Telegraph with a piece that actually rather than 2017 a landslide is in the offing a la Blair 97
Anything but. If an 11% vote share lead can only generate a 68 seat majority, when 2 other of the most recent polls already have the lead down to 7%, then it suggests that the election is on a knife edge. It is quite plausible now that the Tory lead could end up around 6%, and if so then the MRP is effectively saying that Johnson's majority is all but gone. That;s before addressing the likelihood of some tactical voting understatement in the MRP model. I made pretty well the same point a few days ago as Cummings is reported as making in the Telegraph yesterday - i.e that a small BXP national vote share still amounts to more than double that at the expense of the Conservatives in the minority of seats the BXP are still standing in, including all the key marginals that Johnson needs to gain. From the Telegraph: "Despite the Tories’ consistent lead over Labour, Mr Cummings wrote a blog that he described as a “bat signal” to warn that “Brexit is in danger”. He said: “You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.” He argued that while the Brexit Party is struggling overall, it is still polling at 10 per cent in marginal seats where the Tories and Labour are neck and neck." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/27/election-result-close-call-warns-dominic-cummings/
Before getting on to the subject of the environment, Jeremy Corbyn starts by saying it would be remiss of him not to say a few words about Donald Trump and Boris Johnson.
Yesterday, Mr Corbyn claimed he had "proof" the NHS was at risk under a post-Brexit trade deal with the US.
He says those revelations “absolutely shredded” all of Mr Johnson’s denials that the NHS wasn't on the table in trade conversations with the US.
“This election is now a fight for the survival of the NHS as a public service.”
He says you can vote Tory to “sell out the NHS” or vote Labour to save the NHS
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
? massive? With a tad less than half the vote.
You might have a point there, it would depend on which of the many other systems was used. Under AV it would have been a likely landslide for that coalition, under something strictly proportional but regional the DUP would have seen them over the line.
Anything but. If an 11% vote share lead can only generate a 68 seat majority, when 2 other of the most recent polls already have the lead down to 7%, then it suggests that the election is on a knife edge.
I think we will start to see 5-7% leads across the board at the weekend.
On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson. Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this. Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets. Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland. Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist. The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.
Delivering a Hard Brexit on 52/48 split for remaining is extreme. Deselecting anyone who diverges from the Hard Brexit opinion from within the Conservative Party is extreme. Visiting extreme economic deprivation and disruption by leaving our largest trading partner with 46 years' accrued entanglement in order to solve an internal party dispute is extreme.
I'm guessing you don't actually work in the real world, where the impact of a Brexit that hasn't even happened yet is already impacting this country. If you did. you wouldn't spout such errant nonsense.
Johnson has a deal so we aren't getting a Hard Brexit. We aren't leaving our trading partner to solve an internal party dispute, we're doing so because the largest democratic vote to support anything ever was the vote to leave. If all 17.4 million were internal to the Tory Party then the Tory Party would get a mammoth landslide in a fortnight even without any Remainers. You're talking bollock in other words.
People pressured to vote as part of a religious bloc, who would have thought it?
This has being going on within certain ‘communities’ for decades now, it’s really not surprising any more - or is it just Labour supporters being surprised that it’s the Tories doing it in this case? Surprised not to have seen any gender-segregated rally photos yet, they usually surface about now in the campaign too.
I know, it’ll be one of the best things to happen when Northern Ireland leaves the UK.
Religious bloc voting should have no place in this country.
Hopefully Boris Johnson putting the border in the Irish Sea will accelerate Irish unification.
I agree religious voting should not be encouraged or done as a block. Unfortunately we have too many blocks (some regional some more national): Jewish, Muslim, Catholic, Protestant Any others?
"I agree religious voting should not be encouraged or done as a block." If it's good enough for the Chief Rabbi, my boy....
Is the Chief Rabbi endorsing any particular candidate or party, or is he simply pointing out that he believes that one party sees his race as inferior people (or is that superior people)?
No, I am sure he will be perfectly happy for people to support Tommy Robinson, the EDL, the BNP, The Brexit Party or any other they may choose.
Planting 350m in one day as a one off when you've spent time preparing for that one day is very possible. All those young trees that got planted took time to develop to the point they were ready to be planted. If at the end of that day they'd thought "that was fun, lets do it again tomorrow" then that wouldn't have worked.
That's before we consider where we'd find the space for the billions and billions of trees spoken about. Ethiopia is of course 4.5 times the size of the entire United Kingdom.
We'd only need to plant 350m trees in a day six times, over twenty years, to hit the Labour target. Plenty of time to prepare for each mega planting day. Land could be a challenge, but, were we to be free of [the CAP thanks to] Brexit there is a lot of money that currently subsidizes marginal agriculture that could be used to incentivise landowners to plant trees instead. It doesn't look absurdly impossible to me.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
?? 2015: 36.8% Vote share for the Conservatives 12.6% Vote share for UKIP not even a majority
Anything but. If an 11% vote share lead can only generate a 68 seat majority, when 2 other of the most recent polls already have the lead down to 7%, then it suggests that the election is on a knife edge.
I think we will start to see 5-7% leads across the board at the weekend.
