What do we think Labour's change of strategy means? That they are confident they have secured lots of other areas that they can just throw all their resources at Brexit voting seats looking to flip them to really make it close with the Tories or just a hail mary?
I would say 'hail mary', but you never know. One things clear they're not too worried about the lib dems anymore, so from that point of view it's a logical thing
People pressured to vote as part of a religious bloc, who would have thought it?
This has being going on within certain ‘communities’ for decades now, it’s really not surprising any more - or is it just Labour supporters being surprised that it’s the Tories doing it in this case? Surprised not to have seen any gender-segregated rally photos yet, they usually surface about now in the campaign too.
What do we think Labour's change of strategy means? That they are confident they have secured lots of other areas that they can just throw all their resources at Brexit voting seats looking to flip them to really make it close with the Tories or just a hail mary?
I would say 'hail mary', but you never know. One things clear they're not too worried about the lib dems anymore, so from that point of view it's a logical thing
That's my thinking. What MRP showed is Lib Dems are absolutely screwed. That is good for Tories in some seats, but I think bad overall as it doesn't split the Remain vote anywhere near enough.
Another terrible day for the Tories....Tories are screwed...This just gives Labour so much cover, as nobody is really going to look at what the difference in "credible" is i.e. Tories will probably have to put up tax a little bit, compared to Labour's total pie in the sky.
“Right lads, now that we’ve finally got much of the Remain vote heading home, what’s our next move”? “Why don’t we start telling people we back Leave”? “Genius”.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
Voting under a PR system would be very different from FPTP, so its impossible to say. But it would certainly fracture politics.
One thing we're seeing across Europe is PR'ish systems not producing anywhere near stable governments at all, see Spain, or Italy, or even Germany possibly in the future too.
What do we think Labour's change of strategy means? That they are confident they have secured lots of other areas that they can just throw all their resources at Brexit voting seats looking to flip them to really make it close with the Tories or just a hail mary?
They are moving from attacking enough Con > Lab marginals to get a majority to defending Lab > Con seats (marginal and not so marginal) to prevent falling to 1983 levels.
II think it is hilarious because I have been there and it does not look like Tory territory to me. Holyhead in particular is run down and basically depends on the Stena ferries. If they go for any reason, the Holyhead is in real trouble. As for "volatile", apart from 9 years (1979-1988) it has been Labour for about 100 years. Is that what you call volatile?
What do you mean you have been there? It sounds like you just took a ferry to Ireland, and didn't go anyone else on the island. Like Beaumaris, one of the prettiest and most prosperous towns in North Wales.
Caergybi is the Labour stronghold on the island -- the rest of Ynys Mon is primarily Tory/Plaid Cymru. Note that the Tory vote was depressed for a while because an Independent Tory (Peter Rogers) stood in the GEs in 2005 and 2010.
I have been there many times (and I have NEVER caught the ferry to Ireland from there).
I don’t disagree, I think that with someone like Corbyn as an opponent Conservatives need to make the case for free markets and sound money even more forcefully than usual. Anyone under 45 or 50 has no memory of what society was like the last time Jeremy Corbyn’s brand of politics was enacted.
It's true that people my age or younger don't really remember the 1970s. But your problem is that for many younger people the Thatcherite economic system we have currently is terrible. No job security, no help with education costs, unaffordable housing, no proper action to deal with the climate emergency. They are absolutely right to vote for someone who will at least try to make it work better for them. Older people can vote to protect their privileges too of course, but the number of people for whom the current set up doesn't work is increasing every day, and eventually the gerontocracy will be outvoted.
How would any of your issues be helped by borrowing another couple of trillion, to add to the trillion and a half that we’ve borrowed already? The young who vote for that are selfishly transferring an even bigger burden to their own children.
You are literally just making up numbers. Do you actually think Labour plans to run a 20% of GDP fiscal deficit every year?
I think that Corbyn has every intention of borrowing or printing a couple of trillion over the course of a Parliament, yes. Maybe he’ll hide some of it by confiscation or undervaluation of shares in companies he doesn’t like, as they get expropriated by the State. Most of this is clearly obvious by reading his manifesto, and it shouldn’t be under-estimated the amount of capital flight that is set to happen on the morning of Friday 13th if it looks like he’ll be the next PM.
Another terrible day for the Tories....Tories are screwed...This just gives Labour so much cover, as nobody is really going to look at what the difference in "credible" is i.e. Tories will probably have to put up tax a little bit, compared to Labour's total pie in the sky.
I think you've got a bit mad?
Just think about it from the perspective of voters who don't really take that much notice. They were told Labour's policies are pie in the sky costing. Now they are being told Tories are too....which of the two sounds better if you are told both aren't properly costed. We have seen it in the focus groups, with people saying arrh f##k it whats the worst that can happen, we won't become communist.
A senior Labour figure has denied talk of his party shifting its focus to Leave-voting areas after a poll put the Tories on course for a comfortable majority https://t.co/TrEoVhpV1o
Now it's a big FU to the north and midlands. Class campaigning
A small story for those of you who think "A View From Cumbria" and I don't know what we are talking about when it comes to planting trees.
In the aftermath of WWII when the Easter Ross Seaboard Peninsula was handed back to the farming families and others who had been cleared out to enable the Americans to practice in secret for DDay, two small forests were planted around North Cadboll. One was at the bottom of my paddock. Around 6 years ago a team of scientists from Robert Gordon University arrived unannounced at my house because they had received funding to study the topography of the peninsula at the time the Vikings arrived to settle and over-run the picts in the 10th and 11th centuries. It transpired there were3 natural peat bogs across Easter Ross and one of them had literally been at the bottom of my paddock.
Due to the presence of the wood comprising crap Norwegian firs, they couldn't really achieve much. A couple of years later my neighbouring farmer who owned most of the wood decided to have it felled because timber prices had finally risen enough to make it a viable exercise. One of these huge tractor extractors came in and started felling the wood. Within 7 days when it had reached the far end of the wood, the peat bog had started to re-establish itself as the timber company discovered when the huge tractor extractor started to sink and ended up sunk up to the top of the top of the continuous track system it moves upon. They had to bring in one of these huge mobile cranes to pull it out before it sank completely. The wood has been replanted in a mix of nature trees but the core of the peat bog remains boggy where it was bone dry when the fir trees were present. I have a large resident population of wildlife including a small colony of roe deer, several pairs of herons and several more of buzzards plus red kites and other raptors. The local RSPB man comes down regularly and updates me on what is nesting etc where.
I was wrong. Business class air travel isn't the most obnoxiously boring subject discussed on pb.com
What do we think Labour's change of strategy means? That they are confident they have secured lots of other areas that they can just throw all their resources at Brexit voting seats looking to flip them to really make it close with the Tories or just a hail mary?
Corbyn is an atheist so he can't even cling to the hail Mary option.
