My 82 year old mum had Carrie Symmonds with the No 10 dog knock at her door canvassing in Hastings today with the local Tory candidate.
Interesting that the Tories are putting so much effort into Hastings & Rye though - clearly making sure they are defending their marginals as well as attacking their targets.
Re Barnesian's model - it has come under a lot of scrutiny on here and I, like others have said, would expect CON to have more seats if 12% ahead.
But Barnesian has clearly put a lot of effort and thought into it and should be commended for that. And I think that if we (CON 😀) are 10% ahead the majority could be tight.
But as no one likes SuperJo anymore I think we can hold Richmond Park! 😀
Utterly inconsequential question but I'm curious: I've been checking Amazon a few times today, lazily browsing for Christmas.
I've also got Civ VI in my shopping basket (considering buying it, obviously). The price has continually fallen by a few pence each time today. No idea why. I can see a one-off currency correction or price match changing it, but it's happened half a dozen times and I can't work out why that would be. Any ideas?
Maybe it triggers a Dutch auction each time you log on? Until you finally succumb.....
Labour needs to close the gap this weekend and fast. They still have time but time is running out.
I still think that Tory vote is far too strong, I think they are ahead but they're in the 30s not the 40s. I stand by my original prediction of something like 37/35
What's this feeling based on?
That May got 43% and was more popular across the spectrum than Johnson is. Johnson is very popular with a large-ish group of people - but I'm not convinced it's with everybody who would vote Conservative.
I think 2017 was a high point in terms of their voteshare and historically they haven't ever polled much over that, so I think higher predictions are silly.
In regards to why I think it's less than 40%, that's what Cameron was polling in 2010 and 2015 and again he appealed far more across the spectrum than Johnson does now.
I simply think the Tory vote is overstated - and the Labour vote understated. That's just my feeling about it.
Cameron + UKIP got 51% in GB in 2015. The 'conservative' vote plus a few orange book libdems I should imagine.
Maybe the orange book liberals have returned home, but the tory vote at 40+ looks pretty firm to me, barring a BXP surge.
I wouldn't be downhearted if the polls don't go your way this weekend. There's a lot of time left and the anti-tory vote is still 55%+ with time to coalesce around labour.
Labour needs to close the gap this weekend and fast. They still have time but time is running out.
I still think that Tory vote is far too strong, I think they are ahead but they're in the 30s not the 40s. I stand by my original prediction of something like 37/35
What's this feeling based on?
That May got 43% and was more popular across the spectrum than Johnson is. Johnson is very popular with a large-ish group of people - but I'm not convinced it's with everybody who would vote Conservative.
I think 2017 was a high point in terms of their voteshare and historically they haven't ever polled much over that, so I think higher predictions are silly.
In regards to why I think it's less than 40%, that's what Cameron was polling in 2010 and 2015 and again he appealed far more across the spectrum than Johnson does now.
I simply think the Tory vote is overstated - and the Labour vote understated. That's just my feeling about it.
So Tories still have a huge 12% lead after the first debate and Labour manifesto launch and only movement 1% from the Brexit Party to the LDs
Give or take its roundabout of movement, moe etc. It’s Tories plus BREX 45 which sounds about right, and it BREX squeezed to the pips and Tories on 42.
Are there really hundreds of thousands of under 35’s registering to vote?
Really good question. By law everyone should be on the register and as the new register only came into force last month there should be relatively few updates. That is the theory.
I know that in the past registration departments have reported that over 80% of these registrations are in fact duplications of existing registrations. It is likely this register, being much newer than usual for an election will have those who failed to respond to canvas needing to be reinstated.
I have seen a terrible glitch in the new super system which needs to be addressed - maybe has been. House sold subject to contract - new "owners" registered on the strength of that - then f**ked off. Unfortunately the family who continued to own were kicked off the register by the new info - alarmed to not get polling cards but turned up to vote - June 2017 - and were told they weren't on the register even though they had been and had responded to the canvas.
It seems to me there should be electronic tracking of the register on the actual polling day. All double entries - for the same NI number should be linked. Then - when you vote your eligibility to vote ceases not just in that polling station but also the one 200 miles away.
They are cautiously optimistic (Hampstead & Kilburn).
No canvassing from Labour yet - Kinabalu, where are you?! A couple of leaflets in the last day or so emphasising that Tulip voted against triggering Article 50. Nothing from the Tories yet.
Back to the racing.
I've had a stinking cold and am now embroiled with builders. Still planning to do it though. See myself as a 'supersub' coming on with time running out. Hope it's not a Trevor Brooking & Kevin Keegan "too little too late" situation. Tulip still the favourite but LDs a live danger. Surely won't go Con but even that is not impossible. It's an interesting seat again. Our votes count at least 5.
The LibDems have become an object of mockery for their communications. Rightly so, but it is not a good state of affairs. They have been found out. Their tactics give the impression of being aimed at the terminally stupid. As Dubya said "You can fool some of the people all of the time - and those are the ones you want." Also not a good state of affairs, applying George W. Bush as your tactician.
So Tories still have a huge 12% lead after the first debate and Labour manifesto launch and only movement 1% from the Brexit Party to the LDs
Give or take its roundabout of movement, moe etc. It’s Tories plus BREX 45 which sounds about right, and it BREX squeezed to the pips and Tories on 42.
