Complacency is a real threat to the Tory party...if they perceive they have done it and take their foot off the pedal, the campaign could unravel very quickly and coupled with tactical voting and use of social media (for example whatsapp which I believe the traditional polling will not pick up) we may see some a shock yet. I agree that Labour seem to running the campaign like it is 2017 (or 1983) - I cannot decide, but just cant tell.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
It’s hardly utopia now - new hospitals that can’t open and others in special measures.
I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.
Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.
I doubt that will happen. if CCHQ has any sense, Trump will be told to button it.
Trump could announce that tariffs on Scotch whisky will be lifted after Brexit is done in January.
He wouldn't give away something to be used in the trade deal negotiations. Sadly.
I have greater respect for David Herdson than any other commentator here or elsewhere on the web. Yes - I would say that our views generally co-incide.
Remember it was David who first recognised in 2017 that the Tory campaign was in trouble.
Inevitably I worry about the GOTV stuff - it was dire last time - most of it wasn't delivered - it was vile.
One difference this time - the Tory national campaign sees, at least to me warmer - Boris is a warmer character than Theresa.
Indeed. Although her decision to run such an ultra-EU campaign illustrates the threat Labour thinks it faces in London.
The pretend canvass in the video reminds me of one I actually did as the first canvass of the evening in one of my council elections.
The first house in the street had a Tory poster, and my two companions said "rather you than me!". I thought I'd give it a try; they both went to start across the street. The register for my house showed they had voting age children at home, and I hoped that the poster was only from the parents. The father answered the door, I introduced myself as the defending councillor, and when I pointed to his Tory poster and made a joke of it, he told me he only put it up to wind up his friend across the road, who was a Labour supporter. I said, why not wind him up even more, and put up one of ours instead, since we're likely to win. So he did - there and then!
When my colleagues across the road saw the house now with its orange diamond in the window they were amazed - and of course I just waved and moved on to the next house, and kept my secret. I was able to dine out on the reputation as an ace canvasser thereafter!
Interesting to note even Labour supporters see a hung parliament as an extreme outcome.
Out of curiosity, if Corbyn does get that, even if he’s a long way behind, do you think he will get to stay on?
I always try to divorce my betting view from what I want to happen. Least I'll have some profits to soothe my political angst on Dec 13th.
If Labour restrict the result to Tory minority government I expect Corbyn to still step down, yes, although not immediately. Perhaps a Leadership contest in spring or summer 2020.
Of course. The Labour Party membership is primarily to blame. I mean, fair enough, those Olympic Gold Medal standard idiots like Margaret Beckett and Frank Field who insisted on nominating the Marxist lunatic for leader in the first place started the ball rolling, but it was the members who threw their toys out of the pram after Cameron's 2015 election win and voted him in.
Nonsense. Can't speak for anyone else, but I voted for the leader I liked most, and am doing what I can to help him win. That's my concept of democracy - not doing complicated contortions to find someone who I don't think would be a good PM but possibly might persuade someone else to think so. If we win, fine. If we lose, that's democracy too.
I have greater respect for David Herdson than any other commentator here or elsewhere on the web. Yes - I would say that our views generally co-incide.
Remember it was David who first recognised in 2017 that the Tory campaign was in trouble.
Inevitably I worry about the GOTV stuff - it was dire last time - most of it wasn't delivered - it was vile.
One difference this time - the Tory national campaign sees, at least to me warmer - Boris is a warmer character than Theresa.
Actually it was Rochdale Pioneers who first said that his canvassing experience for Labour didn’t match the headline polling, and that he thought a Labour surge was very possible.
Interesting to note even Labour supporters see a hung parliament as an extreme outcome.
Out of curiosity, if Corbyn does get that, even if he’s a long way behind, do you think he will get to stay on?
I always try to divorce my betting view from what I want to happen. Least I'll have some profits to soothe my political angst on Dec 13th.
If Labour restrict the result to Tory minority government I expect Corbyn to still step down, yes, although not immediately. Perhaps a Leadership contest in spring or summer 2020.
Thanks. But doesn’t that approach come with risks? If there is a minority government there seems a real risk of another election very soon. If Corbyn is still leading in that...
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
I have noted the Orkney and Shetland question. The status is requires to truly screw matters is that of a British Overseas Territory (like Anguilla). My understanding is that a crown dependency status (like Jersey) would create an enclave status for the purpose of territorial waters, but that BOT status would give them greater access to territorial waters (and the oil/gas fields). Perhaps someone with greater knowledge than me could comment?
My view is that UNS is usually broadly right. And the LDs will have added c 7 points to their total from 2017, the conservatives will be roughly flat, while Labour will have lost 10 points or even a little more.
Now, there are libdem seats that are vulnerable: certainly North Norfolk, also Eastbourne, and perhaps Westmoreland too. You could also see the libdems drop a seat or two in Scotland.
But more likely, UNS is broadly right.
The Libdems made big gains in North Norfolk early this year in the locals. That doesn't mesh with them losing the seat. In Scotland, all the signs are that the libdems have gained slightly more than the SNP.
And there are seats like a Richmond Park, which are deepest Remainia, and where the conservative candidate is... Uninspiring.
Ultimately, the near doubling of the libdem vote share has to go somewhere. I think they are unlikely to end up down on the night.
Very constructive response and I concede I only see the LD campaign in Westmorland and Lonsdale and the wider Cumbria. BUT last time the LDs were able to say this is a safe LD seat - don't bother coming out to vote Tory. Very different now and Tim is known for disregarding the views of his electors - very different from 2 yrs ago. Again, it used to be said ( by the great Michael Jopling ) that if there was a Tory majority nationally then the Tory in W&L would get 50% of the vote and vice versa. In 2 of the last 3 elections Tim held on comfortably in W&L and the Jopling criterion was barely met nationally. But with a 1987 majority nationally the Jopling view says no way can W&L not go Tory. It is difficult to disagree - I think if the national situation stays the same James Airey will have a majority of 3,500 to 4,000.
I had a nibble on Con gain Westmorland and Lonsdale last week at 4/1. Can't remember who tipped it on here but I think it's a definite possibility on the night if we're heading for a 1983 or even 1987 style result.
- It's not a "safe" seat any more (Lib dem majority 1.5%) - It's only narrowly remain (53% to 47%) - Seat skews very old (28.3% are 65, 43.7% are 55+)
On the other hand,
- Brexit party are standing this time round (UKIP did not stand in 2017), could cost Tories 2-4%? - If we're heading for a huge con majority nationally, few people will vote tactically to stop Corbyn (Con vote already maxed out?) - Tim Farron no longer party leader so more time to campaign in constituency
I think on balance it is a losing bet but a good value loser at 4/1 and I will be happy if it comes off on the night. Still available at 10/3 on Betfair Sportsbook, 7/2 on Bet365.