There is no mechanism within our Parliamentary democracy for a third party after an election to demand another party change its leader.
And no self-respecting party is going to agree to another party saying its leader must be XXX.
But a self-respecting party is entitled to say “we won’t support you under your current leadership.” Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers. I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either. The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right. So what to do?
People pressured to vote as part of a religious bloc, who would have thought it?
This has being going on within certain ‘communities’ for decades now, it’s really not surprising any more - or is it just Labour supporters being surprised that it’s the Tories doing it in this case? Surprised not to have seen any gender-segregated rally photos yet, they usually surface about now in the campaign too.
Is there really any difference between this as saying talking about 'the LGTBQ' community? This is the logical result of identity politics.
I don't know how many millions the Tories have just promised Darlington but it's not a small sum.
Dualling the Southern Bypass and adding the missing half of a motorway junction. Building the often promised bypass on the north of the town (this bit is costed however as it's part of the existing regional proposals).
And that's before the public transport building works - mind you they are essential as in September 2025 train buffs worldwide will be looking at the 200th anniversary of trains.
Another terrible day for the Tories....Tories are screwed...This just gives Labour so much cover, as nobody is really going to look at what the difference in "credible" is i.e. Tories will probably have to put up tax a little bit, compared to Labour's total pie in the sky.
I think you've got a bit mad?
Just think about it from the perspective of voters who don't really take that much notice. They were told Labour's policies are pie in the sky costing. Now they are being told Tories are too....which of the two sounds better if you are told both aren't properly costed. We have seen it in the focus groups, with people saying arrh f##k it whats the worst that can happen, we won't become communist.
You've answered your own question.
"voters (who) don't really take that much notice". They don't take notice..of anything other than gut like or dislike. Do they like Corbyn or Johnson. That's the gut.
There is no mechanism within our Parliamentary democracy for a third party after an election to demand another party change its leader.
And no self-respecting party is going to agree to another party saying its leader must be XXX.
But a self-respecting party is entitled to say “we won’t support you under your current leadership.” Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers. I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either. The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right. So what to do?
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
Voting under a PR system would be very different from FPTP, so its impossible to say. But it would certainly fracture politics. One thing we're seeing across Europe is PR'ish systems not producing anywhere near stable governments at all, see Spain, or Italy, or even Germany possibly in the future too.
Yes, for all its faults an FPTP system can mostly be relied on to produce a stable outcome - the last couple of elections notwithstanding. Certainly much more so than with PR systems, where it’s almost impossible for a party to get a majority and manifesto commitments become nothing more than bargaining chips in the coalition stitchup negotiations after the people have votes.
Labour's spending manifesto to increase taxes for 'many millions outside top 5%, IFS says
File under 'no s*** sherlock'. If anyone thinks that widespread tax increase or similar aren't coming under labour, than i have a bridge to sell you...
People pressured to vote as part of a religious bloc, who would have thought it?
This has being going on within certain ‘communities’ for decades now, it’s really not surprising any more - or is it just Labour supporters being surprised that it’s the Tories doing it in this case? Surprised not to have seen any gender-segregated rally photos yet, they usually surface about now in the campaign too.
I know, it’ll be one of the best things to happen when Northern Ireland leaves the UK.
Religious bloc voting should have no place in this country.
Hopefully Boris Johnson putting the border in the Irish Sea will accelerate Irish unification.
What do we think Labour's change of strategy means? That they are confident they have secured lots of other areas that they can just throw all their resources at Brexit voting seats looking to flip them to really make it close with the Tories or just a hail mary?
They are moving from attacking enough Con > Lab marginals to get a majority to defending Lab > Con seats (marginal and not so marginal) to prevent falling to 1983 levels.
They know they are heading for sub 200 probably nearer 180 if they have been wasting time in con/lab marginals rather than defending what they have then they are even more stupid than I thought. It would be funny if they now pivoted to leave 🤣
A senior Labour figure has denied talk of his party shifting its focus to Leave-voting areas after a poll put the Tories on course for a comfortable majority https://t.co/TrEoVhpV1o
Now it's a big FU to the north and midlands. Class campaigning
I heard about the shift in resources to Leave seats on the BBC, so it must be true.
What do we think Labour's change of strategy means? That they are confident they have secured lots of other areas that they can just throw all their resources at Brexit voting seats looking to flip them to really make it close with the Tories or just a hail mary?
Good solid stalwart action by OGH in attempting to drum up tactical voting to assist the LibDems' cause. Sadly for him the damage has already been done by their leader inexplicably embarking on her totally undemocratic policy of simply proposing to revoke Article 50, thereby scrapping Brexit at a stroke, without so much as endorsing a second referendum instead. Small wonder that their support levels have diminished so dramatically during the course of the election campaign. I doubt whether he'll receive much succour either from Peter Kellner, who along with his wife, Baroness Ashton, are lifelong Socialists are are therefore more likely to be interested in saving Labour seats than those targeted by the Yellow team.
There is no mechanism within our Parliamentary democracy for a third party after an election to demand another party change its leader.
And no self-respecting party is going to agree to another party saying its leader must be XXX.
But a self-respecting party is entitled to say “we won’t support you under your current leadership.” Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers. I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either. The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right. So what to do?
All we can do is do what we can. Many of us are guaranteed to lose in this election regardless, it probably doesnt even actually matter which way we vote.
Carrying on with your excellent analysis and scrutiny on here will have far more impact than which way you vote. (Even if in the big quantum of things that isnt much impact either but each of us is only one amongst very very many).
If that's racial abuse I shall eat my hat, as would 99% of the public. Sheer nonsense.
I think it is, frankly - while I'm more relaxed about the Tory "Dharmic community" leaflet, which is unhelpfully sectarian but at least isn't anti-anyone.
There is no mechanism within our Parliamentary democracy for a third party after an election to demand another party change its leader.
And no self-respecting party is going to agree to another party saying its leader must be XXX.
But a self-respecting party is entitled to say “we won’t support you under your current leadership.” Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers. I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either. The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right. So what to do?
I don’t disagree, I think that with someone like Corbyn as an opponent Conservatives need to make the case for free markets and sound money even more forcefully than usual. Anyone under 45 or 50 has no memory of what society was like the last time Jeremy Corbyn’s brand of politics was enacted.
It's true that people my age or younger don't really remember the 1970s. But your problem is that for many younger people the Thatcherite economic system we have currently is terrible. No job security, no help with education costs, unaffordable housing, no proper action to deal with the climate emergency. They are absolutely right to vote for someone who will at least try to make it work better for them. Older people can vote to protect their privileges too of course, but the number of people for whom the current set up doesn't work is increasing every day, and eventually the gerontocracy will be outvoted.
How would any of your issues be helped by borrowing another couple of trillion, to add to the trillion and a half that we’ve borrowed already? The young who vote for that are selfishly transferring an even bigger burden to their own children.
