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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Only USAF pilots? Is it a ZX Spectrum?
    The ZX Spectrum is the greatest computer in the history of computing.
    Correct.
  • kyf_100 said:

    <

    Look at the conversation on here this morning, if PB Tories are representative of Tories in general they really don't like Swinson. I reckon those who are going to defect to the Lib Dems already have and are therefore priced on.

    I'm not sure Pbers are a good guide to wider opinion, ever. We are all very interested and many of us are actiuvely involved. It's a shock when any of us actually change our preferences.

    Most people aren't like that at all. There is a category of floating voter which is really not going to decide till polling day - people who don't like Johnson or Corbyn or Swinson especially, are reluctant to give any of them a thumping vote of confidence, and will have a think on Dec 12 about whether and how to vote.
    I am not rubbing shoulders with political geeks, but I cannot find ANYBODY who likes Johnson. Everyone thinks he is a complete a*se (except for one friend who is a card-carrying Conservative)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    alex_ said:

    nico67 said:

    The fact is if you’re one of the 3.5 million women effected by the pension changes would you be more or less likely to vote for Labour today .

    And Labour will couch this as , if you can find billions to bail out the banks then why on earth can’t you help these women.

    I fail to see how this doesn’t help Labour, all the bleating by some Tories is just irritation at this policy.

    On the day Labour announce this the Tories will be delivering a manifesto which looks all a bit dull and puts bells and whistles on potholes . Yes they’re annoying but they’ve been allowed to get this bad because of the huge cuts to local government .

    I think (hope) it is a mistake to think that just because 3.5m women are affected by the changes, that 3.5 women are supportive of the WASPI campaign. Surely most of them will have planned properly for their retirement and may well be resentful that those who (claim they) didn't seeking recompense of this nature.

    It’s not just those effected , but will impact their husbands aswell and it’s the message it sends out to other women . We’re on your side .

    I’m not saying it’s a game changer because the Tories have a big lead but I simply can’t see any way this doesn’t help Labour.
    What it says to women under 50 is pay extra taxes and work until you are 70 so that some other women can get a state pension at 60.
    It says to women in general Labour are willing to right a wrong that effected them . The issue was how quickly the changes were made and Labour have stressed that’s why they’re offering compensation.

    I fail to see this as a vote loser. Hilariously Christopher Hope of the DT thinks this is going to damage Labour which clearly shows hes rattled !
    What wrong ?

    The wrong of receiving state pension five years earlier than men do ?

    And what is Labour's solution to this 'wrong' ?

    To take £58bn from the young.

    Why should any young or middle aged women support that ?
    Perhaps its the wrong of not being notified with plenty of time. Oh wait, they were.

    This is a policy which will have appeal to that group, and since all our parties bar the Tories are for supporting them they must think that group could be large and influential, but there's been no wrong.
    I thought many of them had little to no notice of the changes.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    alex_ said:

    nico67 said:

    The fact is if you’re one of the 3.5 million women effected by the pension changes would you be more or less likely to vote for Labour today .

    And Labour will couch this as , if you can find billions to bail out the banks then why on earth can’t you help these women.

    I fail to see how this doesn’t help Labour, all the bleating by some Tories is just irritation at this policy.

    On the day Labour announce this the Tories will be delivering a manifesto which looks all a bit dull and puts bells and whistles on potholes . Yes they’re annoying but they’ve been allowed to get this bad because of the huge cuts to local government .

    I think (hope) it is a mistake to think that just because 3.5m women are affected by the changes, that 3.5 women are supportive of the WASPI campaign. Surely most of them will have planned properly for their retirement and may well be resentful that those who (claim they) didn't seeking recompense of this nature.

    It’s not just those effected , but will impact their husbands aswell and it’s the message it sends out to other women . We’re on your side .

    I’m not saying it’s a game changer because the Tories have a big lead but I simply can’t see any way this doesn’t help Labour.
    What it says to women under 50 is pay extra taxes and work until you are 70 so that some other women can get a state pension at 60.
    It says to women in general Labour are willing to right a wrong that effected them . The issue was how quickly the changes were made and Labour have stressed that’s why they’re offering compensation.

    I fail to see this as a vote loser. Hilariously Christopher Hope of the DT thinks this is going to damage Labour which clearly shows hes rattled !
    What wrong ?

    The wrong of receiving state pension five years earlier than men do ?

    And what is Labour's solution to this 'wrong' ?

    To take £58bn from the young.

    Why should any young or middle aged women support that ?
    Perhaps its the wrong of not being notified with plenty of time. Oh wait, they were.

    This is a policy which will have appeal to that group, and since all our parties bar the Tories are for supporting them they must think that group could be large and influential, but there's been no wrong.
    I thought many of them had little to no notice of the changes.
    The courts have said otherwise.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited November 2019
    kyf_100 said:

    OllyT said:

    kyf_100 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1198545292280418304

    So gap is now 12.8 points. The squeeze really has to come pretty quickly, it's still only a few points they probably need to make up to get a bit of momentum going - but they're really running out of time.

    https://twitter.com/BlakeAnselmo/status/1198546007161810945/photo/1

    This keeps being posted too, I don't know how accurate it is.

    With 2.5 weeks left of the campaign, the Tory lead continues to widen, while the Labour average fails to break 30%? It wasn't supposed to be like this... :wink:
    Surely the other story here is the Lib Dems trending down.

    Baxtered even last night's BMG puts the Lib Dems on 25 seats while the average puts them below 20. And plenty more time to be squeezed.

    Yes there may be some tactical voting in individual constituencies that benefits the Lib Dems but they have failed to reach out to Labour voters who still blame them for the coalition years, their policy on revoke is widely seen as a mis-step and few wealthy remainers will risk lending their vote in case it lets Corbyn in?

    Surely the 1.97 on BF exchange for Lib Dems under 25.5 seats looks like value?
    If a sizeable Tory majority looks nailed on by election day then the Lib Dems will do better than expected because it will feel safe for remain Tories to cast an LD vote and in most of the South Labour will be so obviously a lost cause. I agree with SO, I think Labour have all but given up.
    A fair point. But if you're right, we should start seeing an uptick in polling for the Lib Dems. They're still trending downwards at the moment and that BMG looks like a bit of an outlier.

    Look at the conversation on here this morning, if PB Tories are representative of Tories in general they really don't like Swinson. I reckon those who are going to defect to the Lib Dems already have and are therefore priced on.
    Possibly but a lot of waverers make up their minds at the last minute. When the election was called I was undecided between Lib Dem, not voting or tactical vote for our remainer Labour MP. I think the electorate are far more volatile than they used to be
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited November 2019
    If the Tories don't go any higher, I still think it could be a Hung Parliament.

    But any more and that possibility diminishes to almost zero.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Yes imagine them having to suffer with only 40+ out of 59 seats.
  • IanB2 said:

    Possibly there isn’t anything to tell. Possibly there is, but she has decided not to tell it? Or possibly she is waiting for the ideal moment, just before the election?

    If it was me, I would would spill the beans about a week before the vote.
    If it were you, Bev, we would expect you to post the evidence here on PB first so we could all place our bets.
    Well of course, but only after I had been to the bookies first.... :D:D
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Floater said:
    "LW cannot go so far as saying vote Lib Dem because of the seeming tolerance of bigotry and criminal behaviour in Tower Hamlets Labour Party.

    We can say just make sure you vote for any party other than the Labour Party! Nothing to do with policies, everything to do with their abysmal track record."
  • TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    Possibly there isn’t anything to tell. Possibly there is, but she has decided not to tell it? Or possibly she is waiting for the ideal moment, just before the election?

    If it was me, I would would spill the beans about a week before the vote.
    But what beans? Sex tittle-tattle won't change peoples' views of BoJo; and he'll simply deny anything else, pointing out that the departmental enquiry into the award of £100k grant was 'appropriate'.
    My post is conditional on "beans to spill" actually existing.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    If the Tories don't go any higher, I still think it could be a Hung Parliament.

    But any more and that possibility diminishes to almost zero.

    LOL - can't fault you for trying
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Andy_JS said:

    Michael Gove has started using the "oven-ready" phrase. It sounds awful to me but maybe they've discovered that it works with focus groups or something.