It"s not only those earning £80,000 that will pay more tax under Corbyn
Of course. Labour pledge to spend a gazillion pounds all of which is coming from me and corporations. The newsflash is I don't have that kind of cash and the corporations will have moved the small bits of tax they pay over to Dublin
Labour's corporation tax proposal might be good, bad or indifferent but by historical or international comparison, 26 per cent is not exceptional. It is higher than Italy but lower than Germany, for instance.
Other countries aren’t also proposing to confiscate 10% of every company’s shares.
Of course. The Labour Party membership is primarily to blame. I mean, fair enough, those Olympic Gold Medal standard idiots like Margaret Beckett and Frank Field who insisted on nominating the Marxist lunatic for leader in the first place started the ball rolling, but it was the members who threw their toys out of the pram after Cameron's 2015 election win and voted him in.
Nonsense. Can't speak for anyone else, but I voted for the leader I liked most, and am doing what I can to help him win. That's my concept of democracy - not doing complicated contortions to find someone who I don't think would be a good PM but possibly might persuade someone else to think so. If we win, fine. If we lose, that's democracy too.
Great stuff! Don't forget to salute as the ship sinks beneath the waves...
Of course. The Labour Party membership is primarily to blame. I mean, fair enough, those Olympic Gold Medal standard idiots like Margaret Beckett and Frank Field who insisted on nominating the Marxist lunatic for leader in the first place started the ball rolling, but it was the members who threw their toys out of the pram after Cameron's 2015 election win and voted him in.
Nonsense. Can't speak for anyone else, but I voted for the leader I liked most, and am doing what I can to help him win. That's my concept of democracy - not doing complicated contortions to find someone who I don't think would be a good PM but possibly might persuade someone else to think so. If we win, fine. If we lose, that's democracy too.
Very true. Then again, if Pol Pot had been available for the gig and you voted him in because you liked him more than Yvette Cooper, then the consequences ought not to come as a surprise.
Labour can't be an aspiring party of Government whilst simultaneously offering up a niche candidate and platform to the electorate. That's not the behaviour of a serious Opposition. It's the act of a pressure group.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
PS as any ful should kno, an enclave of an another country would have its territorial waters limited.
Breaking: I see the BBC has confirmed the QT audience was weighted by the number of current MPs - so the LibDems actually had hardly any supporters in the room.
Of course. The Labour Party membership is primarily to blame. I mean, fair enough, those Olympic Gold Medal standard idiots like Margaret Beckett and Frank Field who insisted on nominating the Marxist lunatic for leader in the first place started the ball rolling, but it was the members who threw their toys out of the pram after Cameron's 2015 election win and voted him in.
Nonsense. Can't speak for anyone else, but I voted for the leader I liked most, and am doing what I can to help him win. That's my concept of democracy - not doing complicated contortions to find someone who I don't think would be a good PM but possibly might persuade someone else to think so. If we win, fine. If we lose, that's democracy too.
But the likes of Beckett *did* nominate him, despite thinking him unsuitable - and they made the difference The 15% rule was there for a reason.
If Johnson gets a big majority I think I will leave the country in spirit. I will continue to live here, bring up my family, go to work every day, but I will no longer invest any emotional capital in the country's fate. Let the Right own the country they will make in its own image - insular, selfish, angry and resentful. I can't be bothered caring any more.
Snap. It appears that we live in a country that wishes to stand apart from others and is prepared to embrace a person like Boris Johnson as PM.
When MPs abstain in parliament they adopt a neutral position, an honourable tradition. Johnson however has managed to evade a difficult vote by ensuring that he was abroad, not an honourable position.
Does Jeremy Corbyn's stance on Brexit not follow the abstension route?
Last night's Question Time exposed several of the candidates and revealed strengths and weaknesses. The audience was an integral part of the debate and contributed much to the issues discussed.
My guess is a Tory majority of about 20 to 40, I think Labour will still get about 30% of the vote and avoid utter wipeout but nonetheless Boris will get a clear mandate to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn and get the biggest majority for any Tory PM since Thatcher in the 1980s
I still think hubris - with just under three weeks to go - could sink the Tories’ hopes.
I still feel Labour will do better than many expect, the Lib Dems - despite a few surprise victories - will do worse than they have been hoping and the Tories not as well as they think. A hung Parliament is still a possibility.
I absolutely do not want a Corbyn government. But I really worry about how a majority Johnson government will behave given what he tried to do when he did not have a majority.
Massive surge in voter registration yesterday . Over 300,000 . Over two thirds of that was people under 34.
Is that unusual at all though? Younger people are less likely to have been registered already I'd guess so would disproportionately make up numbers of new registrations.
So is it the incredible story you seem to think it is? Do we have comparisons with past elections?
I still think hubris - with just under three weeks to go - could sink the Tories’ hopes.
I still feel Labour will do better than many expect, the Lib Dems - despite a few surprise victories - will do worse than they have been hoping and the Tories not as well as they think. A hung Parliament is still a possibility.
I absolutely do not want a Corbyn government. But I really worry about how a majority Johnson government will behave given what he tried to do when he did not have a majority.
The best outcome is still Tory landslide, but lose Johnson, Gove and Raab.
The chances of the double coming off are however unfortunately very remote.
I have greater respect for David Herdson than any other commentator here or elsewhere on the web. Yes - I would say that our views generally co-incide.
Remember it was David who first recognised in 2017 that the Tory campaign was in trouble.
Inevitably I worry about the GOTV stuff - it was dire last time - most of it wasn't delivered - it was vile.
One difference this time - the Tory national campaign sees, at least to me warmer - Boris is a warmer character than Theresa.
Actually it was Rochdale Pioneers who first said that his canvassing experience for Labour didn’t match the headline polling, and that he thought a Labour surge was very possible.
We all laughed at him. Me included.
Sadly nobody is laughing now - him included.
I'm laughing in different ways. This election is far more complex than 2017. Some musings: 1. 9 years in the Tories are Not Liked. The idea that there is a landslide positive vote out there is for the birds 2. 4 years into Corbyn, Labour are Despised. In places where Labour have been in office since Moses started waving stone tablets about they are shedding not just double digit vote shares but ones with a 2 on the front 3. Brexit and LibDems offer clarity on Brexit but struggling nationally to break through. Locally though? There is plenty of evidence that Brexit are going to scythe off Labour voters and LibDems the same for Tory voters. Not nationwide. But look seat by seat 4. This election is far from over.