You are literally just making up numbers. Do you actually think Labour plans to run a 20% of GDP fiscal deficit every year?
I think that Corbyn has every intention of borrowing or printing a couple of trillion over the course of a Parliament, yes. Maybe he’ll hide some of it by confiscation or undervaluation of shares in companies he doesn’t like, as they get expropriated by the State. Most of this is clearly obvious by reading his manifesto, and it shouldn’t be under-estimated the amount of capital flight that is set to happen on the morning of Friday 13th if it looks like he’ll be the next PM.
Delusional.
LOL, did you read his manifesto, and did you listen to what his conference were discussing? Businesses making preparations to mitigate the effects of a Corbyn government is very real indeed, and will happen literally overnight.
A senior Labour figure has denied talk of his party shifting its focus to Leave-voting areas after a poll put the Tories on course for a comfortable majority https://t.co/TrEoVhpV1o
Now it's a big FU to the north and midlands. Class campaigning
I heard about the shift in resources to Leave seats on the BBC, so it must be true.
I've received a single piece of Labour literature - the one every party gets to send as part of the 1 mail freepost delivery. My ward flipped from Tory to Labour in the locals - it's been worked hard by the Tories but just the freepost from Labour. If they're launching a late effort I'll let you all know here.
If Swinson loses seats we need a good long series of threads on how shes the worst leader of a political party since that UKIP bloke that got suspended
Corbyn still peddling his secret sell-out of the NHS claims against the Tories this morning. He deserves to be humiliated two weeks today but then he should have been hanged as a traitor 30 years ago.
With Boris looking likely to win a majority, it is time to give his plans serious scrutiny and get some firm commitments on the record.
His promise to 'Get Brexit Done' needs to be interrogated. We need to know precisely how he will will avoid a cold, hard Brexit in 12 months. A promise is required. We cannot afford to give him a blank cheque.
It’s not a promise we need. It’s details. Will we get them? Seems unlikely.
I disagree, it is unrealistic to expect details of a negotiation in advance, especially when its from the junior partner. What we need is credible and trusted leaders backed by experienced and successful negotiators. What we have is a vain liar backed by unicorn chasing buffoons.
We’re entitled to have details of our negotiating position and objectives, much like the US has set out.
DUP would not support Corbyn in hung Parliament - Oh well thats a relief...
They won't back Boris' deal either, but they will vote for Brexit ... remember the "No deal" danger zone I talked about in my piece...
I was being sarcastic...I think we are heading for the disaster zone of no change from two months ago.
It is not an easy place to return to. Different speaker, fewer Tory rebels, fresh mandates for the leaders, no deal deadline upcoming quickly, experienced key MPs with legal backgrounds likely gone from parliament. I predicted no deal was a non runner throughout the last parliament but very confident a decision will be made between deal, no deal and 2nd ref in Dec and Jan, it wont be ongoing extensions without a plan.
Another terrible day for the Tories....Tories are screwed...This just gives Labour so much cover, as nobody is really going to look at what the difference in "credible" is i.e. Tories will probably have to put up tax a little bit, compared to Labour's total pie in the sky.
There is indeed a bit of a difference between a gap of a few billion and one of a few hundred billion (at least). The uncosted WASPI women pledge alone must amount to 10 times the scale of any gap in the Conservative manifesto. Reporting both parties as though they are equally irresponsible strikes me as a contrived attempt at balance that is exactly the opposite. The only silver lining for the Conservatives is that the BBC might after all convince the public that the Conservatives are proposing a fiscal package that goes some way to address the public's yearning for an end to austerity, after Johnson's manifesto did its best to convince the public that the goody bag was all but empty.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
Voting under a PR system would be very different from FPTP, so its impossible to say. But it would certainly fracture politics. One thing we're seeing across Europe is PR'ish systems not producing anywhere near stable governments at all, see Spain, or Italy, or even Germany possibly in the future too.
Yes, for all its faults an FPTP system can mostly be relied on to produce a stable outcome - the last couple of elections notwithstanding. Certainly much more so than with PR systems, where it’s almost impossible for a party to get a majority and manifesto commitments become nothing more than bargaining chips in the coalition stitchup negotiations after the people have votes.
FPTP only produces 'strong and stable' governments if there are only two parties in contention. This was true in the 1950s, less so now. It also has the function of sometimes rewarding quite small percentages with massive majorities, which is not good for democracy.
Labour's spending manifesto to increase taxes for 'many millions outside top 5%, IFS says
File under 'no s*** sherlock'. If anyone thinks that widespread tax increase or similar aren't coming under labour, than i have a bridge to sell you...
I was going to sell you the one you bought two years ago for a second time.
People pressured to vote as part of a religious bloc, who would have thought it?
This has being going on within certain ‘communities’ for decades now, it’s really not surprising any more - or is it just Labour supporters being surprised that it’s the Tories doing it in this case? Surprised not to have seen any gender-segregated rally photos yet, they usually surface about now in the campaign too.
I know, it’ll be one of the best things to happen when Northern Ireland leaves the UK.
Religious bloc voting should have no place in this country.
Hopefully Boris Johnson putting the border in the Irish Sea will accelerate Irish unification.
I agree religious voting should not be encouraged or done as a block. Unfortunately we have too many blocks (some regional some more national): Jewish, Muslim, Catholic, Protestant Any others?
Corbyn still peddling his secret sell-out of the NHS claims against the Tories this morning. He deserves to be humiliated two weeks today but then he should have been hanged as a traitor 30 years ago.
Is there a conspiracy theory he hasn't entertained in the past?
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
There is no mechanism within our Parliamentary democracy for a third party after an election to demand another party change its leader.
And no self-respecting party is going to agree to another party saying its leader must be XXX.
But a self-respecting party is entitled to say “we won’t support you under your current leadership.” Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers. I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either. The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right. So what to do?
That's fine they can refuse to support one, but unless they actively support another then they abstain in which case the numbers without them are what matters. Lib Dems in the last Parliament refused to support Corbyn or Johnson but that just meant Johnson remained in Downing Street running a minority government, it didn't mean either got replaced. If the Lib Dems are in a kingmaker position in a Hung Parliament but refuse to support either leader then that is a choice - the leader of the largest bloc will defacto run a minority administration. Unless the Lib Dems side with either Tories or Labour they are a glorified protest vote/spoilt ballot at this election.
SNP lead over CON on YouGov MRP 13 percentage points, LibDem candidate (9% on MRP) is a serving Edinburgh councillor and by local reports is a paper candidate who won't be campaigning locally.
I don’t disagree, I think that with someone like Corbyn as an opponent Conservatives need to make the case for free markets and sound money even more forcefully than usual. Anyone under 45 or 50 has no memory of what society was like the last time Jeremy Corbyn’s brand of politics was enacted.
