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Even the balloons looked forlorn and listless; remnants of a celebration party no-one really expected to need and now mockingly reminding the few left of those misplaced hopes, as they swayed aimlessly in unseen aerial eddies.

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TheScreamingEagles

First like New Zealand.

squareroot2

second like Corbyn

Jonathan

1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.

TheScreamingEagles

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

SouthamObserver

Yep, I agree. Johnson is a liar who is interested in nothing and no-one but himself, but he has not spent 40 years actively hating the UK and lauding those who would wish it harm. Thus, he will win big.

squareroot2

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

I doubt that will happen. if CCHQ has any sense, Trump will be told to button it.

IanB2

The Tories must at least be a little worried that their campaign rests upon the threat of Corbyn being seen as more real than last time around.

TheScreamingEagles

squareroot2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

I doubt that will happen. if CCHQ has any sense, Trump will be told to button it.

Yes, Donald Trump has a long and distinguished history of keeping his thoughts to himself.

Black_Rook

Thread changes, grrrr...

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/SAshworthHayes/status/1197964883754717189?s=20

That's the SNP's main problem summarised in a tweet. If the Scottish Government could provide all those (very largely middle class) freebies, like relief from tuition fees, prescription charges and social care costs, *AND* balance the budget then the 2014 referendum would most likely have had a different result and Scotland would already be independent by now.

But it can't, which leaves all the swing voters to imagine what goodies they will have to do without and/or how much more they'll be made to cough up in tax. That much said...

rcs1000 said:

It's time for me to call the election:

The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.

The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.

And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.

Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.

It would be a big surprise if the SNP were to more-or-less tread water as @rcs1000 suggests. In fact, if SLAB survive this with 3 or 4 of their little collection of MPs intact and SCON actually advance it'll be utterly astonishing.

As far as the remainder of that prediction goes, I wish I could be that optimistic about the prospects for Labour getting a shellacking, but I'm still very worried that a lot more of the automatons are going to end up obeying their homing signals and Labour will be back up to 35% by polling day. The Lib Dem seat prediction is roughly in accordance with my own expectations, but I fancy they might be down to about 12% nationwide.

timmo

squareroot2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

I doubt that will happen. if CCHQ has any sense, Trump will be told to button it.

Oh..and he will listen?

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

second like Corbyn

Good to see there are still some optimists

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

I doubt that will happen. if CCHQ has any sense, Trump will be told to button it.

Pretty big assumption there.

Actually, a really sensible CCHQ would ask Trump nicely to endorse Corbyn.

OnlyLivingBoy

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

DecrepiterJohnL

Is there a market on whether the Conservative Party will have published its manifesto before polling day?

Black_Rook

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

You mean, the opinion of POTUS will help to swing the election?

The same way that Barack Obama helped the Remain campaign to storm to victory?

Oh, wait...

ydoethur

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

It would take several years for Scotland to leave the UK. Even if it then applied for EU membership within a minute, it would take five years to process.

IanB2

For the LibDems, success in target seats does rely upon the Tory vote falling back at least a little from 2017. Recent polls suggest this may not be happening (although it is still possible the Tories are falling in remain seats and rising in leave seats).

RochdalePioneers

Watching Question Time on catchup. Half way through Corbyn. An odd audience. Half seem to clap wildly every time he takes a breath asking "we love you" questions, the other half asking abusive questions. And some gave him a standing ovation when he entered... Will be interesting to see if the others get the same.

On topic. Tory landslide? A smidge more likely than the Labour landslide that Momentum types in the QT audience want

rcs1000

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

rcs1000 said:

It's time for me to call the election:

The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.

The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.

And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.

Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.

Not far out in my view except I cannot see the Lib Dems exceeding their present 13 MPs - 6 or 7 more likely.

My view is that UNS is usually broadly right. And the LDs will have added c 7 points to their total from 2017, the conservatives will be roughly flat, while Labour will have lost 10 points or even a little more.

Now, there are libdem seats that are vulnerable: certainly North Norfolk, also Eastbourne, and perhaps Westmoreland too. You could also see the libdems drop a seat or two in Scotland.

But more likely, UNS is broadly right.

The Libdems made big gains in North Norfolk early this year in the locals. That doesn't mesh with them losing the seat. In Scotland, all the signs are that the libdems have gained slightly more than the SNP.

And there are seats like a Richmond Park, which are deepest Remainia, and where the conservative candidate is... Uninspiring.

Ultimately, the near doubling of the libdem vote share has to go somewhere. I think they are unlikely to end up down on the night.

SouthamObserver

Jonathan said:

1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.

Labour members have to take a hell of a lot of the blame. This election has shown just how poor a candidate Johnson is. But the lying cretin waving the Union Jack will always beat the lying cretin burning it.

TheScreamingEagles

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

You mean, the opinion of POTUS will help to swing the election?

The same way that Barack Obama helped the Remain campaign to storm to victory?

Oh, wait...

I'm planning on doing a thread on this.

Spoiler alert, Obama ratings with British voters was largely positive, even after that intervention.

Trump's ratings with British voters are so low they make Corbyn look popular.

Those soft Tory voters will peel off if Boris Johnson is seen as Trump's Mini Me.

It'll feed that narrative that the Tories will flog the NHS to Trump and lower standards etc.

nunu2

https://mobile.twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1197898747088441345

It"s not only those earning £80,000 that will pay more tax under Corbyn

Black_Rook

IanB2 said:

The Tories must at least be a little worried that their campaign rests upon the threat of Corbyn being seen as more real than last time around.

The entire narrative at the last election was "Theresa May can't lose," followed swiftly by "That Theresa May, she's a bit pants, isn't she?" Meanwhile, the Labour plan for Government passed almost unnoticed.