In all honesty I can't call this. I started the thread agreeing with David that a Tory landslide is possible. If Labour voters stay home and the nose peg stays in place for one nation Tories he could walk it. At the same time we could see a squeeze where all the anti-Tory opposition coalesces again around Labour and we get another hung parliament.
My instinct is that whilst people are so turned off by both the main parties - and hate/fear Johnson/Corbyn - they are unlikely to surge to Lab/Con regardless of what the headline national polls are saying. Look for regional and local moves. Lab and Con MPs piling up 30k majorities soaks up a lot of national votes but does nothing for their cause in winning a majority. Expect absurd and unlikely results
If Johnson gets a big majority I think I will leave the country in spirit. I will continue to live here, bring up my family, go to work every day, but I will no longer invest any emotional capital in the country's fate. Let the Right own the country they will make in its own image - insular, selfish, angry and resentful. I can't be bothered caring any more.
Snap. It appears that we live in a country that wishes to stand apart from others and is prepared to embrace a person like Boris Johnson as PM.
Ah well.
I’d forgot all about that Labour landslide in 2017.
I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.
Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.
Trump endorsed Boris and Farage about a fortnight ago and it led the news and the Tories vote was untouched as most Leavers give Trump higher ratings than Remainers do anyway.
Plus Trump said the Boris Deal might hinder a US trade deal which also helped Boris with Remainers.
Trump prefers Farage to Boris though Boris to Corbyn
If Johnson gets a big majority I think I will leave the country in spirit. I will continue to live here, bring up my family, go to work every day, but I will no longer invest any emotional capital in the country's fate. Let the Right own the country they will make in its own image - insular, selfish, angry and resentful. I can't be bothered caring any more.
Snap. It appears that we live in a country that wishes to stand apart from others and is prepared to embrace a person like Boris Johnson as PM.
Ah well.
Give people some credit. Given the electoral system we only have two possible choices for Prime Minister. Terror of one doesn't necessarily imply enthusiasm for the other.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
It won't, if Corbyn wins that means indyref2, if Boris wins he will block indyref2 and the Tories will win more Scottish seats than Cameron did in 2015 last time the Tories win a majority
Triumph never made a "magnificent" sports car did they? The GT6 was the only one I can think of that wasn't horribly underpowered and that wasn't exactly a burner compared to the competition. The Stag wasn't a sports car and hardly even qualified as car at all due the unlikelihood of it ever completing a journey under its own power.
SR20 or K24 swapped Spitfire would be fun until you died in a fireball.
Scotchpol trivia, serial list MSP Murdo Fraser used to proudly advertise his Stag ownership on his Twitter bio, but even he's realised that was a bit wanky.
Breaking: I see the BBC has confirmed the QT audience was weighted by the number of current MPs - so the LibDems actually had hardly any supporters in the room.
Do you have a source for that? There seemed to be plenty of Scots Nats in the audience.
I think there's only one game changer left for Labour now.
Donald Trump's visit to the UK just before the election where he unequivocally endorses Boris Johnson, that'll see a circa 4% swing away from the Tories.
I would not be surprised if officials beg him not to say anything, but he wont be able to help himself. Even if he does not spontaneously say so, he will be asked and he will blurt it out with the grace and subtlety of a blue whale in a trench coat.
Breaking: I see the BBC has confirmed the QT audience was weighted by the number of current MPs - so the LibDems actually had hardly any supporters in the room.
Do you have a source for that? There seemed to be plenty of Scots Nats in the audience.
The Nats explained by the SNPs tranche of MPs.
Although at first sight it seems an odd decision, it makes sense for the BBC. They don't have to worry about polls and the potential arguments about when and which to choose. They can ignore the BXP and don't have to go searching for a slug of UKIP voters. And the Tory/Labour shares are roughly in balance.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
At least she is loud and proud about it...Tom Brake in Car and Wallington isnt even mentioning Brexit because he is scared about leave voters who voted for him last time being scared off..and he is the lib Dem remainer in Chief
Breaking: I see the BBC has confirmed the QT audience was weighted by the number of current MPs - so the LibDems actually had hardly any supporters in the room.
Do you have a source for that? There seemed to be plenty of Scots Nats in the audience.
The Nats explained by the SNPs tranche of MPs.
Although at first sight it seems an odd decision, it makes sense for the BBC. They don't have to worry about polls and the potential arguments about when and which to choose. They can ignore the BXP and don't have to go searching for a slug of UKIP voters. And the Tory/Labour shares are roughly in balance.
It also means the LibDems were over-represented, since half their MPs were not elected as such, although of course, it all depends what you deem to be fair representation.
I have greater respect for David Herdson than any other commentator here or elsewhere on the web. Yes - I would say that our views generally co-incide.
Remember it was David who first recognised in 2017 that the Tory campaign was in trouble.
Inevitably I worry about the GOTV stuff - it was dire last time - most of it wasn't delivered - it was vile.
One difference this time - the Tory national campaign sees, at least to me warmer - Boris is a warmer character than Theresa.
Actually it was Rochdale Pioneers who first said that his canvassing experience for Labour didn’t match the headline polling, and that he thought a Labour surge was very possible.
We all laughed at him. Me included.
Sadly nobody is laughing now - him included.
I'm laughing in different ways. This election is far more complex than 2017. Some musings: 1. 9 years in the Tories are Not Liked. The idea that there is a landslide positive vote out there is for the birds 2. 4 years into Corbyn, Labour are Despised. In places where Labour have been in office since Moses started waving stone tablets about they are shedding not just double digit vote shares but ones with a 2 on the front 3. Brexit and LibDems offer clarity on Brexit but struggling nationally to break through. Locally though? There is plenty of evidence that Brexit are going to scythe off Labour voters and LibDems the same for Tory voters. Not nationwide. But look seat by seat 4. This election is far from over.
In all honesty I can't call this. I started the thread agreeing with David that a Tory landslide is possible. If Labour voters stay home and the nose peg stays in place for one nation Tories he could walk it. At the same time we could see a squeeze where all the anti-Tory opposition coalesces again around Labour and we get another hung parliament.
My instinct is that whilst people are so turned off by both the main parties - and hate/fear Johnson/Corbyn - they are unlikely to surge to Lab/Con regardless of what the headline national polls are saying. Look for regional and local moves. Lab and Con MPs piling up 30k majorities soaks up a lot of national votes but does nothing for their cause in winning a majority. Expect absurd and unlikely results
The sadness is that an absurd result is looking ever less unlikely.