Are there really hundreds of thousands of under 35’s registering to vote?
Really good question. By law everyone should be on the register and as the new register only came into force last month there should be relatively few updates. That is the theory.
I know that in the past registration departments have reported that over 80% of these registrations are in fact duplications of existing registrations. It is likely this register, being much newer than usual for an election will have those who failed to respond to canvas needing to be reinstated.
I have seen a terrible glitch in the new super system which needs to be addressed - maybe has been. House sold subject to contract - new "owners" registered on the strength of that - then f**ked off. Unfortunately the family who continued to own were kicked off the register by the new info - alarmed to not get polling cards but turned up to vote - June 2017 - and were told they weren't on the register even though they had been and had responded to the canvas.
It seems to me there should be electronic tracking of the register on the actual polling day. All double entries - for the same NI number should be linked. Then - when you vote your eligibility to vote ceases not just in that polling station but also the one 200 miles away.
Oh, and three dead people voted in Kirkby Lonsdale in June 2017 - or at least presented themselves to the tellers - computerised telling would stop that as well.
Looks like the Tories are going to pledge a law to seriously restrict rail strikes in their manifesto tomorrow.
That’ll probably prove decisive for my vote.
Especially with Southwest rail drivers going on strike for a month starting Dec 1st - there's a lot of LD target seats there like Guildford which will be totally cut off from London. Smart move!
Utterly inconsequential question but I'm curious: I've been checking Amazon a few times today, lazily browsing for Christmas.
I've also got Civ VI in my shopping basket (considering buying it, obviously). The price has continually fallen by a few pence each time today. No idea why. I can see a one-off currency correction or price match changing it, but it's happened half a dozen times and I can't work out why that would be. Any ideas?
Civ 6 is great
Steam will no doubt have it on sale at big discount over xmas period
I think the Tories will likely win a decent majority, but there's three reasons to my mind it will not be a landslide.
1.) Scotland - the Tories will lose seats which puts a dent in any prospects of a mammoth win.
2.) Low turnout among some groups of their target voters. What won the 2016 referendum for leave was arguably groups of voters who had not really bothered to vote for a while. Those voters may well turn out to get Brexit done. But maybe less likely to bother if it looks like a cakewalk and done deal. So things will correct a little if the Tories are still streets ahead going into polling day.
3.) Remainer kicking provided it's not at the expense of Corbyn. A similar reaction. There's lots of people in the South East and London in particular who are furious about Brexit, hate Boris, but not keen at all on Jeremy Corbyn running the country. If Labour look utterly screwed they might lend them - or the Lib Dems - their vote to try and stymie, or at the very least give the Tories a firm kick before they enact Brexit. The reason Corbyn has little hope of winning is that should the polling close - these people will not join his camp and may well cling to Boris for fear of something worse. So JC will fail to get the gains to surge beyond, even if not major, losses in midlands and the north with constituencies who are voting in accordance with their Brexit vote.
They are cautiously optimistic (Hampstead & Kilburn).
No canvassing from Labour yet - Kinabalu, where are you?! A couple of leaflets in the last day or so emphasising that Tulip voted against triggering Article 50. Nothing from the Tories yet.
Back to the racing.
I've had a stinking cold and am now embroiled with builders. Still planning to do it though. See myself as a 'supersub' coming on with time running out. Hope it's not a Trevor Brooking & Kevin Keegan "too little too late" situation. Tulip still the favourite but LDs a live danger. Surely won't go Con but even that is not impossible. It's an interesting seat again. Our votes count at least 5.
Afternoon kinabalu I hope your cold gets better.
I hope your supersub act doesn't turn out to be GT bringin on Alan Smith for Lineker in '92.
You think a 2010 result likely in Hampstead? That was very much a three way. I wonder if 2010 might be the national picture?
Utterly inconsequential question but I'm curious: I've been checking Amazon a few times today, lazily browsing for Christmas.
I've also got Civ VI in my shopping basket (considering buying it, obviously). The price has continually fallen by a few pence each time today. No idea why. I can see a one-off currency correction or price match changing it, but it's happened half a dozen times and I can't work out why that would be. Any ideas?
I've found that with Amazon on books. I reckon if I hold my nerve long enough I'll get them for free. What usually happens though is that after about ten days they whack up to double the original price. It's all in the timing.....
Labour needs to close the gap this weekend and fast. They still have time but time is running out.
I still think that Tory vote is far too strong, I think they are ahead but they're in the 30s not the 40s. I stand by my original prediction of something like 37/35
How do you explain the total failure of the polling industry to pick up and reflect this?
Utterly inconsequential question but I'm curious: I've been checking Amazon a few times today, lazily browsing for Christmas.
I've also got Civ VI in my shopping basket (considering buying it, obviously). The price has continually fallen by a few pence each time today. No idea why. I can see a one-off currency correction or price match changing it, but it's happened half a dozen times and I can't work out why that would be. Any ideas?
Civ 6 is great
Steam will no doubt have it on sale at big discount over xmas period
Utterly inconsequential question but I'm curious: I've been checking Amazon a few times today, lazily browsing for Christmas.