It's true that people my age or younger don't really remember the 1970s. But your problem is that for many younger people the Thatcherite economic system we have currently is terrible. No job security, no help with education costs, unaffordable housing, no proper action to deal with the climate emergency. They are absolutely right to vote for someone who will at least try to make it work better for them. Older people can vote to protect their privileges too of course, but the number of people for whom the current set up doesn't work is increasing every day, and eventually the gerontocracy will be outvoted.
How would any of your issues be helped by borrowing another couple of trillion, to add to the trillion and a half that we’ve borrowed already? The young who vote for that are selfishly transferring an even bigger burden to their own children.
You are literally just making up numbers. Do you actually think Labour plans to run a 20% of GDP fiscal deficit every year?
I think that Corbyn has every intention of borrowing or printing a couple of trillion over the course of a Parliament, yes. Maybe he’ll hide some of it by confiscation or undervaluation of shares in companies he doesn’t like, as they get expropriated by the State. Most of this is clearly obvious by reading his manifesto, and it shouldn’t be under-estimated the amount of capital flight that is set to happen on the morning of Friday 13th if it looks like he’ll be the next PM.
Delusional.
LOL, did you read his manifesto, and did you listen to what his conference were discussing? Businesses making preparations to mitigate the effects of a Corbyn government is very real indeed, and will happen literally overnight.
Sure, lots of wealthy people are looking for ways to protect their wealth. But your claim that Labour plans to borrow an additional 20% of GDP per year is complete innumerate nonsense and makes it hard for anyone to take you seriously.
What do we think Labour's change of strategy means? That they are confident they have secured lots of other areas that they can just throw all their resources at Brexit voting seats looking to flip them to really make it close with the Tories or just a hail mary?
With the LibDems struggling they can afford to lose remain votes if they can recover some leave ones. Indeed losing remain votes in some seats is in their interest
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
Looks like we're on course for a massive ConservativeBrexit Party victory.
Under PR, extremists exist in separate parties. Under FPTP they take over established mainstream ones.
People pressured to vote as part of a religious bloc, who would have thought it?
This has being going on within certain ‘communities’ for decades now, it’s really not surprising any more - or is it just Labour supporters being surprised that it’s the Tories doing it in this case? Surprised not to have seen any gender-segregated rally photos yet, they usually surface about now in the campaign too.
I know, it’ll be one of the best things to happen when Northern Ireland leaves the UK. Religious bloc voting should have no place in this country. Hopefully Boris Johnson putting the border in the Irish Sea will accelerate Irish unification.
I prefer to support the Conservative and Unionist Party, but yes, when identity politics divides people along ethnic and religious lines, this is exactly what to expect.
Ladbrokes have a market entitled: "Most UK Votes: Greens v Brexit Party" They have Green Party at 4/6 and TBP at 11/10 TBP may be value here. In 2017, UKIP outperformed Greens by 13% in a similar number of seats that BXP is running in this time. Not a perfect comparison I know. Thoughts?
Why are people reheating exactly the same criticism of the YouGov MRP as last time out?
Leigh is the new Canterbury?
There will absolutely be big misses by the MRP forecast. And as I say I think this is the Tory high watermark.
But the whole "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occuring" when the previous election had large demographics shifts occurring is verging on gamblers fallacy.
The objection to MRP is not "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occurring". Clearly they have. It is reflected in the change in voting intention.
What big misses did MRP make last time, in relation to the main parties?
People pressured to vote as part of a religious bloc, who would have thought it?
This has being going on within certain ‘communities’ for decades now, it’s really not surprising any more - or is it just Labour supporters being surprised that it’s the Tories doing it in this case? Surprised not to have seen any gender-segregated rally photos yet, they usually surface about now in the campaign too.
I know, it’ll be one of the best things to happen when Northern Ireland leaves the UK.
Religious bloc voting should have no place in this country.
Hopefully Boris Johnson putting the border in the Irish Sea will accelerate Irish unification.
I agree religious voting should not be encouraged or done as a block. Unfortunately we have too many blocks (some regional some more national): Jewish, Muslim, Catholic, Protestant Any others?
"I agree religious voting should not be encouraged or done as a block."
If it's good enough for the Chief Rabbi, my boy....
A senior Labour figure has denied talk of his party shifting its focus to Leave-voting areas after a poll put the Tories on course for a comfortable majority https://t.co/TrEoVhpV1o
Now it's a big FU to the north and midlands. Class campaigning
I heard about the shift in resources to Leave seats on the BBC, so it must be true.
I've received a single piece of Labour literature - the one every party gets to send as part of the 1 mail freepost delivery. My ward flipped from Tory to Labour in the locals - it's been worked hard by the Tories but just the freepost from Labour. If they're launching a late effort I'll let you all know here.
Same here really. I had a lovely leaflet from Alun Cairns cuddling Boris and saying how lovely they both were. Nothing from Labour. Although I was very rude to Ms Loveluck-Edwards on the streets of Cowbridge, not because I like Little Alun, I don't, particularly after his outrageous contribution to the Ross England affair, but because I was in a hurry. I had a telephone canvass from Labour, where I said Ms Loveluck- Edward would get my vote, which she probably will. Not because I love Corbyn's brand of Soviet Socialist, but because between them the combination of lying Brexiteers that are Cairns and Boris don't deserve my vote.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
Looks like we're on course for a massive ConservativeBrexit Party victory.
Under PR, extremists exist in separate parties. Under FPTP they take over established mainstream ones.
On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson. Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this. Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets. Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland. Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist. The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.
With Boris looking likely to win a majority, it is time to give his plans serious scrutiny and get some firm commitments on the record.
His promise to 'Get Brexit Done' needs to be interrogated. We need to know precisely how he will will avoid a cold, hard Brexit in 12 months. A promise is required. We cannot afford to give him a blank cheque.
It’s not a promise we need. It’s details. Will we get them? Seems unlikely.
I disagree, it is unrealistic to expect details of a negotiation in advance, especially when its from the junior partner. What we need is credible and trusted leaders backed by experienced and successful negotiators. What we have is a vain liar backed by unicorn chasing buffoons.
We’re entitled to have details of our negotiating position and objectives, much like the US has set out.
The Tory manifesto does set out a negotiating position and objectives for the future relationship. Whilst they are vague and wishy washy that is probably best when we are the junior partner and need something to be agreed. The problem is that the PM has no attention to detail and forces himself into positions where he is subject to arbitrary deadlines, those give the advantage to the senior partner. Explaining our negotiating position openly in more detail would only benefit the EU. Fewer red lines from May initially would have led to a better WA.
What do we think Labour's change of strategy means? That they are confident they have secured lots of other areas that they can just throw all their resources at Brexit voting seats looking to flip them to really make it close with the Tories or just a hail mary?