    It grates with me too, but I think it’s memorable. And no one seems to bother to ever ask Boris about the next stage. One could say that only the starter is oven ready, the main course is still half-baked.
    It does suit the chickens who are using it, though BIN ready would be even better.
  • Floater said:

    If the Tories don't go any higher, I still think it could be a Hung Parliament.

    But any more and that possibility diminishes to almost zero.

    LOL - can't fault you for trying
    I'm literally at giving up hope now, the next week is really it for me. If there's no change I will admit defeat and go and hide in a cave somewhere
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Floater said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Only USAF pilots? Is it a ZX Spectrum?
    The ZX Spectrum is the greatest computer in the history of computing.
    Perhaps Labour can give us all one as part of their bribes err spending package

    There was a comment the other day that more or less implied "free" computers might need to be dished out alongside the "free" broadband.
  • kyf_100 said:

    OllyT said:

    kyf_100 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1198545292280418304

    So gap is now 12.8 points. The squeeze really has to come pretty quickly, it's still only a few points they probably need to make up to get a bit of momentum going - but they're really running out of time.

    https://twitter.com/BlakeAnselmo/status/1198546007161810945/photo/1

    This keeps being posted too, I don't know how accurate it is.

    With 2.5 weeks left of the campaign, the Tory lead continues to widen, while the Labour average fails to break 30%? It wasn't supposed to be like this... :wink:
    Surely the other story here is the Lib Dems trending down.

    Baxtered even last night's BMG puts the Lib Dems on 25 seats while the average puts them below 20. And plenty more time to be squeezed.

    Yes there may be some tactical voting in individual constituencies that benefits the Lib Dems but they have failed to reach out to Labour voters who still blame them for the coalition years, their policy on revoke is widely seen as a mis-step and few wealthy remainers will risk lending their vote in case it lets Corbyn in?

    Surely the 1.97 on BF exchange for Lib Dems under 25.5 seats looks like value?
    If a sizeable Tory majority looks nailed on by election day then the Lib Dems will do better than expected because it will feel safe for remain Tories to cast an LD vote and in most of the South Labour will be so obviously a lost cause. I agree with SO, I think Labour have all but given up.
    A fair point. But if you're right, we should start seeing an uptick in polling for the Lib Dems. They're still trending downwards at the moment and that BMG looks like a bit of an outlier.

    Look at the conversation on here this morning, if PB Tories are representative of Tories in general they really don't like Swinson. I reckon those who are going to defect to the Lib Dems already have and are therefore priced on.
    Of course PB Tories won't like the leaders of opposition parties.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited November 2019
    Yikes!

    Do the polling companies pick these voters up?

    If they have registered to vote, it seems reasonable to expect that they will actually turn up and vote and they are not a Tory-friendly demographic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    glw said:

    Floater said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Only USAF pilots? Is it a ZX Spectrum?
    The ZX Spectrum is the greatest computer in the history of computing.
    Perhaps Labour can give us all one as part of their bribes err spending package

    There was a comment the other day that more or less implied "free" computers might need to be dished out alongside the "free" broadband.
    Not free iPhones?
  • glw said:

    Floater said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Only USAF pilots? Is it a ZX Spectrum?
    The ZX Spectrum is the greatest computer in the history of computing.
    Perhaps Labour can give us all one as part of their bribes err spending package

    There was a comment the other day that more or less implied "free" computers might need to be dished out alongside the "free" broadband.
    Wasn’t that the plot of the Demon Headmaster?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    rkrkrk said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    humbugger said:

    Good morning all.

    With regards to Labour's new WASPI commitment I wonder if anyone on here knows:

    1. Why was this not in the manifesto? Is this just a knee jerk reaction to a QT question?
    2. Have they said how it will be paid for? £58 billion is a big number.
    3. As state pension is taxable will the payments be taxable? If so, how will they know what rate each person should have been paying?
    4. What happens to payments that should have been made to those now deceased?

    I'm sure there are loads of other questions on this but these sprung to mind instantly.

    Doing something to compensate waspi was in the manifesto, I just dont think it committed a number.

    They arent the only ones pandering to them, but it is the worst, most nakedly cynical policy of the campaign so far.
    There was no injustice. And they lost the court case. It’s unjustified whinging.
    No injustice seems a bit strong. As I understand it, the changes were accelerated in 2011, which meant some in their 50s had to wait an extra 5 years. Your earnings potential at that stage are pretty limited.

    Means testing compensation to those most adversely affected would seem to be a reasonable compromise.
    The changes in 2011 made a maximum of two years difference for people born between 6 March and 5 April 1954. I have some sympathy with those worst affected by the changes then. But don’t kid yourself that they were forced to wait five years more then, or that this group form the main part of what is being complained about.

    The main thrust of the WASPI women’s campaign is “back to 60”. For my extended view, see here:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/10/28/the-persistence-of-lack-of-memory-how-the-state-retirement-age-was-changed-and-communicated/
    Thanks for the correction - I didn't realize it was a maximum of 2 years difference due to the 2011 changes. Nevertheless, I still think providing compensation to those worst affected is the right solution to this.

    Many of those will be reliant on the state in any case, so compensating them will reduce some other area of spending significantly.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    Floater said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Only USAF pilots? Is it a ZX Spectrum?
    The ZX Spectrum is the greatest computer in the history of computing.
    Perhaps Labour can give us all one as part of their bribes err spending package

    There was a comment the other day that more or less implied "free" computers might need to be dished out alongside the "free" broadband.
    Not free iPhones?
    Obviously the people need "free" smartphones to access government services when they are on the move, and they will naturally need a "free" mobile service to go with the "free" smartphones, which will require the nationlisation of the UK mobile carriers.
  • Yikes!

    Do the polling companies pick these voters up?

    If they have registered to vote, it seems reasonable to expect that they will actually turn up and vote and they are not a Tory-friendly demographic.
    What's the majority predicted in the MRP poll, 48 or something like that? If the young actually turn out to vote, you can see in theory how that majority can shrink.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    If the Tories don't go any higher, I still think it could be a Hung Parliament.

    But any more and that possibility diminishes to almost zero.

    LOL - can't fault you for trying
    I'm literally at giving up hope now, the next week is really it for me. If there's no change I will admit defeat and go and hide in a cave somewhere
    I have been watching your efforts with amusement.

    What really makes me laugh is how you keep moving the bar when your last "tipping point" for Labour turns out to be wrong.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    Possibly there isn’t anything to tell. Possibly there is, but she has decided not to tell it? Or possibly she is waiting for the ideal moment, just before the election?

    If it was me, I would would spill the beans about a week before the vote.
    But what beans? Sex tittle-tattle won't change peoples' views of BoJo; and he'll simply deny anything else, pointing out that the departmental enquiry into the award of £100k grant was 'appropriate'.
    My post is conditional on "beans to spill" actually existing.
    Your post is also contingent on it being you involved - and we know it wouldn't be. You've got far better taste!
  • What time is Boris launching his manifesto today

    I wonder if he shall stand on a podium and crack a bottle of champers against it? :D
  • TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    Possibly there isn’t anything to tell. Possibly there is, but she has decided not to tell it? Or possibly she is waiting for the ideal moment, just before the election?

    If it was me, I would would spill the beans about a week before the vote.
    But what beans? Sex tittle-tattle won't change peoples' views of BoJo; and he'll simply deny anything else, pointing out that the departmental enquiry into the award of £100k grant was 'appropriate'.
    My post is conditional on "beans to spill" actually existing.
    Your post is also contingent on it being you involved - and we know it wouldn't be. You've got far better taste!
    Thank you!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Mrs C, the Falkland Islanders wish to be British.

    Denuding them of defence is an abdication of duty, as well as throwing away the means to defend the principle that free people have a right to determine their own destiny.

    They should apply the principle to Scotland
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    humbugger said:

    Good morning all.

    With regards to Labour's new WASPI commitment I wonder if anyone on here knows:

    1. Why was this not in the manifesto? Is this just a knee jerk reaction to a QT question?
    2. Have they said how it will be paid for? £58 billion is a big number.
    3. As state pension is taxable will the payments be taxable? If so, how will they know what rate each person should have been paying?
    4. What happens to payments that should have been made to those now deceased?

    I'm sure there are loads of other questions on this but these sprung to mind instantly.

    Doing something to compensate waspi was in the manifesto, I just dont think it committed a number.