I've also got Civ VI in my shopping basket (considering buying it, obviously). The price has continually fallen by a few pence each time today. No idea why. I can see a one-off currency correction or price match changing it, but it's happened half a dozen times and I can't work out why that would be. Any ideas?
Civ 6 is great
Steam will no doubt have it on sale at big discount over xmas period
Labour needs to close the gap this weekend and fast. They still have time but time is running out.
I still think that Tory vote is far too strong, I think they are ahead but they're in the 30s not the 40s. I stand by my original prediction of something like 37/35
How do you explain the total failure of the polling industry to pick up and reflect this?
Because HorseBattery is hoping rather than looking for any accuracy.
Its not that long ago he was telling us over and over how the gap was narrowing - he let that die a death last weekend
Utterly inconsequential question but I'm curious: I've been checking Amazon a few times today, lazily browsing for Christmas.
I've also got Civ VI in my shopping basket (considering buying it, obviously). The price has continually fallen by a few pence each time today. No idea why. I can see a one-off currency correction or price match changing it, but it's happened half a dozen times and I can't work out why that would be. Any ideas?
The price is only locked when you make payment.
The multiple falls in price by 1p suggest that the vendor and the vendor's main competitor are using automated software to fight for the buy box.
Eventually on of the vendors will hit floor they have set and the price will ceases to subside. Sometime you get two moronic vendors, in which case you may get the product for nothing.
Labour needs to close the gap this weekend and fast. They still have time but time is running out.
I still think that Tory vote is far too strong, I think they are ahead but they're in the 30s not the 40s. I stand by my original prediction of something like 37/35
How do you explain the total failure of the polling industry to pick up and reflect this?
I think of it in a similar way to how the polls got 2015 completely wrong.
They are cautiously optimistic (Hampstead & Kilburn).
No canvassing from Labour yet - Kinabalu, where are you?! A couple of leaflets in the last day or so emphasising that Tulip voted against triggering Article 50. Nothing from the Tories yet.
Back to the racing.
I've had a stinking cold and am now embroiled with builders. Still planning to do it though. See myself as a 'supersub' coming on with time running out. Hope it's not a Trevor Brooking & Kevin Keegan "too little too late" situation. Tulip still the favourite but LDs a live danger. Surely won't go Con but even that is not impossible. It's an interesting seat again. Our votes count at least 5.
Manuka honey for colds; but get the proper (expensive - sorry) stuff. I have a teaspoon every day and have been cold free for two years since I started on it... and I work with students, who have perennial and persistent viruses.
They are cautiously optimistic (Hampstead & Kilburn).
No canvassing from Labour yet - Kinabalu, where are you?! A couple of leaflets in the last day or so emphasising that Tulip voted against triggering Article 50. Nothing from the Tories yet.
Back to the racing.
I've had a stinking cold and am now embroiled with builders. Still planning to do it though. See myself as a 'supersub' coming on with time running out. Hope it's not a Trevor Brooking & Kevin Keegan "too little too late" situation. Tulip still the favourite but LDs a live danger. Surely won't go Con but even that is not impossible. It's an interesting seat again. Our votes count at least 5.
Manuka honey for colds; but get the proper (expensive - sorry) stuff. I have a teaspoon every day and have been cold free for two years since I started on it... and I work with students, who have perennial and persistent viruses.
I believe at least twice as much Manuka honey is sold than is made. Go figure.
Utterly inconsequential question but I'm curious: I've been checking Amazon a few times today, lazily browsing for Christmas.
I've also got Civ VI in my shopping basket (considering buying it, obviously). The price has continually fallen by a few pence each time today. No idea why. I can see a one-off currency correction or price match changing it, but it's happened half a dozen times and I can't work out why that would be. Any ideas?
Civ 6 is great
Steam will no doubt have it on sale at big discount over xmas period
Labour needs to close the gap this weekend and fast. They still have time but time is running out.
I still think that Tory vote is far too strong, I think they are ahead but they're in the 30s not the 40s. I stand by my original prediction of something like 37/35
How do you explain the total failure of the polling industry to pick up and reflect this?
Labour needs to close the gap this weekend and fast. They still have time but time is running out.
I still think that Tory vote is far too strong, I think they are ahead but they're in the 30s not the 40s. I stand by my original prediction of something like 37/35
How do you explain the total failure of the polling industry to pick up and reflect this?
There is some evidence that more 2017 Labour voters are in the don't know column than 2017 other party voters.
Might make a couple of points difference. CorrectHorseBattery seems to more bullish on labour and bearish on con than me though.
I use hydrogen peroxide (food grade, very diluted) ear drops when a cold threatens. Kills it dead. Even if you catch it too late it seems to shorten it.
I think the Tories will likely win a decent majority, but there's three reasons to my mind it will not be a landslide.
1.) Scotland - the Tories will lose seats which puts a dent in any prospects of a mammoth win.
2.) Low turnout among some groups of their target voters. What won the 2016 referendum for leave was arguably groups of voters who had not really bothered to vote for a while. Those voters may well turn out to get Brexit done. But maybe less likely to bother if it looks like a cakewalk and done deal. So things will correct a little if the Tories are still streets ahead going into polling day.