1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.
Labour members have to take a hell of a lot of the blame. This election has shown just how poor a candidate Johnson is. But the lying cretin waving the Union Jack will always beat the lying cretin burning it.
If there is a tory landslide the labour membership will Indeed need to take a long hard look at itself, as either the things they wanted through the leaders they wanted are not what the public wants, or the leaders they chose were too crap to persuade the public.
If the membership would prefer to wail and wallow, will any mps dare tell them it's time to change?
Of course. The Labour Party membership is primarily to blame. I mean, fair enough, those Olympic Gold Medal standard idiots like Margaret Beckett and Frank Field who insisted on nominating the Marxist lunatic for leader in the first place started the ball rolling, but it was the members who threw their toys out of the pram after Cameron's 2015 election win and voted him in.
Nonsense. Can't speak for anyone else, but I voted for the leader I liked most, and am doing what I can to help him win. That's my concept of democracy - not doing complicated contortions to find someone who I don't think would be a good PM but possibly might persuade someone else to think so. If we win, fine. If we lose, that's democracy too.
Very true. Then again, if Pol Pot had been available for the gig and you voted him in because you liked him more than Yvette Cooper, then the consequences ought not to come as a surprise.
Labour can't be an aspiring party of Government whilst simultaneously offering up a niche candidate and platform to the electorate. That's not the behaviour of a serious Opposition. It's the act of a pressure group.
Mentioning Yvette Cooper, she is a very prominent Remainer in a very Leave seat. Now I don't expect her to lose but it could be closer than many expect. I don't have any on-the-ground knowledge though other than (as with many other Labour seats) the Tory candidate was only very recently and not very fairly selected
Odds on a Tory majority have lengthened from 1.53 to 1.57 i.e. 64% probability of any kind of Tory majority.
Currently 1.55
Currently 1.56-1.57
It’s 1.55, I’m looking straight at it now. It briefly went 1.56 this morning, not sure where you’re getting the 1.57 from?
Betfair. I'm looking at it now. 157-1.58
Perhaps you're looking at NOM rather than Tory majority?
Nope looking at Tory majority. Clearly I’m not the only one who thinks you’re looking at the wrong odds. I have grave concerns about your model suggesting a Tory majority is touch and go with a double digit polling lead (although I appreciate the effort). I do wonder if you’re projecting what you want to happen rather than what will happen. It also concerns me that your Betfair is incorrect, you appear to be looking at odds for ‘next government’ rather than ‘majority’.
I still think hubris - with just under three weeks to go - could sink the Tories’ hopes.
I still feel Labour will do better than many expect, the Lib Dems - despite a few surprise victories - will do worse than they have been hoping and the Tories not as well as they think. A hung Parliament is still a possibility.
I absolutely do not want a Corbyn government. But I really worry about how a majority Johnson government will behave given what he tried to do when he did not have a majority.
I don’t think we can really predict. It depends on how much his actions when he didn’t have a majority we’re directly a result of the Parliamentary position he was in.
1983 has been on the cards for some time. The country is screwed.
Labour members have to take a hell of a lot of the blame. This election has shown just how poor a candidate Johnson is. But the lying cretin waving the Union Jack will always beat the lying cretin burning it.
If there is a tory landslide the labour membership will Indeed need to take a long hard look at itself, as either the things they wanted through the leaders they wanted are not what the public wants, or the leaders they chose were too crap to persuade the public.
If the membership would prefer to wail and wallow, will any mps dare tell them it's time to change?
I disagree. Could be both.
But I see no Theresa May or Francis Maude to tell Labour some hard truths it does not wish to hear.
I think Labour might win the smallest number of seats for a party coming second since 1935, and possibly 1931.
Worth remembering, though, that even if Labour only win 150 seats, the Tory majority could be restricted to under 150 if the Labour collapse leads to more than 100 seats held by other parties - say 40 SNP, 25 NI/Others, 35 Lib Dems (currently looks optimistic, but if a Labour collapse is on it could happen).
It's at least as plausible as another Lazarus act from Corbyn clawing their way back to a hung Parliament.
At least she is loud and proud about it...Tom Brake in Car and Wallington isnt even mentioning Brexit because he is scared about leave voters who voted for him last time being scared off..and he is the lib Dem remainer in Chief
Remain is not really an option anymore, is it? So what's the point of such a poster? Even if Labour win and there’s a referendum on their new deal, who’s going to campaign for Remain? The Lib Dems: yes. But not the Labour leadership and not the Tories and not Farage and co. So why would Remain be anymore successful than last time?
It"s not only those earning £80,000 that will pay more tax under Corbyn
Of course. Labour pledge to spend a gazillion pounds all of which is coming from me and corporations. The newsflash is I don't have that kind of cash and the corporations will have moved the small bits of tax they pay over to Dublin
Labour's corporation tax proposal might be good, bad or indifferent but by historical or international comparison, 26 per cent is not exceptional. It is higher than Italy but lower than Germany, for instance.
However, as commented by the IFS, a big difference in the claimed proposal is that a far larger fraction of Govt income would be coming from Corporates wrt individuals compared to similar Euro countries.
My prediction is that they would eat the Golden Goose as the starter, then have no eggs laid for the main course.
But it was an awesome example to use of why politicians should not deny damaging stories when I was teaching about Richard III’s attempted incest with his niece.
Of course. The Labour Party membership is primarily to blame. I mean, fair enough, those Olympic Gold Medal standard idiots like Margaret Beckett and Frank Field who insisted on nominating the Marxist lunatic for leader in the first place started the ball rolling, but it was the members who threw their toys out of the pram after Cameron's 2015 election win and voted him in.
Nonsense. Can't speak for anyone else, but I voted for the leader I liked most, and am doing what I can to help him win. That's my concept of democracy - not doing complicated contortions to find someone who I don't think would be a good PM but possibly might persuade someone else to think so. If we win, fine. If we lose, that's democracy too.
I suspect if the tories win a lot of people will not be so gracious. As in 2015 a lot of sudden pr converts will declare it a democratic outrage.
***** Betting Post ***** The recent "massive surge" in voter registration made me wonder whether we might see a higher than anticipated overall turnout on 12 December, weather permitting of course. A visit to Oddschecker showed the following odds as being the best currently available:
Backing the 65% - 70% band with two thirds of one's stake and the 70 - 75% band with the remaining one third of one's stake, both with Betfred at the odds indicated above, would result in overall winning odds of 5/6 or 1.833 decimal, should either band prove successful.
