Let us not talk landslides header, I dont want to contemplate any of these bozos with a huge majority.
This is a betting site. What you want to contemplate is the sort of thing informing too much commentary.
Yes, though the question of whether "Stop the landslide" will change some votes is relevant. Tbh I didn't find it so in 1983 when I was standing in Chelsea - people who liked Tories more than others continued to do so even if I warned that they'd be dangerous with a giant majority. That may be a bit different now, though, since so many people dislike all the parties, whereas in post-Falklands 1983 Thatcher had a lot of genuine support and some people who deplore Thatcherism now forget that they were quite keen at that stage.
What did help in 1983 to keep us above the Alliance (which strategically was absolutely crucial) was simply residual loyalty. As one wavering Labour voter said "Oh, all right. You don't stop supporting your football team when it's in danger of relegation, do you?"
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
After the election if the CWU have anything to do with it.
Royal Mail have won a High Court court injunction blocking a CWU strike before Christmas and can thus sack any CWU worker who goes on strike within the law
Given the overwhelming support the CWU got in the ballot, RM has won a short term battle but made its medium term task a lot more difficult. Hence their shares have tanked recently.
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
After the election if the CWU have anything to do with it.
Royal Mail have won a High Court court injunction blocking a CWU strike before Christmas and can thus sack any CWU worker who goes on strike within the law
Given the overwhelming support the CWU got in the ballot, RM has won a short term battle but made its medium term task a lot more difficult. Hence their shares have tanked recently.
It hasn't, if necessary it can sack the strikers and militant CWU posties and replace them with agency workers and if Boris wins I expect it will begin to do so.
I have noted the Orkney and Shetland question. The status is requires to truly screw matters is that of a British Overseas Territory (like Anguilla). My understanding is that a crown dependency status (like Jersey) would create an enclave status for the purpose of territorial waters, but that BOT status would give them greater access to territorial waters (and the oil/gas fields). Perhaps someone with greater knowledge than me could comment?
This is moot. It would be astonishing were the Northern Isles to attempt to secede.
In any event, the oilfields are not pivotal to the question of Scottish independence: the industry is in decline, and Scotland is perfectly capable of functioning as a reasonably well-to-do Western European state in any event.
The real question is, assuming any kind of Tory majority next month, whether or not there are enough previously pro-Union voters who are now willing to back independence in order to secure re-entry to the EU? This is the great imponderable of Indyref2: the numbers required would likely need to be in excess of the No campaign's winning margin in 2014, given that a meaningful proportion of the Scottish electorate voted both Yes *and* Leave (according to YouGov, of those Scots who voted in both referendums 14% were Yes and Leave,) and an unknown but almost certainly significant proportion of those will prefer autonomy within the UK to resumed EU membership. On the other hand, it's estimated that double the number (28%) voted No and Remain, but it is by no means certain that the numbers of pro-EU switchers to independence would outnumber those Eurosceptic voters going in the opposite direction.
Beyond that, to win independence the Scottish Government must also successfully sell to the electorate a new currency, the tax rises and spending cuts needed to fund the deficit that's currently covered by the Westminster block grant, years of Brexit-style negotiations with London and (in all likelihood) a hard border with England should Scotland return to the EU at the end of the process.
By pushing for Indyref2, the SNP is essentially betting the farm that an accumulation of Europhile anger and Tory rule at Westminster will be enough to overcome these obstacles and get them where they want to go. Now, Scotland is a wealthy, confident and capable polity, so all of this is doable. But it's not exactly a gimme.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
They didnt win more at the last election. I agree with your general view about what will happen with Sindy but you tend to get overexcited!
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
After the election if the CWU have anything to do with it.
Royal Mail have won a High Court court injunction blocking a CWU strike before Christmas and can thus sack any CWU worker who goes on strike within the law
Given the overwhelming support the CWU got in the ballot, RM has won a short term battle but made its medium term task a lot more difficult. Hence their shares have tanked recently.
I rarely use the royal mail and if they go on strike it will be a relief to see the junk mail disappear
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
It would take several years for Scotland to leave the UK. Even if it then applied for EU membership within a minute, it would take five years to process.
Give people some credit. Given the electoral system we only have two possible choices for Prime Minister. Terror of one doesn't necessarily imply enthusiasm for the other.
Neither does it imply the lack of it. There is much enthusiasm for Brexit and for Boris. The big win for both which is coming would not be possible otherwise. Brexit, right wing Tory majority government, PM Boris Johnson, this will be the clear choice of the country and so be it. Our system is known and well defined. You vote or you don't. If you do, you tick one box. Then we add them up, apply the rules, and get the outcome. All fine. No complaints here whatsoever. But those who voted for it should own their choice and stop deflecting.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
PS as any ful should kno, an enclave of an another country would have its territorial waters limited.
As any fool should know (and as I have already pointed out) this does not apply to the status of British Overseas Territory (as it is not, technically, an enclave of the UK but has territorial status in its own right. So Anguilla type status is the answer for Orkney and Shetland - not Jersey status.
However, you also ignore the key issue in enclave status if they did become a Crown dependency (like Jersey). A territory is only an enclave if completely surrounded by the territorial waters of another country. This would require the furthest outpost of the Orkney and Shetlands to be less than 200 miles from the Scottish mainland (or wherever territorial waters start, which seems to be the mainland for this purpose). The northernmost tip of Unst is very close to the 200 mile distance and I am sure would become an interesting issue.
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
Around half within 48 hours IIRC, 35% straggling in gradually thereafter to make up 85%, as you say. I don't know if most places have issued them already but if so, I'd think a fair chunk will have been sent before people digest the Tory manifesto. They presumably feel that's a good thing, in case people don't like something in it.
There's a growing trend for people to take them to the polling station on the day, now that you can. Some doubtless people who forgot to post it, or wanted to see the campaign out before deciding. There could be more this time with mistrust of the Xmas post. I suspect it's also a consequence of the parties strong arming their supporters into signing up for postal votes when many of them are quite happy voting in person.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
It would take several years for Scotland to leave the UK. Even if it then applied for EU membership within a minute, it would take five years to process.
A heartbeat compared to 300 years under the yoke
Would be ironic though if Scotland left the UK and joined the EU just as it became a federation.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
After the election if the CWU have anything to do with it.
Royal Mail have won a High Court court injunction blocking a CWU strike before Christmas and can thus sack any CWU worker who goes on strike within the law
Given the overwhelming support the CWU got in the ballot, RM has won a short term battle but made its medium term task a lot more difficult. Hence their shares have tanked recently.
It hasn't, if necessary it can sack the strikers and militant CWU posties and replace them with agency workers and if Boris wins I expect it will begin to do so
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
Don't blame me, I voted against him twice and was more or less happy with Miliband era Labour. If Johnson gets a big majority I think I will leave the country in spirit. I will continue to live here, bring up my family, go to work every day, but I will no longer invest any emotional capital in the country's fate. Let the Right own the country they will make in its own image - insular, selfish, angry and resentful. I can't be bothered caring any more."
I resigned not long after Corbyn became leader. He has been a monumental disaster for the party and the country and I don't think that the enormity of that hasn't been fully recognised yet.
Johnson has been given a free run because of our FPTP voting system.
I am pessimistic but more resigned the angry, I haven't voted in anything since 2016 because I don't much care who runs "Brexit Britain". As a country we have chosen to go down the Farage/UKIP path and it will not easily be reversed
The only glimmer of hope is that Johnson with a big majority could well be more of a liberal (London mayor era Johnson) than many of his supporters are expecting. The other silver lining is that when Labour get thrashed they turn to someone like Hilary Benn rather than anyone remotely associated with the disaster that it is Corbynism.