3.) Remainer kicking provided it's not at the expense of Corbyn. A similar reaction. There's lots of people in the South East and London in particular who are furious about Brexit, hate Boris, but not keen at all on Jeremy Corbyn running the country. If Labour look utterly screwed they might lend them - or the Lib Dems - their vote to try and stymie, or at the very least give the Tories a firm kick before they enact Brexit. The reason Corbyn has little hope of winning is that should the polling close - these people will not join his camp and may well cling to Boris for fear of something worse. So JC will fail to get the gains to surge beyond, even if not major, losses in midlands and the north with constituencies who are voting in accordance with their Brexit vote.
The polls and the impending 'Tory landslide' were given substantial coverage in the MSM in 2017. This time I have found that the polls have been much less featured in the news. How many people are going around mindful of another impending 'Tory landslide'?
Labour abolishing the Marriage Tax allowance only hits the 95% and not the 5%.
That's a £250pa per household impacted.
That will mostly be made up for by their free broadband, which is allegedly both FTTP and 30mbps.
I have FTTP and have 30mbps.
The main thing compared to ADSL is that the 30mbps is rock fucking solid no matter the time of day or day of week.
As compared to the notional 16mbps we had on ADSL which could be any figure between that and half a Meg.
You have fttp and only bothered with 30Mb?! If I had fttp I'd be getting the full 1Gb for sure.
FTTP came with the new build I bought. Don't have a copper line at all.
Sure, but why only 30Mb?!
30mb/s should be enough for anyone.
Can't even get 4K Netflix with that!
I think HD is about 35M not to buffer. So is 4K about 100M ? I get what claims to be 4K on youtube with no buffering but I have 1G - B4RN - Broadband for the Rural North. This time last year I was on satellite and paying 4 times as much. Didn't even bother connecting the TV had about 10M to 20M and that was still for ever better than BT
Most LDs thesedays seem as against the coalition as Labour are, I'm surprised a non-coalition candidate did not stand for leader. Sure they still back Jo Swinson, but they seem far more angry about those days than she is.
Looks like the Tories are going to pledge a law to seriously restrict rail strikes in their manifesto tomorrow.
That’ll probably prove decisive for my vote.
Especially with Southwest rail drivers going on strike for a month starting Dec 1st - there's a lot of LD target seats there like Guildford which will be totally cut off from London. Smart move!
Will be very difficult for Labour too as the RMT crazy strike plays completely into Boris's hands - "can you imagine the unions being able to do this on all trains in a nationalised revised British Rail?"
A few million pissed off commuters & their families won't be voting Labour that's for sure.
Looks like the Tories are going to pledge a law to seriously restrict rail strikes in their manifesto tomorrow.
That’ll probably prove decisive for my vote.
Especially with Southwest rail drivers going on strike for a month starting Dec 1st - there's a lot of LD target seats there like Guildford which will be totally cut off from London. Smart move!
This has been a problem on Northern Rail - seems like for ever
They are cautiously optimistic (Hampstead & Kilburn).
No canvassing from Labour yet - Kinabalu, where are you?! A couple of leaflets in the last day or so emphasising that Tulip voted against triggering Article 50. Nothing from the Tories yet.
Back to the racing.
I've had a stinking cold and am now embroiled with builders. Still planning to do it though. See myself as a 'supersub' coming on with time running out. Hope it's not a Trevor Brooking & Kevin Keegan "too little too late" situation. Tulip still the favourite but LDs a live danger. Surely won't go Con but even that is not impossible. It's an interesting seat again. Our votes count at least 5.
Manuka honey for colds; but get the proper (expensive - sorry) stuff. I have a teaspoon every day and have been cold free for two years since I started on it... and I work with students, who have perennial and persistent viruses.
I believe at least twice as much Manuka honey is sold than is made. Go figure.
I think someone's proved that, which is why you need to get the genuine certified stuff. It is expensive but I used to get so many colds from students in the past that I just gave in. Perhaps Corbyn could offer it for free on the NHS; might get my vote. (Probably won't though).
I use hydrogen peroxide (food grade, very diluted) ear drops when a cold threatens. Kills it dead. Even if you catch it too late it seems to shorten it.
Virgin's urine mixed with rats tail extract is effective too,
Most LDs thesedays seem as against the coalition as Labour are, I'm surprised a non-coalition candidate did not stand for leader. Sure they still back Jo Swinson, but they seem far more angry about those days than she is.
There wasn't the greatest pool of MPs to pick from in the leadership election. If they can get to 30 MPs they'll have a good batch of candidates for next time.
On the subject of curing illnesses, vast quantities of intravenous antibiotics seems to work quite well on pneumonia. Not really a home remedy though...
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
It's a complete disaster, yet carries more passengers than ever before. Unnecessary hyperbole.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
Guaranteed guards on each service doubles the chance that it can’t run because of crew shortages or strikes.
Utterly inconsequential question but I'm curious: I've been checking Amazon a few times today, lazily browsing for Christmas.
I've also got Civ VI in my shopping basket (considering buying it, obviously). The price has continually fallen by a few pence each time today. No idea why. I can see a one-off currency correction or price match changing it, but it's happened half a dozen times and I can't work out why that would be. Any ideas?
Civ 6 is great
Steam will no doubt have it on sale at big discount over xmas period
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
It's a complete disaster, yet carries more passengers than ever before. Unnecessary hyperbole.