Turnout in the UK (incl N.I.) for the previous three General Elections has been: 2010 .... 65.1% 2015 .... 66.2% 2017 .... 68.8%
The increases above might, at least in part result from the increase in the percentage of those opting to vote by post over recent years. This percentage over the past three general Elections has been: 2010 ..... 15.3% 2015 ......16.4% 2017 ..... 18.0% Will the figure reach 20% this time?
I still think hubris - with just under three weeks to go - could sink the Tories’ hopes.
I still feel Labour will do better than many expect, the Lib Dems - despite a few surprise victories - will do worse than they have been hoping and the Tories not as well as they think. A hung Parliament is still a possibility.
I absolutely do not want a Corbyn government. But I really worry about how a majority Johnson government will behave given what he tried to do when he did not have a majority.
I don’t think we can really predict. It depends on how much his actions when he didn’t have a majority we’re directly a result of the Parliamentary position he was in.
Possibly. But he may well feel emboldened and there will be plenty in his party encouraging him to take advantage of his majority. The Tories seem to have lost respect for democracy’s institutions. That - and a large majority - is a dangerous combination.
***** Betting Post ***** The recent "massive surge" in voter registration made me wonder whether we might see a higher than anticipated overall turnout on 12 December, weather permitting of course. A visit to Oddschecker showed the following odds as being the best currently available:
Backing the 65% - 70% band with two thirds of one's stake and the 70 - 75% band with the remaining one third of one's stake, both with Betfred at the odds indicated above, would result in overall winning odds of 5/6 or 1.833 decimal, should either band prove successful.
Turnout in the UK (incl N.I.) for the previous three General Elections has been: 2010 .... 65.1% 2015 .... 66.2% 2017 .... 68.8%
The increases above might, at least in part result from the increase in the percentage of those opting to vote by post over recent years. This percentage over the past three general Elections has been: 2010 ..... 15.3% 2015 ......16.4% 2017 ..... 18.0% Will the figure reach 20% this time?
As ever, DYOR
You might just as easily argue that a drive to sign up lots of people with low propensity to vote could reduce the final turnout?
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
My postal vote arrived today. Shall I wait for the Tory manifesto before deciding?
Nah.
The non-arrival of the Conservative manifesto (last week, this weekend, next week) must be intentional, but why? What is CCHQ up to?
Nothing sinister about it - last time the manifesto saw a big negative reaction, so they are delaying it as long as they can so anything bad in it (and they wont know what will be seen as bad) has less time to have effect .
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
Just a guess, but I would work on a quarter straight away, a quarter during the later part of the campaign, a quarter at the last minute or (increasingly) handed in on the day, and a quarter not at all. Edit/ or 15% for that last. The non-return percentage is higher at non-general elections
That's the SNP's main problem summarised in a tweet. If the Scottish Government could provide all those (very largely middle class) freebies, like relief from tuition fees, prescription charges and social care costs, *AND* balance the budget then the 2014 referendum would most likely have had a different result and Scotland would already be independent by now.
But it can't, which leaves all the swing voters to imagine what goodies they will have to do without and/or how much more they'll be made to cough up in tax. That much said...
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.
The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
It would be a big surprise if the SNP were to more-or-less tread water as @rcs1000 suggests. In fact, if SLAB survive this with 3 or 4 of their little collection of MPs intact and SCON actually advance it'll be utterly astonishing.
As far as the remainder of that prediction goes, I wish I could be that optimistic about the prospects for Labour getting a shellacking, but I'm still very worried that a lot more of the automatons are going to end up obeying their homing signals and Labour will be back up to 35% by polling day. The Lib Dem seat prediction is roughly in accordance with my own expectations, but I fancy they might be down to about 12% nationwide.
It is garbage anyway, the deficit is due to the London UK budget , it si NOT a Scottish budget. If Scotland was independent and was not lumbered with all the dross of Trident , subsiding London infrastructure, military spending , etc , etc , etc it would not have a deficit anywhere near what the UK fake numbers claim it is. The tame medias and state propaganda unit just feed out scare stories and the mugs are taken in. Given the worst pensions and living standards in Europe is what they have now , how do these idiots think it would be any worse outside the UK. Brainwashed morons caused the failure in 2014. There will be SNP gains this time and it is only a matter of time till next referendum. Despite sad arsehole Scottish exports like Carlotta and her ilk badmouthing Scotland at every cut and turn.
At least she is loud and proud about it...Tom Brake in Car and Wallington isnt even mentioning Brexit because he is scared about leave voters who voted for him last time being scared off..and he is the lib Dem remainer in Chief
Remain is not really an option anymore, is it? So what's the point of such a poster? Even if Labour win and there’s a referendum on their new deal, who’s going to campaign for Remain? The Lib Dems: yes. But not the Labour leadership and not the Tories and not Farage and co. So why would Remain be anymore successful than last time?
Because who will campaign for the labour deal? Virtually no one in labour and anyone else will do so with nil enthusiasm.
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
If you want to bet on a landslide, probably the simplest way is to buy on the spreads. What’s the lowest number of seats realistically you could now imagine the Conservatives getting? You can buy the Conservatives at 345 on Sporting Index and 346 on Spreadex.
I bought the Conservatives at a lower level (around the 327 mark) and I’m holding that for now. I’m not topping up.
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
Around half within 48 hours IIRC, 35% straggling in gradually thereafter to make up 85%, as you say. I don't know if most places have issued them already but if so, I'd think a fair chunk will have been sent before people digest the Tory manifesto. They presumably feel that's a good thing, in case people don't like something in it.
That's the SNP's main problem summarised in a tweet. If the Scottish Government could provide all those (very largely middle class) freebies, like relief from tuition fees, prescription charges and social care costs, *AND* balance the budget then the 2014 referendum would most likely have had a different result and Scotland would already be independent by now.
But it can't, which leaves all the swing voters to imagine what goodies they will have to do without and/or how much more they'll be made to cough up in tax. That much said...
The LDs will get 15%. Jo Swinson will boast of almost doubling her party's vote share. But it will mostly just result in a load of second places. 19-23 seats.
The Labour Party will lose 60 seats to the Conservatives. They will also lose half their Scottish seats to the SNP. It won't be a total meltdown, but it won't be pretty.
And the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110.
It would be a big surprise if the SNP were to more-or-less tread water as @rcs1000 suggests. In fact, if SLAB survive this with 3 or 4 of their little collection of MPs intact and SCON actually advance it'll be utterly astonishing.