I think this weekend will see Labour reach their peak and 5-7% Con leads are quite possible.
Next week will see the lead stabilize and then from the final weekend polls through to 12/12/19 we'll see the Con lead growing again as the usual last week swing back to the government gathers pace.
We finish up roughly where we started which is Con around 10% ahead and they get a majority of between 30-40 seats as I've said all along.
On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson. Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this. Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets. Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland. Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist. The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.
Delivering a Hard Brexit on 52/48 split for remaining is extreme. Deselecting anyone who diverges from the Hard Brexit opinion from within the Conservative Party is extreme. Visiting extreme economic deprivation and disruption by leaving our largest trading partner with 46 years' accrued entanglement in order to solve an internal party dispute is extreme.
I'm guessing you don't actually work in the real world, where the impact of a Brexit that hasn't even happened yet is already impacting this country. If you did. you wouldn't spout such errant nonsense.
Johnson has a deal so we aren't getting a Hard Brexit. We aren't leaving our trading partner to solve an internal party dispute, we're doing so because the largest democratic vote to support anything ever was the vote to leave. If all 17.4 million were internal to the Tory Party then the Tory Party would get a mammoth landslide in a fortnight even without any Remainers. You're talking bollock in other words.
Johnson hasn't got a deal.
He has a deal for the transition period which is currently until 1st January 2021. That isn't the same as a long term deal with a settled relationship with the EU. It's also why Brexit is so hard - the reality is that we haven't even started yet.
LOL at Sky switching off an emotional Swinson to speak about sourdough bread. Tackling the big issues of the day!
Haven't been watching but is there any partiuclar reason Swinson is "emotional" over the subject of sourdough bread?
LOL no. She was emotional trying to score political points over Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. She started to well up while talking about it then Sky switched her off and started interviewing a baker who is campaigning on 'real sourdough bread' and wants to ensure the name sourdough is protected.
On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson. Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this. Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets. Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland. Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist. The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.
Delivering a Hard Brexit on 52/48 split for remaining is extreme. Deselecting anyone who diverges from the Hard Brexit opinion from within the Conservative Party is extreme. Visiting extreme economic deprivation and disruption by leaving our largest trading partner with 46 years' accrued entanglement in order to solve an internal party dispute is extreme.
I'm guessing you don't actually work in the real world, where the impact of a Brexit that hasn't even happened yet is already impacting this country. If you did. you wouldn't spout such errant nonsense.
Johnson has a deal so we aren't getting a Hard Brexit. We aren't leaving our trading partner to solve an internal party dispute, we're doing so because the largest democratic vote to support anything ever was the vote to leave. If all 17.4 million were internal to the Tory Party then the Tory Party would get a mammoth landslide in a fortnight even without any Remainers. You're talking bollock in other words.
Johnson hasn't got a deal.
He has a deal for the transition period which is currently until 1st January 2021. That isn't the same as a long term deal with a settled relationship with the EU. It's also why Brexit is so hard - the reality is that we haven't even started yet.
A reality which our politicians have done a very poor job of explaining, so far.
Aaah! That explains it. You are one of the people who can afford to be a socialist. Your posts make perfect sense now.
So what is someone in the 1% to do? Vote conservative and you are a selfish *&%$. Vote Labour and you slagged off as someone who can "afford to be a socialist".
He has a deal for the transition period which is currently until 1st January 2021. That isn't the same as a long term deal with a settled relationship with the EU. It's also why Brexit is so hard - the reality is that we haven't even started yet.
He's got an exit deal and Brexit will be done then. We will be out. Sure we will negotiate a trade deal. Independent countries do them all the time. Don't see countries across the globe running around like headless chickens because they're negotiating deals.
Aaah! That explains it. You are one of the people who can afford to be a socialist. Your posts make perfect sense now.
So what is someone in the 1% to do? Vote conservative and you are a selfish *&%$. Vote Labour and you slagged off as someone who can "afford to be a socialist".
I think one is expected to be a tax exile and donate to the tory party quietly.
On topic, the headline of this article is self-defeating. It's pretty obvious that the easiest way for Corbyn to become PM is if no-one thinks he can. The real takeaway is that no-one should vote Lib Dem unless they actually want to, since you won't get Swinson either way and run the risk of ending up with the wrong one of the main two evils.
LOL at Sky switching off an emotional Swinson to speak about sourdough bread. Tackling the big issues of the day!
Haven't been watching but is there any partiuclar reason Swinson is "emotional" over the subject of sourdough bread?
LOL no. She was emotional trying to score political points over Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. She started to well up while talking about it then Sky switched her off and started interviewing a baker who is campaigning on 'real sourdough bread' and wants to ensure the name sourdough is protected.
On the policy of Brexit the only extremist leading a mainstream party if you can call it that is Jo Swinson. Corbyn is an extremist on virtually everything else but is fencesitting on this. Johnson is the most mainstream leader of all - proposing to honour what the people voted for is as mainstream as it gets. Sturgeon is mainstream for Scotland. Swinson though doesn't just want to reverse what the people voted for, she wants to do so without another vote. Crazed extremist. The problem Remainers have is they haven't woken up to the fact that Remaining is not accepted mainstream opinion.