Having more passengers doesn't stop it being a disaster. I get the train because I have no choice, not because I rate the service.
And because of the fake idea of "competition" I get no choice, it's SWR or I don't go to work. So even that element of it is rubbish.
Unimportant if any of it is or none of it is - people have proudly stated they ignore stories from sources they dislike, as a sign of supposed rationality and virtue. It's bizarre - not all sources are equally credible, and some will definitely have partisan biases to take into account, but you'd think it impossible for Guido or the Canary or whoever to even accidentally have any facts the way people go on.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
@Casino_Royale gave a very well reasoned argument against train guards and he would know more about this subject than almost anyone else here. On a more simple level, there aren't guards on most commuter rail lines and they are perfectly safe. The safety argument is bullshit and hopefully we win and disband all of the rail unions.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
@Casino_Royale gave a very well reasoned argument against train guards and he would know more about this subject than almost anyone else here. On a more simple level, there aren't guards on most commuter rail lines and they are perfectly safe. The safety argument is bullshit and hopefully we win and disband all of the rail unions.
What do you propose we do with all the guards then, make them redundant?
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
It's a complete disaster, yet carries more passengers than ever before. Unnecessary hyperbole.
Having more passengers doesn't stop it being a disaster. I get the train because I have no choice, not because I rate the service.
And because of the fake idea of "competition" I get no choice, it's SWR or I don't go to work. So even that element of it is rubbish.
So the solution to this is a state run railway that would be even more beholden to the unions?
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
@Casino_Royale gave a very well reasoned argument against train guards and he would know more about this subject than almost anyone else here. On a more simple level, there aren't guards on most commuter rail lines and they are perfectly safe. The safety argument is bullshit and hopefully we win and disband all of the rail unions.
What do you propose we do with all the guards then, make them redundant?
Looks like the Tories are going to pledge a law to seriously restrict rail strikes in their manifesto tomorrow.
That’ll probably prove decisive for my vote.
Especially with Southwest rail drivers going on strike for a month starting Dec 1st - there's a lot of LD target seats there like Guildford which will be totally cut off from London. Smart move!
Will be very difficult for Labour too as the RMT crazy strike plays completely into Boris's hands - "can you imagine the unions being able to do this on all trains in a nationalised revised British Rail?"
A few million pissed off commuters & their families won't be voting Labour that's for sure.
It's more the fact they won't be voting LD in case labour get in...
Utterly inconsequential question but I'm curious: I've been checking Amazon a few times today, lazily browsing for Christmas.
I've also got Civ VI in my shopping basket (considering buying it, obviously). The price has continually fallen by a few pence each time today. No idea why. I can see a one-off currency correction or price match changing it, but it's happened half a dozen times and I can't work out why that would be. Any ideas?
Civ 6 is great
Steam will no doubt have it on sale at big discount over xmas period
I use hydrogen peroxide (food grade, very diluted) ear drops when a cold threatens. Kills it dead. Even if you catch it too late it seems to shorten it.
Virgin's urine mixed with rats tail extract is effective too,
For a moment I thought you meant the fragrance pumped out on Branson's trains.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
It's a complete disaster, yet carries more passengers than ever before. Unnecessary hyperbole.
Having more passengers doesn't stop it being a disaster. I get the train because I have no choice, not because I rate the service.
And because of the fake idea of "competition" I get no choice, it's SWR or I don't go to work. So even that element of it is rubbish.
So the solution to this is a state run railway that would be even more beholden to the unions?
Well the current system isn't working, or do you not agree about that?
If they want to privatise it more and get rid of subsidies entirely, then I'd even prefer that over the current system. The thing is that if the subsidies were removed, the TOCs would cease to exist.
I think the Tories will likely win a decent majority, but there's three reasons to my mind it will not be a landslide.
1.) Scotland - the Tories will lose seats which puts a dent in any prospects of a mammoth win.
2.) Low turnout among some groups of their target voters. What won the 2016 referendum for leave was arguably groups of voters who had not really bothered to vote for a while. Those voters may well turn out to get Brexit done. But maybe less likely to bother if it looks like a cakewalk and done deal. So things will correct a little if the Tories are still streets ahead going into polling day.
3.) Remainer kicking provided it's not at the expense of Corbyn. A similar reaction. There's lots of people in the South East and London in particular who are furious about Brexit, hate Boris, but not keen at all on Jeremy Corbyn running the country. If Labour look utterly screwed they might lend them - or the Lib Dems - their vote to try and stymie, or at the very least give the Tories a firm kick before they enact Brexit. The reason Corbyn has little hope of winning is that should the polling close - these people will not join his camp and may well cling to Boris for fear of something worse. So JC will fail to get the gains to surge beyond, even if not major, losses in midlands and the north with constituencies who are voting in accordance with their Brexit vote.
The polls and the impending 'Tory landslide' were given substantial coverage in the MSM in 2017. This time I have found that the polls have been much less featured in the news. How many people are going around mindful of another impending 'Tory landslide'?
It's a shame we don't have more specifically Scottish polling. On the face of it, I'd expect their vote share in Scotland to be quite similar to 2017.