Whatever the reasoning, the inability to turn around an oil tanker so close to port means that any regrets now will have little effect. They can't change policy without very obviously taking an even more convoluted position on Brexit that will be exposed on national media. They have time to alter the targeting of messages on social media, but more importantly they will be unable to change any printed material at this stage. When I was writing and ordering Labour election materials at GE 2017, all bar the on the week "Thursday is polling day" stuff had been long ago ordered or delivered at this stage.
Labour's spending manifesto to increase taxes for 'many millions outside top 5%, IFS says
File under 'no s*** sherlock'. If anyone thinks that widespread tax increase or similar aren't coming under labour, than i have a bridge to sell you...
I was going to sell you the one you bought two years ago for a second time.
Every time I see that headline saying that the spending plans "...aren't credible. IFS" My head reads as "...FFS" which is about right
Ladbrokes have a market entitled: "Most UK Votes: Greens v Brexit Party" They have Green Party at 4/6 and TBP at 11/10 TBP may be value here. In 2017, UKIP outperformed Greens by 13% in a similar number of seats that BXP is running in this time. Not a perfect comparison I know. Thoughts?
11/10 is massive value. Green voters are the most receptive to a tactical voting argument. Brexit Party voters much more likely to treat it as a protest vote.
PB has been far too focused on Brexit. This election is going to be decided by much more boring, golden-oldie topics, eg:
NI: the Union
Wales: living standards
Scotland: the Union
England: ongoing national decline; now into its 2nd century.
Certainly in Scotland the Union continues to trump Brexit which is why the Tory vote is holding up so much better than expected post Ruth. Swinson had better hope it does in East Dumbartonshire too.
Only a matter of time David,the unionists have had it in Scotland.
I think we have actually passed peak independence. Sturgeon is going to be seriously damaged by that trial and the SNP have no one else even close to the competence of either Salmond or Sturgeon. They have been remarkably fortunate in their leaders for a very considerable time. That time may be drawing to a close.
David, you may be right on Sturgeon but I do not see how you get the opinion re independence which is still on an upward trend and apart from pensioners would be an absolute certainty. It is only a matter of time and hopefully I will see it.
Maybe we will see the King across the Water back after his trial victory.
Angus Robertson or Mike Russell would be favourites I guess if not.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
? massive? With a tad less than half the vote.
Right-wing parties CON/UKIP/DUP/UUP got 50.4% of the vote in 2015.
A small story for those of you who think "A View From Cumbria" and I don't know what we are talking about when it comes to planting trees.
In the aftermath of WWII when the Easter Ross Seaboard Peninsula was handed back to the farming families and others who had been cleared out to enable the Americans to practice in secret for DDay, two small forests were planted around North Cadboll. One was at the bottom of my paddock. Around 6 years ago a team of scientists from Robert Gordon University arrived unannounced at my house because they had received funding to study the topography of the peninsula at the time the Vikings arrived to settle and over-run the picts in the 10th and 11th centuries. It transpired there were3 natural peat bogs across Easter Ross and one of them had literally been at the bottom of my paddock.
Due to the presence of the wood comprising crap Norwegian firs, they couldn't really achieve much. A couple of years later my neighbouring farmer who owned most of the wood decided to have it felled because timber prices had finally risen enough to make it a viable exercise. One of these huge tractor extractors came in and started felling the wood. Within 7 days when it had reached the far end of the wood, the peat bog had started to re-establish itself as the timber company discovered when the huge tractor extractor started to sink and ended up sunk up to the top of the top of the continuous track system it moves upon. They had to bring in one of these huge mobile cranes to pull it out before it sank completely. The wood has been replanted in a mix of nature trees but the core of the peat bog remains boggy where it was bone dry when the fir trees were present. I have a large resident population of wildlife including a small colony of roe deer, several pairs of herons and several more of buzzards plus red kites and other raptors. The local RSPB man comes down regularly and updates me on what is nesting etc where.
I was wrong. Business class air travel isn't the most obnoxiously boring subject discussed on pb.com
With Boris looking likely to win a majority, it is time to give his plans serious scrutiny and get some firm commitments on the record.
His promise to 'Get Brexit Done' needs to be interrogated. We need to know precisely how he will will avoid a cold, hard Brexit in 12 months. A promise is required. We cannot afford to give him a blank cheque.
It’s not a promise we need. It’s details. Will we get them? Seems unlikely.
I disagree, it is unrealistic to expect details of a negotiation in advance, especially when its from the junior partner. What we need is credible and trusted leaders backed by experienced and successful negotiators. What we have is a vain liar backed by unicorn chasing buffoons.
We’re entitled to have details of our negotiating position and objectives, much like the US has set out.
The Tory manifesto does set out a negotiating position and objectives for the future relationship. Whilst they are vague and wishy washy that is probably best when we are the junior partner and need something to be agreed. The problem is that the PM has no attention to detail and forces himself into positions where he is subject to arbitrary deadlines, those give the advantage to the senior partner. Explaining our negotiating position openly in more detail would only benefit the EU. Fewer red lines from May initially would have led to a better WA.
The red lines were all exactly what was promised during the referendum and a simple statement of what Brexit means. Which red line would you drop and how would that be consistent with the referendum?
Why are people reheating exactly the same criticism of the YouGov MRP as last time out?
Leigh is the new Canterbury?
There will absolutely be big misses by the MRP forecast. And as I say I think this is the Tory high watermark.
But the whole "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occuring" when the previous election had large demographics shifts occurring is verging on gamblers fallacy.
The objection to MRP is not "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occurring". Clearly they have. It is reflected in the change in voting intention.
What big misses did MRP make last time, in relation to the main parties?
I don't know. I guess you're addressing your question to Alistair?
What do we think Labour's change of strategy means? That they are confident they have secured lots of other areas that they can just throw all their resources at Brexit voting seats looking to flip them to really make it close with the Tories or just a hail mary?
Whatever the reasoning, the inability to turn around an oil tanker so close to port means that any regrets now will have little effect. They can't change policy without very obviously taking an even more convoluted position on Brexit that will be exposed on national media. They have time to alter the targeting of messages on social media, but more importantly they will be unable to change any printed material at this stage. When I was writing and ordering Labour election materials at GE 2017, all bar the on the week "Thursday is polling day" stuff had been long ago ordered or delivered at this stage.
Labour are clearly going to give the "Honest Broker" BS a really good go....and I think it will work to some extent.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
Voting under a PR system would be very different from FPTP, so its impossible to say. But it would certainly fracture politics. One thing we're seeing across Europe is PR'ish systems not producing anywhere near stable governments at all, see Spain, or Italy, or even Germany possibly in the future too.
Yes, for all its faults an FPTP system can mostly be relied on to produce a stable outcome - the last couple of elections notwithstanding. Certainly much more so than with PR systems, where it’s almost impossible for a party to get a majority and manifesto commitments become nothing more than bargaining chips in the coalition stitchup negotiations after the people have votes.
