change.
    I care about Climate Change.
    I don't care about Channel 4.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    There’s an argument that Boris should turn up to the debate tomorrow with no notice, and wrong foot Corbyn, to rubbish him on the NHS when he’s not there. Must be under consideration.

    There's an argument that he should turn up for tonight's debate rather than give the impression that he is a climate change denier.
    No one cares about a Channel 4 climate change debate. But I have also considered the idea he turns up late to replace Rishi Sunak. Maybe Corbyn has had similar thoughts too.
    Ask some younger people whether they care about Climate Change.
    Young people care about drugs, the gym, Nandos and Ed Sheeran more than climate change. Only a minority of them care about Greta Thunberg. You can let me know the viewing figures for the debate the next morning to show how many millions of people 'care'.
  • Mmmm Nando's ...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Labour definitely having its Austin Powers moment with these trees. When numbers like that get bandied about it runs the risk of sounding mental even if it's actually doable. It is ripe for mocking. Much better to go with extensive tree planting to increase tree cover by x% rather than spreading tree seed around like lunatics which is how 2 billion sounds

    I've noticed the most popular comments on bbc and itv facebook pages appear to along the lines of 'are they magic money trees?'. There is a credibility problem with Labour's numbers, I would be kind in saying they are overly ambitious on many fronts.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019
    IanB2 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Rutland and Melton, Independent candidate has died.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50572105

    And I did not know that if an Indy dies the election goes ahead, but if a political party candidate dies it does not!
    Sad news, sympathy for his family.
    A party needs an opportunity to select a new candidate. An independent does not.
  • dyingswan said:

    I see that the Labour pivot to Leave has begun. Ed Miliband says that he wants to get Brexit sorted. He claims to have voted for a deal 9 times. He should have put it on a headstone.

    Totally shameless. And I fear enough people will buy this BS.

    I am still waiting for the Tories to begin their campaign....like last time, they appear to be leaving it very late! Did they not learn anything from 2010/2015, you attack from the moment you get in power and never let up. You don't wait until you are attacked, then react, it is too late.

    e.g. they must have known Jezza would try the NHS up for sale stuff, why was Boris out on every hospital visit saying I can guarantee you, the NHS will never be part of a trade deal, etc etc etc.
    Possibly because the NHS will be part of the trade deal and to say it won't is to tar the start of your government?
    It just won’t be though. No British Gvt is going to accept that NICE represents a non-tariff barrier and scrap it, so there can be limited movement on drugs. In terms of health provision, we’re not changing our model and US companies are already free to bid for work if they want to.
    If I thought Johnson had shown a country over party mentality then yes. IMO he needs a quick deal and sacrifices will have to be made. if not over drug pricing something the Donald has been remarkably consistent on then where?
    I don’t see what you think is the upside for him in that though. Even if Boris was being utterly cynical he’d dismiss it as it would make him swiftly hated and he wants to be loved. There’s more chance of him channeling his inner High Grant and giving Trump both barrels in December (trusting that he won’t be re-elected and he’ll win favour with the next one).
    I don't think whatever a PMs feelings they can attack the president in public.

    If i'm to put on my foil hat I do not believe that Boris will be restrained by the current cabinet. The direction of travel was set as soon as the 20+ Conservative moderates were removed and I think that leads to the most right wing government in the last 50 years. Britannia Unchained will be the direction and 'starve the beast' will be the outcome for the NHS.
    Starve the beast? Stuffing it with money has been the practice for the last thirty years.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita

    UK number 34 just above the US.
    Ordered alphabetically . . .
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    This 2 billion trees. Lets presume you can actually plant that many trees at the suggested rate, where are they going to put them all, especially as Labour wants to build a million more houses?

    I would think the answer is a concatenation of the words tree and houses. Labour always prepared to think outside the box.
  • camel said:

    This 2 billion trees. Lets presume you can actually plant that many trees at the suggested rate, where are they going to put them all, especially as Labour wants to build a million more houses?

    I would think the answer is a concatenation of the words tree and houses. Labour always prepared to think outside the box.
    Jezza's house in 5 years time...


  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita

    UK number 34 just above the US.

    Ordered alphabetically . . .

    oops #17 17 places below the US.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2019
    Foxy said:

    Net migration last year only just over 200k:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50586338

    the Europeans depart faster than arriving.
    No, they're still arriving faster than they're leaving, just at a lower level:
    EU net migration to the UK has fallen to its lowest level for 16 years, ONS figures show.The difference between how many people came to the UK for at least 12 months and how many people left dropped to 48,000 - its lowest level since 2003.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    Brom said:

    Alistair said:

    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is this new?