Delivering a Hard Brexit on 52/48 split for remaining is extreme. Deselecting anyone who diverges from the Hard Brexit opinion from within the Conservative Party is extreme. Visiting extreme economic deprivation and disruption by leaving our largest trading partner with 46 years' accrued entanglement in order to solve an internal party dispute is extreme.
I'm guessing you don't actually work in the real world, where the impact of a Brexit that hasn't even happened yet is already impacting this country. If you did. you wouldn't spout such errant nonsense.
Johnson has a deal so we aren't getting a Hard Brexit. We aren't leaving our trading partner to solve an internal party dispute, we're doing so because the largest democratic vote to support anything ever was the vote to leave. If all 17.4 million were internal to the Tory Party then the Tory Party would get a mammoth landslide in a fortnight even without any Remainers. You're talking bollock in other words.
Johnson has a putative agreement to leave the EU. He doesn't have a future trade deal with the EU, and has <12 months to get one (when most take years, even decades). So in all likelihood if his WA is passed we will leave on WTO terms on 31/12/20. Brexit was a minority interest until the Tories cooked up a referendum on it as a way to solve their internal disputes and fear of UKIP depriving them of a majority again. 17.4m people, of whom a significant minority will now have passed on, were voting for a large variety of outcomes that didn't exist, weren't thought through, and were mis-sold, often against their own interests, on the basis of deliberate misinformation.
And I note you haven't indicated what real world job you perform.
There is no mechanism within our Parliamentary democracy for a third party after an election to demand another party change its leader.
And no self-respecting party is going to agree to another party saying its leader must be XXX.
But a self-respecting party is entitled to say “we won’t support you under your current leadership.” Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers. I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either. The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right. So what to do?
You're Kilburn & Hampstead, no?
Sitting MP Tulip Siddiq is pretty good. She's no Corbynista and strongly pro-Remain. She won't necessarily hold on though, if what i hear is correct. The LDs are expecting a strong performance.
You're spoilt for choice, Ms Cyclefree!
Tulip is ok. She has been very active in trying to help that poor Iranian woman locked up in prison. She rather blotted her copybook in relation to the Bangladeshi man who asked for her help and the nasty way she responded to the Channel 4 reporter. But it doesn’t matter that she was pro Remain and that she’s not a Corbynista. A vote for her is a vote for Corbyn as PM, McDonnell as Chancellor and Corbynista policies. She’s deluding herself and the voters if she thinks - or tries to pretend - otherwise. Same for all the other Labour MPS who are trying to pretend Corbyn is not their leader. Edited: and indeed all those Labour voters deluding themselves they can get Labour without Corbyn.
Voting decisions Three quarters (77%) of those with a voting intention say they’ve made up their mind on who they’ll vote for, while just under a quarter (23%) say they may change their mind. Those who say they’ll vote Conservative or SNP are surer of their vote than those voting Labour or Liberal Democrat. 84% of both SNP supporters and Conservative supporters say they’ve definitely decided, compared with 73% of Labour supporters and 66% of Liberal Democrat supporters. https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/scotland-voting-intention-snp-pole-position-run-election
Planting 350m in one day as a one off when you've spent time preparing for that one day is very possible. All those young trees that got planted took time to develop to the point they were ready to be planted. If at the end of that day they'd thought "that was fun, lets do it again tomorrow" then that wouldn't have worked.
That's before we consider where we'd find the space for the billions and billions of trees spoken about. Ethiopia is of course 4.5 times the size of the entire United Kingdom.
Not convinced about that 350m in a day claim, and let's see how many survive for 3 months. Dry old country, Ethiopia. It is admittedly full of eucalyptus gunnii from the 1890s planting but they are using unspecified native species this time round.
But woodland is miserable stuff anyway; it exists only because you haven't got round to clearing it yet, or for firewood and building material, or to hold animals to hunt or shoot. It doesn't even have amenity value; think how interesting the walk to the top of Helvellyn would be if it were a forest track. We'd be much better off with efficient artificial carbon sequestration and not wasting acres of useful land.
This 2 billion trees. Lets presume you can actually plant that many trees at the suggested rate, where are they going to put them all, especially as Labour wants to build a million more houses?
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
PR would not have given Con/UKIP a majority. What's your source?
Furthermore, many people voting tactically under FPTP would choose to vote very differently under PR - Con and Lab and LD voters voting Green. Con and Lab voters voting Brexit, more LD voters. Look at the Scottish Parliament where Greens have succeeded because of PR. Voters can afford to vote positively rather than negatively.
