I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.
Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.
I would not be surprised if officials beg him not to say anything, but he wont be able to help himself. Even if he does not spontaneously say so, he will be asked and he will blurt it out with the grace and subtlety of a blue whale in a trench coat.
A Trump endorsement is not the electoral Sarin that some assume. 2019 tories like Trump because he hates all the things they do: foreigners, the EU, people with a sense of humour, etc. He is their tutelary deity.
Everybody is getting hung up on the Jezza "neutral stance". The thing that pisses of Leave voters (and increasingly soft Remain) is the delay and uncertainty. People just want it sorted. Labour's policy of re-re-re-negotiation and then another vote in another 9-12 months does nothing for that.
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Not been denied - nor that the leader of Glasgow council is being shown the door for bringing embarrassment to the party - as soon as the GE is out of the way.
'Not been denied'.
Lol.
Is it possible though ?
Glasgow Council leader Langdon will be gone after the election - Nats brassnecking it out until then.
So, 'neutral' Doesn't that just mean leavers say 'no thanks, I dont want another referendum' and remainers say 'oh, i thought you were on our side?' And the EU say 'you dont support staying, you want a credible deal despite 2 already being offered but you also want to reform us? Yeah, you're not getting a good deal' Its utterly bizarre
I can see the potential appeal of a neutral stance, but it clearly is not a principled one since he didn't stay neutral in the first referendum, officially he was for Remain. So since it is not a principled stance about letting the people decide it is a calculated one, and the calculation seems to be to not take a view in order to avoid pissing people off.
Is that what people want though? Given millions voted online to revoke / 2nd referendum and are very vocal about wanting to Remain and clearly since Boris went die in a ditch about leaving the Tory polling has risen, suggests the public wants a stance.
That's why I said I could see the appeal 'but'. I don't think at this point it will see a shift in support, since those who are most put off by him being equivocal will already have acted, but I don't think it will be popular, and I object to him pretending it is a principled stance when his backing Remain in the first place shows it is not.
I accept kinbalu's attempt to suggest otherwise because it is a different question (and I agree that Labour as a party are for Remain regardless), but I don't buy it. Either you believe in following the peoples' decision or you don't, and last time he sought to influence that decision and this time is saying he will stay out of it. Yes, it is a different question, but it is still the same principle of whether to become involved on one side or not. He believes taking a stance is ok, and is choosing not to take one.
Labour's policy of renegotiation and referendum is actually the best on offer, but Corbyn is personally doing contortions around what he would do after that renegotiation (and as kinbalu is also correct to note his stance is not a surprise), but I do not accept it as principled, it is a political fudge he has taken.
It's yet another example of his backers pretending he is not a politician in the same mould as any other, that his fudges and obfuscations are principled and others' are not. Corbyn is a career politician just as capable of acting like any other career politician, and that is what he has done - taken a stance inconsistent with his previous actions and pretending it is a grand principle.
Everybody is getting hung up on the Jezza "neutral stance". The thing that pisses of Leave voters (and increasingly soft Remain) is the delay and uncertainty. People just want it sorted. Labour's policy of re-re-re-negotiation and then another vote in another 9-12 months does nothing for that.
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
Yes and the idea a referendum will take place in six months is for the birds
A new deal has to go through the 27 and the EU commission, then the HOC. The legislation for a referendum will be tortuous and take months then 22 weeks to campaign
2020 will be a dead year and no certainty at the end of it
A Tory landslide might be v good for democracy. It might force the Labour party to grt rid of iits really nasty people loke Milne Corbyn and Mcdonnel among others and move towards the centre They will never won win wiyh a hard keft manifesto.
It could just as easily push them further to the left.
Let's try out my one size fits all response to anything concerning labour
"Good luck with that!"
It depends on what Labour MPs are left after they lose seats in a Tory landslide. The hard left already have full control of the party, and the membership, so they will make it harder for a candidate to win from the other sides of the party. The hard left has been doing, successfully, all it can to push the more centerist MPs and members out of the party. The more that happens the easier it is for the hard left to keep control and the more it will help push out the centerists.
I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.
Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.
I would not be surprised if officials beg him not to say anything, but he wont be able to help himself. Even if he does not spontaneously say so, he will be asked and he will blurt it out with the grace and subtlety of a blue whale in a trench coat.
A Trump endorsement is not the electoral Sarin that some assume. 2019 tories like Trump because he hates all the things they do: foreigners, the EU, people with a sense of humour, etc. He is their tutelary deity.
They need more than regular Tories to get that majority.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
I'd suggest more people in England now want to end the UK. After England is the country that does not have a parliament and has been forced to remain in the EU against the majority choice of both its voters & MP's.
The two countries just have different social and political outlooks. Scotland wants to be Sweden, England ex London wants to be Alabama. It makes sense for them to split, they will never be happy in a Union anymore. The interesting question is what London does. My guess is long term England sees a lot less regional redistribution.
Everybody is getting hung up on the Jezza "neutral stance". The thing that pisses of Leave voters (and increasingly soft Remain) is the delay and uncertainty. People just want it sorted. Labour's policy of re-re-re-negotiation and then another vote in another 9-12 months does nothing for that.
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
Yes and the idea a referendum will take place in six months is for the birds
A new deal has to go through the 27 and the EU commission, then the HOC. The legislation for a referendum will be tortuous and take months then 22 weeks to campaign
2020 will be a dead year and no certainty at the end of it
There won’t be another referendum on anything this side of 2025 .
I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.
Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.
I would not be surprised if officials beg him not to say anything, but he wont be able to help himself. Even if he does not spontaneously say so, he will be asked and he will blurt it out with the grace and subtlety of a blue whale in a trench coat.
A Trump endorsement is not the electoral Sarin that some assume. 2019 tories like Trump because he hates all the things they do: foreigners, the EU, people with a sense of humour, etc. He is their tutelary deity.
They need more than regular Tories to get that majority.
Nope. They just need regular Labour voters to stay home and wash their hair.
Everybody is getting hung up on the Jezza "neutral stance". The thing that pisses of Leave voters (and increasingly soft Remain) is the delay and uncertainty. People just want it sorted. Labour's policy of re-re-re-negotiation and then another vote in another 9-12 months does nothing for that.
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
Yes and the idea a referendum will take place in six months is for the birds
A new deal has to go through the 27 and the EU commission, then the HOC. The legislation for a referendum will be tortuous and take months then 22 weeks to campaign
2020 will be a dead year and no certainty at the end of it
6 months is hard but nine months is doable. There's no certainty next year with the Johnson deal anyway, we immediately get into the question of the transition and into a very tough FTA negotiation. Only the terminally gullible think that Brexit will get "done" next year. Nobody in the markets thinks it will, I can tell you that.
