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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?
If these @DeltapollUK ratings are replicated with @IpsosMORI then Boris Johnson is about to repeat Theresa May's cratering of her ratings at GE2017. pic.twitter.com/fJQxWO6Hkx
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I get really irritated at policy positions which are really transparently bribes for certain demographics, young or old, from whomever offers them or even if just being oandered to by media, and this issue is definitely that, pretending its some horrible tragedy.
Tough ask, and id think reasonable to weigh up both leadership rating and voting intention since last time Corbyn improved both in the campaign all the way through.
Seriously, we are actually saying speeding things up is in itself unreasonable? Never mind how much time there was before and how much time there still was afterwards?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-50435014
Labour - listen up. Our sex were used and abused as workers, for half a decade more than women. All men should be given a chunk of money, as compensation for this outrage done to us. Or we aren't voting for you.
Or something.
Wherever Ruja Ignatova is hiding, she'd better have really good security. There's many people looking for her who have lost a *lot* of money.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1198295608781627395
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/19/and-the-big-verdict-most-voters-found-the-debate-frutrating/
Voters like Boris; they don't trust him, and the CCHQ stunts remind people of that, to draw these two comments together.
They could be spot on after all. Boris is likeable, charismatic, and popular whilst the stalinists running labour have turned the party into the communist party, and the voters, particularly long standing labour ones are clearly upset and angry about that to hand Boris 50 safe labour seats for the first time in generations, and after all the austerity and chaos of the last few years too it takes very very special labour leaders to screw up such an open goal and handover a party 130 seats from even a tiny majority.
The likes of red Len wont be able to lash out at the moderate wing of the party, they are keeping dutifully quiet and the impression of a united party. Hilary Benn even had a go at trying to sell red lens insane BT nationalisation.
What did the BBC know - and when did they know it? The Governors should look into their processes behind that programme. Boris got out alive, but you can look at that format and wonder - to what extent was it crafted with an intent to hurt one or more of the leaders? I look forward to the House Select Committee inviting the programme's producers in for a discussion on their methods for selecting the audience.
The debates have become an integral part of the election campaign. Try to avoid them - and ask Theresa May what happens. All aspects need to be as transparent as voting for my MP.
(*well, more like a reverse 1992 - VI says majority, leader ratings will portend a Hung Parliament)
As far as the Scots poll is concerned Nicola Sturgeon has made an error by calling it a vote for independence when it was far easier just to keep it to stopping brexit
She has given the conservatives the boost of not only the 38% who voted leave (and of course TBP are not standing ) but a greater number who reject independence
I have no idea how this GE pans out but it does seem unlikely that Boris will fail to achieve a majority of some sort, bribes or otherwise from labour
The only worry now for the leaderless Blue Team is: vote distribution. There is a possibility, a strong possibility, that SCons are building up support in the Central Belt, but losing just enough unwind to the SLDs to narrowly lose some seats outwith the Central Belt. East Renfrewshire might see a thumping SCon increased majority whereas we could easily see a shock loss in a seat with a significant SCon Maj in 2017.
Ayr looks vulnerable due to loss of the incumbent.
Good for SLab too: only down 7 points from 2017. They’re not deid yet!
Horrific for the SLDs.
Disappointing for the SNP.
(Edit: split long post.)
Even a small SCon to SLD tactical unwind could make for a very unpleasant election for your team.
One frequently fears that Labour could say it would do literally anything - however preposterous, unbelievable, horrifying, whatever - and a third (or more?) of the entire electorate would back them reflexively.
Not good, not good at all.
And it’ll all probably be wildly popular - just needs to get it through the courts...
On these numbers, you'd expect the Tories to lose a couple of seats to the SNP, the Labour Party to lose all but one or two of their seats, while the LDs might (or might not) pick up Fife NE. (And while they probably deserve to lose Edinburgh West, they probably won't.)