    They arent the only ones pandering to them, but it is the worst, most nakedly cynical policy of the campaign so far.
    There was no injustice. And they lost the court case. It’s unjustified whinging.
    No injustice seems a bit strong. As I understand it, the changes were accelerated in 2011, which meant some in their 50s had to wait an extra 5 years. Your earnings potential at that stage are pretty limited.

    Means testing compensation to those most adversely affected would seem to be a reasonable compromise.
    The changes in 2011 made a maximum of two years difference for people born between 6 March and 5 April 1954. I have some sympathy with those worst affected by the changes then. But don’t kid yourself that they were forced to wait five years more then, or that this group form the main part of what is being complained about.

    The main thrust of the WASPI women’s campaign is “back to 60”. For my extended view, see here:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/10/28/the-persistence-of-lack-of-memory-how-the-state-retirement-age-was-changed-and-communicated/
    Thanks for the correction - I didn't realize it was a maximum of 2 years difference due to the 2011 changes. Nevertheless, I still think providing compensation to those worst affected is the right solution to this.

    Many of those will be reliant on the state in any case, so compensating them will reduce some other area of spending significantly.

    Evidence please

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    alex_ said:

    nico67 said:

    The fact is if you’re one of the 3.5 million women effected by the pension changes would you be more or less likely to vote for Labour today .

    And Labour will couch this as , if you can find billions to bail out the banks then why on earth can’t you help these women.

    I fail to see how this doesn’t help Labour, all the bleating by some Tories is just irritation at this policy.

    On the day Labour announce this the Tories will be delivering a manifesto which looks all a bit dull and puts bells and whistles on potholes . Yes they’re annoying but they’ve been allowed to get this bad because of the huge cuts to local government .

    I think (hope) it is a mistake to think that just because 3.5m women are affected by the changes, that 3.5 women are supportive of the WASPI campaign. Surely most of them will have planned properly for their retirement and may well be resentful that those who (claim they) didn't seeking recompense of this nature.

    It’s not just those effected , but will impact their husbands aswell and it’s the message it sends out to other women . We’re on your side .

    I’m not saying it’s a game changer because the Tories have a big lead but I simply can’t see any way this doesn’t help Labour.
    What it says to women under 50 is pay extra taxes and work until you are 70 so that some other women can get a state pension at 60.
    It says to women in general Labour are willing to right a wrong that effected them . The issue was how quickly the changes were made and Labour have stressed that’s why they’re offering compensation.

    I fail to see this as a vote loser. Hilariously Christopher Hope of the DT thinks this is going to damage Labour which clearly shows hes rattled !
    What wrong ?

    The wrong of receiving state pension five years earlier than men do ?

    And what is Labour's solution to this 'wrong' ?

    To take £58bn from the young.

    Why should any young or middle aged women support that ?
    Perhaps its the wrong of not being notified with plenty of time. Oh wait, they were.

    This is a policy which will have appeal to that group, and since all our parties bar the Tories are for supporting them they must think that group could be large and influential, but there's been no wrong.
    I thought many of them had little to no notice of the changes.
    Nope.
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    If the Tories don't go any higher, I still think it could be a Hung Parliament.

    But any more and that possibility diminishes to almost zero.

    LOL - can't fault you for trying
    I'm literally at giving up hope now, the next week is really it for me. If there's no change I will admit defeat and go and hide in a cave somewhere
    I have been watching your efforts with amusement.

    What really makes me laugh is how you keep moving the bar when your last "tipping point" for Labour turns out to be wrong.
    In all honesty I didn't know when the Tory manifesto was being released, I think I said when the manifestos are out and if there is no change then I will give up.

    Labour is out and no change, the Tory one is out today so if no change this week then I will stick with my original idea and give up.

    Don't get me wrong, I will remain hopeful - but it's not looking good.
  • Yikes!

    Do the polling companies pick these voters up?

    If they have registered to vote, it seems reasonable to expect that they will actually turn up and vote and they are not a Tory-friendly demographic.
    What's the majority predicted in the MRP poll, 48 or something like that? If the young actually turn out to vote, you can see in theory how that majority can shrink.
    We can always hope :+1:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    malcolmg said:

    Mrs C, the Falkland Islanders wish to be British.

    Denuding them of defence is an abdication of duty, as well as throwing away the means to defend the principle that free people have a right to determine their own destiny.

    They should apply the principle to Scotland
    They did - you chose to stay.

    Remember now?
  • Anyway - lots to do!

    Later peeps!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kyf_100 said:

    OllyT said:

    kyf_100 said:

    BluerBlue said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1198545292280418304

    So gap is now 12.8 points. The squeeze really has to come pretty quickly, it's still only a few points they probably need to make up to get a bit of momentum going - but they're really running out of time.

    https://twitter.com/BlakeAnselmo/status/1198546007161810945/photo/1

    This keeps being posted too, I don't know how accurate it is.

    With 2.5 weeks left of the campaign, the Tory lead continues to widen, while the Labour average fails to break 30%? It wasn't supposed to be like this... :wink:
    Surely the other story here is the Lib Dems trending down.

    Baxtered even last night's BMG puts the Lib Dems on 25 seats while the average puts them below 20. And plenty more time to be squeezed.

    Yes there may be some tactical voting in individual constituencies that benefits the Lib Dems but they have failed to reach out to Labour voters who still blame them for the coalition years, their policy on revoke is widely seen as a mis-step and few wealthy remainers will risk lending their vote in case it lets Corbyn in?

    Surely the 1.97 on BF exchange for Lib Dems under 25.5 seats looks like value?
    If a sizeable Tory majority looks nailed on by election day then the Lib Dems will do better than expected because it will feel safe for remain Tories to cast an LD vote and in most of the South Labour will be so obviously a lost cause. I agree with SO, I think Labour have all but given up.
    A fair point. But if you're right, we should start seeing an uptick in polling for the Lib Dems. They're still trending downwards at the moment and that BMG looks like a bit of an outlier.

    Look at the conversation on here this morning, if PB Tories are representative of Tories in general they really don't like Swinson. I reckon those who are going to defect to the Lib Dems already have and are therefore priced on.
    Of course PB Tories won't like the leaders of opposition parties.
    My point was that those who were going to defect would have defected already. I don't think there is a very big pool of Conservative voters to fish in.

    How many PB Tories here have seen the Lib Dem light? Exactly.

    There is some churn between Lib dem and Labour but I would not expect much churn between Lib Dem and Conservative beyond what has already been observed. Most people who have stuck with the Tories this far just don't like the cut of Swinson's jib.
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    If the Tories don't go any higher, I still think it could be a Hung Parliament.

    But any more and that possibility diminishes to almost zero.

    LOL - can't fault you for trying
    I'm literally at giving up hope now, the next week is really it for me. If there's no change I will admit defeat and go and hide in a cave somewhere
    I have been watching your efforts with amusement.

    What really makes me laugh is how you keep moving the bar when your last "tipping point" for Labour turns out to be wrong.
    People who really care about politics can be amusing in how nervous they are, but also how much they can dare to dream. Not sure if it can still be read but there was a constituency early on the night in 2005 that swung disproportionately to the Tories and had a lot of the then flying high Labour posters scared, and then in the doldrums Tory posters very excited.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    kinabalu said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I chatted to a bunch of liberal friends recently, all of whom plan to vote lib dem/anti Tory. Was very surprised to hear how much they disliked Swinson, but when pressed they couldn't identify why. Wasn't stopping them voting lib dem though.

    This is not a comment about your friends, or a blanket allegation against people who dislike Jo Swinson, but I do sense, no I more than sense I know, that there is a gender factor in play here. If one looks at some of the words used to describe her, "shrill", "girl guide", "mumsnet" etc, one can see this clearly. Indeed it is closer to a fact than merely my opinion. For example, it cannot be rebutted by individuals who dislike Swinson saying that for them it has nothing to do with her being female. Nor by comments along the lines of "just because she's a woman, it doesn't mean that criticizing her is sexist." The first of those could be true or false but is not helpful since self-reported misogyny is close to zero. And the second is just obviously true but is not relevant.

    What do I think of Jo Swinson? I suppose I should disclose this for the sake of completeness and transparency.