I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.
Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.
I would not be surprised if officials beg him not to say anything, but he wont be able to help himself. Even if he does not spontaneously say so, he will be asked and he will blurt it out with the grace and subtlety of a blue whale in a trench coat.
A Trump endorsement is not the electoral Sarin that some assume. 2019 tories like Trump because he hates all the things they do: foreigners, the EU, people with a sense of humour, etc. He is their tutelary deity.
They need more than regular Tories to get that majority.
Nope. They just need regular Labour voters to stay home and wash their hair.
I suppose. I don't think they will stay home by enough, hence needing more to actually go Tory.
The Met Office have just now issued yellow weather warnings for rain that cover the south west of England for each day of the next five days, Saturday-Wednesday. It's quite extraordinary.
It's been like that since the beginning of October. Barely a day since then without rain. The water table is so high, a spring has apppeared high above the usual part of the garden that gets wet. Everything is sodden. Just been out for food and roads are covered with deep run-off water already. Another 5 days of this will be fun.....
I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.
Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.
I would not be surprised if officials beg him not to say anything, but he wont be able to help himself. Even if he does not spontaneously say so, he will be asked and he will blurt it out with the grace and subtlety of a blue whale in a trench coat.
A Trump endorsement is not the electoral Sarin that some assume. 2019 tories like Trump because he hates all the things they do: foreigners, the EU, people with a sense of humour, etc. He is their tutelary deity.
They need more than regular Tories to get that majority.
Nope. They just need regular Labour voters to stay home and wash their hair.
I suppose. I don't think they will stay home by enough, hence needing more to actually go Tory.
The Labour vote share is currently down 10% on 2017, those voters have to go somewhere. Some of the 8% bounce in the Lib Dems must be because of some of those voters.
Everybody is getting hung up on the Jezza "neutral stance". The thing that pisses of Leave voters (and increasingly soft Remain) is the delay and uncertainty. People just want it sorted. Labour's policy of re-re-re-negotiation and then another vote in another 9-12 months does nothing for that.
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
Yes and the idea a referendum will take place in six months is for the birds
A new deal has to go through the 27 and the EU commission, then the HOC. The legislation for a referendum will be tortuous and take months then 22 weeks to campaign
2020 will be a dead year and no certainty at the end of it
6 months is hard but nine months is doable. There's no certainty next year with the Johnson deal anyway, we immediately get into the question of the transition and into a very tough FTA negotiation. Only the terminally gullible think that Brexit will get "done" next year. Nobody in the markets thinks it will, I can tell you that.
With respect I am not terminally gullible and do not need telling that brexit does not end next year
However, if Boris wins the one certainty is that revoke and another referendum are over then those who want to remain need to make their case to rejoin which is the democratic way forward
When we get to the GE autopsy threads it will be interesting to see what line Labour take.
One real possibility is that the only takeaway is that Jezza is off and that Brexit cost them the election - then they serve up the same manifesto in 2025 minus the Brexit bit.
That must chill the hearts of the moderates who still hang around.
The Met Office have just now issued yellow weather warnings for rain that cover the south west of England for each day of the next five days, Saturday-Wednesday. It's quite extraordinary.
It's been like that since the beginning of October. Barely a day since then without rain. The water table is so high, a spring has apppeared high above the usual part of the garden that gets wet. Everything is sodden. Just been out for food and roads are covered with deep run-off water already. Another 5 days of this will be fun.....
It does mean there are no hosepipe bans currently in force.
When we get to the GE autopsy threads it will be interesting to see what line Labour take.
One real possibility is that the only takeaway is that Jezza is off and that Brexit cost them the election - then they serve up the same manifesto in 2025 minus the Brexit bit.
That must chill the hearts of the moderates who still hang around.
I honestly can't see Labour just abandoning this hard left approach even if Jezza is beaten at the GE. The membership are behind it, lots of leading moderate voices have gone and I think they will also convince themselves one more push, with all the factors in play.
In addition to Brexit, there is like to be a world recession in the next 5 years, the middle class in the western economies haven't been doing as well in past 10 years as over the past 50 years due to the rise of China etc and that will only be squeezed further by technology.
That is fertile ground to try and convince another 10% of the population to give capitalism the boot.
Finishing up Question Time. Johnson did rather well despite the audience, as did Swinson
I agree. And I'm no fan of Swinson.
I thought Jo Swinson's attacks bordered on abuse and at one time it appeared she was near tears but she did very well to withstand the onslaught
However, she is the architect of her own downfall by agreeing to campaign to revoke the democratic vote and by claiming she could be PM
Watching the media this morning Corbyn is coming under serious attack over his neutral stance and CCHQ must be delighted yesterday's QT has put Corbyn and Brexit at the centre of the news cycle this weekend
This is a Brexit election. Labour's posiiton and Corbyn's take within that have been at the heart of how this election would be decided.
Saying "maybe....maybe not" is not going to win over anybody who has a view about Brexit, for or agin.
The Met Office have just now issued yellow weather warnings for rain that cover the south west of England for each day of the next five days, Saturday-Wednesday. It's quite extraordinary.
It's been like that since the beginning of October. Barely a day since then without rain. The water table is so high, a spring has apppeared high above the usual part of the garden that gets wet. Everything is sodden. Just been out for food and roads are covered with deep run-off water already. Another 5 days of this will be fun.....
It does mean there are no hosepipe bans currently in force.
The downside is that the constant run-off will give LibDem council candidates endless potholes to point at.....
Everybody is getting hung up on the Jezza "neutral stance". The thing that pisses of Leave voters (and increasingly soft Remain) is the delay and uncertainty. People just want it sorted. Labour's policy of re-re-re-negotiation and then another vote in another 9-12 months does nothing for that.
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
Yes and the idea a referendum will take place in six months is for the birds
A new deal has to go through the 27 and the EU commission, then the HOC. The legislation for a referendum will be tortuous and take months then 22 weeks to campaign
2020 will be a dead year and no certainty at the end of it
6 months is hard but nine months is doable. There's no certainty next year with the Johnson deal anyway, we immediately get into the question of the transition and into a very tough FTA negotiation. Only the terminally gullible think that Brexit will get "done" next year. Nobody in the markets thinks it will, I can tell you that.
With respect I am not terminally gullible and do not need telling that brexit does not end next year
However, if Boris wins the one certainty is that revoke and another referendum are over then those who want to remain need to make their case to rejoin which is the democratic way forward
We won't rejoin. The economy will be rewired for existence outside the EU - JIT manufacturing will shrink massively, our food rules will be set at US levels and the FTA with them and the deregulation in the UK will make it very hard to join the EU without massive new upheaval. Once we are out that is it, Britain is no longer a European country.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
I'd suggest more people in England now want to end the UK. After England is the country that does not have a parliament and has been forced to remain in the EU against the majority choice of both its voters & MP's.