This time the story is somewhat different.

I get where you're coming from, but Corbyn is now much more of a known quantity for the voters, and one feared vastly more than he's liked. And they'll remember what happened last time around.

I stand to be corrected by events, but one would've thought that complacency won't be a major factor this time, either for the parties or the public.

nico67

I expect there will be more voters this time using their anti vote . May was just meh ! Bozo polarizes people.

Last nights QT special I doubt will see much movement re changing people’s minds but I think it will help Labour turnout . As for Jo Swinson I think the media are overplaying things .

She had a torrid time , however I thought she did as best as she could in the circumstances.

Jonathan

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.

Labour members have to take a hell of a lot of the blame. This election has shown just how poor a candidate Johnson is. But the lying cretin waving the Union Jack will always beat the lying cretin burning it.

Who burned the flag?

Morris_Dancer

FPT Mr. Pioneers, audience members giving Corbyn a standing ovation as he arrives doesn't necessarily indicate neutrality. Or intelligence. Anyone smart would've stayed in their seat to at least appear impartial.

david_herdson

RochdalePioneers said:

Watching Question Time on catchup. Half way through Corbyn. An odd audience. Half seem to clap wildly every time he takes a breath asking "we love you" questions, the other half asking abusive questions. And some gave him a standing ovation when he entered... Will be interesting to see if the others get the same.

On topic. Tory landslide? A smidge more likely than the Labour landslide that Momentum types in the QT audience want

This is precisely what I mean "a smidge more likely" Apart from all the evidence

IshmaelZ

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

You mean, the opinion of POTUS will help to swing the election?

The same way that Barack Obama helped the Remain campaign to storm to victory?

Oh, wait...

That "Oh, wait" thing is really irritating, and you have diametrically missed the point anyway.

david_herdson

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

I doubt that will happen. if CCHQ has any sense, Trump will be told to button it.

Pretty big assumption there.

Actually, a really sensible CCHQ would ask Trump nicely to endorse Corbyn.

Or Farage

NickPalmer

David's scenario is clearly possible, but personally I'm still expecting a Tory majority in the 15-30 range. I think we'll see the gap narrow to 7-8% tonight, and we'll end up with something like 41-35-12.

In tactical betting terms, it may be a good trading bet to lay Tory majority now and expect to cash in after the Tory manifesto launch if it's successful, or let it ride if it's not.

CCHQ is probably hoping for a few narrow polls just to motivate their voters who want to stop Labour winning but not necessarily to unleash Boris with a majority of 150. But I'm not sure punters are that sophisticated.

ydoethur

david_herdson said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

I doubt that will happen. if CCHQ has any sense, Trump will be told to button it.

Pretty big assumption there.

Actually, a really sensible CCHQ would ask Trump nicely to endorse Corbyn.

Or Farage

That might cause Labour’s BP defectors to switch back.

Trump endorsing Corbyn, we’re going to be talking Liberal Democrats gain Bootle.

Casino_Royale

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.

squareroot2

Jonathan said:

1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.

is that what door to door is telling you? White van man is telling Corbyn to fuck right off. That's what I am hearing and I am not even canvassing

Flashy5

squareroot2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

I doubt that will happen. if CCHQ has any sense, Trump will be told to button it.

Trump could announce that tariffs on Scotch whisky will be lifted after Brexit is done in January.

NorthCadboll

Morning all and I think Boris could be looking at 375+ seats now unless there is a major faux paws in Team Blue. The postal votes start falling on doormats this week and as the majority of them tend to be older and infirm voters who break disproportionately for the Tories, the longer there is no closure of the polls, the more the actual votes begin to stack up for the Tories. For these people it doesn't matter if it is "pissing down" rain on 12th December.

HOWEVER clearly the other big loser last night was Jo Swinson. Even her most ardent defenders are now struggling to describe her as a potential PM on 13th December.

I mentioned last night that I had spoken this week to a well placed contact in the SLibs and far from being confident, they are starting to shit themselves. On the doorsteps they are finding a big move to the SCons among Brexit supporters and many former SLib voters who are angry at the Revoke policy which they see as undemocratic and they just don't like Jo Swinson. For weeks I have been referring to her on here as the "girl guide from Bearsden" to the derision of LibDem supporters in the PB community. However my contact confirmed that is exactly the response they are getting on the doorstep. Comments like "she speaks like a Brownie pack leader" or "why is her voice so shrill" keeps being said, especially by women in their 50s and 60s i.e. the age group old enough to be Jo Swinson's mum!

I had a LibDem chum describe several seats as now being 3-way marginals in relation to SNP held seats pre 2015 held by the LibDems and all across Scotland the SLAB vote is collapsing, if that is possible given the meltdown in 2015 which was barely reversed in 2017. Iain Murray will probably once more be the last SLAB standing.

MarqueeMark

It could be even worse for Labour.

Their strategy is to hold their top 50 Tory targets. But if the Tory Beserkers break through that fire wall, it could be carnage.

The Brexit Party votes might en masse think what is the point of wasting my vote, hold their noses and vote Tory.

The Remain vote might see all is lost, Brexit will happen, blame Labour and the LibDems for letting that come about - and stay home. Who wants to vote for a loser? Especially the young.

The Tory's social media operation could really hit the sweet spot and eviscerate Labour's manifesto pledges - especially lies on tax. And Corbyn's ambivalence on his own renegotiated EU Deal. And hightlight Boris's sunny optimism and how that compares to everybody else's glum talking down of Britain. It has looked a pretty sharp operation so far. Maybe their best work is still ahead of them?

And Labour moderates might take the view that Corbyn has to lose - and lose big - in order to prise the fingers of the hard left off their Party.