In betting terms my money went on a 1983 style result months ago, I know far too many ex-Labour voters who will not be going for Corbyn this time, far more so than 207 when any remainers gave him the benefit of the doubt. .
(PS Could someone post a brief description of what to do when a post is too long. I don't find the block quotes stuff easy and often get it wrong!)
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
It’s hardly utopia now - new hospitals that can’t open and others in special measures.
Away you halfwit, Scotland has the best figures for NHS in the UK, have you looked at the enquires into hundreds of unnecessary deaths in various English trusts. I see you are a new unionist troll, back under your rock where you belong.
A Tory landslide might be v good for democracy. It might force the Labour party to grt rid of iits really nasty people loke Milne Corbyn and Mcdonnel among others and move towards the centre They will never won win wiyh a hard keft manifesto.
It could just as easily push them further to the left.
Possibly. I'd like to think the one benefit of them being further behind in vote share would be a recognition that the party is not the people, that hate it or not the tories would be the most popular pan uk party , and that they need to address why, not pretend (as caroline Lucas types do) that the losers are more popular .
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
Oh god.
The Orkney keeps the oil card.
Such a classic. I missed it.
If Orkney votes to become an independent nation, seperate of Scotland and rUK they keep the oil as it will be in their territorial waters, they will be astronomically rich and alone. If Orkney decides to remain part of the UK then they are an island enclave, they get their 12 mile territorial waters and that's it.
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
After the election if the CWU have anything to do with it.
Royal Mail have won a High Court court injunction blocking a CWU strike before Christmas and can thus sack any CWU worker who goes on strike within the law
Given the overwhelming support the CWU got in the ballot, RM has won a short term battle but made its medium term task a lot more difficult. Hence their shares have tanked recently.
It hasn't, if necessary it can sack the strikers and militant CWU posties and replace them with agency workers and if Boris wins I expect it will begin to do so
You are such an idiot.
No you are, if Labour loses and the Tories win again we can finally complete the process Thatcher started of cleansing ourselves of militant trade unionists and get decent workers across industry
Is Corbyn trying to change the narrative with a sneaky reshuffle? From the Andrew Marr Show homepage: "Andrew Marr is joined by Jo Swinson, Liberal Democrat leader and Angela Rayner, shadow home secretary." https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000bqht I wonder what DA thinks......
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
PS as any ful should kno, an enclave of an another country would have its territorial waters limited.
As any fool should know (and as I have already pointed out) this does not apply to the status of British Overseas Territory (as it is not, technically, an enclave of the UK but has territorial status in its own right. So Anguilla type status is the answer for Orkney and Shetland - not Jersey status.
However, you also ignore the key issue in enclave status if they did become a Crown dependency (like Jersey). A territory is only an enclave if completely surrounded by the territorial waters of another country. This would require the furthest outpost of the Orkney and Shetlands to be less than 200 miles from the Scottish mainland (or wherever territorial waters start, which seems to be the mainland for this purpose). The northernmost tip of Unst is very close to the 200 mile distance and I am sure would become an interesting issue.
Skaw is 227 miles from Thurso by a very indirect route. I don’t think it would be meeting that criteria.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
I think it has resulted in a lot of expressions of indignation, and that being apalled at Brexit has become the politically correct thing to say. Whether in the sanctity of the polling booth people are actually keener to vote for more 'leaving things', I suppose we'll see. If the SNP underperform in this election it won't be because of Alex Salmond's alleged activities, it will be the public quietly warning Sturgeon off pursuing independence. They want a fiercely Scotland-first political party, and are probably right to do so, but not necessarily one that continually demands seperation from the UK.
On topic, Survation out today and taken yesterday and Thursday has an 8.5% swing from Labour to the Tories in the North West, above the national average of about 4%. That would be enough for the Tories to take Burnley where they need a 7.88% swing to win.
I have looked at the poll HY. Firstly where it says Tories down 8 labour down 9 in West Midlands I simply don’t believe it, I think Tories doing better in midlands at this election than that. They will go up in east and West Midlands not down. But where a party is going backwards in polls and rely on their win on another party going further back, surely there has to be room for movement between here and actual result, such as traditional supporters shy to admit what they are really going to do?
That's the SNP's main problem summarised in a tweet. If the Scottish Government could provide all those (very largely middle class) freebies, like relief from tuition fees, prescription charges and social care costs, *AND* balance the budget then the 2014 referendum would most SNIP
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.
The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
It would be a big surprise if the SNP were to more-or-less tread water as @rcs1000 suggests. In fact, if SLAB survive this with 3 or 4 of their little collection of MPs intact and SCON actually advance it'll be utterly astonishing.
As far as the remainder of that prediction goes, I wish I could be that optimistic about the prospects for Labour getting a shellacking, but I'm still very worried that a lot more of the automatons are going to end up obeying their homing signals and Labour will be back up to 35% by polling day. The Lib Dem seat prediction is roughly in accordance with my own expectations, but I fancy they might be down to about 12% nationwide.
It is garbage anyway, the deficit is due to the London UK budget , it si NOT a Scottish budget. If Scotland was independent and was not lumbered with all the dross of Trident , subsiding London infrastructure, military spending , etc , etc , etc it would not have a deficit anywhere near what the UK fake numbers claim it is. The tame medias and state propaganda unit just feed out scare stories and the mugs are taken in. Given the worst pensions and living standards in Europe is what they have now , how do these idiots think it would be any worse outside the UK. Brainwashed morons caused the failure in 2014. There will be SNP gains this time and it is only a matter of time till next referendum. Despite sad arsehole Scottish exports like Carlotta and her ilk badmouthing Scotland at every cut and turn.
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
That's the SNP's main problem summarised in a tweet. If the Scottish Government could provide all those (very largely middle class) freebies, like relief from tuition fees, prescription charges and social care costs, *AND* balance the budget then the 2014 referendum would most SNIP
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.
The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
It would be a big surprise if the SNP were to more-or-less tread water as @rcs1000 suggests. In fact, if SLAB survive this with 3 or 4 of their little collection of MPs intact and SCON actually advance it'll be utterly astonishing.
As far as the remainder of that prediction goes, I wish I could be that optimistic about the prospects for Labour getting a shellacking, but I'm still very worried that a lot more of the automatons are going to end up obeying their homing signals and Labour will be back up to 35% by polling day. The Lib Dem seat prediction is roughly in accordance with my own expectations, but I fancy they might be down to about 12% nationwide.
It is garbage anyway, the deficit is due to the London UK budget , it si NOT a Scottish budget. If Scotland was independent and was not lumbered with all the dross of Trident , subsiding London infrastructure, military spending , etc , etc , etc it would not have a deficit anywhere near what the UK fake numbers claim it is. The tame medias and state propaganda unit just feed out scare stories and the mugs are taken in. Given the worst pensions and living standards in Europe is what they have now , how do these idiots think it would be any worse outside the UK. Brainwashed morons caused the failure in 2014. There will be SNP gains this time and it is only a matter of time till next referendum. Despite sad arsehole Scottish exports like Carlotta and her ilk badmouthing Scotland at every cut and turn.
Let us not talk landslides header, I dont want to contemplate any of these bozos with a huge majority.
This is a betting site. What you want to contemplate is the sort of thing informing too much commentary.