    Not keen.
    Yes, I couldn't help but wonder if it was a gender thing also (the friends were a mixed group of men and women). I suspect also that JS will improve in interviews/media appearances with practice and will get to be more liked.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited November 2019
    Struggling to understand why Labour are so desperate to parachute in a London kebab restaurant owner, with flaky political allegiance.
  • kyf_100 said:


    My point was that those who were going to defect would have defected already. I don't think there is a very big pool of Conservative voters to fish in.

    How many PB Tories here have seen the Lib Dem light? Exactly.

    There is some churn between Lib dem and Labour but I would not expect much churn between Lib Dem and Conservative beyond what has already been observed. Most people who have stuck with the Tories this far just don't like the cut of Swinson's jib.

    The majority of the Lib Dem vote is from Labour switchers, who are probably more inclined to vote Labour than the Lib Dems who have been there since 2017.

    If the LD trajectory continues downwards - which it seems to be - and the Remain vote comes around Labour (which it slowly seems to be, do they have over half yet? 2017 they had 60% I recall) then that's good maybe for a couple of points on the Labour side.

    I keep thinking the Tory ceiling has been met and yet they keep rising, so I really have no ability to predict - but I can't think the Tories will poll much higher than they are now.
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50536205

    Interesting decision but I can't help think it's a bit dishonest. They've surely seen the polls, it just seems like a convenient excuse
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50536205

    Interesting decision but I can't help think it's a bit dishonest. They've surely seen the polls, it just seems like a convenient excuse

    That is a pretty awful headline for them. The National Grid is a trusted name.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Alistair said:

    Same chin stroking pundits were saying the SNP focus on Brexit in 2017 pushed people to the Conservatives.

    This is like a Good For Yes parody.
    Has anyone considered the possibility the SCons could achieve a net gain of seats?

    On a very good night they could end up with 16 or 17 seats.
    Dream Dream Dream , Scottish Tory surge KLAXON
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    kyf_100 said:

    I think it will come down to how many remainers feel it's safe to make a statement about Brexit by voting LD as they did in the Euros when nothing else was at stake.

    Labour remainers will feel safe to do so if Labour looks like a lost cause. Tory remainers will feel safe to do so if they think Johnson is home and dry. The best scenario for the LDs going into polling day is a unassailable Tory lead, the worst is a rapidly tightening race between the duopoly.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Um...you do know the Americans are on our side, right? Even if Trump is under Russian control, he is hardly likely to launch F22s at Northwood.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Floater said:

    rkrkrk said:



    Thanks for the correction - I didn't realize it was a maximum of 2 years difference due to the 2011 changes. Nevertheless, I still think providing compensation to those worst affected is the right solution to this.

    Many of those will be reliant on the state in any case, so compensating them will reduce some other area of spending significantly.

    Evidence please

    How much depends how you define worst affected.
    But if we take it to be people without significant savings, then giving them say 16k, means they are now no longer eligible for/are entitled to less housing benefit, pension credit, council tax support etc.
  • viewcode said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Um...you do know the Americans are on our side, right? Even if Trump is under Russian control, he is hardly likely to launch F22s at Northwood.
    Is this entirely beyond dispute?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    matt said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    alex_ said:

    nico67 said:

    The fact is if you’re one of the 3.5 million women effected by the pension changes would you be more or less likely to vote for Labour today .

    And Labour will couch this as , if you can find billions to bail out the banks then why on earth can’t you help these women.

    I fail to see how this doesn’t help Labour, all the bleating by some Tories is just irritation at this policy.

    On the day Labour announce this the Tories will be delivering a manifesto which looks all a bit dull and puts bells and whistles on potholes . Yes they’re annoying but they’ve been allowed to get this bad because of the huge cuts to local government .

    SNIP
    It’s not just those effected , but will impact their husbands aswell and it’s the message it sends out to other women . We’re on your side .

    I’m not saying it’s a game changer because the Tories have a big lead but I simply can’t see any way this doesn’t help Labour.
    What it says to women under 50 is pay extra taxes and work until you are 70 so that some other women can get a state pension at 60.
    It says to women in general Labour are willing to right a wrong that effected them . The issue was how quickly the changes were made and Labour have stressed that’s why they’re offering compensation.

    I fail to see this as a vote loser. Hilariously Christopher Hope of the DT thinks this is going to damage Labour which clearly shows hes rattled !
    What wrong ?

    The wrong of receiving state pension five years earlier than men do ?

    And what is Labour's solution to this 'wrong' ?

    To take £58bn from the young.

    Why should any young or middle aged women support that ?
    Perhaps its the wrong of not being notified with plenty of time. Oh wait, they were.

    This is a policy which will have appeal to that group, and since all our parties bar the Tories are for supporting them they must think that group could be large and influential, but there's been no wrong.
    I thought many of them had little to no notice of the changes.
    The courts have said otherwise.
    Must say have not paid a lot of attention, I got stiffed out of a years pension for myself and my wife so I have already been robbed of circa £16K. Last thing I need is to pay even more than the punitive tax I pay at present to give out more freebies for votes.
  • Floater said:

    malcolmg said:

    Mrs C, the Falkland Islanders wish to be British.

    Denuding them of defence is an abdication of duty, as well as throwing away the means to defend the principle that free people have a right to determine their own destiny.

    They should apply the principle to Scotland
    They did - you chose to stay.

    Remember now?
    In the EU?

    I remember now.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Artist said:

    Struggling to understand why Labour are so desperate to parachute in a London kebab restaurant owner, with flaky political allegiance.
    I was told in here, he is a great candidate for Labour.
  • I rarely bothered about politics and have never voted. However, in the last decade, I have seen a sea change in people's quality of life. As a senior Health care professional, I see AE departments virtually gridlocked and in winter, in a near state of collapse. Hospitals beds reduced and many hospitals have been 'modified' or primed, for future Privatisation. Many departments and Emergency services have been closed down, forcing the sick and their carers take 50-70 mile round trips, to see a hospital doctor. People are now waiting years to see a Specialist and weeks to see a Gp. Something rarely seen in the Western world. Cancer detection and survival rates are the lowest in the Western world. Death rates, among the elderly, has shot up and no one has been able to fathom why.
    Child poverty and homelessness rates has gone through the roof. Many schools have cut opening hours to 4 days, to remain afloat. Parents bitterly complain that the toilets stink, as schools cannot afford cleaners. The rest of the public services, such as Police, are in a similar situation . This is in the 5th largest economy in the world. I don't think there is a justification for all this, except that the Tories have some sort of vendetta, against money spent to improve the quality of life of the common man.
    The big issue, camouflaging all of the above is Brexit. Sort of, if you can't have bread, eat cake.
    Despite all this, when I speak to my colleagues and friends, about alternatives, there seems to be despondency. The words I hear are, Corbyn is a communist, he hates our way of life, he's a terrorist sympathiser and is anti Brexit. Even the UK's worst enemy or terrorists, would not be able to cause so much misery to the masses, that the Tories have inflicted in 9 years. Through homelessness, child poverty, rising death rates in the elderly and collapsing public services. We don't need an external enemy to cause so much suffering.
    I personally don't support any party and never ever voted before. However, in my heart I feel, that unless your a millionaire or a deluded fool, then the Tories are a curse to this nation and it's noble people.
    I can compare the voter in 2019 to a battered wife. She has been beaten, bruised and abused for nine years. After enduring years of abuse, she now has been shown a ray of hope, Brexit. As abusers are experts in emotional blackmail . She has been promised that Brexit will solve all her problems and will bring happiness and sunshine into her life. She looks at alternatives outside, such as Corbyn. Through the media, she has been warned that it may be the proverbial frying pan into the fire situation. So does she go back, to being punched, kicked and abused for the next 5-10 years. Or take the 'leap of faith' and walks away?


  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Floater said:

    malcolmg said:

    Mrs C, the Falkland Islanders wish to be British.

    Denuding them of defence is an abdication of duty, as well as throwing away the means to defend the principle that free people have a right to determine their own destiny.

    They should apply the principle to Scotland
    They did - you chose to stay.

    Remember now?
    I certainly did not and many of the morons who believed the lies about bribes did will be unlikely to do so again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Yikes!

    Do the polling companies pick these voters up?