Pity votes work a bit better in Westminster elections I would assume, given the last result, but its telling that they need to be that honest in their targeting, having tapped out positive reasons.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
It's a complete disaster, yet carries more passengers than ever before. Unnecessary hyperbole.
Having more passengers doesn't stop it being a disaster. I get the train because I have no choice, not because I rate the service.
And because of the fake idea of "competition" I get no choice, it's SWR or I don't go to work. So even that element of it is rubbish.
So the solution to this is a state run railway that would be even more beholden to the unions?
Well the current system isn't working, or do you not agree about that?
If they want to privatise it more and get rid of subsidies entirely, then I'd even prefer that over the current system. The thing is that if the subsidies were removed, the TOCs would cease to exist.
It's not working because of the unions. The solution is to smash the unions to bits.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
It's a complete disaster, yet carries more passengers than ever before. Unnecessary hyperbole.
Having more passengers doesn't stop it being a disaster. I get the train because I have no choice, not because I rate the service.
And because of the fake idea of "competition" I get no choice, it's SWR or I don't go to work. So even that element of it is rubbish.
So the solution to this is a state run railway that would be even more beholden to the unions?
Well the current system isn't working, or do you not agree about that?
If they want to privatise it more and get rid of subsidies entirely, then I'd even prefer that over the current system. The thing is that if the subsidies were removed, the TOCs would cease to exist.
It's demonstrably working with more passenger miles than ever before!
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
It's a complete disaster, yet carries more passengers than ever before. Unnecessary hyperbole.
Having more passengers doesn't stop it being a disaster. I get the train because I have no choice, not because I rate the service.
And because of the fake idea of "competition" I get no choice, it's SWR or I don't go to work. So even that element of it is rubbish.
So the solution to this is a state run railway that would be even more beholden to the unions?
Well the current system isn't working, or do you not agree about that?
If they want to privatise it more and get rid of subsidies entirely, then I'd even prefer that over the current system. The thing is that if the subsidies were removed, the TOCs would cease to exist.
It's not working because of the unions. The solution is to smash the unions to bits.
I don't think the Unions are to blame for my train being on average 15 minutes late every day.
I'm highly likely to get it. Last time I bought a proper Civ was in 1999 (console player). But it does seem a bit peculiar.
I bought Civ VI from Steam during a sale last December. But have yet to launch it #uselessanecdote
try it - its a worthy addition to the series
I still like Civ IV
Yes, for whatever reason I never really got into Civ V. But I could always add it to my list of games to own but not get around to playing. At least until I finish with the Outer Worlds.
Sunday 8th December 2019: Poll average will have Lib Dems coming up fast at 24%, Will catch the attention and could mean breaking upper 20's by 10pm on 12th, the point where seats do start to tumble.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
It's a complete disaster, yet carries more passengers than ever before. Unnecessary hyperbole.
Having more passengers doesn't stop it being a disaster. I get the train because I have no choice, not because I rate the service.
And because of the fake idea of "competition" I get no choice, it's SWR or I don't go to work. So even that element of it is rubbish.
So the solution to this is a state run railway that would be even more beholden to the unions?
Well the current system isn't working, or do you not agree about that?
If they want to privatise it more and get rid of subsidies entirely, then I'd even prefer that over the current system. The thing is that if the subsidies were removed, the TOCs would cease to exist.
It's not working because of the unions. The solution is to smash the unions to bits.
I don't think the Unions are to blame for my train being on average 15 minutes late every day.
"Unexpected staff shortages". The driver got plastered last night and didn't show up again, but we can't sack the fucker because the unions will go apeshit.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
It's a complete disaster, yet carries more passengers than ever before. Unnecessary hyperbole.
Having more passengers doesn't stop it being a disaster. I get the train because I have no choice, not because I rate the service.
And because of the fake idea of "competition" I get no choice, it's SWR or I don't go to work. So even that element of it is rubbish.
So the solution to this is a state run railway that would be even more beholden to the unions?
Well the current system isn't working, or do you not agree about that?
If they want to privatise it more and get rid of subsidies entirely, then I'd even prefer that over the current system. The thing is that if the subsidies were removed, the TOCs would cease to exist.
It's not working because of the unions. The solution is to smash the unions to bits.
I don't think the Unions are to blame for my train being on average 15 minutes late every day.
"Unexpected staff shortages". The driver got plastered last night and didn't show up again, but we can't sack the fucker because the unions will go apeshit.
My train has a guard on it every day, it has never been late for this reason.
The most recently given reasons are: faulty doors (TOC problem), faulty coaches (TOC problem)
One thing the public hate more than the rail commuting experience, is somebody buggering about with their commute....see Extinction Rebellion activists....
Most LDs thesedays seem as against the coalition as Labour are, I'm surprised a non-coalition candidate did not stand for leader. Sure they still back Jo Swinson, but they seem far more angry about those days than she is.
There wasn't the greatest pool of MPs to pick from in the leadership election.
What do you mean, there was Jo, Ed and Layla and, um, the gay sex is not a sin not wait it is but I'll lie about it guy could have another go, er, or the liar Carmichael, or...Ok, fair enough.
I do feel for Jo though. I've not seen her really be objectionable, but even assuming some of the criticism of her is overblown, it does seem true people are not taking well to her.