FPTP only produces 'strong and stable' governments if there are only two parties in contention. This was true in the 1950s, less so now. It also has the function of sometimes rewarding quite small percentages with massive majorities, which is not good for democracy.
That’s true, as was seen in 2005. Every system has advantages and disadvantages, and changes the dynamic among parties, what they believe and how they campaign. The LDs had the best shot for a generation to break two-party dominance at this election, but the same could also have been said of UKIP in 2015 and today of the Brexit Party.
With Boris looking likely to win a majority, it is time to give his plans serious scrutiny and get some firm commitments on the record.
His promise to 'Get Brexit Done' needs to be interrogated. We need to know precisely how he will will avoid a cold, hard Brexit in 12 months. A promise is required. We cannot afford to give him a blank cheque.
It’s not a promise we need. It’s details. Will we get them? Seems unlikely.
I disagree, it is unrealistic to expect details of a negotiation in advance, especially when its from the junior partner. What we need is credible and trusted leaders backed by experienced and successful negotiators. What we have is a vain liar backed by unicorn chasing buffoons.
We’re entitled to have details of our negotiating position and objectives, much like the US has set out.
The Tory manifesto does set out a negotiating position and objectives for the future relationship. Whilst they are vague and wishy washy that is probably best when we are the junior partner and need something to be agreed. The problem is that the PM has no attention to detail and forces himself into positions where he is subject to arbitrary deadlines, those give the advantage to the senior partner. Explaining our negotiating position openly in more detail would only benefit the EU. Fewer red lines from May initially would have led to a better WA.
The red lines were all exactly what was promised during the referendum and a simple statement of what Brexit means. Which red line would you drop and how would that be consistent with the referendum?
There is no mechanism within our Parliamentary democracy for a third party after an election to demand another party change its leader.
And no self-respecting party is going to agree to another party saying its leader must be XXX.
But a self-respecting party is entitled to say “we won’t support you under your current leadership.” Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers. I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either. The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right. So what to do?
You're Kilburn & Hampstead, no?
Sitting MP Tulip Siddiq is pretty good. She's no Corbynista and strongly pro-Remain. She won't necessarily hold on though, if what i hear is correct. The LDs are expecting a strong performance.
SNP lead over CON on YouGov MRP 13 percentage points, LibDem candidate (9% on MRP) is a serving Edinburgh councillor and by local reports is a paper candidate who won't be campaigning locally.
Good to see my MP well clear of the dross. We want to see all Ayrshire SNP, even those Blaggards in the south. How Tories hold there with the state of the roads and Ayr itself is beyond belief.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
Looks like we're on course for a massive ConservativeBrexit Party victory.
Under PR, extremists exist in separate parties. Under FPTP they take over established mainstream ones.
On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson. Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this. Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets. Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland. Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist. The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.
She does want another vote. A big one for a LibDem majority. If she got that (whisper -she won't) then there would have been a really massive shift of opinion in the country and she would have the democratic vote, the mandate and the country behind her. In the real world, the only way to stop Brexit is to have a second referendum.
If Swinson loses seats we need a good long series of threads on how shes the worst leader of a political party since that UKIP bloke that got suspended
Seems like Boris should do his AN interview on Monday....
The Panorama programme featuring an interview with an alleged Jeffrey Epstein victim who claims she slept with the Duke of York while under age will now be an hour long, the BBC has said.
I've put the YouGov constituency data into another spreadsheet because I found the ones already existing to be a bit difficult to read for various reasons.
How would any of your issues be helped by borrowing another couple of trillion, to add to the trillion and a half that we’ve borrowed already? The young who vote for that are selfishly transferring an even bigger burden to their own children.
You are literally just making up numbers. Do you actually think Labour plans to run a 20% of GDP fiscal deficit every year?
I think that Corbyn has every intention of borrowing or printing a couple of trillion over the course of a Parliament, yes. Maybe he’ll hide some of it by confiscation or undervaluation of shares in companies he doesn’t like, as they get expropriated by the State. Most of this is clearly obvious by reading his manifesto, and it shouldn’t be under-estimated the amount of capital flight that is set to happen on the morning of Friday 13th if it looks like he’ll be the next PM.
Delusional.
LOL, did you read his manifesto, and did you listen to what his conference were discussing? Businesses making preparations to mitigate the effects of a Corbyn government is very real indeed, and will happen literally overnight.
Sure, lots of wealthy people are looking for ways to protect their wealth. But your claim that Labour plans to borrow an additional 20% of GDP per year is complete innumerate nonsense and makes it hard for anyone to take you seriously.
Not just wealthy people (you know, those top 1% who contribute 27% of all income tax receipts, and run companies that collective pay more corporation tax than ever before) but he large multinational businesses that form the bedrock of my pension and probably yours. By the way, the 20% of GDP figure is yours not mine - massive inflation, devaluation and recession could change it significantly after five years of a Corbyn government, as could deciding to print money and expropriate businesses, rather than borrowing directly from the markets.
Why are people reheating exactly the same criticism of the YouGov MRP as last time out?
Leigh is the new Canterbury?
There will absolutely be big misses by the MRP forecast. And as I say I think this is the Tory high watermark.
But the whole "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occuring" when the previous election had large demographics shifts occurring is verging on gamblers fallacy.
The objection to MRP is not "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occurring". Clearly they have. It is reflected in the change in voting intention.
What big misses did MRP make last time, in relation to the main parties?
Biggest Labour outperformance of the Tories from MRP to result (Alastair from Edinburgh's figures) / Ben Walker result figures
Bootle Ilford South Hackney South & Shoreditch Knowsley Liverpool, Walton Manchester, Gorton Harrow West Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill Denton & Reddish Birmingham, Hodge Hill
Biggest outperformance of the Tories compared to Labour
Basildon & Billericay Boston & Skegness South Swindon The Cotswolds Harwich & North Essex Westmorland & Lonsdale Castle Point Newark Clacton Thornbury & Yate
In all the above outperformances, the Tories outperformed relative to the Lib Dems (But by a lesser margin) too.
Outperformance by the LDs relative to the Tories
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Albans Manchester, Gorton North Norfolk Bootle Carshalton & Wallington Liverpool, Walton Witney Leeds North West Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
Outperformance by the Tories relative to the Lib Dems
Windsor Brecon and Radnorshire Wycombe Clacton East Devon North East Hampshire Maidstone and The Weald Solihull The Cotswolds Buckingham
People pressured to vote as part of a religious bloc, who would have thought it?
This has being going on within certain ‘communities’ for decades now, it’s really not surprising any more - or is it just Labour supporters being surprised that it’s the Tories doing it in this case? Surprised not to have seen any gender-segregated rally photos yet, they usually surface about now in the campaign too.
I know, it’ll be one of the best things to happen when Northern Ireland leaves the UK.