The great hope of Remainers was the Tories getting a thrashing in Scotland. But the SCons seats overlapped with the most pro-leave parts of Scotland. They might benefit from their vote concentrating exactly where they need it and thereby keeping losses to a minimum. Incredibly good new for Boris if so - not only for a majority, but also for saying that his majority has has some (although a lessened) legitimacy in Scotland to proceed with Brexit.
Unionist + Leave = Con
Unionist + Remain = LD
Seperatist + [] = SNP
Unionist + ? = Labour
The interesting thing about Scotland in 2019 is changing tactical vote assumptions.
If there’s going to be an audience, then being a member of a political party should be a bar to attendance.
If the poll is accurate then the Tories aren't going to be crushed back down to one or two seats, but @StuartDickson is obviously right: everything depends on where the churn in these figures is taking place. 8 of the 13 SCon seats are available to the SNP on less than a 5% swing, and you could make a case for their holding or losing all of them.
there are only 3 relevant parties in Scotland in this election
SCon = keep UK and honour Brexit
SLib = keep UK and bollocks to Brexit
SNP = bollocks to UK and EU please let us back in.
Anything else is a wasted vote including and especially SLAB.
But unprompted and unprovoked, she just went off on one about Jo Swinson. "Who does she think she is? "Prime Minister"...? Revoking Brexit? Pah!"
I had picked up on it on the doorsteps very early on - and posted that on here. I still can't quite process quite why she riles people quite so much. It's a bit odd. There's no obvious basis for the strength of feeling against her. But it is there.
Now, who those collapsing Lab voters are is vital to working out what happens. If it is left wing Lab voters going back to the SNP then even those scant few percentage points of SNP rise are vital as that's pure swing which could get the SNP challenging a bunch of SCon seats.
But it's a stonking poll for the SCons. The Brexit Party standing down is huge. I am off to reconfigure my betting position as Unionist tactical voting will totally keep seats I thought were goners.
1. Even though it has been supplanted by the SNP, it still has a large residuum of tribal loyalty voters
2. There's a huge pool of voters for it to fish in, because Scotland cleaves substantially to the Left of England (SNP+Lab+LD = 70%)
The latter point is one of the best arguments for independence. It's a win-win for everybody. Not only does Scotland get a sovereign Government so it can go off and do its own thing. England gets to see Labour's walking stick - for the SNP controls a large bloc of valuable seats that can be used to prop up Corbyn and his successors - kicked away.
If the Marxist project is going to take over then the least we can expect is that it should catch on in the leafy suburbs as well as the old coalfields and the urban cores. The argument about 'Governments we didn't vote for' cuts both ways.
In 2017 they got 37% of the vote.
During the 2017 election campaign they had a poll range of 39%-43%
As I have said before, the real problem is that ordinary non-political people don’t want the hassle of going.
Amid all the poor figures for the LDs, the one hopeful sign from the MRP is that, as has been suspected, the recovery in the party’s vote is geographically concentrated.
What could be impacting is the tv media's relentless pushing of the Labour line questioning Boris's trustworthiness.
Compare and contrast to how they report on Labour's blatant NHS lies that "it's for sale" & drug costs will go up £500m a week after any US trade deal.
I would have thought the problem last time was people said they will vote SNP because it’s fashionable and then fail to vote at all. So perhaps their vote will have firmed up by now.
Will the SNP's changed focus from Brexit to Indy get them the turnout of 'lazy' indy supporters? (in 2015 and 2017 if you plot SNP vote by constituency turnout you.get a very clear and obvious trend of lower turnout = higher SNP vote)
Have the pollsters adjusted for the SNP polling overstatement?
From speaking to someone who's partner works for Ipsos Mori I know they are grappling with question 2.
They add a level of farce to proceedings which is at best pantomime and at worst renders the format unwatchable.