So Tories still have a huge 12% lead after the first debate and Labour manifesto launch and only movement 1% from the Brexit Party to the LDs
Give or take its roundabout of movement, moe etc. It’s Tories plus BREX 45 which sounds about right, and it BREX squeezed to the pips and Tories on 42.
Are there really hundreds of thousands of under 35’s registering to vote?
Really good question. By law everyone should be on the register and as the new register only came into force last month there should be relatively few updates. That is the theory.
I know that in the past registration departments have reported that over 80% of these registrations are in fact duplications of existing registrations. It is likely this register, being much newer than usual for an election will have those who failed to respond to canvas needing to be reinstated.
I have seen a terrible glitch in the new super system which needs to be addressed - maybe has been. House sold subject to contract - new "owners" registered on the strength of that - then f**ked off. Unfortunately the family who continued to own were kicked off the register by the new info - alarmed to not get polling cards but turned up to vote - June 2017 - and were told they weren't on the register even though they had been and had responded to the canvas.
It seems to me there should be electronic tracking of the register on the actual polling day. All double entries - for the same NI number should be linked. Then - when you vote your eligibility to vote ceases not just in that polling station but also the one 200 miles away.
Oh, and three dead people voted in Kirkby Lonsdale in June 2017 - or at least presented themselves to the tellers - computerised telling would stop that as well.
It is entirely understandable. I used to play cricket against Kirkby Lonsdale when at Lancaster and it is a lovely place. But I am fairly sure that they had several of the dead playing for them.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
The UK train system could defiantly be much better, as in there is a lot of room for further improvement.
But has it been a disaster? - No defiantly not,
Passage numbers up massively Safety up - now the safest trains in the EU!! Punctuality up Custer satisfaction up Subsidy (exploding funding for the new HS2) down,
Sounds good to me! and is really the reason so many EU nations are now looking to copy us, and the EU itself is advocation imitation of our system i.e. splitting up track for services.
One easy way to significantly and rapidly improve would be to expand 'Open Access' as pioneered under labour.
But for best results maybe an imitation of the Japanese system, and sell the rail lines to the train operators.
but the worst option would be renationalise, and then let it stagnate as it becomes a play thing of the unions, slowly loosing market share, while taking a bigger and bigger subsidy.
The rail line near me (Chiltern Rail) is state-run. It’s just that the state in question is Germany. It also manages quite happily without guards on most trains. In general the service on it is excellent and they have even opened up a completely new service to Oxford.
I don't see why people would take the piss out of Barneasian's model, just because it's different. I recall the outliers in the 2017 elections being laughed at and ridiculed (with a particularly memorable one being the Survation poll where the BBC laughed at him on TV) and yet they ended up being right.
I think in truth nobody knows what is going to happen and if I have ever sounded certain I can tell you I'm very much not.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
@Casino_Royale gave a very well reasoned argument against train guards and he would know more about this subject than almost anyone else here. On a more simple level, there aren't guards on most commuter rail lines and they are perfectly safe. The safety argument is bullshit and hopefully we win and disband all of the rail unions.
What do you propose we do with all the guards then, make them redundant?
Yes.
The real debate is how much longer we need to have trained drivers rather than a minimum wage person with a panic button.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
@Casino_Royale gave a very well reasoned argument against train guards and he would know more about this subject than almost anyone else here. On a more simple level, there aren't guards on most commuter rail lines and they are perfectly safe. The safety argument is bullshit and hopefully we win and disband all of the rail unions.
What do you propose we do with all the guards then, make them redundant?
Yes.
The real debate is how much longer we need to have trained drivers rather than a minimum wage person with a panic button.
On the London Underground, it is political rather than technical.
SWR could just guarantee guards on trains and stop the strikes. SWT had the franchise for well over 10 years and had barely any strikes at all in that time. The franchise changed and suddenly it's all gone to shit.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
It's a complete disaster, yet carries more passengers than ever before. Unnecessary hyperbole.
Having more passengers doesn't stop it being a disaster. I get the train because I have no choice, not because I rate the service.
And because of the fake idea of "competition" I get no choice, it's SWR or I don't go to work. So even that element of it is rubbish.
So the solution to this is a state run railway that would be even more beholden to the unions?
Well the current system isn't working, or do you not agree about that?
If they want to privatise it more and get rid of subsidies entirely, then I'd even prefer that over the current system. The thing is that if the subsidies were removed, the TOCs would cease to exist.
It's not working because of the unions. The solution is to smash the unions to bits.
I don't think the Unions are to blame for my train being on average 15 minutes late every day.
Depends on the train. If it is a line affected by the guards dispute then it is the unions. If not, then it is Notwork Rail. Only a tiny minority of the dalays are down to something other than guards disputes, signalling, track issues, engineering overrunning or lack of track capacity. And Jez wants the clowns responsible for the infrastructure disaster to run the services as well. You could not invent it.
I don't see why people would take the piss out of Barneasian's model, just because it's different. I recall the outliers in the 2017 elections being laughed at and ridiculed (with a particularly memorable one being the Survation poll where the BBC laughed at him on TV) and yet they ended up being right.
I think in truth nobody knows what is going to happen and if I have ever sounded certain I can tell you I'm very much not.
You sound pretty certain about the polls being wrong.