Telegraph with a piece that actually rather than 2017 a landslide is in the offing a la Blair 97
Anything but. If an 11% vote share lead can only generate a 68 seat majority, when 2 other of the most recent polls already have the lead down to 7%, then it suggests that the election is on a knife edge. It is quite plausible now that the Tory lead could end up around 6%, and if so then the MRP is effectively saying that Johnson's majority is all but gone. That;s before addressing the likelihood of some tactical voting understatement in the MRP model. I made pretty well the same point a few days ago as Cummings is reported as making in the Telegraph yesterday - i.e that a small BXP national vote share still amounts to more than double that at the expense of the Conservatives in the minority of seats the BXP are still standing in, including all the key marginals that Johnson needs to gain. From the Telegraph: "Despite the Tories’ consistent lead over Labour, Mr Cummings wrote a blog that he described as a “bat signal” to warn that “Brexit is in danger”. He said: “You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.” He argued that while the Brexit Party is struggling overall, it is still polling at 10 per cent in marginal seats where the Tories and Labour are neck and neck." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/27/election-result-close-call-warns-dominic-cummings/
I am going to be so impossibly smug if we get a hung Parliament, having predicted this from the beginning.
LOL, did you read his manifesto, and did you listen to what his conference were discussing? Businesses making preparations to mitigate the effects of a Corbyn government is very real indeed, and will happen literally overnight.
Sure, lots of wealthy people are looking for ways to protect their wealth. But your claim that Labour plans to borrow an additional 20% of GDP per year is complete innumerate nonsense and makes it hard for anyone to take you seriously.
Not just wealthy people (you know, those top 1% who contribute 27% of all income tax receipts, and run companies that collective pay more corporation tax than ever before) but he large multinational businesses that form the bedrock of my pension and probably yours. By the way, the 20% of GDP figure is yours not mine - massive inflation, devaluation and recession could change it significantly after five years of a Corbyn government, as could deciding to print money and expropriate businesses, rather than borrowing directly from the markets.
I am one of the 1% myself, and unlike you I live here and actually pay my taxes, so don't lecture me. However you want to spin it, the numbers you have pulled out of your arse are a fantasy. The 20% of GDP figure isn't my number, it is yours! £2trn = 100% of UK GDP, or 20% per year over five years. There are plenty of criticisms one can make of Labour's plans, but just making up numbers like this is not the best way to go about it.
You are of course free to disagree with my numbers, but you need to substitute your own. How much will a Corbyn government borrow over the course of the next Parliament, in your opinion? How much extra government income will go so servicing debt, rather than spent on public services?
Sounds like the 350 million in a day figure is dodgy at best...
The head of one government-linked organisation told the BBC they'd been ordered to plant 10,000 trees, but had to pay for them out of their own budget. So they planted 5,000, but reported the full amount. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49266983
It seems basically the government gave a huge number of the public seedlings and said please plant them on this day.
So if Jezza going to be instructing us all to start planting trees in our own gardens?
This 2 billion trees. Lets presume you can actually plant that many trees at the suggested rate, where are they going to put them all, especially as Labour wants to build a million more houses?
Look at the upside. With so many more trees Nimbys won't be able to see the new houses which will at least allow them to be built.
This 2 billion trees. Lets presume you can actually plant that many trees at the suggested rate, where are they going to put them all, especially as Labour wants to build a million more houses?
Look at the upside. With so many more trees Nimbys won't be able to see the new houses which will at least allow them to be built.
Or everybody is going to live in a treehouse? When Jezza and his mates have tanked the economy it is probably all most people will be able to afford anyway.
Why are people reheating exactly the same criticism of the YouGov MRP as last time out?
Leigh is the new Canterbury?
There will absolutely be big misses by the MRP forecast. And as I say I think this is the Tory high watermark.
But the whole "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occuring" when the previous election had large demographics shifts occurring is verging on gamblers fallacy.
The objection to MRP is not "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occurring". Clearly they have. It is reflected in the change in voting intention.
What big misses did MRP make last time, in relation to the main parties?
I don't know. I guess you're addressing your question to Alistair?
Writing the script to calculate 2017 accuracy even as we speak.
Sounds like the 350 million in a day figure is dodgy at best...
The head of one government-linked organisation told the BBC they'd been ordered to plant 10,000 trees, but had to pay for them out of their own budget. So they planted 5,000, but reported the full amount. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49266983
It seems basically the government gave a huge number of the public seedlings and said please plant them on this day.
So if Jezza going to be instructing us all to start planting trees in our own gardens?
Sounds like the 350 million in a day figure is dodgy at best...
The head of one government-linked organisation told the BBC they'd been ordered to plant 10,000 trees, but had to pay for them out of their own budget. So they planted 5,000, but reported the full amount. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49266983
It seems basically the government gave a huge number of the public seedlings and said please plant them on this day.
So if Jezza going to be instructing us all to start planting trees in our own gardens?
Telegraph with a piece that actually rather than 2017 a landslide is in the offing a la Blair 97
Anything but. If an 11% vote share lead can only generate a 68 seat majority, when 2 other of the most recent polls already have the lead down to 7%, then it suggests that the election is on a knife edge. It is quite plausible now that the Tory lead could end up around 6%, and if so then the MRP is effectively saying that Johnson's majority is all but gone. That;s before addressing the likelihood of some tactical voting understatement in the MRP model. I made pretty well the same point a few days ago as Cummings is reported as making in the Telegraph yesterday - i.e that a small BXP national vote share still amounts to more than double that at the expense of the Conservatives in the minority of seats the BXP are still standing in, including all the key marginals that Johnson needs to gain. From the Telegraph: "Despite the Tories’ consistent lead over Labour, Mr Cummings wrote a blog that he described as a “bat signal” to warn that “Brexit is in danger”. He said: “You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.” He argued that while the Brexit Party is struggling overall, it is still polling at 10 per cent in marginal seats where the Tories and Labour are neck and neck." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/27/election-result-close-call-warns-dominic-cummings/
I think a Boris final score of between 320-335 seats is very possible.