Yes, though the question of whether "Stop the landslide" will change some votes is relevant. Tbh I didn't find it so in 1983 when I was standing in Chelsea - people who liked Tories more than others continued to do so even if I warned that they'd be dangerous with a giant majority. That may be a bit different now, though, since so many people dislike all the parties, whereas in post-Falklands 1983 Thatcher had a lot of genuine support and some people who deplore Thatcherism now forget that they were quite keen at that stage.
What did help in 1983 to keep us above the Alliance (which strategically was absolutely crucial) was simply residual loyalty. As one wavering Labour voter said "Oh, all right. You don't stop supporting your football team when it's in danger of relegation, do you?"
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
Even if the audience is split evenly - the issue is some people may be more vocal than others.
And any Tory audience members may well tend towards an older demographic who may be both quieter and more deferential than the younger members.
Breaking: I see the BBC has confirmed the QT audience was weighted by the number of current MPs - so the LibDems actually had hardly any supporters in the room.
Do you have a source for that? There seemed to be plenty of Scots Nats in the audience.
The Nats explained by the SNPs tranche of MPs.
Although at first sight it seems an odd decision, it makes sense for the BBC. They don't have to worry about polls and the potential arguments about when and which to choose. They can ignore the BXP and don't have to go searching for a slug of UKIP voters. And the Tory/Labour shares are roughly in balance.
Hard to believe the BBC were fair to the SNP, if so it is a miracle.
On topic, Survation out today and taken yesterday and Thursday has an 8.5% swing from Labour to the Tories in the North West, above the national average of about 4%. That would be enough for the Tories to take Burnley where they need a 7.88% swing to win.
I have looked at the poll HY. Firstly where it says Tories down 8 labour down 9 in West Midlands I simply don’t believe it, I think Tories doing better in midlands at this election than that. They will go up in east and West Midlands not down. But where a party is going backwards in polls and rely on their win on another party going further back, surely there has to be room for movement between here and actual result, such as traditional supporters shy to admit what they are really going to do?
Not really, given Corbyn confirmed he would be neutral on Brexit last night Labour will keep shedding votes to the Brexit Party and the LDs.
Plus the Tory voteshare is up on 2017 in the Northwest at least on the poll anyway
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
PS as any ful should kno, an enclave of an another country would have its territorial waters limited.
As any fool should know (and as I have already pointed out) this does not apply to the status of British Overseas Territory (as it is not, technically, an enclave of the UK but has territorial status in its own right. So Anguilla type status is the answer for Orkney and Shetland - not Jersey status.
However, you also ignore the key issue in enclave status if they did become a Crown dependency (like Jersey). A territory is only an enclave if completely surrounded by the territorial waters of another country. This would require the furthest outpost of the Orkney and Shetlands to be less than 200 miles from the Scottish mainland (or wherever territorial waters start, which seems to be the mainland for this purpose). The northernmost tip of Unst is very close to the 200 mile distance and I am sure would become an interesting issue.
Skaw is 227 miles from Thurso by a very indirect route. I don’t think it would be meeting that criteria.
Neither do I, but it is close enough to be interesting and, of course, Skaw is still a few miles short of the northern limits of the Shetlands due to the islets off the northern coast of Unst. However, as I say, the answer if there is a demand for independence from Scotland, is British Overseas Territory staus rather than Crown Dependency. My personal view is this is all theoretical, but it seems to wind up the Irn Bru addicts and so has merit as a talking point.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
You really are a zoomer. Everyone knows the 2015 vote was down to special circumstances. Look at every other vote and they keep getting more and more popular thanks to Tories like you and the buffoon in Downing street. We don't want to go back to Charles Dickens.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
I think there are people who like independence more than the SNP, probably a growing number. Presumably there is polling on this.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
It’s hardly utopia now - new hospitals that can’t open and others in special measures.
Away you halfwit, Scotland has the best figures for NHS in the UK, have you looked at the enquires into hundreds of unnecessary deaths in various English trusts. I see you are a new unionist troll, back under your rock where you belong.
It's our old pal TGOHF. The seething bitterness about a country in which he doesn't live is the giveaway.
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
Even if the audience is split evenly - the issue is some people may be more vocal than others.
And any Tory audience members may well tend towards an older demographic who may be both quieter and more deferential than the younger members.
Ha Ha Ha Ha , it was because it was psoh Tories your Honour , honest , those noisy peasants from the other parties were riff raff shouty sorts. In my experience it is the Tories that have the loud shouty mouths.
Massive surge in voter registration yesterday . Over 300,000 . Over two thirds of that was people under 34.
Is that unusual at all though? Younger people are less likely to have been registered already I'd guess so would disproportionately make up numbers of new registrations.
So is it the incredible story you seem to think it is? Do we have comparisons with past elections?
Four days before the deadline for postal voting in 2017 and 2015, ~105k registered. Yesterday's 308 k total is, therefore, apparently very high, and daily totals have been 2-3 times the equivalent days for about the past week. The 60-70 under 35 %ageis about the same in all three years.
That's the SNP's main problem summarised in a tweet. If the Scottish Government could provide all those (very largely middle class) freebies, like relief from tuition fees, prescription charges and social care costs, *AND* balance the budget then the 2014 referendum would most SNIP
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.
The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
It would be a big surprise if the SNP were to more-or-less tread water as @rcs1000 suggests. In fact, if SLAB survive this with 3 or 4 of their little collection of MPs intact and SCON actually advance it'll be utterly astonishing.
As far as the remainder of that prediction goes, I wish I could be that optimistic about the prospects for Labour getting a shellacking, but I'm still very worried that a lot more of the automatons are going to end up obeying their homing signals and Labour will be back up to 35% by polling day. The Lib Dem seat prediction is roughly in accordance with my own expectations, but I fancy they might be down to about 12% nationwide.
It is garbage anyway, the deficit is due to the London UK budget , it si NOT a Scottish budget. If Scotland was independent and was not lumbered with all the dross of Trident , subsiding London infrastructure, military spending , etc , etc , etc it would not have a deficit anywhere near what the UK fake numbers claim it is. The tame medias and state propaganda unit just feed out scare stories and the mugs are taken in. Given the worst pensions and living standards in Europe is what they have now , how do these idiots think it would be any worse outside the UK. Brainwashed morons caused the failure in 2014. There will be SNP gains this time and it is only a matter of time till next referendum. Despite sad arsehole Scottish exports like Carlotta and her ilk badmouthing Scotland at every cut and turn.
Let us not talk landslides header, I dont want to contemplate any of these bozos with a huge majority.
This is a betting site. What you want to contemplate is the sort of thing informing too much commentary.
Yes, though the question of whether "Stop the landslide" will change some votes is relevant. Tbh I didn't find it so in 1983 when I was standing in Chelsea - people who liked Tories more than others continued to do so even if I warned that they'd be dangerous with a giant majority. That may be a bit different now, though, since so many people dislike all the parties, whereas in post-Falklands 1983 Thatcher had a lot of genuine support and some people who deplore Thatcherism now forget that they were quite keen at that stage.
What did help in 1983 to keep us above the Alliance (which strategically was absolutely crucial) was simply residual loyalty. As one wavering Labour voter said "Oh, all right. You don't stop supporting your football team when it's in danger of relegation, do you?"
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
I think there are people who like independence more than the SNP, probably a growing number. Presumably there is polling on this.
I have looked at the poll HY. Firstly where it says Tories down 8 labour down 9 in West Midlands I simply don’t believe it, I think Tories doing better in midlands at this election than that. They will go up in east and West Midlands not down. But where a party is going backwards in polls and rely on their win on another party going further back, surely there has to be room for movement between here and actual result, such as traditional supporters shy to admit what they are really going to do?