As far as the remainder of that prediction goes, I wish I could be that optimistic about the prospects for Labour getting a shellacking, but I'm still very worried that a lot more of the automatons are going to end up obeying their homing signals and Labour will be back up to 35% by polling day. The Lib Dem seat prediction is roughly in accordance with my own expectations, but I fancy they might be down to about 12% nationwide.
It is garbage anyway, the deficit is due to the London UK budget , it si NOT a Scottish budget. If Scotland was independent and was not lumbered with all the dross of Trident , subsiding London infrastructure, military spending , etc , etc , etc it would not have a deficit anywhere near what the UK fake numbers claim it is. The tame medias and state propaganda unit just feed out scare stories and the mugs are taken in. Given the worst pensions and living standards in Europe is what they have now , how do these idiots think it would be any worse outside the UK. Brainwashed morons caused the failure in 2014. There will be SNP gains this time and it is only a matter of time till next referendum. Despite sad arsehole Scottish exports like Carlotta and her ilk badmouthing Scotland at every cut and turn.
Re drinking game on Election Results Night - a shot when a former party leader loses.
Farron, Miliband, May, Duncan Smith, all former leaders standing again. Harman was technically also leader. Can’t think of any more.
Are you including current leaders too?
Margaret Beckett.
I'm in her seat and from the facebook ads I'm getting from the local tory/brexit parties you'd think that they believe that they can actually take it. She's got a health majority though
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
The manic glee with which Yoons utter phrases like 'Scotland would be fecked!' will always be their Achilles' heel.
They are complete and utter nutjobs, they hate Scotland and teh thought that they will not be able to lord it over us for much longer. That post is just unbelievable, a lunatic could not have done better explaining the mindset of your average lickspittle Scottish unionist.
Re drinking game on Election Results Night - a shot when a former party leader loses.
Farron, Miliband, May, Duncan Smith, all former leaders standing again. Harman was technically also leader. Can’t think of any more.
Are you including current leaders too?
Margaret Beckett.
I'm in her seat and from the facebook ads I'm getting from the local tory/brexit parties you'd think that they believe that they can actually take it. She's got a health majority though
Although I am not Margaret Beckett’s biggest fan - the fiasco of the RPA bites long and deep - she is a distinguished public servant. It would be rather sad if her career ended in electoral defeat.
However, she would rather have brought it on herself by nominating Corbyn.
At least she is loud and proud about it...Tom Brake in Car and Wallington isnt even mentioning Brexit because he is scared about leave voters who voted for him last time being scared off..and he is the lib Dem remainer in Chief
Remain is not really an option anymore, is it? So what's the point of such a poster? Even if Labour win and there’s a referendum on their new deal, who’s going to campaign for Remain? The Lib Dems: yes. But not the Labour leadership and not the Tories and not Farage and co. So why would Remain be anymore successful than last time?
Because who will campaign for the labour deal? Virtually no one in labour and anyone else will do so with nil enthusiasm.
The whole thing would be a farce in my opinion and bring down the Labour coalition government. They’d be trying to hold a national referendum without an option that the 52% want. Even those campaigning for Remain would find it weird as literally no one sticks up for Corbyn’s ludicrous deal. I just don’t see how it could play out successfully for them.
Of course. The Labour Party membership is primarily to blame. I mean, fair enough, those Olympic Gold Medal standard idiots like Margaret Beckett and Frank Field who insisted on nominating the Marxist lunatic for leader in the first place started the ball rolling, but it was the members who threw their toys out of the pram after Cameron's 2015 election win and voted him in.
Nonsense. Can't speak for anyone else, but I voted for the leader I liked most, and am doing what I can to help him win. That's my concept of democracy - not doing complicated contortions to find someone who I don't think would be a good PM but possibly might persuade someone else to think so. If we win, fine. If we lose, that's democracy too.
But the likes of Beckett *did* nominate him, despite thinking him unsuitable - and they made the difference The 15% rule was there for a reason.
Yes, and I believe it would only be fair if she lost her seat as a result of his leadership. Sadly, I suspect she won't.
On topic, Survation out today and taken yesterday and Thursday has an 8.5% swing from Labour to the Tories in the North West, above the national average of about 4%. That would be enough for the Tories to take Burnley where they need a 7.88% swing to win.
How regularly do parties update their lists of voters on the electoral register? I seem to have been sent a Libdem leaflet at my old address (I know the new occupier) despite having de/re-registered a couple of months ago.
At least she is loud and proud about it...Tom Brake in Car and Wallington isnt even mentioning Brexit because he is scared about leave voters who voted for him last time being scared off..and he is the lib Dem remainer in Chief
Remain is not really an option anymore, is it? So what's the point of such a poster? Even if Labour win and there’s a referendum on their new deal, who’s going to campaign for Remain? The Lib Dems: yes. But not the Labour leadership and not the Tories and not Farage and co. So why would Remain be anymore successful than last time?
Because who will campaign for the labour deal? Virtually no one in labour and anyone else will do so with nil enthusiasm.
The whole thing would be a farce in my opinion and bring down the Labour coalition government. They’d be trying to hold a national referendum without an option that the 52% want. Even those campaigning for Remain would find it weird as literally no one sticks up for Corbyn’s ludicrous deal. I just don’t see how it could play out successfully for them.
If the LDs do hold any sway they should say a ref is needed immediately and remain up against the may deal, refuse to back corbyn if he wants time to get a sham negotiation.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I expect the SCons to hold almost all their seats.
I don't think that matters from a Scottish independence point of view. A year or two of Tory triumphalism and WTO Brexit at the end of next year will push the Scots over the edge. The SNP will be very well placed for the next Holyrood elections, especially if Labour and the Lib Dems are in a demoralised state. Although I don't live in Scotland any more so this is not on the ground analysis.
Not sure - NS standing down, Glasgow council corruption, the father of Indy up in court, public services going down the toilet, no Brexit arguments - the Scots are getting fed up of the SNP.
What bollox , every one of your suggestions are just unionist fantasies. The original poster is spot on , the clock is ticking faster and faster. They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
Re drinking game on Election Results Night - a shot when a former party leader loses.
Farron, Miliband, May, Duncan Smith, all former leaders standing again. Harman was technically also leader. Can’t think of any more.
Are you including current leaders too?
Margaret Beckett.
I'm in her seat and from the facebook ads I'm getting from the local tory/brexit parties you'd think that they believe that they can actually take it. She's got a health majority though
Although I am not Margaret Beckett’s biggest fan - the fiasco of the RPA bites long and deep - she is a distinguished public servant. It would be rather sad if her career ended in electoral defeat.
However, she would rather have brought it on herself by nominating Corbyn.