Comments
Maybe the orange book liberals have returned home, but the tory vote at 40+ looks pretty firm to me, barring a BXP surge.
I wouldn't be downhearted if the polls don't go your way this weekend. There's a lot of time left and the anti-tory vote is still 55%+ with time to coalesce around labour.
I know that in the past registration departments have reported that over 80% of these registrations are in fact duplications of existing registrations. It is likely this register, being much newer than usual for an election will have those who failed to respond to canvas needing to be reinstated.
I have seen a terrible glitch in the new super system which needs to be addressed - maybe has been. House sold subject to contract - new "owners" registered on the strength of that - then f**ked off. Unfortunately the family who continued to own were kicked off the register by the new info - alarmed to not get polling cards but turned up to vote - June 2017 - and were told they weren't on the register even though they had been and had responded to the canvas.
It seems to me there should be electronic tracking of the register on the actual polling day. All double entries - for the same NI number should be linked. Then - when you vote your eligibility to vote ceases not just in that polling station but also the one 200 miles away.
I'm highly likely to get it. Last time I bought a proper Civ was in 1999 (console player). But it does seem a bit peculiar.
Steam will no doubt have it on sale at big discount over xmas period
plus see these sites
https://www.humblebundle.com/store/sid-meiers-civilization-6?hmb_source=search_bar
(£12.50)
https://www.fanatical.com/en/game/sid-meiers-civilization-vi-deluxe-new
£16.79
https://www.cdkeys.com/pc/games/sid-meiers-civilization-vi-6-pc-steam
£7.99!!!!
I have purchased from all 3 and they are fine - some might be steam only keys but that really shouldn't be seen as a problem
1.) Scotland - the Tories will lose seats which puts a dent in any prospects of a mammoth win.
2.) Low turnout among some groups of their target voters. What won the 2016 referendum for leave was arguably groups of voters who had not really bothered to vote for a while. Those voters may well turn out to get Brexit done. But maybe less likely to bother if it looks like a cakewalk and done deal. So things will correct a little if the Tories are still streets ahead going into polling day.
3.) Remainer kicking provided it's not at the expense of Corbyn. A similar reaction. There's lots of people in the South East and London in particular who are furious about Brexit, hate Boris, but not keen at all on Jeremy Corbyn running the country. If Labour look utterly screwed they might lend them - or the Lib Dems - their vote to try and stymie, or at the very least give the Tories a firm kick before they enact Brexit. The reason Corbyn has little hope of winning is that should the polling close - these people will not join his camp and may well cling to Boris for fear of something worse. So JC will fail to get the gains to surge beyond, even if not major, losses in midlands and the north with constituencies who are voting in accordance with their Brexit vote.
I hope your supersub act doesn't turn out to be GT bringin on Alan Smith for Lineker in '92.
You think a 2010 result likely in Hampstead? That was very much a three way.
I wonder if 2010 might be the national picture?
Its not that long ago he was telling us over and over how the gap was narrowing - he let that die a death last weekend
The multiple falls in price by 1p suggest that the vendor and the vendor's main competitor are using automated software to fight for the buy box.
Eventually on of the vendors will hit floor they have set and the price will ceases to subside. Sometime you get two moronic vendors, in which case you may get the product for nothing.
Might make a couple of points difference. CorrectHorseBattery seems to more bullish on labour and bearish on con than me though.
A few million pissed off commuters & their families won't be voting Labour that's for sure.
It's not train drivers that are to blame - it has to be fundamental that people have the right to strike - it's a train company that doesn't give a crap about safety, or passengers, all they care about is profit.
The privatised train system is a complete disaster. It must be re-nationalised.
2 and a bit more weeks tho'
And because of the fake idea of "competition" I get no choice, it's SWR or I don't go to work. So even that element of it is rubbish.
https://twitter.com/JamesKelly/status/1198265272114860033?s=20
If they want to privatise it more and get rid of subsidies entirely, then I'd even prefer that over the current system. The thing is that if the subsidies were removed, the TOCs would cease to exist.
(Actually I do now have a PS4 set up next to the PC)
Oh my word, you have to say that is extraordinary
The most recently given reasons are: faulty doors (TOC problem), faulty coaches (TOC problem)
I do feel for Jo though. I've not seen her really be objectionable, but even assuming some of the criticism of her is overblown, it does seem true people are not taking well to her.
But has it been a disaster? - No defiantly not,
Passage numbers up massively
Safety up - now the safest trains in the EU!!
Punctuality up
Custer satisfaction up
Subsidy (exploding funding for the new HS2) down,
Sounds good to me! and is really the reason so many EU nations are now looking to copy us, and the EU itself is advocation imitation of our system i.e. splitting up track for services.
One easy way to significantly and rapidly improve would be to expand 'Open Access' as pioneered under labour.
But for best results maybe an imitation of the Japanese system, and sell the rail lines to the train operators.
but the worst option would be renationalise, and then let it stagnate as it becomes a play thing of the unions, slowly loosing market share, while taking a bigger and bigger subsidy.
It also manages quite happily without guards on most trains. In general the service on it is excellent and they have even opened up a completely new service to Oxford.
I think in truth nobody knows what is going to happen and if I have ever sounded certain I can tell you I'm very much not.
NEW THREAD