It doesn't contain a similar approval question, but it does ask a series of Johnson vs Corbyn questions (prompting those surveyed about the Tuesday debate first.) The results are as follows:
Is more likely to sort Brexit: BJ 53%, JC 20%
Is more trustworthy: 35-33
Is more Prime Ministerial: 46-25
Can be more trusted with the economy: 45-25
Can be more trusted with the NHS: 32-41
Can be more trusted on issues of national security: 48-22
Is more likely to keep the UK together: 40-29
On the central question of the economy Johnson is 20pts ahead, which is close to the net approval lead shown by Deltapoll. Whether this is correlation or coincidence I leave for others to judge, but personally I'm nervous.
Then again, I was nervous before and I'll continue to be nervous until this is all over.
It's hard to follow Opinium's tables, but I think their numbers are 0% and -28%.
He needs to perform well in all the remaining debates.
There's already a radio phone-in show after QT anyway. If it's really essential that we also be subjected to random members of the public emoting then that strikes me as entirely sufficient.
Or we could just introduce a fair voting system, like most other democracies.
Con = 11-12
Lab = 1-3
LD = 4
SNP = 41-43
Everything at Westminster needs an SNP vote to change it, while everything devolved to Scotland going wrong is not the SNP’s fault.
Edit - it was David Linden, MP for Glasgow NE.
Anyway, how many set pieces like that are there left to go? I know that there's at least one seven-way slanging match coming up, but I am given to understand that Con and Lab are both sending understudies to that one (unless Labour plan to try to score a PR win against Johnson by subbing Corbyn back in again five minutes before it goes on air.)
Then there's another Johnson-Corbyn head-to-head shortly before polling day.
Anything else I'm missing?
https://twitter.com/RickBlagger/status/1198200080580382720?s=19
I wouldn't bet against something unexpected cropping up in the final week though.
It is blatantly not true that every party has an equal chance in every seat.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/
Which goes some way to explain his circumlocutions and malapropisms.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1197092768268652545?s=19
18 million people watched it. Back then people had fewer channels, no social media, but as a result much better attention spans.
My guess is that both the major parties got straight on the case and got numbers of their activists to submit applications. Whether they were all honest about their allegiance, who can say?
The LibDems don't appear to have played that game (at least with any success), to their disadvantage.
The BBC needs to do better.
Makes you wonder if their internal ambitions don't really extend beyond focusing on holding what they have in London and their other strong remain seats.
All Lib Dem leaders get attacked from both sides during a campaign, perhaps with the exception of Nick Clegg. I remember Tories clutching their Pearl's over Farron in a similar way.
Looking at the polls, I don't see much squeeze. 15% is a respectable score, and at a similar level to most of my political life.
Did statistically improbably poorly with football yesterday. I blame the results.
Anyway, backed Newcastle to beat Aston Villa, and Sheffield to beat Manchester United. (That's one today and one tomorrow).
The excuse that the Scottish Government could've done better if free from the yoke of Tory austerity would've been largely removed if Scotland raised as well as spent revenue in broad proportion to the extent of its responsibilities. If the Scottish Government thought that the rich, or businesses, or everybody ought to pay more tax to provide better public services then it could've charged higher tax rates than those in England, and then justified the choice to its electorate.
The UK Government requires a revenue stream from Scotland to cover reserved responsibilities, and may also need to send transfer payments back to Scotland under some sensible formula recognising factors such as the relative wealth of the component parts of the UK and the relative cost of providing public services (not the arbitrary Barnett formula - another of Labour's cock-ups was failing to replace that at the outset.) But a powerful devolved settlement should also mean that a substantial fraction of the money spent by the Scottish Government should also be raised by it. The devolution of control over income tax, VAT, corporation tax and property taxes to Scotland would constitute about 60% of tax receipts and be broadly consistent with the percentage of public spending that is now devolved.
The final piece of the puzzle is a federal system, but that will never happen because the dominant parties at Westminster won't set up an English Parliament, for various reasons I shan't bore on about right now.
Anyway, this is all moot. Scotland will probably secede in a few years, whatever the circumstances.