Religious bloc voting should have no place in this country.
Hopefully Boris Johnson putting the border in the Irish Sea will accelerate Irish unification.
I agree religious voting should not be encouraged or done as a block. Unfortunately we have too many blocks (some regional some more national): Jewish, Muslim, Catholic, Protestant Any others?
"I agree religious voting should not be encouraged or done as a block." If it's good enough for the Chief Rabbi, my boy....
Is the Chief Rabbi endorsing any particular candidate or party, or is he simply pointing out that he believes that one party sees his race as inferior people (or is that superior people)?
Under PR, extremists exist in separate parties. Under FPTP they take over established mainstream ones.
On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson. Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this. Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets. Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland. Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist. The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.
She does want another vote. A big one for a LibDem majority. If she got that (whisper -she won't) then there would have been a really massive shift of opinion in the country and she would have the democratic vote, the mandate and the country behind her. In the real world, the only way to stop Brexit is to have a second referendum.
Indeed but stopping Brexit is a minority pursuit at the best of times. Stopping Brexit without a second referendum is a truly extremist ambition - and the country isn't full of extremists which is why she is doing so badly. Sure if she got that then there would be a really massive shift of opinion, but there hasn't been that massive shift of opinion which leaves extremist Swinson left looking rather isolated, tragic and absurd.
On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson. Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this. Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets. Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland. Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist. The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.
Delivering a Hard Brexit on 52/48 split for remaining is extreme. Deselecting anyone who diverges from the Hard Brexit opinion from within the Conservative Party is extreme. Visiting extreme economic deprivation and disruption by leaving our largest trading partner with 46 years' accrued entanglement in order to solve an internal party dispute is extreme.
I'm guessing you don't actually work in the real world, where the impact of a Brexit that hasn't even happened yet is already impacting this country. If you did. you wouldn't spout such errant nonsense.
Ladbrokes have a market entitled: "Most UK Votes: Greens v Brexit Party" They have Green Party at 4/6 and TBP at 11/10 TBP may be value here. In 2017, UKIP outperformed Greens by 13% in a similar number of seats that BXP is running in this time. Not a perfect comparison I know. Thoughts?
11/10 is massive value. Green voters are the most receptive to a tactical voting argument. Brexit Party voters much more likely to treat it as a protest vote.
Planting 350m in one day as a one off when you've spent time preparing for that one day is very possible. All those young trees that got planted took time to develop to the point they were ready to be planted. If at the end of that day they'd thought "that was fun, lets do it again tomorrow" then that wouldn't have worked.
That's before we consider where we'd find the space for the billions and billions of trees spoken about. Ethiopia is of course 4.5 times the size of the entire United Kingdom.
Can someone explain the idea of we need trees to prevent flooding by absorbing rainwater idea to me. I understand the notion that the trees will absorb the water thus preventing flooding - but does that not result in the risk of the opposite problem? Ie that when we go through a dry spell resulting in a drought the trees will still be needing water thus making the drought effects worse? Would we be facing many more hosepipe bans etc etc?
Interesting question. I think not, because trees do not take water from aquifers or reservoirs, and the tree canopy generally keeps woodland floor damp. Overall I would think more trees would have zero impact on drought at worst, and probably create a beneficial effect.
One of the main problems with flooding which most commentators seem to miss, is how it is exacerbated by run off caused by building high intensity housing on low lying areas. This is then a double whammy as said houses are then liable to be flooded.
Without trees, water runs off quickly, floods, then disappears. With trees, water is retained so less flooding when it rains and a slow release of water during dry periods.
Depends what kind of land you're looking at. (Stable) peat moorland, for example, provides an excellent very long term carbon sink, and retains a very large amount of water.
True, but global warming is likely to make a lot of peat moorland unstable, causing it to release a large amount of its stored carbon into the atmosphere. Another of the extremely dangerous potential positive feedbacks that we're currently idiotically messing with.
How would any of your issues be helped by borrowing another couple of trillion, to add to the trillion and a half that we’ve borrowed already? The young who vote for that are selfishly transferring an even bigger burden to their own children.
You are literally just making up numbers. Do you actually think Labour plans to run a 20% of GDP fiscal deficit every year?
I think that Corbyn has every intention of borrowing or printing a couple of trillion over the course of a Parliament, yes. Maybe he’ll hide some of it by confiscation or undervaluation of shares in companies he doesn’t like, as they get expropriated by the State. Most of this is clearly obvious by reading his manifesto, and it shouldn’t be under-estimated the amount of capital flight that is set to happen on the morning of Friday 13th if it looks like he’ll be the next PM.
Delusional.
LOL, did you read his manifesto, and did you listen to what his conference were discussing? Businesses making preparations to mitigate the effects of a Corbyn government is very real indeed, and will happen literally overnight.
Sure, lots of wealthy people are looking for ways to protect their wealth. But your claim that Labour plans to borrow an additional 20% of GDP per year is complete innumerate nonsense and makes it hard for anyone to take you seriously.
Not just wealthy people (you know, those top 1% who contribute 27% of all income tax receipts, and run companies that collective pay more corporation tax than ever before) but he large multinational businesses that form the bedrock of my pension and probably yours. By the way, the 20% of GDP figure is yours not mine - massive inflation, devaluation and recession could change it significantly after five years of a Corbyn government, as could deciding to print money and expropriate businesses, rather than borrowing directly from the markets.
I am one of the 1% myself, and unlike you I live here and actually pay my taxes, so don't lecture me. However you want to spin it, the numbers you have pulled out of your arse are a fantasy. The 20% of GDP figure isn't my number, it is yours! £2trn = 100% of UK GDP, or 20% per year over five years. There are plenty of criticisms one can make of Labour's plans, but just making up numbers like this is not the best way to go about it.
Comments
Surprised not to have seen any gender-segregated rally photos yet, they usually surface about now in the campaign too.
“Why don’t we start telling people we back Leave”?
“Genius”.
One thing we're seeing across Europe is PR'ish systems not producing anywhere near stable governments at all, see Spain, or Italy, or even Germany possibly in the future too.
Now it's a big FU to the north and midlands. Class campaigning
Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers.
I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either.
The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right.
So what to do?
Dualling the Southern Bypass and adding the missing half of a motorway junction.
Building the often promised bypass on the north of the town (this bit is costed however as it's part of the existing regional proposals).
And that's before the public transport building works - mind you they are essential as in September 2025 train buffs worldwide will be looking at the 200th anniversary of trains.
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2019/11/in-defence-of-ifs-and-why-it-cannot.html
"voters (who) don't really take that much notice". They don't take notice..of anything other than gut like or dislike. Do they like Corbyn or Johnson. That's the gut.
But Jezza told me.....cos Jezza hasn't got a f##king clue. He didn't even have an idea about the proportion of the tax take coming from the richest.
stitchupnegotiations after the people have votes.Religious bloc voting should have no place in this country.