The two countries just have different social and political outlooks. Scotland wants to be Sweden, England ex London wants to be Alabama. It makes sense for them to split, they will never be happy in a Union anymore. The interesting question is what London does. My guess is long term England sees a lot less regional redistribution.
ISTR social outlooks in Scotland have found to be fairly similar to those in England. But the extent to which the Scots see themselves as Scots and the English as English has increasef in my lifetime. And that, ultimately, is what makes a nation - that it seed itself as one. I also remember a headline in the Scotsman some time before the inyref that support for Scottish independence was somewhat higher in England than in Scotland, at, at the time, about a third.
Everybody is getting hung up on the Jezza "neutral stance". The thing that pisses of Leave voters (and increasingly soft Remain) is the delay and uncertainty. People just want it sorted. Labour's policy of re-re-re-negotiation and then another vote in another 9-12 months does nothing for that.
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
Yes and the idea a referendum will take place in six months is for the birds
A new deal has to go through the 27 and the EU commission, then the HOC. The legislation for a referendum will be tortuous and take months then 22 weeks to campaign
2020 will be a dead year and no certainty at the end of it
6 months is hard but nine months is doable. There's no certainty next year with the Johnson deal anyway, we immediately get into the question of the transition and into a very tough FTA negotiation. Only the terminally gullible think that Brexit will get "done" next year. Nobody in the markets thinks it will, I can tell you that.
With respect I am not terminally gullible and do not need telling that brexit does not end next year
However, if Boris wins the one certainty is that revoke and another referendum are over then those who want to remain need to make their case to rejoin which is the democratic way forward
I don't think Mr OLB was including you in the gullible; it was a general statement, recognising the fact that simplistic statements of this kind are just that...... simplistic. I would forecast ...... dangerous ...... that Boris gets the majority he needs but by this time next year, commercial matters having gone badly over the summer, he'll be bogged down in discussions over the details of the FTA. He will be blaming his former 'friends and partners' and the Express and Mail will be howling about Europe as 'the enemy'. Meanwhile there will be significant NHS and Care staff shortages.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Not been denied - nor that the leader of Glasgow council is being shown the door for bringing embarrassment to the party - as soon as the GE is out of the way.
Well tell us who source is then , no doubt anonymous unionist zoomer
Did we ever get the answer to the baby termination policy in labours manifesto?
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Did we ever get the answer to the baby termination policy in labours manifesto?
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
I'm amazed they could not very quickly answer that question.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
I'd suggest more people in England now want to end the UK. After England is the country that does not have a parliament and has been forced to remain in the EU against the majority choice of both its voters & MP's.
The two countries just have different social and political outlooks. Scotland wants to be Sweden, England ex London wants to be Alabama. It makes sense for them to split, they will never be happy in a Union anymore. The interesting question is what London does. My guess is long term England sees a lot less regional redistribution.
ISTR social outlooks in Scotland have found to be fairly similar to those in England. But the extent to which the Scots see themselves as Scots and the English as English has increasef in my lifetime. And that, ultimately, is what makes a nation - that it seed itself as one. I also remember a headline in the Scotsman some time before the inyref that support for Scottish independence was somewhat higher in England than in Scotland, at, at the time, about a third.
The Scots like each other more than the English do (Rangers/Celtic notwithstanding).
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
I think there are people who like independence more than the SNP, probably a growing number. Presumably there is polling on this.
I find that extremely unlikely.
I would agree with poster and also that I doubt there is any polling on it. I vote SNP for two reasons, main one is independence and fact that there is absolutely no sane opposition you could vote for otherwise. They would have no guarantee of my vote after independence if a decent centre right opposition party emerged. I much preferred Alex Salmond's SNP.
I don't doubt anything you say, but I do question there being a significant number of Scots who want to leave the UK who continue to vote Labour, LD, Tory or any of the others. I find it far more likely that a whole swathe of voters vote SNP, for a panoply of reasons, in various elections, but who don't want indy.
No expert but there are supposedly people who vote for those parties who are also for independence. Will not be many SNP voters that do not want independence, if any.
Impressively shit from the Corbyn Jnr...not even managing to make a business out of one of the hottest products at the moment even when located in an area that is interested in.
Did we ever get the answer to the baby termination policy in labours manifesto?
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
I'm amazed they could not very quickly answer that question.
It was Friday afternoon and the office closed at 4:30 pm. Maybe that’s why.
Odds on a Tory majority have lengthened from 1.53 to 1.57 i.e. 64% probability of any kind of Tory majority.
Currently 1.55
Currently 1.56-1.57
It’s 1.55, I’m looking straight at it now. It briefly went 1.56 this morning, not sure where you’re getting the 1.57 from?
Betfair. I'm looking at it now. 157-1.58
Perhaps you're looking at NOM rather than Tory majority?
Nope looking at Tory majority. Clearly I’m not the only one who thinks you’re looking at the wrong odds. I have grave concerns about your model suggesting a Tory majority is touch and go with a double digit polling lead (although I appreciate the effort). I do wonder if you’re projecting what you want to happen rather than what will happen. It also concerns me that your Betfair is incorrect, you appear to be looking at odds for ‘next government’ rather than ‘majority’.
I'm so sorry! You are right. I'm looking at next government. In theory the odds on Tory majority should be same and they nearly are. My basic point was the odds were lengthening slightly.
My model is arithmetical and has no political opinion or local knowledge. It tries to represent the lumpiness of the vote, the BXP effect, tactical voting etc. The reason why the Tories need such a large lead over Labour to get an overall majority is that they not only need to beat Labour but beat them by over 100 seats to overcome about 100 seats that belong to SNP/LD/PC/Green/NI.
It is possible that bias has crept in my tactical assumptions. I am up front about what they are. I try to validate them by checking with poll data and also check my results against MRP and constituency polls and listen to feedback from PBers.
My aim is not to spin but to provide an objective model. We'll see how well it does on the night.
ISTR social outlooks in Scotland have found to be fairly similar to those in England. But the extent to which the Scots see themselves as Scots and the English as English has increasef in my lifetime. And that, ultimately, is what makes a nation - that it seed itself as one. I also remember a headline in the Scotsman some time before the inyref that support for Scottish independence was somewhat higher in England than in Scotland, at, at the time, about a third.
For the union to work in the long term the competing forces of growing nationalisms (in all parts of the UK) need to be harnessed in a common purpose.