In Scotland, the Brexit vote might coalesce around the SCons - the LibDems being seen with suspicion as being prepared to work in a coalition that would bring about Independence. Enough to save most of the Scon seats.

Con 47: Lab 26: LD 11 is a possible outcome. That would be a mega tsunami for Boris.

Black_Rook

TheScreamingEagles said:

Black_Rook said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

You mean, the opinion of POTUS will help to swing the election?

The same way that Barack Obama helped the Remain campaign to storm to victory?

Oh, wait...

I'm planning on doing a thread on this.

Spoiler alert, Obama ratings with British voters was largely positive, even after that intervention.

Trump's ratings with British voters are so low they make Corbyn look popular.

Those soft Tory voters will peel off if Boris Johnson is seen as Trump's Mini Me.

It'll feed that narrative that the Tories will flog the NHS to Trump and lower standards etc.

Ah yes. Because, for soft Tory voters, the theoretical risks of an adverse trade agreement with the United States are, of course, vastly greater than the actual risks of a batshit crazy krypto-communist Government. One that sees them cast on the unemployment scrapheap and panicking as to how they are to service their mortgages, and then ensures their final bankruptcy by demanding eye-watering sums in tax to plug the gaping holes in the nation's crumbling finances.

Voters may detest Trump even more than Corbyn, but they're not being asked to choose between living under the Government of Prime Minister Trump or Prime Minister Corbyn, now are they?

MarqueeMark

(Other outcomes are available!)

RochdalePioneers

nunu2 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1197898747088441345

It"s not only those earning £80,000 that will pay more tax under Corbyn

Of course. Labour pledge to spend a gazillion pounds all of which is coming from me and corporations. The newsflash is I don't have that kind of cash and the corporations will have moved the small bits of tax they pay over to Dublin

NickPalmer

Incidentally, the standout bet on Betfair seems to be 1.05 that the BXP will not get more than 9 seats. That's as close to free money than I've seen for some time.

IanB2

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.

Labour members have to take a hell of a lot of the blame. This election has shown just how poor a candidate Johnson is. But the lying cretin waving the Union Jack will always beat the lying cretin burning it.

The missing element is appreciation of how damaging Brexit, and the Tory obsession with it, will prove for our country. That's the slow burn ticking beneath the Conservative party.

MarqueeMark

Flashy5 said:

squareroot2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.

Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.

I doubt that will happen. if CCHQ has any sense, Trump will be told to button it.

Trump could announce that tariffs on Scotch whisky will be lifted after Brexit is done in January.

That and nothing else would be very nice!

squareroot2

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.

Labour members have to take a hell of a lot of the blame. This election has shown just how poor a candidate Johnson is. But the lying cretin waving the Union Jack will always beat the lying cretin burning it.

The missing element is appreciation of how damaging Brexit, and the Tory obsession with it, will prove for our country. That's the slow burn ticking beneath the Conservative party.

That's a supposition, no one knows the true effect of Brexit.

SouthamObserver

IanB2 said:

The Tories must at least be a little worried that their campaign rests upon the threat of Corbyn being seen as more real than last time around.

The big worry for the Tories is winning on the back of Corbyn and the countless lies they have told since Johnson became leader. At some point, relatively soon after the election, that is going to bite. Though with a large majority it won’t matter in terms of being able to govern.

IanB2

david_herdson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Watching Question Time on catchup. Half way through Corbyn. An odd audience. Half seem to clap wildly every time he takes a breath asking "we love you" questions, the other half asking abusive questions. And some gave him a standing ovation when he entered... Will be interesting to see if the others get the same.

On topic. Tory landslide? A smidge more likely than the Labour landslide that Momentum types in the QT audience want

This is precisely what I mean "a smidge more likely" Apart from all the evidence

Your lead is tentatively putting a foot into the water of what in a week or so could become the same widespread assumption of a Tory landslide that we saw last time. Which doesn't mean that the end of the story wont be different, of course.

RochdalePioneers

david_herdson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Watching Question Time on catchup. Half way through Corbyn. An odd audience. Half seem to clap wildly every time he takes a breath asking "we love you" questions, the other half asking abusive questions. And some gave him a standing ovation when he entered... Will be interesting to see if the others get the same.

On topic. Tory landslide? A smidge more likely than the Labour landslide that Momentum types in the QT audience want

This is precisely what I mean "a smidge more likely" Apart from all the evidence

Mr Herdson sir my apologies for sarcasm. "A smidge more likely" was my sarcastic alternative to "massively more likley."

I absolutely agree that currently all the polls show the Tories smashing Labour to less than 1983. If ever a Labour party needed smashing it's Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party. There is zero chance of a landslide for him - indeed I can't find anyone telling me seriously which seats they expect to pick up in this election.

However, it's difficult to set aside the chances of swing. Polls have swung wildly this year and did so in 2017. So another wild swing is certainly possible.

IanB2

NickPalmer said:

David's scenario is clearly possible, but personally I'm still expecting a Tory majority in the 15-30 range. I think we'll see the gap narrow to 7-8% tonight, and we'll end up with something like 41-35-12.

In tactical betting terms, it may be a good trading bet to lay Tory majority now and expect to cash in after the Tory manifesto launch if it's successful, or let it ride if it's not.

CCHQ is probably hoping for a few narrow polls just to motivate their voters who want to stop Labour winning but not necessarily to unleash Boris with a majority of 150. But I'm not sure punters are that sophisticated.

You aren't factoring in the very negative vibes coming back from Labour doorstep - which weren't really a feature last time?

NorthCadboll

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.

Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!

david_herdson

RochdalePioneers said:

david_herdson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Watching Question Time on catchup. Half way through Corbyn. An odd audience. Half seem to clap wildly every time he takes a breath asking "we love you" questions, the other half asking abusive questions. And some gave him a standing ovation when he entered... Will be interesting to see if the others get the same.

On topic. Tory landslide? A smidge more likely than the Labour landslide that Momentum types in the QT audience want

This is precisely what I mean "a smidge more likely" Apart from all the evidence

Mr Herdson sir my apologies for sarcasm. "A smidge more likely" was my sarcastic alternative to "massively more likley."

I absolutely agree that currently all the polls show the Tories smashing Labour to less than 1983. If ever a Labour party needed smashing it's Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party. There is zero chance of a landslide for him - indeed I can't find anyone telling me seriously which seats they expect to pick up in this election.

However, it's difficult to set aside the chances of swing. Polls have swung wildly this year and did so in 2017. So another wild swing is certainly possible.

It is. But it's becoming harder to see what will prompt it

p.s. Sorry for missing the sarcasm

MarqueeMark

nunu2 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1197898747088441345

It"s not only those earning £80,000 that will pay more tax under Corbyn

But last night, on live national telly, Corbyn said.....

DecrepiterJohnL

RochdalePioneers said:

nunu2 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1197898747088441345

It"s not only those earning £80,000 that will pay more tax under Corbyn

Of course. Labour pledge to spend a gazillion pounds all of which is coming from me and corporations. The newsflash is I don't have that kind of cash and the corporations will have moved the small bits of tax they pay over to Dublin

Labour's corporation tax proposal might be good, bad or indifferent but by historical or international comparison, 26 per cent is not exceptional. It is higher than Italy but lower than Germany, for instance.

IanB2

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, the standout bet on Betfair seems to be 1.05 that the BXP will not get more than 9 seats. That's as close to free money than I've seen for some time.

It was a better bet when I first spotted it at 1.11! I am piled on.

Tory "most seats" at 1.06 is a good bet right now.

SouthamObserver

It’ll be interesting to see which Labour MPs are left standing on 13th December. The PLP will clearly be a lot smaller, but with so many set to lose their seats its look and feel could be very different, too.

dr_spyn

Returned from local supermarket, the huge pile of Guardians with headlines about the NZ backpacker trial verdict. Nothing on Corbyn sitting on the Referendum Fence.

Re Trump, The State Department should remind him that US Presidential meddling in UK politics might not end well, though it begs the question would he listen. If things kick off during his visit, with plenty of broken glass, and burnt out cars, one side may not profit.

ydoethur

Casino_Royale said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.

That will at least be proof they can find their arses without a map.

Fishing

It would be interesting to see what the first Conservative government with a clear majority since 1992 would do, besides - presumably - leave the EU.

While you can get an idea from a manifesto what a government will do, some pledges will inevitably be undeliverable and there will be unforeseen decisions that need to be made.

Still, if the Johnson government is anything like the last strong, right wing government, I will be happy, though obviously many others won't be.

david_herdson

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

The Tories must at least be a little worried that their campaign rests upon the threat of Corbyn being seen as more real than last time around.

The big worry for the Tories is winning on the back of Corbyn and the countless lies they have told since Johnson became leader. At some point, relatively soon after the election, that is going to bite. Though with a large majority it won’t matter in terms of being able to govern.

It should be But Johnson has never really cared about consequences

kinabalu

I agree with the header. My opening call was Con maj of 60 and if anything I would nudge that up now. Of the two extreme possibles a Tory landslide is more likely than a hung parliament.

Black_Rook

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.

Labour members have to take a hell of a lot of the blame. This election has shown just how poor a candidate Johnson is. But the lying cretin waving the Union Jack will always beat the lying cretin burning it.

Of course. The Labour Party membership is primarily to blame. I mean, fair enough, those Olympic Gold Medal standard idiots like Margaret Beckett and Frank Field who insisted on nominating the Marxist lunatic for leader in the first place started the ball rolling, but it was the members who threw their toys out of the pram after Cameron's 2015 election win and voted him in.

Frankly, if the Labour Party is buried so deep beneath a landslide that it takes a decade to dig it back out (and possibly a lot longer than that, should the cumulative effects of boundary reform and the possible secession of Scotland prove hard to overcome,) then they deserve everything they've got coming to them.

That said, I'm still far from convinced that the Revolutionary Comrades of Nicolás Maduro will get thrashed this time around, more's the pity. But I am one of life's natural pessimists. That way, I find that I'm less likely to feel disappointed when the worst inevitably happens.

RochdalePioneers

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

nunu2 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1197898747088441345

It"s not only those earning £80,000 that will pay more tax under Corbyn

Of course. Labour pledge to spend a gazillion pounds all of which is coming from me and corporations. The newsflash is I don't have that kind of cash and the corporations will have moved the small bits of tax they pay over to Dublin

Labour's corporation tax proposal might be good, bad or indifferent but by historical or international comparison, 26 per cent is not exceptional. It is higher than Italy but lower than Germany, for instance.

Oh sure. They aren't setting a punitive corporation tax policy. Instead they are setting a punitive corporation policy. He hates corporations- his pro business answer only talked bout SMEs. The capital flight out of the UK would be spectacular to watch as business looks at not just corporation tax but the appropriation of private assets and the government encouraged attacks on business leaders by Momentumites and They Will Walk.

Fishing

TheScreamingEagles said:

Those soft Tory voters will peel off if Boris Johnson is seen as Trump's Mini Me.

It'll feed that narrative that the Tories will flog the NHS to Trump and lower standards etc.

But that narrative hasn't had any impact, I suspect because anybody remotely likely to vote Conservative will know it is crap. And Trump might well be gone in a year anyway, long before any trade deal is ratified.