Not really, given Corbyn confirmed he would be neutral on Brexit last night Labour will keep shedding votes to the Brexit Party and the LDs.
Plus the Tory voteshare is up on 2017 in the Northwest at least on the poll anyway
Yes +1!
Okay I have put the things that can still change the Tory win result into four categories. 1. Polls are telling us brex breaks 3:1 Tory and Labour, thats right isn't it? so if in absence of brex its breaks that way, how come it only mops up labour in constituency's with 1 labour and two torys standing. Added to that How many brexit candidates angry at stood down standing as indies and how many UKIP candidates being fielded? how many votes will they get if BREX not standing? 2. all we have so far is polls and a lot of excited Tories saying its different this time. We don't have the final result yet, in the last week the gap can narrow, yet again a youth quake could be disbelieved by pollsters, Labour don't even need to close it totally to well hang next parliament. 3. we can’t know degree Tory share creates a lot of near misses and Lab Libdem TV create a lot of narrow hits. 4. the campaign itself, does it match what the Tories are polling, and does it matter? on the hustings and in the debates it feels allsquare. this is the most Union Baron labour manifesto probably ever, it would be regressive if implemented but it doesn't mean its row of cute owls winking at the voter not going to work, let’s be honest as we are not standing voters can be stupid when free things dangled in front of them. Tory attacks seem every bit as personal as all the last three election, and it wastes their time talking positively, but so far doesn't feel nearly as effective as the job done on Miliband. The side of that bus stalks this Tory campaign, taking credibility from the attacks. And I don't think leaving the manifesto so late is good for the Tories, the attacks on it could be freshest come polling day.
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
Even if the audience is split evenly - the issue is some people may be more vocal than others.
And any Tory audience members may well tend towards an older demographic who may be both quieter and more deferential than the younger members.
Ha Ha Ha Ha , it was because it was psoh Tories your Honour , honest , those noisy peasants from the other parties were riff raff shouty sorts. In my experience it is the Tories that have the loud shouty mouths.
Calm down Malcolm. We don't want anything to happen with your blood pressure; not with those Glasgow hospitals in special measures.
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
Good post
G, don't see anything good in it , just a bitter twisted Tory upset that people knew Boris was a lying toerag and told him so. It was very balanced in my opinion, Boris trying to pretend he was honest, is it any wonder they were laughing.
At least she is loud and proud about it...Tom Brake in Car and Wallington isnt even mentioning Brexit because he is scared about leave voters who voted for him last time being scared off..and he is the lib Dem remainer in Chief
Remain is not really an option anymore, is it? So what's the point of such a poster? Even if Labour win and there’s a referendum on their new deal, who’s going to campaign for Remain? The Lib Dems: yes. But not the Labour leadership and not the Tories and not Farage and co. So why would Remain be anymore successful than last time?
I think that the flaw in that reasoning is having pretty much the entire political establishment helping Remain last time....didn’t.
That's the SNP's main problem summarised in a tweet. If the Scottish Government could provide all those (very largely middle class) freebies, like relief from tuition fees, prescription charges and social care costs, *AND* balance the budget then the 2014 referendum would most SNIP
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seat
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
It would be a big surprise if the SNP were to more-or-less tread water as @rcs1000 suggests. In fact, if SLAB survive this with 3 or 4 of their little collection of MPs intact and SCON actually advance it'll be utterly astonishing.
As far as the remainder of that prediction goes, I wish I could be that optimistic about the prospects for Labour getting a shellacking, but I'm still very worried that a lot more of the automatons are going to end up obeying their homing signals and Labour will be back up to 35% by polling day. The Lib Dem seat prediction is roughly in accordance with my own expectations, but I fancy they might be down to about 12% nationwide.
It is garbage anyway, the deficit is due to the London UK budget , it si NOT a Scottish budget. If Scotland was independent and was not lumbered with all the dross of Trident , subsiding London infrastructure, military spending , etc , etc , etc it would not have a deficit anywhere near what the UK fake numbers claim it is. The tame medias and state propaganda unit just feed out scare stories and the mugs are taken in. Given the worst pensions and living standards in Europe is what they have now , how do these idiots think it would be any worse outside the UK. Brainwashed morons caused the failure in 2014. There will be SNP gains this time and it is only a matter of time till next referendum. Despite sad arsehole Scottish exports like Carlotta and her ilk badmouthing Scotland at every cut and turn.
At least she is loud and proud about it...Tom Brake in Car and Wallington isnt even mentioning Brexit because he is scared about leave voters who voted for him last time being scared off..and he is the lib Dem remainer in Chief
Remain is not really an option anymore, is it? So what's the point of such a poster? Even if Labour win and there’s a referendum on their new deal, who’s going to campaign for Remain? The Lib Dems: yes. But not the Labour leadership and not the Tories and not Farage and co. So why would Remain be anymore successful than last time?
I think that the flaw in that reasoning is having pretty much the entire political establishment helping Remain last time....didn’t.
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
Good post
G, don't see anything good in it , just a bitter twisted Tory upset that people knew Boris was a lying toerag and told him so. It was very balanced in my opinion, Boris trying to pretend he was honest, is it any wonder they were laughing.
In stark contrast to how the endless news vox popping works it was nice to hear what people under 50 or working in public sector are thinking.
A Tory landslide might be v good for democracy. It might force the Labour party to grt rid of iits really nasty people loke Milne Corbyn and Mcdonnel among others and move towards the centre They will never won win wiyh a hard keft manifesto.
It could just as easily push them further to the left.
Let's try out my one size fits all response to anything concerning labour
That's the SNP's main problem summarised in a tweet. If the Scottish Government could provide all those (very largely middle class) freebies, like relief from tuition fees, prescription charges and social care costs, *AND* balance the budget then the 2014 referendum would most SNIP
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seat
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
It would be a big surprise if the SNP were to more-or-less tread water as @rcs1000 suggests. In fact, if SLAB survive this with 3 or 4 of their little collection of MPs intact and SCON actually advance it'll be utterly astonishing.
As far as the remainder of that prediction goes, I wish I could be that optimistic about the prospects for Labour getting a shellacking, but I'm still very worried that a lot more of the automatons are going to end up obeying their homing signals and Labour will be back up to 35% by polling day. The Lib Dem seat prediction is roughly in accordance with my own expectations, but I fancy they might be down to about 12% nationwide.
It is garbage anyway, the deficit is due to the London UK budget , it si NOT a Scottish budget. If Scotland was independent and was not lumbered with all the dross of Trident , subsiding London infrastructure, military spending , etc , etc , etc it would not have a deficit anywhere near what the UK fake numbers claim it is. The tame medias and state propaganda unit just feed out scare stories and the mugs are taken in. Given the worst pensions and living standards in Europe is what they have now , how do these idiots think it would be any worse outside the UK. Brainwashed morons caused the failure in 2014. There will be SNP gains this time and it is only a matter of time till next referendum. Despite sad arsehole Scottish exports like Carlotta and her ilk badmouthing Scotland at every cut and turn.
Morning Malc. Any turnips left?
They all seem to be on here today
Spreading swede ness and light?
LOL, nice one
Neeps.
This punning contest seems to have got mangold somewhere.
Thanks. But doesn’t that approach come with risks? If there is a minority government there seems a real risk of another election very soon. If Corbyn is still leading in that...
He's fought his last GE. Of this I am sure. If another one is in the offing the party will get the leader change done in time.