This is the opposite of what the SNP wants The Tories are slowly transitioning into a nationalist party for England. Labour have become irrelevant in Scotland and (overhyped at the moment IMO) are in serious trouble in Wales. NI has always been different.
That's most of the political support in the country pulling in different directions. It'll pull the country apart in my lifetime. The Genie is out of the bottle and it's not going back in anytime soon.
Did we ever get the answer to the baby termination policy in labours manifesto?
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
Thanks. I'm sure if they have gone rogue on this plenty of Herod and Slaughter of the innocents headlines will ensue. It would be dementia tax on steroids
Sounds like Question time was a shambles, with once again the BBC messing up the representation, just like the regular Thursday editions. We don't want to see an audience of exact numbers of propaganda spouting activists matching the numbers of seats in parliament, otherwise we could just ask other MPs to sit in the audience. If they can't get non partisan "regular people" to sit in the audience then do away with the audience altogether.
Even if the audience is split evenly - the issue is some people may be more vocal than others.
And any Tory audience members may well tend towards an older demographic who may be both quieter and more deferential than the younger members.
Ha Ha Ha Ha , it was because it was psoh Tories your Honour , honest , those noisy peasants from the other parties were riff raff shouty sorts. In my experience it is the Tories that have the loud shouty mouths.
Calm down Malcolm. We don't want anything to happen with your blood pressure; not with those Glasgow hospitals in special measures.
LOL, my blood pressure is just dandy and I live 30 miles away from Glasgow, plus the one with issues is the childrens hospital and so am hopefully safe. News that they are in special measures, one in Glasgow had an issue some time ago and the other is in Edinburgh an not opened yet, you are being taken in by Tory fake news it seems.
Yes announced yesterday you moron. The other hospital has not opened. Give us same for England smartarse, how many special measures, Shipman types down there, I saw one where they were killing mothers and babies for 40 years before doing anything just the other day, and have been several more recently all about things running for 20+ years. You note the difference with a real government , they take action pronto.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Not been denied - nor that the leader of Glasgow council is being shown the door for bringing embarrassment to the party - as soon as the GE is out of the way.
I've just seen this linked on Reddit. It appears to be a list from YouGov showing all their polls since 2017, with a new poll from 21-22 Nov showing Con: 42 Lab: 30 LD: 16
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Not been denied - nor that the leader of Glasgow council is being shown the door for bringing embarrassment to the party - as soon as the GE is out of the way.
'Not been denied'.
Lol.
Is it possible though ?
Glasgow Council leader Langdon will be gone after the election - Nats brassnecking it out until then.
LOL, opposition call for her to resign translates in the febrile mind of a unionist zoomer to be SNP sacking leader of party in Glasgow Council. You could not make it up.
Everybody is getting hung up on the Jezza "neutral stance". The thing that pisses of Leave voters (and increasingly soft Remain) is the delay and uncertainty. People just want it sorted. Labour's policy of re-re-re-negotiation and then another vote in another 9-12 months does nothing for that.
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
Yes and the idea a referendum will take place in six months is for the birds
A new deal has to go through the 27 and the EU commission, then the HOC. The legislation for a referendum will be tortuous and take months then 22 weeks to campaign
2020 will be a dead year and no certainty at the end of it
6 months is hard but nine months is doable. There's no certainty next year with the Johnson deal anyway, we immediately get into the question of the transition and into a very tough FTA negotiation. Only the terminally gullible think that Brexit will get "done" next year. Nobody in the markets thinks it will, I can tell you that.
With respect I am not terminally gullible and do not need telling that brexit does not end next year
However, if Boris wins the one certainty is that revoke and another referendum are over then those who want to remain need to make their case to rejoin which is the democratic way forward
The other certainty is that No Deal is still a possibility.
A Tory landslide might be v good for democracy. It might force the Labour party to grt rid of iits really nasty people loke Milne Corbyn and Mcdonnel among others and move towards the centre They will never won win wiyh a hard keft manifesto.
It could just as easily push them further to the left.
There's further Left than Milne Corbyn and McDonnell???
I've just seen this linked on Reddit. It appears to be a list from YouGov showing all their polls since 2017, with a new poll from 21-22 Nov showing Con: 42 Lab: 30 LD: 16
In 1983 Cons opinion poll 3 weeks before election had Copns at 50%, Alliance at 12%. Then 2 weeks out Labour at 35% only 7% behind. Final vote what was it 43, 26,25, Con , Lab and Alliance. This all seems a bit similar, perhaps Cons to end up in upper 30s, Labour about 30, Lib Den 15-20%
Did we ever get the answer to the baby termination policy in labours manifesto?
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
Thanks. I'm sure if they have gone rogue on this plenty of Herod and Slaughter of the innocents headlines will ensue. It would be dementia tax on steroids
It is - whatever other views one might have on it - entirely consistent with a view that a woman’s body is entirely hers to do with what she wants. Hence a view which says that obtaining the permission of 2 doctors to get an abortion is unconscionable ie there should be abortion on demand
If you agree with such a view then it is not that much of a stretch to say that such control should exist throughout pregnancy.
There are really a range of options:-
1. No abortion at all. 2. Abortion only for a very limited range of reasons. 3. Abortion for a wider range of reasons up to a limit - roughly when the foetus is viable. 4. Abortion on demand up to a certain time limit. 5. Abortion on demand up to a certain early-ish time limit and with medical approval thereafter and possibly only for specific reasons. 6. Abortion on demand throughout pregnancy.
If you want to get rid of the requirement to have any medical approval at all - on the basis that the principle of women having absolute control over their bodies is or should be sancrosanct - then in reality, 4 or 6 are the only options. (And 6 is the most consistent with such a principle.) Note that with both options you are permitting abortions for reasons which people might find distasteful eg because the foetus is a girl.
It is possible that, when formulating the statement in the manifesto, they did not think through the implications of simply saying “let’s decriminalise abortions”. But let’s see.
I've just seen this linked on Reddit. It appears to be a list from YouGov showing all their polls since 2017, with a new poll from 21-22 Nov showing Con: 42 Lab: 30 LD: 16
Interesting. So no change despite debates and Labour Amazon sized magic money forest manifesto.
Edit - Unless somebody has accidentally copy / pasted in preparation for tonight? As I see other links to surveys about best PM etc only have up to the last "public" revealed one.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Not been denied - nor that the leader of Glasgow council is being shown the door for bringing embarrassment to the party - as soon as the GE is out of the way.
'Not been denied'.
Lol.
Is it possible though ?
Glasgow Council leader Langdon will be gone after the election - Nats brassnecking it out until then.
LOL, opposition call for her to resign translates in the febrile mind of a unionist zoomer to be SNP sacking leader of party in Glasgow Council. You could not make it up.