    If they have registered to vote, it seems reasonable to expect that they will actually turn up and vote and they are not a Tory-friendly demographic.
    What's the majority predicted in the MRP poll, 48 or something like that? If the young actually turn out to vote, you can see in theory how that majority can shrink.
    Compared with recent national VI polls, the MRP (noting that it's not YouGov's MRP but someone else's first try) is actually relatively encouraging. Although the LibDems are struggling to gain national traction, they seem to be doing well enough in some southern remain seats to give the Tories a run for their money - and with a few more weeks and some tactical voting there is there at least a path to avoiding a Tory landslide.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    Yikes!

    Do the polling companies pick these voters up?

    If they have registered to vote, it seems reasonable to expect that they will actually turn up and vote and they are not a Tory-friendly demographic.
    What's the majority predicted in the MRP poll, 48 or something like that? If the young actually turn out to vote, you can see in theory how that majority can shrink.
    IF IF IF aunt/ balls/ uncle and so on and so forth.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    drferns27 said:

    I rarely bothered about politics and have never voted. However, in the last decade, I have seen a sea change in people's quality of life. An. Many departments and Emergency services have been closed down, forcing the sick and their carers take 50-70 mile round trips, to see a hospital doctor. People are now waiting years to see a Specialist and weeks to see a Gp. Something rarely seen in the Western world. Cancer detection and survival rates are the lowest in the Western world. Death rates, among the elderly, has shot up and no one has been able to fathom why.
    Child poverty and homelessness rates has gone through the roof. Many schools have cut opening hours to 4 days, to remain afloat. Parents bitterly complain that the toilets stink, as schools cannot afford cleaners. The rest of the public services, such as Police, are in a similar situation . This is in the 5th largest economy in the world. I don't think there is a justification for all this, except that the Tories have some sort of vendetta, against money spent to improve the quality of life of the common man.
    The big issue, camouflaging all of the above is Brexit. Sort of, if you can't have bread, eat cake.
    Despite all this, when I speak to my colleagues and friends, about alternatives, there seems to be despondency. The words I hear are, Corbyn is a communist, he hates our way of life, he's a terrorist sympathiser and is anti Brexit. Even the UK's worst enemy or terrorists, would not be able to cause so much misery to the masses, that the Tories have inflicted in 9 years. Through homelessness, child poverty, rising death rates in the elderly and collapsing public services. We don't need an external enemy to cause so much suffering.
    I personally don't support any party and never ever voted before. However, in my heart I feel, that unless your a millionaire or a deluded fool, then the Tories are a curse to this nation and it's noble people.
    I can compare the voter in 2019 to a battered wife. She has been beaten, bruised and abused for nine years. After enduring years of abuse, she now has been shown a ray of hope, Brexit. As abusers are experts in emotional blackmail . She has been promised that Brexit will solve all her problems and will bring happiness and sunshine into her life. She looks at alternatives outside, such as Corbyn. Through the media, she has been warned that it may be the proverbial frying pan into the fire situation. So does she go back, to being punched, kicked and abused for the next 5-10 years. Or take the 'leap of faith' and walks away?


    Welcome. Although if you're not bothered about politics and have never voted, and don't display any interest in betting within your post, it's not clear why you have come here.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    viewcode said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Um...you do know the Americans are on our side, right? Even if Trump is under Russian control, he is hardly likely to launch F22s at Northwood.
    Is this entirely beyond dispute?
    (Makes strangulated noncommittal noise approximately equivalent to that bit in "Anchorman" where they put the question mark in the teleprompter)
  • viewcode said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Um...you do know the Americans are on our side, right? Even if Trump is under Russian control, he is hardly likely to launch F22s at Northwood.
    Is this entirely beyond dispute?
    Absolutely. The F22 is primarily a fighter and Northwood is a hardened target. He’d send bombers for it.

  • IanB2 said:

    drferns27 said:

    I rarely bothered about politics and have never voted. However, in the last decade, I have seen a sea change in people's quality of life. An. Many departments and Emergency services have been closed down, forcing the sick and their carers take 50-70 mile round trips, to see a hospital doctor. People are now waiting years to see a Specialist and weeks to see a Gp. Something rarely seen in the Western world. Cancer detection and survival rates are the lowest in the Western world. Death rates, among the elderly, has shot up and no one has been able to fathom why.
    Child poverty and homelessness rates has gone through the roof. Many schools have cut opening hours to 4 days, to remain afloat. Parents bitterly complain that the toilets stink, as schools cannot afford cleaners. The rest of the public services, such as Police, are in a similar situation . This is in the 5th largest economy in the world. I don't think there is a justification for all this, except that the Tories have some sort of vendetta, against money spent to improve the quality of life of the common man.
    The big issue, camouflaging all of the above is Brexit. Sort of, if you can't have bread, eat cake.
    Despite all this, when I speak to my colleagues and friends, about alternatives, there seems to be despondency. The words I hear are, Corbyn is a communist, he hates our way of life, he's a terrorist sympathiser and is anti Brexit. Even the UK's worst enemy or terrorists, would not be able to cause so much misery to the masses, that the Tories have inflicted in 9 years. Through homelessness, child poverty, rising death rates in the elderly and collapsing public services. We don't need an external enemy to cause so much suffering.
    I personally don't support any party and never ever voted before. However, in my heart I feel, that unless your a millionaire or a deluded fool, then the Tories are a curse to this nation and it's noble people.
    I can compare the voter in 2019 to a battered wife. She has been beaten, bruised and abused for nine years. After enduring years of abuse, she now has been shown a ray of hope, Brexit. As abusers are experts in emotional blackmail . She has been promised that Brexit will solve all her problems and will bring happiness and sunshine into her life. She looks at alternatives outside, such as Corbyn. Through the media, she has been warned that it may be the proverbial frying pan into the fire situation. So does she go back, to being punched, kicked and abused for the next 5-10 years. Or take the 'leap of faith' and walks away?


    Welcome. Although if you're not bothered about politics and have never voted, and don't display any interest in betting within your post, it's not clear why you have come here.
    50 cents very well spent.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    drferns27 said:

    I rarely bothered about politics and have never voted. However, in the last decade, I have seen a sea change in people's quality of life. As a senior Health care professional, I see AE departments virtually gridlocked and in winter, in a near state of collapse. Hospitals beds reduced and many hospitals have been 'modified' or primed, for future Privatisation. Many departments and Emergency services have been closed down, forcing the sick and their carers take 50-70 mile round trips, to see a hospital doctor. People are now waiting years to see a Specialist and weeks to see a Gp. Something rarely seen in the Western world. Cancer detection and survival rates are the lowest in the Western world. Death rates, among the elderly, has shot up and no one has been able to fathom why.
    Child poverty and homelessness rates has gone through the roof. Many schools have cut opening hours to 4 days, to remain afloat. Parents bitterly complain that the toilets stink, as schools cannot afford cleaners. The rest of the public services, such as Police, are in a similar situation . This is in the 5th largest economy in the world. I don't think there is a justification for all this, except that the Tories have some sort of vendetta, against money spent to improve the quality of life of the common man.
    The big issue, camouflaging all of the above is Brexit. Sort of, if you can't have bread, eat cake.
    Despite all this, when I speak to my colleagues and friends, about alternatives, there seems to be despondency. The words I hear are, Corbyn is a communist, he hates our way of life, he's a terrorist sympathiser and is anti Brexit. Even the UK's worst enemy or terrorists, would not be able to cause so much misery to the masses, that the Tories have inflicted in 9 years. Through homelessness, child poverty, rising death rates in the elderly and collapsing public services. We don't need an external enemy to cause so much suffering.
    I personally don't support any party and never ever voted before. However, in my heart I feel, that unless your a millionaire or a deluded fool, then the Tories are a curse to this nation and it's noble people.
    I can compare the voter in 2019 to a battered wife. She has been beaten, bruised and abused for nine years. After enduring years of abuse, she now has been shown a ray of hope, Brexit. As abusers are experts in emotional blackmail . She has been promised that Brexit will solve all her problems and will bring happiness and sunshine into her life. She looks at alternatives outside, such as Corbyn. Through the media, she has been warned that it may be the proverbial frying pan into the fire situation. So does she go back, to being punched, kicked and abused for the next 5-10 years. Or take the 'leap of faith' and walks away?


    Unfortunately the other choice is just a cheek of the same arse. Both are equally garbage.
  • rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I chatted to a bunch of liberal friends recently, all of whom plan to vote lib dem/anti Tory. Was very surprised to hear how much they disliked Swinson, but when pressed they couldn't identify why. Wasn't stopping them voting lib dem though.