At least she is loud and proud about it...Tom Brake in Car and Wallington isnt even mentioning Brexit because he is scared about leave voters who voted for him last time being scared off..and he is the lib Dem remainer in Chief
Remain is not really an option anymore, is it? So what's the point of such a poster? Even if Labour win and there’s a referendum on their new deal, who’s going to campaign for Remain? The Lib Dems: yes. But not the Labour leadership and not the Tories and not Farage and co. So why would Remain be anymore successful than last time?
I think that the flaw in that reasoning is having pretty much the entire political establishment helping Remain last time....didn’t.
And the Tories and BP really wouldn't be campaigning for BINO vs remain - they're both be obliged to say the whole thing was a disgraceful farce and should be abstained from.
Meanwhile remainers would turn out and you'd see a very comfortable remain win.
On topic, Survation out today and taken yesterday and Thursday has an 8.5% swing from Labour to the Tories in the North West, above the national average of about 4%. That would be enough for the Tories to take Burnley where they need a 7.88% swing to win.
I have looked at the poll HY. Firstly where it says Tories down 8 labour down 9 in West Midlands I simply don’t believe it, I think Tories doing better in midlands at this election than that. They will go up in east and West Midlands not down. But where a party is going backwards in polls and rely on their win on another party going further back, surely there has to be room for movement between here and actual result, such as traditional supporters shy to admit what they are really going to do?
Interesting poll, since it's post-manifesto and may give a clue to what to expect from tonight's polls. I wouldn't get too hung up on the regional swings (the phrase "and roundabouts" sums it up) but this suggests a general swing of 6.5% Lab-Con and 5% Con-LD. If that was the national picture, with no tactical voting, we'd get Con 40 Lab 29 LD 16. It's a bad poll for Labour (though the 30-46 rating for Corbyn vs Johnson as Best PM is the best for a while), but quite good for the LDs, who will probably get a larger swing in areas outside this North/Midlands sample.
As the article says, these figures suggest 30 Tory gains from Labour here. Add another 20 elsewhere but assume 20 LD/SNP gains from Con and you end up with the 30ish Tory majority that a lot of us have been predicting. Obviously all subject to change and in particular to tactical voting.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Morning G, first I have heard of it but would imagine it is speculation that she will get a right good doing over the Salmond stitch up , which given the trial in March will come out about that time. Given the way the civil case collapsed and the amount of costs awarded it did not show government processes in a good light. I think mere speculation at this point.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
I'd suggest more people in England now want to end the UK. After England is the country that does not have a parliament and has been forced to remain in the EU against the majority choice of both its voters & MP's.
So, 'neutral' Doesn't that just mean leavers say 'no thanks, I dont want another referendum' and remainers say 'oh, i thought you were on our side?' And the EU say 'you dont support staying, you want a credible deal despite 2 already being offered but you also want to reform us? Yeah, you're not getting a good deal' Its utterly bizarre
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
It’s hardly utopia now - new hospitals that can’t open and others in special measures.
Away you halfwit, Scotland has the best figures for NHS in the UK, have you looked at the enquires into hundreds of unnecessary deaths in various English trusts. I see you are a new unionist troll, back under your rock where you belong.
It's our old pal TGOHF. The seething bitterness about a country in which he doesn't live is the giveaway.
Even better WOS has blocked me on twitter for daring to critique his opinion on a tweet. He has really lost the plot.
Johnson could use a landslide because he is not popular enough to push an agenda through a small majority in Parliament on his own, unlike say David Cameron's coalition ministry. Maybe he doesn't care about that, of course. But once Corbyn is off, you could be looking into a 1994-like popularity gap and backbenchers expecting no future unwilling to compromise. Landslides insulate.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
There are a few hurdles before Scottish rejoin, but Spanish veto wont be one of them. Why do Brexiters always seem mistakenly to think someone in the EU is going to play a veto?
We are talking deranged frothing unionists here
Scotland have forced England to remain in the EU,. Why wouldn't England veto Scotland joining in response.
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
Even if the audience is split evenly - the issue is some people may be more vocal than others.
And any Tory audience members may well tend towards an older demographic who may be both quieter and more deferential than the younger members.
Ha Ha Ha Ha , it was because it was psoh Tories your Honour , honest , those noisy peasants from the other parties were riff raff shouty sorts. In my experience it is the Tories that have the loud shouty mouths.
Calm down Malcolm. We don't want anything to happen with your blood pressure; not with those Glasgow hospitals in special measures.
LOL, my blood pressure is just dandy and I live 30 miles away from Glasgow, plus the one with issues is the childrens hospital and so am hopefully safe. News that they are in special measures, one in Glasgow had an issue some time ago and the other is in Edinburgh an not opened yet, you are being taken in by Tory fake news it seems.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
It’s hardly utopia now - new hospitals that can’t open and others in special measures.
Away you halfwit, Scotland has the best figures for NHS in the UK, have you looked at the enquires into hundreds of unnecessary deaths in various English trusts. I see you are a new unionist troll, back under your rock where you belong.
It's our old pal TGOHF. The seething bitterness about a country in which he doesn't live is the giveaway.
Even better WOS has blocked me on twitter for daring to critique his opinion on a tweet. He has really lost the plot.
Impressively shit from the Corbyn Jnr...not even managing to make a business out of one of the hottest products at the moment even when located in an area that is interested in.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
I think there are people who like independence more than the SNP, probably a growing number. Presumably there is polling on this.
I find that extremely unlikely.
I would agree with poster and also that I doubt there is any polling on it. I vote SNP for two reasons, main one is independence and fact that there is absolutely no sane opposition you could vote for otherwise. They would have no guarantee of my vote after independence if a decent centre right opposition party emerged. I much preferred Alex Salmond's SNP.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Morning G, first I have heard of it but would imagine it is speculation that she will get a right good doing over the Salmond stitch up , which given the trial in March will come out about that time. Given the way the civil case collapsed and the amount of costs awarded it did not show government processes in a good light. I think mere speculation at this point.
Thanks Malc. It was hinted at on here yesterday and I could not see any reason for her to stand down before the 2021 Holyrood elections other than issues coming out of the Salmond case next March. I make no comment on the allegations against Salmond but it will be a huge news story dominating the media throughout March, especially in Scotland
Massive surge in voter registration yesterday . Over 300,000 . Over two thirds of that was people under 34.
Is that unusual at all though? Younger people are less likely to have been registered already I'd guess so would disproportionately make up numbers of new registrations.
So is it the incredible story you seem to think it is? Do we have comparisons with past elections?
Four days before the deadline for postal voting in 2017 and 2015, ~105k registered. Yesterday's 308 k total is, therefore, apparently very high, and daily totals have been 2-3 times the equivalent days for about the past week. The 60-70 under 35 %ageis about the same in all three years.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
I'd suggest more people in England now want to end the UK. After England is the country that does not have a parliament and has been forced to remain in the EU against the majority choice of both its voters & MP's.
England parliament is de facto Westminster, EVEL and all that. Every vote in Westminster is for England and based on that the devolved either get some crumbs or get told what they are doing , so absolute bollox. Given the whining and gnashing of teeth against giving Scotland a democratic vote your point does seem to be absolutely wrong.
I have looked at the poll HY. Firstly where it says Tories down ovement between here and actual result, such as traditional supporters shy to admit what they are really going to do?
Not really, given Corbyn confirmed he would be neutral on Brexit last night Labour will keep shedding votes to the Brexit Party and the LDs.
Plus the Tory voteshare is up on 2017 in the Northwest at least on the poll anyway
Yes +1!