Hopefully Boris Johnson putting the border in the Irish Sea will accelerate Irish unification.
I doubt whether he'll receive much succour either from Peter Kellner, who along with his wife, Baroness Ashton, are lifelong Socialists are are therefore more likely to be interested in saving Labour seats than those targeted by the Yellow team.
Carrying on with your excellent analysis and scrutiny on here will have far more impact than which way you vote. (Even if in the big quantum of things that isnt much impact either but each of us is only one amongst very very many).
Jo Swinson more conservative than Conservatives...
Businesses making preparations to mitigate the effects of a Corbyn government is very real indeed, and will happen literally overnight.
If they're launching a late effort I'll let you all know here.
Reporting both parties as though they are equally irresponsible strikes me as a contrived attempt at balance that is exactly the opposite.
The only silver lining for the Conservatives is that the BBC might after all convince the public that the Conservatives are proposing a fiscal package that goes some way to address the public's yearning for an end to austerity, after Johnson's manifesto did its best to convince the public that the goody bag was all but empty.
Unfortunately we have too many blocks (some regional some more national):
Jewish, Muslim, Catholic, Protestant
Any others?
Lib Dems in the last Parliament refused to support Corbyn or Johnson but that just meant Johnson remained in Downing Street running a minority government, it didn't mean either got replaced. If the Lib Dems are in a kingmaker position in a Hung Parliament but refuse to support either leader then that is a choice - the leader of the largest bloc will defacto run a minority administration.
Unless the Lib Dems side with either Tories or Labour they are a glorified protest vote/spoilt ballot at this election.
SNP lead over CON on YouGov MRP 13 percentage points, LibDem candidate (9% on MRP) is a serving Edinburgh councillor and by local reports is a paper candidate who won't be campaigning locally.
But your claim that Labour plans to borrow an additional 20% of GDP per year is complete innumerate nonsense and makes it hard for anyone to take you seriously.
Under PR, extremists exist in separate parties. Under FPTP they take over established mainstream ones.
"Most UK Votes: Greens v Brexit Party"
They have Green Party at 4/6 and TBP at 11/10
TBP may be value here. In 2017, UKIP outperformed Greens by 13% in a similar number of seats that BXP is running in this time. Not a perfect comparison I know.
Thoughts?
If it's good enough for the Chief Rabbi, my boy....
Nothing from Labour. Although I was very rude to Ms Loveluck-Edwards on the streets of Cowbridge, not because I like Little Alun, I don't, particularly after his outrageous contribution to the Ross England affair, but because I was in a hurry.
I had a telephone canvass from Labour, where I said Ms Loveluck- Edward would get my vote, which she probably will. Not because I love Corbyn's brand of Soviet Socialist, but because between them the combination of lying Brexiteers that are Cairns and Boris don't deserve my vote.
Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this.
Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets.
Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland.
Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist.
The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.
Explaining our negotiating position openly in more detail would only benefit the EU. Fewer red lines from May initially would have led to a better WA.
Good stuff!
DavidL said:
malcolmg said:
DavidL said:
StuartDickson said:
PB has been far too focused on Brexit. This election is going to be decided by much more boring, golden-oldie topics, eg:
NI: the Union
Wales: living standards
Scotland: the Union
England: ongoing national decline; now into its 2nd century.
Certainly in Scotland the Union continues to trump Brexit which is why the Tory vote is holding up so much better than expected post Ruth. Swinson had better hope it does in East Dumbartonshire too.
Only a matter of time David,the unionists have had it in Scotland.
I think we have actually passed peak independence. Sturgeon is going to be seriously damaged by that trial and the SNP have no one else even close to the competence of either Salmond or Sturgeon. They have been remarkably fortunate in their leaders for a very considerable time. That time may be drawing to a close.
David, you may be right on Sturgeon but I do not see how you get the opinion re independence which is still on an upward trend and apart from pensioners would be an absolute certainty. It is only a matter of time and hopefully I will see it.
Maybe we will see the King across the Water back after his trial victory.
Angus Robertson or Mike Russell would be favourites I guess if not.
Sitting MP Tulip Siddiq is pretty good. She's no Corbynista and strongly pro-Remain. She won't necessarily hold on though, if what i hear is correct. The LDs are expecting a strong performance.
You're spoilt for choice, Ms Cyclefree!
We want to see all Ayrshire SNP, even those Blaggards in the south. How Tories hold there with the state of the roads and Ayr itself is beyond belief.
In the real world, the only way to stop Brexit is to have a second referendum.
The Panorama programme featuring an interview with an alleged Jeffrey Epstein victim who claims she slept with the Duke of York while under age will now be an hour long, the BBC has said.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7732393/BBC-extends-Panorama-episode-featuring-interview-Duke-York-s-accuser.html
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
By the way, the 20% of GDP figure is yours not mine - massive inflation, devaluation and recession could change it significantly after five years of a Corbyn government, as could deciding to print money and expropriate businesses, rather than borrowing directly from the markets.
Bootle
Ilford South
Hackney South & Shoreditch
Knowsley
Liverpool, Walton
Manchester, Gorton
Harrow West
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
Denton & Reddish
Birmingham, Hodge Hill
Biggest outperformance of the Tories compared to Labour
Basildon & Billericay
Boston & Skegness
South Swindon
The Cotswolds
Harwich & North Essex
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Castle Point
Newark
Clacton
Thornbury & Yate
In all the above outperformances, the Tories outperformed relative to the Lib Dems (But by a lesser margin) too.
Outperformance by the LDs relative to the Tories
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Albans
Manchester, Gorton
North Norfolk
Bootle
Carshalton & Wallington
Liverpool, Walton
Witney
Leeds North West
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
Outperformance by the Tories relative to the Lib Dems
Windsor
Brecon and Radnorshire
Wycombe
Clacton
East Devon
North East Hampshire
Maidstone and The Weald
Solihull
The Cotswolds
Buckingham
Sure if she got that then there would be a really massive shift of opinion, but there hasn't been that massive shift of opinion which leaves extremist Swinson left looking rather isolated, tragic and absurd.
I'm guessing you don't actually work in the real world, where the impact of a Brexit that hasn't even happened yet is already impacting this country. If you did. you wouldn't spout such errant nonsense.
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50585818
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/28/ifs-manifesto-verdict-neither-tories-nor-labour-have-credible-spending-plan
That's before we consider where we'd find the space for the billions and billions of trees spoken about. Ethiopia is of course 4.5 times the size of the entire United Kingdom.
However you want to spin it, the numbers you have pulled out of your arse are a fantasy. The 20% of GDP figure isn't my number, it is yours! £2trn = 100% of UK GDP, or 20% per year over five years.
There are plenty of criticisms one can make of Labour's plans, but just making up numbers like this is not the best way to go about it.