It’s good to know however that come rain, shine or political earthquakes the standards of integrity and good governance at Glasgow City Council remain unchanged.
It’s comfort and security in a fast changing world.
A Tory landslide might be v good for democracy. It might force the Labour party to grt rid of iits really nasty people loke Milne Corbyn and Mcdonnel among others and move towards the centre They will never won win wiyh a hard keft manifesto.
It could just as easily push them further to the left.
There's further Left than Milne Corbyn and McDonnell???
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Not been denied - nor that the leader of Glasgow council is being shown the door for bringing embarrassment to the party - as soon as the GE is out of the way.
'Not been denied'.
Lol.
Is it possible though ?
Glasgow Council leader Langdon will be gone after the election - Nats brassnecking it out until then.
LOL, opposition call for her to resign translates in the febrile mind of a unionist zoomer to be SNP sacking leader of party in Glasgow Council. You could not make it up.
It’s good to know however that come rain, shine or political earthquakes the standards of integrity and good governance at Glasgow City Council remain unchanged.
It’s comfort and security in a fast changing world.
corruption and dodgy dealings have plummetted since SNP took over. Also they stopped blocking equal pay for women that Labour had spent millions on , bill for 500M+ due to Labour and union help , to be paid unfortunately.
Did we ever get the answer to the baby termination policy in labours manifesto?
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
Thanks. I'm sure if they have gone rogue on this plenty of Herod and Slaughter of the innocents headlines will ensue. It would be dementia tax on steroids
It is - whatever other views one might have on it - entirely consistent with a view that a woman’s body is entirely hers to do with what she wants. Hence a view which says that obtaining the permission of 2 doctors to get an abortion is unconscionable ie there should be abortion on demand
If you agree with such a view then it is not that much of a stretch to say that such control should exist throughout pregnancy.
There are really a range of options:-
1. No abortion at all. 2. Abortion only for a very limited range of reasons. 3. Abortion for a wider range of reasons up to a limit - roughly when the foetus is viable. 4. Abortion on demand up to a certain time limit. 5. Abortion on demand up to a certain early-ish time limit and with medical approval thereafter and possibly only for specific reasons. 6. Abortion on demand throughout pregnancy.
If you want to get rid of the requirement to have any medical approval at all - on the basis that the principle of women having absolute control over their bodies is or should be sancrosanct - then in reality, 4 or 6 are the only options. (And 6 is the most consistent with such a principle.) Note that with both options you are permitting abortions for reasons which people might find distasteful eg because the foetus is a girl.
It is possible that, when formulating the statement in the manifesto, they did not think through the implications of simply saying “let’s decriminalise abortions”. But let’s see.
There is a sort-of clarification here:
A Labour spokesman told the Catholic Herald that there would still be regulation of abortion provision. “Abortion procedures and those performing them must be properly regulated but vulnerable women should be advised and assisted rather than criminalised.”
The spokesman said there would be “wide public consultation on the detail of new laws and regulations.”
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
I think there are people who like independence more than the SNP, probably a growing number. Presumably there is polling on this.
I find that extremely unlikely.
I would agree with poster and also that I doubt there is any polling on it. I vote SNP for two reasons, main one is independence and fact that there is absolutely no sane opposition you could vote for otherwise. They would have no guarantee of my vote after independence if a decent centre right opposition party emerged. I much preferred Alex Salmond's SNP.
SNP support may be polled at 43%, but don't ignore SGreen support (currently polling 4%) which takes it to about 47%. Of course not every vote is Indy based, there are Green and SNP voters who are not pro Indy, but far less proportion - there are 30% Lab voters who say they support Indy.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Morning Malc. Is it true Nicola is standing down next spring or an unsubstantiated rumour
Not been denied - nor that the leader of Glasgow council is being shown the door for bringing embarrassment to the party - as soon as the GE is out of the way.
'Not been denied'.
Lol.
Is it possible though ?
Glasgow Council leader Langdon will be gone after the election - Nats brassnecking it out until then.
LOL, opposition call for her to resign translates in the febrile mind of a unionist zoomer to be SNP sacking leader of party in Glasgow Council. You could not make it up.
It’s good to know however that come rain, shine or political earthquakes the standards of integrity and good governance at Glasgow City Council remain unchanged.
It’s comfort and security in a fast changing world.
Back in the 1990's Doncaster Council was for a time, the most corrupt council in the UK, but Glasgow has regained the crown.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
I think there are people who like independence more than the SNP, probably a growing number. Presumably there is polling on this.
I find that extremely unlikely.
I would agree with poster and also that I doubt there is any polling on it. I vote SNP for two reasons, main one is independence and fact that there is absolutely no sane opposition you could vote for otherwise. They would have no guarantee of my vote after independence if a decent centre right opposition party emerged. I much preferred Alex Salmond's SNP.
SNP support may be polled at 43%, but don't ignore SGreen support (currently polling 4%) which takes it to about 47%. Of course not every vote is Indy based, there are Green and SNP voters who are not pro Indy, but far less proportion - there are 30% Lab voters who say they support Indy.
great post , good to see some unbiased posting on here.
A Tory landslide might be v good for democracy. It might force the Labour party to grt rid of iits really nasty people loke Milne Corbyn and Mcdonnel among others and move towards the centre They will never won win wiyh a hard keft manifesto.
It could just as easily push them further to the left.
There's further Left than Milne Corbyn and McDonnell???
It can and probably will push the average labour MP and the party as a whole further to the left not necessarily the leadership.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
I think there are people who like independence more than the SNP, probably a growing number. Presumably there is polling on this.
I find that extremely unlikely.
I would agree with poster and also that I doubt there is any polling on it. I vote SNP for two reasons, main one is independence and fact that there is absolutely no sane opposition you could vote for otherwise. They would have no guarantee of my vote after independence if a decent centre right opposition party emerged. I much preferred Alex Salmond's SNP.
SNP support may be polled at 43%, but don't ignore SGreen support (currently polling 4%) which takes it to about 47%. Of course not every vote is Indy based, there are Green and SNP voters who are not pro Indy, but far less proportion - there are 30% Lab voters who say they support Indy.
great post , good to see some unbiased posting on here.
I've just seen this linked on Reddit. It appears to be a list from YouGov showing all their polls since 2017, with a new poll from 21-22 Nov showing Con: 42 Lab: 30 LD: 16
That looks like the Sunday Times poll, published prematurely.
Last week, the Sunday Times had the Conservatives 17% ahead, so it's less bad news for Labour. But, it's in line with this week's other Yougov polls putting the Conservatives 12% and 14% ahead, so basically, the debate and Labour's manifesto, have failed to move the dial.
Did we ever get the answer to the baby termination policy in labours manifesto?