Okay I have put the things that can still change the Tory win result into four categories. 1. Polls are telling us brex breaks 3:1 Tory and Labour, thats right isn't it? so if in absence of brex its breaks that way, how come it only mops up labour in constituency's with 1 labour and two torys standing. Added to that How many brexit candidates angry at stood down standing as indies and how many UKIP candidates being fielded? how many votes will they get if BREX not standing? 2. all we have so far is polls and a lot of excited Tories saying its different this time. We don't have the final result yet, in the last week the gap can narrow, yet again a youth quake could be disbelieved by pollsters, Labour don't even need to close it totally to well hang next parliament. 3. we can’t know degree Tory share creates a lot of near misses and Lab Libdem TV create a lot of narrow hits. 4. the campaign itself, does it match what the Tories are polling, and does it matter? on the hustings and in the debates it feels allsquare. this is the most Union Baron labour manifesto probably ever, it would be regressive if implemented but it doesn't mean its row of cute owls winking at the voter not going to work, let’s be honest as we are not standing voters can be stupid when free things dangled in front of them. Tory attacks seem every bit as personal as all the last three election, and it wastes their time talking positively, but so far doesn't feel nearly as effective as the job done on Miliband. The side of that bus stalks this Tory campaign, taking credibility from the attacks. And I don't think leaving the manifesto so late is good for the Tories, the attacks on it could be freshest come polling day.
Survation came after the first debate and after the Labour manifesto launch, Labour have got no significant bounce unlike 2017 and the Tories are running a more populist campaign than 2017
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
There are a few hurdles before Scottish rejoin, but Spanish veto wont be one of them. Why do Brexiters always seem mistakenly to think someone in the EU is going to play a veto?
We are talking deranged frothing unionists here
Scotland have forced England to remain in the EU,. Why wouldn't England veto Scotland joining in response.
At least she is loud and proud about it...Tom Brake in Car and Wallington isnt even mentioning Brexit because he is scared about leave voters who voted for him last time being scared off..and he is the lib Dem remainer in Chief
Remain is not really an option anymore, is it? So what's the point of such a poster? Even if Labour win and there’s a referendum on their new deal, who’s going to campaign for Remain? The Lib Dems: yes. But not the Labour leadership and not the Tories and not Farage and co. So why would Remain be anymore successful than last time?
I think that the flaw in that reasoning is having pretty much the entire political establishment helping Remain last time....didn’t.
For those who are in favour of membership of the E.U. the argument is going to be about rejoining rather than remaining. That is a very different sort of campaign. Trying to rerun the Remain campaign but do it better this time just won’t cut it, IMO.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
It’s hardly utopia now - new hospitals that can’t open and others in special measures.
Away you halfwit, Scotland has the best figures for NHS in the UK, have you looked at the enquires into hundreds of unnecessary deaths in various English trusts. I see you are a new unionist troll, back under your rock where you belong.
It's our old pal TGOHF. The seething bitterness about a country in which he doesn't live is the giveaway.
Even better WOS has blocked me on twitter for daring to critique his opinion on a tweet. He has really lost the plot.
He does seem to have gone off the deep end lately. Will be interested to see what the next WoS traffic numbers say (if RevStu releases them).
My postal vote arrived today. Shall I wait for the Tory manifesto before deciding?
Nah.
The non-arrival of the Conservative manifesto (last week, this weekend, next week) must be intentional, but why? What is CCHQ up to?
It's precisely because they're scared of fracking it all up again with a botched manifest launch, and they want the postal votes in the bag before they risk it.
I tend to think that with postal voting becoming such an important part of the election that publication of manifestos should somehow be made compulsory before postal votes are sent out.
How can anyone claim a mandate for a manifesto that was not published before people voted?
This is not simply a narrow point of election campaigns, it has an important consequence for the Parliament Act and forcing legislation through the Lords on the basis of the democratic mandate for it.
It shouldn't come as much surprise from the people who prorogued Parliament to evade Parliamentary scrutiny, that they are now delaying publication of their manifesto to avoid scrutiny from the voters, but it is cruel and unusual punishment for the informal rules of our constitution. It's just not cricket.
Can you imagine what their response would be were a future Tony Blair figure do the same for the red/yellow team? They'd go all Mountbatten on their arse. Actions like this poison the democratic well for decades. Johnson has taken us several significant steps down a very dangerous road.
Re voter registration. What it never tells us if how many of those people were already registered.
As I stated before, many universities are now running automated voter registration upon starting a new academic year. It has now transitioned from just those in uni accommodation to all students in many cases. Those systems don't distinguish between who is or isn't already registered, it simply bulk forwards all the details to the local council to make applications.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
I'd suggest more people in England now want to end the UK. After England is the country that does not have a parliament and has been forced to remain in the EU against the majority choice of both its voters & MP's.
Britain Trump disagrees.
“I’m not convinced there is a case for an England-only parliament,” he said in comments reported by the National. “We have an England-only parliament. It’s Westminster. It’s been there for a long time. I’m not disposed to create another parliament.”
So, 'neutral' Doesn't that just mean leavers say 'no thanks, I dont want another referendum' and remainers say 'oh, i thought you were on our side?' And the EU say 'you dont support staying, you want a credible deal despite 2 already being offered but you also want to reform us? Yeah, you're not getting a good deal' Its utterly bizarre
I can see the potential appeal of a neutral stance, but it clearly is not a principled one since he didn't stay neutral in the first referendum, officially he was for Remain. So since it is not a principled stance about letting the people decide it is a calculated one, and the calculation seems to be to not take a view in order to avoid pissing people off.
The Met Office have just now issued yellow weather warnings for rain that cover the south west of England for each day of the next five days, Saturday-Wednesday. It's quite extraordinary.
So, 'neutral' Doesn't that just mean leavers say 'no thanks, I dont want another referendum' and remainers say 'oh, i thought you were on our side?' And the EU say 'you dont support staying, you want a credible deal despite 2 already being offered but you also want to reform us? Yeah, you're not getting a good deal' Its utterly bizarre
I can see the potential appeal of a neutral stance, but it clearly is not a principled one since he didn't stay neutral in the first referendum, officially he was for Remain. So since it is not a principled stance about letting the people decide it is a calculated one, and the calculation seems to be to not take a view in order to avoid pissing people off.
Is that what people want though? Given millions voted online to revoke / 2nd referendum and are very vocal about wanting to Remain and clearly since Boris went die in a ditch about leaving the Tory polling has risen, suggests the public wants a stance.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Not been denied - nor that the leader of Glasgow council is being shown the door for bringing embarrassment to the party - as soon as the GE is out of the way.
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
It was more like a meeting of the socialist workers party! I'm not sure there was actually one Conservative voter there!
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Not been denied - nor that the leader of Glasgow council is being shown the door for bringing embarrassment to the party - as soon as the GE is out of the way.
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
Even if the audience is split evenly - the issue is some people may be more vocal than others.
And any Tory audience members may well tend towards an older demographic who may be both quieter and more deferential than the younger members.
Ha Ha Ha Ha , it was because it was psoh Tories your Honour , honest , those noisy peasants from the other parties were riff raff shouty sorts. In my experience it is the Tories that have the loud shouty mouths.
Calm down Malcolm. We don't want anything to happen with your blood pressure; not with those Glasgow hospitals in special measures.
LOL, my blood pressure is just dandy and I live 30 miles away from Glasgow, plus the one with issues is the childrens hospital and so am hopefully safe. News that they are in special measures, one in Glasgow had an issue some time ago and the other is in Edinburgh an not opened yet, you are being taken in by Tory fake news it seems.