I fear that you're grasping at straws.

NorthCadboll

Remember I said at the start of the campaign the vote shares may end up something like Tory 40% Labour 25% LibDem 15% Green and Brexit 5% and SNP, Greens and PC the remainder. Well maybe it is take 2-4% from the LibDems and add them to the Tories. That would then be 1983 once again. It would mean abolition of the FT Act and moving to 600 seats so unlikely anything other than a Tory government until 2030 by which time I will have retired.

ydoethur

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

The Tories must at least be a little worried that their campaign rests upon the threat of Corbyn being seen as more real than last time around.

The big worry for the Tories is winning on the back of Corbyn and the countless lies they have told since Johnson became leader. At some point, relatively soon after the election, that is going to bite. Though with a large majority it won’t matter in terms of being able to govern.

It should be But Johnson has never really cared about consequences

Also, with a large majority, it’s unlikely they would be wiped out at the following election no matter what they did. Blair and Brown won big in 2001, fought a highly controversial and totally unsuccessful war and blew up the national economy, and still 16 years later led by a certifiable lunatic Labour refused to implode.

It’s quite possible a big majority here could leave Labour unable to win the next election outright as well, whatever happens.

Black_Rook

SouthamObserver said:

It’ll be interesting to see which Labour MPs are left standing on 13th December. The PLP will clearly be a lot smaller, but with so many set to lose their seats its look and feel could be very different, too.

Stuffed full of Far Left loonies intent on pursuing a "one more heave" strategy, most likely.

IanB2

NorthCadboll said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.

Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!

There are a few hurdles before Scottish rejoin, but Spanish veto wont be one of them. Why do Brexiters always seem mistakenly to think someone in the EU is going to play a veto?

ydoethur

kinabalu said:

I agree with the header. My opening call was Con maj of 60 and if anything I would nudge that up now. Of the two extreme possibles a Tory landslide is more likely than a hung parliament.

Interesting to note even Labour supporters see a hung parliament as an extreme outcome.

Out of curiosity, if Corbyn does get that, even if he’s a long way behind, do you think he will get to stay on?

IshmaelZ

NorthCadboll said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.

Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!

That would be a uge one indeed. I sailed Bergen Shetland Orkney Outer Hebrides in September, and the contrast between the feeling in the first three of we have got tonnes of oil money and we are going places vs penniless hopelessness in the 4th was striking.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

NorthCadboll said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.

Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!

There are a few hurdles before Scottish rejoin, but Spanish veto wont be one of them. Why do Brexiters always seem mistakenly to think someone in the EU is going to play a veto?

Because they keep saying they will, then bottle it.

In all seriousness, the real hurdle for Scotland is applying to join under Article 49.

Barnesian

Odds on a Tory majority have lengthened from 1.53 to 1.57 i.e. 64% probability of any kind of Tory majority.

My updated model shows:

Con/Lab/LD
329/221/31

I am now assuming that in BXP seats (mainly non-Tory) 40% of current BXP supporters (who are now around 50/50 Con/Lab) switch to Tories and zero switch to Labour. As BXP (and Green) share reduce, the assumptions about their tactical voters diminishes in sensitivity.

Regional swings. My model uses a national swing. I use an average of independent sources for Scotland and Wales. If the swing to Con is higher in the North of England than the South then Tories will win more Lab seats in the North but lose more seats to LD in the South. The total of the regional swings must equal the national swing so there are off-sets. Tories could gain an extra 4 seats from Labour in the North and lose an extra 4 seats to LDs in the South. This would make:

329/217/35

Tactical assumptions: The main driver in the model is voter share in the polls. The most sensitive tactical assumption is how many LDs vote tactically for Labour in seats where LDs have no chance.

I assume that where the LDs have less than 25% of the Lab share, then 50% of LDs vote tactically for Lab. It's a crude attempt at modelling LD behaviour.

If 40% of LDs vote tactically for Lab you get:

334/212/35

If 60% of LDs vote tactically for Lab you get:

325/221/35

Summary:

My best guess on current polling and discounting local factors and knowledge is

Con 325- 334
Lab 212 - 221
LD 31-39

Current sells on spreads

Con 339
Lab 204
LD 29

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

DecrepiterJohnL

dr_spyn said:

Returned from local supermarket, the huge pile of Guardians with headlines about the NZ backpacker trial verdict. Nothing on Corbyn sitting on the Referendum Fence.

The front page on the BBC's newspaper roundup splashes your story: Corbyn neutral on Brexit. The supermarket might have got an earlier edition (or, less likely, a later one).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50525474

RochdalePioneers

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.

Labour members have to take a hell of a lot of the blame. This election has shown just how poor a candidate Johnson is. But the lying cretin waving the Union Jack will always beat the lying cretin burning it.

Of course. The Labour Party membership is primarily to blame. I mean, fair enough, those Olympic Gold Medal standard idiots like Margaret Beckett and Frank Field who insisted on nominating the Marxist lunatic for leader in the first place started the ball rolling, but it was the members who threw their toys out of the pram after Cameron's 2015 election win and voted him in.

Frankly, if the Labour Party is buried so deep beneath a landslide that it takes a decade to dig it back out (and possibly a lot longer than that, should the cumulative effects of boundary reform and the possible secession of Scotland prove hard to overcome,) then they deserve everything they've got coming to them.

That said, I'm still far from convinced that the Revolutionary Comrades of Nicolás Maduro will get thrashed this time around, more's the pity. But I am one of life's natural pessimists. That way, I find that I'm less likely to feel disappointed when the worst inevitably happens.