    This is not a comment about your friends, or a blanket allegation against people who dislike Jo Swinson, but I do sense, no I more than sense I know, that there is a gender factor in play here. If one looks at some of the words used to describe her, "shrill", "girl guide", "mumsnet" etc, one can see this clearly. Indeed it is closer to a fact than merely my opinion. For example, it cannot be rebutted by individuals who dislike Swinson saying that for them it has nothing to do with her being female. Nor by comments along the lines of "just because she's a woman, it doesn't mean that criticizing her is sexist." The first of those could be true or false but is not helpful since self-reported misogyny is close to zero. And the second is just obviously true but is not relevant.

    What do I think of Jo Swinson? I suppose I should disclose this for the sake of completeness and transparency.

    Not keen.
    Yes, I couldn't help but wonder if it was a gender thing also (the friends were a mixed group of men and women). I suspect also that JS will improve in interviews/media appearances with practice and will get to be more liked.
    There's not much to dislike, is there? I mean, School Ma'am, Girl Guide, Shrill etc aren't exactly poisonous.

    Compare with for example with: Liar, Misogynist, Charlatan etc.....

    Or, Anti-Semitic Trot.

    Not quite in the same league, is she? And there's actually a bit more substance in the labels commonly attached to the Leaders of our two Great Parties.
  • kle4 said:

    As long as we can defend our own shores. We should not be fighting wars abroad.
    There might be benefits to at least appearing to have the potential to take action if we wanted though.

    Frankly with the Tories also splurging the cash I'm surprised that the military would not get a significant boost, and whatever the top brass want they'll face direction to boost numbers.

    Isn't it like the US Congress supposedly approving massive tank building programmes despite the army saying they don't need more tanks? In that example because it makes jobs.
    I do not think the EU, Greenland, Canada or the USA are likely to invade us. Other assets far, far away (like the Falklands).... well, we are no longer a world power and we are busy readying ourselves to become a pawn between powerblocs. Let them be the policemen of the world, we have given that up.
    The EU recently held a joint miltary exercise where they invaded the UK. Disgraceful that our then Government allowed it really.
    Citation needed.
    not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Joint_Warrior

    because they do landings and COIN work but its fairly regular.

    On that note, I'd forgotten our recent joint dealings with France, tbh

    Anyway, every summer, NATO 'practice' invading Norway, Sweden and other Baltic states.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    viewcode said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Um...you do know the Americans are on our side, right? Even if Trump is under Russian control, he is hardly likely to launch F22s at Northwood.
    Is this entirely beyond dispute?
    Absolutely. The F22 is primarily a fighter and Northwood is a hardened target. He’d send bombers for it.

    Arse, you're right. Pause. Thinks for a minute. B2s?
  • viewcode said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Um...you do know the Americans are on our side, right? Even if Trump is under Russian control, he is hardly likely to launch F22s at Northwood.
    Is this entirely beyond dispute?
    Absolutely. The F22 is primarily a fighter and Northwood is a hardened target. He’d send bombers for it.

    Thanks. I often drive through the area. I'll keep my eyes open.
  • drferns27 said:

    I rarely bothered about politics and have never voted. However, in the last decade, I have seen a sea change in people's quality of life. As a senior Health care professional, I see AE departments virtually gridlocked and in winter, in a near state of collapse. Hospitals beds reduced and many hospitals have been 'modified' or primed, for future Privatisation. Many departments and Emergency services have been closed down, forcing the sick and their carers take 50-70 mile round trips, to see a hospital doctor. People are now waiting years to see a Specialist and weeks to see a Gp. Something rarely seen in the Western world. Cancer detection and survival rates are the lowest in the Western world. Death rates, among the elderly, has shot up and no one has been able to fathom why.
    Child poverty and homelessness rates has gone through the roof. Many schools have cut opening hours to 4 days, to remain afloat. Parents bitterly complain that the toilets stink, as schools cannot afford cleaners. The rest of the public services, such as Police, are in a similar situation . This is in the 5th largest economy in the world. I don't think there is a justification for all this, except that the Tories have some sort of vendetta, against money spent to improve the quality of life of the common man.
    The big issue, camouflaging all of the above is Brexit. Sort of, if you can't have bread, eat cake.
    Despite all this, when I speak to my colleagues and friends, about alternatives, there seems to be despondency. The words I hear are, Corbyn is a communist, he hates our way of life, he's a terrorist sympathiser and is anti Brexit. Even the UK's worst enemy or terrorists, would not be able to cause so much misery to the masses, that the Tories have inflicted in 9 years. Through homelessness, child poverty, rising death rates in the elderly and collapsing public services. We don't need an external enemy to cause so much suffering.
    I personally don't support any party and never ever voted before. However, in my heart I feel, that unless your a millionaire or a deluded fool, then the Tories are a curse to this nation and it's noble people.
    I can compare the voter in 2019 to a battered wife. She has been beaten, bruised and abused for nine years. After enduring years of abuse, she now has been shown a ray of hope, Brexit. As abusers are experts in emotional blackmail . She has been promised that Brexit will solve all her problems and will bring happiness and sunshine into her life. She looks at alternatives outside, such as Corbyn. Through the media, she has been warned that it may be the proverbial frying pan into the fire situation. So does she go back, to being punched, kicked and abused for the next 5-10 years. Or take the 'leap of faith' and walks away?


    "Through homelessness, child poverty, rising death rates in the elderly and collapsing public services. "

    Four assertions none are true.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Andy_JS said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Only USAF pilots? Is it a ZX Spectrum?
    The ZX Spectrum is the greatest computer in the history of computing.
    I've still got mine!

    Jetpac was the greatest game ever. And the only one I was any good at.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    lol "We love Boris" picture on the back of the tory manifesto.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019

    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I chatted to a bunch of liberal friends recently, all of whom plan to vote lib dem/anti Tory. Was very surprised to hear how much they disliked Swinson, but when pressed they couldn't identify why. Wasn't stopping them voting lib dem though.

    This is not a comment about your friends, or a blanket allegation against people who dislike Jo Swinson, but I do sense, no I more than sense I know, that there is a gender factor in play here. If one looks at some of the words used to describe her, "shrill", "girl guide", "mumsnet" etc, one can see this clearly. Indeed it is closer to a fact than merely my opinion. For example, it cannot be rebutted by individuals who dislike Swinson saying that for them it has nothing to do with her being female. Nor by comments along the lines of "just because she's a woman, it doesn't mean that criticizing her is sexist." The first of those could be true or false but is not helpful since self-reported misogyny is close to zero. And the second is just obviously true but is not relevant.

    What do I think of Jo Swinson? I suppose I should disclose this for the sake of completeness and transparency.

    Not keen.
    Yes, I couldn't help but wonder if it was a gender thing also (the friends were a mixed group of men and women). I suspect also that JS will improve in interviews/media appearances with practice and will get to be more liked.
    There's not much to dislike, is there? I mean, School Ma'am, Girl Guide, Shrill etc aren't exactly poisonous.

    Compare with for example with: Liar, Misogynist, Charlatan etc.....

    Or, Anti-Semitic Trot.