    Another great poll for SCons
    Not with TBP totally squeezed out.
    Didn't spot the BXP at sub 1% there. That give the SCons no where to go but down.
    Doesn't matter as the BXP were never standing in Con defences.
    Are Ipsos-Mori selectively prompting on a constituency basis?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    dr_spyn said:

    The bad boys and girls of 2019 General Election.

    https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1200043794349068288

    5 out of 6 in Scotland.
    SLAB candidate in Edinburgh SW was replaced before nomination deadline for a TERF slur vs Joanna Cherry
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited November 2019
    Byronic said:

    idiot Remainers
    Mad pb Remainers
    British democracy
    Appalling. Shameful
    Decades of this terrible shit.
    Get a fucking grip you selfish morons
    Grow up.

    You're right, dude, you're not SeanT. He was eloquent and funny. This is just petulant whining.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    dr_spyn said:

    Rutland and Melton, Independent candidate has died.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50572105

    Does that mean election delayed, and also alter the majority seat totals?

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,130
    edited November 2019

    Byronic said:

    idiot Remainers
    Mad pb Remainers
    British democracy
    Appalling. Shameful
    Decades of this terrible shit.
    Get a fucking grip you selfish morons
    Grow up.

    You're right, dude, you're not SeanT. He was eloquent and funny. This is just petulant whining.
    If I remember correctly @Byronic voted Remain, but @SeanT voted Leave. In fact they are diametrically opposite in every respect. It's almost uncanny.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,130
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    idiot Remainers
    Mad pb Remainers
    British democracy
    Appalling. Shameful
    Decades of this terrible shit.
    Get a fucking grip you selfish morons
    Grow up.

    You're right, dude, you're not SeanT. He was eloquent and funny. This is just petulant whining.
    If I remember correctly @Byronic voted Remain, but @SeanT voted Leave. In fact they are diametrically opposite in every respect. It's almost uncanny.
    Although they do have that pesky Blinovitch Limitation Effect to cope with.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Brom said:

    Labour definitely having its Austin Powers moment with these trees. When numbers like that get bandied about it runs the risk of sounding mental even if it's actually doable. It is ripe for mocking. Much better to go with extensive tree planting to increase tree cover by x% rather than spreading tree seed around like lunatics which is how 2 billion sounds

    I've noticed the most popular comments on bbc and itv facebook pages appear to along the lines of 'are they magic money trees?'. There is a credibility problem with Labour's numbers, I would be kind in saying they are overly ambitious on many fronts.
    Numbers of trees, or just numbers in general?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    IanB2 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Rutland and Melton, Independent candidate has died.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50572105

    And I did not know that if an Indy dies the election goes ahead, but if a political party candidate dies it does not!
    Sad news, sympathy for his family.
    A party needs an opportunity to select a new candidate. An independent does not.
    Yes, they changed the rules on that a few years ago (2005 or 2010?) after three or four elections were postponed due to the death of a candidate between the close of nominations and the Election Day itself. The reasoning was that an independent candidate is standing for themself, whereas a party candidate is representing others who should be allowed to choose a replacement.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    viewcode said:

    Byronic said:

    idiot Remainers
    Mad pb Remainers
    British democracy
    Appalling. Shameful
    Decades of this terrible shit.
    Get a fucking grip you selfish morons
    Grow up.

    You're right, dude, you're not SeanT. He was eloquent and funny. This is just petulant whining.
    If I remember correctly @Byronic voted Remain, but @SeanT voted Leave. In fact they are diametrically opposite in every respect. It's almost uncanny.
    Uncanny, for sure.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Two weeks before the GE and we have 3 local by-elections today. LD defence in North Norfolk (interesting?); Ind defence in Oxfordshire ( remain alliance sees Greens standing but not the Lib Dems); Con defence in Wiltshire ( against only a Lib Dem).
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Tories are not good at shutting down stories are they?
    Boris should be making a clear statement that the NHS will not be part of a trade deal with the US, no matter what US negotiators may want. And if this means no trade deal with the US, so be it. He can be clear about this unlike Corbyn who lies about what documents say and can’t even be clear about whether he’s for or against Brexit, blah blah.
    How hard is this? Isn’t Cummings supposed to be good at this stuff? It’s not as if this is something which has come out of the blue, after all. The longer they leave it the easier it will be for people to suspect that the Tories might do something which might harm the NHS in their desire to get a trade deal.

    He has said it, repeatedly. As has the health secretary
    Neither he nor Hancock have said that they would forego a trade deal with the US to protect the NHS ie in the terms I have put. That is what needs to be said, loudly and repeatedly, if they want shut down - or try to - the story.
    They are still trying to say that it won’t be on the table and they can get a trade deal with the US when it is clear that the US does want health to be part of the trade discussions. So voters can sense that there is some ambiguity there and because they don’t entirely trust Boris or Hancock, they worry that there might be some truth in what Labour is alleging.
    Yes he did! He literally said he would walk away, what more can he do?
    So we may not have a trade deal with either the US or the EU in just over a year's time.
This discussion has been closed.