On topic, Survation out today and taken yesterday and Thursday has an 8.5% swing from Labour to the Tories in the North West, above the national average of about 4%. That would be enough for the Tories to take Burnley where they need a 7.88% swing to win.
I have looked at the poll HY. Firstly where it says Tories down 8 labour down 9 in West Midlands I simply don’t believe it, I think Tories doing better in midlands at this election than that. They will go up in east and West Midlands not down. But where a party is going backwards in polls and rely on their win on another party going further back, surely there has to be room for movement between here and actual result, such as traditional supporters shy to admit what they are really going to do?
I think it's better to take that poll as a whole and not divide it by the 5 regions. Hoe many seats to the tories gain then?
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
It was more like a meeting of the socialist workers party! I'm not sure there was actually one Conservative voter there!
Just watched it. Probably 2 Tories, beardy bloke and Ruth Smeeth question bloke. Full of Labour Momentum types with "questions" that were mini statements of Labour policy.
Boris did very well with such a hostile crowd & Bruce's interuptions.
Worst case impact on Tory vote will be zero impact. Corbyn by contrast did provide a couple of soundbites that are already being used against him.
Finishing up Question Time. Johnson did rather well despite the audience, as did Swinson
I agree. And I'm no fan of Swinson.
I thought Jo Swinson's attacks bordered on abuse and at one time it appeared she was near tears but she did very well to withstand the onslaught
However, she is the architect of her own downfall by agreeing to campaign to revoke the democratic vote and by claiming she could be PM
Watching the media this morning Corbyn is coming under serious attack over his neutral stance and CCHQ must be delighted yesterday's QT has put Corbyn and Brexit at the centre of the news cycle this weekend
On topic, Survation out today and taken yesterday and Thursday has an 8.5% swing from Labour to the Tories in the North West, above the national average of about 4%. That would be enough for the Tories to take Burnley where they need a 7.88% swing to win.
I have looked at the poll HY. Firstly where it says Tories down 8 labour down 9 in West Midlands I simply don’t believe it, I think Tories doing better in midlands at this election than that. They will go up in east and West Midlands not down. But where a party is going backwards in polls and rely on their win on another party going further back, surely there has to be room for movement between here and actual result, such as traditional supporters shy to admit what they are really going to do?
Interesting poll, since it's post-manifesto and may give a clue to what to expect from tonight's polls. I wouldn't get too hung up on the regional swings (the phrase "and roundabouts" sums it up) but this suggests a general swing of 6.5% Lab-Con and 5% Con-LD. If that was the national picture, with no tactical voting, we'd get Con 40 Lab 29 LD 16. It's a bad poll for Labour (though the 30-46 rating for Corbyn vs Johnson as Best PM is the best for a while), but quite good for the LDs, who will probably get a larger swing in areas outside this North/Midlands sample.
As the article says, these figures suggest 30 Tory gains from Labour here. Add another 20 elsewhere but assume 20 LD/SNP gains from Con and you end up with the 30ish Tory majority that a lot of us have been predicting. Obviously all subject to change and in particular to tactical voting.
I think that's about right. Offsetting that, there might be a below average swing to the Conservatives in the South East, and a swing against them in Scotland.
It's not quite as dramatic as it looks. Ex-mining areas have been swinging away from Labour for many years. It's just that Labour started with such huge leads in such areas, that they've only recently come into play.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
I think there are people who like independence more than the SNP, probably a growing number. Presumably there is polling on this.
I find that extremely unlikely.
I would agree with poster and also that I doubt there is any polling on it. I vote SNP for two reasons, main one is independence and fact that there is absolutely no sane opposition you could vote for otherwise. They would have no guarantee of my vote after independence if a decent centre right opposition party emerged. I much preferred Alex Salmond's SNP.
I don't doubt anything you say, but I do question there being a significant number of Scots who want to leave the UK who continue to vote Labour, LD, Tory or any of the others. I find it far more likely that a whole swathe of voters vote SNP, for a panoply of reasons, in various elections, but who don't want indy.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Not been denied - nor that the leader of Glasgow council is being shown the door for bringing embarrassment to the party - as soon as the GE is out of the way.
Labour Remainers know the party is overwhelmingly for Remain . And so really could care less if Corbyn is neutral and by being neutral it avoids a ref becoming a proxy vote on the PM.
Spoken to a few Labour Remainer friends since Corbyns announcement and they think his neutral stance is a good idea . The fact is the ref will have Remain on the ballot and that’s the main thing .
And the neutral stance helps Labour in Leave seats. Corbyn can make a positive over this if he couches this as trying to unite the country and not pit one side of the debate against the other .
I can see the potential appeal of a neutral stance, but it clearly is not a principled one since he didn't stay neutral in the first referendum, officially he was for Remain. So since it is not a principled stance about letting the people decide it is a calculated one, and the calculation seems to be to not take a view in order to avoid pissing people off.
It doesn't follow that this stance is unprincipled simply because he was for Remain last time. This would be a materially different choice. It would be Remain vs a defined (and very soft) Leave, and it would be in the context of the country having voted for generic Leave last time. Perhaps he truly does not have a strong view either way on that specific choice. That's no crime. Perhaps he thinks that since he would be the PM who would need to implement the decision he would be best placed to do so if he had been on neither the winning nor the losing side, especially the latter. If so, that is far from stupid or unreasonable. And let's remember there is little doubt that the overwhelming majority in the party, MPs, members, supporters, would be for Remain. Labour are a Remain party. Of course they are. So, all in all, whilst there is no perfect position for him and Labour to take, given the divisiveness of this issue, the one they have taken has much going for it. I posted here long ago that he ought to announce neutrality as his personal stance and I just wish my advice had been taken earlier. Do his people not read my stuff?
Comments
What did help in 1983 to keep us above the Alliance (which strategically was absolutely crucial) was simply residual loyalty. As one wavering Labour voter said "Oh, all right. You don't stop supporting your football team when it's in danger of relegation, do you?"
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
In any event, the oilfields are not pivotal to the question of Scottish independence: the industry is in decline, and Scotland is perfectly capable of functioning as a reasonably well-to-do Western European state in any event.
The real question is, assuming any kind of Tory majority next month, whether or not there are enough previously pro-Union voters who are now willing to back independence in order to secure re-entry to the EU? This is the great imponderable of Indyref2: the numbers required would likely need to be in excess of the No campaign's winning margin in 2014, given that a meaningful proportion of the Scottish electorate voted both Yes *and* Leave (according to YouGov, of those Scots who voted in both referendums 14% were Yes and Leave,) and an unknown but almost certainly significant proportion of those will prefer autonomy within the UK to resumed EU membership. On the other hand, it's estimated that double the number (28%) voted No and Remain, but it is by no means certain that the numbers of pro-EU switchers to independence would outnumber those Eurosceptic voters going in the opposite direction.
Beyond that, to win independence the Scottish Government must also successfully sell to the electorate a new currency, the tax rises and spending cuts needed to fund the deficit that's currently covered by the Westminster block grant, years of Brexit-style negotiations with London and (in all likelihood) a hard border with England should Scotland return to the EU at the end of the process.
By pushing for Indyref2, the SNP is essentially betting the farm that an accumulation of Europhile anger and Tory rule at Westminster will be enough to overcome these obstacles and get them where they want to go. Now, Scotland is a wealthy, confident and capable polity, so all of this is doable. But it's not exactly a gimme.