    Not quite in the same league, is she? And there's actually a bit more substance in the labels commonly attached to the Leaders of our two Great Parties.
    Tories are Liverpool.
    Labour are Tottenham Hotspur

    Lib Dems are Altrincham Stanley
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    drferns27 said:

    I rarely bothered about politics and have never voted. However, in the last decade, I have seen a sea change in people's quality of life. As a senior Health care professional, I see AE departments virtually gridlocked and in winter, in a near state of collapse. Hospitals beds reduced and many hospitals have been 'modified' or primed, for future Privatisation. Many departments and Emergency services have been closed down, forcing the sick and their carers take 50-70 mile round trips, to see a hospital doctor. People are now waiting years to see a Specialist and weeks to see a Gp. Something rarely seen in the Western world. Cancer detection and survival rates are the lowest in the Western world. Death rates, among the elderly, has shot up and no one has been able to fathom why.
    Child poverty and homelessness rates has gone through the roof. Many schools have cut opening hours to 4 days, to remain afloat. Parents bitterly complain that the toilets stink, as schools cannot afford cleaners. The rest of the public services, such as Police, are in a similar situation . This is in the 5th largest economy in the world. I don't think there is a justification for all this, except that the Tories have some sort of vendetta, against money spent to improve the quality of life of the common man.
    The big issue, camouflaging all of the above is Brexit. Sort of, if you can't have bread, eat cake.
    Despite all this, when I speak to my colleagues and friends, about alternatives, there seems to be despondency. The words I hear are, Corbyn is a communist, he hates our way of life, he's a terrorist sympathiser and is anti Brexit. Even the UK's worst enemy or terrorists, would not be able to cause so much misery to the masses, that the Tories have inflicted in 9 years. Through homelessness, child poverty, rising death rates in the elderly and collapsing public services. We don't need an external enemy to cause so much suffering.
    I personally don't support any party and never ever voted before. However, in my heart I feel, that unless your a millionaire or a deluded fool, then the Tories are a curse to this nation and it's noble people.
    I can compare the voter in 2019 to a battered wife. She has been beaten, bruised and abused for nine years. After enduring years of abuse, she now has been shown a ray of hope, Brexit. As abusers are experts in emotional blackmail . She has been promised that Brexit will solve all her problems and will bring happiness and sunshine into her life. She looks at alternatives outside, such as Corbyn. Through the media, she has been warned that it may be the proverbial frying pan into the fire situation. So does she go back, to being punched, kicked and abused for the next 5-10 years. Or take the 'leap of faith' and walks away?


    you take an awful lot of interest for someone who does not vote. Are you a Labour staffer>?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Yikes!

    Do the polling companies pick these voters up?

    If they have registered to vote, it seems reasonable to expect that they will actually turn up and vote and they are not a Tory-friendly demographic.
    What's the majority predicted in the MRP poll, 48 or something like that? If the young actually turn out to vote, you can see in theory how that majority can shrink.
    IF IF IF aunt/ balls/ uncle and so on and so forth.
    Isn't that joke now seen as horribly transphobic by the woke? ;)
  • drferns27 said:

    I rarely bothered about politics and have never voted. However, in the last decade, I have seen a sea change in people's quality of life. As a senior Health care professional, I see AE departments virtually gridlocked and in winter, in a near state of collapse. Hospitals beds reduced and many hospitals have been 'modified' or primed, for future Privatisation. Many departments and Emergency services have been closed down, forcing the sick and their carers take 50-70 mile round trips, to see a hospital doctor. People are now waiting years to see a Specialist and weeks to see a Gp. Something rarely seen in the Western world. Cancer detection and survival rates are the lowest in the Western world. Death rates, among the elderly, has shot up and no one has been able to fathom why.
    Child poverty and homelessness rates has gone through the roof. Many schools have cut opening hours to 4 days, to remain afloat. Parents bitterly complain that the toilets stink, as schools cannot afford cleaners. The rest of the public services, such as Police, are in a similar situation . This is in the 5th largest economy in the world. I don't think there is a justification for all this, except that the Tories have some sort of vendetta, against money spent to improve the quality of life of the common man.
    The big issue, camouflaging all of the above is Brexit. Sort of, if you can't have bread, eat cake.
    Despite all this, when I speak to my colleagues and friends, about alternatives, there seems to be despondency. The words I hear are, Corbyn is a communist, he hates our way of life, he's a terrorist sympathiser and is anti Brexit. Even the UK's worst enemy or terrorists, would not be able to cause so much misery to the masses, that the Tories have inflicted in 9 years. Through homelessness, child poverty, rising death rates in the elderly and collapsing public services. We don't need an external enemy to cause so much suffering.
    I personally don't support any party and never ever voted before. However, in my heart I feel, that unless your a millionaire or a deluded fool, then the Tories are a curse to this nation and it's noble people.

    During the last decade the government has spent nearly a TRILLION quid more than it has raised through taxation.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6w/pusf

    Perhaps you could tell us how much more the government should have spent and where that money was to come from.

    Meanwhile those misery soaked masses are managing to spend record amounts on imported consumer tat and foreign holidays.
  • malcolmg said:

    matt said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    alex_ said:

    nico67 said:

    The fact is if you’re one of the 3.5 million women effected by the pension changes would you be more or less likely to vote for Labour today .

    And Labour will couch this as , if you can find billions to bail out the banks then why on earth can’t you help these women.

    I fail to see how this doesn’t help Labour, all the bleating by some Tories is just irritation at this policy.

    On the day Labour announce this the Tories will be delivering a manifesto which looks all a bit dull and puts bells and whistles on potholes . Yes they’re annoying but they’ve been allowed to get this bad because of the huge cuts to local government .

    SNIP
    It’s not just those effected , but will impact their husbands aswell and it’s the message it sends out to other women . We’re on your side .

    I’m not saying it’s a game changer because the Tories have a big lead but I simply can’t see any way this doesn’t help Labour.
    What it says to women under 50 is pay extra taxes and work until you are 70 so that some other women can get a state pension at 60.
    It says to women in general Labour are willing to right a wrong that effected them . The issue was how quickly the changes were made and Labour have stressed that’s why they’re offering compensation.

    I fail to see this as a vote loser. Hilariously Christopher Hope of the DT thinks this is going to damage Labour which clearly shows hes rattled !
    What wrong ?

    The wrong of receiving state pension five years earlier than men do ?

    And what is Labour's solution to this 'wrong' ?

    To take £58bn from the young.

    Why should any young or middle aged women support that ?
    Perhaps its the wrong of not being notified with plenty of time. Oh wait, they were.

    This is a policy which will have appeal to that group, and since all our parties bar the Tories are for supporting them they must think that group could be large and influential, but there's been no wrong.
    I thought many of them had little to no notice of the changes.
    The courts have said otherwise.
    Must say have not paid a lot of attention, I got stiffed out of a years pension for myself and my wife so I have already been robbed of circa £16K. Last thing I need is to pay even more than the punitive tax I pay at present to give out more freebies for votes.
    The SNP ruined my retirement plans by ending right-to-buy. Will I be compensated?
  • I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
  • I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
    Our generation are used to being shafted. Boomers are used to getting everything they want handed to them with a silver spoon.

  • "Through homelessness, child poverty, rising death rates in the elderly and collapsing public services. "

    Four assertions none are true.

    The government appears to disagree with you on at least one of those 'assertions'.

    'Estimates for rough sleeping based on street counts suggest numbers are increasing in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, but estimates based on homelessness applications suggest numbers are decreasing in Scotland.'

    https://tinyurl.com/wu2r2oy
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
    I think in general people celebrate the fact the life expectancy has increased by 10% in two generations and accept that there is a price to be paid.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    matt said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    alex_ said:

    nico67 said:

    The fact is if you’re one of the 3.5 million women effected by the pension changes would you be more or less likely to vote for Labour today .

    And Labour will couch this as , if you can find billions to bail out the banks then why on earth can’t you help these women.

    I fail to see how this doesn’t help Labour, all the bleating by some Tories is just irritation at this policy.

    On the day Labour announce this the Tories will be delivering a manifesto which looks all a bit dull and puts bells and whistles on potholes . Yes they’re annoying but they’ve been allowed to get this bad because of the huge cuts to local government .

    SNIP
    It’s not just those effected , but will impact their husbands aswell and it’s the message it sends out to other women . We’re on your side .

    I’m not saying it’s a game changer because the Tories have a big lead but I simply can’t see any way this doesn’t help Labour.
    What it says to women under 50 is pay extra taxes and work until you are 70 so that some other women can get a state pension at 60.
    SNIP
    What wrong ?

    The wrong of receiving state pension five years earlier than men do ?

    And what is Labour's solution to this 'wrong' ?

    To take £58bn from the young.