Why are people reheating exactly the same criticism of the YouGov MRP as last time out?
Leigh is the new Canterbury?
There will absolutely be big misses by the MRP forecast. And as I say I think this is the Tory high watermark.
But the whole "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occuring" when the previous election had large demographics shifts occurring is verging on gamblers fallacy.
The objection to MRP is not "I can't believe in large demographic shifts occurring". Clearly they have. It is reflected in the change in voting intention.
What big misses did MRP make last time, in relation to the main parties?
Biggest Labour outperformance of the Tories from MRP to result (Alastair from Edinburgh's figures) / Ben Walker result figures
Bootle Ilford South Hackney South & Shoreditch Knowsley Liverpool, Walton Manchester, Gorton Harrow West Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill Denton & Reddish Birmingham, Hodge Hill
Biggest outperformance of the Tories compared to Labour
Basildon & Billericay Boston & Skegness South Swindon The Cotswolds Harwich & North Essex Westmorland & Lonsdale Castle Point Newark Clacton Thornbury & Yate
In all the above outperformances, the Tories outperformed relative to the Lib Dems (But by a lesser margin) too.
Outperformance by the LDs relative to the Tories
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross St Albans Manchester, Gorton North Norfolk Bootle Carshalton & Wallington Liverpool, Walton Witney Leeds North West Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
Outperformance by the Tories relative to the Lib Dems
Windsor Brecon and Radnorshire Wycombe Clacton East Devon North East Hampshire Maidstone and The Weald Solihull The Cotswolds Buckingham
My god the tory vs. Labour outperformance is really bad news for Labour in their "marginals".
Sounds like the 350 million in a day figure is dodgy at best...
The head of one government-linked organisation told the BBC they'd been ordered to plant 10,000 trees, but had to pay for them out of their own budget. So they planted 5,000, but reported the full amount. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49266983
It seems basically the government gave a huge number of the public seedlings and said please plant them on this day.
So if Jezza going to be instructing us all to start planting trees in our own gardens?
So, the YouGov MRP was pretty much on consensus. Good Con majority but short of landslide. That's where I am too on the majority. Mid to high 2 digits. Bought at 15 so smug city. Tempting to close out but have decided not to because I think the chance of a landslide is greater than that of a very small majority or a hung parliament. But, you know, c'mon Labour and prove me wrong. Make me wish to god I'd taken the profits. Make me look a fool, why don't you? Just need a couple of points on VI and a firming up on defence in leaverland seats. Go for it, comrades. Forget about what I think, that doesn't matter. 2 full weeks to go. This is not over.
LOL at Sky switching off an emotional Swinson to speak about sourdough bread. Tackling the big issues of the day!
Haven't been watching but is there any partiuclar reason Swinson is "emotional" over the subject of sourdough bread?
LOL no. She was emotional trying to score political points over Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. She started to well up while talking about it then Sky switched her off and started interviewing a baker who is campaigning on 'real sourdough bread' and wants to ensure the name sourdough is protected.
Ah, the Iranian woman who’s in prison in Iran? Does no-one understand the rules of international diplomacy any more?
I imagine all this talk is to fire up the base and drive turnout of the “45”.
A SLab leadership election could be just the tonic, plenty of laughs to be had contemplating the talent and charisma free zone that is the SLab MSP base.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
Looks like we're on course for a massive ConservativeBrexit Party victory.
Under PR, extremists exist in separate parties. Under FPTP they take over established mainstream ones.
Exactly right which is precisely why our FPTP system has presented with the stunning choice of Corbyn or Johnson and the best either of them can offer us is they aren't as bad as the other one.
Funny that every country in Europe has PR of some sort and I don't see any clamour anywhere to switch to the wonderful British or more acurately English system (as Scotland, Wales and NI already have PR in one form or another)
It's the same mentality, that resulted us being the only country wanting to leave the EU. The delusion that Britain is brighter and better than everyone else.
Sounds like the 350 million in a day figure is dodgy at best...
The head of one government-linked organisation told the BBC they'd been ordered to plant 10,000 trees, but had to pay for them out of their own budget. So they planted 5,000, but reported the full amount. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49266983
It seems basically the government gave a huge number of the public seedlings and said please plant them on this day.
So if Jezza going to be instructing us all to start planting trees in our own gardens?
Please don’t tell him I just cut one down.....
You will be joining me in the gulag.
Remember gulags for slags?
Now that's a gulag I'd want to be in.
God those were the days....even Gordo wasn't as mental / anti-business as the current mob.
I see that the Labour pivot to Leave has begun. Ed Miliband says that he wants to get Brexit sorted. He claims to have voted for a deal 9 times. He should have put it on a headstone.