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
I'm amazed they could not very quickly answer that question.
It was Friday afternoon and the office closed at 4:30 pm. Maybe that’s why.
“You are 215,546th in our queue and we will get to you shortly....”
I've just seen this linked on Reddit. It appears to be a list from YouGov showing all their polls since 2017, with a new poll from 21-22 Nov showing Con: 42 Lab: 30 LD: 16
That looks like the Sunday Times poll, published prematurely.
Last week, the Sunday Times had the Conservatives 17% ahead, so it's less bad news for Labour. But, it's in line with this week's other Yougov polls putting the Conservatives 12% and 14% ahead, so basically, the debate and Labour's manifesto, have failed to move the dial.
The 17% one was clearly an outlier. The most recent one being 12% was basically inline with the average.
What is interesting again it is seems Labour have hit this 30% ceiling and been stuck there for over 2 weeks now. The Tories on the other hand went through 40% and still keep sneaking up.
Of course by 10pm this evening that might all have changed....
Did we ever get the answer to the baby termination policy in labours manifesto?
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
I'm amazed they could not very quickly answer that question.
It was Friday afternoon and the office closed at 4:30 pm. Maybe that’s why.
“You are 215,546th in our queue and we will get to you shortly....”
Will be the customer service under Commie Cable Co...
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
Ah good. And as per our previous exchange here is what I very confidently predict.
Now - Abortion is default illegal but with exceptions defined.
Proposed - Abortion is default legal but with exceptions defined. These exceptions to be similar to those that are NOT exceptions now.
Everybody is getting hung up on the Jezza "neutral stance". The thing that pisses of Leave voters (and increasingly soft Remain) is the delay and uncertainty. People just want it sorted. Labour's policy of re-re-re-negotiation and then another vote in another 9-12 months does nothing for that.
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
Yes and the idea a referendum will take place in six months is for the birds
A new deal has to go through the 27 and the EU commission, then the HOC. The legislation for a referendum will be tortuous and take months then 22 weeks to campaign
2020 will be a dead year and no certainty at the end of it
6 months is hard but nine months is doable. There's no certainty next year with the Johnson deal anyway, we immediately get into the question of the transition and into a very tough FTA negotiation. Only the terminally gullible think that Brexit will get "done" next year. Nobody in the markets thinks it will, I can tell you that.
We’ll be facing the same no deal v extension crisis with a whole bunch of Tories that BigG has helped to elect arguing for no deal.
My question is the same as before. There was a systematic error in polling in 2017 which resulted in the Tory lead being overstated by about 5 points. Was the cause of that error definitely identified and corrected by the pollsters?
If not, we should be saying the lead is perhaps between 6 and 17 points, with two and a half weeks to go. Bearing in mind that last time the lead diminished by about 4 points over the last two and a half weeks of the campaign.
If you agree with such a view then it is not that much of a stretch to say that such control should exist throughout pregnancy.
There are really a range of options:-
1. No abortion at all. 2. Abortion only for a very limited range of reasons. 3. Abortion for a wider range of reasons up to a limit - roughly when the foetus is viable. 4. Abortion on demand up to a certain time limit. 5. Abortion on demand up to a certain early-ish time limit and with medical approval thereafter and possibly only for specific reasons. 6. Abortion on demand throughout pregnancy.
If you want to get rid of the requirement to have any medical approval at all - on the basis that the principle of women having absolute control over their bodies is or should be sancrosanct - then in reality, 4 or 6 are the only options. (And 6 is the most consistent with such a principle.) Note that with both options you are permitting abortions for reasons which people might find distasteful eg because the foetus is a girl.
It is possible that, when formulating the statement in the manifesto, they did not think through the implications of simply saying “let’s decriminalise abortions”. But let’s see.
There is a sort-of clarification here:
A Labour spokesman told the Catholic Herald that there would still be regulation of abortion provision. “Abortion procedures and those performing them must be properly regulated but vulnerable women should be advised and assisted rather than criminalised.”
The spokesman said there would be “wide public consultation on the detail of new laws and regulations.”
The first line of that article is “The Labour Party would decriminalise abortion in Britain, making it legal to have an abortion for any reason up to the birth of a child, a party spokeswoman has confirmed.” But I would like to know if the spokeswoman really did say everything after the words “making it legal......” or if that is just the paper’s interpretation.
If it’s an incorrect interpretation, you’d have thought Labour would have corrected it by now. My guess, FWIW, is that they don’t - and will not - clarify and will leave it to the consultations, hoping that the current statement is enough of a nod and a wink to those who do want total decriminalisation without any limits and sufficiently vague for those who don’t.
Much like many other other policies in fact.......
My question is the same as before. There was a systematic error in polling in 2017 which resulted in the Tory lead being overstated by about 5 points. Was the cause of that error definitely identified and corrected by the pollsters?
If not, we should be saying the lead is perhaps between 6 and 17 points, with two and a half weeks to go. Bearing in mind that last time the lead diminished by about 4 points over the last two and a half weeks of the campaign.
You are conveniently ignoring that the trend is completely different this time.
Last time, the Tories started off nearly 50% in the polls and declined week by week, and fell off a cliff when the announced dementia tax. Labour rose throughout the campaign. There was a clear narrowing of the gap week by week.
This time, the Tories have risen consistently, Labour rose from unrealistic levels of low 20s, but have been stuck at just below 30% for over two weeks now.
Also the supplemental questions are worse for Labour than 2017 and again so far not showing any real trend towards improvement.
Where I think there is a valid concern re the polling is the large Tory vote among working class. It might be true, but I am not confident on that. What would be interesting to know is if that was remodelled, so that Tory vote share was lower, how much that would affect the top line figure.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
It has not really.
In 2015 before the Brexit vote the SNP got 50%, the latest polls after the Brexit vote only have the SNP on about 43%
I think there are people who like independence more than the SNP, probably a growing number. Presumably there is polling on this.
I find that extremely unlikely.
I would agree with poster and also that I doubt there is any polling on it. I vote SNP for two reasons, main one is independence and fact that there is absolutely no sane opposition you could vote for otherwise. They would have no guarantee of my vote after independence if a decent centre right opposition party emerged. I much preferred Alex Salmond's SNP.
SNP support may be polled at 43%, but don't ignore SGreen support (currently polling 4%) which takes it to about 47%. Of course not every vote is Indy based, there are Green and SNP voters who are not pro Indy, but far less proportion - there are 30% Lab voters who say they support Indy.
great post , good to see some unbiased posting on here.
Except for the strange omission of the % of SNP voters who don’t support Indy?