However, you also ignore the key issue in enclave status if they did become a Crown dependency (like Jersey). A territory is only an enclave if completely surrounded by the territorial waters of another country. This would require the furthest outpost of the Orkney and Shetlands to be less than 200 miles from the Scottish mainland (or wherever territorial waters start, which seems to be the mainland for this purpose). The northernmost tip of Unst is very close to the 200 mile distance and I am sure would become an interesting issue.
"I'm sure you meant well!
Don't blame me, I voted against him twice and was more or less happy with Miliband era Labour. If Johnson gets a big majority I think I will leave the country in spirit. I will continue to live here, bring up my family, go to work every day, but I will no longer invest any emotional capital in the country's fate. Let the Right own the country they will make in its own image - insular, selfish, angry and resentful. I can't be bothered caring any more."
I resigned not long after Corbyn became leader. He has been a monumental disaster for the party and the country and I don't think that the enormity of that hasn't been fully recognised yet.
Johnson has been given a free run because of our FPTP voting system.
I am pessimistic but more resigned the angry, I haven't voted in anything since 2016 because I don't much care who runs "Brexit Britain". As a country we have chosen to go down the Farage/UKIP path and it will not easily be reversed
The only glimmer of hope is that Johnson with a big majority could well be more of a liberal (London mayor era Johnson) than many of his supporters are expecting. The other silver lining is that when Labour get thrashed they turn to someone like Hilary Benn rather than anyone remotely associated with the disaster that it is Corbynism.
In betting terms my money went on a 1983 style result months ago, I know far too many ex-Labour voters who will not be going for Corbyn this time, far more so than 207 when any remainers gave him the benefit of the doubt. .
(PS Could someone post a brief description of what to do when a post is too long. I don't find the block quotes stuff easy and often get it wrong!)
A lot will depend on how the mps react.
Not that I expect it. For now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000bqht
I wonder what DA thinks......
But where a party is going backwards in polls and rely on their win on another party going further back, surely there has to be room for movement between here and actual result, such as traditional supporters shy to admit what they are really going to do?
And any Tory audience members may well tend towards an older demographic who may be both quieter and more deferential than the younger members.
Plus the Tory voteshare is up on 2017 in the Northwest at least on the poll anyway
In my experience it is the Tories that have the loud shouty mouths.
Four days before the deadline for postal voting in 2017 and 2015, ~105k registered. Yesterday's 308 k total is, therefore, apparently very high, and daily totals have been 2-3 times the equivalent days for about the past week. The 60-70 under 35 %ageis about the same in all three years.
Okay I have put the things that can still change the Tory win result into four categories.
1. Polls are telling us brex breaks 3:1 Tory and Labour, thats right isn't it? so if in absence of brex its breaks that way, how come it only mops up labour in constituency's with 1 labour and two torys standing. Added to that How many brexit candidates angry at stood down standing as indies and how many UKIP candidates being fielded? how many votes will they get if BREX not standing?
2. all we have so far is polls and a lot of excited Tories saying its different this time. We don't have the final result yet, in the last week the gap can narrow, yet again a youth quake could be disbelieved by pollsters, Labour don't even need to close it totally to well hang next parliament.
3. we can’t know degree Tory share creates a lot of near misses and Lab Libdem TV create a lot of narrow hits.
4. the campaign itself, does it match what the Tories are polling, and does it matter? on the hustings and in the debates it feels allsquare. this is the most Union Baron labour manifesto probably ever, it would be regressive if implemented but it doesn't mean its row of cute owls winking at the voter not going to work, let’s be honest as we are not standing voters can be stupid when free things dangled in front of them. Tory attacks seem every bit as personal as all the last three election, and it wastes their time talking positively, but so far doesn't feel nearly as effective as the job done on Miliband. The side of that bus stalks this Tory campaign, taking credibility from the attacks. And I don't think leaving the manifesto so late is good for the Tories, the attacks on it could be freshest come polling day.
"Good luck with that!"
Have a good morning.
Meanwhile remainers would turn out and you'd see a very comfortable remain win.
As the article says, these figures suggest 30 Tory gains from Labour here. Add another 20 elsewhere but assume 20 LD/SNP gains from Con and you end up with the 30ish Tory majority that a lot of us have been predicting. Obviously all subject to change and in particular to tactical voting.
Given the way the civil case collapsed and the amount of costs awarded
it did not show government processes in a good light.
I think mere speculation at this point.
If he wasn’t so rubbish he could be a good leader?
Doesn't that just mean leavers say 'no thanks, I dont want another referendum' and remainers say 'oh, i thought you were on our side?'
And the EU say 'you dont support staying, you want a credible deal despite 2 already being offered but you also want to reform us? Yeah, you're not getting a good deal'
Its utterly bizarre
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716123/Jeremy-Corbyns-sons-firm-goes-liquidation-owing-100-000.html
I guess he could always go and work for the old man.
They would have no guarantee of my vote after independence if a decent centre right opposition party emerged. I much preferred Alex Salmond's SNP.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8ws_APXilE
I tend to think that with postal voting becoming such an important part of the election that publication of manifestos should somehow be made compulsory before postal votes are sent out.
How can anyone claim a mandate for a manifesto that was not published before people voted?
This is not simply a narrow point of election campaigns, it has an important consequence for the Parliament Act and forcing legislation through the Lords on the basis of the democratic mandate for it.
It shouldn't come as much surprise from the people who prorogued Parliament to evade Parliamentary scrutiny, that they are now delaying publication of their manifesto to avoid scrutiny from the voters, but it is cruel and unusual punishment for the informal rules of our constitution. It's just not cricket.
Can you imagine what their response would be were a future Tony Blair figure do the same for the red/yellow team? They'd go all Mountbatten on their arse. Actions like this poison the democratic well for decades. Johnson has taken us several significant steps down a very dangerous road.
As I stated before, many universities are now running automated voter registration upon starting a new academic year. It has now transitioned from just those in uni accommodation to all students in many cases. Those systems don't distinguish between who is or isn't already registered, it simply bulk forwards all the details to the local council to make applications.
“I’m not convinced there is a case for an England-only parliament,” he said in comments reported by the National. “We have an England-only parliament. It’s Westminster. It’s been there for a long time. I’m not disposed to create another parliament.”
Worth a read
Lol.
And they might not.
https://www.google.com/search?q=nhs+hospitals+scotland+and+special+measures&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBGB792GB792&oq=nhs+hospitals+scotland+and+special+measures&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.10671j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
spot the difference
Boris did very well with such a hostile crowd & Bruce's interuptions.
Worst case impact on Tory vote will be zero impact. Corbyn by contrast did provide a couple of soundbites that are already being used against him.
However, she is the architect of her own downfall by agreeing to campaign to revoke the democratic vote and by claiming she could be PM
Watching the media this morning Corbyn is coming under serious attack over his neutral stance and CCHQ must be delighted yesterday's QT has put Corbyn and Brexit at the centre of the news cycle this weekend
It's not quite as dramatic as it looks. Ex-mining areas have been swinging away from Labour for many years. It's just that Labour started with such huge leads in such areas, that they've only recently come into play.
Spoken to a few Labour Remainer friends since Corbyns announcement and they think his neutral stance is a good idea . The fact is the ref will have Remain on the ballot and that’s the main thing .
And the neutral stance helps Labour in Leave seats. Corbyn can make a positive over this if he couches this as trying to unite the country and not pit one side of the debate against the other .
Yet at the same time you are happy to shout out fake news which is clearly crap and disprovable but which favours Labour
Strange that.