I still doubt that it'd happen though. in 2017 she had a 24.8% majority which was her largest since the heady days of Tony Blair. If she did lose it'd be a massive shock. you can get 11/2 on the Tories in Derby South at the moment which I don't think matches the actual probabilities.
On topic I sure the polls are wrong. The gap stays big, or even if it closes up, it’s wrong. I am even sure the exit poll will be miles out. The key theme from this election, the main part of the election where undecided make their mind up is over now, is it’s a crap choice and have to hold nose and choose lesser of evils, so there will be lots of shyness around. Lots and lots of shyness. Lots and lots about not admitting what privately went on in that booth.
However, in terms of placing a sure bet in this confusion, there is something that played in Australia shock result and will play here, where with devolved power those in power in that area unpopular. Such as wales, where labour have had their troubles. Plaid and Tories and BREX will do well in Wales, and the Tories should spend much of the remaining weeks telling voters the problems in London such as knife crime is Khan and Labour’s fault, because the Tories will get a good London result through that route.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
Oh god.
The Orkney keeps the oil card.
Such a classic. I missed it.
If Orkney votes to become an independent nation, seperate of Scotland and rUK they keep the oil as it will be in their territorial waters, they will be astronomically rich and alone. If Orkney decides to remain part of the UK then they are an island enclave, they get their 12 mile territorial waters and that's it.
How regularly do parties update their lists of voters on the electoral register? I seem to have been sent a Libdem leaflet at my old address (I know the new occupier) despite having de/re-registered a couple of months ago.
It depends how organised they are. Nowadays it is done electronically, and councils will on request email agents a monthly update, normally a few weeks after the end of the month. Then you're relying on local parties running the update routine. If there isn't an election on the horizon they might only run the update once a year when the new register comes out, or alternatively store up the monthly updates and then run a batch at the same time.
There is also of course a time delay between the mailing being prepared and your actually receiving it, as the party will have printed out the addresses before stuffing (if enveloped) and bundling the delivery, with then a further delay whether volunteer delivered or passed to the Royal Mail.
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
After the election if the CWU have anything to do with it.
Royal Mail have won a High Court court injunction blocking a CWU strike before Christmas and can thus sack any CWU worker who goes on strike within the law
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
I don't really buy this. Brexit and the Tories make nats angry, and likely to call for independence. But that's already what they are, and do. Nats gonna nat. In reality Brexit makes leaving the UK more awkward, and less sellable. That's the only definite outcome of it.
Brexit has certainly broadened the audience for independence. I used to be a Unionist, no more (although I don't have a vote I know plenty of Scottish residents who have had a similar conversion). Brexit is basically Scotland being pissed on from a great height.
A Tory landslide might be v good for democracy. It might force the Labour party to get rid of its really nasty people like Milne Corbyn and Mcdonnell among others and move towards the centre They will never won win with a hard left manifesto.
A Tory landslide might be v good for democracy. It might force the Labour party to grt rid of iits really nasty people loke Milne Corbyn and Mcdonnel among others and move towards the centre They will never won win wiyh a hard keft manifesto.
It could just as easily push them further to the left.
The total number of postal votes issued for the general election was 8.4 million, representing 18.0% of all electors. This compares with 16.4% in 2015 and 15.3% in 2010.
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
After the election if the CWU have anything to do with it.
Royal Mail have won a High Court court injunction blocking a CWU strike before Christmas and can thus sack any CWU worker who goes on strike within the law
So, if they strike, they can all be sacked. That will be such a huge help in getting the mail delivered.
It's not my baseline but it's certainly a plausible scenario. Only upside for me personally will be it will turbocharge Scottish independence, followed by me getting my EU passport back.
Don't be so sure. Once the UK leaves the EU, Spain will be able to veto any attempt by Scotland to rejoin because of the ongoing problems in Catalonia. They will not forget scenes of SNP run buildings flying the Catalan flag during the mini-uprising a couple of years ago. In addition unless all Scottish imports come directly from mainland Europe or via Ireland, there will be customs documents at Dover etc and then again at Berwick.
Finally and this is the HUGE one, there is a growing feeling in Orkney and Shetland that if Scotland votes for independence, they will elect to remain part of a confederated United Kingdom, becoming the Channel Islands of the north. Almost all the oil and gas fields would like in Orcadian and Shetland territorial waters so it wouldnt be Scotland's oil and Scotland would be fecked!
There are a few hurdles before Scottish rejoin, but Spanish veto wont be one of them. Why do Brexiters always seem mistakenly to think someone in the EU is going to play a veto?
Comments
Remember it was David who first recognised in 2017 that the Tory campaign was in trouble.
Inevitably I worry about the GOTV stuff - it was dire last time - most of it wasn't delivered - it was vile.
One difference this time - the Tory national campaign sees, at least to me warmer - Boris is a warmer character than Theresa.
The pretend canvass in the video reminds me of one I actually did as the first canvass of the evening in one of my council elections.
The first house in the street had a Tory poster, and my two companions said "rather you than me!". I thought I'd give it a try; they both went to start across the street. The register for my house showed they had voting age children at home, and I hoped that the poster was only from the parents. The father answered the door, I introduced myself as the defending councillor, and when I pointed to his Tory poster and made a joke of it, he told me he only put it up to wind up his friend across the road, who was a Labour supporter. I said, why not wind him up even more, and put up one of ours instead, since we're likely to win. So he did - there and then!
When my colleagues across the road saw the house now with its orange diamond in the window they were amazed - and of course I just waved and moved on to the next house, and kept my secret. I was able to dine out on the reputation as an ace canvasser thereafter!
If Labour restrict the result to Tory minority government I expect Corbyn to still step down, yes, although not immediately. Perhaps a Leadership contest in spring or summer 2020.
We all laughed at him. Me included.
Sadly nobody is laughing now - him included.
- It's not a "safe" seat any more (Lib dem majority 1.5%)
- It's only narrowly remain (53% to 47%)
- Seat skews very old (28.3% are 65, 43.7% are 55+)
On the other hand,
- Brexit party are standing this time round (UKIP did not stand in 2017), could cost Tories 2-4%?
- If we're heading for a huge con majority nationally, few people will vote tactically to stop Corbyn (Con vote already maxed out?)
- Tim Farron no longer party leader so more time to campaign in constituency
I think on balance it is a losing bet but a good value loser at 4/1 and I will be happy if it comes off on the night. Still available at 10/3 on Betfair Sportsbook, 7/2 on Bet365.
Labour can't be an aspiring party of Government whilst simultaneously offering up a niche candidate and platform to the electorate. That's not the behaviour of a serious Opposition. It's the act of a pressure group.