Its my doing. I liked Ed Milliband a lot but got very frustrated by the party machine neutering his One Nation Labour strategy so that there was nothing in it. So I wanted someone with guts, saw it in Corbyn (who I knew bits about but not lots) and not only voted for him but campaigned for him.

It's my fault. I broke Labour.

IanB2

Barnesian said:

Odds on a Tory majority have lengthened from 1.53 to 1.57 i.e. 64% probability of any kind of Tory majority.

My updated model shows:

Con/Lab/LD
329/221/31

I am now assuming that in BXP seats (mainly non-Tory) 40% of current BXP supporters (who are now around 50/50 Con/Lab) switch to Tories and zero switch to Labour. As BXP (and Green) share reduce, the assumptions about their tactical voters diminishes in sensitivity.

Regional swings. My model uses a national swing. I use an average of independent sources for Scotland and Wales. If the swing to Con is higher in the North of England than the South then Tories will win more Lab seats in the North but lose more seats to LD in the South. The total of the regional swings must equal the national swing so there are off-sets. Tories could gain an extra 4 seats from Labour in the North and lose an extra 4 seats to LDs in the South. This would make:

329/217/35

Tactical assumptions: The main driver in the model is voter share in the polls. The most sensitive tactical assumption is how many LDs vote tactically for Labour in seats where LDs have no chance.

I assume that where the LDs have less than 25% of the Lab share, then 50% of LDs vote tactically for Lab. It's a crude attempt at modelling LD behaviour.

If 40% of LDs vote tactically for Lab you get:

334/212/35

If 60% of LDs vote tactically for Lab you get:

325/221/35

Summary:

My best guess on current polling and discounting local factors and knowledge is

Con 325- 334
Lab 212 - 221
LD 31-39

Current sells on spreads

Con 339
Lab 204
LD 29

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

What base are you using for modelling LD tactical voting?

I'd suggest that pretty much every LD willing to vote for Corbyn to keep the Tories out did so last time, and so maximum LD->Lab tactical voting is already in the base. This time they have better reasons for casting a LibDem/Remain Alliance vote and less good reasons for sticking with Corbyn. So we're looking at an unwind.

Brom

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

The Tories must at least be a little worried that their campaign rests upon the threat of Corbyn being seen as more real than last time around.

The big worry for the Tories is winning on the back of Corbyn and the countless lies they have told since Johnson became leader. At some point, relatively soon after the election, that is going to bite. Though with a large majority it won’t matter in terms of being able to govern.

I don’t think that is a worry, a lot of the troublemakers have left the party and given the opposition is so disjointed I’m sure the Tories would be delighted with any majority above 15-20 which should be enough for a full term.

dr_spyn

The only magnificent Triumph Laura Pidcock will see on December 13th is a sports car.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198162065019547653

MattW

Chukka: "If we go from 20 to 326 MPs that will give us a democratic mandate to stop Brexit."

Er ... yes.

Quite bold from a chap odds-on to be Chukked out of Parliament.

:-o

Have to say that he has done a good job of emasculating the R4 interviewer, though.

IanB2

NorthCadboll said:

Remember I said at the start of the campaign the vote shares may end up something like Tory 40% Labour 25% LibDem 15% Green and Brexit 5% and SNP, Greens and PC the remainder. Well maybe it is take 2-4% from the LibDems and add them to the Tories. That would then be 1983 once again. It would mean abolition of the FT Act and moving to 600 seats so unlikely anything other than a Tory government until 2030 by which time I will have retired.

With lots of new Tory members with small majorities, we can pretty much guarantee they wont be pushing to go to 600 seats.

ydoethur

dr_spyn said:

The only magnificent Triumph Laura Pidcock will see on December 13th is a sports car.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198162065019547653

Is this the Herald of a meltdown?

Or will she just hit a Snag?

dr_spyn

DecrepiterJohnL said:

dr_spyn said:

Returned from local supermarket, the huge pile of Guardians with headlines about the NZ backpacker trial verdict. Nothing on Corbyn sitting on the Referendum Fence.

The front page on the BBC's newspaper roundup splashes your story: Corbyn neutral on Brexit. The supermarket might have got an earlier edition (or, less likely, a later one).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-50525474

Am surprised that the later edition hadn't turned up, given that London is only 130 miles away.

MarqueeMark

dr_spyn said:

The only magnificent Triumph Laura Pidcock will see on December 13th is a sports car.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198162065019547653

Think she may be Stag-gered?

OnlyLivingBoy

Casino_Royale said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.

I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.

DavidL

I agree with this thread header, not that this is going to happen but that it is much more likely than the market is indicating. So far the head to head and QT special has shown no change. Labour are drifting and well off the line of recovery they had in 2017. Labour's manifesto launch was a damp squib, there are still opportunities for Tory screw ups but they are getting fewer.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. W, kudos to Umunna for having the guts to walk out, instead of wibbling and then campaigning for Corbyn to be PM. Watson's failure to follow suit was a damned shame.

Flashy5

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.

I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.

Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.

squareroot2

MarqueeMark said:

dr_spyn said:

The only magnificent Triumph Laura Pidcock will see on December 13th is a sports car.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198162065019547653

Think she may be Stag-gered?

Will it Herald a new dawn?

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

dr_spyn said:

The only magnificent Triumph Laura Pidcock will see on December 13th is a sports car.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198162065019547653

Think she may be Stag-gered?

I don’t think she’s going to get Acclaim.

Flashy5

Barnesian said:

Odds on a Tory majority have lengthened from 1.53 to 1.57 i.e. 64% probability of any kind of Tory majority.