    Why should any young or middle aged women support that ?
    SNIP
    I thought many of them had little to no notice of the changes.
    The courts have said otherwise.
    Must say have not paid a lot of attention, I got stiffed out of a years pension for myself and my wife so I have already been robbed of circa £16K. Last thing I need is to pay even more than the punitive tax I pay at present to give out more freebies for votes.
    The SNP ruined my retirement plans by ending right-to-buy. Will I be compensated?
    Why did you wait 30+ years to decide. Why was anybody ever allowed to get public property at knockdown rates. Why have I been paying for people to get free houses, those houses were public property.
    I have slogged hard to buy a house , nobody gave me a penny or sold it to me at 30% of the value.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
    Our generation are used to being shafted. Boomers are used to getting everything they want handed to them with a silver spoon.
    Much as I squirm when I hear the US phrase, “the greatest generation”, it’s certainly interesting that their children are the grabbiest, greediest, most ungrateful generation.
  • viewcode said:

    Well the bit about RAF pilots becoming obsolete is true. I know a company making an artificial intelligence which is capable of shooting down USAF top guns 100% of the time in simulated combat.
    Um...you do know the Americans are on our side, right? Even if Trump is under Russian control, he is hardly likely to launch F22s at Northwood.
    Is this entirely beyond dispute?
    Absolutely. The F22 is primarily a fighter and Northwood is a hardened target. He’d send bombers for it.

    Thanks. I often drive through the area. I'll keep my eyes open.
    If you’re within visual range of that sort of bombing range, I think standard procedure is to spread yourself thinly over a 100m2 area.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Royal Navy, has rescued 10 people from the English Chanel
  • Floater said:

    Floater said:

    If the Tories don't go any higher, I still think it could be a Hung Parliament.

    But any more and that possibility diminishes to almost zero.

    LOL - can't fault you for trying
    I'm literally at giving up hope now, the next week is really it for me. If there's no change I will admit defeat and go and hide in a cave somewhere
    I have been watching your efforts with amusement.

    What really makes me laugh is how you keep moving the bar when your last "tipping point" for Labour turns out to be wrong.
    In all honesty I didn't know when the Tory manifesto was being released, I think I said when the manifestos are out and if there is no change then I will give up.

    Labour is out and no change, the Tory one is out today so if no change this week then I will stick with my original idea and give up.

    Don't get me wrong, I will remain hopeful - but it's not looking good.
    With a lab incumbency bonus, poor scottish performance for the Tories, efficient Lib dem vote and hopefully a public Tory endorsement from Trump, this election ain't done yet!
  • camel said:

    I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
    I think in general people celebrate the fact the life expectancy has increased by 10% in two generations and accept that there is a price to be paid.
    The WASPI women want the price to be paid by the young.
  • nunu2 said:

    Royal Navy, has rescued 10 people from the English Chanel

    They'd smell nice at least.
  • Nicky Morgan is in the front row there, interestingly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    camel said:

    I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
    I think in general people celebrate the fact the life expectancy has increased by 10% in two generations and accept that there is a price to be paid.
    Work an extra 3 years so you can then enjoy an extra 3 years unable to wipe your own arse. Wonderful.
  • camel said:

    I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
    I think in general people celebrate the fact the life expectancy has increased by 10% in two generations and accept that there is a price to be paid.
    The WASPI women want the price to be paid by the young.
    Len McClusky
  • camel said:

    I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
    I think in general people celebrate the fact the life expectancy has increased by 10% in two generations and accept that there is a price to be paid.
    The WASPI women want the price to be paid by the young.
    The arrogance over the fact they are arguing to extend inequality for longer and dare to claim to be against inequality makes me quite annoyed.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    camel said:

    I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
    I think in general people celebrate the fact the life expectancy has increased by 10% in two generations and accept that there is a price to be paid.
    Work an extra 3 years so you can then enjoy an extra 3 years unable to wipe your own arse. Wonderful.
    That is not an inevitable consequence!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    As long as we can defend our own shores. We should not be fighting wars abroad.
    There might be benefits to at least appearing to have the potential to take action if we wanted though.

    Frankly with the Tories also splurging the cash I'm surprised that the military would not get a significant boost, and whatever the top brass want they'll face direction to boost numbers.

    Isn't it like the US Congress supposedly approving massive tank building programmes despite the army saying they don't need more tanks? In that example because it makes jobs.
    I do not think the EU, Greenland,
    Your point doesn't seem to relate to mine at all. It wouldn't be about being the policeman of the world, but whether we could, in fact, do anything proactive at all, just in case. That's not a foolproof argument of course, but how much of an armed forced we do need even for the sake of home defence only is a bit of a tricky question.
    What I was alluding to is that we have little to fear from our neighbours so there seems little need for a bigger army. The airforce and navy can at least justify their existence in terms of a UK only role.

    Idle armie are never advisable to have sitting around. Sometimes their Generals get ideas and fix on internal enemies....
    I don't think that true. Our Navy is now centred around 1 or 2 carriers, with a few escorts and submarines. Carriers are useless for home defence, as planes are better based on land for that. Carriers are only needed for expeditionary warfare, such as we have been involved with in the Middle East.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    nunu2 said:

    Royal Navy, has rescued 10 people from the English Chanel

    The Shadow Cabinet?
  • kle4 said:

    As long as we can defend our own shores. We should not be fighting wars abroad.
    There might be benefits to at least appearing to have the potential to take action if we wanted though.

    Frankly with the Tories also splurging the cash I'm surprised that the military would not get a significant boost, and whatever the top brass want they'll face direction to boost numbers.

    Isn't it like the US Congress supposedly approving massive tank building programmes despite the army saying they don't need more tanks? In that example because it makes jobs.
    I do not think the EU, Greenland, Canada or the USA are likely to invade us. Other assets far, far away (like the Falklands).... well, we are no longer a world power and we are busy readying ourselves to become a pawn between powerblocs. Let them be the policemen of the world, we have given that up.
    The EU recently held a joint miltary exercise where they invaded the UK. Disgraceful that our then Government allowed it really.
    Citation needed.
    not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Joint_Warrior

    because they do landings and COIN work but its fairly regular.

    On that note, I'd forgotten our recent joint dealings with France, tbh

    Anyway, every summer, NATO 'practice' invading Norway, Sweden and other Baltic states.
    Ok, but that's slightly different to the EU practicing a sneak attack on the UK.
  • camel said:

    I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
    I think in general people celebrate the fact the life expectancy has increased by 10% in two generations and accept that there is a price to be paid.
    Work an extra 3 years so you can then enjoy an extra 3 years unable to wipe your own arse. Wonderful.
    You'd rather those wiping their arse pay the price instead?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Just logged on. Have the Tories announced Dementia Tax II yet?
  • Interrogation of the details of Labour's manifesto on both Sky and the BBC has developed "not necessarily to Labour's advantage"...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    camel said:

    I remember a friend of mine in about 1995 effing and blinding that she would have to work an extra two months when the proposal to equalise the women's pension age was introduced. :D

    Ditto.

    Its quite a difference to the resigned acceptance from the young every time their pension age is pushed back.
    I think in general people celebrate the fact the life expectancy has increased by 10% in two generations and accept that there is a price to be paid.
    Work an extra 3 years so you can then enjoy an extra 3 years unable to wipe your own arse. Wonderful.
    :D
  • Wouldn't it be a shame if Boris's reheated deal gave the right wing Botulism
  • Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    As long as we can defend our own shores. We should not be fighting wars abroad.
    There might be benefits to at least appearing to have the potential to take action if we wanted though.

    Frankly with the Tories also splurging the cash I'm surprised that the military would not get a significant boost, and whatever the top brass want they'll face direction to boost numbers.

    Isn't it like the US Congress supposedly approving massive tank building programmes despite the army saying they don't need more tanks? In that example because it makes jobs.
    I do not think the EU, Greenland,
    Your point doesn't seem to relate to mine at all. It wouldn't be about being the policeman of the world, but whether we could, in fact, do anything proactive at all, just in case. That's not a foolproof argument of course, but how much of an armed forced we do need even for the sake of home defence only is a bit of a tricky question.
    What I was alluding to is that we have little to fear from our neighbours so there seems little need for a bigger army. The airforce and navy can at least justify their existence in terms of a UK only role.

    Idle armie are never advisable to have sitting around. Sometimes their Generals get ideas and fix on internal enemies....
    I don't think that true. Our Navy is now centred around 1 or 2 carriers, with a few escorts and submarines. Carriers are useless for home defence, as planes are better based on land for that. Carriers are only needed for expeditionary warfare, such as we have been involved with in the Middle East.

    Wasn't that the point though? Who are we meant to be fearing invasion from?
  • nunu2 said:

    Royal Navy, has rescued 10 people from the English Chanel

    The Shadow Cabinet?
    genuine LOL
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    camel said:

    lol "We love Boris" picture on the back of the tory manifesto.

    Jesus!
This discussion has been closed.