I see that the Labour pivot to Leave has begun. Ed Miliband says that he wants to get Brexit sorted. He claims to have voted for a deal 9 times. He should have put it on a headstone.
Totally shameless. And I fear enough people will buy this BS.
I am still waiting for the Tories to begin their campaign....like last time, they appear to be leaving it very late! Did they not learn anything from 2010/2015, you attack from the moment you get in power and never let up. You don't wait until you are attacked, then react, it is too late.
e.g. they must have known Jezza would try the NHS up for sale stuff, why was Boris out on every hospital visit saying I can guarantee you, the NHS will never be part of a trade deal, etc etc etc.
I imagine all this talk is to fire up the base and drive turnout of the “45”.
A SLab leadership election could be just the tonic, plenty of laughs to be had contemplating the talent and charisma free zone that is the SLab MSP base.
Get your money on James Kelly for extra LOLZ.
It may be time for Anas.
Careful how you say that, just in case there are any Hungarians looking in.
No its not. According to the polls over 40% of voters are voting for Johnson's party and over 30% of voters are voting for Corbyn's party with no other party beating single digits except Swinson's who struggling to be in the low teens. It doesn't matter what electoral system you have with those numbers - either you will have Corbyn or Johnson as PM afterwards. If you can't stand either then either pick the lesser evil or waste your vote. Those are the candidates to choose from though.
Your argument presupposes that people vote for those parties positively, whereas FPTP encourages people to vote negatively. FPTP forces people into a binary choice because fear of the worst option/the wasted vote argument reinforces it. Given a free choice, it's highly likely support for the Brexservative Party and the Revolutionary Labour Party would plummet.
Because PR politics is so moderate right? You wouldn't see the Freedom Party in Austria or Likud in Israel or Five Star or Lega Nord in Italy enter office under PR systems would you? Oh . . .
Don’t forget that the 2015 UK election under PR would have resulted in a massive majority for a Con/UKIP coalition.
PR would not have given Con/UKIP a majority. What's your source? Projections under various systems are shown here, no majority with combined UKIP+CON. https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/publications/the-2015-general-election-report/ Furthermore, many people voting tactically under FPTP would choose to vote very differently under PR - Con and Lab and LD voters voting Green. Con and Lab voters voting Brexit, more LD voters. Look at the Scottish Parliament where Greens have succeeded because of PR. Voters can afford to vote positively rather than negatively.
My source is your source. From that document, under STV Con and UKIP would have got over 50% of the seats, and under List PR 49.5%. Under AV it says that UKIP would have got only one seat for their 13% of the vote - hardly proportional.
Blimey, Tories now favourites to win Norfolk North. I backed them a couple of weeks ago at 3/1 (annoyingly only for £15). Norman Lamb a serious loss for LibDems - but I`m now tempted at these odds to back the LibDems to hold on.
Blimey, Tories now favourites to win Norfolk North. I backed them a couple of weeks ago at 3/1 (annoyingly only for £15). Norman Lamb a serious loss for LibDems - but I`m now tempted at these odds to back the LibDems to hold on.
Looks like Labour are back to Ian Murray island in Scotland. I expect the borders will stay Tory, as will WAK, Banff and probably Moray. East Renfrewshire and Aberdeen South to be very close ? Dunno about Gordon, that one came out of nowhere last time - could have been an anti-Salmond vote.
Blimey, Tories now favourites to win Norfolk North. I backed them a couple of weeks ago at 3/1 (annoyingly only for £15). Norman Lamb a serious loss for LibDems - but I`m now tempted at these odds to back the LibDems to hold on.
Blimey... lib dem canvasser at our door - first time ever.
Meant to ask why they'd got in to bed with Welsh nationalists and how revoking was a real turn off but was on the phone with a client so just took the leaflet and went!
There is no mechanism within our Parliamentary democracy for a third party after an election to demand another party change its leader.
And no self-respecting party is going to agree to another party saying its leader must be XXX.
But a self-respecting party is entitled to say “we won’t support you under your current leadership.” Corbyn handing over to McDonnell is no improvement. McDonnell is a dangerous man. If the Lib Dems give any impression at all that they will support either of them in power they risk losing even more votes from people who cannot abide them and/or think of them as Leavers. I simply do not trust Corbyn or McDonnell with power. I don’t trust Johnson either. The Lib Dems seem to be going nowhere, even in my constituency if that poll is right. So what to do?
You're Kilburn & Hampstead, no?
Sitting MP Tulip Siddiq is pretty good. She's no Corbynista and strongly pro-Remain. She won't necessarily hold on though, if what i hear is correct. The LDs are expecting a strong performance.
You're spoilt for choice, Ms Cyclefree!
Tulip is ok. She has been very active in trying to help that poor Iranian woman locked up in prison. She rather blotted her copybook in relation to the Bangladeshi man who asked for her help and the nasty way she responded to the Channel 4 reporter. But it doesn’t matter that she was pro Remain and that she’s not a Corbynista. A vote for her is a vote for Corbyn as PM, McDonnell as Chancellor and Corbynista policies. She’s deluding herself and the voters if she thinks - or tries to pretend - otherwise. Same for all the other Labour MPS who are trying to pretend Corbyn is not their leader. Edited: and indeed all those Labour voters deluding themselves they can get Labour without Corbyn.