Currently 1.55

Dura_Ace

dr_spyn said:

The only magnificent Triumph Laura Pidcock will see on December 13th is a sports car.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1198162065019547653

Triumph never made a "magnificent" sports car did they? The GT6 was the only one I can think of that wasn't horribly underpowered and that wasn't exactly a burner compared to the competition. The Stag wasn't a sports car and hardly even qualified as car at all due the unlikelihood of it ever completing a journey under its own power.

SR20 or K24 swapped Spitfire would be fun until you died in a fireball.

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, kudos to Umunna for having the guts to walk out, instead of wibbling and then campaigning for Corbyn to be PM. Watson's failure to follow suit was a damned shame.

Tom Watson, notorious bully, proved to be a coward?

I’m shocked, I tell you. Shocked.

OnlyLivingBoy

RochdalePioneers said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.

Labour members have to take a hell of a lot of the blame. This election has shown just how poor a candidate Johnson is. But the lying cretin waving the Union Jack will always beat the lying cretin burning it.

Of course. The Labour Party membership is primarily to blame. I mean, fair enough, those Olympic Gold Medal standard idiots like Margaret Beckett and Frank Field who insisted on nominating the Marxist lunatic for leader in the first place started the ball rolling, but it was the members who threw their toys out of the pram after Cameron's 2015 election win and voted him in.

Frankly, if the Labour Party is buried so deep beneath a landslide that it takes a decade to dig it back out (and possibly a lot longer than that, should the cumulative effects of boundary reform and the possible secession of Scotland prove hard to overcome,) then they deserve everything they've got coming to them.

That said, I'm still far from convinced that the Revolutionary Comrades of Nicolás Maduro will get thrashed this time around, more's the pity. But I am one of life's natural pessimists. That way, I find that I'm less likely to feel disappointed when the worst inevitably happens.

Its my doing. I liked Ed Milliband a lot but got very frustrated by the party machine neutering his One Nation Labour strategy so that there was nothing in it. So I wanted someone with guts, saw it in Corbyn (who I knew bits about but not lots) and not only voted for him but campaigned for him.

It's my fault. I broke Labour.

I'm sure you meant well!

Don't blame me, I voted against him twice and was more or less happy with Miliband era Labour. If Johnson gets a big majority I think I will leave the country in spirit. I will continue to live here, bring up my family, go to work every day, but I will no longer invest any emotional capital in the country's fate. Let the Right own the country they will make in its own image - insular, selfish, angry and resentful. I can't be bothered caring any more.

ydoethur

Dura_Ace said:

.SR20 or K24 swapped Spitfire would be fun until you died in a fireball.

Sounds rather like the real thing.

Or the Labour Party, perhaps...

Brom

Barnesian said:

Odds on a Tory majority have lengthened from 1.53 to 1.57 i.e. 64% probability of any kind of Tory majority.

My updated model shows:

Con/Lab/LD
329/221/31

I am now assuming that in BXP seats (mainly non-Tory) 40% of current BXP supporters (who are now around 50/50 Con/Lab) switch to Tories and zero switch to Labour. As BXP (and Green) share reduce, the assumptions about their tactical voters diminishes in sensitivity.

Regional swings. My model uses a national swing. I use an average of independent sources for Scotland and Wales. If the swing to Con is higher in the North of England than the South then Tories will win more Lab seats in the North but lose more seats to LD in the South. The total of the regional swings must equal the national swing so there are off-sets. Tories could gain an extra 4 seats from Labour in the North and lose an extra 4 seats to LDs in the South. This would make:

329/217/35

Tactical assumptions: The main driver in the model is voter share in the polls. The most sensitive tactical assumption is how many LDs vote tactically for Labour in seats where LDs have no chance.

I assume that where the LDs have less than 25% of the Lab share, then 50% of LDs vote tactically for Lab. It's a crude attempt at modelling LD behaviour.

If 40% of LDs vote tactically for Lab you get:

334/212/35

If 60% of LDs vote tactically for Lab you get:

325/221/35

Summary:

My best guess on current polling and discounting local factors and knowledge is

Con 325- 334
Lab 212 - 221
LD 31-39

Current sells on spreads

Con 339
Lab 204
LD 29

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

I’m really sceptical about some of those seat changes. Also Betfair Tory odds now back to 1.55. It seems you have almost every Lib Dem target being won by them, at odds with the nation polling. The gains across the SW - North Devon, North Cornwall and Wells. Really?

A_View_From_Cumbria5

rcs1000 said:

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

rcs1000 said:

It's time for me to call the election:

The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.

The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.

And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.

Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.

Not far out in my view except I cannot see the Lib Dems exceeding their present 13 MPs - 6 or 7 more likely.

My view is that UNS is usually broadly right. And the LDs will have added c 7 points to their total from 2017, the conservatives will be roughly flat, while Labour will have lost 10 points or even a little more.

Now, there are libdem seats that are vulnerable: certainly North Norfolk, also Eastbourne, and perhaps Westmoreland too. You could also see the libdems drop a seat or two in Scotland.

But more likely, UNS is broadly right.

The Libdems made big gains in North Norfolk early this year in the locals. That doesn't mesh with them losing the seat. In Scotland, all the signs are that the libdems have gained slightly more than the SNP.

And there are seats like a Richmond Park, which are deepest Remainia, and where the conservative candidate is... Uninspiring.

Ultimately, the near doubling of the libdem vote share has to go somewhere. I think they are unlikely to end up down on the night.

Very constructive response and I concede I only see the LD campaign in Westmorland and Lonsdale and the wider Cumbria. BUT last time the LDs were able to say this is a safe LD seat - don't bother coming out to vote Tory. Very different now and Tim is known for disregarding the views of his electors - very different from 2 yrs ago. Again, it used to be said ( by the great Michael Jopling ) that if there was a Tory majority nationally then the Tory in W&L would get 50% of the vote and vice versa. In 2 of the last 3 elections Tim held on comfortably in W&L and the Jopling criterion was barely met nationally. But with a 1987 majority nationally the Jopling view says no way can W&L not go Tory. It is difficult to disagree - I think if the national situation stays the same James Airey will have a majority of 3,500 to 4,000.