Everybody is getting hung up on the Jezza "neutral stance". The thing that pisses of Leave voters (and increasingly soft Remain) is the delay and uncertainty. People just want it sorted. Labour's policy of re-re-re-negotiation and then another vote in another 9-12 months does nothing for that.
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
Yes and the idea a referendum will take place in six months is for the birds
A new deal has to go through the 27 and the EU commission, then the HOC. The legislation for a referendum will be tortuous and take months then 22 weeks to campaign
2020 will be a dead year and no certainty at the end of it
6 months is hard but nine months is doable. There's no certainty next year with the Johnson deal anyway, we immediately get into the question of the transition and into a very tough FTA negotiation. Only the terminally gullible think that Brexit will get "done" next year. Nobody in the markets thinks it will, I can tell you that.
We’ll be facing the same no deal v extension crisis with a whole bunch of Tories that BigG has helped to elect arguing for no deal.
I don't think you should really credit BigG with so much influence on the result of the election.
Unless you think he is someone well known posting here under a pseudonym.
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
Ah good. And as per our previous exchange here is what I very confidently predict.
Now - Abortion is default illegal but with exceptions defined.
Proposed - Abortion is default legal but with exceptions defined. These exceptions to be similar to those that are NOT exceptions now.
This will be the essence of it.
You may be right. If so you’d have thought that the story in the Catholic Herald would have been very quickly rebutted in just the way you have described in order to avoid people believing that what is apparently said by a Labour Party spokeswoman in the very first line of that article is true.
My question is the same as before. There was a systematic error in polling in 2017 which resulted in the Tory lead being overstated by about 5 points. Was the cause of that error definitely identified and corrected by the pollsters?
If not, we should be saying the lead is perhaps between 6 and 17 points, with two and a half weeks to go. Bearing in mind that last time the lead diminished by about 4 points over the last two and a half weeks of the campaign.
You are conveniently ignoring that the trend is completely different this time.
Last time, the Tories started off nearly 50% in the polls and declined week by week, and fell off a cliff when the announced dementia tax. Labour rose throughout the campaign. There was a clear narrowing of the gap week by week.
This time, the Tories have risen consistently, Labour rose from unrealistic levels of low 20s, but have been stuck at just below 30% for over two weeks now.
Also the supplemental questions are worse for Labour than 2017 and again so far not showing any real trend towards improvement.
Where I think there is a valid concern re the polling is the large Tory vote among working class. It might be true, but I am not confident on that. What would be interesting to know is if that was remodelled, so that Tory vote share was lower, how much that would affect the top line figure.
Tbf we need to reserve judgement until we see the brilliance of Bozo’s manifesto.
The dog is the least stupid living thing in this picture.
They have no Brexit Party candidate in Christchurch.
They'll all be voting Tory.
Lymington consists entirely of retired white men?
They may not be quite so set in their ways as some might wish. In 1993 the Lib Dems won Christchurch in a by-election with more than 62% of the vote. The person elected wasn't even male.
My request to the Labour Party for clarification has been sent to the relevant team and they will reply. I will forward on what I receive.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
Ah good. And as per our previous exchange here is what I very confidently predict.
Now - Abortion is default illegal but with exceptions defined.
Proposed - Abortion is default legal but with exceptions defined. These exceptions to be similar to those that are NOT exceptions now.
This will be the essence of it.
You may be right. If so you’d have thought that the story in the Catholic Herald would have been very quickly rebutted in just the way you have described in order to avoid people believing that what is apparently said by a Labour Party spokeswoman in the very first line of that article is true.
Which is the point really. The only clarification they seem to have issued is the one I quote in the update to the article.
Whatever the moral arguments, such an approach is politically tin eared.It runs the very real risk of alienating those opposed to abortion while not encouraging those in favour of it to vote Labour.
My question is the same as before. There was a systematic error in polling in 2017 which resulted in the Tory lead being overstated by about 5 points. Was the cause of that error definitely identified and corrected by the pollsters?
If not, we should be saying the lead is perhaps between 6 and 17 points, with two and a half weeks to go. Bearing in mind that last time the lead diminished by about 4 points over the last two and a half weeks of the campaign.
You are conveniently ignoring that the trend is completely different this time.
I'm ignoring nothing.
Just cautioning people against blind trust in the polls this time, unless they're satisfied that the systematic error last time has been identified and corrected.
I note that you don't have anything to say about that.
Comments
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-blunkett-labour-corbyn-antisemitism-party-column-a9196091.html
I was taken aback at dinner last night by a lifelong Red Team / Remain voter. Their reaction to Labour approach was unprintable. They just want a MPs to make a decision and now.
https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1197474738274103296?s=21
I accept kinbalu's attempt to suggest otherwise because it is a different question (and I agree that Labour as a party are for Remain regardless), but I don't buy it. Either you believe in following the peoples' decision or you don't, and last time he sought to influence that decision and this time is saying he will stay out of it. Yes, it is a different question, but it is still the same principle of whether to become involved on one side or not. He believes taking a stance is ok, and is choosing not to take one.
Labour's policy of renegotiation and referendum is actually the best on offer, but Corbyn is personally doing contortions around what he would do after that renegotiation (and as kinbalu is also correct to note his stance is not a surprise), but I do not accept it as principled, it is a political fudge he has taken.
It's yet another example of his backers pretending he is not a politician in the same mould as any other, that his fudges and obfuscations are principled and others' are not. Corbyn is a career politician just as capable of acting like any other career politician, and that is what he has done - taken a stance inconsistent with his previous actions and pretending it is a grand principle.
A new deal has to go through the 27 and the EU commission, then the HOC. The legislation for a referendum will be tortuous and take months then 22 weeks to campaign
2020 will be a dead year and no certainty at the end of it
Again, lol.
I believe twitter account WATP1690FTP@Nicolaknew has also been urging every SNP elected member to resign on a daily basis for the last 5 years.
However, if Boris wins the one certainty is that revoke and another referendum are over then those who want to remain need to make their case to rejoin which is the democratic way forward
One real possibility is that the only takeaway is that Jezza is off and that Brexit cost them the election - then they serve up the same manifesto in 2025 minus the Brexit bit.
That must chill the hearts of the moderates who still hang around.
£20 to https://www.erskine.org.uk by the loser? I'm assuming we can both agree that's a worthy cause.
In addition to Brexit, there is like to be a world recession in the next 5 years, the middle class in the western economies haven't been doing as well in past 10 years as over the past 50 years due to the rise of China etc and that will only be squeezed further by technology.
That is fertile ground to try and convince another 10% of the population to give capitalism the boot.
Saying "maybe....maybe not" is not going to win over anybody who has a view about Brexit, for or agin.