Ah well.
Does Jeremy Corbyn's stance on Brexit not follow the abstension route?
Last night's Question Time exposed several of the candidates and revealed strengths and weaknesses. The audience was an integral part of the debate and contributed much to the issues discussed.
Nah.
That’s the problem your mob have.
I still feel Labour will do better than many expect, the Lib Dems - despite a few surprise victories - will do worse than they have been hoping and the Tories not as well as they think. A hung Parliament is still a possibility.
I absolutely do not want a Corbyn government. But I really worry about how a majority Johnson government will behave given what he tried to do when he did not have a majority.
So is it the incredible story you seem to think it is? Do we have comparisons with past elections?
The chances of the double coming off are however unfortunately very remote.
Perhaps you're looking at NOM rather than Tory majority?
1. 9 years in the Tories are Not Liked. The idea that there is a landslide positive vote out there is for the birds
2. 4 years into Corbyn, Labour are Despised. In places where Labour have been in office since Moses started waving stone tablets about they are shedding not just double digit vote shares but ones with a 2 on the front
3. Brexit and LibDems offer clarity on Brexit but struggling nationally to break through. Locally though? There is plenty of evidence that Brexit are going to scythe off Labour voters and LibDems the same for Tory voters. Not nationwide. But look seat by seat
4. This election is far from over.
In all honesty I can't call this. I started the thread agreeing with David that a Tory landslide is possible. If Labour voters stay home and the nose peg stays in place for one nation Tories he could walk it. At the same time we could see a squeeze where all the anti-Tory opposition coalesces again around Labour and we get another hung parliament.
My instinct is that whilst people are so turned off by both the main parties - and hate/fear Johnson/Corbyn - they are unlikely to surge to Lab/Con regardless of what the headline national polls are saying. Look for regional and local moves. Lab and Con MPs piling up 30k majorities soaks up a lot of national votes but does nothing for their cause in winning a majority. Expect absurd and unlikely results
Plus Trump said the Boris Deal might hinder a US trade deal which also helped Boris with Remainers.
Trump prefers Farage to Boris though Boris to Corbyn
Although at first sight it seems an odd decision, it makes sense for the BBC. They don't have to worry about polls and the potential arguments about when and which to choose. They can ignore the BXP and don't have to go searching for a slug of UKIP voters. And the Tory/Labour shares are roughly in balance.
If the membership would prefer to wail and wallow, will any mps dare tell them it's time to change?
But I see no Theresa May or Francis Maude to tell Labour some hard truths it does not wish to hear.
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197953834745815042?s=20
Are you including current leaders too?
Worth remembering, though, that even if Labour only win 150 seats, the Tory majority could be restricted to under 150 if the Labour collapse leads to more than 100 seats held by other parties - say 40 SNP, 25 NI/Others, 35 Lib Dems (currently looks optimistic, but if a Labour collapse is on it could happen).
It's at least as plausible as another Lazarus act from Corbyn clawing their way back to a hung Parliament.
My prediction is that they would eat the Golden Goose as the starter, then have no eggs laid for the main course.
It still hasn’t tailed off.
But it was an awesome example to use of why politicians should not deny damaging stories when I was teaching about Richard III’s attempted incest with his niece.
Morning all
***** Betting Post *****
The recent "massive surge" in voter registration made me wonder whether we might see a higher than anticipated overall turnout on 12 December, weather permitting of course.
A visit to Oddschecker showed the following odds as being the best currently available:
65% - 70% ....... 2.75 Betfred
60% - 65% ....... 3.50 Unibet
70% - 75% ....... 5.50 Betfred
<60% .............. 9.00 Unibet
>75% ............ 17.00 Betfred
Backing the 65% - 70% band with two thirds of one's stake and the 70 - 75% band with the remaining one third of one's stake, both with Betfred at the odds indicated above, would result in overall winning odds of 5/6 or 1.833 decimal, should either band prove successful.
Turnout in the UK (incl N.I.) for the previous three General Elections has been:
2010 .... 65.1%
2015 .... 66.2%
2017 .... 68.8%
The increases above might, at least in part result from the increase in the percentage of those opting to vote by post over recent years. This percentage over the past three general Elections has been:
2010 ..... 15.3%
2015 ......16.4%
2017 ..... 18.0%
Will the figure reach 20% this time?
As ever, DYOR
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds the turnout among ‘in person’ voters: this year, 85.1% postal electors used their postal vote compared with 65.9% who turned up to vote in person.
Postal votes accounted for 21.6% of all votes included at the count. This compares with 20.5% in 2015 and 18.8% in 2009.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/uk-general-elections/results-and-turnout-2017-uk-general-election
Postal votes, how quickly are they returned?
Despite sad arsehole Scottish exports like Carlotta and her ilk badmouthing Scotland at every cut and turn.
I bought the Conservatives at a lower level (around the 327 mark) and I’m holding that for now. I’m not topping up.
However, she would rather have brought it on herself by nominating Corbyn.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716641/Tories-win-30-seats-Labours-northern-heartland.html
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
https://twitter.com/west_brom/status/1197961188220514304
They are so fed up with SNP that they keep winning more and more seats at every election. Wishful thinking on the grandest of scales.
I sure the polls are wrong. The gap stays big, or even if it closes up, it’s wrong. I am even sure the exit poll will be miles out. The key theme from this election, the main part of the election where undecided make their mind up is over now, is it’s a crap choice and have to hold nose and choose lesser of evils, so there will be lots of shyness around. Lots and lots of shyness. Lots and lots about not admitting what privately went on in that booth.
However, in terms of placing a sure bet in this confusion, there is something that played in Australia shock result and will play here, where with devolved power those in power in that area unpopular. Such as wales, where labour have had their troubles. Plaid and Tories and BREX will do well in Wales, and the Tories should spend much of the remaining weeks telling voters the problems in London such as knife crime is Khan and Labour’s fault, because the Tories will get a good London result through that route.
The Orkney keeps the oil card.
Such a classic. I missed it.
If Orkney votes to become an independent nation, seperate of Scotland and rUK they keep the oil as it will be in their territorial waters, they will be astronomically rich and alone. If Orkney decides to remain part of the UK then they are an island enclave, they get their 12 mile territorial waters and that's it.
There is also of course a time delay between the mailing being prepared and your actually receiving it, as the party will have printed out the addresses before stuffing (if enveloped) and bundling the delivery, with then a further delay whether volunteer delivered or passed to the Royal Mail.
They will never won win with a hard left manifesto.