The only conceivable way to get Labour without Cornyn would be if the Lib Dems held the balance of power.
Blimey, Tories now favourites to win Norfolk North. I backed them a couple of weeks ago at 3/1 (annoyingly only for £15). Norman Lamb a serious loss for LibDems - but I`m now tempted at these odds to back the LibDems to hold on.
He is a serious loss to parliament in general...
Agreed, I was a big fan.
By all accounts a very good minister and, were it not for that idiot Lansley blocking him, he could have done a lot of good earlier in the coalition (and helped spare us the idiotic Health Act).
Planting 350m in one day as a one off when you've spent time preparing for that one day is very possible. All those young trees that got planted took time to develop to the point they were ready to be planted. If at the end of that day they'd thought "that was fun, lets do it again tomorrow" then that wouldn't have worked.
That's before we consider where we'd find the space for the billions and billions of trees spoken about. Ethiopia is of course 4.5 times the size of the entire United Kingdom.
We'd only need to plant 350m trees in a day six times, over twenty years, to hit the Labour target. Plenty of time to prepare for each mega planting day. Land could be a challenge, but, were we to be free of [the CAP thanks to] Brexit there is a lot of money that currently subsidizes marginal agriculture that could be used to incentivise landowners to plant trees instead. It doesn't look absurdly impossible to me.
I see that the Labour pivot to Leave has begun. Ed Miliband says that he wants to get Brexit sorted. He claims to have voted for a deal 9 times. He should have put it on a headstone.
Totally shameless. And I fear enough people will buy this BS.
I am still waiting for the Tories to begin their campaign....like last time, they appear to be leaving it very late! Did they not learn anything from 2010/2015, you attack from the moment you get in power and never let up. You don't wait until you are attacked, then react, it is too late.
e.g. they must have known Jezza would try the NHS up for sale stuff, why was Boris out on every hospital visit saying I can guarantee you, the NHS will never be part of a trade deal, etc etc etc.
Possibly because the NHS will be part of the trade deal and to say it won't is to tar the start of your government?
Looks like Labour are back to Ian Murray island in Scotland. I expect the borders will stay Tory, as will WAK, Banff and probably Moray. East Renfrewshire and Aberdeen South to be very close ? Dunno about Gordon, that one came out of nowhere last time - could have been an anti-Salmond vote.
Thanks for that, just got 6/4 with Bet Victor on Tories to win Aberdeen South. Should be odds-on.
Blimey, Tories now favourites to win Norfolk North. I backed them a couple of weeks ago at 3/1 (annoyingly only for £15). Norman Lamb a serious loss for LibDems - but I`m now tempted at these odds to back the LibDems to hold on.
He is a serious loss to parliament in general...
Agreed, I was a big fan.
By all accounts a very good minister and, were it not for that idiot Lansley blocking him, he could have done a lot of good earlier in the coalition (and helped spare us the idiotic Health Act).
There are some things he did in power that I don't think I can talk about on here that were politically very risky (could have easily been spun really negatively, but the right thing to do) and have changed a lot of people's lives for the better.
Comments
I made pretty well the same point a few days ago as Cummings is reported as making in the Telegraph yesterday - i.e that a small BXP national vote share still amounts to more than double that at the expense of the Conservatives in the minority of seats the BXP are still standing in, including all the key marginals that Johnson needs to gain.
From the Telegraph:
"Despite the Tories’ consistent lead over Labour, Mr Cummings wrote a blog that he described as a “bat signal” to warn that “Brexit is in danger”. He said: “You will see many polls in the coming days. Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.” He argued that while the Brexit Party is struggling overall, it is still polling at 10 per cent in marginal seats where the Tories and Labour are neck and neck."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/27/election-result-close-call-warns-dominic-cummings/
Yesterday, Mr Corbyn claimed he had "proof" the NHS was at risk under a post-Brexit trade deal with the US.
He says those revelations “absolutely shredded” all of Mr Johnson’s denials that the NHS wasn't on the table in trade conversations with the US.
“This election is now a fight for the survival of the NHS as a public service.”
He says you can vote Tory to “sell out the NHS” or vote Labour to save the NHS
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2019-50582197
This lie is clearly going to be repeated time and time again on the door steps in the Leave seats Labour are going to target over the next two weeks.
We aren't leaving our trading partner to solve an internal party dispute, we're doing so because the largest democratic vote to support anything ever was the vote to leave. If all 17.4 million were internal to the Tory Party then the Tory Party would get a mammoth landslide in a fortnight even without any Remainers. You're talking bollock in other words.
Land could be a challenge, but, were we to be free of [the CAP thanks to] Brexit there is a lot of money that currently subsidizes marginal agriculture that could be used to incentivise landowners to plant trees instead.
It doesn't look absurdly impossible to me.
12.6% Vote share for UKIP
not even a majority
Next week will see the lead stabilize and then from the final weekend polls through to 12/12/19 we'll see the Con lead growing again as the usual last week swing back to the government gathers pace.