IanB2

Here's an atypical Labour poster:

https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1196149767329472517/photo/1

Theuniondivvie

NorthCadboll said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.

Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.

Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!

The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.

Black_Rook

IanB2 said:

NorthCadboll said:

Remember I said at the start of the campaign the vote shares may end up something like Tory 40% Labour 25% LibDem 15% Green and Brexit 5% and SNP, Greens and PC the remainder. Well maybe it is take 2-4% from the LibDems and add them to the Tories. That would then be 1983 once again. It would mean abolition of the FT Act and moving to 600 seats so unlikely anything other than a Tory government until 2030 by which time I will have retired.

With lots of new Tory members with small majorities, we can pretty much guarantee they wont be pushing to go to 600 seats.

Yes, but that was Cameron's idea. Boris can simply push through another boundary review with 650 equal constituencies rather than 600. There's even time, one would've thought, to wait until the 2021 census returns are available before doing that. From the point of view of the Tories' security of tenure, the number of seats doesn't matter at all - it's the distribution that counts. Fewer under-sized urban and Welsh constituencies can only tilt the balance further in their favour, and make the average Tory seat marginally easier to hold.

Beyond that, if there is a landslide then I still wouldn't be wholly confident of the Conservatives winning the next election after that, given the unknowns surrounding Brexit and the fact that the world economy is arguably overdue for another downturn. But if there is a three-figure majority, and what's left of the Labour Party then reacts with a more violent fit of temper than the one that brought Corbyn to power in the first place, then the Tories' chances have to be reasonably good.

NickPalmer

IanB2 said:

Here's an atypical Labour poster:

https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1196149767329472517/photo/1

Rosena's got the most style of any candidate that I've seen - this is just fun, even if you're not into politics:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1197884965444366337

MarqueeMark

IanB2 said:

Here's an atypical Labour poster:

https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1196149767329472517/photo/1

Not as upset as Corbyn will be when he sees it luv......

RochdalePioneers

Question Time on catch up. Where is this No Swinson kicking? She's been asked the questions which needed asking on the obvious points and she's answering them honestly. This audience don't like it but my understanding is that the BBC stacked the audience based on MPs, so 2 LibDem supporters in there...

Barnesian

IanB2 said:

Barnesian said:

Odds on a Tory majority have lengthened from 1.53 to 1.57 i.e. 64% probability of any kind of Tory majority.

My updated model shows:

Con/Lab/LD
329/221/31

I am now assuming that in BXP seats (mainly non-Tory) 40% of current BXP supporters (who are now around 50/50 Con/Lab) switch to Tories and zero switch to Labour. As BXP (and Green) share reduce, the assumptions about their tactical voters diminishes in sensitivity.

Regional swings. My model uses a national swing. I use an average of independent sources for Scotland and Wales. If the swing to Con is higher in the North of England than the South then Tories will win more Lab seats in the North but lose more seats to LD in the South. The total of the regional swings must equal the national swing so there are off-sets. Tories could gain an extra 4 seats from Labour in the North and lose an extra 4 seats to LDs in the South. This would make:

329/217/35

Tactical assumptions: The main driver in the model is voter share in the polls. The most sensitive tactical assumption is how many LDs vote tactically for Labour in seats where LDs have no chance.

I assume that where the LDs have less than 25% of the Lab share, then 50% of LDs vote tactically for Lab. It's a crude attempt at modelling LD behaviour.

If 40% of LDs vote tactically for Lab you get:

334/212/35

If 60% of LDs vote tactically for Lab you get:

325/221/35

Summary:

My best guess on current polling and discounting local factors and knowledge is

Con 325- 334
Lab 212 - 221
LD 31-39

Current sells on spreads

Con 339
Lab 204
LD 29

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

What base are you using for modelling LD tactical voting?

I'd suggest that pretty much every LD willing to vote for Corbyn to keep the Tories out did so last time, and so maximum LD->Lab tactical voting is already in the base. This time they have better reasons for casting a LibDem/Remain Alliance vote and less good reasons for sticking with Corbyn. So we're looking at an unwind.

I'm assuming LDs are putting no effort into these seats. I'm assuming LDs in these seats, who are few in number, are mainly remainers will be more anti-Tory than anti-Labour recognising that Labour have no chance of a majority but they can reduce the Tory majority by one. Data is hard to find. It is a sensitive assumption. I'd be very surprised if there was an unwind.

If there is zero tactical voting by LDs in these seats then result is

349/196/35 a Tory majority of 48.

Fishing

Black_Rook said:

Beyond that, if there is a landslide then I still wouldn't be wholly confident of the Conservatives winning the next election after that, given the unknowns surrounding Brexit and the fact that the world economy is arguably overdue for another downturn. But if there is a three-figure majority, and what's left of the Labour Party then reacts with a more violent fit of temper than the one that brought Corbyn to power in the first place, then the Tories' chances have to be reasonably good.

Predicting the 2023/4/5 election when we can't even be sure of the result of the 2019 one is surely a mug's game. Fun and loads of people do it, but totally pointless.

After the 1992 election, the consensus was that Labour were screwed for the next decade. And around 2003, the same was true for the Conservatives. Also after 1945. I'm sure nobody on this site needs telling how those worked out.

Harold Wilson was a poor PM, but his famous saying that "a week is a long time in politics" almost makes up for some of the disasters he visited on the country.