But the extent to which the Scots see themselves as Scots and the English as English has increasef in my lifetime. And that, ultimately, is what makes a nation - that it seed itself as one. I also remember a headline in the Scotsman some time before the inyref that support for Scottish independence was somewhat higher in England than in Scotland, at, at the time, about a third.
I would forecast ...... dangerous ...... that Boris gets the majority he needs but by this time next year, commercial matters having gone badly over the summer, he'll be bogged down in discussions over the details of the FTA. He will be blaming his former 'friends and partners' and the Express and Mail will be howling about Europe as 'the enemy'.
Meanwhile there will be significant NHS and Care staff shortages.
My question was to quote the relevant statement on page 48 of the manifesto (in full) and then ask whether this applied throughout the pregnancy i.e. whether there would be any term limits.
Let’s see what reply I get.
My model is arithmetical and has no political opinion or local knowledge. It tries to represent the lumpiness of the vote, the BXP effect, tactical voting etc. The reason why the Tories need such a large lead over Labour to get an overall majority is that they not only need to beat Labour but beat them by over 100 seats to overcome about 100 seats that belong to SNP/LD/PC/Green/NI.
It is possible that bias has crept in my tactical assumptions. I am up front about what they are. I try to validate them by checking with poll data and also check my results against MRP and constituency polls and listen to feedback from PBers.
My aim is not to spin but to provide an objective model. We'll see how well it does on the night.
This is the opposite of what the SNP wants
The Tories are slowly transitioning into a nationalist party for England.
Labour have become irrelevant in Scotland and (overhyped at the moment IMO) are in serious trouble in Wales.
NI has always been different.
That's most of the political support in the country pulling in different directions. It'll pull the country apart in my lifetime. The Genie is out of the bottle and it's not going back in anytime soon.
Give us same for England smartarse, how many special measures, Shipman types down there, I saw one where they were killing mothers and babies for 40 years before doing anything just the other day, and have been several more recently all about things running for 20+ years.
You note the difference with a real government , they take action pronto.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/e0h32a/westminster_voting_intention_con_42_lab_30_ldm_16/
Can anyone verify its authenticity?
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1197879551524843520?s=20
Now about that Jezza neutral stance.
You could not make it up.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results
'YouGov Tracker Voting Intention 2017 to Present'
So YouGov: 21-22 Nov
CON: 42 (-)
LAB: 30 (-)
LD: 16 (+1)
BXP: 3 (-1)
If you agree with such a view then it is not that much of a stretch to say that such control should exist throughout pregnancy.
There are really a range of options:-
1. No abortion at all.
2. Abortion only for a very limited range of reasons.
3. Abortion for a wider range of reasons up to a limit - roughly when the foetus is viable.
4. Abortion on demand up to a certain time limit.
5. Abortion on demand up to a certain early-ish time limit and with medical approval thereafter and possibly only for specific reasons.
6. Abortion on demand throughout pregnancy.
If you want to get rid of the requirement to have any medical approval at all - on the basis that the principle of women having absolute control over their bodies is or should be sancrosanct - then in reality, 4 or 6 are the only options. (And 6 is the most consistent with such a principle.) Note that with both options you are permitting abortions for reasons which people might find distasteful eg because the foetus is a girl.
It is possible that, when formulating the statement in the manifesto, they did not think through the implications of simply saying “let’s decriminalise abortions”. But let’s see.
https://twitter.com/DesmondSwayne/status/1198203820473507841
The dog is the least stupid living thing in this picture.
Edit - Unless somebody has accidentally copy / pasted in preparation for tonight? As I see other links to surveys about best PM etc only have up to the last "public" revealed one.
It’s comfort and security in a fast changing world.
A Labour spokesman told the Catholic Herald that there would still be regulation of abortion provision. “Abortion procedures and those performing them must be properly regulated but vulnerable women should be advised and assisted rather than criminalised.”
The spokesman said there would be “wide public consultation on the detail of new laws and regulations.”
https://catholicherald.co.uk/news/2019/11/21/labour-would-totally-decriminalise-abortion-party-spokeswoman-confirms/
That sounds like a classic non-denial to me.
Of course not every vote is Indy based, there are Green and SNP voters who are not pro Indy, but far less proportion - there are 30% Lab voters who say they support Indy.
Labour abolishing the Marriage Tax allowance only hits the 95% and not the 5%.
That's a £250pa per household impacted.
Last week, the Sunday Times had the Conservatives 17% ahead, so it's less bad news for Labour. But, it's in line with this week's other Yougov polls putting the Conservatives 12% and 14% ahead, so basically, the debate and Labour's manifesto, have failed to move the dial.
What is interesting again it is seems Labour have hit this 30% ceiling and been stuck there for over 2 weeks now. The Tories on the other hand went through 40% and still keep sneaking up.
Of course by 10pm this evening that might all have changed....
Now - Abortion is default illegal but with exceptions defined.
Proposed - Abortion is default legal but with exceptions defined. These exceptions to be similar to those that are NOT exceptions now.
This will be the essence of it.
If not, we should be saying the lead is perhaps between 6 and 17 points, with two and a half weeks to go. Bearing in mind that last time the lead diminished by about 4 points over the last two and a half weeks of the campaign.
If it’s an incorrect interpretation, you’d have thought Labour would have corrected it by now. My guess, FWIW, is that they don’t - and will not - clarify and will leave it to the consultations, hoping that the current statement is enough of a nod and a wink to those who do want total decriminalisation without any limits and sufficiently vague for those who don’t.
Much like many other other policies in fact.......
Last time, the Tories started off nearly 50% in the polls and declined week by week, and fell off a cliff when the announced dementia tax. Labour rose throughout the campaign. There was a clear narrowing of the gap week by week.
This time, the Tories have risen consistently, Labour rose from unrealistic levels of low 20s, but have been stuck at just below 30% for over two weeks now.
Also the supplemental questions are worse for Labour than 2017 and again so far not showing any real trend towards improvement.
Where I think there is a valid concern re the polling is the large Tory vote among working class. It might be true, but I am not confident on that. What would be interesting to know is if that was remodelled, so that Tory vote share was lower, how much that would affect the top line figure.
They'll all be voting Tory.
Unless you think he is someone well known posting here under a pseudonym.
It looks quite thoughtful.
Or just put him down.
Whatever the moral arguments, such an approach is politically tin eared.It runs the very real risk of alienating those opposed to abortion while not encouraging those in favour of it to vote Labour.
As a country we can stomach the racism and support for violence, but the massacre of innocent canines is a no-no.
Just cautioning people against blind trust in the polls this time, unless they're satisfied that the systematic error last time has been identified and corrected.
I note that you don't have anything to say about that.
https://mobile.twitter.com/UKLabour/status/1197968171275358208