We finish up roughly where we started which is Con around 10% ahead and they get a majority of between 30-40 seats as I've said all along.
Voila.
He has a deal for the transition period which is currently until 1st January 2021. That isn't the same as a long term deal with a settled relationship with the EU.
It's also why Brexit is so hard - the reality is that we haven't even started yet.
Sure we will negotiate a trade deal. Independent countries do them all the time. Don't see countries across the globe running around like headless chickens because they're negotiating deals.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50586338
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50585818
Brexit was a minority interest until the Tories cooked up a referendum on it as a way to solve their internal disputes and fear of UKIP depriving them of a majority again. 17.4m people, of whom a significant minority will now have passed on, were voting for a large variety of outcomes that didn't exist, weren't thought through, and were mis-sold, often against their own interests, on the basis of deliberate misinformation.
And I note you haven't indicated what real world job you perform.
But it doesn’t matter that she was pro Remain and that she’s not a Corbynista. A vote for her is a vote for Corbyn as PM, McDonnell as Chancellor and Corbynista policies. She’s deluding herself and the voters if she thinks - or tries to pretend - otherwise.
Same for all the other Labour MPS who are trying to pretend Corbyn is not their leader.
Edited: and indeed all those Labour voters deluding themselves they can get Labour without Corbyn.
Three quarters (77%) of those with a voting intention say they’ve made up their mind on who they’ll vote for, while just under a quarter (23%) say they may change their mind.
Those who say they’ll vote Conservative or SNP are surer of their vote than those voting Labour or Liberal Democrat. 84% of both SNP supporters and Conservative supporters say they’ve definitely decided, compared with 73% of Labour supporters and 66% of Liberal Democrat supporters.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/scotland-voting-intention-snp-pole-position-run-election
But woodland is miserable stuff anyway; it exists only because you haven't got round to clearing it yet, or for firewood and building material, or to hold animals to hunt or shoot. It doesn't even have amenity value; think how interesting the walk to the top of Helvellyn would be if it were a forest track. We'd be much better off with efficient artificial carbon sequestration and not wasting acres of useful land.
What's your source?
Projections under various systems are shown here, no majority with combined UKIP+CON.
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/publications/the-2015-general-election-report/
Furthermore, many people voting tactically under FPTP would choose to vote very differently under PR - Con and Lab and LD voters voting Green. Con and Lab voters voting Brexit, more LD voters. Look at the Scottish Parliament where Greens have succeeded because of PR. Voters can afford to vote positively rather than negatively.
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1200028306885816320?s=21
How much will a Corbyn government borrow over the course of the next Parliament, in your opinion?
How much extra government income will go so servicing debt, rather than spent on public services?
The head of one government-linked organisation told the BBC they'd been ordered to plant 10,000 trees, but had to pay for them out of their own budget. So they planted 5,000, but reported the full amount.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-49266983
It seems basically the government gave a huge number of the public seedlings and said please plant them on this day.
So if Jezza going to be instructing us all to start planting trees in our own gardens?
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1200027992421994496?s=20
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1200025371275669504
Just terrible.
Question is whether the SNP are overcooked.
I imagine all this talk is to fire up the base and drive turnout of the “45”.
Now that's a gulag I'd want to be in.
Brexit, Scottish independence, opposition to mass immigration, left-wing populism - all those political phenomena would have still occurred under PR.
It’s the same electorate with the same concerns, and they eventually work out the right route to make themselves heard.
Get your money on James Kelly for extra LOLZ.
Funny that every country in Europe has PR of some sort and I don't see any clamour anywhere to switch to the wonderful British or more acurately English system (as Scotland, Wales and NI already have PR in one form or another)
It's the same mentality, that resulted us being the only country wanting to leave the EU. The delusion that Britain is brighter and better than everyone else.
I’d say Tory seats 310-390 right now with a midpoint of 350, more risk on the downside than the upside.
Ooh
I am still waiting for the Tories to begin their campaign....like last time, they appear to be leaving it very late! Did they not learn anything from 2010/2015, you attack from the moment you get in power and never let up. You don't wait until you are attacked, then react, it is too late.
e.g. they must have known Jezza would try the NHS up for sale stuff, why was Boris out on every hospital visit saying I can guarantee you, the NHS will never be part of a trade deal, etc etc etc.
The main question they were grappling with was how to deal with their historical 5 point overstatement of the SNP.
They were talking about simply knocking 5 points off the score at the end of the process.
So whilst I don't know exactly what they've done they've absolutely been looking at the SNP score with extreme detail.
Tory -> Brexit Party
Labour -> Green
Careful how you say that, just in case there are any Hungarians looking in.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1200029994606571520?s=20
Ok, as you were.
Norman Lamb a serious loss for LibDems - but I`m now tempted at these odds to back the LibDems to hold on.
I expect the borders will stay Tory, as will WAK, Banff and probably Moray.
East Renfrewshire and Aberdeen South to be very close ?
Dunno about Gordon, that one came out of nowhere last time - could have been an anti-Salmond vote.
Meant to ask why they'd got in to bed with Welsh nationalists and how revoking was a real turn off but was on the phone with a client so just took the leaflet and went!
Damn.